Tom 24 2008 Zeszyt 4/3
WIES£AW KOZIO£*, PAWE£ KAWALEC*, ALEKSANDER KABZIÑSKI**
Production of aggregates in European Union
Introduction
Aggregates are one of the basic materials used by man kind. Especially in civil engine- ering and road constructions aggregates play a key role. What is very crucial not only the best quality aggregates are applied (as usual crushed rocks which have very good physical and mechanical parameters) but also aggregates with seemingly lower value (sands, gravels and worst crushed rocks).
Taking into account variable European countries it is possible to notice that economical growth causes increase of demands on aggregates. It is clearly visible in the countries which entered EU in 2004. Also considering the whole Union there have been noticed significant growth of aggregates production.
1. Production of natural aggregates in European Union
It is estimated that production of aggregates in Europe is about 3.5 billion tons annually [4], majority of which is produced in European Union. According to data acquired in particular countries and supplemented with data published by British Geological Survey (BGS) [3] production of aggregates in European Union was 2,96 billion tons in 2006 (including Bulgaria and Romania which actually weren’t members of EU) [7, 9–10].
From a longer time the constant 3–4% increase of aggregates production in EU was ob- served (Fig. 1).
** Department of Open Pit Mining, Faculty of Mining and Geoengineering, AGH-UST Kraków.
** Polish Association of Employers Aggregates Producers.
Norway was also included in the picture (Fig. 1) even is not an EU member, but is very important for aggregates economy of the Union. The growing tendency is present in almost whole analyzed period excluding a short term decrease of production in 2001 and 2002.
The difference in amount of production between so called EU 15 and new member countries is very clear. The total production of 11 new EU countries (including Romania and Bulgaria, without Malta) is only 12% of aggregates production in EU (year 2005), while population of this countries is over 15% of EU citizens, and area is 17% of EU.
Share of particular countries in aggregates production of EU is shown in Figure 2.
Fig. 1. Production of natural aggregates in UE in 1995–2006 Rys. 1. Produkcja kruszywa naturalnego w UE w latach 1995–2006
Fig. 2. Share of particular countries in aggregates production of European Union in 2006 Rys. 2. Udzia³ poszczególnych krajów w produkcji kruszywa w Unii Europejskiej w 2006 r.
Currently the hugest aggregates producer in European Union is Spain, where 415 million tons of aggregates were produced in 2006. In general, on the field of aggregates production leading countries are the biggest ones: Germany, Spain, France, and Italy, which total area is equal of 45% of EU area (population is 62%) produce together 1,7 billion tons of aggregates what is 58% of EU production. The least production is in small countries which joined EU in 2004 and in Romania. To compare amount of aggregates production in particular production per capita was applied, what was presented in the Figure 3.
When production per capita is compared a dominative position of fast economically developing Ireland is noticeable. Production of aggregates in this country is as many as 37 tons per person, and has been dynamically growing from some years (in 2005 was 33 tons/person and in 2004 – 29.5 tons/person).
Value of the indicator for Poland is comparatively low 4.0 tons/person.
In most of the countries production of aggregates is almost equal or equal to aggregates consumption. It is caused by local importance of those materials, and simultaneously inconsiderable importance of foreign trade in aggregates economy of particular countries and EU as an entirety.
There are two main exceptions from the rule: the Netherlands and Norway. In the Netherlands, according to high population density and lack of deposits for crushed rocks production, huge part of demand is covered by import. On the other hand, Norway exports large part of its aggregates production.
European Aggregates Association (Union Europeenne des Producteurs de Granulats – UEPG) publishes data according to aggregates production in member countries which are
Fig. 3. Production of natural aggregates per capita in EU countries Rys. 3. Produkcja naturalnego kruszywa per capita w krajach UE
slightly different than presented above. In countries like Austria, Germany or Italy pro- duction of aggregates after UEPG is almost twice higher than published by BGS and local sources. UEPG includes to the calculation production from non registered deposits (for example in Germany so called “free for mining deposits” or illegal exploitation what is a reason of mentioned differences. Data published by UEPG are presented in Table 1.
TABLE 1 Aggregates industry in UEPG member countries
TABELA 1 Przemys³ kruszyw w krajach cz³onkowskich UEPG
Country Companies Sites Employees
Production [Million ton]
Sand &
Gravel Crushed
rock
Marine Aggregates
Recycled Aggregates
Manufac- tured Aggregates
Total
Austria 950 1260 21400 66.0 32.0 0.0 3.5 3.0 104.5
Belgium 184 253 15919 10.1 55.5 3.5 13.0 1.3 83.4
Croatia 500 330 7000 6.2 21.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.0
Czech Republic 208 490 3368 27.1 41.5 0.0 3.8 0.3 72.7
Denmark 350 400 3 000 58.0 0.3 13.6 72
Finland 400 3550 3000 54.0 46.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 100.5
France 1 680 2700 17300 167.0 233.0 7.0 14.0 9.0 430.0
Germany 1 800 5396 92625 277.0 270.0 0.4 48.0 30.0 625.4
Ireland 250 450 5 100 54.0 79.0 1.0 0.0 134
Italy 1 700 2360 24000 210.0 135.0 0.0 5.5 3.0 354.0
Netherlands 60–70 40–45 400 44.5 50.0 25.0 119.5
Norway 1 500 2000 1839 13.4 45.0 0.0 58.4
Poland 2 200 2550 53600 115.0 43.0 8.0 3.0 169.0
Portugal 331 379 4 560 97.5 0.0 97.5
Romania 440 11600 15.5 6.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 23.0
Slovakia 175 213 3700 10.0 16.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 27.0
Spain 1 600 1950 86000 170.0 314.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 485.5
Sweden 120 2410 3500 23.0 62.0 0.0 1.8 0.2 87.0
Switzerland 350 480 3200 50.0 5.7 0.0 5.7 – 61.4
Turkey 770 770 20240 24.0 260.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 284.0
United Kingdom 350 1300 46000 68.0 123.0 13.0 58.0 12.0 274.0
Total 15 418 29 681 427 351 1560.27 1789.8 87.5 190.0 63.1 3 690.7
In 24 UEPG member countries operate 15.4 thousand firms which exploit almost 20 thousand sites, in which 427 thousand workers are employed. Total production of those sites is 3690 million tons (what is more than official statistics for whole Europe).
UEPG statistics shows, that just in 16 EU countries (UEPG members) operate 12 thousand aggregates mining companies, which exploit 26 thousand sites. In those countries, directly in production of aggregates there are almost 400 thousand persons hired.
For further prospects analyses data collected directly in particular countries and sup- plemented with data from BGS were applied – according to their long-terms and accordance.
2. Prospect of natural aggregates production development in EU
On the basis of aggregates production trends observation in EU and particular countries it is possible to notice certain tendencies, which allows predicting production of aggregates in the future. Additionally there were noticed that exist statistically significant dependences between production and consumption of aggregates and chosen economical growth in- dicators (mainly GDP) as well as population or population density. According to that fact prospects of aggregates production were prepared using traditional methods of analyses and neural networks [6].
The dependency is also visible for whole EU (Fig. 4). In 2000, when production of aggregates decreased, ratio of GDP increase felt down simultaneously.
Fig. 4. GDP and production of aggregates in European Union in 1995–2006 Rys. 4. PKB i produkcja kruszywa w Unii Europejskiej w latach 1995–2006
Analyzing aggregates productions’ trends for whole European Union, statistically sig- nificant correlation coefficient has been identified for this production development. Linear correlation coefficients for analyzed dependences are over 0.9. This tendency was tested as significant both for production and production per capita.
Models in Figure 5 regard to linear dependences, but analyses included also other models (exponential, logarithmic, logistic, polynomial and other), in which the most interesting are exponential and second power function models.
Fig. 5. Development trends of natural aggregates production per capita and dependences between aggregates production per capita and GDP per capita (constant 1990 prices)
Rys. 5. Trendy rozwojowe produkcji naturalnego kruszywa per capita i zale¿noœci pomiêdzy produkcj¹ kruszywa per capita i PKB per capita (sta³e ceny 1990 r.)
Fig. 6. Prospect of aggregates production in EU up to 2014 Rys. 6. Perspektywy produkcji kruszywa w UE do roku 2014
After the analyses of average error of prospected values to real values results for number of models were rejected. The results are shown in the Figure. 6.
In presented analyses Bulgaria and Romania were excluded according to low reliability of aggregates production data in those counties. On the other hand it was one of the reasons why as the most probable the maximum (most optimistic) prognosis has been chosen.
The prognosis shown estimates an annual growth of aggregates production on the level of 2.0% per year. Production of aggregates in countries which have been taken into account should reach 3 billion tons per year no later than in 2009. Estimations of Polish Association of Employers Aggregates Producers estimate that the growth can be even higher up to 4.5%
yearly according to huge demand for aggregates in new EU member countries.
3. Production prognosis in selected countries
Due to large number of local indicators which are characteristics for particular countries it is necessary to evaluate each country separately. However some relations and dependences occur in most of the countries. Mentioned relations are not always possible to be described
Fig. 7. Production of aggregates per capita in relation to GDP per capita (constant 1990 prices) and population density [6]
Rys. 7. Produkcja kruszywa per capita wzglêdem PKB per capita (sta³e ceny 1990 r.) i gêstoœæ zaludnienia [6]
applying basic statistics methods. During a research made by Department of Open Pit Mining of AGH University of Mining and Geoengineering, production and consumption of aggregates in particular EU countries were analyzed. For the analyses not only already mentioned methods of correlation and regression analyses but also artificial neural networks were used [6]. As a result of neural network modeling, among others, the net has been received which allow to prospect value of aggregates production per capita in relation to GDP per capita (constant 1990 prices) and population density (Fig. 7).
The received surface shows that production of aggregates per capita growths simul- taneously with GDP increase, but reaching a certain value of GDP temporary decrease of aggregates production occurs, and than further growth.
In countries where density of inhabitants is higher the turning point has greater value of GDP and the period of production decrease last shorter than in countries where density of population is lower.
For selected EU countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) prospects of aggregates production and consumption up to 2014 were prepared.
4. Prospects of aggregates production in Poland
As it was already mentioned, Poland despite being on of the largest countries in EU has a low value of indicator of aggregates production and consumption per capita. It is an additional reason why is possible to expect that demand for aggregates will growth in this country. It is already clearly visible. In 2006 and 2007 aggregates quarries had a problem to meet receiver’s needs, what had an influence on implementation of investments in construction sector. Second factor which is connected with lack of balance between pro- duction and demand is prices increase which is estimate for 15–20%.
On the basis of aggregates production (or rather extraction of aggregates, what was described in other papers [6, 8]) and demand analyses in Poland and relation between those parameters and economical growth indicators (mainly GDP) and development of population or populations density, models have been received, which were a basis for preparation of prospects for 2006–2014 (Fig. 8).
Figure 8 includes also prognosis of Polish Association of Employers Aggregates Pro- ducers (PZPPK, [5] and others). This prognosis was prepared on the basis of expert analyses of aggregates demand, which was supported on plans of roads construction and mo- dernization and construction sector development. The prognosis estimates a bit higher production than presented average prospect. the reason is that, PZPPK in 2005 estimates higher amount of aggregates production then amount which has been used for prognosis preparation (PZPPK-142 million tons, for prognosis 133,8 million tons has been taken [2]).
After 2012 PZPPK predicts decrease of aggregates production, while all prognoses re- ceived during analyses described in the paper indicates furtherer growth of aggregates production.
Production (extraction) of aggregates in Poland in 2006 was 153 million tons, what in comparison to 2005 is 14% increase. Pointed in the figure 8 amount of production is very well suited to prospects. It is a proof of their reliability.
After most probable prospects it is possible to predict that production of natural ag- gregates in Poland can reach level of 195 million tons in 2010 and 260 million tons in 2014.
However in is necessary to remember, that consumption of aggregates, and production depends on dynamics of economical development including plans of construction sector development.
Simultaneously non official prognosis of natural aggregates productions, which take into account illegal sands and gravel exploitation say that already in 2007 level of 200 million per year has been reached.
During analyses additional neural net was created. Entering data for the network were GDP per capita (constant 1990 prices), population and density but without separation for particular countries. This net allows preparing long-term prospects and simulations of aggregates production and demand. According to the model, production and demand for aggregates in Poland should increase up to 2017–2019.
5. Aggregates production prospects in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary
On the basis of described analyses prospects of natural aggregates production for listed countries were prepared. The method of prognosis preparation was similar to described in case of whole EU and Poland.
Fig. 8. Aggregates production prognosis in Poland in 2006–2014 [6]
Rys. 8. Prognoza produkcji kruszywa w Polsce w latach 2006–2014 [6]
The prognoses are presented in Figures 9, 10 and 11.
In the graphs real data about production of aggregates in 2006 (and 2005 in Hungary) were added to the prognosis.
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Productionofaggregates Production up to 2006
prospect
Fig. 9. Prognosis of aggregates production in the Czech Republic Rys. 9. Prognoza produkcji kruszywa w Czechach
Fig. 10. Prognosis of aggregates production in Slovakia Rys. 10. Prognoza produkcji kruszywa na S³owacji
Most probable prognosis for the Czech Republic (Fig. 9) assumes 5–5% of annual increase of aggregates production. Real 2006 data shows 8% growth in comparison with 2005.
In case of Slovakia the most probable prognosis (Fig. 10) assumes 16–17% of annual increase of aggregates production in first two years (2006, 2007), and than constant increase on the level of 11%. This alternative was evaluated as too optimistic. Increase of production of aggregates in Slovakia between 2006 and 2007 was only 7,5%, what indicates the thesis about too optimistic prognosis was right. On the other hand UEPG predict large growth of aggregates production in Slovakia.
Prospect of aggregates production development in Hungary predict increase of 5–6%
annually. In 2005 production of aggregates in Hungary increased more than 50% in compa- rison with previous year, and than felt down for 23%, to the value lower than prospected.
Conclusions
Statistically significant dependences of aggregates production development trends and dependences between production of aggregates and real 1990 GDP allows to easily preparing prospects of aggregates production. For these purpose not only standard technologies of data analysis but also very modern like neural network can be used. Results received from prognoses show that production of aggregates will constantly grow in EU as a whole but also in particular countries like Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Similar tendencies are observed also for other countries (Lithuania, Estonia, Spain, Portugal and other).
Fig. 11. Prognosis of aggregates production in the Hungary Rys. 11. Prognoza produkcji kruszywa na Wêgrzech
On the basis of results of analysis it is possible to claim that production of aggregates in EU will grow approximately 2,1% annually in few next years. In some countries this growth can be even much faster (Poland – 7–8%, up to 10%, the Czech Republic 5–6%, Slovakia 8–11% and Hungary 5–6%).
The question is if aggregates mining in specified countries are read for such significant increase of production? In case of majority of this countries, production of aggregates before 1990 excided current values and even those which are prospected. However in the middle time, the most favorable deposits has been already extracted, machines and facilities decre- ased its usefulness simultaneously with increase of environmental legislations restrictions.
Availability of many deposits has been limited due to environmental protection reasons from which most important is program Nature 2000.
According to reasons mentioned before, in the nearest time deficit of aggregates is expected, what can effect in growth of price of aggregates and necessity of this raw material import from neighboring countries.
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PRODUKCJA KRUSZYWA W UNII EUROPEJSKIEJ
S ³ o w a k l u c z o w e Kruszywa naturalne, produkcja, ceny, Unia Europejska
S t r e s z c z e n i e
Naturalne kruszywa maj¹ wiele zastosowañ, zw³aszcza w budownictwie l¹dowym i w sektorze budowy dróg.
Zapotrzebowanie na kruszywa roœnie wraz z rozwojem poziomu gospodarczego poszczególnych krajów. Opra- cowanie ukazuje iloœciow¹ produkcjê kruszywa w Unii Europejskiej jako ca³oœci i w poszczególnych krajach.
Przedstawiono zasady pocz¹tkowe prognozowania i perspektywy produkcji kruszywa w UE, ze wskazaniem dalszego wzrostu. Dodatkowo podano prognozê produkcji kruszywa w Polsce, na S³owacji, w Czechach i na Wêgrzech.
PRODUCTION OF AGGREGATES IN EUROPEAN UNION
K e y w o r d s Natural aggregates, production, prices, European Union
A b s t r a c t
Natural aggregates have many applications, especially in civil engineering and road construction sectors.
Demand for aggregates grows together with development of economical level of particular countries. In the paper amount of aggregates production in European Union as the whole and in particular countries were shown. Entry principles of prognosis and prospects of aggregates production in EU were presented, indicating further growth.
Additionally prognosis of aggregates production in Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary were shown.
