of transport services on the economic development of Ukraine’s regions
5. Directions for further research
Based on the study results, we conclude that when applying the loss method, the results of assessing the level of the shadow economy of the market of trans-port services directly depend on the amount of declared losses of enterprises. In this case, the results obtained are to some extent distorted by the assumptions used in this method. In particular, it is quite possible that there is a real lack of profit in some unprofitable enterprises, which we considered to be conditionally unprofitable – those that receive a profit, but do not indicate it in the financial statements.
Under the conditions of quarantine restrictions on the operation of transport service enterprises, introduced to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was an increase in losses and the number of unprofitable enterprises. Ac-cordingly, under quarantine conditions, the losses of transport companies can no longer be considered as a direct sign of the existence of the shadow sector, as the losses are mainly due to objective factors resulting from changes in the global environment. Therefore, it is necessary to apply a different approach, which will assess the level of shadowing of transport services, based on the real situation in this field.
In terms of a systems approach, the transport industry is an entry-exit sys-tem. At the entrance resources are consumed (working time, fuel), and at the exit we receive the volume of services provided (cost of services, gross value added). Based on this approach, it is advisable to compare the intensity of fuel consumption by transport companies with the growth rate of services provided by them. Higher rates of increase in fuel use compared to the rate of growth of services provided indicate the presence of a shadow component in the activities of transport enterprises.
According to the method of “differences”, the total cost of providing services consists of the cost of official and covert activities (Fleychuk, 2008, p. 225). If the value of illegal services is Qil, and the amount of illegal profits is Pil, the total amount of services provided, taking into account the hidden activities is defined as:
Osum = Q + Qil = (C + P) + Pil, (2)
where:
Q and P – indicate the volume of legal services and profits, C – the total amount of costs in the process of providing services.
The impact of the shadow sector of transport services… 113 Accordingly, the volume of illegal services is calculated as:
Oil = (C + P) + Pil – Q. (3)
To determine the consumed services based on the assessment of the cost of services provided for the reporting period, taking into account the shadow component, we can use the equation:
Qsum1 = Q0 × Iq × Ip × If, (4)
where:
Q0 – the cost of services provided for the base period, Iq – the index of the physical volume of services provided, Ip – the index of prices for services,
If – the index of fuel consumption by enterprises providing services.
A comparison of the volume of services provided and consumed allows us to determine the volume of illegal services as the difference between Qsum and Qsum1, and the share of this difference from the total volume of services provided – accordingly determines the level of shadowing of the transport services market.
Thus, in a crisis situation due to the introduction of quarantine restrictions in the field of transport services, the assessment of the level of shadowing of this type of economic activity based on the method of “unprofitable enterprises”
does not allow to obtain correct results, as most enterprises have real losses.
and not through concealment of profits. Therefore, it is advisable to apply the method of “differences” taking into account not only the indices of the volume of services provided and prices for services, but also the index of fuel consumed, which will more accurately assess the difference between the volume of services provided and consumed.
6. Conclusions
According to the results of the assessment of the level of shadowing of the transport services market in Ukraine’s regions in 2019, the average value of the shadow economy ratio was 17.4%, and in some regions exceeded 20% of gross value added created in this type of economic activity. Despite the high values of the shadow economy, the impact of the illegal sector of the transport services market on the economic development of the regions was not significant. The results of regression analysis of panel data by regions of Ukraine in 2013-2019 revealed a sufficient inverse relationship between the coefficient of the shadow economy of the transport services market and income per capita: with an increase in the shadow economy by 10% income per capita decreases by 1.65%. At the same time, there is a weak direct relationship between the consumer price index
and the shadow economy of the transport services market, as well as a slight direct dependence of the share of small enterprises in the total number of enterprises in the region on the level of shadow services.
On the one hand, we can consider the relatively low influence of the shadow economy coefficient on the dependent variables as a positive result of regression modeling. This indicates a low level of threats to the shadow economy in the market of transport services for the economic development of the regions of Ukraine. On the other hand, the results of the study are negative, as the hypothesis of a significant impact of the shadow economy on the economic development of the regions has not been confirmed due to imperfect methodology and inaccuracy in estimating the shadow economy ratio, as well as significant latency of shadow operations. We see a partial elimination of this shortcoming in the application of the method of “differences” to assess the level of the shadow component of the transport services market, which will allow a more accurate assessment of the difference between the volume of services provided and consumed.
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Wpływ szarej strefy usług transportowych na rozwój gospodarczy obwodów Ukrainy
Streszczenie. Artykuł przedstawia analizę specyfiki nielegalnej działalności na rynku usług transportowych Ukrainy według głównych rodzajów transportu, a także ich relacje z innymi obszarami szarej strefy gospodarki. Dokonano oceny poziomu szarej strefy w sektorze usług transportowych w poszczególnych obwodach Ukrainy w latach 2013-2019 przez obliczanie współczynnika szarej strefy dla rodzaju działalności gospodarczej „Transport, magazynowanie, działalność pocztowo-kurierska” według metody „nierentownych przedsiębiorstw”. W wyniku przeprowadzonej analizy regresji dla danych panelowych oszacowano korelację między współczynnikiem szarej strefy rynku usług transportowych a głównymi wskaźnikami rozwoju gospodarczego obwodów Ukrainy w latach 2013-2019. W celu doskonalenia metodyki oceny poziomu szarej strefy rynku usług transportowych zaproponowano metodę uwzględniającą różnice pomiędzy wielkością świadczonych i konsumowanych usług.
Słowa kluczowe: obwód, usługi transportowe, przedsiębiorstwa nierentowne, współczynnik szarej strefy, analiza regresji, rozwój gospodarczy
Zeszyty Naukowe
Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej w Poznaniu 2021, vol. 93, no. 2 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.5916