Determinanty wyboru kursu walutowego w świetle teorii optymalnych obszarów walutowych

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(14) 40. Jacek Pera. VWDã\OXESã\QQ\2F]\ZLŋFLHVWRSLHĸWHJRU\]\NDEĕG]LHQLHZVSyãPLHUQLHQLŧV]\QD REV]DUDFKZDOXWRZ\FKQLŧSR]DQLPL:RVWDWHF]QRŋFLSU]HGVLĕELRUVWZDG]LDãDMćFH QDU\QNXPLĕG]\QDURGRZ\PG]LHOćVLĕQDGZLHNDWHJRULHSU]HGVLĕELRUVWZG]LD ãDMćF\FKQDZ\RGUĕEQLRQ\FKREV]DUDFKZDOXWRZ\FKLSR]DQLPL1DOHŧ\UyZQLHŧ SDPLĕWDþŧH]PLDQDNXUVXZDOXWRZHJRZ\ZRãXMHZSURVWSURSRUFMRQDOQć]PLDQĕ ZLHONRŋFLQDOHŧQRŋFL]RERZLć]DĸRUD]ZDUWRŋFLDNW\ZyZ]DJUDQLF]Q\FKGHQRPL QRZDQ\FKZZDOXFLHREFHM =SUDNW\NLJRVSRGDUF]HMZ\QLNDŧHSU]HGVLĕELRUVWZRVSU]HGDMćFHWRZDU\OXE XVãXJLZZDOXFLHNUDMRZHMMHVWQDUDŧRQHQDZ]PDFQLDQLHVLĕVZRMHMZDOXW\:WHG\ ERZLHPGREUDVWDQćVLĕGURŧV]HZSU]HOLF]HQLXQDZDOXWĕQDE\ZF\:WHMV\WX DFMLQDE\ZFDSRGHMPLHQDMSUDZGRSRGREQLHMG]LDãDQLD]PLHU]DMćFHGRX]\VNDQLD WDĸV]HJRťUyGãDGRVWDZ)DNWXURZDQLHLUR]OLF]DQLHZZDOXFLHNUDMRZHMSR]ZDOD ]DWHPXVXQćþMDZQHU\]\NRNXUVRZHQLHMHVWQDWRPLDVWVNXWHF]Q\PVSRVREHP HOLPLQRZDQLDVNXWNyZUXFKyZNXUVyZZDOXWRZ\FKGODSU]HGVLĕELRUVWZD 3U]HGVLĕELRUVWZRG]LDãDMćFHQDU\QNXPLĕG]\QDURGRZ\P]DUyZQRQDGDQ\P REV]DU]HZDOXWRZ\PSR]DQLPMDNUyZQLHŧSRPLĕG]\REV]DUDPLEĕG]LHSU]\M PRZDþRGPLHQQHVWUDWHJLH]ZLć]DQH]Z\ERUHPZDOXW\RUD]VSRVREXLURG]DMHP UR]OLF]HQLD3U]HGVLĕELRUVWZDG]LDãDMćFHQD22:PXV]ćSU]\MćþZDUXQNLMDNLH SDQXMćZGDQHMVWUHILHZDOXWRZHMW]QWDNLHNWyUHDNFHSWXMćMHGQćZVSyOQćZDOXWĕ RSDUWćQDV]W\ZQ\PSã\QQ\PNXUVLHZDOXWRZ\P X]DOHŧQLRQHWRMHVWRGV]RNyZ DV\PHWU\F]Q\FK

(15) :\EyUZDOXW\MHVWWXWDMRF]\ZLVW\LSRG\NWRZDQ\QDU]XFRQ\PL ZDUXQNDPLJRVSRGDURZDQLD3U]HGVLĕELRUVWZDG]LDãDMćFHSR]D22:PXV]ć SU]\MćþZDUXQNLMDNLHSDQXMćQDGDQ\PREV]DU]HZDOXWRZ\PLGDQ\FKZDUXQNDFK JRVSRGDURZDQLD3U]\MPXMćRQHZLĕFQDVWĕSXMćFHVWUDWHJLH]ZLć]DQH]Z\ERUHP ZDOXW\ ² NODX]XODZ\ERUXZDOXW\²SR]ZDODMćFDMHGQHM]HVWURQQDZ\EUDQLHMHGQHM ]NLONXZDOXW QS86'(85L*%3

(16) FRHOLPLQXMHU\]\NR]PLDQNXUVyZZ]DMHP Q\FKJãyZQ\FKZDOXW ² NODX]XODZDOXW\WU]HFLHM²QLHEĕGćFHMZDOXWćQDURGRZćŧDGQHM]HVWURQ =D]Z\F]DMMHVWWRZDOXWDŋZLDWRZDWDNDMDN86'OXE(85:WHQVSRVyEVWURQ\ G]LHOć VLĕ U\]\NLHP SRQRV]ćF MHG\QLH U\]\NR ]PLDQ\ NXUVX VZRMHM ZDOXW\ NUDMRZHMGRGRODUD.ODX]XODWDMHVWNRQLHF]QDZZ\SDGNX]DZLHUDQLDNRQWUDNWyZ ]NRQWUDKHQWDPL]NUDMyZRQLHVWDELOQ\FKZDOXWDFK ² QHWWLQJF]\OLELODQVRZDQLH]RERZLć]DĸLQDOHŧQRŋFLZHGãXJZDOXW\RUD] WHUPLQXSãDWQRŋFL-HŋOLZW\PVDP\PGQLXILUPDMHVW]RERZLć]DQD]DSãDFLþ 86'RUD]SU]HZLGXMHŧHRWU]\PD86'RGNRQWUDKHQWD]DJUDQLF]QHJR ZyZF]DVMHVWZ]DEH]SLHF]RQD²MHMSR]\FMDZDOXWRZDMHVW]DPNQLĕWD :SUDNW\FHWDNDV\WXDFMDU]DGNRZ\VWĕSXMHFKRþELODQVRZDQLHSR]ZDODQDSU]\ . 30LV]WDO=DEH]SLHF]HQLHSU]HGU\]\NLHP]PLDQNXUVXZDOXWRZHJR'LILQ:DUV]DZD V².

(17) Determinanty wyboru kursu walutowego…. 41. QDMPQLHMF]ĕŋFLRZHLEH]NRV]WRZHRJUDQLF]HQLHU\]\ND3U]HGVLĕELRUVWZRPRŧH VWDUDþVLĕPDQLSXORZDþWHUPLQDPLSãDWQRŋFL]RERZLć]DĸDE\GRVWRVRZDþMHGR WHUPLQyZRWU]\PDQLDŋURGNyZZZDOXWDFKREF\FK ² NODX]XOD0RQH\RI$FFRXQWDQG0RQH\RI3D\PHQWZNWyUHMXVWDODVLĕŧH LPSRUWHUZ\SãDFLVXPĕZZDOXFLHWU]HFLHM QS86'

(18) EĕGćFHMUyZQRZDUWRŋFLć RNUHŋORQHMVXP\ZZDOXFLHNUDMRZHMHNVSRUWHUD &]ĕVWR]GDU]DVLĕŧHQDVNXWHNV]RNyZDV\PHWU\F]Q\FKSU]HGVLĕELRUVWZD VWRVXMćSRZ\ŧV]HPHWRG\UyZQLHŧQD22:3RG\NWRZDQHMHVWWRJãyZQLHSRWU]HEć PDNV\PDOQHJR]DEH]SLHF]HQLDVLĕGDQHJRSU]HGVLĕELRUVWZDSU]HGU\]\NLHP NXUVRZ\PLSUHVMćXWUDW\ŋURGNyZQDVNXWHNUyŧQLFNXUVRZ\FK .RU]\ĂFLLNRV]W\8QLL:DOXWRZHM $QDOL]DNRU]\ŋFLLNRV]WyZMDNLHZ\QLNDMćEH]SRŋUHGQLR]IXQNFMRQRZDQLDXQLL ZDOXWRZHMSR]ZDODRFHQLþVWRSLHĸLFKDEVRUSFML]22:MDNUyZQLHŧLFKKRPR JHQLF]QRŋþ]SRV]F]HJyOQ\PLJRVSRGDUNDPL NDQG\GDFNLPLLF]ãRQNRZVNLPL

(19) 7U]HEDSDPLĕWDþŧHXQLDZDOXWRZDVWDQRZLVSHF\ILF]QćIRUPĕUHŧLPXNXUVRZHJR LMHVWF]\PŋZLĕFHMQLŧW\ONRXV]W\ZQLHQLHPZ]DMHPQ\FKNXUVyZZDOXWRZ\FK SRPLĕG]\NUDMDPL:SURZDG]HQLHZVSyOQHMZDOXW\R]QDF]DFDãNRZLWćHOLPLQDFMĕ NXUVyZZDOXWRZ\FKSRPLĕG]\NUDMDPLFRQLHVLH]HVREćVSHF\ILF]QHNRU]\ŋFL ZSRVWDFL]ZLĕNV]RQHMHIHNW\ZQRŋFLHNRQRPLF]QHM'RSRGVWDZRZ\FKNRU]\ŋFL ]DOLF]DVLĕHOLPLQDFMĕNRV]WyZWUDQVDNF\MQ\FKPRŧOLZRŋþ]PQLHMV]HQLDUH]HUZ ZDOXWRZ\FKHOLPLQDFMĕU\]\NDNXUVRZHJRVSDGHNVWySSURFHQWRZ\FKX]\VNDQLH VNXWHF]QHMRFKURQ\SU]HGNU\]\VDPLZDOXWRZ\PLRUD]PRŧOLZRŋþ]ZLĕNV]HQLD VWDELOQRŋFLPRQHWDUQHM (OLPLQDFMDNRV]WyZWUDQVDNF\MQ\FK]ZLć]DQDMHVW]NRV]WDPLEH]SRŋUHG QLPLLSRŋUHGQLPL1DNRV]W\EH]SRŋUHGQLHVNãDGDMćVLĕSURZL]MHLLQQHRSãDW\ NWyUHVćSRQRV]RQH]DZV]HSU]\Z\PLDQLHZDOXW.RV]W\SRŋUHGQLH]ZLć]DQH Vć]SUREOHPHPG\VNU\PLQDFMLFHQRZHM1DVNXWHNWHMG\VNU\PLQDFMLZ\QLND MćFHM]VHJPHQWDFMLU\QNXVSRZRGRZDQHMUyŧQ\PLZDOXWDPLFHQ\WDNLFKVDP\FK SURGXNWyZPRJćE\þUyŧQH:SURZDG]HQLHZVSyOQHMZDOXW\]ZLĕNV]DSU]HMU]\ VWRŋþFHQFRSR]ZDODZ\HOLPLQRZDþOXE]QDF]QLH]PQLHMV]\þUyŧQLFHFHQRZH :HMŋFLHGRXQLLZDOXWRZHMEĕG]LHVNXWNRZDþ]PQLHMV]HQLHP]DSRWU]HERZDQLD QD]DJUDQLF]QHUH]HUZ\ZDOXWRZH'RW\FKF]DVXWU]\P\ZDQHUH]HUZ\ZZDOXWDFK REF\FKE\ã\REFLćŧHQLHPGODLFKSRVLDGDF]D (OLPLQDFMDU\]\NDNXUVRZHJRSU]HMDZLDVLĕZWU]HFKIRUPDFK ² ]ZLĕNV]HQLDGREURE\WX. . &:yMFLN3U]HVãDQNLZ\ERUXV\VWHPyZNXUVRZ\FK6*+:DUV]DZDV.

(20) 42. Jacek Pera. ² ]ZLĕNV]HQLDHIHNW\ZQRŋFLV\VWHPXJRVSRGDUF]HJRXãDWZLHQLDSURZDG]HQLD G]LDãDOQRŋFLJRVSRGDUF]HM ² SR]\W\ZQHJRZSã\ZXQDZ\PLDQĕKDQGORZć 5\QHNVWySSURFHQWRZ\FKRNUHŋODQ\MHVWSU]H]U\]\NRZDOXWRZHRUD]U\]\NR NUHG\WRZH&]ãRQNRVWZRZXQLLZDOXWRZHMDXWRPDW\F]QLHHOLPLQXMHOXE]QDF]QLH RJUDQLF]DU\]\NRNXUVRZHFRZNRQVHNZHQFMLSU]\F]\QLDVLĕGRVSDGNXUHDOQHM VWRS\SURFHQWRZHM 3U]\VWćSLHQLHGRXQLLZDOXWRZHMOXEMHGQRVWURQQHSU]\MĕFLHREFHMZDOXW\ VNXWHF]QLHFKURQLNUDMSU]HGNU\]\VDPLZDOXWRZ\PL7U]HEDMHGQDNSDPLĕWDþ ŧHSU]\MĕFLHZVSyOQHMZDOXW\SRPLĕG]\GZRPDREV]DUDPLZDOXWRZ\PLR]QDF]D ]U]HF]HQLHVLĕ]Z\NRU]\VWDQLDNXUVXZDOXWRZHJRMDNRQDU]ĕG]LDGRVWRVRZDZ F]HJRSROLW\NLJRVSRGDUF]HM 3U]\VWćSLHQLHGRXQLLZDOXWRZHMGDQHJRNUDMX]ZLĕNV]DDXWRPDW\F]QLHMHJR ZLDU\JRGQRŋþZ]DNUHVLHSROLW\NLSLHQLĕŧQHMLPRŧHSU]\QLHŋþNRU]\ŋFLZSRVWDFL ]ZLĕNV]RQHMVWDELOQRŋFLPRQHWDUQHM1HJDW\ZQHVNXWNLIXQNFMRQRZDQLDXQLL ZDOXWRZHMZLćŧćVLĕ]QDVWĕSXMćFćSUDZLGãRZRŋFćZUD]]HZ]URVWHPLQWHQ V\ZQRŋFLKDQGOXPLĕG]\NUDMDPLPRŧHQDVWĕSRZDþZ]URVWLFKVSHFMDOL]DFML ZSURGXNFMLRNUHŋORQ\FKGyEU:WDNLHMV\WXDFMLHZHQWXDOQHV]RNLDV\PHWU\F]QH GRW\NDMćFHGDQćJDãćťSU]HP\VãXEĕGćVWDZDþVLĕZFRUD]ZLĕNV]\P]DNUHVLH WDNŧHV]RNDPLDV\PHWU\F]Q\PLZNUDMDFKWZRU]ćF\FKXQLĕZDOXWRZć7R]NROHL EĕG]LHVNXWNRZDþW\PŧHSRXWZRU]HQLXXQLLZDOXWRZHMF\NOHNRQLXQNWXUDOQH PRJćVWDZDþVLĕDV\QFKURQLF]QH 8QLDZDOXWRZDZĂZLHWOHWHRULL22:ļNU\WHULDZ\ERUX =DVDGQLF]\P]DGDQLHPWHRULL22:MHVWRSW\PDOL]DFMDZ\ERUXZDUXQNyZ JRVSRGDURZDQLDSRPLĕG]\GZRPDNUDMDPLNWyUHFKFćSU]\MćþMHGQćZDOXWĕ :DUXQNDPLW\PLVćPRELOQRŋþVLã\URERF]HMHODVW\F]QRŋþFHQLSãDFUHG\VWU\ EXFMDILVNDOQDRWZDUWRŋþJRVSRGDUNL]XZ]JOĕGQLHQLHPNRV]WyZXQLLZDOXWRZHM G\ZHUV\ILNDFMDVWUXNWXU\SURGXNF\MQHMPLĕG]\VHNWRURZDPRELOQRŋþVLã\URER F]HMSRGDWQRŋþQDV]RNLV\PHWU\F]QHLV\QFKURQL]DFMDF\NOLNRQLXQNWXUDOQ\FK :V]\VWNLHWHZDUXQNLPXV]ćE\þUyZQLHŧUR]SDWU]RQHQDWOHSRGDWQRŋFLNUDMXQD V]RNLDV\PHWU\F]QHNWyU\PPRJćZNDŧGHMFKZLOLSRGOHJDþNUDMHFKFćFHXWZR U]\þ22:. . ,ELGHPV. . ,ELGHPV. . )LOR]RILĕLPHWRGRORJLĕZZLĕNV]RŋFLRSDUWRQD&:yMFLNRSFLWV².

(21) Determinanty wyboru kursu walutowego…. 43. 6]RNL]HZQĕWU]QH )D]D,5yZQRZDJDPDNURHNRQRPLF]QDSRPLĕG]\GZRPDNUDMDPLFKFćF\PL WZRU]\þ22: .UDM$LNUDM%]QDMGXMćVLĕZHZ]JOĕGQHMUyZQRZDG]HPDNURHNRQRPLF]QHM ]DUyZQRZHZQĕWU]QHMMDNL]HZQĕWU]QHM']LDãDQLHV]RNyZQLHZ\VWĕSXMH:\VWĕ SXMHSHãQDRSW\PDOQRŋþLDEVRUSFMDPHFKDQL]PyZVWDELOL]XMćF\FK²]DUyZQRSR VWURQLHNUDMX$MDNLNUDMX% )D]D,,3RMDZLHQLHVLĕV]RNX]HZQĕWU]QHJR .UDM$LNUDM%QLH]QDMGXMćVLĕZHZ]JOĕGQHMUyZQRZDG]HPDNURHNRQR PLF]QHMDQLSRGZ]JOĕGHPUyZQRZDJLZHZQĕWU]QHMDQL]HZQĕWU]QHM:\VWĕSXMć V]RNLRUyŧQHMF]ĕVWRWOLZRŋFLLQDWĕŧHQLX%UDNXMHSHãQHMRSW\PDOQRŋFLLDEVRUSFML PHFKDQL]PyZVWDELOL]XMćF\FK]DUyZQRSRVWURQLHNUDMX$MDNLNUDMX% 1LHUyZQRZDJDZ\QLNDEH]SRŋUHGQLR]H]PLDQ\SUHIHUHQFMLNRQVXPHQWyZ ZRE\GZXNUDMDFK-HŧHOLERZLHPNRQVXPHQFL]NUDMX$SU]HVWDQćQDE\ZDþGREUD ]NUDMX%D]DF]QćQDE\ZDþGREUDNUDMRZHZyZF]DVZZ\SDGNXRE\GZXNUDMyZ SRMDZLVLĕG\VSURSRUFMDSRPLĕG]\SRGDŧćLSRS\WHP1DVWćSLUDG\NDOQ\VSDGHN SRS\WXJOREDOQHJRSURGXNWXRUD]]DWUXGQLHQLDLFHQSRVWURQLHNUDMX%:NUDMX $QDVWćSLZ]URVWLSUHVMDQDWHF]\QQLNLFRZHIHNFLHVSRZRGXMH]ZLĕNV]HQLH JOREDOQHMDEVRUSFML *RVSRGDUNLNUDMyZ$L%]QDMGćVLĕZQLHUyZQRZDG]H²QDMSLHUZ]HZQĕWU]QHM DSRWHPZHZQĕWU]QHMQDVNXWHNSRZVWDãHJRGHILF\WXZELODQVLHKDQGORZ\P SRPLĕG]\QLPL'DOV]ćNRQVHNZHQFMćSRZVWDãHMQLHUyZQRZDJLMHVWSURFHVGHIODFML ZNUDMX%LLQIODFMLZNUDMX$3U]\ZUyFHQLHZ]JOĕGQHMUyZQRZDJLPRŧHQDVWćSLþ SRSU]H]RGSRZLHGQLHUXFK\SRVWURQLHNXUVXZDOXWRZHJR )D]D,,,'RVWRVRZDQLHVLĕGRV]RNXDV\PHWU\F]QHJR =PQLHMV]HQLHVWUXPLHQLDZDOXWQDSã\ZDMćF\FKQDU\QHNZDOXWRZ\ZNUDMX% EĕGćFHQDVWĕSVWZHPQHJDW\ZQHJRV]RNXMDNLSRZVWDãSRPLĕG]\W\PLNUDMDPLQD VNXWHNQLHUyZQRZDJLZELODQVLHKDQGORZ\P²DV]F]HJyOQLHSRVWURQLHSRS\WX HNVSRUWRZHJREĕG]LHSURZDG]LþGRGHSUHFMDFMLZDOXW\ZNUDMX%6NXWNLHP ]PLDQ\NXUVXMHVWZ]URVWJOREDOQHJRSRS\WXZNUDMX%FRZSUDNW\FHEĕG]LH R]QDF]DãRSRZUyWSRGDŧ\GRMHMSLHUZRWQHMZLHONRŋFL7DNL]DELHJXPRŧOLZLDRVWD WHF]QLHSRZUyWGRZ\MŋFLRZHJRSR]LRPXFHQRUD]VWDQXUyZQRZDJLZHZQĕWU]QHM L]HZQĕWU]QHMZREXNUDMDFKGRWNQLĕW\FKV]RNLHP 0RELOQRŋþVLã\URERF]HM,QQćPHWRGćSU]\ZUDFDQLDUyZQRZDJLZHZQĕWU]QHM L]HZQĕWU]QHMZNUDMDFKREV]DUXZDOXWRZHJRZVWDQLHQLHUyZQRZDJLSRZVWDãHM QDVNXWHNV]RNXDV\PHWU\F]QHJRMHVWSU]HSã\ZVLã\URERF]HM]NUDMXGRWNQLĕ WHJRW\PV]RNLHP %

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