Strategic design of multi-actor nascent energy and industrial infrastructure networks under uncertainty
210
0
0
Pełen tekst
(2) 6WUDWHJLFGHVLJQRIPXOWLDFWRUQDVFHQWHQHUJ\DQGLQGXVWULDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNVXQGHUXQFHUWDLQW\ <HVKDPEHO*LUPD0HOHVH . .
(3) . .
(4) 6WUDWHJLFGHVLJQRIPXOWLDFWRUQDVFHQWHQHUJ\DQGLQGXVWULDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNVXQGHUXQFHUWDLQW\ . 3URHIVFKULIW WHUYHUNULMJLQJYDQGHJUDDGYDQGRFWRU DDQGH7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWHLW'HOIW RSJH]DJYDQGH5HFWRU0DJQLILFXVSURILU.&$0/X\EHQ YRRU]LWWHUYDQKHW&ROOHJHYRRU3URPRWLHV LQKHWRSHQEDDUWHYHUGHGLJHQRS YULMGDJRNWREHURP XXU GRRU <HVKDPEHO*LUPD0(/(6( . . 0DVWHURI6FLHQFHLQ6XVWDLQDEOH(QHUJ\7HFKQRORJ\ 7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWHLW(LQGKRYHQ1HGHUODQG JHERUHQWH8SSHU%LUU(WKLRSLs.
(5) Doctoral Thesis supervisors: Prof.dr.ir.P.M.Herder Dr.ir.R.M.Stikkelman. Members of the Examination Committee: Prof.dr. H.L.M. Bakker. Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. Prof.H.-P. Nee. KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden. Prof. P. Linares. Comillas Pontifical University, Spain. Prof.dr.ir.D.M.J.Smeulders. Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands. Prof.dr. R.W. Künneke. Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. Prof. dr. K. Blok. Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands, reserve member. TRITA -EE 2017:062 ISSN 1653-5146 ISBN 978-94-6361-002-5. This research was funded by the European Commission through the Erasmus Mundus Joint Doctorate Program and Delft University of Technology.. Copyright © 2017 by Y.G.Melese Printed by:Optima Grafische Communicatie.
(6) This dissertation has been approved by the promotor: Prof.dr. ir. P.M.Herder copromotor: Dr.ir.R.M.Stikkelman Composition of the doctoral committee: Rector Magnificus, Prof.dr. ir. P.M.Herder Dr.ir.R.M.Stikkelman. chairman Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. Independent members: Prof.dr. H.L.M. Bakker. Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. Prof.H.-P. Nee. KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden. Prof. P. Linares. Comillas Pontifical University, Spain. Prof.dr.ir.D.M.J.Smeulders. Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands. Prof.dr. R.W. Künneke. Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. Prof. dr. K. Blok. Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands, reserve member. The doctoral research has been carried out in the context of an agreement on joint doctoral supervision between Comillas Pontifical University, Madrid, Spain, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden and Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands.. Keywords: Energy and industrial infrastructure networks; design under uncertainty; design flexibility; risk sharing; cooperative game theory; real options.. ISBN 78-94-6361-002-5 Copyright © 2017 Y.G.Melese. All rights reserved. No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the author. Printed in the Netherlands.
(7) 6(76-RLQW'RFWRUDWH 7KH(UDVPXV0XQGXV-RLQW'RFWRUDWHLQ6XVWDLQDEOH(QHUJ\7HFKQRORJLHVDQG6WUDWHJLHV6(76 -RLQW'RFWRUDWHLVDQLQWHUQDWLRQDOSURJUDPPHUXQE\VL[LQVWLWXWLRQVLQFRRSHUDWLRQ x &RPLOODV3RQWLILFDO8QLYHUVLW\0DGULG6SDLQ x 'HOIW8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\'HOIWWKH1HWKHUODQGV x .7+5R\DO,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\6WRFNKROP6ZHGHQ x )ORUHQFH6FKRRORI5HJXODWLRQ)ORUHQFH,WDO\ x -RKQV+RSNLQV8QLYHUVLW\%DOWLPRUH86$ x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·V(GXFDWLRQ$XGLRYLVXDODQG&XOWXUH ([HFXWLYH$JHQF\($&($KDVVXSSRUWHGWKHIXQGLQJRIWKLVSURJUDPPH 7KH($&($LVQRWWREHKHOGUHVSRQVLEOHIRUFRQWHQWVRIWKHWKHVLV. .
(8) 7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV. . 6XPPDU\««[L 6DPPDQIDWWQLQJ[ LY 6DPHQYDWWLQJ[ YL $FNQRZOHGJPHQWV[L[ &KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ . %DFNJURXQG. . 'HVLJQ3HUVSHFWLYHV. . 5HVHDUFK3UREOHP. . 5HVHDUFK2EMHFWLYHDQG4XHVWLRQV. . 5HVHDUFK$SSURDFK . . 6FLHQWLILF&RQWULEXWLRQV. . ,PSOLFDWLRQVIRU3UDFWLFH. . /LVWRI3XEOLFDWLRQV. . 7KHVLV6WUXFWXUH. &KDSWHU 'HVLJQLQJ 0XOWL$FWRU 1DVFHQW 1HWZRUNV (QJLQHHULQJ DQG $FWRU SHUVSHFWLYHV . ,QWURGXFWLRQ. . &RQFHSWXDOL]LQJ,QIUDVWUXFWXUH1HWZRUNV²$6RFLR7HFKQLFDO3HUVSHFWLYH. . 'HVLJQ3HUVSHFWLYHV. . 6\VWHPVHQJLQHHULQJSHUVSHFWLYH. . (QJLQHHULQJDQGDFWRUSHUVSHFWLYHV. . 8QFHUWDLQW\DQG0XOWL$FWRU,QIUDVWUXFWXUH1HWZRUN'HVLJQ . . $QHQJLQHHULQJSHUVSHFWLYHWRPDQDJLQJXQFHUWDLQW\ . . $FWRUSHUVSHFWLYHWRPDQDJLQJXQFHUWDLQW\. . ,QWHJUDWLQJHQJLQHHULQJDQGDFWRUSHUVSHFWLYHV. . 6XPPDU\. &KDSWHU'HVLJQLQJ)OH[LELOLW\WR0DQDJH8QFHUWDLQW\GXULQJ&RQFHSWXDO'HVLJQRI 1HWZRUNV 9,, . VII.
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
(10) 7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV. &KDSWHU &RQFHSWXDO 'HVLJQ RI ,QIUDVWUXFWXUH 1HWZRUNV YLD D 5LVN 6KDULQJ &RQWUDFW«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
(11) 7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV. . 8QFHUWDLQW\0RGHOOLQJDQG6LPXODWLRQ . . *UDSKWKHRU\QHWZRUNPRGHO . . *DPHWKHRU\EDVHGULVNVKDULQJPRGHO . . 2QFKDOOHQJHVWRDGRSWLQJDIOH[LEOHGHVLJQDSSURDFK . . &DSWXULQJWKHIXOOYDOXHRIIOH[LELOLW\LQHQJLQHHULQJGHVLJQ . . 5HFRPPHQGDWLRQV . . )RUIXWXUHUHVHDUFKZRUN . . ,PSOLFDWLRQVIRUSUDFWLFH. %LEOLRJUDSK\ 3XEOLVKHG3DSHUV . ; . X.
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
(15) OHDGLQJ WREDVHFDVHGHPDQGIRUHFDVWVDQGFRVWHVWLPDWHV+RZHYHUGHWHUPLQLVWLFDVVXPSWLRQVDUHQR ORQJHUYDOLGEHFDXVHDFWXDOGHVLJQUHTXLUHPHQWVDQGWKHIXWXUHHQYLURQPHQWZLOODOZD\VYDU\ ;, . XI.
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· SUH H[LVWLQJEXVLQHVVHVDQGWKHQHZMRLQWSURMHFW7KHILQGLQJVPD\UHGXFHXQFHUWDLQW\DPRQJDFWRUV DQGPD\HQFRXUDJHFRRSHUDWLRQLQYLWDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQYHVWPHQWV 7KH IRXUWK SDUW RI WKH WKHVLV H[SORUHV WKH TXHVWLRQ RI KRZ SULYDWH DQG SXEOLF DFWRUV ZLWK GLIIHUHQW DQG FRQIOLFWLQJ REMHFWLYHV FDQ HQKDQFH GHVLUHG SHUIRUPDQFHV HJ UHGXFWLRQ LQ ULVN ;,, . XII.
(17) 6XPPDU\ H[SRVXUH DQG DQ LQFUHDVH LQ UHOLDELOLW\
(18) ZKHQ WKH\ GHYHORS QHZ HQHUJ\ DQG LQGXVWULDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH QHWZRUNV XQGHU XQFHUWDLQW\ 7KH VWXG\ GHYHORSV DQ LQWHJUDWHG DSSURDFK WKDW HQFRXUDJHV IOH[LEOH VWUDWHJLHV ERWK LQ WKH HQJLQHHULQJ DQG FRQWUDFWXDO GHVLJQV WR JHW D EHWWHU DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI WKH YDOXH RI IOH[LELOLW\ LQ D PXOWLDFWRU VHWWLQJ 7KH DSSURDFK HPSOR\V SUREDELOLVWLF DQG VLPXODWLRQ PHWKRGV WR DQWLFLSDWH D UDQJH RI IXWXUH FLUFXPVWDQFHV DQG WKHQ HQDEOHVFRQWUDFWLQJSDUWLHV WRLGHQWLI\WHFKQLFDODQGFRQWUDFWXDOGHVLJQVWUDWHJLHVWKDWSURYLGH HQKDQFHG GHVLUHG SHUIRUPDQFH $SSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH DSSURDFK KDV VKRZQ WKDW FRPELQDWLRQ RI IOH[LEOHQHWZRUNGHVLJQVDQGULVNVKDULQJUHYHQXHJXDUDQWHHPHFKDQLVPVHPHUJHGDVDIURQWLHU GHVLJQFKRLFHIRUERWKDFWRUV7KHFRQIOLFWLQJREMHFWLYHVEHWZHHQWKHSULYDWHDQGSXEOLFDFWRUV PHDQWKDWWUDGHRIIVDUHQHFHVVDU\DQGWKHGHVLJQWKDWHQKDQFHVYDOXHIRUERWKSDUWQHUVFRXOGEH GLIIHUHQWIURPWKHGHVLJQVWUDWHJ\IDYRXUHGIURPDQHQJLQHHULQJSHUVSHFWLYH ,Q FRQFOXVLRQ WKH FRQFHSWXDO IUDPHZRUNV DQG GHVLJQ DQDO\VLV DSSURDFK GHYHORSHG LQ WKLV WKHVLVKDYHVKRZQWRSURYLGHDEHWWHUDSSUHFLDWLRQRIIOH[LELOLW\LQWKHIDFHRIXQFHUWDLQW\GXULQJ WKHFRQFHSWXDOGHVLJQVWDJHRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNV$FWRUVFDQJDLQYDOXDEOHLQVLJKWVRQKRZ WR VWUDWHJLFDOO\ GHSOR\ QHWZRUNV E\ FDUU\LQJ RXW H[SORUDWRU\ DQDO\VLV RQ WKH YDOXH HIIHFWV RI GLIIHUHQWIOH[LEOHGHVLJQVWUDWHJLHV7KH\FDQDOVRJHWYDOXDEOHLQVLJKWVUHJDUGLQJWKHYDOXHVRI FRRSHUDWLRQWKHRSWLPDOVKDULQJRIULVNDQGWKHVHOHFWLRQRIVXLWDEOHFRQWUDFWXDOSDUWQHUVLQDQ XQFHUWDLQLQYHVWPHQWHQYLURQPHQW. ;,,, . XIII.
(19) 6DPPDQIDWWQLQJ . 6DPPDQIDWWQLQJ (QHUJL RFK LQGXVWULHOOD LQIUDVWUXNWXUQlW XWJ|U U\JJUDGHQ L YnUW HQHUJLV\VWHP HIWHUVRP GH WLOOKDQGDKnOOHUYlVHQWOLJDYHUNW\JRFKWMlQVWHU8QGHUQlWYHUNHWVNRQFHSWXHOODGHVLJQIDVlULQWH DOOD GHOWDJDUH HOOHU GHQ NDSDFLWHW VRP GH EHK|YHU IXOOW NlQGD YLONHW VNDSDU RVlNHUKHW I|U SURMHNWXWYHFNODUHHIWHUVRPEHVOXWVRPQlWYHUNVOD\RXWPnVWHJHQRPI|UDVQlURVlNHUKHWH[LVWHUDU 'HVVXWRPKDUSURMHNWXWYHFNODUHROLNDLQWUHVVHQVRPVNDSDURVlNHUKHWNULQJYLONHQGHVLJQVRP lU EUD RFK KXU NRVWQDGHU RFK LQWlNWHU VND I|UGHODV 'lUI|U OHGHU RVlNHUKHWHQ RIWD WLOO VlPUH QlWYHUNVOD\RXWHUHOOHUWLOORFKPHGWLOODWWYLNWLJDLQIUDVWUXNWXUQlWYHUNLQWHE\JJV|YHUKXYXG WDJHWHIWHUVRPSDUWHUEOLUULVNDYYLNDQGHRFKLQWHYLOOVDWVDSnIHOKlVW'lUI|UNUlYVHWWVlWWDWW KDQWHUDRVlNHUKHWHWWVnGDQWVRPNlQQHULJHQRVlNHUKHWLGHVLJQNUDYHQRFKJ|UGHWP|MOLJWI|U DNW|UHU DWW EHG|PD ULVNHU NRUUHNW RFK XWYHFNOD VWUDWHJLHU I|U DWW DQSDVVD VLJ WLOO IUDPWLGD I|UlQGULQJDUSnHWWNRVWQDGVHIIHNWLYWYLV 8SSVDWVHQVELGUDJnWHUILQQVLI\UDGHODU'HQI|UVWDGHOHQDYXSSVDWVHQIRNXVHUDUSnEHJUHSSHW IOH[LEHO GHVLJQ RFK GHVV WLOOlPSQLQJ Sn XWIRUPQLQJHQ DY LQIUDVWUXNWXUQlWYHUN %HJUHSSHW IOH[LELOLWHWWLOOlPSDVXWLIUnQHWWNRQVWUXNWLRQVGHVLJQVRFKVNnGHVSHODUSHUVSHNWLY WH[NRQWUDNW
(20) VDNQDVI|UGHWPHVWD,GHWWDDYVHHQGHI|UHVOnVHQQ\UDPVRPVW\UIOH[LEHO|YHUYlJHOVHEnGHL WHNQLVNDRFKNRQWUDNWVPlVVLJDNRQVWUXNWLRQHUDYQlWYHUN 'HQDQGUDGHOHQDYXSSVDWVHQIRNXVHUDUSnIOH[LELOLWHWLNRQVWUXNWLRQVGHVLJQDYQlWYHUNPHG PnOHW DWW I|UElWWUD GHVV OLYVWLGVSUHVWDQGD LQI|U RVlNUD GHVLJQNUDY (Q V\VWHPDWLVN NRQVWUXNWLRQVPHWRG VRP NRPELQHUDU NRQFHSW IUnQ JUDIWHRUL XWIRUVNDQGH PRGHOOHULQJ RFK DQDO\V RFK YHUNOLJD DOWHUQDWLY I|UHVOnV I|U DWW XWIRUVND YlUGLJD NDQGLGDWGHVLJQHU LGHQWLILHUD IOH[LELOLWHWVPlWDUH RFK XSSVNDWWD YlUGHW DY IOH[LEOD GHVLJQVWUDWHJLHU ,OOXVWUDWLRQHU DY GH I|UHVODJQD WLOOYlJDJnQJVVlWWHQ YLVDGH DWW HQ IOH[LEHO GHVLJQVWUDWHJL VNXOOH NXQQD I|UElWWUD QlWYHUNHWVOLYVOlQJG 8SSVDWVHQV WUHGMH GHO WLWWDU Sn ULVNGHOQLQJHQ QlU DNW|UHU VDPILQDQVLHUDU L LQIUDVWUXNWXUV QlWYHUNVSURMHNWLRVlNUDPLOM|HU(QPRGHOOVRPNRPELQHUDUEHJUHSSHQNRRSHUDWLYVSHOWHRULRFK lUXWYHFNODGI|UDWWDQDO\VHUDHIIHNWHUQDDYRVlNHUKHW0RGHOODQDO\VYLVDGHDWWDNW|UHUNXQGHIn PHUV\QHUJLHUIUnQULVNGHOQLQJRFKRSWLPDODLQWlNWHURFKULVNDOORNHULQJEHURHQGHSnDNW|UHUQDV UHGDQEHILQWOLJDYHUNVDPKHWVSURILOHU'HVVDUHVXOWDWNDQPLQVNDRVlNHUKHWHQEODQGDNW|UHURFK XSSPXQWUDVDPDUEHWHLYLNWLJDQlWYHUNVLQYHVWHULQJDU 'HQ IMlUGH GHOHQ DY XSSVDWVHQ NRPELQHUDU IOH[LELOLWHW LQRP NRQVWUXNWLRQVIOH[LELOLWHW RFK NRQWUDNWVPlVVLJDULVNGHOQLQJVNRQFHSWI|UDWWI|UElWWUD|QVNDGSUHVWDQGDQlUDNW|UHUXWYHFNODU ;,9 . XIV.
(21) 6DPPDQIDWWQLQJ Q\D QlWYHUN XQGHU RVlNHUKHW *HQRP DWW DQYlQGD ULVNGHOQLQJ I|U DWW P|MOLJJ|UD YlUGHDYYlJQLQJDU NDQ SURMHNWDNW|UHU DQSDVVD VLQD LQWUHVVHQ RFK XWIRUPD QlWYHUN VRP |PVHVLGLJWNDQI|UElWWUDGHVVYlUGH. ;9 . XV.
(22) 6DPHQYDWWLQJ . 6DPHQYDWWLQJ 6WUDWHJLVFKRQWZHUSYDQRSNRPHQGHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHQYDQGHHQHUJLHHQLQGXVWULHVHFWRURQGHU RQ]HNHUKHLGYDQXLWHHQ0XOWLDFWRUSHUVSHFWLHI ,QIUDVWUXFWXUHOH QHWZHUNHQ WUDQVSRUWHUHQ HVVHQWLsOH SURGXFWHQ ]RDOV DDUGJDV ZDUPWH HQ HOHNWULFLWHLW YDQ ppQ RI PHHUGHUH EURQQHQ QDDU pp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·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
(23) 6DPHQYDWWLQJ HQ KHW RQWZHUSHQ YDQ HQHUJLH HQ LQGXVWULsOH LQIUDVWUXFWXXUQHWZHUNHQ LQ KHW ELM]RQGHU 'LW SURHIVFKULIW VWHOW YDVW GDW GDW KHW FRQFHSW IOH[LELOLWHLW XLWVOXLWHQG ZRUGW WRHJHSDVW YDQXLW HHQ WHFKQLVFK RQWZHUSSHUVSHFWLHI +HW DFWRUSHUVSHFWLHI RQWEUHHNW 'DDURP ZRUGW HHQ QLHXZ UDDPZHUNYRRUJHVWHOGGDWKHWFRQFHSWIOH[LELOLWHLWPHHQHHPWLQKHWWHFKQLVFKHHQFRQWUDFWXHOH RQWZHUSYDQHQHUJLHHQLQGXVWULsOHLQIUDVWUXFWXXUQHWZHUNHQ +HWWZHHGHGHHOYDQKHWSURHIVFKULIWULFKW]LFKRSIOH[LELOLWHLWLQKHWWHFKQLVFKHRQWZHUSYDQ HQHUJLH HQ LQGXVWULsOH LQIUDVWUXFWXXUQHWZHUNHQ PHW KHW GRHO KXQ OHYHQVGXXU SUHVWDWLH WH YHUEHWHUHQ LQ KHW OLFKW YDQ RQ]HNHUH RQWZHUSYHUHLVWHQ 'H VWXGLH KHHIW HHQ V\VWHPDWLVFKH WHFKQRORJLVFKHRQWZHUSEHQDGHULQJRQWZLNNHOGGLHQHWZHUNHQPRGHOOHULQJRSEDVLVYDQ*UDIHQ WKHRULH FRPELQHHUW PHW KHW FRQFHSW ([SORUDWRU\ PRGHOOHQ HQ KHW FRQFHSW 5HDO 2SWLRQV 'H RQWZHUSEHQDGHULQJKHHIWDOVGRHOQLHXZHRQWZHUSHQWHH[SORUHUHQZDDUGHYROOHYHURRU]DNHUV YDQ IOH[LELOLWHLW WH LGHQWLILFHUHQ HQ GH ZDDUGH YDQ IOH[LEHOH RQWZHUSVWUDWHJLHs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|SHUDWLHIVSHOPRGHORQWZLNNHOGYRRUGHFRQWUDFWXHOHDIVSUDNHQWXVVHQDFWRUHQHQ+HWPRGHO GDWGHHIIHFWHQYDQRQ]HNHUKHLGDQDO\VHHUWOHLGWWRWWZHHKRRIGFRQFOXVLHV'HHHUVWHEHYLQGLQJ LV GDW VDPHQZHUNHQGH DFWRUHQ PHW HHQ YHUVFKLOOHQGH ULVLFRSHUFHSWLH PHHU V\QHUJLsQ NXQQHQ NULMJHQXLWULVLFRGHOLQJ'HWZHHGHEHYLQGLQJLVGDWKHWRSWLPDOHGHOHQYDQLQNRPVWHQHQULVLFR DIKDQNHOLMN LV YDQ GH UHODWLH WXVVHQ GH EHVWDDQGH EHGULMYLJKHLG HQ KHW QLHXZH JHPHHQVFKDSSHOLMNHSURMHFW'HEHYLQGLQJHQNXQQHQRQ]HNHUKHGHQELMGHDFWRUHQYHUPLQGHUHQ HQNXQQHQKXQPHGHZHUNLQJDDQYLWDOHLQIUDVWUXFWXXULQYHVWHULQJHQDDQPRHGLJHQ ,Q KHW YLHUGH GHHO YDQ KHWSURHIVFKULIW LV RQGHU]RFKW KRH SULYDWH HQSXEOLHNH DFWRUHQ PHW YHUVFKLOOHQGHHQWHJHQVWULMGLJHGRHOVWHOOLQJHQGHJHZHQVWHSUHVWDWLHV]RDOVULVLFRYHUPLQGHULQJ HQ EHWURXZEDDUKHLGVWRHQDPHNXQQHQYHUEHWHUHQELMKHWRQWZLNNHOHQYDQQLHXZHHQHUJLHHQ LQGXVWULsOH LQIUDVWUXFWXXUQHWZHUNHQ RQGHU RQ]HNHUKHLG 'H VWXGLH KHHIW JHUHVXOWHHUG LQ HHQ JHwQWHJUHHUGH DDQSDN GLH IOH[LEHOH VWUDWHJLHsQ DDQPRHGLJW ]RZHO LQ GH HQJLQHHULQJ DOV FRQWUDFWXHOH RQWZHUSHQ RP GH ZDDUGH YDQ IOH[LELOLWHLW EHWHU WH ZDDUGHUHQ LQ HHQ PXOWLDFWRU RPJHYLQJ'HDDQSDNPDDNWJHEUXLNYDQSUREDELOLVWLVFKHHQVLPXODWLHPHWKRGHQRPHHQUHHNV ;9,, . XVII.
(24) 6DPHQYDWWLQJ WRHNRPVWLJHVLWXDWLHVWHDQWLFLSHUHQHQVWHOWGHFRQWUDFWSDUWLMHQLQVWDDWWHFKQLVFKHHQFRQWUDFWXHOH RQWZHUSVWUDWHJLHs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sQ=HNXQQHQRRNZDDUGHYROOHLQ]LFKWHQYHUNULMJHQ RYHU GH ZDDUGH YDQ VDPHQZHUNLQJ GH RSWLPDOH ULVLFRYHUGHOLQJ HQ GH VHOHFWLH YDQ JHVFKLNWH FRQWUDFWXHOHSDUWQHUVLQHHQRQ]HNHUHLQYHVWHULQJVRPJHYLQJ . ;9,,, . XVIII.
(25) $FNQRZOHGJPHQWV. $FNQRZOHGJPHQWV 6OLJKWO\RYHUIRXUDQGKDOI\HDUVKDYHSDVVHGVLQFH,VWDUWHGP\3K'DWWKH(QHUJ\DQG,QGXVWU\ 6HFWLRQLQWKH)DFXOW\RI7HFKQRORJ\3ROLF\DQG0DQDJHPHQWRIWKH7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWHLW'HOIW DV SDUW RI WKH (UDVPXV 0XQGXV -RLQW 'RFWRUDWH LQ 6XVWDLQDEOH (QHUJ\ 7HFKQRORJLHV DQG 6WUDWHJLHV 6(76
(26) DSURMHFWZKLFKFXOPLQDWHGZLWKWKLV'LVVHUWDWLRQ7KLVSHULRGLQP\OLIHKDV EHHQ ILOOHG ZLWK H[FLWHPHQW DQG JURZWK QRW RQO\ SHUVRQDOO\ EXW DOVR DFDGHPLFDOO\ DQG SURIHVVLRQDOO\,ZRXOGOLNHWRWDNHWKLVRSSRUWXQLW\WRH[SUHVVP\JUDWLWXGHWRZDUGVDOOSDUWQHUV XQLYHUVLWLHV RI WKH 6(76 SURJUDPPH WKH (XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ DQG PRVW LPSRUWDQWO\ WKH LQFUHGLEOHLQGLYLGXDOVWKDWPDGHWKLVH[SHULHQFHDOLIHFKDQJLQJMRXUQH\ )LUVW DQG IRUHPRVW , ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN P\ FRSURPRWRU 5RE 6WLNNHOPDQ IRU EHLQJ D YHU\ VXSSRUWLYHIULHQGO\DQGSURIHVVLRQDOVXSHUYLVRU5REJDYHPHWKHIUHHGRPWRGHYHORSP\RZQ LGHDVDQGPRWLYDWHGPHDORQJWKHZD\6HFRQGO\,ZRXOGOLNHWRH[SUHVVP\GHHSHVWJUDWLWXGH WRP\SURPRWRU3DXOLHQ+HUGHUZKRIURPWKHILUVWGD\DOORZHGPHWRIROORZP\RZQLQVWLQFWV ZKLOHFDOPO\REVHUYLQJWKHLQWHOOHFWXDOPHVVHV,JRWP\VHOILQWREHIRUHVKHJHQWO\JXLGHVPHWRD UHVHDUFK SDWK ZH DOO FDQ DJUHH ZLWK , DOZD\V DGPLUHG DQG HQMR\HG KHU OHDGHUVKLS VW\OH GHGLFDWLRQDQGSUDJPDWLVP 6SHFLDOWKDQNVJRWR3HWUD+HLMQHQZLWKZKRP,FROODERUDWHGLPPHQVHO\LQWKLVWKHVLV3HWUDLV DYHU\VPDUWFRRSHUDWLYHDQGHIIHFWLYHFROOHDJXHDQG,DPYHU\WKDQNIXOIRUKHUJHQHURXVDGYLFH DQGJXLGDQFH+RQHVWO\KHUVXSSRUWLQWKLVWKHVLVHVSHFLDOO\ZLWKWKHJUDSKWKHRUHWLFDOQHWZRUN PRGHOZDVYHU\KHOSIXO )RUP\6(76PRELOLW\, VSHQWWLPHDWWKH,QVWLWXWHIRU5HVHDUFK LQ7HFKQRORJ\8QLYHUVLGDG 3RQWLILFD &RPLOODV LQ 0DGULG DQG ZRXOGOLNH WRH[SUHVV P\ JUDWLWXGH WR 6DUD /XPEUHUDV DQG $QGUpV 5DPRV IRU KRVWLQJ PH DQGJXLGLQJ P\ZRUN 6DUD LQVSLUHG PH ZLWK KHU VWURQJ ZRUN HWKLFDQGSURIHVVLRQDOLVP/LNHZLVH,EHOLHYHWKDW$QGUHV5DPRVKDVEHHQDJUHDWPHQWRU%RWK 6DUDDQG$QGUHVKDYHPDGHP\VWD\LQ0DGULGHQMR\DEOHDQGSURGXFWLYH,ZRXOGDOVROLNHWR WKDQNRXU6(76FRRUGLQDWRU6DUD7DPDULWIRUDOZD\VKHOSLQJRXWLQYDULRXV6(76UHODWHGLVVXHV 7KDQN\RXWRDOOP\FROOHDJXHVLQ'HOIWWKDW,HQMR\HGWLPHZLWKLQDQGRXWRIRIILFH-RUJH (VWKHU3UDG5LFDUGR%HQ<LQJ%LQRG.DYHUL5HPFR<DVKDU$QWHQHK.HGLU6DOPDQ-RVp 3DEOR6ULUDP$PLQHK-RDR-XOLDQQD5HLQLHU-RUQ'HLGUD$PLW$UWKXU,JRU5RQDOG=RILD ,YR/DXUHQVePLOH/\GLD6KDQWDQX&KHUUHOOH)UDQN7KRUEHQ.DVSHUg]JH*UDFLHOD9LFWRULD DQG7ULVWHQ7KDQN\RXDOOIRUWKHZRQGHUIXOWLPHV,ZRXOGDOVROLNHWRWKDQNWKH6(76VWXGHQWV QRWPHQWLRQHGVRIDUHVSHFLDOO\WKRVH,VSHQWWLPHGXULQJP\PRELOLW\ 3DROR0DKGL0DUFLQ 3D\PDQ=DUDU&KULVWLDQ:LOOLDPDQG1HQDG6SHFLDOWKDQNVWR'HVWDDQGKLVZRQGHUIXOIDPLO\ ;,; . XIX.
(27) $FNQRZOHGJPHQWV IRUKRVWLQJPHGXULQJP\VWD\LQ0DGULG7KDQN\RX6KHPVLD +DQDQ5HVWDXUDQW
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·WKDYHLWDQ\RWKHUZD\ /DVW EXW QRW OHDVW , ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN P\ SDUHQWV 0RP DQG 'DG \RX QHYHU VWRSSHG VXSSRUWLQJPHGXULQJP\\HDUVRIVWXG\$OWKRXJK,DPYHU\IDUDZD\IURP\RX\RXUORYHDQG SUD\HUVDUHDOZD\VFORVHWRP\KHDUW,DPDOVRJUDWHIXOWRP\\RXQJVLVWHUVZKRDUHJURZLQJXS WREHZRQGHUIXOKXPDQEHLQJV<RXDUHDOZD\VWKHVRXUFHRIP\PRWLYDWLRQDQGVWUHQJWKLQOLIH . ;; . XX.
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
(30) 6LPLODUO\ LQ (XURSH ERUGHULQJ WUDQVPLVVLRQ RSHUDWRUV LQYHVW LQ FURVVERUGHU WUDQVPLVVLRQV WR IDFLOLWDWH HOHFWULFLW\ PDUNHWLQWHJUDWLRQ %UDQFXFFL0DUWtQH]$QLGR
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
(32) . %DFNJURXQG. 7KLVWKHVLVIRFXVVHVRQWKHGHVLJQRIQDVFHQWHQHUJ\DQGLQGXVWULDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNV QHWZRUNVWKDWVWLOOQHHGHGWREHEXLOWDQGIRUZKLFKQHLWKHUVFRSHVL]HQRUSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUH FHUWDLQ0RUHVSHFLILFDOO\WKHHPSKDVLVLVRQWKHFRQFHSWXDOGHVLJQVWDJHRIWKHGHVLJQSURFHVV (QHUJ\ DQG LQGXVWULDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH QHWZRUNV KDYH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV WKDW PDNH WKH FRQFHSWXDO GHVLJQVWDJHRIFULWLFDOLPSRUWDQFH7KHVHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDUH x &DSLWDO LQWHQVLYH DQG ORQJ OLIHVSDQ 7KH GHVLJQ DQG GHYHORSPHQW QHZ HQHUJ\ DQG LQGXVWULDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH QHWZRUNV UHTXLUH D VXEVWDQWLDO DPRXQW RI LUUHYHUVLEOH LQYHVWPHQW $GGLWLRQDOO\ WKHVH LQIUDVWUXFWXUH QHWZRUNV KDYH D ORQJ OLIHVSDQ DQG WKH UHWXUQRQLQYHVWPHQWFRPHVORQJDIWHUWKHXSIURQWFRVWVDUHPDGH$VDUHVXOWWKHVWDNHV DUHKLJKIRUWKRVHZKRGHFLGHWRLQYHVWLQQHZLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDVVHWV x 0XOWLSOHDFWRUV 7KHGHYHORSPHQWRIQHZHQHUJ\DQGLQGXVWULDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNV LQYROYHPXOWLSOHDFWRUV /LJWYRHW
(33) RIERWKFRPPHUFLDODQGSXEOLFQDWXUH,QGLYLGXDO RUJDQL]DWLRQV RIWHQ ODFN VXIILFLHQW H[SHUWLVH DQG FDSDELOLW\ WR GHOLYHU HQHUJ\ VHUYLFHV GHPDQGHG RI WKHP 7KH QHFHVVDU\ UHVRXUFHV VXFK DV H[SHUWLVH PRQH\ LQIRUPDWLRQ SHUVRQQHO DQG PDQDJHPHQW DUH GLYLGHG DPRQJ GLIIHUHQW RUJDQL]DWLRQV $V D UHVXOW FRRSHUDWLRQKDVEHFRPHQHFHVVDU\LQRUGHUWRPDNHLQYHVWPHQWV,QWKHSULYDWHVHFWRUZH VHHFRPPHUFLDODFWRUVLQFUHDVLQJO\VHHNLQJUHIXJHLQVWUDWHJLFDOOLDQFHVDQGWKHIRUPDWLRQ RILQGXVWULDOQHWZRUNV /LJWYRHW
(34) :KHQPDUNHWVIDLOWRSURYLGHVXIILFLHQWSURYLVLRQ RI HQHUJ\ DQG LQGXVWULDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH QHWZRUNV SXEOLF DFWRUV FROODERUDWH ZLWK FRPPHUFLDODFWRUVLQWKHIRUPRIIRUH[DPSOHSXEOLFSULYDWHSDUWQHUVKLSV 6DPXHOVRQ
(35) 5HJDUGOHVV RI WKH QDWXUH RI DFWRUV LQYROYHG FRRSHUDWLRQ LV FKDOOHQJLQJ IRU WZR PDMRUUHDVRQV)LUVWO\DFWRUVKDYHGLIIHUHQWLQWHUHVWVDQGUHTXLUHPHQWVDQGWKH\GLVSOD\ VWUDWHJLF DQG RSSRUWXQLVWLF EHKDYLRXU WR DFKLHYH WKHLU JRDO +HUGHU HW DO
(36) &RPPHUFLDODFWRUVJHQHUDOO\VHHPWREHKDYHLQWKHLURZQLQWHUHVWZLWKLQDFRRSHUDWLRQ ZKLFKPD\QRWFRLQFLGHZLWKWKHJHQHUDOSXEOLF·VLQWHUHVW *DR
(37) 6HFRQGO\DFWRUV DUH UHIOH[LYH WKH\ LQWHUDFW DQG OHDUQ EXW LQ WKH SURFHVV WDNH GHFLVLRQV ZKLOH WKHLU LQIRUPDWLRQ LV LQFRPSOHWH WKXV OHDGLQJ WR LQGHFLVLRQ RU GHFLVLRQV WKDW DUH QRW VDWLVIDFWRU\ GH%UXLMQHWDO
(38) x 8QFHUWDLQW\ (QHUJ\ DQG LQGXVWULDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH QHWZRUNV DUH GHVLJQHG LQ DQ HQYLURQPHQW WKDW LV XQFHUWDLQ UHJDUGLQJ VWDNHKROGHU UHTXLUHPHQWV WHFKQRORJLFDO FKDQJHVPDUNHWGHPDQGFRVWDQGUHYHQXHUHJXODWLRQVDQGRWKHUDVSHFWV$PRQJWKHVH XQFHUWDLQWLHVWZRDUHPRVWUHOHYDQWWRWKHGHVLJQRIHQHUJ\DQGLQGXVWULDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUH QHWZRUNVHVSHFLDOO\DWWKHH[SORUDWRU\VWDJHRIWKHGHVLJQSURFHVV7KHILUVWXQFHUWDLQW\ . 2.
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¶EHWRQWKH ZURQJ KRUVH· *RQJ HW DO 0F&DUWHU HW DO
(40) 7KH XQFHUWDLQW\ DQG LQGHFLVLRQ DUH HVSHFLDOO\YLVLEOHGXULQJWKHFRQFHSWXDOGHVLJQVWDJHRIWKHGHVLJQSURFHVV+RZHYHUDWWKHVDPH WLPH DW WKH FRQFHSWXDO GHVLJQ VWDJH GHVLJQHUV DQG GHFLVLRQ PDNHUVKDYH D JUHDWHU GHJUHH RI IUHHGRPWRFKRRVHIURPGHVLJQDOWHUQDWLYHVWRFKRRVHZLWKZKRPWRFRRSHUDWHDQGWKHW\SHRI UHODWLRQVKLS0RUHRYHUWKHFRQFHSWXDOGHVLJQVWDJHGHWHUPLQHVWKHGLUHFWLRQWKHIOH[LELOLW\DQG ERXQGVRIWKHVXEVHTXHQWDQGPRUHGHWDLOHGGHVLJQVDQGXOWLPDWHO\WKHOLIHWLPHSHUIRUPDQFHRI WKHLQIUDVWUXFWXUH GH1HXIYLOOHHWDO
(41) $VRQHPRYHVDORQJWKHODWHUVWDJHVRIWKHGHVLJQ SURFHVVWKHGHJUHHVRIIUHHGRPVXEVWDQWLDOO\GHFUHDVHWKXVSODFLQJDOLPLWHLWKHUWHFKQLFDOO\RU ILQDQFLDOO\RQWKHDELOLW\WRLQIOXHQFHGHVLUHGDWWULEXWHV 'HVLJQ3HUVSHFWLYHV 7KHUROORXWRIDQHZHQHUJ\DQGLQGXVWULDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNHQWDLOVQRWRQO\GHVLJQLQJ WKH WHFKQLFDOSK\VLFDO FRPSRQHQWV HJ FDEOHV SLSHOLQHV
(42) EXW DOVR VWUXFWXULQJ LQVWLWXWLRQDO DUUDQJHPHQWV HJ FRQWUDFWV PDUNHWV
(43) WKDW FRRUGLQDWH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ DFWRUV WKDW GHYHORSRZQDQGRSHUDWHWKHP .RSSHQMDQDQG*URHQHZHJHQ
(44) 7KHLQVWLWXWLRQDOGHVLJQ DVSHFWRIQHZHQHUJ\DQGLQGXVWULDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNVFDQDOVREHYLHZHGDVWKHFKRLFHRI JRYHUQDQFH VWUXFWXUH 3DWHOL
(45) *RYHUQDQFH VWUXFWXUH UHIHUV WR WKH NLQG RI FRRSHUDWLYH UHODWLRQVKLSV VXFK DV MRLQW YHQWXUHV .RJXW
(46) SDUWQHUVKLSV 0LUDQGD 6DUPHQWR DQG 5HQQHERRJ
(47) DQG QHWZRUNV &KLOG DQG )DXONQHU
(48) XVHG E\DFWRUV 5HJDUGOHVV RI WKH JRYHUQDQFH VWUXFWXUH WKH YDOXH DQ DFWRU JHWV E\ LQYHVWLQJ LQ D QHZ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH QHWZRUN GHSHQGV QRW RQO\ RQ KRZ WKH SK\VLFDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH LV HQJLQHHUHG EXW DOVR KRZ UHODWLRQDO FRQWUDFWV WKDW GHILQH WKH DOORFDWLRQ RI ULVN DQG EHQHILW DUH VWUXFWXUHG 6DNKUDQL
(49) 7KXV GHVLJQ FKDOOHQJHV DFWRUV IDFH DW WKH FRQFHSWXDO GHVLJQ VWDJH KDYH ERWK HQJLQHHULQJ DQG LQVWLWXWLRQDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFV . 3.
(50) . 'HVLJQ3HUVSHFWLYHV. )URP DQ HQJLQHHULQJ GHVLJQSHUVSHFWLYH GHVLJQHUV IDFH FKDOOHQJHV LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH PRVW FRVWHIIHFWLYHVWUDWHJ\IRUGHSOR\LQJLQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNVLQWKHIDFHRIG\QDPLFUHTXLUHPHQWV DQG RSHUDWLRQDO HQYLURQPHQW )URP DQ LQVWLWXWLRQDO SHUVSHFWLYH DFWRUV IDFH XQFHUWDLQW\ UHJDUGLQJ WKH DOORFDWLRQ RI EHQHILWV DQG ULVNV XQGHU XQFHUWDLQ LQYHVWPHQW HQYLURQPHQW +RZ VKRXOGWKHFRQWUDFWEHVWUXFWXUHGWRJHQHUDWHVLJQLILFDQWWRWDOYDOXHDWDQDFFHSWDEOHOHYHORIULVN" +RZVKRXOGWKLVWRWDOYDOXHDQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGULVNVEHVKDUHGDPRQJVWWKHSDUWQHUV"7KHVHDUFK IRU D VROXWLRQ WR WKHVH GHVLJQ FKDOOHQJHV UHTXLUHV GHDOLQJ ZLWK XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH GHVLJQ &DUGLQ HW DO E GH 1HXIYLOOH HWDO
(51) DQGLQ ULVN DOORFDWLRQ DQG PDQDJHPHQW %OHQPDQDQG;X &KLOGDQG)DXONQHU &UX]DQG0DUTXHVD
(52) &RQYHQWLRQDOSUDFWLFHVUHJDUGLQJXQFHUWDLQW\DQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHV\VWHPVGHVLJQWHQGWRIRFXV RQHLWKHUFRQWUROOLQJWKHXQFHUWDLQW\E\GLUHFWO\LQWHUYHQLQJDWWKHVRXUFHDQGPLQLPL]LQJWKH DGYHUVH HIIHFWV RU WR GHVLJQ V\VWHPV ZLWK WKH FDSDELOLW\ WR KDQGOH XQFHUWDLQW\ ZLWK D FHUWDLQ UDQJH FRPPRQO\ UHIHUUHG DV UREXVW GHVLJQ 0XGFKDQDWRQJVXN HW DO
(53) 7KH FRQWUROOLQJ XQFHUWDLQW\ DSSURDFK GRHV QRW UHTXLUH PRGLI\LQJ WKH GHVLJQ FRQILJXUDWLRQ DQG LV LPSRUWDQW GXULQJV\VWHPVRSHUDWLRQEXWRIOHVVRIDQLVVXHGXULQJV\VWHPVGHVLJQ GH1HXIYLOOH
(54) 7KH UREXVW GHVLJQ SHUIRUPV ZHOO XQGHU D FKDQJLQJ HQYLURQPHQW ZLWKRXW WKH QHHG IRU SK\VLFDO FKDQJHVLQ WKH V\VWHP +RZHYHU WKHUH DUH VHYHUDO GUDZEDFNV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWKUREXVW GHVLJQV 6DOHKHWDO
(55) )RUH[DPSOHUREXVWGHVLJQVWHQGWREHRYHUVL]HGDQGFRVWO\$VWKHVHGHVLJQV DUHIL[HGWKH\ODFNWKHDELOLW\WRGRZQVL]HLQUHVSRQVHWRUHGXFHGH[SHFWDWLRQV LHQRWSRVVLEOH WR H[SORLW XSVLGH RSSRUWXQLWLHV
(56) 1HXIYLOOH GH 1HXIYLOOH DQG 6FKROWHV
(57) 0RUHRYHU UREXVWGHVLJQDSSURDFKHVRQO\FDSWXUHLQFUHPHQWDOXQFHUWDLQWLHV VXFKDVPRGHOOLQJDQRPDOLHV
(58) DQGGRQRWFRQVLGHUPRUHVXEVWDQWLDOXQFHUWDLQWLHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKIXWXUHFKDQJHV+HQFHWKH UREXVWGHVLJQDSSURDFKLVQRWDSSURSULDWHIRUGHVLJQLQJV\VWHPVWKDWQHHGWREHEXLOWLQVWDJHV LQRUGHUWRUHVSRQGWRXQFHUWDLQWLHVRYHUWLPH 6LPLODUO\FRQYHQWLRQDOO\LQIUDVWUXFWXUHFRQWUDFWGHVLJQDSSURDFKHVDUHEDVHGRQSUHGHILQHG IRUHFDVWVDQGDVVXPSWLRQV RQWKHPDLQPDFURHFRQRPLFYDULDEOHV FDSLWDOFRVWVLQIODWLRQHWF
(59) OHDGLQJ WR EDVHFDVH GHPDQG IRUHFDVWV DQG FRVW HVWLPDWHV &UX] DQG 0DUTXHV D
(60) 3DUWLFXODUO\ UHJDUGLQJ GHPDQG IRUHFDVWV KDYH SURYHQ WR EH OHVV WKDQ DFFXUDWH DQG VHYHUDO VWXGLHV LQ GLIIHUHQW VHFWRUV LOOXVWUDWLQJ D JOREDO WUHQG WR RYHUHVWLPDWH GHPDQG LQ ODUJH LQIUDVWUXFWXUHSURMHFWV GH1HXIYLOOH)O\YMEHUJHWDO
(61) 0RUHRYHUDWWKHFRQFHSWXDO GHVLJQVWDJHFRQWUDFWLQJSDUWLHVGRQRWKDYHIXOOLQIRUPDWLRQWRZULWHDFRPSOHWHFRQWUDFWWKDW IXOO\DGGUHVVHVHYHU\VWDWHRIWKHIXWXUH 5REHUWDQG7ULDQWLV
(62) $VDVROXWLRQFRQWUDFWLQJ SDUWLHV¶RYHUZULWH·FRQWUDFWVLQRUGHUWRUHGXFHWKHGHJUHHRIH[SRVXUHWRVLWXDWLRQVRXWRIWKH IRUHFDVW 0DUTXHVDQG%HUJ
(63) +RZHYHUVXFKNLQGRIGHVLJQDSSURDFKHVORFNLQFRQWUDFWLQJ . 4.
(64) &KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ SDUWLHV DQG XQGHUPLQHV WKH DELOLW\ WR DGDSW WR FKDQJLQJ FLUFXPVWDQFHV *ULPVH\ DQG /HZLV
(65) 6WXGLHVVKRZWKDWFRQWUDFW RYHUVSHFLILFDWLRQDQGULJLGLW\DUHWKHSULPDU\FDXVHRIORZ HIIHFWLYHQHVVIUHTXHQWUHQHJRWLDWLRQDQGLQPDQ\FDVHVFRQWUDFWXDOUHODWLRQVKLSVIDLO +DUWDQG 0RRUH *ULPVH\DQG/HZLV
(66) $Q HPHUJLQJ GHVLJQ SDUDGLJP IRU WKH GHVLJQ RI HQJLQHHULQJ V\VWHPV DQG FRQWUDFWV XQGHU XQFHUWDLQW\LVWKHFRQFHSWRIIOH[LEOHGHVLJQDSSURDFK7KHRUHWLFDOO\WKHHVVHQFHRIWKHIOH[LEOH GHVLJQ DSSURDFK LV WKDW LQWHQWLRQDO GHVLJQ VKRXOG HQDEOH ´GHVLJQ VROXWLRQV· LH FRQWUDFW RU SK\VLFDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUH
(67) WRSURDFWLYHO\GHDOZLWKXQFHUWDLQW\DQGFKDQJHWKHPVHOYHVDFFRUGLQJO\ RYHU D UDQJH RI XQFHUWDLQW\ VFHQDULRV GH 1HXIYLOOH DQG 6FKROWHV
(68) ,Q D IOH[LEOH GHVLJQ DSSURDFKWKHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVVLVQRWIRFXVHGRQDRQHWLPHVWHSEXWUDWKHURQVHYHUDO VXFFHVVLYH SRLQWVLQ WLPH ,Q HQJLQHHULQJ V\VWHPV GHVLJQ XQOLNH UREXVWQHVV IOH[LELOLW\ HQWDLOV FKDQJHV LQ VWUXFWXUH VFDOH IXQFWLRQDOLW\ DQG RSHUDWLQJ REMHFWLYHV DIWHU WKH V\VWHP KDV EHHQ LPSOHPHQWHG 6DOHK HW DO )ULFNH DQG 6FKXO]
(69) ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV WKH FRQWUDFW RU LQIUDVWUXFWXUHLVGHVLJQHGWRNHHSWKHRSWLRQVRSHQWRFRSHZLWKQHZRSHUDWLRQDOUHTXLUHPHQWV DVWKH\RFFXU$VSRVWXODWHGE\6LOYHUDQGGH:HFN
(70) DQG=KDRDQG7VHQJ
(71) IOH[LELOLW\ HQDEOHV GHVLJQ VROXWLRQV WR SURDFWLYHO\ GHDO ZLWK XQFHUWDLQWLHV 'HVLJQLQJ IRU IOH[LELOLW\ FDQ WUDQVIRUP ULVNV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK XQFHUWDLQW\ LQWR DQ RSSRUWXQLW\ GH 1HXIYLOOH DQG 6FKROWHV
(72) ,QWKLVVHQVHWKHFRQFHSWRIIOH[LELOLW\LVRIWHQUHODWHGWRWKHFRQFHSWRIUHDORSWLRQVZKLFK LV GHILQHG WHFKQLFDOO\ DV ´WKH ULJKW EXW QRW DQ REOLJDWLRQµ WR DGMXVW WKH GHVLJQHG V\VWHP IDYRXUDEO\LQWKHIDFHRIXQFHUWDLQW\ &DUGLQHWDOE
(73) $IOH[LEOHGHVLJQDSSURDFKFODLPVWR FRQVLGHUIXWXUHXQFHUWDLQW\LQGHVLJQUHTXLUHPHQWVDQGRSHUDWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQWLQWKHGHVLJQ DQGPDQDJHPHQWRIHQJLQHHULQJV\VWHPVWRDFKLHYHHQKDQFHGSHUIRUPDQFH 'RPLQJXHVHWDO 'HQJ HW DO
(74) 7KXV WKH IOH[LEOH GHVLJQ DSSURDFK VHHPV WR EH D SURPLVLQJ GHVLJQ DSSURDFK WR HIIHFWLYHO\ DGGUHVV XQFHUWDLQW\ GXULQJ WKH FRQFHSWXDO GHVLJQ RI HQHUJ\ DQG LQGXVWULDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNV 5HVHDUFK3UREOHP 5HFHQWO\UHVHDUFKHIIRUWVRQIOH[LEOHGHVLJQIRFXVRQZKHUHDQGKRZWRJHQHUDWHDQGHYDOXDWH IOH[LELOLW\ GXULQJ FRQFHSWXDO GHVLJQ RI DQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH V\VWHP ZLWK WKH JRDO RI DFKLHYLQJ GHVLJQ PHWKRGRORJLHV WKDW FRXOG HQKDQFH YDOXH LQ WKH IDFH RI XQFHUWDLQW\ ,Q WKLV UHJDUG GH 1HXIYLOOHDQG6FKROWHV
(75) SURSRVHGDSUDFWLFDOIRXUVWHSSURFHVVIRUGHYHORSLQJIOH[LELOLW\LQ HQJLQHHULQJV\VWHPVGHVLJQ
(76) UHFRJQL]HPDMRUXQFHUWDLQW\
(77) ,GHQWLI\IOH[LELOLW\VWUDWHJLHVWKDW DUHDSSURSULDWHWRGHDOZLWKWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLGHQWLILHGLQVWHS
(78) HYDOXDWHIOH[LEOHDOWHUQDWLYHV. . 5.
(79) . 5HVHDUFK3UREOHP. DQGFKRRVHWKHEHVWIRUWKHV\VWHPDQG
(80) LPSOHPHQWWKHLGHQWLILHGIOH[LELOLW\0RUHUHFHQWO\ WKHVDPHDXWKRUVSURSRVHGDVOLJKWO\GLIIHUHQWIRXUVWHSGHVLJQFDWDORJDVDV\VWHPDWLFDSSURDFK WRLPSURYLQJWKHGHVLJQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIHQJLQHHULQJV\VWHPVEDVHGRQWKHFRQFHSWRIIOH[LELOLW\ &DUGLQ HW DO D
(81) 7\SLFDO TXHVWLRQV RI LQWHUHVW LQ ERWK ZRUNV DUH +RZ FDQ IOH[LELOLW\ EH LQWHJUDWHG LQWR HQJLQHHULQJ V\VWHPV" +RZ FDQ IOH[LELOLW\ EH YDOXHG" :KDW WUDGHRIIV DUH DVVRFLDWHGZLWKGHVLJQLQJIRUIOH[LELOLW\ HJFRVWSUHIHUHQFHULVN
(82) " 'HVLJQLQJ IRU IOH[LELOLW\ LQYROYHV GHILQLQJ D VWUDWHJ\ DQG DQ HQDEOHU LQ GHVLJQ DQG PDQDJHPHQW &DUGLQ
(83) $VWUDWHJ\UHSUHVHQWVDVSHFWVRIWKHGHVLJQFRQFHSWWKDWFDSWXUHV IOH[LELOLW\ RU KRZ WKH QHWZRUN LV GHVLJQHG WR DGDSW WR FKDQJLQJ FLUFXPVWDQFHV $Q HQDEOHU UHSUHVHQWVZKDWLVGRQHWRWKHSK\VLFDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHGHVLJQDQGPDQDJHPHQWWRSURYLGHDQG XVHWKHIOH[LELOLW\LQRSHUDWLRQV7KHUHDUHWZRPDMRUW\SHVRIHQDEOHUVDOVR FDOOHGUHDORSWLRQV :DQJ
(84) 2SWLRQVWKDWLQYROYHWHFKQLFDOGHVLJQIHDWXUHVDUHUHIHUUHGWRDVUHDORSWLRQV¶LQ· HQJLQHHULQJV\VWHPVDQGRSWLRQVWKDWLQYROYHPDQDJHULDOGHFLVLRQVRQHQJLQHHULQJSURMHFWVDUH UHIHUUHGWRDVUHDORSWLRQV¶RQ·HQJLQHHULQJV\VWHPV :DQJ
(85) 6LPLODUO\ WKH LGHD RI IOH[LELOLW\ LV DWWUDFWLQJ DWWHQWLRQ LQ WKH GHVLJQ RI FRQWUDFWV LQYROYLQJ PXOWLDFWRU LQIUDVWUXFWXUH SURMHFWV ,Q D PXOWLDFWRU LQIUDVWUXFWXUH LQYHVWPHQW HQYLURQPHQW XQFHUWDLQW\LVQRWOLPLWHGWRWKHHQJLQHHULQJGHVLJQEXWLQFOXGHVWKHGHVLJQRIFRQWUDFWVEHWZHHQ DFWRUV :DONHUHWDO
(86) 'RPLQJXHVHWDO
(87) VWXGLHGWKHSRWHQWLDOEHQHILWVRIFRQWUDFWXDO IOH[LELOLW\ZLWKUHVSHFWWRLQIUDVWUXFWXUHFRQWUDFWVDQGFRQFOXGHGWKDWIOH[LELOLW\PD\FRQWULEXWH WR HQKDQFLQJ WKH SURMHFW·V HFRQRPLF HIILFLHQF\ &KLDUD DQG .RNNDHZ
(88) LQWURGXFHG WKH FRQFHSWRI´FRQWUDFWXDOIOH[LELOLW\DQDO\VLVµWRLPSURYHWKHHFRQRPLFHIILFLHQF\RILQIUDVWUXFWXUH GHYHORSPHQWFRQFHVVLRQFRQWUDFWV7KHFRQFHSWDUJXHVWKDWHPEHGGLQJIOH[LELOLW\PHFKDQLVPV VXFKDVVWUDWHJLHVWKDWDOORZIRUVKLIWLQJULVNVIURPRQHSDUWQHUWRWKHRWKHULQRUGHUWRLPSURYH WKHFRQWUDFWEHKDYLRXUGHSHQGLQJRQWKHHYROXWLRQRIXQFHUWDLQW\&UX]DQG0DUTXHV D
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´WKHREMHFWRIGHVLJQµZKHUHDVKDUGO\ . 6.
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
(91) 7KH YDOXH D JLYHQ DFWRU JHWV E\ HQJDJLQJ LQWR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DQ HQHUJ\ DQG LQGXVWULDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNVGHSHQGQRWRQO\RQKRZWKHSK\VLFDOQHWZRUNLVGHVLJQHGEXWDOVRRQ KRZ ULVN DQG EHQHILW DOORFDWLRQ FRQWUDFWV WKDW GHILQH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ DFWRUV DUH VWUXFWXUHG 6DNKUDQL
(92) +HQFH D QHZ FRQFHSWXDO IUDPHZRUN WKDW FRQVLGHUV WKH WHFKQLFDOHQJLQHHULQJSHUVSHFWLYHDVZHOODVWKHDFWRUSHUVSHFWLYHLQWKHGHVLJQRIIOH[LELOLW\LV UHTXLUHG 6HFRQGWKHFRQFHSWRIIOH[LEOHGHVLJQKDVQRWEHHQDSSOLHGWRWKHHQJLQHHULQJGHVLJQRIHQHUJ\ DQGLQGXVWULDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNV1HWZRUNVKDYHVSDWLDODQGWHPSRUDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWKDW H[KLELWDQHYROXWLRQDU\JURZWK WKH\VWDUWVPDOOLQVFDOHDQGJURZVSDWLDOO\WRFRPSOH[QHWZRUNV RYHUWKHLUOLIHWLPH6XFKFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIQHWZRUNVSUHVHQWXQLTXHGHVLJQFKDOOHQJHVFRPSDUHG WR ´EDWFKµ SURMHFWV H[HFXWHG ZLWKLQ D IL[HG WLPH SHULRG VXFK DV PXOWLSOH VWRU\ EXLOGLQJV GH 1HXIYLOOHHWDO
(93) RUPDQXIDFWXULQJSODQWV %HQMDDIDUDQG6KHLNK]DGHK
(94) )RUH[DPSOH WKHFXUUHQWJDVWUDQVPLVVLRQDQGGLVWULEXWLRQJULGVWDUWHGZLWKIHZSRLQWWRSRLQWFRQQHFWLRQV OLQNLQJDJDVVRXUFHWRIHZFRQVXPSWLRQVLWHV2YHUWLPHLWKDVJURZQLQWRDFRPSOH[SLSHOLQH QHWZRUN ZKDWLVQRZFDOOHGWKHJULG
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
(96)
(97) DQG 6KDSOH\
(98) WR PRGHOV WKDW FRQVLGHU XQFHUWDLQW\ 6XLMVHWDO 6DYYDDQG6FKROWHV
(99) 6LPLODUO\WKHOLWHUDWXUHRQULVNDOORFDWLRQ LQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH FRQWUDFWV KDV PDGH DGYDQFHV WR FRQVLGHU XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ WKHLU TXDQWLWDWLYH DQDO\VLVDQGPRGHOOLQJ0HGGD
(100) XVHGDJDPHWKHRUHWLFDODSSURDFKWRWKHDOORFDWLRQRIULVNV LQ WUDQVSRUW SXEOLFSULYDWH SDUWQHUVKLSV 2WKHU WHFKQLTXHV DSSOLHG WR WKLV SUREOHP LQFOXGH $UWLILFLDO1HXUDO1HWZRUNV -LQDQG=KDQJ
(101) RUIX]]\V\VWHPG\QDPLFV 1DVLU]DGHKDHWDO . 7.
(102) . 5HVHDUFK3UREOHP.
(103) +RZHYHUDOOWKHVHSUHYLRXVZRUNVODUJHO\IRFXVRQFORVHGFRQWUDFWVZKHUHWKHRQO\SD\RII FRPHV IURP WKH MRLQW LQYHVWPHQW DQG WKH HIIHFWV RI WKH DJHQWV· SUHH[LVWLQJ EXVLQHVVHV DUH LJQRUHG0RUHRYHUWKHPHWKRGVXVHGWRPRGHOWKHXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHIXWXUHSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKH FRPPRQSURMHFWDUHHLWKHUGHWHUPLQLVWLFRUUHODWLYHO\VLPSOLVWLFZKLOHWKHIXWXUHUHYHQXHVIURP PRVWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQYHVWPHQWVDUHVWRFKDVWLF /DVWHQHUJ\DQGLQGXVWULDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNGHVLJQGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSUREOHPVDUHRIWHQ IRUPXODWHG IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI D VLQJOH DFWRU HJ PDQDJHU
(104) )RU H[DPSOH SRZHU WUDQVPLVVLRQH[SDQVLRQSODQQLQJDQGGHVLJQSUREOHPVDUHGHILQHGIURPWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRIZKHQ WRLQYHVWKRZPXFKFDSDFLW\WRDGGZKDWW\SHRIJHQHUDWLRQLVQHHGHGDQGZKHUHWRORFDWHQHZ WUDQVPLVVLRQOLQHVDQGJHQHUDWLQJXQLWV /XPEUHUDVHWDO
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
(107) DUH XVHGWRFRPSDUHWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHIOH[LEOHGHVLJQVWUDWHJ\WRQRQIOH[LEOHGHVLJQVWUDWHJLHV 7KHHFRQRPLFYDOXH FRVWVDYLQJDQG139JDLQ
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
(109) . 6FLHQWLILF&RQWULEXWLRQV. 7R DQVZHU WKH ODVW UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ D FRPELQDWLRQ RI HQJLQHHULQJ GHVLJQ DQG FRQWUDFWXDO GHVLJQ SHUVSHFWLYHV LV HPSOR\HG 7KH UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ LV IRUPXODWHG LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI DQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUHSXEOLFSULYDWHSDUWQHUVKLSIRUGHYHORSLQJDPXOWLXVHU&2SLSHOLQHQHWZRUN$ GHVLJQSURFHGXUHWKDWDOORZVSDUWQHUV SULYDWHDQGSXEOLFDFWRUV
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· SUHH[LVWLQJ EXVLQHVVHV7RDGGUHVVWKLVJDSWKLVWKHVLVSURSRVHVDQHZPRGHOOLQJDQGDQDO\VLVIUDPHZRUN . 10.
(111) &KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ WKDW HPSOR\V FRQFHSWV IURP FRRSHUDWLYH JDPH WKHRU\ DQG UHDO RSWLRQV )LQDOO\ WKH WKHVLV GHYHORSV D IOH[LEOH GHVLJQ FRQFHSW IRU WKH GHSOR\PHQW RI LQIUDVWUXFWXUH QHWZRUNV YLD SXEOLF SULYDWHDUUDQJHPHQWV9HU\OLWWOHZRUNKDVEHHQGRQHWRGHYHORSDQLQWHJUDWHGDSSURDFKWKDW FRQVLGHUVERWKHQJLQHHULQJDQGFRQWUDFWXDOGHVLJQ$QRWDEOHH[FHSWLRQLVDZRUNE\6DNKUDQL
(112) ZKLFKSURSRVHVDFRGHVLJQSURFHGXUHIRUWKHIOH[LEOHGHVLJQRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHSURMHFWVYLD ULVNVKDULQJFRQWUDFWV7KLVWKHVLVDGGVWRWKHZRUNRI6DNKUDQL
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
(114) FRXOG EHQHILW IURP WKH LQVLJKWV UHJDUGLQJ WKH VWUXFWXULQJ RI DSSURSULDWH ULVN VKDULQJ PHFKDQLVPV DQG ZD\V RI EHQHILWV IURP IOH[LEOHGHVLJQVWUDWHJLHVGXULQJGHSOR\PHQWRIYLWDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQWKHIRUPRISXEOLFSULYDWH SDUWQHUVKLSV /LVWRI3XEOLFDWLRQV x 3XEOLFDWLRQ, <HVKDPEHO0HOHVH5RE6WLNNHOPDQ3DXOLHQ+HUGHU´$6RFLRWHFKQLFDOSHUVSHFWLYH WRIOH[LEOHGHVLJQRIHQHUJ\LQIUDVWUXFWXUHV\VWHPVµ3URF,(((,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFH RQ6\VWHPV0DQDQG&\EHUQHWLFV 60&
(115) %XGDSHVW+XQJDU\SS . . 11.
Powiązane dokumenty
Each control agent uses a model of its subnetwork and communication with its neighboring control agents to come to agreement on the evolution of interconnections and to
But even a Markov operator given by a strictly positive stochastic kernel and which has no invariant density can be non-sweeping from sets of finite measure (see [17, Remark 7])..
Ile gramów ka ˙zdej sztabki powinien wzi ˛ a´c złotnik, aby po stopieniu tych dwóch kawałków otrzyma´c sztabk˛e składaj ˛ ac ˛ a si˛e ze 172 g złota i 28 g miedzi. Rozwi
DAY-TO-DAY ORIGIN DESTINATION TUPLE ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION WITH HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN NETWORKS USING MULTIPLE DATA SOURCES..
It is worth mentioning here that on December 20, 2016, due to the northern storm, Barbara, causing spots (in northern Poland) gusts of wind, reaching a speed of 120 km/h, the
Po złożeniu urzędu ge- nerała zakonu, przeniósł się do Leśnej Podlaskiej, gdzie sprawował (do sierpnia 1940 roku) funkcje – najpierw podprzeora klasztoru, od 4 stycznia 1933 roku
Daar deze stroom moeilijk regelbaar is, en slechts indirect bepaald kan worden, is hier gebruik gemaakt van een complexe regeling.. Aan de hand van de hoogte
There are several well established methods for performing sensitivity and uncer- tainty analysis. The main distinction is usually made between stochastic and deterministic
