Rozwój gospodarek wschodzących na przykładzie krajów regionu Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej

A N N A L E S

8 1 , 9 ( 5 6 , 7$7 , 6   0 $ 5 , $ (   & 8 5 , (  6 . à 2 ' 2 : 6 . $ /8%/,1±32/21,$ 92/;/9,, 6(&7,2+  8QLZHUV\WHW(NRQRPLF]Q\Z.UDNRZLH.DWHGUD5\QNyZ)LQDQVRZ\FK 0$&,(-%2/,6ĉ*$

5R]ZyMJRVSRGDUHNZVFKRG]ąF\FK

QDSU]\NáDG]LHNUDMyZ

...

UHJLRQX(XURS\ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHM

(PHUJLQJPDUNHWV¶HFRQRPLFJURZWKEDVHGRQ&HQWUDO(DVWHUQ(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV 6áRZDNOXF]RZH(XURSDĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLDZ]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\NU\]\VILQDQVRZ\NXUVZDOXWRZ\ KDQGHO]DJUDQLF]Q\ .H\ZRUGV&HQWUDO(DVWHUQ(XURSHHFRQRPLFJURZWKILQDQFLDOFULVLVH[FKDQJHUDWHIRUHLJQWUDGH :VWĊS

3U]HGPLRWHP DQDOL]\ Vą F]WHU\ NUDMH (XURS\ ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHM &]HFK\ :ĊJU\ 3ROVND RUD] 6áRZDFMD ± ]H Z]JOĊGX QD SRáRĪHQLH ZLHONRĞü RUD] SRGREQą GURJĊWUDQVIRUPDFMLJRVSRGDUF]HMF]ĊVWRVWDQRZLąRQHSU]HGPLRWSRUyZQDĔLPLĊG]\ VREąLMDNRFDá\UHJLRQNWyU\WZRU]ą0LHV]NDMąZQLFKSRQDGPOQRE\ZDWHOL FR VWDQRZL  SRSXODFML FDáHM 8QLL (XURSHMVNLHM -HGQDN LFK XG]LDá Z 3.% 8QLL Z\QRVLMHG\QLH/LF]E\WHĞZLDGF]ąRLVWRWQHMUyĪQLF\PLĊG]\NUDMDPLUHJLRQX (XURS\ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHMDLFKXSU]HP\VáRZLRQ\PLVąVLDGDPL&HOHPQLQLHMV]HM DQDOL]\MHVWRPyZLHQLHZ\EUDQ\FKF]\QQLNyZPDMąF\FKGHF\GXMąF\ZSá\ZQDUR]ZyM JRVSRGDUF]\ZJOREDOQ\PĞZLHFLH3RQLHZDĪNUDMHEĊGąFHSU]HGPLRWHPDQDOL]\RG URNXVąF]áRQNDPL8QLL(XURSHMVNLHMZDUWR]WHMSHUVSHNW\Z\UyZQLHĪSU]H-DQDOL]RZDüMDNLFKJRVSRGDUNLUHDJRZDá\QD]PLDQ\Z\QLNDMąFH]WHJRF]áRQNRVWZD

UMCS

54 0$&,(-%2/,6ĉ*$

$QDOL]DSRUyZQDZF]DUR]ZRMXJRVSRGDUF]HJR

3RGZ]JOĊGHPZLHONRĞFL3.%QDPLHV]NDĔFDNUDMH(XURS\ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHM FKDUDNWHU\]XMą VLĊ UyĪQ\P SR]LRPHP UR]ZRMX *RVSRGDUND F]HVND SU]H] ZLHOH LQVW\WXFMLILQDQVRZ\FKPLQ0):MHVWSRVWU]HJDQDMDNRUR]ZLQLĊWD=NROHLSR-]RVWDáHNUDMHUHJLRQX]DOLF]DVLĊGRJUXS\SDĔVWZUR]ZLMDMąF\FKVLĊDQJGHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV5\VXQHNSU]HGVWDZLDZLHONRĞü3.%ZSU]HOLF]HQLXQDPLHV]NDĔFDSR XZ]JOĊGQLHQLXSDU\WHWXVLá\QDE\ZF]HM_{3.%&]HFKZ\QRVLĞUHGQLHMZ8(}_ :SU]\SDGNX6áRZDFMLL3ROVNLMHVWWRRGSRZLHGQLRL3.%:ĊJLHUZ\QRVL ĞUHGQLHM:DUWRSU]\WHMRND]ML]DXZDĪ\üĪHMXĪZPRPHQFLHUR]V]HU]HQLD8( ZDUWRĞü3.%QDPLHV]NDĔFDZ\QRVLáDZ&]HFKDFK.ROHMQHPLHMVFH]DMPRZDá\ ZURNX:HJU\]Z\QLNLHPQDSR]LRPLHQDVWĊSQLH6áRZDFMDL3ROVND  :VSRPQLDQ\ U\VXQHN SRND]XMH QLH W\ONR ZLHONRĞü 3.% Z SU]HOLF]HQLX QD PLHV]NDĔFD,VWRWQLHMV]ąLQIRUPDFMąMHVWG\QDPLND]PLDQ\ZDUWRĞFLSURGXNWXNUDMR-ZHJREUXWWRRGPRPHQWXZHMĞFLDZV]\VWNLFKZVSRPQLDQ\FKSDĔVWZF]áRQNRZVNLFK ZVWUXNWXU\8QLL(XURSHMVNLHM:W\PSU]\SDGNX3.%3ROVNLL6áRZDFMLQDSU]HVWU]HQL ODWZ]URVáRR-HVWWRQDMOHSV]\Z\QLNQLHW\ONRZUHJLRQLHDOHLZFDáHM8QLL (XURSHMVNLHM:]URVW3.%&]HFKZW\PRNUHVLHZ\QLyVá]DĞ:ĊJLHU± =SU]HGVWDZLRQ\FKGDQ\FKMDVQRZ\QLNDĪHJRVSRGDUNL6áRZDFMLL3ROVNLSRSU]\-VWąSLHQLXGR8(E\á\OLGHUDPLZ]URVWX:SU]\SDGNX:ĊJLHUPRĪQD]DU\]\NRZDü VWZLHUG]HQLHĪHRGPRPHQWXLQWHJUDFML]8(JRVSRGDUNDVWUDFLáDSUDZLHFDáąGHNDGĊ 5HODFMD3.%:ĊJLHUGRĞUHGQLHMXQLMQHMZRJyOHQLHXOHJáD]PLDQLH&RZLĊFHMQLH MHVWWRZ\QLNZ\GDU]HĔRVWDWQLFKODW]ZLą]DQ\FK]JOREDOQ\PNU\]\VHPILQDVRZ\P Z]ZLą]NX]NWyU\PJRVSRGDUNDZHJLHUVND]RVWDáD]PXV]RQDGRLVWRWQ\FKG]LDáDĔ GRVWRVRZDZF]\FK%DGDMąFUHODFMĊ3.%:ĊJLHUGRĞUHGQLHMXQLMQHMZSRV]F]HJyOQ\FK ODWDFKPRĪQD]DXZDĪ\üĪHMHG\QLHZWU]HFKRNUHVDFKZVSRPQLDQ\VWRVXQHNXOHJá SRSUDZLHDOHMHG\QLHRSNWSURFE\QDVWĊSQLHZUyFLüGRSXQNWXZ\MĞFLD $QDOL]XMąFSRV]F]HJyOQHNDWHJRULHPDMąFHZSá\ZQDZ]URVWSURGXNWXNUDMRZHJR EUXWWRZRNUHVLHRVWDWQLFKODWZHZV]\VWNLFKF]WHUHFKNUDMDFKPRĪQDVWZLHUG]Lü ĪHNOXF]RZąUROĊRGJU\ZDáRVSRĪ\FLHLQG\ZLGXDOQH :ODWDFK±QDMZ\Ī-V]DNRQWU\EXFMDVSRĪ\FLDLQG\ZLGXDOQHJRZHZ]URĞFLH3.%E\áDREVHUZRZDQDQD 6áRZDFMLLZ3ROVFH:W\PRNUHVLHZ\QRVLáDQD6áRZDFMLRUD]Z3ROVFH :&]HFKDFKLQD:ĊJU]HFKE\áDUyZQDRGSRZLHGQLRL:W\PF]DVLHWDNĪH Z8QLL(XURSHMVNLHMVSRĪ\FLHLQG\ZLGXDOQHPLDáRQDMZLĊNV]\ZSá\ZQDZ]URVW3.%

_{ 3DU\WHW VLá\ QDE\ZF]HM 361 ± NXUV ZDOXWRZ\ XZ]JOĊGQLDMąF\ SR]LRP FHQ Z SRV]F]HJyOQ\FK}

NUDMDFK-HVWNRQVWUXRZDQ\QDSRGVWDZLHV]W\ZQRXVWDORQHJRNRV]\NDWRZDUyZLXVáXJZW\PVDP\PF]DVLH ,QIRUPDFMHRSR]LRPLHZDJGODZ\EUDQ\FKNUDMyZ]QDMGXMąVLĊZUDSRUFLH0):>:RUOG(FRQRPLF2XWORRN $SULO%R[$@

_{ 2EOLF]HQLD GRW\F]ąFH 3.% NUDMyZ (XURS\ ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHM SR XZ]JOĊGQLHQLX SDU\WHWX VLá\}

QDE\ZF]HMSU]HSURZDG]RQRQDED]LHGDQ\FKUDSRUWX0):>:RUOG(FRQRPLF2XWORRN2FWREHU@

_{ $QDOL]DVWUXNWXU\SURGXNWXNUDMRZHJREUXWWR]RVWDáDZ\NRQDQDQDSRGVWDZLHGDQ\FKRSXEOLNRZDQ\FK}

SU]H]XU]ĊG\VWDW\VW\F]QHSRV]F]HJyOQ\FKNUDMyZRUD]SU]H](XURVWDW

55 52=:Ï-*2632'$5(.:6&+2'=Ą&<&+1$35=<.à$'=,(.5$-Ï: 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Czechy WĊgry Polska Sáowacja UE

$ PPP 5\VXQHN3.%SHUFDSLWD ħUyGáR>0)::RUOG(FRQRPLF2XWORRN2FWREHU@ .RQWU\EXFMDZ\GDWNyZSXEOLF]Q\FKZHZV]\VWNLFKRSLV\ZDQ\FKNUDMDFKRVF\OR-ZDáDPLĊG]\D1DMQLĪV]\XG]LDáW\FKZ\GDWNyZZ\VWĊSRZDáQD:HJU]HFK VWDQRZLáRWRMHGQDNZ\QLNSROLW\NLRV]F]ĊGQRĞFLRZHMZSURZDG]DQHMZĪ\FLHZRVWDW-QLFKODWDFK'RURNXNRQWU\EXFMDZ\GDWNyZSXEOLF]Q\FKZZĊJLHUVNLP3.% Z\QRVLáDĞUHGQLR:SLHUZV]HMGHNDG]LH;;,ZLHNXNRQWU\EXFMDHNVSRUWXQHWWR ZHZ]URĞFLH3.%SR]RVWDZDáDQHXWUDOQDZHZV]\VWNLFKDQDOL]RZDQ\FKJRVSRGDUNDFK :DUWRMHGQDN]ZUyFLüXZDJĊĪHZHZV]\VWNLFKNUDMDFKUHJLRQXFRUD]LVWRWQLHMV]\ E\áKDQGHOPLĊG]\QDURGRZ\:]URVWHNVSRUWXSR]ZDODáQDUyZQRZDĪHQLHQHJDW\ZQHM NRQWU\EXFMLLPSRUWXNWyU\VWDQRZLáZ\QLNVLOQHJRSRS\WXNRQVXPSF\MQHJR &HFKąNWyUDUyĪQLFXMHEDGDQHNUDMHMHVWZLHONRĞüSURGXNFMLSU]HP\VáRZHM1D U\VXQNXSU]HGVWDZLRQRUHODFMĊZDUWRĞFLSURGXNFMLSU]HP\VáRZHM4_{GRZLHONRĞFL3.%} =HEUDQHSU]\NáDG\PRĪQDSRG]LHOLüQDWU]\JUXS\&]HFK\L6áRZDFMĊFKDUDNWHU\]XMH UHODW\ZQLHZ\VRNLXG]LDáSURGXNFMLSU]HP\VáRZHMZ3.%:RNUHVLHRVWDWQLFKODW RVF\ORZDáRQPLĊG]\D:SU]\SDGNX6áRZDFMLRVWDWQLRXWU]\PXMHVLĊRQ QDSR]LRPLHFKRüZEDGDQ\PRNUHVLHFHFKRZDáDJRUyZQLHĪQDMZLĊNV]D]PLHQ-QRĞüVSRĞUyGZ\PLHQLRQ\FKNUDMyZ8G]LDáSURGXNFMLSU]HP\VáRZHMZSU]\SDGNX 3ROVNLL:ĊJLHUSR]RVWDZDáEDUG]RVWDELOQ\ZFDá\PEDGDQ\PRNUHVLHQDSR]LRPLH ± :DUWR ]DXZDĪ\ü ĪH Z SU]\SDGNX FDáHM 8QLL (XURSHMVNLHM UHODFMD WD MHVW QLĪV]DLZ\QRVLREHFQLH:QDMZLĊNV]\FKHXURSHMVNLFKJRVSRGDUNDFK5_ZLGDü VWDá\WUHQGVSDGNRZ\:\MąWNLHPVą1LHPF\JG]LHXG]LDáSURGXNFMLSU]HP\VáRZHM RVF\OXMHPLĊG]\DZRNUHVLHRVWDWQLFKODW::LHONLHM%U\WDQLLZDUWRĞü 4_{ 3URGXNFMDSU]HP\VáRZDQLHREHMPXMHVHNWRUDEXGRZODQHJR} 5_{ :LHOND%U\WDQLD)UDQFMD:áRFK\+LV]SDQLD}

UMCS

56 0$&,(-%2/,6ĉ*$ WDXOHJáDREQLĪHQLX]ZURNXGRZ]NROHLZH)UDQFMLZRNUHVLH ±QLJG\QLHSU]HNURF]\áDDREHFQLHZ\QRVL , 37 ,305 ,607 ,123 Percent of GDP ,999 ,103 ,346 Percent change -0,7 -1 -0,6 Percent of GDP 15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% 29% 31% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Czechy WĊgry Polska Sáowacja UE

5\VXQHN3URGXNFMDSU]HP\VáRZDMDNR3.% ħUyGáR>ýHVNê6WDWLVWLFNêÒĜDG.|]SRQWL6WDWLV]WLNDL+LYDWDOâWDWLVWLFNêÒUDG65(XURVWDW@ 6WRSLHĔRWZDUWRĞFLJRVSRGDUHN(XURS\ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHMQDĞZLDW -HGQ\P]QDMZDĪQLHMV]\FKF]\QQLNyZGHF\GXMąF\FKRZ]URĞFLHJRVSRGDUF]\PMHVW NRQNXUHQF\MQRĞüRUD]RWZDUWRĞüJRVSRGDUNLQDĞZLDW1LQLHMV]DDQDOL]DNRQFHWUXMHVLĊ QDGUXJLPDVSHNFLH2WZDUWRĞüPRĪHE\üPLHU]RQD]DSRPRFąZLHOXZVNDĨQLNyZ'R QDMEDUG]LHMSRSXODUQ\FKQDOHĪ\VWRVXQHNFDáHJRKDQGOX]DJUDQLF]QHJRVXPDHNSRUWX LLPSRUWXGR3.%RUD]HNVSRUWXGR3.%3LHUZV]\]QLFK]RVWDáSU]HGVWDZLRQ\QD U\VXQNX.UDMH(XURS\ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHMD]ZáDV]F]D&]HFK\:ĊJU\L6áR-ZDFMĊPRĪHP\RNUHĞOLüPLDQHPPDá\FKJRVSRGDUHNRWZDUW\FK:HZV]\WNLFKWU]HFK SU]\SDGNDFKZDUWRĞüLPSRUWXLHNVSRUWXMHVWZ\ĪV]DQLĪZ\WZRU]RQHJRSURGXNWX NUDMRZHJREUXWWR:DUWRWXWDM]ZUyFLüXZDJĊQDWRĪHNUDMHJRVSRGDUF]RQDMEDUG]LHM RWZDUWHQDĞZLDWSURZDG]ąKDQGHO]DJUDQLF]Q\WU]\OXEF]WHURNURWQLHZLĊNV]\QLĪ LFKZáDVQH3.%/LGHUDPLZWHMG]LHG]LQLHVąUHODW\ZQLHQLHZLHONLH]DWRVLOQHJR-VSRGDUF]RNUDMHD]MDW\FNLHWDNLHMDN+RQJNRQJF]\6LQJDSXU6_

6_{ 2EOLF]HQLD QD SRVWDZLH GDQ\FK %DQNX ĝZLDWRZHJR ]  URNX %D]D GDQ\FK :RUOG 'HYHORSPHQW}

,QGLFDWRUV

57 52=:Ï-*2632'$5(.:6&+2'=Ą&<&+1$35=<.à$'=,(.5$-Ï: 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Czechy WĊgry Polska Sáowacja

5\VXQHN+DQGHO]DJUDQLF]Q\MDNR3.% ħUyGáR>0)::RUOG(FRQRPLF2XWORRN2FWREHU@ :ĞUyGDQDOL]RZDQ\FKSU]\NáDGyZ](XURS\ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHM3ROVNDVWDQRZL LVWRWQ\Z\MąWHN&KRüZDUWRĞüKDQGOX]DJUDQLF]QHJRZUHODFMLGR3.%VXNFHV\ZQLH URĞQLHWRMHGQDNQLHMHVWWRSURFHVEDUG]RG\QDPLF]Q\:DUWR]ZUyFLüXZDJĊĪHDNFHVMD GR8QLL(XURSHMVNLHMVSRZRGRZDáDLVWRWQHSU]\VSLHV]HQLHZ\PLDQ\KDQGORZHM3ROVNL HNVSRUWGR8(ZURNXZ]UyVáRUUSRGREQH]MDZLVNR]DREVHUZRZDQR ZSR]RVWDá\FKDQDOL]RZDQ\FKNUDMDFK1LHPQLHMMHGQDNZF]DVLHJOREDOQHJRNU\]\-VXILQDQVRZJRZODWDFK±3ROVNDGRĞZLDGF]\áDPQLHMV]HJRVSRZROQLHQLD ZHNSRUFLH]ZáDV]F]DGR8(ZSRUyZQDQLXGRSR]RVWDá\FKNUDMyZ:URNX SROVNLHNVSRUWQDXQLMQ\U\QHN]PQLHMV]\áVLĊRUU]DĞZSU]\SDGNXSR]RVWDá\FK EDGDQ\FKNUDMyZVSDGHNRVF\ORZDáPLĊG]\6áRZDFMDD&]HFK\L:ĊJU\

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

90%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Poza UE Do UE 5\VXQHN8G]LDáHNVSRUWXZ3.%&]HFK\

UMCS

 0$&,(-%2/,6ĉ*$

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

90%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Poza UE Do UE 5\VXQHN8G]LDáHNVSRUWXZ3.%:ĊJU\

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

90%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Poza UE Do UE 5\VXQHN8G]LDáHNVSRUWXZ3.%3ROVND

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

90%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Poza UE Do UE 5\VXQHN8G]LDáHNVSRUWXZ3.%6áRZDFMD ħUyGáR>0):%D]D'LUHFWLRQRI7UDGH@ -DNZ\QLND]GDQ\FKSU]HGVWDZLRQ\FKQDU\VXQNDFK±SRGVWDZRZ\PSDUWQH-UHPKDQGORZ\PGODNUDMyZUHJLRQXSR]RVWDMHU\QHNHXURSHMVNL.LHURZDQHMHVWWDP SRQDGFDáHJRHNVSRUWX:ODWDFK±GDáRVLĊ]DXZDĪ\üVWRSQLRZ\VSDGHN XG]LDáX8(ZHNVSRUFLHZV]\VWNLFKF]WHUHFKNUDMyZ(XURS\ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHM

UMCS

 52=:Ï-*2632'$5(.:6&+2'=Ą&<&+1$35=<.à$'=,(.5$-Ï: ĝZLDGF]\WRRZLĊNV]HMG\ZHUV\ILNDFMLJHRJUDILF]QHMHNVSRUWHUyZ1LHPQLHMMHGQDN E\áWREDUG]RáDJRGQ\SURFHVZZ\QLNXNWyUHJRXG]LDá8(ZFDáNRZLW\PHNVSRUFLH VSDGáMHG\QLHRRNSNWSURFZFDá\PRNUHVLH3RF]ąZV]\RGURNXQDVWąSLá SRQRZQ\Z]URVWXG]LDáXNUDMyZF]áRQNRZVNLFK8(ZHNVSRUFLHWU]HFKDQDOL]RZDQ\FK NUDMyZ:\MąWHNVWDQRZLJRVSRGDUNDF]HVND:SU]\SDGNXWHMRVWDWQLHMREVHUZRZDQ\ MHVWGDOV]\VWRSQLRZ\VSDGHNXG]LDáX8(ZFDáNRZLW\PHNVSRUFLH $QDOL]DNXUVyZZDOXWRZ\FKDQDOL]RZDQ\FKNUDMyZ 7U]\EDGDQHNUDMHSURZDG]Lá\ZRPDZLDQ\PRNUHVLHSROLW\NĊSá\QQHJRNXUVX ZDOXWRZHJR :DOXWD 6áRZDFML MHVW Z W\P SU]\SDGNX VSHF\ILF]Q\P SU]\SDGNLHP .RURQD VáRZDFND  OLVWRSDGD  URNX ]RVWDáD REMĊWD PHFKDQL]PHP (50 ,,7_

DVW\F]QLDURNX6áRZDFMDVWDáDVLĊF]áRQNLHPVWUHI\HXUR

.XUV ZDOXWRZ\ WR MHGHQ ] F]\QQLNyZ GHF\GXMąF\FK R NRQNXUHQF\MQRĞFL NUDMX QDJOREDOQ\PU\QNX:]ZLą]NX]W\PRVáDELHQLHNUDMRZHMZDOXW\PRĪHSURZDG]Lü GRZ]URVWXNRQNXUHQF\MQRĞFLHNVSRUWXRUD]RJUDQLF]HQLDLPSRUWXFRZSá\QLHSR-]\W\ZQLH ]DUyZQR QD VDOGR QD UDFKXQNX REURWyZ ELHĪąF\FK MDN L WHPSR Z]URVWX JRVSRGDUF]HJR:HMĞFLHGR8QLL(XURSHMVNLHM]ZLĊNV]\áRDWUDNF\MQRĞüLQZHVW\F\MQą ZLĊNV]RĞFLDQDOL]RZDQ\FKNUDMyZ6SRZRGRZDáRWRZ]URVW]DJUDQLF]Q\FKLQZHVW\FML SRUWIHORZ\FKRUD]QDSá\ZEH]SRĞUHGQLFKLQZHVW\FML]DJUDQLF]Q\W\SXJUHHQILHOG 3RQLHZDĪZLĊFHMQLĪSRáRZDHNVSRUWXZV]\VWNLFKNUDMyZUHJLRQXWUDILDGRVWUHI\ HXURX]DVDGQLRQHMHVWSU]HDQDOL]RZDQLHZDUWRĞFLSRV]F]HJyOQ\FKZDOXWZ]JOĊGHP HXUR5\VXQHNREUD]XMHVWRSLHĔDSUHFMDFMLOXEGHSUHFMDFMLSRV]F]HJyOQ\FKZDOXW-HĞOL SU]\MąüĪHHXURWRZDOXWDED]RZDDSUHFMDFMDSRV]F]HJyOQ\FKZDOXWUHJLRQXEĊG]LH R]QDF]DáDVSDGHNNXUVXDSU]H]WRXMHPQąVWRSĊ]ZURWX:REOLF]HQLDFK]DSXQNW RGQLHVLHQLD SU]\MĊWR NXUV\ ZDOXW ] GQLD SRSU]HG]DMąFHJR PRPHQW DNFHVML GR 8QLL (XURSHMVNLHM1DVWĊSQLHZNROHMQ\FKRNUHVDFKREOLF]RQRVWRSĊ]ZURWX]SRV]F]HJyO-Q\FKZDOXWZVWRVXQNXGRGQLDSRSU]HG]DMąFHJRSU]\VWąSLHQLHGR8QLL:WHQVSRVyE SRZVWDáZ\NUHVVNXPXORZDQHMVWRS\]ZURWXZ]JOĊGHPZDUWRĞFLSRF]ąWNRZHMMDNą E\áNXUVGDQHMZDOXW\ZPRPHQFLHSU]\VWąSLHQLDGR8( 1DSá\ZREFHJRNDSLWDáXPLDáLVWRWQ\ZSá\ZQDDSUHFMDFMĊZDOXWZZLĊNV]RĞFL DQDOL]RZDQ\FKNUDMyZ:\MąWNLHPE\áZĊJLHUVNLIRULQW+8)NWyU\SRXPLDUNRZDQHM DSUHFMDFMLZSLHUZV]\PURNXSRUR]V]HU]HQLX8(]DF]ąáWUDFLüQDZDUWRĞFLLSRURNX RVF\ORZDáZRNROLFDFKNXUVXVSU]HGUR]V]HU]HQLD:SU]\SDGNXWU]HFKSR]RVWDá\FK ZDOXWPRĪHP\]DREVHUZRZDüNRQVHNZHQWQąDSUHFMDFMĊSU]H]NROHMQHODWD3ROVNL ]áRW\3/1E\áZDOXWąNWyUDQDMEDUG]LHM]\VNDáDQDZDUWRĞFLZW\PRNUHVLH2GPDMD GROLSFDURNXZDUWRĞü]áRWHJRZ]URVáDR:W\PVDP\PPLHVLąFX

7_{ 0HFKDQL]P NXUVyZ ZDOXWRZ\FK DQJ (XURSHDQ ([FKDQJH 5DWH 0HFKDQLVP ]DNáDGD PDNV\PDOQ\}

GRSXV]F]DOQ\]DNUHVZDKDĔGDQHMZDOXW\Z]JOĊGHPHXUR“3U]\VWąSLHQLHGRPHFKDQL]PX(50,,RUD] SU]HE\ZDQLHZW\PUHĪLPLHSU]H]ODWDMHVWMHGQ\P]ZDUXQNyZSU]\VWąSLHQLDGRVWUHI\HXUR

 0$&,(-%2/,6ĉ*$ UyZQLHĪF]HVNDNRURQD&=.RVLąJQĊáDVZRMąPDNV\PDOQąZDUWRĞü±Z\ĪV]ąR RGWHMVSU]HGSU]\VWąSLHQLDGR8(6áRZDFNDNRURQD6..ZW\PVDP\PRNUHVLH ]\VNDáDDVW\F]QLDURNX]RVWDáD]DVWąSLRQDHXUR -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CZK HUF PLN SKK 5\VXQHN)OXNWXDFMDNXUVyZZDOXWNUDMyZ(XURS\ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHM ħUyGáR>(%&%D]D(XUR)RUHLJQ([FKDQJH5HIHUHQFH5DWHV@ 8SDGHNEDQNX/HKPDQ%URWKHUVZU]HĞQLDURNXMHVWXZDĪDQ\]DSRF]ąWHN ĞZLDWRZHJRNU\]\VXILQDQVRZHJR=DZLURZDQLDQDJOREDOQ\PU\QNXILQDQVRZ\P PLDá\ EH]SRĞUHGQL ZSá\Z QD ]DFKRZDQLH VLĊ ZDOXW Z UHJLRQLH :ĊJLHUVNL IRULQW RUD]SROVNL]áRW\XOHJá\QDMZLĊNV]HMGHSUHFMDFMLNWyUDWUZDáDRNPLHVLĊF\5\QNL ILQDQVRZH SU]HMDZLDá\ Z W\P RNUHVLH GXĪą DZHUVMĊ GR U\]\ND L Z NRQVHNZHQFML Z\FRI\ZDá\ DNW\ZD ] NUDMyZ UR]ZLMDMąF\FK VLĊ :DUWR ]ZUyFLü XZDJĊ ĪH F]HVND NRURQDZW\PVDP\PF]DVLHXOHJáDSHZQHPXRVáDELHQLXMHGQDNQLHSRUyZQ\ZDOQLH PQLHMV]HPXDQLĪHOLIRULQWF]\]áRW\3RQLHZDĪNU\]\VXPRZQLHUR]SRF]ąáVLĊPLH-VLąFH SU]HG SU]\VWąSLHQLHP 6áRZDFML GR VWUHI\ HXUR NRURQD VáRZDFND E\áD Z W\P RNUHVLHREMĊWDPHFKDQL]PHP(50,,:]ZLą]NX]W\PEUDNIOXNWXDFMLNXUVXNRURQ\ Z\QLNDá]XV]W\ZQLHQLDNXUVXZ]JOĊGHPHXURZW\PRNUHVLHDQLHZ\MąWNRZHMVLá\ VáRZDFNLHMZDOXW\ 2LOHVLOQDGHSUHFMDFMDIRULQWDZW\PF]DVLHPRJáDR]QDF]DüREDZĊLQZHVWRUyZFR GRSHUVSHNW\ZJRVSRGDUF]\FKNUDMXZREOLF]XĞZLDWRZHJRNU\]\VXILQDQVRZHJRWR ZSU]\SDGNXSROVNLHJR]áRWHJRGHSUHFMDFMDE\áDZ]QDF]QHMPLHU]H]ZLą]DQD]GXĪ\P SU]HZDUWRĞFLRZDQLHPSROVNLHMZDOXW\ZODWDFKSRSU]HG]DMąF\FKNU\]\VILQDQVRZ\ :LHOXVSHFMDOLVWyZZURNX]ZUDFDáRXZDJĊQDWRĪHSROVNL]áRW\ZUD]]WXUHFNą OLUąRUD]SRáXGQLRZRDIU\NDĔVNLPUDQGHPQDOHĪąGRQDMEDUG]LHMSU]HZDUWRĞFLRZDQ\FK ZDOXWQDĞZLHFLH>&OLQHLLQQL@

UMCS

 52=:Ï-*2632'$5(.:6&+2'=Ą&<&+1$35=<.à$'=,(.5$-Ï:

1LHPQLHM MHGQDN ZDUWR ]D]QDF]\ü ĪH SR RNUHVLH GHSUHFMDFML ZV]\VWNLFK DQD-OL]RZDQ\FKZDOXWNWyUDWUZDáDGRPDUFDURNXZNROHMQ\PURNX]DF]Ċá\VLĊ RQHSRQRZQLHXPDFQLDü2GSRáRZ\URNXZLGDüGXĪH]UyĪQLFRZDQLHSRPLĊ-G]\WU]HPDDQDOL]RZDQ\PLZDOXWDPL.XUVIRULQWDXOHJá]QDF]QHMGHSUHFMDFMLLSRG NRQLHFURNXZĊJLHUVNDZDOXWDE\áDWDĔV]DRZVWRVXQNXGRNXUVXG]LHĔ SU]HGZHMĞFLHPGR8(3RGNRQLHFURNXZDUWRĞüF]HVNLHMNRURQ\ZVWRVXQNX GRHXURE\áDRZ\ĪV]DRGZDUWRĞFLZGQLXDNFHVML,QZHVWRU]\XZDĪDOLF]HVNą JRVSRGDUNĊ]DMHGQą]QDMEH]SLHF]QLHMV]\FKZUHJLRQLHFRSURZDG]LáRGRDSUHFMDFMLMHM ZDOXW\7DNDV\WXDFMDRGELMDáDVLĊMHGQDNQHJDW\ZQLHQDNRQNXUHQF\MQRĞFLF]HVNLHJR HNVSRUWX:NRQWHNĞFLHGXĪHJRZSá\ZXKDQGOX]DJUDQLF]QHJRQDJRVSRGDUNĊF]HVNą VLOQDNRURQDVWDQRZLáDF]\QQLNRJUDQLF]DMąF\Z]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\ 3ROVNDZDOXWDSRSRF]ąWNRZHMGHSUHFMDFMLQDSU]HáRPLHLURNXSRZUyFLáD QDĞFLHĪNĊRVáDELHQLD1DNRQLHFURNXVWRSD]ZURWX]H]áRWHJRZVWRVXQNXGR NXUVX]PDMDURNXZ\QRVLáD $QDOL]XMąFU\VXQHNZDUWR]ZUyFLüXZDJĊĪHRGPRPHQWXZVWąSLHQLDGR8QLL (XURSHMVNLHMGRZ\EXFKXĞZLDWRZHJRNU\]\VXILQDQVRZHJRNXUV]áRWHJRSRUXV]DáVLĊ ZWDNLVDPVSRVyEMDNF]HVNDLVáRZDFNDNRURQDRGUyĪQLDMąFVLĊ]QDF]ąFRRGIRULQ-WD-HGQDNRGPRPHQWXZ\EXFKXNU\]\VXNXUVIRULQWDL]áRWHJRE\á\GXĪRPRFQLHM ]ZLą]DQH]HVREąDQLĪHOL]F]HVNąNRURQą 7DEHOD:VSyáF]\QQLNNRUHODFMLOLQLRZHM3HDUVRQDSRPLĊG]\VNXPXORZDQąVWRSą]ZURWX NXUVX(853/1DVWRSDPL]ZURWXSR]RVWDá\FKZDOXWUHJLRQX(XURS\ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHM 2NUHVNXUVZDOXWRZ\ .RURQDF]HVND EUR/CZK .RURQDVáRZDFND EUR/SKK )RULQWZĊJLHUVNL (85+8) 0DM±ZU]HVLHĔ    :U]HVLHĔ±JUXG]LHĔ  –  ħUyGáRREOLF]HQLDZáDVQHQDSRGVWDZLH>(%&%D]D(XUR)RUHLJQ([FKDQJH5HIHUHQFH5DWHV@ 6SRVWU]HĪHQLHWRSRWZLHUG]DMąREOLF]HQLDVWDW\VW\F]QH:DQDOL]LHZ\NRU]\VWDQR ZVSyáF]\QQLNNRUHODFMLOLQLRZHM3HDUVRQDSRPLĊG]\VNXPXORZDQ\PLPLHVLĊF]Q\PL VWRSDPL]ZURWXSRV]F]HJyOQ\FKNXUVyZZDOXWRZ\FK_{3ROVNL]áRW\ZRNUHVLHSU]HG} UR]SRF]ĊFLHPNU\]\VXILQDQVRZJRZURNXZUHODFMLGRHXURZ\ND]\ZDáVLOQą NRUHODFMĊ ]DUyZQR ] NRURQą F]HVNą MDN L VáRZDFNą : W\P VDP\P F]DVLH PRĪQD ]DREVHUZRZDüEUDNNRUHODFMLNXUVyZ]áRWHJRLIRULQWD:GUXJLP]EDGDQ\FKRNUHVyZ

_{ 6WRSD]ZURWXZ\QLND]UyĪQLF\ZDUWRĞFLZGDQ\PPRPHQFLHLNXUVHPSRF]ąWNRZ\PDZLĊF]GQLD}

SRSU]HG]DMąFHJR ZVWąSLHQLH GR 8QLL (XURSHMVNLHM :VSyáF]\QQLN NRUHODFML ]RVWDá REOLF]RQ\ ]DUyZQR GOD G]LHQQ\FKMDNLPLHVLĊF]Q\FKVNXPXORZDQ\FKVWyS]ZURWX.RUHODFMHGODG]LHQQ\FKRUD]PLHVLĊF]Q\FKVWyS ]ZURWXQLH]DZLHUDMąLVWRWQ\FKUyĪQLF

 0$&,(-%2/,6ĉ*$

ZLGDü RVáDELHQLH NRUHODFML ] NRURQD F]HVNą -HGQRF]HĞQLH SRMDZLáD VLĊ SR]\W\ZQD NRUHODFMD]ZDOXWąZĊJLHUVNą 7UXGQR QD W\P HWDSLH ZVND]Dü MDNLH F]\QQLNL ]GHWHUPLQRZDá\ WDN LVWRWQą ]PLDQĊUHODFMLPLĊG]\SRV]F]HJyOQ\PLZDOXWDPL:W\PFHOXQDOHĪDáRE\XZ]JOĊGQLü LQIRUPDFMHGRW\F]ąFHELODQVXSáDWQLF]HJR$QDOL]DPLĊG]\QDURGRZ\FKSU]HSá\ZyZ ILQDQVRZ\FKPLQURG]DMX]DQJDĪRZDQHJRNDSLWDáXSRZLQQDSRPyFZXG]LHOHQLX RGSRZLHG]LQDWRS\WDQLH=HZ]JOĊGXQDRJUDQLF]RQHUDP\QLQLHMV]HMSUDF\EĊG]LH WRSU]HGPLRWHPNROHMQ\FKEDGDĔ =DNRĔF]HQLH

6WRSLHĔ UR]ZRMX JRVSRGDUHN (XURS\ ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHM SRPLPR SRZLHU]-FKRZQ\FK SRGRELHĔVWZ Z\QLNDMąF\FK ]H ]EOLĪRQ\FK ZDUXQNyZ WUDQVIRUPDFML MHVW VWRVXQNRZR]UyĪQLFRZDQ\*RVSRGDUNDF]HVNDRUD]VáRZDFNDVąQDMEDUG]LHMXSU]HP\-VáRZLRQH:W\PZ\PLDU]HJRVSRGDUNLZĊJLHUVNDRUD]SROVND]QDF]QLHLPXVWĊSXMą :V]\VWNLHNUDMH]Z\MąWNLHP3ROVNLVąEDUG]RRWZDUWHQDĞZLDW±Z]ZLą]NX]W\P ĪH PDMą UHODW\ZQLH QLHZLHONLH SRSXODFMH ]UR]XPLDáH MHVW ĪH LFK UR]ZyM SRZLQLHQ RSLHUDüVLĊQDZ\PLDQLHPLĊG]\QDURGRZHM1LHPQLHMMHGQDNFRXZ\GDWQLáJOREDOQ\ NU\]\VILQDQVRZ\RWZDUWRĞüQDĞZLDWQLHVLH]HVREąSHZQHU\]\NDSU]HGNWyU\PL PDáHMRWZDUWHMJRVSRGDUFHWUXGQRVLĊEURQLü 3URZDG]HQLHGXĪHMZ\PLDQ\KDQGORZHMVSUDZLDĪHV]F]HJyOQLHZDĪQ\PF]\QQL-NLHPVWDMHVLĊNXUVZDOXWRZ\'HF\GXMHRQRDWUDNF\MQRĞFLWRZDUyZLXVáXJRIHURZDQ\FK SU]H]NDĪG\NUDM6áRZDFMDMDNRSLHUZV]H]EDGDQ\FKSDĔVWZZHV]áDRGVWUHI\HXUR DW\PVDP\PZ\HOLPLQRZDáDMHGHQ]F]\QQLNyZZSá\ZDMąF\FKQDPLĊG]\QDURGRZą Z\PLDQĊKDQGORZą2EVHUZRZDQDVLOQDDSUHFMDFMDNXUVyZZDOXWZSRáRZLHSLHUZV]HM GHNDG\ ;;, ZLHNX Z SHZQ\P VWRSQLX RJUDQLF]DáD PRĪOLZRĞFL UR]ZRMX HNVSRUWX ZZLĊNV]RĞFLEDGDQ\FKSU]\SDGNyZ1LHPQLHMMHGQDNZF]DVLHJOREDOQHJRNU\]\VX ILQDQVRZHJR GHSUHFMDFMD NUDMRZHM ZDOXW\ ZVSRPDJDáD NRQNXUHQF\MQRĞü HNVSRUWX DSU]H]WRVW\PXORZDáDZ]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\ $QDOL]XMąF]DFKRZDQLHSRV]F]HJyOQ\FKZDOXWZRNUHVLHPLĊG]\DNFHVMąGR8QLL (XURSHMVNLHMDĞZLDWRZ\PNU\]\VHPILQDQVRZ\PRUD]ZNROHMQ\FKODWDFK]DLQWHUH-VXMąFąPRĪQDX]QDü]PLDQĊUHODFMLPLĊG]\SRV]F]HJyOQ\PLZDOXWDPL.XUVSROVNLHJR ]áRWHJRVLOQLH]ZLą]DQ\]F]HVNąLVáRZDFNąNRURQąRGUR]SRF]ĊFLDNU\]\VXILQDQ-VRZHJR]DF]ąáUHDJRZDüSRGREQLHMDNZĊJLHUVNLIRULQW2GPRPHQWXUR]V]HU]HQLD 8(GRZ\EXFKXNU\]\VXILQDQVRZHJRWDNDUHODFMDQLHLVWQLDáD

UMCS

 52=:Ï-*2632'$5(.:6&+2'=Ą&<&+1$35=<.à$'=,(.5$-Ï: %LEOLRJUDILD  %DOGRQH66GRJDWL)7DMROL/3DWWHUQVDQGGHWHUPLQDQWVRILQWHUQDWLRQDOIUDJPHQWDWLRQRISUR GXFWLRQ(YLGHQFHIURPRXWZDUGSURFHVVLQJWUDGHEHWZHHQWKH(8DQG&HQWUDO(DVWHUQ(XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV6SULQJHU9HUODJ  &OLQH5::LOOLDPVRQ-.H\$VLDQ&XUUHQFLHV6WLOO6XEVWDQWLDOO\8QGHUYDOXHGZLWK5HVSHFWWR 'ROODU3HWHUVRQ,QVWLWXWH:DV]\QJWRQ  (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ(XURSHDQ(FRQRPLF)RUHFDVW±$XWXPQ(XURSHDQ8QLRQ  +DOO5(7D\ORU-%0DNURHNRQRPLD:13:1:DUV]DZD  ,QVW\WXW(NRQRPLF]Q\1%3$QDOL]DV\WXDFMLJRVSRGDUF]HMZNUDMDFK(XURS\ĝURGNRZHML:VFKRG QLHM±PDM1%3:DUV]DZD  0):,0):RUOG(FRQRPLF2XWORRN$SULO%R[$  0):,0):RUOG(FRQRPLF2XWORRN±2FWREHU:DV]\QJWRQ  0LQLVWHUVWZR*RVSRGDUNL3ROVND5DSRUWRVWDQLHKDQGOX]DJUDQLF]QHJR:DUV]DZD  0RQWLHO3-,QWHUQDWLRQDO0DFURHFRQRPLFV:LOH\±%ODFNZHOO (PHUJLQJPDUNHWV¶HFRQRPLFJURZWKEDVHGRQ&HQWUDO(DVWHUQ(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV 7KHHFRQRP\RI&]HFK5HSXEOLF3RODQG6ORYDN5HSXEOLFDQG+XQJDU\LVWKHVXEMHFWRIWKHVWXG\ 7KHDLPRIWKHDQDO\VLVLVWRGHVFULEHNH\GULYHUVWKDWKDYHFRQWULEXWHGLQWRHFRQRPLFJURZWKLQUHFHQW \HDUV LQ DOO IRXU FRXQWULHV ,QGXVWULDO SURGXFWLRQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGH¶V VKDUH LQ *'3 JHRJUDSKLFDO VWUXFWXUHLQH[SRUWVDVZHOODVH[FKDQJHUDWHVZHUHNH\PHDVXUHVWKDWKDYHEHHQWDNHQLQWRFRQVLGHU-DWLRQ$QDO\VLVVXJJHVWVVLJQLILFDQWGLYHUVLW\DPRQJ&HQWUDODQG(DVWHUQ(XURSHDQ&((FRXQWULHV,Q JHQHUDO&((FRXQWULHVFDQEHGHVFULEHGDVVPDOORSHQHFRQRPLHV7KHRQO\RXWOLHULV3RODQGZKLFKLV UHODWLYHO\ODUJHFRXQWU\LQWKHUHJLRQDVZHOODVLWUHSUHVHQWVORZVKDUHRILQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDGHLQ*'3 ([FKDQJHUDWHVDQDO\VLVEHIRUHWKHJOREDOILQDQFLDOFULVLVLQVKRZHGVWURQJUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ7KH &]HFK.RUXQD7KH6ORYDN.RUXQDDQG3ROLVK=ORW\$IWHUWKHUHODWLRQZHDNHQHG6LQFH 3ROLVK=ORW\VKRZHGVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQZLWK+XQJDULDQ)RULQWLQVWHDG

UMCS

Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)