The systemic transformation in Poland
The systemic transformation is considered to be a set of processes and changes occurring in politics, economy and society as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Blok in the late eighties of the 20th century (M. Dutkowski, T. Michalski, I. Sagan, T. Stryjakiewicz, 1999).
The systemic transformation takes on the following:
1. Political aspects:
a. the collapse of the Soviet Blok and decay of the totalitarian political system;
the expansion of NATO and EU;
b. setting up the foundations of a democratic state of law.
2. Economic aspects:
a. restoration of private property and market economy;
b. monetary, financial, tax, banking and insurance reforms;
c. free flow of capital, goods and technology.
3. Social aspects:
a. free flow of people and information; intensification of international con-tacts among people and organisations;
b. popularisation of consumer lifestyle;
c. increase of unemployment , poverty and social stratification.
Natalia Sypion–Dutkowska
Impact of the Systemic Transformation on the Threats
to Public Safety in Poland
Threats to public safety
All human beings and every society are surrounded by and are constantly aware of threats which come both from the environment and anthropogenic sources.
Threats to our life are in fact as old as mankind. It all started with threats stemming from forces of nature which up to this day constitute dangers we cannot eradicate or fully resist.
If certain areas of social and public life are taken into account then the following kinds of threats are distinguished: economic, internal, psychological (psychosocial), ecological and military (P. Tyrała, 1999).
Development of civilisation, particularly with respect to industrial activities, has brought about threats generated by man whose conduct and products are far from being ideal. We are surrounded by various and numerous threats mainly of unknown and most often of low incidence whose effects can hardly be predicted.
Moreover, we often seem to be unaware of some of them. There is no such phenomenon as a ‘zero risk’ activity. Production, processing, transport, storage – are only a few examples of activities which are never 100% safe. Development of civilisation, new technologies, settlement in areas previously considered unsafe (e.g. river valleys) make society still more and more exposed to risk (J. Żurek, 1999). Threats, as understood above, tend to concentrate in big cities (T. Horlick–
Jones, 1995).
The feeling of safety seems to be the opposite of the feeling in living under threat (J. Spiechowicz, 2000). Roughly saying, safety is felt when the level of threat is relatively low. To show it in graphic terms the following conceptual model may be drawn (Figure 1):
feeling of safety feeling of threat
reality Figure 1. Model of safety awareness
Source: P. Tyrała, 2000 (Rys. 1, p. 12).
This is a typical model suitable for sociological research. It is based on a segment of straight line where the both ends denote two contrary phenomena. A person subject to research shows the point which subjectively describes the reality at the moment of carrying out the research. The statement is not stable as the whole process of denoting safety awareness is dynamic.
Simple lists of threats lead to complex sets of dangers which do not allow of an explicit answer stating which feeling of threat should be considered to be one consistent entity. On the contrary, threat awareness incorporates numerous threats coming out of different phenomena existing around us. The problem a researcher
faces consists in lack of possibility of drawing up a consistent and closed list of existing threats. Therefore any list of threats should be regarded as open (cf. U. Beck, 2000). A general classification of threats may include:
1. Extraordinary threats – unexpected events or situations which develop dynamically posing danger to people’s health or life. Such events require immediate counteractions with the use of all measures available to effectively protect human health and life as well as property and the environment.
2. Constant threats – dangerous events or situations which exist continuously (e.g. ozone ‘hole’) or which can be expected within a yearly cycle (e.g. severe winter) or which occur as a result of planned events (e.g. mass public events), bringing negative effect on human health or life, property or the environment.
They require counteractions with the use of locally available measures remaining at local governments’ disposal to effectively protect human health and life, property and the environment.
An additional classification of threats distinguishes four types of threats in relation to their sources. According to this classification there are environmental, social, medical and technical threats. Only those threats which occur in Poland have been taken into account. Range of incidence, length of duration, frequency, negative effects on people, infrastructure and the environment, cost of counteractions and other accompanying threats have been defined for each of the types of threats. Duration and frequency have not been defined for constant threats as they are, by definition, permanent.
Local threats in Poland are counteracted at the level of gminas as the cost of compensation for damage or inflicted loss is not significant. Poviats and voivodships are responsible for covering destructive effects of threats on a regional scale. They have average financial means at their disposal. Threats on a national scale require big financial means provided by the national budget whereas threats of international importance are dealt with by international funds capable of covering losses on a huge scale.
Environmental threats
Threats to human life, health or property which are caused by the environment are called environmental threats. They result from extreme or catastrophic natural phenomena or from improper exploitation of natural resources. For the use of this paper the author has made an assumption that extraordinary environmental threats occurring in Poland may be restricted to floods, severe winter and strong wind (see A. Lisowski, 1993). Their scale varies from local to national. Their duration is also varied; the bigger they are the longer they last. They occur rarely but are dangerous for people and their property. They cause less damage to the environment than to infrastructure. Another extraordinary threat is severe winter.
Its consequences can be done away with in a few months. The cost of counteractions is either small or average (Table 1).
Constant environmental threats
This paper analyses the following threats: acid rain, excessive or improper use of chemicals in agriculture, the ozone ‘hole’ and global warming (green house effect).
Most often they appear to be global problems and therefore cause serious damage to the environment lasting for many years. The ozone ‘hole’ is the most dangerous to people as it inflicts numerous diseases which can hardly be cured, epidemic diseases and allergies (A. Aase, G. Bentham, 1994). The green house effect results in the greatest number of indirect threats which can hardly be avoided (Table 2).
Social threats
Social threats affect human health, life and property as well as the environment.
They are cause by negative effects exerted by people on other people or public organisations. These threats may come in the form of:
• well organised or spontaneous social groups using terror;
• permanent disorder of economic and political balance.
For the purpose of this paper the following phenomena are regarded as extraordinary social threats: wars, terrorism, riots mutinies, economic and political crises. Their territorial range and frequency are varied and therefore they may
Effects exerted on
take on different values – from the smallest to the greatest. These are considerable groups of people rather than property that find themselves at the receiving end of negative effects. Casualties are frequent in such cases. If infrastructure suffers then living conditions of the population deteriorate. Extraordinary social threats rarely affect the environment. They occur relatively rarely in small areas (Table 3).
Constant social threats include: areas of permanent underdevelopment and poverty, crime, mass public events. They occur on a small scale, except for crime which takes place all over the world. Permanent social threats greatly affect social welfare, deteriorate health conditions, lead to social bonds being weakened or broken. Sometimes social threats result in death. Living conditions get worse mainly due to property devastation and environment degradation (Table 4).
Medical threats
Medical threats affect human health and life. They come from diseases (espe-cially epidemic diseases) road accidents and poisoning. They require special medi-cal treatment.
Only severe cases of epidemic diseases are considered to be extraordinary medical threats. They are characterized by rapid development. The occur very
Table 2. Constant environmental threats
Source: author’s own analysis.
Table 3. Extraordinary social threats
Source: author’s own analysis.
Source: author’s own analysis.
Table 4. Constant social threats
rarely while their territorial range varies from local to international. The length of time varies from very short to very long. Although a great number of people are involved suffering serious health consequences including loss of life, the envi-ronment is left intact. Duration of effects is insignificant. They are not accompa-nied by other threats (Table 5).
An assumption has been made that constant medical threats include:
‘benevolent’ epidemic diseases, road and industrial accidents, poisoning, cancer, AIDS, inflammation of the liver (type A, B, C, D), allergies and diseases of blood circulation. Their range varies from local to international. They mainly affect health,
being fatal in some cases. They hardly have any impact on the environment or local infrastructure. Their duration is of considerable importance as they may last as long as several years. Cost of compensation varies from very low to extremely high. Medical threats are the only ones that are not accompanied by any other threats (Table 6).
Technical threats
Technical threats affect human health, life and property and the environment.
They are caused by industrial processes, basic and supplementary products and their improper use as well as excessive use of technical devices, machinery and materials.
Extraordinary technical threats include: a breakdown of a nuclear power station, leak of sewage, gas or poisoning substance, maritime and aeroplane catastrophes
Source: author’s own analysis.
national long-term disease – – from a few years
to a few decades
explosions and building catastrophes. These threats are most often single events which occur rarely and last for a short time. They cause very serious damage to all kinds of infrastructure including various buildings. Extraordinary technical threats disrupt people’s daily routines (e.g. evacuation), cause diseases and heavy casualties. They also result in the environment being seriously damaged, mainly by contamination of the local area. Except for a nuclear power station breakdown all other technical threats cause damage which do not last long. Usually financial measures remaining at the disposal of gminas, poviats and voivodships are sufficient to counteract such threats (Table 7).
Constant technical threats dealt with in this paper include emissions contaminating surface and ground water receptacles, atmosphere as well as smog, noise, vibrations caused by traffic, harmful emissions from legal and illegal rubbish dumps, electromagnetic radiation caused by electricity mains, broadcasting stations and other radioactive substances and devices.
Effects inflicted on
Table 8. Constant technical threats
Source: author’s own analysis.
Constant technical threats lead to a general deterioration of living conditions, mainly by degradation of the environment and damage done to infrastructure.
Almost all technical threats exert a harmful effect on human health contributing to its deterioration. Constant technical threats usually bring about lasting effects.
It may take from a few to more than ten years to get rid of them. Constant techni-cal threats are accompanied by many other threats (Table 8).
An attempt at recapitulation
While working on this paper an assumption was made that the systemic transfor-mation in Poland may have either positive or negative influence on public safety.
Positive influence is understood as soothing and toning down all threats and their effects whereas negative influence is meant as generating and worsening them. The systemic transformation in Poland has brought about various forms and procedures of ‘the state of law’ on local, national and international levels.
They are accompanied by information being made more accessible to the public,
Threats soothed and toned down
Table 9. Soothing and toning down impact of the systemic transformation on threats to public safety in Poland
Source: author’s own analysis.
Spreading consumer lifestyle acid rain, ozone ‘hole’, global warming
Table 10. Generating and worsening impact of the systemic transformation on public safety in Poland
increase of social awareness and widespread application of modern and safer technology.
The systemic transformation in Poland affects positively all groups of threats in all their aspects (Table 9). The most positive phenomena have resulted from capital, goods and technology freely coming into the country. All four groups of positive aspects show here tangible links and connections. Aftereffects of the trans-formation have the most soothing impact on environmental phenomena, espe-cially on flood threats. Multifunctional impact of the transformation have mostly affected social threats, such as economic and political crises, so typical of ‘real socialism’ before the collapse of the previous system in Poland. Thanks to free exchange of technology and goods, not to mention improved international rela-tions, it is possible to more effectively fight social diseases. As far as technical threats are concerned limiting a possibility of a nuclear power station breakdown seems to be the most significant.
The systemic transformation in Poland also contributes to generating new threats to public safety as well as worsening old ones (Table 10). These threats are mainly related to public matters which remain under the influence of various transformation processes, such as local wars (as the threat of a global conflict has recently been ruled out), terrorism and crime. Making consumer lifestyle more
common leads to an increase in all groups of threats, from global environmental threats to intensification of social diseases.
The characteristics of the impact of transformation processes on different threats is to some extent ambiguous and therefore cannot be defined as entirely good or bad. However, the character and extent of positive effects undoubtedly prevail over bad effects. Citizens of the countries carrying out transformation processes live in a safer world. At the same time one should remember that, paradoxically enough, the general feeling is quite the opposite. Most people think that freedom and democracy have brought about more risk than safety and peace.
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Introduction
The downfall of socialism in the Middle and Eastern Europe led in the last decade to considerable socio–economic changes in numerous countries of the region.
Paving the way from Council for Mutual Economic Aid and Warsaw Treaty Organization to the European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization is symbolic of such changes. Most of the countries which belonged to the former socialist bloc are now members of NATO. Several countries are going to join the European Union in 2004. This turn of events in politics and economic conditions required a costly transformation of the economy.
Poland is one of the leaders of this process. The basic transformation of the economy was carried out in the early 90s including intensive privatization of the state–owned firms and development of enterprise. The above mentioned changes laid the foundations of the dynamic economic growth of the mid 90s. An attempt to reform the public administration and public service sectors was made in the late 90s. Further reforms concerning administrative division of the country, so-cial insurance, education and health service were implemented.
The structural reform of the economy and a new geopolitical situation necessi-tated radical changes in the army. Low budgets allocated to the army year by year contributed to further reductions of the stuff in all kinds of military forces.
At the same time the Polish Army had to be reorganised and dislocated as a result of joining the NATO. These changes have been carried out according to the gov-ernment legislation called “The programme of restructuring and technical modernisation of military forces in the years 2001–2006”. The programme, among other things, predicts the complete closure of 71 military garrisons.
The main aim of this paper is to define sensitivity of local socio–economic systems to the process of garrison closures. This sensitivity is a derivative of the current economic situation of a given area, quality of human resources, distance to big cities as well as the importance of a garrison for the local economy which can be defined on the basis of relations between the size of the existing military units and the size of the entire local economy (this relation can be defined, for example, as a relation of the number of workplaces in both entities).
Maciej Tarkowski