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Probabilistic performance assessment of a deep tunnel for a radioactive waste repository in French COx claystone

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Probabi

A pre waste analy was u The t they used proba Introductio One of the radioactive material pro probability probabilistic probability o Clay. This preliminary measureme this end, th characterise in the reliab having a pla Probabilist Figure 1: and The data probabilistic Figure 1 (lef Based on th line that is multiple env repeated fo of mean () 2nd Petrus-OPE

ilistic pe

w

eliminary pro e repository ytical mecha used. Particu test results have been in in a Monte ability of thre on main objec waste is the operty value of unsatisfa c framework of exceedan paper seek tunnel stab ents that are

he variability ed by reinter bility-based f astic zone. tic interpreta Peak and re Mohr circle from differe cally in this s ft) shows the he values  tangential to velop lines c r the data po ), standard d ERA Conferen

erforman

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Geo-Engi obabilistic st in the Fren nical model ular emphas from severa nterpreted st Carlo frame eshold excee ctives of rese e performan es of the ho actory perfo k based on nce of a cert ks to gain m bility assess e available in y in the me rpreting the t framework to ation of the esidual stre es (grey) and ent laborato ection to obt e peak and re

andin the

o the two cir can be define oints at resid eviation () nce on Radioa

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pository

Y. Li, P.J. V ineering Sect udy of the s nch Callovo-O assuming is is here is pla al laboratorie tatistically in ework. The p dance in the earch progra ce and safe ost rock, pro ormance. Fo an analytic tain plastic li more confide ment, by fir n the French echanical an test results fr o assess the test results ength of the d failure env ories showe

tain point sta esidual stren e left figure, rcles is defin ed, resulting

ual state. Th and the coef

active Waste M 61

ssment o

y in Frenc

Vardon, and tion, Delft Un Abstract stability of a Oxfordian cl sotropic elas aced on the es showed c this investig performance e extent of the

ams for feas ety assessm obabilistic ca or example, cal Drucker-imit around ence in the rst comparin h disposal dr nd deformat rom various performanc s Callovo-Ox velops (gree ed consider atistics used ngth of the C the Mohr cir ned (i.e. the in a range o he distributio fficient of var Management a

of a deep

ch COx c

M.A. Hicks niversity of T a circular drif laystone is p stic behaviou uncertainty o considerably ation. The o of the drift w e plastic zon sibility studie ent of dispo alculations ca , Arnold et -Prager soft the propose proposed a ng the pred rifts at the M ion propertie laboratories ce of a dispo xfordian arg en) reinterp able variab in the Monte COx clay at M rcles are first failure enve of values for ns of  c0 a riation (cov). and Geologica

p tunnel f

claystone

Technology ft excavated presented a ur and linear of mechanica variable pro btained stati was evaluate ne. es for deep osal tunnels. an be carrie al. [1] im tening mode d disposal d analytical mo dicted radial Meuse/Haute-es in the C . Then, the r sal drift in te illite at MHM reted from l ilities. This e Carlo simul MHM URL fro t plotted pair lope defining r c0 and Th and cr are sh A normal dis al Disposal

for a rad

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d for a radio and discusse r plastic soft al property v operty value stical results ed in terms geological r In the case ed out to de plemented el and inve drifts in the D odel when a displaceme -Marne (MH COx clayston results are u erms of the p M-URL (Afte left figure (r has been lation in the n om ANDRA a r by pair. The g c0 and ). he same pro hown in Figur stribution is

dioactive

oactive ed. An tening alues. s and s were of the repository of e of variable etermine the a simplified stigated the Dutch Boom applied in a ent with the HM) URL. To ne was first sed as input probability of r [2]) (left) right) interpreted next section. and GRS [2]. en a straight In this way, ocedure was re 2 in terms seen to fit to f e e d e m a e o t t f d . . t , s s o

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2 the data rea ensure relia Figure 2: N Figure laboratorie T The elastic (G3S, ENS processed p statistics de 2nd Petrus-OPE asonably we able failure e Normalised 3: Elastic m es (digitised and fitte Table 1: Poi Variab Initial co Residual c Friction Young’s m Tangent Poisson modulus an G, LML, GR probabilistica escribing the ERA Conferen ll. Note that nvelopes. histograms modulus and d from [3], li ed probabili nt statistics ble X S ohesion cohesion n angle modulus modulus n’s ratio nd Poisson’s RS, ANTEA) ally to define properties o nce on Radioa the distance s and fitted p d Poisson’s inear trend l ty density f s describing Symbol Un c0 MP cr MP  ˚ E MP Et MP  -s ratio ver-su-s are shown i e the point st of COx clays active Waste M 62 e between the probability d cr. ratio versus line added) functions (p g the propert nit X Pa 8.6 Pa 3.3 ˚ 20.7 Pa 4257 Pa 2100 - 0.29 s depth data n Figure 3 ( tatistics for E stones at MH Management a e circle centr density func s depth for (left and mi df) for varia ties of COx cov(X) = X 0.21 0.43 0.29 0.34 0.34 0.28 a for COx cl

left and mid

E and (Fig HM URL is sh and Geologica res is set to ctions (pdf) COx claysto ddle) and n ables E and  claystones X Distribu No No No No No No laystones fro dle) [3]. The ure 3 right). hown in Tabl al Disposal be larger tha for variable ones from d ormalised h right. at MHM UR ution type ormal ormal ormal ormal ormal ormal om different ese data hav A summary le 1. Note th an 10MPa to es  c0 and different histograms RL laboratories ve also been y of the point hat the mean o

s n t n

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2 of the tang assumed to Monte Carl The GCS d excavated w (fibre shotcr isotropic (H depth of -4 distributions the measure Results/Dis Figure 4: plastic soft Conclusion The prelim proposed p terms of the predict the a Acknowled The resear geological d limited liabi COVRA. References [1] Arnold, P Radioac (pp. 545 [2] Zhang, C Oxfordia [3] Miehe, B laborato Superieu [4] Guayacá Analysis Rock Me [5] Martín, L mechani Physics [6] Armand, Callovo-Rock Me 2nd Petrus-OPE ential modu o be the same lo simulatio drift has been

with a road h rete) was 21 H = 16.12 M 490 m. The s. The results ements [6]. scussion Determinist tening zone n inary asses robabilistic f e exceedanc anisotropic c dgments rch leading disposal, OP lity company s P., Vardon, P ctive Waste R -549). Spring C. and Rothf an argillite. A B. 2004. Mod ire souterrain ure des Mine án-Carrillo, L s of Long-Ter echanics and L.B., Hadj-Ha ical long-term and Chemis , G., Noiret, A Oxfordian cl echanics and ERA Conferen lus is assum e, as little da n n analysed i header, an o cm thick [4] MPa, h =v statistics in s are shown

tic radial dis e in grey and ssment com framework pr ce of a certa convergence to these re PERA. OPER y Elektricitei P.J. and Hick Repository in ger Internatio uchs, T., 200 pplied Clay S delisation de n de Meuse/ es de Paris. I L.M., Sulem, rm Anisotrop d Rock Engin assen, F., Tij m behaviour try of the Ea A., Zghondi, aystone at th d Geotechnic nce on Radioa med to be a ata is availab n this sectio ver excavati . The drift wa = 12.4 MPa Table 1 we in Figure 4 splacement d plastic res plastic zo pares favou rovides a wa ain plastic lim measureme esults has re RA is finance ts-Produktie ks, M.A., 201 Boom Clay. onal Publishi 04. Experime Science, 26( la zone endo Haute-Marne n French. J., Seyedi, D pic Converge neering, 49(1 jani, M. and A of the GMR rth, Parts A/ J. and Seye he Meuse/Ha cal Engineeri active Waste M 63 approximatel ble about the on. It has a c on (overcut) as parallel to

a) [5]. A pore

ere used in and the radi

(left), plasti sidual zone one limit (rp, urably well ay to assess mit. However ents. received fun ed by the Du maatschapp 5. Prelimina . In Engineer ing. ental study o 1), pp.325-3 ommagee in e (argilites d D.M., Ghabez ence in Drifts 1), pp.97-114 Armand, G., gallery in AN B/C, 36(17), edi, D.M., 201 aute-Marne U ing, 5(3), pp. Management a ly half that o tangential m circular secti of 15 mm is o H, and the water press the MC sim ial displacem ic radius aro in red) and ,lim) (right) with radial s the probab r, the idealise ding from t utch Ministry pij Zuid-Nede ary Assessme ring Geology of the hydro-m 36. duite par le c e l'Est). App zloo, S., Noi Excavated i 4. 2011. New NDRA’s Und pp.1872-187 13. Short-and Underground .221-230. and Geologica of elastic m modulus. on with a ra s used in the e initial in situ sure of uw,0 = ulation, assu ments (Figure

ound the tun probability displaceme ility of unsat ed isotropic he Dutch re y of Econom erland (EPZ) ent of Tunne y for Society a mechanical b creusement lied geology. ret, A. and A n Callovo-Ox numerical m erground Re 77. d long-term b d Research L al Disposal modulus and adius of 2.6 m e simulation. u stress state = 4.5 MPa wa uming trunc e 4 left) are c nnel openin of exceedan ent measure tisfactory per DP model is esearch pro mic Affairs an ), and is coo el Stability for and Territory behaviour of du puits d'ac . Ecole Natio Armand, G., 2 xfordian Clay odelling of th esearch Labo behaviors of Laboratory. J the COV is m. As it was The support e was quasi-as used at a cated normal compared to ng (middle, nce (Pf) of a ements. The rformance in s not able to ogramme on nd the public ordinated by r a y-Volume 6 the Callovo-cces au onale 2016. ystone. he oratory. drifts in the Journal of s s t -a l o a e n o n c y

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