• Nie Znaleziono Wyników

„wymiany z produkcją” rozszerzony jest o:

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "„wymiany z produkcją” rozszerzony jest o:"

Copied!
57
0
0

Pełen tekst

(1)

1

MINIMAL

A Simplified General Equilibrium Model

(2)

Model MINIMAL (1)

Model MINMAL w stosunku do modelu

„wymiany z produkcją” rozszerzony jest o:

• nakłady materiałowe,

• nakłady materiałowe,

• handel zagraniczny (eksport i import),

• dodatkowe elementy popytu finalnego (spożycie rządowe, inwestycje),

• podatki i cła.

(3)

Model MINIMAL (2)

• Model MINIMAL, w odróżnieniu od

modelu „wymiany z produkcją”, wyróżnia tylko jedno reprezentatywne

tylko jedno reprezentatywne gospodarstwo domowe.

• Możliwa interpretacja – wszystkie gospodarstwa są jednakowe (mają

jednakowe udziały we własności czynników produkcji). Nie da się badać efektów

redystrybucyjnych.

(4)

Model MINIMAL (3)

• Bazą danych modelu jest tablica przepływów międzygałęziowych (input-output).

(input-output).

(5)

Gałęzie/produkty

• W modelu MINIMAL występuje 7 gałęzi (AgricMining, Manufacture, Utilities,

Construction, TradeTranspt, FinanProprty, Construction, TradeTranspt, FinanProprty, Services) i tyle samo produktów.

• Zbiór gałęzi: IND; zbiór produktów: COM.

• Każda gałąź wytwarza tylko jeden rodzaj

produktów.

(6)

Czynniki produkcji

• Kapitał.

• Praca.

• Materiały (produkty).

• Materiały (produkty).

Kapitał i praca to tzw. pierwotne czynniki

produkcji (primary factors).

(7)

Elementy popytu

• Popyt finalny:

– popyt inwestycyjny (2),

– konsumpcja gospodarstw domowych (3),

Nr kategorii popytu w

oznaczeniach zmiennych

– konsumpcja gospodarstw domowych (3), – eksport (4)

– konsumpcja rządowa (5)

• Popyt pośredni (zużycie pośrednie) (1)

(8)

8

Excerpt 1a: Sets for users

Set ! User categories: IO table columns !

IND # Industries # (AgricMining, Manufacture, Utilities,

Construction, TradeTranspt, FinanProprty, Services);

! subscript i !

FINALUSER # Final demanders # (Investment, Households, Government, Exports);

USER # All users #= IND union FINALUSER; ! subscript u ! IMPUSER # Non-export demanders: users of imports #

IMPUSER # Non-export demanders: users of imports # (AgricMining, Manufacture, Utilities, Construction,

TradeTranspt, FinanProprty, Services, Investment, Households, Government);

Subset

IMPUSER is subset of USER;

IND is subset of IMPUSER;

(9)

9

Excerpt 1a: Sets for users

FINAL

Investment Households AgricMining

Manufacture

IMPUSER

USER

FINAL IND USER

Households Government Exports

Manufacture Utilities

Construction TradeTranspt FinanProprty Services

(10)

1

Model Database

0

Absorption Matrix

1 2 3 4 5

Producers Investors Household Export Government Total Sales Size ← I → ← 1 → ← 1 → ← 1 → ← 1 →

Domestic Flows

C

USE(commodity,"dom",user)

Imported

C USE(commodity,"imp",user)

memorize numbers

Imported Flows

C

USE(commodity,"imp",user)

Labour

1

FACTOR (labour)

C= Number of Commodities = 7 I = Number of Industries = 7 Capital

1

FACTOR (capital)

Output tax

1

V1PTX

Also V0MTX = Tax on Imports of each commodity

(11)

1

MINIMAL

1

Flows Database (million $ Australian, 1986-87)

All Users

Industries Final Demands

AgricMining Manufacture Utilities Construction TradeTranspt FinanProprty Services Investment Households Exports Government Total Domestic

AgricMining 5502 14658 1839 689 143 52 641 210 2316 18975 705 45730

Manufacture 4587 30009 643 12486 10200 3061 6947 10150 38537 10587 57 127264

Utilities 1345 2045 3261 176 979 2814 2037 0 3573 21 150 16401

Construction 89 55 13 0 438 1708 381 33809 0 29 3679 40201

TradeTranspt 2958 11539 694 3353 8892 3052 5680 4563 38211 9269 582 88793

FinanProprty 1754 6545 622 1886 9623 9819 6111 2412 33641 886 1221 74520

Services 403 1595 92 290 1316 1586 2210 18 28653 345 44293 80801

Imported

AgricMining 233 1677 1 49 7 3 145 9 340 6 2470

Manufacture 1305 12411 184 2518 2322 832 3232 9491 9792 0 42087

Utilities 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 3 0 14

Construction 0 1 0 0 3 0 8 68 0 2 82

TradeTranspt 104 259 11 34 703 142 258 41 1011 36 2599

FinanProprty 90 302 19 29 328 274 209 39 176 4 1470

Services 26 451 7 55 117 66 774 29 706 81 2312

Labour 10779 22512 3594 15008 35532 17095 43346 147866

Capital 11337 6359 4293 2160 10409 28873 4612 68043

Production tax 5217 16844 1126 1468 7780 5140 4208 41783

Total Cost 45730 127264 16401 40201 88793 74520 80801 60839 156959 40112 50816 782436

Tax on imports 497 5787 0 0 0 27 52

(12)

1

Excerpt 1b: Other sets; Flows Data

2

Set ! Input categories: IO table rows !

COM # Commodities # (AgricMining, Manufacture, Utilities, Construction, TradeTranspt, FinanProprty, Services); ! subscript c !

SRC # Source of commodities # (dom,imp); ! subscript s ! FAC # Primary factors # (Labour, Capital); ! subscript f !

Coefficient

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER) USE(c,s,u) # USE matrix #;

(all,f,FAC)(all,i,IND) FACTOR(f,i) # Wages and profits #;

(all,f,FAC)(all,i,IND) FACTOR(f,i) # Wages and profits #;

(all,i,IND) V1PTX(i) # Production tax revenue #;

(all,c,COM) V0MTX(c) # import tax revenue #;

File BASEDATA # Flows Data File #;

Read

USE from file BASEDATA header "USE";

FACTOR from file BASEDATA header "1FAC";

V0MTX from file BASEDATA header "0TAR";

V1PTX from file BASEDATA header "1PTX";

(13)

1

Excerpt 2: Useful aggregates of the data

3

Coefficient

(all,c,COM)(all,u,USER) USE_S(c,u) # USE matrix, dom+imp together#;

(all,u,USER) USE_CS(u) # Total user expenditure on goods #;

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s) # Total value of sales #;

(all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i) # Wages plus profits #;

(all,i,IND) V1TOT(i) # Industry Costs #;

(all,c,COM) V0CIF(c) # Aggregate imports at border prices #;

(all,c,COM) V0CIF(c) # Aggregate imports at border prices #;

Formula

(all,c,COM)(all,u,USER) USE_S(c,u) = sum{s,SRC,USE(c,s,u)};

(all,u,USER) USE_CS(u) = sum{c,COM,USE_S(c,u)};

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s) = sum{u,USER,USE(c,s,u)};

(all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i) = sum{f,FAC,FACTOR(f,i)};

(all,i,IND) V1TOT(i) = V1PRIM(i) + sum{c,COM,USE_S(c,i)};

(all,c,COM) V0CIF(c) = SALES(c,"imp") - V0MTX(c);

(14)

1

Excerpt 3: Total Demands for commodities

4

Variable

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER)

x(c,s,u) # demand by user u for good c, source s #;

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) x0(c,s) # Total demand for good c, source s #;

Equation E_x0

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s)*x0(c,s)= sum{u,USER,USE(c,s,u)*x(c,s,u)};

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s)*x0(c,s)= sum{u,USER,USE(c,s,u)*x(c,s,u)};

In the levels: X0(c,s) =

Σ Σ Σ Σ

X(c,s,u)

Percent change: X0(c,s)*x0(c,s) =

Σ Σ Σ Σ

X(c,s,u)*x(c,s,u)

X common price: P(c,s)*X0(c,s)*x0(c,s) =

Σ Σ Σ Σ

P(c,s)*X(c,s,u)*x(c,s,u) Finally: SALES(c,s)*x0(c,s) =

Σ Σ Σ Σ

USE(c,s,u)*x(c,s,u)

(15)

1

Excerpt 4: Imported/domestic Substitution

5

KEY

Inputs or Outputs Functional

Form

CES CES

up to Good C

Good 1

Bottom level of nesting structure is same for all local users CES CES

Imported Good C Domestic

Good C Imported

Good 1 Domestic

Good 1

(16)

Nowe mechanizmy* (1)

Nakłady materiałowe (zużycie pośrednie).

• Zapotrzebowanie na materiały w danej gałęzi proporcjonalne do jej produkcji.

gałęzi proporcjonalne do jej produkcji.

* Nowe w „stosunku do modelu wymiany z produkcją”.

(17)

Nowe mechanizmy (2)

Substytucja dóbr krajowych i importowanych.

• Odbiorcy (gospodarstwa domowe, producenci,

inwestorzy, rząd) zgłaszają popyt na „kompozyty”

produktów.

produktów.

• Skład kompozytu (tj. udział dóbr krajowych i

importowanych) zmienia się pod wpływem zmian relacji cen produktów krajowych i

importowanych.

• Możliwości substytucji opisuje funkcja CES.

(18)

Nowe mechanizmy (3)

Eksport.

• Popyt zagranicy na dobra krajowe jest funkcją relacji cen produktów krajowych do światowych cen tych samych produktów.

cen tych samych produktów.

• Siłę wpływu relatywnych cen na eksport wyrażona jest za pomocą (stałej) elastyczności.

• Eksport może zmieniać się też niezależnie od cen,

np. pod wpływem zmian koniunktury na świecie

(zmienne f4q).

(19)

1 9 Variable

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) p(c,s) # user price of good c, source s #;

(all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER) p_s(c,u) # user price of composite good c #;

(all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER) x_s(c,u) # use of composite good c #;

Coefficient

(all,c,COM) SIGMA(c) # elasticity of substitution: domestic/imported #;

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) SRCSHR(c,s,u) # imp/dom shares #;

Read SIGMA from file BASEDATA header "ARM";

Formula (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER)

Excerpt 4: CES Imported/domestic Substitution

Formula (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) SRCSHR(c,s,u) = USE(c,s,u)/USE_S(c,u);

Equation E_x

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER)

x(c,s,u) = x_s(c,u) - SIGMA(c)*[p(c,s) - p_s(c,u)];

Equation E_p_s

(all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER) p_s(c,u) = sum{s,SRC, SRCSHR(c,s,u)*p(c,s)};

x

s

= x

average

- σ σ σ[p σ

s

- p

average

] p

average

= Σ Σ Σ ΣS

s

.p

s

(20)

2

Excerpt 4: Numerical Example of CES demands

0

p = S

d

p

d

+ S

m

p

m

average price of dom and imp Manufactures x

d

= x - σ σ σ σ(p

d

- p) demand for domestic Manufactures

x

m

= x - σ σ σ σ(p

m

- p) demand for imported Manufactures Let p

m

=-10%, x=p

d

=0

σ σ

m d

Let S

m

=0.3 and σ σ σ σ=2. This gives:

p = -0.3*10 = -3 x

d

= - 2(- -3) = -6

x

m

= -2(-10 - - 3) = 14

Cheaper imports cause 14% increase in import volumes and 6% fall in domestic demand.

Effect on domestic sales is proportional to both S

m

and σ σ σ σ.

(21)

2

KEY 1

Inputs or Outputs Functional

Form

Leontief

up to Primary

Factors Good C

Good 1

Output

Nested Structure of Production

CES CES

CES

Capital Labour

Factors

Imported Good C Domestic

Good C Imported

Good 1 Domestic

Good 1

(22)

2

Demands for primary factors

2

Choose inputs of labour and capital, X1LAB(i) and X1CAP(i),

to minimize primary factor cost, P1LAB*X1LAB(i) + P1CAP(i)*X1CAP(i) where X1PRIM(i) = CES[ X1LAB(i), X1CAP(i) ],

regarding as fixed: P1LAB and P1CAP(i) and X1PRIM(i).

Answer: (all,i,IND)

x1lab(i) = x1prim(i) - SIGMA1PRIM(i)*[p1lab-p1prim(i)];

x1lab(i) = x1prim(i) - SIGMA1PRIM(i)*[p1lab-p1prim(i)];

x1cap(i) = x1prim(i) - SIGMA1PRIM(i)*[p1cap(i)-p1prim(i)];

V1PRIM(i)*p1prim(i) =

FACTOR("Labour",i)*p1lab + FACTOR("Capital",i)*p1cap(i);

Could write

p1prim(i) = S1LAB(i)*p1lab + S1CAP(i)*p1cap(i), x1prim(i) = S1LAB(i)*x1lab(i) + S1CAP(i)*x1cap(i)

S1LAB and S1CAP are shares of labour and capital in primary factor cost.

(23)

2

Excerpt 5: Demands for capital and labour

3

Variable

(all,i,IND) x1prim(i) # Industry demand for primary-factor composite #;

(all,i,IND) p1prim(i) # Price of primary factor composite #;

(all,i,IND) x1lab(i) # Employment by industry #;

p1lab # Economy-wide wage rate #;

(all,i,IND) x1cap(i) # Current capital stock #;

(all,i,IND) p1cap(i) # Rental price of capital #;

Coefficient (all,i,IND) SIGMA1PRIM(i) # CES substitution, primary factors #;

Read SIGMA1PRIM from file BASEDATA header "P028";

Read SIGMA1PRIM from file BASEDATA header "P028";

Equation E_x1lab

(all,i,IND) x1lab(i) = x1prim(i) - SIGMA1PRIM(i)*[p1lab-p1prim(i)];

Equation E_x1cap

(all,i,IND) x1cap(i) = x1prim(i) - SIGMA1PRIM(i)*[p1cap(i)-p1prim(i)];

Equation E_p1prim

(all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i)*p1prim(i)

= FACTOR("Labour",i)*p1lab + FACTOR("Capital",i)*p1cap(i);

(24)

2

Excerpt 6: Top level industry demands

4

X_S(c,i) = A_S(c,i).X1TOT(i), i∈∈IND, c∈∈COM X1PRIM(i) = A1PRIM(i).X1TOT(i), i∈∈IND

Variable

(all,i,IND) x1tot(i) # Industry output #;

(all,i,IND) a1prim(i) # All primary-factor augmenting technical change #;

(all,i,IND) p1tot(i) # Unit cost of production #;

Equation E_x1 # demand for commodity composites # (all,c,COM)(all,i,IND) x_s(c,i)= x1tot(i);

Equation E_x1prim # demand for primary-factor composites # (all,i,IND) x1prim(i) = a1prim(i) + x1tot(i);

Materials and primary factors used in proportion to X1TOT(i).

A_S(c,i) = amount of composite good c used per unit of output (constant).

A1PRIM(i) = amount of primary-factor needed to make unit of output.

1% decrease in A1PRIM(i) implies a 1% increase in factor productivity

(25)

2

Excerpt 6: Cost of production

5

Levels: V1TOT(i) = sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC, USE(c,s,i)}}

+ FACTOR("Labour",i) + FACTOR("Capital",i);

Equation E_p1tot # cost of production = cost of all inputs # (all,i,IND) V1TOT(i)*[p1tot(i)+ x1tot(i)] =

sum{c,COM,sum{s,SRC, USE(c,s,i)*[p(c,s) + x(c,s,i)]}}

+ FACTOR("Labour",i)*[p1lab + x1lab(i)]

+ FACTOR("Labour",i)*[p1lab + x1lab(i)]

+ FACTOR("Capital",i)*[p1cap(i)+ x1cap(i)];

Right hand terms = 100 times the change in expenditure on some input.

Left hand side = 100 times the change in total costs.

Change in the value of output, V1TOT(i)

= sum of the changes in expenditure on materials and primary factors.

(26)

2 6

KEY

Inputs Outputs Functional

Form

Cobb-Douglas

up to Good C

Good 1

Utility

Structure of Consumer Demand

CES CES

Imported Good C Domestic

Good C Imported

Good 1 Domestic

Good 1

(27)

2

Excerpt 8: Export demands

7

Levels X(c,"dom","Exports") = F4Q(c)[ ]-EXP_ELAST(c)

Exports of each good c are a declining function of:

price in foreign currency, P(c,"dom")/PHI relative to the world price PWORLD(c).

EXP_ELAST(c) = the +ve elasticity of export demand Suppose = 5, 1% increase in price would cause a 5% fall in foreign demand.

Shift variable F4Q could be used to simulate exogenous shifts in foreign demands.

P(c,"dom") PHI*PWORLD(c)

demands.

Variable

(all,c,COM) pworld(c) # World prices, measured in foreign currency #;

(all,c,COM) f4q(c) # Quantity shift in foreign demand #;

phi # Exchange rate, (local $)/(foreign $) #;

Coefficient (all,c,COM) EXP_ELAST(c) # Export demand elasticities #;

Read EXP_ELAST from file BASEDATA header "P018";

Equation E_x4a (all,c,COM) x(c,"dom","Exports") =

f4q(c)-EXP_ELAST(c)*[{p(c,"dom")-phi}- pworld(c)];

Equation E_x4b (all,c,COM) x(c,"imp","Exports") = 0;

(28)

2

Excerpt 9: Domestic market clearing and prices

8

Subset COM is subset of IND;

Equation E_x1tot (all,c,COM) x1tot(c) = x0(c,"dom");

Variable (change)

(all,c,COM) Delptxrate(c) # Ordinary change in rate of domestic tax #;

Equation E_pA (all,c,COM) p(c,"dom") = p1tot(c) +

100*[V1TOT(c)/(V1TOT(c)+V1PTX(c))]*Delptxrate(c);

E_x1tot says: Output of each industry, X1TOT(i) =

total demand for the domestically produced commodity, X0(c,"dom").

User price = production cost + tax

P(c,"dom") = P1TOT(c)*[1 + PTXRATE(c)]

Rule: %Change A = 100.∆∆∆∆A/A

So: %Change [1+A] = 100.∆∆∆∆A/[1+A]

1/[1 + PTXRATE(c)] = share of production cost in user price

= V1TOT(c)/[V1TOT(c)+V1PTX(c)]

(29)

2

Excerpt 10: Prices of imports

9

Levels: P(c,"imp") = PHI*PWORLD(c)*[1 + MTXRATE(c)]

Variable

(change)(all,c,COM) Delmtxrate(c)

# Ordinary change in rate of import tax #;

Equation E_pB Equation E_pB (all,c,COM)

p(c,"imp") = pworld(c) + phi +

100*[V0CIF(c)/SALES(c,"imp")]*Delmtxrate(c);

share of border cost in

user price

(30)

3

Excerpt 11a GDP from income side

0

Variable w0gdpinc # Nominal GDP from income side #;

Coefficient V0GDPINC # GDP from income side #;

Formula V0GDPINC = sum{i,IND, V1PTX(i)+sum{f,FAC, FACTOR(f,i)}}

+ sum{c,COM,V0MTX(c)};

Equation E_w0gdpinc V0GDPINC*w0gdpinc =

sum{i,IND, FACTOR("Labour",i)*[p1lab + x1lab(i)]}

sum{i,IND, FACTOR("Labour",i)*[p1lab + x1lab(i)]}

+sum{i,IND, FACTOR("Capital",i)*[p1cap(i) + x1cap(i)]}

+sum{c,COM, 100*V0CIF(c)*Delmtxrate(c)

+ V0MTX(c)*[x0(c,"imp") + pworld(c )+ phi]}

+sum{c,COM, 100*V1TOT(c)*Delptxrate(c) + V1PTX(c)*[x1tot(c)+p1tot(c)]};

Each term = 100 times ordinary change

100 ××× change in tax rate×

×

×

×× the original tax base

original tax revenue

×

×

×× percent change in tax base

(31)

3

Excerpt 11b GDP from expenditure side

1

GDP = C+I+G+X-M

Variable

w0gdpexp # Nominal GDP from expenditure side #;

p0gdpexp # GDP price index, expenditure side #;

x0gdpexp # Real GDP from expenditure side #;

Coefficient

V0GDPEXP # GDP from expenditure side #;

Formula

V0GDPEXP = sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)}}

-

V0GDPEXP = sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)}}

- V0CIF(c)};

Equation E_w0gdpexp V0GDPEXP*w0gdpexp =

sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)*[p(c,s)+x(c,s,u)]}}

- V0CIF(c)*[x0(c,"imp")+ pworld(c)+phi]};

Equation E_p0gdpexp

V0GDPEXP*p0gdpexp = sum{c,COM,

sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)*p(c,s)}} - V0CIF(c)*[pworld(c)+phi]};

Equation E_x0gdpexp x0gdpexp = w0gdpexp - p0gdpexp

(32)

3

Excerpt 13a More macro variables

2

Variable

x4tot # Export volume index #;

p4tot # Export price index #;

p2tot # Investment price index #;

x0cif_c # Import volume index, CIF prices #;

Equation E_x4tot

sum{c,COM, USE(c,"dom","Exports")*[x4tot - x(c,"dom","Exports")]} = 0;

Equation E_p4tot

sum{c,COM, USE(c,"dom","Exports")*[p4tot - p(c,"dom")]} = 0;

Equation E_p2tot Equation E_p2tot

sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC, USE(c,s,"Investment")*[p2tot - p(c,s)]}} = 0;

Equation E_x0cif_c

sum{c,COM, V0CIF(c)*[x0cif_c - x0(c,"imp")]}=0;

Equation E_x4tot might have been written:

sum{c,COM,USE(c,"dom","Exports")}*x4tot =

sum{c,COM,USE(c,"dom","Exports")*x(c,"dom","Exports")};

(33)

3

Excerpt 13b Balance of Trade/GDP

3

Variable (change) delB # (Balance of trade)/GDP #;

Equation E_delB 100*V0GDPEXP*delB=

sum{c,COM, USE(c,"dom","Exports")*

[p(c,"dom")+x(c,"dom","Exports") - w0gdpexp]

- V0CIF(c)*[x0(c,"imp")+ pworld(c)+phi - w0gdpexp]};

B = [X-M]/GDP B*GDP = [X-M]

B*GDP = [X-M]

GDP*∆∆B + B*∆∆GDP = ∆∆[X-M]

100*GDP*∆∆B + 100*B*∆ ∆GDP = 100*∆∆[X-M] 100*GDP*∆∆B + B*GDP*gdp = Xx - Mm

100*GDP*∆∆B + [X-M]*gdp = Xx - Mm 100*GDP*∆∆B = X[x-gdp] - M[m-gdp]

(34)

3

Excerpt 14: Factor market variables

4

Variable realwage # Wage rate deflated by CPI #;

employ # Aggregate employment #;

(all,i,IND) gret(i) # Gross rate of return #;

Equation E_realwage realwage = p1lab - p3tot;

Equation E_employ sum{i,IND, FACTOR("Labour",i)*[employ - x1lab(i)]}=0;

Equation E_gret (all,i,IND) gret(i) = p1cap(i) - p2tot;

Equation E_gret (all,i,IND) gret(i) = p1cap(i) - p2tot;

REALWAGE = P1LAB/P3TOT constant in sticky labour markets.

employ = % index of aggregate employment, with wage-bill weights GRET(i) = P1CAP(i)/P2TOT

P1CAP = annual revenue from unit of capital P2TOT = cost of creating new unit of capital

GRET = gross rate of return on a unit of new capital: stable in long run

(35)

3

Excerpt 15: Updating the flows data

5

Updates tell GEMPACK how to make post-simulation or updated database.

Product updates:

Formula: USE(c,s,u) = P(c,s)*X(c,s,u) c∈∈COM, s∈∈SRC, u∈∈USER Update: USE(c,s,u) →→ USE(c,s,u)*[1+0.01*p(c,s)+0.01*x(c,s,u)]

Update

(all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER) USE(c,s,u) = p(c,s)*x(c,s,u);

(all,i,IND) FACTOR("Labour",i) = p1lab*x1lab(i);

(all,i,IND) FACTOR("Capital",i) = p1cap(i)*x1cap(i);

(all,i,IND) FACTOR("Capital",i) = p1cap(i)*x1cap(i);

Change updates: explicit formulae for ordinary change

(change)(all,c,COM) V0MTX(c) =

V0CIF(c)*Delmtxrate(c) + 0.01*V0MTX(c)*[x0(c,"imp")+ pworld(c)+phi];

(change)(all,c,COM) V1PTX(c) =

V1TOT(c)*Delptxrate(c) + 0.01*V1PTX(c)*[x1tot(c)+ p1tot(c)];

change in tax rate

×

×

×× the original tax base

original tax revenue

×

×

×× proportional change (=%/100) in tax base

(36)

3

Excerpt 16: Creating a data summary file

6

check that the input data adds up properly: assist in explaining results.

File (new) SUMMARY # output file for summary data #

Coefficient (all,c,COM) CHECK(c) # (costs + tax) - sales : should = 0 #;

Formula (all,c,COM) CHECK(c) =V1TOT(c) +V1PTX(c) -SALES(c,"dom");

Set COSTCAT # cost categories # = SRC union FAC;

Coefficient

(all,c,COSTCAT)(all,i,IND) COSTMAT(c,i) # Summary of industry costs #;

Formula Formula

(all,i,IND)(all,s,SRC) COSTMAT(s,i) = sum{c,COM,USE(c,s,i)};

(all,i,IND)(all,f,FAC) COSTMAT(f,i) = FACTOR(f,i);

Coefficient (all,i,IND) CAPSHR(i) # Share capital in primary factor costs #;

Formula (all,i,IND) CAPSHR(i) = FACTOR("capital",i)/V1PRIM(i);

Coefficient (all,c,COM) IMPSHR(c) # Share imports in local purchases #;

Formula (all,c,COM) IMPSHR(c) =

sum{u,IMPUSER,USE(c,"imp",u)}/sum{u,IMPUSER,USE_S(c,u)};

(37)

3

Closing the model

7

Each equation explains a variable.

More variables than equations.

Endogenous variables: explained by model Exogenous variables: set by user

Closure: choice of exogenous variables Many possible closures

Number of endogenous variables = Number of equations

One way to construct a closure:

(a) Find the variable that each equation explains; it is endogenous.

(b) Other variables, not explained by equations, are exogenous.

MINIMAL equations are named after the variable they SEEM to explain.

(38)

3

The ORANI short-run closure

8

Variable Size Description

phi 1 Exchange rate $A/$US

x_s(COM,"Investment") COM Investment demands x_s(COM,"Government") COM Government demands

x1cap IND Current capital stocks

realwage 1 Real wage

x3tot 1 Real household

consumption consumption

a1prim IND Factor-using technical

change

pworld COM World prices $US

f4q COM Export demand shift

Delmtxrate COM Tax rate on imports

Delptxrate COM Tax rate on production

Industry capital stocks, real wages and absorption fixed

"Shortrun" might be 2 years

(39)

3

A possible long-run closure

9

Variable Size Description

phi 1 Exchange rate $A/$US

x_s(COM,"Investment") COM Investment demands x_s(COM,"Government") COM Government demands

gret IND Rates of return on capital

employ 1 Aggregate employment

DelB 1 Balance of trade/GDP

a1prim IND Factor-using technical

a1prim IND Factor-using technical

change

pworld COM World prices, $US

f4q COM Export demand shift

Delmtxrate COM Tax rate on imports

Delptxrate COM Tax rate on production

••

• Capital stocks adjust in such a way to maintain fixed rates of return (gret).

••• Aggregate employment is fixed and the real wage adjusts.

••• DelB fixed instead of x3tot (real household consumption)

(40)

4

Different closures

0

Many closures might be used for different purposes.

No unique natural or correct closure.

Must be at least one exogenous variable measured in local currency units.

Normally just one — called the numeraire.

Normally just one — called the numeraire.

Often the exchange rate, phi, or p3tot, the CPI.

Some quantity variables must be exogenous, such as:

••

primary factor endowments

••

final demand aggregates

(41)

4

Three Macro Agnostics

1

(42)

4

Three Macro Don't Knows

2

•• •

• Α Α Α Αbsolute price level. Numeraire choice determines whether changes in the real exchange rate appear as changes in domestic prices or in changes in the exchange rate. Real variables unaffected.

•• •

• Labour supply. Closure determines whether labour

•• • Labour supply. Closure determines whether labour market changes appear as changes in either wage or employment.

•• • Size and composition of absorption. Either exogenous or else adjusting to accommodate fixed trade balance.

Closure determines how changes in national income

appear.

(43)

4

Illustrative simulation

3

10% increase in agregate real household consumption, x3tot.

Standard ORANI shortrun closure, fixed

Investment demands

Government demands

Current capital stocks

Real wage

Technical change

Technical change

World prices

Export demand shift

Tax rates

Exchange rate

Gragg 2-4-6 extrapolation solution method (accurate method)(accurate method).

Why? Perhaps tax cut.

(44)

4

Illustrative simulation

4

Results: GDP up, price level up, real appreciation.

Consumption is 60% of GDP, but GDP up only 1%

Leakage: exports down, imports up

Increased output prices cause exports to fall.

Increased output prices cause exports to fall.

and imports expand at the expense of domestic sales.

(45)

4

Table1 : Consumption increase: macro results

5

Variable Description % change

employ Aggregate employment 111...222444

p1lab Economy-wide wage rate 7.69

p3tot Consumer price index 7.69

phi Exchange rate, (local $)/(foreign $) 0.00

realwage Wage rate deflated by CPI 0.00 w3tot Nominal total household consumption 18.46 x3tot Real household consumption 10.00 x3tot Real household consumption 10.00 w0gdpexp Nominal GDP from income side 9.23 w0gdpinc Nominal GDP from expenditure side 9.23 p0gdpexp GDP price index, expenditure side 8.20 x0gdpexp Real GDP from expenditure side 000...999555 x4tot Export volume index ---111999...777111

p4tot Export price index 4.49

p2tot Investment price index 5.71

x0cif_c Import volume index, CIF prices 111222...555111 delB Ordinary change, (Balance of trade)/GDP ---000...000444

(46)

4

Causation in Short-run Closure

6

Real Wage

Capital Stocks Tech Change

Rate of return on

capital

Endogenous Exogenous

Private

Consumption Investment Government Consumption Capital Stocks Tech Change

Trade balance Employment

GDP = + + +

(47)

4

Why higher prices?

7

Short

Short--run: industry capital stocks fixed run: industry capital stocks fixed

To increase output, must hire more labour.

Additional units of labour are less productive Unit costs increase with output.

Supply curve are upward-sloping.

The more capital-intensive the sector, the steeper is supply curve The more capital-intensive the sector, the steeper is supply curve Largest price rise is for FinanProprty.

Circle of price rises Circle of price rises

Increases in output price in one industry raises input costs in others Higher consumer prices increase the nominal wage because real wage

rate is fixed.

All domestic prices rise.

(48)

4

Effect of demand increase

8 Price

Demand

price rise

Capital stocks fixed

To increase output, must hire more labour.

Additional units of labour are less productive

Quantity Demand shifts right 5%

output up

Supply

productive

Unit costs increase with output.

Supply curves are upward-sloping.

(49)

4 9

Variable Description Services

p1cap Rental price of capital 15.25 p1lab Nominal Wage (CPI-linked) 7.69

p1tot Cost of output 7.92

x1lab Employment 3.45

x1tot Industry output 3.11

x(part) Exports -31.69

x0(imp) Total imports 18.33

Effect on Services industry

p(imp) User price of imports 0.00

Output up, employment up more, implies p1cap>p1lab p1cap, p1lab both up, so p1tot up

so imports grow more than domestic output and exports down

(50)

5

Effects of increased input costs

0

Non-traded sectors: inelastic demand, pass on higher costs without losing sales.

Price

Inelastic

Demand Supply curve

shifts up

large price rise

Price

Elastic

Demand Supply curve

shifts up

small price rise

Export-oriented industries, such as AgricMining, are not able to do so.

Import-competers, such as Manufacture, are also vulnerable.

Not shown: right shifts in demand for consumer goods:

Manufacture, TradeTranspt, FinanProprty, and Services

Quantity small output

fall large price rise

Quantity large output fall

(51)

5

GDP Identity

1

RealGDP = F(Capital,Labour) approximate aggregate relation GDP from income side:

gdp = S

k

k + S

l

l k=0

gdp = S

l

l

0.95 = (approx) (0.68)*1.24 = 0.84 GDP from expenditure side:

• RealGDP = C + I + G + (X-M)

• RealGDP = C + I + G + (X-M)

• I, G fixed, C exogenously increased (by 6% of GDP).

• (X-M) changes to make income GDP = expenditure GDP Why is the change in GDP 1 percent and not 6 percent?

GDP = C + I + G + (X-M); Exogenous %∆∆C= 10; %∆ ∆I, %∆ ∆G = 0.

C/GDP = 0.6 ⇒ ⇒ ⇒ ⇒ %∆∆GNP = 0.6× ∆ × × ×10 = 6% if trade balance unchanged. BUT TRADE BALANCE IS ENDOGENOUS

Real appreciation X↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ and M↑ ↑ ↑ ↑. (“Leakage Leakage”)

(52)

5

Consumption increase: sectoral results

2

Description AgricM ining Manufacture Utilities Construction TradeTranspt FinanProprty Services

Rental price of capital -8.42 6.27 18.78 7.83 9.49 18.47 15.25

Price, factor com posite -0.73 7.37 13.66 7.71 8.10 14.40 8.40

Cost of output 2.09 5.59 10.76 6.65 7.96 12.71 7.92

Em ploym ent -7.78 -0.66 5.02 0.06 0.83 4.89 3.45

Use of factor com posite -3.95 -0.52 2.23 0.06 0.64 1.76 3.11

Industry output -3.95 -0.52 2.23 0.06 0.64 1.76 3.11

Exports -9.81 -23.83 -40.01 -27.53 -31.8 -45.01 -31.69

G ross rate of return -13.37 0.52 12.36 2.00 3.57 12.06 9.03

Total im ports 5.54 11.34 25.51 14.05 20.72 27.58 18.33

Total im ports 5.54 11.34 25.51 14.05 20.72 27.58 18.33

D om estic user prices 2.09 5.59 10.76 6.65 7.96 12.71 7.92

U ser price of im ports 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

AgricMining: large export share (elastic) restrains price rise Manufacture: import competition restrains price rise

Others: little trade, prices rise more

labour-intensive selling to household do best (Services)

(53)

5

Some Database Shares

3

AgricMining Manufacture Utilities Construction TradeTranspt FinanProprty Services Average Cost shares

Dom goods 0.41 0.60 0.47 0.49 0.39 0.32 0.31 0.43

Imp goods 0.04 0.14 0.02 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.07

Labour 0.27 0.20 0.24 0.39 0.44 0.25 0.57 0.34

Capital 0.28 0.06 0.28 0.06 0.13 0.42 0.06 0.16

Total 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Sales shares

Intermediate 0.51 0.53 0.77 0.07 0.41 0.49 0.09 0.39

Investment 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.84 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.11

Households 0.05 0.30 0.22 0.00 0.43 0.45 0.36 0.31

Government 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.01 0.02 0.55 0.11

Exports 0.42 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.09

Exports 0.42 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.09

Total 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Import share 0.08 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.03

Capital share 0.51 0.22 0.54 0.13 0.23 0.63 0.10

Output 40513 110420 15275 38733 81013 69380 76593

(54)

5

Comparative-static interpretation of

4

results

Employment

Change C

Results refer to changes at some future point in time.

0 T

A

years B

(55)

5

Length of run ,T

5

T is related to our choice of closure.

With shortrun closure we assume that:

••• T is long enough for price changes to be transmitted

throughout the economy, and for price-induced substitution to take place.

••• T is not long enough for investment decisions to greatly affect

••• T is not long enough for investment decisions to greatly affect the useful size of sectoral capital stocks.

[New buildings and equipment take time to produce and install.]

T might be 2 years. So results mean:

a 10% consumption increase might lead

to employment in 2 years time being 1.24% higher than it would be (in 2 years time) if the consumption increase did not occur.

(56)

5

Features of more complex models

6

•• • more sectors.

•• • more primary factors: land, natural resources, types of labour.

•• • more final demanders: inventories, multiple households

•• • margin flows

•• • margin flows

•• •

• commodity taxes specific to both commodity and user.

•• • multiproduction:

one industry makes several commodities, or several industries make the same commodity.

• more technical change variables.

(57)

5

More features of more complex models

7

•• •

• consumption shares that depend on income as well as relative prices.

•• • more complicated production technology, with more types of substitution (eg, between capital and

energy).

•• • more macro indices and other variables to help present results.

present results.

•• •

• equations linking investment to profitability in each industry

•• • different investment technology for each industry.

•• •

• multiple regions (provinces, nations)

•• •

• multi-period models, which track through time

But still very similar to MINIMAL.

Cytaty

Powiązane dokumenty

Można jednak podejmować szereg działań stymulujących rozwój inicjatyw klastrowych, co może przyczynić się w znacznym stopniu do ich wzrostu, a co za tym idzie

Z tego wzglę- du w artykule postanowiono przyjrzeć się pokrótce różnym podejściom do pro- jektowania książek, przywołać zjawisko „bibliomanii” i kolekcjonerstwa, a tak-

Artykuł ma na celu przedstawienie relacji między książką a czytelnikiem, jej roli w życiu człowieka, zagadnień dotyczących współ- czesnego czytelnictwa, a co za tym idzie

The respondents indicated 19 events, with the most notable being: Beergoszcz Beer Festival (familiar to 39.2% of respondents), Toruń Gingerbread Festival (35.2%), whose brand

Oceniając bariery współ- pracy z pracodawcami zasadnicze różnice dotyczą: braku środków finansowych, umożliwiających praktyczną naukę zawodu u pracodawcy (częściej w

Sformułowanie to zdaje się sugerować, ż e — choć brak dokumentów — już wcześniej podejmowano jakieś działania, natomiast w lutym (przypominam, że było to

Opisano także kilka ważnych konferencji zorganizo- wanych na uczelniach w Polsce w 2016 roku: X Łódzką Konferencję Biogra- ficzną „Biografia i badanie biografii –

However, the impact of local currency depreciation on inflation may be different when the economy has a significant position in the foreign exchange market, for example due to loans