Future transport

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Challenge the future

HF Auto Meeting 11th_{June 2014, Delft}

Future transport

Prof Dr Bart van Arem

Director TU Delft Transport Institute

Content

• Developments in transport

• Development of automated driving

• Congestion Assistant

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The Netherlands World rank

Area _{41543 km}2 ₁₃₅

Population _16730623 ₆₃

GDP per inhabitant _{€ 34822 17}

Infrastructure of the Netherlands

Waterway density Liechtenstein 0,18 Netherlands 0,15 Belgium 0,07 Bangladesh 0,06 Vietnam 0,05 Roadway density Belgium 5,03 Netherlands 3,29 Japan 3,20 Hungary 2,12 Jamaica 2,01 Railway Density Czech Republic, Switzerland, Germany 0,12

Belgium 0,11

Hungary 0,09

Cuba, Austria 0,08

Netherlands, Slovakia, Japan,

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Mainports of the Netherlands

1st_{in Europe}

10th_{World wide}

Largest non Asian port 3% Dutch GDP Quality: 1st_{in Europe} 4th _{world wide} Europe 4th_{passenger volume} 3rd_{freight volume}

Port of Rotterdam

_{Schiphol airport}

Transport in the Netherlands

Motorways with daily

volume over 180.000 vehicles Netherlands 15 United Kingdom 2 Germany 2 Haulier international transport performance (million tkm) Poland 97.456 Germany 60.028 Spain 58.872 Netherlands 39.036 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

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Congestion

0 50 100 150 200 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 225 km congestion is regular… (VID)

Morning peak Frequency < 80 km/h 37% < 60 km/h 3% < 55 km/h 1%

Evening peak Frequency < 80 km/h 42% < 60 km/h 6% < 55 km/h 3% (KIM,2012) Travel delay %

Traffic safety

Road fatalities per million inhabitants Sweden 28 United Kingdom 31 Netherlands 32 Malta 36 Ireland 45

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Development in transport demand

Freight and passenger transport flows Urbanization EU and world wide economic, demographic and political developments Climate change Travel behaviour Lifestyle, culture, demography, aging, on-line Connectivity and automation

Need for sustainability

200,000 people premature deaths per year in EU because of air-quality

Transport generates about 25-30% of Green House Gases

Smart use of available transport systems Life cycle management of transport infrastructure

Lack of space and money for new transport infrastructure

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Maintaining a world class

transport system

•World class transport is essential for our society and economy

•Past performance is no guarantee for the future •No single silver bullet: multi-disciplinarity is

crucial

•Cooperation government, knowledge institutes and private sector

•Technology for smart and sustainable transport •Behavioral and societal changes

Content

• Developments in transport

• Development of automated driving

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DAVI on the Amsterdam A10 motorway

12

th

_{november 2013}

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State of practice-supported driving

•Integrated Adaptive Cruise Control, Lane Keeping and Driver Monitoring commercially available

•High-end segment, low penetration rate

State of art – automated driving

• Hands-off, feet-off and brain-off (?) driving • Research prototypes (numerous)

• Special permits, special drivers, dedicated tracks

Eindhoven, 2008 Rijnwoude, 1998 Amsterdam, 2013

Potential impacts

Prevent traffic jams by better stability

Solve traffic jams by increased outflow Better distribution of traffic over network Less congestion delay Better energy efficiency No accidents (?) Better travel experience

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Will this come naturally?

Laws and regulations Technology Behaviour Money Transitions

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Examples of driverless cars in action?

Vienna Convention on Road Traffic, European

Member States Article 8.5

“ Drivers shall at all times be able to control their vehicles or guide their animals. When approaching other road users, they shall take

such precautions as may be required for the safety of the latter.”

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Frontiers that were no frontiers….

•Electronic braking

•Adaptive Cruise Control (including braking) •Lane Keeping

•Adaptive Cruise Control and Lane Keeping •Automatic Emergency braking

Recent amendment:

A car may drive itself, as long as the system "can be overridden or switched off by the driver".

A driver must be present and able to take the wheel at any time.

How we addressed regulations in

DAVI

•Adjusting legal framework: • Regulation exemption granting. • Dutch Vehicle Regulations, chapter 6.4. •Digital roadmap.

•A proposed method for admittance: 1. Simulation: virtual testing.

2. Closed: testing basic manoeuvres on a proving ground.

3. Limited with experienced drivers: in a pre-defined area. To gain experience.

4. Limited with unexperienced drivers: in a pre-defined area. Especially for Human-Machine Interface testing.

5. Unlimited: admittance without restrictions. Section 2, 3 and 4 with an exemption.

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Wetten en regels Technologie Gedrag (!) Geld Transities

Technology

• Radar • Long range plm 70 Ghz 100-150 m • Short range 24 GHz 20 m • Video camera • Now: monocular • Stereo vision

• Dedicated Short Range Communication

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Technological challenges

•From pilot to product

•Performance, robustness, safety •Software safety and security •Cost

•What are reasonable performance demands in Time-Between-Failure?

• Level 3: system monitors driving environment • Level 4: system provides back up performance

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Laws and regulations Technology Behaviour Money Transitions

Too many too mention…

•Attitude, willingness to pay, willingness to buy •System use, acceptance, adaptivity, adaptibility •Transition between levels of automation •Behavioral adaptation, driving skills •… but also:

•Better comfort leads to lower travel disutility •Better traffic efficiency leads to lower travel times Higher attraction car driving

Impacts on other transport modes, settling decisions?

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Wetten en regels Technologie Gedrag (!) Geld Transities

What will it cost? Who will pay?

In-car systems getting cheaper Consumer pays

Who pays for societal benefits?

High-tech vehicles on low-tech roads?

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Laws and regulations Technology Behavior Money Transitions

Two transition paths

connectivity

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Responsibility monitoring

driving environment and

back up performance

appear crucial steps

Towards ubiquitous information:

empowering the end-user!

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35 Overview of Field test at Sangubashi

Roughly 10% of vehicles are equipped with three-media VICS-compatible car navigation systems

To downtown Tokyo

Sensors detect traffic

congestion, standing vehicles and slow-traveling vehicles

Infrared sensor

Roughly 300 m VICS beacon

To Hachioji

Car navigation display

Simple diagram display of conditions at the start of a curve Installed on April 27 ー Message sign

Accidents covered by the service

0 40 80 120 160

FY2003 FY2004 FY2005

N u m b er o f a cc ide n ts p er y e a

r Rear-end collisions (low speed) Secondary accidents

Rear-end collisions (other) Other accidents

79% reduction against previous fiscal year 45 ₃₃ 7

Who is in control?

Extreme scenario: full freedom of choice

Extreme scenario: no freedom of choice

2015 2020

Possible scenario A: “Indiviual traveller moving within a societal context”

Possible scenario B:

“Optimal traffic system in which a traveller can move”

Trend breaches Informing, control and guidance go hand-in-hand Individual and market goals Collective and societal goals

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The price of self organisation

Self organisation vs central control

User equilibrium vs system optimum

Total travel time UE 30% higher than SO at high network load

Content

• Developments in transport

• Development of automated driving

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The congestion assistant

•Detects downstream congestion

•Visual and auditive warning starting at 5 km before congestion

•Active gas pedal at 1,5 km to smoothly slow down

•Takes over longitudinal driving task during congestion

Impacts on driving behaviour

Motorway scenario with congestion Impacts on driving behaviour

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Effects on mean speed

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13 November 2009

43 Longitudinaal bestuurdersmodel

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Study area: merging area A12 motorway,

Woerden, the Netherlands

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upstream detector downstream detector

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13 November 2009

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Speed upstream 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 Time Speed ( k m /h) A12 ITS Modeller Speed downstream 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 Time Speed ( k m /h) A12 ITS Modeller

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Resultaten

Speed upstream - 10% CA 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 Time (min) Sp e e d ( k m /h ) Reference 1500 m 500 m 1.0 s 0.8 s Speed upstream - 50% CA 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 Time (min) S p eed ( k m /h ) Reference 1500 m 500 m 1.0 s 0.8 s

Resultaten-2

Travel time (min) Delay (min) Delay reduction Free flow (110

km/h) 3.4 -

-Reference 5.7 2.3

-500 m / 0.8 s (10%) 5.0 1.6 30%

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Closing remarks…

The road to

automated driving…

Regulations, type approval Collect, analyse and publish large scale real-world experience

Case studies for regional transport networks

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www.davi.connekt.nl

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