Iden%fica%on of key factors and driving forces of development of automated vehicles
Assessment of impact and uncertainty of
driving forces
Construc%on of the scenario matrix
Es%ma%on of penetra%on rates and poten%al implica%ons of automated vehicles
in each scenario
Review of the scenarios and assessment of the likelihood and overall
impact of each scenario
Exploring plausible futures of automated vehicles in the Netherlands: results from a scenario analysis
Dimitris Milakisa, Maaike Snelderab , Bart van Arema, Bert van Weec, Gonçalo Homem de Almeida Correiaa
a Department of Transport and Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, DelL University of Technology
b TNO Netherlands Organiza%on for Applied Scien%fic Research
c Transport and Logis%cs Group, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, DelL University of Technology
Introduc;on
o The introduc%on to the market, the development and the implica%ons of automated driving are among the main uncertain%es of the future transport system. o The design of robust long-‐term transport policies and investments needs to take into account those uncertain%es.
o Our study aimed to iden%fy plausible future development paths of automated vehicles (AV) in the Netherlands and to es%mate poten%al implica%ons for traffic, travel behavior and transport planning on a %me horizon up to 2030 and 2050.
o We conducted a scenario analysis that involved experts from various planning, technology, and research organiza%ons in the Netherlands and was completed in three workshops.
Methods
Conclusions
o Fully automated vehicles are expected to be commercially available between 2025 and 2045, and penetrate the market rapidly aLer their introduc%on. o Complexity of urban environment and unexpected incidents may influence development path of automated vehicles.
o Certain implica%ons on mobility are expected in all scenarios, although there is great varia%on on the impacts among the scenarios. o It is expected that measures to curb growth of travel and subsequent externali%es will be necessary in three out of the four scenarios.
This research was funded by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
Automated Vehicles Symposium 2015
Results
Scenario Matrix
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AV …
in standby
ü Fully automated & coopera%ve vehicles (V2V) in 2030.
ü Legisla%on inflexibility for AV. Transport policies restraining use of AV. High regula%on of AV trials.
ü Modest economic growth.
ü “Wait and see…” customers’ aftude, mid-‐ low demand for AVs.
ü No major environmental problems, but s%ll low penetra%on of electric vehicles.
High technological development
AV
…in bloom
ü Fully automated & coopera%ve vehicles (V2V & V2I) in 2025.
ü Laws allowing AV traffic. Limited regula%on of AV trials. Public investments on AV research and on smart infrastructure. ü High economic growth.
ü Posi%ve customers’ aftude, strong demand for AVs.
ü Limited environmental problems. Clean technologies prevail.
Restric;ve AV policies
Suppor;ve AV policies
ü Fully automated vehicles in 2045. ü Limited legisla%on for AV integra%on. No
AV trials allowed.
ü Recessive economy, high unemployment. ü Nega%ve customers’ aftude, almost no
demand for AVs.
ü Important environmental problems. Very slow transi%on to low-‐carbon economy.
AV
…in doubt
Low technological development
ü Fully automated & coopera%ve (V2I) vehicles in 2040.
ü Progressive legisla%on for AV integra%on. No regula%on of AV trials. Promo%onal campaigns.
ü Slow economic growth.
ü “Not really interested…” customers’ aftude, low demand for AVs.
ü Increased environmental problems. Transport sector s%ll among major polluters.
AV
…in demand
AV in vehicles fleet (%) & AV VKT in total travel (%)* Value of %me (% decrease)*
*Each bar represents the average value of five (twenty for the percepEon of likelihood) experts’ responses collected in three workshops and the error bar depicts standard deviaEon.