Rola polityki walutowej w gospodarce Łotwy

A N N A L E S

8 1 , 9 ( 5 6 , 7$7 , 6   0 $ 5 , $ (   & 8 5 , (  6 . à 2 ' 2 : 6 . $ /8%/,1±32/21,$ 92/;/9,,, 6(&7,2+  8QLZHUV\WHW0DULL&XULH6NáRGRZVNLHMZ/XEOLQLH.DWHGUD*RVSRGDUNLĝZLDWRZHML,QWHJUDFML(XURSHMVNLHM .$7$5=<1$7:$52:6.$

7KHUROHRIWKHH[FKDQJHUDWHSROLF\LQWKH/DWYLDQHFRQRP\

5RODSROLW\NLZDOXWRZHMZJRVSRGDUFHàRWZ\ .H\ZRUGVH[FKDQJHUDWHLQIODWLRQHFRQRPLFJURZWK 6áRZDNOXF]RZHNXUVZDOXWRZ\LQIODFMDZ]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\ ,QWURGXFWLRQ 7KHIRFXVLQWKLVSDSHULVSXWRQ/DWYLDZLWKFRPSDULVRQWRRWKHU&HQWUDODQG (DVWHUQ(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV&((_{/DWYLDLVRQHRIWKHHPHUJLQJHFRQRPLHVZKLFK} LV D VPDOO RSHQ DQG QHW GHEWRU FRXQWU\ >6FKQDEO  S @ /DWYLD IXUWKHUPRUH H[SHULHQFHGDVWURQJERRPSHULRGIRUZKLFKLWZDVFDOOHGµ%DOWLFWLJHU¶VXSSRUWHG E\KLJKFDSLWDOLQIORZHVSHFLDOO\LQWKHUHDOHVWDWHDQGILQDQFLDOVHFWRUIURPWKHPLG VXQWLODQGDEXVWSKDVHLQZLWKKLJKORVHVLQRXWSXWHPSOR\PHQW DQGFDSLWDORXWIORZ7KLVFRXQWU\KDVRYHUFRPHWKHHFRQRPLFGLIILFXOWLHVDQGMRLQHG (XURSHDQ0RQHWDU\8QLRQ(08RQ-DQXDU\ 7KHDLPRIWKHSDSHULVWRDVVHVVWKHLPSDFWRI/DWYLD¶VH[FKDQJHUDWHSROLF\RQ WZRPDLQJRDOVRIPRQHWDU\SROLF\SULFHVWDELOLW\DQGHFRQRPLFJURZWK7KHDS-SOLHGUHVHDUFKPHWKRGLVDWLPHVHULHVDQDO\VLVRIYDULRXVHFRQRPLFLQGLFDWRUVVXFK DVH[FKDQJHUDWHV*'3JURZWKLQIODWLRQUDWHH[SRUWVDQGLPSRUWVFXUUHQWDFFRXQW EDODQFHDQGXQHPSOR\PHQWUDWH7KHDQDO\VLVLQYROYHVWKHSHULRGRI±DQG  _{7KHJURXSRI&HQWUDO(DVWHUQ(XURSHDQFRXQWULHVLQFOXGHV%XOJDULD&]HFK5HSXEOLF(VWRQLD+XQJDU\} /DWYLD/LWKXDQLD3RODQG5RPDQLD6ORYDN5HSXEOLF6ORYHQLD

UMCS

 .$7$5=<1$7:$52:6.$

LVEDVHGRQVWDWLVWLFDOGDWDDQGUHVHDUFKFDUULHGRXWE\,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\)RXQG (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQFHQWUDOEDQNVDQGRWKHUUHVHDUFKJURXSV

7KHUROHRIH[FKDQJHUDWHSROLF\LQVPDOORSHQHFRQRPLHV

7KHGHEDWHUHJDUGLQJWKHUROHRIH[FKDQJHUDWHSROLF\LQPDFURHFRQRPLFSROLF\ ORQJUXQ JURZWK RFFXSLHV D LPSRUWDQW SRVLWLRQ LQ HFRQRPLF UHVHDUFK >/DQH  SS±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±@ SUREOHPRIDQLQGHSHQGHQWPRQHWDU\SROLF\LVWKDWWKHWUDQVPLVVLRQPHFKDQLVP LQVPDOOFRXQWULHVRFFXUVPDLQO\WKURXJKLWVLPSDFWRQWKHH[FKDQJHUDWHDQG WKURXJKEDODQFHVKHHWHIIHFWVQRWWKHOHQGLQJFKDQQHOVLQFHILQDQFLDOPDUNHWV DUHXQGHUGHYHORSHG,QRWKHUZRUGVPRQHWDU\SROLF\ZLOOEHODUJHO\GULYHQE\ H[FKDQJHUDWHFRQVLGHUDWLRQV EHFDXVHRIFHQWUDOEDQN¶VODFNRIFUHGLELOLW\PRQHWDU\SROLF\LQVPDOOVWDWHV LVOLNHO\WREHSURF\FOLFDOPHDQLQJWKDWLWFDQQRWEHXVHGWRVPRRWKWKHEXVL-QHVVF\FOHRUPRUHJHQHUDOO\IRUVWDELOL]DWLRQSROLFLHV>&DOYR5HLQKDUW SS±@,QSUDFWLFHZKHQH[WHUQDOILQDQFLQJLVDEXQGDQWFDSLWDOLQIORZV VXUJHOHDGLQJWRH[FKDQJHUDWHDSSUHFLDWLRQDQGLQWHUHVWUDWHVIDOOWRPLQLPL]H WKH DSSUHFLDWLRQ 'XULQJ FULVHV ZLWK FDSLWDO IORZLQJ RXW WKH H[FKDQJH UDWH GHSUHFLDWHVDQGLQWHUHVWUDWHVLQFUHDVHWRVXSSRUWLW7KHVHSURF\FOLFDOVZLQJV LQLQWHUHVWUDWHVDQGWKHDYDLODELOLW\RIH[WHUQDOILQDQFLQJH[SODLQSURF\FOLFDO VZLQJVLQFDSLWDOLQIORZVDQGDUHWKHRSSRVLWHRIKRZPRQHWDU\SROLF\VKRXOG LGHDOO\ZRUN WKHYRODWLOLW\RIWKHH[FKDQJHUDWHFDQEHH[FHVVLYHEHFDXVHIRUHLJQH[FKDQJH PDUNHWVDUHLOOLTXLG$VWKHIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHPDUNHWIRUGRPHVWLFFXUUHQFLHV LQVPDOOVWDWHVLVRIWHQQDUURZDQGLOOLTXLGLWLVVXEMHFWWRVSLNHVLIDODUJH WUDQVDFWLRQWDNHVSODFH $QRWKHUSRVVLELOLW\IRUVPDOOFRXQWULHVLVWKHFKRLFHRIIL[HGH[FKDQJHUDWHV\V-WHPFXUUHQF\ERDUGGROODUL]DWLRQPRQHWDU\XQLRQRULQWHUPHGLDWHH[FKDQJHUDWHV V\VWHPFUDZOLQJEDQGSHJJHGH[FKDQJHUDWHZLWKLQKRUL]RQWDOEDQGFUDZOLQJSHJ FRQYHQWLRQDO SHJJHG DUUDQJHPHQW >,0) D SS ± DQG 7\PRF]NR  SS±@$IL[HGH[FKDQJHUDWHKDVVRPHDGYDQWDJHVIRUVPDOOFRXQWULHVEXWLWLV QRWRSWLPDOLQHDFKFDVH

UMCS

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±@ ,QFRQWUDVWWRWKLVYLHZKRZHYHU)UDQNHODQG5RVHKDYHSRLQWHGRXWWKDWFDXVDO-LW\PD\DOVRUXQLQWKHRSSRVLWHGLUHFWLRQZLWKPHPEHUVKLSRIWKHVDPHWUDGHDUHD DFWXDOO\ VWLPXODWLQJ WUDGH EHWZHHQ PHPEHUV EHFDXVH RI FORVHU PDUNHW LQWHJUDWLRQ DQGKHQFHDJUHDWHUGHJUHHRIRSHQQHVVEHWZHHQWKHPHPEHUVWDWHV>)UDQNHO5RVH SS±@,IWKLVLVWKHFDVHWKHQPHPEHUVKLSRIWKHHXUR]RQHZLOOUHVXOW LQDJUHDWHUGHJUHHRIRSHQQHVVIRUDOOPHPEHUVWDWHVZKLFKZLOOEHDLGHGE\DFRP-PRQFXUUHQF\7KLVYLHZKRZHYHUSUREDEO\DWWULEXWHVWRRPXFKZHLJKWWRH[FKDQJH UDWHYRODWLOLW\DVDEDUULHUWRWUDGHDVRWKHUVWXGLHVVHHPWRVKRZWKDWH[FKDQJHUDWH YRODWLOLW\DQGWKHXQFHUWDLQW\WKDWLWJHQHUDWHVKDVRQO\DYHU\VPDOOHIIHFWRQWKH YROXPHRIWUDGH>5RVHSS±@ )ORDWLQJH[FKDQJHUDWHLQ/DWYLD± ,QWKHHDUO\VWKHSURFHVVRIOHDYLQJE\/DWYLDWKH5XVVLDQUXEOH]RQHWRRNSODFH LQWZRVWDJHV/DWYLDLQWURGXFHGDQHZFXUUHQF\DOUHDG\LQZKLFKZDVDVWHSLQ WKHGLUHFWLRQRIJDLQLQJLQGHSHQGHQFHIURP5XVVLDDQGWKHZKROH6RYLHW8QLRQ_)URP 0D\DWHPSRUDU\FXUUHQF\WKH/DWYLDQUXEOH/95ZDVSXWLQWRFLUFXODWLRQ

 _{/DWYLD UHJDLQHG LQGHSHQGHQFH LQ  DQG LQ WKH ILUVW IRXU PRQWKV RI WKH \HDU  /DWYLD ZDV}

DGYHUVHO\DIIHFWHGE\LQIODWLRQRIWKH5XVVLDQUXEOH,QDGGLWLRQWKHRXWJRLQJFDVKSD\PHQWVVXUSDVVHGWKH

UMCS

 .$7$5=<1$7:$52:6.$

DVDOHJDOWHQGHUSDUDOOHOWRWKHH[LVWLQJUXEOHQRWHV,WZDVGHFODUHGHTXDOLQYDOXHWR WKH5XVVLDQUXEOH7KHQDWLRQDOFXUUHQF\±WKHODWV/9/±ZDVLQWURGXFHGLQ UHSODFLQJWKHUXEOHDWWKHUDWLRRIODWV UXEOHV>ĩXFKRZVNDS@/DWYLD KDVDGRSWHGDVWUDWHJ\RIDGMXVWLQJWKHPRQHWDU\EDVH0_7KHH[FKDQJHUDWHFRXOG IOXFWXDWH IUHHO\ RQ WKH PDUNHW DQG DPRXQW RI PRQH\ LQ FLUFXODWLRQ ZDV UHJXODWHG )RUPDOO\WKHXVHRIIORDWLQJH[FKDQJHUDWHZDVGHFODUHG3 EXWDQDO\VWVGHILQHWKHH[-FKDQJHUDWHV\VWHPGXULQJWKLVSHULRGDVGHIDFWRIL[HG>/DLQHOD6XWHODS@ $IWHUWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIWKHQDWLRQDOFXUUHQF\WKHUHZHUHIUHTXHQWIOXFWXDWLRQV RQWKHIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHPDUNHWEXWVLQFHWKHVHFRQGTXDUWHURIODWVVWDELOL]HG )LJ  7KH VWDELOL]DWLRQ RI WKH H[FKDQJH UDWH KDG D VLJQLILFDQW UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK UHGXFLQJLQIODWLRQ7DE 0.000000 0.200000 0.400000 0.600000 0.800000 1.000000 1.200000 )LJXUH([FKDQJHUDWHRI/DWYLDQQDWLRQDOFXUUHQF\WR(&8LQWKHSHULRG 6RXUFH>(XURVWDW@ ,QWKHLQIODWLRQUDWHZDVDWWKHOHYHOZKLOHLQZDVUHGXFHGWR  DQQXDO DYHUDJH ,Q 'HFHPEHU  LQIODWLRQ UDWH \R\ ZDV RQO\  >ĩXFKRZVNDS@7KLVUHVXOWZDVWKHEHVWRIWKH%DOWLFFRXQWULHVLQ'H-FHPEHULQIODWLRQUDWH\R\ZDVLQ/LWKXDQLDDQGLQ(VWRQLD ,0)H[SHUWVDVVHVVHGWKHPRQHWDU\UHIRUPFDUULHGRXWLQ/DWYLDDVWKHPRVWHIILFLHQW DPRQJDOOWKHFRXQWULHVRIWKH(DVWHUQEORF>%RFKDĔF]\N.XSNDS@ 7DEOH0DLQPDFURHFRQRPLFLQGLFDWRUVLQ/DWYLDLQWKH\HDUV± 0DFURHFRQRPLFLQGLFDWRUV    *URVVGRPHVWLFSURGXFWFRQVWDQWSULFHVSHUFHQWFKDQJH QD   ,QIODWLRQDYHUDJHFRQVXPHUSULFHVSHUFHQWFKDQJH QD   &XUUHQWDFFRXQWEDODQFHSHUFHQWRI*'3    6RXUFH>,0)E@ LQFRPLQJPRQH\WKXVFDXVLQJDYHU\VHULRXVVKRUWDJHRIFDVK6LQFHWKHPRQH\ZDVLVVXHGE\5XVVLDWKH %DQNRI/DWYLDZDVXQDEOHWRLPSURYHWKHFDVKFLUFXODWLRQLQWKHFRXQWU\

3 _{'XH WR OLPLWHG IRUHLJQ H[FKDQJH UHVHUYHV WKH DXWKRULWLHV VXVSHFWHG WKDW WKH\ FRXOG QRW GHIHQG WKH}

DVVXPHGOHYHORIWKHH[FKDQJHUDWH

 7+(52/(2)7+((;&+$1*(5$7(32/,&<,17+(/$79,$1(&2120< 7KHFDVHRI/DWYLDGRHVQRWSURYLGHDUJXPHQWVWKDWWKHXVHRIIORDWLQJH[FKDQJH UDWHV\VWHPFRQWULEXWHVWRUHGXFLQJLQIODWLRQ5HGXFLQJLQIODWLRQZDVQRWUHDFKHGXQGHU IUHHHYROXWLRQRIWKHH[FKDQJHUDWHEXWWKHVWDELOL]DWLRQE\WKHPRQHWDU\DXWKRULWLHV ,QDGGLWLRQDFKDQJHRIH[FKDQJHUDWHUHJLPHZDVPDGHDQGDIL[HGH[FKDQJHUDWH V\VWHP ZDV FKRVHQ ZKLFK LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D ORZHU ULVN RI IRUHLJQ H[FKDQJH IRU GRPHVWLFHQWLWLHVDQGWKHHQWLUHHFRQRPLFV\VWHP

&RQYHQWLRQDOSHJJHGDUUDQJHPHQWLQ/DWYLD±

,Q/DWYLDQODWZDVSHJJHGWRVSHFLDOGUDZLQJULJKWV6'5LQFOXGLQJ86 GROODUWKH*HUPDQPDUNODWHUWKHHXURWKHSRXQGVWHUOLQJDQGWKH-DSDQHVH\HQ DWWKHUDWHRI/DWYLDQODWVIRU6'5>.D]DQG]LQVNDS@,Q-DQX-DU\  WKH ODW ZDV SHJJHG WR WKH HXUR_{ 7KH %DQN RI /DWYLD¶V IRUHLJQ H[FKDQJH} UHVHUYHVEDFNHYHU\ODWVLQFLUFXODWLRQWKHPRQHWDU\EDVHWKHUHIRUHLWLVFDSDEOHRI PDLQWDLQLQJDVWDEOHODWVH[FKDQJHUDWHHYHQLQFDVHRIDQ\H[WHUQDOGLVRUGHUV>%DQN RI/DWYLD@ $IL[HGH[FKDQJHUDWHVWUDWHJ\ZDVFKRVHQEHFDXVH%DQNRI/DWYLDFRQVLGHUHG WKLVVWUDWHJ\DVRQHRIWKHPRVWHIIHFWLYHLQVWUXPHQWVIRUUHGXFLQJLQIODWLRQVWDELOLV-LQJWKHPDFURHFRQRPLFHQYLURQPHQWDQGVWUHQJWKHQLQJWKHSXEOLF¶VFRQILGHQFHLQWKH QDWLRQDOHFRQRPLFSROLF\GXULQJWKHLQLWLDOSKDVHRIWKHHFRQRPLFUHIRUPVLQWUDQVLWLRQ HFRQRPLHV7KHUHIRUH/DWYLDDQGVRPHRI&((FRXQWULHVFKRVHDIL[HGH[FKDQJHUDWH VWUDWHJ\DWWKHLQLWLDOVWDJHRIWKHHFRQRPLFUHIRUPVVHH7DE (QVXULQJSULFHVWDELOLW\LVWKHEHVWZD\WRFRQWULEXWHWRWKHREMHFWLYHRIWKHFHQWUDO EDQN¶V PRQHWDU\ SROLF\ ZKLFK LV WR IDFLOLWDWH IDYRXUDEOH PDFURHFRQRPLF HQYLURQ-PHQWIRUJURZWKRIWKHQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\LQWKHORQJWHUP5_{7KHFRXUVHRIWKHJOREDO} HFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHPRQHWDU\SROLF\FDQEHVWFRQWULEXWHWRWKH HFRQRPLFJURZWKHPSOR\PHQWDQGILQDQFLDOVWDELOLW\E\HQVXULQJORZLQIODWLRQUDWH %\PDLQWDLQLQJSULFHVWDELOLW\WKHFHQWUDOEDQNFUHDWHVDVWDEOHDQGSUHGLFWDEOHEXVL-QHVVHQYLURQPHQW>*HUGHVPHLHUS@)RUWKLVUHDVRQ%DQNRI/DWYLDDQGWKH PDMRULW\RIVRYHUHLJQFHQWUDOEDQNVDFURVVWKHZRUOGKDYHGHFODUHGPDLQWHQDQFHRI DORZDQGVWDEOHORQJWHUPLQIODWLRQUDWHDVWKHLUSULQFLSDOJRDO  _{/DWYLDEHFDPHDIXOOPHPEHURIWKH(8RQ0D\WRJHWKHUZLWKQLQHRWKHU(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV} 5 _{0RUHDERXWWKHDUJXPHQWVRI/DWYLDQPRQHWDU\DXWKRULWLHVWRMXVWLI\DSROLF\RIIL[HGH[FKDQJHUDWHV} LVSUHVHQWHGLQ>3U]\E\OVND.DSXĞFLĔVNDS@

UMCS

 .$7$5=<1$7:$52:6.$ 7DEOH&((¶VH[FKDQJHUDWHUHJLPHV &RXQWU\([FKDQJH UDWHUHJLPH 0R QH WD U\  XQ LR Q &X UU HQ F\  ER DU G DU -UDQ JHP HQ W &R QY HQ WL RQ -DO S HJ JH G DU UDQ JH P HQ W +R UL ]R QW DO  ba nd s &U DZ OL QJ  SH J &U DZ OL QJ  ba nd 0D QD JH G IO RD WL QJ ,Q GH SH Q-GH QW O\  IO RD WL QJ %XOJDULD    &]HFK5HSXEOLF     Estonia   +XQJDU\      /DWYLD    /LWKXDQLD   Poland      5RPDQLD     6ORYDN5HSXEOLF      6ORYHQLD     6RXUFH$XWKRU¶VFRPSLODWLRQEDVHGRQ>,0)DSS±@DQG>7\PRF]NRS@ 7KHLQWURGXFWLRQRIWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOSHJJHGDUUDQJHPHQWKDVVWDELOL]HGH[FKDQJH UDWH RI WKH /DWYLDQ FXUUHQF\ ZKLFK FRQWULEXWHG WR D VLJQLILFDQW UHGXFWLRQ LQ SULFH LQFUHDVHV7KHDSSUHFLDWLRQRIODWV)LJZDVFDXVHGE\WKHLQIORZRIIRUHLJQFDSLWDO LQWKHFRQGLWLRQVRIIUHHFDSLWDOPRYHPHQWXQOLPLWHGFRQYHUWLELOLW\RIWKHQDWLRQDOFXU-UHQF\IL[H[FKDQJHUDWHV\VWHPDQGHIIHFWLYHO\LPSOHPHQWHGWKHVWDELOL]DWLRQSURJUDP

 7+(52/(2)7+((;&+$1*(5$7(32/,&<,17+(/$79,$1(&2120< 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 1994M0 1 1994M0 8 1995M0 3 1995M1 0 1996M0 5 1996M1 2 1997M0 7 1998M0 2 1998M0 9 1999M0 4 1999M1 1 2000M0 6 2001M0 1 2001M0 8 2002M0 3 2002M1 0 2003M0 5 2003M1 2 2004M0 7 2005M0 2 2005M0 9 2006M0 4 2006M1 1 2007M0 6 2008M0 1 2008M0 8 2009M0 3 2009M1 0 2010M0 5 2010M1 2 2011M0 7 2012M0 2 2012M0 9 2013M0 4 )LJXUH5HDO(IIHFWLYH([FKDQJH5DWHRIODWGHIODWRUFRQVXPHUSULFHLQGLFHV± WUDGLQJSDUWQHUV±(XUR$UHD,QGH[ LQWKHSHULRG-DQXDU\±-XQH 6RXUFH>(XURVWDW@ 6LQFHWKHVHFRQGKDOIRIWKHUHZDVDSHULRGRIGLVLQIODWLRQ,Q'HFHPEHU WKHLQIODWLRQUDWHZDV\R\DQGWRWKHHQGRILQIODWLRQIHOOWR >(XURVWDW@,QWKHILUVW\HDUVRIWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ/DWYLDZDVWKHOHDGHUDPRQJWKH %DOWLFFRXQWULHVLQWHUPVRIHIIHFWLYHQHVVLQWKHILJKWDJDLQVWLQIODWLRQ 6LQFHWKHDYHUDJHSULFHVLQFUHDVHLQWKH&((FRXQWULHVZDVKLJKHUWKDQ LQ/DWYLD)LJ7KLVGLIIHUHQFHLVSDUWLFXODUO\LQFUHDVHGLQGXHWRWKHYHU\ KLJK LQIODWLRQ LQ %XOJDULD ZKLFK ZDV  DYHUDJH LQIODWLRQ LQ &(( ZLWKRXW %XOJDULDZDV7KHUHDVRQIRUWKLVVLWXDWLRQZDVWKHFXUUHQF\FULVLVLQ%XOJDULD ±LQIODWLRQKDVLQFUHDVHGGXHWRWKHGHSUHFLDWLRQRIWKH%XOJDULDQOHY%*1ZKLFK ORVWYDOXHRILQWKHSHULRG±>ĩXFKRZVNDS@ -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 CEE Latvia )LJXUH,QIODWLRQLQ/DWYLDDQGLQ&HQWUDODQG(DVWHUQ(XURSH _{LQWKHSHULRG±} DYHUDJHFRQVXPHUSULFHVDQQXDOSHUFHQWFKDQJH _{%XOJDULD&]HFK5HSXEOLFVLQFH(VWRQLDVLQFH+XQJDU\/DWYLD/LWKXDQLDVLQFH3RODQG5RPDQLD} 6ORYDN5HSXEOLFVLQFH6ORYHQLD 6RXUFH$XWKRU¶VFDOFXODWLRQEDVHGRQ>,0)E@ (FRQRPLFJURZWKUHPDLQHGDWDVLPLODUOHYHODVLQWKHRWKHU%DOWLFFRXQWULHVDQG &HQWUDODQG(DVWHUQ(XURSH)LJ8QWLOHFRQRPLFJURZWKLQ/DWYLDZDVORZHU

UMCS

 .$7$5=<1$7:$52:6.$ WKDQWKHDYHUDJHLQ&((EXWVLQFHUHPDLQHGDWDKLJKHUOHYHO'LVLQIODWLRQDU\ WUHQGLQ/DWYLDHQKDQFHGE\ORZIRRGSULFHVUHPDLQHGVWURQJGHVSLWHWKHHFRQRPLF JURZWKUDWHLQWKHSHULRG±,QLQIODWLRQZDVUHGXFHGWR\R\ -20 -10 0 10 20 CEE Latvia )LJXUH*URVVGRPHVWLFSURGXFWLQ/DWYLDDQGLQ&HQWUDODQG(DVWHUQ(XURSH _{LQWKHSHULRG±} FRQVWDQWSULFHVDQQXDOSHUFHQWFKDQJH _{%XOJDULD&]HFK5HSXEOLFVLQFH(VWRQLDVLQFH+XQJDU\/DWYLD/LWKXDQLDVLQFH3RODQG5RPDQLD} 6ORYDN5HSXEOLFVLQFH6ORYHQLD 6RXUFH$XWKRU¶VFDOFXODWLRQEDVHGRQ>,0)E@

'HVSLWH UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH UDWH RI LQIODWLRQ LQ /DWYLD LWV OHYHO ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHUWKDQLQWKHPDMRU:HVWHUQWUDGLQJSDUWQHUV7KLVUHVXOWHGLQDSSUHFLDWLRQRI ODWV7KLVWUHQGZDVFRQWLQXLQJXQWLOWKHHQGRIZKLFKKDGDQLPSDFWRQWKH GHWHULRUDWLRQRIWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIWKH/DWYLDQHFRQRP\DQGDGH-FOLQHLQWKHSURILWDELOLW\RIH[SRUW,QWKHYROXPHRI/DWYLDQH[SRUWGHFUHDVHG VLJQLILFDQWO\DGURSRI\R\ZKHQ/LWKXDQLD¶VH[SRUWVIHOOE\DQG(VWRQLD¶V H[SRUWIHOOE\)LJ -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 CEE Latvia )LJXUH9ROXPHRIH[SRUWVRIJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVLQ/DWYLDDQGLQ&HQWUDODQG(DVWHUQ(XURSH LQWKHSHULRG±DQQXDOSHUFHQWDJHFKDQJH _{%XOJDULD&]HFK5HSXEOLFVLQFH(VWRQLDVLQFH+XQJDU\/DWYLD/LWKXDQLDVLQFH3RODQG5RPDQLD} 6ORYDN5HSXEOLFVLQFH6ORYHQLD 6RXUFH$XWKRU¶VFDOFXODWLRQEDVHGRQ>,0)E@

UMCS

 7+(52/(2)7+((;&+$1*(5$7(32/,&<,17+(/$79,$1(&2120<

6LQFH  WKHUH ZDV WKH FXUUHQW DFFRXQW GHILFLW ZKLFK LQFUHDVHG GXULQJ WKH SHULRG±)LJZKLFKZDVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDGHFUHDVHLQH[SRUWVWR5XV-VLDLQUHVSRQVHWRWKH5XVVLDQFULVLV,QWKHGHILFLWGHFUHDVHGWRRI*'3 EXWLQWKHIROORZLQJ\HDUVJUHZLQH[FHHGHGRI*'3DQGLQ± H[FHHGHGRI*'3,Q±WKHUHZDVDVXUSOXVEXWLQVXEVHTXHQW\HDUV WKHGHILFLWUHDSSHDUHG -30 -20 -10 0 10

20 Current account balance

)LJXUH&XUUHQWDFFRXQWEDODQFHLQ/DWYLDDQGLQWKHSHULRG±SHUFHQWRI*'3 6RXUFH>,0)E@ %HFDXVHRIWKHVWULFWUXOHVRIH[FKDQJHUDWHSROLF\DQGDFRPPLWPHQWWRVWDELOL]H WKHH[FKDQJHUDWHWKHPRQHWDU\DXWKRULWLHVRI/DWYLDFRXOGQRWGHYDOXDWHWKHLUFXU-UHQF\ZKLFKZRXOGEHDQLPSXOVHWRLPSURYHWKHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIWKHHFRQRP\ 0 5 10 15 20 25 CEE Latvia )LJXUH8QHPSOR\PHQWUDWHLQ/DWYLDDQGLQ&HQWUDODQG(DVWHUQ(XURSH _{LQWKHSHULRG±} SHUFHQWRIWRWDOODERUIRUFH _{%XOJDULD&]HFK5HSXEOLFVLQFH(VWRQLD+XQJDU\/DWYLD/LWKXDQLDVLQFH3RODQG5RPDQLD6ORYDN} 5HSXEOLF6ORYHQLD 6RXUFH$XWKRU¶VFDOFXODWLRQEDVHGRQ>,0)E@ 'HVSLWHWKH5XVVLDQFULVLVDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHILUVWGHFDGHRIWKHWZHQW\ILUVW FHQWXU\HFRQRPLFSHUIRUPDQFHRI/DWYLDZDVJRRG,QIODWLRQKDVVWDELOL]HGDWDORZ OHYHOWKH*'3JURZWKZDVKLJKXQHPSOR\PHQWFRQWLQXHGWRGHFOLQH)LJH[SRUWV JUHZDQGIRUHLJQFDSLWDOIORZHGWR/DWYLD,QWKH/DWYLDQ*'3JUHZE\

UMCS

 .$7$5=<1$7:$52:6.$

ZKLFKZDVWKHIDVWHVWJURZLQJHFRQRP\DPRQJWKHFRXQWULHVRIWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ >ĩXFKRZVNDS@

$FFHVVLRQWRWKH(8LPSOLHGSUHSDUDWLRQIRUWKHSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQWKH(FRQRPLF DQG 0RQHWDU\ 8QLRQ (08 DQG LQWURGXFWLRQ RI WKH HXUR 2QH RI WKH FULWHULD IRU MRLQLQJWKH(08LPSOLHVSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQWKH([FKDQJH5DWH0HFKDQLVP,,IRUWZR \HDUV/DWYLDMRLQHG(50,,RQ0D\(50,,PHDQVWKDWIRUDWOHDVWWZR \HDUV SULRU WR WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI WKH HXUR WKH ODWV KDG WR EH SHJJHG WR WKH HXUR ZLWKWKHIOXFWXDWLRQPDUJLQVRIWKHODWVH[FKDQJHUDWHDJDLQVWWKHHXURQRWH[FHHG-LQJ “ DJDLQVW WKH ODWVHXUR SHJ UDWH 7KH %DQN RI /DWYLD FRPPLWWHG WR HQVXUH QDUURZHUIOXFWXDWLRQPDUJLQVDJDLQVWWKHHXURWKDQWKHSUHVFULEHGPD[LPXP“ WKXVPDLQWDLQLQJKLJKHUVWDELOLW\RIWKHODWVDJDLQVWWKHHXUR>%DQNRI/DWYLD@

([FKDQJH UDWH ZDV VHW DW  HXUR   ODWV 7KLV FRXUVH ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG DW WKH WLPH RI WKH DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI WKH HXUR UHODWLYH WR RWKHU FXUUHQFLHV ZKLFK ZDV DSRVLWLYHVWLPXOXVIRUWKH/DWYLDQH[SRUWHUVRQWKHRQHKDQGEXWRQWKHRWKHUKDQG FDXVHGDLQFUHDVHLQWKHSULFHVRIJRRGVLPSRUWHGIURPWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ>%DQN RI/DWYLD@ ,QWKHVHFRQG\HDURISDUWLFLSDWLRQLQ(50,,/DWYLDIDLOHGWRPHHWRQO\RQHRI WKHFULWHULDIRUMRLQLQJWKH(08±SULFHVWDELOLW\FULWHULRQ6_{,QIODWLRQLQ±} ZDVDWWKHOHYHORIEXWLQLQFUHDVHGWRRYHUDQGLQZDVRYHU $VLPLODUWUHQGRFFXUUHGLQRWKHUFRXQWULHVLQWKHUHJLRQ$VLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHLQ LQIODWLRQDIWHUWKHDFFHVVLRQWRWKH(8ZDVGULYHQE\UDSLG*'3JURZWK7_DQGZDV DVLJQRIRYHUKHDWLQJDQGEXVLQHVVERRP>(&%S@ $IWHUDFFHVVLRQWRWKH(8WKHODFNRIH[FKDQJHUDWHULVNOHGWRDQLQFUHDVHLQOHQG-LQJLQHXURLQWKHJURZWKUDWHRIORDQVZDVDWWKHOHYHORI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{)URP$SULOWR0DUFK/DWYLDUHFRUGHGDPRQWKDYHUDJHUDWHRI+,&3LQIODWLRQRI} ZKLFKZDVFRQVLGHUDEO\DERYHWKHUHIHUHQFHYDOXHRIVWLSXODWHGE\WKH7UHDW\ 7 _{$GGLWLRQDOUHDVRQVIRUWKHJURZWKRILQIODWLRQDQLQFUHDVHLQGRPHVWLFGHPDQGKLJKZDJHJURZWK} LQFUHDVHVLQLQGLUHFWWD[HVDQGDGPLQLVWHUHGSULFHV

UMCS

 7+(52/(2)7+((;&+$1*(5$7(32/,&<,17+(/$79,$1(&2120< WKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQWKH%DQNRI/DWYLDORVWRQGHIHQVHWKHODWVH[FKDQJHUDWH DERXWRILWVIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHUHVHUYHVLQWKHILUVWKDOIRI>1%3S @7KHVLWXDWLRQVWDELOL]HGDIWHUWKHIXOILOOPHQWRIWKHFRQGLWLRQVIRUREWDLQLQJWKH DLGIURP(8DQG,0)UHGXFWLRQRIEXGJHWH[SHQGLWXUHVE\DQGUHFHLYLQJWKH QH[WFUHGLWWUDQFKH/DWYLDPDQDJHGWRDYRLGWKHGHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHODWVEXWLWZDV QHFHVVDU\WRFDUU\RXWWKHLQWHUQDOGHYDOXDWLRQLHWKHUHGXFWLRQRIODERUFRVWVZKLFK LPSURYHGWKHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIWKHHFRQRP\>:HLVEURW5D\S@

/DWYLD ZDV WKH KDUGHVW RI DOO &(( FRXQWULHV DIIHFWHG E\ WKH JOREDO ILQDQFLDO FULVLV,Q*'3IHOOE\LQDQGLQE\DERXWLQWKH VDPHSHULRGLQ/LWKXDQLDLQ(VWRQLDDQG ,QWKHIROORZLQJ\HDUV/DWYLD¶V*'3JUHZE\SHU\HDUDQG _ 7KHFULVLVFRXOGDOVRDIIHFWWKHGHFLVLRQWRLQWURGXFHWKHHXURLQ(8FRXQWULHV WKDWUHPDLQRXWVLGHRIWKH(08>0XFKD/HV]NR.ąNROSS±@(FRQRPLF RSHQQHVVJLYHVDGYDQWDJHVLQWHUPVRIVWURQJJURZWKEXWDOVRFDXVHVDJUHDWHUULVNRI H[WHUQDOVKRFNVLQWLPHVRIFULVHV6PDOODQGQDUURZO\VSHFLDOL]HGHFRQRPLHVDUHPRVW H[SRVHGWRVKRFNV:KHQVSHFXODWLYHDWWDFNVRQFXUUHQFLHVRIHPHUJLQJHFRQRPLHV ZLOODOVREHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWWKHQLWEHFRPHVUHDVRQDEOHWRFRQVLGHUWKHDGRSWLRQ RIDFRPPRQFXUUHQF\E\WKHQHZPHPEHUVWDWHV>0XFKD/HV]NR@ /DWYLDIXOILOOHGWKHFULWHULDDQGMRLQHGWKH(XUR]RQHRQ-DQXDU\>(XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQSS±@7KH/DWYLDQHFRQRP\KDVEHHQUHFNRQHGDVRQHRIWKH IDVWHVWJURZLQJHFRQRPLHVLQWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ5DWLQJDJHQFLHVUDWHGWKH/DWYLDQ HFRQRP\XSZLWKWKH/DWYLDQJRYHUQPHQWSUHGLFWLQJWKDWLWVHFRQRP\ZRXOGJRXS WRDQµ$FDWHJRU\¶RQFHLWDGRSWHGWKHHXUR,WLVQRWLFHGKRZHYHUWKDWWKHUHZDV OLWWOH LQWHUHVW LQ WKH ³(XUR VWDUWHU NLWV´ FRQWUDU\ WR WKH TXHXHV LQ (VWRQLD LQ  3RVVLEOHUHDVRQVIRUWKDWQDPHGDUHSULFHVWKDWKDYHJRQHXSLQQHLJKERULQJ(VWRQLD D(XUR]RQHPHPEHUVLQFHDQGWKHIHHOLQJRIORVLQJLQGHSHQGHQFH

&RQFOXVLRQ

7R VXPPDUL]H WKH HFRQRPLF VWUXFWXUH RI VPDOO VWDWHV H[SODLQV ZK\ FKRRVLQJ D IOH[LEOH H[FKDQJH UDWH KDV PDMRU GLVDGYDQWDJHV QHHG IRU D FRVWO\ FHQWUDO EDQN OLPLWHGJDLQVIURPH[FKDQJHUDWHIOH[LELOLW\OLPLWHGLQGHSHQGHQWPRQHWDU\SROLF\ KLJKH[FKDQJHUDWHYRODWLOLW\2QWKHEDVLVRIWKHDQDO\VLVLWFDQEHFRQFOXGHGWKDW D IL[HG H[FKDQJH UDWH SROLF\ FDQ EH OHVV FRVWO\ WKDQ IORDWLQJ IRU VPDOO FRXQWULHV ZLWKDQRSHQHFRQRP\ZKHUHIRUHLJQWUDGHSOD\VDYHU\LPSRUWDQWUROH$VPDOOHU HFRQRP\LVGHSHQGHQWRQFKDQJHVLQWKHJOREDOILQDQFLDODQGFRPPRGLW\PDUNHWV DQGLWVFKDQFHVWRLQIOXHQFHWKHPDUHOLPLWHG

 _{(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ¶VIRUHFDVW>(XURVWDW@}

 .$7$5=<1$7:$52:6.$

7KH FDVH RI /DWYLD LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH V\VWHP RI IL[HG H[FKDQJH UDWHV DOVR FDQ EHFRPHULVN\IRUWKHHFRQRP\$OWKRXJKHIIHFWLYHSURFHVVRIUHGXFLQJLQIODWLRQLQ ±WKHORQJWHUPVWDELOL]DWLRQRISULFHVLQWKLVFRXQWU\ZDVQRWSRVVLEOHXQGHU FRQGLWLRQVRIWRWDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIFDSLWDOPRYHPHQWVDQGWKHOLPLWHGDXWRQRP\RI PRQHWDU\SROLF\/DWYLDQHFRQRP\IHOOLQWRWKHIL[HGH[FKDQJHUDWHWUDS$EVHQFHRI H[FKDQJHUDWHULVNFDXVHGSUREOHPVZLWKH[FHVVLYHLQIORZRIIRUHLJQFDSLWDOFUHGLW JURZWKDQGWKHDSSUHFLDWLRQRIWKHFXUUHQF\7KHSHULRGRIEXVLQHVVSURVSHULW\DIWHU WKHDFFHVVLRQWRWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\KLJKLQIODWLRQZKLFKGHFUHDVHG RQO\GXULQJWKHUHFHVVLRQ

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

 %DQN RI /DWYLD  ([FKDQJH 5DWH 3ROLF\ KWWSZZZEDQNOYHQPRQHWDU\SROLF\H[FKDQJH-UDWHSROLF\

 %RFKDĔF]\N.XSND'àRWZD>LQ@66ZDGĨEDHG6\VWHP\JRVSRGDUF]HNUDMyZE\áHJR

ZSRR.DWRZLFH

 %UHHGRQ ) 3pWXUVVRQ 7* 5RVH $.  ([FKDQJH 5DWH 3ROLF\ LQ 6PDOO 5LFK (FRQRPLHV ³:RUNLQJ3DSHU6HULHV´1XPEHU$XJXVW4XHHQ0DU\8QLYHUVLW\RI/RQGRQ6FKRRO RI(FRQRPLFVDQG)LQDQFH$YDLODEOHDW6651KWWSVVUQFRPDEVWUDFW 

 &DOYR*5HLQKDUW&)HDURI)ORDWLQJ³4XDUWHUO\-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLFV´YRO  (XURSHDQ&HQWUDO%DQN&RQYHUJHQFH5HSRUW0D\

 (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ&RQYHUJHQFH5HSRUWRQ/DWYLD³(XURSHDQ(FRQRP\´  (XURVWDW  2QOLQH VWDWLVWLFDO GDWDEDVH KWWSHSSHXURVWDWHFHXURSDHXSRUWDOSDJHSRUWDO

VWDWLVWLFV  )UDQNHO-$5RVH$.7KHHQGRJHQHLW\RIWKHRSWLPXPFXUUHQF\DUHDFULWHULRQ³(FRQRPLF -RXUQDO´YRO  *HUGHVPHLHU'3ULFHVWDELOLW\:K\LVLWLPSRUWDQWIRU\RX"(XURSHDQ&HQWUDO%DQN-D-QXDU\  ,PDP3([FKDQJH5DWH&KRLFHVRI0LFURVWDWHV³,0):RUNLQJ3DSHU´:3  ,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\)XQGD$QQXDO5HSRUW$SSHQGL[,,)LQDQFLDORSHUDWLRQVDQG WUDQVDFWLRQVKWWSZZZLPIRUJH[WHUQDOSXEVIWDUHQJSGIDSGI

 ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 0RQHWDU\ )XQG E :RUOG (FRQRPLF 2XWORRN 'DWDEDVH 2FWREHU  KWWS ZZZLPIRUJH[WHUQDOSXEVIWZHRZHRGDWDLQGH[DVS[



.D]DQG]LQVND00DFURHFRQRPLFSROLF\UHJLPHVLQHPHUJLQJPDUNHWFDQGLGDWHVIRUDFXU-UHQF\XQLRQWKHFDVHRI/DWYLD³:RUNLQJ3DSHU´1R,QVWLWXWHIRU,QWHUQDWLRQDO3ROLWLFDO

(FRQRP\%HUOLQ

 7+(52/(2)7+((;&+$1*(5$7(32/,&<,17+(/$79,$1(&2120<  /DLQHOD66XWHOD37KH%DOWLF(FRQRPLHVLQ7UDQVLWLRQ%DQNRI)LQODQG  /DQH37KHQHZRSHQHFRQRP\PDFURHFRQRPLFVDVXUYH\³-RXUQDORI,QWHUQDWLRQDO(FR-QRPLFV´1R  0F.LQQRQ5,2SWLPXPFXUUHQF\DUHDV³$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ´YRO

 0XFKD/HV]NR %  .U\]\V ILQDQVRZRJRVSRGDUF]\ D SU]\VSLHV]HQLH LQWHJUDFML ZDOXWRZHM ([SHUWRSLQLRQSUHSDUHGIRUWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ5HSUHVHQWDWLRQLQ3RODQG

 0XFKD/HV]NR % .ąNRO 0  :LOO WKH ILQDQFLDOHFRQRPLF FULVLV RI ± DFFHOHUDWH

PRQHWDU\LQWHJUDWLRQLQWKH(8">LQ@/6RSURQL$6DQWDJRVWLQR(0ROQDUHG(XURSHDQG LWVHFRQRPLFIURQWLHU8QLYHUVLW\RI2UDGHD8QLYHUVLW\RI'HEUHFHQ(XUROLPHVYRO

 1%3  $QDOL]D V\WXDFML JRVSRGDUF]HM Z NUDMDFK (XURS\ ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHM ,QVW\WXW (NRQRPLF]Q\1%3PDM  3HQWHFRVW(-([FKDQJH5DWH3ROLF\LQWKH7UDQVLWLRQWR$FFHVVLRQ$5HYLHZRIWKH2SWLRQV ³*RVSRGDUNDLVSRáHF]HĔVWZR´àyGĨ  3U]\E\OVND.DSXĞFLĔVND :  3ROLW\ND SLHQLĊĪQD QRZ\FK SDĔVWZ F]áRQNRZVNLFK 8QLL (X-URSHMVNLHM2GWUDQVIRUPDFMLSU]H]LQIODFMĊGRLQWHJUDFML:\GDZQLFWZR:ROWHU.OXZHU3ROVND  5RVH$.2QHPDUNHWRQHPRQH\WKHHIIHFWVRIFRPPRQFXUUHQFLHVRQWUDGH³(FRQRPLF 3ROLF\´YRO  6FKQDEO*([FKDQJHUDWHYRODWLOLW\DQGJURZWKLQVPDOORSHQHFRQRPLHVDWWKH(08SH-ULSKHU\³:RUNLQJ3DSHU6HULHV´1R-XO\(&%

 7\PRF]NR ,'  $QDOL]D SRUyZQDZF]D V\VWHPyZ NXUVX ZDOXWRZHJR Ä0DWHULDá\ L 6WXGLD´ =HV]\WQU1%3:DUV]DZD  :HLVEURW05D\5/DWYLD¶V5HFHVVLRQ7KHFRVWRI$GMXVWPHQW:LWK$Q³,QWHUQDO'HYDOX-DWLRQ´&(35)HEUXDU\  :HLVEURW05D\5/DWYLD¶V,QWHUQDO'HYDOXDWLRQ$6XFFHVV6WRU\"&(35'HFHPEHU  ĩXFKRZVND'3ROLW\NDNXUVXZDOXWRZHJRDLQIODFMDZNUDMDFK(XURS\ĝURGNRZR:VFKRGQLHM &H'H:X:DUV]DZD 7KHUROHRIWKHH[FKDQJHUDWHSROLF\LQWKH/DWYLDQHFRQRP\ 7KHDLPRIWKHSDSHULVWRDVVHVV/DWYLD¶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

 .$7$5=<1$7:$52:6.$

5RODSROLW\NLZDOXWRZHMZJRVSRGDUFHàRWZ\

&HOHP RSUDFRZDQLD MHVW RFHQD SROLW\NL ZDOXWRZHM àRWZ\ L MHM ZSá\ZX QD VWDELOQRĞü FHQ RUD] Z]URVWJRVSRGDUF]\:RSUDFRZDQLX]RVWDáDSU]HGVWDZLRQDURODSROLW\NLZDOXWRZHMZPDáHMRWZDUWHM JRVSRGDUFHNWyUHMSU]\NáDGVWDQRZLàRWZD:VND]DQRUyZQLHĪHIHNW\VWRVRZDQLDUyĪQ\FKUHĪLPyZ NXUVRZ\FKZàRWZLH :SRF]ąWNRZ\PRNUHVLHWUDQVIRUPDFMLàRWZD]SRZRGXEUDNXZ\VWDUF]DMąF\FKUH]HUZGHZL]R-Z\FKSU]\MĊáDV\VWHPNXUVXSá\QQHJR-DNSRND]DáDDQDOL]DHPSLU\F]QDZRNUHVLHRERZLą]\ZDQLD RILFMDOQHJRNXUVXSá\QQHJRQDVWąSLáRRJUDQLF]HQLHWHPSDLQIODFMLDOHZZDUXQNDFKVWDELOL]DFMLQRPL-QDOQHJRNXUVXZDOXWRZHJRRVLąJQLĊWHMG]LĊNLLQWHUZHQFMRPEDQNXFHQWUDOQHJRQDU\QNXZDOXWRZ\P : FHOX SU]\VSLHV]HQLD SURFHVX VWDELOL]DFML JRVSRGDUNL RUD] RVLąJQLĊFLD ZLĊNV]HJR ]DXIDQLD U\QNyZ ILQDQVRZ\FKàRWZDSU]\MĊáDV\VWHPNXUVXVWDáHJRFRXPRĪOLZLáRLPSRUWZLDU\JRGQRĞFL]HZQĊWU]QHM :\QLNLJRVSRGDUF]HZV]F]HJyOQRĞFLZ]DNUHVLHZDONL]LQIODFMąRVLąJQLĊWHQDàRWZLHZNROHMQ\FK ODWDFKSR]PLDQLHV\VWHPXNXUVRZHJRSR]ZDODMąWZLHUG]LüĪHE\áDWRGHF\]MDVáXV]QD$QDOL]DHPSL-U\F]QDSRWZLHUG]LáDĪHZSRF]ąWNRZ\PRNUHVLHVWRVRZDQLDV\VWHPXNXUVXVWDáHJRXGDáRVLĊ]DMHJR SRPRFą SURZDG]Lü VNXWHF]Qą ZDONĊ ] LQIODFMą -HGQDN Z SyĨQLHMV]\P RNUHVLH Z ZDUXQNDFK FRUD] ZLĊNV]HJR RWZDUFLD àRWZD GRĞZLDGF]\áD SUREOHPX Z]PRĪRQHJR QDSá\ZX NDSLWDáX ]DJUDQLF]QHJR L Z NRQVHNZHQFML DSUHFMDFML ZDOXW\ FR GRSURZDG]LáR GR SURLQIODF\MQ\FK GHF\]ML GHZDOXDF\MQ\FK 3R]ZDODWRQDVWZLHUG]HQLHĪHZ\NRU]\VWDQLHV\VWHPXNXUVXVWDáHJRMDNRNRWZLF\DQW\LQIODF\MQHMMHVW VNXWHF]QHMHG\QLHZRJUDQLF]RQ\PF]DVLH

UMCS