Climate change and water resources management - 4th Yangtze Forum

Yangtze tliver and Regional Development

Climate Change and Water Resources

Manager

Proceedings

yZ'^^XKïkl^ People's Government of Jiangsu Province

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Nanjing Hydraulic Researcti Institute Bureau of Hydrology CWRC

Swiss Federal Office for the Environment World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF)

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

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2011. 4

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Contents

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1 The Swiss Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change

Probst Thomas, Hohmann Roland, Koellner-Heck Pamela

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13 Adaptation to Water-Re/ated Disasters Caused by Extreme Weather Conditions (Abstract)

Takara Kaoru

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14 The App/ication of Macro Sca/e Distributed Hydro/ogical Model in Runoff Simu/ation of JiaLingJiang River Basin

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(Junliang Jin, Guoqing Wang, Cuishan Liu, Ruimin He)

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21 Building with Nature: Sustainable Development in Times of C/imate Change

Huib de Vriend

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35 The Swiss Water Management Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change

Hugo Aschwanden, Schaedler Bruno

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47 Climate Change Adaptation-a New Area for River Basin Management (Abstract)

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(Lifeng Li)

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48 Water Resources Outlook and Management for Climate Change in KOREA (Abstract)

Jin Hyeog PARK, Deuk Koo KOH, Gwang Man LEE, Hyo Sok CHAE

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50 Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in Changjiang River

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63 Capacity Planning in a Nonstationary Climate

Neela P. Babu and Daniel P. Loucks

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70 New approaching addressing cha/lenges in the coupling of atmosphere-/and surface-hydrology processes: overview and opportunities

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(Zhongbo Yu, Yang Huang, Chuanguo Yang, Qin JU, Haishen Lu, Tao Yang,

Zhenchun Hao, Yipilig Li, Xing Chen, Long Xiang)

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80 Issues of Adaptation to C/imate Change and Variability lnduced by Multi-Drives: A Case of Shanghai City (Abstract)

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81 Monitoring and Early Warning of G/acier Lake Outburst F/oods in the

Varkant River Area under Conditions of Climate Change

Hess Josef, Keusen Hans Rudolf and Haemmig Christoph

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93 The UK C/imate Change Risk Assessment: Analysis of the Water Sector

Hurford,

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Wade, S.O., Rance, J., Ramsbottom, D.

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103 Water Qua/ity and Climate Change in Australia

Michael R Moore

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108 The Conception and Practice of the Water Resources Model of the Yangtze River Basin

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(Yan Huang, Ying Xiong, Hanggang Zhang, Mingxin Li)

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IPCC AR4

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116 Evaluation of the simu/ation performance of /PCC AR4 global elimate models on Huaihe River Basin

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(Zhenchun Hao, Qin Ju, Lu Wang, Weijuan Jiang)

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124 The Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of Hanjiang River Basin

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(Honggang Zhang, Shenglian Guo, Haijin Guo, Hua Chen)

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131 Research on the Evaluation of Hydrapower Clean Energy under the Low Carbon Economy

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(Dengzhong Zhao, Yongbo Chen, Xianjia Wang, Jingjiang Ran)

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140 Enhancing Capacity construction of Water Quality Monitoring and Service

to support the Strictest Water Resources Management

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145 The Function and Consideration of Hydrology in Carrying out the Strictest

Water Resources Management

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150 A Study on lntegrated Regu/ation and the Maintenance of Environmental Flow of Downstream of Dam of Danjiangkou Reservoir

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155 Analysis on the Impact of Climate change on lnflow to the Three Gorges

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(Miaolin Wang, Baoxian Hou, Liang Zhang)

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160 Analysis on the features of Pol/ution Souree of Danjiangkou Reservoir

and corresponding proteetion measures

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(Feng Wang, Wenyao Zhao, Shuyong Li)

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166 Variation trends of hydro-meteorological elements in Kuyehe River

catchment during 1955--2008

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(Tang Fangfang, Wang Guoqing, Guo Chunqing, Niu Haijing)

The Swiss Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change

Probst Thomas, Hohmann Roland and Koellner-Heck Pamela

(Pederal Office for the Environment FOEN, Climate Division 3003 Berne, Switzerland)

Abstract: While the global ammal mean temperature increased by 0.6°C in the 20111 century,

Switzerland faced a warming between 1.0°C and 1.6°C during that period. The warming was accompanied by changing precipitation patterns. The observed climatic change will continue in future. Until 2050, elimate scenarios expect a further temperature rise up to 2.8°C in summer and 1.8°C in winter. Precipitation is assumed to decrease distinctly in summer and increase slightly in winter. Despite of all internfltional mitigation efforts, the expected changes will have inevitable and noticeable impacts on Swiss society, economy and environment. In order to cope with the consequences in anticipatory manner, a national strategy for adaptation to elimate change is being established until the end of 2011. The Swiss adaptation strategy focuses on the sectors most affected by elimate change, i.e. water management, natura! hazards prevention, agriculture, forest management, energy, health, biodiversity management and spatial development. In the strategy, relevant elimate change impacts will be described, objectives of adaptation determined and options for adaptation outlined. The process of setting up the National Adaptation Strategy is coordinated by the Pederal Office for the Environment and involves the Pederal Offices for Agriculture, Energy, Pubtic Health and Spatial Development.

Key Words: Climate change; impacts, adaptation, national adaptation strategy, Switzerland

lntroduction: Climate Change in Switzerland

While the global annual mean temperature increased by 0.6°C in the 20111 century (IPCC,

2001), Switzerland faced a warming between 1.0°C (southern part) and 1.6°C (western part; OcCC; 2007). The development of the average temperature in Switzerland since 1864 is shown in Pigure 1. The country, located in the midst of Central Europe and covering the geographic range from lowlands to alpine peaks above 4600 m, observed also changing

precipitation patterns. Annual rainfall increased by 120 mm (+8%) during the 20111 century. In

the northern and western part of the alpine area, mean winter precipitation increased by 20% to 30% (Schmidli et al., 2001). Heavy precipitation increased in large parts of the midlands and the northern edge of the Alps in autumn and winter (Schmidli and Frei, 2005). Since evaporation rose by 105 mm (+23%), the mean annual runoff remained virtually the same. At

the same time, water reserves linked to glaciers decreased by approximately 50 km3 over 100

years (OcCC, 2007).

Probst Thomas, Email: thomas.probst@bafu.admin.ch; Hohmmm Roland, Email: roland.hohmann@bafu.admin.ch;

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Figure 1 Yearly temperafure anomaliesin Switzerland 1864-2010, departure from mean 1961-1990 (MeteoSwiss, 2011)

Until the end of the 21 st century, the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC projects a global

average surface warming ranging from 1.1

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to 6.4 °C (2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999),

depending on the development of greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 2007). Por Switzerland, a regional temperature and precipitation scenario was provided as basis of the study "Climate Change and Switzerland 2050. Expected Impacts on Environment, Society and Economy" by the Advisory Body for Climate Change (Organe consultatif sur les changements climatiques;

OcCC, 2007). It is based on calculations of various combinations of global and regional

elimate models from the EU-project PRUDENCE. These combinations resulted from joining the IPCC emissions scenarios A2 and B2, four different global elimate rnadeis and eight different regional elimate models. Potential mitigation measures were not taken into account (Frei, 2004). Figures 2 and 3 illustrate mean temperatures and precipitation on the northern and southern side ofthe Alps projected for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070.

These projections show that Switzerland will increasingly be exposed to elirnatic changes. At the time being, the Swiss focus is on the development until 2050, and the National Adaptation Strategy is based on the 2050 projections. Until then, a middle temperature rise of approximately 2. 7°C to 2.8°C in summer and 1.8°C in winter is estimated (median values). In spring and autumn, the warming will be camparabie to the development in winter.

Por precipitation, an increase by 8% to 11% in winter and a decrease by 17% to 19% in summer is expected until the middle of the 21 st century. In spring and autumn, both precipitation increases and decreases are possible. Thus, altogether it is expected that all seasons will become distinctly warmer, with sununers tending to become drier and winters more humid.

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Figure 2 Change in mean temperature in winter (DJF: December to February), spring (MAM: March to May), summer (JJA: June to August) and autumn (SON: September

to November) on the northern and southern side of the Alps in the years 2030 I 2050 I

2070 compared to 1990. The horizontallines show the middle estimates (median). There is a 95% probability that the warming will be within the colored bars (OcCC, 2007)

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side of the Alps in the years 2030 I 2050 I 2070 compared to 1990 (OcCC, 2007)

Climate change will have a wide range of consequences for natural and socio-economie systems in Switzerland. With regard to extreme events, certain general trends seem evident, even if scenarios of frequency and intensity still suffer from large uncertainties (OcCC, 2007, OcCC, 2003; further sourees indicated):

Temperature extremes show the most distinct trend. With rising mean summer temperature, heat waves with higher temperatures will occur. According to the given regional scenario for Switzerland, a summer heat wave as in 2003 will occur very rarely in case of weak warming, every few decades in case of medium warming, and every few years in case of strong warming. On the opposite, the frequency of cold waves and the number of frost days will decline.

Heavy precipitation events will increase in the winter half of the year (Frei et al., 2006). For the summer season, trends are less clear.

The increasing precipitation intensity and extremes result in a growing potential for more frequent floods, landslides and mud slides. However, natura! hazards trends are difficult to determine because they are also influenced by other processes affected by elimate change (soil moisture, snowmelt, runoff regime).

Along with decreasing mean rainfall and rainy days and increasing temperatures and evaporation, extremely dry periods will occur more frequently and last Jonger.

The frequency of storms will most likely decrease. But at the same time, the frequency of very heavy stonns may increase.

Some fmther estimates of changes in other climatic variables until 2050 (OcCC, 2007): Warming willlead to a rise of the snow Iine in winter. If the rise observed in the recent decades continues until 2050, the snow Iine will rise by about 360 m in case of medium warming, by 180 m in case of moderate warming and by 680 m in case of strong warming.

The retreat of glaciers will be the most obvious elimate change result in the Alps. Until 2050, the area covered by alpine glaciers will diminish by about three gumters in the case of medium warming. In case of moderate warming, the loss in glacier area will be about 50%, and in case of strong warmingabout 90% (see Figure 4).

Permafrost wiJl slowly decline, with melting ice-rich rock faces in shady slopes between 2000 and 3000 m. But entire unfreezing will occur only punctually.

The frequency of rockfalls and the probability of large-scale incidents are likely to rise due to retreating glacier, permafrost decline and more deeply penetrating thermal disruption in frozen rock faces.

160 -' 160 Precipitation change +30% (/) 0. ::(

Figure 4 Chang~ in alpine glaciation with increasing summer temperafure and changing

annual rainfall. Accordingly, glaciation will decrease by 24% until 2050 (OcCC, 2007)

Climate change wil! also have a variety of direct and indirect impacts on ecosystems, agricultme, forestry, water management, health, tourism, energy production and consumption, buildings and infrastructme and a lso insurance business in Switzerland ( compiled in OcCC,

2007). Climate-triggered impacts cover a broad range, including for example: Migration of plantand animal species

Extended vegetation period

Enhanced production conditions for erop cultivation Destabilization of proteetion and production forests

Increasing damage potential to buildings, transpoli and energy infrastructure Longer summer tourism seasons

RedtJCed snow security in skiing resorts at lower attitude.

The majority of impacts pose new risks to society, economy and environment, or aggravate existing risks. However, also several opportunities will arise with a changing climate. Both risks and opportunities make deliberate, foresighted and targeted adaptation to elimate change an essential requirement on the politica! and administrative agenda in Switzerland.

The Swiss Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change: Mandate and Organization In order to cope with the consequences of elimate change in a proactive way, the Swiss Pederal Council decided in August 2009 to analyze elimate change-related risks and to develop a National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) until the end of 2011. This strategy's main intention is to enable policy-makers and administration on Pederal level to coordinate necessary adaptation actions efficiently. The challenging strategy development process is led by the Pederal Depatiment of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications and coordinated by the Pederal Office for the Environment (POEN). The Pederal Departments of Home Affairs, Economie Affairs, Defence, Civil Proteetion and Sport as well as Pinance are actively involved in the process. The central coordination unit is the Interdepartmental Panel Climate with high-level representatives of all involved Pederal Offices.

The NAS is set up in six work steps (Pigure 5). The fundament is laid by information on observed elimate change, future elimate projections and potential impacts in Switzerland (e.g. provided by OcCC reports, elimate modeling, research projects). Commonly agreed objectives and principles set the frame for the Swiss adaptation approach. After the identification of the sectors most affected by elimate change, the responsible Pederal Offices elaborate sectoral adaptation strategies. The interfaces between these sector specific strategies are analyzed to reveal potential synergies and conflicts. The final synthesis incorporates all work steps and highlights the most important adaptation challenges.

Additional input is provided by new elimate scenarios for Switzerland (available 2nd half of

2011) and an analysis of elimate change-related risks and oppotiunities. The finalization of the strategy paper and its submission to the Pederal Council also mark the re-entry into the strategy cycle in order to evaluate the process, check caberenee of the strategy's elements, enable adjustments and prepare implementation. These activities are accompanied by the installation and step-by-step extension of a web based adaptation platform, which aims at providing national, regionat and municipal administration with robust information on adaptation needs and possibilities.

2 Objectives & principles

5 Interface analysis

3 Most affected sectors

4 Sectoral strategies

Figure 5 Work steps ofthe National Adaptation Strategy Objectives and Principles of Climate Change Adaptation

Three overall adaptation objectives have already been agreed upon: To seize the opportunities provided by elimate change,

to minimize the risks of elimate change, to proteet population, material assets and natmal resources, and

to increase the adaptive capacity of all systems.

The underlying principles of adaptation read as follows:

Adaptive efforts will conform to the principles of sustainability: on the one hand, balanced consideration will be given to the needs of the environment, the economy and society; on the other hand, the interests of future generations will be taken into account with equal standing when making future decisions, planning and implementing measures. Adaptation affects the whole of society. The adaptation strategy coordinates action at Pederal level and serves as a basis for a partnership-based approach invalving Confederation, cantons, municipalities and private entities, giving due regard to existing responsibilities and competences.

Adaptation takes place as a complement to greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Adaptation measures shall notrun counter to the objectives of greenhouse gas reduction. Adaptation is based on scientific findings. New scientific findings will be taken into consideration when planning and implementing measures. Where gaps in knowledge exist, questions for the research community will be formulated in order to improve the knowledge basis. In keeping with the precautionary principle, uncertainties are not arguments for inaction.

Adaptation to elimate change is based on the risk approach. The opportunities and risks that elimate change presents to Switzerland will be analyzed and compared. The process shall be transparent and coherent. On the basis of such risk analysis, priorities will be fonnulated for adaptation to elimate change in Switzerland, along with adaptation targets forthese priorities.