By: Budiyono
D e l f t / N i j m e g e n , June 1988
I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r H y d r a u l i c and
S u p e r v i s o r s :
P r o f . i r . H. V e l s i n k i r . J.H.C. Wiersma i r . R. Moor
i r . N.W. van den Hazel i r . R. G r o e n v e l d E x a m i n a t i o n Committee: P r o f . i r . H. V e l s i n k P r o f . i r . W.F.T. van E l l e n i r . J.H.C. Wiersma i r . R. Moor
i r . N.W. van den Hazel i r . R. G r o e n v e l d T h i s s t u d y was u n d e r t a k e n f o r e d u c a t i o n a l purposes o n l y . A l t h o u g h i t i s based on an e x i s t i n g s i t u a t i o n and on r e a l i s t i c d a t a , t h e c o n c l u s i o n s o f t h e s t u d y do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y c o r r e s p o n d w i t h t h e i d e a s and c o n c l u s i o n s o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l members o f t h e MSc.-committee n o r o f t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e e m p l o y e r s .
f a m i l y , c o l l e a g u e s , s u p e r i o r s , and c o l l e g e a d v i s o r s .
I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r H y d r a u l i c and E n v i r o n m e n t a l E n g i n e e r i n g ( I H E ) , D e l f t : - P r o f . i r . W.A. Segeren - P r o f . i r . W.F.T. v a n E l l e n - i r . J.H.C. Wiersma - Dr. i r . P.J.M. de L a a t - i r . J.H. K o s t e r D e l f t U n i v e r s i t y o f T e c h n o l o g y , D e l f t : - P r o f . i r . H. V e l s i n k - i r . R. G r o e n v e l d
Haskoning, Royal D u t c h C o n s u l t i n g E n g i n e e r i n g , Nijmegen: - i r . N.W. van den Hazel
- i r . R. Moor - i n g . Topper - i n g . R. van d e r Laan - i r . J.L. W i l l e m s D i r e c t o r a t e G e n e r a l o f Sea Communication, J a k a r t a : - i r . Sadhu A d i s a s m i t a D i p l . HE P u b l i c P o r t C o r p o r a t i o n I I , J a k a r t a : - i r . R.J. L i n o D i p l . HE
The p r e s e n t s t u d y on t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f p e r s o n a l com p u t e r s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l l i n g f o r p o r t p l a n n i n g o f Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l , p o r t o f Palembang, I n d o n e s i a , was c a r r i e d o u t as a p a r t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t t o o b t a i n M.Sc degree o f IHE, D e l f t , t h e N e t h e r l a n d s . The main p r o b l e m w h i c h w i l l be s o l v e d i n t h i s s t u d y i s t h a t c o n c e r n i n g t h e Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l (MPT) c a p a c i t y : b e r t h i n g , cargo h a n d l i n g and c a r g o s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y w i t h i n t h e t i m e span o f development p l a n , u p t o 2005. The o b j e c t i v e o f t h e development p l a n i s t h e n d e f i n e d , i . e . t o p r o v i d e MPT t h e l e a s t - c o s t o f p o r t o p e r a t i o n c o n s i s t i n g o f p o r t i n v e s t m e n t , s h i p o p e r a t i o n a l c o s t i n p o r t , and cargo h a n d l i n g c o s t . Thus t h e r e l e v a n t c r i t e r i o n t o be used i s t h e optimi_
z a t i o n o f b e r t h l e n g t h , s t o r a g e f a c i l i t i e s and o t h e r m a j o r f i x e d i n v e s t m e n t . I n o r d e r t o f i n d t h e p r o p e r s o l u t i o n f o r t h e above p r o b l e m , t h e s t r a t e g y o f t h e development p l a n i s t h a t t h e l e s s c o s t p o t e n t i a l s o l u t i o n s h o u l d be f i r s t i n v e s t i g a t e d . Thus f i r s t i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s c o n c e r n i n g t h e o p e r a t i o n a l i m p r o v e -ment measures : t h e l o n g e r w o r k i n g t i m e and t h e more e f f e c t i v e • c a r g o handling., o p e r a t i o n . These measures are c o v e r e d i n t h e P o r t Improvement A c t i o n P l a n b e -i n g -implemented a t p r e s e n t . Only -i f t h e s e measures cannot s o l v e t h e above p r o b l e m , t h e e x p a n s i o n o f ex-i s t ex-i n g MPT o r even t h e c o n s t r u c t ex-i o n o f new t e r m ex-i n a l w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d .
The i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e f u t u r e MPT c a p a c i t y obvious^ l y n e c e s s i t a t e s t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e f u t u r e MPT de-mand : cargo f l o w and s h i p t r a f f i c . Based on t h e p r e s e n t m a r i t i m e p o l i c y and l o c a t i o n and f u n c t i o n o f MPT,several a s s u m t i o n s • were made : l i m i t e d s h u t t l e s e r v i c e T a n j u n g p r i o k P a l e m b a n g , c o n t i n u i t y o f p r e -s e n t -s h i p p i n g Slngapure-Palembang and LASH -s e r v i c e , l i t t l e d i v e r s i o n t o new deep-sea p o r t o f B e n g k u l u and f e r r y p o r t o f B a k a h u n i , g r a d u a l s h i f t f r o m m i d stream o p e r a t i o n t o MPT, and medium l e v e l o f c o n t a i -n e r i z a t i o -n . T o g e t h e r w i t h a s u m p t i o -n s made f o r each commodity, t h e r e s u l t i n g t r a f f i c f o r e c a s t - a t t h e MPT i s : 1986 1990 1995 2005 Cargo f l o w (000 t ) I n t e r n a t i o n a l 88.5 132.5 222 .0 437 .0 Domestic 218.5 267.5 345 .0 722 .0 ( T o t a l ) (307.0) (400.0) (567.0! ! 1159 .0 o f i n t . i n TEU 2140 4500 8000 19000 % c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n 16 23 35 49 Annual s h i p c a l l s 875 1083 1406 2662
f o r cargo h a n d l i n g and s t o r a g e a n a l y s i s . The a v a i -l a b i -l i t y o f t h e P e r s o n a -l P r o s i m s o f t w a r e p r o v i d e d by Haskoning l e d t o t h e use o f P r o s i m s i m u l a t i o n language f o r t h i s s t u d y . One main f e a t u r e o f t h i s s o f t w a r e i s t h a t i t i s d e s t i n e d f o r use on p e r s o n a l computer. The f o l l o w i n g b r i e f e x p l a n a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g v a r i o u s a s p e c t s i n t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l l -i n g o f MPT :
a. D e s i r e d o u t p u t s were d e t e r m i n e d m a i n l y based on the i d e n t i f i e d p r o b l e m and s p e c i f i e d purpose o f t h i s s t u d y . They can be grouped i n t o : t i m e r e l a t e d , c o s t r e l a t e d , and m i s c e l l a n e o u s o p e r a t i -on o u t p u t s . b. Data g a t h e r i n g aims a t : f o r i n p u t s ( t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t i e s , o p e r a t i o n a l p a r a m e t e r s , s h i p and cargo ) , f o r v a l i d a t i o n (1986 b e r t h u t i l i z a t i o n ) c. Model b u i l d i n g i n c l u d e s : s c h e m a t i z a t i o n , v e r b a l model ( o r c o n f i g u r a t i o n , s t r u c t u r e and p r o -cess d e s c r i p t i o n ) and c o d i n g / p r o g r a m m i n g . d. V e r i f i c a t i o n e. V a l i d a t i o n : t h e A c t u a l d a t a r e s i d e w i t h i n t h e i n t e r v a l o f 95 % c o n f i d e n c e l e v e l o f model gene r a t e d d a t a . f . E x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n f o r d e t e r m i n i n g s i m u l a t i o n time.The r e g e n e r a t i v e method was p r o v e n n o t ap-p l i c a b l e . The r e ap-p e a t e d r u n s method was c o n s i d e r ed n o t p r a c t i c a l . U s i n g t h e one r u n f o r s e v e r a l subruns method gave s t a t i s t i c a l l y a c c e p t a b l e s i ^ m u l a t i o n t i m e o f 3)^ y e a r s , c o n s i s t i n g o f i n i t i -a l i z -a t i o n ph-ase To o f 3 months -and g -a t h e r i n g d-a t a phase Të o f 3 1/4 y e a r s ( 13 subruns o f 3 m o n t h s ) . Howevnr, by c o n s i d e r i n g t h e IBM PC-AT computing t i m e n o t t o exceed 2 h o u r s f o r p r a c t i ^ c a l r e a s o n , Te o f 2 , 1 and Vz y e a r s were t a k e n f o r 1986 & 1990, 1995, and 2005 e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n r u n s r e s p e c t i v e l y . g. E x p e r i m e n t a t i o n r u n s were a r r a n g e d based on t h e s t r a t e g y o f t h e development p l a n . h. D o c u m e n t a t i o n and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f o u t p u t s . . The 1986 e x i s t i n g and f u t u r e r e q u i r e m e n t o f b e r t h -i n g and s t o r a g e f a c -i l -i t -i t e s , f o r I n t e r n a t -i o n a l Sub t e r m i n a l ( I S ) and Domestic S u b t e r m i n a l (DS) : 1986 1990 1995 i 2005 I S DS IS DS • IS DS I S DS a. Quay (m) 360 375 360 375 360 400 510 400 b. Shed (000 m2) - NCC 8.8 2.4 2.7 2.6 3.1 4.3 4.2 CFS _ _ _ 6.0 -c. Yard (000 m2) - NCC 8.2 4.8 2.2 7.0 2.5 13,0 4.0 CY 10.0 10.7 18.0 21.0 -1988 : 18.0
The a d d i t i o n a l o f quay l e n g t h was n o t because o f b e r t h i n g c a p a c i t y r e a s o n s , b u t f o r b e t t e r c a r g o h a n d l i n g o p e r a t i o n . W i t h r e g a r d t o development p l a n , t h e f o l l o w i n g c o n c l u -s i o n -s and recommendation-s were made :
a. I t i s s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e f u l l - s c a l e o f t h e mul t i - s h i f t w o r k i n g system be i m p l e m e n t e d as soon p o s s i b l e . However, i f t h a t s u g g e s t i o n cannot' be c a r r i e d o u t i m m e d i a t e l y , t h e g r a d u a l improvement i s recommended. I n t h i s case, t h e t w o - s h i f t " w b r k i n g system w i l l have t o be a c h i e v e d by 2005 b. As f a r as t h e above o p e r a t i o n improvement a r e t a k e n a t p r o p e r t i m e , t h e extentiön o f quay, e i t h e r i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r d o m e s t i c , w i l l n o t be r e q u i r e d u n t i l 2005. F u r t h e r m o r e , s i m u l a t e d 2005 s i t u a t i o n i n d i c a -t e d -t h a -t f o r developmen-t a f -t e r 2005, -t h e ' domes-tic quay w i l l l i k e l y have t o be e x t e n d e d f i r s t b e f o r e any a t t e m p t t o b u i l d a new i n t e r n a t i o n a l quay.
c. There w i l l be no e x p a n s i o n o f d o m e s t i c n o n c o n t a i n e r c a r g o (NCC) s t o r a g e f a c i l i t i e s . Eor ' s t o r a g e f a -c i l i t i e s , o f e i t h e r i n t e r n a t i o n a l NCC o r -c o n t a i n e r , some m o d i f i c a t i o n s a r e needed by 1995 and major ex-p a n s i o n has t o be e x e c u t e d by 2005.
c. A l a r g e s c a l e r e p l a c e m e n t o f c a r g o h a n d l i n g e q u i p -ments s h o u l d be c a r r i e d o u t p a r t l y by 1995 and part^ l y b y 2005. . W i t h r e g a r d t o t h e u t i l i s a t i o n o f computer s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l l i n g , i t t u r n e d o u t t h a t t h i s t e c h n i q u e o f f e r s v a r i o u s o u t p u t s w h i c h cannot be o b t a i n e d by a p p l y i n g o-t h e r o-t e c h n i q u e , such as : d e o-t a i l e d c o m p o s i o-t i o n o f o-t i m e s p e n t by s h i p i n p o r t , r e s u l t s o f v a r y i n g p l a n n i n g i n -t e r v e n -t i o n s ( quay l e n g -t h , number o f quay c r a n e , o p e r a t i o n a l f a c t o r s ) , and i n f d r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g d a i l y a-mount o f c a r g o i n s t o r a g e f a c i l i t i e s . However, t h i s e f
f e c t i v e t e c h n i q u e s h o u l d be c a r e f u l l y a p p l i e d , e s p e c i a l l y i f i t i s a s s i s t e d by p r e s e n t d a y . p e ^ s o n a l compu -t e r . There i s s -t i l l a s -t r i c -t -t r a d e - o f f be-tween a g r e a -t d e t a i l e d o u t p u t s on "the one hand and c o m p u t i n g t i m e c o n s i d e r a t i o n and c a p a c i t y l i m i t a t i o n o f t h e p e r s o n a l
Summary I I n t r o d u c t i o n 1 1.1 G e n e r a l D e s c r i p t i o n 1 1.2 O b j e c t i v e o f t h e Study 4 1.3 C o n t e n t s o f t h e R e p o r t 6 1.4 T e r m i n o l o g y 7 I I T r a f f i c F o r e c a s t i n g 10 2.1 G e n e r a l 10 2.2 I n t e r n a t i o n a l Trade 10 2.2.1 E x p o r t 10 2.2.2 I m p o r t 12 2.3 Domestic Trade 14 2.3.1 Domestic Outward 14 2.3.2 Domestic I n w a r d 15 2.4 S h i p A r r i v a l F o r e c a s t i n g 16 2.5 C o n t a i n e r T r a f f i c 16 I I I T e r m i n a l F a c i l i t i e s Requirement C a l c u l a t i o n 29 3.1 G e n e r a l 29 3.2 M o d e l l i n g Process 31 3.3 MPTSIM Model 34 3.3.1 Boundary 3 4 3.3.2 C o n f i q u a t i o n 3 5 3.3.3 S t r u c t u r e 3 9 3.3.4 Process D e s c r i p t i o n 39 3.3.5 I n p u t s 47 3.3.6 S i m u l a t i o n Time 49 3.3.7 V a l i d a t i o n 59 3.3.8 E x p e r i m e n t a t i o n 59 3.4 F u t u r e T e r m i n a l F a c i l i t i e s y 4 3.4.1 Quay L e n g t h 74 3.4.2 M o b i l e Quay Crane 75 3.4.3 P o r t S t o r a g e 75 3.4.4 T e r m i n a l Equipment 79 3.4.5 Summary 34 IV T e r m i n a l L a y o u t P r e p a r a t i o n 86 4.1 G e n e r a l 86 4.2 M a s t e r p l a n L a y o u t A l t e r n a t i v e 87 4.3 I n t e r n a t i o n a l NCC area 88 4.4 C o n t a i n e r o p e r a t i o n area 90 4.5 S e r v i c e C r a f t Area 90 4.6 M a s t e r p l a n L a y o u t 91 4 . 7 Cost E s t i m a t e 91
References 100 Annexes A: Economy, T r a d e , S h i p p i n g and P o r t 102
B: Data (Cargo & S h i p ) A n a l y s i s 112 C: F u t u r e S h i p and H a n d l i n g A n a l y s i s 144
1.1 G e n e r a l D e s c r i p t i o n 1.2 O b j e c t i v e s o f t h e s t u d y 1.3 C o n t e n t o f t h e r e p o r t 1.3 T e r m i n o l o g y
I . l General D e s c r i p t i o n
Palembang w h i c h i s t h e c a p i t a l c i t y o f t h e p r o v i n c e o f South Sumatra, has been a c o m m e r c i a l c e n t r e o f t h i s r e g i o n s i n c e t h e Sumatran m a r i t i m e kingdom o f S r i v i j a y a r o s e i n t h e 7 t h c e n t u r y AD and c o n t r o l l e d much o f t h e t r a d e o f South E a s t A s i a by r u l i n g t h e s t r a i t o f Malaka between Sumatra and Malay p e n i n s u l a . F i g u r e 1.1 shows t h e Palembang p o s i t i o n i n t h i s r e g i o n .
The p o r t o f Palembang i s s i t u a t e d a p p r o x i m a t e l y 100 kms up t h e Musi r i v e r f r o m t h e deep sea (see f i g u r e 1 . 2 ) . A number o f s h o a l s i n t h e r i v e r and a b a r ( s h a l l o w p a r t ) a t t h e e n t r a n c e r e s t r i c t t h e n a v i g a t i b i l i t y o f t h i s r i v e r . Being a t i d a l r i v e r , i t i s a l s o dependent on t h e i n c o m i n g and o u t g o i n g t i d e , where t h e t i d a l d i f f e r e n c e s a t t h e b a r and a t Palembang a r e a b o u t 3.10 m and 2.40 m r e s p e c t i v e l y . N e v e r t h e l e s t h e r e i s f a i r l y e x t e n s i v e development a l o n g b o t h r i v e r banks near t o t h e Palembang c i t y , where v a r i o u s w a t e r f r o n t i n d u s t r i a l a r e a s a r e p r o v i d e d w i t h
l o a d i n g / d i s c h a r g i n g f a c i l i t i e s .
L o a d i n g / d i s c h a r g i n g o f c a r g o a t t h e p o r t o f Palembang i s p a r t l y c a r r i e d o u t v i a t h e p u b l i c t e r m i n a l , p a r t l y v i a t h e p r i v a t e t e r m i n a l s , and p a r t l y i n m i d s t r e a m r i v e r (see f i g u r e 1.3). The p u b l i c t e r m i n a l , w h i c h i s owned and o p e r a t e d by s t a t e company P u b l i c P o r t C o r p o r a t i o n I I (Perumpel I I ) , b r a n c h Palembang, c o n s i s t o f : t h e m a i n p u b l i c t e r m i n a l (MPT) a t Boom B a r u , s a i l i n g v e s s e l t e r m i n a l (SVT) a t Sungai L a i s , and raid-river d o l p h i n s ( m o o r i n g f a c i l i t i e s ) a t t h e f r o n t o f t h e MPT'. Whereas t h e p r i v a t e l y owned t e r m i n a l s i n c l u d e : o i l
j e t t i e s a t P l a j u and Sungai Gerong o p e r a t e d by P e r t a m i n a , a f e r l i z e r j e t t y i n use by PT P u s r i l o c a t e d o p p o s i t e P l a j u , a c o a l V7harf a t K e r t a p a t i o p e r a t e d by PT Taba, a s a l t j e t t y a t Palembang used by PN Garam, and o t h e r wharves a l o n g b o t h r i v e r banks where l o a d i n g / d i s c h a r g i n g o f c a r g o i s h a n d l e d by p r i v a t e companies. Meanwhile, t h e m i d s t r e a m o p e r a t i o n t a k e s p l a c e i n t h e anchorage area i n t h e r i v e r .
Only t h e Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l a t Boom Baru w i l l be s t u d i e d i n t h i s r e p o r t . As shown i n t h e f i g u r e 1.4, t h i s t e r m i n a l can p h y s i c a l l y be d i v i d e d i n t o two c o n t i n u o u s wharves: ( I ) W e s t e r n / u p s t r e a m p a r t : L e n g t h : 375 m, r e i n f o r c e d c o n c r e t e Shed: A + B ( 624 + 1.171 m2), D + E (1511 + 1.131 m2) H (1.375 m2)
Yard: a t t h e f r o n t and b e h i n d sheds
Trade: i n t e r i n s u l a r s h i p t r a f f i c , i n t e r n a t i o n a l and d o m e s t i c cargo i n t h e s t o r a g e f a c i l i t i e s .
- t h e e x i s t i n g y a r d o f 15.000 m2 b e i n g
repaved and expanded t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y 27.000 m2, c o m p l e t e d by 1999 Trade: i n t e r n a t i o n a l s h i p t r a f f i c (mixed i n t e r i n s u l a r and i n t e r n a t i o n a l s h i p t r a f f i c on 100 m l o n g quay near t o t h e w e s t e r n / u p s t r e a m p a r t ) , i n t e r n a t i o n a l c a r g o i n t h e s t o r a g e a r e a . The n a t u r a l w a t e r - d e p t h a t t h e f r o n t o f t h a t wharves, i s about 7.00 m below LWS [ 7 ] . For t h e p r e s e n t o p e r a t i o n , t h e r e f o r e , p r a c t i c a l l y no m a i n t a i n a n c e d r e d g i n g i s r e q u i r e d a t t h e quay s i d e .
The s u c c e s s i v e and s t e p - b y - s t e p development p r o j e c t s have been e x e c u t e d i n t h e p a s t i n o r d e r t o cope w i t h t h e a n t i c i p a t e d t r a d e g r o w t h . The l a s t s t u d y , w h i c h i n c l u d e d a m a s t e r p l a n , f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d y , s i t e i n v e s t i g a t i o n and e n g i n e e r i n g d e s i g n , was c a r r i e d by H a s k o n i n g , Royal Dutch C o n s u l t i n g E n g i n e e r s i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h PT D e l t a Tama Waja i n 1983/1984. T h i s s t u d y m a i n l y based on t h e Four Gateways P o r t System p o l i c y (see Annex A l ) , w h i c h channels a l l i n t e r n a t i o n a l c a r g o t h r o u g h t h e Gateway p o r t ( i n t h i s case: T a n j u n g p r i o k ) and t r a n s h i p p i n g t o / f r o m c o l l e c t o r p o r t s ( i n t h i s case: Palembang), w h i c h would l e a d t o a p r o g r e s s i o n o f u n i t i z a t i o n o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l g e n e r a l c a r g o . T h i s p o l i c y i s expected t o be i m p l e m e n t e d by 1990, when t h e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e r e q u i r e m e n t b o t h i n T a n j u n g p r i o k and Palembang t o cope w i t h the f o r e c a s t t h r o u g h o u t , w i l l have been c o m p l e t e d . The c o n s u l t a n t ' s r e c o m e n d a t i o n was t o d e v e l o p t h e s o - c a l l e d M u l t i p u r p o s e T e r m i n a l a t t h e e x i s t i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l quay,
i n c o r p o r a t e s a C o n t a i n e r F r e i g h t S t a t i o n (CFS) shed, Non C o n t a i n e r (NCC) Shed, p a v i n g area o f 30.000 m2 f o r b o t h c o n t a i n e r and non c o n t a i n e r c a r g o , t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f new s e r v i c e b o a t j e t t y , and p u r c h a s i n g o f new a d d i t i o n a l c a r g o h a n d l i n g e q u i p m e n t s . T h i s p h y s i c a l f a c i l i t i e s development, t o g e t h e r w i t h t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e and t r a i n i n g , f o r t h e p o r t of T a n j u n g p r i o k , P a n j a n g , Palembang, T e l u k b a y u r and P o n t i a n a k
( w i t h i n t h e r e g i o n o f Perumpel I I , see Annex A4) i s known as the N a t i o n a l P o r t s Development P r o j e c t (NPDP) c o f i n a n c e d by World Bank.
However, t h e r e were t h r e e i m p o r t a n t e v e n t s i n 1985 w h i c h c o u l d c o n s i d e r a b l y d e v i a t e t h e c o n s u l t a n t ' s t r a f f i c f o r e c a s t . F i r s t , t h e P e r t a m i n a has been o p e r a t i n g a new s p e c i a l j e t t y f o r i t s a r o m a t i c p r o d u c t s i n c e 1985. Whereas t h i s p r o d u c t was expected t o be h a n d l e d a t t h e Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l i n t h e c o n s u l t a n t a n a l y s i s . The second major e v e n t was t h e o i l p r i c e c o l l a p s e , from- 25 US $ t o l e s s t h a n 10 US $ per b a r r e l , w i t h i n j u s t a few months. Because t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f o i l and n a t u r a l gas was c l o s e t o 70% o f e x p o r t r e v e n u e , o b v i o u s l y .
t h i s e v e n t l i m i t e d c o n s i d e r a b l y t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f f o r e i g n exchange f o r i m p o r t . The t h i r d e v e n t w h i c h b r o u g h t g r e a t e r i m p a c t was t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h e new t r a d e p o l i c y w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , i n c l u d e d I n p r e s 4/85, implemented s i n c e A p r i l 1985 (see Annex A 2 ) . As a r e s u l t , t h e a c t u a l t r a f f i c f l o w i n 1985 showed a s i g n i f i c a n t d e v i a t i o n f r o m t h e c o n s u l t a n t ' s f o r e c a s t (see Annex B l ) . I n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h i s f a c t , t h e W o r l d Bank M i s s i o n v i s i t e d t h e p o r t o f Palembang i n A p r i l / M a y 1986. I n o r d e r t o accomodate t h e f i n d i n g s o f t h e W o r l d Bank M i s s i o n , and t o comply w i t h t h e p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n and c o n d i t i o n as a r e s u l t s and e f f e c t s o f t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e I n p r e s 4/85 and a l l r e l a t e d i m p l e m e n t a t i o n d e c r e e s , t h e P o r t Improvement A c t i o n P l a n was p r e p a r e d as a r e v i s i o n o f t h e P o r t O p e r a t i o n Improvement A c t i o n Program, p a r t o f t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e NPDP. For p o r t o f Palembang, t h i s A c t i o n Plan c o v e r e d [ 1 3 ] : ( I ) P h y s i c a l F a c i l i t i e s : - The scope o f p r o j e c t , e x c e p t p a v i n g t h e a r e a b e h i n d t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s u b t e r m i n a l o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y 27.000 m2, have been c a n c e l l e d (see f i g u r e 1.5)
- P r o c u r e m e n t o f 1 (one) 2400 HP t u g b o a t - R e h a b i l i t a t i o n o f n a v i g a t i o n a l a i d s a l o n g Musi r i v e r , and r e h a b i l i t a t i o n o f access r o a d t o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s u b t e r m i n a l . ( I I ) P o r t O p e r a t i o n Improvement: 1. W o r k i n g system ( p r o c e d u r e ) . The improvement o f c a r g o h a n d l i n g o p e r a t i o n p e r f o r m a n c e w h i c h i s e x p e c t e d t o be a c h i e v e d by t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f e f f e c t i v e o p e r a t i o n p l a n n i n g . T h i s i n c l u d e s : a) p r e a r r i v a l p l a n n i n g , t o w h i c h t h e b e r t h a l l o c a t i o n ( b e f o r e t h e v e s s e l ' s a r r i v a l ) i s p l a n n e d based on t h e n o t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e v e s s e l ' s a r r i v a l . b) work s c h e d u l l i n g , w h i c h i n v o l v e d t h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h e s h i f t - b y - s h i f t d e t a i l e d p l a n n i n g o f t h e c a r g o h a n d l i n g o p e r a t i o n . T h i s i s done when t h e v e s s e l i s a l o n g s i d e t h e b e r t h . The h i g h e s t p o s s i b l e s h i p o u t p u t and t h e minimum d e l a y a r e e x p e c t e d . c ) p e r f o r m a n c e r e v i e w , w h i c h m a i n l y c o n s i s t o f m o n i t o r i n g d u r i n g t h e c a r g o h a n d l i n g t a k e p l a c e , and e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e o p e r a t i o n a f t e r t h e s h i p has d e p a r t e d . T h i s s y s t e m a t i c and r o u t i n e p r o c e d u r e i n t h e w o r k i n g s y s t e m , i s e x p e c t e d t o b r i n g - t h e c a r g o h a n d l i n g o p e r a t i o n more e f f e c t i v e . 2. W o r k i n g Time. The i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h e new w o r k i n g t i m e i s e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e t h e p o r t c a p a c i t y . I n t h e f i r s t s t e p , i t i s t o s y n c h r o n i z e t h e d i f f e r e n t w o r k i n g t i m e o f t h e p a r t i e s i n v o l v e d i n p o r t a c t i v i t y . A f t e r w a r d , i f i t
i s n e c e s s a r y , t h e m u l t i s h i f t system as g u i d e d by I n p r e s 4/85 (see Annex A4) s h o u l d be i m p l e m e n t e d .
( I l l ) Management. T h i s i n c l u d e s :
a) t h e t r a i n i n g o f any l e v e l p e r s o n n e l i n v o l v e d i n t h e p o r t o p e r a t i o n , b o t h c o n t a i n e r and c o n v e n t i o n a l
t e r m i n a l ,
b) improvement o f t h e equipment m a i n t a n c e management, and
c) e s t a b l i s h m e n t new m o n i t o r i n g and r e p o r t i n g system f o r p r o p e r p o r t o p e r a t i o n d a t a / s t a t i s t i c .
However, t h i s A c t i o n P l a n i s e s s e n s i a l l y a s h o r t - t e r m development program, w h i c h i t s t i m e h o r i z o n reaches up t o 1990. Moreover, t h e d e c i s i o n as t o i m p l e m e n t t h i s program was n o t backed up w i t h a d e t a i l e d s t u d y . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e medium-t e r m (up medium-t o 1995) and medium-t h e l o n g - medium-t e r m (up medium-t o 2005) developmenmedium-t have t o be e s t a b l i s h e d as w e l l i n o r d e r t o cope w i t h t h e a n t i c i p a t e d change o f f u t u r e p o r t demand. 1.2 O b j e c t i v e s o f t h e s t u d y I n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e above m e n t i o n e d s i t u a t i o n , t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s s t u d y a r e f o r m u l a t e d as f o l l o w s : ( I ) t o r e v i e w and update t h e t r a f f i c f o r e c a s t i n g . ( I I ) t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h e 1990 s i t u a t i o n i n l i n e w i t h t h e A c t i o n P l a n i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . ( I I I ) t o p r e p a r e s o l u t i o n s f o r t h e 1995 and 2005 s i t u a t i o n s , and t o f o r m u l a t e them as medium and l o n g - t e r m development p l a n s .
I t i s o f i m p o r t a n c e , i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e p o i n t ( I I I ) above, t o s p e c i f y t h e s t u d y a r e a :
( I ) Problem d e f i n i t i o n .
The main p r o b l e m w h i c h w i l l be answered i n t h i s s t u d y i s t h a t c o n c e r n i n g t h e p o r t c a p a c i t y : b e r t h i n g , cargo h a n d l i n g and cargo s t o r a g e . The i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t h a n d l i n g c a p a c i t y q u e s t i o n i s beyond t h i s s t u d y . Less o r even no a t t e n t i o n w i l l be g i v e n t o o t h e r p r i n c i p a l problems such as: t e c h n o l o g i c a l changes i n s h i p p i n g and m a t e r i a l h a n d l i n g , i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n n e t w o r k s , and n a v i g a t i o n a l f e a t u r e s . The s e r v i c e l e v e l p r o b l e m , e x c e p t t h a t c o n c e r n i n g s h i p ' s w a i t i n g t i m e f o r b e r t h i n g , w i l l be d i s r e g a r d e d as w e l l . ( I I ) P o t e n t i a l s o l u t i o n s . There a r e s e v e r a l a l t e r n a t i v e s o f s o l u t i o n t o a c h i e v e the r e q u i r e d demand: a. I n s t i t u t i o n a l Improvement. T h i s improvement w h i c h i n c l u d i n g p o r t r e o r g a n i z a t i o n .
custom p r o c e d u r e and d o c u m e n t a t i o n , l a b o u r r e l a t i o n and r e g u l a t i o n and t r a i n i n g , has been t a k e n i n l i n e w i t h t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f I n p r e s 4/85 and A c t i o n P l a n .
b. O p e r a t i o n a l Improvement.
The improvement r e g a r d i n g w o r k i n g p r o c e d u r e , w o r k i n g t i m e and e q u i p m e n t m a i n t a i n a n c e has been a l s o c o v e r e d i n t h e I n p r e s 4/85 and A c t i o n P l a n . The r a d i c a l m e c h a n i z a t i o n o f c a r g o h a n d l i n g i s n o t a n t i c i p a t e d t o
t a k e p l a c e i n t h e f u t u r e .
c. M o d i f i c a t i o n o f E x i s t i n g F a c i l i t i e s .
The p o r t o p e r a t i o n may be i m p r o v e d t h r o u g h minor m o d i f i c a t i o n o f t h e f a c i l i t i e s and t h e g e n e r a l l a y o u t o f t h e p o r t . The m o d i f i c a t i o n i s sometimes r e q u i r e d so as t o accomodate t h e changes i n s h i p p i n g and c a r g o h a n d l i n g t e c h n o l o g y . d. E x p a n s i o n o f E x i s t i n g F a c i l i t i e s . T h i s a l t e r n a t i v e become n e c e s s a r y when t h e 3 ( t h r e e ) above a l t e r n a t i v e s c a n n o t s o l v e t h e p o r t ' s p r o b l e m , such as c o n g e s t i o n ( o r an i n a d e q u a t e l e v e l o f s e r v i c e ) . E x t e n d i n g e x i s t i n g quays w i l l i n c r e a s e s h i p and c a r g o - h a n d l i n g c a p a c i t y . E x p a n s i o n o f s t o r a g e f a c i l i t i e s w i l l i n c r e a s e t h e s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y . e. Development o f New P o r t .
Development o f e n t i r e l y new f a c i l i t i e s becomes a t t r a c t i v e i f o n l y :
(a) t h e e x i s t i n g p o r t i s l i m i t e d t o accomodate any e x p a n s i o n , o r
(b) t h e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d f o r development o f new f a c i l i t i e s i s comparable t o t h a t f o r e x p a n s i o n o f e x i s t i n g p o r t f a c i l i t i e s .
The a p p r o p r i a t e and p r o p e r s o l u t i o n s t o improve a p o r t c a p a c i t y can be met a f t e r i n d e n t i f y i n g t h e p o r t development o b j e c t i v e s and c r i t e r i a ( o r c r i t e r i o n ) . ( I l l ) P o r t Development O b j e c t i v e s and C r i t e r i a . The o b j e c t i v e o f t h e p o r t development i s t o m i n i m i z e t h e t o t a l p o r t o p e r a t i o n c o s t c o n t r i b u t e d by t h e s h i p s c o s t i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e i r t i m e s p e n t i n p o r t , t h e c a r g o h a n d l i n g o p e r a t i o n c o s t and t h e p o r t f a c i l i t i e s i n v e s t m e n t . Other p o s s i b l e o b j e c t i v e s such as m a x i m i z i n g t h e n e t p r o f i t / t o t a l revenues / r e t u r n on i n v e s t m e n t , and m a x i m i z i n g t h e economic i m p a c t on t h e h i n t e r l a n d a r e e x c l u s i v e l y beyond t h i s s t u d y . I n a c h i e v i n g t h e above o b j e c t i v e , t h e r e l e v a n t c r i t e r i o n t o be used i s t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n o f number o f b e r t h ( o r t h e l e n g t h o f q u a y ) , t h e s i z e o f s t o r a g e f a c i l i t i e s and o t h e r m a j o r f i x e d i n v e s t m e n t s . Other p o s s i b l e c r i t e r i a such as m i n i m i z i n g t h e t o t a l c o s t o f t h e whole t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c h a i n s o f cargo ( i n c l u d i n g i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ) o r p r o m o t i n g economic g r o w t h r a t e a r e c o n s i d e r e d l e s s r e l e v a n t t o t h i s s t u d y .
( I V ) P o r t Development S t r a t e g y .
H a v i n g known t h e n e c e s s i t y o f t h e development p l a n f o r t h e f u t u r e s i t u a t i o n , t h e p o r t d e v e l o p m e n t s t a t e g y b a s i c a l l y c o n s i s t s o f d e c i d i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g i s s u e s
[ 3 ] :
a. How t h a t development p l a n s h o u l d be met - f o r example, by improvement o f e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s , o p e r a t i o n s , o r f a c i l i t i e s , o r c o n s t r u c t i o n o f new f a c i l i t i e s ?
b. Where i t s h o u l d be met - f o r example, i n what p a r t o f t h e p o r t ? c. When i t s h o u l d be met. 1 . 3 C o n t e n t o f t h e r e p o r t T h i s r e p o r t i n t e n d s t o c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f p o r t computer s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e i n p o r t p l a n n i n g . The o u t l i n e o f t h e c o n t e n t s o f t h i s r e p o r t i s g i v e n below:
Chapter 2 p r e s e n t s t h e t r a f f i c f o r e c a s t i n g f o r each commodity c l a s s , i n t e r n a t i o n a l as w e l l as d o m e s t i c c a r g o . F i r s t , t h e t o t a l tonnage t h r o u g h t h e p o r t was f o r e c a s t e d c o n s i d e r i n g t h e e x p e c t e d g r o w t h r a t e and t h e a n t i c i p a t e d h i n t e r l a n d s change, i f any. Second, t h e f u t u r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o v e r Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l was e s t i m a t e d . T h i r d , t h e f u t u r e a l l o c a t i o n t o s h i p and p a c k a g i n g f o r m were a l s o p r e d i c t e d . And t h e f o u r t h , t h e f u t u r e s h i p c a l l o f each s h i p t y p e was c a l c u l a t e d . And f i n a l l y , t h e f u t u r e c o n t a i n e r s t r a f f i c ( i n TEU) and t h e l e v e l o f c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n were e s t i m a t e d .
Chapter 3 c o v e r s t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h e MPTSIM model f o r p o r t f a c i l i t i e s r e q u i r e m e n t c a l c u l a t i o n s . F i r s t , t h e i n e v i t a b i t y o f t h e s i m u l a t i o n model t e c h n i q u e , so as t o have r e l i a b l e r e s u l t f o r t h e Main T e r m i n a l , was o u t l i n e d . Second, t h e m o d e l l i n g p r o c e s s i n t h e model development was d e s c r i b e d . T h i r d , t h e s t r u c t u r e and p r o c e s s d e s c r i p t i o n s o f t h e MPTSIM model were g i v e n . F o u r t h , t h e s i m u l a t i o n t i m e was d e t e r m i n e d . F i f t h , t h e v a l i d a t i o n o u t p u t was a n a l y s e d . And f i n a l l y , t h e o u t p u t s f r o m t h e e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n o f MPTSIM model were a n a l y s e d so as t o answer t h e q u e s t i o n r e g a r d i n g t h e p o r t f a c i l i t i e s r e q u i r e m e n t s . Chapter 4 d i s c u s s e s t h e t e r m i n a l l a y o u t p r e p a r a t i o n . F i r s t t h e o b j e c t i v e s t o be a c h i e v e d and t h e c r i t e r i o n t o be used i n t h e l a y o u t a n a l y s i s were e s t a b l i s h e d . Second, s e v e r a l l a y o u t a l t e r n a t i v e s were d e v e l o p e d by c o n s i d e r i n g on t h e e s t a b l i s h e d o b j e c t i v e s and t h e l i m i t a t i o n and c o n d i t i o n o f t h e p o r t a r e a . T h i r d , t h e most f a v o u r a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e was choosen based on t h e e s t a b l i s h e d c r i t e r i o n . And f o u r t h , t h e m a s t e r p l a n l a y o u t was p r e p a r e d w h i c h i n d i c a t e s a l s o t h e p o s s i b l e e x p a n s i o n beyond 2005. And f i n a l l y , t h e r o u g h c o s t e s t i m a t e o f c i v i l
work i n t h e p o r t development phase I ( f o r 1995, medium t e r m ) and i n t h e p o r t development Phase I I ( f o r 2005, l o n g t e r m ) was c a l c u l a t e d .
Chapter 5 c o n t a i n s t h e c o n c l u s i o n s and recommendations ( i f any) r e g a r d i n g t h e p o r t development p l a n as w e l l as r e g a r d i n g t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h e computer s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e .
Annex A o u t l i n e s t h e I n d o n e s i a n m a r i t i m e p o l i c y , t r a d e p o l i c y w i t h r e g a r d t o t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , n a t i o n a l and h i n t h e r l a n d (South Sumatra) economy g r o w t h r a t e , and p o r t a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . Annex B p r e s e n t s t h e c a r g o t h r o u g h p u t o f Palembang p o r t c a t e g o r i z e d f o r each c o m m o d i t y - c l a s s , and i n d i c a t i o n o f o r i g i n and d e s t i n a t i o n ; s h i p d a t a w i t h r e g a r d t o i t s a r r i v a l , l e n g t h , c a r g o ; and c a r g o h a n d l i n g o p e r a t i o n d a t a . Annex C p r e s e n t s t h e a n a l y s i s o f s h u t t l e s h i p s i z e d e t e r m i n a t i o n , t h e a n a l y s i s o f s h i p ' s c o s t i n p o r t and t h e a n a l y s i s o f f u t u r e c a r g o h a n d l i n g o p e r a t i o n .
Annex D c o n t a i n s t h e MPTSIM program w r i t t e n i n P e r s o n a l P r o s i m language, g i v e s t h e example o f i n p u t and o u t p u t , and c o n t a i n s t h e summary o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n - r u n o u t p u t s . 1.4 T e r m i n o l o g y I n o r d e r t o have b e t t e r comprehension t h e f o l l o w i n g terms w i l l be used i n t h i s r e p o r t s : ( I ) P u b l i c t e r m i n a l , a t e r m i n a l owned and o p e r a t e d by s t a t e d - o w n e d P u b l i c P o r t C o r p o r a t i o n , t o h a n d l e c a r g o of v a r i o u s s h i p p e r / c o n s i g n e e / p o r t u s e r s . The t e r m o f Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l r e f e r t o t h e main t e r m i n a l a t Boom B a r u , Palembang, used t o d i s t i n g u i s h i t f r o m S a i l i n g V e s s e l T e r m i n a l . ( I I ) S p e c i a l t e r m i n a l , a t e r m i n a l owned and o p e r a t e d by company o t h e r t h a n P u b l i c P o r t C o r p o r a t i o n , t o h a n d l e t h e i r own c a r g o . ( I I I ) Samudra: o c e a n - g o i n g l i n e r s e r v i c e s h i p N u s a n t a r a : r e g u l a r l i n e r s e r v i c e s h i p , whose p r i n c i p a l t a s k i s t o c o n n e c t a l l r e g i o n s o f I n d o n e s i a L o k a l : s m a l l s h i p s up t o 200 DWT, t r a d i n g up t o 500 m i l e s f r o m t h e i r base p o r t Khusus: i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r d o m e s t i c s h i p p i n g v e s s e l s c a r r y i n g s p e c i a l c a r g o .
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Timor ^pjj r.Hufsdov /. lÏÏJÜi Alice I A U S T A L I A f i g u r e 1.1 The l o c a t i o n o f Palembang c i t y i n South-East A s i a r e g i o n . f i g u r e 1.2 The l o c a t i o n óf Palembang c i t y i n Mu-s i r i v e r
2.1 G e n e r a l 2.2 I n t e r n a t i o n a l Trade 2.2.1 E x p o r t 2.2.2 I m p o r t 2.3 Domestic Trade 2.3.1 Domestic Outward 2.3.2 Domestic I n w a r d 2.4 Ship A r r i v a l F o r e c a s t i n g 2.5 C o n t a i n e r T r a f f i c
2.1 G e n e r a l
The o b j e c t i v e o f t h e t r a d e and t r a f f i c s t u d i e s was t o a r r i v e a t a f o r e c a s t o f t h e most l i k e l y f u t u r e t r a f f i c t h r o u g h Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l , p o r t o f Palembang. The t i m e h o r i z o n e x t e n t t o 2005, w i t h i n t e r i m f o r e c a s t f o r 1990 and 1995. The r e s u l t o f t h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l be used as an i n p u t o f t h e p o r t s i m u l a t i o n computer program i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l f a c i l i t i e s r e q u i r e m e n t . Whereas t h e scope o f t h e t r a f f i c f o r e c a s t i n g i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g s p e c i f i c t a s k s : - t o c l a s s i f y t h e p a s t c a r g o t r a f f i c , t o d e f i n e o r i g i n and d e s t i n a t i o n , and t o a n a l y s e t h e i r t r e n d s . - t o c o m p i l e t h e p o r t u s e r o p i n i o n on t r a f f i c and t e c h n o l o g i c a l t r e n d s . - t o e s t i m a t e s y s t e m a t i c t r a f f i c g r o w t h r a t e , based on t h e n a t i o n a l and h i n t e r l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t g r o w t h r a t e . - t o c o m p i l e t h e e x p e c t e d t r a f f i c - i n f l u e n c i n g e v e n t s , i n c o p o r a t e t h e i n d u s t r y p l a n s , a g r i c u l t u r a l p l a n s and t r a n s p o r t p o l i c i e s . - t o e s t a b l i s h a most l i k e l y f u t u r e g r o w t h and t e c h n o l o g i c a l s h i p p i n g s c e n a r i o s o f each t r a f f i c c l a s s . - t o t a b u l a t e a n n u a l f o r e c a s t o f each c a r g o c l a s s i n t o n n a g e s , f o r e c a s t o f s h i p and p a c k a g i n g f o r m ; f o r e c a s t o f s h i p c a l l , and f o r e c a s t o f c o n t a i n e r t r a f f i c . As m e n t i o n e d above, t h e f o r e c a s t i n g method a p p l i e d i n t h i s s t u d y was t h e s c e n a r i o a p p r o a c h , w h i c h i s a r i g o r o u s method o f d e f i n i n g p l a u s i b l e f u t u r e s i t u a t i o n s w i t h i n t h e l o n g - t e r m f u t u r e f o r e c a s t i n g . The s c e n a r i o can be d e f i n e d as an a r r a y o f a n t i c i p a t e d e v e n t s o r phenomena, u s u a l l y i n a system o f t e m p o r a l and c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s whose sequence can g e n e r a t e t r e n d on h o r i z o n s c e n a r i o s . As a c o l l e c t o r p o r t . Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l h a n d l e s n o t o n l y an i n t e r i s l a n d c a r g o ( d o m e s t i c t r a d e ) b u t a l s o an i n t e r n a t i o n a l c a r g o ( f o r e i g n t r a d e ) . T h e r e f o r e , t h e a n a l y s i s o f t r a f f i c f o r e c a s t i n g w i l l be p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s s u b d i v i s i o n , a l t h o u g h f o r p a r t i c u l a r c a r g o c l a s s , t h e b o t h t r a d e have i n f l u e n c e on each o t h e r hence t h e y c a n n o t be a n a l y z e d s e p a r a t e l y . 2.2 I n t e r n a t i o n a l Trade 2.2.1 E x p o r t The p r e s e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n o f Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l i s s t i l l v e r y l o w , i . e . l e s s t h a n 2 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l e x p o r t c a r g o t h r o u g h p o r t o f Palembang. The c o m m o d i t i e s and t h e i r
p e r c e n t a g e w h i c h h a n d l e d t h r o u g h MPT i n 1986 were 100 p e r c e n t o f a n i m a l f e e d , about 10 p e r c e n t o f c o f f e e and a b o u t 5 p e r c e n t o f r u b b e r [ 1 5 ] . Whereas t h e r e m a i n d e r , and a l s o t h e o t h e r c a r g o c l a s s e s , a r e h a n d l e d m i d s t r e a m o r a t s p e c i a l f a c i l i t i e s . About 80 p e r c e n t o f r u b b e r and c o f f e e was d e s t i n a t e d t o U.S.A., w h i c h was s h i p p e d by LASH s e r v i c e where p a l l e t i z e d and p r e s l u n g c a r g o i s s t i l l p r e f e r e d . Meanwhile t h e r e i s s l i g h t i n c r e a s e i n c o n t a i n e r t r a f f i c bound f o r Europe [ 1 4 ] . I n g e n e r a l , t h e e f f e c t s o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f Gateway p o l i c y and I n p r e s 4/85 a r e as f o l l o w s : ( I ) The e x p o r t cargo w i l l be c a r r i e d by S h u t t l e s h i p t o T a n j u n g p r i o k , e x c e p t : a) r u b b e r and c o f f e e bound f o r U.S.A. w h i c h w i l l be s h i p p e d by LASH s e r v i c e , and b ) e x p o r t c a r g o bound f o r S i n g a p u r e and M a l a y s i a w h i c h w i l l be s h i p p e d d i r e c t l y by Samudra s h i p and c ) e x p o r t c a r g o w h i c h w i l l s t i l l be l o a d e d t o s p e c i a l s h i p a t s p e c i a l f a c i l i t i e s . I n o t h e r words, t h e p r e s e n t s h i p p i n g o p e r a t i o n s , w h i c h are c o n s i d e r e d more e c o n o m i c a l t h a n i f t h e y a r e r e p l a c e d by t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f Gateway p o r t p o l i c y , are e x p e c t e d t o c o n t i n u e i n t h e f u t u r e . The LASH s e r v i c e o p e r a t e s barges c a l l i n g a t s e v e r a l p o r t s l o c a t e d a l o n g e a s t e r n c o a s t o f Sumatra ( i n c l u d i n g p o r t o f Palembang) t o t a k e r u b b e r and c o f f e e , c o n c e n t r a t e s t h e s e barges a t Riou i s l a n d s n e a r S i n g a p u r e , and l o a d s t h e s e barges ( w i t h t h e i r l o a d ) o n t o LASH s h i p d e s t i n e d t o USA. T h i s o p e r a t i o n i s b a s i c a l l y a c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f c a r g o s i m i l a r t o t h e Gateway p o l i c y . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f Gateway p o l i c y t o t h o s e c a r g o o f s h o r t d i s t a n c e ( S i n g a p u r e and M a l a y s i a ) means a p p r o x i m a t e l y d o u b l e t r a v e l i n g d i s t a n c e , t h u s t h e p r e s e n t s h i p p i n g o f Samudra i s p r e f e r a b l e . ( I I ) T h a t s i t u a t i o n w i l l l e a d t o t h e i n c r e a s i n g o f u t i l i z a t i o n o f Main T e r m i n a l as a l o a d i n g p o i n t . O b v i o u s l y , t h e r e w i l l be g r a d u a l s h i f t o f some e x p o r t c a r g o f r o m m i d s t r e a m o p e r a t i o n . Not o n l y c o f f e e and r u b b e r , b u t a l s o t h e o t h e r f o o d commodity, w h i c h i s a t p r e s e n t t o t a l l y h a n d l e d m i d s t r e a m . ( I I I ) F u r t h e r m o r e , i t i s a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t t h e u n i t i z a t i o n o f c a r g o w i l l i n c r e a s e , where t h e c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n i s l i k e l y t o c o n t i n u e t o expand i n t h e medium s c a l e . ( I V ) D i r e c t c a l l i n g between T a n j u n g p r i o k and c o u n t r i e s o f d e s t i n a t i o n w i l l g r a d u a l l y d i m i n i s h t h e p r e s e n t t a n s h i p m e n t o f some e x p o r t c a r g o a t S i n g a p u r e p o r t . W i t h r e g a r d t o h i n t e r l a n d change due t o a s t r o n g c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h t h e new deep-sea p o r t o f B e n g k u l u , t h i s seems o n l y t o a p p l y f o r r u b b e r and c o f f e e , where p a r t o f p l a n t a t i o n a r e a i s n e a r e r t o t h a t p o r t . These n e a r e r p l a n t a t i o n a r e a i n c l u d e Lubuk L i n g p a u a r e a and h a l f o f L a h a t a r e a , w h i c h c o n t r i b u t e d a p p r o x i m a t e l y 20% and 30% o f South
Sumatra p r o d u c t i o n o f r u b b e r and c o f f e e r e s p e c t i v e l y i n 1985 [ 1 5 ] . T h e r e f o r e i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t t h e r e w i l l be d i v e r s i o n of 5 p e r c e n t f o r r u b b e r and 10 p e r c e n t f o r c o f f e e i n 1990, and i n c r e a s e t o 10 p e r c e n t f o r r u b b e r and 20 p e r c e n t f o r c o f f e e i n 1995 onwards. Rubber i s t h e I n d o n e s i a ' s l a r g e s t a g r i c u l t u r a l e x p o r t commodity, w i t h about 90 p e r c e n t t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n b e i n g s o l d abroad. I n 1985, t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f South Sumatra was about
15 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l e x p o r t [ 2 ] . Based on c o n t i n u e d f a v o u r a b l e market c o n d i t i o n f o r n a t u r a l r u b b e r , i t i s assumed t h a t South Sumatra w i l l m a i n t a i n i t s s h a r e o f r u b b e r e x p o r t . C o n s i d e r i n g the d e c l i n i n g o f r u b b e r p r i c e i n w o r l d m a r k e t i n r e c e n t y e a r s , w h i c h w i l l n o t improve w i t h i n t h e near f u t u r e , t h e expected g r o w t h r a t e o f e x p o r t a t i o n o f t h i s commodity i s 2.5 p e r c e n t per y e a r up t o 1995 and 3.0 p e r c e n t per year a f t e r w a r d s .
I n d o n e s i a i s a l a r g e p r o d u c e r o f c o f f e e , a t w h i c h over 90 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n i s e x p o r t e d . I n 1985, t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f South Sumatra was a b o u t 20 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l
I n d o n e s i a n e x p o r t [ 2 ] . I t i s assumed t h a t South Sumatra w i l l be capable t o m a i n t a i n i t s share o f c o f f e e e x p o r t . A l t h o u g h t h e r e was r e m a r k a b l e r i s e o f c o f f e e p r i c e i n 1986, i t w i l l seemingly n o t p e r s i s t f o r a l o n g t i m e . I t i s a l s o assumed t h a t i n t h e near f u t u r e , t h e USA, t h e main i m p o r t e r o f I n d o n e s i a n c o f f e e , w i l l s t r e n g t h e n t h e p r o t e c t i o n i s m p o l i c y . T h e r e f o r e t h e a n t i c i p a t e d g r o w t h r a t e o f e x p o r t a t i o n o f t h i s commodity w i l l be 2.0 p e r c e n t per y e a r up t o 1995 and 2.2 5 p e r c e n t per y e a r a f t e r w a r d s . The e x p o r t a t i o n o f a n i m a l f e e d commodity v a r i e d i r r e g u l a r l y i n t h e p a s t y e a r s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e g r o w t h r a t e of 5 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r w i l l be employed i n t h e f o r e c a s t i n g [ 7 ] . The p r e s e n t h a n d l i n g u s i n g Main T e r m i n a l e x c l u s i v e l y i s expected t o c o n t i n u e . As m e n t i o n e d above, t h e o t h e r f o o d commodity i s a t p r e s e n t t o t a l l y h a n d l e d m i d s t r e a m , and g r a d u a l l y w i l l s h i f t t o Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l , about 50 p e r c e n t i n 1990 and 100 p e r c e n t i n 1995. The i m p r e s i v e i n c r e a s e o f e x p o r t a t i o n o f t h i s commodity was r e c o r d e d i n t h e p a s t y e a r s , and i t seems t o c o n t i n u e i n t h e f u t u r e w i t h t h e g r o w t h r a t e o f 4.5 p e r c e n t per y e a r . F i n a l l y , t h e d e t a i l e d f o r e c a s t i n g o f each e x p o r t commodity c l a s s i n t o t a l t o n n a g e t h r o u g h p o r t , i t s d i s t r i b u t i o n v i a Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l , i t s a l l o c a t i o n t o s h i p and p a c k a g i n g f o r m , i s p r e s e n t e d i n t a b l e 2.1. 2.2.2 I m p o r t The p r e s e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n o f Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l i s about 60 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l i m p o r t c a r g o , v/hich c o n s i s t o f almost a l l commodity c l a s s e s . Whereas t h e r e m a i n d e r i s m o s t l y
u n l o a d e d m i d s t r e a m [ 1 5 ] .
I n g e n e r a l , t h e s i m i l a r e f f e c t s o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f Gateway p o l i c y and I n p r e s 4/85 i n t h e e x p o r t a t i o n a r e a l s o a p p l y i n g f o r t h e i m p o r t a t i o n . E x c e p t , o f c o u r s e , t h e r e w i l l be no LASH s e r v i c e i n t h i s case. I t i s n e c e s s a r y t o emphasize t h a t t h e i m p o r t e d c o m m o d i t i e s f r o m S i n g a p o r e , w h i c h i s a t p r e s e n t a b o u t 40 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l i m p o r t , w i l l d e c r e a s e t o a b o u t (assumed) 25 p e r c e n t i n 1990 onwards.
The h i n t e r l a n d change i s a l s o a n t i c i p a t e d , m a i n l y due t o t h e s t r o n g c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h t h e new deep-sea p o r t o f B e n g k u l u , and t h e e f f e c t o f r o a d improvement w h i c h w i l l b e n e f i t t h e f e r r y p o r t o f Bakahuni [ 7 ] . T h e r e f o r e t h e r e w i l l be d i v e r s i o n t o t h o s e p o r t s , a m o u n t i n g t o 7.5 p e r c e n t f r o m
1990 onwards f o r h i g h v a l u e c a r g o , i . e . c a p i t a l goods, consumer goods, n o n - f e r r o and o t h e r f o o d c o m m o d i t i e s , and amounting t o o n l y 5.0 p e r c e n t f o r o t h e r c o m m o d i t i e s .
The e f f o r t o f t h e I n d o n e s i a n government t o a c h i e v e and m a i n t a i n a s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y o f f o o d , and t h e e f f e c t o f good
i n t e r i s l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e , w i l l e v e n t u a l l y s t o p t h e i m p o r t a t i o n o f r i c e . Meanwhile, t h e B a t u r a j a cement p l a n t p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t y o f 500.000 t o n s p e r y e a r and t h e i n a u g u r a t i o n o f t w o new sugar f a c t o r i e s i n C i n t a Manis w i t h combined p r o d u c t i o n o f 80,000 t o n s p e r y e a r , n o t o n l y w i l l s t o p t h e u n l o a d i n g o f t h e s e two c o m m o d i t i e s , b u t a l s o w i l l g e n e r a t e some o u t g o i n g o f t h e s e c o m m o d i t i e s t o t h e l o c a l d e s t i n a t i o n [ 7 ] : On t h e o t h e r hand, t h e e f f o r t t o s t i m u l a t e a h i g h g r o w t h of t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r , w i l l i n c r e a s e t h e i m p o r t a t i o n o f c a p i t a l goods and raw m a t e r i a l . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e i m p o r t a t i o n of c o n s u m p t i o n goods w i l l be r e s t r i c t e d o n l y t o p r o d u c t s n o t produced d o m e s t i c a l l y . The i m p o r t a t i o n o f f e r t i l i z e r i n t h e f u t u r e i s e x p e c t e d t o cease. A l t h o u g h t h e use o f f e r t i l i z e r w i l l i n c r e a s e r a p i d l y i n l i n e w i t h t h e e x t e n s i v e and even t h e i n t e n s i v e f a r m i n g methods, t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f f e r t i l i z e r p l a n t s i n t h e l a s t decade has made I n d o n e s i a a n e t e x p o r t e r o f e s p e c i a l l y u r e a f e r t i l i z e r , a f t e r h a v i n g been an i m p o r t e r f o r many decades b e f o r e [ 2 ] , I n t h e f u t u r e , t h e u r e a f e r t i l i z e r
f o r South Sumatra w i l l be s u f f i c e d by PT P u s r i ' s p r o d u c t i o n , whereas t h e o t h e r f e r t i l i z e r s , such as TSP and DAP, w i l l have t o be o r d e r e d f r o m G r e s i k , East Java [ 7 ] , T h e r e f o r e , t h e i n c o m i n g f e r t i l i z e r i s e x p e c t e d f r o m i n t e r i s l a n d t r a d e . T h i s a n t i c i p a t i o n agrees w e l l w i t h t h e p a s t d a t a , where t h e f e r t i l i z e r i m p o r t showed decrease f r o m 19.000 MT i n 1982 t o o n l y 1000 MT i n 1986, and d o m e s t i c i n c o m i n g showed o t h e r w i s e , i n c r e a s i n g f r o m 17.500 MT i n 1982 t o 49,000 MT i n 1986. A p p a r e n t l y , t h e f e r t i l i z e r i m p o r t was g r a d u a l l y r e p l a c e d by t h e d o m e s t i c i n c o m i n g t r a d e .
I n a d d i t i o n , t h e commodity g r o u p o f sand and s t o n e , w h i c h i n t h e f u t u r e w i l l c o n s i s t f o r a l a r g e p a r t o f gypsum, p r o b a b l y w i l l a r r i v e d i r e c t l y f r o m i t s c o u n t r y o f o r i g i n i n s p e c i a l v e s s e l . T h e r e f o r e i n t h e f o r e c a s t i n g , i t i s a l l o c a t e d
t o m i d s t r e a m / s p e c i a l f a c i l i t i e s [ 7 ] .
On t h e o t h e r hand, t h e i r o n and s t e e l commodity c l a s s , w i l l change o t h e r w i s e [ 7 ] . The improvement o f c a r g o h a n d l i n g c a p a b i l i t y a t Main T e r m i n a l w i l l g r a d u a l l y a t t r a c t t h i s commodity, w h i c h i s a t p r e s e n t t o t a l l y h a n d l e d m i d s t r e a m , amounting t o 50 p e r c e n t i n 1990 and 100 p e r c e n t i n 1995 onwards. F i n a l l y , i n t h e f u t u r e t h e r e w i l l be 9 ( n i n e ) c o m m o d i t i e s w h i c h w i l l be i m p o r t e d t h r o u g h Main T e r m i n a l w i t h t h e i r e x p e c t e d g r o w t h r a t e per year i n b r a c k e t [ 7 ] , i . e . : a n i m a l f e e d (6 p e r c e n t ) , consumer goods (8 p e r c e n t ) , non-f e r r o (4 p e r c e n t ) , c a p i t a l goods (8 p e r c e n t ) i r o n and s t e e l ( 4 p e r c e n t ) , o t h e r f o o d s (5 p e r c e n t ) , c h e m i c a l s (5 p e r c e n t ) , a s p h a l t (8 p e r c e n t ) , and r u b b e r p r o d u c t (8 p e r c e n t ) . F i n a l l y , t h e d e t a i l e d f o r e c a s t i n g o f each i m p o r t commodity c l a s s i n t o t a l tonnage t h r o u g h p o r t , i t s d i s t r i b u t i o n v i a Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l , i t s a l l o c a t i o n t o s h i p and p a c k a g i n g f o r m , i s p r e s e n t e d i n t a b l e 2.2. 2.3 Domestic Trade 2.3.1 Domestic Outward The p r e s e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n o f Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l i s v e r y low, i . e . about 1.5 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l d o m e s t i c c a r g o l o a d e d t h r o u g h p o r t o f Palembang [ 1 5 ] . Whereas t h e r e m a i n d e r a r e h a n d l e d m i d s t r e a m o r a t o t h e r f a c i l i t i e s . The p r e s e n t h i n t e r l a n d and t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c a r g o l o a d i n g over f a c i l i t i e s w i l l s e e m i n g l y n o t change i n t h e f u t u r e [ 7 ] . T h e r e f o r e i t i s a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t t h e r e w i l l be no d i v e r s i o n t o n e i g h b o u r p o r t s o r t o o t h e r l o a d i n g f a c i l i t i e s . Because t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a d d i t i o n a l f e r t i l i z e r p r o d u c t i o n u n i t o f PT P u s r i i s l i k e l y n o t f e a s i b l e [ 7 ] , t h e f o r e c a s t i n g i s t h e r e f o r e m e r e l y based on i t s c a p a c i t y o f 1.600.000 t o n s per y e a r . Some o f bagged f e r t i l i z e r i s t h e n loaded a t Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l t o be s h i p p e d t o t h e l o c a l d e s t i n a t i o n . As m e n t i o n e d e a r l i e r , t h e B a t u r a j a cement p l a n t p r o d u c t i o n and t h e C i n t a Manis sugar f a c t o r i e s p r o d u c t i o n w i l l g e n e r a t e some o u t g o i n g o f cement and sugar c o m m o d i t i e s t o t h e l o c a l d e s t i n a t i o n . Based on i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m i n d u s t r i a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s and p o r t u s e r s [ 7 ] , t h e g r o w t h r a t e o f 10 ( t e n ) c o m m o d i t i e s w h i c h w i l l p a r t l y o r t o t a l l y l o a d e d t h r o u g h Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l a r e i n d i c a t e d w i t h i n f o l l o w i n g b r a c k e t s : f e r t i l i z e r ( z e r o ) , cement (8 p e r c e n t ) , sugar (11 p e r c e n t ) n o n - f e r r o (4 p e r c e n t ) , c a p i t a l goods (8 p e r c e n t ) , o t h e r foods (8 p e r c e n t ) , c h e m i c a l (5 p e r c e n t ) , t i m b e r (-1.0 p e r c e n t ) , s a n d / s t o n e (3 p e r c e n t ) , and o i l f a t s
(5 p e r c e n t ) . The tonnage o f t i m b e r w i l l d e c r e a s e m a i n l y due t o t h e c o n v e r s i o n f r o m raw m a t e r i a l t o more f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s . But t h a t c o n v e r s i o n w i l l a l s o b e n e f i t t h e Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l , t h a t i s , w i l l i n c e a s e i t s c o n t r i b u t i o n .
W i t h r e g a r d t o s h i p s , t h e r e a r e 2 ( t w o ) t y p e s o f v e s s e l s which c a r r y d o m e s t i c o u t w a r d c a r g o f r o m Main T e r m i n a l : Nusantara and L o k a l . The assessment o f t h e 1982 a l l o c a t i o n cargo t o N u s a n t a r a and L o k a l a r e 60% and 40% r e s p e c t i v e l y [ 7 ] . I t seems t h a t t h i s p e r c e n t a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n i s u n l i k e l y t o c o n t i n u e i n t h e f u t u r e .
F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e p a c k a g i n g f o r m o f cargo i s d i s t i n g u i s h e d based on c a r g o h a n d l i n g speeds p e r ganghour i n t o 3 ( t h r e e ) g r o u p s : ( I ) bagged (19 t o n s / g a n g h o u r ) , ( I I ) l o o s e / b r e a k b u l k / p a l l e t (15 t o n s / g a n g h o u r ) and ( I I I ) drums, t i m b e r , b u l k (10 t o n s / g a n g h o u r ) [ 7 ] . F i n a l l y , t h e d e t a i l e d f o r e c a s t i n g o f each d o m e s t i c o u t w a r d commodity c l a s s i n t o t a l tonnage t h r o u g h p o r t , i t s d i s t r i b u t i o n v i a Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l , i t s a l l o c a t i o n t o s h i p and p a c k a g i n g f o r m , i s p r e s e n t e d i n t a b l e 2.3. 2.3.2 Domestic I n w a r d The p r e s e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n o f Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l i s about 30 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l d o m e s t i c i n w a r d c a r g o t h r o u g h p o r t of Palembang, w h i c h c o n s i s t s o f a l m o s t a l l commodity c l a s s e s . Whereas t h e r e m a i n d e r i s h a n d l e d m i d s t r e a m o r a t o t h e r f a c i l i t i e s [ 1 5 ] .
The h i n t e r l a n d change i s a n t i c i p a t e d , because o f t h e c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h t h e new deep-sea p o r t o f B e n g k u l u , and t h e e f f e c t o f improvement o f t h e r o a d n e t w o r k and t h e f e r r y s e r v i c e [ 7 ] . The r e d u c t i o n owing t o t h e f i r s t cause w h i c h i s 25 p e r c e n t i n 1990 and 5 p e r c e n t i n 1995 onwards, a p p l y f o r a l l c o m m o d i t i e s . The same r e d u c t i o n i s b r o u g h t about by t h e second cause, b u t o n l y added t o h i g h v a l u e c o m m o d i t i e s : consumer goods, n o n - f e r r o , c a p i t a l goods and o t h e r f o o d s .
As m e n t i o n e d e a r l i e r , t h e u n l o a d i n g o f cement and sugar w i l l s t o p because o f t h e s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y o f t h i s r e g i o n o f t h e s e c o m m o d i t i e s i n t h e f u t u r e . Whereas t h e TSP and DAP f e r t i l i z e r , w h i c h i s n o t p r o d u c e d l o c a l l y , w i l l have t o be unloaded f r o m G r e s i k ( S u r a b a y a ) . The d o m e s t i c u n l o a d i n g o f r i c e w i l l a l s o i n c r e a s e , because t h e p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h can not be c a t e r e d f o r by l o c a l h a r v e s t s . The h i g h i n c r e a s e o f u n l o a d i n g s a l t i s caused by t h e g r o w i n g development o f t h e f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y i n t h e r e g i o n . F i n a l l y , t h e r e w i l l be 15 ( f i f t e e n ) d o m e s t i c c o m m o d i t i e s u n l o a d e d a t Main T e r m i n a l , i n d i c a t e d w i t h t h e i r g r o w t h r a t e [ 7 ] , i , e , : f e r t i l i z e r ( 1 3 % ) , r i c e ( 2 % ) , s a l t ( 7 % ) , a n i m a l f e e d ( 6 % ) , wheat f l o u r ( 3 , 5 % ) , consumergoods ( 8 % ) , n o n - f e r r o ( 4 % ) , c a p i t a l goods ( 8 % ) , i r o n / s t e e l ( 4 % ) , o t h e r f o o d s ( 5 % ) , c h e m i c a l s ( 5 % ) , o i l f a t s ( 8 % ) , a s p h a l t ( 6 % ) , sand/stone ( 3 % ) , and l i v e s t o c k ( 5 % ) .
W i t h r e g a r d t o t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f each commodity over f a c i l i t i e s , i t seems t h a t t h e p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n w i l l c o n t i n u e i n t h e f u t u r e .
There a r e 3 ( t h r e e ) t y p e o f v e s s e l s c a r r y i n g d o m e s t i c i n w a r d c a r g o t o Main T e r m i n a l , i . e . : N u s a n t a r a , L o k a l and
Khusus. The a l l o c a t i o n o f t r a d e t o Khusus v e s s e l s i s s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d , t h a t i s r i c e and o i l f a t s . Whereas t h e p r e s e n t p e r c e n t a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n over N u s a n t a r a and L o k a l a r e 60% and 40% r e s p e c t i v e l y , b u t i t s e e m i n g l y w i l l n o t c o n t i n u e i n t h e f u t u r e . The g r o u p i n g o f t h e p a c k a g i n g f o r m i n t h e d o m e s t i c o u t w a r d c a r g o a l s o a p p l y f o r domestic i n w a r d c a r g o . F i n a l l y , t h e d e t a i l e d f o r e c a s t i n g o f each d o m e s t i c i n w a r d commodity c l a s s i n t o t a l tonnage t h r o u g h p o r t , i t s d i s t r i b u t i o n v i a Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l , i t s a l l o c a t i o n t o s h i p and p a c k a g i n g f o r m , i s p r e s e n t e d i n t a b l e 2.4. 2.4 Ship A r r i v a l F o r e c a s t i n g F i r s t , t h e s i z e o f t h e s h u t t l e s h i p s h o u l d be d e t e r m i n e d . The a n a l y s i s o f t h e c o n s u l t a n t has been a d o p t e d , where t h e e c o n o m i c a l s i z e o f t h i s v e s s e l i s a b o u t 4000 DWT, based on t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h i s v e s s e l w i l l be o n l y used f o r s h u t t l e s e r v i c e between T a n j u n g p r i o k and Palembang, and the cargo h a n d l i n g r a t e i n p o r t o f a b o u t 2000 t o n per day
(see Annex C l ) . Moreover, t h i s s i z e a g r e e w i t h t h e t e c h n i c a l r e q u i r e m e n t , where t h e e c o n o m i c a l l y l i m i t e d d e p t h o f n a v i g a t i o n a l c h a n n e l a l o n g Musi r i v e r i s a b o u t -7 m LWS. F u r t h e r m o r e t h e b a r g e w h i c h w i l l b r i n g some o f t h e e x p o r t e d r u b b e r t o t h e t e r m i n a l ( a b o u t 20% i n 1990, 15% i n 1995 and 10% i n 2005 o f t h e t o t a l e x p o r t e d r u b b e r t h r o u g h Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l ) s h o u l d a l s o be d e t e r m i n e d . The a v e r a g e s i z e o f 180 DWT, s i m i l a r t o t h e barge w h i c h i s a t p r e s e n t r e n d e r i n g m i d s t r e a m o p e r a t i o n , i s assumed f o r t h a t r u b b e r barge [ 7 ] . The amount o f a n n u a l c a r g o , w h i c h w i l l be c a r r i e d by each t y p e o f v e s s e l , i s f o u n d by s u m m a r i z i n g t h e p r e v i o u s t r a d e f o r e c a s t i n g . The average c a r g o l o a d e d and u n l o a d e d t o / f r o m each t y p e o f v e s s e l i s d e t e r m i n e d based upon t h e p a s t d a t a . A s m a l l i n c r e a s e o f t h i s average l o a d i n t h e f u t u r e i s assumed. F i n a l l y t h e number o f a n n u a l a r r i v a l f o r each t y p e of v e s s e l i s d e r i v e d by d i v i d i n g t h e amount o f a n n u a l c a r g o by average l o a d . The r e s u l t o f t h i s c a l c u l a t i o n i s p r e s e n t e d i n t a b l e 2.5. 2.5 C o n t a i n e r T r a f f i c I m p o r t c a r g o a r r i v i n g i n c o n t a i n e r has t o be s t r i p p e d ( i n CFS shed o r y a r d ) , and l o a d e d o n t o t r u c k s i n c o n v e n t i o n a l f o r m f o r d e s t i n a t i o n s i n Palembang and f u r t h e r i n l a n d . E x p o r t cargo a r r i v e s a t i n t e r n a t i o n a l s u b t e r m i n a l on t r u c k s i n c o n v e n t i o n a l f o r m o r on p a l l e t s has t o be s t u f f e d ( i n CFS shed o r y a r d ) i n t o c o n t a i n e r f o r o v e r s e a s d e s t i n a t i o n s . The i m p o r t c o n t a i n e r j u s t s t r i p p e d c a n n o t always be used f o r s t u f f i n g e x p o r t s due t o d i f f e r e n t o w n e r s h i p , p l a n n e d onward d e s t i n a t i o n s , u n s u i t a b l e c o n t a i n e r t y p e , e t c . T h e r e f o r e , i t
i s assumed t h a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y 10% o f i m p o r t c o n t a i n e r s i s an empty c o n t a i n e r s f o r t h e s t u f f i n g e x p o r t c a r g o . The number o f empty c o n t a i n e r s , f u r t h e r m o r e , s h o u l d be c a l c u l a t e d based upon t h e ( u n ) b a l a n c e o f e x p o r t and i m p o r t t r a d e i n c o n t a i n e r . The average l o a d f a c t o r o f a t w e n t y f e e t c o n t a i n e r w i t h i m p o r t c a r g o w i l l u s u a l l y be a b o u t 10.5 t o n p e r TEU [ 7 ] . Meanwhile, t h e average l o a d f a c t o r f o r e x p o r t c a r g o ( w h i c h m a i n l y c o n s i s t o f r u b b e r i n p a l l e t s and c o f f e e i n bags) i s a p p r o x i m a t e d a b o u t 14 t o n p e r TEU [ 7 ] . W i t h f i g u r e above, t h e f o l l o w i n g e s t i m a t e o f t h e t o t a l number o f l o a d e d and empty c o n t a i n e r s i s made, w h i c h have t o be h a n d l e d by i n t e r n a t i o n a l s u b t e r m i n a l i n 1990, 1995 and 2005. I n 1990 - I m p o r t 21.500 = 2050 l o a d e d c o n t a i n e r add 200 10.5 empty = 2250 TEU - E x p o r t 9.500 = 680 l o a d e d c o n t a i n e r add 1570 14 empty = 2250 TEU T o t a l 1.990 f l o w = 450 0 TEU I n 1995 - I m p o r t 38.000 = 3600 l o a d e d c o n t a i n e r s add 10.5 400 empty c o n t a i n e r s = 4000 TEU - E x p o r t 38.500 = 2750 l o a d e d c o n t a i n e r s add 14 1250 empty c o n t a i n e r s = 4000 TEU T o t a l 1995 f l o w 8000 TEU I n 2005 - I m p o r t 91.000 = 8670 l o a d e d c o n t a i n e r s add 10.5 830 empty c o n t a i n e r s = 9500 TEU - E x p o r t 123.500= 8820 l o a d e d c o n t a i n e r s add 14 680 empty c o n t a i n e r s = 9500 TEU T o t a l 2005 f l o w 19000 TEU
I t i s assumed t h a t 10% o f l o a d e d c o n t a i n e r s i n 1995 and 30% of loaded c o n t a i n e r s i n 2005 w i l l be s t r i p p e d and s t u f f e d d i r e c t l y . I t i m p l i e s t h a t t h e s t r i p p e d / s t u f f e d g e n e r a l cargo w i l l n o t s t a y i n p o r t b e f o r e s t r i p p i n g o r s t u f f i n g i s c a r r i e d o u t . T h i s k i n d o f c o n t a i n e r s may be d o o r - t o door FCL o r d i r e c t s t r i p p e d / s t u f f e d LCL. F u r t h e r m o r e i t i s assumed t h e t r a n s i t t i m e o f c o n t a i n e r s c a r r y i n g i m p o r t c a r g o , c o n t a i n e r s c a r r y i n g e x p o r t c a r g o , empty c o n t a i n e r s and c o n t a i n e r i z e d g e n e r a l c a r g o i n CFS shed i s a b o u t 7, 5, 20 and 7 days r e s p e c t i v e l y [ 2 0 ] .
F i n a l l y , i t i s o f i m p o r t a n c e t o check t h e l e v e l o f c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n . By t a k i n g t h e c o n t a i n e r i s a b i l i t y o f 100% f o r r u b b e r , r u b b e r p r o d u c t , c o f f e e , a n i m a l f e e d and o t h e r f o o d s , o f 90% f o r consumer goods, o f 75% f o r c h e m i c a l , o f 50% f o r n o n - f e r r o and c a p i t a l goods, and o f 0% f o r i r o n / s t e e l and a s p h a l t [ 6 ] , t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n i n 1986 and i n t h e f u t u r e a r e e s t i m a t e d below: y e a r E x p o r t & I m p o r t t h r o u g h Main P u b l i c T e r m i n a l ( i n 1000 MT) 1986 1990 1995 2005 88.5 132.5 222 437 C o n t a n e r i z a b l e c a r g o ( i n 1000 MT) 65.5 89 1605 312.5 C o n t a i n e r i z e d c a r g o ( i n 1000 MT) 14.5 31 76.5 214.5 C o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n (%) - o f e x p o r t & i m p o r t cargo - o f c o n t a i n e r i z a b l e cargo 16 22 23 35 35 48 49 69 The above p e r c e n t a g e o f c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n f i t s w i t h t h e e a r l i e r a n t i c i p a t i o n t h a t t h e c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n w i l l c o n t i n u e t o expand t o t h e medium l e v e l .
