Journal of Geography, Politics and Society, ISSN 2084-0497
Year I, no. 2, December 2011 gpsj our@ug. edu.pl
“A G R E EN ISL A N D ” O R “A N EV ER -LA N D ” ? PO LE S IN T H E FA C E O F T H E CO N TEM PO RA R Y
ECONOM IC C R IS IS
A rkadiu sz MODRZEJEWSKI
U niversity of G d a n sk , D e p a rtm e n t of Political Science, 4 B ażyńskiego s tr., 8 0 -9 5 2 G d a ń sk , Poland
E-m ail: m odrzejew ski@ univ.gda.pl
Summary: In 2 0 0 9 P o lan d w a s th e only EU m em b e r s ta te w h ic h re c o rd e d th e in c re a s e in g ro s s d o m e stic s p ro d u c t (GDP). In m ed ia re p o rts a n d d u rin g th e p r e s s c o n fe re n ce s of th e re p re s e n ta tiv e s of th e P olish g o v e rn m e n t th e econom ic m a p of E u ro p e w a s p re s e n te d w ith re d co lo ur d o m in a tin g - re p re s e n tin g th e d e c re a se in GDP. G reen colour, sym b olising th e in c re a s e , w a s only visible w ith in th e b o rd e rs of Poland. T herefore, P o lan d w a s d e c la re d
“a g re e n is la n d ”. Som e econom ic c o m m e n ta to rs e m p h a s ise d e ith e r g re a t in te r n a l m a rk e t or w e a k e n in g zloty w h ic h fav o u red th e ex p ort of P olish g oo d s a n d se rv ic es a s a n in c re a s e drive. T he Prim e M inister a n d th e m in is te rs in d ic a te d th e ir ow n m e rits convincing th e citizens t h a t th e in c re a s e in GDP in P o lan d i s to a g re a t e x te n t t h a n k s to a n effective g o v e rn m e n t policy. Som e, especially d u rin g d is c u s s io n s w h ic h w ere far from econom ic rea ltie s, e m p h a s ise d th e im p o rta n c e of th e EU f u n d s w h ic h h a v e b e e n s tim u la tin g P olish grow th. In fact, th e s e f u n d s c a n n o t in flu e n c e th e rev erse of neg ativ e tre n d s in th e P olish econom y. T h eir size in a n a n n u a l p e rsp e c tiv e e q u a ls 3% of P olish GDP. E conom ic a n d political a n a ly s e s seld o m in d ic a te , p e rh a p s only in d irectly , th e c u ltu r a l p h e n o m e n o n , w h ic h d isc lo ses only a fte r sociological su rv ey s. A ltho ug h th e Polish econom y h a s rec o rd e d so m e grow th , d e sp ite a slig h t grow th, th e c risis h a s also affected P o lan d a n d Poles still feel i t s effects (w eak en ing zloty, u n e m p lo y m e n t in c re a s e , c e ssa tio n of th e d y n a m ic s of sa la ry in c re a s e , d e c re a se in th e v alu e of th e in v e s tm e n t fu n d s u n its a n d c o m p an y sh a re s). As th e c risis in P oland h a s a s s u m e d a light form , d o es P o lan d d eserv e b ein g called “a g re e n is la n d ” or p e rh a p s “a
n e v e r-la n d ” w h e re th e o p tim istic econom ic d a ta a re r a th e r a p p a re n t?
In th is a rticle I will try to sh o w th e a ttitu d e s of Poles to w a rd s th e global econom ic c ris is a s well a s in te rp re t th is sta te . T he b a sic referen ce c o n s is ts of th e r e s u lts of th e o p in io n polls.
Keywords: econom ic crisis, Poland, „green isla n d ”, politics, global econom y.
* * *
In 2 0 0 9 P o lan d w a s th e only EU m e m b e r s ta te w h ich re c o rd ed th e ic re ase in g ro ss dom ectic p ro d u c t (GDP). In m e d ia re p o rts a n d d u rin g th e p r e s s c o n feren eces of th e re p re se n ta tiv e s of th e Polish g o v ern m en t th e econom ic m a p of E u ro p e w a s p re s e n te d w ith re d co lo u r d o m in a tin g - re p re se n tin g th e d e c re a se in GDP. G reen co lo u r, sym b o lisin g th e in c re a s e , w a s only visible w ith in th e b o rd e rs of Poland.
T herefore, P o lan d w a s d e cla re d “a g re e n is la n d ”. Som e econom ic c o m m e n ta to rs e m p h a s is e d e ith e r g re a t in te rn a l m a rk e t or w e ak e n in g zloty w h ich fav o u red th e e x p o rt of Polish goods a n d serv ices a s a n ic re ase drive. The Prim e M in ister a n d th e m in is te rs in d ic a te d th e ir ow n m e rits convincing th e citizen s t h a t th e in c re a se in GDP in P o lan d is to a g re a t e x te n t th a n k s to a n effective g o v erm ent policy. S o m e , especially d u rin g d is c u s s io n s w h ich w ere fa r from econom ic re a lia s , e m p h a s is e d th e im p o rta n c e of th e EU f u n d s w h ich h av e b e en s tim u la tin g Polish grow th. In fact, th e se fu n d s c a n n o t in flu n ce th e rev erse of negative tr e n d s in th e Polish econom y. T h eir size in a n a n n u a l p ersp ectiv e e q u a ls 3% of P olish GDP. They m ay alleviate th e c o n se q u e n c e s of th e d e te rio ra tio n of econom ic s itu a tio n [Wojtowicz 2010: 164-165].
E conom ic a n d p o litical a n a ly s e s seldom in d ic a te, p e r h a p s only in d irectly , th e c u ltu ra l p h e n o m e n o n , w h ich d isclo se s only a fte r sociological su rv ey s. A lth o u g h th e Polish econom y h a s reco rd ed som e grow th, d e sp ite a slig h t grow th, th e c risis h a s also affected P o lan d a n d Poles still feel its effects (w eakening zloty, u n e m p lo y m e n t in c re a se , c e s s a tio n of th e d y n a m ic s of s a la ry in c re a se , d e crea se in th e v alu e of th e in v e stm e n t fu n d s u n its a n d co m p an y sh a re s) [Czekaj 2010:
199-201]. H ow ever, d e sp ite th is , Poles, w ho are u sa lly
re g a rd ed a s p e ss im is ts a n d w ith te n d e n c ie s to co m p lain , have n o t given in to th e global h y s te ria trig g ered by th e fin an cial m a rk e ts, a n d th erefo re a slig h t grow th in GDP h a s a p p ea re d . Polish people h av e n o t b ro k e n off w ith c o n su m e r lifestyle, w h ich is a p e c u lia r p h e n o m e n o n on a E u ro p e a n scale. D espite th e te m p o ra ry d e crea se in re ta il a t th e in itial stag e of th e global crisis, a lre ad y in th e first q u a r te r of 2 0 0 9 th e re w ere som e sig n s of im p ro v em en t. In M arch 2 0 0 9 12 % grow th in re ta il in a m o n th ly fram e w a s re p o rte d . However, in a n a n n u a l ra tio , u n til M arch 2 0 0 8 a slig h t d e c re a se of one p e rc en ta g e p o in t w a s re p o rte d [Słaby 20 0 9 : 20-21].
As th e c risis in P o lan d h a s a s s u m e d a light form , d o es P o lan d deserve b ein g called “a g reen is la n d ” o r p e r h a p s “a n e v e r-la n d ” w h ere th e o p tim istic econom ic d a ta a re ra th e r a p p a re n t?
In th is article I will try to show th e a ttitu d e s of Poles to w a rd s th e global econom ic c risis a s well a s in te rp re t th is s ta te . The b a sic referen ce c o n sis ts of th e r e s u lts of th e opinion polls. The c risis w h ich o c cu red in th e global econom y in th e sec o n d h a lf of 2 0 0 8 is a p h e n o m e n o n w h ich h a s b e en sufficiently d e sc rib e d by th e eco n o m ists a n d th erefo re I do n o t in te n d to a n a ly se its s o u rc e s o r its c o u rse a n d I will n o t a tte m p t a n y eco n o m etric e x tra p o latio n s. I will fo cu s on Polish p h e n o m e n o n b u t n o t its econom ic a sp e c t b u t r a th e r on its social a n d c u ltu ra l one. I will m ak e u s e of th e m e th o d called civilizational e x p la n a tio n w h ich e n a b le s to p r e s e n t th is is s u e in a b ro a d e r co n tex t. The crisis will be perceived a s a p h e n o m e n o n in a p ro c e ss of c h a n g e s of civilizational c h a ra c te r [C h odubski 1998].
The o p in io n polls a s well a s c o n su m e r b e h a v io u r su rv ey sh o w t h a t Poles a re aw are of th e crisis s itu a tio n in th e global econom y b u t w h a t is in te re s tin g is t h a t th e y do n o t tra n s fe r it on to th e p e rs o n a l g ro u n d to s u c h a n e x te n t a s th e ir n e ig h b o u rs : th e C zechs, S lo v ak s a n d H u n g a ria n s [Wenzel 2 0 0 9 b : 2]. T hey sh o w m o re o p tim ism in th is m a tte r w h ich obviously h a s b o th a d v a n ta g e s a n d d is a d v a n ta g e s ; t h a t will be d is c u s s e d f u r th e r on in th is article. At th e b eg in n in g of th e c risis in N ovem ber 2 0 0 8 7 5 % of th e re s p o n d e n ts d eclared th a t th e ir h o u s e h o ld did n o t s e n s e it. However, in F e b ru a ry 2 0 0 9 d u e to m e d ia p ro p a g a n d a th e n u m b e r of th o s e d eclarin g th e s e n s e of c risis in th e ir ow n h o u s e h o ld w ith th e n u m b e r of
th o s e w ho did n o t s e n s e it eq u alled (48% e a c h group), a m o n th la te r th e n u m b e r of th o s e w ho s e n s e d th e c risis d e c re a se d to 44% a n d people d e cla rin g la ck of th e c o n n ec tio n b e tw ee n th e econom ic s itu a tio n of th e ir h o u s e h o ld w ith th e global c risis in c re a s e d to 5 2 % . The m o s t b o th e rso m e effect of th e crisis for Poles is a la c k of p o ssib ilities of a d d itio n a l w o rk w h ich affects th e d e crea se in th e h o u s e h o ld in co m e. 2 2 % of th e re s p o n d e n ts in d ic a te d t h a t in c o n v en ien c e. E sp ecially th e u n em p lo y ed , seek in g jo b s in ‘b la c k econom y, s e n s e d th e crisis. M ost of th e m re m a in e d w ith o u t a n y jo b . The in co m e h a s also d e c re a se d in th e g ro u p of in d u s tria l a n d c o n stru c tio n w o rk e rs w h ich w a s c o n n ec te d w ith th e lim itatio n of overtim e, b o n u s e s a n d difficult s itu a tio n of ex p o rtin g c o m p a n ie s. M ore afflu e n t Poles s e n s e th e c risis d u e to th e d e crea se in th e v alu e of th e ir w ealth w h ich th e y h av e in v e sted in s to c k s o r u n its of in v e stm e n t fu n d s. T h is in co n v en ien ce w a s s e n s e d by a lm ost. 8% of th e re s p o n d e n ts . 5 % of th e re s p o n d e n ts in d ic a te d th e in c re a se in foreign c u rre n c y d e b t service, m ain ly in S w iss fran c s.
How ever, 5 2 % of th e re s p o n d e n ts w ith c re d its in S w iss fra n c s in d ic a te d th e in co n v en ien ce c o n n ec te d w ith th e in c re a se in th e c re d it in s ta lm e n t a n d d eb t. 4% of th e re s p o n d e n ts claim ed t h a t th e y lo st th e ir job a s a r e s u lt of th e global c risis [W enzel 2 0 0 9 a: 2-3].
P aradoxically, la c k of th e negative p e rc ep tio n of th e in flu en ce of th e econom ic c risis on ow n h o u se h o ld did n o t affect th e t r u s t to w a rd s s ta te a n d p riv ate fin an cial in s titu tio n s . Poles a re r a th e r critical to w a rd s g o v ern m en t activity a n d th e y e x p re ss d o u b ts c o n ce rn in g th e s ta te econom y. At th e b e g in n in g of th e crisis P o lish people w ere a sk e d a b o u t th e ir p re d ic tio n s c o n ce rn in g th e in flu en ce of th e crisis on th e fin an cial s itu a tio n in th e ir h o u se h o ld , in s ta te econom y a n d in th e ir w o rkplace. Only 12% of th e re s p o n d e n ts e x p re sse d th e opin io n th a t th e c risis will n o t h av e a n y in flu en ce on th e Polish econom y. 60% s ta te d th a t it will h a v e a n in flu en ce a n d 12%
s ta te d t h a t it h a s a lre ad y affected th e econom y.
T ak in g th e s itu a tio n in th e fam ily a n d in th e w orkplace in to c o n sid e ra tio n , 40% of th e re s p o n d e n ts m a in ta in e d th a t th e crisis will n o t h av e a negative effect on th e s itu a tio n in th e fam ily (39%) a n d in th e w o rk p lace (44%). No m ore th a n 40%
s a id th a t it will h av e som e in flu en ce. 8% of th e re s p o n d e n ts th o u g h t t h a t th a t th e crisis h a s a lre a d y affected th e ir fam ily
a n d 5% th a t it h a s in flu en c ed th e ir w o rkplace. R a th e r o p tim istic p e rc ep tio n of th e s itu a tio n in th e h o u s e h o ld a n d w o rk p lace is n o t a cc o m p a n ied b y a positive e v alu a tio n of th e Polish econom y. 48% of th e re s p o n d e n ts believed th a t th e Polish econom y is b ad ly p re p a re d for th e fin an cial crisis. O nly 23% claim ed t h a t it is well p re p a re d . H ow ever, only 1% from th o s e 23% s ta te d th a t th e Polish econom y is p re p a re d very well. The re m a in in g re s p o n d e n ts w ere m o re c arefu l a n d said t h a t th e Polish econom y is r a th e r w e ll-p re p a red for th e crisis.
29% of th o s e interview ed h a d no o p in io n on t h a t m a tte r [Wenzel 20 0 8 : 4-5].
Poles do n o t sh o w a definite la c k of t r u s t to w a rd s fin an cial in s titu tio n s . It p a rtic u la rly c o n c e rn s th e b a n k s a n d to a le ss e r degree in v e stm e n t fu n d s a n d in s u ra n c e c o m p an ies.
58% of th o s e interview ed in 2 0 0 9 claim ed th a t th e y h av e tr u s t to w a rd s th e b a n k s . At th e sa m e tim e m ajo rity of th e re s p o n d e n ts (48%) claim t h a t in c u r r e n t s itu a tio n b a n k s do n o t g u a ra n te e th e p ro fits from th e fu n d s e n tr u s te d to th e m a n d th e y do n o t tr e a t th e c lie n ts a s p a r tn e rs (54%) only c arin g for th e ir ow n b u s in e s s (76%). Poles also th in k t h a t b a n k s u s e too h ig h m a rg in s a n d u s u r io u s in te re s t r a te s [Pankow ski 20 0 9 : 2-8].
Along w ith th e sy m p to m s of th e c risis th e b a n k s s ta r te d to tig h te n th e c rite ria for g ra n tin g a lo an . In c ase of m o rtg ag es, ta k e n esp ecially in foreign c u rre n c ie s, u s u a lly in S w iss fra n c s, th e b a n k e r s so m etim e s in d u c e d th e ir c lie n ts to re -n e g o tia te th e lo a n a g re e m e n t d e m a n d in g h ig h e r c o lla terals a n d th e c h an g e of th e in te re s t ra te of th e c re d it c o n n ec te d w ith th e d e c re a se in th e v alue of th e p ro p e rty a n d th erefo re th e d e c re a se in c lie n t’s ow n c o n trib u tio n . M oreover, th e y s ta r te d to in tro d u c e a d d itio n a l, often h id d e n , c h a rg e s for a cc o u n t, sav in g s a c c o u n t a n d cre d it m a in te n a n c e .
D ue to a d ra m a tic d e c re a se in th e v alue of zloty th e lo sse s w ere felt b y th e e n tre p r e n e u r s w ho h ave d ecid ed o n so- called c u rre n c y option. W hen, d u rin g th e boom on w o rld ’s sto c k ex ch an g e, a n d also on W arsaw sto c k ex ch an g e, zloty w a s s tre n g th e n in g to th e level e n d a n g e rin g th e in te re s ts of e x p o rte rs, th e b a n k s offered th e p o ssib ility to m a k e ‘b e ts ’ on th e ex ch an g e ra te of zloty. C u rre n c y o p tio n s p ro te c te d th e foreign c u rre n c y incom e of th e c o m p an ies a g a in s t th e in c re a se in th e v alu e of zloty. However, w h e n zloty w a s lo sin g its v alu e,
m a n y c o m p an ies decid in g on th e se ty p e s of a g re e m e n ts w ith th e b a n k s s ta r te d to face b a n k ru p tc y . A ccording to Polish F in a n c ia l S u p e rv isio n A u th o rity in th e first q u a rte r of 2 0 0 9 th e fin an cial liab ilities a ris in g from c u rre n c y o p tio n a g re e m e n ts a m o u n te d to 15b n PLN (approxim ately € 4 bn). W h at is in te re s tin g is t h a t d e sp ite s u c h a difficult s itu a tio n co n n ec te d w ith c u rre n c y o p tio n s a n d d e b ts in foreign c u rre n c ie s, Poles do n o t u s u a lly h ave p ro b le m s w ith th e ir fin a n c ial liabilities. In 2 0 0 7 w h en th e Polish econom y re c o rd ed a relatively h ig h grow th of GDP a n d zloty w a s b re a k in g th e re c o rd s of v alu e a n d in th e p h a s e of recovering from re c e ssio n in 2 0 1 0 th e n u m b e r of people d eclarin g th e re g u la rity of re p a y m e n ts (90%) a n d th o s e h a v in g p ro b le m s w ith it (10%) w a s th e sam e . The c risis did n o t in te n sify th e p h e n o m e n o n of c lie n ts ’ insolvency. The p ro b le m s w ith re p a y m e n ts generally c o n c e rn th e u n em p lo y ed a n d people w ith low er in co m es. However, it c o n c e rn s th e p erio d before a s well a s a fte r th e c risis [Kowalczuk 2010:8].
In m y o p in io n th re e e n d o g e n o u s fa c to rs decide on th e a p p ro a c h of th e Polish society to w a rd s th e global econom ic crisis:
(1) H isto rical ex p erien ce of econom ic crisis in c o m m u n istic tim e s a n d in ‘sh o c k tra n s fo rm a tio n ’ a fte r 1989
(2) D isclosing d isp ro p o rtio n s a t th e so cial a n d econom ic level in Poland
(3) Specific P olish m e n ta lity w h ich c a n be d e sc rib e d a s ‘It will be so m eh o w ’
Even n o w a d ay s people in th e ir th irtie s re m e m b e r ‘h a rd tim e s ’ a t th e e n d of co m m u n ism . The e n d of 1 9 7 0 s a n d th e w hole d ecad e of 1 9 8 0 s w ere p e rm a n e n tly c o n n ec te d w ith th e econom ic crisis. The e ra of E d w ard G ierek, 1st S e c re ta ry of th e Polish U n ited W o rk ers’ P a rty 1 9 7 0 -1 9 8 0 , e n d e d u p in P o lan d h av in g a gigantic d e b t a n d th e s h o rta g e of th e b a sic c o n su m e r goods. Toilet p a p e r, h a m , coffee a n d c itru s fru it w ere co n sid e re d a s ‘lu x u rio u s g o o d s’ in P eople’s R epublic of Poland.
Not to even m e n tio n o n e ’s ow n flat a n d a flat allo catio n one h a d to w ait for d e ca d e s. A lo t of goods s u c h m e a t, co sm etics, sw eets, s h o e s a n d even v o d k a w ere sold for sp ec ia l v o u c h e rs w h ich d e te rm in e d th e q u a n tity of a given p ro d u c t a p e rso n co u ld p u rc h a s e . In fact, th e re w a s a g u a ra n te e of em p lo y m en t b u t P olish c u rre n c y w a s w o rth le ss. The s a la ry of a n average
Pole co n v erted in to d o lla rs u s in g b la c k m a rk e t ex ch an g e ra te w a s no m ore th a n $ 25. As a m a tte r of fact it w a s a s tr u c tu r a l crisis. The c risis w h ich affected a lm o st every fam ily in Poland.
It w a s a re a l crisis. It did n o t c o n ce rn th e v irtu a l fin an ces. It affected th e q u a lity of life of a n in d iv id u a l a n d a fam ily to a m u c h g re a te r e x te n t th a n th e p re s e n t crisis. If m o st of c o n te m p o ra ry a d u lt Poles re m e m b e r th e tim e s of p e rm a n e n t s h o rta g e s th e n th e y perceive th e to d a y ’s crisis in a different way.
The p sy ch e of Polish people w a s h a rd e n e d im m u n iz in g a g a in s t th e c risis h y s te ria w ith its ‘sh o c k th e ra p y ’. Poles le a rn t how to fu n c tio n in difficult econom ic c o n d itio n s w h ich in c o m p a riso n w ith th e c u r r e n t s itu a tio n seem m u c h m ore b o th e rso m e. S ince th e b e g in n in g of th e refo rm s w h ich w ere in itia te d in 1989 by th e m in is te r of fin a n c e s a n d la te r th e c h a irm a n of th e N atio n al B a n k of P o lan d p ro fesso r L eszek Balcerow icz, Poles h ave ex p erien ced th e u n c o m fo rta b le s itu a tio n of th e la c k of stab ility of e m ploym ent. T h eir w orld did n o t collapse a fte r th e c risis like it d id for th e G re ek s o r o th e r n a tio n s w ho w ere a c c u sto m e d to th e life in th e c o n d itio n s of w elfare s ta te . A fter y e a rs of c o m m u n ism Poles e n te re d th e p h a s e of p re d a to ry c ap italism . T he s ta te h a s n o t c re a te d th e c o n d itio n s of th e so cial sec u rity . T herefore, even th e th r e a t of job lo ss a t th e tim e of global c risis d o es n o t seem th a t terrifying a s a Polish w o rk er w ith th e s e n s e of job te m p o ra rin e s s in a given c o m p an y h a s b e e n fu n c tio n in g for two d e ca d e s. A job lo ss d u e to la c k of a n e x ten d e d social s e c u rity b e n e fits re q u ire s in s ta n t p ro fessio n al activ atio n . Long
te rm u n e m p lo y m e n t w ith o u t u n e m p lo y m e n t b en efit is a n a lte rn ativ e. The s ta te only g u a ra n te e s h e a lth in s u ra n c e . The s itu a tio n on th e la b o u r m a rk e t h a s n o t c h a n g e d a s a re s u lt of th e crisis.
C u rre n tly , th e u n e m p lo y m e n t ra te in P o lan d is low er th a n in 2 0 0 6 . In 2 0 1 0 th e re w ere 2 m ln u n e m p lo y e d Poles. The u n e m p lo y m e n t ra te w a s slig h tly h ig h e r th a n 12%. In 2 0 0 6 , 2 y e a rs before th e crisis, th e re w ere 2 .3 m ln u n e m p lo y e d Poles w h ich c o n s titu te d ap p ro x im ately 15% of people in th e ir w o rk in g age. Before P o la n d ’s a c c e ssio n to th e EU th e u n e m p lo y m e n t a m o u n te d to 20% [C en tral S ta tis tic a l Office].
O ne of th e c h a ra c te ris tic s of Polish society is a g re a t d isp ro p o rtio n in so cial a n d econom ic developm ent. It is visible
in a v e rtic al a rra n g e m e n t a s well a s in a h o riz o n ta l one. In th e first c ase it is a p ay d isp ro p o rtio n , a n d in th e sec o n d one a reg io n al diversity. Polish society h a s n o t y e t m a n a g e d to c reate econom ically a n d politically im p o rta n t m iddle c la s s w h ich is ty p ical of w ell-off W este rn societies. A d is tin g u is h in g m a rk of a m iddle c la ss is g en erally h ig h e r e d u c a tio n , m e n ta l w o rk a n d h ig h p a y e n ab lin g n o t only th e su rv iv al b u t also e n su rin g r a th e r h ig h s ta n d a r d of life. It w a s believed th a t th e m iddle c la s s w ould em erge from th e in te lle c tu a ls. It is a p a rtic u la r C en tral a n d W estern E u ro p e a n social c re a tio n w h ich em erged in th e 1 9 th c e n tu ry a n d su rv iv ed th e perio d of c o m m u n ism . Its b a sic a ttrib u te w a s a ca d e m ic e d u c a tio n a n d sen sitiv ity to social is su e s .
However, d e sp ite c u ltu ra l c ap ital, th e in te lle c tu a ls, w ith th e excep tio n of few p ro fessio n s, did n o t p o s s e s s econom ic cap ital. T o g eth er w ith th e p o p u la ris a tio n of h ig h e r e d u c a tio n , th e re d u c tio n of th e in te lle c tu a ls ’ im p o rta n c e a n d d e p re cia tio n of e d u c a tio n w h ich w ere th e ir b a sic a ttrib u te a p p ea re d . T his p ro c e ss s ta r te d d u rin g c o m m u n ism w h en th e so cial p ro m o tio n of th e y o u th of r u r a l a n d w o rk in g b a c k g ro u n d o c cu rred . D ue to social a n d p o litical activity th e y o u th m a n a g e d to g ain a w id er a c c e ss to e d u c a tio n also a t th e aca d e m ic level. New in te lle c tu a ls of th e first g e n eratio n w ere b o rn even th o u g h th e aca d e m ic e d u c a tio n re ta in e d its elitism quality. It c o n c e rn s especially th e u n iv e rsitie s w ith a long tra d itio n . In 1988 few er th a n 5% of Poles h a d a h ig h e r e d u c a tio n . W h en th e ru le s of th e free m a rk e t w ere in tro d u c e d in to h ig h e r e d u c a tio n a t th e b e g in n in g of 1 9 9 0 s it c a u s e d a m a s s d ep re cia tio n of h ig h e d u c a tio n dip lo m as. T h is p e c u lia r e d u c a tio n a l re v o lu tio n led to a d is a p p e a ra n c e of th e in te lle c tu a ls b u t it w a s n o t co n n ec te d w ith th e b irth of a n ew m iddle c lass. F irstly , d u e to th e fact th a t m e n ta l w o rk ers, esp ecially em ployed in th e p u b lic se c to r (doctors, te a c h e rs , sc h o la rs, clerk s, c u ltu re w orkers), w ere g en erally low -paid. T h eir s a la rie s w ere s p e n t on o v e rh e ad s a n d food. Secondly, a lot of people w ith h ig h e d u c a tio n d ecid ed on a jo b below th e ir q u alificatio n s, also p h y sic a l w ork, w h ich does n o t a s s u m e belonging to a m id d le class.
W h at is th e n th e c o n n ec tio n w ith th e p re s e n t c risis?
The crisis h a s affected th e social c la s s th a t h a s achieved c e rta in level of life. F irst of all, it affected c u rre n tly c re a te d m iddle c lass. N ot th e in te lle c tu a ls b u t a social c la s s a d a p tin g
to new civilizational re a litie s, m o s t often y o u n g , e d u c a te d , well- p a id a n d m obile people. In P o lan d th is g ro u p s ta r te d to be called ‘fran c g e n e ra tio n ’. Of c o u rse S w iss fran c. The n a m e o rig in ated from th e m o rtg ag e w h ich th e y co u ld afford to b u y a flat o r a h o u se . At th a t tim e th e m o rtg ag e s ta k e n in Sw iss fra n c s w ere th e m o s t p o p u la r a s th e y w ere m u c h c h e a p e r th a n th o s e in zloty, d o lla rs o r eu ro . Along w ith th e w orld c risis Polish zloty w a s d e p re c ia te d c o m p ared to th e m a in w orld c u rre n c ie s. F o r m a n y people th e in c re a s e in th e v alu e of Sw iss fran c w a s sh o ck in g . It affected th e in c re a s e of th e in s ta lm e n t a n d d e b t w hile co n v ertin g in to zloty. F u rth e rm o re , em erging m iddle c la s s h a d th e ir sav in g s in v e sted in to in v e stm e n t fu n d s.
The re d u c tio n of th e u n its of th e s e fu n d s led to re d u c tio n of th e w e alth of th a t class.
Briefly sp ea k in g , th e c rise s affected th e s e so cial a n d p ro fessio n al g ro u p s w ho co u ld afford to becom e th e v ictim s of th e crisis. F o r th e w o rk e rs w ho w ere n o t so w ell-p aid a n d w ho w ere n o t th e s h a re h o ld e rs a n d w ho co u ld n o t afford to ta k e a m o rtg ag e, th is econom ic s itu a tio n did n o t d e te rio ra te in s u c h a d ra m a tic w ay. O bviously, C en tral S ta tis tic a l Office reco rd ed th e in c re a se in th e u n e m p lo y m e n t ra te . It is j u s t slightly above 10% a n d a t th e m o m e n t it is m u c h low er th a n before th e a c c e ssio n to th e EU w h e n it re a c h e d 20% . It is tru e th a t th e in flatio n ro se a n d th e p ric e s of som e b a sic goods w e n t u p . However, th is in c re a s e w a s j u s t a c o n tin u a tio n of th e tr e n d s before th e crisis. A nd it is h a r d to in d ic a te th e re la tio n betw een th e in c re a s in g in flatio n a n d th e global crisis.
T h is stra tific a tio n of Polish society a n d th e in flu en c e of th e c risis on th e well-off p a r t of th e society sh o w th e specific form of th e c risis p ro c e sse s. It is th e p h a s e in th e civilizational d ev elo p m en t w h ich affects th is social gro u p th e m o s t w h ich h a s ach iev ed re s o u rc e s (financial, cu ltu ra l) e n a b lin g th e m to fu n c tio n in a n ew civilizational reality. It is th e c risis of v irtu a l w orld, v irtu a l m oney. F o r s u re it in te rfe re s w ith th e re a l w orld.
N evertheless, P o lan d , b ein g slightly civilizationally b e la te d in c o m p a riso n w ith p o s t-in d u s tria l so cieties of th e W est, is ex p erien cin g th is crisis in a specific w ay. The c risis h a s affected th o s e w ho by th e ir p ro fessio n a n d c a p ita l belo n g to th e p o s t-in d u s tria l w orld. T h o se w ho live in th e in d u s tria l o rd e r (in d u strial w o rk er, low -paid s ta ff of service sector) a n d in a tra d itio n a l one (farm ers) h av e b e en affected to a le ss e r
e x ten t. It h a s n o t affected th e m directly. W hy? B ec a u se ta k in g re s o u rc e s in to c o n sid e ra tio n th e y do n o t b elong to th e w orld in w h ich th e c risis goes on.
As I h ave m e n tio n e d before P o lan d is stra tifie d h orizontally. W ith re s p e c t to civilizational d ev elo p m en t a n d econom ic p o te n tia l th e re is n o t one P oland. In m a s s m e d ia a n d m ore a n d m o re often in re s e a rc h w o rk s P o lan d “A”, “B” a n d “C”
a re m e n tio n e d . W hile P o lan d “A” m e a n s q u ite a d y n am ic d ev elo p m en t a n d m o d e rn isa tio n , a d a p tin g to th e c h allen g e s of global econom y a n d E u ro p e a n in te g ra tio n a s well a s c h a n g e s in m o ral s p h e re , P o lan d “B” a n d to a n even g re a te r e x te n t P o lan d “C” is th e n e g atio n of th e s e p h e n o m e n a a n d tre n d s . P o lan d “A” is co m p o sed of Polish ag g lo m eratio n s (certainly n o t all of them ) w ith W arsaw b ein g d istin g u ish in g ly th e ric h e s t a n d th e m o st d y n am ically developing Polish m etro p o lis. P o lan d
“B” u s u a lly c o n s titu te s of th e r u r a l a re a s a n d sm all to w n s w ith relatively h ig h level of so cial a n d econom ic dev elo p m en t, e.g.
W ielkopolska (G reater Poland), p a r t of M azow sze (Mazovia) or Pom orskie (Pom erania). P o lan d “C” is co m p o sed of m o stly b e la te d reg io n s, lo cated m ainly on “th e e a s te rn w all”, so along th e e a s te rn b o rd er.
How ever, sim ila r social a n d econom ic p ro b le m s a re also em erging in th e w e ste rn p a r t of Pom orskie V oivodship. The division of P o lan d “A”, “B” a n d “C” is to som e degree re le v a n t to th e division of “p o s t-in d u s tria l”, “in d u s tria l” a n d “r u r a l”
P oland. However, e a c h of th e se reg io n s will h av e th e re p re se n ta tiv e s of p o st-m o d e rn , in d u s tria l a n d r u r a l o rd e r - th e la s t g ro u p c a n h a rd ly be fo u n d in big cities b u t th e y c o n s titu te a p a r t of th e society ex istin g in its n eig h b o u rh o o d (M odrzejewski 2 0 0 7 : 248]. The global crisis, b ein g in te rp re te d a s th e c risis of th e 2 1 st c e n tu ry , affects esp ecially P o lan d “A”. It is th is g ro u p w h ich co u ld afford to ta k e lo a n s, in v e st sav in g s in th e in v e stm e n t fu n d s o r s to c k m a rk e t, w h ich is confirm ed by th e su rv ey ta k in g te rrito ria l division of P o lan d in to c o n sid e ra tio n [C zapliński 200 9 : 58-73]. The in h a b ita n ts of th is a re a a re th e b en eficiaries of th e c h a n g e s of civilization w h ich overlap p ed th e econom ic re fo rm s w h ich h av e b e e n in tro d u c e d by P o lan d sin ce th e e n d of 1980s. P o lan d “B” a n d “C” h a s b e en affected by th e c risis b u t n o t directly. The p ro b le m s em erging in th e m o s t d y n am ic a r e a of P olish econom y trig g er o th e r reg io n s a n d a s a re s u lt th e re is a n in c re a s e in u n e m p lo y m e n t
a m o n g th o se w ith low sa la rie s, a d e c re a se in incom e a n d finally p ro b le m s w ith re g u la r d e b t re p a y m e n t in c lu d in g c red it liabilities. The crisis affects all b u t its re s u lts a re s e n s e d w ith different in te n s ity a n d a t d ifferen t in terv als.
It affects m o s t severely people fu n c tio n in g in th e field of th e m o st m o d e rn b ra n c h e s w ith a d isa d v a n ta g e to in n o v atio n a n d d ev elo p m en t of m o d e rn econom y. L im iting th e ir fin an cial p o ssib ilitie s r e s u lts in th e s tr u c tu r a l in d o len ce of th e econom ic sy stem . H eavy in d u s try a n d a g ric u ltu re w h ich h a s b e en relatively m ildly affected by th e c risis are no m ore a drive to a m o d e rn econom y. It is high tech a n d fin an cial services. Briefly sp ea k in g , th e c risis is th e crisis of th e 2 1 st c e n tu ry b u t a g re a t p a r t of o u r c o u n try is still in th e 2 0 th c e n tu ry a n d th erefo re th e r e s u lts of th e c risis m a y n o t be a s severe a s th e y will be in c ase of econom ically highly-developed c o u n trie s. If th e w o rk ers of econom ic a v a n t-g a rd e c o n c e n tra te d in a sm all p a r t of P o lan d “A” c o n s titu te j u s t a fractio n of th e w hole s ta te econom y, th e n th e econom y m a k e s u s e of th e la b o u r force from tra d itio n a l se c to rs. In c ase of c risis th e le ss innovative th e econom y is, th e b e tte r. B esid es th e d irect in flu en ce of th e crisis, th e re is a re a l a lte rn ativ e w h ich fu n c tio n s m ore o r le ss in th e sam e w ay a s it did before th e crisis. However, in c ase of s u c h g re a t in te rn a l m a rk e t a s th e Polish one a n d a g re a t
”tra d itio n a l a lte rn a tiv e ” even a m in im al econom ic grow th is po ssib le. A nd even th o u g h th e in h a b ita n ts of P o lan d “B” a n d
“C” h av e n o t re a c h e d th e level of in co m e a n d econom ic d ev elo p m en t of th e in h a b ita n ts of P o lan d “A”, th e y h ave g ain ed som e c o n su m e r c u sto m s. In s te a d of sav in g m o n ey d u rin g th e crisis, th e y s p e n d m on ey driving th e econom ic s itu a tio n on th e in te rn a l m a rk e t. D espite th e ir low er sh o p p in g cap a b ilities a n d p ro b lem s, th e y keep u p th e c o n su m p tio n tre n d , w h ich a s a re s u lt in flu en c es a gro w th in GDP.
H ere th e th ir d facto r a p p e a rs - th e c u ltu ra l o r precisely th e m e n ta l one, p e c u lia r Polish m e n ta lity a n d th e fa ith th a t “it will be so m eh o w ” [Tarasiew icz 201 1 : 41-42]. T h is a p p ro a c h m e a n s sp o n ta n e ity , s h o rt-s ig h te d n e s s a n d em o tio n ality in th e d ecisio n -m ak in g p ro c e ss of econom ic c h a ra c te r, w h ich is proved by th e re s e a rc h c o n d u c te d by so cial p sy ch o lo g ists [S an to rsk i 20 1 1 : 5]. In g e n eral Poles do n o t b e a r th e h a llm a rk s of ’p r o te s ta n t’ econom ic c u ltu re . T hey seem m u c h clo ser to th e M e d ite rra n e a n n a tio n s w ho a re driv en by irra tio n a l
im p u lsiv e n e ss w hile ta k in g d ecisio n s, also th o s e of econom ic c h a ra c te r. It c o n c e rn s th e ir sav in g s a n d sh o p p in g , b u t very often also b u ild in g th e c o m p a n y ’s policy. Im p ro v isatio n is a fe a tu re of Polish c h a r a c te r a n d it re p la c e s a lo n g -term p lan . T h is a p p ro a c h is deeply ro o ted in tra d itio n a l Polish c u ltu re . F o r g e n e ra tio n s Polish people have b e e n following th e ru le of
‘k eep in g u p w ith th e J o n e s e s ’ (lavish h o sp ita lity b ey o n d y o u r m ean s) w h ich d oes n o t m e a n th e tra d itio n a l h o sp ita lity b u t it g en erally m e a n s o s te n ta tio u s d isp lay of th e so cial a n d econom ic p o sitio n . T h ese are th e c h a ra c te ris tic a rte fa c ts of S a rm a tia n c u ltu re w h ich d e sp ite th e p a ssa g e of tim e still fu n c tio n in m a s s a w a re n e ss. T h is m e n ta lity c a n n o t be even affected by th e global econom ic re c essio n . In th e c o n d itio n s of free m a rk e t, o s te n ta tio u s c o n su m e rism h a s becom e m a s s alter ego of Poles.
After y e a rs of c en trally p la n n e d econom y, s h o rta g e s of b a sic goods a n d services, n o t to m e n tio n lu x u ry goods, Poles, w ho h ave h a d c o n ta c ts w ith th e W est, h av e grow n th e c o n su m e r longing. Along w ith g a th e rin g w e alth a n d goods availability, finally th e y co u ld becom e re a l c o n su m e rs.
T herefore, th e c risis did n o t evoke a n y w a rn in g s ta te in Poles a n d it did n o t in d u c e th e m to save. A few y e a rs of good econom ic s itu a tio n m a d e Polish people th e c o n s u m e rs n o t only of b a sic goods b u t also of goods defined a s lu x u rio u s. G iving in to th e c risis w o u ld m e a n lim iting th e ir e x p e n se s on c o n su m p tio n , w h ich in t u r n w ould m e n ta lly t u r n th e m b a c k to th e s ta te of s h o rta g e s , a n d unfu lfilled c o n su m e r d esires. T h a t is w hy Poles c u ltiv ate th e ir c o n su m e r ideal. T hey do n o t w a n t to w ait u n til n e x t g e n e ra tio n s to becom e a p a r t of th e W estern w orld also in th e econom ic sen se .
W ith all th in g s co n sid e re d , re tu rn in g to th e q u e stio n a sk e d in th e title of th is article, c a n we call P o lan d ‘a g reen is la n d ’ o r sh o u ld we te n d to call it ‘a n e v e r-la n d ’? B eing ‘a g reen is la n d ’ d o es n o t r e s u lt from a n y e x tra o rd in a ry cap ab ility of th e Polish econom y, from its s tro n g fo u n d a tio n s, b u t from a low level of in n o v a tio n a n d s tro n g c o n su m e r p re s s u re . W h at is th e econom y b a rrie r d u rin g th e perio d of gro w th p arad o x ically p ro te c te d th e econom y a g a in s t th e d e c re a se in th e v alu e of GDP. The m y th of ‘a g reen is la n d ’ tu r n e d o u t to be very u se fu l a s a story-telling. Polish people s ta r te d to believe t h a t th e c risis d o es n o t c o n ce rn th e m . T h a t is w hy th e y c o n c e n tra te d
o n th e ir p re v io u s activities. However, ‘a g reen is la n d ’ is j u s t a m y th b e c a u s e s tru c tu ra lly Polish econom y is b elated . The c risis h a s b e e n th e le a s t b u rd e n s o m e to tra d itio n a l b ra n c h e s , in c lu d in g a g ric u ltu re w h ich still em ployed ap p ro x im ately 20%
of Poles. O n th e o th e r h a n d , it h a s affected th e m o s t th o se w ho h ave b e e n b u ild in g th e m o d e rn econom y. Is n ’t ‘a g reen is la n d ’ r a th e r ‘a n e v e r-la n d ’ w h ere o p tim istic d a ta is only seem ingly o p tim istic? The fu r th e r stag e of th e c risis w hich we c a n w itn e ss will p ro b a b ly rev eal th e fragility of th e fo u n d a tio n s of Polish ‘g reen is la n d ’.
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