Inwestycje a wzrost gospodarczy Chin w latach 1980-2012

A N N A L E S

8 1 , 9 ( 5 6 , 7$7 , 6   0 $ 5 , $ (   & 8 5 , (  6 . à 2 ' 2 : 6 . $ /8%/,1±32/21,$ 92/;/9,,, 6(&7,2+  8QLZHUV\WHW0DULL&XULH6NáRGRZVNLHMZ/XEOLQLH.DWHGUD*RVSRGDUNLĝZLDWRZHML,QWHJUDFML(XURSHMVNLHM 720$6=%,$à2:Ą6

,QZHVW\FMHDZ]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\&KLQZODWDFK±

,QYHVWPHQWDQG&KLQD¶VHFRQRPLFJURZWKLQWKH\HDUV± 6áRZDNOXF]RZH&KLQ\Z]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\PRGHO+DUURGD±'RPDUDLQZHVW\FMH .H\ZRUGV&KLQDHFRQRPLFJURZWK+DUURG±'RPDUPRGHOLQYHVWPHQW :VWĊS

7HPSR Z]URVWX UHDOQHJR 3.% &KLQ Z RVWDWQLFK  ODWDFK QLH]PLHQQLH SU]H-NUDF]DZ\QLNLZ\VRNRUR]ZLQLĊW\FKJRVSRGDUHNMDNUyZQLHĪNUDMyZUR]ZLMDMąF\FK VLĊLSU]HFKRG]ąF\FKWUDQVIRUPDFMĊ=JRGQLH]GDQ\PL%DQNXĝZLDWRZHJRĞUHGQLH URF]QH WHPSR Z]URVWX 3.% &KLQ Z ODWDFK ± Z\QRVLáR  D 3.% per FDSLWD:URNX3.%SHUFDSLWD&KLQVWDQRZLáR]DOHGZLH3.%per FDSLWD6WDQyZ=MHGQRF]RQ\FK%UD]\OLLL,QGLL:URNXZVNDĨQLNL WHZ\QRVLá\RGSRZLHGQLRL>:RUOG%DQN@ 3RGVWDZRZ\PF]\QQLNLHPZ]URVWX3.%Z&KLQDFKSRURNXE\á\LQZH-VW\FMHNWyUHSU]\F]\QLá\VLĊGRSRSUDZ\WHFKQLF]QHJRX]EURMHQLDSUDF\:ODWDFK ;;ZLHNXXG]LDáNDSLWDáXZHZ]URĞFLH3.%&KLQHNVSHUFL+6%&RV]DFRZDOLQD :]UyVáRQGRZODWDFK±LGRZRNUHVLH±>+RQJ-ELQ1HXPDQQV@7DNGXĪDURODNDSLWDáXZ\QLND]EDUG]RZ\VRNLHMVWRS\ LQZHVW\FMLILQDQVRZDQ\FKSU]HGHZV]\VWNLPNUDMRZ\PLRV]F]ĊGQRĞFLDPL:URNX VWRSDLQZHVW\FMLEUXWWRZĞURGNLWUZDáHZ\QRVLáDLQDOHĪDáDGRQDMZ\ĪV]\FK QDĞZLHFLH:ĞUyGHNRQRPLVWyZSRZV]HFKQ\MHVWSRJOąGĪHSR]RVWDMHRQDUyZQLHĪ ]E\W Z\VRND D QDGPLHUQH RV]F]ĊGQRĞFL RJUDQLF]DMą NUDMRZ\ SRS\W X]DOHĪQLDMąF &KLQ\RG]DJUDQLF]Q\FKU\QNyZ]E\WX

 720$6=%,$à2:Ą6 &]\]DWHPPRGHOZ]URVWXJRVSRGDUF]HJRRSDUW\QD]ZLĊNV]DQLX]DVREyZNDSLWDáX SURGXNF\MQHJRSRSU]H]HNVWHQV\ZQHLQZHVW\FMHZSU]\SDGNX&KLQSURZDG]LGRSU]H-LQZHVWRZDQLD"&]\LVWQLHMąPRĪOLZRĞFLGDOV]HJRZ]URVWXQDSĊG]DQHJRLQZHVW\FMDPL" &HOHPDUW\NXáXMHVWRNUHĞOHQLHUROLQDNáDGyZLQZHVW\F\MQ\FKZWZRU]HQLXZ]URVWX JRVSRGDUF]HJR&KLQZODWDFK±3U]HGPLRWHPV]F]HJyáRZHMDQDOL]\Vą

G\QDPLND Z]URVWX 3.% L XG]LDá JáyZQ\FK F]\QQLNyZ ZH Z]URĞFLH JRVSR-GDUF]\P

]PLDQ\VWRS\RV]F]ĊGQRĞFLLLQZHVW\FMLRUD]UR]PLDU\NDSLWDáXSURGXNF\MQHJR RNUHĞOHQLH HIHNW\ZQRĞFL QDNáDGyZ LQZHVW\F\MQ\FK L VWRSQLD Z\NRU]\VWDQLD

NDSLWDáXSURGXNF\MQHJR

8G]LDá JáyZQ\FK F]\QQLNyZ ZH Z]URĞFLH 3.% RV]DFRZDQR QD SRGVWDZLH GH-NRPSR]\FML IXQNFML SURGXNFML &REE±'RXJODVD HIHNW\ZQRĞü LQZHVW\FML RFHQLRQR SU]\]DVWRVRZDQLXZVNDĨQLNDSU]\URVWRZHMNDSLWDáRFKáRQQRĞFLD]DVDGQRĞüQRZ\FK LQZHVW\FMLQDED]LHZVNDĨQLNDZ\NRU]\VWDQLDPDMąWNXSURGXNF\MQHJR =DNUHVF]DVRZ\SU]HSURZDG]RQHMDQDOL]\REHMPXMHODWD±DQLH]EĊGQH GDQHSRFKRG]ą]ED]0LĊG]\QDURGRZHJR)XQGXV]X:DOXWRZHJR>,0)@%DQNX ĝZLDWRZHJR>:RUOG%DQN@81&7$'>@L(XURVWDWX>@ '\QDPLNDLJáyZQHF]\QQLNLZ]URVWXJRVSRGDUF]HJR&KLQ ZODWDFK± 6SHF\ILNDJRVSRGDUNL&KLQSRZRGXMHĪHVWZRU]RQ\ZODWDFK;;ZLHNXSU]H] 5+DUURGDL('RPDUDPRGHOSR]RVWDMHXĪ\WHF]Q\PQDU]ĊG]LHPWHR-UHW\F]Q\PGRZ\MDĞQLHQLDPHFKDQL]PXZ]URVWXJRVSRGDUF]HJRZ&KLQDFK2SLHUD VLĊ RQ QD ]DáRĪHQLX ĪH WHPSR Z]URVWX UHDOQHJR 3.% MHVW ZSURVW SURSRUFMRQDOQH GR VWRS\ LQZHVW\FML L RGZURWQLH SURSRUFMRQDOQH GR NUDĔFRZHM NDSLWDáRFKáRQQRĞFL SURGXNFML 6WRSD LQZHVW\FML ]DOHĪ\ RG VWRS\ RV]F]ĊGQRĞFL D ]DWHP LP VLOQLHMV]D VNáRQQRĞüGRRV]F]ĊG]DQLDW\PZLĊNV]HLQZHVW\FMHLZ\ĪV]DG\QDPLNDZ]URVWX 3.%7DNGáXJRMDNVWRSDLQZHVW\FMLEĊG]LHUyZQDVWRSLHRV]F]ĊGQRĞFLSU]\]DáR-ĪHQLXSHáQHJRZ\NRU]\VWDQLDF]\QQLNyZSURGXNFMLJRVSRGDUNDEĊG]LH]QDMGRZDáD VLĊQDĞFLHĪFH]UyZQRZDĪRQHJRZ]URVWX=GUXJLHMVWURQ\NOXF]RZ\PHOHPHQWHP MHVW ZDUWRĞü ZVSyáF]\QQLND NUDĔFRZHM NDSLWDáRFKáRQQRĞFL SURGXNFML F]\OL OLF]E\ MHGQRVWHN NDSLWDáX QLH]EĊGQ\FK GR Z\WZRU]HQLD MHGQRVWNL SURGXNWX : GREU]H IXQNFMRQXMąFHMJRVSRGDUFH]D]Z\F]DMPLHĞFLVLĊRQDZSU]HG]LDOH±>1DXJKWRQ V@ &KLQ\RGSRQDGODWQDOHĪąGRQDMV]\EFLHMUR]ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊJRVSRGDUHNQD ĞZLHFLH:ODWDFK;;ZLHNXĞUHGQLRURF]QHWHPSRZ]URVWXUHDOQHJR3.%Z\- QRVLáRLZ]URVáRGRZRNUHVLH±DZ]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\SU]H-NUDF]DMąF\XWU]\PDáVLĊDĪGRNRĔFDURNX'RSLHURNU\]\VJRVSRGDUF]\ ODW±VSRZRGRZDáVSRZROQLHQLHG\QDPLNLNWyUHMHGQDNZSRUyZQDQLXGR LQQ\FKNUDMyZE\áRUHODW\ZQLHQLHZLHONLH=JRGQLH]GDQ\PL0LĊG]\QDURGRZHJR

UMCS



,1:(67<&-($:=5267*2632'$5&=<&+,1:/$7$&+±

)XQGXV]X :DOXWRZHJR WHPSR Z]URVWX 3.% &KLQ Z  URNX Z\QRVLáR  L VSDGáR GR  Z URNX  L  Z  7HPSR Z]URVWX ĞZLDWRZHJR 3.% Z\QRVLáRZURNXLVSDGáRZRNUHVLH±RGSRZLHGQLRGR L±>,0)@ 'XĪHMG\QDPLFHZ]URVWX3.%WRZDU]\V]\á\EDUG]RZ\VRNLHLURVQąFHVWRS\ NUDMRZ\FK RV]F]ĊGQRĞFL L LQZHVW\FML 6WRSD RV]F]ĊGQRĞFL Z]URVáD ]  3.% ZODWDFK±GR3.%ZRNUHVLH±DVWRSDLQZHVW\FML] GR  : URNX  Z\ĪV]D QLĪ Z &KLQDFK VWRSD RV]F]ĊGQRĞFL Z\VWĊSRZDáD MHG\QLHZNUDMDFKHNVSRUWXMąF\FKURSĊQDIWRZą.DWDUL.XZHMW>,0) @3RQDGWRQDOHĪ\SRGNUHĞOLüĪHVWRSDLQZHVW\FMLZ&KLQDFKFLąJOHSR]RVWDMH QLĪV]DRGVWRS\RV]F]ĊGQRĞFL6SRZRGRZDQHMHVWWRV]HUHJLHPF]\QQLNyZZĞUyG NWyU\FKQDOHĪ\Z\PLHQLüVSU]\MDMąFąVWUXNWXUĊZLHNRZąVSRáHF]HĔVWZDJáĊERNR ]DNRU]HQLRQąWUDG\FMĊRV]F]ĊG]DQLDRUD]QLVNąHIHNW\ZQRĞüLQLHSHáQ\UR]ZyMV\-VWHPX]DEH]SLHF]HQLDVSRáHF]QHJR3RQDGWRLVWQLHMąFHOLF]QHUHJXODFMHOLPLWXMąFH Z\Zy]NDSLWDáXSR]DJUDQLFHSDĔVWZDVNXWHF]QLHRJUDQLF]DMąUR]PLDU\LQZHVW\FML ]DJUDQLF]Q\FK &KLQ VSUDZLDMąF UyZQRF]HĞQLH ĪH ZLĊNV]RĞü NDSLWDáX SR]RVWDMH Z NUDMX : ODWDFK ± XG]LDá VNXPXORZDQ\FK ]DJUDQLF]Q\FK LQZHVW\FML EH]SRĞUHGQLFK =,% Z 3.% Z]UyVá ]  GR  FR Z SRUyZQDQLX GR LQQ\FK NUDMyZ R SRGREQ\P SR]LRPLH UR]ZRMX JRVSRGDUF]HJR MHVW JRUV]\P Z\QLNLHP :URNXZ%UD]\OLLXG]LDáVNXPXORZDQ\FK=,%VWDQRZLá3.%DZ5RVML >81&7$'@ 7DEHOD7HPSRZ]URVWXUHDOQHJR3.%ĞUHGQLRRNUHVRZRZRUD]VWRS\LQZHVW\FML LRV]F]ĊGQRĞFLĞUHGQLRRNUHVRZRZODWDFK±Z3.% ± ± ± ± PKB     ,QZHVW\FMH     2V]F]ĊGQRĞFL     ħUyGáRRSUDFRZDQLHZáDVQHQDSRGVWDZLHGDQ\FK,0)>@ &]\QQLNRZDGHNRPSR]\FMDZ]URVWX3.%Z&KLQDFKZODWDFK±SU]HSUR-ZDG]RQDSU]H]4+RQJELQDL)1HXPDQQDVWDQRZLSRWZLHUG]HQLHĪHSRGVWDZRZ\P F]\QQLNLHPZ]URVWXJRVSRGDUF]HJRE\áDDNXPXODFMDNDSLWDáXSRUWDEHOD=QDF]H-QLHLORĞFLRZHJRXG]LDáXSUDF\VSDGDáRZFDá\PDQDOL]RZDQ\PRNUHVLH:ODWDFK ]ZLĊNV]HQLH]DWUXGQLHQLDZSU]\F]\QLDáRVLĊGRZ]URVWX3.%&KLQZODWDFK MXĪW\ONRZDZODWDFK±Z2GURNXGRNRĔFD XG]LDáSUDF\RV]DFRZDQRQD

UMCS

 720$6=%,$à2:Ą6 7DEHOD8G]LDá]DWUXGQLHQLDQDNáDGyZNDSLWDáRZ\FKL7)3ZHZ]URĞFLHJRVSRGDUF]\PZ&KLQDFK ZODWDFK±Z =DWUXGQLHQLH .DSLWDá TFP ±    ±    ±    ±    ħUyGáR+RQJELQ1HXPDQQ>V@ 8G]LDáNDSLWDáXRGSRF]ąWNXODW;;ZLHNXDĪGRURNXE\áUHODW\ZQLH VWDELOQ\LRVF\ORZDáZRNyá=QDF]HQLHLQZHVW\FML]ZLĊNV]\áRVLĊLVWRWQLHZOD-WDFK±±GR1DOHĪ\MHGQDNSDPLĊWDüĪHF]\QQLNLHP]DSHZQLDMąF\P GáXJRRNUHVRZ\Z]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\NUDMXMHVWSRVWĊSWHFKQRORJLF]Q\LEĊGąFDMHJR VNXWNLHPZ\ĪV]DHIHNW\ZQRĞüZ\NRU]\VWDQLDSUDF\LNDSLWDáX*G\WHPSRDGDSWDFML QRZ\FKWHFKQRORJLLMHVW]E\WQLVNLHDLQQRZDF\MQRĞüJRVSRGDUNLQLH]DGRZDODMąFD QDVWĊSXMHZ\JDVDQLHZ]URVWXJRVSRGDUF]HJR6WDQGDUGRZ\PPLHUQLNLHPVáXĪąF\P GRRFHQ\XG]LDáXSRVWĊSXWHFKQRORJLF]QHJRMHVWFDáNRZLWDSURGXNW\ZQRĞüF]\QQLNyZ Z\WZyUF]\FK7)37RWDO)DFWRU3URGXFWLYLW\:VNXWHNSURZDG]RQHMSU]H]ZáDG]H&KLQ SROLW\NL]ZLĊNV]DQLDQDNáDGyZQDSUDFHEDGDZF]RUR]ZRMRZHSURPRZDQLDV]NROQLFWZD Z\ĪV]HJRLWZRU]HQLDNRU]\VWQ\FKZDUXQNyZGODQDSá\ZX]DJUDQLF]Q\FKLQZHVW\FML EH]SRĞUHGQLFKORNRZDQ\FKZSU]HP\VáDFKZ\VRNLFKWHFKQRORJLLXG]LDá7)3ZHZ]URĞFLH 3.%Z&KLQDFKZ]UyVáZODWDFK±]GRSRUWDEHOD1LHVWHW\ JOREDOQ\NU\]\VJRVSRGDUF]\ODW±NWyU\PLDáUHODW\ZQLHQLHZLHONLZSá\ZQD Z]URVW3.%&KLQVSRZRGRZDáZ\UDĨQ\VSDGHNHIHNW\ZQRĞFLZ\NRU]\VWDQLDF]\QQLNyZ SURGXNFML8G]LDá7)3 ZHZ]URĞFLH3.%ZODWDFK±]PQLHMV]\áVLĊGR 6WRSDLQZHVW\FMLLUR]PLDU\NDSLWDáXSURGXNF\MQHJRZ&KLQDFK :LHOXHNRQRPLVWyZLNRPHQWDWRUyZJRVSRGDUF]\FKXZDĪDĪHJRVSRGDUND&KLQ MHVWSU]HLQZHVWRZDQDLQLHGDVLĊXWU]\PDüZ\VRNLHMG\QDPLNLZ]URVWX3.%RSDU- WHJRQDGXĪ\FKQDNáDGDFKNDSLWDáRZ\FK&]\U]HF]\ZLĞFLHREDZ\WHVąX]DVDGQLR-QHDUR]PLDU\LQZHVW\FML]E\WZLHONLH"+LVWRU\F]QHGRĞZLDGF]HQLD-DSRQLLL.RUHL 3RáXGQLRZHM SRWZLHUG]DMą ĪH ]MDZLVNR PDOHMąF\FK HIHNWyZ ] LQZHVW\FML MHVW VLOQH LZSU]\SDGNXW\FKJRVSRGDUHNSRMDZLDáRVLĊJG\VWRSDLQZHVW\FMLRVLąJDáD± 3.%:&KLQDFKVWRSDLQZHVW\FMLZURNXSU]HNUDF]DáD3.%DSURJQR]\ 0LĊG]\QDURGRZHJR)XQGXV]X:DOXWRZHJRQDODWD±]DNáDGDMąMHMVSDGHN R]DOHGZLHSNWSURFHQWRZ\>,0)@ 2GPLHQQ\REUD]X]\VNDP\JG\SRGVWDZąRFHQ\EĊG]LHSR]LRPNDSLWDáXSU]\SDGD-MąF\QDMHGQHJR]DWUXGQLRQHJR0RĪHP\WXWDMSU]\WRF]\üZ\QLNLGZyFKDQDOL]NWyUH

UMCS

 ,1:(67<&-($:=5267*2632'$5&=<&+,1:/$7$&+± VWDá\VLĊSU]HGPLRWHPV]HURNLHMG\VNXVMLDNDGHPLFNLHM$XWRUDPLSLHUZV]HMVąHNVSHUFL EDQNX*ROGPDQ6DFKV2V]DFRZDOLRQLĪH]DVyENDSLWDáXQDMHGQHJRPLHV]NDĔFD &KLQZURNXZ\QRVLáRNRáRGRODUyZFRVWDQRZLáRQLHFDáH]DVREX NDSLWDáXSHUFDSLWDZ6WDQDFK=MHGQRF]RQ\FKLZ.RUHL3RáXGQLRZHM>+RQJELQ  V @ *G\ ]DVyE NDSLWDáX RGQLHVLHP\ GR OLF]E\ SUDFRZQLNyZ OXND G]LHOąFD &KLQ\RGZ\ĪHMUR]ZLQLĊW\FKJRVSRGDUHNRNDĪHVLĊMHV]F]HZLĊNV]D:URNX ]DVyENDSLWDáXQD]DWUXGQLRQHJRVWDQRZLáZ&KLQDFK]DVREXNDSLWDáXZ6WDQDFK =MHGQRF]RQ\FKLZ.RUHL3RáXGQLRZHM>+RQJELQV@1DWRPLDVW$%DW-VRQL-=KDQJZ\ND]DOLĪH]DVyENDSLWDáXQDPLHV]NDĔFDZ&KLQDFKZURNX QLHSU]HNUDF]Dá]DVREXNDSLWDáXQDPLHV]NDĔFD6WDQyZ=MHGQRF]RQ\FKZURNX D]DWHPZRNUHVLHJG\86$]QDMGRZDá\VLĊQDSRGREQ\PSR]LRPLHUR]ZRMX JRVSRGDUF]HJR FR REHFQLH &KLQ\ >%DWVRQ =KDQJ @ 3U]HGVWDZLRQH ZDUWRĞFL VXJHUXMą ĪH Z &KLQDFK SRPLPR EDUG]R Z\VRNLHM VWRS\ LQZHVW\FML FLąJOH LVWQLHMą SU]HVáDQNLGRSRQRV]HQLDZ\VRNLFKQDNáDGyZNDSLWDáRZ\FK

:W\PPLHMVFXZDUWR]DGDüNROHMQHS\WDQLHF]\SU]HGVWDZLRQHSRZ\ĪHMGDQH U]HF]\ZLĞFLH Vą DGHNZDWQH GR RFHQ\ RSW\PDOQRĞFL VWRS\ LQZHVW\FML Z &KLQDFK" 1DOHĪ\ ]ZUyFLü XZDJĊ QD NLOND LVWRWQ\FK HOHPHQWyZ 3RUyZQXMąF ]DVyE NDSLWDáX SU]\SDGDMąF\ QD PLHV]NDĔFDSUDFRZQLND PXVLP\ XZ]JOĊGQLü RVLąJQLĊW\ SR]LRP UR]ZRMXJRVSRGDUF]HJR3.%SHUFDSLWD:\NRU]\VWXMąFGDQH*ROGPDQ6DFKVNDSLWDá SHUFDSLWD L%DQNXĝZLDWRZHJR3.%SHUFDSLWDREOLF]RQRZVSyáF]\QQLNNRUHODFML OLQLRZHM GOD URNX  8]\VNDQD ZDUWRĞü  SRWZLHUG]D EDUG]R VLOQą NRUHODFMĊ PLĊG]\]PLHQQ\PLSRUU\VXQHN:JUXSLHNUDMyZR]EOLĪRQ\PGR&KLQ3.%QD PLHV]NDĔFD%UD]\OLD5RVMD0HNV\N53$,QGRQH]MDSR]LRPNDSLWDáXSHUFDSLWD PLHĞFLáVLĊZSU]HG]LDOHRGGRW\VLĊF\GRODUyZD]DWHP]EOLĪRQ\PGRFKLĔVNLHJR 5ð  0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 5\VXQHN.RUHODFMDSR]LRPXNDSLWDáXSHUFDSLWDRĞSLRQRZDL3.%SHUFDSLWDRĞSR]LRPD ZURNXZZ\EUDQ\FKNUDMDFK ħUyGáRRSUDFRZDQLHZáDVQHQDSRGVWDZLHGDQ\FK*ROGPDQ6DFKV>V@:RUOG%DQN>@

UMCS

 720$6=%,$à2:Ą6

,VWRWQ\ZSá\ZQDZ\VRNRĞüNDSLWDáXQDPLHV]NDĔFDLSUDFRZQLNDPDMąF]\QQLNL GHPRJUDILF]QH L VWUXNWXUD JRVSRGDUNL =DVRE\ VLá\ URERF]HM Z &KLQDFK V]DFRZD-QR Z URNX  QD  POQ SUDFRZQLNyZ FR VWDQRZLáR EOLVNR  ĞZLDWRZHJR ]DVREX SUDF\ >:RUOG %DQN @ 5yZQRF]HĞQLH ]DOHGZLH  VSRĞUyG QLFK E\áR ]DWUXGQLRQ\FK Z VHNWRU]H SU]HP\VáRZ\P  ]DĞ Z UROQLFWZLH D  Z XVáXJDFK &KDUDNWHU\VW\F]Qą FHFKą UROQLFWZD FKLĔVNLHJR MHVW UHODW\ZQLH QLH-ZLHONL VWRSLHĔ Z\NRU]\VWDQLD NDSLWDáX L PDáD PHFKDQL]DFMD FR SU]HNáDGD VLĊ QD QLVNL XG]LDá Z WZRU]HQLX ZDUWRĞFL GRGDQHM :  URNX Z VHNWRU]H UROQLF]\P SRZVWDáR3.%&KLQZSU]HP\ĞOHDZXVáXJDFK>:RUOG%DQN @ -DN ]DWHP ]PLHQLą VLĊ VWDW\VW\NL L Z]JOĊGQD SR]\FMD &KLQ JG\ ]DVRE\ ND-SLWDáX RGQLHVLHP\ MHG\QLH GR SUDFRZQLNyZ ]DPLHV]NXMąF\FK REV]DU\ PLHMVNLH" :EUHZ RF]HNLZDQLRP SRSUDZD ZVNDĨQLND WHFKQLF]QHJR X]EURMHQLD SUDF\ EĊG]LH QLHZLHOND =DVyE NDSLWDáX QD SUDFRZQLND Z &KLQDFK Z URNX  VWDQRZLá ]D-OHGZLH  NDSLWDáX SU]\SDGDMąFHJR QD SUDFRZQLND Z -DSRQLL  Z 6WDQDFK =MHGQRF]RQ\FK  Z .RUHL 3RáXGQLRZHM L  Z 7DMODQGLL >*ROGPDQ 6DFKV V±@ (IHNW\ZQRĞüLQZHVW\FMLLVWRSLHĔZ\NRU]\VWDQLDNDSLWDáXSURGXNF\MQHJR (IHNW\ZQRĞüLQZHVW\FMLPRĪHP\RFHQLüQDSRGVWDZLHNODV\F]QHJRZSURZDG]RQHJR SU]H](+DUURGDZVNDĨQLNDSU]\URVWRZHMNDSLWDáRFKáRQQRĞFL,&25±,QFUHPHQWDO &DSLWDO2XWSXW5DWLR3RND]XMHRQRLOHMHGQRVWHNWU]HEDZGDQ\PRNUHVLH]ZLĊN-V]\üNDSLWDáSURGXNF\MQ\E\ZDUWRĞü3.%Z]URVáDRMHGQRVWNĊ,PQLĪV]\,&25 W\PEDUG]LHMHIHNW\ZQHVąLQZHVW\FMH2EOLF]DVLĊJRQDSRGVWDZLHSURVWHMIRUPXá\ ZNWyUHM IR]QDF]DLQZHVW\FMHDY3.% 1 Y Y Y ICOR _'   =D]Z\F]DMSR]LRPZVNDĨQLNDSU]\URVWRZHMNDSLWDáRFKáRQQRĞFLRVF\OXMHZRNyá *G\ VSDGD SRQLĪHM WHM ZDUWRĞFL PRĪHP\ PyZLü R EDUG]R Z\VRNLHM HIHNW\ZQRĞFL QDNáDGyZLQZHVW\F\MQ\FKNWyUDF]ĊVWRZ\VWĊSXMHQDZF]HVQ\PHWDSLHLQGXVWULDOL-]DFMLJG\UHODW\ZQLHQLHZLHONLHQDNáDG\LQZHVW\F\MQHSU]\F]\QLDMąVLĊGRRVLąJDQLD Z\VRNLHJR Z]URVWX SURGXNFML : &KLQDFK ZVNDĨQLN ,&25 Z ODWDFK  SRGOHJDá GXĪ\PIOXNWXDFMRPZ\ZRá\ZDQ\PJáyZQLHZDKDQLDPL3.%:LGRF]Q\QDU\VXQNX  Z]URVW Z ODWDFK ± ZLą]Dá VLĊ ] JZDáWRZQ\P VSDGNLHP G\QDPLNL 3.% SRZ\GDU]HQLDFKQDSODFX7LDQ¶DQPHQNWyU\FKNRQVHNZHQFMĊVWDQRZLá\QDáRĪRQH QD&KLQ\VDQNFMHHNRQRPLF]QH5yZQLHĪZ]URVW,&25SRGNRQLHFODWE\áVSR-ZRGRZDQ\VSRZROQLHQLHPJRVSRGDUF]\PLNU\]\VHPD]MDW\FNLPDQLHREQLĪHQLHP

HIHNW\ZQRĞFLLQZHVW\FML1DWRPLDVWWUZDMąF\RGURNXZ]URVWZVNDĨQLNDSU]\UR-UMCS

 ,1:(67<&-($:=5267*2632'$5&=<&+,1:/$7$&+± VWRZHMNDSLWDáRFKáRQQRĞFLPRĪHP\ZLą]Dü]HVSRZROQLHQLHPJRVSRGDUF]\P:ODWDFK ±G\QDPLND3.%]PQLHMV]\áDVLĊFRSU]\VWDáHMVWRSLHLQZHVW\FMLSU]HáRĪ\áR VLĊQDZ]URVW,&253URJQR]\0):QDODWD±VXJHUXMąĪHHIHNW\ZQRĞü QDNáDGyZLQZHVW\F\MQ\FKZ&KLQDFKEĊG]LHVLĊREQLĪDü 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 5\VXQHN:VNDĨQLNSU]\URVWRZHMNDSLWDáRFKáRQQRĞFLZ&KLQDFKZODWDFK± ODWD±±SURJQR]D ħUyGáRRSUDFRZDQLHZáDVQHQDSRGVWDZLHGDQ\FK,0)>@

3RUyZQXMąF Z\VRNRĞü ZVNDĨQLND ,&25 ] LQQ\PL JRVSRGDUNDPL $]ML NWyUH ZODWDFKL;;ZLHNXRVLąJDá\QDMZ\ĪV]HWHPSRZ]URVWXJRVSRGDUF]HJR PRĪHP\ZVND]DüQDSHZQHSUDZLGáRZRĞFL-DSRQLDZODWDFKRUD].RUHD3R-áXGQLRZDL7DMZDQZODWDFK;;ZLHNXFKDUDNWHU\]RZDá\VLĊG\QDPLNą3.% SRUyZQ\ZDOQąGRFKLĔVNLHMSRURNX:\QLNLWHRVLąJDá\MHGQDNSU]\]QDF]QLH QLĪV]\FKQDNáDGDFKLQZHVW\F\MQ\FKDW\PVDP\PQLĪV]\P,&253.%-DSRQLL ZODWDFK±UyVáZWHPSLHSU]\VWRSLHLQZHVW\FMLRUD],&25  .RUHD 3RáXGQLRZD Z ODWDFK ± X]\VNDáD Z]URVW QD SR]LRPLH  SU]\ LQZHVW\FMDFK VWDQRZLąF\FK  3.% ,&25  D 7DMZDQ Z]URVW 3.% UyZQ\SU]\VWRSLHLQZHVW\FML,&25'DQHWHSRWZLHUG]DMąEDUG]R QLVNąHIHNW\ZQRĞüQDNáDGyZLQZHVW\F\MQ\FKZ&KLQDFKZSRUyZQDQLXGRLQQ\FK NUDMyZ

 720$6=%,$à2:Ą6 7DEHOD6WRSDLQZHVW\FMLZSURFHQWDFK3.%WHPSRZ]URVWX3.%LZVNDĨQLNLSU]\URVWRZHM NDSLWDáRFKáRQQRĞFL,&25Z&KLQDFK-DSRQLL.RUHL3RáXGQLRZHMLQD7DMZDQLHZZ\EUDQ\FKODWDFK 6WRSDLQZHVW\FML  :]URVW3.%  ,&25   &KLQ\± ± ± ±             -DSRQLD±    .RUHD3G±    7DMZDQ±    ħUyGáRRSUDFRZDQLHZáDVQHQDSRGVWDZLHGDQ\FKWDEHOLRUD].ZDQ>V@ =DVDGQRĞüQRZ\FKLQZHVW\FMLPRĪHP\RFHQLüQDSRGVWDZLHZVNDĨQLNDZ\NR-U]\VWDQLD PDMąWNX SURGXNF\MQHJR 3RND]XMH RQ VWRVXQHN DNWXDOQHM SURGXNFML Z\-WZDU]DQHMSU]\Z\NRU]\VWDQLX]DLQVWDORZDQ\FKPDV]\QGRSURGXNFMLSRWHQFMDOQHM Z\VWĊSXMąFHM Z V\WXDFML SHáQHJR Z\NRU]\VWDQLD PRF\ ]DLQVWDORZDQ\FK XU]ąG]HĔ SURGXNF\MQ\FK3RPLDUQDVWĊSXMHQDSR]LRPLHPLNURHNRQRPLF]Q\PSRV]F]HJyOQ\FK SU]HGVLĊELRUVWZ6]DFXMHVLĊĪHRSW\PDOQ\SR]LRPZ\NRU]\VWDQLDPDMąWNXZ\QRVL RNRáR*G\ZVNDĨQLNSU]HNUDF]DSRMDZLDVLĊ]DJURĪHQLHLQIODFMą1DWR-PLDVWVSDGHNSRQLĪHMR]QDF]DZ\WZRU]HQLHVLĊGXĪHMOXNLSURGXNF\MQHMNWyUD PRĪH E\ü VSRZRGRZDQD ]DáDPDQLHP SRS\WX OXE SU]HLQZHVWRZDQLHP JRVSRGDUNL >%HUQGW0RUULVRQ@1DMEDUG]LHMNRPSOHNVRZHGDQHGRW\F]ąFHZ\NRU]\VWDQLD PDMąWNXSURGXNF\MQHJRZ&KLQDFK]HEUDOLHNVSHUFL0LĊG]\QDURGRZHJR)XQGXV]X :DOXWRZHJR >,0)  V @ 2G SRF]ąWNX ODW  ;; ZLHNX DĪ GR URNX  VWRSLHĔZ\NRU]\VWDQLD]DLQVWDORZDQ\FKXU]ąG]HĔSURGXNF\MQ\FKSU]HNUDF]Dá DZSLHUZV]HMSRáRZLHODW;;ZLHNXZ\QRVLáSRZ\ĪHMSRUU\VXQHN2G URNXOXNDSURGXNF\MQDSRJáĊELDVLĊDZ\NRU]\VWDQLHPDMąWNXSURGXNF\MQHJR PDOHMH : URNX  ZVNDĨQLN VSDGá GR  FR E\áR VSRZRGRZDQH ]DáDPDQLHP SRS\WX QD U\QNDFK ĞZLDWRZ\FK ZVNXWHN JOREDOQHJR NU\]\VX JRVSRGDUF]HJR MDN UyZQLHĪXUXFKRPLHQLHPSU]H]ZáDG]H&KLQZURNXSURJUDPXLQZHVW\F\MQHJR PDMąFHJRSRGWU]\PDüZ]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\

2FHQDVWRSQLDZ\NRU]\VWDQLDPDMąWNXSURGXNF\MQHJRZ&KLQDFKQDWOHLQQ\FK NUDMyZ Z ODWDFK ± UyZQLHĪ MHVW QHJDW\ZQD 2 LOH Z RNUHVLH ± Z ZLĊNV]RĞFL JRVSRGDUHN GRPLQXMąFą WHQGHQFMą E\á VSDGHN Z\NRU]\VWDQLD PRĪOL-ZRĞFLSURGXNF\MQ\FK]ZLą]DQ\]NU\]\VHPLPDOHMąF\PSRS\WHPRW\OHRGURNX  Z\NRU]\VWDQLH NDSLWDáX Z]UDVWDáR GR SR]LRPX VSU]HG NU\]\VX : 6WDQDFK =MHGQRF]RQ\FK Z  URNX ZVNDĨQLN WHQ RVLąJQąá  Z 1LHPF]HFK  ZH )UDQFML  D Z :LHONLHM %U\WDQLL  >)HGHUDO 5HVHUYH  V  (XURVWDW



,1:(67<&-($:=5267*2632'$5&=<&+,1:/$7$&+±

@:\QLNLNUDMyZUR]ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊUyZQLHĪXOHJá\SRSUDZLH:%UD]\OLLZ\-NRU]\VWDQLH PRĪOLZRĞFL SURGXNF\MQ\FK RV]DFRZDQR QD  Z ,QGRQH]ML QD  0DOH]ML±)LOLSLQDFK±.RUHL3RáXGQLRZHM±53$±DMHG\QLH Z7DMODQGLLZVNDĨQLNSR]RVWDZDáQDSR]LRPLH]EOLĪRQ\PGR&KLQ>7UDGLQJ (FRQRPLFV@ 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 USA Chiny 5\VXQHN6WRSLHĔZ\NRU]\VWDQLDPDMąWNXSURGXNF\MQHJRZ&KLQDFKL6WDQDFK=MHGQRF]RQ\FK ZODWDFK±Z ħUyGáRRSUDFRZDQLHZáDVQHQDSRGVWDZLHGDQ\FK,0)>V@)HGHUDO5HVHUYH>V@ =DNRĔF]HQLH 3U]HSURZDG]RQDDQDOL]DVWDQRZLSRGVWDZĊGRVIRUPXáRZDQLDNLONXZQLRVNyZ 3RSLHUZV]HF]\QQLNRZDGHNRPSR]\FMDSRND]XMHĪHQDMZLĊNV]\XG]LDáZHZ]URĞFLH UHDOQ\P3.%ZODWDFK±PLDá\QDNáDG\NDSLWDáRZHURVQąFHG]LĊNLZ\VR-NLPLQZHVW\FMRPNWyUHE\á\ILQDQVRZDQHNUDMRZ\PLRV]F]ĊGQRĞFLDPL0HFKDQL]P WHQ]DSHZQLDá&KLQRPEDUG]RZ\VRNąG\QDPLNĊZ]URVWX3.%NWyUDSR]RVWDZDáD UHODW\ZQLHRGSRUQDQDZDKDQLDNRQLXQNWXU\ZJRVSRGDUFHĞZLDWRZHM 3RGUXJLHVWRSDLQZHVW\FMLZ&KLQDFKQDOHĪ\GRQDMZ\ĪV]\FKQDĞZLHFLHL]QDF]QLH SU]HZ\ĪV]DVWRS\LQZHVW\FMLFKDUDNWHU\]XMąFH-DSRQLĊL.RUHĊ3RáXGQLRZąZRNUH-VDFKLFKQDMV]\EV]HJRZ]URVWXJRVSRGDUF]HJR=GUXJLHMMHGQDNVWURQ\JRVSRGDUND FKLĔVND E\áD SU]H] ZLHOH ODW QLHGRLQZHVWRZDQD L FLąJOH LVWQLHMą GXĪH PRĪOLZRĞFL SRZLĊNV]DQLDNDSLWDáXSURGXNF\MQHJRRUD]LQIUDVWUXNWXU\'RVWĊSQHVWDW\VW\NLSR-ND]XMąĪHSR]LRPNDSLWDáXSURGXNF\MQHJRQDMHGQHJR]DWUXGQLRQHJRMHVW]QDF]QLH QLĪV]\QLĪZ6WDQDFK=MHGQRF]RQ\FKL-DSRQLLDOHUyZQLHĪQLĪV]\QLĪZZLĊNV]RĞFL NUDMyZUR]ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊ6\WXDFMLQLH]PLHQLDSRPLQLĊFLHZDQDOL]LHSUDFRZQLNyZ ]REV]DUyZQLH]XUEDQL]RZDQ\FK

UMCS

 720$6=%,$à2:Ą6

3R WU]HFLH HIHNW\ZQRĞü LQZHVW\FML PRĪHP\ RFHQLü QD SRGVWDZLH ZVNDĨQLND SU]\URVWRZHMNDSLWDáRFKáRQQRĞFL,&25$QDOL]DMHJRZDUWRĞFLZVND]XMHĪHDĪGR NU\]\VXJRVSRGDUF]HJRODW±HIHNW\ZQRĞüLQZHVW\FMLE\áDZ\VRNDD,&25 PLHĞFLáVLĊZW\SRZ\P]DNUHVLH±-HGQDNSRUyZQDQLHHIHNW\ZQRĞFLLQZHVW\FML Z &KLQDFK ] KLVWRU\F]Q\PL Z\QLNDPL -DSRQLL L .RUHL 3RáXGQLRZHM SRND]XMH ĪH RVLąJDá\RQHSRUyZQ\ZDOQHWHPSRZ]URVWX3.%SU]\QLĪV]\FKLQZHVW\FMDFK3R-QDGWRQHJDW\ZQLHQDOHĪ\RFHQLüZ\UDĨQ\Z]URVW,&25SRURNXĞZLDGF]ąF\ R]PQLHMV]DMąFHMVLĊHIHNW\ZQRĞFLHNVWHQV\ZQ\FKLQZHVW\FML2]QDF]DWRGOD&KLQ SRWU]HEĊ]PLDQ\PRGHOXZ]URVWXJRVSRGDUF]HJRNWyU\ZZLĊNV]\PVWRSQLXRSLHUDü VLĊPXVLQDSRVWĊSLHWHFKQRORJLF]Q\PLQQRZDF\MQRĞFLLNDSLWDOHOXG]NLP 3RF]ZDUWHVWRSLHĔZ\NRU]\VWDQLDPDMąWNXSURGXNF\MQHJRZ&KLQDFKRGSRáRZ\ ODW;;ZLHNXDĪGRURNXE\áZ\VRNLFRSRWZLHUG]DáR]DVDGQRĞüZ\VRNLFK QDNáDGyZLQZHVW\F\MQ\FK-HGQDNZURNXSRMDZLáDVLĊGXĪDOXNDSURGXNF\MQD DVWRSLHĔZ\NRU]\VWDQLD]DLQVWDORZDQ\FKPDV]\QV]DFRZDQ\MHVWQD]DOHGZLH :LQQ\FKNUDMDFKUHJLRQXLZQDMZ\ĪHMUR]ZLQLĊW\FKJRVSRGDUNDFKOXNDSURGXNF\MQD UyZQLHĪZ\VWĊSRZDáDZODWDFK±MHGQDNRGURNXV\VWHPDW\F]QLHVLĊ ]PQLHMV]D:&KLQDFKGRPLQXMHWHQGHQFMDVSDGNRZD %LEOLRJUDILD  %DWVRQ$=KDQJ-7KHJUHDWUHEDODQFLQJ,±GRHV&KLQDLQYHVWWRRPXFK" ³*.'UDJRQRPLFV UHVHDUFKQRWH´6HSWHPEHU

 %HUQGW ( 0RUULVRQ - &DSDFLW\ 8WLOL]DWLRQ 0HDVXUHV 8QGHUO\LQJ (FRQRPLF 7KHRU\ DQG DQ

$OWHUQDWLYH$SSURDFK³$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ´YRO  'RPDU('&DSLWDO([SDQVLRQ5DWHRI*URZWKDQG(PSOR\PHQW ³(FRQRPHWULFD´YRO  (XURVWDW&XUUHQWOHYHORIFDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQLQPDQXIDFWXULQJLQGXVWU\KWWSHSSHXURVWDW HFHXURSDHX  )HGHUDO5HVHUYH6WDWLVWLFDO5HOHDVH,QGXVWULDO3URGXFWLRQDQG&DSDFLW\8WLOL]DWLRQ 'HFHPEHU   *ROGPDQ6DFKV*OREDO(FRQRPLFV&KLQDKDVQ¶WLQYHVWHGWRRPXFK\HWEXWOHYHUDJHLVPRUHRI DFRQVWUDLQW³$VLD(FRQRPLFV$QDO\VW´6HSWHPEHU  +DUURG5$Q(VVD\LQ'\QDPLF7KHRU\³(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO´YRO  +RQJELQ4&KLQD,QVLGH2XW:KDW2YHULQYHVWPHQW"³&KLQD(FRQRPLFV´)HEUXDU\  +RQJELQ41HXPDQQ)$VLD¶V%LWWHU0HGLFLQH³$VLDQ(FRQRPLFV´QR  ,0):RUOG(FRQRPLF2XWORRN'DWDEDVH 2FWREHUKWWSZZZLPIRUJH[WHUQDOSXEV IWZHRZHRGDWDLQGH[DVS[  ,0)3HRSOH¶V5HSXEOLFRI&KLQD$UWLFOH,9&RQVXOWDWLRQ ,0)&RXQWU\5HSRUWQR -XO\  .ZDQ&+,PSURYLQJ,QYHVWPHQW(IILFLHQF\LQ&KLQDWKURXJK3ULYDWL]DWLRQDQG)LQDQFLDO5HIRUP ³1RPXUD&DSLWDO0DUNHW5HYLHZ´YROQR

 1DXJKWRQ % 7KH &KLQHVH (FRQRP\ 7UDQVLWLRQ DQG *URZWK 7KH 0,7 3UHVV &DPEULGJH DQG /RQGRQ

 7UDGLQJ(FRQRPLFVKWWSZZZWUDGLQJHFRQRPLFVFRPFRXQWU\OLVWFDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQ  81&7$'81&7$'6WDW KWWSXQFWDGVWDWXQFWDGRUJ

 ,1:(67<&-($:=5267*2632'$5&=<&+,1:/$7$&+±  :RUOG%DQN:RUOG'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV KWWSGDWDEDQNZRUOGEDQNRUJGDWDGRZ-QORDG:',BH[FHO]LS ,QYHVWPHQWDQG&KLQD¶VHFRQRPLFJURZWKLQWKH\HDUV± 7KLVSDSHULQYHVWLJDWHV&KLQD¶VHFRQRPLFJURZWKZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHJURZWKRILQYHVWPHQWLQWKH \HDUV±,WILQGVWKDWLQYHVWPHQWFRQWULEXWHGWRDURXQGRQHKDOIRI&KLQD¶V*'3JURZWKVLQFH  &KLQD¶V LQYHVWPHQW*'3 UDWLR LV YHU\ KLJK FRPSDUHG WR RWKHU FRXQWULHV EXW FDSLWDO VWRFN SHU ZRUNHULVVWLOOORZ%XWVLQFHWKHHIILFLHQF\RILQYHVWPHQWKDVGHWHULRUDWHG

UMCS