A C T A U N I V E R S I T A T I S L O D Z I E N S I S FO LIA OECONOM ICA 17, 1982
A n d r z e j Miciński *
FACTORS DETERM IN IN G CO -O PER A TIO N BETW EEN SOME SO CIA LIST CO UN TRIES IN PRODU CTIO N AND TRADE IN
T EX TILE AND CLOTH IN G P R O D U C T S 1
R esearches conducted in th e In stitu te of M ark etin g of th e Łódź U ni-v e rsity encom pass also a w ide ran g e of problem s concerning tex tile in d u stries of P oland, Czechoslovakia, th e GRD, and H u n g a ry as w ell as the in te rn a tio n a l tra d e exchange b etw een these co u n tries in th e field of tex tile and clothing products. The rese a rc h e s a re focussed on m u tu a l co-operation b etw een th e above m entioned countries.
T hey a re based on th e follow ing assum ptions:
1. The four co u n tries e ith e r b o rd er upon one a n o th e r or a re situ ated v e ry n e a r to one another.
2. Each of these co u n tries possesses rich tra d itio n s in th e duscussed fields of a c tiv ity and all these co u n tries are e x p o rte rs of te x tile and clothing products.
3. A lthough C zechoslovakia and th e GDR re p re s e n t a h ig h er level of economic developm ent th a n th e rem ain in g tw o countries. (Poland and H ungary), these d ifferences do not c o n stitu te a b a rrie r in prom otion of lab o u r division in th e a re a in question.
4. Trade exchange in te x tile p ro ducts b etw een these co u ntries is r a th e r insignificant.
5. The s tru c tu re of su p p ly of tex tile and clothing p ro ducts in th e ir hom e m ark e ts is poorly diversified in rela tio n to developed countries.
In all th e four co u ntries th e re can be observed a phenom enon of th e p ro d u ce r’s m onopoly, w hich leads to a situ a tio n in w hich th e su p p ly of consum er goods is larg ely d eterm in ed by th e p ro d u c e r’s p referen ces and
* M.Ec., I n s titu te of M arketing, U n iv ersity of Łódź (Poland).
1 T his p a p e r m akes a la rg e fra g m e n t of a r e p o rt on rese arch e s w h ich h a v e been conducted for sev eral y ea rs by a re se a rc h te am in th e C h a ir of F oreign T ra d e Econom ics, In s titu te of M arketing, Łódź U niv ersity . T h e re se a rc h te a m is d irec ted b y P rof. dr. P aw eł G likm an.
not by dem and. S im u ltaneously th e re are tre n d s to w ards a u ta rk ic sa-tisfaction of th e dom estic m a rk e t needs; th ere is m issing in te rn atio n a l specialization and co-operation in this field.
It can be undo u b ted ly sta te d th a t developm ent of specialization and all o th e r form s of co-operation b etw een co u n tries in th e discussed field c reates an o p p o rtu n ity of considerable e n ric h m e n t of th e m ark e t, acce-lera tio n of products ro tatio n , creatio n of th e im p o rt p ressu re m aking it possible to e x e rt some p ressu re on hom e producers. E qually a ttra c tiv e seem s to be a possibility of consolidating a position of these co u ntries as e x p o rte rs of te x tile s to th ird m ark e ts th ro u g h deepening of m u tu a l co-operation and specialization.
A gainst th is background of assum ptions m ade and rese a rc h theses th e re arises a fu n d am e n ta l question — w h y did th e discussed countries fail to em ploy reserv es to be found in economic in te g ratio n as reg a rd s te x tile industries?
T his question gains a grow ing significance today w hen th e four coun-trie s aim at increasing effectiveness of th e ir economic perform ance. A long w ith th e grow ing w elfare of th e ir populations it becom es n e-c essary to e-cre a te th e so-e-called good m a rk e t of e-consum er produe-cts. I t is, how ever, h a rd ly possible to c re a te such a m a rk e t in conditions of a u ta rk y , drive to w ard s satisfactio n of dom estic needs w ith in each coun-try sep arately . It is a n a p p a re n t p aradox th a t despite considerable possi-bilities of expanding tra d e b etw een th e co u ntries in question, these coun-trie s w ere often em ploying im p o rt from developed m a rk e t econom y co u ntries to en rich th e a sso rtm e n t of goods in th e ir m ark ets. In th e si-tu a tio n of pay m en ts im balance th e possibilities of exp an d in g th is im port ap p e ar to be r a th e r doubtful.
In th e co n te x t of th e above m entioned factors, w hich, on one hand, is ch aracterized by a grow ing dem and p ressu re on e n ric h m e n t of th e do-m estic do-m a rk e t for consudo-m er goods, and — on th e o th e r one — by lack of possibilities of exp an d in g th e ir im p o rt from th e h a rd c u rre n c y zone, th ere arises an u rg e n t need for com prehensive developm ent and prom o-tion of co-operao-tion b etw een Poland, Czechoslovakia, th e GDR, and H ungary.
T his cooperation seem s to h ave been h ith e rto h a m p ered by a n u m -b e r of -b a rrie rs from am ong w hich we m ight — h y p o th etic a lly — list th e follow ing:
— lack of know ledge about economic effects of specialization or sceptical a ttitu d e to feasibility of th ese effects (there exist h e re some p sy -chological b a rrie r w hich consists also in th e fact th a t fea r from an increased risk involved by co-operation m ay u n d erm in e th e an tic ip a ted benefits);
— in su fficien t (although d istin ctly grow ing) p re ssu re of th e dom estic m a rk e t re su ltin g am ong o th ers from absence of th e m a rk e tin g o rie n ta -tion;
— poor a ttra c tiv e n e ss of reciprocal deliveries a n d /o r lack of equal possibilities on th e p a rt of p a rtic u la r p a rtn e rs; it m u st re s u lt fro m secondary im portance a ttrib u te d to the m u tu a l tra d e exchange; th is p h e -nom enon becomes m ore pronounced a t a tim e of p ay m en ts tensions w ith th e co u n tries from the h a rd c u rre n c y zone;
— absence of system s m echanism s inducing econom ic u n its to p a r -tic ip a te in in te rn a tio n a l co-operation and specialization;
— lack of new , a ttra c tiv e form s in te g ra tin g cooperation in p ro -duction and tra d e in consum er goods, including te x tile and clothing products (this goes also fo r th e sp h ere of settlem en ts);
— absence of form s of com m on policy and jo in t co-ordination of operations in th ird m ark ets.
A nalysis of possibilities of expanding co-operation w as sta rte d w ith factors d e te rm in in g it. A s ta rtin g point a t th is stage w as provided by a com parative analysis of the p re se n t situ a tio n in th e fo u r exam ined co u n tries (analysis com prised h e re p roductive factors, production, effec-tiveness ratios, foreign trade). In f u rth e r stages of research es th e re w as also m ade an a tte m p t a t defining th e im pact of th e w idely understood in te rn atio n a l en v iro n m en t and of lo n g term phenom ena observed in th e field of tex tile -c lo th in g pro d u ctio n in th e w orld and in th e w orld m a r-k et for these products. H ere it proved indispensable to exam ine th e sh a re of the fo u r co u ntries in production of te x tile s and especially th e ir sh are in the m arket. F inally, th e re w ere analyzed d evelopm ental plans of the co u n tries u n d e r survey.
T he assum ptions m ade by us w ere larg e ly confirm ed in th e course of r e s e a rc h e s 2. In th e opinion of th e re se a rc h e rs th e y e x p lic itly point a t a need for exp an d in g th e scope of co-operation b etw een countries. E xpansion of cooperation in th e exam ined sphere, search fo r its a ttr a c -tive form s — these a re directio n s of a c tiv ity fo r w hich in th e p re se n t economic situ atio n of P oland, Czechoslovakia, th e GDR th e re is no lo-gical a lte rn a tiv e . L au nching of th ese activities is p ro m p ted not only by num erous in te rn a l factors (im provem ent of effectiveness of economic m anagem ent, grow ing p ressu re of th e m ark e t, changes in cosum ption s tru c tu re ) b u t also by grow ing com petition in th e w orld m ark e t.
A t th is point it w ould be w o rth w hile to p re se n t b rie fly th e re su lts of a lre ad y com pleted initial researches. The p erfo rm ed an alysis of th e
2 In accessib ility of n ec essary in fo rm a tio n (both sta tistic a l a n d n o n -sta tistic a l) w as a fa c to r larg ely h am p erin g o u r researches.
p re se n t s ta te in th e four analyzed co ntries allow ed us to fo rm u la te th e follow ing conclusions:
1. All four co u n tries a re c h aracterized w ith a d riv e to w a rd s re la -tiv e ly a u ta rk ic satisfactio n of dom estic needs for te x tile and clothing products. T h a t is best confirm ed by a d istin ctly low er level of te x tile im p o rts in each c o u n try (especially of clothing im ports) th a n the level of th e ir exports. In th e e x tre m e case of P oland im p o rt accounts for only 10 p e r cent of export. The sh are of e x p o rt of th e discussed p ro ducts in th e o verall e x p o rt is sim ilar in th e four co u n tries and it am ounts to 7— 8 p e r cent. The corresponding index for im p o rt is m uch lo w er and reaches 4— 6 p er cent. In spite of th e fact th a t in all these co u n tries dynam ics of im p o rt in th is field is a little h ig h er th a n of ex p o rt, this does not im ply a n y pronounced ten d e n c y to w ard s b alan cin g th e levels of e x p o rt and im port, tak in g into account a su b sta n tia l d iffe re n tia tio n of th ese levels in th e sta rtin g period of ou r analysis.
2. W e can d ra w a conclusion th a t tra d e in te x tile s and clothing goods w ith foreign co u n tries is expected to accom plish p rim a rily tasks and ta rg e ts w hich a re not connected w ith satisfactio n of dom estic dem and. F oreign tra d e in this group of com m odities is a source of n et h a rd c u rre n c y earn in g s (i.e. th e re is a positive tra d e balance in this group) w hich can be ju stified by occuring tensions in h a rd c u rre n c y paym ents. The basic o u tle ts for te x tile and clothing p ro ducts tu rn e d o ut by these c o u n tries a re th e Soviet U nion and n e x t developed m a rk e t economies. It is w o rth adding h e re th a t E uropean c e n tra lly p lan n e d econom ies (from am ong w hich a decisive ro le is played by th e four co u n tries a n a -lyzed by us) despite prev ailin g opinions a re of secondary im portance in th e w orld tra d e in tex tiles. T hey hold a stro n g position only in supplies of te x tile s and especially clothing to th e Soviet Union, w ith these supplies accounting for ca. 6.1 p e r cent of th e w orld tra d e in clothing. T h eir role in rem ain in g m a rk e ts is insignificant. Thus, fo r exam ple, th e sh a re of E ast E uropean co u n tries in overall im p o rt of te x tile s am ounted in 1975 to
A h a rd -c u rre n c y e a rn in g function of te x tile ex p o rts la rg e ly d eterm in es th e secondary ro le of foreign tra d e as a source of d iv ersification and im p ro v em en t of dom estic m a rk e t su p p ly w ith te x tile s and, firs t of all,
te x tile pro d u cts % clothing p ro d u cts % to: EEC EFTA USA 2.1 4.2 3.5 3.1 0.8 0.6
8 O w n calculations on th e basis of Y e a rb o o k of, „ In te rn a tio n a l T ra d e S ta tistic s” 1077, UN, New York.
clothing as w ell as m inim um degree of u tilization of o p p o rtu n ities a ffo r-ded in this field by in te rn a tio n a l co-operation and trade.
3. Low sh a re of e x p o rt from each of th e exam ined co u n tries to the rem ain in g th re e co u n tries (9 to 17 p e r cent of overall e x p o rt of te x tile and clothing) is a sym ptom confirm ing a thesis ab o u t lack of co-opera- tion in this area b etw een the countries, and about lack or insignificant role of specialization w ith in th e fram ew o rk of th e exam ined group of countries.
4. T h ere a re visible d ifferences b etw een these co u n tries in levels of te x tile and clothing tu rn o v e r per one in h ab itan t. In m ost a sso rtm e n t groups, both in e x p o rt and especially in im port, th e low est position is held by Poland. D ifferences b etw een th e rem ain in g th re e co u ntries are less pronounced. In m an y cases a high position of H ungary, p rim a rily in th e field of im port, ap p ears to be qu ite in terestin g . A conclusion can th u s be d raw n th a t a ten d e n c y of self-sufficiency in satisfaction of do-m estic needs for te x tile and clothing p ro d u cts is do-m ost pronounced in P oland and re la tiv e ly w eakest in H ungary. This conclusion is also con-firm ed by o th e r data. T he sh are of im port in provision of th e dom estic m ark e t for te x tile raw m ate ria ls and rea d y -m ad e products. It seem s, cent. In th e group of clothing as m uch as 98 p e r cent of m a rk e t supplies come from dom estic production. In th is situ a tio n im p o rt fro m th e r e -m aining th re e co u n tries rep re se n ts not -m ore th a n 1 p e r cen t of te x tile supplies to th e m ark e t. The sh are of im p o rt in m a rk e t supplies of te x tile s and clothing in th e rem ain in g co u n tries is m uch h ig h er and am ounts to 17 p e r c e n t in Czechoslovakia, and 18 p e r cent in H ungary. By com parison — in th e EEC co u n tries th is sh a re reaches th e level of 30 to 35 p e r cent.
5. The exam ined countries are n et im porters of raw m aterials for th e ir light in d u strie s (i.e. th e ir tra d e balance is negative here) and net e x p o rte rs (positive tra d e balance) of rea d y -m ad e goods. G eographical and a sso rtm e n t s tru c tu re of im p o rt of ra w m a te ria ls and e x p o rt of rea d y -m ad e te x tile and clothing p ro ducts is qu ite sim ilar although not identical in the four countries. We can accordingly accept w ith a great pro b ab ility th a t th ese co u n tries show a sim ilar degree of th e ir d ep en -dence on s tru c tu ra l and m ark e t situ atio n changes both as reg a rd s the m ark e t for tex tile raw m aterials and ready-m ade products. It seems, how ever, th a t the ex isting possibilities in th e sp h ere of co-operation of th e four co u n tries in th ird m ark e ts have not been utilized so far.
6. T extile and clothing in d u strie s of th e four co u n tries rep re se n t a sim ilar level of developm ent. O ccuring d ifferences a re re la tiv e ly not too big, and m ost coefficients a re shaped a t a sim ilar level. And thus, te x tile in d u strie s of these countries rev eal sim ilar volum es of production
in p a rtic u la r p ro ducts p e r head of population. B igger disproportions can be noted only in case of a few products. The analysis revealed con-siderable sim ilarities in th e b ran ch s tru c tu re of te x tile in dustry. R ela-tions b etw een production of te x tile and clothing in d u strie s a re alm ost identical. C apital in te n sity in both in d u strie s of Poland, Czechoslovakia and H u n g ary is sim ilar, although its level is m uch h ig h er in th e GDR. The four co u ntries a re c h aracterized w ith a sim ilar, high p articip a tio n of w om en in em ploym ent in the analyzed sectors, w hich reflects low er th a n average level of w ages in these industries.
7. Q uite su b sta n tia l differences b etw een the GDR and rem aining co u n tries in th e capital in te n sity level w ere not confirm ed by labour p ro d u ctiv ity ratios. W hile estim atin g it th e re w ere achieved ov erstated d a ta fo r Polish tex tile and clothing industries. T his phenom enon m ay be due to lack of uniform pricing policies. If, how ever, w e accept th a t prices a re of p a ra m e tric c h a ra c te r, th e ir high level in P oland w ould seem to testify to a low level of th e dom estic m a rk e t satisfaction.
8. O ver th e period of 1960— 1975 the highest level of developm ent in th e in d u strie s in question w as noted in Poland. This re fe rs to p ro -duction dynam ics both in ad valorem and q u a n tita tiv e approaches in p a rtic u la r groups of products: y a rn , fabrics, k n itte d goods. In Poland th e re was w itnessed also a considerable gro w th of productive facto rs — of em ploym ent and fixed assets in the tw o in d ustries. This g ro w th was a re su lt of th e h ig h est in v estm e n t ra te ever observed in ou r country.
It is obvious th a t th e co u n tries discussed h e re are, to a sm a lle r or bigger degree, d ep e n d en t upon phenom ena occuring in th e w orld eco-nom y, c o n stitu tin g th e ir w idely understood environm ent. The degree of this dependence is grow ing along w ith processes re fe rre d to as „ e x te rn a l o rie n ta tio n ” of economies, w ider p articip a tio n in th e in te rn a tio n a l d i-vision of labour. This sta te m e n t rings tru e also w ith re g a rd to th e are a discussed here. T he perform ed analysis of changes in the w orld o u tp u t of te x tile s and clothing as w ell as long te rm m ark e t tre n d s in th is field allow ed to define th e m ost im p o rta n t tre n d s and th e ir probable im pact on th e discussed field in th e co u n tries u n d e r survey.
T hus, th e w orld consum ption of tex tiles, despite th e observed d e-te rio ra tio n of its dynam ics, w ill be grow ing in th e com ing y e a rs a t th e ra te of 2.5— 3.5 p e r cent a n n u ally , w ith a h ig h er th a n average gro w th r a te of te x tile consum ption to be expected in developing countries, and low er — in th e m ost h ighly developed ones. F o r c e n tra lly p lanned eco-nom ies th e re is pro jected a g ro w th of te x tile consum ption a t a r a te approaching th e average rate. D espite p ro jected differences in dynam ics, th e re a re not forecast an y d rastic changes in th e sh are of th e above m entioned co u n tries in to ta l consum ption, alth o u g h developing co u n tries
will m ost p robably increase th e ir sh a re a t th e cost of th e m ost h ighly developed regions.
Much m ore essential changes w ill tak e place in th e a sso rtm e n t s tru c -tu re of consum ption of te x tile fibres. S y n th e tic fibres w ill a lre a d y in th e n e a r fu tu re replace cotton, becom ing th u s a basic te x tile fibre. Technological conditions show th a t th e level of p articip a tio n of s y n th e -tic fibres in th e dom es-tic consum ption of all fibres w ill be a n index of m o d ern ity in th is dom ain. P ro d u ctio n of sy n th e tic fib res w ill continue to be c o n cen trated in developed countries.
D eveloped m ark e t econom ies will preserv e th e ir leading position in the w orld tra d e in te x tile s both on e x p o rt and im p o rt side. This w ill be accom panied by a ten d en cy to w ard s consolidating th e position of d eve-loping countries as th e so-called „cheap e x p o rte rs ”, especially in the g roup of clothing products and tex tile goods of low or m edium q uality. A ccordingly, th e re cannot be pro jected increase of th e sh are of cen-tra lly planned econom ies in th e w orld te x tile cen-trad e. In th is group of co u n tries th e re w ill be continued predom inance of e x p o rt over im port. T h eir share in th e w orld tra d e in te x tile s w ill rem a in to be m uch low er th a n th e ir sh are in to ta l consum ption of textiles.
T he w orld tex tile and clothing in d u strie s are c h aracterized w ith v e ry stro n g tendencies of gro w th in labour p ro d u ctiv ity — and accordingly — of increasing c a p ita l-o u tp u t ratio and decreasing lab o u r in te n sity in th is b ran ch of production. T h at w ill be connected w ith su b sta n tia l stru c tu ra l changes consisting in tra n s fe r of m ore lab o u r in tensive bran ch es and processing stages to co u n tries w ith cheaper labour. D eveloped countries w ill pro b ab ly re ta in easier fo r autom ation, e a rlie r stages of fib re p ro -cessing as w ell as p ro d uction of te x tile and clothing p ro d u cts of th e highest q uality. The analyzed tendencies w ill pave th e w ay fo r increased p a rticip a tio n of m ore lab o u r in tensive clothing p ro d u cts in th e in te rn a -tional tra d e in textiles.
T he analysis of gen eral tre n d s affords also conclusions concerning d ire c tly th e exam ined countries. It is w o rth quoting a t least m ost im p o rta n t of th em here:
— th e sh are of th e fo u r co u ntries in th e w orld tra d e in te x tile s shows, g e n e ra lly speaking, an insignificant decrease tre n d ; accordingly th e re is not p ro jected a change of th e ir role as sm a lle r su p p liers to m ark e ts of w e ste rn countries, a lth o u g h th e ir position w ill be h e re m ore th re a te n e d by su ppliers from developing countries;
— th e re a re fears th a t in th e situ a tio n of severe re stric tio n s to m ass e x p o rt of te x tile -c lo th in g products to developed countries, su ppliers from the 3rd w orld w ill be focussing th e ir effo rts on considerable im p rovem ent of the q u a lity of e x p o rted goods, w hich w ill all the m ore
d istin c tly pose a th re a t to e x p o rte rs from th e four analyzed countries, w hich h ith e rto have been supplying p ro ducts of m edium and m edium - -low q u a lity to w e stern m ark ets; th a t can b ring about decrease of effec-tiveness of this export, and even lead to serious selling difficulties;
- th e four co u n tries in question are im p o rta n t su p p liers of te x tile s and clothing to th e Soviet Union, b ut also in th is m a rk e t th e y should reckon w ith a grow ing com petition both on th e p a rt of developing and developed countries;
fo r th e four co u n tries to p reserv e th e ir position in th e above m entioned m ark ets, th e y m u st c o n sta n tly im prove q u a lity and m oder-n ity of th e ir p ro ducts both as reg a rd s raw m aterials, applied techoder-niques, u tility c h a ra c te ristic s as w ell as th e ir ad ap ta tio n to tre n d s in fashions; it is necessary h e re to prom ote ste a d y and rap id im p rovem ent of labour p ro d u ctiv ity in te x tile in d ustries, increase se n sitiv ity and ela stic ity of tex tile -c lo th in g branches, abandon expansion of bran ch es h aving poor prospects for th e fu tu re .
O ne of factors w hich can prom ote not only im p lem e n ta tio n of th e above m entioned goals but also im p ro v em en t and e n ric h m e n t of dom e-stic m a rk e ts in these co u n tries should be a considerable expansion of so fa r in ad e q u a te m u tu a l tra d e tu rn o v e r, deepening of m u tu a l coopera-tion th ro u g h estab lish m e n t of p e rm a n e n t produccoopera-tion a n d tra d e ties and co-ordination of activ ities in th ird m arkets. This w ill pave th e w ay for a s tro n g e r im port p ressu re e x e rted on dom estic producers, im p rovem ent of q u a lity , m odernity. It w ill e ith e r enab le or fac ilita te selective deve-lo p m en t in th e discussed branches.
The po stu lated expansion of co-operation in th e discussed in d u stries b etw een Poland, Czechoslovakia, th e GDR, and H u n g a ry calls for con-tin u a tio n of research es in several basic directions. D evelopm ent of co- -o p eratio n w ill necessitate am ong o th ers finding its new form s. H ere it will be necessary to solve num erous problem s connected a t least w ith th e fact of d iffe re n tia tio n of th e e n v iro n m en t (e.g. system s, legal envi-ro n m ents) of com panies in each co untry.
It is eq u a lly im p o rta n t to seek m echanism s of technology and in fo r-m ation tra n s fe r b etw een countries, connected w ith new p ro d u ct devlopm ent, w hich w ill prom ote increased a d a p ta b ility and co m p etitiv e-ness of th e discussed industries. T h ere m ust also be solved problem s connected w ith m u tu al financial se ttle m en ts, d istrib u tio n channels, and effectiveness issues. Som e of these problem s w ill be analyzed in fu rth e r stages of o u r rese a rc h project.
A n d rze j M iciński
C ZY N N IK I D ETER M IN U JĄ C E W SPÓ ŁPRA CĘ POM IĘD ZY NIEKTÓRYM I K R A JA M I SOC JA LISTY C ZN Y M I W P R O D U K C JI I W YM IANIE WYROBÓW
W ŁÓ K IEN N IC ZO-O D ZIEZOW Y CH
A rty k u ł sta n o w i ra p o rt z b a d a ń pro w ad zo n y ch w In sty tu c ie O b ro tu T o w a-row ego UŁ, k tó re dotyczą przem ysłów w łókienniczego i odzieżowego P olski, Czechosłow acji, NRD i W ęgier oraz w y m ia n y m iędzynarodow ej ty c h k ra jó w w g ru -pie w y ro b ó w w łókienniczo-odzieżow ych. P ra c e b adaw cze p ro w a d zo n e są z p u n k tu w idzenia w za jem n ej w sp ó łp racy pom iędzy k ra ja m i. A rty k u ł p rze d sta w ia w sk ró -cie w a ru n k i w yjściow e w sp ó łp rac y i om aw ia n ie k tó re czy n n ik i — w e w n ę trz n e i z e w n ętrzn e w sto su n k u do b ad an eg o u k ła d u k ra jó w — d e te rm in u ją c e je j ro z-w ó j z-w przyszłości.
