THE PROS AND CONS OF THE ECONOMIC

Central European Review of Economics & Finance

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THE PROS AND CONS OF THE ECONOMIC

PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT (EPA) FOR THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY (SADC) IN THE CONTEXT OF MEMBER STATES’ TRADE RELATIONS WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU)

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would affect the conditions of trade with the European Union.

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 Assistant professor, PhD, Andrzej Frycz Modrzewski Krakow University.

2 Adjunct lecturer, PhD, Cracow University of Economics.

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Introduction

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and whether it would affect the conditions of trade with the European Union.

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1. Southern Africa

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of the continent, includes fourteen more countries, very differentiated but, as a whole, in

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Table 1. Area, population and GDP of the SADC-EPA Group countries with Angola, the SADC and Africa in 2015

Area (km²) Population

(thousand persons) GDP

(USD million) GDP

per capita (USD) GDP growth rate (%)

$QJROD  25 022  4 602 0.9

%RWVZDQD  2 200  6 369 

Lesotho 30 360 2 200 2 049 960 

Mozambique 799 380 26 400  529 6.6

Namibia 284 290 2 459   5.3

South Africa  55 654  5 802 

Swaziland   3 927 3 052 

SADC-EPA 4 161 570 115 235 478 070 4 336 2.2

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Malawi   6 430 374 2.9

Mauritius 2 040    3.5

Seychelles 460 97   5.0

Tanzania 947 303 53 470 45 628 853 7.0

Zambia     2.9

Zimbabwe 390 757  5 229 335 

SADC 9 305 275 318 266 616 950 3 549 3.2

AFRICA 30 370 000 1 184 501 2 273 552 1 958 2.2

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thirdly, only 6 SADC countries^QHJRWLDWHGWKH(3$DVDZKROH¿YHRIWKHPEHORQJWR

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discussion below only refers to the SADC EPA Group rather than to all the community members.

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with Southern African countries, the European Union threatened to withdraw the pref- HUHQFHVWKXVZLWKDORVVRISUHIHUHQWLDODFFHVVWRWKHFRPPRQPDUNHWIRUFRXQWULHV

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directly affected by the TDCA. The reason was that duty-free imports to South Africa could be afterwards ex- ported without tariffs to the other SACU countries and, due to their price competitiveness, squeeze out local VXSSOLHUV7KHVLWXDWLRQZDVIXUWKHUDJJUDYDWHGE\GHFOLQLQJUHFHLSWVIURPFXVWRPVGXWLHVLQWKHFRXQWULHV

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expectations of South Africa. Over more than a dozen years, the share of South African exporters in the EU PDUNHWGURSSHGIURPWR

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 The countries are listed in Annex I to the MAR.

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The system of preferences for LDCs ensured duty-free access to the EU market, with no quantity limitations, IRUDOOJRRGVH[FHSWIRU&KDSWHURIWKH&RPELQHG1RPHQFODWXUHLHDUPVDQGDPPXQLWLRQRIDOO

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3. The main provisions of the SADC EPA concerning trade in goods

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Whereas the EPA objective is to continue and ensure duty-free access to the EU PDUNHWHQMR\HGE\%/016IRUGHFDGHVLQWKHFDVHRI6RXWK$IULFDWKHDJUHHPHQWLV

DLPHGDWLPSURYLQJWKHPDUNHWDFFHVVFRQGLWLRQVODLGGRZQLQWKH7'&$7KHDJUHHPHQW

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the EPA introduced additional selective and partial liberalisation. Selective as it applies WRVHOHFWHGDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWVSDUWLDODVLWPHDQVWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRI7DULII5DWH

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yeast and ethanol^. Combined with full and partial liberalisation, the SADC Economic 3DUWQHUVKLS$JUHHPHQWZLOOOHDGWRDOLEHUDOLVDWLRQRIRIDFWXDOH[SRUWVIURP6RXWK

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Table 2. Scope of tariff elimination and reduction provided by the SADC EPA

Tariff lines Share of actual trade in volume (2012–2014) EU offer to BLMNS

Full liberalisation H[FHSWDUPVDQGDPPXQLWLRQ

HS Chapter 93)

H[FHSWDUPVDQGDPPXQLWLRQ

HS Chapter 93) EU offer to South Africa

Full liberalisation  

Partial liberalisation  

Excluded  

SACU offer to EU

Full liberalisation  

Partial liberalisation  

Excluded  

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Full liberalisation  

Excluded  

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IURPWKH(8DQGRYHU6RXWK$IULFDQ*,VZLOOEHSURWHFWHGHJKHUEDOWHDVSRSXODU

in South Africa: Rooibos, Honeybush, Karoo Lamb, a number of wine names as well).

For example, a producer in a country other than South Africa cannot market a tea processed from a plant from its own territory under the symbolically important name 5RRLERV7KHVDPHDSSOLHVWR(8WUDGLWLRQDOSURGXFWQDPHV(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ

D7KHUHIRUHDOPRVWDOO6RXWK$IULFDQSURGXFWVFDKDYHSUHIHUHQWLDOPDUNHW

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)RUH[DPSOH6RXWK$IULFDLVQRZDOORZHGWRH[SRUWWRQQHVRIVXJDUDQGWRQQHVRIHWK- anol duty free, whereas the quota for wine exports to the EU has more than doubled, from 50 million to

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80

[Table 2]. The provisions also contain a chapter on trade defence with bilateral safe- JXDUGVDOORZLQJHDFKRIWKHSDUWLHVWRUHLQWURGXFHGXWLHVRUTXRWDVZKHUHLPSRUWVIURP

the other party disturb or threaten to disturb their economy. However, South Africa was PRVWO\FRQFHUQHGDERXWUHVWULFWLQJWKHIUHHGRPRIHQWHULQJLQWRWUDGHDJUHHPHQWVZLWK

µPDMRUWUDGLQJHFRQRPLHV¶LHFRXQWULHVDFFRXQWLQJIRUDVKDUHRIZRUOGPHUFKDQGLVH

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Russia, China or India.

4. The role of economic partnership agreements in trade relations between Southern African countries and the European Union

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middle-income countries, exports to the EU would be subject to the MFN tariffs, applied to all WTO members. It would mean deteriorated conditions of access to the EU market, HJIRUEHHIH[SRUWVVLQFHWKH0)1WDULIILVUHODWLYHO\KLJK6ZD]LODQGDORZHUPLGGOH

income company, without an EPA would be covered by the GSP. The system offers DQXPEHURIWDULIISUHIHUHQFHVEXWH[FOXGHVVXJDUDPDMRUH[SRUWSURGXFWRI6ZD]LODQG

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Table 3. 6$'& (3$ *URXS DQG WKHLU FXUUHQW DQG ¶Ļ· IXWXUH PDUNHW DFFHVV DUUDQJHPHQW LI QR (3$V

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Country Customs status/market access

The same access conditions

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Deteriorated access conditions

Swaziland 0$5ĺGSP

%RWVZDQD1DPLELD 0$5ĺMFN

6RXUFHRZQVWXG\EDVHGRQ&RXQFLO5HJXODWLRQ(&1RRI'HFHPEHU&RPPLVVLRQ'HO- HJDWHG5HJXODWLRQ(81RRI-XO\

,QWHUPVRIJHQHUDOEHQH¿WVDQGFRVWVRIWKHFRQFOXVLRQRI(3$VE\6RXWKHUQ$IULFDQ

FRXQWULHVWKHEHQH¿WVZRXOGLQFOXGHGXW\IUHHDFFHVVWRWKH(8PDUNHWZKHUHDVWKH

FRVWVZRXOGEHWKHQHFHVVLW\WRRSHQXSWKHLURZQPDUNHWVE\OLIWLQJWDULIIVDQGH[SRVXUH

to competition from EU producers and, in the future, service providers as well, lower ÀH[LELOLW\LQLQFUHDVLQJWDULIIVVKRXOGVXFKDQHHGDULVHLQWKHIXWXUHLQDGGLWLRQDIDOOLQ

revenue from customs duties.

Table 4. EU trade with the SADC EPA group of countries and with Angola in 2013–2016 (EUR million)

IMPORTS EXPORTS

2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016

Angola 9,308 9,389 7,981 4,188 6,197 6,741 4,856 3,388

main commodities

DVRIWRWDO 0LQHUDOSURGXFWVSHDUOVSUHFLRXV

PHWDOVDQGDUWLFOHVWKHUHRI0DFKLQHU\

DQGDSSOLDQFHV

0DFKLQHU\DQGDSSOLDQFHVEDVH

PHWDOVSURGXFWVRIWKHFKHPLFDORU

DOOLHGLQGXVWULHV

Botswana 3,442 1,822 1,503 2,196 946 273 275 332

main commodities

DVRIWRWDO Pearls, precious metals and articles WKHUHRIEDVHPHWDOVPLQHUDOSURG- XFWVOLYHDQLPDOVDQLPDOSURGXFWV

Pearls, precious metals and articles there- RI0DFKLQHU\DQGDSSOLDQFHV

WUDQVSRUWHTXLSPHQW

Lesotho 187 247 254 208 15 11 12 12

main commodities

DVRIWRWDO Pearls, precious metals and articles there- RIYHJHWDEOHSURGXFWVWH[WLOHV

DQGWH[WLOHDUWLFOHV

0DFKLQHU\DQGDSSOLDQFHVPLQHUDO

SURGXFWVSXOSRIZRRGSDSHUSDSHU

ERDUGYHJHWDEOHSURGXFWV

0R]DPELTXH 1,332 1,366 1,435 1,325 835 894 982 689

main commodities

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Namibia 941 963 1,038 1,090 753 538 404 373

main commodities

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South Africa 15,560 18,514 19,399 22,928 24,481 23,318 25,432 22,974 main commodities

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6ZD]LODQG 230 151 139 122 23 29 35 51

main commodities

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Products of the chemical or allied indus- WULHVPLVFHOODQHRXVPDQXIDFWXUHG

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WREDFFR

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,WLVZRUWKHPSKDVLVLQJWKDWWKH(8FRXQWULHVDUHPDMRUWUDGLQJSDUWQHUVRIWKH

6$'&,QWKH(8UHFHLYHGRIWKHWRWDOH[SRUWVRIWKHUHJLRQDKHDGRI&KLQD

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LPSRUWVIROORZHGE\GHOLYHULHVIURP&KLQD±DOPRVW$WWKHVDPHWLPHWKHFRXQ- tries concerned only accounted for a limited proportion of extra-EU exports and imports:

DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\LQ(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ7UDGH6WDWLVWLFV

7KH6$'&FRXQWULHVPRVWO\H[SRUWPLQHUDOSURGXFWVSUHFLRXVVWRQHVDQGDJULFXOWXUDO

SURGXFWVVXFKDVIUXLWDQGVXJDUWRWKH(87KH(3$FRXQWULHVDUHVWURQJLQH[SRUWLQJ

GLDPRQGVLQ6RXWK$IULFD%RWVZDQD/HVRWKRDQG1DPLELDWKRVHFRQVWLWXWHDODUJHWR

dominant share of their exports to the EU [Table 4].

2WKHUSURGXFWVIURPWKHUHJLRQLQFOXGHDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWVEHHIIURP%RWVZDQD

¿VKIURP1DPLELDRUVXJDUIURP6ZD]LODQGRLOIURP$QJRODRUDOXPLQLXPIURP0R- ]DPELTXH6RXWK$IULFDQH[SRUWVWRWKH(8DUHFRQVLGHUDEO\GLYHUVL¿HGDQGUDQJHIURP

IUXLWWRSODWLQXPDQGIURPPDQXIDFWXUHGJRRGVWRZLQH,QLWVWUDGHZLWKWKH(86RXWK

Africa faces little competition from the SADC5 countries. It is only in aluminium that SA H[SRUWVFRPSHWHZLWK0R]DPELTXH7KH(8H[SRUWVDZLGHUDQJHRISURGXFWVWRWKH

6$'&(3$FRXQWULHVHJYHKLFOHVPDFKLQHU\HOHFWULFDOHTXLSPHQWSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV

and processed foodstuffs.

$FFRUGLQJWRWKH6RXWK&HQWUH¶VFDOFXODWLRQVWKH6$'&(3$FRXQWULHVDUHRQO\PRUH

FRPSHWLWLYHWKDQWKH(8RQRIWRWDOWDULIIOLQHV^$VUHJDUGVWKHYDVWPDMRULW\RI

SURGXFWVWKH(8LVHLWKHUPRUHFRPSHWLWLYHRUWKH$IULFDQVXEUHJLRQVGRQRW

FXUUHQWO\KDYHORFDOSURGXFWLRQFDSDFLW\

,QWKHFDVHRIRIWKHWDULIIOLQHVSURGXFWVRQZKLFKWKH6$'&(3$FRXQWULHV

ZLOOHOLPLQDWHWDULIIVORFDOSURGXFWLRQZLOOEHH[SRVHGWRVWURQJFRPSHWLWLRQIURPPRUH

FRPSHWLWLYH(8JRRGVRXWRIWDULIIOLQHV7KRVHDUHOLQHVVXEMHFWWROLEHU- DOLVDWLRQDQGZKHUHWKH(8LVPRUHFRPSHWLWLYHWKDQWKH6$'&2YHUDOORIWKH

total number of tariff lines or products are at risk as a result of the EPA liberalisation FXUUHQWDQGIXWXUHSURGXFWLRQ7KHPDLQVHFWRUVZKHUHUHJLRQDOWUDGHH[LVWVDQGFRXOG

EHGLVUXSWHGGXHWRWKHJUHDWHUFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIWKH(8DUHDVIROORZV6RXWK&HQWUH

S

– processed oil products,

– chemical products,

– intermediate industrial products,

– ¿QDOLQGXVWULDOSURGXFWV

– parts of machines,

– vehicle industry,

– Portland cement,

– SURFHVVHGDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWV

– medicines,

– WH[WLOHDQGFORWKLQJ

7KLVLVDOUHDG\KLJKHUWKDQWKHRWKHUVXEUHJLRQVHDFKIRUWKH($&DQG(6$(3$VIRU(&2:$6

DQGRQO\IRU&HQWUDO$IULFD6RXWK&HQWUHS

Conclusions

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RIWKHUHJLRQWKHUHIRUHLWH[HUWHGSUHVVXUHWRVSHHGXSDQG¿QDOLVH(3$QHJRWLDWLRQV

In addition, the European Union demanded that deepened free trade areas should be FUHDWHGFRYHULQJQRWRQO\JRRGVEXWDOVRVHUYLFHVRULQYHVWPHQWIXOO(3$V

7KH6$'&(3$*URXSFRXQWULHVFRQVWLWXWHQRKRPRJHQHRXVEORFEHLQJPHPEHUV

RIGLIIHUHQWUHJLRQDOLQWHJUDWLRQFRPPXQLWLHV)LYHFRXQWULHVEHORQJWRWKH6$&8DFXV- WRPVXQLRQZLWKDVLQJOHFXVWRPVDUHDDQGDFRPPRQH[WHUQDOWDULII7KHFXVWRPV

DUHDH[FOXGHV$QJRODDQG0R]DPELTXHERWKFRXQWULHVKDYHWKHLURZQFXVWRPVWDULIIV

7KHUHIRUHWKH,(3$LQYROYHGWKHFRQFOXVLRQRIQHZDJUHHPHQWVEHWZHHQ0R]DPELTXH

DQGSRVVLEO\$QJRODDWDODWHUWLPHRIWKHRQHSDUWDQGWKH6$&8RIWKHRWKHUSDUW)XU- WKHUPRUHWKH6$&8(3$*URXSGRHVQRWLQFOXGHDOOWKHPHPEHUVWDWHVRIWKHLQWHJUD- WLRQFRPPXQLW\WKHRWKHUFRXQWULHVSDUWLFLSDWHLQ(3$QHJRWLDWLRQVZLWKRWKHUUHJLRQV

Such an approach undermines the fundamental characteristics of customs unions and IUHHWUDGHDUHDVLQWKHUHJLRQ,WLVDOVRLQFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHREMHFWLYHVRIWKH&RWRQRX

$JUHHPHQW6HFWLRQDQGWKHFRPPLWPHQWVFRQWDLQHGLQWKH6$'&(3$$UWLFOHE RIWKH6$'&(3$µSURPRWHUHJLRQDOLQWHJUDWLRQ¶DQG$UWLFOHµUHJLRQDOLQWHJUDWLRQ¶ ZLWKUHJDUGWRVXSSRUWLQJDQGVWUHQJWKHQLQJUHJLRQDOLQWHJUDWLRQ

+DGWKH6RXWKHUQ$IULFDQFRXQWULHVQRWFRQFOXGHGHFRQRPLFSDUWQHUVKLSDJUHHPHQWV

their customs status in access to the European Union market would be different. In WKHFDVHRI%RWVZDQDDQG1DPLELDXSSHUPLGGOHLQFRPHFRXQWULHVH[SRUWVWRWKH(8

would be subject to the MFN tariffs, applied to all WTO members. It would mean dete- ULRUDWHGFRQGLWLRQVRIDFFHVVWRWKH(8PDUNHWIRUFHUWDLQDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWVVLQFHWKH

0)1WDULIIVDUHUHODWLYHO\KLJK6ZD]LODQGDORZHUPLGGOHLQFRPHFRPSDQ\ZLWKRXWDQ

(3$ZRXOGEHFRYHUHGE\WKH*63$OWKRXJKWKH*63RIIHUVDQXPEHURIWDULIISUHIHU- HQFHVLWH[FOXGHVVXJDUDPDMRUH[SRUWSURGXFWRI6ZD]LODQG7KHUHIRUHDVDPDWWHU

RIIDFWWKHFRXQWU\FRQFHUQHGZRXOGDOVRLQFXUFRVWVRIKDYLQJQR(3$/HVRWKRDQG

0R]DPELTXHWKHWZROHDVWGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHV/'&VLQWKHUHJLRQZRXOGVWLOOEHQH¿W

IURPWKH(%$DUUDQJHPHQWWKXVWKHLU(8PDUNHWDFFHVVFRQGLWLRQVZRXOGQRWZRUVHQ

7KHFRXQWULHVZRXOGVWLOOEHEHQH¿FLDULHVRIXQLODWHUDOSUHIHUHQFHVLHYLUWXDOO\GXW\IUHH

LPSRUWVWRWKH(87KHUHZRXOGEHQRQHHGWROLIWWDULIIVRQLPSRUWHG(8JRRGV7UDGH

ZLWK6RXWK$IULFDZRXOGFRQWLQXHWREHUHJXODWHGE\WKH7UDGH'HYHORSPHQWDQG&R- RSHUDWLRQ$JUHHPHQW7'&$SURYLGLQJIRURQO\LQVLJQL¿FDQWO\ZRUVHWUDGHFRQGLWLRQV

that those contained in the SADC EPA.



References

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acp.int/content/secretariat-acp.

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%RUJDWWL/(FRQRPLFLQWHJUDWLRQLQ6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFD,Q-RYDQRZLü01Interna- WLRQDO+DQGERRNRQWKH(FRQRPLFVRI,QWHJUDWLRQ9ROXPH,&KHOWKDHQKDP8.1RUWKDPSWRQ

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