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ORCID Jan.Szambelanczyk@ue.poznan.pl

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Academic year: 2021

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(1)ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ 

(2) ǣͳͲǤʹ͸͵ͷͶȀ„„Ǥ͵ǤʹǤ͹ͻǤʹͲʹͲ. Ewa Kulińska-Sadłocha* ORCID: 0000-0002-8183-6111 Ewa.Kulińska68@gmail.com. Monika Marcinkowska** ORCID: 0000-0002-3494-9834 monika.marcinkowska@uni.lodz.pl. Jan Szambelańczyk*** ORCID: 0000-0002-4340-5193 Jan.Szambelanczyk@ue.poznan.pl. Š‡‹’ƒ –‘ˆ’ƒ†‡‹ ”‹•‘–Š‡ƒ –‹˜‹–› ‘ˆ„ƒ•„ƒ•‡†‘–Š‡‘Ž‹•Š„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘” ‹–Š‡ˆƒ ‡‘ˆ

(3) Ǧͳͻ. Abstract Š‡ƒ‹‘ˆ–Š‡•–—†›‹•–‘ƒƒŽ›œ‡–Š‡†‹”‡ –ƒ†‹†‹”‡ – ‘•‡“—‡ ‡•‘ˆ–Š‡

(4) Ǧͳͻ’ƒǦ †‡‹ ˆ‘”–Š‡‘Ž‹•Š„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘”Ǥ‡ƒƒŽ›œ‡†ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•ƒ‹‡†ƒ–ƒ‹–ƒ‹‹‰–Š‡„ƒ‹‰ •‡ –‘”ǯ•ƒ„‹Ž‹–›–‘ϐ‹ƒ ‡–Š‡‡ ‘‘›—†‡”–ƒ‡„›–Š‡‰‘˜‡”‡–ǡ ‡–”ƒŽ„ƒǡ„ƒ‹‰ •—’‡”˜‹•‹‘ǡƒ†„ƒ•‹‘Žƒ†ǡƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•ƒ••‡••‡†–Š‡ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ•‹–—ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡„ƒ‹‰ •‡ –‘” ‹ –Š‡ ’‡”‹‘† ’”‡ ‡†‹‰ 

(5) Ǧͳͻ ƒ† •Š‘”–Ž› –Š‡”‡ƒˆ–‡”Ǥ ‡ ˆ‘—† –Šƒ– ƒ–‹Ǧ ”‹•‹• ‡ƒ•—”‡• ƒ† ‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘• ™‡”‡ ”‡ϐŽ‡ –‡† ‹ –Š‡ ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ •‹–—ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ „ƒ• ‹ –Š‡ ϐ‹”•– ‘–Š‘ˆ–Š‡‹”‹–”‘†— –‹‘ǡƒ‘‰‘–Š‡”•ǡ„›ƒ”‹•‡‹™”‹–‡Ǧ‘ˆˆ•ˆ‘”’”‘˜‹•‹‘•ˆ‘””‡ ‡‹˜ƒǦ „Ž‡•ǡƒ‹ ”‡ƒ•‡‹‘–Š‡”‘’‡”ƒ–‹‰ ‘•–•ǡ‘”ƒ•‹‰‹ϐ‹ ƒ–†‡ ”‡ƒ•‡‹”‡ ‡‹˜ƒ„Ž‡•ˆ”‘†‡„– ‹•–”—‡–•ǤŠ‡Žƒ––‡”„‡‹‰†—‡–‘–Š‡ ‡–”ƒŽ„ƒ’”‘˜‹†‹‰ƒ††‹–‹‘ƒŽŽ‹“—‹†‹–›–‘„ƒ•Ǥ ˆ‘”–—ƒ–‡Ž›ǡ ‘–”ƒ”›–‘–Š‡‡š’‡ –ƒ–‹‘•ˆ‘”‹ ”‡ƒ•‡† ”‡†‹–ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„‹Ž‹–›ǡ„ƒ•–‹‰Š–‡‡† –Š‡‹”Ž‡†‹‰’‘Ž‹ ›ƒ†ˆ‘ —•‡†ƒ‹Ž›‘ϐ‹ƒ ‹‰–Š‡‹”‡š‹•–‹‰ Ž‹‡–•™Š‘Šƒ†‘Ž›–‡Ǧ ’‘”ƒ”›ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ’”‘„Ž‡• ƒ—•‡†„›

(6) ǦͳͻǤ‡’‘••‹„Ž‡‡š’Žƒƒ–‹‘ˆ‘”–Š‹•‹•ƒŽƒ  ‘ˆϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ‹ ‡–‹˜‡•ˆ‘”„ƒ•–Šƒ–‡—–”ƒŽ‹œ‡ƒ‹ ”‡ƒ•‡‹”‹•ƒ†‘’‡”ƒ–‹‰ ‘•–•ƒ‹† –Š‡’ƒ†‡‹ ȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥϐ‹• ƒŽȌǡ†‡•’‹–‡–Š‡‡š‹•–‡ ‡‘ˆ•— Š’”‡ˆ‡”‡ ‡•ˆ‘””‡ƒ•—”›•‡ —”‹–‹‡•Ǥ Key words: „ƒǡ„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘”ǡ

(7) Ǧͳͻǡϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽƒ”‡–•ǡŠ‡ƒŽ–Š ”‹•‹•ǡ’ƒ†‡‹ JEL: ʹͳǡ ʹͺǡ

(8) ͳͷǡͳ͸ ȗ. ™ƒ—Ž‹Ñ•ƒǦƒ†Ï‘ ŠƒȂ‘Ž‹•Š ‘‘‹ ‘ ‹‡–›‹ƒ”•ƒ™Ǥ ‘‹ƒƒ” ‹‘™•ƒȂ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‘†œǤ ȗȗȗ ƒœƒ„‡ŽƒÑ œ›Ȃ‘œƒÑ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ ‘‘‹ •ƒ†—•‹‡••Ǥ ȗȗ. ͵ͳ.

(9) ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ. ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•. WpÏyw ryzyka pandemii na dziaÏalnoä© banków na przykÏadzie polskiego sektora bankowego w trakcie COVID-19 Streszczenie ‡Ž‡‘’”ƒ ‘™ƒ‹ƒŒ‡•–ƒƒŽ‹œƒ„‡œ’‘䔇†‹ Š‹’‘䔇†‹ Š‘•‡™‡ Œ‹’ƒ†‡‹‹

(10) Ǧͳͻ †Žƒ’‘Ž•‹‡‰‘•‡–‘”ƒ„ƒ‘™‡‰‘ǤƒŽ‹œ‹‡’‘††ƒ‘†œ‹ƒÏƒ‹ƒƒŒ¦ ‡ƒ ‡Ž—œƒ Š‘™ƒ‹‡œ†‘ŽǦ ‘ä ‹•‡–‘”ƒ„ƒ‘™‡‰‘†‘ϐ‹ƒ•‘™ƒ‹ƒ‰‘•’‘†ƒ”‹’‘†‡Œ‘™ƒ‡’”œ‡œ”œ¦†ǡ„ƒ ‡–”ƒŽǦ ›ǡƒ†œ×”„ƒ‘™›‘”ƒœ„ƒ‹ǡƒ–ƒĂ‡†‘‘ƒ‘ƒƒŽ‹œ›•›–—ƒ Œ‹ϐ‹ƒ•‘™‡Œ•‡–‘”ƒ„ƒ‘Ǧ ™‡‰‘™‘”‡•‹‡’‘’”œ‡†œƒŒ¦ ›

(11) Ǧͳͻ‹’‘’‹‡”™•œ› Šƒ–› ‘˜‹†‘™› Š†œ‹ƒÏƒ‹ƒ ŠǤ œ‹ƒÏƒ‹ƒ ‹ ‹–‡”™‡ Œ‡ ƒ–›”›œ›•‘™‡ œƒŽƒœÏ› ‘†œ™‹‡” ‹‡†Ž‡‹‡ ™ •›–—ƒ Œ‹ ϐ‹ƒ•‘™‡Œ „ƒ×™Œ—Ă™’‹‡”™•œ›‹‡•‹¦ —‹ Š™’”‘™ƒ†œ‡‹ƒǡǤ‹Ǥǣ’‘’”œ‡œœ™‹¸•œ‡‹‡‘†’‹•×™ ƒ ”‡œ‡”™› ƒ ƒŽ‡Ă‘ä ‹ǡ ™œ”‘•– ’‘œ‘•–ƒÏ› Š ‘•œ–×™ ‘’‡”ƒ ›Œ› Š œ› œƒ œ› •’ƒ†‡ ƒŽ‡Ă‘ä ‹œ–›–—Ï—‹•–”—‡–×™†Ï—Л ŠǤ‡‘•–ƒ–‹ƒ•—–‡†‘•–ƒ” œ‡‹ƒ’”œ‡œ„ƒ ‡–”ƒŽ› †‘†ƒ–‘™‡Œ ’Ï›‘ä ‹ „ƒ‘Ǥ ‹‡•–‡–› ™„”‡™ ‘ œ‡‹™ƒ‹‘ œ™‹¸•œ‡‹ƒ †‘Ǧ •–¸’‘ä ‹”‡†›–×™Ȃ„ƒ‹œƒ‘•–”œ›Ï›’‘Ž‹–›¸”‡†›–‘™¦‹•—’‹Ï›•‹¸‰Ïי‹‡ƒϐ‹ƒ•‘Ǧ ™ƒ‹—•™‘‹ Š†‘–› Š œƒ•‘™› ŠŽ‹‡–×™ƒŒ¦ › ŠŒ‡†›‹‡’”œ‡Œä ‹‘™‡’”‘„Ž‡›ϐ‹ƒ•‘™‡ ™›™‘σ‡

(12) ǦͳͻǤ›Œƒä‹‡‹‡–‡‰‘Œ‡•–Ǥ‹Ǥ„”ƒ„‘†Ā יϐ‹ƒ•‘™› Š†Žƒ„ƒ×™ ‡—–”ƒŽ‹œ—Œ¦ › Š ™œ”‘•– ”›œ›ƒ ‹ ‘•œ–×™ †œ‹ƒÏƒŽ‘ä ‹ ™ ™ƒ”—ƒ Š ’ƒ†‡‹‹ ȋ’Ǥ ϐ‹•ƒŽǦ › ŠȌǡƒŒ‡†‘ œ‡ä‹‡‹•–‹‡‹‡–ƒ‹ Š’”‡ˆ‡”‡ Œ‹†Žƒ•ƒ”„‘™› Š’ƒ’‹‡”×™™ƒ”–‘ä ‹‘™› ŠǤ SÏowa kluczowe: „ƒǡ •‡–‘” „ƒ‘™›ǡ 

(13) Ǧͳͻǡ ”›‡ ϐ‹ƒ•‘™›ǡ ”›œ›• œ†”‘™‘–›ǡ ’ƒ†‡‹ƒ. Introduction ͵Ͳ ƒ—ƒ”›ʹͲʹͲǡ–Š‡‘”Ž† ‡ƒŽ–Š”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘ȋ Ȍ†‡ Žƒ”‡†–Š‡ʹͲͳͻǦ‘ ‘”‘ƒ˜‹”—•ǡ ™Š‹ Š Šƒ† ϐ‹”•– ƒ’’‡ƒ”‡† ‹ ‘˜‡„‡” ʹͲͳͻ ‹ –Š‡ Š‹‡•‡ ‹–› ‘ˆ —Šƒǡƒ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ’—„Ž‹ Š‡ƒŽ–Š‡‡”‰‡ ›Ǥ

(14) ǦͳͻͳŠƒ•„‡ ‘‡ƒ•‡”‹‘—• –Š”‡ƒ– –‘ Š—ƒ Š‡ƒŽ–Š ™‘”Ž†™‹†‡ ƒ† –Š‡ •–‡’• –ƒ‡ „› †‹ˆˆ‡”‡– ‘—–”‹‡• –‘ Ž‹‹––Š‡•’”‡ƒ†‘ˆ–Š‡˜‹”—•ƒ†ƒƒ‰‡–Š‡’ƒ†‡‹ Šƒ˜‡”‡•—Ž–‡†ǡƒ‘‰‘–Š‡” –Š‹‰•ǡ ‹ ƒ •—††‡ †”‘’ ‹ ‡ ‘‘‹  ƒ –‹˜‹–› ƒ† –Š‡ †‡ƒ –‹˜ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ ™‘”‡”•Ǥ ‡•–”‹ –‹‘•ƒ†„ƒ•‹–”‘†— ‡†–‘’”‘–‡ ––Š‡Š‡ƒŽ–Šƒ†Ž‹ˆ‡‘ˆ–Š‡’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘Šƒ˜‡ ‘–”‹„—–‡†–‘ƒ”‡†— –‹‘‘”Ž‘••‹‹ ‘‡ƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•‹–Š‡ƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ„—•‹‡••‡• ƒ† –Š‡ ’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘ –‘ ’ƒ› –Š‡‹” ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ ‘„Ž‹‰ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ ƒ› ‰‘˜‡”‡–• Šƒ˜‡ ”‡ƒ–‡† ‡‡”‰‡ › ƒ••‹•–ƒ ‡ ’”‘‰”ƒ‡• –‘ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‡ –Š‡ •Š‘”–Ǧ–‡” ‡ ‘‘‹  ‹’ƒ –‘ˆ–Š‡’ƒ†‡‹ ǡƒ†–‘ ‘—–‡”ƒ ––Š‡‡ ‘‘‹ †‘™–—”Ǥ Š‡ʹͲʹͲ’ƒ†‡‹ ‹•ƒŠ‡ƒŽ–Š ”‹•‹•ǡ‹•‘‡Ž‘ ƒ–‹‘•‡˜‡ƒŠ—ƒ‹–ƒ”‹ƒ‘‡ǡ ƒ†ƒŠ—‰‡•Š‘ –‘•‘ ‹‘Ǧ‡ ‘‘‹ •›•–‡•ǡ‹ Ž—†‹‰ǡ•‘‘‡”‘”Žƒ–‡”ǡ–Š‡„ƒ‹‰ •‡ –‘”Ǥ Ž–Š‘—‰Š –Š‡ ƒ –‹˜‹–› ‘ˆ „ƒ• ‹ –Š‡ ϐ‹”•– •–ƒ‰‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡’‹†‡‹  ™ƒ• ‘– •‹‰‹ϐ‹ ƒ–Ž›ƒˆˆ‡ –‡†ǡ–Š‹••‹–—ƒ–‹‘ƒ› Šƒ‰‡‹–Š‡•—„•‡“—‡–•–ƒ‰‡•ǡƒ†‡˜‡ ƒˆ–‡”–Š‡’ƒ†‡‹ Šƒ•„‡‡ ‘–ƒ‹‡†ǤŠ‹• ‘ ‡”•‹’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”–Š‡†‡–‡”‹‘”ƒ–‹‘ ͳ.

(15)  ‡„”—ƒ”›ʹͲʹͲǡ–Š‡ ƒ‘— ‡†ǡ–Šƒ––Š‡‘ˆϐ‹ ‹ƒŽƒ‡‘ˆ–Š‡ʹͲͳͻǦ‘ȋŽ•‘‘™ƒ•–Š‡ ‘˜‡Ž‘”‘ƒ˜‹”—•‘”‹ˆ‘”ƒŽŽ›‘™ƒ•–Š‡—Šƒ‘”‘ƒ˜‹”—•Ȍ™‹ŽŽ„‡Dz‘˜‹†ǦʹͲͳͻdzǤ. ͵ʹ.

(16) ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ. ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•. ‘ˆ–Š‡ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ•‹–—ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ —•–‘‡”•ƒ† ‘–”ƒ –‘”•ǡƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•†‹•–—”„ƒ ‡•‘ –Š‡ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽƒ”‡–•Ǥ‹–Š–Š‡•—’’‘”–‘ˆ”‡‰—Žƒ–‘”•ƒ†•—’‡”˜‹•‘”•ǡ„ƒ• ƒ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‡–Š‡‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡‡ˆˆ‡ –•„›ǡˆ‘”‡šƒ’Ž‡ǡ–ƒ‹‰ƒ –‹‘•ƒ‹‡†ƒ–ƒ‹–ƒ‹‹‰ ‘””‡’ƒ‹”‹‰–Š‡‡ ‘‘›‘ˆ‡–‡”’”‹•‡•ǡ’”‡˜‡–‹‰–Š‡Ž‘••‘ˆŒ‘„•‘”‹ ‘‡‘ˆ ‡’Ž‘›‡‡•ƒ† —•–‘‡”•ǡƒ†ǡϐ‹ƒŽŽ›ǡƒ†ƒ’–‹‰–Š‡‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘ƒ†ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•‘ˆ „ƒ•–‘–Š‡‡™•‹–—ƒ–‹‘ǡ™Š‹Ž‡ƒ‹–ƒ‹‹‰–Š‡’”‹ ‹’Ž‡•‘ˆ”‡•’‘•‹„Ž‡„ƒ‹‰Ǥ Š‡ ƒ‹ ‘ˆ –Š‡ •–—†› ‹• –‘ ƒƒŽ›œ‡ –Š‡ †‹”‡ – ƒ† ‹†‹”‡ – ‘•‡“—‡ ‡• ‘ˆ –Š‡ 

(17) Ǧͳͻ’ƒ†‡‹ ˆ‘”–Š‡‘Ž‹•Š„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘”Ǥ’‹”‹ ƒŽƒƒŽ›œ‡•™‡”‡’”‡ ‡†‡† „›–Š‡ Šƒ”ƒ –‡”‹œƒ–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡’ƒ†‡‹ ƒ†„›–Š‡’‡”‹‘†‹œƒ–‹‘ƒ†•›•–‡ƒ–‹œƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ ƒ –‹‘• ƒ‹‡† ƒ– ”‡•–‘”‹‰ –Š‡ •–ƒ„‹Ž‹–› ‘ˆ –Š‡ •‘ ‹‘Ǧ‡ ‘‘‹  •›•–‡Ǥ Š‡ǡ –Š‡ ‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘• ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‰‘˜‡”‡–ǡ ‡–”ƒŽ „ƒ Ȃ –Š‡ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ƒ ‘ˆ ‘Žƒ† ȋƒ”‘†‘™› ƒ ‘Ž•‹ǡ Ȍǡ ƒ† –Š‡ ‘Ž‹•Š ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ —’‡”˜‹•‹‘ —–Š‘”‹–› ȋ‘‹•Œƒ ƒ†œ‘”— ‹ƒ•‘™‡‰‘ǡ  Ȍ ƒ‹‡† ƒ– ƒ‹–ƒ‹‹‰ –Š‡ ƒ„‹Ž‹–› ‘ˆ ”‡†‹– ‹•–‹–—–‹‘•–‘ϐ‹ƒ ‡–Š‡‡ ‘‘›ƒ––Š‡‡š’‡•‡‘ˆ‹ ”‡ƒ•‡†•›•–‡‹ ”‹•ƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ• „ƒ’”‘’‘•ƒŽ•’”‡’ƒ”‡†„›–Š‡‘Ž‹•Šƒ••‘ ‹ƒ–‹‘ȋ™‹¦œ‡ƒ×™‘Ž•‹ Šǡ Ȍǡ™‡”‡‹˜‡–‘”‹‡†ǤŠ‡–‹‡Š‘”‹œ‘‘ˆ‡’‹”‹ ƒŽƒƒŽ›œ‡•‡†•™‹–Š†ƒ–ƒˆ”‘ ƒ›ʹͲǡʹͲʹͲǡ™‹–Š–Š‡‘–ŠŽ›ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ†ƒ–ƒ‘ˆ–Š‡„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘”’—„Ž‹•Š‡†„›–Š‡ ƒ†–Š‡  ‘˜‡”‹‰–Š‡’‡”‹‘†„ƒ —’–‘ƒ” Š͵ͳǡʹͲʹͲǤ. 1. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic systems ‹•–‘”‹ ƒŽ ‡š’‡”‹‡ ‡ •Š‘™• –Šƒ– ‡˜‡”› ‡’‹†‡‹ ǡ ƒ† ‡•’‡ ‹ƒŽŽ› ƒ ’ƒ†‡‹ ʹǡ •‹‹Žƒ”Ž›–‘‘–Š‡””ƒ†‘‡˜‡–•™‹–ŠŠƒ˜‡ƒŠ—‰‡‹’ƒ –‘–Š‡‹–‡”ƒŽǡ‡š–‡”ƒŽ ‘”‡˜‡‰Ž‘„ƒŽ‡˜‹”‘‡–ȋ•‘ ƒŽŽ‡†Dz„Žƒ •™ƒ•dzȌǡ‹• Šƒ”ƒ –‡”‹•‡†„›„‘–Š–Š‡‹” —’”‡†‹ –ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ƒ††‹ˆϐ‹ —Ž–›‹•—”‘—–‹‰Ǥ˜‡”›’ƒ†‡‹ ‹•ƒ ‘’ƒ‹‡†„› ‰”‘™‹‰ •‘ ‹ƒŽ —”‡•–ǡ •‘‡–‹‡• ‰‡‡”ƒ–‹‰ ’ƒ‹  ƒ‘‰ –Š‡ ’—„Ž‹  ƒ† ’‘Ž‹ ›Ǧ ƒ‡”•͵ǤŠ‡›‡š’‘•‡–Š‡’‘™‡”Ž‡••‡••‘ˆ‡†‹ ‹‡‹–Š‡ˆƒ ‡‘ˆƒ‡™†‹•‡ƒ•‡ƒ– –Š‡•ƒ‡–‹‡”ƒ’‹†Ž›ƒ†•‹‰‹ϐ‹ ƒ–Ž› Šƒ‰‹‰–Š‡•‘ ‹ƒŽ‘”‡ ‘‘‹ •‹–—ƒ–‹‘ǡ ƒˆˆ‡ –‹‰‡˜‡–Š‡’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ•‹–—ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ‹ˆ‡ –‡†ƒ–‹‘Ȁ•ͶǤ. ʹ. Ǥ— ƒǡǤ ‘––ǡCzarna ämier© epidemie w Europie od staroĂytnoäci do czasów wspóÏczesnychǡ‡ŽǦ Ž‘ƒǡƒ”•ƒ™ʹͲʹͲǤ ͵ Ǥ Ǥ ‹„„‹ǡǤ ‡”ƒ†‘ǡThe Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenariosǡ ‘”‹‰ ƒ’‡” ͳͻȀʹͲʹͲǡ ‡„”—ƒ”› ʹͲʹͲǡ Š––’•ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ”‡•‡ƒ” Š‰ƒ–‡Ǥ‡–Ȁ’—„Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘Ȁ͵͵ͻ͸ͷͺ͵͵͹̴ Š‡̴ Ž‘„ƒŽ̴ƒ ”‘‡ ‘‘‹ ̴

(18) ’ƒ –•̴‘ˆ̴

(19) Ǧͳͻ̴‡˜‡̴ ‡ƒ”‹‘•ȋƒ ‡••ͳ͸ǤͲͶǤʹͲʹͲȌǤ Ͷ Ǥ ƒ˜‹ •ǡA Look at COVID 19 in terms of 10. Economicsǡ‘•–ƒ’‡”—ƒ”›ǡͳͳǤͲͶǤʹͲʹͲǡŠ––’•ǣȀȀ ™™™Ǥ”‡•‡ƒ” Š‰ƒ–‡Ǥ‡–Ȁ’—„Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘Ȁ͵ͶͲͷͶͲ͵͵͹̴ ƒ˜‹ •̴̴‘‘̴ƒ–̴

(20) ̴ͳͻ̴‹̴–‡”•̴‘ˆ̴ͳͲ̴ ‘Ǧ ‘‹ •̴ʹͲʹͲ̴͵„̴ͲͶͲͻʹͲ̴‡  ȋƒ ‡•• ʹ͸ǤͲͶǤʹͲʹͲȌǢ Ǥ Ǥ  ‹„„‹ǡ Ǥ ‹†‘”‡‘ǡ Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Inϔluenzaǡ  ‹• ‡ŽŽƒ‡‘—• —„Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘•ǡ ‡„”—ƒ”› ʹͲͲ͸ǡ Š––’•ǣȀȀ ƒƒǤ ”ƒ™ˆ‘”†Ǥƒ—Ǥ‡†—Ǥƒ—Ȁ•‹–‡•Ȁ†‡ˆƒ—Ž–Ȁϐ‹Ž‡•Ȁ’—„Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘Ȁ ƒƒ̴ ”ƒ™ˆ‘”†̴ƒ—̴‡†—̴ ƒ—ȀʹͲͳ͹ǦͲʹȀʹ͸̴ ‹„„‹̴•‹†‘”‡‘̴ʹͲͲ͸Ǥ’†ˆ ȋƒ ‡•• ͳ͸ǤͲͶǤʹͲʹͲȌǢ ǤǤ Šƒ‘ǡ Ǥ ‹ŽŽ‘—‰Š„›ǡ Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Asia: A Medical Geographic Perspectiveǡ—”ƒ•‹ƒ ‡‘Ǧ ‰”ƒ’Š›ƒ† ‘‘‹ •ʹͲͲͶǡ‘ͶͷȋͷȌǡ’’Ǥ͵͹ͳȂ͵͹ʹǤ. ͵͵.

(21) ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ. ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•.  ‹‡–‹ϐ‹  •–—†‹‡• ƒ† •’‡ ‹ƒŽ‹•– ”‡’‘”–• ȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ „›  Ȍ ‹†‹ ƒ–‡ Ž‹• ‘‡ –‹‰ –Š‡Š‡ƒŽ–Š‘ˆ–Š‡’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘™‹–Š•‘ ‹ƒŽ™‡Žˆƒ”‡ǡ‡ ‘‘‹ ‰”‘™–Šǡƒ†•‘ ‹ƒŽƒ† ‡ ‘‘‹  †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–ͷǤ Š‡ ‡ ‘‘‹  ‹’ƒ –• ‘ˆ ’ƒ†‡‹ • Šƒ˜‡ „‡‡ ƒ† ƒ”‡ „‡‹‰ƒƒŽ›•‡†‘”•–—†‹‡†‘–Š‡‰Ž‘„ƒŽǡ”‡‰‹‘ƒŽǡƒ†‡˜‡Ž‘ ƒŽ• ƒŽ‡ǤŠ‡ˆ‘ —• ‹• ƒ‹Ž› ‘ –Š‡ ƒƒŽ›•‹• ‘ˆ ‡ ‘‘‹  ”‡•—Ž–•ǡ ‹ Ž—†‹‰ ‹ ’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ” Šƒ‰‡• ‹ –Š‡ ˜‘Ž—‡ ƒ† †›ƒ‹ • ‘ˆ ǡ ˜ƒ”‹‘—• •‘ ‹ƒŽ ‘•‡“—‡ ‡•ǡ ƒ• ™‡ŽŽ ƒ• –Š‡ ‡ˆˆ‡ –‹˜‡‡••‘ˆ’”‘Œ‡ –•—†‡”–ƒ‡–‘•–‘’–Š‡•’”‡ƒ†‘ˆ–Š‡†‹•‡ƒ•‡ƒ†–‘‹–‹‰ƒ–‡ ‹–•‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡‡ˆˆ‡ –•ƒ†ƒ˜‡”•‹˜‡„‡Šƒ˜‹‘—”•͸Ǥ Š‡‡š’‡”‹‡ ‡‘ˆ ‘—–”‹‡•ƒˆˆ‡ –‡†„›

(22) Ǧͳͻ•Š‘™•–Šƒ–‹–ƒˆˆ‡ –•–Š‡•‘ ‹ƒŽ ƒ†‡ ‘‘‹ •›•–‡•–Š”‘—‰Š͹ǣ Ȃ ƒ”‡†— –‹‘‹‘”•Ž‘™‹‰†‘™‘ˆ‡ ‘‘‹ ƒ –‹˜‹–›ȋ’”‘†— –‹‘ǡ†‹•–”‹„—–‹‘ǡ ‘‡” ‡ƒ†•‡”˜‹ ‡•Ȍ‘ƒƒ ”‘• ƒŽ‡ǡƒ‹Ž›”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘–Š‡ˆ”‡‡œ‹‰‘ˆ–Š‡ ‡ ‘‘›ƒ†Ž‘ †‘™‹ ‡”–ƒ‹‹†—•–”‹‡•‘””‡‰‹‘•ǡ Ȃ ƒ”‡†— –‹‘‹–Š‡ ‘•—’–‹‘‘ˆ‰‘‘†•ƒ†•‡”˜‹ ‡•ƒ•ƒ”‡•—Ž–‘ˆ’”‡˜‡–‹˜‡ ‡ƒ•—”‡•ƒ†‘”„‹†‹–›ȋ†‡ƒ–Š•ǡ‹•‘Žƒ–‹‘ǡ“—ƒ”ƒ–‹‡ǡ•‘ ‹ƒŽ†‹•–ƒ ‹‰ǡŽƒ ‘ˆ ƒ ‡••–‘†‹•–”‹„—–‹‘’‘‹–•ǡ‡– ǤȌǡ Ȃ ƒ†‹•”—’–‹‘‹–Š‡•—’’Ž› Šƒ‹ƒ†–Š‡ˆ— –‹‘‹‰‘ˆƒ”‡–•ȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ†—‡–‘”‡Ǧ •–”‹ –‹‘•‘”•Ž‘™†‘™•‹ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ†‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ–”ƒ•’‘”–ǡ„‘”†‡” Ž‘•—Ǧ ”‡•Ȍƒ†ƒ”‡ƒŽ‘”‡š’‡ –‡†”‡†— –‹‘‹–Š‡’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘ǯ•‹ ‘‡ǡ Ȃ –Š‡ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ•‹–—ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ‡–‡”’”‹•‡•Ȃƒ•ƒ”‡•—Ž–‘ˆƒ†‡ ”‡ƒ•‡ǡ’‘•–’‘‡‡– ‘” Šƒ‰‡ ‹ –Š‡ •–”— –—”‡ ‘ˆ †‡ƒ†ǡ †‡ ”‡ƒ•‡ ‹ ’”‘ϐ‹–ƒ„‹Ž‹–› ‘ˆ ‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘•ǡ Ž‹“—‹†‹–›’”‘„Ž‡•”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘ˆ”‡‡œ‹‰‘”†‡Žƒ›•‹‡ ‘‘‹ •‡––Ž‡‡–•ǡ†‡„–‘” ‹ ”‡ƒ•‡†‹˜‡•–‡–”‹•ǡ Ȃ ’‡”–—”„ƒ–‹‘•‹ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽƒ”‡–•ȋ‡Ǥ‰ǤˆƒŽŽ‹’”‹ ‡•‘ˆ•‡ —”‹–‹‡•ǡƒ‹Ž› ‘”Ǧ ’‘”ƒ–‡•Šƒ”‡•ƒ†„‘†•ǡ Šƒ‰‡•‹‹–‡”‡•–”ƒ–‡•ǡ —””‡ ›ϐŽ— –—ƒ–‹‘•ǡ‹ ”‡Ǧ ƒ•‡†”‹•ƒ˜‡”•‹‘ǡ•’‡ —Žƒ–‹˜‡ƒ –‹‘•ƒ†‹•‘Ž˜‡ ›‘ˆ†‡„–‘”•Ȍǡ Ȃ ƒ•ƒŽŽ‡”•–”‡ƒ‘ˆ–ƒš‡•ƒ†ƒ‹ ”‡ƒ•‡‹ ‡–”ƒŽƒ†Ž‘ ƒŽ‰‘˜‡”‡–•’‡Ǧ †‹‰ǡŽ‡ƒ†‹‰–‘ƒ„—†‰‡–†‡ϐ‹ ‹–ƒ†’—„Ž‹ †‡„–Ǥ ͷ. ǤǤŽ‘‘ǡǤƒ‹‰ǡ Ǥ‡˜‹ŽŽƒǡThe Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidenceǡ ‘”‹‰ƒ’‡”‘Ǥͺͷͺ͹ǡ

(23) ••—‡†‹‘˜‡„‡”ʹͲͲͳǡŠ––’•ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ„‡”Ǥ‘”‰Ȁ’ƒ’‡”•Ȁ™ͺͷͺ͹Ǥ’†ˆȋƒ Ǧ ‡•• ͳͶǤͲͶǤʹͲʹͲȌǢ ǤǤ Ž‘‘ǡ Ǥ ƒ‹‰ǡ Population Health and Economic Growth. Commission on Growth and Developmentǡ‘”‹‰ƒ’‡”ǡ‘ǤʹͶǡƒ•Š‹‰–‘ǡǣ‘”Ž†ƒʹͲͲͺǡŠ––’•ǣȀȀ‘’‡Ǧ ‘™Ž‡†‰‡Ǥ™‘”Ž†„ƒǤ‘”‰ȀŠƒ†Ž‡ȀͳͲͻͺ͸ȀʹͺͲ͵͸ȋƒ ‡••ʹͶǤͲͶǤʹͲʹͲȌǢHealth and Economic Growth, Findings and Policy Implicationsǡ Ǥג‡œǦƒ•ƒ•‘˜ƒ•ǡǤ‹˜‡”ƒǡǤ—””ƒ‹•ȋ‡†ǤȌǡŠ‡

(24) ”‡••ʹͲͲ͹Ǣ Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic DevelopmentǤ‡’‘”–‘ˆ–Š‡‘‹•Ǧ •‹‘ ‘ ƒ ”‘‡ ‘‘‹ • ƒ† ‡ƒŽ–Šǡ ‘”Ž† ‡ƒŽ–Š ”‰ƒ‹œƒ–‹‘ ʹͲͲͳǡ Š––’•ǣȀȀƒ’’•Ǥ™Š‘Ǥ‹–Ȁ‹”‹•Ȁ „‹–•–”‡ƒȀŠƒ†Ž‡ȀͳͲ͸͸ͷȀͶʹͶ͵ͷȀͻʹͶͳͷͶͷͷͲǤ’†ˆǢ•‡“—‡ ‡αͳȋƒ ‡••ͳͲǤͲͶǤʹͲʹͲȌǤ ͸ World Bank Group. 2014. The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic: Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa. ƒ•Š‹‰–‘ǡ ǣ ‘”Ž† ƒ ʹͲͳͶǡ Š––’•ǣȀȀ‘’‡‘™Ž‡†‰‡Ǥ™‘”Ž†„ƒǤ ‘”‰ȀŠƒ†Ž‡ȀͳͲͻͺ͸ȀʹͲͷͻʹȋƒ ‡••ͳʹǤͲͶǤʹͲʹͲȌǤ ͹ Ǥƒ ŠƒǡThe economic impact of COVID-19 (novel coronavirus)ǡŠ––’•ǣȀȀ™™™ʹǤ†‡Ž‘‹––‡Ǥ ‘Ȁ—•Ȁ ‡Ȁ‹•‹‰Š–•Ȁ‡ ‘‘›Ȁ

(25) ǦͳͻȀ‡ ‘‘‹ Ǧ‹’ƒ –Ǧ

(26) ǦͳͻǤŠ–Ž ȋƒ ‡•• ʹͳǤͲ͵ǤʹͲʹͲȌǢ Ǥ ˜ƒ•ǡ Ǥ ˜‡”ǡ The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Low- and Middle-Income Countriesǡ Š––’•ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ ‰Ǧ †‡˜Ǥ‘”‰Ȁ„Ž‘‰Ȁ‡ ‘‘‹ Ǧ‹’ƒ –Ǧ

(27) ǦͳͻǦŽ‘™Ǧƒ†Ǧ‹††Ž‡Ǧ‹ ‘‡Ǧ ‘—–”‹‡• ȋƒ ‡•• ʹͲǤͲ͵ǤʹͲʹͲȌǢ Ǥ ƒ—‰Š–‘ǡ Combat The Economic Impact Of COVID-19ǡ Š––’ǣȀȀŒƒƒ‹ ƒǦ‰Ž‡ƒ‡”Ǥ ‘Ȁƒ”–‹ Ž‡Ȁ ‡™•ȀʹͲʹͲͲ͵ʹͷȀ ‘„ƒ–Ǧ‡ ‘‘‹ Ǧ‹’ƒ –Ǧ

(28) Ǧͳͻȋƒ ‡••͵ͳǤͲ͵ǤʹͲʹͲȌǤ. ͵Ͷ.

(29) ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ. ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•. Š‡•‡ ‰‡‡”ƒŽ –”‡†• ƒ† ’ƒ––‡”• ‘‡š‹•– ™‹–Š ‘–Š‡”• ‹ •‘‡ ƒ”‡– ‹ Š‡•ǡ ‡•’‡ ‹ƒŽŽ›–Š‘•‡”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘’”‡˜‡–‹‰‘” ‘„ƒ–‹‰–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡ –•‘ˆ–Š‡’ƒ†‡‹ Ǥ Š‡ ƒƒ‰‡‡– ƒ† ‘–ƒ‹‡– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ’ƒ†‡‹  ‹˜‘Ž˜‡• –Š‡ ‹–”‘†— –‹‘ ‘ˆ ƒ —„‡” ‘ˆ ”‡•–”‹ –‹‘•ǡ ‹ Ž—†‹‰ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‘‡•ǡ ™Š‹ Š ”‡•—Ž– ‹ ƒ †”‘’ ‹ ‡ ‘‘‹  ƒ –‹˜‹–› ƒ† ‡’Ž‘›‡– ƒ• ƒ ”‡•—Ž– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ˆ”‡‡œ‹‰ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡ ‘‘› ȋ•‡‡ƒ„Ž‡ͳȌǤŠ‡–Š‡‡ ‘‘›‹•ˆ”‘œ‡ǡ•–‡’•ƒ”‡–ƒ‡–‘‡•—”‡–Š‡ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ •–ƒ„‹Ž‹–› ‘ˆ „—•‹‡••‡• ƒ† Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•ǡ ƒ† –‘ ‹’”‘˜‡ –Š‡ Šƒ ‡• ‘ˆ ƒ ”ƒ’‹† ”‡„‘—†–Š”‘—‰Š‡ ‘‘‹ ”‡ ‘˜‡”›Ǥ

(30) –‹•ƒ†‹ˆϐ‹ —Ž–ƒ† ‘’Ž‡š–ƒ•–‘ƒ‹–ƒ‹ –Š‡ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽŽ‹“—‹†‹–›‘ˆ ‘’ƒ‹‡•ǡ™‹–Š‘—–™Š‹ Š•‘‡‘ˆ–Š‡™‹ŽŽ‘–„‡ƒ„Ž‡–‘ ‘–‹—‡–Š‡‹”ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•ǤŠ‡Žƒ––‡”–ƒ•ǡ™‹–Šƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡”‡‰—Žƒ–‹‘•ǡ ‘ ‡”•–Š‡ „ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘”‹’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”Ǥ–‘’’‹‰ƒ†–Š‡‰”ƒ†—ƒŽŽ›”‡†— ‹‰’‡ƒ‘”„‹†‹–› ƒ† ‘”–ƒŽ‹–› ‡ƒ„Ž‡• •‡Ž‡ –‹˜‡ ”‡Žƒšƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ •‘ ‹ƒŽ †‹•–ƒ ‹‰ ”‡•–”‹ –‹‘• ƒ† †‡ˆ”‘•–‹‰ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡ ‘‘›Ǥ ˆ–‡” ƒ ’ƒ†‡‹  Šƒ• ‡ƒ•‡†ǡ ‘” ƒƒ‰‡‡– ‘ˆ –Š‡ •’”‡ƒ†‘ˆ–Š‡†‹•‡ƒ•‡Šƒ•„‡‡‡•—”‡†‹ƒ‰‹˜‡ ‘—–”›ǡƒ”‡ ‘˜‡”›’Šƒ•‡„‡‰‹•Ǥ ƒ‹‰ —’ ˆ‘” Ž‘•– ‹ ‘‡ ‹• ‘– ’‘••‹„Ž‡ –‘ ƒ Š‹‡˜‡ –‘ –Š‡ •ƒ‡ ‡š–‡– ‹ ƒŽŽ •‡ –‘”•ǡƒ†‹ƒ› ƒ•‡•’”‘˜‡••‹’Ž›‹’‘••‹„Ž‡ǡ‹ Ž—†‹‰–‘—”‹•ǡ ƒ–‡”‹‰ǡ ”‡ ”‡ƒ–‹‘ǡ–”ƒ•’‘”–ǡ —Ž–—”‡ƒ†ƒ”–Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ”‡–ƒ‹Ž‘”ƒ—ˆƒ –—”‹‰‹†—•–”‹‡• –Šƒ– ƒ”‡ ƒ„Ž‡ –‘ ƒ‡ —’ ˆ‘” ‘•– ‘ˆ –Š‡ Ž‘•– „‡‡ϐ‹–• ‘ ‡ –Š‡› ”‡•—‡ ƒ –‹˜‹–› ‘—‰Š––‘„‡‹“—‹–‡ƒ†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–’‘•‹–‹‘ǡ’”‘˜‹†‡†–Šƒ– ‘•—‡”•™‹ŽŽ‘–ƒ†‘’– ƒ •ƒ˜‹‰ ƒ––‹–—†‡ ‹ ƒ•‡ ‘ˆ ƒ ”‡Žƒ’•‡Ǥ  –‹‘• •—’’‘”–‹‰ ™‡ƒ‡‡† †‡ƒ† „› Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†• ƒ† ‡–”‡’”‡‡—”•ǡ ƒ• ™‡ŽŽ ƒ• ƒŽŽ‡˜‹ƒ–‹‰ –Š‡ •‘ ‹ƒŽ ƒ† ‡ ‘‘‹  ‡ˆˆ‡ –•‘ˆ—‡’Ž‘›‡– ƒ—•‡†’”‹ƒ”‹Ž›„›–Š‡ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ•‹–—ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ‡’Ž‘›‡”•ǡ ƒ”‡’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”Ž›‹’‘”–ƒ–†—”‹‰—ˆ”‡‡œ‹‰ƒ†ƒˆ–‡”Ž‘ †‘™ǤŽŽ–Š‡‘”‡•‘ „‡ ƒ—•‡•‘‡‡–”‡’”‡‡—”•”‡†— ‡‘”†‡Žƒ›‹˜‡•–‡–•ǡ‘”–Š‡—•‡‘ˆ„—•‹‡•• •—’’‘”– •‡”˜‹ ‡•ǡ ‘– ‘Ž› ƒ• ƒ ”‡•—Ž– ‘ˆ •Š”‹‹‰ †‡ƒ†ǡ „—– ƒŽ•‘ †—‡ –‘ — ‡”–ƒ‹–›ǡ’ƒ›‡– ‘‰‡•–‹‘‘”†‹ˆϐ‹ —Ž–‹‡•‹‘„–ƒ‹‹‰‡š–‡”ƒŽϐ‹ƒ ‹‰Ǥ Š‡”‡–—”‘ˆ–Š‡‡ ‘‘›–‘‹–•’”‡Ǧ’ƒ†‡‹ •–ƒ–‡‹• ‘†‹–‹‘‡†‹ƒ›™ƒ›•ǡ ƒ†‹–Š‡’‡••‹‹•–‹ • ‡ƒ”‹‘‹–ƒ›–ƒ‡•‡˜‡”ƒŽ›‡ƒ”•Ǥ—”‹‰–Š‹•’‡”‹‘†ǡƒ› Šƒ‰‡•ƒ”‡–‘„‡‡š’‡ –‡†‹–Š‡‡ ‘‘‹ ǡϐ‹• ƒŽƒ†„—†‰‡–ƒ”›’‘Ž‹ ‹‡•ƒ•™‡ŽŽ ƒ•‹„—•‹‡••ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•ǡ‹ Ž—†‹‰„—•‹‡••‘†‡Ž•ƒ†•–”ƒ–‡‰‹‡•ǤŠƒ‰‡•‹–Š‡ •–”— –—”‡‘ˆ ‘•—’–‹‘‡‡†•ƒ†•‘ ‹ƒŽ„‡Šƒ˜‹‘—”ƒ”‡•‹‹Žƒ”Ž›Š‹‰ŠŽ›Ž‹‡Ž›Ǥ ‡‘ˆ–Š‡„ƒ•‹  ‘†‹–‹‘•ˆ‘”ex ante ”‹•‹•ƒƒ‰‡‡–‘ˆƒ‡’‹†‡‹ Ȁ’ƒ†‡‹ ‹• –Š‡ƒ†‘’–‹‘‘ˆ†‹ˆˆ‡”‡––”ƒ•‹••‹‘• ‡ƒ”‹‘•„ƒ•‡†‘•‹—Žƒ–‹‘”‡•—Ž–•ǡ„‘–Š‹ –‡”•‘ˆ–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ‹ˆ‡ –‡†’‡”•‘•ƒ†–Š‡‹” Šƒ”ƒ –‡”‹•–‹ •ǡ‹ Ž—†‹‰–‡””‹–‘”‹ƒŽ †‹•–”‹„—–‹‘ ™‹–Š †‹•‡ƒ•‡ ‹–‡•‹–›ǡ ƒ† ‹ –‡”• ‘ˆ †—”ƒ–‹‘Ǥ ƒŽ›–‹ ƒŽ ‡–Š‘†• ƒ†‹•–”—‡–•„ƒ•‡†‘‡’‹†‡‹‘Ž‘‰‹ ƒŽ‘†‡Ž•ƒ”‡ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ˆ‘”–Š‹•’—”’‘•‡ǡ ‘‡‘ˆ–Š‡‘•–’‘’—Žƒ”‘ˆ™Š‹ Š‹•–Š‡—• ‡’–‹„Ž‡

(31) ˆ‡ –‡†‡•‹•–ƒ–ȋ

(32) Ȍ‘†‡ŽͺǤ. ͺ. 

(33) Ǧͳͻ–”ƒ•‹••‹‘‹•‘•– ‘‘Ž›’”‡†‹ –‡†—•‹‰‘‡‘ˆ–Š‡•‹’Ž‡•–‡’‹†‡‹‘Ž‘‰‹ ƒŽ‘Ǧ †‡Ž• Ȃ –Š‡ ‡”ƒ Ǧ ‡†”‹  

(34)  ‘†‡ŽǤ Ǥ ƒ”–Ï‘‹‡Œ œ›ǡ Ǥ ƒ–ƒǡ Analizy epidemiologiczne w ärodowisku matlab/octaveǡ ‡•œ›–› ƒ—‘™‡ ›†œ‹ƒÏ— Ž‡–”‘–‡ Š‹‹ ‹ —–‘ƒ–›‹   ” ͸ͷǡ. †ƒÑ•ʹͲͳͻǡ’’ǤͳʹȂͳ͵Ǥ. ͵ͷ.

(35)  

(36) Ǧ 

(37) Ȁ 

(38) . 

(39) 

(40) Ȁ 

(41) .

(42)  . 

(43)    .  . n0+e0 ”ƒ•ˆ‡”. CROSS BORDER EXPANSION n0+e0+K n0 + e0+K+L. EPIDEMIC/PANDEMIC n0 + e0+K+L+P. POST-PANDEMIC RECOVERY. ›’Ǧ ‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– ‹‰Š–‹‰ ‹•ƒ’’‡ƒ”ƒ ‡Ƭ ‘–”‘Ž –‘• Ƭ•’”‡ƒ† Ƭ„Žƒ‹‰. —ƒ”†‹ƒ ƒ”‡– ”‘••Ǧ. —ƒ”†‹ƒ ƒ”‡–”‡‰—Žƒ–‘”ƒ†—Ž–‹ƒ–‡‹•—”ƒ ‡Ȁ —ƒ”†‹ƒ‘ˆ‘”†‡”ǡˆƒ ‹Ž‹–ƒ–‘”‘ˆ ‘ˆ‘”†‡” ”‡‰—Žƒ–‘” Ǧ„‘”†‡” ‘Ǧ ‘ˆ‘”†‡” ’ƒ›‡”‘ˆŽƒ•–”‡•‘”– Šƒ‰‡•ǡƒ”‡–”‡‰—Žƒ–‘” ‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘ ‹ˆ‡Ƭ ‡ƒŽ–ŠȀ‘–‹—‹–›‘ˆ‡ ‘‘‹ ƒ –‹˜‹–›ƒ†‡ˆˆ‡ –‹˜‡ˆ— –‹‘‹‰‘ˆ–Š‡•–ƒ–‡‹˜ƒ”‹‘—•ϐ‹‡Ž†• ǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦ ‹ƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ„—•‹‡••‡•Ȁ

(44)  ‘‡‘ˆ•Šƒ”‡Š‘Ž†‡”•ƒ†„‘†Š‘Ž†‡”•Ȁ

(45) –‡”‡•–‘ˆ ”‡†‹–‘”• ǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦ

(46) †‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•—„•‹•–‡ ‡ ǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦǦ ‘‹–‘”‹‰ ”‡‡œ‹‰ƒ† ‘‹–‘”‹‰ ”‡‡œ‹‰ ‡ˆ”‡‡œ‹‰ ƒ –‘‘”ƒŽ‹–› ƒ†”‡ˆ”ƒ‹‹‰ Ž‘ †‘™ ƒ†”‡ˆ”ƒ‹‹‰ ƒ†Ž‘ †‘™ ƒ†”‡Ž‡ƒ•‡ ”‡‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘ ‡†‹ ƒŽƒ† ‘”ƒ–‹˜‡Ž‹‹–• ‡†‹ ƒŽƒ†•‘ ‹ƒŽ ‘”ƒ–‹˜‡Ž‹‹–•‘” ‡Ž‡ –‹˜‡ƒ†Œ—•–Ǧ ‡‘˜‹‰‘”‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‰–Š‡‡ˆǦ •‘ ‹ƒŽ’”‡˜‡Ǧ ƒ†”‡•–”‹ –‹‘• ’”‡˜‡–‹‘Ǣ”‡•‘—” ‡ ƒŽŽ‡˜‹ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ†—–‹‡• ‡–‘ˆ’ƒ†‡‹  ˆ‡ –•‘ˆƒ’ƒ†‡‹ ǡ‹ Ž—†‹‰ –‹‘Ǣ”‡•‘—” ‡ ‘ˆ‡ ‘‘‹ ƒ –‹Ǧ •‡ —”‹–›Ƭ‘„‹Ž‹œƒǦ —†‡”‹•‘Ž˜‡ › ”‹‰‘—”•ƒ ‘”†‹‰ ‘‹‰‘—–‘ˆ–Š‡‡ ‘‘‹  •‡ —”‹–›Ƭ ˜‹–›ƒ†‘„‹Ž‹Ǧ –‹‘‘ˆƒ–‹Ǧ‡’‹†‡Ǧ Žƒ™ǡ‘”ƒ–‘”‹ƒ‘ –‘Š‡ƒŽ–Š‘ˆ–Š‡ ”‹•‹•ǡ‹–”‘†— ‹‰•›•–‡ ‘„‹Ž‹œƒ–‹‘ –›Ǣ•—•’‡•‹‘‘ˆ ‹‘Ž‘‰‹ ƒŽ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽǢ ‘–”ƒ –—ƒŽ‘„Ž‹‰ƒǦ ’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘‹ ”‡ˆ‘”• ‘†‹–‹‘‡†ƒ‘‰ ‘ˆƒ–‹Ǧ‡’‹Ǧ ‹•–‹–—–‹‘•ƒ† ‹•‘Žƒ–‹‘‘ˆ‘—–„”‡ƒ•ǡ –‹‘•ǡŽ‹‹–ƒ–‹‘‘ ”‡‰‹‘•ƒ†•–ƒ–‡•ǡ ‘–Š‡”•„›‹’Ž‡‡–‹‰ƒ† †‡‹‘Ž‘‰‹ ƒŽ •‘ ‹ƒŽ†‹•–ƒ ‹‰ǡ Ž‘•‹‰‹–‡”ƒŽƒ† –‡”‹ƒ–‹‘‘ˆŽ‡ƒ•‡•ǡ –Š‡‡ˆˆ‡ –‹˜‡‡•• •’”‡ƒ†‘ˆ‡†‹ ƒŽ–‡ Š‘Ž‘‰› ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ —”ˆ‡™• •–ƒ–‡„‘”†‡”• ‘–Š‡””‡•–”‹ –‹‘•‘ˆ ‘ˆ‡†‹ ƒŽ ƒ”‡ –Šƒ–’”‘–‡ –•ƒ‰ƒ‹•–‹ˆ‡ –‹‘• ‡ ‘‘‹ ƒ –‹˜‹–›ƒ† ƒ†Š‡ƒŽ–Š•‡”˜‹ ‡ ƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•‰ƒ–Š‡”‹‰ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽǡ ‘„‹Ž‹–›Ǣ•—•’‡•‹‘ ‹ˆ”ƒ•–”— –—”‡ Š—ƒƒ†ƒ–‡”‹ƒŽ”‡•‘—” ‡• ‘ˆ‹•–‹–—–‹‘•ǡ•‘ ‹ƒŽ ‘–Š‡””‡ˆ”‡‡œ‹‰ —†‡”’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ ‘•‡•—• †‹•–ƒ ‹‰Ǣ•–ƒ–‡‘ˆ ƒ†—Ž‘ †‘™ ‡‡”‰‡ ›. ›’–‘•. ‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–. 

(47)  

(48) . n0. OUTBREAK COUNTRY. SPECIFICATION. Table 1. Periodisation and systematisation of prevention, anti-pandemic and post-pandemic actions or interventions in the process of stabilizing the socio-economic system. ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•. ͵͸.

(49) ‘ ‹ƒŽ —”‡•– ƒ† ’”‡Ǧ ”‹•‹• „‡ŠƒǦ ˜‹‘—”‘ˆ ‘Ǧ •—‡”•ǡ ‡’Ž‘›Ǧ ‡‡•ƒ† ‡Ǧ ’Ž‘›‡”• ƒ ‘”†Ǧ ‹‰–‘ •’‡ ‹ϐ‹  ‘†‹Ǧ –‹‘•. ‡Ž‹„‡”ƒ–‡•‡‰‡–ƒǦ –‹‘‘ˆ„—•‹‡••‡•ƒ† ‹•–‹–—–‹‘•‘’‡”ƒ–‹‰ ‹‡’‹†‡‹ ‘‘†ǡ ‹ Ž—†‹‰”‡‘–‡ ™‘”ƒ†•—•’‡†‡† ȋ Ž‘•‡†ȌǢ —„•–‹–—–‹‰–Š‡ƒ”Ǧ ‡––Š”‘—‰Šǣ„ƒ‹Ž‘—–•ǡ •—„•‹†‹‡•ǡŽ‘ƒ•ǡ‰—Ǧ ƒ”ƒ–‡‡•ǡ†‹”‡ – ƒ•Š Šƒ†‘—–•Ǣ  ‘‘‹ •‡‰”‡‰ƒ–‹‘ „›’”‘ϐ‹–ƒ†Ž‘••ǡ‹Ǧ Ž—†‹‰„ƒ”—’– ‹‡• ƒ—•‡†„›•Š”‹‹‰ †‡ƒ†‘”’ƒ›‡– ‰”‹†Ž‘ •Ǣ‹’Ž‡‡Ǧ –‹‰‡™ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ ’”‘†— –•. ƒ Š‹‰–Š‡‘”Ǧ ƒ–‹˜‡‡ˆˆ‡ –•‘ˆ ”‡•–”‹ –‹‘•ǡ‘ —Ǧ ’ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ†‡ ‘Ǧ ‘‹ ƒ –‹˜‹–›„› ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽƒ†ϐ‹• ƒŽ Š‡Ž’’ƒ ƒ‰‡•ƒ• ™‡ŽŽƒ•’—„Ž‹ ƒ† ’”‹˜ƒ–‡•–‹—Žƒ–‘Ǧ ”›ϐ‹ƒ ‹‰ƒ‹‡† ƒ–‡—–”ƒŽ‹œ‹‰ ƒ”‡–•Š‘ •ǡ „‘–Šˆ‘”‹–‡”ƒŽ ƒ†‡š–‡”ƒŽȋˆ‘”‡Ǧ ‹‰Ȍ†‡ƒ†Ǥ. EPIDEMIC/PANDEMIC –”— –—”ƒŽƒ†‘™‡”•Š‹’ Šƒ‰‡•†—‡–‘ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ •–”‡‰–Š•‘ˆ‘™‡”•ƒ† ‹˜‡•–‘”•Ǣ‹ ”‡ƒ•‹‰”‘Ž‡‘ˆ †‹‰‹–‹œƒ–‹‘ǡ ‘’—–‡”‹œƒ–‹‘ǡ

(50) –‡”‡–ǡƒ†‘†‹ϐ‹‡†•–ƒ–—• ‘ˆ‹†‹”‡ –’”‘†— –‹‘™‘”Ǧ ‡”•ǡ™‹–Š•’‡ ‹ƒŽƒ––‡–‹‘ –‘”‡‘–‡ ‘—‹ ƒ–‹‘ǡ •–ƒ–‡„—†‰‡–”‡‡†‹ƒ–‹‘ƒ† ‹ ”‡ƒ•‹‰”‘Ž‡‘ˆ–Š‡’—„Ž‹  ƒ†•–ƒ–‡‡–‹–‹‡•‹•‘ ‹ƒŽ •‡ —”‹–›•‡”˜‹ ‡•Ǣ‘†‹ϐ‹ ƒǦ –‹‘‘ˆ ‘•—’–‹‘’ƒ––‡”•ǡ ‹ Ž—†‹‰Š‘—•‹‰. POST-PANDEMIC RECOVERY. ‘—” ‡ǣ‘™•–—†›Ǥ. š’Žƒƒ–‹‘•ǣ ͲȂ ‘—–”›‘—–„”‡ƒ’‡”‹‘†ȋˆ‘”

(51) Ǧͳͻ‘˜‡„‡”ʹͲͳͻȌǢ ‡ͲȂ‡’‹†‡‹ ’‡”‹‘†‹–Š‡‘—–„”‡ƒ ‘—–”›ȋ‹™‡‡•ǡ‘–Š•ǡ“—ƒ”–‡”•‘”›‡ƒ”•†—‡–‘•’‡ ‹ϐ‹  Šƒ”ƒ –‡”ȋˆǤ‡Ǥ

(52) ǦͳͻǣͳȂ͵‘–Š•ȌǢ Ȃ•’”‡ƒ†’‡”‹‘†–‘‘–Š‡” ‘—–”‹‡•ǡ”‡‰‹‘•‘” ‘–‹‡–•ǡ ‘—–‡†ƒ•ˆ‘”‡Ͳǡ™Š‡”‡εͲȋˆǤ‡Ǥ

(53) Ǧͳͻǣεʹ‘–Š•ȌǢ Ȃ’ƒ†‡‹ ’‡”‹‘†‹ ‘—–”‹‡•ǡ”‡‰‹‘•‘” ‘–‹‡–•ƒˆ–‡”’‡”‹‘†ǡ™Š‡”‡εͲȋˆǤ‡Ǥ

(54) Ǧͳͻǣ͵Ȃ͸‘–Š•ȌǢ Ȃ’‡”‹‘†ƒˆ–‡”ΪȋˆǤ‡Ǥ

(55) Ǧͳͻǣˆ‘”‡ ƒ•–εͳʹ‘–Š•ȌǤ. CROSS BORDER SPECIFICATION OUTBREAK COUNTRY EXPANSION ‘ ‹ƒŽ—”‡•– ‡‰”‡‰ƒ–‹‘ ”‘••„‘”Ǧ ƒ†’”‡Ǧ ”‹•‹• ‘ˆ„—•‹‡••‡• †‡”ƒ†‹Ǧ „‡Šƒ˜‹‘—”‘ˆ ‘’‡”ƒ–‹‰‹ –‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‘•—‡”•ǡ ‡’‹†‡‹ ‘‘†ǡ ‡š Šƒ‰‡ ‡’Ž‘›‡‡• ‹ Ž—†‹‰”‡‘–‡ ‘ˆ‡’‹†‡‹  ƒ†‡’Ž‘›Ǧ ‘’‡”ƒ–‹‰‘†‡ ‹ˆ‘”ƒǦ ‡”•ƒ ‘”†‹‰ ƒ†–‡’‘”ƒ”‹Ž› –‹‘ǡ ‘‘”Ǧ –‘•’‡ ‹ϐ‹  •—•’‡†‡†‹ †‹ƒ–‹‘ ‹” —•–ƒ ‡• ‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† ‘‘’‡Ǧ ‘” Ž‘•‡†Ǥ ”ƒ–‹‘‹  ƒ –‹‘•. Table 1 – continued. ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•. ͵͹.

(56) ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•. ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ. Š‡

(57) ‘†‡ŽŠƒ•„‡‡—•‡†‹•‡˜‡”ƒŽ ‘—–”‹‡•–‘•‹—Žƒ–‡–Š‡†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–‘ˆ 

(58) ǦͳͻͻǤŠ”‡‡†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–‘’–‹‘•ˆ‘”–Š‡

(59) Ǧͳͻ’ƒ†‡‹ ǡ†‡’‡†‹‰‘ –Š‡‡ƒ•‘ˆ‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘—•‡†ǡƒ”‡‹ŽŽ—•–”ƒ–‡†‹ ‹‰—”‡ͳǤ Figure 1. Simulated transmission model of COVID-19. Cases being reported. Timing and width of peak uncertain due to: • Stochasticity in early dynamics • Heterogeneities in contact patterns • Spatial variation • Uncertainty in key epidemiological parameters. Social distancing flattens curve Risk of resurgence following lifting of interventions. Epidemic growth, doubling time 4–7 days 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Months since transmission established. ‘—” ‡ǣ ǤǤ †‡”•‘ǡ Ǥ ‡‡•–‡”„‡‡ǡ Ǥ Ž‹‡„‡”‰ǡ Ǥ ‡‹”†”‡ ‘ŽŽ‹‰•™‘”–Šǡ How will country-based mitigation measures inϔluence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?ǡŠ‡ƒ ‡–ǡƒ” ŠʹͲʹͲǡ˜‘ŽǤ͵ͻͷǡ ’’Ǥ ͻ͵ͳȂͻ͵ͷǡ Š––’•ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ–Š‡Žƒ ‡–Ǥ ‘Ȁƒ –‹‘Ȁ•Š‘™†ˆǫ’‹‹αͲͳͶͲǦ͸͹͵͸ΨʹͺʹͲΨʹͻ͵Ͳͷ͸͹Ǧͷ ȏƒ ‡•• ʹͲǤͲͶǤʹͲʹͲȐǤ. Š‡ ”‡† Ž‹‡ ‹ ‹‰—”‡ ͳ ‹ŽŽ—•–”ƒ–‡• –Š‡ ‘—”•‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ’ƒ†‡‹  ™‹–Š “—ƒ”ƒ–‹‡ ƒ•–Š‡‘Ž›‡ƒ•—”‡‘ˆ ‘–”‘ŽǤ

(60) –Š‹•• ‡ƒ”‹‘ǡ–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ’ƒ–‹‡–•‹ ”‡ƒ•‡• ”ƒ’‹†Ž› ‹ ƒ •Š‘”– ’‡”‹‘† ‘ˆ –‹‡ǡ ™Š‹ Š Ž‡ƒ†• –‘ ƒ •Ž‹‡” †‹•‡ƒ•‡ —”˜‡ ƒ† ƒ•Š‘”–‡”†—”ƒ–‹‘’ƒ†‡‹ ǤŠ‡‰”‡‡Ž‹‡”‡ϐŽ‡ –•–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ‹ˆ‡ –‹‘•™‹–Š ˜ƒ”‹‘—•’”‡˜‡–‹‘ƒ†‹Ž††‹•–ƒ ‹‰‡ƒ•—”‡•‹’Žƒ ‡–Š”‘—‰Š‘—––Š‡‡’‹†‡‹  ȋ“—ƒ”ƒ–‹‡ǡ ”‡•–”‹ –‹‘ ‘ˆ ’‡”•‘ƒŽ ‘„‹Ž‹–› ƒ† —•‡ ‘ˆ ’—„Ž‹  –”ƒ•’‘”–ǡ Ž‘•—”‡ ‘ˆ ‡†— ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‹•–‹–—–‹‘• ƒ† ‡”–ƒ‹ ‡–‡”’”‹•‡•ǡ „ƒ ‘ ƒ•• ‡˜‡–•ȌǤ

(61)  –Š‹• ’”‡˜‡–‹‘ • ‡ƒ”‹‘ǡ –Š‡ ‘—”•‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡’‹†‡‹  ‹• †‹ˆˆ‡”‡–ǣ –Š‡ ‰”‘™–Š ‹ –Š‡ —„‡”‘ˆ’ƒ–‹‡–•‹••Ž‘™‡”ǡ–Š‡”‡ƒ”‡ˆ‡™‡”’ƒ–‹‡–•ƒ––Š‡’‡ƒ‘ˆ–Š‡†‹•‡ƒ•‡ǡ„—– –Š‡†—”ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡‡’‹†‡‹ ‹•‘–‹ ‡ƒ„Ž›Ž‘‰‡”ǤŠ‡„Ž—‡Ž‹‡ƒ••—‡•˜‡”›•–”‹ – ͻ. Ǥ–‡•‘ǡWhat Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenariosǡ‘”‹‰ƒ’‡”‘Ǥʹ͸ͺ͸͹ǡƒ” ŠʹͲʹͲǡŠ––’•ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ„‡”Ǥ‘”‰Ȁ’ƒ’‡”•Ȁ™ʹ͸ͺ͸͹ȋƒ ‡•• ͳ͸ǤͲͶǤʹͲʹͲȌǢǤǤ‡ƒ•–”‘ǡSIR Model for COVID-19 calibrated with existing data and projected for ColombiaǡʹͶǤͲ͵ǤʹͲʹͲŠ––’•ǣȀȀƒ”š‹˜Ǥ‘”‰Ȁ’†ˆȀʹͲͲ͵Ǥͳͳʹ͵ͲǤ’†ˆȋƒ ‡••ͳ͸ǤͲͶǤʹͲʹͲȌǢǤƒ–‹•–ƒǡEstimation of the ϔinal size of the coronavirus epidemic by the SIR modelǡ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆŒ—„ŽŒƒƒǡŽ‘˜‡‹ƒǡ ‡„”—ƒ”› ʹͲʹͲǡ Š––’•ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ”‡•‡ƒ” Š‰ƒ–‡Ǥ‡–Ȁ’—„Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘Ȁ͵͵ͻ͵ͳͳ͵ͺ͵̴•–‹ƒ–‹‘̴‘ˆ̴–Š‡̴ϐ‹ƒŽ̴ •‹œ‡̴‘ˆ̴–Š‡̴ ‘”‘ƒ˜‹”—•̴‡’‹†‡‹ ̴„›̴–Š‡̴

(62) ̴‘†‡Ž ȋƒ ‡•• ͲͷǤͲͷǤʹͲʹͲȌǢ ‹ǦŠ‡‰ Š‡ǡ ‹‰Ǧ —ǡŠ‡‰ǦŠƒ‰Šƒ‰ǡœ—Ǧ •—ƒ‹—ǡA Time-dependent SIR model for COVID-19 with Undetectable Infected Personsǡ Š––’ǣȀȀ‰‹„„•ͳǤ‡‡Ǥ–Š—Ǥ‡†—Ǥ–™Ȁ̴

(63) ̴̴

(64) ̴̴ ̴

(65) ̴ͳͻǤ  ȋƒ ‡••ͳ͵ǤͲͷǤʹͲʹͲȌǤ. ͵ͺ.

(66) ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ. ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•. ’”‘’Š›Žƒš‹•ƒ†•‘ ‹ƒŽ†‹•–ƒ ‹‰ˆ‘”ƒ ‡”–ƒ‹’‡”‹‘†‘ˆ–‹‡ǡˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‡†„›ƒ”ƒ’‹† ƒŽŽ‡˜‹ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡”‡•–”‹ –‹‘•Ž‡ƒ†‹‰–‘ƒ”‡˜‹˜ƒŽ‘ˆ–Š‡‡’‹†‡‹ ƒ†ƒ•‹‰‹ϐ‹ ƒ– ‡š–‡•‹‘‘ˆ‹–•†—”ƒ–‹‘Ǥ Š‡ •›–Š‡–‹ ƒŽŽ› Šƒ”ƒ –‡”‹•‡† • ‡ƒ”‹‘• ’”‡•‡– ƒ ”ƒ‰‡ ‘ˆ ‘’–‹‘• ˆ‘” ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ •–”ƒ–‡‰‹‡• ƒ‹‡† ƒ– ‘„ƒ–‹‰ ‡’‹†‡‹ •Ǥ Š‡ •‡Ž‡ –‹‰ –Š‡ ”‹‰Š– •–”ƒ–‡‰›ǡ ‹– ‹• Š‘™‡˜‡”‡••‡–‹ƒŽ–‘‘’–‹‹•‡Š—ƒƒ†’—„Ž‹ Š‡ƒŽ–ŠŽ‘••‡•ǡƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•–Š‡•‘ ‹‘Ǧ ‡ ‘‘‹  ‘•–•Ǥ

(67)  ƒ††‹–‹‘ǡ –Š‡ •‡Ž‡ –‹‘ ‘ˆ ƒ ‘””‡ –‹˜‡ ‡ƒ•—”‡• ’ƒ ƒ‰‡ ™‹ŽŽ ‹‡˜‹–ƒ„Ž› „‡ ‹ϐŽ—‡ ‡† „› –Š‡ ‹ˆ”ƒ•–”— –—”‡ ƒ† –Š‡ Š‡ƒŽ–Š ƒ”‡ ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽǡ –Š‡ ‘†‹–‹‘‘ˆ•–ƒ–‡ϐ‹ƒ ‡•ƒ†ƒ ‡’–ƒ„Ž‡Ž‡˜‡Ž‘ˆ’—„Ž‹ †‡„–ǡƒ†ǡŽƒ•–„—–‘–Ž‡ƒ•–ǡ –Š‡’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ•‹–—ƒ–‹‘‹–Š‡ ‘—–”›ǤŠ‡Žƒ––‡”’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”Ž› ‘ ‡”•–Š‡ƒ—–Š‘”‹–› ‘”’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ’‘™‡”‘ˆ–Š‡’‘Ž‹ ›Ǧƒ‡”•Ǥ› Šƒ‰‡‘ˆ–Š‡‡’‹†‡‹ ƒƒ‰‡‡– ƒ’’”‘ƒ Šƒ†‡†—”‹‰–Š‡‡’‹†‡‹ ǡ‡•’‡ ‹ƒŽŽ›ˆ‘”‘Ǧ‡†‹ ƒŽ”‡ƒ•‘•ǡ‰‹˜‡•”‹•‡ –‘ƒ††‹–‹‘ƒŽ ‘’Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ Š‡ Š‘•‡ ’ƒ†‡‹  †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– • ‡ƒ”‹‘ Š‡Ž’• ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡Ž› •‡Ž‡ – ƒ† ‹’Ž‡‡–•‘Ž—–‹‘•–‘’”‡˜‡–‘”‹–‹‰ƒ–‡–Š‡Š‡ƒŽ–Šƒ†•‘ ‹‘Ǧ‡ ‘‘‹ ‹’ƒ –•Ǥ ‹•–‘”‹ ƒŽ ‡š’‡”‹‡ ‡ •Š‘™• –Šƒ– –Š‡ •‘ ‹‘Ǧ‡ ‘‘‹  ‹’ƒ – ‘ˆ ƒ ’ƒ†‡‹  ˜ƒ”‹‡•ǡ †‡’‡†‹‰ ‘ –Š‡ ‘—”•‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ’ƒ†‡‹ ǡ ‹ Ž—†‹‰ –Š‡ •’‡‡† ‘ˆ –Š”‡ƒ– ‹†‡–‹ϐ‹ ƒ–‹‘ǡ –Š‡ ™ƒ›• ƒ† ‡š–‡– ‘ˆ ’”‡˜‡–‹‘ǡ –Š‡ –›’‡ ‘ˆ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ƒ –‹‘• –ƒ‡ǡ ‘•‹†‡”‹‰–Š‡ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡”‡•‘—” ‡•ǡ‹ Ž—†‹‰‹’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”–Š‡ ‘’‡–‡ ‡ ‘ˆ•–ƒˆˆƒ†–Š‡ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ”‡•‘—” ‡•–Šƒ– ƒ„‡‘„‹Ž‹•‡†Ǥ ‡•’‹–‡ –Š‡ ‘–”‘˜‡”•› ƒ„‘—– –Š‡ ‘—‹ ƒ„‹Ž‹–› ƒ† ‡ˆˆ‡ –• ‘ˆ ʹͲͳͻǦ‘ ‹ –‡”• ‘ˆ Š‡ƒŽ–Š ƒ† Ž‹ˆ‡ͳͲǡ –Š‡ ’”‡˜ƒ‹Ž‹‰ ˜‹‡™ ‹• –Šƒ– –Š‡ • ƒŽ‡ ‘ˆ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ †‡•–ƒ„‹Ž‹•ƒ–‹‘ ƒ—•‡† „› 

(68) Ǧͳͻ ‡š ‡‡†• –Š‡ ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ ˆ‘” •‡ŽˆǦ”‡„ƒŽƒ ‹‰ ™‹–Š‘—–•‡”‹‘—• ‘•‡“—‡ ‡•ˆ‘”–Š‡‡ ‘‘›ǡ’‡‘’Ž‡ǯ•Ž‹˜‡•ƒ†–Š‡™‡ŽŽǦ„‡‹‰ ‘ˆ •‘ ‹‡–›Ǥ Š‡•‡ ‘•‡“—‡ ‡• ƒ „‡ •‡‡ ‹ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡– •‡ –‘”•ǡ ‹†—•–”‹‡• ‘” „—•‹‡••‡• ƒ• ™‡ŽŽ ƒ• •’‡ ‹ϐ‹  ’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘ ‰”‘—’• ‘” Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•Ǥ Š‹• ‹• ™Š› –Š‡ •–ƒ–‡ƒ†‹–•ƒ‰‡ ‹‡••Š‘—Ž†‹–‡”˜‡‡‹ƒ•–”— –—”‡†ƒ‡”–‘ —•Š‹‘‘”Ž‹‹– –Š‡‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡ ‘•‡“—‡ ‡•‘ˆ–Š‡’ƒ†‡‹ ͳͳǤ •ƒ„Ž‡ͳ•Š‘™•ǡ–Š‡•–ƒ–‡ǯ•ƒ –‹‘•‹–Š‡Ž‡‰‹•Žƒ–‹˜‡•’Š‡”‡ƒ†–Š‡‡ˆϐ‹ ‹‡ ›‘ˆ –Š‡‰‘˜‡”‡–ƒ†‹–•ƒ‰‡ ‹‡•‹‹’Ž‡‡–‹‰’”‘‰”ƒ‡•–‘”‡†— ‡–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡ –• ‘ˆ–Š‡‡’‹†‡‹ ’Žƒ›ƒ‡›”‘Ž‡Š‡”‡Ǥ. ͳͲ. ‡‡‹‹–‹ƒŽ†‡ Žƒ”ƒ–‹‘•‘ˆ†‹•”‡‰ƒ”†ˆ‘”

(69) Ǧͳͻ„›‡›’‘Ž‹ ›Ǧƒ‡”•ȋ‡Žƒ”—•ǡ”ƒœ‹Žǡǡ ”‡ƒ– ”‹–ƒ‹ȌǤ

(70) ƒ„”‘ƒ†‡”•‡•‡ǡ–Š‹•”‡Žƒ–‡•–‘•—’’‘”–‡”•‘ˆ–Š‡ ‘ ‡’–‘ˆƒ–—”ƒŽ•‡Ž‡ –‹‘‘ˆ™‡ƒ‡” ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•ǡ™Š‹ Š ƒ„‡‡Ž‹‹ƒ–‡†ˆ”‘–Š‡’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘„›ʹͲͳͻǦ‘Ǥ‘‡ˆ‘”‘ˆ•—’’‘”–ˆ‘” –Š‹•ƒ’’”‘ƒ Š™ƒ•‘„•‡”˜‡†‹–Š‡ƒ–—”ƒŽ‡š’‡”‹‡–‘–Š‡‹’ƒ –‘ˆ–Š‡ʹͲͳͻǦ‘˜‹”—•‘–Š‡ ’ƒ••‡‰‡”•‘„‘ƒ”†–Š‡‹ƒ‘†”‹ ‡•• ”—‹•‡•Š‹’ǡ™Š‡”‡ƒ„‘—–ʹͲΨ‘ˆ–Š‡͵ǡ͹ͳͳ’ƒ••‡‰‡”• ƒ† ”‡™‡„‡”•™‡”‡‹ˆ‡ –‡†ǡͳͲΨ„‡ ƒ‡‹ŽŽƒ†ͲǤͳ͸Ψ‘ˆ–Š‡’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘†‹‡†Ǥ ͳͳ Ǥ‡ŠƒǡMothballing the economy and the effects on banksǡȏ‹ǣȐPandemic Crisis and Financial Stabilityǡ ǤǤ ‘”–•‘• Ƭ ǤǦ Ǥ ‹‰‡ ȋ‡†•ǤȌǡ —”‘’‡ƒ ƒ‹‰

(71) •–‹–—–‡ ʹͲʹͲǡ Š––’•ǣȀȀ’ƒ’‡”•Ǥ••”Ǥ ‘Ȁ•‘Ž͵Ȁ’ƒ’‡”•Ǥ ˆǫƒ„•–”ƒ –̴‹†α͵͸Ͳ͹ͻ͵Ͳȋƒ ‡••ʹʹǤͲͷǤʹͲʹͲȌǤ. ͵ͻ.

(72) ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ. ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•. 2. Channels of inϐluence of COVID-19 on the banking sector

(73) –Š‡•‡ —Žƒ”–”‡†ǡ•‘ ‹ƒŽƒ†‡ ‘‘‹ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–‹•ƒ ‘’ƒ‹‡†„›ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ †‡‡’‡‹‰ ‘” –Š‡ ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ‹•ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡ ‘‘›ͳʹǤ Š‹• ‹• ™Š› –Š‡ ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ •‡ –‘”ǡ‡•’‡ ‹ƒŽŽ›–Š‡„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘”ǡ’Žƒ›•ƒ‹ ”‡ƒ•‹‰Ž›‹’‘”–ƒ–•›•–‡‹ ”‘Ž‡ ȋ‘„‹Ž‹•ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ •ƒ˜‹‰•ǡ –”ƒ•ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ –‡” ƒ† ”‹• ‹ Ž‡†‹‰ ’”‘ ‡••‡•ǡ ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ •‡––Ž‡‡–•ǡ ƒ’‹–ƒŽ ‹˜‡•–‡–•ǡ ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ ‹˜‡•–‡– ”‹• Š‡†‰‹‰ȌǤ ‡ ‡ǡ–Š‡•–ƒ„‹Ž‹•ƒ–‹‘ƒ†‡ˆϐ‹ ‹‡ ›‘ˆ–Š‡ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ•›•–‡ǡ‡•’‡ ‹ƒŽŽ›‘ˆ„ƒ•ǡ „‡ ‘‡•‘ˆ ƒ”†‹ƒŽ‹’‘”–ƒ ‡‹ ”‹•‹••‹–—ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –Š‡ ϐ‹”•– ‡š’‡”‹‡ ‡• ˆ”‘ –Š‡ 

(74) Ǧͳͻ ”‹•‹• ™‡”‡ —’”‡ ‡†‡–‡†ǡ ƒ‹Ž›†—‡–‘–Š‡‡š–‡–ƒ†•’‡‡†‘ˆ–Š‡•’”‡ƒ†‘ˆ–Š‡˜‹”—•‹ƒ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ‹•‡†™‘”Ž† ƒ† –Š‡ •‹œ‡ ƒ† ‹–‡•‹–› ‘ˆ Š—ƒ ‘„‹Ž‹–› „‡ˆ‘”‡ ‹–• ‘—–„”‡ƒ ȋ ‘’ƒ”‡† –‘ ‘–Š‡” Ǯ‰”‡ƒ–ǯ ’ƒ†‡‹ •ȌǤ Ž–Š‘—‰Š –Š‡ ‹” —•–ƒ ‡• •—””‘—†‹‰ –Š‡ 

(75) Ǧͳͻ ’ƒ†‡‹ †‘‘–ǡ‹–Š‡•Š‘”––‡”ǡ†‹”‡ –Ž›ƒˆˆ‡ –„ƒ‹‰ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•ƒ•‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡Ž›ƒ• ‘–Š‡”‹†—•–”‹‡•ȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥƒ—ˆƒ –—”‹‰ǡ ‘‡” ‡ǡ–”ƒ•’‘”–ǡ–‘—”‹•ƒ†”‡ ”‡ƒ–‹‘ ‘” —Ž–—”‡Ȍǡ‘”ƒ•’‘•‹–‹˜‡Ž›ȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ

(76) ǡ‹–‡”‡– ‘‡” ‡ǡ–‡Ž‡ ‘—‹ ƒ–‹‘•Ȍǡ–Š‡ ”‹•‘ˆ‹–•ƒ†˜‡”•‡ ‘•‡“—‡ ‡•”‡ƒ‹•”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž›Š‹‰Š‹–Š‡Ž‘‰–‡”Ǥ Š‡†‹”‡ –‹’ƒ –‘ˆ

(77) Ǧͳͻ‘–Š‡ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•‘ˆ„ƒ•‹•”‡Žƒ–‡†ǡ‹’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”ǡ–‘ –Š‡ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ•–ƒˆˆͳ͵ǡƒ††‹–‹‘ƒŽ‡š’‡†‹–—”‡‘‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘•ƒ†•ƒ˜‹‰•‘–Š‡•‡ ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•ȋ•‡‡ƒ„Ž‡ʹȌǤ Š‡†‹”‡ –‹’ƒ –‘ˆ

(78) Ǧͳͻ‘–Š‡ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•‘ˆ„ƒ•‹••Š‘”–Ǧ–‡”‹ƒ–—”‡ƒ† ‹•™‡ƒ‡•ƒ•–Š‡’ƒ†‡‹ ‡ƒ•‡•ǤŠ‡ ‘•‡“—‡ ‡•ƒ›„‡‡†‹—ƒ†Ž‘‰–‡”ǡ „‘–Šˆ‘”‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ„ƒ•ƒ†ˆ‘”–Š‡•–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ–Š‡„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘”Ǥ

(79) –‹•™‘”–Š‘–‹‰ –Š‡ Šƒ‰‡†”‹•‘ˆ”‡’ƒ›‡–‘ˆŽ‘ƒ•‰”ƒ–‡†„‡ˆ‘”‡–Š‡’ƒ†‡‹ ǡ–Š‡•’‡ ‹ϐ‹  ’‘”–ˆ‘Ž‹‘ ”‹• ‰‡‡”ƒ–‡† †—”‹‰ –Š‡ ’ƒ†‡‹ ǡ ƒ† –Š‡ ”‡•–”‹ –‹‘• ‘ „—•‹‡•• ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•ǤŠ‡•’‡ ‹ƒŽŽƒ™•ƒ†”‡‰—Žƒ–‹‘•ƒ†‘’–‡†—†‡”’”‡••—”‡‘ˆƒ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ ”‹•‹• ‘” ƒ–ƒ•–”‘’Š‹  ’”‘Œ‡ –‹‘• ƒ”‡ ’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”Ž› ‹’‘”–ƒ– Š‡”‡Ǥ ‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡ ‹– ‹• ‹’‘”–ƒ– –‘ •–”‡•• –Š‡ ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ ’”‡••—”‡ ‘” ’”‘’”‹‡–ƒ”› ƒ’ƒ ‹–› ‘ˆ –Š‡ •–ƒ–‡ –‘ ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽŽ›•—’’‘”–‡ ‘‘‹ ƒ –‹˜‹–›Ǥ

(80) ‰‡‡”ƒŽǡ’ƒ”Ž‹ƒ‡–•ǡ‰‘˜‡”‡–•ǡ ‡–”ƒŽ „ƒ• ‘” •—’‡”˜‹•‘”• ™‹–Š –”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽ ‘” ‹‘˜ƒ–‹˜‡ ‹•–”—‡–• ˆ‘” •–‹—Žƒ–‹‰ ˆ—†‹‰ƒ† —•Š‹‘‹‰–Š‡”‹•‘ˆ„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘”†‡•–ƒ„‹Ž‹•ƒ–‹‘Šƒ˜‡„‘–Šƒ†‹”‡ – ƒ†‹†‹”‡ –‹’ƒ –‘„ƒ‹‰ƒ –‹˜‹–›†—”‹‰ƒ’ƒ†‡‹ Ǥ ͳʹ. Ǥ‘›‡”ǡDo Globalization, Deregulation and Financialization Imply a Convergence of Contemporary Capitalisms?

(81)   ‡”‹‡•ǡ ‹• —••‹‘ ƒ’‡” ‡”‹‡• ʹͲͳͺ ͓ͲͻǢ Ǥ Ǥ ƒ˜‹•ǡ Ǥ ‹ǡ Financialization of Econom›ǡ—ƒŽ‡˜‹‡™‘ˆ‘ ‹‘Ž‘‰›ʹͲͳͺǡ‘ŽǤͶͳǢǤƒ–ƒŒ œƒǡPaÑstwo a ϔinansjalizacjaǤ ‡œ’‹‡ œ›ƒʹͲʹͲǡ‘ͳȋ͹ͺȌǡ’’ǤͻȂʹͲǤ ͳ͵ —‰‰Ž‹‰ Š‹Ž† ƒ”‡ƒ†’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽ†—–‹‡•‹•“—‹–‡ƒ ŠƒŽŽ‡‰‡Ǥ‡ ƒ—•‡‘ˆ–Š‡ ‘”‘ƒ˜‹”—•ǡŠƒŽˆ‘ˆ–Š‡ ‘–Š‡”•ƒ”‡ˆ‘” ‡†–‘ ‘’‡™‹–Š–Š‡†—ƒŽ”‘Ž‡ǡƒ ‘”†‹‰–‘ƒ•–—†› ‘†— –‡†ˆ‘”–Š‡

(82) 

(83) ˆ‘‘‹–‘” ‡„–‘”‡‰‹•–‡”Ǥ‡‹–™‘‘–Š‡”•ƒ†‹––Šƒ–‹– ƒ—•‡•–Š‡•‡”‹‘—•†‹ˆϐ‹ —Ž–‹‡•ǡƒ†–Šƒ––ƒ‹‰ ƒ”‡‘ˆ Š‹Ž†”‡ƒ†ƒ’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽ ƒ”‡‡”ƒ––Š‡•ƒ‡–‹‡Ž‡ƒ†•–‘•–”‡••ƒ†ƒš‹‡–›ƒ„‘—––Š‡‹” ’‘•‹–‹‘‹–Š‡ ‘’ƒ›. –‹ŽŽǡ™‘”‹‰‘–Š‡”• Žƒ••‹ˆ› Ž‡ƒ‹‰ƒ†•Š‘’’‹‰ǡƒ†‘–’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽ †—–‹‡•ǡƒ•–Š‡‘•––‹”‹‰ Š‘”‡•Ǥ Prac¸ i opiek¸ nad dzieckiem Ϧczy poÏowa mam.Š––’•ǣȀȀ‡†‹ƒǤ„‹Ǥ ’ŽȀ‹ˆ‘”ƒ Œ‡Ǧ’”ƒ•‘™‡Ȁͷͳ͸ͲͷͷȀ’”ƒ ‡Ǧ‹Ǧ‘’‹‡‡Ǧƒ†Ǧ†œ‹‡ ‹ǦŽƒ œ›Ǧ™Ǧ’ƒ†‡‹‹Ǧ’‘Ž‘™ƒǦƒǦ‹‡Ǧ Œ‡•–ǦŽƒ–™‘ȋƒ ‡••ʹͷǤͲͷǤʹͲʹͲȌǤ. ͶͲ.

(84) ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•. ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ. Table 2. The short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on banking activities. Additional expenditure on banking activity. Limited employee availability. –Š‡”. ‘™‡”  ‘•–•. ‘” ‡†Ž‡ƒ˜‡. ‘™‡”ƒ–‡”‹ƒŽ ‘•–•. ‘™‡”‹••‹‘‡š’‡•‡•. ‘™‡”‡†‹ƒƒ†‹ˆ”ƒ•–”— –—”‡‘’‡”ƒ–‹‰ ‘•–•. ‡––‡”—•‡‘ˆ‡Ǧ„ƒ‹‰’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ. –Š‡”. ‹‰Š‡”

(85)  ‘•–• . ‡‘–‡™‘”‹‰‡“—‹’‡–ˆ‘”‡’Ž‘›‡‡•. ’‹†‡‹‘Ž‘‰‹ ƒŽ’”‡˜‡–‹‘ƒ†’”‘–‡ –‹‘‘ˆ‘’‡”ƒ–‘”•. –Š‡”„. Š‹Ž† ƒ”‡‡š‡’–‹‘•. —ƒ”ƒ–‹‡. ‹‰”ƒ–‹‘‘ˆˆ‘”‡‹‰ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ•. ‹• ƒ˜‡”•‹‘. „•‡ ‡. ‘ †‘™ƒ. Cost savings in banking activity. ƒȂ”‡•–”‹ –‹‰‘”ˆ”‡‡œ‹‰Ž‘ ƒŽǡ”‡‰‹‘ƒŽǡƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ†ˆ‘”‡‹‰Žƒ„‘—”‘„‹Ž‹–› „Ȃ‹ ”‡ƒ•‹‰–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ•‹ Ž‡ƒ˜‡†ƒ›•ˆ‘” ‘‡š‹•–‹‰†‹•‡ƒ•‡•‡– Ǥ  Ȃ ‹ Ž—†‹‰ •‡ —”‹‰ ‘—‹ ƒ–‹‘ ™‹–Š ‡’Ž‘›‡‡• ™‘”‹‰ ”‡‘–‡Ž› —•‹‰ ’—„Ž‹  ‘’—–‡” ‡Ǧ –™‘”•ƒ†–Š‡

(86) –‡”‡–ǡ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‰–Š‡‹ ”‡ƒ•‡†”‹•‘ˆŠƒ ‡”‘”ˆ”ƒ—†•–‡”ƒ––ƒ • ‘—” ‡ǣ‘™•–—†›Ǥ. ƒ›„ƒ•ƒ”‡“—‹–‡™‡ŽŽ’”‡’ƒ”‡†–‘†‡ƒŽ™‹–Š–Š‡ —””‡–•‹–—ƒ–‹‘†—‡–‘–Š‡ ‡š’‡”‹‡ ‡ ‘ˆ ’”‡˜‹‘—• ”‹•‡• ƒ† ”‡ˆ‘”• ‹–”‘†— ‡† ‘ –Šƒ– „ƒ•‹•ǡ ‹ Ž—†‹‰ ”‡•–”‹ –‹˜‡ ’”—†‡–‹ƒŽ ”‡‰—Žƒ–‹‘• ƒ† ƒ •—’‡”˜‹•‘”› ‹ˆ”ƒ•–”— –—”‡Ǥ ‘‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘ „‡–™‡‡”‡‰—Žƒ–‘”•ƒ†•—’‡”˜‹•‘”•ƒ†„ƒ•ƒ†ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ‹•–‹–—–‹‘•ƒŽŽ‘™•ˆ‘” “—‹  ”‡ƒ –‹‘•ǡ ‹ Ž—†‹‰ –Š‡ ’”‘˜‹•‹‘ ‘ˆ Ž‹“—‹†‹–› „› –Š‡ ‡–”ƒŽ „ƒ•Ǥ  –Š‡ ‘–Š‡” Šƒ†ǡ –Š‡ ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ •–ƒ†‹‰ ‘ˆ ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ „ƒ• ƒ– –Š‡ ’ƒ†‡‹  ‘—–„”‡ƒ •–ƒ‰‡ǡ –Š‡ •–”— –—”‡ ƒ† “—ƒŽ‹–› ‘ˆ ƒ••‡–•ǡ ƒ†ǡ ƒ„‘˜‡ ƒŽŽǡ –Š‡ ‡ ‘‘‹  •‹–—ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ —•–‘‡”•ǡ ™‹ŽŽ Šƒ˜‡ ƒ ‘•‹†‡”ƒ„Ž‡ ‹’ƒ – ‘ –Š‡ †‹˜‡”•‹ϐ‹ ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ’‘•–Ǧ ’ƒ†‡‹ •‹–—ƒ–‹‘•ǤŠ‹•’”‹ƒ”‹Ž› ‘ ‡”•‡›„‘””‘™‡”•ǡƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•–Š‡• ƒŽ‡ ‘ˆŽ‘••‡•‹ —””‡†„›‘–Š‡”†‡„–‘”•ǤŠ—•ǡ’”‘ ‡••‡•‘„‘–Š†‘‡•–‹ ƒ†ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽƒ”‡–•ͳͶ™‹ŽŽ„‡ ”— ‹ƒŽǤ‘ˆ—•‹‘‹–Š‡ˆ— –‹‘‹‰‘ˆ„—•‹‡••‡•ƒ† Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•™‹ŽŽ„‡’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”Ž›‹’‘”–ƒ–ǡ•’‡ ‹ϐ‹ ƒŽŽ›‹–Š‡ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ƒ•’‡ –•ǣ ͳͶ. ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽƒ”‡–•™‡”‡–Š‡ϐ‹”•––‘”‡ƒ ––‘‡†‹ƒ”‡’‘”–•‘

(87) ǦͳͻǤ‹ ”‡ƒ•‡‹–Š‡”‹•ƒ•Ǧ •‘ ‹ƒ–‡†™‹–Š–Š‡— ‡”–ƒ‹–›ƒ„‘—––Š‡‹ˆ‡ –‹˜‹–›ƒ†‘”–ƒŽ‹–›‘ˆ–Š‡‡™˜‹”—•ǡƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•–Š‡‡šǦ ’‡ –‡†‡ ‘‘‹ •Ž‘™†‘™ƒ†ˆƒŽŽ‹’”‘ϐ‹–•ǡŠƒ˜‡”‡•—Ž–‡†‹ƒ•Šƒ”’ˆƒŽŽ‹–Š‡’”‹ ‡•‘ˆ•‡ —”‹–‹‡•. Ͷͳ.

(88) ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ. ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•. Ȃ †‡–‡”‹‘”ƒ–‹‘‹–Š‡ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ•‹–—ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ ‘’ƒ‹‡•Ž‡ƒ†‹‰–‘„ƒ”—’– ›ǡ ƒ—Ǧ •‡†„›”‡†— ‡†—•‡‘ˆ’”‘†— –‹‘‘”•‡”˜‹ ‡ ƒ’ƒ ‹–›ǡƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•’”‹ ‡ Šƒ‰‡• ‹ ‘‘†‹–›ƒ”‡–•Ȃƒ•ƒ”‡•—Ž–‘ˆƒ†‹•”—’–‹‘–‘–Š‡•—’’Ž› Šƒ‹ǡƒ†‹‹Ǧ •–”ƒ–‹˜‡ Ž‘•—”‡•‘””‡•–”‹ –‹‘•‘ƒ –‹˜‹–›ǡ”‡•–”‹ –‹‘•ƒ††‡Žƒ›•‹†‡Ž‹˜‡”‹‡• ƒ††‘‡•–‹ ‘”ˆ‘”‡‹‰’ƒ›‡–•ǡ•‘ ‹ƒŽ†‹•–ƒ ‹‰ˆ‘” ‹‰™‘”‡”•–‘•–ƒ›ƒ– Š‘‡ͳͷǡ†”ƒƒ–‹ ˆƒŽŽ‹ ‘•—’–‹‘‘ˆ ‡”–ƒ‹‰‘‘†•ƒ†‡•’‡ ‹ƒŽŽ›•‡”˜‹ ‡• ȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ–‘—”‹•ƒ†”‡ ”‡ƒ–‹‘ǡ‰ƒ•–”‘‘›ǡ–”ƒ•’‘”–ȌǡˆƒŽŽ‹’”‹ ‡•‘ˆ”ƒ™ƒ–‡Ǧ ”‹ƒŽ•ȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ‘‹Žǡ ‘’’‡”ǡ‹”‘Ȍͳ͸ǡ Ȃ †‡–‡”‹‘”ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ•‹–—ƒ–‹‘‘ˆŠ‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•Ȃƒ•ƒ”‡•—Ž–‘ˆƒ”‡†— –‹‘ ‘”Ž‘••‘ˆ‹ ‘‡ˆ”‘™‘”ȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ”‡•—Ž–‹‰ˆ”‘”‡†— ‡†ƒ –‹˜‹–›ǡ–‡’‘”ƒ”› Ž‘Ǧ •—”‡‘”„ƒ”—’– ›‘ˆ–Š‡‡’Ž‘›‡”ǡ”‡†— ‡†™ƒ‰‡•Ȍǡ Ȃ Šƒ‰‡‹ ‘•—‡”ƒ†„—•‹‡••‘‘†•ƒ†‡š’‡ –ƒ–‹‘•Ž‡ƒ†‹‰–‘†‡Žƒ›‘” ‡••ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ‹˜‡•–‡–•ƒ† Šƒ‰‡•‹–Š‡•–”— –—”‡‘ˆ ‘•—‡”†‡ƒ† ƒ—Ǧ •‡††‹”‡ –Ž›‘”‹†‹”‡ –Ž›„›–Š‡’ƒ†‡‹ ‘” Šƒ‰‡‹ ‘•—‡”’”‡ˆ‡”‡ ‡•ǡ Ȃ †‡–‡”‹‘”ƒ–‹‘‹–Š‡•‡–‹‡–‘ˆϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ‹˜‡•–‘”•‹‰Ž‘„ƒŽƒ††‘‡•–‹ ϐ‹Ǧ ƒ ‹ƒŽ ƒ”‡–•ǡ ƒ †‡ ”‡ƒ•‡ ‹ ”‹• ƒ˜‡”•‹‘ ‘” ‡˜‡ ’ƒ‹ ǡ ‘—–ϐŽ‘™ ‘ˆ ƒ’‹–ƒŽ –‘Ž‡••”‹•›”‡‰‹‘•ǡ•—††‡ˆƒŽŽ‹•‡ —”‹–›’”‹ ‡•ǡ Šƒ‰‡•‹‡š Šƒ‰‡”ƒ–‡•ǡ ”‡†— –‹‘‹Ž‡†‹‰ƒ†Ȁ‘”‹ ”‡ƒ•‡‹Ž‡†‹‰ ‘•–•ȋ†‡„–ƒ”‡–ȌǤ

(89) –Š‡ƒ„•‡ ‡‘ˆ•’‡ –ƒ —Žƒ”„ƒˆƒ‹Ž—”‡•ǡ™‹–Š–Š‡‡ˆϐ‹ ‹‡ ›‘ˆ†‡’‘•‹–‰—ƒ”ƒ–‡‡ •›•–‡•‘””‡•‘Ž—–‹‘ƒ—–Š‘”‹–‹‡•ǡ–Š‡„ƒ”—”‹•‹•”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž›Ž‘™Ǥ‘‡–Š‡Ž‡••ǡ „ƒ•–Šƒ–ƒ”‡”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž›™‡ƒŽ› ƒ’‹–ƒŽ‹•‡†ǡ‡•’‡ ‹ƒŽŽ›–Š‘•‡„ƒ•‡†‘•Š‘”–Ǧ–‡” †‡’‘•‹–• ‹ ϐ‹ƒ ‹‰ Ž‘‰Ǧ–‡” Ž‘ƒ•ǡ ™‹ŽŽ ˆƒ ‡ ŠƒŽŽ‡‰‡• ‹ ƒ‹–ƒ‹‹‰ –Š‡‹” †‡’‘•‹–„ƒ•‡•Ǥ. 3. The general situation of the Polish banking sector and instruments for cushioning the effects of the pandemic

(90) –Š‡’‡”‹‘†‹‡†‹ƒ–‡Ž›’”‡ ‡†‹‰–Š‡

(91) Ǧͳͻ’ƒ†‡‹ ǡ–Š‡‘Ž‹•Š„ƒ‹‰ •‡ –‘”™ƒ•‹ƒ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž›‰‘‘† ‘†‹–‹‘ǡƒŽ–Š‘—‰Šƒ”‡–’”‘ ‡••‡•ƒ†–Š‡ƒ–—”‡ ‘ˆϐ‹• ƒŽƒ†”‡‰—Žƒ–‘”›„—”†‡•”‡•—Ž–‡†‹ƒ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž›Š‹‰Š†‹˜‡”•‹ϐ‹ ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡ „ƒ•ǯ•‹–—ƒ–‹‘•ǡ‡•’‡ ‹ƒŽŽ›‹–‡”•‘ˆ–Š‡’”‘ϐ‹–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘•ƒ†Ž‡‰ƒŽ”‹• ”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘–Š‡•‘Ǧ ƒŽŽ‡†ˆ”ƒ Š‹•‡Ž‘ƒ•ͳ͹Ǥ ȋ„‡–™‡‡ͳͻ ‡„”—ƒ”›ƒ†ʹ͵ƒ” Š–Š‡ƬͷͲͲ‹†‡šŽ‘•–‘”‡–Šƒƒ–Š‹”†‘ˆ‹–•˜ƒŽ—‡ƒ†–Š‡ ‘™ ‘‡•

(92) †—•–”‹ƒŽ˜‡”ƒ‰‡™‡–†‘™„›͵͸ΨȌǤƒ’‹–ƒŽŠƒ•„‡‡‘˜‡†–‘™ƒ”†••ƒˆ‡”ƒ••‡–•ƒ• ™‡ŽŽƒ•”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž›•ƒˆ‡’Žƒ ‡•Ȁ ‘—–”‹‡•Ȁ”‡‰‹‘•Ǥ ͳͷ Š‡–”ƒ˜‡Ž„ƒŠƒ• ƒ—•‡†’”‘„Ž‡•‹–Š‡–‘—”‹•ƒ†–”ƒ•’‘”–‹†—•–”›ǡ”‡•–ƒ—”ƒ–•ƒ†•Š‘’• ™‡”‡ Ž‘•‡†ǡƒ†ƒ› ‘’ƒ‹‡•†‡ ‹†‡†–‘Ž‘™‡”™ƒ‰‡•‘”†‹•‹••‡’Ž‘›‡‡•Ǥ‡†‹‰–‘–Š‡‘•– ˜—Ž‡”ƒ„Ž‡‹†—•–”‹‡•Šƒ•„‡ ‘‡˜‡”›”‹•›Ǥ ͳ͸ Š‡

(93)  ǯ•”ƒ™ƒ–‡”‹ƒŽ’”‹ ‡‹†‡šŠƒ•†‡ ”‡ƒ•‡†„›‘”‡–ŠƒʹͳΨ‘˜‡”–Š‡Žƒ•––™‘‘–Š•ȋˆ”‘ ͳͳͻ’‘‹–•‹ ƒ—ƒ”›ʹͲʹͲ–‘ͻ͵’‘‹–•‹ƒ” ŠʹͲʹͲȌǤ ͳ͹

(94) ‘˜‡„‡”ʹͲͳͻǡ–Š‡‘—”–‘ˆ —•–‹ ‡‘ˆ–Š‡—”‘’‡ƒ‹‘ȋ Ȍ†‡Ž‹˜‡”‡†ƒŒ—†‰‡‡–‹ ‘Ǧ ‡ –‹‘™‹–Š“—‡•–‹‘•”‡ˆ‡””‡†ˆ‘”ƒ’”‡Ž‹‹ƒ”›”—Ž‹‰„›–Š‡‹•–”‹ –‘—”–‘ˆƒ”•ƒ™ ‘ ‡”‹‰ ‹”‡ –‹˜‡ͻ͵Ȁͳ͵‘—ˆƒ‹”–‡”•‹ ‘•—‡” ‘–”ƒ –•Ǥ ƒ˜‹‰ ‘•‹†‡”‡†–Š‘•‡“—‡•–‹‘•ǡ  ’”‘˜‹†‡†–™‘•‘Ž—–‹‘•Ǥ ‹”•–‘ˆƒŽŽǡƒ ‘—”–ƒ›ƒ—Žƒ ”‡†‹–ƒ‰”‡‡‡–‹ˆ‹–‹• ‘˜‹ ‡†–Šƒ––Š‡. Ͷʹ.

(95) ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•. ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ. ––Š‡‡†‘ˆ ‡„”—ƒ”›ʹͲʹͲǡŒ—•–„‡ˆ‘”‡–Š‡’ƒ†‡‹ ǡ–Š‡”‡™‡”‡ͷͻͺ„ƒ•‘’‡”ƒ–‹‰ ‹ –Š‡ ‘Ž‹•Š „ƒ‹‰ •‡ –‘”ǡ ‹ Ž—†‹‰ǣ ͵Ͳ ‘‡” ‹ƒŽ „ƒ•ǡ ͷ͵ͷ ‘‘’‡”ƒ–‹˜‡ „ƒ•ȋ‘ˆŠ‹‰ŠŽ›†‹˜‡”•‹ϐ‹‡†•‹œ‡ƒ†‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ•–”— –—”‡Ȍͳͺƒ†͵͵„”ƒ Š‡• ‘ˆ ”‡†‹– ‹•–‹–—–‹‘• ȋˆ‘”‡‹‰ „ƒ•ȌǤ Š‡ „ƒ• Šƒ† ƒŽ‘•– ͳͷ͸ǡͲͲͲ ‡’Ž‘›‡‡• ƒ† ƒ ‡–™‘” ‘ˆ ‘”‡ –Šƒ ͳʹǡʹͲͲ ‘ˆϐ‹ ‡• ȋ„”ƒ Š‡•ǡ •—„•‹†‹ƒ”‹‡•ǡ ƒ‰‡ ‹‡•ǡ ”‡’”‡•‡–ƒ–‹˜‡‘ˆϐ‹ ‡•ȌǤ˜‡”ͶͲΨ‘ˆ–Š‡„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘”ǯ•ƒ••‡–•ƒ”‡Š‡Ž†„›ͺ•–ƒ–‡Ǧ ‘–”‘ŽŽ‡† ‘‡” ‹ƒŽ„ƒ•ȋ•‡‡ ‹‰—”‡ʹȌǤ Figure 2. Structure of the banking sector in Poland by asset value [as at 29 February 2020] By origin of the capital Polish private capital 13.3%. By bank structure Cooperative banks 7.3%. Branches of foreign credit institutions 3.5%. Foreign capital 46.3%. State Treasury 40.4%. Commercial banks 89.2%. ‘—” ‡ǣ‘–ŠŽ›†ƒ–ƒˆ‘”–Š‡„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘”ƒ•ƒ–ʹͻ ‡„”—ƒ”›ʹͲʹͲǡ ǡŠ––’•ǣȀȀ™™™ǤˆǤ‰‘˜Ǥ’ŽȀǫƒ”Ǧ –‹ Ž‡

(96) †αͷ͸ʹʹͶƬ’̴‹†αͳͺȋƒ ‡••ͳ͵ǤͲͷǤʹͲʹͲȌǤ. Š‡‘Ž‹•Š„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘”‹• Šƒ”ƒ –‡”‹•‡†„›ƒ‰”‡ƒ–†‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ„ƒ•™‹–Š”‡‰ƒ”† –‘ –Š‡ • ‘’‡ ‘ˆ ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•ǡ ‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘ǡ ƒ• ™‡ŽŽ ƒ• ƒ••‡–• ƒ† ƒ’‹–ƒŽ Ȃ ˆ‘” ‡šƒ’Ž‡ –Š‡„ƒŽƒ ‡•Š‡‡––‘–ƒŽ‘ˆ–Š‡•ƒŽŽ‡•–„ƒ‹–Š‡•‡ –‘”ƒ––Š‡‡†‘ˆʹͲͳͻ™ƒ• ʹ͹Ǥͻ‹ŽŽ‹‘ȋƒ ‘‘’‡”ƒ–‹˜‡„ƒȌǡ™Š‹Ž‡ˆ‘”–Š‡Žƒ”‰‡•–„ƒ‹–™ƒ•͵ͶͺǡͲͶͶ‹ŽŽ‹‘ ȋƒ ‘‡” ‹ƒŽ„ƒ ‘–”‘ŽŽ‡†„›–Š‡–ƒ–‡”‡ƒ•—”›ȌǤ––Š‡‡†‘ˆ‡ ‡„‡”ʹͲͳͻǡ –Š‡„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘”‰‡‡”ƒ–‡†ƒ’”‘ϐ‹–‘ˆͳͶǡʹ͵Ͳ‹ŽŽ‹‘Ǥͳͻ„ƒ•”‡’‘”–‡†ƒŽ‘•• ‘ˆ͹ͳͷ‹ŽŽ‹‘ȋͶ ‘‡” ‹ƒŽ„ƒ•ƒ†ͳͷ ‘‘’‡”ƒ–‹˜‡„ƒ•ȌǤŠ‡‡–ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ ”‡•—Ž–ƒ––Š‡‡†‘ˆ ‡„”—ƒ”›ʹͲʹͲ™ƒ•ͷͺǤͺΨŠ‹‰Š‡”–Šƒ–Š‡”‡•—Ž–ƒ Š‹‡˜‡†ƒ––Š‡ ‡†‘ˆ ‡„”—ƒ”›ʹͲͳͻǤŽ‡˜‡„ƒ•ǡ‹ Ž—†‹‰͹ ‘‡” ‹ƒŽ„ƒ•ƒ†Ͷ ‘‘’‡”ƒ–‹˜‡ „ƒ•ǡ”‡’‘”–‡†Ž‘••‡•ȋͳͺͶ‹ŽŽ‹‘‹–‘–ƒŽȌǤ ƒ‰”‡‡‡– ƒ‘–”‡ƒ‹˜ƒŽ‹†™Š‡–Š‡ƒ„—•‹˜‡ Žƒ—•‡•ƒ”‡‡Ž‹‹ƒ–‡†Ǥ‡ ‘†Ž›ǡƒƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‘—”– ƒ›—’Š‘Ž†–Š‡ƒ‰”‡‡‡–‹ˆ’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ ‡–Š‡”‡‘ˆ ƒ ‘–‹—‡ƒˆ–‡”—ƒ ‡’–ƒ„Ž‡‹†‡šƒ–‹‘’”‘˜‹Ǧ •‹‘•ƒ”‡”‡‘˜‡†Ǥ

(97) –Š‡‡˜‡–‘ˆ—ˆƒ˜‘—”ƒ„Ž‡ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‘—”–Œ—†‰‡‡–•ǡ–Š‡ ‘•‡“—‡ ‡•‘ˆ–Š‡  Œ—†‰‡‡–ˆ‘”„ƒ•ǡƒ ‘”†‹‰–‘–Š‡‡•–‹ƒ–‡•‘ˆ–Š‡‘Ž‹•Šƒ••‘ ‹ƒ–‹‘ǡƒ›”‡ƒ Š‡˜‡ ͸Ͳ„‹ŽŽ‹‘Ǥ ͳͺ

(98)  –Š‡ ‡–‹”‡ ’‡”‹‘† ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ –Š‡ ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ –”ƒ•ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‹ ‘Žƒ†ǡ ‘‘’‡”ƒ–‹˜‡ „ƒ• Šƒ˜‡ Šƒ† ƒ•ƒŽŽ„—–•–ƒ„Ž‡•Šƒ”‡‹–Š‡„ƒ‹‰ƒ”‡–ǣƒ••‡–•ƒ’’”‘šǤ͹Ψǡ‡–”‡•—Ž–ƒ’’”‘šǤͳͲΨǡŽ‘ƒ•͸Ψǡ ƒ††‡’‘•‹–•ˆ”‘–Š‡‘Ǧϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ•‡ –‘”ƒ’’”‘šǤͳͲΨǤŠ‡›‘’‡”ƒ–‡–Š‡‘•–‡š–‡•‹˜‡‡–™‘”‘ˆ ‘—–Ž‡–•ȋƒ„‘—–ʹͻΨ‘ˆƒŽŽ„ƒ‹‰‘—–Ž‡–•‹–Š‡ ‘—–”›ǡ‡’Ž‘›‹‰ƒ„‘—–ʹͳΨ‘ˆƒŽŽ„ƒ‹‰•‡ –‘” ‡’Ž‘›‡‡•ȌǤ‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡ–Š‡›Šƒ˜‡ƒ͵ʹΨ•Šƒ”‡‹†‡’‘•‹–•ƒ†ͶͲΨ•Šƒ”‡‹Ž‘ƒ•–‘Ž‘ ƒŽ‰‘˜‡”‡– —‹–•ǡƒ†ƒ„‘—–ƒͷͺΨ•Šƒ”‡‹Ž‡†‹‰–‘ˆƒ”‡”•Ǥ. Ͷ͵.

(99) ƒˆ‡ƒʹȋ͹ͻȌʹͲʹͲ. ”‘„Ž‡•ƒ†’‹‹‘•. Š‡˜‘Ž—‡‘ˆŽ‘ƒ•ˆ‘”„‘–Š‡–‡”’”‹•‡•ƒ†Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•‹–Š‡ϐ‹”•––™‘‘–Š•‘ˆ ʹͲʹͲ‹ ”‡ƒ•‡†„›ͳ͸Ǥͻ„‹ŽŽ‹‘ǡƒ†–Š‡˜‘Ž—‡‘ˆ†‡’‘•‹–•„›͹Ǥͻ„‹ŽŽ‹‘Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ–Š‡•Šƒ”‡‘ˆ‘Ǧ’‡”ˆ‘”‹‰”‡ ‡‹˜ƒ„Ž‡•‹”‡ ‡‹˜ƒ„Ž‡•ˆ”‘–Š‡‡–‡”’”‹•‡ ƒ†Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†•‡ –‘”•‹’”‘˜‡†•Ž‹‰Š–Ž› ‘’ƒ”‡†–‘–Š‡‡†‘ˆʹͲͳͻǡƒ‹Ž›ƒ• ƒ”‡•—Ž–‘ˆƒ†‡ ”‡ƒ•‡‹‘Ǧ’‡”ˆ‘”‹‰”‡ ‡‹˜ƒ„Ž‡•‹–Š‡‡–‡”’”‹•‡•‡ –‘”Ǥ ƒ‹‰ ‹–‘ ƒ ‘—– –Š‡ ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ ”ƒ–‹‘•ǡ ƒ– –Š‡ ‡† ‘ˆ ‡„”—ƒ”› ʹͲʹͲ –Š‡ ‘Ž‹•Š „ƒ‹‰ •‡ –‘” ‡Œ‘›‡† ƒ ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž› ‰‘‘† ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ •‹–—ƒ–‹‘ǣ „ƒ• ™‡”‡ •‘Ž˜‡–ǡ ƒ†‘ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡–Š‡›Šƒ†ƒŠ‹‰ŠŽ‹“—‹†‹–›”ƒ–‹‘ǡƒŽ‘™Ž‡˜‡Ž‘ˆϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽŽ‡˜‡”ƒ‰‡ǡ™‹–Š ƒƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡’”‘ϐ‹–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ƒ„‘˜‡–Š‡ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡Ǥ‡•’‹–‡–Š‡‘˜‡”ƒŽŽ’‘•‹–‹˜‡•‹–—ƒ–‹‘ǡ •‡˜‡”ƒŽ „ƒ• ”‡“—‹”‡ –Š‡ ƒ––‡–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡‹” ‘™‡”• ƒ† •—’‡”˜‹•‘”• ƒ† –Š‡ ”‡ƒ†‹‡••‘ˆ–Š‡•ƒˆ‡–›‡–Ž‹–‘—•‡†‡’‘•‹–‰—ƒ”ƒ–‡‡‘””‡•‘Ž—–‹‘‹•–”—‡–•Ǥ Š‹• ‹• ’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”Ž› –Š‡ ƒ•‡ ™‹–Š †‹•–”‡••‡† ‘‘’‡”ƒ–‹˜‡ „ƒ•ǡ ™Š‹ Š Šƒ˜‡ ˜‡”› Ž‘™‘”‘‡‡”‰‡ ›•Šƒ”‡Š‘Ž†‡” ƒ’‹–ƒŽ”ƒ‹•‹‰’‘–‡–‹ƒŽǤŠ‡•‹–—ƒ–‹‘ƒ›’”‘˜‡ ‡“—ƒŽŽ›†ƒ‰‡”‘—•‹ ‘‡” ‹ƒŽ„ƒ•™‹–Šƒ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž›Š‹‰Š•Šƒ”‡‘ˆ–Š‡•‘Ǧ ƒŽŽ‡† ˆ”ƒ Š‹•‡Ž‘ƒ•„—”†‡‡†™‹–ŠŽ‡‰ƒŽ”‹•Ǥ

(100)  ‘Žƒ†ǡ –Š‡ ϐ‹”•– 

(101) Ǧͳͻ ƒ•‡ ™ƒ• ”‡ ‘”†‡† ‘ Ͷ ƒ” Š ʹͲʹͲǡ ƒ† –Š‡ –Š‡ ‘Ž‹•Š‰‘˜‡”‡––‘‘†”ƒ•–‹ ‡ƒ•—”‡•–‘ ‘„ƒ––Š‡•’”‡ƒ†‘ˆ–Š‡’ƒ†‡‹ „› ˆ”‡‡œ‹‰‘•–„—•‹‡••ƒ –‹˜‹–›ǡ Ž‘•‹‰†‘™ƒŽŽ‡†— ƒ–‹‘ƒŽˆƒ ‹Ž‹–‹‡•ǡ• Š‘‘Ž•ƒ† —‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡•ǡ —Ž–—”ƒŽ ‡•–ƒ„Ž‹•Š‡–•ǡ ”‡•–ƒ—”ƒ–•ǡ ƒ† ‘•– •Š‘’•ǡ ”‡‹–”‘†— ‹‰ „‘”†‡” ‘–”‘Ž•ǡ ”‡•–”‹ –‹‰ ‘” „ƒ‹‰ ‡–”› ‹–‘ –Š‡ ‘—–”›ǡ ƒ† •—•’‡†‹‰ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ”ƒ‹Žƒ†ƒ‹”–”ƒ•’‘”–ǤŠ‡’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘™ƒ•‘”†‡”‡†–‘•–ƒ›ƒ–Š‘‡ƒ† ƒ˜‘‹†‰‘‹‰‘—–—Ž‡••‡ ‡••ƒ”›—†‡”–Š‡’‡ƒŽ–›‘ˆŠ‹‰Šϐ‹‡•Ǥ‹‹Žƒ”Ž›–‘•–‘  ‡š Šƒ‰‡•‹–Š‡ƒ†‘–Š‡”—”‘’‡ƒ ‘—–”‹‡•ǡ–Š‡ƒ”•ƒ™–‘ š Šƒ‰‡ ”‡ ‘”†‡†–Š‡‘•–’”‘‹‡–‘‡Ǧ†ƒ›†‡ Ž‹‡‹‹–•Š‹•–‘”›Ȃ–Š‡

(102) ʹͲ‹†‡šˆ‡ŽŽ „›ͳ͵Ǥ͵Ψǡƒ†

(103) „›ͳʹǤ͸ΨͳͻǤ

(104) ‹–‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ–Š‡†‡ƒ†ˆ‘” ƒ•Š‹ ”‡ƒ•‡†Ǥ ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ –Š‡ ƒ‘— ‡‡– ‘ˆ –Š‡ ’ƒ†‡‹  „› –Š‡  ǡ –Š‡ „ƒ‹‰ •‡ –‘” ‡š’‡”‹‡ ‡†•‹‰‹ϐ‹ ƒ– ƒ•Š™‹–Š†”ƒ™ƒŽ•„› —•–‘‡”•ˆ‡ƒ”‹‰•ƒ‹–ƒ”›”‡•–”‹ –‹‘• „‡‹‰’—–‹’Žƒ ‡ƒ†Žƒ ‘ˆƒ ‡••–‘–Š‡‘‡›ƒ ——Žƒ–‡†‹–Š‡‹”ƒ ‘—–•Ǥ Š‡ ˜ƒŽ—‡ ‘ˆ —””‡ › ‹ ‹” —Žƒ–‹‘ Šƒ• „‡‡ ‹ ”‡ƒ•‹‰ •–‡ƒ†‹Ž› ƒ† ‰”‡™ „› ʹ͵Ψ ˆ”‘ –Š‡ „‡‰‹‹‰ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ›‡ƒ” –‘ ‹†Ǧƒ› –Š‹• ›‡ƒ” ȋ•‡‡ ‹‰—”‡ ͵ȌǤ —‡ –‘ ’”‡˜‹‘—•Ž› ƒ ——Žƒ–‡† „—ˆˆ‡”•ǡ ‘ –Š”‡ƒ– –‘ „ƒ•ǯ Ž‹“—‹†‹–› ‘ —””‡†Ǥ

(105)  •‘‡ „”ƒ Š‡•‘ˆ„ƒ•ƒ†•ǡ–‡’‘”ƒ”›‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ’”‘„Ž‡•Šƒ˜‡ƒ”‹•‡ǡ”‡Žƒ–‡† –‘†‡Žƒ›•‹–Š‡†‡Ž‹˜‡”›‘ˆ ƒ•Šˆ”‘–Š‡Ž‘‰‹•–‹  ‡–”‡•‘ˆ„ƒ•ƒ† ƒ•ŠŠƒ†Ž‹‰ ‘’ƒ‹‡•ǤŠ‡•‹–—ƒ–‹‘Šƒ••–ƒ„‹Ž‹•‡†ƒˆ–‡”ƒˆ‡™†ƒ›•ƒ†™‹–Š†”ƒ™ƒŽƒ‘—–• Šƒ˜‡†‡ ”‡ƒ•‡†ǡƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š–Š‡›”‡ƒ‹‡†ƒ–Š‹‰Š‡”Ž‡˜‡Ž•ʹͲǤ ͳͻ. 

(106) 

(107) †‡šȂƒ”•ƒ™–‘ š Šƒ‰‡

(108) †‡šŠƒ•„‡‡ ƒŽ —Žƒ–‡†•‹ ‡ͳͻͻͳƒ†‹ Ž—†‡••Šƒ”‡•‘ˆ ‘’ƒ‹‡• Ž‹•–‡† ‘ –Š‡ ƒ‹ ƒ”‡–Ǥ 

(109) ʹͲ ‹• –Š‡ ‹†‡š ‘ˆ –Š‡ ʹͲ Žƒ”‰‡•– Œ‘‹– •–‘  ‘’ƒ‹‡• Ž‹•–‡†‘–Š‡ƒ”•ƒ™–‘ š Šƒ‰‡Ǥ ʹͲ ‘Ž‡•™‡”‡”‡ ‘˜‡”‹‰Ž‘‰Ǧ–‡”†‡’‘•‹–•ǡƒ†–Š‹•™ƒ•ƒ‹Ž›†—‡–‘–Š‡’ƒ‹  ƒ—•‡†„›–Š‡”—Ǧ ‘—”•–Šƒ––Š‡‰‘˜‡”‡–™‘—Ž†ˆ”‡‡œ‡„ƒƒ ‘—–••‹‹Žƒ”–‘›’”—•ǯ’”ƒ –‹ ‡†—”‹‰–Š‡‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ϐ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ ”‹•‹•ǤPolacy wystraszyli si¸ plotek o niewypÏacalnoäci bankówǡŠ––’•ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ‘‡›Ǥ’ŽȀ’‹‡Ǧ ‹ƒ†œ‡Ȁ’‘Žƒ ›Ǧ™›•–”ƒ•œ›Ž‹Ǧ•‹‡Ǧ’Ž‘–‡Ǧ‘Ǧ‹‡™›’Žƒ ƒŽ‘• ‹Ǧ„ƒ‘™Ǧ„’ǦƒǦ”›—Ǧ’”œ›„›Ž‘ǦͷͳǦŽǦ †ǦœŽǦ™Ǧ‰‘–‘™ ‡Ǧ͸ͷͳͷ͹ʹͷͳͲʹ͹ͻͺͻ͹͹ƒǤŠ–Žȋƒ ‡••͵ͳǤͲͷǤʹͲʹͲȌǤ. ͶͶ.

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