PREFACE
The pur pos e of this volume is to survey the s tate of the art of e c o n o m e t r i c m o d e l l i n g of ec o nom i e s of the C ME A c o u n t r i e s done by the R es ea rc h C roup of the CMEA C o u n t r i e s Mo d elling, a f f ili a ted wi t h the I ns titute of E c o n o m e t r i c s and S ta tistics, U n i v e r s i t y of Łódź. The i nc l ude d p ap ers h av e bee n p r e p a r e d on the b asis of r e s e -arch work and rep o r t s w i t h i n the r es e arc h p r o j e ć t 11.6 i ni tia- ded and f in ance d by the P ol is h M i n i s t r y of S c i e n c e ' a n d Hi g h e r
Edu-4
cat io n to w hich all the authors are very grateful.
The re s u lts of the par t i c u l a r sta ges of r es e a r c h work hav e been p r e s e n t e d ea r lie r at the int e rna t ion a l c o n f e r e n c e s and seminars.
The first paper of this volume c on ta in s the d e s c r i p t i o n of st r u c t u r e of the o pe ra t i o n a l v er sion s of the m o d e l s of the CMEA e c o n o m i e s and c o n d iti on al forecast of the d e v e l o p m e n t of the CMEA ec o no m i e s for 1985-1990.
The next p ap er s of this volume c o n c e r n the sectora l m o d e l s of the CMEA e co nom i es - fo r eig n trade i n v e stm e nts and employment. Spe c ial a tt ent i on has been pai d to the pr o b l e m s of for eig n trade m o d e l l i n g in a co n t e x t of li n kin g the n at ion a l mo d e l s of the E u r o -pe a n CMEA countries. The sec o nd pap er is an att e mpt of a p p l i c a t i o n of the trade share mat ri x app r o a c h to the lin kag e of the s ep a rat e n a t ion a l models, w h i le the fifth u t i l i z e s the "pool approach". In the pa per p r e s e n t i n g the a n a lys i s of the i n v est m e nts in the CMEA c o u n t r i e s two s ta ges of inv e stm en t p r o c e s s e s hav e be e n d i s t i n g u i s h -ed - 1 96 0- 1 9 7 5 c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the c o n s i d e r a b l e s t r u c t u r a l c h a n g e s and 19 7 6 -19 8 0 wit h the i nc r e a s i n g f o r e i g n lnd ebtness. The pr o b l e m s of m a n p o w e r m o d e l l i n g in the CMEA c ou ntries, b ot h de m a n d and supply are c o n s i d e r e d in the fourth paper.
In all the pa p e r s t he oretical p r i n c i p l e s of s p e c i f i c a t i o n and em p i r i c a l v al i d a t i o n of the a s s u m p t i o n s have b e e n included.
