SOCIAL SCIENCES
THE FEITORIA PRIME MARKET MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF BILATERAL TRADE OPPORTUNITIES PORTUGAL - POLAND
José Manuel Macedo Botelho PhD, New Bank,
email: jmmbinternationalization@gmail.com, orcid.org/0000-0002-4001-6563, Portugal Volodymyr Kulishov
Professor, DSc, Polonia University in Czestochowa,
e-mail: kulishov_vv@kneu.dp.ua, orcid.org/0000-0002-8527-9746, Poland
Abstract. The paper aims to present the strategic management model for economic development, the Feitoria Prime Market Model (FPM). The FPM identifies new markets and new products for enterprises to export their products. FPM is based in the comparative advantage concept of Ricardo (1817) and incorporates economic and political dimensions in order to avoid unstable economies. The study present a particular case, Portugal-Poland, that has the objective to find bilateral trade opportunities. The methodology presented below is configured confronting the potential trade to effectively verified among the countries and uses a trade database 2012-16 period from the UN COMTRADE free database.
Keywords: Feitoria Prime Market Model, Comparative Advantages, Index of Complementarity (IC), Index of Effectiveness Commerce (EC).
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23856/2701
Introduction
The instability of the global economy and the governance of countries, led to take a qualitatively different approach to economic development and find new more effective strategic management model that incorporate these dimensions. Basically, strategic management refers to a systematic effort to establish organizational purposes, objectives, policies, and to develop the strategies which will be used to achieve the organizational purposes (Steiner, 1979). Recently, strategic management has been emphasized by policy makers and public managers at all levels of government (Bryson & Edwards, 2017).
The theories of international trade consolidate the idea that there are gains when different regions are related: a developed export sector is capable of having high impacts on the generation of jobs and income, as well as on the distribution of wealth in the population; on the import side, it is possible to generate welfare gains when a greater variety of products are available to be consumed; with regard to international relations in the financial system and in the flow of labor, it facilitates the entry of valuable productive resources into the country. As Galvão (2000) explains, international trade ceased to be a simple possibility of exporting productive surpluses; nowadays it has an important role for growth and for the improvement of economic well-being.
In 1989 the democratic transition in Poland began and changed the foreign policy of the country that depended entirely on the Soviet Union. The commercial relations between Portugal and Poland increased significantly since Poland integrated the European Union in 2004. In 2001 the bilateral trade between Portugal and Poland was around 415 million € and in 2016 was around 1.304,8 million €, representing an increase of 314%.
In 2016 Portugal exported 573 products to Poland (of a total of 1.252 products). In 2016, compared to 2012, the exports from Portugal to Poland had growth 7,5% to 575,6 million € (more than the exports to the World: 2,2%). The 24 larger products in value represent 60,5% of total products exported (table 1).
Table 1 Top 24 larger products in value exported from Portugal to Poland
Value in 2012 Value in 2016
TOTAL - All products 401 484 575 594 7.5% 0.0%
4703 - Chemical w ood pulp, soda or sulphate (excluding dissolving grades) 26 396 59 507 17.7% 10.3% 8480 - Moulding boxes for metal foundry; mould bases; moulding patterns; moulds for metal (other than ... 18 545 41 497 17.5% 17.5% 8708 - Parts and accessories for tractors, motor vehicles for the transport of ten or more persons, ... 22 768 37 723 10.6% 24.1% 2204 - Wine of fresh grapes, incl. fortified w ines; grape must, partly fermented and of an actual ... 11 378 19 128 10.9% 27.4% 6403 - Footw ear w ith outer soles of rubber, plastics, leather or composition leather and uppers of ... 1 886 17 516 56.2% 30.5% 8544 - Insulated "incl. enamelled or anodised" w ire, cable "incl. coaxial cable" and other insulated ... 35 719 16 437 -14.4% 33.3%
4011 - New pneumatic tyres, of rubber 23 313 16 036 -7.2% 36.1%
8527 - Reception apparatus for radio-broadcasting, w hether or not combined, in the same housing, w ith ... 27 725 13 820 -13.0% 38.5%
8712 - Bicycles and other cycles, incl. delivery tricycles, not motorised 869 11 682 68.2% 40.5%
3004 - Medicaments consisting of mixed or unmixed products for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, put ... 3 148 10 715 27.8% 42.4%
0805 - Citrus fruit, fresh or dried 4 659 10 086 16.7% 44.2%
5903 - Textile fabrics impregnated, coated, covered or laminated w ith plastics (excluding tyre cord ... 3 620 8 714 19.2% 45.7% 8516 - Electric instantaneous or storage w ater heaters and immersion heaters; electric space-heating ... 717 8 460 63.8% 47.1% 4802 - Uncoated paper and paperboard, of a kind used for w riting, printing or other graphic purposes, ... 10 385 7 760 -5.7% 48.5% 9401 - Seats, w hether or not convertible into beds, and parts thereof, n.e.s. (excluding medical, ... 2 550 7 462 24.0% 49.8% 1509 - Olive oil and its fractions obtained from the fruit of the olive tree solely by mechanical ... 656 7 088 61.0% 51.0% 8536 - Electrical apparatus for sw itching or protecting electrical circuits, or for making connections ... 5 726 7 085 4.4% 52.2% 3920 - Plates, sheets, film, foil and strip, of non-cellular plastics, not reinforced, laminated, ... 6 005 6 891 2.8% 53.4% 8409 - Parts suitable for use solely or principally w ith internal combustion piston engine of heading ... 13 153 6 883 -12.1% 54.6% 7210 - Flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel, of a w idth >= 600 mm, hot-rolled or cold-rolled ... 3 165 6 850 16.7% 55.8% 3926 - Articles of plastics and articles of other materials of heading 3901 to 3914, n.e.s. 4 574 6 821 8.3% 57.0% 5801 - Woven pile fabrics and chenille fabrics (excluding terry tow elling and similar w oven terry ... 830 6 684 51.8% 58.2% 4504 - Agglomerated cork, w ith or w ithout a binding substance, and articles of agglomerated cork (excluding ... 5 801 6 663 2.8% 59.3% 0703 - Onions, shallots, garlic, leeks and other alliaceous vegetables, fresh or chilled 1 466 6 595 35.1% 60.5% Source: COMTRADE, Feitoria Prime Market Model.
Unity: thousand EUR.
CAGR: Compound annual grow th rate.
Portugal's exports to Poland
Product CAGR12-16
Accumulated Value 2016
In 2016 Poland exported 550 products to Portugal (of a total of 1.254 products) and in 2016 (face to 2012), the exports from Poland to Portugal had growth 10,6% to 729,2 million € (more than the export growth to the World: 4,9%). The 16 larger products in value represent 61,2% of total products exported (table 2).
Table 2 Top 16 larger products in value exported from Poland to Portugal
Value in 2012 Value in 2016
TOTAL - All products 440 889 729 207 10.6% 0.0%
9401 - Seats, whether or not convertible into beds, and parts thereof, n.e.s. (excluding medical, ... 57 359 89 952 9.4% 12.3% 8528 - Monitors and projectors, not incorporating television reception apparatus; reception apparatus ... 56 890 67 099 3.4% 21.5% 8708 - Parts and accessories for tractors, motor vehicles for the transport of ten or more persons, ... 21 745 64 504 24.3% 30.4% 8703 - Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of persons, incl. ... 498 38 583 138.7% 35.7% 2402 - Cigars, cheroots, cigarillos and cigarettes of tobacco or of tobacco substitutes 3 117 25 968 52.8% 39.2% 8526 - Radar apparatus, radio navigational aid apparatus and radio remote control apparatus 8 22 225 388.4% 42.3% 8418 - Refrigerators, freezers and other refrigerating or freezing equipment, electric or other; heat ... 8 322 19 322 18.3% 44.9%
0201 - Meat of bovine animals, fresh or chilled 6 284 17 002 22.0% 47.3%
0207 - Meat and edible offal of fowls of the species Gallus domesticus, ducks, geese, turkeys and ... 6 891 16 092 18.5% 49.5% 8450 - Household or laundry-type washing machines, incl. machines which both wash and dry; parts thereof 11 175 15 040 6.1% 51.5% 8471 - Automatic data-processing machines and units thereof; magnetic or optical readers, machines ... 10 334 14 342 6.8% 53.5% 3815 - Reaction initiators, reaction accelerators and catalytic preparations, n.e.s. (excluding rubber ... 66 13 529 190.0% 55.4% 4205 - Articles of leather or composition leather (excluding saddlery and harness bags; cases and ... 1 414 11 586 52.3% 56.9% 7217 - Wire of iron or non-alloy steel, in coils (excluding bars and rods) 7 457 11 564 9.2% 58.5% 9403 - Furniture and parts thereof, n.e.s. (excluding seats and medical, surgical, dental or veterinary ... 16 953 10 330 -9.4% 59.9%
1001 - Wheat and meslin 1 836 9 474 38.8% 61.2%
Source: COMTRADE, Feitoria Prime Market Model. Unity: thousand EUR.
CAGR: Compound annual grow th rate.
Product
Poland's exports to Portugal CAGR12-16
Accum ulated Value 2016
Methodological aspects
The comparative advantage concept, proposed by Ricardo (1817), is one of the most used models both in the classical and neoclassical theories. According to Ricardo’s theory, a country will benefit if it specializes in the production of goods whose manufacture is intensive in its abundant resources. Thus, in developing countries where the reserve labor force is very large owing to open or disguised unemployment (Myrdal, 1956; Prebisch, 1959), best results can be achieved by specializing in the production of labor-intensive goods.
Vaillant & Ons (2003), Xavier et al. (2008) and Xavier (2009), use the comparative advantage of the exporter and comparative disadvantage of the importer crossed, through the so-called Index of Complementarity (IC) in conjugation with the Index of Effectiveness Commerce (EC), with the aim of confronting the potential trade of two regions against what was actually observed in a given period.
To identify trade potentials is used the Index of Complementary (IC). The indicator analyzes crossover between supply and demand for the products under study, taking in account the world context, that is, the comparative advantages of the exporter and the comparative disadvantages of the importer (Vaillant & Ons, 2003). The indicator is as follows: 2
s s WW s WW s s jW s jW s s iW s iW s s WW s WW s s jW s jW s s WW s WW s s iW s iW s ijM
M
M
M
X
X
M
M
M
M
X
X
X
X
IC
(1)where: i, exporting region; j, importing region; W, all regions of the world; s, sector considered in the analysis;
X
iWs , exports, for each sector s, from i to the world;
s s iW
X
, total exports from i to the world;M
sjW, imports, for each sector s, from j of the world ;
s s jW
M
,total imports from j of the world;
M
WWs , total world imports, for each sector s;
s s WW
M
,total world imports.
When IC > 1, there is complementarity between the two; below this value, there isn´t trade potential between i and j.
In order to compare the results of complementarity to the trade actually carried out between two partners, the Index of Effectiveness Commerce (EC) is used.
s s jW s jW s s iW s iW s s ij s ij s s jW s jW s s ji s ji s s iW s iW s s ij s ij s ijM
M
X
X
X
X
M
M
M
M
X
X
X
X
EC
2 (2)where: i, exporting region; j, importing region; W, all regions of the world; s, sector considered in the analysis;
X
ijs, exports, for each sector s, from i to j;
s s ij
X
, total exports from i to j;M
sji, imports, for each sector s, of j from i;
s s ji
M
, total imports of j from i;s iW
X
, exports, for each sector s, from i to the world;
s s iW
X
, total exports from i to world;s jW
M
, imports, for each sector s, of j from the world;
s s jW
M
, total imports of j from the world.According Xavier (2009): i) for a given sector s, if the value of EC is greater (smaller) than the unity, then the effective trade from i to j would be beyond (below) the average expectations and ii) for a given sector s, if the value of EC is equal to the unity, then the effective trade from i to j would only reflect the average expectations.
The main use of this index is the comparison with the Index of Complementarity (IC). For a given sector s, is expected that the result of EC>1 is compatible with the existence of complementary between regions i and j (IC>1). On the other hand, it is also expected that, for given sector s, the result of EC<1 is compatible with the non existence of complementarity between i and j (IC<1).
When EC>1 and IC<1, it means that, exceeding average expectations in an environment of non-complementarity between i and j would indicate that the sector s showed
a trade surplus. On the other hand, if EC<1 and IC>1 there is complementarity between i and j but the sector s should demonstrate better commercial performance, which was not observed. So the sectors with opportunities to exploit are when IC>1 and EC<1, that is, those sectors that do not take advantage of the complementarity existing between i and j, being the identification of these opportunities the main objective of this article.
The Feitoria Prime Market Model incorporates seven dimensions: the Ease of Doing Business1, the World Governance Indicator2, the Credit Rating3, the comparative advantage
concept, the size (amount of trade), the dynamism (given by growth of trade, express by CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate) and the Free Commerce (free merchandise of any kind of embargo - political, religious, etc).
Based on UN COMTRADE free database, it was possible to implement an analysis of the general characteristics of export products from Portugal to Poland and vice-versa. The database refers to 2012-16 period and it was used the Harmonized System4 (HS four-digit
code). The structure of HS therefore comprises 97 chapters which, in turn, can be disaggregated into 1,254 four-digit level - for example, Chapter 01 can be disaggregated into six subsectors, which are characterized in codes from 0101 to 0106, Chapter 02 can be disaggregated into ten subsectors, which are characterized in codes from 0201 to 0210.
Results
The confrontation of the Index of Complementarity (IC) and the Index of Effectiveness Commerce (EC) indicates under exploit sectors in trade relations between Portugal and Poland. The evaluation of the existing potential is given by Index of Complementarity (IC), if IC>1, the two regions studied would be complementary, that is, the two regions have potential to trade relations and then the Index of Effectiveness Commerce (EC) indicates the
1 The Ease of Doing Business: Economies are ranked on their ease of doing business, from 1–190. A high
ease of doing business ranking means the regulatory environment is more conducive to the starting and operation of a local firm. The rankings are determined by sorting the aggregate distance to frontier scores on 10 topics, each consisting of several indicators, giving equal weight to each topic. The rankings for all
economies are benchmarked to June 2017. In Doing Business 2018, Poland is the 27th country and Portugal
the 29th
2 The Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) project reports aggregate and individual governance
indicators for over 200 countries and territories over the period 1996–2016, for six dimensions of governance: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence, Government Effectiveness,
Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, Control of Corruption. Portugal position: 29th, 26th, 31th, 50th, 32th and 41th,
respectively. Poland position: 57th, 78th, 56th, 43th, 54th and 50th, respectively.
3 Standard& Poors: For S&P, a bond is considered investment grade if its credit rating is BBB- or higher.
Bonds rated BB+ and below are considered to be speculative grade, sometimes also referred to as "junk" bonds. Actually, Portugal has “BBB+” and Poland “BBB-“.
4 Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding Systems (HS) is an international nomenclature for the
classification of products. It allows participating countries to classify traded goods on a common basis for customs purposes. At the international level, the Harmonized System (HS) for classifying goods is a six-digit code system. The HS comprises approximately 5,300 article/product descriptions that appear as headings and subheadings, arranged in 99 chapters, grouped in 21 sections. The six digits can be broken down into three parts. The first two digits (HS-2) identify the chapter the goods are classified in, e.g. 09 = Coffee, Tea, Maté and Spices. The next two digits (HS-4) identify groupings within that chapter, e.g. 09.02 = Tea, whether or not flavoured. The next two digits (HS-6) are even more specific, e.g. 09.02.10 Green tea (not fermented)... Up to the HS-6 digit level, all countries classify products in the same way (a few exceptions exist where some countries apply old versions of the HS).
16
effectiveness of trade: first the potential sectors are selected, i.e., those with index IC>1, and then, among the potential sectors, those with EC<1 are taken, i.e., those that would not have effective trade.
Export Opportunities from Portugal to Poland
Based in Feitoria Prime Market Model there are 126 export opportunities (table 3, where is shown only the TOP10) sorted by value of Poland imports from World (largest to smallest) and they are complemented with the imports dynamism (the average growth rate in medium term, 2012-2016, and short term, 2015-2016).
Table 3 Top 10 Export Opportunities from Portugal to Poland
DIMENSION POLAND Imports from WORLD 2016 WORLD CAGR12-16 WORLD CAGR15-16
1 8704 Motor vehicles for the transport of goods, incl. chassis with engine and cab 1 378 256 7.00% 4.9%
2 3901 Polymers of ethylene, in primary forms 1 104 658 2.37% 1.4%
3 8481 Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances for pipes, boiler shells, tanks, vats or the like, ... 980 260 5.39% 0.8% 4 0302 Fish, fresh or chilled (excluding fish fillets and other fish meat of heading 0304) 933 182 15.16% 12.4% 5 3923 Articles for the conveyance or packaging of goods, of plastics; stoppers, lids, caps and other ... 835 758 4.87% 0.4% 6 6204 Women's or girls' suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, dresses, skirts, divided skirts, trousers, ... 733 495 7.72% 1.2%
7 8501 Electric motors and generators (excluding generating sets) 733 456 9.03% 3.0%
8 4805 Other paper and paperboard, uncoated, in rolls of a width > 36 cm or in square or rectangular ... 695 727 6.00% 1.2% 9 8537 Boards, panels, consoles, desks, cabinets and other bases, equipped with two or more apparatus ... 602 462 15.34% 6.1% 10 6110 Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles, knitted or crocheted (excluding ... 580 720 12.23% 4.4% 11 0304 Fish fillets and other fish meat, whether or not minced, fresh, chilled or frozen 558 217 6.18% 5.1% 12 9403 Furniture and parts thereof, n.e.s. (excluding seats and medical, surgical, dental or veterinary ... 548 514 5.49% 2.3% 13 6203 Men's or boys' suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches ... 532 996 15.16% 11.7% 14 4811 Paper, paperboard, cellulose wadding and webs of cellulose fibres, coated, impregnated, covered, ... 520 959 2.62% 2.8% 15 3917 Tubes, pipes and hoses, and fittings therefor, e.g. joints, elbows, flanges, of plastics 515 033 5.33% 4.2% 16 3402 Organic surface-active agents (excluding soap); surface-active preparations, washing preparations, ... 500 368 4.69% 0.4% 17 7306 Tubes, pipes and hollow profiles "e.g., open seam or welded, riveted or similarly closed", ... 490 509 3.83% 1.2% 18 4005 Compounded rubber, unvulcanised, in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip (excluding ... 404 062 7.71% 4.7% 19 6104 Women's or girls' suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, dresses, skirts, divided skirts, trousers, ... 369 291 14.80% 4.1%
20 0103 Live swine 362 108 3.51% 9.8%
21 3909 Amino-resins, phenolic resins and polyurethanes, in primary forms 342 293 7.23% 3.6%
22 6307 Made-up articles of textile materials, incl. dress patterns, n.e.s. 333 699 14.22% 9.0% 23 7323 Table, kitchen or other household articles, and parts thereof, of iron or steel; iron or steel ... 328 966 30.38% 59.4% 24 9619 Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins and napkin liners for babies, and similar articles, ... 296 669 20.27% 20.8% 25 8511 Electrical ignition or starting equipment of a kind used for spark-ignition or compression-ignition ... 274 877 10.14% 6.9% 26 8503 Parts suitable for use solely or principally with electric motors and generators, electric ... 254 169 7.73% 0.1% 27 6206 Women's or girls' blouses, shirts and shirt-blouses (excluding knitted or crocheted and vests) 249 418 19.17% 4.7% 28 3105 Mineral or chemical fertilisers containing two or three of the fertilising elements nitrogen, ... 247 735 12.62% 2.5% 29 0303 Frozen fish (excluding fish fillets and other fish meat of heading 0304) 216 047 8.18% 14.9% 30 6302 Bedlinen, table linen, toilet linen and kitchen linen of all types of textile materials (excluding ... 209 490 16.11% 8.9% 31 8707 Bodies, incl. cabs, for tractors, motor vehicles for the transport of ten or more persons, ... 192 623 18.30% 10.6% 32 3209 Paints and varnishes, incl. enamels and lacquers, based on synthetic polymers or chemically ... 190 811 3.68% 0.8% 33 3916 Monofilament of which any cross-sectional dimension > 1 mm, rods, sticks and profile shapes, ... 183 104 2.62% 4.2% 34 8403 Central heating boilers, non-electric; parts thereof (excluding vapour generating boilers and ... 171 882 3.48% 3.3% 35 8301 Padlocks and locks "key, combination or electrically operated", of base metal; clasps and frames ... 170 451 8.09% 8.1% 36 4009 Tubes, pipes and hoses, of vulcanised rubber other than hard rubber, with or without their ... 170 116 4.46% 2.9% 37 6111 Babies' garments and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted (excluding hats) 165 488 30.72% 32.4% 38 8526 Radar apparatus, radio navigational aid apparatus and radio remote control apparatus 164 318 19.17% 28.5% 39 4803 Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel or napkin stock and similar paper for household or sanitary ... 146 078 14.76% 15.8% 40 7321 Stoves, ranges, grates, cookers, incl. those with subsidiary boilers for central heating, barbecues, ... 141 236 7.19% 11.4% 41 6212 Brassieres, girdles, corsets, braces, suspenders, garters and similar articles and parts thereof, ... 136 045 13.80% 4.4% 42 0602 Live plants incl. their roots, cuttings and slips; mushroom spawn (excluding bulbs, tubers, ... 134 158 3.06% 0.6% 43 2103 Sauce and preparations therefor; mixed condiments and mixed seasonings; mustard flour and meal, ... 134 007 6.86% 6.3% 44 6205 Men's or boys' shirts (excluding knitted or crocheted, nightshirts, singlets and other vests) 132 134 10.99% 2.8% 45 7211 Flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel, of a width of < 600 mm, hot-rolled or cold-rolled ... 131 920 0.32% 0.9% 46 3003 Medicaments consisting of two or more constituents mixed together for therapeutic or prophylactic ... 130 176 15.80% 6.6%
47 7801 Unwrought lead : 126 269 12.52% 1.3%
48 2402 Cigars, cheroots, cigarillos and cigarettes of tobacco or of tobacco substitutes 123 761 24.00% 7.8% 49 0401 Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter 120 548 11.91% 19.8%
50 8702 Motor vehicles for the transport of >= 10 persons, incl. driver 117 605 5.41% 5.1%
51 6108 Women's or girls' slips, petticoats, briefs, panties, nightdresses, pyjamas, négligés, bathrobes, ... 117 393 15.21% 8.7% 52 5105 Wool and fine or coarse animal hair, carded or combed, incl. combed wool in fragments 106 124 5.12% 18.7% 53 0811 Fruit and nuts, uncooked or cooked by steaming or boiling in water, frozen, whether or not ... 100 158 7.04% 3.2% 54 4823 Paper, paperboard, cellulose wadding and webs of cellulose fibres, in strips or rolls of a ... 99 629 3.15% 3.1% 55 7013 Glassware of a kind used for table, kitchen, toilet, office, indoor decoration or similar purposes ... 96 278 5.50% 9.1% 56 6114 Special garments for professional, sporting or other purposes, n.e.s., knitted or crocheted 91 925 38.89% 55.9% 57 5703 Carpets and other textile floor coverings, tufted "needle punched", whether or not made up 91 227 3.06% 3.7% 58 6908 Glazed ceramic flags and paving, hearth or wall tiles; glazed ceramic mosaic cubes and the ... 90 289 9.36% 9.0% 59 6806 Slag-wool, rock-wool and similar mineral wools; exfoliated vermiculite, expanded clays, foamed ... 88 256 8.77% 4.2% 60 7215 Bars and rods, of iron or non-alloy steel, cold-formed or cold-finished, whether or not further ... 88 231 0.96% 1.9% 61 8478 Machinery for preparing or making up tobacco, not specified or included elsewhere in this chapter; ... 85 421 29.75% 22.6% 62 9029 Revolution counters, production counters, taximeters, milometers, pedometers and the like (excluding ... 84 523 11.01% 6.2% 63 1507 Soya-bean oil and its fractions, whether or not refined (excluding chemically modified) 82 764 5.51% 16.3%
DYNAMISM
Number Code 4d Product label
Source: COMTRADE, Feitoria Prime Market Model. Unity: thousand EUR.
CAGR: Compound annual grow th rate.
Source: COMTRADE, Feitoria Prime Market Model Unity: thousand EUR
CAGR: Compound annual growth rate
Export Opportunities from Poland to Portugal
Based in Feitoria Prime Market Model there are 134 export opportunities (table 4, where is shown only the TOP10) sorted by value of Portugal imports from World (largest to smallest) and they are complemented with the imports dynamism (the average growth rate in medium term, 2012-2016, and short term, 2015-2016).
Table 4 TOP10 Export Opportunities from Poland to Portugal
SIZE 2016 PORTUGAL Imports from WORLD WORLD CAGR12-16 WORLD CAGR15-16
1 8701 Tractors (other than tractors of heading 8709) 413 864 18.4% 6.0% 2 3907 Polyacetals, other polyethers and epoxide resins, in primary forms; polycarbonates, alkyd resins, ... 383 123 4.1% 2.0% 3 4011 New pneumatic tyres, of rubber 365 779 4.0% 1.5% 4 0305 Fish, fit for human consumption, dried, salted or in brine; smoked fish, fit for human consumption, ... 354 393 2.5% 6.0% 5 8408 Compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine "diesel or semi-diesel engine" 269 085 3.7% 1.9% 6 3920 Plates, sheets, film, foil and strip, of non-cellular plastics, not reinforced, laminated, ... 230 339 4.2% 1.7% 7 2309 Preparations of a kind used in animal feeding 230 103 1.9% 1.6% 8 6109 T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knitted or crocheted 221 168 5.7% 2.5% 9 0901 Coffee, whether or not roasted or decaffeinated; coffee husks and skins; coffee substitutes ... 220 406 0.5% 1.9% 10 3304 Beauty or make-up preparations and preparations for the care of the skin, incl. sunscreen or ... 209 764 5.2% 4.1% 11 1806 Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa 179 948 4.5% 1.6%
12 2106 Food preparations, n.e.s. 179 836 1.9% 4.2%
13 6406 Parts of footwear, incl. uppers whether or not attached to soles other than outer soles; removable ... 174 370 7.2% 3.7% 14 8531 Electric sound or visual signalling apparatus, e.g. bells, sirens, indicator panels, burglar ... 171 963 4.0% 10.6% 15 6402 Footwear with outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics (excluding waterproof footwear of ... 170 356 10.2% 9.1% 16 7326 Articles of iron or steel, n.e.s. (excluding cast articles) 164 295 2.8% 1.7%
17 0406 Cheese and curd 163 245 4.7% 1.7%
18 4403 Wood in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared (excluding ... 145 569 2.2% 2.7% 19 1604 Prepared or preserved fish; caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs 135 589 5.9% 7.3% 20 8716 Trailers and semi-trailers; other vehicles, not mechanically propelled (excluding railway and ... 133 761 27.4% 13.0% 21 3921 Plates, sheets, film, foil and strip, of plastics, reinforced, laminated, supported or similarly ... 127 113 7.9% 3.4% 22 4501 Natural cork, raw or merely surface-worked or otherwise cleaned; cork waste; crushed, powdered ... 123 878 6.6% 9.8% 23 8302 Base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles suitable for furniture, doors, staircases, ... 121 622 5.2% 5.8% 24 4401 Fuel wood, in logs, billets, twigs, faggots or similar forms; wood in chips or particles; sawdust ... 113 532 19.5% 8.6% 25 7308 Structures and parts of structures "e.g., bridges and bridge-sections, lock-gates, towers, ... 98 000 5.5% 10.1% 26 2009 Fruit juices, incl. grape must, and vegetable juices, unfermented, not containing added spirit, ... 97 679 1.5% 7.9% 27 1602 Prepared or preserved meat, offal or blood (excluding sausages and similar products, and meat ... 95 488 5.5% 10.6% 28 3924 Tableware, kitchenware, other household articles and toilet articles, of plastics (excluding ... 92 730 10.1% 7.5% 29 4104 Tanned or crust hides and skins of bovine "incl. buffalo" or equine animals, without hair on, ... 92 482 21.4% 16.3% 30 7604 Bars, rods and profiles, of aluminium, n.e.s. 91 890 6.3% 2.5% 31 7010 Carboys, bottles, flasks, jars, pots, phials, ampoules and other containers, of glass, of a ... 90 739 6.4% 5.5% 32 4016 Articles of vulcanised rubber (excluding hard rubber), n.e.s. 89 277 5.0% 1.3% 33 8466 Parts and accessories suitable for use solely or principally with the machine tools of heading ... 82 175 4.6% 1.3% 34 3919 Self-adhesive plates, sheets, film, foil, tape, strip and other flat shapes, of plastics, whether ... 77 550 5.9% 3.2% 35 6202 Women's or girls' overcoats, car coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks, incl. ski jackets, windcheaters, ... 76 764 10.1% 4.9% 36 8424 Mechanical appliances, whether or not hand-operated, for projecting, dispersing or spraying ... 73 251 9.8% 0.2% 37 2004 Vegetables prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, frozen (excluding ... 71 506 8.8% 9.2% 38 2105 Ice cream and other edible ice, whether or not containing cocoa 71 097 3.7% 4.1% 39 4802 Uncoated paper and paperboard, of a kind used for writing, printing or other graphic purposes, ... 67 495 6.9% 2.0% 40 9504 Video game consoles and machines, articles for funfair, table or parlour games, incl. pintables, ... 65 914 4.9% 2.4% 41 2836 Carbonates; peroxocarbonates "percarbonates"; commercial ammonium carbonate containing ammonium ... 65 482 25.2% 2.7% 42 2008 Fruits, nuts and other edible parts of plants, prepared or preserved, whether or not containing ... 60 625 5.6% 7.0% 43 0808 Apples, pears and quinces, fresh 60 442 7.7% 17.6% 44 1518 Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their fractions, boiled, oxidised, dehydrated, sulphurised, ... 57 733 71.3% 51.1% 45 0709 Other vegetables, fresh or chilled (excluding potatoes, tomatoes, alliaceous vegetables, edible ... 56 833 13.4% 2.9% 46 6201 Men's or boys' overcoats, car coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks, incl. ski jackets, windcheaters, ... 54 217 6.8% 1.3% 47 7616 Articles of aluminium, n.e.s. 52 549 3.8% 2.4% 48 1902 Pasta, whether or not cooked or stuffed with meat or other substances or otherwise prepared, ... 51 637 4.7% 2.8% 49 8451 Machinery (excluding of heading 8450) for washing, cleaning, wringing, drying, ironing, pressing ... 51 634 20.0% 6.9% 50 5510 Yarn of artificial staple fibres (excluding sewing thread and yarn put up for retail sale) 50 218 4.6% 7.6% 51 6115 Pantyhose, tights, stockings, socks and other hosiery, incl. graduated compression hosiery ... 49 726 0.4% 0.1% 52 4901 Printed books, brochures and similar printed matter, whether or not in single sheets (excluding ... 46 997 3.7% 4.0% 53 7413 Stranded wire, cables, plaited bands and the like, of copper (excluding electrically insulated ... 45 913 36.0% 71.3%
54 7901 Unwrought zinc : 45 180 9.8% 16.9%
55 3809 Finishing agents, dye carriers to accelerate the dyeing or fixing of dyestuffs and other products ... 43 186 3.4% 0.7% 56 3306 Preparations for oral or dental hygiene, incl. denture fixative pastes and powders; yarn used ... 42 999 4.6% 8.8% 57 8439 Machinery for making pulp of fibrous cellulosic material or for making or finishing paper or ... 42 465 19.4% 13.3% 58 8508 Vacuum cleaners, incl. dry cleaners and wet vacuum cleaners 41 116 9.7% 6.9% 59 4821 Paper or paperboard labels of all kinds, whether or not printed 37 749 9.5% 1.7% 60 4101 Raw hides and skins of bovine "incl. buffalo" or equine animals, fresh, or salted, dried, limed, ... 35 261 7.0% 12.8% 61 3207 Prepared pigments, prepared opacifiers and prepared colours, vitrifiable enamels and glazes, ... 35 254 1.4% 2.0% 62 8459 Machine tools, incl. way-type unit head machines, for drilling, boring, milling, threading ... 35 056 9.3% 41.9% 63 7001 Cullet and other waste and scrap of glass; glass in the mass (excluding glass in the form of ... 35 000 11.6% 11.1% 64 2101 Extracts, essences and concentrates, of coffee, tea or maté and preparations with a basis of ... 34 864 2.7% 4.2% 65 4114 Chamois leather, incl. combination chamois leather (excluding glacé-tanned leather subsequently ... 33 958 12.5% 10.7% 66 7325 Articles of iron or steel, cast, n.e.s. 33 683 2.6% 3.6% 67 8465 Machine tools, incl. machines for nailing, stapling, glueing or otherwise assembling, for working ... 33 069 14.2% 3.3%
Source: COMTRADE, Feitoria Prime Market Model.
Number Code 4d Product label
DYNAMISM
Source: COMTRADE, Feitoria Prime Market Model Unity: thousand EUR
Conclusions
The commercial relations between Portugal and Poland increased from 415 million €, in 2001, to 1.304,8 million €, in 2016, which represents an increase of more than 300%.
In the period 2012 –2016 the average growth of exports from Portugal to Poland (7,5%) and from Poland to Portugal (10,6%) was higher than the average growth of exports to World (Portugal to World: 2,2% and Poland to World: 4,9%) which means that the bilateral trade among Portugal and Poland had strengthened.
In 2016, 60,5% of the total exports Portugal to Poland were concentrated in 24 products and 61,2% of the total exports Poland to Portugal were concentrated in 16 products.
As concerning bilateral trade opportunities, the FPM finds 126 export opportunities from Portugal to Poland and 134 from Poland to Portugal.
The present study may contribute to economic stability by choosing economies with better economic and political conditions for trading and by formulating policies in order to take advantage of the potential products for trading described. Support to the exports should be mainly focused on the following aspects: Promotion of articulation between state, institutes and enterprises, developing trade agreements; Favorable tax policy for exporting companies; Expansion of the credit for investment in modernization of enterprises; development of transport, communication, energy, water and other infrastructure relevant to business development; Simplification of export formalities; Creation and restructuring of productive centers. Surely that this can’t be done in one day but it is really desired to have better conditions to exports.
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