E N E R G Y S E C U R IT Y IN P O L A N D IN C A S E O F T H E P O L IC Y O F E N E R G Y R E S O U R C E S D IV E R S IF IC A T IO N
Tomasz WISKULSKt Introduction
In c re a s e d e n e rg y e ffic ie n c y in th e p ro c e s s e s o f g e n e ra tio n , tra n s m is s io n a nd use o f ene rgy is one o f pillar of a sustainable ene rgy policy. It is reflected in national and in te rn a tio n a l law s. T o re g u la te re la te d to e n e rg y e ffic ie n c y in c lu d e :
- D ire ctive 2 0 0 6 /3 2/E C o f the E uropean P a rliam e nt and o f th e c o un cil o f 5 A pril 2006 on e n e rg y e n d -u s e e ffic ie n c y a nd e n e rg y s e rv ic e s a nd re p e a lin g C o u n c il D ire c tiv e 9 3 /7 6 /E E C ;
- S tra te g y „E u ro p ę 2 0 2 0 ” ;
- A sustainable E uropę fo r a better w orld - A E uropean U nion strategy fo r sustainable d e v e lo p m e n t;
- G re e n P a p e r fo r a E u ro p e a n U n io n E n e rg y P o licy;
- W h ite P a p e r. E u ro p e a n T ra n s p o rt P o lic y fo r 2 01 0 : T im e to D e cid e .
- P o la n d as a m e m b e r c o u n try o f th e E u ro p e a n U n io n p a rtic ip a te s in th e c re a tio n o f a co m m o n ene rgy policy and im plem ents EU legislation in th e country. B asic directions o f th e P o lish e n e rg y p o lic y are:
- lm p ro v in g e n e rg y e ffic ie n c y ;
- D iv e rs ify th e s tru c tu re o f e le c tric ity g e n e ra tio n ; - In c re a s e s e c u rity o f fu e l a nd e n e rg y ;
- T h e d e v e lo p m e n t o f e n e rg y fro m re n e w a b le s o u rce s;
- T h e d e v e lo p m e n t o f c o m p e titiv e m a rk e ts fo r fu e ls .
F or all these d ire ctio n s have been fo rm ula te d s p e cific aim s. T h e issue o f e ne rgy efficiency is treated as a priority. Its im provem ent is a priority in the E U 's e n e rg y policy.
T h e m ain o b je c tiv e s o f e n e rg y p o lic y in P o la n d sh all be a im in g a t m a in ta in in g n on - e n e rg y e c o n o m ic g ro w th a nd re d u c e e n e rg y c o n s u m p tio n in th e P o lis h e c o n o m y .
Polish Energetic Balance and GDP
P o la n d a fte r a c c e s s io n to th e EU in 2 0 0 4 w a s fo c u s e d on th e e x p lo ita tio n o f coal e ne rgy resources. But the EU plan to reduce C 0 2 em ission s - th e m ain p roduct o f burning c o a l - by 8 0 % to 2 0 5 0 fo rc e s on P o la n d th e im p le m e n ta tio n o f te c h n o lo g ic a l change in th e ene rgy sector fo r e conom ic grow th. T h ese ch an g es involve th e reduction of energy-intensive technologies and th e use o f environm entally friendly technologies, as e x e m p lifie d b y b io fu e ls and re n e w a b le e n e rg y . In th e a n a ly z e d p e rio d w e c a n se e s te a d y g ro w th in G D P in c u rre n t p ric e s (T a b le 1) re a c h in g up to 11% Y o Y in y e a rs 2 006/07. T h e low est grow th o f G D P at c u rre n t price s o ccurre d in y e a rs 2 00 8 /0 9 and a m o u n te d to 5 .3 % . T h e g ro w th in th e y e a rs 2 0 0 4 -2 0 0 9 w a s as high a s 4 5 .3 % w h ich e nsured P oland se con d to S lova kia am ong EU m e m b e r states. H ow ever, G D P grow th at constant prices reached a m axim um during years 2 00 6 /0 7 - 6 .8 % , a t le a s t in y e a rs 200 8 /0 9 - 1.6% . D uring ye a rs 2 00 4 -2 0 10 G D P grow th w a s e stim a te d at 3 0.2% g iving P oland th e second place a m o n g EU countries, as in th e ca se o f G D P at c u rre n t prices.
W ith G D P grow th in d e v e lo p in g countries is co nn e cted th e incre ase e m issio n o f p ollutants into th e atm osp h ere , o ften conn e cted to the d e m a n d fo r e n e rg y resources.
A n a ly z in g c h a n g e s in c o n s u m p tio n o f LP G b y th e a u to m o tiv e in d u s try in P o la n d can be n o te d c le a rly v is ib le tw o p e rio d s . T h e firs t p e rio d o f g ro w th o c c u rre d
* Department of Regional Development Geography, Institute of Geography UG, e-mail: geotw@univ.gda.pl
in y e a rs 2 0 0 4 -2 0 0 7 , a nd it a m o u n te d to a lm o s t 9 % . T h e n , a s a re s u lt o f tre n d s a nd c h a n g e s ta k in g p la c e in th e g lo b a l e c o n o m y w e ca n s e e a s lig h t d e c lin e in v o lu m e in 2 0 0 9 b y 6 .2 % c o m p a re d to 2 00 7 . W e can se e s o m e kind o f c o n v e rg e n c e w ith th e in c re a s e in G D P , a nd it’s s lo w in g d o w n s iń c e 2 0 0 8 .
Table 1. Growth of GDP at current prices and constant prices in years 2004-2010 in Poland
Growth in current prices Growth in constant prices Previousyear= 100
2004 - 105,3
2005 106,4 103,6
2006 107,8 106,2
2007 111,0 106,8
2008 108,4 105,1
2009 105,3 101,6
2010 103,8
2009- 2010 (2004=100) 145,3 130,2
Source: own elaboration based on "Concise statistical yearbook of Poland”, 2006-2011
In th e a n a ly z e d p e rio d w e can a ls o see an in c re a s e in oil c o n s u m p tio n in 2 0 0 8 c o m p a re d w ith 2 0 0 4 b y 1 6.4% a nd th e n d e c lin e in 2 0 0 9 b y 3 ,6 % to 2 0 2 8 2 thousand o f tons. A significant increase in d em and can be observed in th e consum ption o f p ro d u c ts re s u ltin g fro m re fin in g c ru d e oil. T h e la rg e s t in c re a s e ca n be o b s e rv e d in y e a rs 2 0 0 5 /0 6 , w h e n it a m o u n te d to 1 0.6% . T h ro u g h o u t s tu d ie d p e rio d ca n be o b s e rv e d in c re a s e in th e c o n s u m p tio n o f p e tro le u m p ro d u c ts , b u t in 2 0 0 9 h a s se en a s ig n ific a n t in h ib itio n o f g ro w th o f c o n s u m p tio n to 1.3% .
S ugg e sted reduction of C 0 2 em issions associated w ith coal m ining restriction in P o lis h p o w e r p la n ts , a nd th u s , re d u c in g its o u tp u t. O v e r th e y e a rs 2 0 0 4 -2 0 0 9 w e can noted a d e cre ase in coal consum ption in the Polish econ o m y fro m the level of 144 m illion of tons to a lm o st 133 m illion of tons, it is 7,7% (T able 2). T h is w a s ca u se d by:
- d e c lin e in th e p ro fita b ility o f co a l m in in g ; - d e c lin e in ste e l p ro d u c tio n ;
- in c re a s e th e c o s t o f s to ra g e o f coal;
- s a la ry in c re a s e s - c o n s e q u e n tly re d u c in g th e n u m b e r o f e m p lo y e e s . Table 2. Total consumption and energy content in years 2004-2009 in Poland
LPG Crude
Oil Oil
Products Coal
& Coke Lpg Crude Oil Oil
Products Coal And
Coke Energy
Total
thous. oftonnes TJ
2004 2,232 18,068 10,946 143,949 103,788,0 767,810.6 479,620.0 2,437,317.6 3,788,536 2005 2,388 18,191 11,470 142,027 111,042,0 773,037.5 502,057.7 2,370,390.5 3,756,528 2006 2,407 20,050 12,685 146,929 111,925,5 852,036.9 554,711.8 2,500,590.7 4,019,265 2007 2,432 20,024 13,674 130 586 113,088,0 850,932.0 597,431.5 2,096,760.7 3,658,212 2008 2,391 21,036 14,857 142 318 111,181,5 893,937.5 648,982.7 2,416,066.2 4,070,168 2009 2,281 20,282 15,052 132 814 106,066,5 861,895.8 657,137.8 2,218,868.0 3,843,968
Source: own elaboration based on “Energy Statistics”, 2004-2009
B y a n a ly z in g u sed e n e rg e tic o f ra w m a te ria ls and th e ir p ro d u c ts w e ca n se e v e ry little in c re a s e in used e n e rg y . T h e la rg e s t in c re a s e w e ca n s e e in 2 0 0 8 and it
a m o u n te d to 1 1.3% Y o Y in th e s c a lę . B ut c o m p a rin g 2 0 0 9 to 2 0 0 4 w e ca n se e an in c re a s e o f o n ly 1.5% . T h is is an in c re a s e d is p ro p o rtio n a te ly Io w in re la tio n to G D P in c o n s ta n t p ric e s fo r th e s a m e p e rio d w h ic h to o k 2 5 .5 % .
Sources of Energy Raw Materials in Poland
A n a ly z in g th e s o u rc e o f e n e rg y re s o u rc e s in P o la n d s h o u ld be c o n s id e re d tw o possibilities. O w n production and im ports. C rude oil production in P oland is around th e is la n d o f W o lin , on th e n o rth e rn s h e lf o f R o z e w ie C a p e , in P o d k a rp a c k ie re g io n , in B a rn ó w o a nd n e a r G o rz o w W ie lk o p o ls k i (F ig. 1.). C ru d e o il p ro d u c tio n in P o la n d c o v e rs o n ly 3 .4 % (T a b le 3) o f th e to ta l d e m a n d fo r th is ra w m a te ria ł. B e ca u s e o f it P o la n d is fo rc e d to im p o rt th is m a te ria ł fro m a b ro a d , m a in ly fro m R u s s ia a n d s m a li p a rt fro m th e P e rs ia n G u lf re g io n .
Fig. 1. Location of energy resources in Poland
Source: own eleboration.
T h e m o s t w id e ly -u s e d p re s e n t e n e rg y s o u rc e in P o lish e c o n o m y is c o a l, a nd v a rio u s v a ria tio n s th e re o f. T h e P o lish e c o n o m y re m a in s in d e p e n d e n t o f th e s u p p ly o f ra w m a te ria ls to in d u s tria l p la n ts a nd co a l p la n ts w h ic h a re th e m a in p ro v id e rs o f electricity. H ow ever, rising production costs in th e case o f d eep m ining and com petitive p ric e o f c o a l fro m o p e n c a s t m in e s in S o u th A fric a a n d A u s tra lia , fo rc in g th e P o lish in d u s try to in c re a s in g im p o rts o f ra w m a te ria ls w h ile re d u c in g its e x p o rts .
Table 3. Own production of primary raw materials in 2004-2009 in Poland
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
thous. oftonnes
Crude Oil 886 848 796 721 755 687
Coal & Coke 161.284 159.540 156.065 145.850 144.013 135.172 Source: own elaboration based on “Energy Statistics”, 2004-2009
L iq u id g a s as a p ro d u c t o f oil re fin in g is c o n s u m e d a s fu e l fo r a u to m o b ile s . In the a n a lyze d period w e can se e th a t th e re w a s a te m p o ra ry in cre ase in ra w m a te ria ł
c o n s u m p tio n b y 2 0 0 7 (T a b le 4). W ith th e in c re a s e in c o n s u m p tio n w e ca n s e e an in c re a s e in its im p o rts . A b o u t 9 0% o f L P G is im p o rte d p ro d u c t. F ro m 2 0 0 4 to 2 0 0 6 th e re w a s an in c re a s e in im p o rts by sea, fo llo w e d b y a d e c lin e in th e im p o rt o f th is k in d o f tra n s p o rt (F ig . 2).
T h e m a in s o u rc e s o f im p o rt o f th is ra w m a te ria ł are:
■ b y se a th ro u g h th e L P G te rm in a l in G d a ń s k fro m R u s s ia ;
■ b y se a th ro u g h th e P e tro lin v e s t te rm in a l in G d y n ia fro m L ith u a n ia ;
■ o v e rla n d fro m th e C z e c h R e p u b lic .
A s m a li a m o u n t o f L P G p ro d u c e d in P o la n d c o m e s fro m an o il re fin e ry in G d a ń s k , P ło ck, C z e c h o w ic e -D z ie d z ic e and T rz e b in ia .
Table 4.
Consumption, total imports and by sea of raw materials and related products in years 2004-2009 in Poland
LPG Crude Oil Oil Products Coal & Coke
Consump. Import
Consump Import
Consump Import
Consump Import
Total By Sea Total By Sea Total By Sea Total By Sea
thous. oftonnes
2004 2.232 1.989 227 18.068 17.316 293 10.946 2.565 384 143.949 2.28 377 2005 2.388 2.140 353 18.191 17.912 479 11.470 3.033 651 142.027 3.72 539 2006 2.407 2.168 402 20.050 19.813 960 12.685 3.017 1.727 146.929 5.76 746 2007 2.432 2.221 394 20.024 20.885 1.570 13.674 3.649 2.450 130.586 5.32 1.396 2008 2.391 2.124 329 21.036 20.787 2.679 14.857 2.913 2.221 142.318 10.51 4.779 2009 2.281 2.015 156 20.282 20.098 2.853 15.052 2.641 2.370 132.814 10.23 3.532
Source: own elaboration based on "Energy Statistics”, 2004-2009
C ru d e oil as th e m ain source of liquid fu e ls in Poland is m ore th a n 99% im ported.
H ow ever, only a sm ali part goe s to P oland by sea. In 2004 it w a s 1.7% w ith an increase to 1 4 .2 % in 2 0 0 9 . T h is la rg e s h a re o f im p o rts by la n d is c a u s e d b y a n o p e n in 1964 thread northern oil pipeline "Friendship" transporting crude oil from R ussia's T a ta rsta n by P o la n d to L e ip z ig in G e rm a n y . T h e c o n s tru c tio n o f th is p ip e lin e w a s th e p rim a ry reason fo r the c o n stru ctio n o f P oland's larg est oil refin e ry in P łock n ea r w h ich passe s th e sa id p ip e lin e . A n o th e r re a s o n fo r th is lo c a tio n w a s th e lo c a tio n o f th e to w n on th e V is tu la R iv e r - a s o u rc e o f w a te r fo r in d u s tria l p u rp o s e s . T ra n s p o rta tio n b y sea ta k e s p la c e m a in ly fro m P rim o rs k in R u ssia by N a fto p o rt in G d a ń s k .
D e s p ite th e in c re a s e in c o n s u m p tio n o f p ro d u c ts d e riv e d fro m re fin in g c ru d e oil w e can see a g en e ra ł d ec re a s e in im p o rts o f the se p rod ucts fro m 2 3,4% in 2 004 to 17,5% in 2009 w h ile th e o vera ll vo lu m e grow th o f im ports by sea fro m a lm o st 15% o f total o f im ports in ye ar 2004 to alm ost 90% of the volum e of im ports in 2009. T his w a s due to increased capacity in Polish refineries, fo r exam ple, through such p rogram s as "10 + ”1.
A n a ly z in g th e s itu a tio n in th e co a l m a rk e t d u rin g th e p e rio d ca n w e n o te d a d ec re a s e in th e co n s u m p tio n by m ore than 7.7% (11 m illion o f tons) w ith an incre ase in th e sh are o f coal im ported fro m 1.6% in 2 00 4 to 8.15% in 2009. A t th e s a m e tim e w as in c re a s e d th e s h a re o f co a l im p o rte d by se a fro m 1 6.2% in 2 0 0 4 to 3 2 .6 % in 2009.
' The 10+ Programme is a strategie irwestment task performed by Grapę LOTOS within the development of the refinery in Gdańsk. In terms of scalę and value, it is one of the largest projeets im plem ented in the Polish econom y until 2010.
The m ain directions o f coal im ports by land are the Russian Federation and Ukrainę. C o a l is im p o rtin g b y se a fro m th e U S A a nd S o uth A frica. T h is State o f a ffa irs is d u e to th e decline in profitability o f production in P oland and dum ped used by o u r business partners around th e w orld. P oland, d e sp ite th e firs t place on th e list o f coal p rod uce rs in th e EU and s e c o n d p la c e in E u ro p ę a fte r R u ssia has b e c o m e fro m e x p o rte r in a s h o rt tim e to th e im p o rte r.
Fig. 2.
Consumption, total imports and by sea of raw materials and related products in years 2004-2009 in Poland
i consumption o total import ■ import by sea l consumption h total import ■ import by se;
I consumption □ total import l import by sea i consumption a total import I import by sea
Source: own elaboration based on table 4.
thous. of
O il p ro d u cts thous. of
! 60000j2Q D S S _ C o al and c o ke
B y analyzing ene rgy exports se ctor it should be noted to th e dom ina n ce o f the export v o lu m e o f LP G b y sea (T a b le 5) o v e r th e v o lu m e o f e x p o rt o f LP G p ro d u ce d in P o la n d (T a b le 6). L ik e th e o th e r tw o g ro u p s o f liq u id ra w m a te ria ls th is is d u e to th e re -e x p o rt c h a ra c te r o f th e ir in te rn a tio n a l tra d e .
Fuels, w h ich P oland is a re -e xp orte r m ainly, co m e fro m the R ussian F ederation.
T h e y a re tra n s p o rte d m a in ly b y th e P o lis h p a rt o f p ip e lin e "F rie n d s h ip " to N a fto p o rt in G d a ńsk w h e re by sea g o e s to th e EU m arkets. S uch sign ifica n t ch a n g e s in th e size o f oil exports by sea are th e result o f th e geopolitical situation in Central E uropę. Russia w a n ting to w ean transport raw m aterials to W e ste rn Europę through Poland, B elarus and U krainę. R ussia decided to start building th e Nord S tream pipeline u n d e rth e Baltic Sea.
Table 5. Exports of of energy resources and related products by sea
LPG Crude Oil Oil Products Coal & Coke thous. oftonnes
2004 32 4.038 414 11.348
2005 197 8.724 1.653 12.792
2006 166 8.813 2.144 8.602
2007 154 6.132 2.610 4.786
2008 155 4.215 2.452 2.419
2009 3 4.029 1.934 4.612
Source: own elaboration based on “Energy Statistics”, 2004-2009
It is e s tim a te d th a t th is o p e ra tio n ca n re d u c e th e c o s t o f tra n s p o rtin g c ru d e o il, a n d c o n s e q u e n tly re d u c e th e p ric e o f th e ra w m a te ria ł. O n th e o th e r h and, th e th re a t o f re s tric tin g a c c e s s to oil in C e n tra l E u ro p ę c re a te s a k in d o f to o l to c o n d u c t fo re ig n p o licy . In re c e n t y e a rs s e v e ra l tim e s a n n o u n c e d th e c e s s a tio n o f oil tra n s it th ro u g h N a fto p o rt in G d a ń s k . H o w e v e r, th is plan n e v e r c a m e fu lly in to fo rc e . A fte r th e te m p o ra ry s to p p a g e s in tra n s it R u ssia n o il re a c h in g b a c k to th e p o rt o f G d a ń s k .
Table 6. Exports of raw materials and related products of domestic origin
LPG Crude Oil Oil Products Coal & Coke thous. oftonnes
2004 14 138 705 19.711
2005 25 216 1.017 19.377
2006 35 282 704 16.735
2007 25 288 515 11.900
2008 38 247 381 8.462
2009 18 226 456 8.464
Source: own elaboration based on “ Energy Statistics”, 2004-2009
D iffere n tly loo ks th e situ atio n in th e ca se o f e xpo rt o f coal. T h e m ain so urce o f export o f ra w m ateriał is d om e stic production. M ay reflect th e fa c t th a t despite the rich re s o u rc e s o f th is ra w m a te ria ł in a s h o rt tim e P o la n d b e c a m e a n e tto im p o rte r. T h is is caused by reducing th e profitability of production, com petitive prices on w o rld m arkets and d ive rsifie d calories. F o r individual b usiness v e n tu re s are nee d ed s p e c ific typ e s o f m a te ria ł, n ot a v a ila b le in P o la n d .
Prospects for Energy Security
In o rd e r to e n s u re n atio n al e n e rg y se c u rity b e c o m e s n e c e s s a ry d iv e rs ific a tio n o f sources o f energy raw m aterials. F or this purpose it becom es nece ssary to im plem ent th e in ve s tm e n t in infrastructure and tra nsp o rt tra nssh ipm e nt. T h e m o st im p o rta n t such an in v e s tm e n t fo r s e v e ra l y e a rs w a s th e c o n s tru c tio n o f a g a s p o rt in Ś w in o u jś c ie . Im p le m e n ta tio n o f th is p la n w o u ld a llo w fo r d iv e rs ific a tio n o f s o u rc e s o f gas. In 2010 m ost o f th e g a s c a m e directly o r indirectly from the Russian Federation. Ś w inoujście g as te rm in a l co nstru ctio n w ould a llo w ch an g in g th e dire ction o f im p o rts o f this ra w m ateriał in 5 0 % on N o rw a y a nd th e M id d le E ast.
C o n d u c te d fo r m a n y y e a rs p re p a ra to ry w o rk in v o lv in g th e c re a tio n o f "R e p o rt on th e e n v iro n m e n ta l im p a c t, th e p ro je c t in v o lv in g th e c o n s tru c tio n o f th e w a te rfro n t a t th e e x te rn a lp o rt o f Ś w in o u jś c ie " and th e p re p a ra tio n o f d e ta ile d in v e s tm e n t pla n
w h ic h w a s fin a lly c o m p le te d in 2 0 0 9 . P u rs u a n t to th e re s o lu tio n o f th e C o u n c il o f M in is te rs o f 19 A u g u s t 2 00 8 , c o n s tru c tio n o f g a s te rm in a l w a s re c o g n iz e d a s a strategie inve stm e nt fo r Polish interests. In 2 010 it w as th e first e xecution o f construction w o rk, w h ic h s h o u ld be c o m p le te d in 2 01 4 . O n th e w a y to u se th e fu li c a p a c ity g a s te rm in a l s ta y e d c o n s tru c tio n o f th e N o rd S tre a m p ip e lin e . A t th e e n d o f 2 0 1 0 p la c e d the first stream . Its loca tion has ca use d sh a llo w track a pp roa ch to th e n ew ly built port to 13 m w ith in itia l p la n s fo r a p o s s ib le a p p ro a c h , a s s u m in g th e p o rt o f v e s s e ls w ith a m axim um draft o f 15 m. A t th e beginning the draft o f ships w a s e xpe cte d fro m Q a ta r gas at 14.3 m . T h is co urse o f th e situation caused a lot o f co nfusion a m o n g politicians a nd e x p e rts w h o m is s e d tim e fo r ra isin g o b je c tio n s to th e R u s s ia n -G e rm a n p ro je c t.
Nord S tre a m c o n so rtiu m re sp o nsib le fo r the co nstru ctio n pip e line d uring th e d iscu ssio n sa id th a t a t th is s ta g e o f th e p ro je c t is u n e c o n o m ic tra c k th e c o u rs e o f a d v a n c in g th e p ip e lin e and la y in g it o v e r a g a in .
A c h a n c e fo r a p ro p e r p ro c e s s o f d iv e rs ific a tio n o f g a s is h a n d lin g te rm in a ls in G dańsk. P o w e r h a n d le r o f th e c u rre n t te rm in a l is 4 00 to n s/h w ith a ca p a c ity o f 13.2 th o usa n d o f tons. D uring o pe ratio n o f the port w a s sh ow n th e idea o f b uilding a second gas port in G dańsk. C o n sen t fo r its construction w a s issued in 2008. H ow ever, p roblem s fro m in v e s tm e n t in fin a n c in g ca u s e d p o s tp o n e m e n t o f its im p le m e n ta tio n . S a m e in v e s tm e n t w o u ld h a v e to re ly on th e c o n s tru c tio n o f g a s ta n k s w ith a c a p a c ity o f 15.6 th o u sa n d o f m 3 w ith tra n ssh ip m e n t infrastructure. T h is w o u ld be th e firs t P olish m ob ile gas port loca te d on th e sea. T h is w o u ld reduce th e co st o f its co nstru ctio n and m a in te n a n ce o f th e level o f risk o f haza rdo u s s u b sta n ce s at th e e x te rn a lp o rt proper. A g re a t o p p o rtu n ity fo r th e p ro p e r d iv e rs ific a tio n o f g a s s o u rc e s a re in v e s tm e n ts in exploration and production of shale gas. A ccord ing to prelim inary re search and analysis found th a t it o ccu rs o v e r th e e ntire length o f th e co u n try e astw a rds o f a line T e isse yre - T o rn q u ist and its re so u rce s a m o u n t to 5.3 trillion o f m o f gas. A t c u rre n t c o n su m p tio n o f P o lis h s u ffic e it to 3 0 0 y e a rs o f o p e ra tio n . A s ig n ific a n t im p e tu s to w a rd s th e u se o f LPG inhibition is p roposed by th e EU excise ta x increase. T h e p rop ose d in cre ase in its v a lu e fro m $ 1 2 5 /to n to $ 5 0 0 /to n o f lea d m a y in c re a s e th e fin a ł p ric e to o v e r 4 P LN p e r lite r. B ut th e c h a n c e s o f in tro d u c in g su ch in e re a s e s se e m u n re a lis tic in th e c u rre n t e c o n o m ic s itu a tio n as it w o u ld le a d to h a ltin g e c o n o m ic g ro w th .
A s ig n ific a n t p ro b le m o f th e P o lish e n e rg y s e c u rity is to in c re a s e n etto im p o rts coal and coke. W ith in several ye a rs fro m strong le a d e rsh ip in th e e x p o rt o f this e n e rg y ra w m a te ria ł w e h a v e b e c o m e th e im p o rte r. T h is w a s c a u s e d b y in c re a s e d v a ria b le c o sts a s s o c ia te d w ith a c c e s s to lo w e r and lo w e r la y e rs o f co a l a n d p ric e s c h a rg e d by m a jo r e xpo rting countries. In addition, th e d eclin e in profita b ility o f th e Polish coal m in in g c o a l p ric e s d ro p s a p p e a ls . T h e g lo b a l e c o n o m ic c ris is a d v e rs e ly a ffe c te d th e co a l u sed in th e s tru c tu re o f e n e rg y p ro d u c tio n . T h e re s u lt w a s to in c re a s e th e stocks o f coal in p ow er stations and ports o f im port. H ow ever, a ccording to Coal E nergy O u tlo o k 2 0 0 8 1 w o rld co a l c o n s u m p tio n o v e r th e n e x t 20 y e a rs w ill g ro w m u c h fa s te r than c o n s u m p tio n o f o th e r e ne rgy re sources. T h e re is ta lk o f d o u b ling coal p roduction in C hina and India. T h e result o f th e policy, P oland lost its p rom ine n t position in w orld m a rk e ts th a t tra d e ra w m a te ria ł. In a d d itio n th e in c re a s e in ra w m a te ria ł p ric e s m a y d e c id e to in tro d u c e e x c is e d u ty at th e b e g in n in g o f 2 01 2 . F o r h a lf a y e a r b e fo re its in tro d u c tio n is n ot y e t kn o w n w h e th e r it w ill be c o v e re d b y p ro d u c e rs o r c o n s u m e rs . W h e n th is o b lig a tio n w ill fa li on p ro d u c e rs , th e p ric e o f ra w m a te ria ls w ill in c re a s e , le a d in g to an in c re a s e in n e tto im p o rts .
Polish alternative to th e rising im ports and a decline in coal production is planned fro m th e 7 0 s o f th e tw e n tie th c e n tu ry th e c o n s tru c tio n o f n u c le a r p o w e r p la n t. T h is
1 Coal M arket Outlook 2008. W orld Energy Outlook 2008
irw e s tm e n t a p p e a rs to be e s s e n tia l to e n s u re c o n tin u ity in th e s u p p ly o f e le c tric ity fo r th e e c o n o m y and co nsu m ers. T h e inve stm e nt initially planned to ca rry o ut n e a r the Ż a rn o w ie c k ie L a k e w a s a b a n d o n e d in 1992. T h is w a s a c o n s e q u e n c e o f s o c io - e c o n o m ic tra n s fo rm a tio n s in P o la nd . H o w e v e r, th is idea w a s re v iv e d a g a in in 2 00 5 , a nd in 2 0 1 0 Ż a rn o w ie c w o n a ra n k in g o f lo c a tio n fo r th e c o n s tru c tio n o f n e w n u c le a r p o w e r p la n t. It is p la n n e d th a t it w ill be la u n c h e d in 2 0 2 0 . T h is in v e s tm e n t w ill s a tis fy 1 3.2% o f e le c tric ity d e m a n d in P o la n d .
P o lish th re a t to e n e rg y s e c u rity is a ls o th e c o n s tru c tio n o f th e B T S -2 . Its im p le m e n ta tio n w ill re su lt in re d u c tio n o r c o m p le te in h ib itio n o f tra n s it o f oil th ro u g h B e la ru s and P o la n d . T h is m a y re su lt in fo rc in g P o la n d to im p o rt oil fro m G e rm a n y , w h ic h m a y a ffe c t th e g ro w th o f its price. S o b e c o m e s n e c e s s a ry to d iv e rs ify s o u rc e s o f o b ta in in g th e ra w m a te ria ł. A c h a n c e to m e e t th is o b je c tiv e m a y be oil im p o rts fro m K a zakhstan. T h a t w ill be transported th rou g h th e O d e s s a -B ro d y -G d a ń s k pipeline.
T h is w o u ld m a in ta in th e role o f N aftoport in G dańsk and th e d ive rsifica tio n o f so urce s o f p ro c u re m e n t. T h e issu e o f im p o rts c ru d e o il fro m P e rs ia n G u lf re g io n is s u rre a l.
T h e co m p o s itio n o f crude oil fro m that part o f the w orld has a d iffe re n t sulphation, so fo r its re fin in g w o u ld be n e e d e d th e te c h n o lo g ic a l c h a n g e in th e P o lish re fin e rie s .
Literature:
1. Concise statistical yearbook of Poland 2. Energy Statistics
3. Coal M arket Outlook 2008. W orld Energy Outlook 2008
