88
SELECTING 3D URBAN VISUALISATION MODELS FOR
DISASTER MANAGEMENT: A RULE-BASED APPROACH
Serkan Kemec
Middle East Technical University (METU), Department of Geodetic and Geographic Information Technologies (GGIT), Ankara, Turkey 1
Sisi Zlatanova
Delft University of Technology, OTB, Section GIS Technology, Delft, Netherlands 2
Sebnem Duzgun
Middle East Technical University (METU), Department of Geodetic and Geographic Information Technologies (GGIT), Ankara, Turkey 3
Keywords
CD(E%>$.(4+,";;-./?(F-#:$;-#$=-+.?(<-=GH4I?(D-#$#="%(4$.$/"J".=(
Abstract
(
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
1. Introduction
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`+;>"("=($;L(677ZSL(<-=GH4I(-#($.(aH<(#=$.,$%,(='$=($;;+N#(#"J$.=-&( $.,(/"+J"=%-&(-.0+%J$=-+.(=+(>"(-.="/%$=",(-.=+($(#-./;"(+."(J+,";L(5"J$.=-&?(/"+J"=%-&($.,( =+)+;+/-&$;($#)"&=#(+0(CD(&-=G(J+,";#($%"(&+K"%",(:#-./(='"(<-=GH4I(&;$##(,"0-.-=-+.#L( ( 1'-#()$)"%(-#(+%/$.-#",(-.=+(0-K"(#"&=-+.#L(1'"(."_=(#"&=-+.()%+K-,"#(='"(."",",(>$&M/%+:.,( -.0+%J$=-+.L( 5"&=-+.( C( -.=%+,:&"#( ='"( %:;"P>$#",( $))%+$&'( 0+%( #";"&=-./( $.( $))%+)%-$="( I+D( 0+%($(#)"&-0-&(,-#$#="%Q%-#M(K-#:$;-#$=-+.L(5"&=-+.([(,"J+.#=%$="#('+N(='"(,"&-#-+.(%:;"(J:#=(>"( $));-",L( 1'"( )$)"%( &+.&;:,"#( N-='( $( ,-#&:##-+.( +0( ='"( $,K$.=$/"#( $.,( ,-#$,K$.=$/"#( +0( ='"( %:;"P>$#",($))%+$&'(:#",($.,(+:=;-."()+##->;"(=+)-&#(0+%(0:=:%"(%"#"$%&'L(
2. Background
2.( +%,"%( =+( "#=$>;-#'( $( ;-.M( >"=N"".( $( .$=:%$;( '$O$%,( =G)"( $.,( $( )$%=-&:;$%( CD( J+,";?( =N+( /%+:)#( +0( &%-="%-$( J:#=( >"( &+.#-,"%",?( .$J";G urban( $.,( hazardL( U'-;"( :%>$.( &%-="%-$( =$M"( -.=+($&&+:.=(='"(&'$%$&="%-#=-&#(+0($(#)"&-0-&(:%>$.($%"$?(='"('$O$%,(&%-="%-$($=="J)=(=+(&;$##-0G( ='"('$O$%,L((
(
E%>$.( #G#="J#( $%"( &+J);"_?( &+J)%-#-./( )'G#-&$;( $.,( #+&-+P"&+.+J-&( #:>P#G#="J#L( 4+%"+K"%?( $.( :%>$.( ="_=:%"( +.( $( #J$;;( $%"$( N-='( $( '-/'( )+):;$=-+.( ,".#-=G( J$M"#( ='"#"( &+J);"_( #=%:&=:%"#( ,-00-&:;=( =+( :.,"%#=$.,?( '".&"( ='"( ."",( 0+%( $( J+%"( ,"=$-;",( $))%+$&'L( E%>$.($%"$#(&$.(>"(&'$%$&="%-#",(>G(=N+(#:>P&%-="%-$(R5:,'-%$("=($;L(677[SW((
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! 1'"( Urban Area Extent( -#( %";$=",( =+( ='"( #-O"( +0( ='"( :%>$.( $%"$L( 9.( $%"$( N-='( $( )+):;$=-+.( $>+K"( Z777( $.,( N-='+:=( $.( $,b$&".=( #"==;"J".=( N-='-.( $( CPMJ( >:00"%( -#( $##:J",(=+(>"($.(:%>$.($%"$(Rc$;M($.,(d"=J$.(677[SL(
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2.( ='"( ;-="%$=:%"?( '$O$%,#( $%"( &;$##-0-",( $&&+%,-./( =+( ='"-%( &$:#"?( -L"L?( .$=:%$;( +%( J$.P J$,"Q="&'.+;+/-&$;( R4-=%+00( B8^^?( e$,,+N( $.,( c:;;+&M( 677C?( 5'$;:0( 677]S?( $.,( ='"-%( ".K-%+.J".=?(-L"L?($=J+#)'"%"P?('G,%+;+/GP?(;-='+#)'"%"P($.,(>-+#)'"%"P%";$=",(R`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f":J$..( B8CBS?(='"(=#:.$J-(-.=".#-=G(#&$;"(R5+;+K-"K(B8]^S?(='"(K+;&$.-&("%:)=-+.(#&$;"(R1#:G$(B8ZZ?( f"N'$;;( g( 5";0( B8^6?( h","=+K( B8^ZS( $.,( ='"( ;$.,#;-,"( ,$J$/"( -.=".#-=G( #&$;"( R9;"_$.,"%( B8^\>SL(1'"(-.=".#-=G(+0(='"('$O$%,($.,(='"("_=".=(+0(-=#(#)$=-$;("00"&=(+.($00"&=",($%"$#(0+%J( ='"(>$#-#(+0(:%>$.(J+,";;-./(#=:,-"#L(2.(='"(;-="%$=:%"?(.+(J$=:%"(&;$##-0-&$=-+.(J"='+,("_-#=#( =+(&+J)$%"(='"(#)$=-$;("00"&=#(+0(,-00"%".=(=G)"#(+0(,-#$#="%#L(`"J"&("=($;L(R6778S(-.=%+,:&",($(
B7B
#)$=-$;( '$O$%,( $))%+$&'( =+( &+J)$%"( '$O$%,+:#( "K".=( &'$%$&="%-#=-&#L( 9&&+%,-./( =+( ='-#( $))%+$&'?(#-_(#:>P&%-="%-$(%"0;"&=-./(='"()%"K$;".&"(+0(='"(,-#$#="%($%"(,"0-.",($#(0+;;+N#W(( (
! 1'"( Frequency( %"0;"&=#( ='"( =-J"( -.="%K$;( -.( N'-&'( $( .$=:%$;( ,-#$#="%( +&&:%#L( h+%( "_$J);"?("$%='V:$M"#(J$G(+&&:%(N-='($(;+/P.+%J$;(0%"V:".&G?(N'-;"(;$.,#;-,"#(J$G( +&&:%(#"$#+.$;;GL(
! 1'"(Duration(-#(='"()"%-+,(+0(=-J"(+K"%(N'-&'(='"(,-#$#="%(&+.=-.:"#L(e".&"?(-=(&$.( K$%G( 0%+J( #"&+.,#( =+( G"$%#L( h+%( "_$J);"?( "$%='V:$M"#( $%"( K"%G( #'+%=?( N'-;"( #+J"( =G)"#(+0(;$.,#;-,"#(R"L/L?(&%"")-./(#;+)"#S($%"(;+./P="%J()%+&"##"#L((
! 1'"( Spatial Dispersion( %"0"%#( =+( ='"( ,-#=%->:=-+.( )$=="%.( +0( $( '$O$%,( +K"%( ='"( /"+/%$)'-&($%"$(-.(N'-&'(='"('$O$%,(&$.(+&&:%L(1'-#()$%$J"="%(&$.(%$./"(0%+J(#J$;;( =+(;$%/"L((
! 1'"( Speed of Onset( -#( $.( -J)+%=$.=( K$%-$>;"( #-.&"( -=( ,"0-."#( ='"( N$%.-./( =-J"L( 3_=%"J"( "K".=#( #:&'( $#( "$%='V:$M"#?( J:,( 0;+N#( $.,( 0;$#'( 0;++,#( &$.( +&&:%( N-='( K-%=:$;;G( .+( N$%.-./L( a='"%( ,-#$#="%#?( #:&'( $#( &%"")-./( #;+)"#?( ,%+:/'=( $.,( ,"#"%=-0-&$=-+.?($&=(#;+N;G(+K"%($()"%-+,(+0(,$G#?(J+.='#(+%(G"$%#L((
! 1'"( Areal Extent( -#( ='"( #)$=-$;( ,".#-=G( +0( ='"( ,-#$#="%( +K"%( ='"( N'+;"( "$%='?( "L/L?( "$%='V:$M"(O+."#($%"(;-J-=",?($#(='"G($%"(/+K"%.",(>G(="&=+.-&();$="#L((
! 1'"("_=".=(+0(Indoor Penetration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h+%( -.#=$.&"?( $( 0;++%P ;"K";( -.,++%( %")%"#".=$=-+.( N+:;,( >"( >"."0-&-$;( -.( &$#"#( +0( =#:.$J-#( $.,( 0;++,#?( N'-&'( $%"( )"%K$#-K"( '$O$%,#?( =+( '";)( -,".=-0G( ='"( )+=".=-$;;G( $00"&=",( )$%=#( +0( ='"( >:-;,-./(+>b"&=#L((
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weighted summation?( ideal/reference/point?( outranking methods( $.,( analytic hierarchy process(R9e*SL((
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1'"(0-%#=(%:;"($##:J"#(='$=($;;($==%->:="#('$K"($(;-."$%(%";$=-+.(N-='(='"(,"&-#-+.L(1'-#(;-."$%( %";$=-+.( -J);-"#( ='$=( ='"( ,"&-#-+.( &$.( >"( J$,"( >G( #:JJ-./( ='"( #=$.,$%,-O",( K$;:"#( +0( ='"( $==%->:="#L( 1'"( N"-/'=#( $%"( +0=".( +>=$-.",( #-J);G( >G( $#M-./( ='"( ,"&-#-+.PJ$M"%( =+( $##-/.( .:J"%-&$;( K$;:"#( ,-%"&=;G( =+( "$&'( &%-="%-+.( +%( #:>P&%-="%-+.( $&&+%,-./( =+( $( )%"P,"0-.",( J$_-J:J($.,(J-.-J:J(V:$.=-#$=-+.(#&$;"(R-L"L?(7PB(+%(7PB77SL(2.(='"(#"&+.,(%:;"?(='"%"(-#($.( $##:J",(-,"$;(#+;:=-+.(R-.(='"+%GS?($.,(='"(#"=(+0()+##->;"($;="%.$=-K"#(-#(+%,"%",($&&+%,-./(=+( ='"-%( &;+#"."##( =+( ='-#( 'G)+='"=-&$;( -,"$;( #+;:=-+.L( 1'"( &;+#"#=( $;="%.$=-K"( =+( ='-#( )+-.=( -#( &'+#".( $#( ='"( >"#=( $;="%.$=-K"( R4$;&O"N#M-( B888SL( 1'"( +:=%$.M-./( J"='+,( ,"$;#( N-='( #-=:$=-+.#( -.( N'-&'( #+J"( $==%->:="#( '$K"( -.&+J);"="( K$;:"#L( 1'-#( J"='+,( )%+K-,"#( +.;G( $.( -.,-&$=-+.(0+%(='"(%$.M-./(+0($;="%.$=-K"#(R4$;&O"N#M-(677\SL(1'"(9e*(J"='+,#($%"(='"(+.;G( +."#(='$=(+%,"%(='"(&%-="%-$?(='"(#:>P&%-="%-$($.,(='"-%($==%->:="#(-.($(=%""L(1'"#"(J"='+,#(N+%M( >$#",( +.( ='%""( )%-.&-);"#W( decomposition?( comparative judgment( $.,( synthesis of prioritiesL(
B76
D"&+J)+#-=-+.( %"V:-%"#( ='$=( ='"( &%-="%-$( J:#=( >"( /%+:)",( $&&+%,-./;G?( N'-;"( &+J)$%$=-K"( b:,/J".=(%"V:-%"#(&$%"0:;(&+.#-,"%$=-+.(+0(='"();$&"(-.(='"(=%""?($.,(='"(#G.='"#-#(+0()%-+%-=-"#( %"0"%#(=+(='"(&+.#-,"%$=-+.(+0(='"(>%$.&'"#(-.(='"(=%""L(1'"#"()%-.&-);"#($%"($));-",(=+(&+.#=%:&=( ='"('-"%$%&'G(R4$;&O"N#M-(B888SL(1'"(9e*(J"='+,(-#(0+:.,(=+(>"(J+#=($))%+)%-$="(0+%(+:%( #=:,G(#-.&"(='"(N"-/'=#(+0(='"($==%->:="#(0+%(='"(#-=:$=-+.#(N"(&+.#-,"%(&$..+=(>"(&+.#-,"%",( "V:$;L((
3. Decision Rule
U"($));G(='"(9e*($))%+$&'(=+(>:-;,(%";$=-+.#(>"=N"".(='"(,-00"%".=(&%-="%-$?(#:>P&%-="%-$($.,( ='"-%( $==%->:="#( -.( +:%( %:;"P>$#",( =%""L( 1'"( &%-="%-$( "_$J-.",( -.( ='-#( #=:,G( $%"( ='"( K$;:$=-+.( )%-.&-);"#(='$=($%"($));-",(-.(='"(,"&-#-+.PJ$M-./()%+&"##L(5+J"(&%-="%-$(J$G($;#+('$K"(#:>P &%-="%-$L(9;;(+0(='"(&%-="%-$(R#:>P&%-="%-$S('$K"($==%->:="#(N-='(J"$#:%$>;"(-="J#?(N'-&'(=$M"(+.( N";;P,"0-.",(K$;:"#L(1'"(K$;:"#($%"(:#",(:;=-J$=";G(=+(&+J)$%"(,-00"%".=($;="%.$=-K"#L((Figure 1. Rule-based decision tree
(
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Figure 2. Iv value and level of detail relation
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h+%( Iv = 0?( ='"( 0:.&=-+. 0RDS( /-K"#( ='"( J+#=( ,"=$-;",( %"#:;=L( e+N"K"%?( ='-#( &$#"( #'+:;,( >"( -.="%)%"=",( $#( +."( -.( N'-&'( J+,";;-./( -#( .+=( %"V:-%",T( '".&"( ='"( )$%=-$;( 0:.&=-+.( +0( R]S( ";-J-.$="#(='-#(&$#"L(U"(,"0-."(='"(normalised intensity value Ivnorm($#W(((
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4. Application
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1+( ,"="%J-."( ='"( 0%"V:".&G( +0( "$%='V:$M"#( -.( 3#M-#"'-%( $.,( &+J)$%"( ='-#( =+( ='"( &+J):=",( K$;:"( +0( f?( N"( :#"( ='"( <+;:J>-$( E.-K"%#-=G( <e!!( 677Z?( H;+>$;( 3$%='V:$M"( e$O$%,( h%"V:".&G( $.,( D-#=%->:=-+.( ,$=$L( 1'"( "$%='V:$M"( ,$=$>$#"( :#",( RH;+>$;( 5"-#J-&( e$O$%,( *%+/%$JS( &+K"%#( "$%='V:$M"#( N-='( J$/.-=:,"#( n[LZ( +.( ='"( !-&'="%( #&$;"( +&&:%%-./( >"=N"".( B8]\( $.,( 6776L( 1'"( /%-,( ,$=$( :#",( #'+N( ='"( /;+>$;( 0%"V:".&G( ,-#=%->:=-+.( +0( "$%='V:$M"#L( H%-,( K$;:"#( N"%"( &$="/+%-#",( RBPB7S?( $#( #'+N.( -.( h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n(7( 0RDS(( 0RDS(k(( ( ( ( ( 20(((((((((2K(k7(0+%(J+,";;-./ .+(."",(((((((( R]S( R^S( R8S(
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Figure 3. (a) Columbia University Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution output; dark grids indicate geographic areas with higher frequencies of earthquakes. (b)Frequency distribution of earthquakes across Turkey.
( (a) (b) 1'"(="J)+%$;('$O$%,($==%->:="#(d($., so(N"%"(,"%-K",(0%+J("J)-%-&$;(&+J)$%-#+.#L(<+J)$%",( =+(+='"%( .$=:%$;('$O$%,#?("$%='V:$M"#(&$.(>"(&;$##-0-",($#('$O$%,#(+0(#'+%=(,:%$=-+.($.,(0$#=( #)"",(+0(+.#"=(Rc:%=+.("=($;L(B88CSL(1'"%"0+%"?(='"(d($.,(so($==%->:="#($%"(>+='(/-K".(K$;:"#(+0( B(+.(='"(#&$;"(+0(BPZL((( (
1'"( #)$=-$;( '$O$%,( "_=".=( $==%->:=" ae( -#( %";$=",( =+( ='"( #)$=-$;( ,".#-=G( +0( ='"( '$O$%,L( 1'"( "$%='V:$M"( ,$=$>$#"( +0( ='"( H"."%$;( D-%"&=+%$="( +0( D-#$#="%( 900$-%#( 3$%='V:$M"( !"#"$%&'( D")$%=J".=( RD9D( 6778S( N$#( :#",( =+( -,".=-0G( "$%='V:$M"#( ='$=( +&&:%%",( >"=N"".( B88B( =+( 6778($.,('$,(J$/.-=:,"#(/%"$="%(='$.([(+.(='"(!-&'="%(#&$;"L(9.("$%='V:$M"(#)$=-$;(,".#-=G( J$)(Rh-/:%"([>S(N$#(/"."%$=",(:#-./(='-#(,$=$#"=L(1'"(#$J"(`"%.";(,".#-=G(0:.&=-+.(R+>=$-.",( :#-./(35!2(9%&H25(#+0=N$%"?($#(-.(='"(f(&$;&:;$=-+.S(='$=(N$#($));-",(=+(&$;&:;$=" f(N$#(:#",( $/$-.?( N-='( ='"( J$/.-=:,"#( +0( ='"( "$%='V:$M"#( &+.#=-=:=-./( ='"( N"-/'=#L( 3#M-#"'-%( -#( -.( ='"( #"&+.,P'-/'"#=("$%='V:$M"(+&&:%%".&"(O+."?(#+(='"($==%->:="(K$;:"(+0(ae(-#([L( ( 1'"($==%->:="(sd(%"0"%#(=+(='"(#)$=-$;(,-#=%->:=-+.()$=="%.(+0($('$O$%,(+K"%(='"(/"+/%$)'-&($%"$(-.( N'-&'(='"('$O$%,(&$.(+&&:%L(9()%+>$>-;-#=-&($))%+$&'(N$#($));-",(>G(oOJ".("=($;L(RB88]S(=+( 0-.,(='"( "$%='V:$M"('$O$%,(O+."#( 0+%($( Z7PG"$%()"%-+,(N-='($( &+.0-,".&"( ;"K";( 87i(Rh-/:%"( [$SL(9&&+%,-./(=+(='-#(#=:,G?(3#M-#"'-%(-#(-.(='"(0+:%='(J+#=(#"K"%"('$O$%,(O+."(+.(='"(#&$;"(+0( BPZ?( N'"%"( 0-K"( -.,-&$="#( $%"$#( +0( J+#=( ,$./"%T( '".&"?( sd( N$#( $##-/.",( $( K$;:"( +0( [L( 1'"( -.,++%( )"."=%$=-+.( )$%$J"="%( i N$#( $##-/.",( $( K$;:"( +0( 7?( #-.&"( ='"%"( $%"( .+( ;"$M#( +0( '$O$%,+:#(J$="%-$;(-.=+(='"(>:-;=(".K-%+.J".=(,:%-./("$%='V:$M"#L((
Figure 4. (a) Turkey earthquake hazard zones (Özmen et al. 1997), (b) Earthquake spatial density classification
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3K$;:$=-+.( +0( ='"( $==%->:="#( p( $.,( aue( N$#( &+.,:&=",( 0+%( CC8( #"==;"J".=#( -.( 1:%M"GL( 1'"( ,"0-.-=-+.(+0(:%>$.(-.(='"(,$=$>$#"(:#",?(N'-&'(-.&;:,"#(='"(53D9<(/%-,,",()+):;$=-+.(+0(='"( N+%;,($.,(='"(/;+>$;(%:%$;(A(:%>$.(J$))-./()%+b"&=?(-#($();$&"(N-='($()+):;$=-+.($>+K"(ZL777( 0+%(N'-&'(='"%"($%"(.+($,b$&".=(#"==;"J".=()+-.=#(N-='-.($(CPMJ(>:00"%(+0(='"(:%>$.($%"$(Rc$;M( $.,( d"=J$.( 677[SL( D$=$( )%+&"##-./( #=")#( =+( &+J):="( $%"$( #-O"#( $.,( )+):;$=-+.( ,".#-=-"#( -.&;:,"( $( J$)( )%+b"&=-+.( &+.K"%#-+.( +0( $( /;+>$;( #)'"%-&$;( #G#="J( RUH5^[S( =+( $( ;+&$;( <$%="#-$.(#G#="J(RE14S( $.,($(#)$=-$;( b+-.(+)"%$=-+.(>"=N"".(:%>$.("_=".=()+;G/+.(+>b"&=#( $.,(:%>$.()+-.=(+>b"&=#(:#-./(#"==;"J".=()+):;$=-+.(-.0+%J$=-+.L(<$;&:;$=-+.(+0(='"($%"$($.,( )+):;$=-+.(,".#-=G(aue $.,(p?(%"#)"&=-K";G?(&+.#=-=:="#(='"(;$#=(#=")(-.()%+&"##(+0(,"0-.-./(='"( &+J);"="(J+,";($==%->:="#(0+%(='"(3#M-#"'-%(="#=(&$#"L(1+(,"0-."(p($.,(aue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p(k(6(R1$>;"(BSL( 2.( ='-#( $==%->:="( $))%+$&'?( '-/'( )+):;$=-+.( ,".#-=G( K$;:"#( J$)( =+( ;+N( p( $==%->:="( K$;:"#?( -.,-&$=-./(='$=(='"G(%"V:-%"(-.=".#-K"(J+,";;-./($))%+$&'"#L(( (
Table 1. Distribution of population density values
Classification # of settlements % p 7L\Z(p()+)q,".#(!([L[]( B7^( 7LCB( Z( [L[](p()+)q,".#(!(ZLC7( [\( 7LB[( [( ZLC7(p()+)q,".#(!(8LB6( BB8( 7LCZ( C( 8LB6(p()+)q,".#(!(6\L][( \[( 7LB8( 6( 6\L][(p()+)q,".#(!B7^L7Z( 6( 7L7B( B( ( 5=$=-#=-&#(%";$=",(=+(='"($%"$("_=".=($==%->:="W(1'"(J-.-J:J(:%>$.($%"$;("_=".=(-#(]6\('$($.,( ='"( J$_-J:J( -#( B88\C6( '$?( N-='( $( J"$.( +0( B6]C\( $.,( #=$.,$%,( ,"K-$=-+.( +0( 6B8[[L( h+%( 3#M-#"'-%?(='"(K$;:"(+0(aue(Z?(/-K".(-=#($%"$;("_=".=(+0(C[67^('"&=$%"#(R1$>;"(ZSL( (
Table 2. Distribution of areal extents
Classification # of settlements % aue ]6\(p($%"$(#-O"(!([ZB\( 87( 7L6]( B( [ZB\(p($%"$(#-O"(!(Z7^8( 66( 7L7\( 6( Z7^8(p($%"$(#-O"(!(^^^7( B7^( 7LC6( C( ^^^7(p($%"$(#-O"(!(CC8[7( 8^( 7L68( [( CC8[7(p($%"$(#-O"(!(B88\C6( 6B( 7L7\( Z(
B7]
Figure 5. (a) Values of the (a) p and (b) aue attributes for Eskisehir and nearby areas
( R$S( R>S( ( ( 1$>;"(C(%")%"#".=#(='"($==%->:="(K$;:"#(0+%(='"(&$#"(#=:,GL(9(,"&-#-+.(%:;"(N$#($));-",(:#-./( ='"#"(K$;:"#(=+(,"="%J-."(='"(;"K";(+0(,"=$-;(."",",(0+%(='"(:%>$.(J+,";L(( (
Table 3. Eskisehir earthquake attributes
Criteria H U Sub-criteria Ht Hs Attribute f d so ae sd i P aue Value 5 1 1 4 4 0 2 5 2K(k(lRRRB(Y(B(Y(ZS(Q(CS(Y(RRR[(Y([S(Q(6SS(Q(6S(_(RRZ(Y(6S(Q(6Sm(k(BBL7^( ( 3.="%-./(='"#"($==%->:="(K$;:"#(-.=+("V:$=-+.(R\SW( ( 2K.+%J(k(RRBBL7^(P(6ZS(Q(R7(P(6ZSS(_([S(%+:.,(k(R6L6CS(%+:.,(k(6( ( $.,(.+%J$;-O-./(='"(&$;&:;$=",(K$;:"(+0(2K(:#-./("V:$=-+.(R^S(G-";,#W( ( D(k(6(Y(R7Q6S(k(6( ( 1'"(%"#:;=(+0(='"(,"&-#-+.(%:;"(-#(='$=(='"(,"=$-;(;"K";(RDS(+0(='"(:%>$.(J+,";(RDS(%"V:-%",(0+%( ='-#( #)"&-0-&( =G)"( +0( ,-#$#="%( $.,( ='-#( )$%=-&:;$%( &-=G( J:#=( >"( 6L( 9&&+%,-./( =+( ='"( I+D6( ,"0-.-=-+.( +0( ='"( <-=GH4I?( ='-#( %"V:-%"#( ='$=( >:-;,-./( +>b"&=#( #'+N( ,-00"%".=-$=",( %++0( #=%:&=:%"#($.,(="_=:%"#?($.,(K"/"=$=-+.(+>b"&=#(J$G($;#+(>"(%")%"#".=",L((
(
U"( .+="( ='$=( i( =$M"( $( K$;:"( +0( O"%+( '"%"?( >"&$:#"( ='"%"( -#( .+( -.,++%( )"."=%$=-+.( 0+%( ='"( ,-#$#="%L( 1'-#( $==%->:="( -#( &;+#";G( %";$=",( =+( ='"( -.,++%( I+DL( 2.( #+J"( &$#"#?( &+$%#"( -.,++%( ,"=$-;(J$G(>"(J+%"($))%+)%-$="(='$.($(0-.";G(,"=$-;",(I+D?($#(/-K".(>G(IaD[(+0(<-=GH4IL( 4+%"+K"%?( &+J>-.$=-+.#( +0( -.,++%Q+:=,++%( <-=GH4I( IaD#( J$G( >"( J+%"( $))%+)%-$="L( h+%( "_$J);"?($(;+N(+:=,++%(RIaDBS(%"#+;:=-+.(N-='($(;+N(-.,++%(%"#+;:=-+.(R0;++%(;"K";S(&$.(>"( :#",(0+%($('$O$%,($));-&$=-+.(='$=(-#()"%K$#-K"($.,('$#(-.,++%()"."=%$=-+.(R"L/L?(=#:.$J-SL(
5. Conclusions
3-/'=( $==%->:="#($%"( -.&+%)+%$=",( -.=+(='"()%+)+#",(,"&-#-+.(%:;"(=+("#=$>;-#'($(;-.M(>"=N"".( ='"( '$O$%,( =G)"( $.,( ='"( ;"K";( +0( #)$=-$;( ,"=$-;( ."",",( -.( $( CD( :%>$.( J+,";( 0+%( K-#:$;-#-./( K:;."%$>-;-=-"#( -.( ,-#$#="%( J$.$/"J".=L( 1'"( $==%->:="#( $%"( ,-K-,",( -.=+( =N+( J$-.( /%+:)#W( '$O$%,P%";$=",( $==%->:="#?( -.&;:,-./( f R0%"V:".&GS, d R,:%$=-+.S, sd R#)$=-$;( ,-#)"%#-+.S, so R#)"",( +0( +.#"=S, ae R$%"$;( "_=".=S $., i R-.,++%( )"."=%$=-+.ST( $.,( :%>$.P%";$=",( $==%->:="#?( -.&;:,-./ aue R:%>$.( $%"$( "_=".=S( $., p R)+):;$=-+.( ,".#-=GS. 1'"( K$%-$>;"( D R;"K";( +0( -.,++%Q+:=,++%(,"=$-;S(,-%"&=;G()%+K-,"#(='"(."",",(I+D(+0(='"(CD(J+,";L 1'"()%"#".=",(%:;"P >$#",($))%+$&'(&$.(>"(:#",(>G(='"(="&'.-&$;(,-#$#="%(,"&-#-+.PJ$M"%(/%+:)($#($(=++;(=+(,"&-,"( RB7S( RBBS( RB6S(B7^
+.(='"(."",",(;"K";#(+0(,"=$-;#(-.(='"(CD(J+,";(%")%"#".=$=-+.#(+0(-.,++%($.,(+:=,++%(0"$=:%"#( 0+%($()$%=-&:;$%(,-#$#="%(#-J:;$=-+.($.,Q+%(K-#:$;-#$=-+.($));-&$=-+.L(
(
9;='+:/'(='"(0-%#=($));-&$=-+.(+0(='-#($))%+$&'(-#(K"%G()%+J-#-./?(0:%='"%(="#=#(N-='(,-00"%".=( &-=-"#?( &+:.=%-"#( $.,( ,-#$#="%#( $%"( ."",",L( 1'%""( +0( ='"( $==%->:="#( Rso, d, iS( $%"(%";$=",( =+( ='"( "J)-%-&$;(&'$%$&="%-#=-&#(+0(='"(&+.#-,"%",('$O$%,(R$.("$%='V:$M"(-.(='-#(&$#"SL(h-K"(Rf, sd, ae, aue?($.,(pS($%"(%";$=",(=+(='"(;+&$;(#)"&-0-&$=-+.(+0(='"('$O$%,($.,(='"(#"==;"J".=(&+.#-,"%",(0+%( ='"(CD(:%>$.(J+,";;-./($));-&$=-+.L(9==%->:="#(N-='(;+&$;(#)"&-0-&$=-+.#($%"(&$#"P,")".,".=L( h+%( "_$J);"?( ='"( #$J"( '$O$%,( &$#"( J$G( ."",( $( ,-00"%".=( J+,";( ,"=$-;( ;"K";( -.( $( ,-00"%".=( #"==;"J".=L(1'"(%"K"%#"(-#($;#+(=%:"L(1'"(#$J"(#"==;"J".=(J$G(%"V:-%"(,-00"%".=(CD(J+,";#(-0( ,-00"%".=(=G)"#(+0('$O$%,#($%"(&+.#-,"%",L(h:=:%"(%"#"$%&'(N-;;(-.K"#=-/$="(='"#"()+##->-;-=-"#(-.( ,"=$-;L(((( ( 9.+='"%(-J)+%=$.=(+>#"%K$=-+.(0%+J(='-#(0-%#=(="#=(&$#"(-#(='$=(IaD#?($#(&:%%".=;G(,"0-.",(>G( <-=GH4I?(J$G(.+=(>"(#:00-&-".=(0+%($;;(=G)"#(+0(,-#$#="%#L(1'"('-"%$%&'-&$;($))%+$&'($));-",( 0+%(='"(+:=,++%(I+D(&+:;,(>"(>"."0-&-$;(0+%(='"(-.,++%(I+DL(h:%='"%(-.K"#=-/$=-+.#(J$G($;#+( >"( ."",",( =+( +)=-J-O"( ='"( )%+&"##( 0+%( J:;=-P'$O$%,( $));-&$=-+.#L( h:=:%"( N+%M( N-;;( "_);+%"( ='"#"()+##->-;-=-"#(-.(,"=$-;L((
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Author Biography
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