$ 1 1 $ / ( 6
8 1 , 9 ( 5 6 , 7$7 , 6 0 $ 5 , $ ( & 8 5 , ( 6 . à 2 ' 2 : 6 . $ /8%/,1±32/21,$ 92/;/9,, 6(&7,2+ 8QLZHUV\WHW0DULL&XULH6NáRGRZVNLHMZ/XEOLQLH.DWHGUD*RVSRGDUNLĝZLDWRZHML,QWHJUDFML(XURSHMVNLHM 720$6=%,$à2:Ą62WZDUWRĞüKDQGORZDLG\ZHUV\¿NDFMDHNVSRUWX
DZ]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\ZODWDFK ±
7UDGHRSHQQHVVH[SRUWGLYHUVL¿FDWLRQDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWKLQWKH\HDUV ± 6áRZDNOXF]RZH G\ZHUV\¿NDFMDHNVSRUWXRWZDUWRĞüKDQGORZDZ]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\ .H\ZRUGV H[SRUWGLYHUVL¿FDWLRQWUDGHRSHQQHVVHFRQRPLFJURZWK :VWĊS 3RGDWQRĞüNUDMXQD]HZQĊWU]QHV]RNLJRVSRGDUF]HMHVWZ]QDF]QHMPLHU]HX]DOHĪ QLRQDRGVWRSQLDMHJRRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHM,PZ\ĪV]\SR]LRPHNVSRUWXLLPSRUWX ZVWRVXQNXGRSURGXNWXNUDMRZHJREUXWWRW\PZLĊNV]\ZSá\ZQDJRVSRGDUNĊQDUR GRZą PD VWDQ NRQLXQNWXU\ QD U\QNDFK ]DJUDQLF]Q\FK: NUDMDFK X]DOHĪQLRQ\FK RG LPSRUWXZV]F]HJyOQRĞFLRGVXURZFyZPDMąF\FKVWUDWHJLF]QH]QDF]HQLHGODUR]ZRMX JRVSRGDUF]HJRZ\VRNLVWRSLHĔRWZDUWRĞFLJRVSRGDUF]HMVWDQRZL]DJURĪHQLHZV\WX DFMLJZDáWRZQHJRZ]URVWXFHQQDU\QNDFKĞZLDWRZ\FK=JRGQLH]GDQ\PL81&7$' Z URNX LPSRUW WRZDUyZ L XVáXJ VWDQRZLá ĞZLDWRZHJR 3.% Z NUDMDFK UR]ZLQLĊW\FKE\áRWR ZUR]ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊDZJRVSRGDUNDFKQDMVáDELHM UR]ZLQLĊW\FK MXĪ >81&7$' @ =D QDMEDUG]LHM ]DJURĪRQH PRĪQD X]QDü PDáHF]ĊVWRSRáRĪRQHQDZ\VSDFKNUDMHUR]ZLMDMąFHVLĊZNWyU\FKX]DOHĪQLHQLHJR VSRGDUNLRGLPSRUWXVLĊJD3.%:ZDUXQNDFKSRVWĊSXMąFHMJOREDOL]DFMLLLQWHUQDFMRQDOL]DFMLG]LDáDOQRĞFLJRVSRGDU F]HM HNVSRUW VWDMH VLĊ FRUD] LVWRWQLHMV]\P F]\QQLNLHP Z]URVWX JRVSRGDUF]HJR :LĊN V]RĞüDXWRUyZSU]HSURZDG]RQ\FKEDGDĔHPSLU\F]Q\FKSRWZLHUG]LáDSR]\W\ZQ\]ZLą ]HNPLĊG]\VWRSQLHPRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHMDZ]URVWHPJRVSRGDUF]\PNUDMXZGáXJLP
720$6=%,$à2:Ą6 RNUHVLH>*LOHV:LOOLDPVV± +DUULVRQ5RGUtJXH]&ODUHV ± @-HGQ\P]QDMF]ĊĞFLHMF\WRZDQ\FKRSUDFRZDĔMHVWRSXEOLNRZDQ\ZUDUW\ NXá''ROODUDL$.UDD\DZNWyU\PZ\ND]DOLRQLĪHNUDMHFKDUDNWHU\]XMąFHVLĊZ\VRNą RWZDUWRĞFLąKDQGORZą Z\VRNLPZVNDĨQLNLHPHNVSRUWXGR3.% FKDUDNWHU\]RZDá\VLĊ ]GHF\GRZDQLHZ\ĪV]ąG\QDPLNąZ]URVWXJRVSRGDUF]HJRRGW\FKZPQLHMV]\PVWRSQLX ]JOREDOL]RZDQ\FK:\QRVLáDRQDZODWDFKRGSRZLHGQLRLDZODWDFK L>'ROODU.UDD\@-HGQDNZV\WXDFMLNU\]\VXJRVSRGDUF]HJR]HZ]JOĊ GXQDZ\VWĊSRZDQLHHIHNWyZPQRĪQLNRZ\FKSRJDUV]DMąFDVLĊNRQLXQNWXUDQDU\QNDFK ]DJUDQLF]Q\FKSURZDG]LGRV]\ENLHJRVSDGNX]\VNyZ]HNVSRUWXL]DáDPDQLDJRVSRGDU F]HJRZNUDMX 3RGDWQRĞüNUDMXQD]HZQĊWU]HV]RNLJRVSRGDUF]H]DOHĪ\QLHW\ONRRGMHJRRWZDUWRĞFL JRVSRGDUF]HM DOH SU]HGH ZV]\VWNLP RG VWRSQLD NRQFHQWUDFML JHRJUD¿F]QHM L VWUXNWXU\ SU]HGPLRWRZHMKDQGOX]DJUDQLF]QHJR,PEDUG]LHM]G\ZHUV\¿NRZDQDMHVWVWUXNWXUDJHR JUD¿F]QD HNVSRUWX RUD] LP ZLĊNV]D OLF]ED HNVSRUWRZDQ\FK SURGXNWyZ W\P PQLHMV]D ZUDĪOLZRĞüQD]HZQĊWU]QHV]RNLJRVSRGDUF]H5R]ZLMDMąFHVLĊG\QDPLF]QLHNUDMH$]ML 3RáXGQLRZR:VFKRGQLHM QDOHĪą GR QDMEDUG]LHM RWZDUW\FK KDQGORZR JRVSRGDUHN MHG QRF]HĞQLHVWUXNWXUDSU]HGPLRWRZDLFKHNVSRUWXMHVW]G\ZHUV\¿NRZDQDDVWRSLHĔNRQ FHQWUDFML HNVSRUWX QLVNL =MDZLVNR WR ]QDQH SRG QD]Zą SDUDGRNVX 6LQJDSXUX RSLVDá ZRSXEOLNRZDQ\PZUDUW\NXOH/%ULJXJOLR>%ULJXJOLR@6WRSLHĔRWZDUWRĞFL KDQGORZHM6LQJDSXUX HNVSRUWLPSRUWWRZDUyZLXVáXJZVWRVXQNXGR3.% ZURNX SU]HNURF]\áDOH]HZ]JOĊGXQDQLVNąNRQFHQWUDFMĊVWUXNWXU\HNVSRUWXQDZHW ZRNUHVDFKJOREDOQHMGHNRQLXQNWXU\JRVSRGDUF]HMWHPSRZ]URVWXUHDOQHJR3.%E\áR Z\ĪV]HQLĪZLQQ\FKNUDMDFKUHJLRQX &HOHPDUW\NXáXMHVWZHU\¿NDFMDKLSRWH]\ĪHZ\VRNLVWRSLHĔ]UyĪQLFRZDQLDVWUXN WXU\SU]HGPLRWRZHMKDQGOXMHVWF]\QQLNLHPáDJRG]ąF\PVNXWNL]DJUDQLF]Q\FKV]RNyZ JRVSRGDUF]\FKZNUDMDFKRZ\VRNLPSR]LRPLHRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHM%DGDQLHRJUDQL F]RQRGRHNVSRUWXWRZDUyZ=DNUHVF]DVRZ\VWDQRZLąODWD ±DZV]F]HJyOQR ĞFLODWDNU\]\VyZJRVSRGDUF]\FK± L $QDOL]ąVWDW\VW\F]QąREMĊWR SDĔVWZDQLH]EĊGQHGDQHSRFKRG]ą]ED]\RSUDFRZDQHMSU]H]81&7$'
'R RFHQ\ VWRSQLD NRQFHQWUDFML HNVSRUWX ]DVWRVRZDQR ZVNDĨQLN +HU¿QGDKOD±+LU VFKPDQD ZNWyU\P+MMHVWLQGHNVHPNRQFHQWUDFMLSU]\MPXMąF\PZDUWRĞFLRGGR >81&7$'V@,PQLĪV]DZDUWRĞüZVNDĨQLNDW\PPQLHMV]DNRQFHQWUDFMD VWUXNWXU\SU]HGPLRWRZHMHNVSRUWX;LR]QDF]DZDUWRĞüHNVSRUWXSURGXNWXL QQDWRPLDVW MHVWOLF]EąHNVSRUWRZDQ\FKSURGXNWyZ;REOLF]RQRZHGáXJIRUPXá\
ܪ
ൌ
ටσసభቀೣቁమିඥଵȀ ଵିඥଵȀܺ ൌ σ
ݔ
ୀଵUMCS
27:$572ĝû+$1'/2:$,'<:(56<),.$&-$(.632578$:=5267*2632'$5&=<«
7HQGHQFMH Z NV]WDáWRZDQLX VLĊ RWZDUWRĞFL KDQGORZHM L NRQFHQWUDFML HNVSRUWX ZODWDFK ±
-HGQą ] QDMZDĪQLHMV]\FK WHQGHQFML ]DFKRG]ąF\FK ZH ZVSyáF]HVQHM JRVSRGDUFH ĞZLDWRZHM MHVW SRVWĊSXMąFD RG SRáRZ\ ODW JOREDOL]DFMD G]LDáDOQRĞFL JRVSRGDUF]HM :ODWDFK ± XG]LDáHNVSRUWXWRZDUyZZĞZLDWRZ\P3.%E\áUHODW\ZQLHVWDá\ LZDKDáVLĊZJUDQLFDFK±3RURNX QDVWąSLáZ\UDĨQ\Z]URVWVWRSQLDRWZDUWR ĞFLKDQGORZHMV]F]HJyOQLHZ\UDĨQ\ZJUXSLHNUDMyZUR]ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊ:ODWDFK ± XG]LDáHNVSRUWXZ3.%Z]UyVáQDĞZLHFLH]GRZJUXSLHNUDMyZ UR]ZLQLĊW\FKJRVSRGDUF]R±]GRDZNUDMDFKUR]ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊ±] GR SRUU\VXQHN ĝZLDW .UDMHUR]ZLMDMąFHVLĊ .UDMHUR]ZLQLĊWHJRVSRGDUF]R 5\VXQHN8G]LDáHNVSRUWXWRZDUyZZ3.%ZODWDFK ± Z ħUyGáR >81&7$'@ :URNXZF]WHUHFKNUDMDFK 6LQJDSXU+RQJNRQJ$UXEDL,UDN Z\VRNRĞüRSLV\ ZDQHJRZVNDĨQLNDSU]HNUDF]DáDZNROHMQ\FKPLHĞFLáDVLĊZSU]HG]LDOHRG GR D Z Z\QRVLáD RG GR 1DMEDUG]LHM RWZDUW\P KDQGORZR UHJLRQHP ĞZLDWDE\áD$IU\NDĝURGNRZD XG]LDáHNVSRUWXZ3.%Z\QRVLá RUD]$]MD3RáXGQLR ZR:VFKRGQLD 1DMQLĪV]\PXG]LDáHPHNVSRUWXZ3.%FKDUDNWHU\]RZDá\VLĊNUDMH $PHU\NL3RáXGQLRZHM ZNWyU\FKDĪGRODW SURZDG]RQRSROLW\NĊVXEVW\WXFML LPSRUWX-HGQRF]HĞQLHQDOHĪ\]ZUyFLüXZDJĊQDZ\VWĊSRZDQLH]MDZLVNDNRQZHUJHQFMLSRG Z]JOĊGHPSR]LRPXRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHM:URNX RGFK\OHQLHVWDQGDUGRZHRGĞUHGQLHM GODSUyE\NUDMyZZ\QRVLáRLVSDGáRRSRáRZĊGRZURNX 1LH]DOHĪQLHRGRVLąJQLĊWHJRSR]LRPXUR]ZRMXJRVSRGDUF]HJRNUDMXZVNXWHNWU]HFK NU\]\VyZJRVSRGDUF]\FK L SR]LRPRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHMZ\UDĨQLHVLĊ ]PQLHMV]Dá:URNX VSDGHNE\áUHODW\ZQLHQLHZLHONL SXQNWXSURFHQWRZHJR LGR W\F]\áJáyZQLHNUDMyZUR]ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊ:URNXXG]LDáHNVSRUWXWRZDUyZZĞZLDWR
UMCS
720$6=%,$à2:Ą6 Z\P3.%VSDGáRSXQNWXSURFHQWRZHJRDZNUDMDFKUR]ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊMXĪRSXQN WX1DMZLĊNV]H]DáDPDQLHQDVWąSLáRZURNX :VNDOLJOREDOQHMRWZDUWRĞüKDQGORZD VSDGáDRSXQNWXZNUDMDFKUR]ZLQLĊW\FKJRVSRGDUF]RRSXQNWXZUR]ZLMDMąF\FK VLĊRSXQNWyZDZQDMVáDELHMUR]ZLQLĊW\FKRSXQNWX6SDGNLRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHM ZRNUHVLHNU\]\VXPRĪHP\Z\MDĞQLüZ\VRNąGRFKRGRZąHODVW\F]QRĞFLąHNVSRUWXNWyUD MHV]F]HZ]URVáDQDSU]HáRPLHURNXL (NVSHUFL.RPLVML(XURSHMVNLHMSRGDMąĪH ĞUHGQLDGRFKRGRZDHODVW\F]QRĞüHNVSRUWXZRNUHVLHRG,,NZDUWDáX UGR,9NZDU WDáXU Z\QRVLáD RG, NZDUWDáXUGR,,,NZDUWDáX U±QDWR PLDVWZ\UDĨQLHZ]URVáDZRNUHVLHRG,9NZDUWDáXUGR,NZDUWDáX U±GR :UD]]RĪ\ZLHQLHPJRVSRGDUF]\PGRFKRGRZDHODVW\F]QRĞü]PDODáDGRZRNUHVLHRG ,,NZDUWDáX UGR,,,NZDUWDáXU>(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQV@ 2SLHUDMąFVLĊQDLQGHNVLH+HU¿QGDKOD±+LUVFKPDQDLQIRUPXMąF\PRVNDOLNRQFHQ WUDFMLVWUXNWXU\SU]HGPLRWRZHMHNVSRUWXNUDMXPRĪHP\ZVND]DüSHZQH]DVDGQLF]HWHQ GHQFMH:ODWDFK ±QDVWąSLáZ\UDĨQ\Z]URVWNRQFHQWUDFMLHNVSRUWXZJUXSLH NUDMyZ UR]ZLMDMąF\FK VLĊ SRU U\VXQHN :DUWRĞü LQGHNVX +HU¿QGDKOD±+LUVFKPDQD Z]URVáD] GR5yZQRF]HĞQLHQDOHĪ\SRGNUHĞOLüZ\UDĨQLHSURF\NOLF]Q\ FKDUDNWHU]PLDQZNRQFHQWUDFMLHNVSRUWX:ODWDFKVSRZROQLHQLDJRVSRGDUF]HJRQDVWĊ SRZDáVSDGHNNRQFHQWUDFMLHNVSRUWXNWyU\V]\ENRUyVáZUD]]RĪ\ZLHQLHPJRVSRGDU F]\P:NUDMDFKZ\VRNRUR]ZLQLĊW\FKLQGHNVNRQFHQWUDFMLHNVSRUWXSR]RVWDZDáZOD WDFK ±VWDELOQ\QLHZ\ND]\ZDáUyZQLHĪWHQGHQFMLGRSURF\NOLF]QRĞFL ĝZLDW .UDMHUR]ZLMDMąFHVLĊ .UDMHUR]ZLQLĊWHJRVSRGDUF]R 5\VXQHN,QGHNV\+HU¿QGDKOD±+LUVFKPDQD ħUyGáR >81&7$'@ 1DMZ\ĪV]ąZDUWRĞüLQGHNV\NRQFHQWUDFMLSU]\MPXMąZNUDMDFKRQDMQLĪV]\PSR]LRPLH 3.%SHUFDSLWD:$IU\FHĝURGNRZHM ZURNX V]F]HJyOQLHZ\VRNDNRQFHQ WUDFMDZ\VWĊSRZDáDZ$QJROL L&]DG]LH Z$IU\FH=DFKRGQLHM ± Z*ZLQHL%LVVDX L1LJHULL RUD]Z$]ML=DFKRGQLHM JG]LH]QDF]Qą F]ĊĞüWHU\WRULXPVWDQRZLąNUDMHHNVSRUWXMąFHURSĊQDIWRZą ,UDN $UDELD6DXG\MVND
UMCS
27:$572ĝû+$1'/2:$,'<:(56<),.$&-$(.632578$:=5267*2632'$5&=<« :ĞUyGNUDMyZUR]ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊQDMEDUG]LHM]UyĪQLFRZDQąVWUXNWXUĊSU]HGPLRWRZą HNVSRUWXPLDá\ZURNXNUDMH$]ML:VFKRGQLHM ]ZáDV]F]D&KLQ\ =DOHĪQRĞFLSRPLĊG]\RWZDUWRĞFLąKDQGORZąNRQFHQWUDFMąHNVSRUWXLG\QDPLNą 3.%ZODWDFKNU\]\VyZJRVSRGDUF]\FK
=DOHĪQRĞFL Z\VWĊSXMąFH SRPLĊG]\ RWZDUWRĞFLą KDQGORZą NRQFHQWUDFMą HNVSRUWX LVNDOą]DáDPDQLDJRVSRGDUF]HJRVą]áRĪRQH6WDMąVLĊRQHEDUG]LHMZ\UDĨQHZRNUHVDFK GHNRQLXQNWXU\D]ZáDV]F]DZODWDFKNU\]\VyZJRVSRGDUF]\FK:RSLV\ZDQ\PRNUHVLH WU]\NURWQLHZ\VWąSLá\WHQGHQFMHUHFHV\MQH±SRUD]SLHUZV]\ZURNX NLHG\VSR ZROQLHQLHJRVSRGDUF]HGRW\F]\áRFDáHJRĞZLDWDDZ$]ML$PHU\FH3RáXGQLRZHML5RVML SDQRZDá JáĊERNL NU\]\V 3RQRZQLH JRVSRGDUND ĞZLDWRZD VSRZROQLáD Z URNX ± ZVNXWHNNU\]\VX¿QDQVRZHJRDG\QDPLNDZ]URVWXZROXPHQXHNVSRUWXSRUD]SLHUZV]\ RGODWSU]\MĊáDZDUWRĞFLXMHPQH1DMZLĊNV]\NU\]\VPLDáPLHMVFHZURNX =DáD PDQLHGRW\F]\áRZV]\VWNLFKUHJLRQyZMHGQDNMHJRVNDODE\áD]UyĪQLFRZDQD :QDV]HMDQDOL]LHZ\MG]LHP\RG]EDGDQLD]DOHĪQRĞFLSRPLĊG]\NRQFHQWUDFMąHNV SRUWXPLHU]RQąLQGHNVHP+HU¿QGDKOD±+LUVFKPDQDDG\QDPLNąHNVSRUWX=ZHU\¿NXMH P\KLSRWH]Ċ :DUWRĞüHNVSRUWXNUDMyZ]EDUG]LHM]G\ZHUV\¿NRZDQ\PHNVSRUWHPSRG OHJDPQLHMV]\PZDKDQLRP -HĞOLHNVSRUWNUDMXMHVWGRVNRQDOHVNRQFHQWURZDQ\ZyZF]DV]\VNL]HNVSRUWXZD KDMąVLĊZUD]]H]PLDQDPLFHQQDU\QNDFKĞZLDWRZ\FK:ODWDFKGHNRQLXQNWXU\FHQ\ ZLHOXSURGXNWyZ]HZ]JOĊGXQDNXUF]ąF\VLĊSRS\WNRQVXPSF\MQ\LLQZHVW\F\MQ\PDOH MąMHGQDN]SRZRGX]UyĪQLFRZDQHMGRFKRGRZHMHODVW\F]QRĞFLSRS\WXPLĊG]\UyĪQ\PL NDWHJRULDPLGyEUZDKDQLDFHQVąQLHMHGQDNRZH=DWHPNUDMH]EDUG]LHM]UyĪQLFRZDQą VWUXNWXUąQLHGRĞZLDGF]DMąWDNJáĊERNLFKÀXNWXDFMLHNVSRUWX=DOHĪQRĞFLWH]QDMGXMąSR WZLHUG]HQLHZGDQ\FKVWDW\VW\F]Q\FK:WDEHOL]QDMGXMąVLĊZ\QLNLREOLF]HĔGODJUXS\ SRQDGNUDMyZ%H]Z]JOĊGXQDURNGODNWyUHJRSU]HSURZDG]RQREDGDQLHKLSRWH]D MHVW VLOQLH SR]\W\ZQLH ]ZHU\¿NRZDQD .UDMH R Z\VRFH VNRQFHQWURZDQHM VWUXNWXU]H HNVSRUWX LQGHNV++,! GRĞZLDGF]DMąEDUG]RJáĊERNLHJR]DáDPDQLDHNVSRUWX
: NROHMQ\P NURNX DQDOL]\ ]EDGDP\ ZSá\Z VWRSQLD G\ZHUV\¿NDFML HNVSRUWX QD ]PLDQ\3.%L]ZHU\¿NXMHP\KLSRWH]Ċ ,PZ\ĪV]\SR]LRPRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHMW\P ZLĊNV]H]DJURĪHQLHZ\VWąSLHQLHPQHJDW\ZQ\FKV]RNyZ]HZQĊWU]Q\FKRUD]KLSRWH]Ċ ,PZ\ĪV]\SR]LRPG\ZHUV\¿NDFMLHNVSRUWXW\PPQLHMV]DZUDĪOLZRĞüJRVSRGDUNLQDQH JDW\ZQHV]RNL]HZQĊWU]QH 1DSRGVWDZLHSU]HSURZDG]RQ\FKREOLF]HĔPRĪHP\SRWZLHUG]LüSRSUDZQRĞüWH]\ ĪHNUDMHRZ\ĪV]HMRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHMUR]ZLMDMąVLĊV]\EFLHM>6DFKV:HUQHU )UDQNHO5RPHU %DOGZLQ)RUVOLG %DOGZLQ5REHUW1LFXG@:ODWDFK ±ĞUHGQLHWHPSRZ]URVWXUHDOQHJR3.%ZJUXSLHNUDMyZZ\QRVLáR :NUDMDFKRQDMQLĪV]\PXG]LDOHHNVSRUWXWRZDUyZZVWRVXQNXGR3.% ± WHP SRZ]URVWX3.%Z\QRVLáRLURVáRZUD]]H]ZLĊNV]HQLHPRWZDUWRĞFLDĪGR ZNUDMDFKZNWyU\FKXG]LDáHNVSRUWXZ3.%SU]HNUDF]Dá SRUWDEHOD
UMCS
720$6=%,$à2:Ą6 7DEHOD2WZDUWRĞüKDQGORZD XG]LDáHNVSRUWXWRZDUyZZ3.% LĞUHGQLHWHPSRZ]URVWX3.% ZODWDFK ±ZJUXSLHNUDMyZ Z (NVSRUW3.% ± ± ± ! :]URVW3.% ħUyGáR REOLF]HQLDZáDVQHQDSRGVWDZLH>81&7$'@ 1DOHĪ\]DGDüS\WDQLHZMDNLVSRVyEZ\ĪV]DRWZDUWRĞüKDQGORZDZSá\ZDQDWHPSR Z]URVWX 3.% Z ODWDFK GHNRQLXQNWXU\: WDEHOL ]DSUH]HQWRZDQR GDQH VWDW\VW\F]QH NWyUHSRND]XMąĪHZODWDFK L NUDMHZZLĊNV]\PVWRSQLX]DDQJDĪRZDQHZZ\ PLDQĊKDQGORZą RZ\ĪV]\PXG]LDOHHNVSRUWXZ3.% UR]ZLMDá\VLĊZROQLHM OXE GRĞZLDGF]\á\JáĊEV]HJR]DáDPDQLDJRVSRGDUF]HJR QLĪJRVSRGDUNL]JOREDOL]RZD QHZPQLHMV]\PVWRSQLX:UGRPLQXMąF\PNDQDáHPWUDQVPLVMLV]RNyZJRVSRGDU F]\FKE\á\SRZLą]DQLD¿QDQVRZHDZPQLHMV]\PVWRSQLX±KDQGORZH1LHVWZLHUG]RQR ]DWHP]ZLą]NXPLĊG]\Z\ĪV]ąRWZDUWRĞFLąKDQGORZąDVSDGNLHP3.%
,VWQLHMąFH EDGDQLD HPSLU\F]QH Z\ND]Dá\ ĪH Z]URVW G\ZHUV\¿NDFML HNVSRUWX SR ]\W\ZQLHZSá\ZDQDG\QDPLNĊ3.%)$O0DUKXELZ\NRU]\VWXMąFSDQHO NUDMyZ RV]DFRZDáLĪZODWDFK ± NUDMHHNVSRUWXMąFHZLĊNV]ąOLF]EĊSURGXNWyZFKD UDNWHU\]RZDá\VLĊZ\ĪV]\PWHPSHPZ]URVWXJRVSRGDUF]HJR>$O0DUKXEL@3R GREQH Z\QLNL X]\VNDOL 05$JRVLQ 5$OYDUH] & %UDYR2UWHJD >$JRVLQ$OYDUH] %UDYR2UWHJD @RUD]HNVSHUFL81'3ZRSXEOLNRZDQ\PZUUDSRUFLH>81'3 V±@&]\MHGQDNZLĊNV]H]UyĪQLFRZDQLHHNVSRUWXáDJRG]LVNXWNLQHJDW\Z Q\FK V]RNyZ ]HZQĊWU]Q\FK" 3RGF]DV ZHU\¿NDFML KLSRWH]\ Z\ND]DOLĞP\ ĪH QLĪV]D NRQFHQWUDFMDHNVSRUWXSR]\W\ZQLHZSá\ZDQDMHJRG\QDPLNĊZRNUHVLHVSRZROQLHQLD 7DEHOD7HPSRZ]URVWXZDUWRĞFLHNVSRUWXWRZDUyZZ]DOHĪQRĞFLRGSR]LRPXNRQFHQWUDFMLHNVSRUWX PLHU]RQHJRLQGHNVHP+HU¿QGDKOD±+LUVFKPDQD ++, Z ++, 7HPSRZ]URVWXHNVSRUWXWRZDUyZ ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± 8ZDJD ZQDZLDVDFKSRGDQROLF]EĊNUDMyZQDOHĪąF\FKGRSU]HG]LDáX ħUyGáR REOLF]HQLDZáDVQHQDSRGVWDZLH>81&7$'@
UMCS
27:$572ĝû+$1'/2:$,'<:(56<),.$&-$(.632578$:=5267*2632'$5&=<«
JRVSRGDUF]HJR3RQDGWRSR]\W\ZQLH]ZHU\¿NRZDQRKLSRWH]Ċ:\QLND]WHJRLĪNUD MH R PQLHMV]HM NRQFHQWUDFML HNVSRUWX L QLĪV]HM RWZDUWRĞFL SRZLQQ\ VRELH OHSLHM UDG]Lü ]NU\]\VHPJRVSRGDUF]\P:WDEHOL]DZDUWRGDQHSRND]XMąFHĞUHGQLHWHPSRZ]URVWX UHDOQHJR3.%Z]DOHĪQRĞFLRGVWRSQLDNRQFHQWUDFMLHNVSRUWXLRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHM 7DEHODĝUHGQLHWHPSRZ]URVWXUHDOQHJR3.%Z]DOHĪQRĞFLRGVWRSQLDNRQFHQWUDFMLHNVSRUWXLRWZDUWRĞFL KDQGORZHMZURNX L Z (NVSRUW 3.% ++, ± ± ± ! ± ± ± ! ± ± ± ! ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ! ± ± 8ZDJD ZQDZLDVDFKSRGDQROLF]EĊNUDMyZQDOHĪąF\FKGRSU]HG]LDáX ħUyGáR REOLF]HQLDZáDVQHQDSRGVWDZLHGDQ\FK>81&7$'@ 1D SRGVWDZLH X]\VNDQ\FK Z\QLNyZ PRĪHP\ VIRUPXáRZDü QDVWĊSXMąFH ZQLRVNL :NDĪG\P]DQDOL]RZDQ\FKODWQDMJRUV]HZ\QLNLX]\VNDá\NUDMHRQLVNLHMNRQFHQWUD FMLHNVSRUWX ++,± LEDUG]RZ\VRNLHMRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHM SRZ\ĪHM :JUXSLHWHM]QDOD]á\VLĊ%HOJLD0DOH]MD+RQJNRQJDZURNX UyZQLHĪ:ĊJU\ L6áRZDFMD3RS\W]DJUDQLF]Q\VWDQRZLáZW\FKNUDMDFKLVWRWQąF]ĊĞüSRS\WX¿QDOQHJR DMHJR]DáDPDQLHQLHPRJáRE\üVNRPSHQVRZDQHZ\ĪV]\P]UyĪQLFRZDQLHPVWUXNWXU\ 7DEHOD2WZDUWRĞüKDQGORZD XG]LDáHNVSRUWXWRZDUyZZ3.% LĞUHGQLHWHPSRZ]URVWX3.% ZODWDFK L ZJUXSLHNUDMyZ Z (NVSRUW3.% 7HPSRZ]URVWX3.% ± ± ± ± ± ± ! ± 8ZDJD ZQDZLDVDFKSRGDQROLF]EĊNUDMyZQDOHĪąF\FKGRSU]HG]LDáX ħUyGáR REOLF]HQLDZáDVQHQDSRGVWDZLH>81&7$'@
UMCS
720$6=%,$à2:Ą6 HNVSRUWX:V\WXDFMLRJyOQRĞZLDWRZHJR]DáDPDQLDJRVSRGDUF]HJRZ\ĪV]DG\ZHUV\¿ND FMDZ\PLDQ\KDQGORZHMZQLHZLHONLPVWRSQLXFKURQLáDMHSU]HGQHJDW\ZQ\PLVNXWNDPL NU\]\VX 1DMZ\ĪHMUR]ZLQLĊWHNUDMHZ]QDNRPLWHMZLĊNV]RĞFL]QDOD]á\VLĊZJUXSLHRQDMQLĪ V]HMNRQFHQWUDFMLHNVSRUWXUyĪQLá\VLĊQDWRPLDVWLVWRWQLHSRGZ]JOĊGHPVWRSQLDRWZDU WRĞFLKDQGORZHM=Z\MąWNLHP.RUHL3RáXGQLRZHMZV]\VWNLHNUDMHGRĞZLDGF]\á\ZURNX VSDGNXUHDOQHJR3.%DZODWDFK LVSRZROQLHQLDWHPSDMHJRZ]URVWX =UyĪQLFRZDQ\RND]DáVLĊMHGQDNZSá\ZVWRSQLDRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHMQDVNDOĊ]DáDPD QLDJRVSRGDUF]HJR:URNX LWHPSRZ]URVWX3.%E\áRZSURVWSURSRUFMR QDOQHGRXG]LDáXHNVSRUWXZ3.% SRUWDEHOD 1DMV]\EFLHMUR]ZLMDá\VLĊQDMEDUG]LHM RWZDUWHKDQGORZRNUDMHFRPRĪHZ\QLNDü]UDF]HMUHJLRQDOQHJRQLĪJOREDOQHJR]DVLĊJX VSRZROQLHQLDRUD]RJUDQLF]RQHJRJáyZQLHGRSRZLą]DĔ¿QDQVRZ\FKPHFKDQL]PXSU]H QRV]HQLDNU\]\VX3RGF]DVNU\]\VXURNX ZUD]]HZ]URVWHPRWZDUWRĞFL]ZLĊNV]DáD VLĊ SRGDWQRĞü NUDMX QD QHJDW\ZQH V]RNL JRVSRGDUF]H NWyU\FK QLH áDJRG]LáR Z\VRNLH ]UyĪQLFRZDQLHVWUXNWXU\HNVSRUWX SRUWDEHOD 1LHFRRGPLHQQLHNV]WDáWRZDáDVLĊG\QDPLNDZ]URVWXUHDOQHJR3.%NUDMyZUR]ZLMD MąF\FKVLĊ0LPRSRGREQHJRVWRSQLDRWZDUWRĞFLLNRQFHQWUDFMLHNVSRUWXMDNZSU]\SDGNX RSLVDQ\FKZF]HĞQLHMNUDMyZUR]ZLQLĊW\FKJRVSRGDUF]RQLHVWDQRZLá\RQHKRPRJHQLF] QHMJUXS\:URNX NUDMHVáDELHMUR]ZLQLĊWHQLHGRĞZLDGF]\á\WDNJáĊERNLHJR]DáD PDQLDMDNNUDMH2(&'6WDáRVLĊWDN]HZ]JOĊGXQDRGPLHQQąVWUXNWXUĊLFKHNVSRUWX ]GRPLQRZDQąSU]H]QLVNRSU]HWZRU]RQHLVáDER]DDZDQVRZDQHWHFKQRORJLF]QLHSURGXN W\ JáyZQLH VXURZFH L PHWDOH PLHGĨ DOXPLQLXP NROWDQ NDV\WHU\W NWyUH MHGQDN Vą Z\NRU]\VW\ZDQHZQRZRF]HVQ\FKSU]HP\VáDFKRUD]FHFKXMąFHVLĊQLVNąGRFKRGRZą HODVW\F]QRĞFLąSRS\WXSURGXNW\VSRĪ\ZF]H 2VREQHJRNRPHQWDU]DZ\PDJDMąZ\QLNLQDMOLF]QLHMV]HMJUXS\NUDMyZVNáDGDMąFHM VLĊ]JRVSRGDUHNRĞUHGQLPSR]LRPLHG\ZHUV\¿NDFMLHNVSRUWX ZVNDĨQLN++,PLHV] F]ąF\VLĊZSU]HG]LDOHRG± LXG]LDOHHNVSRUWXQLHSU]HNUDF]DMąF\P3.% =QDOD]á\VLĊZQLHMSUDZLHZV]\VWNLHNUDMH]DOLF]DQHGRQDMVáDELHMUR]ZLQLĊW\FKNWyU\FK 31%SHUFDSLWDQLHSU]HNUDF]D GRODUyZUR]ZLMDMąFHVLĊJRVSRGDUNL$IU\NLL$PHU\ NLĝURGNRZHMRUD]5RVMD1RUZHJLDL,]UDHO(NVSRUWZ\PLHQLRQ\FKNUDMyZZSU]HZD ĪDMąFHMF]ĊĞFLVNáDGDVLĊ]SURGXNWyZQLHSU]HWZRU]RQ\FKF]ĊVWRPDMąF\FKVWUDWHJLF]QH ]QDF]HQLHGODUR]ZRMXJRVSRGDUNLĞZLDWRZHM URSDQDIWRZDJD]]LHPQ\ OXENRQNUHW QHMJDáĊ]LSU]HP\VáX PHWDOHSyáV]ODFKHWQHLV]ODFKHWQHSLHUZLDVWNLSURPLHQLRWZyUF]H SU]\SUDZ\ 3U]HELHJ F\NOX NRQLXQNWXUDOQHJR W\FK NUDMyZ E\á VLOQLH X]DOHĪQLRQ\ RG WHQGHQFMLLQÀDF\MQ\FKZJRVSRGDUFHĞZLDWRZHM]ZáDV]F]DSRGF]DV]DáDPDQLDZURNX ȱ'XĪHVSDGNLUHDOQHJR3.%]DQRWRZDá\ZW\PURNXNUDMHHNVSRUWXMąFHURSĊQDI WRZąLJD]]LHPQ\ 5RVMD1RUZHJLD FRPRĪHVWDQRZLüHIHNWSURFHQWRZHJRVSDGNX FHQVXURZFyZHQHUJHW\F]Q\FK>:72V@1DWRPLDVWZ\VRNLZ]URVWJRVSR GDUF]\FDáHMJUXS\NUDMyZXWU]\PDáVLĊZURNX G]LĊNLUHODW\ZQLHVWDELOQ\PFHQRP PHWDOLNRORURZ\FKLWHNVW\OLyZ=DWHPNOXF]RZ\PF]\QQLNLHPáDJRG]ąF\PVNXWNLNU\ ]\VXE\áDWXWDMNRU]\VWQDVWUXNWXUDSU]HGPLRWRZDHNVSRUWXDQLHVWRSLHĔMHJR]UyĪQLFR ZDQLDF]\WHĪSR]LRPRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHM
UMCS
27:$572ĝû+$1'/2:$,'<:(56<),.$&-$(.632578$:=5267*2632'$5&=<«
=DNRĔF]HQLH
3U]HSURZDG]RQD DQDOL]D VWDQRZL SRGVWDZĊ GR VIRUPXáRZDQLD NLONX ]DVDGQLF]\FK ZQLRVNyZ3RSLHUZV]HRGSRáRZ\ODW PRĪHP\REVHUZRZDüZ\UDĨQ\Z]URVWRWZDU WRĞFLKDQGORZHMV]F]HJyOQLHZJUXSLHNUDMyZUR]ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊMDNUyZQLHĪ]MDZLVNR NRQZHUJHQFMLSRGZ]JOĊGHPXG]LDáXHNVSRUWXWRZDUyZZ3.%3RQDGWRVWRSLHĔRWZDU WRĞFL KDQGORZHM FKDUDNWHU\]RZDá VLĊ VLOQą SURF\NOLF]QRĞFLą 5yVá Z ODWDFK RĪ\ZLHQLD JRVSRGDUF]HJRL]PQLHMV]DáVLĊZRNUHVDFKNU\]\VyZ 3RGUXJLHZODWDFK ±QDVWąSLáZ]URVWNRQFHQWUDFMLHNVSRUWXNUDMyZUR] ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊQDWRPLDVW]MDZLVNRWDNLHQLHZ\VWĊSRZDáRZSU]\SDGNXNUDMyZUR]ZL QLĊW\FKJRVSRGDUF]R.RQFHQWUDFMDHNVSRUWXNUDMyZUR]ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊE\áDZ\UDĨQLH VNRUHORZDQD]G\QDPLNą3.%±URVáDZRNUHVDFK]DáDPDQLDJRVSRGDUF]HJRLPDODáD ZODWDFKGREUHMNRQLXQNWXU\:JUXSLHNUDMyZUR]ZLQLĊW\FK]DOHĪQRĞFLWDNLHQLHZ\ VWĊSRZDá\ 3RWU]HFLHZODWDFKGHNRQLXQNWXU\LNU\]\VyZJRVSRGDUF]\FK G\QDPLND HNVSRUWX SR]RVWDZDáD VLOQLH SRZLą]DQD ]H VWRSQLHP MHJR NRQFHQWUDFML ,P Z\ĪV]DE\áDNRQFHQWUDFMDW\PPQLHMV]HWHPSRZ]URVWXHNVSRUWXDZURNX ±W\P ZLĊNV]H]DáDPDQLHZ\PLDQ\KDQGORZHM3RWZLHUG]RQD]DWHP]RVWDáDKLSRWH]DĪHZ]URVW VWRSQLDG\ZHUV\¿NDFMLHNVSRUWXSR]ZDOD]áDJRG]LüVNDOĊMHJR]DáDPDQLD
3RF]ZDUWHZODWDFK ±NUDMHRZ\ĪV]HMRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHMUR]ZLMDá\VLĊ V]\EFLHM-HGQDNZRNUHVDFK]DáDPDQLDJRVSRGDUF]HJR NUDMH]Z\ĪV]\P XG]LDáHP HNVSRUWX Z 3.% GRĞZLDGF]\á\ ZLĊNV]\FK VSDGNyZ 3.%: URNX ]H Z]JOĊGXQDLQQ\PHFKDQL]PSU]HQRV]HQLDNU\]\VX]DOHĪQRĞFLWDNLHMQLHVWZLHUG]RQR
3R SLąWH Z RNUHVDFK GHNRQLXQNWXU\ QDMEDUG]LHM ]DJURĪRQH SU]HQRV]HQLHP ]DJUD QLF]Q\FKV]RNyZJRVSRGDUF]\FKRND]Dá\VLĊNUDMHRQDMZ\ĪV]HMRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHM QLH]DOHĪQLH RG VWRSQLD NRQFHQWUDFML LFK HNVSRUWX .UDMH UR]ZLQLĊWH JRVSRGDUF]R FKD UDNWHU\]RZDá\VLĊZ\VRNąG\ZHUV\¿NDFMąHNVSRUWXDVNDODVSDGNX3.%ZURNX E\áDZSURVWSURSRUFMRQDOQDGRVWRSQLDRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHM1DWRPLDVWZODWDFK LV]\EFLHMUR]ZLMDá\VLĊNUDMHRZ\ĪV]HMRWZDUWRĞFLKDQGORZHM7HPSRZ]URVWX3.% NUDMyZ UR]ZLMDMąF\FK VLĊ Z PQLHMV]\P VWRSQLX ]DOHĪDáR RG XG]LDáX HNVSRUWX Z 3.% LVWRSQLDNRQFHQWUDFMLHNVSRUWXDJáyZQLHRGWHQGHQFMLLQÀDF\MQ\FKLVWUXNWXU\SU]HG PLRWRZHMLHNVSRUWX
%LEOLRJUD¿D
$JRVLQ 05$OYDUH] 5 %UDYR2UWHJD & 'HWHUPLQDQWV RI ([SRUW 'LYHUVL¿FDWLRQ DURXQG WKH
:RUOG ±³6HULH'RFXPHQWRVGH7UDEDMR´QR $O0DUKXEL) ([SRUWGLYHUVL¿FDWLRQDQGJURZWK DQHPSLULFDOLQYHVWLJDWLRQ³$SSOLHG(FRQRPLFV /HWWHUV´YROQR V ± %DOGZLQ5()RUVOLG5 7UDGHOLEHUDOLVDWLRQDQGHQGRJHQRXVJURZWK$TWKHRU\DSSURDFK³-RXUQDO RI,QWHUQDWLRQDO(FRQRPLFV´YROLVVXH %DOGZLQ5(5REHUW1LFXG) 7UDGHDQGJURZWKZLWKKHWHURJHQHRXV¿UPV³-RXUQDORI,QWHUQDWLR QDO(FRQRPLFV´YROLVVXH
UMCS
720$6=%,$à2:Ą6 %ULJXJOLR/ 7KH9XOQHUDELOLW\,QGH[DQG6PDOO,VODQG'HYHORSLQJ6WDWHV $5HYLHZRI&RQFHSWXDO DQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO,VVXHV3DSHUSUHSDUHGIRUWKH$,065HJLRQDO3UHSDUDWRU\0HHWLQJRQWKH7HQ<HDU 5HYLHZRIWKH%DUEDGRV3URJUDPPHRI$FWLRQ±6HSWHPEHU3UDLD&DSH9HUGH 'ROODU'.UDD\$ 7UDGHJURZWKDQGSRYHUW\³(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO´YRO (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ 4XDUWHUO\5HSRUWRQWKH(XUR$UHDYROQR )UDQNHO-$5RPHU' 'RHVWUDGHFDXVHJURZWK"³$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ´YRO QR *LOHV-$:LOOLDPV&/ ([SRUWOHGJURZWK DVXUYH\RIWKHHPSLULFDOOLWHUDWXUHDQGVRPHQRQ FDXVDOLW\UHVXOWV3DUW³-RXUQDORI,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UDGHDQG(FRQRPLF'HYHORSPHQW´YRO QR +DUULVRQ$5RGUtJXH]&ODUH$ 7UDGH)RUHLJQ,QYHVWPHQWDQG3ROLF\IRU'HYHORSLQJ&RXQWULHV >Z @ 5RGULN ' 5RVHQ]ZHLJ 05 HGV +DQGERRN RI 'HYHORSPHQW (FRQRPLFV YRO 1RUWK+ROODQG 2[IRUGDQG$PVWHUGDP 6DFKV-:HUQHU$0 (FRQRPLFUHIRUPDQGSURFHVVRIJOREDOLQWHJUDWLRQ³%URRNLQJV3DSHUVRQ (FRQRPLF$FWLYLW\´QR 81&7$' +DQGERRNRIVWDWLVWLFV 81&7$' 81&7$'6WDWKWWS XQFWDGVWDWXQFWDGRUJ 81'3 7RZDUGV+XPDQ5HVLOLHQFH 6XVWDLQLQJ0'*3URJUHVVLQDQ$JHRI(FRQRPLF8QFHUWDLQW\ :72 :RUOG7UDGH5HSRUW 7UDGHRSHQQHVVH[SRUWGLYHUVL¿FDWLRQDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWKLQWKH\HDUV ± 7KLVSDSHUDGGUHVVHVWKHPHFKDQLVPVE\ZKLFKWUDGHRSHQQHVVDQGH[SRUWFRQFHQWUDWLRQDIIHFWHFRQRPLF JURZWKLQWKH\HDUV ±7KHHIIHFWRIRSHQQHVVRQJURZWKYRODWLOLW\YDULHVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHH[WHQWRI H[SRUWFRQFHQWUDWLRQ([SRUWGLYHUVL¿FDWLRQSOD\VDQLPSRUWDQWUROHLQVKLHOGLQJDQHFRQRP\DJDLQVWWKHLPSDFW RIHFRQRPLFVKRFNV
