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No. 2 2013 DOI: 10.5277/ord130206

Małgorzata ŁATUSZYŃSKA*

Roma STRULAK-WÓJCIKIEWICZ**

A MODEL FOR ASSESSING

THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF TRANSPORT

Environmental effects of transport, with a particular focus on the natural environment have been discussed. The authors present methods for assessing the influence of investments in transport infra-structure on the environment, as well as the concept of a simulation model which integrates various methods and approaches used to assess the impact of such investments on the environment.

Keywords: transport, environment, computer simulation

1. Introduction

In the present EU economy, transport is the most dynamically growing sector, crucial in contributing to the achievement of the EU Lisbon Strategy which aims at growth in the economy and employment [12]. Unfortunately, the increasing demand for transportation services has lead to a higher concentration of traffic and, conse-quently, to aggravated risk to our natural environment.

For many years, the makers of a common transport policy in the EU have been seeking effective instruments to reduce the ecological effects of transport. One of its targets is to achieve sustainable transport growth, i.e. to make sure that European transportation systems meet socio-economic needs, while minimising their adverse effects on economies, societies and the environment [5–7, 23, 47, 27, 32].

The most recent EU publications and documents [13, 14, 9, 10] emphasise the im-portant role that local and regional authorities play in taking measures to alleviate local environmental problems. Considering the fact that in the EU the majority of new _________________________

*University of Szczecin, ul. Mickiewicza 64, 71-101 Szczecin, Poland, e-mail: mlat@wneiz.pl **West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin, al. Piastów 41, 71-065 Szczecin, Poland, e-mail: roma@ps.pl

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infrastructural projects, including transport infrastructure, have to comply with the envi-ronmental impact assessment (EIA) regulations and/or envienvi-ronmental protection laws, the Committee of the Regions claims that the directive on the strategic environmental impact assessment [16] and the directive on the environmental impact assessment [15] are key instruments of local and regional policies for environmental protection.

The main point of the EIA is to describe the environmental impact of each invest-ment giving consideration to all causes and effects. Due to its complexity, the EIA requires the use of many methods – from identification to forecasting and assessment. The decision concerning the choice of a method is made by experts being hired by the investor in order to prepare the documentation. These assessments are made by spe-cialists from a range of scientific fields. Each of the spespe-cialists applies their own re-search instruments – either existing ones or ones created for the purpose of a given study. The choice of these methods also depends on the stage that document prepara-tion is at, the type of investment and the ways of preparing variants (according to the differing amounts of data required for each of the methods). Therefore, the following questions arise: how to integrate various EIA approaches and methods into a single methodological system and how to present the results in a way that is comprehensible to all the actors taking part in the process.

The primary purpose of this paper is to present a concept of a model for computer simulations which allows us to integrate various approaches and methods applied in assessing the environmental impact of transport infrastructure investments.

2. The effects of investments in transport infrastructure

Authors of many publications [40, 54, 30] emphasise the close relation of trans-portation systems to economic, social and ecological systems. These systems influence one another and overlap. On the one hand, there are “expectations” of the economic, social and ecological systems in relation to the transportation system (the tasks result-ing from needs and available resources). On the other hand, however, the transporta-tion system influences the functransporta-tioning of the other systems causing particular effects [39]. These mutual dependences and examples of their effects are presented in Fig. 1.

What follows below is a more specific description of the environmental effects of building and using transport infrastructure:

• Land is taken for building transport infrastructure.

• As a result of land disintegration, the proper functioning of the integrated and dynamic combination of various types of ecosystems that occupy specific areas is at risk, which leads to the devastation of plants and extinction of animals.

• The pollution of air, soil and water threatens people’s health and life and has a destructive effect on flora and fauna.

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• There is a risk of road accidents, as well as a risk connected with transporting dangerous goods and waste.

• Solid waste can be difficult to dispose of (e.g. car wrecks, used tyres, etc). • Transport consumes large amounts of energy from non-renewable fuels.

• Time devouring traffic congestion causes an increase in the emission of harmful substances.

Fig. 1. Mutual influence of individual systems and examples of the impact of transport on these systems. Source: authors’ own study on the basis of [37, 52]

All the above effects should be evaluated before a decision is made concerning the choice of a particular investment plan made as the result of an environmental impact assessment.

3. The procedure of environmental impact assessment

The environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a systematised mode of operation consisting of the interdisciplinary identification and assessment of the impact that

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planned investments, as well as their alternatives, will have on a particular area and the processes ongoing there. The essence of the EIA is to assess the environmental impact of each investment giving specific consideration to its measurable and im-measurable environmental implications. It serves the purpose of finding solutions which will minimize the conflicts that can appear in the social-economic- -environmental sphere as a result of a planned investment. The EIA also helps to make a decision concerning the implementation of an investment project. Such an assess-ment should be complex, suggest alternative solutions with a view to avoiding risks and, finally, contain an analysis of local and global effects, non-reversible changes, as well as of the long-term impact [1].

The EIA is performed according to a procedure consisting of three main stages: identification, forecasting and assessment. At each of these stages, the application of specific methods and tools is required (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. The stages of environmental impact analysis (EIA). Source: authors’ own study

At the stage of identification, all the possible effects on the environment are de-fined. Each factor is associated with affected spheres. Due to the large number of fac-tors and impacts at this stage, matrix methods are used, for which cause and effect matrices or interaction matrices are constructed.

The forecasts carried out at the second stage of EIA concern the parameters describ-ing the condition of the environment. They are carried out on the basis of simulatdescrib-ing the course of a given environmental impact or by means of probabilistic methods, which help define the probability of each possible future state of a given element of the envi-ronment. The decision regarding the choice of a method or methods is made by the ex-perts who prepare the documentation. The forecasts are made by specialists representing

a crucial part of the procedure assessment of the information collected at two previous stages

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different scientific fields. There are experts who study the impact of a project on atmos-pheric pollution, others examine its effects on surface and ground water or soil, on the acoustic climate and nature, etc. What is more, each expert uses different research tools – existing ones or ones created specifically for the sake of a given study.

The assessment, i.e. the essential part of the procedure, covers the integration of the data collected at the two previous stages and is performed by means of various methods and techniques [17]:

• comparative breakdown of the impacts of planned investments on particular el-ements of the environment expressed in various, often incomparable, units (e.g. dB, mg/m3, etc.),

• qualitative and quantitative characteristics of all the environmental impacts of an investment,

• a relatively objective proposal of the investment plan that likely to be the least harmful to the environment.

Overall assessments can be performed by means of the following methods: control lists, histograms, map methods, networking methods, multi-attribute utility theory, multi-criteria decision methods, indexing methods, as well as cost-benefit methods.

It should be noted that the integration of information is a substantial problem in EIA which occurs at two levels. The first one concerns single components of the envi-ronment which can be affected by numerous factors (e.g. pollution, noise, etc.). The forecasted effect on a given component of the environment is described by means of many different parameters that are often interrelated. The second level relates to the choice of components of the environment to be assessed, as it is also necessary to de-fine the mode of integrating the assessments of the effects on individual components, which eventually leads to an overall assessment of the impacts [26].

Additional complications result from the fact that the assessment of the impact of any transport infrastructure investment must simultaneously cover such aspects as the spatial range of environmental effects, the long-term nature of an investment and its long-term operation, as well as uncertainty [39].

All in all, the assessment of the influence that transport has on the environment is a methodically complicated process, which involves many experts using plenty of methods and techniques, as well as dedicated IT tools, a list of which is presented in the next part of this article.

4. Computer-aided assessments

of the environmental impact of transport

IT aided EIA is most often performed at the stage of forecasting the impact of a given enterprise on the environment. At the identification stage, geographic informa-tion systems (GIS) are common for data collecinforma-tion and processing [8, 24, 38, 25, 35, 3].

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IT tools are seldom used for overall assessment – mainly for preparing investment variants where multi-criteria decision methods are applied.

Table 1. Review of computer tools aiding EIA

No. Tool disintegrationLand use anda

Pollution emissions Noise emissions Road safety Air Water and soil 1 CALINE 3 – + – – – 2 COPERT III – + – – – 3 COPERT IV – + – – – 4 OpaCal3m – + – – –

5 OPERAT FB package for Windows – + – – –

6 SAMOCHODY

module of OPERAT-FB – + – – –

7 EK100W – + – – –

8 AERO 2010 – + – – –

9 INFRAS – + – – –

10 EDMS, ALAQS, ADMS – + – – –

11 NMPB-Routes 96 – – – + – 12 RMR (SRM II) – – – + – 13 ECAC.CEAC – – – + – 14 SoundPLAN – + – + – 15 SON2 – – – + – 16 IMMI – + – + – 17 VISUM – + – – + 18 Vissim – – – – +

19 Geographic Information System (GIS) + + + + +

aLand use and disintegration means e.g. impact on landscape, impact on plant and animal

species. Source: authors’ own study based on [48, 21, 22, 20].

Table 1 presents examples of IT tools that can be applied at the forecasting stage in relation to some of the aforementioned environmental impacts of transport. It can be easily noticed in the table that most of the tools refer simultaneously to two effects with the exception of GIS-type tools that, unfortunately, do not allow us to show fore-casted effects on the time axis, which is crucial in the case of effects that accumulate over time.

Therefore, it is necessary to develop such an IT tool that would allow simultane-ous analysis of all the above EIA issues. This tool should offer an opportunity to pro-vide complex data concerning all the expected effects using a dynamic and spatial approach [36]. It should also help to present secondary effects resulting from the inner

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dynamics of the examined system (such as the transportation system) in relation to the environment. A model for computer simulations which integrates various methods applied in the EIA process into a single methodological system enabling parallel esti-mation of all the considered effects in a dynamic approach could be a good approach.

Computer simulation is a numerical method used for experimenting on certain types of mathematical models that describe the long time behaviour of complex sys-tems [46, p. 21]. According to Małek [41, p. 54], such methods are better than the traditional methods applied to the analysis of transportation systems, because it allows us to analyse the complex processes taking place in the system examined and its envi-ronment both in time and space. A similar view concerning complex systems (such as the system of interactions between transport and the environment) was expressed by Forrester [19, p. 88], who said that “the effective reflection of the behaviour of a com-plex system lies beyond the boundaries of traditional mathematical methods”. He re-garded computer simulation as the only effective instrument in this matter. Cempel [11] is of an almost identical opinion and claims that “in our cognition of complex systems the simulation, being able to manipulate the space-time continuum, is the only tool offering the chance to express and understand the cause and effect relations that are distant in time and space and linked by many feedbacks”.

It is important to choose a detailed technique of formalising the proposed simula-tion model which will enable us to construct a complex, dynamic and coherent model for examining the influence of the development of infrastructure on the environment. On the basis of the reference literature, a hypothesis can be drawn that the system dynamics (SD) developed by Forrester and his colleagues from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology [18] is a good choice for this particular purpose.

This method was created on the basis of several scientific disciplines, so its very origin shows that it combines numerous methods (including conventional analytical ones) into a single methodological system. For instance, there are industrial models built in the convention of system dynamics working in Input-Output systems, linear programming, system dynamics [33] or energy models, such as ZENCAP-D devel-oped at ETH Zürich [31] or models of transport systems [4]. SD has been successfully used both for long-term forecasts by the Club of Rome [42, 43, 44] and for bio-cybernetic experiments assessing the social effects of industrial or transport growth [53]. SD is also commonly used for integrated assessment of various strategies of transport policy (see: [55, 34, 51, 2, 50]).

5. The concept of a model for computer simulations

A general structure of the proposed model is presented in Fig. 3. The model con-sists of modules, thanks to which it enables integration of all the effects of investments

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The im pact o f t raff ic in a r egi on on a cert ain catego ry of user s (number of re gi on s x n um be r o f user s’ cate gories) co ef fici en t b eta f or reg io n i co effic ie nt a lfa fo r r eg io n i so ci o-eco no m ic v ari ab le re fle cti ng a cti vi ty p atte rn fo r us er s o f c at ego ry k in r egi on i tr ip s g en er ate d o r at tr ac te d i n r eg ion i f or tr an sp or t users categ or y k E sti mating th e vo lu m e of tr af fic b etwee n locati ons i and j used b y each user categ or y (n um be r of p air s of lo cations x nu m ber of us er cat eg or ie s) pa ra m et er a lfa pa ra m et er b et a tri ps g en er ate d in z on e j fo r tra ns por t u se rs of c at eg or y k tri ps g en er ate d in z on e i fo r tra ns por t u se rs of c at eg or y k di stan ce be tw ee n i an d j es tim at ed vo lu me o f t rip s in r ela tio n i-j f or tra ns por t u se rs of c at eg or y k

Set of investment plan

s for rou te s i n th e tr ansport netwo rk pl anne d inv es tm ent ex pe ns es fo r ne tw or k l ink l o f tr an sp or t co rr id or fo r mo de m in ve st m ent fu nd re le as ing <T im e> Esti m at ing th e vo lu m e of each m od e of tr aff ic on route r between lo ca tio ns i and j u sed by e ach category of us ers (n um ber o f pairs of locatio ns x number of us er categor ies x number of tr ansport modes x number of ro utes) es tim ate d vo lu m e o f t rip s in r ela tio n i-j f or tr an sp or t u ser s ca teg or y k pr ob ab ilit y o f ch oi ce tr an sp or t mo de m i n re la tio n i -j b y us er s o f ca teg or y k tr ip s in r ela tio n i-j b y r ro ut e f or tr an sp or t u ser s of c at eg ory k an d m ode m Model ing t he pr oba bilit y of c hoos in g a pa-rticular rou te and m od e of tra nsport by eac h categor y of us er s tr av elling from i to j us ing MNL m odel (num be r of pa irs of locatio ns x number of us er category x n umber o f tran sp ort m ode s x num be r of rou tes) ut ilit y o f t ra ns po rt m ode m in rel at ion i-j o n ro ut e r fo r us er s o f c at eg or y k pr ob ab ilit y o f c ho ic e tr an spor t m ode m on ro ut e r i n re la tio n i-j by u ser s of cat eg ory k su m o f e xp (u tilit y of tr an sp or t m ode m in r el at io n i-j o n ro ut e r fo r us ers of cat eg ory ) The p arameters of traff ic f lo w along r ou te r between lo cat ions i an d j descri be d by the fo ll ow ing trai ts: ti m e i n ve hicle, addi tion al ti me, cos t of tr avel (for each rou te in th e n etwork and m od e of tr anspor t) tr affi c fl ow fo r n et wor k link l f or mode m ca pa ci ty of n et w or k lin k l a nd m od e m av er ag e ex ploi tat io n spe ed of tr an spo rt m od e m in -v eh ic le tim e of tr an sp or t f or ne tw or k l ink l an d m ode m pa ra m et er a fo r n etwor k l in k l pa ra m et er b for n et w or k lin k l in-ve hic le tim e of tra ns por t wi th ou t co nge st io n f or ne tw or k lin k l a nd mo de m le ngt h o f ne tw or k l ink l f or m ode m lo ad fact or fo r ne tw or k l in k l an d t ran sp or t m ode m tran sp or t c ost fo r m od e m an d n et wor k lin k ch ar ges co nn ect ed w ith th e us e o f inf ra st ruc tur e o f l ink l fo r mo de m av er ag e t ot al op er at in g c os t fo r t ra ns por t mode m and ne tw or k l in k l leng th of n et w or k lin k l f or m od e m co st co nn ec te d w ith the le ngt h of n et w or k l in k l fo r m od e m co st co nn ect ed wi th tim e o f tra ns po rt f or ne tw or k l in k l for mo de m tra ns po rt c os t f or m ode m pe r 1 km co st of t ran sp or t f or m ode m for 1 h ou r to ta l tr an sp or t tim e f or ne tw or k l ink l by tr an sp or t mo de m Descript ion o f each route in the tr ansp or t n etwor k: ca pacity, tr aff ic f low, tr aff ic d ens ity (for ea ch

mode of transport) traffic fl

ow in re la tio n i-j fo r tr an sp or t m od e m nu m be r o f ve hi cl es n eede d fo r sa tisf yi ng dem an d i n re la tio n i-j fo r tr an sp or t m od e m av er ag e ca pac ity of ve hi cl e f or tr an spo rt mo de m to ta l d em an d fo r tr an sp or t i n re la tio n i -j fo r tran sp or t m od e m tr affi c fl ow fo r ne tw or k l in k l an d t ra ns por t mo de m in -v eh ic le tim e of tr an spor t f or ne tw or k l in k l an d m ode m le ngt h o f ne tw or k l ink l f or m od e m tr affi c d en sity fo r n et w or k lin k l a nd tra ns por t m ode m real s peed o f tr an spor t mo de m o n ne tw or k l in k l cap aci ty o f n et w or k lin k l f or tr an spor t m ode m co st o f i ncr eas in g cap aci ty by on e u ni t f or m ode m tim e f or real izat io n o f inve stm en t p la ns fo r mo de m initi al cap aci ty o f n et w or k lin k l f or tr an sp or t m od e m in cr eas e of cap ac ity o f ne tw or k l ink l for tr an spo rt m ode m decr ea se o f c ap aci ty o f ne tw or k li nk l f or tr an sp or t m ode m pl anne d in ve st men t ex pen ses fo r ne tw or k lin k l of tr an sp or t co rr id or fo r m od e m tim e of w ear ing i nf ras tr uc tu re aw ay fo r m od e m <T im e> The impact on th e envi ro nm en t and t raffi c safet y ( for each rou te i n th e tr an sp or t ne twork and ea ch m ode of tr an spo rt) la nd ta ke n fo r ne w o r m ode rn iz ed tr an spor t in fras tru ctu re fo r m od e m ta ki ng l and fo r ne w o r m ode rniz ed tr an spor t infr as tru ctu re fo r m od e m in itia l w id th o f n et w or k lin k l for tra ns port m ode m le ng th of n et w or k lin k l f or t ra ns por t m ode m w idt h of net w or k l in k l for m ode m af ter r eal izat io n o f i nv es tm en t p lan taki ng la nd fo r ne w o r m ode rn ized tra ns port in fr as truc tu re fo r m ode m on ne tw or k l ink l pl an ne d inve st m ent ex pe ns es fo r ne tw or k l in k l of tra ns port cor ridor f or m ode m <T im e> ris k o f ap pe ar an ce of ac ci de nt of ty pe p on n et w or k lin k l f or m od e m ex pect ed nu m be r o f tra ffi c ac ci den ts o f ty pe p f or mo de m an d lin k l tr af fic d en sit y fo r n et w or k lin k l a nd tr an sp or t mo de m to ta l a m ou nt of ac ci den ts o f ty pe p for mo de m leve l o f eq ui va lent no is e em itt ed by tr affic on n etw ork l ink l fo r m od e m ra y of expo su re on no ise l eve l highe r t ha n no rm s on net wor k l in k l an d m od e m traf fic fl ow fo r ne tw or k lin k l an d t ran sp or t mo de m area al on g ne tw or k l ink l f or mo de m exp os ed on n ois e le ve l hi ghe r t ha n no rm s real s peed o f tran spor t m od e m o n n etw ork link l no rm lengt h o f ne tw or k l ink l for t ra ns por t m ode m pa ra met er alfa fo r tran spor t m od e m pa ram eter be ta tr an sp ort m ode m em iss ion fa ct or for po llu ta nt of ty pe p fo r tran sp or t m od e m ex pe ct ed em issi on s o f po llu ta nt of ty pe p f or tr an spo rt mo de m a nd ne tw or k l in k l traf fic de ns ity fo r n et wor k lin k l an d tra ns po rt m od e m to ta l e m iss io n of p ollut an t o f ty pe p f or tr an sp or t m od e m C hanges i n the value of par ticu la r so cio-ec onomic char acte ris tics ( popu lation, em pl oy m ent , GD P ) i n a re gi on ( num be r of re gi ons x nu m ber of characteri stics ) soci o-econ om ic v ar iab le ref lect in g ac tiv ity pat ter n fo r u ser s of cat eg or y k in re gion i ch an ge of a so ci o-econ om ic v ar iabl e re flect in g act iv ity p at ter n fo r u se rs o f c ate go ry k in re gi on i el em en t i nf lu en cing a cha nge o f a so ci o-ec on om ic va ria bl e re fle ct in g ac tiv ity p at te rn fo r us er s of cat eg or y k in reg io n i in itia l v al ue o f a s oc io -e co no m ic va riabl e re flect ing a ct iv ity pa tter n f or us er s of cat eg or y k in r eg ion i tim e ne cess ar y fo r a ch an ge of a so ci o-econ om ic v ar iabl e ref lec tin g ac tiv ity p att er n f or us er s of c ate go ry k in r eg io n i Avail abili ty o f specif ic so cio -econ om ic cha rac-ter istics (populatio n, em pl oy m ent , GD P ) in a region (num be r of reg io ns x number of char acte ris tics) acces sib ili ty of so ci o-eco no m ic va ria bl e o f t yp e k in reg ion j f or re gion i cos t of di st an ce re sist an ce in re la tio n i-j soc io-ec on om ic vari abl e re flect in g acti vi ty p att er n fo r us er s of c at ego ry k i n r egi on j lim it o f d is ta nc e re sist an ce c os t i n re la tio n i -j fa ctor of tot al ac ce ss ib ilit y o f type k fo r re gion i Fig. 3. Th e g eneral stru ctur e of

the model for simulating

th e envir onmental impact of tr

ansport. Source: autho

rs’ o

w

n stud

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in transport infrastructure that can be observed both on its environment and the trans-port system as a whole, as well as on social and economic systems. What is more, the authors take into consideration the feedback between the modelled effects in a dy-namic way.

The model contains not only modules connected with the effects on the environ-ment, but also ones that facilitate assessment of the long-term future level of traffic on the infrastructure under construction or modernisation. The modules related to the natural environment make use of information coming directly from the modules re-sponsible for determining: average traffic speed, descriptive elements of the transport network (mainly traffic congestion and flow) which in turn require data calculated in other modules, as well as information about planned investment variants contained in a separate module.

The modules are composed using elements of system-dynamic notation (levels, streams, ancillary variables, parameters) and instructions in the formal language of simulation (DYNAMO, VENSIM, Powersim, IThink, etc.). The modules are building materials for constructing a target model, as well as being able to act as models them-selves. For instance, the modules used for forecasting the environmental impact of an investment in transport infrastructure are often related to biophysical models based on the laws of physics and chemistry.

Table 2 lists the effects of transport infrastructure investments that are most com-monly taken into consideration in EIA with examples of models used for their estima-tion. The corresponding models are presented in system-dynamic notation in Fig. 4.

Table 2. Impact of transport infrastructure on chosen environmental quality indices

Effect Example of a simple model Ref.

Road safety [No. of accidents/year] , , , , l p m p l m l m m N =

r k g [28] where: Np,m – expected number of type p accidents for

means of transport m, rp,l,m – odds ratio of type p

acci-dents on route l for means of transport m, kl,m – traffic

congestion on edge l for means of transport m, gm

– mean load capacity of means of transport m

Land use [km2]

(

, , , ,

)

, l m k m l p m l m l T =

ww L [49] where: Tm –total area of land intended for the construction

or modernisation of transport infrastructure for means of transport m, wk,m,l – width of route l for means of transport

m after the investment has been completed, wp,m,l – initial

width of route l for means of transport m, Lm,l– total

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Table 2 continued Climate change:

– changes in CO2 emissions [t/year] , , ,

l

p m l m p m

E =

k e

where: Ep,m – total emissions of the type p pollutant,

kl,m – traffic congestion along route l for means of

transport m, ep,m – emission rate of the type p pollutant

for means of transport m

[29] Acidity

– changes in SO2 emissions [t/year]

– changes in NO2 emissions [t/year]

Air quality:

– volume of VOC, SO2,

NO2, CO emissions [t/year]

Noise

– changes in the noise level in the examined area: [km2 below 55 dB(A)]

, lg 10 lg ,

l m m l m

L = +α β v + q

where: Ll,m –level of noise emitted along route l by

means of transport m in dB(A), ql,m traffic flow along

route l for means of transport m, vm mean speed of

means of transport m, α,β function parameters for means of transport m

[45]

Source: authors’ own study.

Fig. 4. Structure of the model for the sectors of the natural environment and road safety. Source: authors’ own study

Module for road safety

Module for land use

by transport corridor infrastructure

Module for noise emissions Module for pollutant

emissions equivalent level of noise emitted along route 1 by means of transport m range exposed to noise exceeding the norm

along route l for means of transport m area along routel for means of transport m exposed to noise exceeding the norm a norm length of route 1 risk of an accident of a specific type along route l for means of transport m expected No. of accidents of a specific type

along route l for means of transport m totalexpected No. of accidents of a specific type for means of transport m

land use by infrastructure for means of transport

land use by infrastructure for means of transport m initial width of route 1 new width of route 1 land use by infrastructure for means m along the route l index of emissions of the type p pollutant

by means of transport m expected emissions of the type p pollutant

along route l by means of

transport m

total emissions of

the type p pollutant

by means of transport m

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A full set of the modules of the proposed model includes all the elements pre-sented in Fig. 3. This set can be extended as new dependences are discovered in the course of observations and further improvements to the theory concerning the exam-ined system are made.

Thanks to its module structure, the model for computer simulations allows the in-tegration of various methods and models applied for assessing the environmental im-pact of transport. What is more, this concept makes fast and easy, as well as efficient and effective, creation and modification of the model possible, due to the ready-made modules deriving solutions that have been already tested.

6. Further studies

Based on the concept presented above, studies are being carried out on a model adapted to the case study The Construction of a Ring Road in Stargard Szczecinski as

a Segment of Route 10. This investment includes the construction of a ring road, repair

of the local road network and existing infrastructure, as well as the construction of facilities reducing the negative impact of road traffic on the environment. This model will cover some of the effects of the investment on the following elements of the envi-ronment evaluated ex ante and presented in the report on the envienvi-ronmental impact of the investment: the acoustic climate, atmospheric air, surface water and soil, wildlife, cultural assets, landscape, geological and hydrological conditions, ground water and mineral resources, the population’s health and living conditions. The validation of the model will be based on data from post-investment monitoring.

Acknowledgements

The project was financed by the NCN allocated under DEC-2011/01/B/HS4/05232.

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