Akademia Rolnicza Szczecin
Summary
The main objective of AWARE research project is to develop a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) that will allow stakeholders to meet the often contradicting challenges of integrated water resources planning and river basin management in semiarid and arid areas without compromising natural resources of future genera-tions. This SDSS will enable planers to execute the following tasks: 1) to perform exploratory modelling in order to find robust strategies for future development, 2) to perform failure risk assessment of a given strategy taking into account the intrinsic model uncertainty, and 3) to carry out multiobjective optimization. With such a tool, stakeholders can test various strategies for integrated water management and adapt their planning strategy to the most recent long term projections. The core of the SDSS will be a fully integrated, low-order, parameter efficient simulation model based on sound existing physically based, distributed models which portray the be-haviour of the different natural subsystems. The predictions of this simplified, but robust, integrated model will deal with economic and demographic development, land use and climate changes as well as the impact and management of hydrological extremes which will be assessed taking into account the experience and feedback from both stakeholders and potential users of this SDSS. This project also aims to bring together relevant local institutions dealing with natural resources manage-ment so that coordinated actions will be launch in the future. Based on the results of this project, local, regional, and federal authorities will be able to prepare policy guidelines and bylaws that will increase the likelihood of improving the quality of life of the population while preserving natural ecosystems.
Keywords: Integrated Water Resource Management, Land Use, Spatial Data Bases, SDSS, Arid And Semi Arid Areas, Risk Assessment, Extreme Events
1. Introduction
Semi arid and arid eco-hydrosystems are very sensitive to changes either induced naturally or by human activities. In particular, these regions increasingly face water shortage and degradation of water quality. Depletion of surface and groundwater resources is the result of growing water demands and sometimes-inefficient water use of the domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors. Many water resources become brackish or polluted. Other changes that have been linked to human
1 Inner grant of Agricultural University in Szczecin entitled "Land Use Land Cover Change Modelling under Sustainable
activities such as more frequent hydrologic extremes, land degradation due to intensified agricul-ture, firewood cutting as well as deforestation and livestock grazing, soil erosion and dust storm genesis among others are often of the long-term, low-grade, incremental, and cumulative kind (e.g. "creeping environmental changes"). These kinds of environmental changes are difficult for gov-ernments (from local to national level) to cope with, partly because they appear to be insignificant on the short-term but also because they exhibit intrinsic non-linear dynamics, and in some cases even stochastic behaviour [2, Kundzewicz 2005; 3, 4].
The increasing demand for water resources in semiarid and arid regions makes it necessary to devise innovative decision-making tools comprised of sound science, significant amounts of data, and societal preferences. To this end, this project aims at the development of a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) for Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM), which should be able to perform exploratory long term modelling, risk assessment, and uncertainty analysis of complex eco-hydrosystems and its application under contrasting data availability in semiarid and arid river basins.
2. Scientific and technological objectives of the project and state of the art
Currently, the assessment of relevant state variables in each of these subsystems is hampered not only by the non-exhaustive character of the available measurements but also by the insufficient process understanding and their representation within the existing environmental models. These deficiencies lead to a considerable uncertainty in both the environmental and socio-economic data sets and the predictive power of available models [1]. These shortcomings, which occur even if one is "only" focusing on modelling a single subsystem e.g. the hydrological cycle [1] are in-creased even further in most of the socalled integrated models due to the lack of synergy and feed-back effects between the system’s processes.
The complexity of this problem (2, Kundzewicz 2005) as well as its intrinsic uncertainty, and in some cases a limited computational power have been the main reasons why water resources planners during the past decades have oversimplified the interdependencies among the key vari-ables of the system, and in some cases even analysed each sub-system separately after neglecting all feedback effects among relevant processes. In most cases, a normative or an ad hoc solution was the norm rather than the exception. This simplistic and non-integrative planning approach has led to suboptimal, non-sustainable, and sometimes catastrophic situations around the world. Very well known examples are, for instance: the Assuan Dam Project in Egypt, the large irrigation pro-ject built in the Aral See basin in the former USSR, and the river training executed in the Rhine River along the border between Germany and France [1]. These examples have proven that the conventional methods used in water resources management are not sufficient to ensure a sustain-able use of the present, nor the future water resources. Current research, instead, points out that an iterative analysis and planning approach with emphasis on the system’s uncertainty rather than on deterministic knowledge is the appropriate choice. It is worth noting that this challenge is not re-stricted to the water sector, but rather than that, it is inherent to many other aspects of environ-mental management [1].
Figure 1 Schematic description of the main components and processes of a low-order, dominant mode integrated model composed of five main work packages. WP1: Hydrological ex-tremes, WP2: Long term water balance and quality; WP3: Water-driven land use, crop management and ecosystems; WP4: Soil degradation and erosion; WP5: Livelihood and water management
In order to address these existing limitations and shortcomings, this research project aims to accomplish two general objectives. First, it is devoted to develop a systematic approach aiming at a holistic model of an “adequate” complexity that mimics the dynamics of the dominating proc-esses of both the natural and the socio-economic subsystems. Put differently, it should become a surrogate of the actual system with respect to some characteristics of interest. This holistic model will constitute the core of a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) that is to be delivered at the end of this research project. This holistic model is composed of a set of coupled low-order, Domi-nant Mode (DM) submodels derived from simulations of existing physically-based models cali-brated in each river basin. Each DM submodel will be calicali-brated, validated, and coupled in each river basin. Coupling at a lower level of complexity (Figure 1) will ensure that the holistic model will still be able to exploit the synergy effects among various processes of the system while reduc-ing substantially the computreduc-ing time of a simulation. In general, the functional relationships of the DM submodels should be parsimonious and efficient, their explicit formulation, however, could vary; for instance: fuzzy-rule based, or data-based mechanistic models or data relationships based on a nearest neighbours technique [1].
It should be emphasized that it is not enough that these DM models coexist in different com-puter environments, but rather than that, it is absolutely essential that they interact among them-selves during every simulation interval in space and time, as shown in Figure 1. This constitutes a fundamental feature of the integration approach followed in this project. The flow of information among submodels, which describes the dynamics of the interacting processes, will be accom-plished by the DPSIR [5] (Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Response) - framework schematically depicted in Figure 2, and described more in detail in Table 1.
The second general objective of this project is to develop an exploratory modelling tool within the SDSS aiming to quantify the risk of failure that is inherent to any development strategy (i.e. a plan of action) proposed by the stakeholders and/or decision makers [1]. By doing so, water re-source managers will be able to fully address the uncertainty that characterizes the system, and simultaneously, find a robust strategy (i.e. one having a low risk of failure given a large ensemble of scenarios evaluated according several predefined objectives). Here, a scenario is defined as a feasible set of parameters that fully define both the starting conditions and the evolution of the system. The distribution function of each parameter will be estimated by Monte Carlo simulations. In order to assess the risk of failure associated with a given strategy, the proposed SDSS will stress-test it with a large number of automatically generated scenarios or realizations and then compare it with an optimal strategy, which is obtained assuming a completely deterministic behav-iour of the system.
Figure 2. Interaction between natural and socio-economic systems in the DPSIR-framework Table 1 Example illustrating the application of the DPSIR framework
in arid and semi-arid ecosystems
Driving Forces
¾ Underlying causes leading to environmental pressures, e.g.
• climate,
• population,
• demand for land and water,
• global economy.
Pressures ¾ Explanation of resources, e.g. land, water, minerals, fuels. ¾ Emissions and pollution.
States
¾ Quality and quantity of air, soil, water, e.g. • soil moisture,
• runoff,
• level of the groundwater table, ¾ Ecosystem status:
• number of species per hectare. ¾ Socio-economic indicators, e.g.
• income per capita, • unemployment, • life expectancy.
• human health, e.g. malaria pandemic,
• ecosystems, e.g. increase in flooding and droughts, soil deg-radation,
• biodiversity, e.g. extinction of endemic species, • amenity and financial values, e.g. reduced income.
Responses
¾ Effortd by society to solve the problem, e.g. • policy measures, and planning, actions, • education,
• stakeholders participation,
• engeneering responses to mitigate the vulnerability.
Source: Own investigations
The advantages of the selected approach regarding other integrated modelling approaches are: • To produce a substantial improvement of the computational speed for a whole simulation period
(5 years, 10 years, 20 years) in a way that risk assessment becomes feasible.
• To ease the upgrading of SDSS algorithms when advancement in process based-full complexity models occurs.
• To allow stakeholders and water resource managers to use a “surrogate reality” to carry out experiments aiming at learning and drawing conclusions from the behaviour of the system. This knowledge can, in turn, be used to improve current planning activities and/or to develop better adjusted versions of the SDSS.
• To allow to explore a wide range of plausible paths to the future (or scenarios) that may occur under a given development strategy.
• To assist to find ways to cope with the system’s uncertainty rather than ignoring it.
• To minimize the risk of failure of a strategy by considering simultaneously the mitigation of natural hazards and the reduction of the system’s vulnerability.
Apart from the holistic approach in the project the sub-models set another challenge. The data availability is fair to good for developing countries but, compared to European standards, it is sparse. This requires the state of the art in hydrological modelling techniques by developing a semi-conceptual model which uses merged ground base truth with remote sensing data in order to obtain the pattern and appropriate regionalization methods and scaling of pattern. Apart from the flooding problems an emphasis of the project lies on suitable methods to simulate groundwater recharge and evapo-transpiration which is crucial in arid zones. The assessment of system sensitiv-ity against climate variabilsensitiv-ity and climate change, land use/land cover change should yield the identification of the critical paths in the system. The quantification of the uncertainty is another focus of the project. The main emphasis here is to identify whether these uncertainties and to which extend influence the decisions taken. Decision making should be based on reliable, robust and unbiased estimators, therefore the submodels have to be simplified under consideration of the previously identified dominating processes. The simplification of a sub-model ("soft-computing") to the necessary degree of parsimony, which is the need of a fully coupled integrated model, re-quires advanced stochastic and fuzzy approaches, but nolens volens increases the uncertainty and simultaneously reduces the accuracy on the spatial and temporal scale. This uncertainty has to be quantified in order to make the reliability of the SDSS-simulation apparent to the end-user (i.e. a
stakeholder will have as a final result of the SDSS an estimate of the probability of failure of a given strategy during a predetermined planning period).
3. Integration scientific knowledge and local knowledge
The AWARE project will contribute significantly to a sustainable development in three ex-emplary chosen vulnerable ecosystems in accordance with, e.g. the Dublin principles (1992), EU Sustainable Development Strategy (2001), The Sixth Environment Action Programme of the European Community (2002), and the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesbourg (2002). Within the context of the call "Specific Measures in Support of Interna-tional Co-operation", section A.2.3 "Managing arid and semi arid ecosystems”, the project will strongly create and support equitable scientific partnerships between Europe, China and India, which, by mutual supervision of a group of young research assistants from Asia, are designed to be long lasting. (see details in AWARE project, the dissemination plan, B1.4).
The three selected catchments cover the typical problems globally observed in arid/semi-arid climate zones: increased water scarcity caused for example by mismanagement of crops, non ap-propriate agricultural practise, and various degrees of human activity pressure, or simply by droughts. This lack of water led to a competition about water resources among rural areas, urban-ized zones, and industries, upstream-downstream problems, touching societal and ethnical issues. Above all, the three regions are characterized by lack of coordinated water management activities under risks with regard to sustainable development and water valuation.
Many issues which will be addressed in the project are not only valid on a local scale but rep-resent the relevant causative interrelations of the whole region. The vulnerability for the risk of extremes (droughts and flash floods) is comparably high and the resilience, i.e. the potential to recover from disasters is much smaller than in developed countries. The increase of extremes due to climate change which will enhance the pressure on the availability of water resources, under-lines the urgent need for integrated tools to build up decision support systems for the local policy makers.
3.1. Specific problems and objectives in the Sabarmati River basin, India
The Sabarmati River basin is located in India’s semi arid North West and has a size of 21,674 km2. It originates in the Aravali Mountains and flows southwest 371 km through the State of Guja-rat into the Arabian Sea. The basin is densely populated, including the state’s capital Ahmedabad with 4.5 million inhabitants. More than 60 % of the catchment area is used for agriculture and crop growth. The average annual water availability is 360 m3 per capita which is the lowest in India. The local hydrological cycle is dominated by the high seasonality of Indian monsoon precipitation: 95% of the total rainfall occurs between July and October. The onset and the strength of monsoon rainfall show a high inter-seasonal and even inter-decadal variability, which is the main reason that Sabarmati catchment is exposed to hydrological extremes at both ends of the spectrum. With 2/3 of the population depending on agriculture for employment and 80% of the cultivated land relying on rainfed farming, water and food security closely follow climate variability and extremes. Inten-sive rainfalls reaching up to 80 mm within 4 hours caused disastrous flash floods in the past. Re-cent floods (1996, 2005) showed the urgent need for better operational flood predictions and
flood risk management. This issue is addressed by AWARE within work package WP1 "Hydro-logical extremes". Apart from floods persistence droughts happened in the past, the last one in 1999. The economy of Gujarat State (macro level) but also of households (micro level) has suf-fered a lot under the recent floods and droughts. An early warning system for severe droughts based on robust climatic and hydrological indices is another important objective addressed in WP1 "Hydrological extremes" of AWARE. The combination of droughts and the not appropriate water management and irrigation practise causes furthermore soil degradation due to saliniza-tion, contamination with pesticides and erosion. AWARE will address this multitude of factors that enhance droughts and drought impacts within the work packages WP2 "Long term water balance and quality", WP3 "Water-driven land use, crop management and ecosystems" as well as WP4 "Soil degradation and erosion".
The most serious pressures on people’s livelihood are limited access to fresh water and seri-ous food shortage, which is expected to be worst for female inhabitants. Industrial and non treated domestic waste water are the main reasons for decreasing surface water quality, which drops unacceptably low during droughts. Drinking water was found to be contaminated with fluoride, arsenic, iron, nitrate and other toxic elements, which seriously affects people’s health. AWARE addresses water quality issues and people’s livelihood within WP2 "Long term water balance and quality", WP5 "Livelihood and water management" as well as WP7 "Policy options".
The task of WP6 "Model integration and Risk assessment" of AWARE is to develop an adaptive Decision Support System (SDSS) based on the integration of tools and results obtained within the work packages WP1 to WP5 and WP7. This SDSS will allow the Water Authority to development of different robust strategies for adaptive water resources- and agricultural management, e.g. for optimizing crop patterns for maximum profit under certain constraints, e.g. not to overexploit surface- and groundwater resources to avoid ecosystem damages. Such a tool seems absolutely essential to meet current and future challenges, since the various impacts will lead to a reduction in gross per capita water availability of 40% within the next 50 years.
3.2. Specific problems and objectives in the Manas River basin, China
The Manas river basin is located in China’s arid northwest. It is an inland basin without out-flow to the sea, covering 20,000 km2. The upper reaches of the catchment lie in the Tianshan Mountains. The terminal sink of the river used to be Lake Manas, which at present is already dried up. The basin has a population of 870,000 inhabitants, who mostly live on agriculture (70%). Due to the arid climate with an average yearly precipitation of only 150 mm, agriculture is only possi-ble with irrigation. The irrigated area is about 300,000 ha. Manas River and its tributaries are the only water resource. Inflow origins from rain but mainly from snow and glacier melt. The dis-charge regime shows a strong seasonality with a maximum in June to August, which is associated with sometimes devastating floods, while in the rest of the year flows are small and water users have to rely on either in surface reservoirs or in aquifers stored water. A flood warning system is needed here urgently.
As glacier melt is the dominating source of water during the dry summers, the inter annual variation between warm and cold years as well as possible impacts of climate change are crucial for long term water resources planning and flood protection. Obviously the Manas catchment is extremely vulnerable for the reduction or even vanishing of glaciers. These most important issues are therefore addressed in the WP1 "Hydrological extremes" and WP2 "Long term water balance and quality". Even under present climate conditions the variations from year to year are strong and years with little snowfall lead to drought conditions in the following summer. AWARE will meet this problem with a drought warning system.
The average water availability is 2600 m3/a per capita. This huge figure is misleading due to temporal averaging and the neglect of the water requirements of the ecosystem. Almost all the flow is used for irrigation and evaporates completely. This has led to the drying up of Lake Ma-nas (originally 550 km2), the loss of a whole ecotope and consequently to desertification. The sand dunes move south with a speed of 0.5-1 m/d. There is presently 0.49 billion m3 surface reser-voir capacity for irrigation with losses of 20 %. The seepage losses lead to a high groundwater table in the surroundings of the reservoirs and to severe salinization of the soil. The excessive exploitation of the water resources upstream leads to a downstream-problem with semi-nomadic, ethnically non-Han groups deprived of their existential basis, which bears the potential of future societal problems. Before the severe changes of land-use in the 50’s these groups had created a sustainable system of resource management.
Measures to work against the ongoing desertification and soil salinization will be developed within WP3 "Water-driven land use, crop management and ecosystems" as well as WP4 "Soil degradation and erosion" of AWARE. This requires an optimisation of crop management, agricultural and domestic water use that is addressed in WP5 "Livelihood and water manage-ment", WP3 "Water-driven land use, crop management and ecosystems" and WP7 "Policy options".
The overall goal of the AWARE project in the Manas catchment is to provide concepts and methods aiming at finding out how to improve agricultural water management.
3.3. Specific problems and objectives in the Hei River (Heihe) basin, China
The Heihe river basin is located in the arid west of China. It is also an inland basin draining 140,000 km², housing1.8 million inhabitants. Of these 78% live from agriculture. The origin of the river is in the Qilian Mountains. It flows to the north through the Hexi corridor and ends in Juyuan Lake. The downstream of the river consists of two basins, the corridor plain in the south and the Ejina plain in the north. While in the southern basin a yearly precipitation of almost 200 mm/a is observed, the northern basis receives less than 50 mm/a. Seasonal variation of flow within a year is large, 80% of the annual flow volume account from June to August due to snow melt. Thus inter annual changes in the snow store as well as the impact of global climate change is important for water resources planning and will therefore be a focus of WP1 "Hydrological extremes" and WP2 "Long term water balance and quality".
The differentiation in the ecological structure of Heihe River Basin is strong with different ecological belts having special characteristics. The mountain ecological structure displays a strong
coherence and complicated mosaic. The ecological structure feature of oasis᧩desert area is: oasis runs along the river banks and oasis becomes the ecological heteroplasmon embedded in desert; although various types of ecological elements in the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin have changed drastically during the past 20 years, its overall ecological state remains the strong contrast between desertification and oasis. This illuminates that the human interference has changed the distribution of limited water resources in arid land leading to the intensified contradiction between desertification process and oasis generation process, and with the crossing belt between oasis and desert as the most sensitive part.
The irrigated agricultural area of the plains has been growing continuously over the last decades, now reaching an area of 300,000 ha. Due to excessive irrigation in the middle reaches of the river the flow in the downstream has diminished by 50%. This has led to a severe environ-mental and ecosystem degradation in the Ejina plain. The terminal lake has dried up, the loss of vegetation, especially pastures, are the main reasons for increased amount of sandstorms which can even affect Beijing. A typical upstream-downstream conflict arose: while the irrigation upstream has improved the livelihood of the farmers, the downstream inhabitants, mainly semi-nomadic cattle breeding minorities, have suffered from the loss of their pastures. Chinese gov-ernment decided to improve the situation downstream by reallocating almost 1 million m3/a in an average year there. Hence there is an urgent need to develop a more sustainable water and crop management and measures to stop ongoing soil- and ecosystem degradation, which is addressed in WP3 "Water-driven land use, crop management and ecosystems", WP5 "Livelihood and water management" and WP4 "Soil degradation and erosion". Besides technical measures socio-economic responses policy options are thought of. These include tradable water quota and water pricing. The reallocation of water downstream also poses the problem of where and how to optimally apply the water in an effort of restoring the ecosystem. AWARE will provide a SDSS to face the challenges.
4. Conclusions
The approach to develop a SDSS for integrated adaptive water management proposed within the AWARE project is absolutely novel and goes far beyond usual approaches based on coupling complex models and ending up with one or two scenarios of the kind "what happens if ...". The problem with this approach is that scenarios are often based on artificial assumptions and that decision makers and stakeholders do not work with scenarios but with strategies. The SDSS pro-posed in AWARE enables stakeholders to test robust strategies for integrated water management and to assess the risk if these strategies fail. With this tool Stakeholders can test various strategies for integrated water management and adapt new strategies if global drivers such as crop and water prices do change. Hence the stakeholder is not banned to simple scenarios but can adapt his planning to the most recent long term projections. As water management has to deal with multiple and often contradicting objectives such the SDSS developed in AWARE will allow a new quality of adaptive integrated water resources planning. The highly integrative nature of AWARE is also reflected in the fact that the work packages do not just focus on different disciplines, as it is often the case, but focus on problems such as hydrological extremes or soil degradation. The strong
links with local institutions being equitable partners in the consortium ensure a sustainable re-search transfer and a durable implementation of the SDSS.
Two possible types of situations from policy/administration point of view may be conceived: (1) Response to an emergency/disaster like situation: It calls for immediate steps of relief in minimum possible time and take follow up steps necessary to pull people out of crisis situation and enable them to cope with it. The SDSS will help to improve the efficiency of administrative ma-chinery and point out the results of feed back from different stakeholders. Past experience shows that private and community initiatives could do wonders in a situation of emergency/disaster. A SDSS can be used to train the various people involved in disaster management activities and to test and coordinate the actions.
(2) Post Crisis Situation and back to "business as usual": As things start settling down, the sys-tem comes back to usual business without concerns being raised for prevention or more effective way of handling the situation should the events happen again. Those who lost their assets and earnings continue to suffer.
In long development perspective several aspects deserve attention in this case: (a) that there is a strong need to avert a crisis like situation through proper planning and timely signalling should the event take place; (b) What kind of policies relating to use of water and other natural resources are required so as not to allow their over exploitation; (c) What kind of situations are conducive to building cooperation among people (public, private, NGOs, communities) and to help implement policies evolved in (b).
In real life situation, the public authorities and the community organizations have to partici-pate in evolving strategies and devising instruments to meet the challenge of all the three situations mentioned above. In the literature on optimal use of water resources, there is considerable discus-sion on pricing of water and institutional changes required. This falls in the domain of situation (c). But it is rarely linked with situation (a) and (b) in an integrated adaptive fashion. It is in this context that the Decision Support System (SDSS) based on DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Response) framework proposed by AWARE will be most useful in the Chinese and In-dian contexts. The experience gathered from the study of Sabarmati Basin will have wide ranging applications in the situations conceived in (a), (b), and (c) as they are quite common to many re-gions/sites in India in the context of the ‘creeping environmental’ changes and ‘hydrological ex-tremes’ as well.
As European added value the methods and techniques that will be used in this project are gen-eral and therefore can be transferred to any river basin. Particular simplifications may be of inter-est for European countries with semiarid regions such as: Portugal, Spain, Greece, and Italy. By doing so, the proposed project is in line with the holistic approach demanded by the EU Water Framework Initiative (Directive 2000/60/EC), Article 1:
• Prevent further deterioration and protects and enhances the status of aquatic ecosystems and associated wetlands.
• Promote sustainable water use based on long term protection of available water resources. • Aim at enhanced protection and improvement of the aquatic environment.
• Ensure the progressive reduction of pollution of groundwater and prevents its further pol-lution.
The project also features the key Millennium Goals defined by the World Summit on Sustain-able Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg in August, 2002:
• Reinforce political will and commitment to action.
• Make water governance effective and build institutional capacity. • Improve co-ordination and co-operation.
• Increase the efficiency of existing EU aid flows. Bibliography
1. AWARE project, Call: FP6-2004-INCO-DEV-3. Area: A 2.3., 2005. Submitted to evaluation 13 September .Type of instrument: Specific Targeted Research Project. Title: "Adaptive integrated catchment management and risks based water resources - and land use planning in semi arid and arid areas". Author is supervisor WP5 "Livelihood and wa-ter management" and co-supervisor WP7 "Policy options". Scientific consortium encom-passes 17 research teams from Europe, China and India.
2. Bogardi, J.J., Kundzewicz, Z.W. (Eds.), 2005. Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty and Robust-ness of Water Resource Systems. Series: International Hydrology Series. Division of Wa-ter Sciences, UNESCO Paris. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
3. Miklewski, A., 2005a. The Theories and Models of Land Use Land Cover Change as Knowledge Systems in Operationalizing Sustainable Development in Region Scale. Un-published habilitation manuscript.
4. Miklewski, A., 2005b. Integrating knowledge on spatial dynamics in socio-economic and environmental systems to analyze, simulate and assess spatial land use change in re-gional scale. Seria: Systems Analysis 41. Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Institute, 115-124.
5. Miklewski, A., 2001. DPSIR Method – the Application in Sustainable Development. Folia Universitatis Agriculturae Stetinensis 222, Oeconomica 40, 171-177.
ANTONI MIKLEWSKI Akademia Rolnicza Szczecin ul. Monte Cassino 16 70-466 Szczecin <miklewsk@erl.edu.pl>
