Bioenergy development in the Netherlands – Scenario I
I. Dafnomilis
1, Y.P. Wachyar
2, D.L. Schott
1, M. Junginger
2, R. Hoefnagels
2*Corresponding authors: I. Dafnomilis, email: I.Dafnomilis@tudelft.nl, phone: +31152785935 and Y.P. Wachyar, email: Y.P.Wachyar@uu.nl, phone: +31611143373 1. Maritime and Transport Technology, Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 2, 2628 C D Delft, The Netherlands
2. Energy & Resources, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
BioLogiK NL project Efficiënte Biomassa Logistieke Ketens voor Nederland April 2015
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1
Introduction
The key purpose of this document is to develop different scenarios concerning the deployment of bio-based resources in the Netherlands. The country is lagging behind its renewable energy targets; 4.4% in total final energy consumption was provided from renewables in 2013, instead of 5.9-7.2% that was expected and that would indicate an ability to more comfortably meet the 14% target of 2020. A drastic change in the energy field will have to take place in the short to midterm future and thus, scenarios are important to explore the variety of situations with regard to bioenergy deployment in the Netherlands. The principal justification to develop scenarios is the uncertainty regarding the Dutch bioenergy utilisation, especially beyond 2020. From a technological perspective, the readiness of when bioenergy production systems will enter commercial markets is in doubt. It is unclear when bioenergy technologies will be able to produce bio-based products at a large-scale level and at a competitive market price compared to fossil fuels. From a supply perspective, it is uncertain what fraction of the demand for bioenergy in the Netherlands will be fulfilled through imports or domestic production. Currently, the Netherlands has been relying on wood pellet imports (approx. 90% of biomass for electricity) in order to reach the renewable energy target for the electricity sector, and is expected to rely on them for the future as well1 (Netherlands Enterprise Agency, 2014). In the transport sector, the country relies on import of liquid biomass to conform with blending obligations2 in the transport sector through the double counting policy3 (Jonker & Junginger, 2011; Pelkmans, Goh, Junginger, & Benedetti, 2014).
In relation to biofuels production, the current situation in the EU shows that there is an overcapacity in conventional biofuels production plants, in particular biodiesel. Biofuel International reported that in some EU member states such as Germany, the Netherlands and Hungary, biofuels production surpasses their domestic demand (Biofuels International, 2012). Production overcapacity indicates the difficulty on introducing biofuel products in larger markets. To illustrate the point, a report by Argus Media shows that a number of large-scale biodiesel producers reduced their production capacity because of lack of
prospective consumers in Northwest Europe (Argus Media, 2015). According to the EU Handbook of Biofuels Market, overcapacity in biofuels production is caused by several factors: (1) expensive production costs; (2) import of biofuels from Brazil and US; (3) policy debates on Integrated Land Use Change (ILUC) and food security4 (CrossBorder Bioenergy Working Group, 2012).
Despite the overcapacity and the competition with imported biofuels, several biofuel production facilities will be established in the EU until 2020. In accordance to ILUC and food security concerns, those new biofuel production facilities will be focussed on producing bioethanol and second-generation biofuels (Aylott, 2012). Moreover, by October 2014, the European Commission (EC) reached a political agreement to set a 7% cap on conventional biofuels which are derived from food and feed sources (Searby, 2014). This political agreement has an effect on bioenergy supply chains in the EU. With a 7% cap of conventional biofuels, the focus of bio-based industries will be stimulated on producing advanced biofuels as a bio-based renewable energy source, particularly for the transport sector. Furthermore, this policy will reduce the number of imported biofuels from countries where biofuels are derived from food and feed sources.
There is an opportunity for Dutch bio-based industries to capture potential markets of liquid biomass in Northwest Europe. Due to its geographical advantage and infrastructure facilities, Port of Rotterdam has potential for becoming a biomass hub for Northwest Europe. Moreover, research and development for
1According to the Ministry of Economic Affairs, in 2011, the Netherlands imported 1 Mt of wood pellets as feedstock to
generate 20 PJ out of 27.6 PJ of (co-fired) electricity whereas another 7.6 PJ of electricity were generated from feedstock that is derived from waste streams such as residual and waste wood (Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2012). Most of the waste streams come from domestic production while imports only consists of 10% of total residual and waste wood.
2 It is an obligation for fuel suppliers to blend biofuels with road transport fuels in the Netherlands. The percentage of blending
biofuels increases over time from 4.25% (2011) to 5% (2012) (energy content in MJ) (Grinsven & Kampman, 2013b; Jonker & Junginger, 2011).
3 Double counting policy is a policy to support advanced biofuels utilisation in the transport sector. If fuel suppliers produce
biofuels from waste, residues, non-food cellulosic materials and lignocellulosic materials, their blending obligation is counted double. For instance, a fuel supplier only needs to sell road transport fuel with 2.5% blend of biofuels in order to fulfil the 5% blending obligation.
4Debates on ILUC and food security lead into the policy to limit the use of biofuels which are derived from food sources (e.g.
corn). Instead, biofuels producers are encouraged to produce advanced biofuels, w hich are derived from cellulosice materials, residues (e.g. forest and agricultural residues), and waste (e.g household and municipal waste).
3 supporting technologies for bio-based industries are stimulated. They can be used to support bio-based industries in serving not only domestic but also wider markets in the EU. For example, there are two advanced biofuels production facilities that are able to produce biofuels on a commercial level with a production capacity of 9605 million litres per year and 2506 million litres per year respectively (Flach, Bendz, Krautgartner, & Lieberz, 2013).
Despite its technical potential, the future of advanced biofuels is still uncertain, particularly beyond 2020. It is still difficult to calculate the amount of advanced biofuels production since many production facilities either in the Netherlands (e.g. BioMCN, Neste Oil) or USA (e.g. Beta Renewables-Novozymes, POET-DSM) are still in an early stage of development (Janssen, Turhollow, Rutz, & Mergner, 2013). Moreover, one limitation to produce advanced biofuels is sustainable supply of biomass feedstock. With limited availability of forestry and agricultural land as well as high-priced cultivation costs in the Netherlands, it is unlikely that the demand for biomass feedstock will be domestically supplied. Therefore, import from rich biomass regions such as the US and Canada is strategic in order to ensure a sustainable supply for
bioenergy production.
In future additions to this work, the role of the Netherlands and more importantly the port of Rotterdam as a hub in their captive and contestable hinterland (including Belgium, Denmark, Germany and possibly the UK) will be analysed. Additionally, the supply options will be looked into and integrated in the report, as the source side of the supply chains plays an important role in defining and shaping transitional and final costs in biomass supply chains.
In the above context, the BioLogiK NL project aims to develop knowledge of the logistics chains of biomass from abroad to the Netherlands, optimize them in the short and medium-long term and reduce costs by, among other things, identifying which existing infrastructure can be adapted and should be improved and where new infrastructure in the exporting countries as well as in the Netherlands and the surrounding countries is necessary.
5 This advanced biorefinery uses Hydrogenation technology with vegetable oil and animal fats as feedstock. This biorefinery
produces HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) that is used as feedstock for producing biodiesel.
6 This advanced biorefinery uses Fischer-Tropsch (FT) Gasification technology to produce bio methanol with Glycerine as the
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2 Policy review and general drivers
The drivers of bioenergy deployment are categorised into (1) legal and regulatory; and (2) economic (Junginger, Schouwenberg, Nikolaisen, & Andrade, 2014).
2.1 Legal and regulatory drivers
European Union level
Until 2020, the RED 2009/28/EC is essentially the main key factor that encourages renewable energy deployment. This regulation prevails at EU level and becomes the trigger of renewable energy trajectory at a country level as well. RED 2009/28/EC mandates the legally binding targets at a member state level, in order to increase the overall share of renewable energy to 20% of gross final energy consumption in 2020. (incl. 10% in transport sector). Moreover, the Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) 2009/30/EC7 encourages the use of renewable sources (e.g. biofuels, electric system) in transport sector. In essence, FQD is aimed at reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity from activities in the transport sector, particularly in road transport. The target of FQD is to reduce 6% of the GHG content of road fuels by 2020 in comparison to 2010 as a baseline year. The use of biofuels holds an important role in achieving the target of GHG reduction.
The role of renewable energy becomes very essential to achieve more competitive, secure, and sustainable energy system in the long-term (European Commision, 2013). Therefore, it is important to increase the share of renewable energy in the final energy consumption in order to achieve these objectives. The European Commission (EC) sets the target of renewable energy share on final consumption to rise to 27% (2030). Besides, in the electricity sector, the share is expected to increase from 21% to 45% in the same time period. However, the EC considers that it is not appropriate to set specific targets of renewable energy in other sectors such as transport and heat beyond 2020.
These policies point towards renewable energy trajectories at country level up to 2020. Although the target of renewable energy share on final energy consumption rises after 2020, specific targets for renewable energy deployment are not established in the individual sectors.
National (Dutch) level
Legal and regulatory drivers at a national level are derived from the Dutch National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) and the Energy Agreement (‘Energieakkoord’).
The Dutch National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) (Ministerie van Economische Zaken, 2009) was drawn up and submitted to the European Commission in order to comply with the mandatory model defined by the EC. In the NREAP, the Dutch government describes the path to achieve the targets set by the RED 2009/28/EC (renewable energy share at 14% by 2020). Furthermore, several strategies to meet the energy demand in the Netherlands as stated on NREAP are:
Promoting cleaner and more efficient energy supply through improving energy savings, producing more renewable energy, and promoting carbon (CO2) capture and storage
Interventions at the energy market by promoting consumers in the strategic position as well as encouraging energy innovation on a central and local level
Creating a stable investment climate for energy-related industries through defining a clear framework and procedures, as well as providing additional incentives at appropriate situations The Dutch NREAP does not establish targets for renewable energy beyond 2020. Therefore, it is not publicly known how the demand for renewable energy resources, particularly biomass, as the largest contributor in the renewable energy sector, will be shaped.
In 2013, energy-related stakeholders agreed to encourage, among other measures, the bio-based economy through sustainable energy deployment with the Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth
(Energieakkoord voor duurzame groei).
7 This regulation standardises the technical specification of petrol and diesel fuels for being used in road and non
5 The objectives of the Energy Agreement are as follows:
An annual saving of 1.5% in final energy consumption, leading to a 100 PJ saving in final energy consumption in the Netherlands by 2020
An increase in energy generated from renewable sources from 4.4% (2012) to 14% (2020) and a further increase to 16% in 2023
Creating at least 15 thousand full-time employment positions
Biomass is and is expected to remain the largest renewable energy source in the Netherlands. Biomass contributes to approximately 70% of the renewable energy portion in final energy demand, whereas wind and other renewable energy resources (e.g. hydro-electric power, solar energy, geothermal) contribute 19% and 11% respectively (Social and Economic Council of the Netherlands, 2013). Therefore, biomass (in particular solid biomass) will play a significant role to achieve the objectives of the Energy Agreement. According to the Energy Agreement, Dutch stakeholders are expected to promote renewable energy generation from bio-based resources. Solid biomass, in the form of wood pellets, will be supported to be used in co-firing in power plants, with a cap of 25 PJ of final energy generation.
The Energy Agreement sets the target of renewable energy share at 16% of total energy consumption by 2023. However, strategies for deploying bioenergy for the long-term need to be further developed since public support for co-firing between wood pellets and coal power plant8 (Social and Economic Council of the Netherlands, 2013) and the utilisation of conventional (first-generation) biofuels will be limited (Bourguignon, 2015).
Processing liquid biomass into biofuels is essential in order to meet the target of 10% of renewable energy sources in the transport sector as mandated in RED by 2020 . The strategy to meet the target is
undertaken through blending biofuels and fossil transport fuels in road transport. For the Dutch case, , the proportion of blended biofuel (e.g. bioethanol) is still small in comparison to fossil fuels. For example, since 2010, under Dutch biofuels obligation, fuel suppliers are required to include a minimum share of 3.5% of biofuels in their overall sales of road transport fuels (based on energy content ) in both diesel and petrol fuels. (Grinsven & Kampman, 2013a). The minimum share of biofuels (blending obligation) in road transport fuels remains the same until 2020. Moreover, this blending obligation is the major key driver to stimulate liquid biomass deployment in the Netherlands (Jonker & Junginger, 2011).
2.2 Economic drivers
In general, economic drivers are categorised into subsidies and commodity prices (Junginger et al., 2014).
Subsidy scheme
In the Netherlands, the SDE+ is the responsible subsidy scheme to stimulate renewable energy
production in the electricity, heat, and gas sectors (Stimuleringsregeling Duurzame Energiproductie/SDE+). This feed-in premium support scheme is the major instrument for the Netherlands to achieve its renewable energy target of 14% in 2020.
The cost of producing renewable energy is expensive and therefore always higher than production costs for fossil fuels (e.g. coal and oil). The SDE+ is applied as an operating feed-in-(tariff) premium subsidy, where producers receive a subsidy for the production of renewable energy. It is aimed at companies and (non-profit) organisations that would like to produce renewable energy. It compensates for the margin between the cost price of grey energy and renewable energy, over a period of 5, 12 or 15 years, depending on the relevant technology. The subsidy amount depends on the technology used and the amount of renewable energy produced. Concerning solid biomass, it is possible to apply for a subsidy for co-firing in coal power plants.
Commodity price
There are three commodity prices that influence the competitiveness of bioenergy: (1) fossil fuel; (2) wood/raw material; and (3) CO2 (Jonker & Junginger, 2011). Fossil fuel and CO2 prices are inversely proportional to biomass feedstock prices. From an economic point of view, as the prices of fossil fuels
8 As the result of Energy Agreement, government support for co-firing between wood pellets and coal power plant is
6 (e.g. coal and oil) and CO2 increase (for example due to high carbon tax), bioenergy becomes a more attractive energy source than fossil fuels. In contrast, the higher the price of the raw material (for example due to scarcity), the less attractive the bioenergy resource.
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3 Review of existing bioenergy demand scenarios
This section reviews existing bioenergy demand scenarios in the Netherlands. It is aimed at providing a general overview with regard to the variability of bioenergy demand by considering different driving factors. The discussion of existing bioenergy demand scenarios is based on a variety of literature reviews. The section is structured based on (1) solid biomass; and (2) liquid biomass (advanced biofuels). 3.1 Solid biomass
2020
The demand for solid biomass is derived from three sources: (1) NREAP of the Netherlands (Ministerie van Economische Zaken, 2009); (2) National Energy Exploration ‘Nationale energieverkenning’ (Hekkenberg & Verdonk, 2014); and (3) Reference Projection Energy and Emission (Verdonk & Wetzels, 2012). As mentioned above, the deployment of renewable energy and bioenergy in the Netherlands to 2020 will most likely be in line with the energy agreement, including the decommissioning of coal power plants that were built in the 1980s (Table 1). Heat from biomass, both residential and industrial process heat might still grow in order to meet the gap in meeting the renewable energy target, though this is unlikely for the 2020 horizon.
According to the National Renewable Energy Action Plan the Netherlands is expected to be able to cover a big part of its needs in biomass feedstock for heat purposes (mainly through waste and residual products from agriculture and fisheries), however imports of significant amounts of biomass are expected in the electricity sector – combined burning in coal-fired power plants.
According to experts’ opinions, there is little doubt that biomass needs to be used in power plants, as currently there is no reliable alternative that provides security of supply and is a solid backup choice to the amounts of renewable energy needed, even if currently co-firing of biomass at current coal and CO2 prices is only feasible if supported through subsidies.
In general, the use of biomass for energy purposes (heat, electricity, transport fuels) is still expected to be dominant over advanced bio based materials (plastics, chemicals) up to 2030. Even though co-firing may not be supported up to 2030, it will continue to dominate solid biomass imports. shifting biomass resources to the chemical sector is not highly expected in the time period considered (to 2030).
Plant name Status Capacity
[MWe]
Commissioning Decommissioning
Amer (unit 8) Operating 645 1980 2016
Amer (unit 9) Operating 600 1993 2038
Borssele (unit 12) Operating 403 1987 2016
Eemshaven (unit A) Under constru ction 800 2015 2058 Eemshaven (unit B) Under constru ction 800 2015 2058
Gelderland (unit G13) Operating 602 1981 2017
Hemweg (unit HW8) Operating 630 1994 2039
Maasvlakte (unit 1) Operating 520 1975 2017
Maasvlakte (unit 2) Operating 520 1975 2017
Maasvlakte (unit 3) Under constru ction 1050 2013 -
GDF Under constru ction 731 2016 -
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2030
Concerning the biomass energy landscape for 2030, the energy agreement concerning the co-firing capacity in coal power plants is assumed to remain the same, but the actual amount of final energy consumption of biomass for co-firing is reduced due to a lower utilization of the power plants and the increasingly larger share of wind and photovoltaic (PV) power production; electricity production from wind will more than double between 2020 and 2030 while production from PV in the same time will almost triple (Hekkenberg & Verdonk, 2014).
Biomass use is not expected to be a major contributor to heating for residential and services sector in the Netherlands, however industrial heat production from wood pellets, in light of the SDE+ subsidy scheme and the Energy Agreement support, will become competitive by 2030. Waste incineration and small-scale energy production from biomass will grow, as will biogas production through gasification of waste, manure and slurry streams.
Biomass use in the chemical and novel material sector is highly uncertain, but the total market share is expected to be low, depending on the assumptions about the bio-based economy growth. Model projections of bioenergy and biobased materials deployment in the Netherlands to 2030 for the project Macro-economic outlook of sustainable energy and biorenewables innovations (MEV II) will be available mid-2015. These results will provide more insight on the role of biobased materials in the Netherlands under different scenario conditions.
Table 2 shows the demand in electricity and heat from biomass for 2020 and 2030, and Figure 1 the amounts of final energy that will be produced from direct utilisation of solid biomass. A detailed
breakdown of the demand for solid biomass can be found in Table 11 in the Appendix of this document.
Demand for bioenergy Unit 2013 2020 2030
Biomass Electricity PJe 21.6 60
162-330
Biomass Heat PJth 34.4 64
Table 2 Demand for bioenergy (2013-2030) (Corbey, 2014; NREAP, 2010; Hekkenberg & Verdonk, 2014)
The NREAP for the Netherlands initially estimated a 30 PJ of final energy from co-firing, however, the Energy Agreement later set the cap for co-firing at 25 PJ. Co-firing, as well as other industrial needs will be met almost exclusively through biomass imports of wood pellets since there is no available production of pellets in the Netherlands (or in the surrounding EU countries that is not used for the needs of each country domestically). The 25PJ amount corresponds to roughly 3.3Mt of wood pellets, taking into account conversion efficiencies (currently ~45% for the newly built power plants) and wood pellet energy content (~17GJ/ton). The efficiency of conversion of biomass to heat is considered as 85%. (Bjerg et al., 2011). Industrial heat through biomass is assumed to reach 20 PJ, using mainly the same quality pellets that are used for co-firing.
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Figure 1 Final energy demand from solid biomass (Corbey, 2014; NREAP, 2010; Hekkenberg & Verdonk, 2014)
3.2 Liquid biomass (advanced biofuels)
The demand for advanced biofuels is derived from two sources: (1) calculation of energy carriers in transport sector by the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN)9, CE Delft, and TNO (Cuelenaere et al., 2014); and (2) National Energy Outlook (NEV) 2014 ECN.
Cuelenare et al. (2014) calculate the demand in the transport sector and categorise it into four different scenarios (Figure 3). These four scenarios are developed by considering two major uncertainties as shown in Figure 2: (1) the introduction of renewable energies; and (2) the introduction of alternative drive trains. These two uncertainties are mapped into two axes of uncertainty. Based on these two axes, four scenarios are developed.
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Figure 2 Axes of uncertainty as the basis to develop four demand scenarios in transport sector (Cuelenaere et al., 2014)
Figure 3 Four scenarios for the energy mix in the Dutch transport sector 2010-2050 (Cuelenaere et al., 2014). Y-axis represents the final energy consumption [PJ]
The first scenario is the biofuels and efficiency scenario. This scenario emphasizes on the utilisation of bioenergy feedstock for producing an energy carrier. Bio-based products are assumed as competitive as fossil fuel. Advanced biofuels are blended with fossil fuels for road transport (e.g. vans, trucks, and busses).
The second scenario is the new and all-renewable scenario. This scenario emphasizes the deployment of various renewable technologies (e.g. bioenergy, battery and fuel cells) in the transport sector. This scenario assumes that renewable energy technologies will grow rapidly and will be implemented in the transport
11 sector (e.g. electric cars, hydrogen transport). Advanced biofuels are mainly used for long-distance
transport instead of passenger transport and short freight distances.
The third scenario is the efficient fossil fuel scenario. This scenario emphasizes the efficiency in fossil fuel consumption due to the stagnancy in technological development of renewable energy technologies. Advanced biofuels are used in freight transport such as trucks and inland shipping.
The fourth scenario is a fossil electricity/hydrogen deployment scenario. This scenario emphasizes mainly on the utilisation of electricity use in the transport sector (e.g. hydrogen fuel cell technology, electric propulsion). Advanced biofuels are blended with fossil fuels in road and inland transport.
The NEV calculates the demand of advanced biofuels based on two scenarios. First, the demand is calculated based on current policies (e.g. energy agreement 2013) that are effectively implemented from April 2014. Secondly, the demand is calculated by taking into account uncertainty factors such as oil prices, economic growth, and sector-specific development.
Table 3 shows the demand calculation for advanced biofuels in the transport sector for these sources. Depending on the scenario, advanced biofuels demand ranges from 15 PJ to 40 PJ in 2030. In comparison to 2020 projection in the Dutch NREAP, the demand for advanced biofuels in the transport sector increases with 0.2-5.6 % between 2020 and 2030.
NREAP Ceuelenaere et al. 2014 NEV
Energy Demand in Transport Sector Unit 2020 C-2030 (Scenario 1) C-2030 (Scenario 2) C-2030 (Scenario 3) C-2030 (Scenario 4) M-2030 (Adopted Policies) M-2030 (Proposed Policies) PJ 445.2 460 485 350 485 430.3 437.2 Advanced biofuels demand PJ 13 40 15 15 15 35.7 35.7 Proportion in transport sector % 2.92% 8.70% 3.09% 4.29% 3.09% 8.30% 8.17%
12 3.3 Total primary bioenergy demand in the Netherlands
An overview of the whole bioenergy sector from 2013 to 2030 can be seen in Figure 4. The substantial difference between the two 2030 demand scenarios highlights the uncertainty of renewable energy in general, and bioenergy in particular in the Netherlands. It is mostly based on assumptions made
concerning co-firing percentages in power plants for electricity production (or 100% conversion of power plants in some cases), focusing more heavily in avoiding fossil fuel use and use of raw materials in the heat sector for energy savings in refining and coke production (Corbey 2014).
Figure 4 Primary bioenergy demand in the Netherlands (Corbey 2014)
The demand of liquid biomass will largely depend on policies and technological development. Policies such as blending obligations and double counting strongly encourage the development of a biofuel economy. The NEV scenarios (Hekkenberg & Verdonk, 2014)distinguished between adopted (existing) and proposed policies. In 2030, NEV calculated that the demand of advanced biofuels can reach up to 35 PJ. Although policies are distinguished into adopted and proposed, the demand for advanced biofuels remains the same on these two scenarios.
If biofuels and energy efficiency becomes the main focus, demand for liquid biomass can reach up to 40 PJ (scenario 1). In this case, it is assumed that bioenergy will be as competitive as fossil fuels. In contrast, if renewable resources are considered to be deployed rapidly in the transport sector, the demand for liquid biofuels decreases at 15 PJ. In this case, fossil fuels are still dominant as the energy carrier in the transport sector, new renewable technologies cover a big part of the transport energy needs, whereas advanced biofuels are used for long distance transport (scenario 2).
From a technological perspective, seeing that the pace of technological development for other renewable sources in the transport sector (e.g. hydrogen, solar power) is slow, biofuels will be the predominant contributor to achieving the renewable energy target in the transport sector. If the development of alternative technologies becomes the main focus, the total energy demand in the transport sector decreases (at 350 PJ in 2030 compared to 445 PJ in 2020) and liquid biomass increases its presence at 4.3% in the transport sector (scenario 3). If the technological development is slow, fossil fuels will remain the most dominant energy carriers in the transport sector. The total energy demand in the sector remains high at 485 PJ, but advanced biofuels are blended with fossil fuels for road and inland transport (scenario 4). For both purposes, the energetic demand of liquid biofuels is 15 PJ, however their percentages in the sector vary (4.3% vs 3%).
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4 Scenario development
4.1 Introduction
Since the situation regarding bioenergy deployment beyond 2020 is quite uncertain, scenario development is important in order to investigate the range of possible situations of bioenergy deployment in the Netherlands up to and beyond this time horizon.
As shown in Figure 5, we developed the scenarios using three approaches. Firstly, a literature review on existing scenarios was undertaken. The purpose of the literature review was to gain an insight in the demand situation of solid and liquid biomass in the Netherlands. Though a number of sources (e.g. reports, statistics data) was used during the review, information concerning bioenergy deployment beyond 2020 was rare and uncertain.
Secondly, we discussed with stakeholders who were experienced and active in the (bio)energy industry in the Netherlands, via interviews and focus group discussions. The purpose of these activities were to obtain information from an industrial perspective and to gain insight about possible situations regarding the bioenergy deployment beyond 2020. In the scope of the BioLogikNL project, the Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development from Utrecht University organized some workshops that aimed to identify, qualify, and quantify the demand for energy, traditional and new material purposes in time steps to 2030, based on inputs from existing and future sectors of the bio based economy. Representatives from the power, transport fuels, chemicals and domestic and international imports (US) forestry sectors presented their views on the bio based economy and gave their respective opinions in the shaping of these scenarios. Thirdly, based on the literature review and the discussion with the stakeholders, several criteria were selected as the basis for analysing the range of possibilities of bioenergy deployment pathways beyond 2020. We propose five scenario variables as the basis to develop scenarios: (1) bio-based industry development; (2) domestic resources; (3) imported biomass intermediates; (4) import of bio-fuels (bio-based final products); and (5) infrastructure services (existing and future development).
In total three scenarios were created for this study. Table 10 Comparison of the different scenarios shows the general characteristics of the three scenarios in this study and
Figure 6 illustrates them. Two time intervals were set: (1) bioenergy deployment up to 2020; and (2) bioenergy deployment beyond 2020 until 2030.
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Figure 5 Process of developing scenarios
Scenarios developed for this study:
1. baseline/business as usual situation (Table 4)
2. baseline + promotion of 2nd generation biofuels from liquid intermediates (Table 6) 3. baseline + promotion of 2nd generation biofuels from solid biomass (Table 8)
According to Table 10, initially, we assessed biomass resources that are domestically available and biomass that needs to be imported for three sectors: electricity, and industrial and residential heat. Waste wood, residues, and municipal wastes are biomass resources that are available within the Netherlands. Wood pellets are commodities that are imported since there are no production facilities and/or potential for production in the country.
In the next step, we assessed infrastructure services, in particular related to logistic operations. We distinguished two conditions related to infrastructure services: Firstly, we assumed that existing
infrastructure is sufficient to support the bioenergy deployment in the Netherlands. This situation applies to the baseline scenario in which there will be no significant changes in bioenergy deployment in the future. Secondly, we proposed to develop new infrastructure in order to support bio-energy deployment for liquid biomass production in the Netherlands. As proposed in the alternate scenarios, liquid biofuels will be produced in the Netherlands but the feedstock (e.g. wood pellets, torrefied pellets, and pyrolysis oil) are imported. Besides, we realised that the end-users of liquid biofuels will be not only indiustrial entities within the country but also in other countries in Northwestern Europe. Therefore, we propose infrastructure development to support two situations: (1) importing biomass feedstock for advanced biofuels production within the Netherlands; and (2) distributing advanced biofuels to industries within the Netherlands and Northwest Europe. Moreover, from a logistics perspective, there are certain points that need to be taken into account related to economies of scale:
Liquid biomass can easily take advantage of the economies of scale of bulk liquid transport chains such as tanker ships of huge capacity, tank storage facilities in ports etc. In the case of pyrolysis oil however, certain precautions need to be taken in order to avoid common problems due to its high corrosive properties, such as steel lining in tankers, storage tanks etc.
Wood and torrefied pellets take advantage of the high energy content and low bulk density of the pellets compared to other raw biomass products (e.g. wood chips) that could be used instead for co-firing or 2nd generation fuel production. Moreover, torrefied wood pellets have a higher energy density than regular wood pellets, making them more economical to ship than wood pellets. They are also more resistant to moisture and less likely to degrade than wood pellets, making them easier to handle and more practical to ship and store
15 A bio-based industry development is an important criterion that is sharply defined in the baseline and alternate scenarios. In this study, the bio-based industry development concerns industrial activities that produce advanced biofuels within the Netherlands from imported intermediate products, instead of relying on importing the final product.
In the liquid biomass scenario, the final products of biofuels (both conventional and advanced), are imported until 2020. Beyond 2020, only pyrolysis oil, as an intermediate product, will be imported
In the solid biomass scenario, the final products of biofuels (both conventional and advanced) are imported until 2020. Beyond 2020, solid biomass in the form of wood pellets and torrefied pellets, is imported as feedstock for producing advanced biofuels
Figure 6Σφάλμα! Το αρχείο προέλευσης της αναφοράς δεν βρέθηκε. implicitly shows that there are clear policy targets for importing solid and liquid biomass up to 2020. Beyond 2020, the focus will be based on advanced biofuels to meet the targets of renewable energy demand. In general, these scenarios have similar pathways until 2020 but differ beyond 2020.
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Figure 6 Visualisation of the three proposed scenarios
The business as usual scenario is exactly what its name suggests. It is based on decided upon policy for the 2020 horizon, and takes safe assumptions for the 2030 horizon, having a conservative approach to bioenergy deployment, based on industry experts and recent national reports.
The two alternative scenarios highlight the significant uncertainty in the bioenergy field for the long term future. These two alternative scenarios were based on the utilisation of 2nd generation biofuels (advanced biofuels). Although 2nd generation fuels are currently 100% imported, it is unlikely that this will be the case up to 2030. Developing infrastructure for producing 2nd generation biofuels within the country, the Netherlands do not only make investments concerning the chemical and refining industry of the country for the long-term future, but the by-products of the processes can be useful in other industries as well; lignin residues could be used in the power sector, sugars sold to other industries etc. The independency of the country from external 2nd generation biofuel producers is of course another deciding factor. The scenarios examine 2 different potential routes for the production of 2nd generation biofuels within the Netherlands, based on different intermediate products.
These three scenarios are closely linked to two biomass intermediate products: 1. Liquid biomass.In the liquid biomass route, the imported intermediate product is:
a. pyrolysis oil/bio-crude
2. Solid biomass. In the solid biomass route, there are two imported intermediate products: a. wood pellets
b. torrefied pellets
Wood pellets can be used in direct or indirect co-firing methods. Direct co-firing is the cheapest option, most straightforward and commonly applied approach. The biomass is directly fed to the boiler furnace after being passed through the same mills - crushers, bunkers and pulverisers - as the coal. The biomass can be mixed with the coal in the fuel yard or can be fed to the combustion chamber separately. Multi-fuel fluidised bed boilers achieve efficiencies over 90% while flue gas emissions are lower than for conventional grate combustion due to lower combustion temperatures. In indirect co-firing, biomass is first gasified and the fuel gas is then co-fired in the main boiler. Sometimes the gas has to be cooled and cleaned, which is more challenging and implies higher operation costs. However, this approach offers a high degree of fuel flexibility. This system has been applied in a few stations, for example, Zeltweg plant
17 in Austria, the Lahti plant in Finland and the Amer 8 plant in the Netherlands. Since the gasification takes place separately the ashes from the coal and biomass are kept apart.
In residential or industrial heating applications, pellets are combusted in personal or commercial scale boilers and stoves in order to provide space heating, hot water etc.
For the liquid biomass route, pyrolysis oil/bio-crude will be processed to produce advanced biofuels. There are two potential approaches to convert pyrolysis oil into biofuels. First, pyrolysis oil is processed within a catalytic reactor together with hydrogen (H2) in order to extract the water content from the oil. As a result, refined oil that has similar characteristics to crude petroleum is produced. The refined oil can be used in existing refineries. Second, instead of directly used in existing refineries, refined oil from previous reactor is processed in a second reactor. In the second reactor, the refined oil reacts with hydrogen (H2) and the result is advanced biofuels.
For the solid biomass route, gasification technology is used to convert pre-treated solid biomass (wood pellets and torrefied pellets) into advanced biofuels. Fischer-Tropsch (FT) gasification is a technology that can potentially be used. Initially, pre-treated biomass is steamed within a gasifier in order to produce synthetic gas (syngas). Syngas consists of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrogen (H2). Char and tars are produced as by-products of the gasification process. These by-products have to be separated from syngas. Char is separated by using cyclonic separation10 whereas tars11 are processed by using specialised reactors with added catalysts to create additional syngas. During the tar processing stage, an additional cleaning process takes place in order to remove contaminants such as ammonia, sulphur, and carbon monoxide. Furthermore, syngas (including the additional syngas from tar processing) is conditioned within a gas conditioner. It is processed until it reaches a certain level of the desired CO to H2 ratio. The purpose of this process is to achieve optimal chemical reaction for the production of biofuels. Furthermore, conditioned syngas enters another reactor that contains catalysts in order to convert syngas into a liquid form. In this reactor, CO and H2 are combined to form large-sized molecules. These molecules are cooled, condensed, and refined into advanced biofuels.
10 Cyclonic separation is undertaken by utilising turbine machine to produ ce cyclone that allows to remove char
from syngas without filter.
11 If tars are not removed, they have adverse effects to reactors equipment and the quality of resulted final
18 4.2 Baseline scenario
Baseline scenario
Keyword: business as usual , import biofuels, no large investments in domestic production, focus on upstream development General scenario storyline
The baseline scenario represents the condition of bioenergy deployment pathway in accord ance to bioenergy policies in the Netherlands su ch as NREAP and Energy Agreement (‘Energieakkoord’). Until 2020, wood pellets remain the only imported biomass intermediate produ ct to meet bioenergy d emand in the electricity sector. The demand for solid biomass in electricity for co-firing is 25 PJ of final energy (‘Energieakkoord’). In 2030, the demand for co-firing is 19 PJ of final energy, which corresponds to 2.5 million tonnes. An overview of the energy from solid biomass can be found in Table 5.
Assuming that the quantity of natural gas produced in the Netherlands remains stable over the next few years, at the present rate of consumption the Netherlands has approximately twenty years’ worth of reserves in its gas fields (CBS, 2011). As a result, natural gas domestic supply is expected to be redu ced by 3.5 times compared to cu rrent use (Hekkenberg & Verdonk, 2014). The service and residential heating sectors will see little to no increase in the amount of solid biomass use, as the void in energy supply is expected to be covered through better insulation implementation and heat pump use. It is highly possible though that, in view of the countries
sustainability goals, part of the industrial sector heat demand will be met through biomass combustion (supported in the form of wood pellets through the SDE+ scheme). Bioenergy demand in the transport sector largely depends on import until 2030.
The demand of bioenergy in the heating sector is assumed at 20-25 PJ (industrial) and 2-5 PJ (residential) in 2030. These d emands will be fulfilled through wood pellet imports. The amount of wood pellets needed for industrial heating is 1.4-1.75 million tonnes whereas for residential heating is 0.14-0.35 million tonnes.
Advanced biofuels will be imported both in 2020 and 2030. In 2020, the imports of advanced biofuels will be 13 PJ and they will increase between 15 and 40 PJ in 2030.
Due to the policy to discontinue public support for the first-generation biofuels, import of second-generation biofuels will be dominant by 2030. The baseline scenario assumes that there will be no large investments to establish second generation biofuels produ ction facilities (biorefinery) within the Netherlands. It is assumed that rapid technological d evelopments for biomass conversion occur outside the Netherlands. This scenario
emphasizes on upstream sector development to secure the supply of solid biomass and biofuels. In the baseline scenario, we assume that there will no newly developed infrastru cture (e.g. terminals for loading/unloading, storage, and other transport infrastru cture) to support the import of solid biomass and bio-based final products to the Netherlands. Instead, existing facilities will be utilised and their operation will be optimised.
Table 4 Storyline of baseline/business as usual scenario
Wood Pellets
Bioenergy demand Unit 2020 2030
Co-firing12,13 PJ 25 19
Industrial heat14 PJ 20-25
Residential heat PJ 2-5
Table 5: Demand for wood pellets in 2020 and 2030 for the baseline scenario
12 Energy efficiency for electricity produ ction through cofiring between wood pellets and coal is 40% whereas co
-firing between torrefied pellets and coal is 42%
13 In 2030, it is assumed that electricity production through co-firing is met 90% by wood pellets and 10% by
torrefied pellets
19
Figure 7 Biomass imports (baseline scenario)
4.3 Promotion of advanced biofuels through thermochemical pathway
Liquid biofuels scenario
Keyword: domestic biofuels production, large investments, existing refineries, liquid biomass, pyrolysis oil/biocrude import, General scenario storyline
This scenario emphasizes on the produ ction of advanced biofuels through thermochemical conversion. In this scenario, bio-based final produ cts (e.g. methanol) are produced within the Netherlands but the feedstock is imported. Liquid biomass such as pyrolysis oil/bio crude is used as feedstock to produce advanced biofuels. The starting point of this scenario is large investments to improve the capacity of Dutch refineries. Until 2020, we assume that large investments will be encouraged to enhance existing capacity of Dutch refineries in ord er to produce advanced biofuels. While the investment to enhance produ ction capacity is undertaken, the demand of advanced biofuels is fulfilled through imports. The produ ction of bio-based final produ cts will be undertaken after 2020. The demand of advanced biofuels until 2020 is 13 PJ (Table 3). Beyond 2020, it is assumed that
conventional biofuels are not prioritised with respect to Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) that triggers conflicts with food price and food secu rity. In 2030, the demand for advanced biofuels ranges between 15 to 40 PJ. The required amount of imported pyrolysis oil ranges between 1.76 and 4.71 million tonnes Table 7.
This scenario assumes that there will be new infrastru cture development to support import of biofuels and intermediate liquid biomass products (e.g. pyrolysis oil). In principal, liquid biomass in the form of pyrolysis oil is easy to transport and has high energy d ensity. Bulk ship transport is considered as the best option for
transporting pyrolysis oil to the Netherlands (Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2013). However, new investments in large tanks both at the export and import terminals are necessary to store pyrolysis oil before it is d elivered to end users.
Table 6 Storyline of liquid biofuels scenario
Demand Unit 2020 2030
Advanced biofuels (import) PJ 13 -
Pyrolysis oil (import) PJ - 15 – 40
Pyrolysis oil (import) Mt 1.76 – 4.71
20
Figure 8 Total biomass imports (baseline & liquid biomass)
4.4 Promotion of advanced biofuels through biochemical pathway
Solid biomass scenario
Keyword: domestic biofuels production, large investments, existing refineries, solid biomass, wood pellets, torrefied pellets General scenario storyline
This scenario emphasizes domestic production of advanced biofuels (bio-based final produ cts) through biochemical conversion. The production of advanced biofuels takes place within the Netherlands but the feedstock is imported. Solid biomass in the form of wood pellets and torrefied pellets will be used as feedstock to produce advanced biofuels.
As above, the starting point of this scenario is large investments to improve the capacity of Dutch refineries. Until 2020, we assume that large investments will be encouraged to enhance existing capacity of Dutch refineries in order to produce advanced biofuels. While the investment to enhance production capacity is undertaken, the demand of advanced biofuels is fulfilled through imports. The production of bio-based final produ cts will be undertaken after 2020. The d emand of advanced biofuels until 2020 is 13 PJ (Table 3). Beyond 2020, it is assumed that conventional biofu els is not prioritised with respect to Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) that triggers conflicts with food price and food security. In 2030, the d emand for advanced biofuels ranges between 15 to 40 PJ.
Wood pellets and torrefied pellets are the main feedstock for produ cing advanced biofuels by means of Fischer-Tropsch (FT) gasification. When wood pellets are used, imports range between 1.69 and 4.52 million tonnes. In the case of torrefied pellets, imports range between 1.32 and 3.52 million Table 9.
This scenario assumes that there will be new infrastru cture development to support import of intermediate bio -based products and to support logistic services to the refineries.
Table 8 Storyline of solid biomass scenario
Demand Unit 2020 2030
Advanced biofuels (import) PJ 13 -
Imported pellets (feedstock) PJ - 15 – 40
Imported pellets (feedstock) Mtonne 1.7 – 4.5 (if using wood pellets as feedstock) 1.3 – 3.5 (if using torrefied pellets as feedstock)
21
22
Criteria Scenario
Baseline
Bio-based industry development Business as usual, no large investments in domestic conversion facilities, biofuels will be imported
Domestic biomass resources 2020 2030
Electricity Agro-residue & waste wood Agro-residue & waste wood
Industrial heat Municipal waste Manure/Slurry to gas & municipal waste
Residential heat Municipal waste Manure/Slurry to gas & municipal waste
Imported biomass intermediates
Electricity Wood pellets Wood pellets
Industrial heat - Wood pellets
Residential heat - Wood pellets
Infrastructure services Optimising existing infrastructure
Liquid biofuels scenario Solid biomass scenario
Large investments in domestic production capacity in existing refineries in the Netherlands based on liquid intermediates beyond 2020
Large investments in domestic bio refinery production in the Netherlands based on solid intermediates beyond 2020
Imported biomass intermediates 2020 2030 2020 2030
Transport / bio refinery - Pyrolysis oil/biocrude (use of existing refinery capacity) - Wood/agripellets (EtOH/FT-diesel) Torrefied pellets (FT-diesel)
Imported biofuels (bio-based final products)
Transport / bio refinery 1G & 2G biofuels - 1G & 2G biofuels -
Infrastructure services Developing new infrastructure Developing new infrastructure
23
5 Discussion
The work done is an attempt to visualize different pathways for the bioenergy development in the
Netherlands up to 2030. A multitude of sources from different sectors was used in order to reach the final form of the scenarios – European and national reports concerning and legally binding country-members to the deployment of renewable energy sources, research from energy and environmental agencies, industry experts in the field of energy, knowledge of research institutions and people in them, as well as personal knowledge acquired after several months of association with the subject.
While the landscape is pretty set for the 2020 horizon, carefully appraised assumptions had to be made for the 2030 horizon, envisioning 2 different pathways for achieving a 2nd generation biofuel production in the Netherlands. Imports up to 2030 range from 4.6 Mt of solid biomass and 4.7 Mt of pyrolysis oil to 9.1 Mt of solid biomass, depending on the alternative scenario under consideration.
As mentioned in the introduction, the work is not complete and will be subject to change, depending on new data that will be brought to the attention of the authors through the project partners’ expert opinion or major changes in the policy and energy landscape. The important role of Port of Rotterdam as a biomass hub in Northwest Europe will be explored as potential demand for bio-based products in neighbouring countries such as Belgium, Denmark and Germany will increase as well. More specifically, the document will be complimented with information concerning the throughput of biomass through the Netherlands destined to neighbouring countries (Belgium, Denmark, Germany) for co-firing or heating purposes, as well as the supply side of the feedstock chain (Southeast US, Canada).
The main challenge is the costs of logistic operations throughout the chain. It may contribute up to 50% of the total bioenergy production costs. It is important therefore to design optimised supply chains where logistic costs can be minimised, as well as achieving economies of scale in the Port of Rotterdam.
Optimised supply chains are beneficial not only for fulfilling demand within the Netherlands but also for capturing prospective market possibilities in Northwest European countries.
While the document may not be 100% complete, the bioenergy development concerning the Netherlands is presented and constitutes a most useful big first step to approach the situation in the country as far as biomass imports are concerned. This work will be of crucial importance to shaping future research within the BioLogiKNL project.
24
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Appendix: Demand calculation for solid and liquid biomass for existing scenarios
Solid biomass
Table 11 and Table 12 show the volume of solid biomass needed in 2020 and 2030 for the baseline scenario. In the electricity sector, the volume of wood pellets needed for co-firing in 2020, broken down per functioning power plant outfitted for co-firing, can be seen in detail in Table 13. The data on the capacities and co-firing percentages derive from personal communication with industry experts and estimates of power plant operators. Total co-firing needs in PJ of final energy is 24.9, per the 25 PJ cap of the Energy Agreement.
In general, the volume of solid biomass needed increases from 3.3 million tonnes to 4 million tonnes by 2030, attributed to the increased biomass demand in the heating sector.
Demand for solid biomass Unit 2013 2020 2030
Co-firing PJe 6.5 25 19
Combustion PJth 18.4 27 69
Table 11 Demand for solid biomass for energy production (Corbey, 2014; NREAP, 2010; Hekkenberg & Verdonk, 2014)
Wood Pellets
Bioenergy demand Unit 2020 2030
Co-firing Mt 3.3 2.5
Industrial heat Mt 1.4
Residential heat Mt 0.14
Total 3.3 4
Table 12 Volume of imported solid biomass in form of wood pellets for the baseline scenario
Capacity Capacity Capacity Co-firing Co-firing Biomass Biomass Power plant [MWe] [MWh] [PJ] [%] [PJ] [PJ] [Mt]
Amer Unit 9 600 5.3*106 18.9 30 5.7 12.6 0.7 Eemshaven Unit A 800 7*106 25.2 10 2.5 5.6 0.3 Eemshaven Unit B 800 7*106 25.2 10 2.5 5.6 0.3 Hemweg Unit HW8 630 5.5*106 19.9 15 3 6.6 0.4 Maasvlakte 3 1050 9.2*106 33.1 20 6.6 14.7 0.9 GDF Suez 731 6.4*106 23.1 20 4.6 10.2 0.6 Total 4611 4*107 145.4 - 24.9 55.4 3.3
Table 13 Co-firing and biomass demand breakdown per plant
Table 14 shows the volume of solid biomass for the solid biomass imports scenario for advanced biofuels demand in 2030. The volume of solid biomass needed to fulfil the demand depends on the feedstock for FT synthesis. Depending on the energy carrier in the transport sector, if wood pellets are used as the feedstock for FT synthesis, the volume of imported solid biomass needed ranges between 1.69 million tonnes and 4.52 million tonnes. In the case of torrefied pellets, the volume of imported pellets needed ranges between 1.32 million tonnes and 3.52 million tonnes.
27
Advanced biofuels demand based on Ceuelenaere et
al. 2014 Advanced biofuels demand based on EVN Imported solid biomass for FT Gasification15 Unit C-2030 (Scenario 1) (Scenario C-2030 2) C-2030 (Scenario 3) C-2030 (Scenario 4) M-2030 (Adopted Policies) (Proposed M-2030 Policies) Wood pellets16 Mt 4.52 1.69 1.69 1.69 4.03 4.03 Torrefied pellets17 Mt 3.52 1.32 1.32 1.32 3.15 3.15
Table 14 Volume of imported solid biomass for advanced biofuels in the solid biomass import scenario
Figure 10 Total biomass demand (baseline & solid biomass scenario)
15 FT gasification is assumed to have energy efficiency by 50% LHV (net calorific valu e) by implementing pressured
gasification system (Tijmensen, Faaij, Hamelinck, & Van H ardeveld, 2002).
16 LHV value for wood pellets is 17.7 MJ kg-1 (Deutmeyer et al., 2012) 17 LHV value for torrefied pellets is 22.7 MJ kg-1 (Deutmeyer et al., 2012)
28 Liquid biomass
Table 15 shows the volume of imported liquid biomass in 2030 for the liquid biomass import scenario. The volume of liquid biomass varies in accordance to the energy carrier in the transport sector. Depending on the scenario, the volume of imported liquid biomass in the form of pyrolysis oil ranges between 1.76 million tonnes and 4.71 million tonnes.
Advanced biofuels demand based on Ceuelenaere et al. 2014 Advanced biofuels demand based on EVN
Imported liquid biomass for FT Gasification Unit C-2030 (Scenario 1) (Scenario C-2030 2) C-2030 (Scenario 3) C-2030 (Scenario 4) M-2030 (Adopted Policies) (Proposed M-2030 Policies) Pyrolysis oil18 Mt 4.71 1.76 1.76 1.76 4.20 4.20
Table 15 Volume of imported liquid biomass for advanced biofuels in liquid biomass scenario
Imported advanced biofuels
In general, in both the liquid and solid biomass scenario, advanced biofuels will be imported until 2020. An exceptional case concerns the baseline scenario which assumes that advanced biofuels will be imported until 2030. Table 16 shows the imports of advanced biofuels in 2020 and 2030. Imported advanced biofuels increase from 0.54 ktoe (2020) to between 0.63 and 1.67 ktoe (2030) in the baseline scenario, which corresponds to 0.95-1.1 kt (2020) and 1.1-3.5 kt (2030) depending on the advanced biofuel in question (bioethanol, biodiesel or methanol)18.
NREAP Ceuelenaere et al. 2014 Advanced biofuels demand based on EVN
Unit 2020 C-2030 (Scenario 1) C-2030 (Scenario 2) C-2030 (Scenario 3) C-2030 (Scenario 4) M-2030 (Adopted
Policies) M-2030 (Proposed Policies) Advanced biofuels
imports
ktoe 0.54 1.67 0.63 0.63 0.63 1.49 1.49
kt 0.95-1.1 2.9-3.5 1.1-1.3 1.1-1.3 1.1-1.3 2.6-3.1 2.6-3.1
Table 16 Volume of imported advanced biofuels
An overview of the total imports in the Netherlands, both in wood pellets and pyrolysis oil can be found in Table 17.
Wood Pellets Torrefied Pellets Pyrolysis oil Scenarios Unit 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030
Baseline Mt 3.3 4-4.6 - - - -
Biofuels from solid biomass A Mt - 1.7-4.5 - - - -
Biofuels from solid biomass B Mt - - - 1.3-3.5 - -
Biofuels from liquid biomass Mt - - - 1.8-4.7
Total solid biomass imports [Mt] 3.3 5.7-9.1 3.3 5.3-8.1 - -
Total liquid biomass imports [Mt] - - - - - 1.8-4.7
Table 17 Total biomass imports per scenario
18 LHV for pyrolysis oil is 17 MJ kg-1 (Deutmeyer et al., 2012)
