Remarks on the Social Costs of Long-Term Unemployment in Poland

Jerzy Kitowski

Remarks on the Social Costs of

Long-Term Unemployment in Poland

Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska. Sectio H, Oeconomia 28, 61-70

A N N A L E S

U N I V E R S I T A T I S M A R I A E C U R I E - S K Ł O D O W S K A L U B L I N — P O L O N I A

VOL. X X V III, 5 SECTIO H 1994

Z a k ł a d A n a liz y i M e to d R a c h u n k u E k o n o m ic z n e g o W y d z i a łu E k o n o m ic z n e g o F i l i i U M C S w R z e s z o w ie

J e r z y K I T O W S K I

Remarks on the Social Costs of Long-Term Unem ploym ent in Poland

U w a g i o sp o łeczn y ch k osztach d łu g o trw a łeg o bezrobocia w P o lsc e

IN TRO DU CTO R Y R EM A R K S

The m ain thesis of th e p resen t p ap er can be form ulated in th e following w ay : T h ere is no painless tran sitio n from a com m anding- -d istrib u tiv e econom y to a m ark e t economy. H ow ever, th ere exists a key problem of w h e th e r th e social costs of this tran sfo rm atio n had to be so high.

The m ain economic d ifficu lties of th e p rese n t period include 1:

a) a low er n atio nal incom e p er one citizen as com pared w ith the situation 20 years ago,

b) enorm ous and spontaneous rise of unem ploym ent, c) a grow ing b u d get deficit and a tw o -fig u re inflation, d) progressing d ecapitalization of th e production property, e) unfavo u rab le s tru c tu re of investm ents and production, f) exceptionally lim ited building of dw elling houses, g) lack of an efficien t m echanism of th e capital allocation.

These d ifficulties are term ed by E. L ukaw er as a ’’B erm uda trian g le” w hich is m ark ed b y : b u d g et deficit — inflation — reoession.

The basis of th e system tran sfo rm atio n caried o u t in o u r country, especially of m ark etizatio n of th e economy, w as provided b y th e program w orked o u t by L. Balcerowicz. In its p rin cip al outline, this program w as p resented to th e P a rlia m e n t a t th e beginning of O ctober 1989, and it was 1 E. L u k a w e r : K ilk a u w a g o p o d sta w a ch p o lity k i ek o n om iczn ej i sy tu a cji gospodarczej k raju [W:] C zynniki i b ariery rozw oju rejo n ó w p rzygran icznych (ed. J. K itow sk i, Z. Z ioło. K ra k ó w —R zeszó w 1993.

62 Jerzy K itow sk i

passed in the form of a body of 11 acts in th e second half of D ecem ber of th e same year.

To m ake the p ictu re clear, it should be also added th a t this p ro gram was closely linked w ith th e p rem ises of th e In te rn a tio n a l C u rren cy F u n d . These can be expressed sym bolically in th e form of so-called ’’five d e ’s” : denationalization, deregulation, dem onopolization, deflation and d e­

valuation.

It was a serious carelessness, o r even lig ht-m ind edn ess w hich took place w hen this program was introduced (1 Ja n u a ry , 1990), to an nounce v Ti8t kind of social costs w ould have to be borne. In com parison w ith 1989, th e in d u strial production w as to drop b y 5%, th e n ational incom e by 3.1% and th e consum ption by 1%, w hile unem plo y m en t w as supposed to reach th e level of 400,000 people. H ow ever, a t th e sam e tim e it w as em phasized th a t some anim ation should be felt as soon as a fte r h alf a year. Obviously, th a t prognosis w as by no m ean likely to be c a rrie d out.

A SY NTH ETIC C H A R A C TER IZA TIO N OF U N E M PLO Y M EN T IN P O L A N D In J a n u a ry 1990, job agencies recorded n e a rly 56,000 u n em ployed people. In Ju n e of th a t year, this figure grew alm ost 10 tim es, w hile in D ecem ber — 20 tim es. In D ecem ber 1991, th e u n em p loy m ent ra te increased alm ost 40 tim es, in the n e x t year — 45 tim es, and in S ep tem b er 1993 — m ore th an 50 tim es (Tab. 1).

The g reatest nu m b er of group dism issals (607,000) fell on S ep tem b er 1992, w hile the high est proportion of this form of red uctio ns in th e n um b er of th e unem ployed occurred in M ay 1992 — on th e average, ev ery fo u rth unem ployed person lost his job follow ing a group dism issal.

5% u nem ploym ent rate (in relation to th e n u m b er of professionally active people) w as achieved in S eptem ber 1990, 10% — a y e a r late r, and 15% ra te in Ju ly 1993 (in relatio n to th e to ta l population professionally active, and n o t to th e civil population professionally active — fo r th e y e a r 1992, th e C en tral S ta tistica l Office considered th is socio-proiessional group).

In S eptem ber 1993, th e n u m b er of th e unem ployed w as 2,830,000, w hich gave th e u n em p lo y m en t ra te of 15.1%. T his m eans th a t on th e average, every professionally active person w as le ft w ith o u t w ork. M ost of th e unem ployed w ere w om en (53%). T he p ro po rtio n of those w ho had not ever been em ployed y e t am ong th e new ly registered unem ployed people was 21.2%. The unem ployed lost th e ir jobs d ue to group dism is­ sals, who co n stitu ted 12.5% of th e to ta l n u m b e r of th e n ew ly re g iste re d unem ployed. In S ep tem ber 1993, those w ho w e re em ployed prev iou sly

R em arks on th e Social C osts of Long-T erm .., ₆₃

Tab. 1. T he u n em p lo y m en t reg istered in job agen cies and th e u n em p loym en t rate in P olan d in th e years 1990— 1993

B ezrobotni za rejestro w a n i w b iu rach pracy oraz stopa bezrobocia w P o lsce w latach 1990— 1993

‘Y ears

The situ a tio n at th e end of th e m onth ,M arch June S ep tem b er D ecem b er

T he u n em p lo y m en it rate a in % 1990 266,6 568,2 926,4 1 126,1 19911 a 3122,1 1 574,1 1 970,9 2 155i,6 1992 2 216,4 2 296,7 2 498t,5 2 509», 3 1993 2 648,7 2 701,8 2 830,0 — T he u n em p loym en t rate a in % 1990 1,5 3,1 5,0 Q.1 1991 7,1 8,4 10,5 11,4 I992b 12,1 12,6 13,6 13,6 1993 14,2 14,5 15,1 —

a) In % of th e p ro fessio n a lly a ctiv e population. b) In % of th e c iv il p op u lation p ro fessio n a lly active.

S ources: 1) U n em p lo y m en t in P olan d 1st— 3rd 1991, C en tral S ta tistic a l O ffice, W ar­ sa w 1991, pp. 4, 6.

2) U n em p lo y m en t in P olan d , 1st— 3rd quarters 1993, C entral S ta tistica l O ffice, W arsaw 1993, pp. 8, 19.

co n stituted 76% of th e to tal n u m b er of th e unem ployed. For 60% of the em ployed, the public sector w as th e last place of em ploym ent, fo r 44% — it was in d u stry and building trad e, w hile for n early 10% — ag ric u ltu re and forestry.

D espite considerable m ethodological divergencies, it is w o rth following th e form ation of th e un em ploym ent ra te in Poland again st th e background oi the situ a tio n in th e countries of th e E uropean Common M arket 2. In 1990, th e m ean y early ra te of unem ploym ent in Poland w as only 3.4%, w hile in Spain and Irelan d it w as n early 5 tim es bigger, and in Italy, France, Belgium and H olland it' was alm ost 3 tim es as big. In 1991, the m ean y early ra te of unem ploym ent w as already as high as 9.2% (in De­ cem ber — 11.8%; o n th e average, every n in th professionaly active person w as n o t employed), w hile G reat B ritain, w hich occupied th e 5th place in Europe, had th e u n em p lo y m en t ra te of 9.4%. In 1992, th e unem ploym ent ra te of 13.6% (according to th e state at th e end of Decem ber) alread y placed us on th e th ird position (following Spain and Ireland). We outpaced G re a t B ritain by tw o p ercen t point, and France — by three. We also m ain tain ed th e th ird position — according to th e discussed com parison — in S eptem ber 1993.

2 U n em p lo y m en t in P olan d 1st— 3rd quarters, C entral S ta tistic a l O ffice, W arsaw 1993, p. 7.

64 Jerzy K ito w sk i

It should be em phasized th a t in the m iddle of th a t y e a r in 13 provinces, the unem ploym ent ra te w as h ig h er th a n 20% (the level of unem p lo y m en t in Spain), including five (Koszalin, Suw ałki, Olsztyn, Elbląg and Słupsk regions) w ith th e unem p lo ym ent ra te h ig her th an 25%, w hich m eans th a t on the average, ev ery fo u rth professionally active person w as left w ith ­ ou t a job.

It seems in terestin g to com pare th e n u m b er of th e unem ployed w ith the nu m b er of th e people em ployed in th e n atio n al sector besides in­ dividual farm ing. The C entral S tatistical Office shows an o th er inconsi­ stency, because they do no t provide th e unem p loy m ent ra te constructed in such a way.

It follows from th e accessible d ata (according to the state a t th e end of D ecem ber 1992) th a t th e discussed rate of unem ploym ent' w as 21% (which m eans th a t on th e average ev ery fifth person w orking outside individual farm ing w as left w ith o u t a job). To give a com parison — th e rate of 21% corresponds to th e classical ra te of unem plo ym en t (in De­ cem ber 1992) of 13.6%. In as m an y as 16 provinces, th e un em p loy m en t rate (in relation to th e nu m b er of th e people em ployed outside agricultu re) is h ig her th a t 30%, w hich m eans th a t ev ery th ird perso n w o rkin g in the n ational econom y of these provinces had no w ork. An especially dram atic situation in this respect is to be found in th re e regions (Su­ wałki, Ciechanów and Łomża provinces), w h ere n early every second person w orking outside individual farm in g w as left w ith o u t a job.

Some consideration should be given to th e stru c tu re of unem p loy m ent iji Poland. According to th e d ata of the 3rd q u a rte r of 1993, n early

2/3 of th e to tal n u m b er of th e unem ployed w as m ade up of young people,

not older th a n 34 y e a rs of age, including 36% m ade up of th e people younger th an 24 years of age.

. The g rea test n u m b er of th e unem ployed is form ed by th e g radu ates from the vocational schools — 39%. G rad uates from universities eo n stitu tę 2% of th e unem ployed.

, In 6. provinces, app ro x im ately every fo u rth unem ployed person lost his job following group dism issals.

The active form s of helping th e unem ployed is v ery poor. In S eptem ­ b er 1993, th e nu m b er of th e unem ployed tra in e d in new professions w as only 8,000 (0.3% Qf th e n u m b er of th e unem ployed). 50,000 (1.8%) people w ere . em ployed a t in terv en tio n w ork, and a lm o s t, 46,000 (1.6%) of the unem ployed a t the w ork for public purposes.

The proof of th e stabilization of th e s tru c tu ra l un em ploym en t is a decreasing p roportion of th e people on th e dole. In D ecem ber 1991, this ra te was 79%, in D ecem ber 1992 — } 52.3%, w hile in S eptem ber 1993 — 45.5%. In as m an y as 9 provinces, m ore th a n 50% of th e unem ployed

R em arks on th e S ocial C osts of L ong-T erm .., ₆₅ did not receive th e un em p lo y m en t benefit, and in tw o of these — Łódź and Szczecin regions, this figure w as 60%.

In th e th ird q u a rte r of 1993, n early 45% of th e unem ployed had been left w ith o u t a job fo r m ore th a n 12 m onths. According to th e term inology of th e In te rn a tio n a l L abour O rganisation, this phenom enon is called lon g-term unem p lo ym ent.3 It should be added th a t in certain countries th e period of staying w ith o u t a job w ith in th e category of long-term unem ploy m en t is m uch sh o rte r for th e unem ployed people aged 18—24 (for exam ple, in Sw eden it is 4 m onths and in G reat B ritain 6 m onths). To give a com parison, in D ecem ber 1992, th e corresponding ra te of long- -te rm unem p lo y m en t in 7 countries of th e E uropean Common M arket w as over 50% (in Ita ly and B elgium it w as m ore th a n 70%), w hile in Sw eden it w as less th a n 5%. H ow ever, one should rem em b er th a t these

are not fu lly com parable d a ta 4.

ECONOMIC IN ST R U M E N T S OF FIG H T IN G A G A IN S T LO N G -TERM U NEM PLO Y M EN T IN SOME EU R O PE A N C O U N TR IES

]t is com m only agreed th a t th e m ost effective form of fighting against long -term un em p loy m en t is m otivating th e em ployers to engage the w orkers from th e long-term unem ploy m en t group.

To give an exam ple, according to the decisions of th e G erm an ’’Round Table of Social R esponsibility”, the m ajo r in stru m e n t of influencing the Jong-term u n em ploy m en t in th e period of tw o y ears (Ju ly 1989— J u ly 1991) w ere subventions to th e salaries. Those subventions w ere paid to th e em ployers and th ey w ere 80% of th e salaries du rin g th e firs t 6 m onths and 60% d u rin g th e following m onths in th e situ ation w hen th e em ployed people had n o t had a job for at least 3 years. The rate s for th e em ployers w ho engaged those w ho had n o t w orked fo r 2 to 3 y ears w ere respectively 70% and 50%, w h ile fo r those w ho em ployed th e people staying w ith o u t a job fo r 1 to 2 years those rate s w ere 60% and 40%.

In France, a system of a ’’co n tract of re tu rn to w o rk ” has been fun ctio ning since 1989. According to this system , th e em ployer is freed from th e social in surance prem ium fo r his w ork ers for th e period of 9 m onths if he em ploys long-term unem ployed people. If he employs a person stayin g w ith o u t a job for m ore th a n 3 years, he is ex em p t from th is d u ty fo r a t least as long as 18 m onths, and w h en th e unem ployed p erson is m ore th a n 50 years old, this p ecu liar abolition goes as fa r as 3 G. G ę s i c k a : D ł u g o t e r m i n o w e bezrobocie . „R ynek P r a c y ” 1992, 11/12, p. 9. « Ibid., p p . 24— 27.

66 Jerzy K itow sk i

th e pensionary period of th e people from th e long -term unem p lo y m ent group.

In Holland, th e em ployer engaging th e discussed category of th e u n - em ployed does not pay any insurance rates fo r th e period of 4 years. Besides, he can receive subsidies in ord er to m ake up for th e costs of tra in in g th e unem ployed.

In D enm ark, th e em ployers receive 9-m onths’ subsidies if th ey engage a person younger th a n 25 years of age w ho has been unem ployed fo r a t least 12 m onths, o r a person older th an 25 years of age w ho has been unem ployed fo r a t least 2 and a half years.

E arlier pensions should be included am ong th e in stru m en ts allow ing fo r a relativ ely g entle w ay of ’’w ith d ra w in g ” c e rtain social and pro­ fessional categories from th e w ork m ark e t and fo r avoiding th e ir com ­ p etitio n for the existing jobs. In this respect, th e E uropean countries have d iffe re n t experiences. For exam ple, in F rance in th e years 1983— 1988, people w ho had been professionally active so fa r and w ho m ade v a c an t places for younger people o r th e ones w ho had been le ft w ith o u t a job fo r longer th an tw o years, w ere en titled to a re tire m e n t ea rlie r by tw o years. In this case, th e system of e a rlie r pensions is an in stru m e n t of activization and not ’’w ith d ra w a l” of th e lon g-term unem p loy m ent group. Likewise, th e ea rlie r pensions in G erm any and G re a t B ritain p e r­ form ed such activating functions.

This in stru m e n t functioning in d iffe re n t periods in A ustria, Belgium , D en m ark an d F inland had a com pletely d iffe re n t character. T here, the statu s of an e a rlie r pensioner w as given to th e unem ployed w ho had been le ft w ith o u t a job fo r a long period. T he additio nal conditions w ere len g th of em ploym ent, age, th e n u m b er of y e a rs left to reach the re tire m e n t age, etc. In those countries, th e long -term unem p loy m en t group w as th en th e category ’’w ith d ra w n ” for good by m eans of ea rlie r pensions.

W hile discussing th e problem of ea rlie r retire m e n t, one should re ­ m em ber ab o u t th e dem ographic conditions of th e w o rk resources of the c o u n try in th e n e a re st years. In th e period b etw een 1996 and 2000, the increase of th e w ork resources of m en w ill be 460,000 p e o p le 5 (in the y ears 1991— 1995 it w ill be 390,000). W ithin th is figure, th e in crease of th e w ork resources of th e age of 45 years and m ore w ill be 530,000. T he increase of w om en’s lab o ur resources w ill be 340,000 (the increase of th e lab ou r resources of th e age of 45 year-old people and o lder w ill be 440,000).

5 P la n p ersp ek ty w iczn y do 2000 roku. C zęść I. R ozw ój sp ołeczn o-gosp od arczy i p o lity k a stru k tu raln a. W arszaw a 1988, pp. 32— 34.

R em arks on th e S ocial C osts of Long-T erm .., ₆₇ THE SO C IA L EFFECTS OF LO NG -TERM UNEM PLO YM EN T

The causes of long-term unem ploym ent are of s tru c tu ra l character. They do n ot resu lt from individual w eaknesses o r fau lts of the people from th e lo ng-term unem ploym ent group. The m ost fre q u e n t processes causing th e stru c tu ra l effect in the form of long-term unem ploym ent include th e follow ing :

a) radical changes in th e s tru c tu re of production and services resulting in a drop of th e dem and for non-qualified and poorly qualified labo ur force,

b) the educational system in ad equ ate to th e needs of the economy and adm inistration,

c) dem ographic p e rtu rb atio n , for exam ple dem ographic explosions usually resu ltin g in th e u n em ploym ent of young people,

d) shortcom ings of th e b en efit system , for exam ple relativ ely too high benefits in relation to th e salaries, and lack of control of w h eth er th e person receiving th e b e n e fit is really unem ployed,

e) break-dow n of th e local labo u r m arkets.

The tw o basic form s of th e effects of long-term unem ploym ent are distinguished 6:

1) Effects of long-term unem ploym ent for an individual

— professional — w ith tim e, long-term unem ploym ent causes con­ siderable lim itation of th e efforts of looking for a job. Besides, one observes th a t th e w illingness for changing a job o r raising qualifications

drop down.

— psychological — deterioratio n of th e pictu re of oneself, low ering the v ita lity and activity, decrease of aspirations, th e feeling of isolation and being on the m argin of society.

— refe rrin g to h ealth — th e studies conducted in som e countries of the E uropean Com m on M arket showed a considerable inclination of th e unem ployed (as com pared w ith the employed) to fall ill w ith h e a rt diseases, circu lato ry and digestive disorders, neurosis and m ental illnesses. A grim statistic of th e increase of the of the suicide ra te in Poland seems to confirm this thesis. The studies conducted in F rance on a group of 800,000 unem ployed people showed an exceedingly big d e a th -ra te of the m en w ho had ever been unem ployed.

2) Social effects of long-term u n em ploym ent

— unused, non-pro d uctiv e p o ten tial of hu m an labo ur (the social loss 6 A v ery clear cla ssific a tio n of th e social costs of lo n g -term u n em p loym en t is provided in th e w ork by G ę s i c k a : op. cit., pp. 15, 17.

68 Jerzy K ito w sk i

due to this is especially high w hen long-term unem ploym ent refers to young people),

— high social and bud get costs of m ain tainin g these people as w ell as th e in stitu tion s dealing w ith th e unem ployed (benefits, social care, m edical treatm en t, etc.),

— p auperization of th e long-term un em p loy m en t group, w hich is followed by consequences for th e unem ployed them selves and fo r th eir fam ilies. P auperization of th e long-term un em p loy m en t group has also its effects on th e m ark e t (low er dem and), w hich are especially w ell visible in th e regions of big concentration of unem ploym ent,

— social isolation of th e unem ployed w hich can take a m ass dim ension (districts inhab ited by the unem ployed, collapsing tow ns and regions),

— th e th re a t of social pathologies. One should also rem em b er th a t concentrations of th e long-term u n em ploym en t can provide th e base for th e radical political m ovem ents (results of recen t elections confirm this thesis),

— a peculiar social effect of long-term unem p loy m ent is stren g th en in g th e stereo ty pe of an unem ployed person as being g u ilty for his situation, resourceless, having problem s w ith keeping his psychical ’’n o rm a lity ” . Such a stereoty p e is especially dangerous w hen it functions among the em ployers and th e in stitu tio n s dealing w ith th e unem ployed.

F IN A L R E M A R xK S A N D C O N C L U SIO N S

Realization of em ploym ent is a lo n g -term process and it cannot be treated as a goal in itself, b u t it m u st follow from com plex actions whose purpose is to im prove th e efficiency of m anaging. These actions should be su pported by th e in stru m en ts of th e s ta te ’s interventio nism in the necessary degree. A spontaneous increase of unem p lo ym ent in Poland follows from , for explam ple, an excessive co ncentration of th e sta te on th e antiin flation program , w hen no clear economic and spatial policies have been w orked out.

The economic policy of th e state above req uires the following lon- -term -activ ities:

a) anim ation of th e economic grow th and th e process of re stru c tu rin g the economy, w ith p ro -e x p o rt priorities,

b) w orking o u t and introducing th e m icro-econom ic policy, including industrial and a g rarian policies,

c) w orking o u t th e c riteria and principles of th e strategic role of the state in the conditions of m a rk e t economy,

R em arks on th e Social C osts of Long-T erm .., ₆₉ d) supporting those form s of privatization w hich stir up th e potential of enterprise, increase th e efficiency of m an agem ent and th e desired changes of th e economic stru ctu re,

e) passing from th e p rese n t policy of a positive p ercen t rate to the policy of lo w -in te re st credit, periodically valorized according to th e actual

rate of inflation.

Finally, it should b e em phasized th a t one can observe in th e biblio­ graphy an u n d esirable m an n er of being fascinated w ith th e solutions referrin g to fig h tin g against th e effects of unem ploy m ent in th e countries w ith developed m ark e t economy. Exam ples of the solutions w hich have been given h ere should be tre a te d only as a kind of insp iration for our studies and th ey can n o t be d irectly refe rre d to incom parable socio- -econom ic conditions.

To give an exam ple, th e m any expectations associated w ith th e de­ velopm ent of sm all en terp rise in Poland include th e creation of new places of em ploym ent and, following this, redu ction or a t least h am pering th e rising unem ploym ent. The experiences of th e countries w ith developed m ark et economy show th a t th ese expectations can be justified.

On th e basis of th e inq u ires am ong th e unem ployed in the eastern fro n tie r region, one can fo rm u late th e follow ing general conclusion s7. Only 15% of th e respondents showed th e ir in te re st in u n d ertak in g th e ir own {which should be em phasized) economic activity. W ithin this num ber, only a h alf declared th e ir in ten tio n to do it in th e n e a re st fu tu re, and only 3% of th ese had precise plans. M ore th an 80% of th e unem ployed keeps a distance from u n d ertak in g th e ir ow n economic activity. H alf of th e exam ined people stated clearly th a t th ey could not see any chance for them selves and th ey w ere not going to u n d ertak e anything.

How ever, one m u st rem em b er th a t as follows from th e generalization of nearly 200 program s of fighting u n e m p lo y m e n t8 (in the w hole world), th e y are v e ry expensive and th e y are financed by th e c e n tral budg et (up to 20% of th e bu d g et expenses). Those program s re fe r to th e economy (e.g. great pro g ram s of in te rv en tio n w ork and prom otin g sm all business w ith th e g o v ern m en t’s cred it w arran ties) and deactivation of th e popula­ tion. The m ax im um effect of such activities is abo ut 4— 8% decrease of

unem ploym ent.

7 A. K o p c z u k : W łasn a działaln ość gospodarcza jak o form a w y jśc ia z sytu acji bezrobotnego (na p rzyk ład zie w oj. b iałostock iego). „R ynek P ra cy ” 1992, 6, pp, 27— \2.

8 I. W o l i ń s k a , A. W o ź n i a k o w s k i : S em in aria n au k o w e w IP iS S . „ P o li­ ty k a S p o łeczn a ” 1990, 10, p. 34.

70 Jerzy K ito w sk i S T R E S Z C Z E N I E

G łów n ą tezę artyk u łu m ożna sp row ad zić do n astęp u ją ceg o sform u łow an ia: nie ma b ezb olesn ego przejścia od gospodarki n a k a zo w o -ro zd zielczej do gosp od ark i r y n ­ k o w e j. Istn ieje n atom iast k lu czo w y problem — czy sp o łeczn e k oszty tej tra n sfo r­ m a cji m u sia ły być aż tak w y so k ie?

S p ołeczn e koszty u ry n k o w ien ia p olsk iej gospodarki (w ed łu g program u L. B a l­ cerow icza) p rzew id y w a ły , obok 5% spadku produkcji p rzem y sło w ej, spadku dochodu narod ow ego o 3,1% oraz obniżenia się k on su m pcji o 1%, p o ja w ien ie się na rynku pracy blisk o 400 tys. b ezrobotnych, przy czym , jak o p ty m isty czn ie zakładano, o ż y ­ w ie n ie pow inno rozpocząć się już po u p ły w ie p o ło w y roku. T y m czasem w styczn iu 1990 r. za rejestrow an o blisk o 56 tys. b ezrobotnych, w czerw cu tego roku liczba ta w zro sła ponad 10-krotnie, a w grudniu b lisko 40-k rotn ie, w rok później — 45 razv, a w e w rześn iu 1993 r. — ponad 50-k rotn ie (średnio co siódm a osoba czynna z a w o ­ d o w o pozostaw ała bez pracy).

W artyk u le, obok sy n tety czn ej ch a ra k tery sty k i bezrobocia w P o lsce, om ów iono ek on om iczn e in stru m en ty w a lk i z d łu g o term in o w y m bezrobociem w w y b ra n y ch k ra ­ jach eu rop ejsk ich , dokonano k la sy fik a cji sp ołeczn ych sk u tk ó w d łu g o term in o w eg o bezrobocia oraz k ry ty czn ie oceniono dostrzeganą w k rajow ej literatu rze przedm iotu m a n ierę fa scy n o w a n ia się rozw iązan iam i w zak resie w a lk i ze sk u tk a m i bezrobocia w krajach o rozw in iętej gospodarce ry n k o w ej (nie m ożna ich odnosić w prost ao n ie p o r ó w n y w a ln y c h w a ru n k ó w sp ołeczn o -ek o n o m iczn y ch w P olsce).