4 [53]

(1)

4 ^[53]

2017

(2)

Komitet Naukowy/Scientific Committee:

Prof. dr hab. inż. Jerzy Żuchowski, Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Humanistyczny w Radomiu – przewodniczący Komitetu Naukowego

Prof. dr Tom Bramorski, University of Wisconsin, Whitewater, USA

Prof. dr Horst Brezinski, Technische Universität-Bergakademie, Freiberg, Niemcy/Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

Prof. dr Pasquale Giungato, University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Bari, Włochy Prof. dr Marcel Mayor, University of Basel, Szwajcaria

Prof. dr Mitsuharu Mitsui, Okayama University, Okayama, Japonia Prof. dr hab. Marian W. Sułek, Instytut Chemii Przemysłowej, Warszawa Prof. dr hab. inż. Ryszard Zieliński, Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu Redaktorzy Naczelni/Editors in Chief:

Dr hab. inż. Tomasz Wasilewski, prof. UTH, Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Humanistyczny w Radomiu Prof. dr hab. inż. Ryszard Zieliński, Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

Redaktorzy Tematyczni/Subject Editors:

Towaroznawstwo kosmetyków i produktów chemii gospodarczej – dr hab. inż. Tomasz Wasilewski, prof. UTH

Towaroznawstwo opakowań – prof. dr hab. Małgorzata Lisińska-Kuśnierz Towaroznawstwo przemysłowe – prof. dr hab. inż. Ryszard Zieliński Towaroznawstwo żywności – prof. dr hab. Maria Śmiechowska Zarządzanie jakością – prof. dr hab. inż. Jerzy Żuchowski

Towaroznawstwo wyrobów tekstylnych i odzieżowych, bezpieczeństwo produktów nieżywnościowych – dr hab. inż. Renata Salerno-Kochan, prof. nadzw. UE

Redaktor Statystyczny/Statistical Editor:

Dr hab. Andrzej Sokołowski, prof. UEK Komitet Redakcyjny/Editorial Board:

Dr Anita Bocho-Janiszewska, Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Humanistyczny w Radomiu Prof. dr Pasquale Giungato, Uniwersytet w Bari, “Aldo Moro”

Dr inż. Emilia Klimaszewska, Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Humanistyczny w Radomiu Dr hab. Małgorzata Lotko, Prof. Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Humanistyczny w Radomiu Dr inż. Anna Małysa, Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Humanistyczny w Radomiu

Dr inż. Małgorzata Zięba, Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Humanistyczny w Radomiu Adres Komitetu Redakcyjnego

Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Humanistyczny, ul. Chrobrego 27, 26-600 Radom, tel. (48) 361-75-39; e-mail: tpj@uthrad.pl, www.tpj.uniwersytetradom.pl

Redakcja czasopisma „Towaroznawcze Problemy Jakości” informuje, że formą referencyjną czasopisma jest wersja drukowana.

Publikacje można nadsyłać na adres Komitetu Redakcyjnego ISSN 1733-747X

Wydawcy:

 Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Humanistyczny im. K. Pułaskiego, ul. Malczewskiego 29, 26-600 Radom

 Instytut Technologii Eksploatacji – PIB, ul. K. Pułaskiego 6/10, 26-600 Radom Opracowanie wydawnicze: Joanna Iwanowska, Iwona Nitek

Wydawnictwo

ul. Malczewskiego 20A, 26-600 Radom, tel. centr. (48) 361-70-33, fax (48) 361-70-34 e-mail: przypis@poczta.onet.pl http://www.uniwersytetradom.pl

Wydawnictwo Naukowe Instytutu Technologii Eksploatacji – PIB

ul. K. Pułaskiego 6/10, 26-600 Radom, tel. centr. (48) 364-42-41, fax (48) 364-47-65 e-mail: instytut@itee.radom.pl http://www.itee.radom.pl

(3)

TOWAROZNAWCZE PROBLEMY JAKOŚCI 4(53)/2017

Spis treści

Przedmowa ... 7 Szymon Janiszewski: Wskaźnik kredytów ze stwierdzoną utratą wartości

jako determinanta jakości portfela kredytowego ... 13 Magdalena Niewczas-Dobrowolska: Konsumenci żywności – typologia

i postawy ... 22 Ryszard Żywica, Stefan S. Smoczyński, Joanna K. Banach,

Monika Modzelewska-Kapituła: Techniki i technologie w zapewnieniu

bezpieczeństwa zdrowotnego żywności ... 33 Mariusz Tichoniuk: Elektrochemiczne sensory do szybkiej detekcji patogenów

obecnych w produktach spożywczych ... 42 Agnieszka Palka, Paulina Karczmarczyk: Ocena jakości sorbetów

truskawkowych dostępnych na polskim rynku ... 54 Millena Ruszkowska, Przemysław Dmowski: Ocena jakości herbat czarnych

– w oparciu o charakterystykę właściwości higroskopijnych wyznaczonych

metodą statyczną ... 61 Barbara Krochmal-Marczak, Barbara Sawicka, Anna Kiełtyka-Dadasiewicz:

Właściwości kulinarne wybranych odmian ziemniaka w zależności

od przechowywania ... 72 Jędrzej Knot, Władysław Kędzior: Wpływ doświadczeń spożywczych

konsumentów na akceptację innowacyjnych wyrobów cukierniczych ... 82 Inna Pakhomova, Alina Tkachenko: Wpływ opakowania na zachowanie

jakości nowych wafli i możliwości przewidywania ich trwałości ... 91 Ryszard Cierpiszewski, Mariusz Tichoniuk, Natalia Radomska:

Wykorzystanie wskaźnika świeżości do oceny stopnia zepsucia ryb w układzie

modelowym i w gotowych opakowaniach ... 103

(4)

Lidia Kurp, Marzena Danowska-Oziewicz, Beata Anna Loba, Mirosława Karpińska-Tymoszczyk, Anna Draszanowska,

Katarzyna Eufemia Przybyłowicz: Ocena porównawcza wybranych ketchupów

dostępnych w handlu detalicznym ... 118 Natalia Żak, Aleksandra Wilczyńska, Piotr Przybyłowski: Identyfikacja

barwy miodu jako ważny parametr oceny jakości ... 127 Paweł Turek: Możliwości wykorzystania modyfikacji barwy kremu a ogólna

jakość sensoryczna ... 139 Mirosława Kamińska, Ryszard Zieliński: Właściwości reologiczne i kosmetyczne żeli zawierających sok z aloesu (Aloe vera) ... 148 Artur Wolak, Grzegorz Zając: Analiza zmian lepkości dynamicznej olejów

silnikowych w warunkach eksploatacji. Część 1 ... 160 Informacje ... 172

(5)

Katarzyna Eufemia Przybyłowicz: Comparative assessment of selected ketchups available in retail trade... 118 Natalia Żak, Aleksandra Wilczyńska, Piotr Przybyłowski: Colour identification as an important quality parameter of honey ... 127 Paweł Turek: Color modification of the face cream and its general sensory

Quality... 139 Mirosława Kamińska, Ryszard Zieliński: Rheological and cosmetic

properties of gels containing Aloe vera juice ... 148 Artur Wolak, Grzegorz Zając: Appraisal of the dynamic viscosity

of synthetic oils used under similar operating conditions. Part 1 ... 160 Information ... 172

(7)

P r z e d m o w a

Zgodnie z przyjętym przez Kolegium Redakcyjne długoterminowym planem wy- dawniczym w pierwszych dniach października 2017 roku oddajemy do rąk Państwa – naszych czytelników – pięćdziesiąty trzeci numer kwartalnika Towaroznawcze Problemy Jakości (Polish Journal of Commodity Science). Kontynuując próby rozszerzenia grona naszych czytelników, wszystkie artykuły publikujemy w angielskiej wersji językowej. Jednocześnie przypominamy, że obecnie redakcja kwartalnika przyjmuje do publikacji artykuły przygotowane wyłącznie w języku angielskim. Tak jak poprzednio, każdy artykuł zawiera ob- szerne streszczenie zarówno w języku polskim, jak i angielskim. Streszczenia wszystkich prac opublikowanych na łamach kwartalnika w obydwu wersjach językowych dostępne są również na stronie internetowej naszego czasopisma pod adresem: http://www.tpj.uniwersytetradom.pl.

Ponadto, obecnie na stronie internetowej dostępne są w formule open-access pełne wersje wszystkich artykułów opublikowane na łamach naszego czasopisma do roku 2016 włącznie.

Serię 15 artykułów obecnego wydania naszego czasopisma otwiera praca Janiszewskiego dotycząca jakości portfeli kredytowych. Analizowano wskaźnik kredytów zagrożonych w przypadku zagregowanych portfeli kredytów dla gospodarstw domowych, konsumenckich i hipotecznych w polskim sektorze bankowym. Wyniki porównano z prognozami makroekonomicznymi instytucji nadzorczych, potwierdzając użyteczność wskaźnika jako determinanty jakości portfela kredytowego.

Kolejna praca Niewczas-Dobrowolskiej dotyczy czynników wpływających na zachowanie konsumentów oraz ich postawy wobec nowości na rynku żywności. Dzięki wyróżnieniu pewnych cech zachowań konsumentów można ich pogrupować w pewne typy. W pracy przedstawiono wyniki badań ankietowych przeprowadzonych wśród studentów trzech polskich wyższych uczelni. Stwierdzono, iż studenci charakteryzują się niską postawą braku akceptacji nowości wśród żywności.

W kolejnej pracy Żywica i współautorzy omawiają zagadnienie roli techniki i technologii w zapewnieniu bezpieczeństwa zdrowotnego żywności. W pracy podkreślono, że jakość żywności może być kreowana przez wykorzystanie odpowiednich urządzeń technicznych stosowane podczas pozyskiwania surowców roślinnych i zwierzęcych, podczas różnych zabiegów utrwalania żywności z wykorzystaniem niskich oraz wysokich temperatur.

Jednocześnie Autorzy wskazują na czynniki technologiczne, które mogą obniżyć jakość żywności.

Jednym z czynników określających poziom bezpieczeństwa żywności są informacje o zagrożeniach wynikających z zanieczyszczeń mikrobiologicznych. W swojej pracy Tichoniuk omawia rozwijane obecnie szybkie alternatywne metody detekcji tej grupy za- nieczyszczeń żywności oparte na technikach sensorowych służących do oceny zmian właściwości elektrycznych środowiska, w którym rozwijają się drobnoustroje, wykorzystujących sensory do wykrywania obecności mikroorganizmów lub produktów ich metabolizmu oraz biosensory hybrydyzacji kwasów nukleinowych rozpoznających sekwencje specyficzne dla patogenów. W artykule zaprezentowano możliwości biosensora należącego do tej ostatniej grupy.

W kolejnej pracy Palki i Kaczmarczyk przedstawiono wyniki badań własnych dotyczących oceny jakości sorbetów truskawkowych dostępnych na polskim rynku. Przedstawiono wyniki badań parametrów fizykochemicznych oraz wyniki oceny sensorycznej. Stwierdzono duże zróżnicowanie badanych sorbetów pod względem wyróżników fizykochemicznych oraz organoleptycznych.

Herbata stanowi jeden z najczęściej spożywanych napojów na świecie. Przedmiotem kolejnej pracy jest ocena jakości herbat czarnych dokonana na podstawie pomiarów ich

(8)

właściwości higroskopowych. Stosując metodę statyczną Ruszkowska i Dmowski stwierdzili, że wyższą trwałością przechowalniczą charakteryzowały się herbaty z Indonezji i Sri Lanki, co prawdopodobnie jest wynikiem różnic w mikrostrukturze powierzchni surowca herbacianego z tego regionu oraz parametrami procesu jego suszenia.

Krochmal-Marczak i współautorki przedstawiają wyniki badań własnych dotyczących właściwości kulinarnych kilku odmian ziemniaków uprawianych w systemie ekologicznym.

Stwierdzono, że bulwy tych ziemniaków charakteryzują się bardzo dobrym cechami sensorycznymi i odpornością na ciemnienie miąższu surowego i po ugotowaniu. Wykazano, że przechowywanie bulw przyczynia się do pogorszenia cech sensorycznych oraz zwiększa tendencję do rozgotowywania się i ciemnienia bulw surowych, a także bulw ugotowanych.

W kolejnej pracy Knot i Kędzior omawiają zagadnienie akceptacji innowacyjnych wyrobów cukierniczych przez konsumentów. W pracy badano wpływ dotychczasowych doświadczeń kulinarnych konsumentów na zdolność do akceptacji nietypowych produktów żywnościowych. Autorzy wydzielili spośród konsumentów na dwie grupy: tych o nietypowych doświadczeniach kulinarnych i osoby bez takich doświadczeń. Stwierdzono, że pierwsza grupa osób w większym stopniu jest skłonna zaakceptować innowacyjne wyroby cukiernicze testowane podczas opisywanych w pracy badań.

Kolejne dwie prace dotyczą zagadnienia trwałości żywności. W pierwszej z nich Pakhomova i Tkachenko omawiają wpływ rodzaju stosowanego opakowania na zachowanie jakości przechowywanych produktów. W pracy omówiono wpływ różnych opakowań na zapewnienia jakości produktów na przykładzie różnych opakowań do nowych wafli. Na podstawie przeprowadzonych badań własnych zaproponowano możliwości przewidywania trwałości tych wyrobów.

Tematem drugiej z nich jest ocena stopnia zepsucia ryb w opakowania. W tym celu Cierpiszewski, Tichoniuk i Radomska przedstawiają wyniki badań własnych dotyczących możliwości zastosowania innowacyjnego rozwiązania w postaci nowego chemicznego wskaź- nika, którego zadaniem jest ciągłe monitorowanie zmian świeżości ryb pakowanych.

W wyniku przeprowadzonych badań skorelowano aktywność opracowanego wskaźnika świeżości ryb z właściwościami sensorycznymi przechowywanych produktów oraz stopniem ich skażenia mikrobiologicznego.

Kurp i współautorzy prezentują wyniki badań własnych dotyczących jakości ketchupów dostępnych w handlu detalicznym. W pracy przedstawiono wyniki pomiarów różnych wskaźników fizykochemicznych oraz oceny sensorycznej ketchupów. Wykazano, że badane ketchupy różniły się pod względem wskaźników sensorycznych oraz barwy i jej parametrów, zawartości wody, zawartości likopenu oraz karotenoidów ogółem.

Przedmiotem badań Żak i współautorów jest zagadnienie jakości i autentyczności miodu.

W pracy badano barwę miodu na drodze oceny sensorycznej oraz stosują metodę spektrometrii refleksyjnej Minolta Chromameter. Ponadto dokonano porównania wpływu tła (białe, szare, czarne) na dokładność otrzymywanych wyników pomiarów. Na podstawie analizy 24 próbek miodów polskich o różnym pochodzeniu botanicznym stwierdzono, że poszczególne odmiany miodów różnią się barwą w sposób istotny.

Kolejne dwie prace dotyczą oceny wybranych wyróżników jakości wyrobów kosmetycznych. W pierwszej z nich Turek omawia możliwości wykorzystania modyfikacji barwy kremów kosmetycznych w kreowaniu pozytywnego odbioru jakości wyrobu. W pracy przedstawiono wyniki eksperymentu konsumenckiego, w którym najpierw kremy poddano ocenie sensorycznej, a następnie tym produktom, które zostały najniżej ocenione zmieniono barwę w taki sposób, aby była ona zbliżona do barwy produktów najwyżej ocenionych.

Okazało się, że tak zmodyfikowane kremy kosmetyczne otrzymały wyższe oceny sensoryczne.

(9)

W drugiej z nich Kamińska i Zieliński przedstawiają wyniki badań własnych dotyczących właściwości reologicznych i kosmetycznych żeli kosmetycznych o różnej zawartości soku z aloesu. Zaobserwowano, że pod względem reologicznym badane żele z dodatkiem soku z aloesu wykazują właściwości układów pseudoplastycznych. Stwierdzono, że dodatek soku z aloesu do żeli kosmetycznych prowadzi do poprawy niektórych parametrów sensorycznych żeli takich jak rozprowadzalność żelu na skórze oraz stopień wygładzenia skóry. Stwierdzono także wzrost wartości wskaźników korneometrycznych i tewametrycznych.

W ostatniej pracy Wolak i Zając przedstawiają wyniki badań eksploatacyjnych olejów silnikowych. Autorzy określali zmiany lepkości dynamicznej olejów silnikowych występujące podczas rzeczywistej eksploatacji silników spalinowych. Stwierdzono, że uzyskane wyniki mogą być pomocne przy podejmowania racjonalnych decyzji dotyczących okresu eksploatacji stosowanych olejów silnikowych.

Pięćdziesiąty trzeci numer naszego kwartalnika zamyka stała rubryka „Informacje TPJ”.

Zamieszczono w niej informacje o kolejnej konferencji towaroznawczej, która odbędzie się w Radomiu 11–13 czerwca 2018 roku.

Życzę Państwu przyjemnej lektury.

Redaktor TPJ

prof. dr hab. inż. Ryszard Zieliński

(10)

(11)

P r e f a c e

According to the long-term plan accepted by the Editorial Board, in the first days of October 2017 we present to our readers the 53rd issue of the Polish Journal of Commodity Science. Continuing the efforts to widen the group of our readers all the papers are published in English. We would like to remind that now, only papers written in English are accepted by the editors. As before, each paper contains a wide summary in Polish and English. The summaries in both language versions of all the works published one can find on our web page http://www.tpj.uniwersytetradom.pl. Moreover, at the web page an open-access to all the papers published up to 2016 is offered.

The series of 15 papers in the current issue of our quarterly is opened with work by Janiszewski on the quality of credit portfolio. Author analysed the non-performing loans ratio of aggregated household, consumers and mortgage credits portfolios in the Polish banking system and compared the numerical results with macro forecast prepared by regulatory institutions. The analysis confirmed the usability of the ratio as the determinant of portfolio quality.

The consecutive work by Niewczas-Dobrowolska deals with factors influencing the behavior of consumers and their attitudes towards novelty in the food market. By distinguishing certain characteristics of consumers behavior, they can be grouped into certain types. The paper presents the results of questionnaire surveys conducted among students of three Polish universities. It was found that students were characterized by a low food neophobia.

In the next article Żywica et al. discuss the role of technical possibilities and technology in ensuring food safety. It was emphasized that food quality could be created through the application of appropriate technical equipment of acquisition of plant and animal raw materials and various food-preservation techniques using low and high temperatures. Authors also point out technological factors that can reduce the quality of food.

An important determinant of food safety is information on the dangers of microbial contamination. Tichoniuk discusses the fast-growing alternatives of detecting this group of food contaminants, based on sensor techniques for assessing changes in the electrical properties of the environment in which microbes grow. These techniques employ sensors to detect the presence of microorganisms or their metabolic products, and nucleic acid hybridization biosensors that recognize pathogen-specific sequences. The article presents the capabilities of a certain biosensor belonging to the latter group.

In the next paper Palka and Kaczmarek discuss the results of research on quality evaluation of strawberry sorbet available on the Polish market. The results of physicochemical tests and sensory evaluation were presented. A great diversity of examined sorbets in terms of physicochemical and organoleptic characteristics was observed.

Tea is one of the most widely consumed beverages in the world. The aim of the next work is to evaluate the quality of black tea on the basis of measurements of its hygroscopic properties. Using the static method, Ruszkowska and Dmowski found that tea from Indonesia and Sri Lanka were characterized by a higher storage stability, which is probably due to differences in the surface microstructure of the tea from the region and the drying process parameters.

Krochmal-Marczak et al. present the results of research on the culinary characteristics of several potato cultivars farmed in the ecological system. It was found that the tubers of these potatoes had a very good sensory characteristics and resistance to darkening of raw and boiled pulp. It was also shown that storage of tubers contributed to the deterioration of sensory characteristics and increased the tendency for overcooking and darkening of raw and boiled tubers.

In the consecutive paper, Knot and Kędzior discuss the issue of acceptance of innovative confectionery products by consumers. The influence of past consumer experiences on the

(12)

ability to accept non-typical food products was investigated. The authors separated two groups of consumers: those with untypical culinary experiences and those without such experiences.

It was found that the first group of people more likely accepted innovative confectionery products tested during the research.

The next two papers are devoted to food sustainability. In the first one, Pakhomova and Tkachenko discuss the impact of the type of packaging used on preserving the quality of stored products. The impact of different packaging on product quality assurance was investigated in the case study of different packaging for new wafers. On the basis of the tests performed, the possibility of predicting the products durability was proposed.

The second one deals with assessment of the degree of fish spoilage in packaging.

Cierpiszewski, Tichoniuk and Radomska present the results of their research on the possibility of using an innovative solution in the form of a new chemical indicator, whose task is to continuously monitor the freshness of packaged fish. As a result of the research, the activity of developed fish freshness index was correlated with the sensory properties of the stored products and the degree of their microbial contamination.

Kurp et al. present their research on the quality of ketchup available in retail stores. The paper presents the results of measurements of various physico-chemical indicators and sensory evaluation of ketchup. It was shown that the test ketchups differed in terms of sensory indices, color and its parameters, water content, lycopene content and total carotenoids.

The subject of research by Żak et al. is the issue of quality and authenticity of honey. The honey color was investigated by sensory evaluation and application of Minolta Chromameter reflective spectrometry. In addition, the background effect (white, gray, black) on the accuracy of the measured results was assessed. Based on the analysis of 24 samples of Polish honey of different botanical origin, it was found that the different types of honey differ significantly in color.

The next two papers concern the evaluation of selected quality attributes of cosmetic products. In the first one, Turek discusses the possibility of using cosmetic cream color modification in creating positive reception of product quality. The results of a consumer experiment in which the creams were first subjected to sensory evaluation and then the lowest rated products were changed to match the color of the highest rated products are presented. It turned out that creams modified in this way received higher sensory scores.

In the second one, Kamińska and Zieliński present their research results on rheological and cosmetic properties of cosmetic gels with different content of aloe vera juice. It was observed that rheologically tested gels with aloe vera juice exhibited the properties of pseudoplastic systems. It was found that the addition of aloe vera juice to cosmetic gels led to an improvement in some sensory parameters of gels such as the spreadability and the degree of skin smoothening. Also an increase in the value of corneometric and tewammetric indicators was observed.

In the last paper Wolak and Zając present the results of operational research on engine oils.

The authors determined changes in dynamic viscosity of engine oils occurring during the actual operation of internal combustion engines. It was found that the results obtained could be helpful in making rational decisions regarding the life of used engine oils.

The 53rd issue of the quarterly is closed by the column „TPJ Announcements”. One can find there information on the conference on commodity science to be held in Radom, 11-13 June 2018.

I wish you a nice reading

PJCS Editor

Prof. dr hab. inż. Ryszard Zieliński

(13)

Szymon JANISZEWSKI

University of Technology and Humanities in Radom Faculty of Computer Science and Mathematics

Non-performing loans ratio as the quality determinant of credit portfolio

Received: July 19, 2017: Accepted: September 18, 2017 DOI: 10.19202/j.cs.2017.04.01

Key words: portfolio quality, mortgage loans, non-performing loans, ARMA model.

Słowa kluczowe: jakość portfela, kredyt hipoteczny, kredyt ze stwierdzoną utratą wartości, model ARMA.

1. Introduction

Financial stability is a crucial factor of sustainable economic growth. Financial supervisory authorities around the world pay more and more attention to the stability of whole sectors and institutions. Banks and credit institutions require direct supervision based on consistent and unequivocal criteria. These criteria are being formulated on both national and international levels. In Europe the crucial role in the financial policymaking is played by the European Central Bank (ECB), which claims that addressing asset quality issues is one of its key priorities. The ECB’s focus on this issue began with the 2014 comprehensive assessment, which comprised two main pillars – an asset quality review and stress tests [1]. On the national level, the quality of credit portfolios in banks and financial institutions is supervised by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (Komisja Nadzoru Finansowego, KNF), which quarterly publishes reports and relevant data for the whole sector (monthly) [2].

In general, the adjective quality applies to objects and refers to the degree to which a set of inherent

characteristics fulfils a set of requirements [3]. Therefore, the quality of the loan portfolio can be measured and assessed in several ways. One can take into consideration the portfolio profitability, its risk (often measured as the probability of default, variance of the return rate or other credit risk indicators) [4], hedge level (loan to value ratio) or (last, but not least) – the way the underlying loans are paid. The latter can be precisely quantitatively determined using the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio which, in turn, can be treated as a proxy for the economy-wide probability of default of the banking sector’s overall loan exposure [5].

The ECB adopts the definition of non-performing loans established in the EBA Implementing Technical Standard (ITS) on Supervisory Reporting (Forbearance and non-performing exposures) [6]. According to this definition, non-performing loans are loans other than held for trading that satisfy either or both of the following criteria:

(a) material loans which are more than 90 days past-due;

(b) the debtor is assessed as unlikely to pay its credit obligations in full without realisation of collateral, regardless of the existence of any past-due amount or of the number of days past due.

Therefore, non-performing loans include defaulted and impaired loans.

The non-performing loans ratio will be defined as the quotient: non-performing loans divided by total loans. The ratio level can be explained in terms of two groups of factors: internal

(14)

(specific for particular bank or portfolio) and exogenous – overall macroeconomic conditions [7, 8]. Various internal determinants, such as bad management, skimping [9], excess lending and many others have been studied, but it turns out that the influence of these factors on NPLs is not as significant as one could expect. On the other hand, there is a strong empirical evidence on substantial influence of macroeconomic variables: GDP, unemployment, inflation, exchange rates etc [9, 10]. In the banking literature the NPL has often been revisited [12], but there is no standardized approach to analyse the factors influencing the parameter [7]. Louzis et al. [7] employed a panel model to examine the determinants of non-performing loans in the Greek banking sector separately for each loan category (consumer loans, business loans and mortgages) and concluded that NPLs in the Greek banking system can be explained mainly by macroeconomic variables (GDP, unemployment, interest rates, public debt). The purpose of the study by Makri et al. [13] was to identify the factors affecting the non- performing loans rate of Eurozone’s banking systems for the period 2000–2008, just before the beginning of the recession. Their study revealed strong correlations between NPL and various macroeconomic (public debt, unemployment, annual percentage growth rate of gross domestic product) and bank-specific (capital adequacy ratio, rate of non-performing loans of the previous year and return on equity) factors. Ranjan and Dhal [12] explored an empirical approach to the analysis of commercial banks' non-performing loans in the Indian context. The empirical results from panel regression models suggested that terms of credit variables had significant effect on the banks' non-performing loans in the presence of bank size induced risk preferences and macroeconomic shocks. Klein [10] investigated the non-performing loans in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe in the period of 1998–2011 and found that the level of NPL could be attributed to both macroeconomic conditions and banks’ specific factors, though the latter set of factors was found to have a relatively low explanatory power.

Throughout this paper the non-performing loans ratio will be discussed as a tool for assessment of the quality of the loan portfolio. The purpose of the work is to show that the ratio itself has a high informative and prognostic value and its analysis leads to the conclusions that are consistent with complex investigation of quality, based on various determinants. The NPL ratio will be analysed for the whole Polish banking sector (hence it will be based on the aggregated data), for the following credit portfolios: mortgage, household and consumer. The analysis will be performed over the years 2010–2017, quarterly.

2. Numerical 2.1. Modelling

The data on credits portfolios were obtained from the KNF database. The macroeconomic parameters are available at the Central Statistical Office of Poland (Główny Urząd Statystyczny, GUS) webpage [14]. The runs of non-performing loans ratio in the Polish banking system are presented in Fig. 1. The three lines represent non-performing loans ratio of household (NPL_h), consumer (NPL_c) and mortgage (NPL_m) loans. The NPL_c ratio attains significantly higher values than the other quotients. Its 7-years mean is 15.1%, while the mean of npl_h is 6.9% and npl_m – 2.7%. It is well recognized that mortgage loans belong to the best-paid credits: they are long-term and secured on the borrower property (usually a house or flat). On the other hand – the consumers loans are not so well secured and short term. This results in much worse payment of the debt. The household loans are a wider group that contains both: consumer and mortgage loans. That is why NPL_h lies between the remaining two.

The mortgage non-performing loans ratio attained its maximum in 2015, after the considerable jump of PLN/CHF exchange rate (foreign currency mortgage form a significant segment of the market). The consumer NPL reached its maximal value in 2011, while NPL_h

(15)

remained at higher, almost constant level in 2010–2013, then slightly dropped. The long-term trends of household and consumers NPLs are decreasing. To the contrary – the long-term run of mortgage NPL slightly increases – the three lines seem to converge (see Fig. 2).

.00 .04 .08 .12 .16 .20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

NPL_H NPL_C NPL_M

Fig. 1. Non-performing loans ratio of household, consumer and mortgage loans Source: Polish Financial Supervision Authority.

Rys. 1. Wskaźniki kredytów ze stwierdzoną utratą wartości portfeli kredytów dla gospodarstw domowych, konsumpcyjnych i hipotecznych

Źródło: Urząd Komisji Nadzoru Finansowego.

.00 .04 .08 .12 .16 .20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

HP_NPL_H HP_NPL_C HP_NPL_M

Fig. 2. Hodrick-Prescott long-term trends of on-performing loans ratio of household, consumer and mortgage loans

Rys. 2. Długoterminowe trendy wskaźników kredytów ze stwierdzoną utratą wartości portfeli kredytów dla gospodarstw domowych, konsumpcyjnych i hipotecznych

As far as the variability is concerned, the relationship is as follows: standard deviation of NPL_c equals 2.5%, NPL_m – 0.5% and NPL_h – 0.5%. Therefore, the variability of consumer loans in the analysed period is much higher than the remaining two.

(16)

In order to analyse and forecast the NPL ratio the following, general class of models was proposed:

𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁(𝑡𝑡) = 𝑐𝑐 + � 𝜑𝜑𝑖𝑖𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁(𝑡𝑡 − 𝑖𝑖)

𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖=1

+ � 𝜃𝜃𝑖𝑖𝜀𝜀(𝑡𝑡 − 𝑖𝑖)

𝑛𝑛 𝑖𝑖=1

+ � � 𝛾𝛾𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑋𝑋𝑖𝑖(𝑡𝑡 − 𝑖𝑖)

𝑞𝑞 𝑖𝑖=1 𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖=1

+ 𝜀𝜀(𝑡𝑡),

where 𝑡𝑡 ∈ {1, … ,29} stands for the consecutive number of the quarter in the investigated period 2010–2017, NPL(t) is the non-performing loans ratio at time instant t, 𝑋𝑋𝑖𝑖(𝑡𝑡) represent macroeconomic and internal variables (GDP, unemployment, PLN-CHF exchange rate, their components deseasonalised with the Hodrick-Prescott filter, portfolio volumes, total assets and savings) and 𝜀𝜀(𝑡𝑡) is the white noise. Each model is characterized by its parameters:

c – constant, m – the order of autoregression (AR), 𝜑𝜑𝑖𝑖 – coefficients of autoregression, n – the order of moving average (MA) model, 𝜃𝜃𝑖𝑖 – MA model coefficients, q – the number of other (macroeconomic and internal) variables and 𝛾𝛾_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖} – coefficients standing at these variables.

Various combinations of AR, MA and other variables were tested. For every credit portfolio the best model was chosen by taking into consideration the goodness of fit (R-squared, sum of squared residuals) and its structural correctness (unit roots, normality of residuals, Durbin-Watson statistics, information-based criteria) [15]. The model of the proposed form includes most important, available macroeconomic variables, as well as possible dependence on the historical values of the NPL ratio, which represent the bank- internal factors. The selection of this model class is therefore natural and commonly accepted [5, 7, 10, 13].

The statistical analysis was performed using EViews 9.5 package.

On the basis of the historical data it was estimated that the non-performing loans ratio of household loans followed the equation:

𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁ℎ(𝑡𝑡) = 0.033892 + 0.681136𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁ℎ(𝑡𝑡 − 1) + 0.386514𝑢𝑢(𝑡𝑡 − 3) + 𝜀𝜀(𝑡𝑡), where u is the unemployment rate deseasonalized using the Hodrick-Prescott filter.

The residuals of the model are uncorrelated (Durbin-Watson statistics is equal to 1.96) and normally distributed (confirmed by the the Jarque-Bera test). The inverted AR root lies inside the unit circle, hence the autoregressive model is stationary. The runs of historical and estimated parameter are presented in Fig. 3.

It is clear that that NPL of households exhibits strong, positive correlation with the past (lag 3) unemployment rate, as the debtors cease paying their debts due to insufficient stream of income with some delay after losing their jobs. Moreover, among all the macroeconomic determinants, the unemployment affects the NPL most significantly.

As far as the consumer credits are concerned the following model was obtained:

𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑐𝑐(𝑡𝑡) = 0.883405𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑐𝑐(𝑡𝑡 − 1) − 0.250275𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑐𝑐(𝑡𝑡 − 8) + 1.643363𝑢𝑢(𝑡𝑡 − 3) + 𝜀𝜀(𝑡𝑡), where u, as before, denotes deseasonalized unemployment. Once again, the residuals are uncorrelated and normally distributed.

(17)

.058 .060 .062 .064 .066 .068 .070 .072 .074 .076

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fig. 3. Real (solid line) versus fitted (dotted line) NPL_h Source of historical data: Polish Financial Supervision Authority.

Rys. 3. Rzeczywisty (linia ciągła) i estymowany (linia przerywana) przebieg NPL_h Źródło danych historycznych: Urząd Komisji Nadzoru Finansowego.

The model is stationary, as its four inverted roots are situated inside the unit circle, although one of them is close to 1 (Table 1). The courses of the real and fitted NPL_c are depicted in Fig. 4.

.11 .12 .13 .14 .15 .16 .17 .18 .19

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fig. 4. Real (solid line) versus fitted (dotted line) NPL_c Source of historical data: Polish Financial Supervision Authority.

Rys. 4. Rzeczywisty (linia ciągła) i estymowany (linia przerywana) przebieg NPL_c Źródło danych historycznych: Urząd Komisji Nadzoru Finansowego.

The model of mortgage NPL is slightly different: apart from macro variable (GDP) and autoregressive component, it also contains the moving-average part. Its equation is as follows:

𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑚𝑚(𝑡𝑡) = 1.006139𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑚𝑚(𝑡𝑡 − 1) − 0.153716𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑚𝑚(𝑡𝑡 − 8)

+ 0.026256�1 + 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑁𝑁(𝑡𝑡 − 4)� + 𝜀𝜀(𝑡𝑡) + 0.637284𝜀𝜀(𝑡𝑡 − 1).

(18)

As in previous cases, the model is structurally correct. The results of the estimation are summarized in Table 1. The runs of the historical and fitted NPL_m are presented in Fig. 5.

.012 .016 .020 .024 .028 .032 .036

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fig. 5. Real (solid line) versus fitted (dotted line) NPL_m Source of historical data: Polish Financial Supervision Authority.

Rys. 5. Rzeczywisty (linia ciągła) i estymowany (linia przerywana) przebieg NPL_m Źródło danych historycznych: Urząd Komisji Nadzoru Finansowego.

Table 1. Summary of the estimation results Tabela 1. Podsumowanie wyników estymacji

Adjusted R-squared Durbin-Watson statistics Moduli of the inverse ARMA roots

NPL_h 0.953655 1.962537 0.68

NPL_c 0.986840 2.549209

0.990247 0.838693 0.786108 0.766267

NPL_m 0.961465 1.996352

0.972862 0.777960 0.728960 0.710637

2.2. Forecast

The models estimated in the previous section were employed to forecast the NPLs for the period 2017–2019 (quarterly). The macroeconomic parameters required in calculations: GDP and unemployment has been taken from the National Bank of Poland (Narodowy Bank Polski, NBP) inflation and rate of growth projection [16]. As the projection bases on the quarterly data it was assumed that the unemployment and GDP growth were constant over each forecasted year. The figures are shown in Table 2.

Table 2. National Bank of Poland projection of GDP growth and inflation Tabela 2. Projekcja wzrostu PKB i inflacji wg NBP

2017 2018 2019

GDP (% y/y) 4.0 3.5 3.3

Inflation (% y/y) 1.9 2.0 2.5

Source: National Bank of Poland.

Źródło: Narodowy Bank Polski.

(19)

The forecast is presented in a fan-chart-like form in Fig. 6. The baseline is the dynamic forecast. The green area on each chart represents the 95% confidence tube. Detailed forecast (baseline) can be found in Table 3.

.04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09 .10 .11 .12 .13

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

2017 2018 2019

NPL_C .040

.044 .048 .052 .056 .060 .064

2017 2018 2019

NPL_H

.016 .020 .024 .028 .032 .036

2017 2018 2019

NPL_M

Fig. 6. The forecasts of NPL_h (left), NPL_c (centre) and NPL_m (right) Rys. 6. Prognozy NPL_h (lewa), NPL_c (środek) i NPL_m (prawa) Table 3. Forecast of NPLs

Tabela 3. Prognoza NPL

NPL_h NPL_c NPL_m

2017Q2 0.059531 0.114445 0.028722

2017Q3 0.058217 0.112781 0.027687

2017Q4 0.056978 0.109880 0.027211

2018Q1 0.053067 0.093900 0.027399

2018Q2 0.052992 0.093573 0.027148

2018Q3 0.052941 0.092232 0.026920

2018Q4 0.050587 0.080263 0.026699

2019Q1 0.050563 0.077780 0.026251

2019Q2 0.050547 0.074796 0.025988

2019Q3 0.050536 0.071431 0.025857

2019Q4 0.049755 0.064752 0.025803

The forecasts of NPLs of household and consumer loans portfolios look similar.

A significant drop of the parameters is predicted for the incoming years (certainly, under the assumption that the National Bank of Poland macroeconomic projections materialize), particularly in the case of consumer loans. The forecast of mortgage loans portfolio NPL does not admit such a strict conclusion. Its confidence tube, in fact, resembles a funnel: the confidence interval for the last predicted value is more than 5-folds longer than the interval evaluated for the first one. That means that the certainty of the forecast is limited. Although the baseline of NPL_m slightly decreases, the confidence intervals significantly widen over time. Starting from 2.91% (in 2017q1), the mortgage NPL can be in the interval (1.67%;

3.49%) with probability 0.95. (This is, in fact, the conditional probability, given the NBP scenario materializes).

3. Conclusions

The non-performing loan ratio is a widely accepted and applied determinant of the credit portfolio quality [7, 17]. The ratio reflects both bank-internal and overall macroeconomic

(20)

conditions. The study proved that it can be suitably modelled and reasonably forecasted using econometric tools. The models obtained are well fitted and structurally correct.

The results of the statistical analysis point out that the non-performing loans ratio in Poland decrease for the household and consumer credits. Further decrease can be expected in the forthcoming 2 years. The quality of the mortgage loans portfolio is very good.

Nevertheless, the non-performing loans ratio of mortgage credits is expected to fall slightly or remain on the same level, but in this case the forecast is more risky and one should take also other possible scenarios into consideration. All of this, however, leads to the conclusion that these credit portfolios are healthy and no shock will materialize, on condition that macroeconomic forecasts by NBP are fulfilled.

On the other hand, it is a widely accepted opinion that Polish banking system is stable, competitive and innovative. The opinion is verified by analyses performed by supervisory authorities on the bases of complex data obtained from banking institutions [18–20].

The conclusions drawn from the two sources: numerical analysis and supervisory reports are fully consistent. This confirms the applicability of the non-performing loans ratio as the determinant of quality of credit portfolios, outstandingly useful in supervisory practices.

4. References

[1] European Central Bank 2017, “Guidance to banks on non-performing loans,” European Central Bank.

[2] “Komisja Nadzoru Finansowego,” [Online]. Available:

https://www.knf.gov.pl/?articleId=56224&p_id=18.

[3] International Organization for Standardization 2015, ISO 9000:2015: Quality management systems — Fundamentals and vocabulary.

[4] M. Knaup and W. Wagner 2012. “A Market-Based Measure of Credit Portfolio Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis,” Management Science, vol. 58, 8, 1423–1437.

[5] P. Jakubik and T. Reininger 2013. “Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe,” Focus on European Integration, Q3, 48–66.

[6] “Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2015/227 of 9 January 2015,” Official Journal of the European Union, pp. L 48/1 – L 48/630, 20 February 2015.

[7] D. P. Louzis, A. T. Vouldis and V. L. Metaxas 2012. “Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: a comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios,” Journal of Banking & Finance, 36, 1012–1027.

[8] B. Skarica 2014. “Determinants of non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries,” Financial Theory and Practice, 38.

[9] A. Berger and R. DeYoung 1997. “Problem Loans and Cost Efficiency in Commercial Banks,” Journal of Banking and Finance, 21, 849–870.

[10] N. Klein, 2013. “Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance,” International Monetary Fund Working Paper, no. WP 13/72.

[11] L. Rinaldi and A. Sanchis-Arellano, 2006. “Household Debt Sustainability: What Explains Household Non-performing Loans? An Empirical Analysis,” European Central Bank Working Paper Series, 570.

[12] R. Ranjan and S. Dhal, 2003. “Non-Performing Loans and Terms of Credit of Public Sector Banks in India: An Empirical Assessment,” Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 24, 3, 81–122.

[13] V. Makri, A. Tsagkanos and A. Bellas, 2014. “Determinants of Non-Performing Loans:

The Case of Eurozone,” Panoeconomicus, 2, 193–206.

(21)

[14] “Główny Urząd Statystyczny Portal Informacyjny,” [Online]. Available:

http://stat.gov.pl/wskazniki-makroekonomiczne/.

[15] P. Brockwell and R. Davis, 2002. Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting, Springer.

[16] “Narodowy Bank Polski,” [Online]. Available:

http://www.nbp.pl/home.aspx?f=/polityka_pieniezna/dokumenty/projekcja_inflacji.html.

[17] L. G. Meeker and L. Gray, 1987. “A note on non-performing loans as an indicator of asset quality,” Journal of Banking & Finance, 11.

[18] Urząd Komisji Nadzoru Finansowego, 2017.“Informacja o sytuacji banków w I kwartale 2017”.

[19] Bankowy Fundusz Gwarancyjny, 2017. “Sytuacja w sektorze bankowym – informacja miesięczna,” June 2017. [Online]. Available: https://www.bfg.pl/wp-

content/uploads/2017/08/Informacja_miesięczna_2017.06_www.pdf.

[20] Narodowy Bank Polski, 2017.“Raport o stabilności systemu finansowego – czerwiec 2017”.

Summary

Non-performing loans ratio of Polish banking sector for household, customer and mortgage credit portfolios was modelled and forecasted. It was confirmed that the ratio was useful and easy to model determinant of quality of a credit portfolio. The forecasts are stable and fully consistent with supervisory predictions of the loan portfolio quality.

Szymon JANISZEWSKI

Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Humanistyczny w Radomiu Wydział Informatyki i Matematyki

WSKAŹNIK KREDYTÓW ZE STWIERDZONĄ UTRATĄ WARTOŚCI JAKO DETERMINANTA JAKOŚCI PORTFELA KREDYTOWEGO

Streszczenie

W pracy badano numerycznie i prognozowano wskaźnik kredytów ze stwierdzoną utratą wartości dla portfeli kredytów gospodarstw domowych, kredytów konsumenckich i hipotecznych w polskim sektorze bankowym. Potwierdzono użyteczność wskaźnika jako miary jakości portfela kredytowego – otrzymane prognozy są w pełni zgodne z danymi nadzorczymi i oce- nami eksperckimi dotyczącymi jakości portfeli kredytowych w przyszłości.

dr Szymon JANISZEWSKI

University of Technology and Humanities in Radom Faculty of Computer Science and Mathematics ul. Malczewskiego 20a

26-600 Radom

e-mail: spjaniszewski@gmail.com

(22)

Magdalena NIEWCZAS-DOBROWOLSKA University of Economics in Cracow

Faculty of Commodity Science Department of Quality Management

Food consumers – types and attitudes

Received: April 10, 2017: Accepted: July 20, 2017 DOI: 10.19202/j.cs.2017.04.02

Key words: consumers behaviour, consumers types, preferences, attitudes, Food Neophobia Scale.

Słowa kluczowe: zachowanie konsumentów, typologia konsumen- tów, preferencje, postawy, Food Neophobia Scale.

1. Introduction

We are all consumers. Consuming is the activity that is the inherent characteristic of our life. Consumers behavior and their preferences are in the centre of interests of both the entrepreneurs and scientists.

Consumers behavior is a multi-faceted issue.

Consumers behavior is influenced by both external and internal factors. These various factors can be grouped for example in:

− the ones that are associated with the product,

− the part related to the consumer and the surroundings/environment.

However, very often – despite all the combination of factors – economic factors determine the behavior of consumers, leading consequently, to a situation where only economically, socially and cultural differentiated groups reveal the internal evidence of consumer behavior [1].

Consumers behavior can be defined as:

− Operations and activities taken in order to acquire goods and services designed to meet the needs in accordance with the perceived hierarchy of preferences [31].

− Consumer behavior include everything that precedes, occurs during and after the purchase of consumer goods and services [12].

− The study of individuals, groups, or organizations and the processes they use to select, secure, use, and dispose of products, services, experiences, or ideas to satisfy needs and the impacts that these processes have on the consumer and society [7].

It is worth to mention that consumer behavior may take place as for the individual but also in the context of the group – the influence of the outside environment, friends or the family. The very important issue is to know the process of buying products and services because consumers behavior and their preferences may be various.

Consumers are often

„labeled” in the marketplace.

They are targeted, profiled, addressed [16]. According to authors [6, 27, 29] consumers can also be ignored based on aspects of their societal identities, for example age, gender, race, student. These societal labels are elaborated based on various characteristics that help to describe consumers and enable marketers address the proper information [3, 11, 28].

2. Factors influencing consumer’s behavior Consumers behavior is influenced by many factors.

These factors can be divided into:

objective and subjective. Among the objective factors there are:

(23)

− economic factors such as i.e.: income, availability of goods, supply, savings,

− non-economic factors such as i.e.: demographic characteristics of consumers, climite, position in society.

Among the subjective factors can be mentioned: habits, attitude, tradition, perception, personality, tradition. Other factors influencing consumers behavior are: curiosity, search for novelty, reluctance to change, fear of novelty.

M. Font-i-Furnos and L. Guerrero [14] noted that the factors affecting consumers behavior may be divided into three groups: psychological (individual factor), sensory (product-specific factor) and marketing. The importance of these factors depends on: the consumer, culture, information. Consumer is a very complex psychological creature with various level of perception, motivations, emotions etc.

Among the psychological factors there are:

Beliefs and attitudes – beliefs represent the information a person has about an object, action and linked to some attributes [13]. Consumers form conceptual beliefs about a product through their experience with this product, by information (informational beliefs) from magazines, the Internet, friends, doctors etc. Beliefs are also formed on the basis of experience or acquired knowledge or personal characteristics that influence consumers behavior, preferences, attitudes [15, 17].

Consumers attitudes, beliefs towards a product, a production method, origin influence their perception [5]. Many consumers can be characterized by a negative attitudes toward i.e.

GM food or towards the food preservatives. This attitude influence the perception of a product safety and quality, and as a consequence they decide not to buy a particular product. Risk perception also plays an important role among consumers and influences their purchase decision. This issue will be described in the next part of this chapter.

Consumers may also be influenced by trends, for example many consumers avoid to consume products containg gluten even if they do not suffer from the food allergy. Other consumer for example are very green orientated and buy product that are environment friendly. Sometimes they do not consider the value of their behavior they just follow others or latest trends.

Expectations also have an impact on consumer behavior. Consumers have some expectations towards a product before purchasing it. They play an important role while accepting or rejecting the product. For example, if a consumer expects high quality of the product, he or she has bigger requirements towards this product and often are disposed to reject the product (a situation when consumer knows the product or has some objective opinions). On the other hand, if their expectations toward the quality of the product are lower, more likely they will decide to accept the product. Authors [10] say that the proces of formulating expectations starts with the previous information a consumer has.

In contrary, if a consumer on the basis of the information on the product label, the attractive packaging, brand name etc. is told about the high quality, so consumer expects the quality to be high (the consumer is not fmiliar with this product, it is just the subjective evaluation) is more likely to purchase the product. When a consumer is dissatisfied with the purchased product, the cognitive dissonance appears. This phenomenon is related to the conviction of the consumer to take the wrong decision [19]. The likelihood of the cognitive dissonance and its intensity depends on many factors [26]:

− the economic significance of the decision for the consumer. The greater the value of the price in relation to the financial resources of the buyer is, the greater its financial commitment, the greater the likelihood of dissonance;

− the degree of irreversibility of the decision. The more decision seems to be final the greater dissonance;

(24)

− the complexity of the decision. Decisions made cause more discord than simple decisions.

The greater the number of products, the more they are similar to each other and the more features include, and thus harder for them to make a choice – this dissonance is intense;

− the number of positive features perceived in nonpurchased products and (or) the number of negative features in the product purchased. With the increase of this number chance of dissonance increases;

− time elapsed since the decision. Time decreases dissonance;

− durability of the attitude of the buyer. Greater dissonance occurs when the decision violates a strong attitude than the weak attitude;

− effort and time required to make a purchase. With increasing effort, intensity increases dissonance, if the product does not meet expectations;

− consumer tendency to experience anxiety. The greater the degree of consumer manifested such a tendency, the greater the likelihood of the cognitive dissonance.

Sensory factors such as: visual appearnce, smell, flavor, intencisty of color play an important role especially while buying food. The intensity of color, the smell show the freshness of food product. Freshness is the most important factors influencing the purchase decision [22].

Marketing factors are the following: price, brand name, labels, availability, quality standards. Consumers based on these factors perceive the quality of products. Labels and brand name are the source of information about the product. There is a group of consumers that pay a big attention to the brand name and trust its quality, they usually buy products of their favourite brand [4]. Producers use these marketing factors to persuade consumers to buy a products. They help producers to show the characteristics of their product and to show that their products are better than the competitive ones. High price is often connected with high quality of products.

3. Types of consumers

Consumers can be divided into types on the basis of various factors (or characteristics) such as: the income, education, age, their character, gender.

According to ESS (Euro-Socio-Styles) survey in EU, 8 types of consumers can be indicated [21]:

1) New world – while purchasing decision they do not pay attention to price. For them the atmosphere of shopping and the quality of products are important.

2) Magic world – the buy brand products that most of people cannot buy, using these brand products to make their dreams come true and to reach their expectations.

3) Cosy Tech World – they do not pay attention to price, they look for the convenience and luxury.

4) Authentic world – they prefer the timeless products, food products without additives and preservatives.

5) Standing World – they prefer traditional products.

6) Crafty World – they search for new products, innovations.

7) Secure World – the are price-orientated, the search for discounts, especially when it comes to the luxury, brand products that give them the feel of safety.

8) Steady World – they prefer proven products and brands, their approach to shopping is rational. This group of consumers is the most popular in Europe.

Consumers can also be divided into groups on the basis of their character. These types of consumers are [25]:

1) Conservatives – they do not show the willingness to experiment while purchasing. They usually buy products they know, they have already tried or used.

(25)

2) Steadfast – they are very determined to reach the goal that is to buy products they dream about.

3) Imitators – they strive to achieve maximum benefit, success, and plan to make purchases on the basis of the observations of other consumers.

4) Success people – they are the leaders in the society, they live on a high standard, other people want to imitate them, follow them.

5) Experience seekers – this kind of consumers like to search for new experience, for them purchasing is a kind of an experiment.

6) Social people – these consumers feel responsible for others, they assess the activity of the entrepreneurs by their responsibility.

Consumers may be divided into groups taking into consideration their activity, age and salaries. In this way can be divided into the following groups [23]:

1) Innovators – they are leaders, they are willigness to accept each new offer. Usually among these consumers are young people with income above the average. The are ready to pay more for a new/innovative product.

2) Majority of early followers – willing to be overcome by strong individuals. They are usually at the middle age, professionally active.

3) Majority of late followers – elderly people with lower income than the average, with middle education.

4) Laggards – they are very cautious while making up purchase decisions, they do not pay attention to the opinion of sellers, usually they are elderly consumers with low income.

As for the types of food consumers the following groups of consumers can be identified [20]:

1) Traditionalists – the biggest group of food consumers, they usually prepare their meals at home, they seldom buy the processed food, price determines the food choice, they do not trust the advertising, they have their own beliefs and experience, they do not like changes, they have the fixed set of products they usually buy. This group of consumers are usually women with lower income, at middle age having middle education, they have their own families.

2) Rationalists – they seldom eat outside home, they have a moderate degree of intrest of processed food, their main source of knowledge about food is family, friends and books, their food choices are determined by both economic and non-economic factors for example taste, nutritional value. They do not tend to buy new products because of lack of trust and lack of information. The can change the structure of food consumed.

3) Innovators – they sometimes eat outside home. Beside food products they also use nutritional supplements. They are ready to consume processed food. They like to buy a high variety of food products. They make their food choices on the basis of non- economical factors such as: individual preferences, taste, nutritional value. Their main source of knowledge about food is professional magazines, TV, friends and foreign journeys. They like to try innovative products.

W. Daniluk have elaborated another typology of consumers personality. There are three groups of consumers [30]:

− Extrotype (from extrovertic personality) – these consumers easily externalize their needs and intrests. They can make up purchase decisions quickly.

− Introtype (from introvertic personality) – these consumers do not talk too much. It is difficult to communicate with them, they to not trust the sellers. They need very detailed information about products.

− Ambitype (from ambivalent personality) – consumers are undecided, double-minded, the seller has to convince and persuade these consumers that the product is better than the other products.

4 [53]

4 [53]

2017

Spis treści

Contents

P r z e d m o w a

P r e f a c e

Non-performing loans ratio as the quality determinant of credit portfolio

Food consumers – types and attitudes

4 ^[53]