Multipliers Analysis Based on the W3S79 Model

A C T A U N I V E R S I T A T I S L O D Z I E N S I S ____________________ POLIA OECONOMICA 5 4 .1 9 8 6_________________

M aria L u b e ra * , M aria P o ta rg o w ic z *, W ładysław W e lfe* * MULTIPLIERS ANALYSIS

BASED ON THE W3S79 MODEL

S in o e 1971 i n t h e I n s t i t u t e o f E c o n o m etric s and S t a t i s t i c s , U n i v e r s i ty o f Łódź o o n tin u o u s r e s e a r c h on m o d e llin g t h e n a t i o n a l economy h a s b een c a r r i e d o u t . The W3S79 luodel i s a s u b s e q u e n t s u p p ly v e r s i o n o f t h e W-3 m edium -term model o f t h e P o l is h economy. T h is v e r s io n h a s b e e n c o n s tr u c te d m a in ly t o r e f l e o t t h e phenomena accom panying t h e econom ic o r i s l s o f t h e l a t e s e v e n t i e s and t h e e i g h t i e s . The model o o n s i s t s o f 353 e q u a ti o n s , w ith 153 o f them b e in g o to o h a s t io and 200 i d e n t i t i e s .

The f o llo w in g b lo o k s can bo d i s t i n g u i s h e d i n t h e model th o s e d e s c r i b in g i n v e s t m e n t s , o a p i t a l fo rm a tio n and f ix e d o n s e t s , l a b o u r s u p p ly , employment end w o rk in g tim e i n i n d u s t r y , n e t and g r o s s o u t p u t, m ark e t s u p p li e s and c o n su m p tio n , I n v e n to r y in v e s tm e n ts , e x p o r ts and im p o r te , wages and p e r s o n a l incom e, f i n a n o i a l a c -c u m u la tio n and p r i o e s . I n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s betw een b lo c k s o f th e model a r e p r e s e n t e d i n P i g . 1 . The l e v e l o f a g g r e g a tio n i s t h e same a s t h a t in tr o d u c e d i n t h e e a r l i e r v e r s i o n s o f t h e W-3 m o d el1, nam ely t h e n a t i o n a l economy l a d iv id e d i n t o t h e m a t e r i a l p r o d u o t- s e c t o r in c l u d in g i n d u s t r y , c o n s t r u c t i o n , a g r i c u l t u r e , f o r e s t r y , t r a d e and t r a n s p o r t , and n o n - m a te r ia l s e r v i o e s s e c t o r (h o u s in g and communal s e r v i o e s ) .

^ L e c t u r e r s , I n s t i t u t e o f E o o n o m e trio s and S t a t i s t i c s . U n iv e r-s i t y o f Łódź.

* * P r o f »■ D r . , H ead, I n s t i t u t e o f 'Eoonom & trios and S t a t i s t i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f Łódź.

1 C f. C z y ż e w s k i , D ę b s k i , W e l f e 1976* W e 1 - f e 1973; W e l f e 1975.

P i g . 1 . Scheme o f i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s among b lo c k s o f t h e m odel W3S79 M ar ia L u b a ra , M ar la P o ta rf o w lc z , W ła d y sł aw V g lf e

I n d u s t r y i s d iv id e d i n t o 6 g ro u p s o f b ra n c h e s« In v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s , c o n su m p tio n goods and im p o r ts and e x p o r ts a r e d iv id e d i n t o 3 -9 -5 g r o u p s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . V a r ia b le s a r e g iv e n i n o o n s ta n t p r i c e s o f 1 s t J a n u a r y 1977, and i n c u r r e n t p r i c e s .

S t r u c t u r a l p a ra m e te rs and t h o s e o f s t o o h a s t l o s t r u c t u r e o f t h e m odel h a v e b e e n e s ti m a t e d u s in g t h e o r d in a r y l e a s t s q u a r e s m ethod on t h e b a s i s o f a n n u a l s t a t i s t i c a l d a t a f o r t h e y e a r s 1961- -1 9 7 9 « C o m p u tatio n s w ere made on an ODRA 1305 c o m p u te r u s in g th e program # Effl 9 3. 1 . D e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e W3S79 Model T h is i s a c o n s i s t e n t l y s u p p l y - o r i e n t e d m o d el. The e x i s t i n g p r o d u c tio n c a p a c i t i e s g iv e n in p u t c o n s t r a i n t s d e te rm in e t h e volume o f o u t p u t , i . e . t h e o r i g i n a t e d and d i s t r i b u t e d n e t and g ro o 3 m a t e r i a l p r o d u c t . I t c o n t a i n s , h ow ever, t h e m ost im p o r ta n t f e e d -b ack d e f i n i n g a lo n g - te r m s u p p ly - ty p e a c c e l e r a t o r . The fe e d b a c k i s e x p re s s e d by t h e f a c t t h a t t h e p r o d u c tio n o f I n v e s tm e n t goods d e te r m in e s in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s , and i n t u r n , ta k in g » i n t o ao o ount l a g d i s t r i b u t i o n - c a p i t a l f o r m a tio n , f i x e d a s s e t s and p r o d u c tio n c a p a c i t i e s a r e d e te r m in e d . The i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e en i n v e s t ment o u t l a y s and p r o d u c t i o n a r e p r e s e n t e d i n a scheme o f i n v e s t -m ent and p r o d u o tlo n s e c t o r s ( P i g . 2 ) 4 .

The above fe e d b a c k i s s t r e n g th e n e d by a d d i t i o n a l s im u lta n e o u s r e l a t i o n s h i p i n v o lv i n g t h e f o r e i g n t r a d e . Nam ely, t h e p r o d u c tio n d e te r m in e s e x p o r t s w hich i n t u r n d e te r m in e i m p o r ts , i n c l u d i n g m a c h in e ry and e q u ip m e n t, and t h u s l e a d t o t h e i n c r e a s e o f p ro d u c -t i o n c a p a c i -t i e s . F i n a l l y , t h e m odel a tt e m p t s t o p r e s e n t t h e fe e d b a c k o p e r a t i n g th r o u g h p r o d u c tio n f u n o ti o n s b o t t l e - n e c k s i n t h e p r o d u c tio n p r o o e s s b e c a u s e o f c o n s t r a i n t s i n im p o rte o f raw m a t e r i a l s , s e m i- - f i n i s h e d p r o d u c ts c a u s e d by e x p o r t l i m i t a t i o n s d e p e n d in g , among 2

T hese d a t a a r e in c l u d e d i n t h e d a t a bank o f »W-3-SKA-79« .„ k e y r e s u l t from t h e r e s e a r c h work o f t h e g ro u p d i r e c t e d by

D r . W. J u s z c z a k . J

The a u t h o r o f a l l co m p u te r pro g ram s u s e d i n t h e p r e s e n t e d c a l c u l a t i o n s , i f n o t s t a t e d o t h e r w i s e , i s D r. J . B . Q a jd a .

o t h e r s , on th e d e o l i n i n g p r o d u c tio n l e v e l s * I t i s n o t a b l e , h o w ev er, t o e x p la i n t h e econom io c r i s i s a s t h e t o t a l im p a c t o f im p o rt o o n o t r a i n t a on t h e u n d e r u t i l i s a t i o n o f o a p a o i t i e s h aa n o t b een o a p tu r e d th ro u g h t h e p r o d u o tio n f u n c t i o n s ( i t o o o u rre d i n t h e p e r i o d 1980-1982 n o t o o v e re d b y t h e sam p le p e r i o d ) .

The in v e s tm e n t o u t la y a ( f o r b u i l d i n g s and c o n s t r u c t i o n JBUS, m a c h in e ry and equipm ent - JMUS and o t h e r - JPRS) a r e t h e f u n c t i o n o f g r o s s o u tp u t o f c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y - QB, e l e c t r o - e n g i n e e r - In g i n d u s t r y - QQE, and im p o r ts o f m a c h in e ry and equipm ent - M7. The a l l o c a t i o n o f in v e a tra e n t o u t la y s among t h e d i s t i n g u i s h e d i n -d u s t r i e s ( b ra n o h e s ) -d ep en -d s on p r e -d e te r m in e -d o o e f f l o i e n t s - b e in g i n s tr u m e n ts o f t h e in v e s tm e n t p o l l o y 5 .

- J t / J • J , ( 1 )

where» J - JBUS + JMUS ♦ JPR S, i ■ M, H, Q, Bf T , R, L , H.

The in v e s tm e n ts p u t i n t o o p e r a t i o n IK^ h av e b e e n d e te rm in e d a ssu m in g Almon l a g d i s t r i b u t i o n o f in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s , a o c o rd in g t o t h e g e n e r a l fo rm u la ! ml 1Ki “ wi j j i , - j ) » c*> J - o where* m^ - t h e l e n g t h o f In v e s tm e n t o y o le . The g r o s s v a lu e o f f i x e d a s s e t s h a s b e e n d e te r m in e d u s in g t h r e e sy ste m s o f e q u a tio n s g e n e r a t i n g s o r a p p in g s o f f i x e d a s s e t s (KD1 ) , t h e s to c k s o f f i x e d a s s e t s a t t h e end o f t h e p e r i o d ( K^K ) and th e a v e ra g e s to o k o f f i x e d a s s e t s ( K ^ ) , r e s p e c t i v e l y Ш»! - f ( I K i t * K ^ , + IK± — KD^, ^ j j . (K ^ K ^ + K jK )/2 . « « Л ; 1 " А 9 Л “ľ “ ? ? 1 °£ “ l a d u s t r y i b r a n c h ) . C f . A p p en d ix Í i n c l u d i n g t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f sym bols o f t h e v a r i a b l e s .

F lg . 2 . Scheme o f investm ent and n e t production s e c to r

— exogenous variable

I — endogenous . sto c h a stic equ ation

^ У ~ en do g en o u s va riab le - i d e n t it y

L a b o u r s u p p ly o u t s i d e p r i v a t * a g r i c u l t u r e NANSR h aá been assum ed e x o g e n o u s. The s e c t o r a l ( b r a n o h ) a t r u o t u r e o f em ploym ent i s d e te r m in e d by t h e a u t o r e g r e s s i v e p r o c e s s and r e l a t i v e w ag es. I t s h o u ld b e n o te d t h a t - e x c e p t f o r w ages i n a g r i o u l t u r e , f o r e -s t r y and n o n - m a t e r i a l -s e c t o r - a v e r a g e wage-s a r e e x o g e n o u -s.

M an-hours w orked I n p a r t i c u l a r b r a n c h e s o f I n d u s t r y (HPQ.) dep en d on t h e l e v e l o f em ploym ent I n a g iv e n b r a n o h (N O Q ^ . Chan- вое I n an a v e ra g e w o rk in g week o r d a y l e n g t h a r e in tr o d u o e d i n t h e form o f p a r a m e t e r c h a n g e s (among o t h e r s , o f t h e i n t e r c e p t ) , by i n t r o d u c i n g a p p r o p r i a t e dummy v a r i a b l e s .

H et o u t p u t d e p e n d s , f i r s t o f a l l , on t h e p rim a ry f a c t o r s i n p u t s , i . e . f i x e d a s s e t s , em ploym ent ( o r w o rk in g tim e ) d e te r m in -i n g t h e o a p a o -i t y o u t p u t . B e s -i d e s , -i n I n d u s t r y t h e f a c t o r s d e t e r -m in in g t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f p r o d u o ti o n c a p a c i t i e s , su o h a s t h e num ber o f s h i f t s worked and i m p o r ts volum e ( f o r c o n s t r a i n t s o f raw m a t e r i a l s ) w ere u s e d .T h u s ,t h e p r o d u o ti o n f u n c t i o n s e x p l a i n i n g n e t o u tp u t ( a t c o n s t a n t p r i c e s ) i n I n d u s t r i a l b r a n c h e s (X Q ,) have t h e fo rm . 1 ^ d i f f e r e n t a p p ro a c h was u s e d i n r e l a t i o n t o a g r i o u l t u r e , *e i n t h e f i r s t s t a g e t h e g r o s s p r o d u o ti o n was e x p la in e d « - p l a n t p r o d u o tl o n t XQl - f(KQi t WZNQ1# HPQ1# Mk ) , w h ile i n c o n s t r u c t i o n , t r a d e , t r a n s p o r t a n d f o r e s t r y ! (4 ) - f(K i t Ы^, XQ) _{( 5 )} QRR - f (KR, S S , IOWA),

₍

₆

₎

- a n im a l p r o d u c t i o n ! QHZ - fCQRR, MQR, PQHZ/PQRR, IOWA) _{( 7 )} - o t h e r p r o d u c t i o n ! QRO - f (QRR + Q R Z .K R )

and l n t h e aeoond s t a g e - t h e n e t o u tp u t (Z R ) u a d i f f e r e n c e b etw e en g r o s s p r o d u c t i o n and m a t e r i a l I n p u t s i

IR - QR - f(IOWA, QQF, QQM), ( 9)

w h e re t QR - QRR + QRZ + QRO.

The g r o s s p r o d u c t i o n and Im p o r ts ( i n t h e o&se o f f u e l and pow er I n d u s t r y a l s o e x p o r t s ) o f a g iv e n I n d u s t r y d e te r m in e t h e l e v e l o f m ark e t s u p p l i e s o f r e s p e c t i v e c o n s u m e rs ' g o o d s w hloh I n t u r n , a f f e c t t h e l e v e l o f p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p tio n . P o s s i b l e c h a n g e s I n t h e volum e o f s u p p l i e s o r c o n su m p tio n c a n b e I n tr o d u c e d by o h a n g ln g r e s p e c t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f p r o d u c t i o n a l l o o a t l o n ( j o i n t l y w ith aym m etrio c h a n g e s i n a l l o c a t i o n c o e f f i o l e n t s f o r o t h e r f i n a l r e c i p i e n t s ) .

The s e c t o r o o v e r ln g wages and p e r s o n a l Incom e i n c l u d e s , among o t h e r s , t h e e q u a ti o n s d e s c r i b i n g

- incom es from employment a s a f u n c t i o n o f wage b i l l

YPRP . f(P U S P ), (1 0 )

w here i FUSP - £ FUSjP and PUSjP - ZUS±P * NUS^

i . e . wage b i l l i s o b t a i n e d by m u l t i p l y i n g em ploym ent by m o s tly ex o genous w agest - incom es from a g r i c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s - a s a f u n c t i o n o f n e t a g r i c u l t u r a l o u tp u t and p ro c u re m e n t p r i c e s o f a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o -d u c ts t т а р - f ( x a , p i r s ) , o d - incom es i n n o n - s o c i a l l z e d s e c t o r ( e x c l u d in g a g r i c u l t u r e ) ! Ш Р » f(Y P R P ), (12) - o t h e r in co m e s! YPOP » f(Y P R P ), ( 13) - t o t a l in co m e s!

YP - YRP + YPRP + YINP + YPOP. ( 14)

Wage c o s t s and m a t e r i a l i n p u t ( i n c l u d i n g Im p o rt p r i c e s ) d e te r m in e p r o d u c e r s ' p r i c e s , i . e . d e f l a t o r s o f I n d u s t r i a l p ro d u c -t i o n . T h e s e , i n t u r n , d e te r m in e r e t a i l p r i c e s and p r i c e s f o r i n v e s tm e n t g o o d s . T h u s, i t i s p o s s i b l e t o e x p r e s s i n c u r r e n t

p r i o e s a lm o s t a l l com m odity f lo w s i n t h e p r o d u o tio n and d i s t r i b u -t i o n p r o c e s s . The i n f l a t i o n a r y fe e d b a o k was n o t e z p l i o i t l y i n

-way. They s a t i s f y t h e a s s u m p tio n t h a t e x p o r t s a r e d e te r m in e d by d o m ea tio p r o d u o tio n o a p a o i t i e s and s t i m u l a t e d by a o o u m u la te d f o r e i g n d e b t* E x p o r ts ,o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , a r e t h e m ain d e te r m in a n t o f t o t a l i m p o r t s . F i g u r e 3 p r e s e n t s a d e t a i l e d soheme o f f o r e i g n

where* к - sym bol o f a g ro u p o f co m m o d ities» к ■ 1 , 24» 3 , 7 , PO. E x p o r ts a t o u r r e n t p r i o e s a r e o b t a i n e d ,b y m u l t i p l y i n g e x p o r t s volum es by p r e d e te r m in e d e x p o r t p r i o e s . T o t a l e x p o r t s a t c u r r e n t p r i c e s ( b e i n g t h e sum o f e x p o r t s t o s o o i a l i s t and n o n - s o o i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s ) d e te r m in e J o i n t l y w ith t h e assum ed f o r e i g n t r a d e b a l a n -c e - t o t a l v a lu e o f im p o rts »

w here» EP • ESP + ENP, ENP EH ♦ PEN, ESP • ES * PES, ES a ED -- EH, ED -- E1 + E24 + E3 + E7 + EPO.

Im p o rt v o l u m e s ,t o t a l and by g ro u p s o f o o m m o d ltle s, a r e d e t e r -m ined fro-m t h e i d e n t i t i e s »

E xogenous v a r i a b l e s a r e e x p o r t d e f l a t o r s (РВк , PEN, PES) and im p o rt d e f l a t o r s (PU D ), c u m u la te d t o t a l f o r e i g n t r a d e b a la n c e (SEMP) and t r a d e b a la n c e w ith n o n - s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s (SHEMF) and im p o rt a l l o c a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s (M^/MD). Thus t h e p o l l o y i n s t r u -m en ts a llo w f o r b o t h o h a n g e s i n t o t a l im p o rt ( b y m eans o f c h an g -i n g f o r e -i g n d e b t) and -i t s c o m p o s -it-io n . e lu d e d i n t h i s v e r s i o n , a s w ages a r e e x o g e n o u e . F o r e ig n t r a d e e q u a ti o n s h av e b e e n c o n s t r u c t e d i n a s p e c i a l t r a d e s e o t o r . T h is s e o t o r c o n t a i n s 6 e t o o h a e t l o e q u a ti o n s ex -p l a i n i n g e x -p o r t e ( a t o o n e ta n t -p r i o e s ) , nam ely» - e x p o r t s t o n o n - s o o i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s » EH ■ f ( X , SNEMP/ENP), - e x p o r t s o f a g iv e n g ro u p o f o o m m o d itie st (1 5 ) Ek - f í X j , PEk , SNEMP), _{(1 6 )} Ek * PEk* (1 7 ) UP • EP - SEMP + SEMP_1 , (1 8 ) MD « MP/PUD, Mk - ( Mjg/MD) * MD. (19)

(

20

)

The Я3379 m odel e x p l a i n s t h r e e o a t e g o r l e s o f I n v e n t o r y a to o k e i - f o o d s t u f f i n s o o i a l i z e d t r a d e j RZ - f(R2;_1 , CHZA) , (2 1 ) - n o n -fo o d i n v e n t o r i e s i n s o o i a l i z e d t r a d e t RNZ - f(XQL, RNZ_1) , . (22) - i n v e n t o r y in v e s tm e n t o u t s i d e s o o i a l i z e d t r a d e i DRNH - f(DQQ, DQR). (2 3 )

The n a t i o n a l inoom e d i s t r i b u t e d i s o b t a i n e d from t h e I d e n t i t y !

XG = X - SO, (2 4 )

w here i SG » f(ED - MD) ,

i . e . i t d ep e n d s on t h e f o r e i g n t r a d e b a la n o e and te rm a o f t r a d e , w h ile o t h e r c o n s u m p tio n , i . e . go v ern m en t e x p e n d i t u r e s , i s d e t e r -m ined a s a r e s i d u a l from t h e w e ll-k n o w n i d e n t i t y n a t i o n a l Inoome a o c o u n ts t G - XG - CX - JNET - DR, (2 5 ) w here n e t in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s depend on t h e p r e v i o u s l y d e te r m in e d s u p p l i e s o f in v e s tm e n t g o o d s t JNET - f ( J , JNXGP) and DR m DRZ + DRUŽ + DRNH. 2 . The A n a ly s is o f a C o n tr o l S o l u t i o n The f a c t t h a t e v e ry r e g r e s s i o n e q u a ti o n s a t i s f i e s b a s io r e q u ir e m e n ts s u c h a s a h ig h l e v e l o f g o o d n e ss- o f f i t , s i g n i f i c a n c e o f s t r u c t u r a l p a r a m e te r e s t i m a t e s and t h e i r o o r r e o t eoonom io i n -t e r p r e -t a -t i o n s i n -t h e c a s e o f an i n te r d e p e n d e n t s y s te m , i s n o t a s u f f i o l e n t e v id e n c e t h a t a . "good" m odel h a s b e e n c o n s t r u c t e d . I t l a n e c e s s a r y t o e v a l u a t e t h e w hole s y s te m o f e q u a ti o n s u s in g a s i m u l a t i o n e x p e r im e n t, i . e . b a s e d on t h e a n a l y s i s o f a c o n t r o l s o l u t i o n o f t h e s y s te m .!

By t h e c o n t r o l s o l u t i o n o f t h e m odel we mean t h e s e t o f - v a lu e s o f endogenous v a r i a b l e s { ý * } d e te rm in e d a s e x - p o s t f o r e o a s t s on t h e b a s i s o f t h e w hole s y s te m o f e q u a t i o n s , n am ely

yt fl - f [ $ t " ľ ľ . , ^ t - T 1 ) * x t ] f o r *aoh P«r l -°d *»

w herei s - num ber o f i t e r a t i o n , у v e o to r o f endogenous v a r i a -b l e s , x - v e o to r o f exogenous v a r i a -b l e s , T - l a g i n d i o a t o r .

The c o n t r o l s o l u t i o n o f t h e m odel oan be o b ta in e d d i r e c t l y from i t s s t r u c t u r a l form (w ith o u t d e r i v i n g i t s f i n a l fo rm ) u t i -l i z i n g i t e r a t i v e p r o c e d u r e s .T h is i s e s p e c i a -l -l y I m p o rta n t f o r non-l i n e a r s y s te m s . T hese p r o c e d u r e s assum e m u l t i p l e g e n e r a t i o n o f v a lu e s o f l e f t - h a n d - s i d e v a r i a b l e s th ro u g h s u b s t i t u t i n g the v a lu e s o b ta in e d i n t h e p r e v io u s i t e r a t i o n t o t h e r i g h t - h a n d - s i d e endo-g en o u s v a r i a b l e s and assu m in g t h e o b s e rv e d v a lu e s o f exogenous v a r i a b l e s .

The v a lu e s o f o t h e r p r e d e te r m in e d v a r i a b l e s , i . e . endogenous la g g e d v a r i a b l e s a r e e i t h e r s e t e q u a l t o t h e i r o b s e rv e d v a lu e s - s t a t i c s im u l a t io n o r p u t e q u a l t o t h e i r v a lu e s com puted by t h e sy ste m f o r p r e v io u s p e r i o d s - dynam ic s i m u l a t i o n , w hich w i l l be a n a ly s e d b e lo w .

The c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e o o n tin u e d t i l l a s u b s e q u e n t s o l u t i o n d o es n o t d i f f e r from t h e p r e v io u s one by l e s s th a n a s m a ll c o n s t a n t .

I t oan be a rg u e d t h a t t h e m odel r e f l e c t s t h e r e a l w o rld pheno-mena t h e b e t t e r , t h e more p r e c i s e l y t h e s o l u t i o n c o rr e s p o n d s t o t h e o b s e rv e d v a lu e s

The f o llo w in g s t a t i s t i c s a r e commonly u se d f o r e c a s t s o f a c -c u ra -c y m easu res} 1 ) t h e mean e r r o r » N M E - ы T j ( ч - y t ) * 1-1 2 ) t h e a v e ra g e a b s o l u t e e r r o r * n “ ■ - I L I - h \ • i »1 3 ) t h e mean p e r c e n ta g e e r r o r i

" r a ■ Я Ľ _{— j * 1 0 0 .}

i- 1

1

4 ) t h e mean a b s o l u t e p e r c e n ta g e e r r o r : MAPE - jj ^ ■*- 1 0 0 . i - 1 1 The c o n t r o l s o l u t i o n f o r t h e W3S79 m odel h a s b e e n o b t a i n e d u s in g t h e I t e r a t i v e p r o c e d u r e b a s e d on G a u s s - S e id e l m eth o d , and c o m p u te r p ro g ram s ЛКЫ0 and MIM4.

S in o e t h e s t a t i s t i c s M£ and HAS c a n n o t b e oom pared i n t h e c a s e o f v a r i a b l e s e x p r e s s e d i n v a r i o u s u n i t s , a t t e n t i o n was f o -c u s s e d on t h e a n a l y s i s o f r e l a t i v e m e a s u re s MPE and MAPE. The r e s u l t s a r e sum m arized i n T a b . 1*

T a b l e 1

C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e c o n t r o l s o l u t i o n

S h a r e s i n % o f v a r i a b l e s f o r w hich t h e a t a t l s t l o s S t a t i s t l o s MPE and MAPE assum e t h e v a lu e s

. ' 0 -2 2 -5 5 -1 0 1 0 -2 0 20 and more MPE 8 4 .0 . 1 0 .9 2 .4 0 .6 2 .1 MAPE 3 0 .2 4 2 .6 15.1 6 .9 5 .2 The above p r e s e n t e d I n f o r m a t io n t e s t i f i e s t o a f a i r l y h ig h a c c u r a c y o f e x - p o s t f o r e o a s t s g e n e r a te d from t h e c o n t r o l s o l u t i o n . P o r t h e m a j o r i t y (72.856) o f t h e a n a ly s e d v a r i a b l e s , t h e mean a b s o l u t e p e r c e n ta g e e r r o r MAPE was b e lo w 5% and f o r 17% o f v a r i a -b l e s i t was s m a l l e r th a n 13í . Low a c c u r a c y w a » o b t a i n e d o n l y i n t h e c a s e o f s u r p l u s o f e x p o r t s o v e r im p o r ts (SG, SG P), in v e n t o r y i n c r e a s e (DRZ,DRlfZ, DRNH) and in c r e m e n t o f p e r s o n a l savings(D O Z L , с Where t h e v a r i a b l e s w ere d e f i n e d e i t h e r a s " s m a l l " r e s i d u a l s o r i n c r e m e n t s .

DOZLP, DOKL), T h u s, I t c a n b e c la im e d t h a t from t h e fo rm a l p o i n t Of view t h e sy ste m o f e q u a ti o n s c o n s t i t u t i n g t h e W3S79 m odel oan be t r e a t e d a s s a t i s f a c t o r y .

3 . M u l t i p l i e r s A n a ly s is

I n o r d e r t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h e dynam ic p r o p e r t i e s o f t h e m odel t h e m u l t i p l i e r s - d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t , w e r e c o m p le te d a g a i n s t exo-gen o u s v a r i a b l e s and i n t e r c e p t te rra s i n t h e s e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a -t i o n s i n w hich t h e ch an g e o f i n t e r c e p t c o u ld be i n t e r p r e t e d a s a d i r e c t e f f e c t o f a p p ly in g a g iv e n in s tr u m e n t o f t h e econom ic p o l i c y ( e . g . i n t h e e q u a ti o n s e x p l a i n i n g w o rk in g tim e a s an e f f e c t o f t h e s o c i a l m easu re i n t r o d u c i n g a d d i t i o n a l f r e e S a t u r d a y s ) .

I n t h e p a p e r we s h a l l r e s t r i c t o u r a t t e n t i o n t o t h e m u l t i -p l i e r s a n a l y s i e show ing t h e im p a c t o f t h o s e a r e a s and p o l i c y m e a su re s w hich I n o u r o p i n io n p la y t h e m ost im p o r ta n t r o l e i . e . f o r e i g n t r a d e , in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s , a c t i v i t i e s o f p a r t i c u l a r i n -d u s t r i a l b r a n c h e s an-d a g r i c u l t u r e . T hese a r e t h e s e c t o r s o f t h e n a t i o n a l economy w hich have a d e c i s i v e i n f l u e n c e on t h e g e n e r a l econom ic p e rfo rm a n c e and d e te r m in e t h e p r o s p e c t s f o r o v erc o m in g t h e p r e s e n t econom ic c r i s i s .

3.1« F o r e ig n t r a d e and t h e n a t i o n a l eoonomy

One o f im p o r ta n t s e c t o r s of t h e m odel i s a subm odel o f im p o r ts and e x p o r t s b e c a u s e o f i t s i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s w ith o t h e r b lo c k s ( s e e P i g . 3 ) .

The m ain ex o genous v a r i a b l e s i n t h i s b lo c k a r e e x p o r t and im p o rt p r i c e s , c u m u la te d f o r e i g n t r a d e b a la n c e t o t a l and w ith th e s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s ( b e i n g a synonym f o r f o r e i g n d e b t s ) and c o e f f i c i e n t s o f s e c t o r a l a l l o c a t i o n o f i m p o r t s .B e s i d e e , i t i s d e s i r a -b l e t o a n a ly s e t h e c h a n g e s i n " p r o p e n s i t i e s t o e x p o r t" and i n d i r e c t i o n s o f e x p o r t s . We s h a l l c a r r y o u t t h i s a n a l y s i s a p p ly in g t h e m u l t i p l i e r s b a s e d on sh o o k s in d u c e d by c h a n g e s u f i n t e r c e p t te rm s i n p a r t i c u l a r e x p o r t e q u a t i o n s .

D ynam ics o f t h e W3S79 m acrom odel a g a i n s t t h e c h a n g e s in d u c e d by f o r e i g n t r a d e s e c t o r w i l l be d i s c u s s e d u s i n g m u l t i p l i e r s c a l

-c u l a t e d w ith r e a p e o t t o PEN, PUD, MN/MD, SEMP and i n t e r c e p t i n e q u a ti o n EN . They a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T abs 2 - 7 , r e s p e c t i v e l y .

T h e re a r e com plex f e e d b a o k s b e tw e en e x p o r t s and im p o r ts and p ro d u c e d and d i s t r i b u t e d NMP, p r e s e n t e d i n g r a p h 1 . I t h a s t o be e m p h a s is e d , h o w e v e r, t h a t t h e m odel a s i t s t a n d s d o e s n o t f u l l y r e f l e c t t h e im p a c t o f im p o rt c o n s t r a i n t s , e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e con-c e r n i n g raw m a t e r i a l s , s e m i - f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s and s p a r e p a r t s from n o n - s o o i a l l s t o o u n t r i e s on t h e u t i l i s a t i o n o f p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t i e s , t h e s p r e a d o f b o t t l e - n e o k s a l l o v e r i n d u s t r y and d e o l i n e I n e f f l o l e n c y (d u e t o f o r o e d s u b s t i t u t i o n ) . T h e m u l t i p l i e r e f f e c t w ith r e g a r d t o t h e o r i s i s phenomena w i l l t h u s b e h i g h l y u n d e r e s t im a t e d .

The i n o r e a s e o f e x p o r t s i n p a r t i o u l a r com m odity g ro u p s by 1QÍ a s w e ll a s an 10^ i n c r e a s e o f e x p o r t s t o n o n - s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s i s e q u i v a l e n t t o an e x o e r c l s e , w here t o t a l e x p o r t i s i n c r e a s e d by 10^» i t s c o m p o s itio n by oom m odlty g ro u p s and r e g i o n s b e in g u n c h a n g e d . T h is i n o r e a s e i s fo llo w e d by an i n c r e a s e o f im p o r ts (U D ), w hich i n f l u e n c e s t h e p r o d u o tl v e a c t i v i t i e s . The in c r e m e n ts o f i n d u s t r i a l n e t o u tp u t ( I Q ) by 2.356 a r e a s o u r c e o f a d d i t i o n a l e x p o r t s i n c r e a s e . A l t o g e t h e r e x p o r t s (ED) grow by 11.3S6 (o f* T a b .2 ). 7 C f . P i g s 1 - 3 . Q I n m odel W-5 we t r i e d e x p l i o i t l y t o t a k e I n t o a c o o u n t t h e ab ove e f f e c t s .

M u l t i p l i e r s o f s e l e c t e d en d o g en o u s v a r i a b l e s w ith r e s p e o t t o one p e r i o d im p u ls e i n c r e a s e by 1036 ( i . e . t o t a l l y by 4 . 5 8 ) i n t h e c o n s t a n t o f e q u a ti o n s e x p l a i n i n g e x p o r t s by com m odity g ro u p s ( £ 1 , £ 2 4 , £ 3 , £ 7 , EPO) and t o n o n s o c i a l l s t c o u n t r i e s (E N ) V a r ia - _{U n i t s} --- --- — --- !... . ... L ag s i n y e a r b l e s _{0 1 2 3 4 5 10} I b i l l * s i % 2 5 .3 9 8 1 .4 1 2 6 2 9 .7 4 2 1.5641 6 .8 4 0 0 .3 3 6 5 6 .9 5 0 0 .3 2 0 0 7 .6 9 9 0 .3 9 2 3 8 .6 0 7 0 .3 4 8 4 1 4 .7 1 7 0 .4 1 8 6 XQ b i l l . z ł % 2 1 .9 8 5 7 2 .3 0 3 1 2 6 .5 9 2 4 2 .5 6 5 7 9 .3 3 3 5 0 .8 1 8 5 5 .5 9 5 0 0 .3 3 6 9 5 .1 7 1 9 0.3781 5 .6 5 9 0 0 .3 8 0 4 9 .1 4 6 3 0 .1 4 0 9 XG b i l l . z ł % 2 4 ,1 6 8 2 1 .3 6 1 0 2 9 ,1 5 9 2 1 .5 5 2 3 6 .7 4 4 3 0 .3 3 5 8 6 .8 4 4 9 O .319O 7 .6 1 8 9 0 .3 3 2 8 8 .5 2 3 8 0 .3 4 9 2 1 4 .5 8 0 4 O.4 1 9 4 Y b i l l . z ł % 8 .2 7 1 3 О .64О4 9 .3 5 5 5 0 .7 0 4 4 7 .0 2 5 6 0 .5 0 9 9 5 .4 7 1 2 0 .3 8 1 3 4 .4 8 3 3 0 .2 9 9 9 3 .8 5 3 4 0 .2 4 7 6 3 .2 8 0 9 0 .1 7 5 3 CX b i l l . z ł % 2 5 .2 9 5 8 2 .3 1 8 9 2 9 .1 4 1 6 2 .5 3 2 2 1 0 .3 2 4 4 0 .8 3 6 5 6 .0 2 3 5 0.4 5 4 1 5 .3 5 8 5 0 .3 7 6 4 5 .6 3 5 2 0 .3 6 9 5 8 .6 7 9 5 0 .4 0 3 4 J b i l l . z ł * 11.8841 1 .8 7 9 2 1 5 .4 9 6 8 2 .3 7 5 5 5 .1 7 9 7 0.7 5 5 1 2 .9 1 4 9 0.4 0 2 1 2 .6 3 9 8 О .З441 2 .8 3 1 9 0 .3 4 8 4 4 .2 7 1 2 0 .3 8 5 8 M u lt ip li e rs Analysis B aa ed on th e V 3S 79 M o d el

V a r i a - _{U n i t s} > L ags i n y e a r ОХОВ 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 JHET b i l l . z ł 6 .4 2 1 7 8 .3 7 1 8 2 .7 9 8 2 1 .5 7 4 7 1.4261 1 .5 2 9 9 2 .3 0 7 4 % 1 .5 4 2 5 1 .9 6 0 5 0 .6 2 8 6 0 .3 3 7 8 0 .2 9 1 6 0 .2 9 7 8 0 .3 4 3 0 SG b i l l . z ł 1 .2 2 9 9 9 2 0 .5 8 2 2 0 7 0 .0 9 6 7 9 8 0 .1 0 5 8 0 5 0 .0 8 0 2 1 0 0 .0 8 3 7 9 2 0 .1 3 6 6 1 3 % 5 .5 3 2 3 2 .5 2 4 6 : ' j • ■ • 1 .4 8 1 3 0.3 9 6 1 0 .4 0 7 8 0 .2 9 1 2 0 .2 8 6 7 0 .3 4 4 7 ED b i l l . z ł ex ch an g e 5 .2 7 4 9 0 .5 1 7 2 1 0 .3 0 4 7 0 .2 7 6 2 0 .2 9 7 4 0 .4 8 4 4 % 1 1 .3 0 1 0 0 .9 5 2 6 0 .9 4 2 0 0 .5 0 6 9 0 .5 2 1 4 O.4 1 7 5 0 .4 5 2 2 UD b i l l . z ł ex ch an g e 5.175051 v • 1 .4 3 4 0 1 4 i 0 .5 0 9 3 3 7 0 .2 9 6 1 1 2 0.2 69705 0.290581 0 .4 7 3 2 5 6 % 1 1 .3 6 4 7 2 .9 2 8 9 0 .9 5 0 6 0 .5 0 4 7 O.4 216 0.4181 0 .4 5 2 7 K a ri a L u b e ra, M a rl a P o ta rg o w le ?,, W ła d у ała w We lfe

The i n c r e a s e o f p ro d u c e d NMP by 1.4% a s vrell a s d i s t r i b u t e d NMP (XG)of 1.4% g i v e s a r i s e i n consum er goods s u p p l i e s (CX) o f 2*335 and i n in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s t o t a l ( J ) o f 1.956 and n e t (JNET) o f 1.5% . N ext y e a r b r i n g s s l i g h t l y h i g h e r r a t e s o f g ro w th o f NMP p ro d u c e d and d i s t r i b u t e d , s u p p l i e s o f oonsum er and in v e s tm e n t g o ods ( r e s p e c t i v e l y by 1 . 5 , 2 . 6 , 2 .5 and 2 .4 % ). I n t h e 3 rd and 4 t h y e a r s t h e m u l t i p l i e r s e f f e c t s d i e , w h e re as i n t h e f o ll o w i n g y e a r s due t o t h e f e e d b a c k l i n k i n g in v e s tm e n t and NMP t h e i r p o s i -t i v e im p a c -t c a n b e o b s e rv e d a g a i n . G iv en t h e l e v e l o f t o t a l e x p o r t s (ED) u n c h a n g ed t h e g ro w th o f e x p o r t s t o n o n - s o o i a l i s t o o u n t r i e s ( EN) w i l l o a u s e t h e e q u i v a l e n t d e c r e a s e o f e x p o r t s t o t h e s o c i a l i s t o o u n t r i e s ( E S ) . I n o r d e r t o a n a ly s e t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e above l i k e l y c h a n g e ,w h io h means p a r t l y r e s t o r i n g t h e p r e v i o u s f o r e i g n t r a d e s h a r e s t h e m u l t i p l i e r s w ere c a l c u l a t e d i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e l n t e r o e p t i n t h e s t o c h a s t i o e q u a-t i o n e x p l a i n i n g EN ( o f . T a b . 3 ) . As a r e s u l t o f t h e assum ed I m p u ls e , i . e . t h e g ro w th o f s h a r e o f EN i n ED by 10 p o i n t s , d u e t o d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n e x p o r t p r i o e s t o b o th g ro u p s o f c o u n t r i e s , t h e r e was an i n c r e a s e o f t o t a l e x p o r t s a t c u r r e n t p r i c e s ( E P ) , w hich i n t u r n , o a u se d an i n c r e a s e o f im p o r ts a t c u r r e n t p r i o e s (MP) and o o n s ta n t p r i o e s (MD) by 0.5% . As a c o n s e q u e n c e , a n e g a t i v e f o r e i g n t r a d e b a la n c e a t c o n -s t a n t p r i c e -s wa-s o b ta in e d w hich g a v e a weak im p u ls e to w a rd s p r o -d u c ti o n i n c r e a s e , an-d t h e r e f o r e a n e g l i g i b l e i n c r e a s e o f t o t a l e x p o r t s a t c o n s t a n t p r i c e s (b y 0 .0 6 % ). At t h e same tim e t h e r e was a s m a ll i n c r e a s e (b y l e s s th a n 0.1% ) o f p e r s o n a l c o n su m p tlo n (C X ), in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s ( J and JNET) and s o o l a l c o n su m p tio n ( G ) . The s h o r t - t e r m r e s u l t p ro v e d t o b e an i n o r e a s e i n s t o c k s o f i n v e n t o -r i e s by 1 .6 % .In t h e n e x t y e a -r , a s l i g h t l y h i g h e -r i n o -r e a s e o f NMP, c o n s u m p tio n and in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s by 0 .0 6 , 0 .1 0 and 0.10% r e s p e -c t i v e l y , was o b s e r v e d . An a d d i t i o n a l i n c r e a s e o f e x p o r t s ( a s a r e s u l t o f n e t p r o d u o tio n i n o r e a s e ) in d u c e s a s i m i l a r i n o r e a s e o f i m p o r t s , w hioh i n t u r n c a u s e s , t h a t t h e d i s t r i b u t e d NMP i n c r e a -s e -s -s lo w e r t h a n t h e p ro d u o ed o n e . S in c e t h e p e r s o n a l c o n su m p tio n and i n v e s tm e n ts i n c r e a s e d , t h e s to o k s o f i n v e n t o r i e s and ^ s o o la l c o n s u m p tio n d e c r e a s e d . A f t e r 3 -4 y e a r s t h e m u l t i p l i e r s e f f e c t s e x p i r e , and t h e n due t o a f e e d b a c k b e tw e e n p ro d u o e d NMP and i n -v e s tm e n ts , t h e i r slo w I n o r e a s e i s o b s e r -v e d .

M u l t i p l i e r s o f s e l e c t e d en d o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s w ith r e s p e c t t o one p e r i o d im p u ls e i n c r e a s e by 1 .7 9 b i l l , o f ex ch an g e s ł o t y i . e . by 10$ i n t h e c o n s t a n t o f e q u a ti o n e x p l a i n i n g e x p o r t s t o n o n s o o l a l l s t o o u n t r i e s (EH) V a r ia -b l e s U n i t s _{0 1 2} L a g s i n y e a r s 3 4 5 10 . s s b i l l , s ł e x ch an g e % 2 .1 0 6 8 1 1 .9 8 9 0 0 .0 1 7 4 4 0 .0 9 1 4 0 .0 1 0 1 2 0 .0 4 8 4 0 .0 0 4 1 1 4 0 .0 1 7 9 0 .0 0 4 3 2 6 0 .0 1 7 3 0 .0 0 4 7 5 6 O .I 75O 0 .0 0 7 7 2 4 0 .0 1 8 8 X b i l l , s ł % 1 .0 2 7 3 2 0 .0 5 7 1 1 .2 0 2 3 0 .0 6 3 2 0 .2 7 6 8 0 .1 3 6 0 0.2 8 1 1 0 .0 1 2 9 0 .3 1 1 6 0 .0 1 3 4 0 .3 4 8 4 0.0 1 4 1 0 .5 9 5 9 0 .0 1 6 9 XQ b i l l , s ł * 0 .8 8 9 2 0.0 9 3 1 1 .0 7 5 4 0 .1 0 3 7 0 .3 7 7 6 0.0 3 3 1 0 .2 2 6 3 0.0 1 8 1 0 .2 0 9 3 0 .0 1 5 3 0.2 2 9 1 0 .0 1 5 4 0 .3 7 0 5 0 .0 1 6 6 XG b i l l , s ł * . 1 b i l l , s ł f 3.2581 0 .1 8 3 5 1 .1 7 9 3 0 .0 6 2 8 0 .2 7 2 2 0 .0 1 3 6 0 .2 7 7 2 0 .0 1 2 9 0 .3 0 8 8 0 .0 1 3 5 0 .3 4 5 5 0 .0 1 4 2 0 .5 8 9 7 0 .0 1 7 6 I 0 .3 4 2 5 0 .0 2 6 5 0 .3 9 0 8 0 .0 2 9 4 0 .2 9 3 8 0 .0 2 1 3 0 .2 2 7 5 0 .0 1 5 9 0 .1 8 5 2 0 .0 1 2 4 0 /1581 0 .0 1 0 2 O .I 329 0.0 0 7 1 CX b i l l , s ł 1.0231 0 .0 9 3 8 1 .1 8 0 6 0 .1 0 2 6 0 .3 1 8 4 0 .0 3 3 9 0 .2 4 3 9 0 .0 1 8 4 0.2 1 7 1 0 .0 1 5 2 0 .2 2 8 4 O.O I5 O 0.3521 0 .0 1 6 3 J b i l l , s ł * 0 .4 8 0 8 0 .0 7 6 0 0 .6 2 7 9 0 .0 9 6 2 0 .2 0 9 9 0 .0 3 0 6 0.1181 O.OI63 0 .1 0 6 9 O .O I39 0 .1 1 4 8 O.O I4 I 0 .1 7 3 9 0 .0 1 5 6 y ia ri a lu b ff ra , M ar la P o ta r[ -o v ri c z , W ła d y sł a w W > lf a

JNET b i l l , z ł 0 .2 5 9 7 0 .3 3 9 2 f 0 .0 6 2 4 0 .0 7 9 4 SO b i l l , s ł - 2 .2 3 1 7 0 .0 2 5 7 6 * -1 0 .0 4 4 5 0 .1 0 3 0 ED b i l l . Z ł ex o h acg e 0 .0 2 8 1 0 0 .0 5 9 9 0 % 0 .0 6 0 2 0 .1 1 9 4 MD b ilif.. z ł ex ch an g e 0 .2 0 9 3 0 .0 5 8 0 0 * 0 .4 5 9 6 0 .1 1 8 5 0 b i l l , z ł 0 .5 8 1 2 - 0 .1 8 7 9 * 0 .3 1 8 9 - 0 .1 0 5 4 DR b i l l , z ł 1.3941 - 0 .1 5 2 7 % 1 .6 1 5 5 - 0 .1 2 5 0 ES b i l l , z ł •x o h an g e - 2 .0 7 8 7 0 .0 4 2 5 * - 7 .1 4 1 5 0 .1 3 6 6 0 .1 1 3 4 0 .0 2 5 5 0 .0 0 3 7 5 0 0 .0 1 5 3 0 .0 2 0 9 2 0.0381 0 .0 2 0 5 9 0 .0 3 8 4 0 .5 Ю 4 0 .2 8 2 2 - 0 .7 6 9 9 -0.5206 0 .0 1 0 8 0 .0 3 1 7 0 .0 6 3 7 9 0 .0 1 3 7 0 .0 5 7 8 0 0 .0 1 1 8 0 .0 6 2 0 0 0 0.0 1 2 1 0.09361 0 .0 1 3 9 O.OO464O 0 .0 1 7 9 0 .0 0 3 5 7 9 0 .0 1 3 0 0 .0 0 3 7 5 2 0 .0 1 2 8 0 .0 0 5 3 9 3 0 .0 1 3 6 0 .0 1 2 3 2 0 .0 2 0 5 0 .0 1 1 7 8 O.O I7 I 0 .0 1 2 0 4 9 .0 1 6 9 0 .0 1 9 6 2 0 .0 1 8 3 0 .0 1 1 9 8 0 .0 2 0 4 0 . 010Э2 O .O I7 I 0 .0 1 1 7 7 0 .0 1 6 9 0 .0 1 9 1 6 0 .0 1 8 3 0 .1 4 1 9 0 .0 7 2 8 0 .0 5 1 6 8 0 .0 2 4 2 O.O2 7 9 I O .O II9 0 .0 9 8 4 9 0 .0 2 4 2 - O . I 725 - 0 .1 0 9 6 - 0 .0 1 7 8 2 - 0 .0 1 1 0 O.O2718 0 .0 1 6 3 0 .0 4 5 5 5 0 .0 1 8 7 0 .0 0 8 2 0.0221 0 .0 0 6 9 0 .0 0 1 6 9 0 .0 0 7 3 0 .0 1 6 5 0 .0 1 1 9 0 .0 1 8 0 w M u lt ip li e rs A nal ysi s B as ed on th e ’«'3 S? 9 M o d el

The above e x c e r o is e d i d n o t y i e l d s a t i s f a c t o r y r e s u l t s , a s t h e m odel d o e s n o t l i n k d i r e o t l y t h e i n o r e a s e d r e o e i p t s o f h a r d c u r - r e n o y w ith im p o r ts from t h e m a rk e t e c o n o m ie s, t h u s i t d o e s n o t a llo w t o show t h e p r o o e s s o f e l i m i n a t i n g b o t t l e n e c k s and i n e f -f i c i e n c y w hich m ig h t b e a l i k e l y r e s u l t o f i n c r e a s e i n Im p o rts from m a rk e t econom ies* I t i s , h o w e v e r, p o s s i b l e t o com bine t h i s a n a l y s i s w ith an a n a l y s i s o f r e s p e c t i v e ex o genous c h a n g e i n im p o r ts s h a r e s .

A n o th e r way o f show ing t o what e x t e n t t h e W3S79 m odel r e f l e c t s t h e d e p e n d en c e o f t h e P o l i s h eoonomy on f o r e i g n t r a d e w ith t h e m a rk e t eco nom ies was t o c a l c u l a t e t h e m u l t i p l i e r s w ith r e s p e c t t o e x p o r t p r l o e s t o n o n - s o o l a l i s t c o u n t r i e s (PE N ), A d e c r e a s e o f e x p o r t p r i o e s may s e r v e a s a p ro x y e i t h e r f o r r e s t r i c t i n g p r a c t i -c e s d i r e -c t l y f o r e o a s t i n g a p r i o e d e o l i n e o r i n d i r e o t l y by means o f i n c r e a s i n g o u sto m s d u t i e s 9 . The c a l c u l a t e d m u l t i p l i e r s show ing t h e r e s u l t o f IO56 d e c r e a s e i n PEN^® a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b . 4» A g a i n ,th e r e s u l t s o f t h i s e x o e r o l s e a r e o n ly J o i n t l y s a t i s f a c t o r y . T hrough t h e d e o r e a s e o f e x p o r t s t o n o n - s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s i n con-s t a n t and c u r r e n t p r i c e s (БЫ and ENP by 2 .8 and 12.5% , r e s p e c t i -v e l y ) and t h u s th r o u g h d e c r e a s e o f t o t a l e x p o r t s ( d e s p i t e a s l i g h t I n c r e a s e o f e x p o r t s t o s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s ES by 0.7% ) t h e g iv e n im p u ls e c a u s e d i n t h e same tim e p e r i o d a d e c r e a s e o f Im p o r ts a t c o n s t a n t p r i c e s (MD) by 4.5% . As a r e s u l t t h e p ro d u c e d NMP (X) d e c r e a s e d by 0.6% and t h e d i s t r i b u t e d NMP(XG) d e c r e a s e d much more - by 1.8% .

T h is means a d e c r e a s e o f p e r s o n a l c o n su m p tio n (b y 0 .9% У and t o t a l In v e s tm e n t (b y 0,8% ) and a l s o o f s o o i a l c o n s u m p tio n (b y 3.2% ) and s t o c k s o f i n v e n t o r i e s (b y 1 5 .9 % ). I n t h e n e x t y e a r , a s a r e s u l t o f im p o rt l i m i t a t i o n s we oan o b s e rv e a f u r t h e r d e c r e a s e o f p ro d u c e d NMP (b y 0 .6 % ), I n v e s tm e n ts (b y 1 .0 % ), p e r s o n a l co n -s u m p tio n ( b y 1.0% ) and t h e volum e o f t o t a l e x p o r t -s (b y 1 .2 % ). The d e c r e a s e o f e x p o r t s i s so d eep t h a t i t e n f o r c e s e x p o r t l i m i t a t i o n t o t h e s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s ES" (by V.4%).A s l i g h t l y s lo w e r d e c r e a -s e i -s o b -s e rv e d i n d i -s t r i b u t e d NMP w hich e n a b le -s an i n c r e a -s e o f 9 T h is c o u ld b e e x p e c te d a s a r e s u l t o f w ith d ra w in g t h e o o a t - f a v o u r e d - n a t i o n t r e a t m e n t by t h e USA. 10 T h is means d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f t h e g e n e r a l o o e f f l o i e n t o f te r m s o f t r a d e .

M u l t i p l i e r s o f s e l e c t e d en d o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s w ith r e s p e c t t o one p e r i o d im p u ls e d e c r e a s e by 0 .1 i . e . by 10% i n t h e p r i c e in d e x o f e x p o r t s t o n o n s o c l a l l s t c o u n t r i e s (PEH) V a r i a b l e s UOllB Laga i n y e a r s 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 X b i l l . % z ł - 1 0 .1 2 2 9 - 0 .5 6 2 9 - 1 1 .8 4 9 4 - 0 .6 2 3 1 - 2 .7 2 4 8 - 0 .1 3 4 0 - 2 .7 7 2 6 - 0 .1 2 7 7 - 3 .0 7 3 0 -0 .1 3 2 6 - 3 .4 3 6 2 - 0 .1 3 9 1 - 5 .8 7 1 3 - 0 .1 6 6 9 XQ b i l l . % z ł - 8 .7 6 2 2 - 0 .9 1 7 8 - 1 0 .5 9 8 8 - 1 .0 2 2 5 - 3 .7 2 1 0 - 0 .3 2 6 3 - 2 .2 3 1 4 - 0 .1 7 8 2 - 2 .0 6 3 3 - 0 ,1 5 0 8 - 2 .2 5 8 5 - 0 .1 5 1 8 -3 .6 5 1 9 - 0 .1 6 4 0 XG b i l l . % z ł - 3 2 .1 1 3 2 - 1 .8 0 8 3 - 1 1 .6 1 8 3 - 0 .6 1 8 5 - 2 .6 8 5 6 - 0 .1 3 3 7 - 2 .7 3 0 0 - O . I 272 - З .О 4О6 - 0 .1 3 2 8 - З .4 0 2 3 - 0 /1 3 9 4 - 5 .8 1 5 8 - 0 .1 6 7 2 Y b i l l . % z ł - 3 .4 2 2 0 - 0 .2 6 4 9 - 3 .9 2 4 0 - 0 .2 9 5 4 - 2 .9 5 1 5 - 0 .2 1 4 2 - 2 .2 8 5 4 - 0 .1 5 9 3 - 1 .8 5 5 8 - O . I 24I - 1 .5 7 9 9 - 0 .1 0 1 5 - I .3 1 3 9 - 0 .0 7 0 2 CX b i l l . % z ł - 1 0 .0 8 1 5 -0 .9 2 4 1 -1 1 .6 3 6 1 - 1 .0 1 0 9 - 4 .1 2 2 8 - 0 .3 3 3 9 - 2 .4 0 5 7 - 0 .1 8 1 3 - 2 .1 4 0 8 - 0 .1 5 0 3 - 2 .2 5 2 0 - 0 .1 4 7 6 - 3 .4 7 0 0 -0 .1 6 1 1 J b i l l . % z ł - 4 .7 3 7 6 - 0 .7 4 8 9 - 6 .1 8 8 7 - 0 .9 4 8 5 - 2 .0 6 8 8 - O . 3OI5 - 1 .1 6 4 5 - 0 .1 6 0 6 - 1 .0 5 4 9 - 0 .1 3 7 4 - 1 .1 3 1 9 - 0 .1 3 9 2 - 1 .7 0 8 0 - 0.1 5 4 1 JNET b i l l . % z ł - 2 .5 5 9 3 - 0 .6 1 4 7 - 3 .3 4 3 3 - 0 .7 8 2 8 - 1 .1 1 7 6 - O .2 5 IO -0 .6 2 9 1 - 0 .1 3 4 9 - 0 .5 6 9 9 -0 .1 1 6 5 - 0 .6 1 1 5 - 0 .1 1 9 0 - 0 .9 2 2 7 - 0 .1 3 7 0 SG b i l l . % z ł 2 1 .9 9 0 6 9 8 .9 7 7 5 - 0 .2 3 1 2 - 1 .0 0 2 7 - 0 .0 3 8 0 - 0 .1 5 5 4 - 0 .0 4 1 9 - 0 .1 6 1 6 -O .O 317 -0 .1 1 5 2 - 0 .0 3 3 2 - 0 .1 1 3 4 - 0 .0 5 4 3 - 0 .1 3 7 0 M u lt ip li e rs A nal ysi s B as ed on th e *3 57 9 M o d el

V a r i a b l e s U n ite L ag s i n y e a r s 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 £D b i l l , s ł exchage % - 0 .2 7 6 9 - 0 .5 9 3 3 - 0 .5 9 0 4 - 1 .1 7 6 7 -0*2061 - 0 .3 7 5 4 - 0 .1 2 1 5 -0 .2 0 2 1 - 0 .1 1 0 2 -0 .1 6 8 1 -0 .1 1 8 7 - 0 .1 6 6 6 -О .1 9 3 4 - 0 .1 8 0 5 MD b i l l . * ł ex ch an g e % - 2 .0 6 2 5 -4 .5 2 9 1 - 0 .5 7 1 6 - 1 .1 6 7 4 - 0 .2 0 3 0 - 0 .3 7 8 9 -0 .1 1 8 1 - 0 .2 0 1 2 - 0 .1 0 7 6 - 0 .1 6 8 2 - 0 .1 1 6 0 - 0 .1 6 6 8 - 0 .1 8 8 9 -0 .1 8 0 6 EH b i l l , z ł ex ch an g e % - 0 .4 8 9 7 -2 .7 8 7 1 -0 .1 7 2 1 - 0 .9 0 2 0 - 0 .0 9 9 8 -0 .4 7 7 6 —0 . O4O6 - 0 .1 7 6 9 - 0 .0 4 2 7 - 0 .1 7 0 6 -O .O 469 - O . I 727 -0 .0 7 6 1 -0 .1 8 5 5 ES b i l l , z ł ex ch an g e % 0 .2 1 2 8 0 .7 3 1 1 - 0 .4 1 8 3 - 1 .3 4 5 2 - 0 .1 0 6 3 -0 .3 1 2 6 - 0 .0 8 0 9 - 0 .2 1 7 6 - 0 .0 6 7 5 -0 .1 6 6 5 - 0 .0 7 1 8 - 0 .1 6 2 9 - 0 .1 1 7 2 - 0 .1 7 7 4 G b i l l , z ł % - 5 .7 3 4 3 -3 » 1 4 б 3 1 .8 5 7 9 1 .0 4 2 3 -5 .0 3 4 5 - 2 .7 8 3 7 - 1 .3 9 2 7 - 0 .7 1 3 8 - 0 .5 0 5 8 -0 .2 3 6 5 -Ó .2 7 0 7 - 0 .1 1 5 8 - 0 .9 7 4 4 - 0 .2 3 9 8 DR b i l l , s ł % - 1 3 .7 3 8 0 - 1 5 .9 1 9 5 1.5031 1 .2 3 0 6 7 .5 8 9 3 5 .1 3 1 4 1 .6 9 7 5 1.0781 0 .1 7 5 8 0 .1 0 8 5 - 0 .2 6 8 2 - 0 .1 6 0 3 - 0 .4 4 8 7 - 0 .1 8 3 9 K ar la Lu b ara, M ar ia P o ta rg o w io z , W ła dy sła w We lfe

e o o l a l c o n s u m p tio n G ( b y 1.0% ) and s t o c k s o f I n v e n t o r i e s (b y 1 .2 % ). A f t e r воле I n h i b i t i o n o f t h e d e c r e a s i n g te n d e n c y i n t h e ■eoond p e r i o d we o a n o b s e r v e d e e p e n in g o f n e g a t i v e e f f e c t s o f d e o r e a s e i n t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f e x p o r t s t o n o n - s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s . The m u l t i p l i e r s c a l c u l a t e d i n r e l a t i o n t o Im p o rt p r i c e s (PMD) a llo w u s t o a n a ly s e t h e d i r e c t I n f l u e n c e o f d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f g e n e r a l te r m s o f t r a d e on t h e econom io s i t u a t i o n o f t h e o o u n t r y . A c c o rd in g t o t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s .a n i n o r e a s e o f PUD by 0 .1 0 p o i n t s ( t h e e x p o r t p r i c e s k e p t o o n s t a n t ,n o a d d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s o f f i n a n c -i n g -im p o r ts a v a -i l a b l e ) c a u s e d s -i m -i l a r , a s f o r a s t h e d -i r e c t -i o n -i s o o n c e rn e d (b u t much s t r o n g e r r e a c t i o n s t h a n t h e p r e v i o u s l y a n a l y s -ed d e c r e a s e o f PEH ( o f . T a b . 5 ) . T h is o a n b e e x p la i n e d by t h e f a c t t h a t a n I n c r e a s e o f Im p o rt p r i o e s c a u s e d an im m e d ia te d e -o r e a s e -o f i m p -o r ts i n c -o n s t a n t p r i o e s (UD) by 9.3% w hich in d u c e d a d e c r e a s e o f n e t i n d u s t r i a l o u t p u t (XQ) by 1.9% and in v e s tm e n ts ( J ) by 1.5% ( m a in ly due t o t h e d e c r e a s e o f Im p o rt o f m a c h in e ry and e q u ip m e n t) . B e c a u se o f many r e s t r i c t i o n s im posed by im p o r ts on t h e o a p a c l t y u t i l i z a t i o n i t seem s m ost i n t e r e s t i n g t o a n a ly s e t h e i r Im p act ( h a v i n g i n m ind t h e u n c e r t a i n t y o f t h e a n a l y s i s ) t a k i n g i n t o a c c o u n t t h e m ain s o u r c e s o f f ln a n o l n g im p o r ts - e x p o r t s and n e t - f i n a n c i n g on c r e d i t te rm s ( a n d / o r o t h e r s o u r c e s ) . I n t h e W3S79 m odel im p o r ts i n o u r r e n t p r i o e s (MP) a r e d e t e r -m ined fro-m t h e i d e n t i t y o f t h e fo r-m t UP - EP - (SEMP - SEMP_ 1 ) , w h e re t SEUP - c u m u la te d f o r e i g n t r a d e b a l a n c e . Hence I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o a n a ly s e t h e m u l t i p l i e r s i n r e l a -t i o n e i -t h e r -t o e x p o r t s EP, w hich we w i l l p o s tp o n e , o r t o SEUP, i . e . t o t h e assum ed c h a n g e i n t h e o u r r e n t com m odity t r a d e b a la n c e .

A c h a n g e o f SEUP c a n b e a n a ly s e d u n d e r v a r i o u s a s s u m p tio n s w ith r e g a r d t o t h e assum ed b a la n o e at t r a d e w ith d i f f e r e n t c o u n tr y g r o u p s t

a ) sy m m e trlo ohange f o r s o o l a l i s t and n o n - s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s , b ) t o t a l I n c r e a s e o f new f i n a n c i n g p o s s i b i l i t i e s oom ing from h a r d c u r r e n c y a r e a s (SEUP * SNEUP, w here SNEUP — f o r e i g n t r a d e b a la n c e w i t h n o n - s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s ) .

f a b 1 e 5 M u l t i p l i e r s o f s e l e c t e d en d o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s w ith r e s p e c t t o one p e r i o d im p u ls e i n c r e a s e by u * i p o i n t s I* e * lQfr i n t h e p r i o e in d e x o f i m p o r ts from n o n s o c i a l i s t o o u n t r i e s (P1ID) ю. ON V a r i a - _{U n i t s Laga in y e a r s} 0 1 2 _{3 4 5 10} Z b i l l .s ł % -2 0 .7 9 4 -1 .1 5 6 5 -2 4 .3 3 9 -1 .2 8 0 0 -5.591 -0 .2 7 5 0 -5 .6 9 0 -0 .2 6 2 0 -6 .3 0 5 -0 .2 7 2 2 -7 .0 3 0 -0 .2 8 5 4 -1 2 .0 2 8 -0.3421 IQ b i l l . S ł * -18.001 -1 .8 8 5 6 -2 1 .7 7 3 -2 .1 0 0 7 -7 .6 4 2 -0 .6 7 0 2 -4 .581 -0 .3 6 5 9 -4 .2 3 4 -0 .3096 -4 .6 3 4 -0 .3 1 1 4 -7 .4 8 8 -0 .3 3 6 4 XG b i l l . z ł % -6 5 .9 7 2 -3 .7 1 5 0 -2 3 .8 6 4 -1 .2 7 0 4 -5 .5 1 3 -0 .2 7 4 5 —5.602 -0.2611 -6 .2 3 9 -0 .2 7 2 5 -6 .9 8 0 -0 .2 8 6 0 -1 1 .9 1 7 -0 .3 4 2 8 Y b i l l . z ł % -7 .1 1 1 2 -0 .5 5 0 6 -8 .1 8 9 7 -0 .6 1 6 6 -6 .1 6 0 5 -0.4471 -4 .7 6 1 2 -0 .3 3 1 8 -3 .8 5 4 8 -0 .2 5 7 8 -3 .2 7 1 5 -0 .2 1 0 2 -2 .6 9 8 3 -0 .1 4 4 2 CX b i l l . z ł % -2 0 .7 1 0 -1 .8 9 8 6 -2 3 .8 6 0 -2 .0 7 3 3 -8 .4 5 9 -0 .6 8 4 9 -4 .9 3 1 -0 .3 7 1 8 -4 .3 8 7 -0 .3 0 8 2 -4 .6 1 4 -0 .3 0 2 5 -7 .1 0 6 - о .з з о з J b i l l . z ł % -9 .7 3 2 4 -1 .5386 -1 2 .6 6 8 4 -1 .9 4 5 0 -4.2411 -0 .6 1 8 3 -2 .3 8 6 4 -0 .3 2 9 2 -2 .1 6 1 2 -0 .2 8 1 7 -2 .3 1 8 7 -0 .2 8 5 3 -3 .4 9 6 7 -0 .3 1 5 8 JHET b i l l .z ł * -5 .2 5 7 7 -1 .2 6 2 9 —6.8546 -1 .6 0 5 2 -2.2911 -0 .5 1 4 7 -1 .2 8 9 2 -0 .2 7 6 5 -1 .1 6 7 6 -0 .2 3 8 7 -1 .2 5 2 6 -0 .2 4 3 8 -1 .8 8 9 0 -0 .2 8 0 8 1‘a rV a Lu b er a. M ar la P o ta rg o w ic s, W ła dy sła w Welf#

SG b i l l . z ł % - 4 5 .1 7 6 4 ■203.3435 - 0 .4 7 4 0 - 2 .0 5 5 6 - 0 .0 7 8 7 - 0 .3 2 2 1 -0 .0 8 6 1 - 0 .3 3 1 7 - 0 .0 6 5 1 -О .2 3 6 4 - 0 .0 6 8 0 - 0 .2 3 2 7 - 0 .1 1 2 3 - 0 .2 8 3 4 ED b i l l . z ł e x ch an g e % - 0 .5 6 8 9 - 1 .2 1 8 9 - 1 .2 1 2 8 - 2 .4 1 7 4 - 0 .4 2 3 3 -0 .7 7 1 1 - 0 .2 4 9 4 - 0 .4 1 4 9 -0 .2 2 6 1 - 0 .3 4 5 0 - 0 .2 4 3 5 - 0 .3 4 1 9 - 0 .3 9 6 4 -0 .3 7 0 1 UD b i l l . z ł ex ch an g e % -4 .2 3 7 1 - 9 .3 0 4 8 - 1 .1 7 4 2 - 2 .3 9 8 4 - 0 .4 1 7 0 - 0 .7 7 8 2 - 0 .2 4 2 4 -О .4131 - 0 .2 2 0 8 - 0 .3 4 5 1 - 0 .2 3 7 9 - 0 .3 4 2 3 - 0 .3 8 7 4 -0 .3 7 0 5 ■ Ш _{b i l l . z ł} e x ch an g e % -0 .1 9 0 0 4 1 - 1 .0 8 1 6 -0 .3 5 4 0 7 6 - 1 .8 5 5 9 -0 .2 0 5 1 4 7 - 0 .9 8 1 5 - 0 .0 8 3 2 4 2 -О .3 6 3 2 -0 .0 8 7 5 5 9 - 0 .3 5 0 3 -0 .0 9 6 2 4 9 - 0 .3 5 4 5 - 0 .1 5 6 0 1 0 - 0 .3 8 0 3 ES b i l l . z ł ex ch an g e % -0 .3 7 8 8 7 8 - 1 .3 0 1 7 - 0 .8 5 8 6 - 2 .7 6 1 9 - 0 .2 1 8 1 8 5 - 0 .6 4 1 7 -0 .1 6 6 1 3 7 -O .4 4 6 7 -0 .1 3 8 5 0 8 - 0 .3 4 1 7 -0 .1 4 7 2 4 5 - 0 .3 3 4 2 - 0 .2 4 0 4 2 6 - 0 .3 6 3 9 го M u lt lp li e ra Aim ly s 1я B as ed on th e W JS 79 M o d el

M u l t i p l i e r s o f s e l e c t e d en d o g en o u s v a r i a b l e s w i t h r e s p e c t t o one p e r i o d im p u ls e i n c r e a s e by 5 .7 1 b i l l o f e x c h an g e s ł o t y i . e . b y 10% i n t h e SEUP V a r i a - _{U n its} b a g s i n y e a n Dies 0 . 1 2 3 4 5 10 z b i l l . s ł % 2 9 .0 6 2 1 1 .6 1 6 3 4 .9 7 6 8 0 .2 6 1 7 - 2 6 .3 0 2 2 - 1 .2 9 3 7 0 .0 3 5 8 0 .0 0 1 6 0 .8 2 4 8 0 .0 3 5 6 1 .0 3 0 2 0 .0 4 1 7 1 .0 5 78 0.0301 IQ b i l l . s ł Š 2 5 .1 5 6 8 2 .6 3 5 1 5 .2 7 5 3 0 .5 0 8 9 - 1 9 .7 3 9 4 - 1 .7 3 Ю - 4 .2 7 4 6 - 0 .3 4 1 4 - 0 .4 8 7 8 - 0 .0 3 5 7 0.5 5 6 1 0 .0 3 7 4 0 .7 2 3 9 0 .0 3 2 5 IG b i l l . s ł % J 9 2 .1 9 3 4 5 .1 9 1 5 - 5 8 .8 1 6 9 -3 .1 3 1 1 - 2 5 .7 3 5 2 - 1 .2 8 1 2 0 .0 3 1 6 0 .0 0 1 5 - 0 .8 5 6 8 0 .0 3 7 4 1 .0 2 7 0 0.0421 1 .0 4 4 8 0 .0 3 0 0 Y b i l l , s ł % 9 .4 2 7 6 0 .7 2 9 9 0 .8 3 1 1 0 .0 6 2 6 - 1 .9 0 8 8 - 0 .1 3 8 5 - 1 .0 8 9 3 - 0 .0 7 5 9 - 0 .5 4 5 0 - 0 .0 3 6 5 - 0 .2 2 5 6 - 0 .0 1 4 5 0 .2 0 5 1 0 .0 1 1 0 C I \ b i l l , s ł % 2 8 .9 4 4 6 2.6 5 3 1 4 .4 6 6 1 0 ^3880 -21*5633-- 1 .7 4 6 6 - 4 .9 2 7 7 - 0 .3 7 1 4 - 0 .7 6 6 2 - 0 .0 5 3 8 0 .3 1 4 3 0 .0 2 0 6 0 .6 9 1 5 0.0321 J b i l l , s ł % 1 3 .6 0 1 8 2.1501 4 .1 6 7 5 0 .6 3 8 7 - 1 1 .8 2 4 4 - 1 .7 2 3 3 -2 .5 9 5 1 - 0 .3 5 7 9 -0 .3 1 7 5 - 0 .0 4 1 4 0 .2 1 8 6 0 .0 2 6 9 0.3221 0.0291 JMET b i l l , s ł % * ’ 7 .3 4 8 0 1 .7 6 4 9 2 .2 5 1 4 0 .5 2 7 2 - 6 .3 8 7 8 - 1 .4 3 4 6 - 1 .4 0 1 9 - 0 .3 0 0 6 - 0 .1 7 1 5 -0 .0 3 5 1 0.1181 0 .0 2 3 0 0 .1 7 4 0 0 .0 2 5 8 •la ria L u b er a, K ar la P o ta rp o w ic a , W ła dy sła w W el fe

SG b i l l , z ł -6 3 .1 3 7 1 6 3 .7 9 3 1 - 0 .5 6 7 4 0 .0 0 5 6 -О.ОЗО9 0 .0 0 2 2 0 .0 1 1 5 * -2 8 4 .1 7 3 9 2 7 6 .6 0 8 0 - 2 .3 2 1 5 0 .0 2 1 5 - 0 .1 1 2 0 0 .0 0 7 5 0 .0 2 9 0 ED b i l l , z ł ex c h an g e -0 .7 9 5 1 0 .9 0 0 0 - 1 .1 0 3 2 - 0 .2 4 4 0 - 0 .0 3 3 4 0 .0 2 3 9 0 .0 3 8 2 % 1 .7 0 3 3 1 .7 9 3 8 - 2 .0 0 9 4 - 0 .4 0 5 9 - 0 .0 5 1 0 0 .0 3 3 5 0 .0 3 5 6 UD b i l l , s ł ex c h an g e 5 .9 2 1 4 - 4 .2 7 9 7 - 1 .0 5 7 2 - 0 .2 4 4 4 -О.ОЗО9 0 .0 2 3 7 0 .0 3 7 2 % 1 3 .0 0 2 9 - 8 .7 4 0 6 - 1 .9 7 2 9 - 0 .4 1 6 5 - 0 .0 4 8 3 ' О.ОЗ41 0 .0 3 5 6 EN b i l l , s ł ex c h an g e 0 .2 6 4 3 0 .2 3 5 7 - 0 .1 9 5 0 - 0 .1 6 5 5 0.0071 0 .0 1 3 5 O .O I4 I % 1 .5 0 3 9 1 .2 3 5 5 - 0 .9 3 2 9 -O .7 2 1 9 0 .0 2 8 3 0 .0 4 9 6 0 .0 3 4 4 ES b i l l , s ł ex c h an g e -0 .5 3 -0 8 0 .6 6 4 3 - 0 .9 0 8 2 - 0 .0 7 8 5 - 0 .0 4 0 5 0 .0 1 0 4 0.O241 % 1 .8 2 3 8 2 .1 3 6 4 - 2 .6 7 1 2 - 0 .2 1 1 1 - 0 .0 9 9 8 0 .0 2 3 6 0 .0 3 6 4 G b i l l , s ł 16.4581 - 2 1 .7 8 3 5 -1 9 .7 1 0 8 - 1 0 .5 4 8 2 - 2 .5 8 0 9 - 0 .6 8 6 8 O .I 44O % 9.0 3 0 1 - 1 2 .2 2 1 0 -1 0 .8 9 8 8 - 5 .4 0 6 2 - 1 .2 0 6 8 - 0 .2 9 3 7 0 .0 3 5 4 DR b i l l , s ł 3 9 .4 4 2 6 - 4 3 .7 5 0 8 -1 7 .4 9 4 8 1 6 .9 0 9 5 4 .3 7 5 3 1 .2 8 1 4 0 .0 3 5 3 * 4 5 .7 0 5 9 - 3 5 .8 1 8 7 - 1 1 .8 2 8 9 1 0 .7 3 9 3 2 .7 0 0 7 0 .7 6 6 1 0 .0 1 4 5 го vo K u lt ip ll e rs A nal ysi s B as ed on th e W 3S 79 M o d el

o ) t o t a l i n o r e a s e oom ing from a o o l a l l s t t r a d i n g p a r t n e r s (SNEMP c o n s t a n t ) . T h is l a s t o a s e o an b e e x p la in e d b y t h e f a o t t h a t a d d i t i o n a l s h o r t - t e r m o r e d i t s from s o c i a l i s t o o u n t r i e s a r e o b t a i n e d ( t o b e p a id b a c k i n one y e a r p e r i o d ) . The r e s u l t s o f t h i s s i m u l a t i o n a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T ab . 6 . The i n o r e a s e o f SEMP by 10% c a u s e d an im m e d ia te i n o r e a s e o f im p o r ts i n o o n s ta n t p r i o e s b y 13.0% . T h is e n a b le d an i n o r e a s e o f t h e n e t i n d u s t r i a l o u tp u t by 2.6% . T o t a l in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s i n -c r e a s e d by 2.2% and n e t o u t l a y s by 1.8% - a s a r e s u l t o f i n -c r e a s e i n im p o r ts o f m a o h in e ry and eq u ip m en t and o f e l e o t r o - e n g i n e e r i n g i n d u s t r y o u tp u t.T h e o b t a i n e d i n o r e a s e i n NMP (b y 1.6% ) e n a b le d an i n o r e a s e o f s u p p l i e s o f oonsum er goods (b y 2 .7 % ), and o f t o t a l e x p o r t s by 1.7% (EM by 1.5% and ES by 1 .8 % ). The NMP d i s t r i b u t e d i n c r e a s e d i n t h e f i r s t y e a r by 5.2% much h i g h e r th a n t h e NMP p ro d u o e d . I t means t h a t a d d i t i o n a l im p o r ts w ere n o t t o t a l l y a b s o rb e d i n p r o d u o tio n p r o c e s s and i n c r e a s e d s t o c k s o f i n v e n t o r i e s by 45% and o f s o o i a l c o n su m p tio n ( 0 ) . The i n o r e a s e b y 9.3% o f t h e l a s t c a te g o r y i s c l e a r l y o v e r e s t im a t e d (G i s d e te r m in e d a s r e s i -d u a l ) 11. The rep ay m en t o f f o r e i g n o r e d i t s i n t h e n e x t y e a r o a u s e e a d e c r e a s e o f im p o r ts (MD) b y 8.7% d e s p i t e an I n o r e a s e o f e x p o r t s by 1.8% . A p o s i t i v e f o r e i g n t r a d e b a la n o e , w ith a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e o f t h e p ro d u o ed NMP, c a u s e s a d e c r e a s e o f t h e d i s t r i b u t e d NMP by 3.1% w hich i s f o llo w e d by a d e c r e a s e o f i n v e n t o r y s to o k s (DR) by 35.8% an d a d e o r e a s e ( o v e r e s t i m a t e d a g a in ) o f s o o i a l o o n su m p tio n (G) by 12.2% . The d e c r e a s e o f raw m a t e r i a l Im p o r ts (M24) by 8.7% , a f f e c t i n g w ith o n e - y e a r l a g t h e o u tp u t o f e l e o t r o - e n g i n e e r i n g i n d u s t r y i n t h e se o o n d p e r i o d c a u s e d a d e c r e a s e o f i n d u s t r i a l o u tp u t by 1.7% and o f t h e p ro d u c e d and d i s t r i b u t e d NMP b y j . 3 % . C o n s e q u e n tly t h e r e was d e c r e a s e o f p e r s o n a l c o n su m p tio n by 1.7% , t o t a l i n v e s t -m ents by 1.7% , e x p o r t s by 2.0% , and i-m p o r ts by_2.Q% ,

S in c e t h e b e g in n in g o f t h e t h i r d y e a r , t h e m u l t i p l i e r s i n r e l a t i o n t o SEMP a r e c l o s e t o z e r o . On t h e w h o le , t h e r e i s a cu -m u la ti v e p o s i t i v e i-m p a c t o f t h e s h o r t - t e r -m c r e d i t on t h e econo-m io a c t i v i t y . A s u s t a i n e d im p a c t s h o u ld b r i n g , o f c o u r s e , h i g h e r s t a -b i l i z e d a c t i v i t y l e v e l s . 11 T h is rem a rk h a s a m ore g e n e r a l m e a n in g , i n d i o a t i n g a d e f -i c -i e n c y -i n t h e m odel s t r u c t u r e .

T a b 1 • 7 M u l t i p l i e r s o f s e l e c t e d en d o g en o u s v a r i a b l e s w ith r e s p e c t t o one p e r i o d im p u ls e i n c r e a s e by 0 .0 4 5 i . e . by 10% o f t h e r a t i o o f i m p o r ts t o n o n s o c i a l i s t o o u n t r i e s (MH/MD) V a r i a b l e s U n i t s L a g s i n y e a r s 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 Z b i l l , z ł % 1 7 .2 6 4 4 0 .9 6 0 2 -1 .5 9 2 1 - 0 .0 8 3 7 0 .8 4 1 9 0 .0 4 1 4 0 .8 0 5 8 0.0 3 7 1 0 .8 5 2 8 0 .0 3 6 8 • 0 .9 5 4 2 0 .0 3 8 6 1 .6 2 8 2 О.О463 IQ b i l l , s ł % 2 2 .1 2 7 8 0 .3 1 7 8 2 .9 6 1 3 0 .2 8 5 7 0 .7 7 7 4 0 .0 6 8 2 0 .5 7 5 2 0 .0 4 5 9 0 .5 7 6 7 O.O422 0 .6 3 0 7 O.O424 1 .0 1 2 6 0 .0 4 5 0 ZG b i l l , z ł % 1 6 .9 6 7 0 0 .9 5 6 4 - 1 .5 5 6 5 0 .0 8 2 9 0 .8 0 4 9 O.O4OI 0.7 9 4 1 0 .0 3 7 0 0.8 4 3 1 0 .0 3 6 8 0 .9 4 3 9 0 .0 3 8 7 1 .6 1 3 5 O.O464 Y b i l l , z ł % 7 .3 3 2 9 0 .5 8 3 2 4 .1 5 4 8 0 .3 1 2 8 2 .9 7 5 0 0 .2 1 6 9 1 .9 7 7 2 0 .9 3 1 8 1 .2 4 9 2 0 .0 8 3 3 0 .8 4 2 0 0.0 5 4 1 0 .3 8 3 1 0 .0 2 0 8 CZ b i l l , z ł % 2 3 .0 5 8 6 2 .1 1 3 6 3 .9 0 9 4 0 .3 3 9 6 1 .1 5 3 0 0 .0 9 3 4 0 .7 3 9 9 0 .0 5 5 8 0 .6 4 8 7 0 .0 4 5 5 0 .6 4 8 9 O.O425 0 .9 6 2 5 0 .0 4 4 7 J b i l l , z ł % 1 .4 6 1 9 0.2 3 1 1 1 .6 4 2 5 0.2671 0 .4 2 1 7 0 .0 6 1 6 0 .2 9 6 2 O.O4O8 0 .2 9 5 3 0 .0 3 8 5 0 .3 1 5 7 0 .0 3 8 8 0 .4 7 3 4 0 .0 4 2 7 M u lt ip li e rs An alysis B aa ed on th e W 3S 79 M o d el

V a r i a b l e s U n its L a g s i n y e a r s 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 JNET b i l l . E ł % 0 .7 8 9 8 0 .1 8 9 7 0 .9 4 1 3 0 .2 2 0 4 0 .2 2 7 8 0 .0 5 1 2 0 .1 5 9 9 0 .0 3 4 3 0 .1 5 9 5 0 .0 3 2 6 0 .1 7 0 6 0 .0 3 3 2 0 .2 5 5 8 0 .0 3 8 0 SO b i l l . z ł % 0.2 9 6 1 1 .3 3 2 0 '- 0 .0 8 6 1 - 0 .1 5 6 7 0 .0 3 5 3 0 .1 4 4 5 0 .0 1 0 5 0 .0 4 0 4 0 .0 0 8 6 0 .0 3 1 1 0 .0 0 9 0 0 .0 3 0 9 0 .0 1 5 4 0 .0 3 8 9 ED b i l l . z ł exchange % 0 .6 6 0 5 1 .4 1 5 0 0 .1 0 0 7 0 .2 0 0 6 0.0461 0 .0 8 4 0 0 .0 3 3 7 0 .0 5 6 0 0 .0 3 0 8 0 .0 4 7 0 0 .0 3 3 0 0 .0 4 6 3 0 .0 5 3 6 0 .0 5 0 0 MD b l l l . s ł exchange * 0 ,6 3 6 4 1 .3 9 7 6 0 .1 0 3 6 0 .2 1 1 6 0 .0 4 3 2 0 .0 8 0 7 0 .0 8 2 8 0 .0 5 5 9 0.0801 0.0 4 7 1 0 .0 6 2 2 0 .0 4 6 8 0 .0 6 2 3 0.0501 G b i l l . z ł % -3 9 .9 6 4 9 - 2 1 .9 2 7 7 2 2 .9 5 2 6 1 2 .3 7 2 0 2 .5 9 4 9 1 .4 3 4 8 0 .4 5 5 8 0 .2 3 3 6 0 .1 1 6 6 0 .0 5 4 5 0 .0 7 0 9 Ö .0303 0.2 7 1 1 0 .0 6 6 7 DR b i l l . z ł % 3 3 .0 8 3 6 3 3 .3 3 7 0 - 2 8 .4 5 9 9 -2 3 .3 0 0 1 - 3 .1 7 0 8 - 2 .1 4 3 9 - 0 .5 6 1 8 - 0 .3 5 6 8 - 0 .0 8 1 7 - 0 .0 5 0 4 0 .0 5 3 6 0 .0 3 2 0 0.1 2 4 1 0 .0 5 0 9 M ar a L u b o ra, M ar la P o ta rg o w lc t, W la dy ław Welf*

T o t a l Im p o rte l a c o n s t a n t p r i o e s (MD) a r e d i s t r i b u t e d among p a r t i c u l a r c a t e g o r i e s o f goods and paym ent a r e a s on t h e b a s i s o f p r e d e te r m in e d a l l o c a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s 2 . An i n c r e a s e i n t h e s h a r e o f I m p o r ts from t h e n o n - s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s (MH/MD) b y 5 p o i n t s y i e l d e d i n t h e i n i t i a l p e r i o d and t h e n e x t y e a r an i n c r e a s e o f n e t i n d u s t r i a l o u tp u t by 0.356, w h e re as i n t h e c a s e o f t h e p ro d u o e d and d i s t r i b u t e d HMP by 1.056 i n t h e i n i t i a l p e r i o d o n l y . T h is m eans a n I n o r e a s e o f p e r s o n a l c o n su m p tio n by 2 .1 Я , - t o t a l in v e s tm e n ts by 0.256, e x p o r t s by 1.4S6 and im p o r ts by I . 456. The m u l t i p l i e r s e f f e o t o f t h e im p u ls e im posed on t h e v a r i a b l e MN/MD r u n o f f v e r y q u ic k ly - s i n c e t h e seo o n d p e r i o d t h e y a r e d o s e t o z e r o ( c f . T a b . 7 ) . 3 .2 . I n v e s tm e n t and P r o d u c tio n I n t h e s u p p l y - o r i e n t e d m odel t h e in v e s tm e n t s e c t o r i s one o f t h e m ain b l o c k s . The i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e tw e e n I n v e s tm e n ts and m ain v a r i a b l e s o f t h e W3S79 m odel a r e g iv e n i n g r a p h 2 13.

G raph 2 C f . P i g . 3 .

M u l t i p l i e r s o f s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s w i t h r e s p e c t t o one p e r i o d im p u ls e i n c r e a s e by 3 3 .1 b i l l . z ł i n t h e c o n s t a n t o f e q u a t i o n e x p l a i n i n g in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s f o r b u i l d i n g s and c o n s t r u c t i m (JBUS) V a r i a b l e s U n i t s L a g a i n y e a r s 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 JBUS b i l l . * z ł 3 3 .1 0 9 3 1 0 .3 3 6 0 ' 0 .0 7 5 4 0 .0 2 3 8 0 .2 0 5 2 0 .0 6 5 3 0 .3 4 7 7 0 .1 1 1 4 0 .4 6 9 3 0 .1 5 0 9 0 .5 4 9 8 0 .1 7 7 0 0 .6 6 9 8 0 .2 0 6 8 X b i l l . % z ł 1 .3 8 3 7 0 .0 7 7 0 4 .3 4 5 8 0 .2 2 8 5 6 .9 4 3 3 0 .3 4 1 5 8 .5 0 3 1 0 .3 9 1 5 9 .4 5 2 8 0 .4 0 8 0 10.6331 . О .4 ЗО4 1 7 .5 0 8 3 0 .4 9 7 8 ZQ b i l l . % z ł 0 .8 5 8 8 0 .0 9 0 0 2 .5 6 8 8 0 .2 4 7 8 4 .0 8 2 4 0 .3 5 8 0 5 .1 9 9 9 0 .4 1 5 3 6 . 04Ю 0 .4 4 1 6 7 .0 8 3 2 0 .4 7 6 0 1 0 .9 1 7 3 0 .4 9 0 3 ZG b i l l . % z ł 1 .3 6 8 7 0.0771 4 .3 0 6 4 0 .2 2 9 2 6 .8 8 5 7 0 .3 4 2 8 8 .4 3 1 9 0 .3 9 2 9 9 .3 6 9 6 0 .4 0 9 3 1 0 .5 2 9 8 О.4 3 1 4 1 7 .3 4 3 9 0 .4 9 8 8 Y b i l l . % z ł 0 .2 8 5 0 0.0221 1 .0 1 6 5 0 .0 7 6 5 1 .8 5 3 0 0 .1 3 4 5 2 .4 7 2 0 0 .1 7 2 3 2 .8 4 0 2 0 .1 9 0 0 3 .1 5 4 6 0 .2 0 0 9 3.8131 0 .2 0 3 7 CZ b i l l . % z ł 0 .7 8 8 4 0 .0 7 2 3 2 .4 9 3 8 0 .2 1 6 7 4 .0 9 0 6 0 .3 3 1 3 5 .2 5 8 6 0 .3 9 6 3 6 .0 3 Ю 0 .4 2 3 5 6 .8 0 1 2 0 .4 4 5 7 1 0 .3 7 5 5 0 .4 8 1 7 JNET b i l l . % z ł 1 9 .8 2 4 0 4 .7 6 1 5 0 .6 1 6 4 0 .1 4 4 3 1.0 5 4 1 0 .2 3 6 7 1 .4 1 2 2 0 .3 0 2 8 1 .6 6 4 6 0 .3 4 0 2 1 .8 6 4 9 0 .3 6 2 9 2 .7 5 0 5 0 .4 0 8 5 M ar la b u b e ra , M ar la P o ta rg o w lc z , W ła dy sła w We lfe

J b i l l . s ł * 3 6 .6 9 5 9 5 .8 0 0 7 1.1411 0 .1 7 4 9 so b i l l . s ł * 0 .0 1 4 7 0 .0 6 6 3 0 .0 3 8 6 0 .1 6 7 4 ED b i l l . mł exchange % 0 .0 4 0 2 0.0 8 6 1 0 .1 2 7 5 0 .2 5 4 2 MD b i l l . s ł % 0 .0 3 9 0 0 .0 8 5 7 0 .1 2 4 4 0 .2 5 4 0 G b i l l , s ł J * - 2 0 .3 1 9 8 - 1 1 .1 4 8 9 - 1 .0 8 6 1 - 0 .6 0 9 3 DR b i l l . s ł % 1 .0 7 5 9 1 .2 4 6 8 2 .2 8 2 3 1 .8 6 8 5 1 .9 5 1 2 0 .2 8 4 4 0 .0 5 6 3 0 .2 3 0 4 0 .2 1 3 9 0.3896 0 .2 0 9 3 - 1 .3 8 3 3 - 1 .0 2 1 9 2 .1 2 4 4 1 .4 3 6 4 2 .6 1 4 1 0 .3 6 0 5 3 .0 8 1 4 0 .4 0 1 4 3.4521 0 .4 2 4 5 5 .0 9 1 3 0 .4 5 9 3 0 .0 7 1 8 0 .2 7 6 6 0 .0 8 3 9 0 .3 0 4 6 0 .1 0 4 2 0 .3 5 6 3 0 .1 6 3 7 0 .4 1 3 0 0.É 7 7 2 0 .4 6 1 1 0.3181 0 .4 8 5 3 0 .3 6 7 7 ' 0 .5 1 6 3 0 .5 7 7 9 0 .5 3 9 4 0 .2 7 1 4 0 .4 6 2 5 0 .3 1 1 3 0 .4 8 6 6 0 .3 5 9 3 0 .5 1 6 9_* 0 .5 6 4 6 0 .5 3 9 9 0 .2 5 2 2 0 .1 2 9 3 0 .5 7 9 0 0 .2 7 0 7 0 .4 1 3 9 0 .1 7 7 0 2 .8 8 9 0 0.7 1 1 1 1 .5 0 8 9 0 .9 5 8 3 1 .0 9 4 9 0 .6 7 5 8 1 .4 4 9 7 0 .8 6 6 7 1 .3 2 9 0 0 .5 4 4 6 M a lt lp ll a ra An a ly « 1« B aa ed on th e M 3S 79 d o d a l

o i s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s w ith r e s p e c t t o one p e r i o d im p u ls e i n c r e a s e bv -4 .9 3 b i l l , z ł i n t h e o o u s t a n t o f e q u a t i o n e x p l a i n i n g in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s f o r m a c h in e ry and e q u ip m e n t (JMUS) * V a r i a b l e s U n its L a g s i n y e a r s 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 JMUS b i l l . Z ł * 2 5 .1 6 7 4 8 .8 8 8 8 0 .7 2 6 0 0 .2 3 6 6 1.1841 0 .3 4 4 6 1 .5 3 1 5 0.3981 1.7 6 0 5 0 .4 1 0 9 1.9541 0 .4 1 1 9 2 .9 8 8 2 0 .3 0 5 8 X b i l l , z ł % 0 .9 4 9 1 0 .0 5 2 8 2 .9 8 1 4 0 .1 5 6 8 4 .7 6 3 3 0 .2 3 4 3 5 .8 3 3 8 0 .2 6 8 6 6 .4 8 5 4 0 .2 7 9 9 7 .2 9 4 8 0 .2 9 5 3 1 2 .0 0 6 8 0 .3 4 1 4 XQ b i l l , z ł % 0.5891 0 .0 6 1 7 1 .7 6 2 3 0 .1 7 0 0 2 .8 0 0 7 0 .2 4 5 6 3 .5 6 7 4 0 .2 8 4 9 4 .1 4 4 4 0 .3 0 3 0 4 .8 5 9 2 0 .3 2 6 6 7 .4 8 9 4 0 .3 3 6 4 XG b i l l , z ł % 0 .9 3 1 7 0 .0 5 2 9 2 .9 5 4 4 0 .1 5 7 3 4 .7 2 3 8 0 .2 3 5 2 5 .7 8 3 8 0 .2 6 9 5 6 .4 2 7 0 0 .2 8 0 7 7 .2 2 3 9 0 .2 9 5 9 1 1 .8 9 5 0 0.3421 Y b i l l , z ł % 0 .1 9 5 4 0.0 1 5 1 0 .6 9 7 6 0 .0 5 2 5 1 .2 7 1 9 0 .0 9 2 3 1 .6 9 6 9 0 .1 1 8 3 1 .9 4 9 9 0 .1 3 0 4 2 .1 6 5 9 0 .1 3 9 2 2 .6 1 6 3 0 .1 3 9 8 CX b i l l , z ł % 0 .5 4 0 8 0 .0 4 9 6 1 .7 1 0 8 0 .1 4 8 6 2 .8 0 6 2 0 .2 2 7 3 3 .6 0 7 7 0 .2 7 1 9 4 .1 3 7 5 0 .2 9 0 5 4 .6 6 5 8 0 .3 0 5 7 7 .1 1 7 6 0 .3 3 0 5 M a rl a b u b o ra , H ą rl a P o ta rg o w lc ł, W ła dy sła w Welf«

J z ł _{2 5 .1 7 4 4} 0 .7 8 2 8 % 3 .9 7 9 5 0 .1 2 0 0 JNET b i l l , s ł 1 3 .5 9 9 8 0 .4 2 2 9 % 3 .2 6 6 5 0 .0 9 9 0 SQ b i l l , s ł 0 .0 1 0 2 8 О.О2649 * 0 .0 4 6 3 0 .1 1 4 9 ED b i l l , s ł ex ch an g e 0 .0 2 7 5 9 0 .0 8 7 4 9 % 0 .0 5 9 1 0 .1 7 4 4 MD b i l l , s ł e x ohange 0 .0 2 6 7 6 0 .0 8 5 3 2 % 0 .0 5 8 8 0 .1 7 4 3 6 b i l l , s ł -1 3 .9 3 9 6 - 0 .7 4 5 2 * - 7 .6 4 8 3 -0 .4 1 8 1 DR b i l l , s ł 0.7381 1 .5 6 5 8 % 0 .8 5 5 2 1 .2 8 1 9 1 .3 3 8 6 O.1951 1 .7 9 3 4 0 .2 4 7 3 2 .1 1 3 9 0 .2 7 5 4 2 .3 6 8 2 0 .2 9 1 2 3 .4 9 2 7 O .315I O .72 3 I 0 .1 6 2 4 0 .9 6 8 8 0 .2 0 7 8 1 .1 4 2 0 0 .2 3 3 4 1 .2 7 9 4 0 .2 4 8 9 1 .8 8 6 8 0 .2 8 0 2 0 .0 3 8 6 2 0 .1 5 8 0 0 .0 4 8 8 2 0 .1 8 8 2 0 .0 5 7 0 8 0 .2 0 7 2 O.O7 I 45 0 .2 4 4 4 0 .1 1 2 7 6 0 .2 8 4 4 O .I 4676 0 .2 6 7 3 O .I 9OI5 O.3 1 6 3 0 .2 1 8 2 4 0 .3 3 2 9 0 .2 5 2 2 8 0 .3 5 4 2 • О.3 9 6 4 5 0 .3 7 0 0 О .14З6 О 0 .2 6 8 0 0 .1 8 6 1 5 0 .3 1 7 3 0 .2 1 3 5 6 0 .3 3 3 8 0 .2 3 6 5 0 0 .3 5 4 6 0 .3 8 7 3 3 0 .3 7 0 3 - 0 .2 6 2 9 - 0 .1 4 5 4 0 .1 7 2 0 0 .0 8 8 2 0 .3 9 6 3 0 .1 8 5 3 0 .2 8 4 3 0 .1 2 1 6 ' 1 .9 7 9 6 0 .4 8 7 3 1 .4 5 7 4 0 .9 8 5 4 1 .0 3 5 3 0 .6 5 7 5 0 .7 5 1 2 О.4 6 3 7 0 .9 9 4 4 0 .5 9 4 5 0 .9 1 0 9 0 .3 7 3 3 M u lt ip li e rs An alysis B as ed on th e V 3S 79 M o d el