Summary
Highly developed countries have been building their economies based on knowledge. The first stage of obtaining knowledge is collecting data and their ade-quate analysis and interpretation. The prices of agrifoodstuffs are a factor affecting the consumer shopping decision-making. An adequate analysis of agrifoodstuffs prices can therefore determine the marketing decisions of the sellers allowing mar-ket position stability.
Keywords: Product Prices, Phenomena Dynamics Analysis, Agrifoodstuffs
1. Introduction
Changing market conditions of the last decade of the 20th century were also reflected in com-merce. After 1990 the first foreign large-area shop chains appeared in the Polish retail sale sector. Offering low prices, product innovation, variety of assortment, they provide a great challenge for domestic sellers and distributors1. In the countries of a large economic potential there is a belief that one of the factors which can facilitate better results, frequently with low financial inputs, is knowledge.2 The role of knowledge has been growing both in industry and in the dynamically developing service and agricultural sectors. Knowledge has become a resource without which no institution can operate, frequently determining the competitive position. According to Wołoszyn, a rational knowledge management calls for its skillful management.
Knowledge is created in a two-stage process. 3 As the first stage, Wołoszyn points to the se-lection and analysis of data which, according to the author, would be of no greater significance without being ordered, and data processing into pieces of information. Pieces of information, how-ever, allow us to see different relations and dependencies and to interpret events. At the second stage there is a transformation of the earlier transformations into knowledge. Managing knowl-edge, treating it as a source of information, covers the collection of data resources and a fast loca-tion and processing using the techniques of computer science. 4
From the point of view of consumer, the price of agrifoodstuffs, understood as an indicator of the cost and product quality5, is a very important issue. Producers must determine it at such level
1 Domaski T., 2001. Strategie marketingowe duych sieci handlowych. Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN Warszawa – Łód, 7. 2 Wołoszyn J., 2005. Istota zarzdzania wiedz. Zarzdzanie wiedz w agrobiznesie w warunkach polskiego członkostwa w Unii Europejskiej. SGGW Warszawa, 76.
3 Wołoszyn J., 2005. Istota zarzdzania wiedz. Zarzdzanie wiedz w agrobiznesie w warunkach polskiego członkostwa w Unii Europejskiej., SGGW Warszawa, 77.
4Miller R.C., 2002. Biblioteki a aktualne trendy w zarzdzaniu. Elektroniczny Biuletyn Informacyjny 8, 3-4. 5 Antonides G., Raaij W.F. 2003. Zachowanie konsumenta. Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN Warszawa 21.
which would be acceptable by the buyer. The price which is too low can suggest bad quality, while the one which is too high determines the volume of sales.
The aim of the present study is a diagnosis of prices in supermarkets and hypermarkets as well as a detailed statistical analysis allowing a presentation of methods of transforming a large amount of data into pieces of information and then knowledge.
2. Research methodology
The diagnosis of agrifoodstuffs prices was made using uncontrolled, hidden and standardized observation. Prices were recorded in large-area shops located in Bydgoszcz to facilitate detailed recording of price policy trends. (Table 1)
Table 1. Price research schedule over 1998 - 2003 1998 Makro, MiniMal, ETC, Netto, Miko
1999 Makro, MiniMal, Intermarche, Géant 2000 Makro, MiniMal, Intermarche, Géant
2001 MiniMal, Intermarche, Géant, TESCO, Auchan, AS, Jumbo, 2002 Hypernova, AS, MiniMal, Auchan, Géant, TESCO, Intermarche 2003 Hypernova, AS, MiniMal, Auchan, Géant, TESCO, Intermarche Source: own elaboration
The study covered 42 consumer products divided into 16 groups: jams, canned vegetable food, frozen foods, fruit, vegetables, milk, yoghurts, margarines, oil, cheese, carbonated soft drinks, noncarbonated soft drinks, pasta, ketchup, meat and baby-food juice Bobo Fruit.
The agrifoodstuffs prices were recorded over 1998 – 2003, and then processed with MS Excel spreadsheet. The price policy study was carried our regularly over 6 years, which provided a total of 17 160 cases (Table 2). After the transformation, the composition and decomposition of tables with unprocessed data and after basic calculations a total of 21 results tables were obtained, cov-ered by a detailed analysis.
Table 2. Data recordings made in price study over 1998 - 2003 Year
1998 1999 2000 2001* 2002 2003
Number of shops 5 4 4 7 7 7
Number of months 12
Number of products offered 44
Algorithm = number of shops x number of months x number of
products offered
Total 2640 2112 2112 2904 3696 3696
Total (sum for all the years) 17160
Source: own elaboration
*in two shops: TESCO and Auchan two and four price recordings were made, respectively, as the hypermarket was opened during the year.
The data collected were verified with statistical analysis, making data transformation into pieces of information and then knowledge. An analysis of time series was applied.
A time series is a set of information with a variable, ordered according to time.6 A develop-ment of the phenomenon in time frequently depends on some regularities the identification and description of which are the objective of the analysis.7 In the theory of economic time series, most frequently the following time series components are distinguished (development trend, seasonal fluctuations as well as market conditions and random fluctuations). The development trend shows a systematic single-directional changes in the level of the phenomenon studied (increase or de-crease), whereas periodical fluctuations are rhythmical fluctuations of a specific course and for the time series without a trend they are easily determined as quotient of means for the sub-periods and the total mean. Periodical fluctuations for a time series with the trend are a much more complex issue and here one shall compare the initial time series with the equaled series.
The basic meters of the dynamics of the phenomena include statistical indices: absolute and relative value increases and dynamics indices: individual and aggregate.8 If we use the previous period as a reference point, then the increases (index) are called the chain increases and in the case of a constant base – single-base increases. The increases point to differences in the value of the character studied, while the indices are provided by dividing the value of a given phenomenon over the period studied to the base period. The chain index presents e.g. the ratio of the level of turnover of the shop in a given year to the value in the previous year. The index value over 100% points to an increase in turnover. To express the dynamics of changes also the period mean rate of changes is used, which is the geometric mean of chain indices.
The price data collected are given in time series. Due to a large amount of data, the analyses were carried out using mean values in a given year. Tables cover individual single-base indices (the year in which the study was launched in a given shop has been assumed as the base-year) and individual chain indices, as well as the year-mean rate of changes was calculated.
6 Aczel A.: Statystyka ... op. cit.
7 Jówiak J., Podgórski J., 2001. Statystyka od podstaw. Polskie Wydawnictwa Ekonomiczne Warszawa, 451. 8 Sobczyk M., 2000. Statystyka. Podstawy teoretyczne, przykłady – zadania. Wydawnictwo UMCS Lublin, 343.
3. Results
The analysis shows that the prices in 208 cases of products were increasing in the period stud-ied, and for 126 products there was recorded a decrease. An increase in prices over 10% a year concerned 50 products. The highest increase in the price was recorded for Kotlin ketchup – 81.04% a year. The decrease in the price below 10% a year was found in 42 cases. The highest decrease was recorded for the price of Heinz ketchup, by almost 40%. For a few products the price remained almost the same, the index of the year mean rate of changes ranged from zero to plus – minus one in 25 cases (Table 3).
Table 3 Year mean rate of changes [%] in agrifoodstuffs prices Year mean rate of changes [%]
Product offered
Intermarche Makro TESCO Hypernova MiniMAL Auchan AS Geant
JAMS Łowicz 5.24 14.86 7.98 0.73 1.74 -3.59 1.45 9.82 Stovit 2.39 7.42 2.73 -0.78 3.00 13.03 -3.07 6.62 Materne 7.46 13.66 6.79 8.95 7.51 14.79 5.06 4.85 CANNED FOODS Bonduelle corn 5.41 10.06 -1.03 6.08 5.92 4.71 -4.68 9.15 Bonduelle pea 4.10 7.16 3.30 3.95 5.04 3.25 5.60 8.62 Pudliszki corn 2.00 13.92 6.74 3.72 4.60 1.18 0.54 5.09 Pudliszki pea 6.98 -1.70 1.66 3.57 4.53 12.65 6.62 6.13 FROZEN FOODS Bonduelle pea 8.98 - 0.31 10.18 7.82 -1.06 9.06 7.99 Bonduelle carrot 18.45 - 19.54 31.54 19.33 3.41 39.72 - Hortex pea 10.52 - 8.44 -9.36 1.70 7.36 -1.24 17.73 Hortex carrot 7.68 - -26.92 3.17 5.52 -1.40 2.56 5.27 FRUIT Apples 8.59 26.44 -2.60 -18.27 -9.64 4.76 0.81 -14.08 Oranges 9.64 2.50 3.52 -11.73 0.38 13.66 11.00 Banana -4.45 15.70 21.07 -2.20 -4.39 -1.84 -0.73 -0.17
Intermarche Makro TESCO Hypernova MiniMAL Auchan AS Geant
Vegetables Potato -3.03 -9.53 7.18 -0.71 30.25 -6.09 -12.45 Onion 2.49 -10.75 -13.16 -7.04 -1.51 10.94 1.94 2.58 Carrot 1.28 6.63 18.44 -4.24 -5.79 25.40 -4.74 -6.01 White cabbage -0.37 27.70 7.85 -27.61 0.18 -12.94 -8.18 -11.79 MILK Łowicz 4.75 8.11 5.88 -0.34 3.97 30.16 32.06 5.60 Mlekovita 2.03 1.38 6.41 -0.45 0.72 32.49 -2.01 4.55 JOGHURTS Bakoma -1.85 -1.09 -4.17 -1.31 -6.79 -5.25 -10.03 -2.27 Danone -2.23 4.16 -7.92 -6.91 -6.79 -13.84 -8.60 -7.97 MARGARINES
Year mean rate of changes [%]
Product offered
Intermarche Makro TESCO Hypernova MiniMAL Auchan AS Geant
Kama 0.64 6.38 7.23 5.52 -0.60 29.81 1.63 3.35 Masmix 8.68 9.58 41.45 -10.74 4.60 2.84 15.42 15.93 OIL Kujawski uniwer-salny -2.58 -15.93 -0.15 0.10 -3.13 9.28 9.33 -1.07 Olvit - - - 1.79 -0.19 6.32 7.85 - HARD CHEESE
The most
expen-sive one -12.69 -17.03 -36.76 -2.82 -17.95 -9.76
-29.57 -16.91
The cheapest one 3.23 21.14 -5.67 5.34 11.34 -7.93 -5.73 2.70
CARBONATED SOFT DRINKS
Olympia Nata -16.27 11.25 - 29.54 0.70 -1.86
-18.88 -
The cheapest soft
drink 3.17 12.82 17.42 -32.96 -15.13 -25.12 -1.06 13.25 Hellena - - - - 16.94 0.88 - - NON- CAR-BONATED SOFT DRINKS Hortex 0.70 -24.26 -3.88 -4.22 -3.76 -9.11 0.84 2.33 Fortuna 2.14 -23.97 3.97 -10.17 1.94 2.95 -1.32 -9.61 Tymbark -2.36 -18.60 7.15 -1.39 1.15 -0.21 -1.75 2.91 PASTA Malma 3.94 14.89 5.45 8.99 8.33 4.07 -3.79 3.99 KETCHUP Kotlin 15.19 0.66 3.75 40.97 15.55 36.36 81.04 15.89 Pudliszki -0.92 - 43.12 7.61 22.57 -18.35 -29.22 4.22 Włocławek 5.36 -36.15 14.47 0.93 -16.49 0.36 73.85 37.62 Heinz -17.52 -5.57 -1.45 -3.04 -1.46 2.76 -39.35 -12.54 Bobo Fruit 4.99 11.14 13.35 9.83 11.14 12.74 3.01 2.95 MEAT Cooked ham 5.24 1.22 12.14 -10.50 -1.91 0.45 0.15 7.26 The cheapest sausage -2.57 -5.43 -5.44 4.34 0.52 -2.63 -13.45 5.02 The most
expen-sive sausage 2.44 15.33 -23.84 -13.84 17.98 4.28
-13.86 -0.17
Kabanos sausage 4.39 3.35 -10.53 -2.40 -4.04 4.15 1.20 3.49
Source: Own elaboration
Over the period studied it was also observed e.g. that a category of product of the lowest price dispersion was yoghurt category, and of the highest dispersion – hard cheese. The values of the standard deviation for both categories are given in Figs 1 and 2.
Hard cheese 11,17 5,64 12,91 3,23 10,22 8,61 0 5 10 15 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 zł
Fig 1. Hard cheese – standard deviation over 1998 - 2003 Source: Own elaboration
Yoghurt 0,09 0,03 0,02 0,04 0,05 0,06 0 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,1 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 zł
Fig 2. Yoghurt – standard deviation over 1998 - 2003Source: Own elaboration
4. Conclusions
Knowledge in the contemporary economy is becoming one of the most important economic re-sources. The amount and accuracy of the data collected often affect the quality of the information collected from it. The statistical analysis allows us to capture data and to provide an adequate interpretation.
The year mean rate of changes in the agrifoodstuffs prices over 1998 - 2003 most often fluctuated in the range of + 10%. The highest dispersion of the price results was found for hard cheese and the lowest for yoghurts.
Bibliography
1. Aczel A., 2000. Statystyka w zarzdzaniu. Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN Warszawa, 20. 2. Antonides G., Raaij W.F. 2003. Zachowanie konsumenta. Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN
Warszawa 21.
3. Domaski T., 2001. Strategie marketingowe duych sieci handlowych. Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN Warszawa – Łód , 7.
4. Jó wiak J., 2001. Podgórski J.: Statystyka od podstaw. Polskie Wydawnictwa Ekono-miczne Warszawa, 451.
5. Miller R.C., 2002. Biblioteki a aktualne trendy w zarzdzaniu. Elektroniczny Biuletyn In-formacyjny 8, 3-4.
6. Sobczyk M., 2000. Statystyka. Podstawy teoretyczne, przykłady – zadania. Wydawnic-two UMCS Lublin, 343.
7. Wołoszyn J., 2005. Istota zarzdzania wiedz. Zarzdzanie wiedz w agrobiznesie w wa-runkach polskiego członkostwa w Unii Europejskiej. SGGW Warszawa, 76.
MAŁGORZATA MICHALCEWICZ ATR Bydgoszcz
Katedra Informatyki w Zarzdzaniu Ul. Kaliskiego 7 bud. 3.1
