• Nie Znaleziono Wyników

Andrzej Jędruchniewicz – Struktura cen w polskim cyklu gospodarczym. Faza wzrostu

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Andrzej Jędruchniewicz – Struktura cen w polskim cyklu gospodarczym. Faza wzrostu"

Copied!
20
0
0

Pełen tekst

(1)

Struktura cen w polskim cyklu gospodarczym.

Faza wzrostu

!"#$%&'()*#$+,-".&/.,%0

12#&342"56(77(82'2(9:79($;((<22=,&>?@/2"56(A(/$%&B".2(9:79($;

Streszczenie

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

0(([%=@42( \4I/"2( \@3>@#2$3?/2( ].&'3=.&G@J( ]5#%.24( 12+=( Z=@"@8.,%"5,-J( ^2?&#$2( Z=@"@8..( .( _@D.?5=.( \@3>@#2$,%&'S( &`82.D6('&#$+,-".&/.,%a@9;>D;

(2)

12&34567

]( G@3>@#2$,&( /@D"@$5"=@/&'( ,&"5( @#G$5/2'F( #&,5#+'F,F( $@D*( /( $&G+D@/2".+( >$@,&3I/( &=@"@-8.,%"5,-;( b"E@$8+'F( >$%&#&( /3%53?=.8( @( ?58J( '2=.&( #%.242".2( >@/."".( >@#&'8@/2M( +,%&3?".,5( $5"=+J( 2L5( >$%5"@3.45( .8( '2=( "2'/.*=3%&( =@$%5B,.;( ]3>I4,%&3"2( G@3>@#2$=2( ,-2$2=?&$5%+'&( 3.*( ,.FG458(/%$@3?&8(,&"(/.*=3%@B,.(#IL$(.(+34+G;(c$+GF('&'(,&,-F('&3?(>@#D&G2".&(,5=D.,%"58(/2-2-".@8;(cD2?&G@(#5"28.=2(,&"(/(,5=D+(=@".+"=?+$2D"58(%2'8+'&(/2K"&(8.&'3,&(/(?&@$.2,-(3%=I4( &=@"@8.,%"5,-;( )&#"F( %( ".,-( '&3?( 3%=@42( 2+3?$.2,=2;( Z=@"@8.B,.( $&>$&%&"?+'F,5( ?*( 3%=@4*( >@#-=$&BD2'F(%"2,%&".&(-&?&$@G&".,%"&G@(=2>.?24+(@$2%(+>45/+(,%23+(#D2(=3%?24?@/2".2(3.*(,&"(#IL$( /(,5=D+(=@".+"=?+$2D"58;(

(C&D&8( @>$2,@/2".2( '&3?( /&$5E.=2,'2( -.>@?&%5( /5".=2'F,&'( %( ?&@$..( ,5=D+( =@".+"=?+$2D"&G@( 3%=@45( 2+3?$.2,=.&';( d.>@?&%2( ?2( 8I/.J( K&( &=3>2"35/"2( >@D.?5=2( >.&".*K"2J( =?I$&'( >@,%F?=@/58( 3=+?=.&8('&3?(/%$@3?(>@#2K5(>.&".F#%2J(/>45/2("2(%8.2"*(3?$+=?+$5(,&"(/(G@3>@#2$,&;(]&(/%$@-3?@/&'(E2%.&(,5=D+(,&"5(#IL$(/5?/2$%2"5,-(/(3&=?@$2,-(".&%/.F%2"5,-(L&%>@B$&#".@(%&(3?$+=?+$F( /5#2?=I/(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-J(3F(/5K3%&(/(3?@3+"=+(#@(,&"(?@/2$I/(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-;

(]3>I4,%&B".&(&=@"@8.B,.(#@(/&$5E.=2,'.(-.>@?&%(3?@3+'F(%($&G+45(3=@8>D.=@/2"&(8@#&D&(&=@-"@8&?$5,%"&;( ].*=3%@BM( >$%&#3?2/.,.&D.( 3%=@45( 2+3?$.2,=.&'J( "2/.F%+'F,( #@( >@#&'B,.2( H.3&32J( 3>$%&,./.2(3.*(/5=@$%53?5/2".+(?5,-(8&?@#(/(L2#2".2,-(&=@"@8.,%"5,-(We@?-L2$#(9::TS(^/2-B".,=.(9::RO;(_@(>.&$/3%&J(/3=2%+'FJ(K&(@DL$%58.2(D.,%L2(#&,5%'.(D+#%.(%8.&$%2'F,5,-(#@($&2D.%2,'.( 3+L.&=?5/"5,-(,&DI/(?/@$%5(/.&D=F(%4@K@"@BM(.(/3>I4%2D&K"@BM(%'2/.3=;(b,-(82?&82?5,%"&(3E@$-82D.%@/2".&(@%"2,%2("2',%*B,.&'(>@8.'2".&(?2=(/.&D+(>$@,&3I/(#&,5%5'"5,-J(K&(3?/@$%@"&(8@#&D&( ".&/.&D&(82'F(/3>ID"&G@(%($%&,%5/.3?F(G@3>@#2$=F;(_@(#$+G.&J(f!+3?$.2,5g(/(2"2D.%.&(G@3>@#2$=.( @#$%+,2'F(=2?&G@$.&(%2G$&G@/2"&;(]5=@$%53?2".&(GD@L2D"5,-(/.&D=@B,.(@%"2,%2(+?$2?*(/.&D+(."E@$-82,'.( .3?@?"5,-( #D2( @,&"5( >$%5,%5"( .( >$%&L.&G+( /2-2Y( ,5=D.,%"5,-;( )&#"2=( ".&=?I$%5( $&>$&%&"-?2",.(?&'(3%=@45(=@$%53?2'F(/(3/@.,-(L2#2".2,-(%(8&?@#(&=@"@8&?$5,%"5,-;(h/2K2'FJ(K&(,%*BM(%( ".,-('&3?(3>I'"2(%(>2$2#5G82?&8(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'(W%@L;(^&&D&$(9::7S(i233&(9::AS(H+DD.G2"(9::AO;( _$%5'*?&( /( ".".&'3%58( @>$2,@/2".+( 8&?@#5( L2#2/,%&( 3F( %G@#"&( %( 8&?@#@D@G.,%"58( 3?2"@/.-3=.&8(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&';(<23?@3@/2"@(?+((8&?@#*(#&#+=,'.(@$2%(>@$I/"2".&(/3=2j".=I/(,&"J(2L5( @=$&BD.M(%8.2"5(3?$+=?+$5(,&"(/(@=$&32,-(/%$@3?@/5,-(,5=D+(G@3>@#2$,%&G@; (X=$&3(L2#2/,%5(@L&'8+'&(D2?2(9::9P9:77;()&3?(@"(/53?2$,%2'F,@(#4+G.J(2L5("2(>@#3?2/.&(>$%5-'*?&'(8&?@#5(8@K"2(L54@(/53%,%&GID".M(?$%5(/%$@3?@/&(E2%5(,5=D+(=@".+"=?+$2D"&G@(/(>@D3=.&'( G@3>@#2$,&; (]3%53?=.&(#2"&(/5=@$%53?2"&(/(@>$2,@/2".+(3F(/.&D=@B,.28.("2(=@".&,(=/2$?24I/;(_@,-@-#%F(%(>+LD.=2,'.(.(3?$@"(."?&$"&?@/5,-(>$%&#&(/3%53?=.8(\4I/"&G@(h$%*#+([?2?53?5,%"&G@J(2(?2=K&( 12$@#@/&G@(i2"=+(_@D3=.&G@;

82&9,:;&$,&$+<#45#$,=&>%+?,&*;'()&$,@")A&5,#<??&4+'#";&%)45<?%*'?,=

<G@#".&(%&(3%=@4F(2+3?$.2,=F(%8.2"5(,&"(.(>$@#+=,'.(3F(2"2D.%@/2"&(/($282,-(#/I,-(@#8.&"- "5,-(353?&8I/(8@"&?2$"5,-6(/(353?&8.&(@(3?24&'(.D@B,.(>.&".F#%2J("2',%*B,.&'(@>2$?58("2(3?2"#2$-#%.&(%4@?2J(@$2%(/(353?&8.&(>.&".F#%2(E.#+,'2$"&G@(.($&%&$/5(,%F3?=@/&'(WH.3&3(7RVQS(d25&=(7RAkS( 7RkTS(\2$$.3@"(9::7S(!"#&$3@"(9::RO;(

(3)

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l&"33@"( 7RRRS( c$@>J( ]@'?5"2( 9::7O;( i2"=( ,&"?$2D-"5J(+%"2'F,J(K&(>.&".F#%(82(G4I/".&(,-2$2=?&$(&"#@G&".,%"5J(/5=@$%53?+'&(3?@>*(>$@,&"?@/F('2=@( G4I/"5(."3?$+8&"?(3/@'&'(>@D.?5=.;(XL&,".&('&3?(@"2(=3%?24?@/2"2(>$%&#&(/3%53?=.8(%2(>@8@,F( @>&$2,'.(@?/2$?&G@($5"=+(W%@L;([42/.Y3=.J(X3.Y3=.(7RRTO;(cD2(f!+3?$.2=I/g("2?+$2D"2(3?@>2(>$@,&"-?@/2(/5".=2(%(>$&E&$&",'.J('2=F(82'F(D+#%.&(@#"@B".&(#@(#IL$(Wl@"(im-8`i2/&$=(7UR7O;()&3?(,&"F( +3?2D2"F("2(/@D"58($5"=+(>$%&%(/3%53?=.,-(=+>+'F,5,-(.(3>$%&#2'F,5,-(#@L$2(?&$2j".&'3%&(/(%2- 8.2"(%2(#@L$2(/(>$%53%4@B,.(We@?-L2$#(9::kO;(XL".K=2(3?@>5(>$@,&"?@/&'(L2"=+(,&"?$2D"&G@J(%G@#- ".&(%(=?I$F(%8.&".2(3.*(@>$@,&"?@/2".&(=$&#5?I/(/(L2"=2,-(=@8&$,5'"5,-J(%2,-*,2(>$%&#3.*L.@$-3?/2(#@(%2,.FG2".2(/.*=3%&'(.D@B,.(=$&#5?I/("2(."/&3?5,'&J(2(=@"3+8&"?I/(#@(%2=+>+(#IL$(.(+34+G( =@"3+8>,5'"5,-(W%@L;([42/.Y3=.(9:77S(c&8,%+=(.(.";(9:79O;(]&#4+G(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'(?$/24&(#@- L$2(=@"3+8>,5'"&("2D&K5(?$2=?@/2M(?2=(328@('2=(#@L$2(."/&3?5,5'"&(W[=@+3&"(9:77O;(cD2?&G@(%#&- ,5#@/2"2(/.*=3%@BM(=$&#5?I/(?$2=?@/2"2('&3?('2=(=$&#5?5("2(%2=+>(#IL$(=2>.?24@/5,-;(cD2(G4I/-"&G@("+$?+(&=@"@8..(/2K"2('&3?(?5D=@(%8.2"2(>@#2K5(>.&".F#%2J(%(=@D&.(#D2(f!+3?$.2=I/g(/2K"&( '&3?(?&K(8.&'3,&J(/(=?I$58(#@#2?=@/5(>.&".F#%(/,-@#%.(#@(G@3>@#2$=.;()&3?(?@(?%/;(&E&=?(C2"?.DD@"2( WC2"?.DD@"(7kTTS(d25&=(7RAkO;

(1@/@( /5=$&@/2"5( >.&".F#%( ?/@$%5( ?%/;( /58+3%@"&( @3%,%*#"@B,.J( ,%5D.( %23@L5( >.&".*K"&J( =?I$&(".&(/5".=2'F(%(#@L$@/@D"5,-(#&,5%'.(D+#%.(@(%/.*=3%&".+(@3%,%*#%2".2;(_@,%F?=@/&(%/.*=- 3%&".&(>@>5?+("2(>.&".F#%(/&(/%$@3?@/&'(E2%.&(,5=D+(=@".+"=?+$2D"&G@(".&($@%=42#2(3.*($I/"@- 8.&$".&("2(/3%53?=.&(3&=?@$5(/(G@3>@#2$,&J(2D&(=@",&"?$+'&(/(>&/"5,-(L$2"K2,-;(H2(?@(#&,5#+-'F,&(%"2,%&".&(#D2(?&@$..(,5=D+(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'J(@>2$?&'("2(?&@$..(=2>.?24+(3?/@$%@"&'(>$%&%(l@"( im-82`i2/&$=2(W7UR7O;(<G@#".&(%(>$@>@%5,'F(H&"G&$2(W7RU7O(/(G@3>@#2$,&(/53?*>+'F(#@L$2(".K- 3%&G@($%*#+(W=@"3+8>,5'"&O(@$2%(/5K3%&G@($%*#+(W>@B$&#".&OJ(=?I$&(34+KF(#@(>$@#+=,'.(#IL$(".K- 3%&G@($%*#+;(c@L$2(>@B$&#".&(".&(3F('&#"@$@#"&;(_@#%.24(#@=@"2"5('&3?(%&(/%GD*#+("2(/53?*>@/2-".&(#@L$2(/(?5>@/&'(3?$+=?+$%&(/5#2?=I/(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-;(e5"=@/2(/2$?@BM(#IL$(>@B$&#".,-( ?@(=2>.?24;!"#$%!&'!&('$%)!*+$%(*,-./0.1!&'/2-3#1!4)+!0*(52653#1!(*-7)0,)!#,'0'13-50#8'9!300.13! $:';.<!$)+3#,%.;0=!;.-#0=!-5.!'-#0=!;*(%'>-3!(.0,';#/<!/*,=!&(5#6$32+3'(-.!&(5.&3$)/=!6'+('1!,*-&3%*:';.1!Wd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n$8@8( >@%5-3=2".&("@/5,-(B$@#=I/("2(."/&3?5,'&;()&#"@,%&B".&("23?*>+'&(%/@D".&".&(,%*B,.(>$2,5(.(%.&8.(/5=@$%53?5/2"5,-( /( >$@#+=,'.( #IL$( =@"3+8>,5'"5,-( .( >$%&3+".*,.&( .,-( #@( >$@#+=,'.( #IL$( =2>.?24@/5,-;( cD2?&G@( ".&( >@/@#+'&( ?@( /%$@3?+(,&"(,%5"".=I/(>.&$/@?"5,-;([?@>".@/&(/5#4+K&".&(3?$+=?+$5(>$@#+=,'.(%2>&/".2(%"2,%"5(/%$@3?(/5#2'-"@B,.(+K5/2"5,-(,%5"".=I/J(?2=(K&(/(>$%53%4@B,.(G@3>@#2$=2(L*#%.&(/5?/2$%242(/.*,&'(#IL$(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-(>@( ".K3%5,-(".K(/,%&B".&'(,&"2,-(W%@L;(d+&$?2(#&([@?@(9::RJ(3;(9VTP9A9O;

(4)

#5(>$@#+=,'.J(,%5D.(3?@3+'F,(/.*,&'(&?2>I/(>@B$&#".,-;(?'<!@#!5:'@'0#!1#%'6.!&('6),-/3!&(';*65=!

6'!;32,$5.-7!#A#,%B;!'6!1#%'6!+#5&'>(#603-7<!/#$%!/#60.1!5!0*/;*@03#/$5.-7!3!0*/+*(653#/!A)06*-1#0%*40.-7!%;3#(65#C!;!-*:#/!%#'(33!&('6),-/3(Wl@"(im-8`i2/&$=(7UR7J(3;(9:S(?4+8;(!;);O;(_$%&'B,.&(

"2(L2$#%.&'(=2>.?24@,-4@""&(8&?@#5(@%"2,%2(/5#4+K&".&(,%23+(>$@#+=,'.;(</.*=3%2(3.*(?2=K&(,%23( @,%&=./2".2("2(/%$@3?(=@"3+8>,'.;

(Z=3>2"3'2( >.&".*K"2( 353?&8+( L2"=@/&G@( >$@/2#%.( #@( %8.2"( /( 3?$+=?+$%&( >$@#+=,'.( .( /( 3?$+=?+$%&( ,&";( 1@/5( >.&".F#%( >$%&#3.*L.@$3?/2( ."?&$>$&?+'F( '2=@( /%$@3?( $&D2,'.( @3%,%*#"@-B,.(#@(=@"3+8>,'.J(2(/.*,(%2,-*?*(#@(3?@3@/2".2(L2$#%.&'(=2>.?24@,-4@""5,-(8&?@#(/5?/2$%2".2;( cD2?&G@(/(G@3>@#2$,&(#@,-@#%.(#@(>@3%&$%2".2(@$2%(/5#4+K2".2(3?$+=?+$5(>$@#+=,'.;(\$2E.,%".&( >$@,&35(?&("2',%*B,.&'(3F(>$%&#3?2/.2"&(%2(>@8@,F(?$I'=F?I/(d25&=2(Wd25&=(7RAk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oF,%".&(>@3%&$%2".&(@$2%(/5-#4+K2".&(3?$+=?+$5(>$@#+=,'.(>$%&#3?2/.@"&('&3?('2=@(>@/3?2".&("@/&'(=$%5/&'(KP2; [,-&82?(7 [?$+=?+$2(>$@#+=,'.(2(/%$@3?(>@#2K5(>.&".F#%2 p$I#4@6(@>$2,@/2".&("2(>@#3?2/.&([=@+3&"(W9:77O; Czas 2 3 4 5 6 7 Produkcja Dobra konsumpcyjne KP2 KP1 1 Etapy pośrednie

(5)

1@/&( ."/&3?5,'&J( =?I$&( /5".=2'F( %( &=3>2"3'.( =$&#5?@/&'( 353?&8+( L2"=@/&G@J( 3>$2/.2'FJ( K&( >@,%F?=@/@(/%$23?2(>@>5?(G4I/".&("2(#@L$2(=2>.?24@/&(%"2'#+'F,&(3.*("2(&?2>2,-("2'L2$#%.&'(@#- D&G45,-(@#(=@"3+8>,'.;(e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e.,2$#@(We.,2$#@(7RTkS(d25&=(7RkTO;(X%"2,%2(@"( /%$@3?(>42,($&2D"5,-J(2(/.*,(=@3%?I/(/5?/2$%2".2;(ZE&=?(?&"(>$@/2#%.(#@(%/.*=3%&".2(>@>5?+("2( #@L$2(=2>.?24@/&J(G#5K(>$%&#3.*L.@$3?/2(%23?*>+'F(#$@K3%F(>$2,*(/%GD*#".&(?2Y3%58.(#@L$28.(=2->.?24@/58.;(_@/@#+'&(?@($I/".&K(/%$@3?(,&"("2(>@,%F?=@/5,-(&?2>2,-(>$@#+=,'.;(

]$2%( %&( /%$@3?&8( >$@#+=,'.( $@3"F( ,&"5( #IL$( /5?/2$%2"5,-( "2( =2K#58( '&'( &?2>.&;( cD2?&G@( f!+3?$.2,5g(>@#=$&BD2'FJ(K&(/(2"2D.%.&(,5=D+(".&(8@K"2(3=+>.2M(3.*("2(=2?&G@$.2,-(82=$@&=@"@-8.,%"5,-J(G#5K('2=@(/.&D=@B,.(GD@L2D"&(.(+B$&#".@"&(%2,.&8".2'F(>$2/#%./&(>$@,&35(%2,-@#%F,&( /(3&=?@$2,-(G@3>@#2$=.(WC@,-$2"(9:77O;(]3=2%+'FJ(K&(@E.,'2D"5(/3=2j".=(."ED2,'.J('2=.8('&3?(."#&=3( ,&"(?@/2$I/(.(+34+G(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-J(@$2%(.""&(/3=2j".=.(>$%&#3?2/.2'F,&(%8.2"5(@GID"&G@(>@- %.@8+(,&"(82'F(>@/2K"&(@G$2".,%&".2J(=?I$5,-(>$%&%/5,.*K&".&('&3?(".&8@KD./&J(G#5(,-,&(3.*(L2-#2M(%8.2"5($&D2,'.(,&"@/5,-;(_$%&#3?2/.,.&D&(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'(2"2D.%+'F(,&"5(/%GD*#"&J(,%5D.( $&D2,'&(>@8.*#%5(,&"28.(#IL$;()&3?(?@(@#/%@$@/2".&8($%&,%5/.3?&G@(%2,-@/2".2(>$%&#3.*L.@$,5J( =?I$&G@(."?&$&3+'&(%8.2"2(,&"5('&G@(#@L$2(/(3?@3+"=+(#@(%8.2"5(,&"(.""5,-(#IL$;( [,-&82?(9 <8.2"5(,&"(/&(/%$@3?@/&'(E2%.&(,5=D+( Czas Konsumpcja Dobra hurtowe Dobra produkcyjne Surowce Zmiana cen (%) 0

(6)

(]( >$%&,./.&Y3?/.&( #@( ?&G@J( ,@( ?/.&$#%F( 8@"&?2$5B,.J( >@#,%23( ,5=D+( ,&"5( ".&( %8.&".2'F( 3.*( /(>@#@L"58(?&8>.&;(b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c@?5,%5(?@(%/423%,%2(".&- /.&D=.,-(G@3>@#2$&=J(=?I$&(/(%"2,%"58(3?@>".+(%2D&KF(@#(GD@L2D"5,-(+/2$+"=@/2Y(&=@"@8.,%-"5,-;(H.8@(K&(>$%&%('2=.B(,%23(".&=?I$&(,%5"".=.(8@GF(%2=4I,2M(L2#2"F(3?$+=?+$*(,&"J(?@(@GID".&( $%&,%(L.@$F,(>$@,&35(&=@"@8.,%"&(%2>@,%F?=@/2"&(/%$@3?&8(>@#2K5(>.&".F#%2(L*#F(>$@/2#%.M(#@( /5K3%&'(#5"28.=.(,&"(#IL$(>@B$&#".,-(".K(E."2D"5,-;

(_@?/.&$#%2'F( ?@( L2#2".2( >$%&>$@/2#%@"&( "2( B/.&,.&;( 12',%*B,.&'( 2"2D.%@/2"&( L545( %8.2"5( ,&"( /( @=$&3.&( ].&D=.&G@( ^$5%53+( /( h[!;( i2#2".2( ?2=.&( >$%&>$@/2#%.D.( 8;.";6( e@?-L2$#( W9:7:OJ( e@LL."3(W7RVQOJ(!"#&$3@"(W7RkRO(@$2%(H.DD3(W7RVAO;(](3?+#.2,-("2#(%8.2"28.(,&"(/5=@$%53?5/2- "@($I/".&K("@/3%&(#2"&;(c@(G4I/"5,-(2+?@$I/J(=?I$%5(>$%&#3?2/.D.(/5".=.(3/@.,-(L2#2Y(&8>.-$5,%"5,-J("2D&K5(%2D.,%5M6(]2."-@+3&2(W7RU9OJ(i+?@32(W7RRVOJ(d+G-&32(W7RRkO(@$2%([=@+3&"2(W9:77O;( !"2D.%5(?5,-((&=@"@8.3?I/(>@?/.&$#%2'F(>$2/.#4@/@BMJ(=?I$F(@>.3+'&(Z3?&5(W7RTRJ(3;(7:QP7:TO6(Ce-0.!7)(%';#!('$0=!$3403#/!03@!-#0.!6#%*43-50#D![…]!"#@#43!-7'653!'!-#0.!7)(%';#<!%'!;.6*/#!$32<!@#!31! ;32,$5*!/#$%!'64#8:'>E!'6!,'0$)1#0%*<!%.1!$3403#/$5.!3!$5.+$5.!/#$%!;5('$%!-#0D!F#0.!$)(';-B;!&'6-0'$5=!$32!;.@#/!03@!-#0.!&B:&('6),%B;<!-#0.!5*>!%.-7!'$%*%03-7!;.@#/!03@!8'%';.-7!6B+(!,'0$)1&-/3;

(X3?2?".F( ,%*B,.F( E2%5( /%$@3?@/&'( /( ,5=D+( &=@"@8.,%"58( '&3?( L@@8;( ]( ,24&'( E2%.&( ,&"5( %2-,-@/+'F( 3.*( ?2=J( '2=( >$%&#3?2/.@"@( "2( 3,-&82,.&( 9J( '&#"2=( >@#,%23( L@@8+( >$@,&3( ?&"( >$%&L.&-G2( ."2,%&';( C&"5( #IL$( =@"3+8>,5'"5,-( /%$23?2'F( 3%5L,.&'( ".K( ,&"5( ,%5"".=I/( >.&$/@?"5,-( W\2$$.3@"(9::7O;()&3?(?@(3>@/@#@/2"&(@##%.245/2".&8(?$%&,-(,%5"".=I/6(_@(>.&$/3%&J($@3"F(#@-,-@#5(/42B,.,.&D.(>$2,5(.(%.&8.J(>$%5(".&%8.&".@"&'(>$&E&$&",'.(,@(#@(=@"3+8>,'.(.(@3%,%*#"@B,.;( _@(#$+G.&("23?*>+'&(@=$&3@/&(%8".&'3%&".&(?&8>2(>$@#+=,'.("@/5,-(#IL$(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-;(]5-".=2(?@(%(>$%&8.&3%,%&".2(3.*(>.&$/@?"5,-(,%5"".=I/(/5?/I$,%5,-(%(&?2>I/(>$@#+=,'.(LD.K3%5,-( =@"3+8&"?2(#@(&?2>I/(L2$#%.&'(@#(".&G@(@#D&G45,-;()&3?(?@(3=+?=.&8(%/.*=3%&".2(>@>5?+(>$%&#-3.*L.@$3?/("2(>$2,*(.(%.&8.*J(=?I$5(82(j$I#4@(/(%8.2"2,-(3?$+=?+$5(>$@#+=,'.;(_@(?$%&,.&($@3"F( 3%?+,%"&(%53=.(>$%&#3.*L.@$3?/("2(>@,%F?=@/5,-(&?2>2,-(/5?/2$%2".2;(h/%GD*#".2".&(/($2,-+"- =+(=3.*G@/58(=@3%?I/(-.3?@$5,%"5,-(@$2%(>$%5,-@#I/(D.,%@"5,-(/(,&"2,-(L.&KF,5,-(>@/@#+-'&J(K&(@3.FG2'F(@"&(%"2,%"&J(2D&(3%?+,%"&(%53=.;(<4+#%&".&(B/.&?"&'(35?+2,'.(&=@"@8.,%"&'(3=42".2( >$%&#3.*L.@$,I/(#@(/5#2/2".2(,%*B,.(%53=I/("2(#@L$2(=@"3+8>,5'"&(Wd+&$?2(#&([@?@(9::RO;

B2&C<;5;'%&?(#D*?#$,=&5,#<??&7?,:?E@+%

](&=@"@8..(%/.F%&=(8.*#%5(%8.2"28.(.D@B,.(>.&".F#%2(/(G@3>@#2$,&(2(%8.2"28.(>@%.@8+(,&"( "2',%*B,.&'(>$%&#3?2/.2"5('&3?(%2(>@8@,F(.D@B,.@/&'(?&@$..(>.&".F#%2;()&'(82?&82?5,%"2(/&$3'2(?@( $I/"2".&(q.3-&$2(W7R77O;(\4I/"F(?&%F(?&'(?&@$..('&3?("&+?$2D"@BM(>.&".F#%2(/(#4+G.8(@=$&3.&;(_.&- ".F#%('&3?("&+?$2D"5J(=.&#5(%8.2"5('&G@(>@#2K5(>$@/2#%F(/54F,%".&(#@(>$@>@$,'@"2D"&G@(#@3?@3@-/2".2(3.*(/.&D=@B,.("@8."2D"5,-(.(".&(/>45/2'F("2($&2D"&(%8.&""&(&=@"@8.,%"&J('2=(>$@#+=,'2J( L&%$@L@,.&(,%5($&2D"5(=+$3(/2D+?@/5(Wi$%@%2`i$%&%."2(.(.";(9::9O;(X%"2,%2(?@J(K&(&G%@G&".,%"5(

(7)

/%$@3?(.D@B,.(>.&".F#%2(/>45/2(?5D=@("2(>@%.@8(,&";([%5L=@BM(@L.&G+(>.&".F#%2(@$2%($&2D"2(>$@-#+=,'2(3F(".&%8.&""&(/%GD*#&8(%8.2"(>@#2K5(>.&".F#%2;( (\4I/"58.(/3>I4,%&3"58.(3%=@428.(&=@"@8.,%"58.J(/(=?I$5,-(#@(2"2D.%5($&D2,'.(8.*#%5(>.&".F-#%&8(2(."ED2,'F(/5=@$%53?+'&(3.*(.D@B,.@/F(?&@$.*(>.&".F#%2J(3F6(8@"&?2$5%8(q$.&#82"2(.("@/2(3%=@42( =D235,%"2(r+,232(W%@L;(q$.&#82"J([,-/2$?%(7RAV2S(r+,23(7RU:O;(^$5?5,5(?&'(?&@$..(/5/@#%F(3.*("2',%*-B,.&'(%&(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'(@$2%(=&5"&3.%8+(W%@L;(^&5"&3(9::VS(H2"=./J(e@8&$(7RR7S(]@'?5"2(9:::O;(

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…] !I'/*;3*/=!$32!(B;03#@!513*0.!;#!;5*/#10.-7!$%'$)0,*-7!;.13*0.!&'13265.!(B@0.13!%';*(*-13!3!)$:)8*13D![…]!&3#03=65!03#!/#$%!0#)%(*40.!3!03#!-#-7)/#!$32!$%*:=!$3:=!0*+.;-5=D![…]!I3#03=65!/#$%! #4#1#0%#1!653*:*03*<!*!;32-!(B;03#@!-5.003,3#1!513*0(WH.3&3(9::kJ(3;(VT9J(VTkO; (_@#3?2/@/5(%2$%+?(f!+3?$.2=I/g(/%GD*#&8(.D@B,.@/&'(?&@$..(>.&".F#%2(#@?5,%5(>@34+G./2".2( 3.*(=@",&>,'F(=2>.?24+(@>$2,@/2"F(>$%&%(?&@$&?5=I/(3%=@45("&@=D235,%"&'J(CD2$=2(.(^".G-?2;(_@8.- '2(@"2(%"2,%&".&(,%23+(>$%5(?/@$%&".+(=2>.?24+(@$2%(+%"2'&J(K&(=2>.?24('&3?(-@8@G&".,%"58(E+"#+-3%&8(/(>$@,&3.&(>$@#+=,'.;(X%"2,%2(?@J(K&(3?$+=?+$2(>$@#+=,'.J(=?I$2(/($%&,%5/.3?@B,.(3=42#2(3.*( %(/.&D+(&?2>I/(@##2D@"5,-(/($IK"58(3?@>".+(@#(E."2D"5,-(#IL$(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-J(".&(82(%"2,%&- ".2(/(2"2D.%.&(%8.2"(/(,5=D+(=@".+"=?+$2D"58;(s&'(?&@$..(=2>.?24+(3%=@42(2+3?$.2,=2(>$%&,./3?2- /.2(3/@'F(?&@$.*J(=?I$2(>@#=$&BD2($@D*(,%23+(.(-&?&$@G&".,%"5,-(#IL$(=2>.?24@/5,-;(_$%5'*,.&(=@"-,&>,'.(CD2$=2(.(^".G-?2(+/5>+=D2(8&,-2".,%"5(.(82=$@&=@"@8.,%"5(,-2$2=?&$(?&@$..(.D@B,.@/&';( _@8.'2(3.*('&#"2=($@D*(#&,5%'.(>$%&#3.*L.@$,I/(@$2%(D&=,&/2K5(8.=$@&=@"@8.,%"&(3=+?=.(/%$@3?+( %23@L+(>.&".F#%2(#D2(3?$+=?+$5(>$@#+=,'.(Wd+&$?2(#&([@?@(9::RJ(3;(VRVO;(

(c$+G.( %2$%+?( "2/.F%+'&( #@( 85BD.( r@,=&t2J( K&( /%$@3?( >@#2K5( >.&".F#%2( >$@/2#%.( #@( >$@->@$,'@"2D"&G@(/%$@3?+ ,&"(/3%53?=.,-(#IL$(.(+34+G WiD2+G(9:::J(3;(QVO;(_$%5'*,.&(L&%,%23@/&'( .(L&%&?2>@/&'(3?$+=?+$5(>$@#+=,'.J(/(=?I$&'(/53?*>+'&(?5D=@(>@#%.24("2(#@L$2(."/&3?5,5'"&(@$2%( =@"3+8>,5'"&J( ".&( +8@KD./.2( /2K"&'( @L3&$/2,'.( .( 2"2D.%5( %8.2"( ,&"( /.&D+( #IL$( =2>.?24@/5,-( %($IK"5,-(L$2"K;([=+?=.&8(?&G@('&3?(L2#2".&(>$%&%(&=@"@8.3?I/(G4I/"&G@("+$?+(>$%&#&(/3%53?=.8( %8.2"(@GID"&G@(W>$%&,.*?"&G@O(>@%.@8+(,&"J(2(".&($&D2,'.(,&"@/5,-(/(G@3>@#2$,&;(]3>I4,%&B".&( /3=2j".=(@GID"&G@(>@%.@8(,&"(".&(#@?5,%5("2/&?(/3%53?=.,-(,&"J(2D&(3=+>.2(3.*(?5D=@("2(,&"2,-( #IL$(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-;(]>$2/#%.&(8@"&?2$5B,.(.("&@=D235,5($@%>2?$+'F(%2G2#".&".&(,&"(/%GD*#-"5,-(/(=$I?=.8(@=$&3.&J('&#"2=(?5D=@(3%=@42(2+3?$.2,=2("2#2'&(?58(,&"@8(.3?@?"F($2"G*J(8I/.F,( @(/53@=.,-J(2D&(?$+#"5,-(#@(%L2#2".2(3=+?=2,-(."ED2,'.(@$2%(?$/245,-(%8.2"2,-(,&"(/%GD*#"5,-( >@(%2=@Y,%&".+(,5=D+(=@".+"=?+$2D"&G@(Wd2%D.??(9::kO; (s$%&,.(%2$%+?(#@?5,%F,5(.D@B,.@/&'(?&@$..(>.&".F#%2(#@?5,%5(3%5L=@B,.(@L.&G+(>.&".F#%2;(^2?&- G@$.2(?2(/(2"2D.%@/2"&'(?&@$..('&3?(".&%2D&K"2(@#(%8.2"(>@#2K5(>.&".F#%2;(<8.&".2(3.*(>@#(/>45- /&8(,%5"".=I/(?&,-".,%"5,-(.(."3?5?+,'@"2D"5,-;(s2=.&(@##%.&D&".&(3%5L=@B,.(@L.&G+(@#(,%5"-".=I/(8@"&?2$"5,-(/5#2'&(3.*(".&%232#"&(.(".&(82(>@?/.&$#%&".2(/($%&,%5/.3?@B,.(G@3>@#2$,%&';( H.3&3( W7RVQO( +/2K2J( K&( >@'*,.&( ?@( ".&( 82( K2#"&G@( &=@"@8.,%"&G@( 3&"3+J( G#5K( ".&( />45/2( "2( #%.242".2('&#"@3?&=(G@3>@#2$,%5,-;(_@"2#?@(3%5L=@BM(@L.&G+(>.&".F#%2(8.&$%@"2('&3?(/(>&/"58( @=$&3.&J(2(,&"5(+3?2D2"&(3F(/(#2"58(8@8&",.&;

(8)

(C%/2$?5(>+"=?(=$5?5=.(?&@$..(.D@B,.@/&'(#@?5,%5(&E&=?+(C2"?.DD@"2;(](G@3>@#2$,&(@>$I,%(>@- %.@8+(&=3>2"3'.(>.&".*K"&'(/2K"&('&3?J(=?@(>.&$/3%5(+%53=24(#@#2?=@/5(>.&".F#%;(b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b""&( 3=+?=.( G@3>@#2$,%&( /53?F>.FJ( G#5( "@/5( >.&".F#%( >@'2-/.(3.*("2(>@,%F?=+(3?$+=?+$5(>$@#+=,'.J(2(%+>&4".&(.""&J(G#5("2'>.&$/(@?$%582'F(G@(=@"3+8&",.( W\2$$.3@"(9::7O; (_@#3+8@/2".&8(>$%&>$@/2#%@"&'(=$5?5=.(3F(34@/2(&=@"@8.3?5(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'(!"#&$3@"2( W7RkRJ(3;(k:Pk7O;(]&#4+G(".&G@(/%I$(?&@$&?5=I/(.D@B,.@/5,-(?@(>@/?2$%2".&(/(=I4=@6(>.&".F#%J(=$&- #5?(.(,&"5;()&#"F(%(/.&D=.,-(342L@B,.(.D@B,.@/&'(?&@$..(>.&".F#%2('&3?(3=4@""@BM(#@(@G$2".,%2".2(L2-#2Y("2#(E+"#28&"?2D"58.(,%5"".=28.(#%.242D"@B,.(G@3>@#2$,%&';(bD@B,.@/2(?&@$.2(>.&".F#%2('&3?( ".&?$2E"2;(1.&(8@K&85(>$%5'FM(@GID"&'(?&@$..(%232#".,%@(>.&".*K"&'(2".(/(@#".&3.&".+(#@(>@%.@8+( ,&"(?@/2$I/J(2".(/(@#".&3.&".+(#@(%8.2"(%2,-@#%F,5,-(/(,5=D+(=@".+"=?+$2D"58;

4. Cykl koniunkturalny i polityka monetarna w Polsce

^D235,%"5( ,5=D( %@3?24( %#&E.".@/2"5( >$%&%( i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i2$,%5=(.(.";(9::AO; (c@( /5%"2,%2".2( E2%( /%$@3?@/5,-( ,5=D+( =@".+"=?+$2D"&G@( /( _@D3,&( %@3?2".&( /5=@$%53?2"5( >$@#+=?(=$2'@/5(L$+??@;(s&"("2'/2K".&'3%5(/(G@3>@#2$,&(8.&$".=(>$@#+=,'.('&3?(3?@3@/2"5(>$%&%( /.&D+( &=@"@8.3?I/;( ]5%"2,%&".&( @=$&3I/( &=3>2"3'.( G@3>@#2$,%&'( /582G2( >$%5'*,.2( @=$&BD@"&'( 8&?@#5( L2#2Y( /2-2Y( ,5=D.,%"5,-;( c@( G4I/"5,-( 8&?@#( "2D&K5( %2D.,%5M6( L2#2".&( ?$&"#+( %8.2"( _^iJ(2"2D.%*(@#,-5D&Y(@#(>$@#+=,'.(>@?&",'2D"&'(@$2%(/5=@$%53?2".&(E.D?$I/J(">;(d@#$.,=2(.(_$&- 3,@??2J(i2u?&$(.(^."G2J(E.D?$+(>238@/@`>$%&>+3?@/&G@(C-$.3?.2"@(.(q.?%G&$2D#2;(](".".&'3%58(@>$2-,@/2".+(%@3?2".&(%23?@3@/2"2(8&?@#2(@>2$?2("2(?$&"#%.&(%8.2"(_^i;(F.,4#!;5('$%)!$=!',(#>4*0#!

;!%.1!&(5.&*6,)!+=6J!/*,'!'6-7.4#03*!;*(%'>-3!#1&3(.-50.-7!IKL!'6!'$5*-';*0.-7!;*(%'>-3!%(#0-6)<! +=6J! %#@! /*,'! […]! 513*0.! $%B&! ;5('$%)! (#*40#8'! &('6),%)! ,(*/';#8'! +()%%'! Wi2$,%5=J(

r+L.Y-3=.(9::RJ(3;(7TO;(<8.2"5(_^i(8@GF(L5M(?2=K&(@#"@3%@"&(#@(B$&#".&G@(?&8>2(/%$@3?+(Wq$.&#82"J( [,-/2$?%(7RAVLO;

(12'/.*=3%58(>$@LD&8&8(8&?@#5(?$&"#+('&3?(/5LI$(8.2$5(?$&"#+;(I';*@0.1!/#/!'8(*03-5#03#1!

/#$%!13265.!0313!&('+4#1!$5*-)0,)!&*(*1#%(B;!43033!%(#06)<!,%B(*!;!6)@.1!$%'&03)!6#-.6)/#!'!-7*-(*,%#(5#! ;.(B@03'0.-7! A*5! -.,43( Wi2$,%5=( 9:::P9::7J( 3;( TVO;( )2=@( >@#3?2/*( @=$&BD&".2( E2%( ,5=D+(

(9)

/( _@D3,&( >$%5'*?@( B$&#".F( @LD.,%@"F( %( ?$%&,-( ?$&"#I/6( $@,%"&G@J( #/+`( @$2%( ?$%5D&?".&G@;( s$&"#( $@,%"5(>$@/2#%.4L5(#@(%L5?(/,%&3"&G@(>@'2/.2".2(3.*(35G"24I/(@(%8.2".&(E2%5J(%(=@D&.(?$&"#(?$%5-D&?".(."E@$8@/24L5(%&(%L5?(#+K58(@>Ij".&".&8;(1.&=.&#5(/2$?@B,.(?$&"#+(#/+D&?".&G@(3F(LD.3=.&( /2$?@B,.@8( ?$&"#+( $@,%"&G@( D+L( ?$%5D&?".&G@;( )&3%,%&( /.*=3%&( @>Ij".&".2( /53?*>@/245L5( >$%5( /5=@$%53?2".+(B$&#".&G@(?&8>2(%8.2"(_^i(/(L2#2"58(@=$&3.&;(12(>@#3?2/.&(B$&#".&'(%(?$%&,-( ?$&"#I/(/(D2?2,-(9::9P9:77(%@3?245(/5%"2,%@"&("23?*>+'F,&(>&4"&(@=$&35(/%$@3?@/&(,5=D+(=@- ".+"=?+$2D"&G@(/(_@D3,&6(bbb(=/2$?24(9::9(P(bbb(=/2$?24(9::Q($;(@$2%(bbb(=/2$?24(9::T(P(bb(=/2$-?24(9::U($;(W/5=$&3(7O;(^@".&,(#$+G.&'(E2%5(/%$@3?@/&'(%@3?24(2$L.?$2D".&(@>Ij".@"5(%&(/%GD*#+("2( /53@=FJ(>@#@L"F('2=(/(>@>$%&#".,-(=/2$?242,-J(#5"28.=*(_^i;(_@#@L"&(E2%5(/%$@3?@/&(%@3?2-45(/5@#$*L".@"&(>$%&%(%23?@3@/2".&(3>&=?$2D"&G@(E.D?$2 C-$.3?.2"@(.(q.?%G&$2D#2(W\$2#%&/.,%(.(.";( 9:7:O(@$2%(8&?@#5(@>2$?&'("2(42Y,+,-2,-(H2$=@/2(Wq.,(9::RO;(Z=@"@8.B,.(%(12$@#@/&G@(i2"=+( _@D3=.&G@(/%$@3?@/F(E2%*(/(@=$&3.&(bbb(=/2$?24(9::9(P(bbb(=/2$?24(9::Q($;(@=$&BD.D.('2=@(@=$&3(=$I?- =@?$/24&G@(@K5/.&".2(/(".&=?I$5,-(#%.242,-(G@3>@#2$=.J(>$%&#&(/3%53?=.8(>$%&85BD&(.(&=3>@$-,.&(/(#4+K3%58(@=$&3.&(342L&'(=@".+"=?+$5;(]5%"2,%@"2(%@3?242($I/".&K(?$%&,.2(E2%2(/%$@3?@/26( bv(=/2$?24(9::R(P(bv(=/2$?24(9:77($;(W/5=$&3(7O;( ( cD2(2"2D.%5(%8.2"(,&"(/(,5=D+(=@".+"=?+$2D"58(%G@#".&(%(%24@K&".28.(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'( /2K"5('&3?(@=$&3(L@@8+;(c@(/5%"2,%&".2('&G@(>@,%F?=+(%23?@3@/2"@(?$&"#($@,%"5J(2('&G@(=@Y,&8( '&3?(=@".&,(,24&'(E2%5(/%$@3?@/&';(12(?&'(>@#3?2/.&(+3?2D@"@J(K&(,%23($@%=/.?+(+?$%585/24(3.*(@#( bb(=/2$?24+(9::k(#@(bb(=/2$?24+(9::U($;(_@8.".*?@(@=$&3(L@@8+ %(D2?(9::QP9::TJ(G#5K(?$/24(?5D=@( '&#&"(=/2$?24; (_$@/2#%@"2(>@D.?5=2(>.&".*K"2(>@#>@$%F#=@/2"2(L542($&2D.%2,'.(,&D+(12$@#@/&G@(i2"=+(_@D-3=.&G@6(+?$%582".+(3?2L.D"&G@(>@%.@8+(,&"(/(G@3>@#2$,&;(X#(9::Q($;(L2"=(,&"?$2D"5("23?*>+'F,@( #&E.".+'&(".3=F(."ED2,'*6(wxy!-#4#1!&'43%.,3!&3#032@0#/!&'!MNNO!(D!/#$%!)$%*+3435';*03#!$%'&.!30A4*-/3! 0*!&'53'13#!M<PQ!5!6'&)$5-5*40.1!&(5#653*:#1!;*7*C!RST!U!&)0,%!&('-#0%';.(W1i_(9::VJ(3;(79O; 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8%

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

PKB Średnia PKB Trend roczny Trend 2-letni Trend 3-letni Średnia z 3 trendów

]5=$&3(7

e@,%"&(%8.2"5($&2D"&G@(_^i(/(_@D3,&(@$2%('&G@(?$&"#5

(10)

(](_@D3,&("2(=@".&,(/3%53?=.,-(=/2$?24I/(/(D2?2,-(9::9P9:77(/53?*>@/242(."ED2,'2(8.&$%@-"2( $@,%"58( /3=2j".=.&8( ,&"( ?@/2$I/( .( +34+G( =@"3+8>,5'"5,-( W/5=$&3( 9O;( 12'/5K3%5( >@%.@8( @3.FG"*42(/(bb(=/2$?2D&(9::U($;(P(QJAzJ("2'".K3%5(%2B(/(b(=/2$?2D&(9::A($;(({(:JQz;(<&(/%GD*#+("2( 8"@G@BM(/&/"*?$%"5,-(.(%&/"*?$%"5,-(,%5"".=I/(/>45/2'F,5,-("2(."ED2,'*('&3?(@"2(=2?&G@$.F( L2$#%@(%8.&""F;(1.&8@KD./&('&3?(/.*,J(2L5(L2"=(,&"?$2D"5(8IG4(>$&,5%5'"&(3?&$@/2M('&'(>@%.@- 8&8;(cD2?&G@(/(_@D3,&(/53?*>@/245(@=$&35J(/(=?I$5,-($%&,%5/.3?2(."ED2,'2(".&(L542(%G@#"2(%(,&-D&8(."ED2,5'"58(1i_;(_$%&/5K3%242(GI$"F(G$2".,*(>$%&#%.24+(/2-2Y("2(>$%&4@8.&(9::Q(.(9::T($;J( 9::k(.(9::U(@$2%(/(,2458(9:77($;(1.K3%2(@#(#@D"&'(G$2".,5(>$%&#%.24+(L542("2?@8.23?(/(D2?2,-(9::9( .(9::V(@$2%("2(>$%&4@8.&(9::T(.(9::A($;(s2=.&(=3%?24?@/2".&(3.*(%8.2"(,&"(8.24@(/.&D&(>$%5,%5"( @(,-2$2=?&$%&(>@>5?@/58(.(>@#2K@/58J(/(G@3>@#2$,&(=$2'@/&'(.(B/.2?@/&';(c@BM(#4+G.8(@=$&- 3@8(+?$%585/2".2(3.*(."ED2,'.(>@%2(>$%&#%.24&8(#@>+3%,%2D"5,-(/2-2Y(3>$%5'242(3?$2?&G.2(>@D.?5-=.(>.&".*K"&'(1i_J(=?I$2(%2=42#2($&2D.%2,'*(,&D+(."ED2,5'"&G@(/(+'*,.+(B$&#".@@=$&3@/58;(_@8.8@( @#,-5D&Y(@#(,&D+(L2"=(,&"?$2D"5(".&(>@#&'8@/24(/.*,($&3?$5=,5'"5,-(.(3%5L=.,-(#%.242YJ(2L5(".&( %/.*=3%2M(/2-2Y(>$@#+=,'.(W1i_(9::VO; (]&#4+G(?&@$..(,5=D+(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'(#D2(%8.2"(/(3?$+=?+$%&(,&"(.(>$@#+=,'.(>@#3?2/@/&( %"2,%&".&(82(%8.2"2(>@#2K5(>.&".F#%2;()&#"F(%('&'(G4I/"5,-(#&?&$8."2"?('&3?(=3%?24?@/2".&(3.*( 3?I>(>$@,&"?@/5,-(L2"=+(,&"?$2D"&G@;(XL".K=.(3?@>5($&E&$&",5'"&'(1i_(/5>$%&#%245(=2K#F(/%$@- 3?@/F(E2%*(,5=D+(=@".+"=?+$2D"&G@(/(_@D3,&(/(D2?2,-(9::9P9:77(W/5=$&3(9O;(_$%5=42#@/@(>@,%F- ?&=(2=?+2D"&G@(@=$&3+(#@L$&'(=@".+"=?+$5($@%>@,%F4(3.*(>@(,%?&$&,-(=/2$?242,-(@#(>.&$/3%&'(@L-".K=.(3?@>5(1i_;(X%"2,%2(?@J(K&(.3?".&'&(%/.F%&=(>$%5,%5"@/@`3=+?=@/5(>@8.*#%5(42G@#%&".&8( >@D.?5=.(>.&".*K"&'(2(>@/3?2".&8(E2%5(/%$@3?+(,5=D+(=@".+"=?+$2D"&G@; 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8%

I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Inflacja Cel NBP Stopa referencyjna Faza wzrostu

]5=$&3(9

b"ED2,'2(.(3?@>2($&E&$&",5'"2(/(_@D3,&(/(D2?2,-(9::9P9:77

(11)

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bbb(.(bv(=/2$?2D&(9::9($;(i545(@"&(/5".=.&8( #+K&G@(@342L.&".2(=@".+"=?+$5(/(D2?2,-(9::7P9::9;(_$%&#3?2/.@"&("2(/5=$&3.&(V($@,%"&(%8.2"5( 2G$&G2?I/(8@"&?2$"5,-(/5".=245(%&(%8.2"6(2=?5/I/(%2G$2".,%"5,-("&??@J("2D&K"@B,.(>@#8.@?I/( G@3>@#2$,%5,-J( %2#4+K&".2( "&??@( ."3?5?+,'.( $%F#@/5,-( 3%,%&LD2( ,&"?$2D"&G@J( #4+G@?&$8."@/5,-( %@L@/.F%2Y(E."2"3@/5,-J(2=?5/I/(?$/245,-(@$2%(32D#2(>@%@3?245,-(>@%5,'.("&??@;

(!"2D.%2(%8.2"(>@#2K5(>.&".F#%2(/3=2%+'&("2(B,.345(%/.F%&=(2G$&G2?+(H7(%(E2%28.(,5=D+(=@-".+"=?+$2D"&G@( /( _@D3,&;( <( =@D&.( >.&".F#%( HV( '&3?( 8".&'( /$2KD./5( .( $&2G+'&( %( @>Ij".&".&8( "2( %8.2"5( >$@#+=,'.;( _$%5,%5"F( ?&G@( '&3?( =@"3?$+=,'2( 2G$&G2?I/;( _.&".F#%( H7( %2/.&$2( ?5D=@( #&>@- %5?5(L.&KF,&J(2(/.*,(G4I/".&(B$@#=.("2($2,-+"=2,-(L2"=@/5,-(>@3?2/.@"&(#@(#53>@%5,'.(>$%&#-3.*L.@$3?/;(](>.&$/3%&'(E2%.&(/%$@3?@/&'($@,%"&(>$%5$@3?5(2G$&G2?+(H7(".G#5(".&(L545(".K3%&(".K( 7Tz;(](#$+G.&'(E2%.&(/%$@3?@/&'(>$%5$@3?5(>$%53>.&3%545;(12'/5K3%F(/2$?@BM(@3.FG"*45(/(b(=/2$-?2D&(9::k($;({(9Rz;(c@(=@Y,2(?&'(E2%5(/5"@3.45(@=@4@(9:z;(_@#(=@".&,(?$%&,.&'(E2%5(/%$@3?+(?&8>@( %/5K=.(>.&".F#%2(H7(G/24?@/".&(3>2#4@J(#@(Qz($@,%".&;()&3?(?@(%2>@/.&#j(%2=@Y,%&".2(/(".&#4+-G.8(,%23.&(?$/2'F,&G@(@L&,".&(/%$@3?@/&G@(@=$&3+(,5=D+(&=@"@8.,%"&G@(/(_@D3,&; -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 % III IV I II

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

M1 M3 Faza wzrostu

]5=$&3(V

e@,%"&(%8.2"5(>@#2K5(>.&".F#%2(

(12)

5. Zmiany cen we wzrostowych fazach cyklu w Polsce

!"2D.%2(%8.2"(,&"(/(G@3>@#2$,&(>$%&>$@/2#%@"2(>$%&%(>$%&#3?2/.,.&D.(G4I/"&G@("+$?+(&=@"@8..( @>.&$2(3.*("2(@GID"58(>@%.@8.&(,&";()&3?(@"($@%+8.2"5('2=@(>$%&,.*?"2(,&"2(/.&D+(#IL$(.(+34+G("2-L5/2"5,-(>$%&%(G@3>@#2$3?/2(#@8@/&;(e&>$&%&"?2",.(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'(/3=2%+'FJ(K&(@>.&$2".&( 3.*("2(/.&D=@B,.2,-(%2G$&G@/2"5,-(>@/@#+'&(+?$2?*(/.&D+(.3?@?"5,-(."E@$82,'.J(=?I$5,-(#@3?2$,%2- 'F(/2-2".2(,5=D.,%"&;(_$@/2#%.(?@(#@(.G"@$@/2".2(%8.2"(,&"(.(>$@#+=,'.(/(>@3%,%&GID"5,-(3&=?@-$2,-(G@3>@#2$=.;(s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c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j".=.(,&"( 2"2D.%@/2"5,-( /.&D=@B,.( ,-2$2=?&$5%@/245( 3.*( +8.2$=@/2"F( #5"28.=F( @$2%( %8.&""@B,.F( W/5-=$&3(QO;(](>.&$/3%&'(E2%.&(/%$@3?@/&'(W9::9P9::QO(B$&#".@$@,%".&(,&"5("2=42#I/(."/&3?5,5'"5,-( /%$23?245( @( 7JAzJ( >$@#+=,'.( 3>$%&#2"&'( >$%&8534+( W__bO( @( QJ7zJ( 2( #IL$( =@"3+8>,5'"5,-( WC_bO(

96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110

I II III IV I II III IV I II III III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II IV I II III IV I II III IV 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Inwestycje Produkcja przemysłowa Konsumpcja Faza wzrostu

]5=$&3(Q

e@,%"&(/3=2j".=.(,&"(#IL$(.(+34+G

(13)

@( 7Jkz;( ]( #$+G.&'( E2%.&( W9::TP9::UO( B$&#".( $@,%"5( /%$@3?( ,&"( #IL$( ."/&3?5,5'"5,-( /5".I34( 7J7zJ( #IL$( >$%&8534@/5,-( 7JAzJ( 2( #IL$( >$%&%"2,%@"5,-( #@( =@"3+8>,'.( 9J7z;( ]( ?$%&,.&'( E2%.&( W9::RP9:77O(B$&#".@$@,%".&(,&"5("2=42#I/(."/&3?5,5'"5,-(3>2#45(@(:JUzJ(/%$@345(%2B(,&"5(>$@-#+=,'.(>$%&8534+(W@(QJUzO(@$2%(,&"5(?@/2$I/(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-(W@(VJQzO;(X>$I,%(#5"28.=.(.3?@?"2( '&3?($I/".&K(%8.&""@BM(,&";(^2?&G@$.FJ(=?I$&'(,&"5(L545("2'L2$#%.&'(%8.&""&J(@=2%242(3.*(>$@#+=,'2( >$%&8534@/2;(](>.&$/3%58(@=$&3.&(/%$@3?@/58(@#,-5D&".&(3?2"#2$#@/&(/5".@34@(9JU(>=?(>$@,;J( /(#$+G.8({(7JV(>=?(>$@,;J(2(/(?$%&,.8({(VJk(>=?(>$@,;(12'8".&'3%2(L542(%8.&""@BM(,&"(=@"3+8>-,'.;(](>.&$/3%&'(E2%.&(/5".@342(7JQ(>=?(>$@,;J(/(#$+G.&'(E2%.&({(7J9(>=?(>$@,;J(2(/(?$%&,.&'({(:JR(>=?( >$@,;(X#,-5D&".&(3?2"#2$#@/&(,&"("2=42#I/(."/&3?5,5'"5,-(/(L2#2"5,-(@=$&32,-(/5"@3.4@J(@#- >@/.&#".@6(:JR(>=?(>$@,;J(7JQ(>=?(>$@,;(@$2%(9J:(>=?(>$@,;(<(>@/5K3%5,-(#2"5,-(/5".=2J(K&(=3%?24?@- /2".&(3.*(,&"(".&(L54@(/(>&4".(%G@#"&(%(?&@$.F(,5=D+(=@".+"=?+$2D"&G@(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&';(N$&#".@-$@,%"&(#5"28.=.(,&"("2=42#I/(."/&3?5,5'"5,-(W=2K#2(E2%2O(@$2%(>$@#+=,'.(3>$%&#2"&'(>$%&8534+( W#$+G2(E2%2O(L545(".K3%&(".K(,&"(=@"3+8>,'.(>$5/2?"&';(s2=.&(=3%?24?@/2".&(3.*(,&"('&3?(@#/$@?"&J( ".K(?/.&$#%F(f!+3?$.2,5g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i(/(@3?2?".,-(=.D-98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114

Inwes-tycje cja prze- Produk-mysłowa

Konsum-pcja Inwes-tycje cja prze- Produk-mysłowa

Konsum-pcja Inwes-tycje cja prze- Produk-mysłowa

Konsum-pcja

2002–2004 2005–2008 2009–2011 Cała faza wzrostu Faza wzrostu bez boomu

]5=$&3(T

]3=2j".=.(,&"(/(E2%2,-(/%$@3?@/5,-(/(D2?2,-(9::9{9:77

(14)

=+#%.&3.*,.+(D2?2,-;(s2=K&(/2$+"=.(8@"&?2$"&(3>$%5'245(=3%?24?@/2".+(3.*(3?$+=?+$5(,&"(%G@#".&( %(?&@$.F(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&';(XL".K=.(3?I>(>$@,&"?@/5,-(%2>@,%F?=@/2"&(>$%&%(12$@#@/5(i2"=(_@D-3=.(/(b(=/2$?2D&(9::T($;(#@>$@/2#%.45(#@(%"2,%"&G@(/%$@3?+(>@#2K5(>.&".F#%2(/(+'*,.+($@,%"58( .(/(,24&'(E2%.&;(!G$&G2?(H7(/%$23?24($@,%".&(B$&#".@(@(97zJ(2(/(,2458(@=$&3.&(>@/.*=3%54(3.*(@(UAz;( (](E2%.&(/%$@3?+(/(D2?2,-(9::TP9::U(,&"5("2=42#I/(."/&3?5,5'"5,-(%/.*=3%545(3.*(@(VJRzJ( ,&"5(>$@#+=,'.(>$%&8534+(@(TJUzJ(2(,&"5(#IL$(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-(@(kJkz;(s2=2(3?$+=?+$2(."ED2,'.('&3?( 3>$%&,%"2(%(?/.&$#%&".&8(f!+3?$.2=I/g;(i2$#%.&'(%G@#"2(%(".8('&3?(3?$+=?+$2(%8.2"(,&"(/(D2?2,-( 9::9P9::Q;(C&"5(>$@#+=,'.(>$%&8534@/&'(/%$@345(/I/,%23(3.D".&'(".K(,&"5(=@"3+8>,'.J(2(,&"5( "2=42#I/("2(."/&3?5,'&(>@#@L".&('2=(,&"5(#IL$(E."2D"5,-;(<LD.K@"2(3?$+=?+$2(,&"(/53?*>@/242( /(D2?2,-(9::RP9:77;(]3=2j".=(,&"(>$@#+=,'.(3>$%&#2"&'(>$%&8534+(L54(/I/,%23(/5K3%5(".K(,&"( ?@/2$I/(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-;([>2#45('&#"2=(W@(7JAzO(,&"5("2=42#I/(."/&3?5,5'"5,-J(=?I$&(>@/.""5( /%$@3"FM("2'L2$#%.&';(s2=2(3?$+=?+$2(,&"(82(>.*M(>$%5,%5";(_@(>.&$/3%&J(/%GD*#"&(@$2%(2L3@D+?"&( 3>2#=.(,&"(#IL$(."/&3?5,5'"5,-J(3=42#2'F,5,-(3.*(G4I/".&(%(823%5"(.(+$%F#%&YJ(>$2/#@>@#@L".&( /5".=2'F(%(/53@=.&G@(?&8>2(>@3?*>+(?&,-".,%"&G@;(_@(#$+G.&J(#+K2(,%*BM(=$&#5?I/(%@3?242(/5- #2"2("2(#@L$2(=@"3+8>,5'"&J(#@(=?I$5,-(%2D.,%2(3.*(?2=K&(#@L$2(?$/24&G@(+K5?=+;(<"2,%".&(%".&-=3%?24,2(?@(3?@3@/2"5(."#&=3(,&"(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-;(_@(?$%&,.&J(/(9::Q($;(_@D3=2(/3?F>.42(#@(h"..( Z+$@>&'3=.&';( ]5/@424@( ?@( 3.D"5( /%$@3?( /@D+8&"+( @$2%( ,&"( ?@/2$I/( &=3>@$?@/5,-J( /( =?I$5,-( 3?$+=?+$%&(#@8."+'F(#@L$2(=@"3+8>,5'"&({(>$%&#&(/3%53?=.8(>$@#+=?5($@D".,%&(.(3>@K5/,%&;(_@( ,%/2$?&J(#@(3.D"&G@(/%$@3?+(,&"(K5/"@B,.(>$%5,%5".45(3.*(#+K&(/%$@3?5(,&"(>$@#+=?I/($@D".,%5,-( "2($5"=2,-(8.*#%5"2$@#@/5,-;(_@(>.F?&J(/(D2?2,-(9::TP9::U(3?$+=?+$2(,&"(%@3?242(.3?@?".&(%2=4I-,@"2(>$%&%(%8.2"5(,&"(/(@=$&3.&(L@@8+;( (](@=$&3.&(".&@L&'8+'F,58 L@@8+J(,%5D.(#@(bb(=/2$?24+(9::k($;J(,&"5("2=42#I/(."/&3?5,5'"5,-( /%$@345(@(VJkzJ(,&"5(>$@#+=,'.(>$%&8534@/&'(@(VJAzJ(2(,&"5(#IL$(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-(@(VJ9z(W/5- =$&3(TO;(1.&/.&D=.&($IK".,&(8.*#%5(%8.2"28.(,&"(?5,-(=2?&G@$..(8@GF(L5M(."?&$>$&?@/2".&(#/@'2-80 90 100 110 120 130

III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II IV I II III IV I II III IV 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Surowce Metale Maszyny Zaopatrzenie Spożywcze

]5=$&3(A

e@,%"&(/3=2j".=.(,&"(#IL$(/&(/%$@3?@/5,-(E2%2,-(,5=D+(/(_@D3,&

(15)

=@;(H@GF(>@?/.&$#%2M(?&@$.*(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'(@(/%GD*#"58(3>2#=+(,&"(#IL$(E."2D"5,-(/(3?@3+"-=+(#@(,&"(#IL$(>@B$&#".,-;(H@GF(L5M(?&K(>@?/.&$#%&".&8(?&@$..(8@"&?2$53?I/(@(>$@>@$,'@"2D"58( /%$@B,.&(,&"(/&(/3%53?=.,-(3&=?@$2,-(G@3>@#2$=.;(<G@#".&(%(>@GDF#28.(f!+3?$.2=I/g /(@=$&3.&( @K5/.&".2(Wbb(=/2$?24(9::k(P(bb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i2#2".&(#@?5,%5(?5D=@(#/I,-(E2%(%&(/%GD*#+("2(#@3?*>"@BM(#2"5,-(#@?5-,%F,5,-(".&=?I$5,-(=2?&G@$..;(e@,%"&(#5"28.=.(,&"(?5,-(=2?&G@$..(>$%&3?2/.2(/5=$&3(A;(12'#2D&'( @#(=@"3+8&"?2(%"2'#+'F(3.*(3+$@/,&;(](D2?2,-(9::TP9::U(B$&#".2($@,%"2(%8.2"2(.,-(,&"(L542("2'-/.*=3%2(.(/5"@3.42(UJ7zJ(,@('&3?(%G@#"&(%(8@#&D&8(H.3&32(.(d25&=2;(N$&#".@$@,%"2(#5"28.=2(,&"( 8&?2D.(/5"@3.42(:JQzJ(#IL$(%2@>2?$%&".@/5,-(QJQzJ(2(#IL$(3>@K5/,%5,-(VJ:z;(<(=@D&.(,&"5(82-3%5"(.(+$%F#%&Y(3>2#45(B$&#".@(@(7J9z;(b"2,%&'J(/(3>@3IL(LD.K3%5(?/.&$#%&".@8(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'J( =3%?24?@/242(3.*(%8.&""@BM(,&"(L2#2"5,-(#IL$;(X#,-5D&".&(3?2"#2$#@/&(,&"(3+$@/,I/(/5".@34@( kJA(>=?(>$@,;(12'/.*=3%2(L542(%8.&""@BM(,&"(8&?2D.({(UJ9(>=?(>$@,;J("2'8".&'3%2(%2B(823%5"(.(+$%F-#%&Y(W7JT(>=?(>$@,;O;(C&"5(#IL$(%2@>2?$%&".@/5,-(%8.&".45(3.*(@(VJk(>=?(>$@,;J(2(,&"5(>$@#+=?I/( 3>@K5/,%5,-(@(VJ:(>=?(>$@,;(](E2%.&(/%$@3?+(/(D2?2,-(9::RP9:77(B$&#".&($@,%"&(/3=2j".=.(,&"( @3.FG245("23?*>+'F,&(/2$?@B,.6(3+$@/,&(7kJkzJ(8&?2D&(7:JQzJ(823%5"5(.(+$%F#%&".2(`:JUzJ(#@L$2( %2@>2?$%&".@/&(TJTzJ(>$@#+=?5(3>@K5/,%&(QJ:z;(s2=.&(%8.2"5(,&"(/(#+K58(3?@>".+(>@?/.&$#%2'F( >@GDF#5(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'J(K&(,&"5(#IL$("2(&?2>2,-("2'L2$#%.&'(@##2D@"5,-(@#(=@"3+8&"?2($@3"F( 3%5L,.&'(".K(,&"5(#IL$(>$%&%"2,%@"5,-(#@("2?5,-8.23?@/&'(=@"3+8>,'.;(](?58(@=$&3.&("2'/.*=3%&( @#,-5D&".&(3?2"#2$#@/&(#@?5,%54@(,&"(8&?2D.({(77Jk(>=?(>$@,;J("2'8".&'3%&("2?@8.23?(,&"(2$?5=+-4I/(3>@K5/,%5,-({(7JU(>=?(>$@,; 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145

Surowce Metale Maszyny

Zaopa-trzenie Spożyw-cze Surowce Metale Maszyny Zaopa-trzenie Spożyw-cze 2005–2008 2009–2011

Cała faza wzrostu Faza wzrostu bez boomu

]5=$&3(k

]3=2j".=.(,&"(/&(/%$@3?@/5,-(@=$&32,-(,5=D+(/(D2?2,-(9::T{9:77

(16)

(<G@#".&(%(?&@$.F(,5=D+(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&'(%8.2"5(,&"(#IL$("2(>@3%,%&GID"5,-(&?2>2,-(>$@#+=- ,'.(>@/.""5(?/@$%5M(@>.32"5(>@/5K&'(3,-&82?;(]5=$&3(k(>$%&#3?2/.2(%8.2"5(,&"(/(#/I,-(/%$@-3?@/5,-(E2%2,-(,5=D+(=@".+"=?+$2D"&G@(/(>@D3=.&'(G@3>@#2$,&;(!"2D.%2(%8.2"(,&"(/(,2458(@=$&3.&( 9::TP9::U(/5=2%242J(K&("2'3%5L,.&'(/%$@345(,&"5(3+$@/,I/(P(@(V9J7z;(]@D".&'($@345(,&"5(8&?2D.({( @(7QJAz;(c5"28.=2(,&"(#IL$(%2@>2?$%&".@/5,-(/5".@342(RJUzJ(2(2$?5=+4I/(3>@K5/,%5,-(77J7z;(C&- "5(823%5"(.(+$%F#%&Y(3>2#45(/(L2#2"58(@=$&3.&(@(QJRz;([?$+=?+$2(,&"(/(E2%.&(/%$@3?+(>$%&#3?2/.@-"2(>$%&%(3%=@4*(2+3?$.2,=F(%@3?242(?5D=@(,%*B,.@/@(>@?/.&$#%@"2(/(_@D3,&(/(2"2D.%@/2"58(@=$&3.&;( ]L$&/(?&'(?&@$..(,&"5(#IL$(3>@K5/,%5,-(/%GD*#".&(/%$@345(/(>@$I/"2".+(%(,&"28.(823%5"(.(+$%F-#%&Y(@$2%(#IL$(%2@>2?$%&".@/5,-;(<(=@D&.(=3%?24?@/2".&(3.*(,&"(3+$@/,I/(.(8&?2D.(>@?/.&$#%2(?&%*( f!+3?$.2=I/g(@(/%GD*#"58(/%$@B,.&(,&"(#IL$("2(>@,%F?=@/5,-(&?2>2,-(>$@,&3+(>$@#+=,5'"&G@; (]%GD*#"5(/%$@3?(,&"(2$?5=+4I/(3>@K5/,%5,-(/(3?@3+"=+(#@(,&"(823%5"(.(+$%F#%&Y(@$2%(#IL$( %2@>2?$%&".@/5,-(/5".=24(8;.";(%&(/%$@3?+(#5"28.=.(,&"(#IL$(3>@K5/,%5,-(/(@=$&3.&(L@@8+;( _@(/54F,%&".+(?&G@(@=$&3+(%(,24&'(/%$@3?@/&'(E2%5(,5=D+(#5"28.=.(,&"(L2#2"5,-(=2?&G@$..(=3%?24- ?@/245(3.*("23?*>+'F,@6(3+$@/,&(97J7zJ(8&?2D&(7QJQzJ(823%5"5(.(+$%F#%&".2(`:JAzJ(#@L$2(%2@>2-?$%&".@/&(7:JUzJ(>$@#+=?5(3>@K5/,%&(QJ:z(W/5=$&3(kO;(_@(?2=.&'(8@#5E.=2,'.(>$@LD&8&8(>@%@3?2'&( ?5D=@(3>2#&=(,&"(823%5"(.(+$%F#%&Y;(H@K"2(G@(/5'2B".M(>@3?*>&8(?&,-".,%"58(@$2%(#+KF(=@"=+-$&",'F(E.$8(%2G$2".,%"5,-("2(>@D3=.8($5"=+;

(]%GD*#"5( 3>2#&=( ,&"( 823%5"( .( +$%F#%&Y( /53?F>.4( $I/".&K( /( E2%.&( /%$@3?+( /( D2?2,-( 9::RP9:77;(<8.2"5(,&"(>@%@3?245,-(>$@#+=?I/(L545("2?@8.23?(/(>&4".(%G@#"&(%(>@GDF#28.(G4@-3%@"58.( >$%&%( >$%&#3?2/.,.&D.( 3%=@45( 2+3?$.2,=.&'( W/5=$&3( kO;( C&"5( 3+$@/,I/( /%$@345( @( Q7JUzJ( ,&"5( 8&?2D.( @( VAJRzJ( 823%5"( .( +$%F#%&Y( @( VJ:zJ( #IL$( %2@>2?$%&".@/5,-( @( 7UJTzJ( 2( >$@#+=?I/( 3>@K5/,%5,-(@(UJkz;(]53@=.&J($@3"F,&(?&8>@(>$%5$@3?+(>@#2K5(>.&".F#%2(/(_@D3,&(+$+,-@8.4@( /( G@3>@#2$,&( >$@,&35( >@/@#+'F,&( +=3%?24?@/2".&( 3.*( ?2=.&'( 3?$+=?+$5( ,&"J( /( =?I$&'( ,&"5( #IL$( 3>@K5/,%5,-(/%GD*#".&(3>2#45;(

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 % Żeliwo, stal, żelazostopy

Cement, wapno, gips Żwir, piasek i gliny Węgiel kamienny Konsumpcyjne 2009–2011 2005–2008 ]5=$&3(U ]%$@3?(,&"(>$@#+=?I/(/&(/%$@3?@/5,-(E2%2,-(,5=D+(/(_@D3,&( p$I#4@6(@LD.,%&".2("2(>@#3?2/.&(\h[(W9::VP9:79LO;

(17)

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`>$@-,&"?@/5(/%$@3?(,&"(K&D./2J(3?2D.(.(K&D2%@3?@>I/;(H@K"2(/".@3=@/2MJ(K&(@L&,".&(>$%&#3.*L.@$,5( 3=+>.D.(3.*("2($@%L+#@/.&(>$%&#3.*L.@$3?/(>$%&8534@/5,-(.(."E$23?$+=?+$5(?&,-".,%"&';(

F2&G%'#H*+,:?,

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

(!"2D.%2( /3=2j".=I/( ,&"( #IL$( /( >@D3=.&'( G@3>@#2$,&( >@%/2D2( >@%5?5/".&J( ,-@M( ".&( /&( /3%53?=.,-( 23>&=?2,-J( %/&$5E.=@/2M( >@3?2/.@"F( /&( /3?*>.&( -.>@?&%*( L2#2/,%FJ( =?I$2( 8I/.J( K&( &=3>2"35/"2( >@D.?5=2( >.&".*K"2( />45/2( "2( %8.2"*( 3?$+=?+$5( ,&"( /( G@3>@#2$,&;( N/.2#,%F( @(?586(7O(3%5L3%5(/(E2%.&(&=3>2"3'.J(/(D2?2,-(9::9P9::Q(.(9::RP9:77J(/%$@3?(,&"(>$@#+=,'.(3>$%&- #2"&'(>$%&8534+(".K(/%$@3?(,&"(#IL$(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-S(9O("2'/5K3%5(."#&=3(,&"("2=42#I/(."/&- 3?5,5'"5,-(.("2'".K3%5(?@/2$I/(=@"3+8>,5'"5,-(/(D2?2,-(9::TP9::UJ(>@(/5&D.8."@/2".+(@=$&-3+(L@@8+S(VO(3%5L3%5(/%$@3?(,&"(3+$@/,I/(".K(,&"(2$?5=+4I/(3>@K5/,%5,-6(?$%5=$@?".&(/(D2?2,-( 9::TP9::U( @$2%( ,%?&$@=$@?".&( /( D2?2,-( 9::TP9::U( WL&%( @=$&3+( L@@8+O( .( /( @=$&3.&( 9::RP9:77S( QO(3%5L3%5(>$%5$@3?(,&"(8&?2D.(@$2%(#IL$(%2@>2?$%&".@/5,-(W/(@=$&3.&(L&%(L@@8+O(".K(,&"(>$@#+=-?I/(3>@K5/,%5,-; (XL3&$/2,'28.J(=?I$&(".&(>@?/.&$#%2'F(>@3?2/.@"&'(-.>@?&%5J(3F6("2'8".&'3%&J(/(=2K#&'(>&4"&'( E2%.&(/%$@3?+J(%8.2"5(,&"("2=42#I/(."/&3?5,5'"5,-(@$2%(/%GD*#"5(/(3?@3+"=+(#@(,&"(2$?5=+4I/( 3>@K5/,%5,-(.|D+L(2L3@D+?"5(3>2#&=(,&"(823%5"(.(+$%F#%&Y;(_$%&#3?2/.,.&D&(3%=@45(2+3?$.2,=.&' >@#=$&BD2'FJ(K&(G@3>@#2$=2('&3?(#5"28.,%"58(.(%4@K@"58(353?&8&8;(c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h"..(Z+$@>&'3=.&';

(18)

I?J(?#A<%K%

!"#&$3@"(i;H;(W7RkRV<!W-'0'13-$!*06!%7#!&)+43-!;#4A*(#X!*!A30*0-3*4!*06!#-'0'13-!73$%'(.!'A!%7#!

! Y03%#6!Z%*%#$!U[U\]U[\^J(_$.",&?@"(h".l&$3.?5(_$&33J(_$.",&?@";

!"#&$3@"(];r;(W9::ROJ([25t3(D2/(2"#(?-&(!+3?$.2"(?-&@$5(@E(?-&(L+3."&33(,5,D&J(_)*(%#(4.!"')(0*4!

! 'A!`)$%(3*0!W-'0'13-$J(79W9OJ(Qk{TR;

i2$,%5=( e;( W9:::P9::7OJ( H&?@#@D@G.,%"&( >$@LD&85( #.2G"@%@/2".2( /3>I4,%&3"5,-( /2-2Y( ( =@".+"=?+$2D"5,-J(I'43%.,*!a'$&'6*(-5*J(TPAJ(QVPTU; i2$,%5=(e;J(^F3&=(r;J(r+L.Y3=.(H;J(H2$,%&/3=.(^;(W9::AOJ( b';#!'+43-5*!-.,4)!,'03)0,%)(*40#8'J( ( _@D3=.&(]5#2/".,?/@(Z=@"@8.,%"&J(]2$3%2/2; i2$,%5=(e;J(r+L.Y3=.(H;(W9::ROJ(c.4#1*%.!$%*+3435';*03*!,'03)0,%)(.J(]5#2/".,?/@(h"./&$35?&?+( ( /(_@%"2".+J(_@%"2Y; i233&(s;(W9::AOJ(!"(!+3?$.2"(l&$3.@"(@E(?-&(r+,23(,$.?.}+&J(_)*(%#(4.!"')(0*4!'A!`)$%(3*0!W-'0'13-$J( ( RW7OJ(7TP9A; iD2+G(H;(W9:::OJ(?#'(3*!#,'0'133D!Y/2-3#!(#%('$&#,%.;0#J(]5#2/".,?/@(12+=@/&(_]1J(]2$3%2/2; l@"(im-8`i2/&$=(Z;(W7UR7OJ(?7#!I'$3%3d#!?7#'(.!'A!F*&3%*4J([?&?,-&$?(~(C@;J(r@"#@"; i$%@%2`i$%&%."2(H;J(^@?(!;J(^4@3(i;J(o5%.2=(s;(W9::9OJ(e3&'%#5*!0#)%(*40'>-3!&3#03=65*J(H2?&$.245( ( .([?+#.2(1i_J(7Q9J(12$@#@/5(i2"=(_@D3=.J(]2$3%2/2; i+$"3(!;q;J(H.?,-&DD(];C;(W7RQAOJ(f#*$)(308!+)$30#$$!-.-4#$D!Z%)63#$!30!+)$30#$$!-.-4#$J(1iZeJ( ( 1&/(@$=;

i+?@3( ];1;( W7RRVOJ( s-&( $&,&33.@"( 2"( !+3?$.2"( L+3."&33( ,5,D&( ?-&@$56( 2"( &8>.$.,2D( >&$3>&,?.l&J(

F(3%3-*4!H#d3#;X!`!"')(0*4!'A!I'43%3-$!*06!Z'-3#%.J(kW9PVOJ(9kkPV:A;

C2"?.DD@"(e;(W7kTTOJ W$$*3!$)(!4*!0*%)(#!6)!-'11#(-#!#0!8g0g(*4<!r@"#@"J(d@DL@$";

C@,-$2"( );_;( W9:77OJ( d25&=( 2"#( ?-&( 973?( ,&"?+$5( L@@8`L+3?( 2"#( $&,&33.@"`$&,@l&$5J( _)*(%#(4.!

! "')(0*4!'A!`)$%(3*0!W-'0'13-$J(7QWVOJ(9AVP9Uk;

c&8,%+=( X;J( o5%.2=( s;J( _$%53?+>2( );J( [%"2'#&$3=2( !;J( ]$IL&D( Z;( W9:79OJ( f#-7*0351! %(*0$13$/3!

! &'43%.,3!&3#032@0#/!;!I'4$-#D!F'!;3#1.!;!MNUU!(',)hJ(H2?&$.245(.([?+#.2(1i_J(9k:J(12$@#@/5(

( i2"=(_@D3=.J(]2$3%2/2;

c$@>( );J( ]@'?5"2( !;( W9::7OJ( Z%(*%#83*! +#5&'>(#603#8'! -#4)! 30A4*-./0#8'X! &(5#$:*0,3! %#'(#%.-50#!

! 3! 6'>;3*6-5#03*! ;.+(*0.-7! ,(*/B;J( H2?&$.245( .( [?+#.2( 1i_J( 77UJ( 12$@#@/5( i2"=( _@D3=.J(

( ]2$3%2/2;

Z3?&5();!;(W7RTROJ(F.,4#!,'03)0,%)(*40#J(_2Y3?/@/&(]5#2/".,?/2(\@3>@#2$,%&J(]2$3%2/2; q.,(s;(W9::ROJ(C5=D(=@".+"=?+$2D"5(/(_@D3,&;(]".@3=.(%(8@#&D.(H2$=@/2J(W,'0'13$%*J(7J(QRPAA; q.3-&$( b;( W7R77OJ( ?7#! &)(-7*$308! &';#(! 'A! 1'0#.X! 3%$! 6#%#(130*%3'0! *06! (#4*%3'0! %'! -(#63%<! 30%#(#$%!

! *06!-(3$#$J(e@+?D&#G&J(1&/(@$=;

q$.&#82"(H;J([,-/2$?%(!;);(W7RAV2OJ(`!1'0#%*(.!73$%'(.!'A!%7#!Y03%#6!Z%*%#$!Ui^j]U[^NJ(_$.",&?@"( ( h".l&$3.?5(_$&33J(_$.",&?@";

q$.&#82"( H;J( [,-/2$?%( !;);( W7RAVLOJ( H@"&5( 2"#( L+3."&33( ,5,D&3J( H#d3#;! 'A! W-'0'13-$! *06!

! Z%*%3$%3-$J(QTW7OJ(V9PkU;

\2$$.3@"(e;];(W9::7OJ(?31#!*06!1'0#.D!?7#!1*-('#-'0'13-$!'A!-*&3%*4!$%()-%)(#J(e@+?D&#G&J(r@"#@"; \$2#%&/.,%( H;J( \$@/.&,( );J( d2G&8&'&$( );J( _@>@/3=.( _;( W9:7:OJ( C5=D( =@".+"=?+$2D"5( /( _@D3,&( ( {(/".@3=.(%(2"2D.%5(3>&=?$2D"&'J(L*0,!3!K(#6.%J(Q7WTOJ(Q7PkA;

Cytaty

Powiązane dokumenty

Skoro predykat prawdziwości odnosi się do własności funkcjonalnej pojmowanej jako własność o charakterze su- perwenientnym, oznacza to, że własność prawdziwości nie jest żadną

Toruń musi mieć uniwersytet; Transporty i mity; Uniwersytet bez- domny; Woły, kury i wczasy; Tajemnice portretu rektora Ludwika Kolankowskiego; Skarby, skarby, skarby; I stał

Od 1971 roku uruchomiono na Politechnice Szczecińskiej tryb studiów doktoranckich za- ocznych, a od 1985 roku w kolejnych latach zgłaszało się na nie około 20–40 kandydatów. Od

SEE'VICE&#34; w innych krajach i po uzyskaniu tam paif;enitaw iSIk'IJIlecml6e IOIb1r.-onie !be lriieJ!lllliecloa· Lub bye przedmiotem korzystnej sprzedsty

Integro- waniu się wiedzy teoretycznej i wiedzy praktycznej towarzyszą procesy tworzenia się walki między wiedzą i niewiedzą, oraz w konsekwencji powstawanie pola nie- wiedzy..

Serki sojowe typu tofu, mogą być zalecane jako źródło żelaza i miedzi w diecie wegan, złożonej z produktów pochodzenia roślinnego.... The analysis of selected milk

Cały wątek sarmacki w dziele Długosza prawdopodobnie jest późnym wtrętem, wynikającym z próby pogodzenia zyskujących popularność w jego czasach nowych wyobrażeń z

Formal testing of whether a time series contains a trend is greatly compli- cated by the fact that in practice it is not known whether the trend is embedded in an I(0)