Editorial: Introduction to Energy Strategy Reviews theme issue “European Energy System Models”

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EDITORIAL

Introduction to Energy Strategy Reviews theme issue “European Energy

System Models”

Energy matterse we are all reminded on a daily basis. It commonly involves important and costly strategic choices. How then can we make today the best choices for tomorrow’s energy systems? Making optimum energy system decisions is a continuous learning curve. Energy Strategy Reviews (ESR) aims to be a leading publication platform in this knowledge development process.

This ESR issue addresses some of the major challenges and opportunities related to global energy issues. We are proud to feature in ESR another prominent energy leader who presents a visionary statement e from an institutional perspective_{e on future energy} challenges and solutions. In her energy vision contribution to ESR, Mrs. Maria VAN DER HOEVEN, Executive Director IEA, articulates that in the IEA vision, the coordination of international energy governance remains very important. She points out that interna-tional energy governance is, in fact, still gain-ing importance, as the world community must now e even more effectively than in the past_{e address the heightened uncertainty} about energy security and energy invest-ments. On average in 2011, global oil expen-ditures alone breached 5 percent of world GDP, which now threatens to dampen an already slowing economic recovery. Addition-ally, climate change mitigation measures will require upfront choices and investments in game changers. Delaying climate action, means the cost to limit the future impact of global warming impact, is deferred to future generations.

This ESR issue also covers a special theme in its energy strategy analysis section: “Euro-pean Energy System Models”. The analysis section of ESR is specifically dedicated to authoritative full-length analysis of the drivers, trends, scenarios and ramifications of national and international energy strate-gies. This issue highlights how the European Commission decisions on future energy choices are in part based on the PRIMES energy system model. The various scenarios analyzed with the PRIMES energy system model, developed at the E3MLab (Energy-Economy-Environment Modelling laboratory),

National Technical University of Athens, provides the basis for the EU Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050. The underlying methodology and the main conclusions are concisely presented in two ESR energy analysis papers by the E3MLab group.

The first paper by the E3MLab team describes the methodology and main conclu-sions of the PRIMES energy system model and specifies the comparative cost for the different decarbonisation options. Depending upon the available and selected options, the extra cost for decarbonisation_{e as compared} to the reference scenarioe will amount to 0.24_{e1.63 of cumulative GDP. The second} paper by the E3MLab team shows that decar-bonisation of the EU energy system is feasible with current technology, but the cost-efficiency is highest in a strategy option that combines all decarbonisation options e as opposed to strategy solutions that exclude some of the available options. Central in the optimum strategy option is the development of smart grids for the integration of decen-tralized renewable energy resources and intelligent systems to improve the smart grids’ balancing efficiency. Notably, effective climate action can lower global demand for fossil fuels and would therefore dampen the future rise of international fossil fuel prices. A team from IIASA, lead-authored by Mrs. Lena Ho¨GLUND-ISAKSSON, describes the development of emission scenarios for non-CO2GHG’s in the European Union based on

the GAINS methodology and consistent with the EU low-carbon Roadmap 2050. As in the PRIMES model, mitigation efforts of non-CO2

GHG’s remain highly sensitive to the carbon prices in the EU Emission Trading System (EU-ETS) with a minor impact by carbon

prices outside the ETS sectors (non-ETS). More than half of the 26 percent fall of non-CO2GHG’s in the reference scenario,

respec-tively 44 percent in the decarbonisation scenario, can be attributed to the effect of carbon prices (EU-ETS and non-ETS).

A research team from Ecofys, a Dutch-based renewable energy consultancy firm, presents a study lead by Mrs. Yvonne DENG with practical scenarios for a transition to 95 percent sustainable energy systems by 2050. As in all energy system models, the results obtained are a direct output of the critical assumptions. Energy conservation by efficiency improvement measures are described in considerable details. The conclu-sion of this study is, again, that a combination of technology options, supported by certain policy measures, provides the most feasible solution for an effective energy transition within a framework of mixed utility (energy profits and cleanliness) assumptions.

A research team from the Engineering School at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, lead by Mr. David CASTELO BRANCO, proposes a case study with a multi-criteria approach for measuring the carbon-risk expo-sure of oil companies. This study is relevant as it provides a new pathway to benchmark the relative vulnerability of carbon-intensive companies to the effects of climate action policies.

A final (case) study in this issue, by King Min WANG and Yu Ju CHENG, outlines the effort by Taiwan to use feed-in tariffs (FIT’s) to effectively reach renewable energy stra-tegic goals. Taiwan’s efforts in establishing and monitoring FIT’s are compared to global trends and the authors continue to propose a practical system to improve the FIT procurement system.

Contents lists available atSciVerse ScienceDirect

Energy Strategy Reviews

j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e e s . e l s e v i e r . c o m / e s r

Energy Strategy Reviews 1 (2012) 71e72

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We think this second issue of Energy Strategy Reviews is a positive hallmark of its ambitious aim to provide a prominent plat-form for authoritative content in strategic decision-making and vision-sharing related top society’s energy needs. Our review process is rigorous, only 1 out of 7 manu-scripts passes, based upon the assessments of our editors and reviewers. We are actively monitoring the citation rates of ESR articles. These look already promising and we are confident to establish a respectable impact

factor after two years of first publication. Our success is created entirely by the commu-nity of energy system modellers, decision-makers and energy strategy practitioners. ESR authors, reviewers and editors are the exponents of that community. On behalf of all of us involved with ESR, we express grati-tude for your professional efforts in getting ESR underway so well.

Pantelis Capros, Guest Editor National Technical University of Athens, Greece Ruud Weijermars, Editor-in-Chief*

Department of Geotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628CN Delft, The Netherlands * Corresponding author. E-mail address:R.Weijermars@TUDelft.nl

Available online 14 August 2012

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