The Dark Arts:
• Bayesian inference
• Credible intervals
• Systematics uncertainties
Statistics and Data Analysis (HEP)
Prof. dr hab. Elżbieta Richter-Wąs
Follow the course/slides from M. A. Thomson lectures at Cambridge University
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Parameter Estimation Revisited
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Conditional Probabilities and Bayes’ Theory
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Applying Bayes’ Theorem
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The Problem with Applying Bayes’ Theorem
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Choice of Prior, example I
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Choice of Prior, example II
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Bayesian Credible Intervals
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Bayesian Credible Intervals - example
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Likelihood Ordering
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C.I. vs C. L.
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A Few words on Systematics Uncertainties
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Estimating Systematics Uncertainties
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Incorporating Systematics into Fits
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Incorporating Systematics into Fits
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Appendix: Choice of Prior, example III
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