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Roadmap for Moving to a Low Carbon Economy in China and Poland.
Comparative Analysis
China and Poland underline the principle of maintaining a balance be- tween population, resources, and environment. Considering similar en- ergy structure with the dominant role of coal and signifi cant environ- mental problems, both countries should initiate a revolution in the areas related to the production and the use of energy by promoting energy- effi cient, low carbon development of the industry, as well as new and renewable sources of energy in building the country’s energy security.
They also have to establish a system for protection of arable lands, water resources and environmental protection management systems.
The need for greater diversifi cation within the existing energy struc- ture is forcing both China and Poland to take the activities related pri- marily to: restructuring the coal sector, which should result in increased competitiveness, and the promotion of clean coal technologies; promo- tion of energy effi ciency; development of renewable energy sources as well as lifting capacity in nuclear power plants and increasing the impor- tance of natural gas in the energy mix.
Main research questions posed in this paper concern the perception of low carbon development, the overall energy mix in China and Poland and their intensity for carbon reduction targets. The major goal of this paper is to present fi rstly, that the transition to a low carbon economy in both countries leads to improving the environment. Secondly, that the environmental protection is a rising policy priority, both in China and Poland, and thirdly, that the renewable energy market dynamics com- bined with the effi ciency improvement should enhance their bargaining position in the global energy market.
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1. Global Transition to a Low Carbon Economy
Low Carbon Economy (LCE) means the economy primarly character- ized by the separation of greenhouse gas emissions from the economic and social growth, mainly by reducing the use of fossil fuels, including coal, oil and natural gas, that are currently the world’s primary energy source. It is based mainly on the energy effi ciency, the use of renewables and technological innovation help to limit greenhouse gas emissions. It is also an aleternative system of production and consumption, allowing to conserve the energy and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG).
This concept has its roots in the international environmental treaty The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNFCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 (The United Nations Frame- work Convention on Climate Change, 1992). The strategy of reducing carbon emissions to protect and improve the natural environment, com- bined with the development of low carbon economy is identifi ed within the concept of low-emission development strategies (LEDS). It refers to the national economic development plans that underline low-emission and climate resilient economic growth. This concept used to describe the objectives for the reduction of CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases. The term “low-emission development strategies” fi rst emerged under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2008.
The Kyoto Protocol has promoted a low carbon development through the clean development mechanism. The document adopted in Kyoto in Japan, on 11th December 1997, required developed countries to re- duce their GHG emissions. Developing countries, like China, were not required to commit to the reductions because their per-capita green- house gas emissions are lower than those of the developed nations. The main aim was to create a global market system, supporting the transfer of technology and building a low carbon economy in developing coun- tries (Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1998).
The next step towards building a low carbon economy was the cli- mate deal agreed by 195 countries. The Paris Agreement was adopted at the Paris UN Climate Change Conference, COP21 in December 2015. It supports transition to a low carbon economy. It provides an opportunity to development of innovations in low carbon energy. An international accord commits all countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (Adop- tion of the Paris Agreement, 2015).
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2. Laws and policies for Low Carbon and Green Growth
2.1. China
The Chinese government offi cially endorsed Low Carbon Economy (LCE) in 2007, when the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Chinese Me- teorological Administration and the Chinese Academy of Sciences started publishing annual reports on climate change in China – China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change (《气候变化国家评估报告》解读).
China underlined, that development of nations must refl ect common, but diff erentiated responsibilities and the principle of fairness. In this sense, developed countries should continue to take the lead position in emis- sions reduction actions, while developing countries should provide fi nan- cial and technical support to enhance the capacity of developing countries to address climate change. In the framework of sustainable development, developing countries should take eff orts to transform the model of eco- nomic growth, to promote technological innovation, development of “low carbon economy” (低碳经济, ditan jingji), and reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (Qihou bianhua guojia pinggu baogao jiedu, 2007).
On December 26, 2009, China adopted an amendment to the “Re- newable Energy Law”, which was fi rst passed on February 28, 2005. It introduces a law to boost development of alternative energy sources. Re- newable Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China (中华人民共和国可 再生能源法) (Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo ke zaisheng nengyuan fa, 2005, 2009) emphasized the development and utilization of renewable energy, increase in the supply of energy, improvement of the structure of energy, safeguarding the safety of energy, protection of the environment and realization of sustainable economic and social development. Priori- ties relate to the development and utilization of renewable energy in the energy development; the establishment and development of the renew- able energy market; as well as the development and utilization of wind, solar, water, biomass, geothermal, and tidal wave energy as well as other renewable energy resources (Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo ke zaisheng nengyuan fa, 2009).
The solutions adopted three years later were equally important. On October 24, 2012, China published a white paper on its energy policy, China’s Energy Policy 2012 (中国的能源政策（2012）白皮书). Most sig- nifi cant is its commitment to a strong increase of renewable and low carbon energy, as well as to establishing a green, low carbon con- cept (低碳发展理念, ditan fazhan linian) to coordinate the develop- ment and utilization of energy resources and strengthen environ- mental protection. China set new targets of developing clean coal
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technologies and highly effi cient power generation systems based on thermal power generation. It is worth to underline, that China declared to promote advanced supercritical and ultra-supercritical coal-fi red power with higher steam parameters and increased effi - ciency (Zhongguo de nengyuan zhengce (2012) Baipishu, 2012).
2.2. Poland
All issues related to the Poland’s energy policy defi nes The Act of April 10, 1997 – The Energy Law (Ustawa z dnia 10 kwietnia 1997 r. Prawo energety- czne). It underlines the creation of fordable conditions for sustainable development of the country, ensuring energy security, rational use of en- ergy, development of competition, counteracting the negative eff ects of natural monopolies, environmental protection, it also included the obli- gations under the international agreements and balancing the interests of energy companies and consumers (Ustawa z dnia 10 kwietnia 1997 r.
Prawo energetyczne, 1997).
Plans for Low Carbon Economy to contribute to the achievement of the objectives set out in the EU’s climate and energy package by 2020, relating to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix and reducing fi nal energy con- sumption by improving energy effi ciency. The major aim included in The Act of 15 April 2011 on energy effi ciency (Ustawa z dnia 15 kwietnia 2011 r.
o efektywności energetycznej) has led to improvement in the energy ef- fi ciency and the rational use of existing energy resources in the perspec- tive of increasing demand for energy. Poland sets its targets for energy savings, taking into account the role of the public sector, establishing mechanisms for supporting and monitoring system and collecting the necessary data (Ustawa z dnia 15 kwietnia 2011 r. o efektywności energety- cznej, 2011).
The long-term energy sector development strategy was presented in The Energy Policy of Poland until 2030 (Polityka energetyczna Polski do 2030 roku) adopted by the Ministry of Economy in November 2009. It set out the basic principles and directions for formulating energy poli- cies by Poland. Particular emphasis was placed on improving the energy effi ciency, increasing security of energy supplies, diversifi cation of the electricity generation structure by introducing nuclear energy, develop- ment of renewable energy sources, including biofuels, development of competitive energy markets, as well as reducing energy sector’s negative impact of on the environment. The document pointed out that the sup- ply of renewable energy would allow to reduce Poland’s dependency on
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energy imports and favour the diversifi cation of energy supply. It also established conditions for the development of a distributed energy sys- tem (Polityka energetyczna Polski do 2030 roku, 2009). The sustainable scenario included in Project of the Energy Policy till 2050 (Projekt Poli- tyka energetyczna Polski do 2050 roku) has stated that coal and oil would remain a major source of energy. Despite this, the plan provides dynamic increase in the share of natural gas, nuclear power and renewables in the Polish energy mix (Projekt Polityka energetyczna Polski do 2050 roku, 2015).
On the 4th of July, 2015, Polish Ministry of Economy set up a project called The National Programme for the Development of Low Carbon Economy (Narodowy Programu Rozwoju Gospodarki Niskoemisyjnej, NPRGN). The major aim is to develop a low carbon economy and to en- sure a sustainable development. The activities focus on low carbon en- ergy generation, effi cient resources and effi cient waste management, sustainable production, low carbon transformation in the distribution and mobility, transition towards low carbon distribution and mobility as well as the promotion of sustainable consumption patterns (Narodowy Program Rozwoju Gospodarki Niskoemisyjnej, 2015).
In this comparison one should also refer to some interesting proposals included in a document prepared under the project called Low-emission Poland 2050 (Niskoemisyjna Polska 2050). It presented possible paths for transformation of the Polish economy towards 2050, particularly in the context of estimating the potential costs and benefi ts of the imple- mentation of climate policy in the perspective of the year 2050. The proj- ect carried out by the Warsaw Institute for Economic Studies and the Institute for Sustainable Development focused on the costs and benefi ts of conducting climate policy in Poland in the perspective of the year 2050. It is an important shift towards thinking in terms of moderniza- tion based on innovation, the effi ciency and environmental friendliness.
Authors of the report emphasized that climate policy should be a part of Poland’s development policy. Everything depends on the scenario that Poland will choose. The ratio of coal in Poland’s energy mix should gradually decrease. Poland will have to replace old and ineffi cient coal- fi red plants with more effi cient, modern power plants. Because Poland will have to close the old coal-fi red power plants, there will be a prob- lem concerning electricity supply. Therefore, the government should concentrate its activities on improvement of the effi ciency and on the promotion of renewable energy. The implementation of low-emissions measures should have a positive impact on Polish economy, contribut- ing to an increase in GDP of 0.5 percent by 2030 and more than 1 percent by 2050 (Bukowski, 2013).
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3. China vs Poland Energy Consumption
The essence of low carbon economy is the effi cient utilization of energy and development of clean energy. Modernization of the energy sector in Poland and China, where it now depends on fossil fuels to the extent of about 90 percent (table 1), is needed. The current energy generation is a result of the national raw material base, which encompasses sub- stantial hard coal and lignite resources. It also constitutes a legacy of the development paradigm that dominated in Poland and China, which saw economic prosperity in the development of the energy-intensive heavy industry and mining.
Table 1: Primary energy consumption in 2014
China Poland
2014 (percent) 2014 (Mtoe) 2014 (percent) 2014 (Mtoe)
Coal 66 1 656 53 49
Oil 22 549 28 26
Gas 7 169 16 15
Hydroelectricity 3 77 – –
Nuclear 1 31 – –
Biodiesel – – 1 1
Biomass and waste – – 1 1
Other Renewables 1 21 1 1
Total 100 2502,1 100 92,1
Source: The World Bank – World Development Indicators. Breakdown of Energy Consumption Sta- tistics, Primary Energy Consumption in 2014 (China, Poland).
The electricity mix is heavily dependent on solid fuels. Coal is the most often used fuel to generate thermal electricity. The coal share of China’s total electricity generation was at an estimated 72 percent, compared to Poland’s 81 percent. As a result the diversifi cation of the electricity mix in both countries is very low (table 2).
Paradoxically, large coal reserves make both countries energy inde- pendent. China and Poland are characterized by a high energy inde- pendence, respectively at 84 percent and 72 percent. Poland’s energy independence is among the highest in the EU (Energy Research Estore, 2014, China, Poland). According to the fi gures released by Eurostat (the statistical offi ce of the European Union), the energy dependency rate of the EU rate was 53.2 percent in 2013. Poland was amongst the member states least dependent on energy imports. It’s energy dependency in-
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dex was only 23.8 percent, compared to Estonia (11.9), Denmark (12.3), Romania (18.6) (Energy consumption in the EU down to its early 1990s level, 2015).
3.1. China
Coal amounts to nearly 70 percent of the domestic demand for energy in China. These reserves are one of the largest in the world. In terms of total coal reserves, China is second only to the United States and Russia.
However, China controls almost a half of the world production. Despite this, production does not balance the domestic demand, which makes China a net coal importer.
In the future, coal mining will still remain the key sector of the economy, because the central authorities intend to implement a series of major proj- ects, aimed at modernizing and introducing new technologies in the pro- duction of clean coal. The possibility of extracting energy from coal while reducing environmental pollution at the same time, is becoming an essen- tial part of the ongoing restructuring of coal mining industry. In July 2012, China planned to construct 363 coal-fi red power plants with a combined generating capacity of 557 gigawatts (Luo, Otto & Maddocks, 2013). China focuses on the construction of large advanced units, more effi cient and generating less pollution. China has just underlined a plan of building a su- per-critical and ultra-critical units operating at high pressures. In parallel with these activities, in December 2015 China has announced that it would reduce the emissions of major pollutants in the power sector by 60 percent
Table 2: Electricity production from all energy sources in 2014
China Poland
2014 (percent) 2014 (TWh) 2014 (percent) 2014 (TWh)
Coal 72 3 681 81 126
Hydroelectric 20 1 029 1 2
Gas 2 91 4 6
Nuclear 3 131
Wind 3 148 4 6
Biomass and waste – – 9 14
Others 1 65 1 2
Total 100 5145 100 155
Source: The World Bank – World Development Indicators. Breakdown of Electricity Generation by Energy Source, Electricity Production from All Energy Sources in 2014 (China, Poland).
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by 2020 and annual carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fi red power plants by 180 million tonnes per year by 2020 (Guojia li tui ran mei dianchang gaizao jiangdi wuran paifang, 2015). The problem is the ineffi ciency of the coal-power sector. While utilisation rates had fallen and reached a record low, surplus capacity is still very high. There is a discrepancy in implemen- tation of the environmental policy at the central and local levels. Despite the fact that the central government intends to shut down the old, unsafe or energy ineffi cient plants, local governments continue to approve new capacity. For example, around 200 GW of capacity were approved for real- ization in the fi rst half of 2015, only 5 GW of small and ageing plants were shut down in 2014 (Wong, Lewis, Stanway & Chen, 2015).
Oil is the second source of energy used in China. It accounts for some 20 percent of the country energy mix. China is the second largest con- sumer of oil in the world, just after the United States. According to Wood Mackenzie, by the year 2020, 70 percent of China’s oil demand will come from import. China will overtake the US as the world’s biggest oil im- porter by 2017 (Heading in Opposite Directions: China and US Reliance on Oil Imports, 2013). Approximately two-thirds of the total oil supplies are imported, mainly form the Middle East and Africa.
The third source of energy in China is natural gas, which amounts to 6 percent of the energy mix. But China plans to increase the share of gas to 10 percent by 2020. Gas sector in China is rapidly growing, and its infl uence on the global markets will increase in the future. China has already become the world’s third largest gas importer behind Japan and South Korea. In this case, China relied on imports to meet 25 percent of its needs. Central Asian countries are the major suppliers of gas to China, through the Central Asia-China pipeline system. Turkmenistan alone supplied nearly abovea half of China’s gas imports (Mei, 2015). In 2006, China began importing liquefi ed natural gas. Now, China is the world’s third-largest importer of LNG after Japan and South Korea. It has 13 LNG terminals in operation and three under construction. It is worth to re- member, that China has the world’s largest unconventional gas reserves, with especially signifi cant shale gas potential.
Renewable energy is the fourth largest source of energy in China. This sector is growing faster than the fossil fuels sectors. According to Renew- ables 2015 Global Status Report, global investment in renewable energy reached more than 270 billion USD. China alone was responsible for 83.3 billion USD of investment, followed by the US and Europe. China is the fastest growing wind and solar PV market in the world. Only in 2014, China added 23 gigawatts of wind power (one third of the world’s total) and 10 gigawatts of solar PV (one quarter of the world’s total) (Renew- ables 2015 Global Status, 2015).
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Because of the fast growth of oil and gas consumption in the indus- trialization and urbanization, China has to develop new energy sources and to promote the technology of new energy. In the long term, China’s energy consumption will depend on coal, but later, it will be gradually replaced by clean and renewable energy like nuclear, solar, wind, ocean, geothermal and hydrogen (Zhou, 2011).
3.2. Poland
Poland’s energy structure relies on domestic coal resources. Coal accounts for 54 percent of the country’s energy mix. Poland is the largest producer of coal in the EU. Coal is a pillar of its energy security. Thanks to the huge coal reserves, Poland is the least dependent on external supplies of energy resources amongst all of the EU-28 countries. In the document Energy Policy of Poland until 2030, coal was described as a stabilizer of the coun- try’s energy security in the face of economy dependency on gas and crude oil imports (respectively 70 and 95 percent) (Polityka energetyczna Polski do 2030 roku, 2009). Similar arguments, treating coal as a stabilizer of energy security were included in the Project of the Energy Policy till 2050.
An important direction of the state energy policy will be related to in- creasing the competitiveness of this sector (Projekt Polityka energetyczna Polski do 2050 roku, 2015). During the parliamentary campaign in Sep- tember 2015, the Prime Minister of Poland, Beata Szydło, said that “there is no future for the Polish economy without coal and there is also no future for coal without modern and clean technologies” (Wybory 2015: energia z węgla czy atomu? Spór między Kopacz a Szydło, z Piechocińskim w tle, 2015). In December 2015. Andrzej Duda, the President of the Republic of Poland underlined that coal was a guarantee of Poland’s energy sovereign- ty (Duda: Węgiel jest podstawą suwerenności energetycznej Polski, 2015).
These statements show, that Poland’s energy policy is not fully com- patible with the EU’s climate and energy targets. Poland especially op- poses the reforms of the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS), designed to boost the price of emissions permits. The structure of the energy con- sumption in the European Union relies heavily on hydrocarbon energy.
The low share of coal at 18 percent arises from the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions targets and promotion of the low carbon economic model.
The EU aims to increase the energy effi ciency, develop renewable energy sources, as well as to replace coal with natural gas and other renewables.
Oil is the second source of energy used in Poland. It constitutes 28 per- cent of the country’s energy mix. The third energy source is natural gas, which accounts for 13 percent of the country’s energy mix. Poland con-
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sumes almost 15 billion cubic meters of gas annually. Approximately two- thirds of total gas supply are imported, mainly from Russia. In October 2015, Poland opened its fi rst LNG Terminal in Świnoujście. It allows to partially reduce the dependency on Russian gas supplies. This project is critical for Poland’s energy security. The initial regasifi cation capacity will be 5 billion cubic meters annually, what corresponds to approximately one third of Polish demand for natural gas. The terminal capacity would be ex- panded in the future to up to 7.5 billion cubic meters (Świnoujście: zgoda na przyjęcie pierwszej dostawy LNG, 2015). Poland also has potential and opportunities for exploitation of unconventional gas deposits. According to the study prepared by Poland’s Geological Institute, shale gas resources in Poland could vary between 346 and 768 billion cubic meters (Ocena zasobów wydobywalnych gazu ziemnego i ropy naftowej w formacjach łupkowych dolnego paleozoiku w Polsce (basen bałtycko-podlasko- lubelski) – raport pierwszy, 2012), much less than the 5.3 trillion cubic meters estimated earlier by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Renewable energy is the fourth energy source in Poland. The share of renewable energy in gross fi nal consumption of energy should reach 15 percent by 2020 (Polityka energetyczna Polski do 2030 roku, 2009; Kra- jowy Plan Działania w zakresie energii ze źródeł odnawialnych, 2010).
Wind and biomass are the most important renewable energy source in Poland (Krajowy Plan Działania w zakresie energii ze źródeł odnawial- nych, 2010). According to the REmap 2030: Renewable Energy Prospects for Poland, prepared by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in association with the Polish Ministry of Economy, Poland can increase its share of renewable energy in power generation to nearly 38 percent and in total, the fi nal energy consumption to nearly 25 percent by 2030 (compared to 7 percent in 2010). Cumulative wind capacities will reach 16GW, solar PV 5 GW and bioenergy 5GW. Total renewable power generation should grow nearly eightfold between 2010 and 2030. Poland unveiled plans to cut carbon emissions by 8 percent by 2030 based on
Table 3: EU-28 primary energy consumption by fuel type (1990–2013)
1990 (percent) 2013 (percent)
Coal and lignite 28.9 18.2
Natural gas 18.0 23.8
Oil (crude oil and petroleum products) 35.0 30.1
Nuclear energy 13.1 14.4
Renewable energy 4.5 12.6
Source: Primary energy consumption by fuel type (2015).
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2005 levels and by 22 percent compared to 1990 levels (REmap 2030: Re- newable Energy Prospects for Poland, 2015).
4. Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
In the context of building a sustainable economy, issues relating to envi- ronmental protection are of a high importance. China and Poland have recognized the fact that development policy must also take into account its environmental costs. Implementation of the objectives requires the development of appropriate technology in a way that maintains the eco- nomic competitiveness of the state.
China is the largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter in the world and it amounts to nearly 30 percent of the total. On the other hand, CO2 emis- sions per capita in China are still much lower than that of the U.S. The major sectors contributing to China’s carbon emissions like manufactur- ing and power generation, are responsible for 85 percent of country’s total carbon emissions. Additionally, about 25 percent of carbon emissions in China are caused by manufacturing products that are consumed abroad (Zhu, 2015). Poland belongs to the largest carbon dioxide emitters in the EU-28, however, it reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by one third since 1988. Poland also signifi cantly reduced its emissions per capita.
Table 4: CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production 1970–2014 (ton (Mg)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2014
China 27 648 2 411 402 3 746 109 9 009 136 10 540 750
Poland 430 972 357 727 309 303 322 664 298 131
EU-28 471 7045 4 345 210 4 066 865 3 865 298 3 415 235 World 19 847 474 22 515 632 25 610 746 33 607 885 35 669 108 Source: Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production 1970–2014 (2015).
Table 5: CO2 per capita emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production 1970–2014 (ton (Mg) CO2 per capita and per year)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2014
China 1.6 2.1 2.9 6.6 7.6
Poland 12.1 9.4 8.1 8.4 7.8
World – 4.2 4.2 4.9 4.9
Source: Global CO2 per capita emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production 1970–2014 (2015).
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4.1. China
China intends to prepare a long-term strategy and a roadmap for low carbon development, that will be based mainly on improving Regional Strategies on climate change, building low carbon energy system, build- ing energy effi cient and low carbon industrial system, controlling emis- sions from building and transportation sectors, promoting the low car- bon lifestyle, innovating low carbon development growth pattern, and promoting international cooperation on climate change.
The strategy for Building Low Carbon Energy System includes:
▪ controlling total coal consumption, enhancing the use of clean coal,
▪ increasing the share of natural gas consumption in the primary energy consumption to more than 10 percent by 2020
▪ promoting the development of hydro power,
▪ developing nuclear power,
▪ developing wind power, solar power, geothermal energy, bio-energy and tidal wave energy
▪ scaling up distributed energy and strengthen the construction of smart grid (Qianghua yingdui qihou bianhua xingdong: Zhongguo guojia zizhu gongxian, 2015).
12th Five Year Plan (2011–2015) underlined the main objectives of im- proving the energy effi ciency in the country. Key points related to the reduction of energy consumption per GDP unit by 16 percent within fi ve years towards 2015, reduction of carbon dioxide emission by 17 percent in between 2010 and 2015, as well as reduction of carbon dioxide emission by 40–45 percent by 2020, compared to 2005 emission. China set a target to obtain 11.4 percent of its primary energy requirements from non-fossil fuels in overall primary energy use (China announces 16% cut in energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2015, 2011). In June 2015, the Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, Li Keqiang, declared during his visit in Paris that China would aim to cut its GHG emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 60–65 percent of the 2005 level by 2030. China also would increase the share of non-fossil fuels in the pri- mary energy consumption to around 20 percent by 2030, and peak CO2 emissions around the same point (Zhongguo xuanbu hou 2020 qihou mubiao: tan paifang qiangdu xiajiang 60%-65%, 2015).
It confi rms the assumptions contained in China’s Energy Policy 2012, a fi rst white paper on energy policy, which very clearly emphasized the importance of developing alternative energy sources. The document states that China’s energy development should be based on the use of advanced technologies, low consumption of raw materials, smaller en- vironmental pollution, economic effi ciency, and energy security. The
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document mentioned a plan to reduce, by the end of 2015, the energy consumption per GDP unit by 16 percent in comparison to 2010 and a re- duction of carbon dioxide emissions per GDP unit by 17 percent, in line with the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015). China announced active pro- motion within the scope of the development of water, solar, wind, and nuclear power, as well as biomass and other renewable energy sources (Zhongguo de nengyuan zhengce (2012) Baipishu, 2012).
Considering the need for greater diversifi cation within the existing energy structure, China’s development strategy based on low carbon so- lutions, should focus on activities related primarily to: restructuring the coal sector, which should result in increased competitiveness, and the promotion of clean coal technologies; development of renewable energy sources; lifting capacity in nuclear power plants; as well as increasing the importance of natural gas in the energy mix (Gacek, 2015, p. 126). China also has to improve the monitoring system of greenhouse gas emissions and gradually create the basis for a national trading scheme for carbon dioxide emissions. It already launched seven local, pilot emissions trad- ing schemes. These experiences will help a launch of a national carbon emissions trading market in 2017. It will cover sectors like power gen- eration, steel industry, chemicals and cement production industries.
The carbon market will help China to meet its goals of ensuring its emis- sions peak around 2030 (Volcovici, 2015). The system still has a number of weaknesses, like legal and administrative regulations, statistics, data collection, as well as monitoring and evaluation systems. Emission limits for diff erent regions should be based on their economic development, industrial structure, and the citizens environmental issues awareness.
Progress in this area will mainly depend on the determination of the au- thorities.
4.2. Poland
Poland strategy corresponds with that of the EU. The most important is the EU 2020 Energy Strategy, also known as 20/20/20 climate/ener- gy targets by 2020 (3x20 policy). The plan assumes a reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent before 2020, compare to the 1990 emission level; increasing the energy effi ciency by 20 percent to 2020;
reaching 20 percent of energy from renewables in the total energy con- sumption in the EU by 2020; and reaching the 10 percent level of biofuels use in the total vehicle fuel consumption by 2020 (Communication from the Commission Europe 2020. A strategy for smart, sustainable and in- clusive growth, 2010).
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Considering the criterion of equal eff orts of member states, Poland could increase its 14 percent emissions by 2020 compared to 2005 in sec- tors not included in the EU emissions trading system, because of the lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita comparatively to the EU aver- age. Poland could also increase the share of the energy from renewable sources to 15 percent by 2020, instead of the EU’s average of 20 percent, due to the limited resources and low effi ciency of renewable energy sources used in Poland (Overview of Europe 2020 targets). The EU’s energy policy is based on three pillars: competitiveness, sustainability and supply secu- rity (Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Com- mittee of the Regions, 2010). The priorities related to achieving an energy effi cient Europe, building a truly pan-European, integrated energy market, empowering consumers and achieving the highest level of safety and secu- rity, extending Europe’s leadership in energy technology and innovation, and strengthening the external dimension of the EU energy market (ibid.).
The second important strategy is the EU 2030 Energy Strategy, setting goals for the EU in 2030. It proposed a 40 percent cut in GHG emissions compared to 1990 levels; at least a 27 percent share of renewable energy consumption; as well as at least 27 percent improvement in the energy effi ciency (Communication from the Commission to the European Par- liament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, 2014). In 2011, the European Commission underlined its ambitious climate targets in A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050. The document set a long-term goal of reducing GHG emissions in the range of 80–95 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2050 (Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and So- cial Committee and the Committee of the Regions, 2011).
Generally, Poland supports the EU climate policy. However, measures to achieve these targets are contentious. Adjustment of the Polish econo- my to the requirements of environmental protection and climate, in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are associated with a need to in- vest in new and less emissive technology. Poland emphasizes that the EU solutions should take into account the specifi city of all members of the EU and their diff erent energy mixes (Wiceminister Pietrewicz o pakiecie klimatyczno-energetycznym, 2015).
The reform of the EU ETS is perceived as controversial by Poland. The economic slowdown and lower demand for electricity led to a large sur- plus of CO2 permits, pushing their prices down. Poland strongly opposes the EU policy that lead to gaining a greater control of the market and per- manent introduction of a back-loading mechanism of CO2 allowances.
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In 2013, the EU decided to remove a total of 900 million allowances on auction from 2014 to 2016, before returning them to the market from 2019 to 2020 (Erbach, 2014). The aim is to increase the price of allowances. This solution is not benefi cial for countries such as Poland, whose energy is based mainly on coal. The decision of the EU could cost the Polish budget as much as 1 billion EUR in lost revenues from 2013 to 2020 (Polska może stracić ok. 1 mld euro na zawieszeniu aukcji CO2, 2012). According to the World Bank’s report, the implementation of the European Union climate and energy package might reduce Polish GDP by 1.4 percent annually by 2020 (while the average for the EU-26 is 0.55 percent). It will also raise the unemployment rate in Poland by 0.57 percent, while in the EU-26 by 0.17 percent (Transition to a low-emissions economy in Poland).
The EU’s climate and energy policy beyond the year 2020 could be a matter of intense debate in Poland. The result of the proposed new trading system for greenhouse gases may be a distortion of competition and fi nally, it could further increase the energy prices. The EU’s policy leading to a growth in energy prices, has a double negative impact on the poorer European countries like Poland. In particular, the costs of the EU’s climate policy impact mainly on the households. The share of the domes- tic energy costs in the total expenditure in Poland was 9.1 percent in 2012, second only to Slovakia (while the EU-27’s average was only 4.5 percent).
The energy prices for the industrial consumers are relatively higher in the poorest countries in EU (Koncepcja zmian w unijnej polityce ener- getyczno-klimatycznej oraz proponowane kierunki jej modyfi kacji wraz z uzasadnieniem i oceną skutków, 2013).
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