Delft University of Technology
A multidimensonal Examination of Prefomences of the Future advanced Transport
Systems: The ETT (Evacuated Tube Transport) TRM (Transrapid MAGLEV) System
Janic, Milan
Publication date
2016
Document Version
Accepted author manuscript
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MAGLEV 2016: The 23rd International Conference
Citation (APA)
Janic, M. (2016). A multidimensonal Examination of Prefomences of the Future advanced Transport
Systems: The ETT (Evacuated Tube Transport) TRM (Transrapid MAGLEV) System. In MAGLEV 2016:
The 23rd International Conference: Technological Research and Development (Vol. 1)
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A MULTIDIMENSIONAL EXAIVl I NATION if
PERFORMANCES OF THE FUTURE ADVANCED
TRANSPORT SYSTEMS: THE ETT (EVACUATED TUBE
TRANSPORT) TRM (TRANSRAPID MAGLEV) SYSTEM
M i l a n Janic
Keywords
A d v a n c e d t r a n s p o r t systems, ETT (Evacuated Tube T r a n s p o r t ) TRM (Trans Rapid Maglev) s y s t e m , p e r f o r m a n c e s , m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l e x a m i n a t i o n , sustainability
A B S T R A C T
This paper presents a m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l e x a m i n a t i o n of i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l , t e c h n i c a l / t e c h n o l o g i c a l , o p e r a t i o n a l , e c o n o m i c , e n v i r o n m e n t a l , social, and policy p e r f o r m a n c e s o f t h e f u t u r e a d v a n c e d ETT (Evacuated T u b e Transport) TRM (TransRapid Maglev) s y s t e m . These p e r f o r m a n c e s are e x a m i n e d , analytically m o d e l l e d , and t h e n e s t i m a t e d using t h e case of Trans-Atlantic passenger t r a n s p o r t m a r k e t c u r r e n t l y exclusively served by t h e APT (Air Passenger T r a n s p o r t ) system. The aim is t o assess t h e ETT TRM system's c o m p e t i t i v e capabilities c o m p a r e d t o t h o s e o f t h e c u r r e n t and f u t u r e APT system and p o t e n t i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n t o m i t i g a t i n g Impacts o f b o t h systems on t h e society and e n v i r o n m e n t , I.e., sustainability o f t h e t r a n s p o r t sector, u n d e r given conditions.
1. Introduction
The f u t u r e e c o n o m y and society until and b e y o n d t h e y e a r 2050 w i l l very likely be characterized by: I) Continuous growtli but also aging o f t h e w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n expected t o reach 9-10-10^; ii) Growing developing economies c o n t r i b u t i n g t o s t r e n g t h e n i n g t h e " m i d d l e " class and c o n s e q u e n t l y increasing d e m a n d f o r m o b i l i t y in t h e c o u n t r i e s like China, India, Russia and Brazil; and ili) Urbanization i m p l y i n g t h a t by t h e y e a r 2025 a b o u t t w o - t h i r d s o f t h e w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n w i l l live in (also mega-) cities. C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e f u t u r e t r a n s p o r t systems w i l l v e r y likely be exposed t o challenges t o : I) Connect large urban a g g l o m e r a t i o n s and marl<ets t h u s f u r t h e r f o s t e r i n g globalization of e c o n o m i c , t r a d e , a n d o t h e r s o c i a l / p o l i c y relationships; ii) Provide transport services of refined quality at reasonable cost/price regarding t h e very d i f f e r e n t i a t e d passenger needs; iii) Further diminishing impacts on the environment and society; and iv) Contribution to the national and global welfare by f u r t h e r Increasing e m p l o y m e n t a n d e x p a n s i o n , i.e., synergies w i t h t h e n e w t e c h n o l o g i e s f r o m o t h e r f i e l d s / a r e a s .
The f u t u r e advanced ETT (Evacuated Tube T r a n s p o r t ) TRM (TransRapid Magelv) system seems t o be o n e able t o c o n t r i b u t e t o f u l f i l l i n g t h e a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d r e q u i r e m e n t s t h r o u g h c o m p e t i t i o n m a i n l y w i t h t h e long-haul APT (Air Passenger T r a n s p o r t ) s y s t e m . In a d d i t i o n , by t a k i n g o v e r a part of t h e APT d e m a n d , as p r e s u m a b l y e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y f r i e n d l i e r s y s t e m / m o d e , it w o u l d c o n t r i b u t e t o m i t i g a t i n g t h e overall t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r - r e l a t e d negative impacts on t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a n d society, and c o n s e q u e n t l y t o its - sector's m o r e sustainable d e v e l o p m e n t .
In a d d i t i o n t o this i n t r o d u c t o r y , this p a p e r consists of f o u r o t h e r sections. Section 2 describes t h e m a i n c o m p o n e n t s and concept of p e r f o r m a n c e s of an ETT TRM system. Section 3 deals w i t h m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l e x a m i n a t i o n and m o d e l l i n g o f t h e s e p e r f o r m a n c e s . Section 4 presents an a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e p r o p o s e d approach t o t h e given long-haul passenger t r a n s p o r t w h e r e an ETT T R M c o m p e t e s w i t h t h e APT system according t o t h e " w h a t - i f ( h y p o t h e t i c a l ) scenarios. The last s e c t i o n s u m m a r i z e s s o m e conclusions.
2. The Components and Concept of Performances of an ETT TRM System
The concept of ETT TRM d e f i n e d as a very high speed long-haul t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system had been e l a b o r a t e d f o r a long t i m e [ 1 ] . Its main c o m p o n e n t s are v a c u u m e d t u b e s , TRM trains, a n d s u p p o r t i n g facilities and e q u i p m e n t f o r t h e energy supply, m a i n t a i n i n g v a c u u m in t h e t u n n e l s , t r a i n / t r a f f i c c o n t r o l / m a n a g e m e n t systems, and fire p r o t e c t i o n system. They all influence t h e ETT TRM system's I n f r a s t r u c t u r a l , t e c h n i c a l / t e c h n o l o g i c a l , o p e r a t i o n a l , e c o n o m i c , e n v i r o n m e n t a l , social and policy p e r f o r m a n c e s , and vice versa, s h o w n in Fig. 1.
• > Bottom-up >• T o p - d o w n
Figure 1 A simplified s c h e m e o f p e r f o r m a n c e s of an ETT TRM system and
t h e i r possible i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s [1]
As s h o w n by a r r o w s , t h e p a r t i c u l a r p e r f o r m a n c e s may influence each o t h e r t o p - d o w n (heavy lines) and b o t t o m - u p ( d o t t e d lines). In such case:
• Infrastructural and technical/technological performances generally relate t o t h e physical, c o n s t r u c t i v e , and t e c h n i c a l and t e c h n o l o g i c a l features of t h e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e - t u b e s , rolling stock-TRM t r a i n s , and s u p p o r t i n g facilities and e q u i p m e n t ;
® Operational performances relate d e m a n d , capacity, t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p , i.e., q u a l i t y of services, f l e e t size, and t e c h n i c a l p r o d u c t i v i t y ;
• Economic performances are r e p r e s e n t e d by costs, revenues, a n d t h e i r differences ( p r o f i t s / l o s e s ) . In s o m e cases t h e s e can include savings in t h e cost o f passenger t r a v e l t i m e j u s t d u e t o using this instead of some o t h e r t r a n s p o r t system as a l t e r n a t i v e ;
® Environmental and social performances include scale of impacts o n t h e e n v i r o n m e n t and society such as e n e r g y / f u e l c o n s u m p t i o n and related emissions o f 6 H G (Green House Gases), land use, noise, congestion, and t r a f f i c i n c i d e n t s / a c c i d e n t s (I.e., safety). In s o m e cases, congestion could be c o n s i d e r e d as an o p e r a t i o n a l p e r f o r m a n c e i n f l u e n c i n g t h e o v e r a l l q u a l i t y o f service. If m o n e t i z e d , hese impacts r e p r e s e n t e x t e r n a l i t i e s , w h i c h could also be c o n s i d e r e d as e c o n o m i c p e r f o r m a n c e .
9 Policy performances reflect c o m p l i a n c e w i t h t h e f u t u r e m e d i u m - t o l o n g - t e r m t r a n s p o r t policy regulations and specified targets mainly related t o particular ( a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d ) e n v i r o n m e n t a l and social i m p a c t s .
3. A Multidimensional Examination of Performances of an ETT TRM System
3.1. Infrastructural performances
The i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l p e r f o r m a n c e s of an ETT TRM system include t h e characteristics of t u b e s / t u n n e l s , s t a t i o n s / t e r m i n a l s , and c o r r e s p o n d i n g n e t w o r k ( s ) .
3.1.1. Tubes/tunnels and stations/terminals
In cases of spreading b e t w e e n t w o c o n t i n e n t s , t h e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e o f an ETT TRM system w o u l d be designed generally as u n d e r g r o u n d t u n n e l s u n d e r t h e seabed or as t h e u n d e r - w a t e r f l o a t i n g t u b e s a n c h o r e d by steel cables t o t h e seabed. The latter c o n c e p t w o u l d be as: I) t w o t r a n s p o r t a n d one separate s e r v i c e / m a i n t e n a n c e t u b e , t h e latest shared w i t h pipelines f o r oil, w a t e r , gas, electric p o w e r t r a n s m i s s i o n , and c o m m u n i c a t i o n lines, etc.; o r ii) a single t u b e divided vertically i n t o t h e m a i n section w i t h t h e t r a i n lines, t h e m a i n t e n a n c e section above, a n d t h e e m e r g e n c y section b e l o w . Fig. 2 shows a s i m p l i f i e d s c h e m e of t w o - t u b e design using t h e TRM t r a i n s , [1], [2], [ 3 ] .
Figure 2 A s i m p l i f i e d scheme of t h e t w o - t u b e design f o r an u n d e r w a t e r ETT TRM system [1]
The f l o a t i n g t u b e s c o u l d be m a d e o f e i t h e r t h e t h e r m a l c o n d u c t i v e p u r e steel g u a r a n t e e i n g a i r - p r o o f at a r a t h e r m o d e r a t e cost o r of t h e c o m p o s i t e materials including steel and c o n c r e t e layer a t t h e i n n e r and o u t s i d e w a l l of t h e t u b e , respectively [4]. The thickness of t h e t u b e s ' walls w o u l d be s u f f i c i e n t t o sustain t h e w a t e r pressure at a given d e p t h f r o m t h e o u t s i d e and a l m o s t zero pressure f r o m t h e inside (at t h e d e p t h of 3 0 0 m t h e o u t s i d e pressure is a b o u t 3 0 a t m , i.e., t h e pressure increases by l a t m f o r each 10m of d e p t h ( a t m - a t m o s p h e r e ) ) . T h e t u b e s w o u l d be c o m p o s e d of p r e f a b r i c a t e d sections j o i n e d t o g e t h e r in o r d e r t o c o m p o s e an a i r t i g h t t u b e . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , an i n t e r l o c k i n g m e c h a n i s m w o u l d be I n c o r p o r a t e d into t h e sections in o r d e r t o keep t h e m assembled. The v a c u u m - l o c k isolation gates at t h e specified distance w o u l d be c o n s t r u c t e d in o r d e r t o e v a c u a t e air f r o m p a r t i c u l a r sections o f t h e t u b e s m o r e e f f i c i e n t l y and t h u s p r e v e n t t h e s p r e a d i n g of p o t e n t i a l l y large scale air leakages t h r o u g h o u t t h e e n t i r e t u b e s . These gates w o u l d consist of
vertically up and d o w n m o v i n g d o o r s , w h i c h could also f u n c t i o n as part o f t h e f i r e p r o t e c t i o n system. These doors w o u l d be closed d u r i n g t h e initial evacuation of air f r o m t h e t u b e s and in t h e cases of large scale leakages, and o p e n e d o t h e r w i s e [2]. The f l o a t i n g of such tubes at t h e given d e p t h w i t h t h e TRM guideway(s) inside w o u l d d e p e n d as f o l l o w s [ 1 ] : PV^ =M-p„-V = n - L \ R l - R l ^ - s , , . - f - p , r R l \ (1) w h e r e l/Vb is t h e resultant b u o y a n t f o r c e ( t o n ) ; y is t h e v o l u m e of displaced w a t e r by tube(s) (m^); M is t h e mass (weight) of t h e t u b e ( s ) ( t o n , kg); Po is density of sea w a t e r ( t o n / m ' ' ) ; y is t h e v o l u m e o f displaced w a t e r e q u a l t o t h e v o l u m e of tube(s) (m^); Rl, R2 is t h e inside and o u t s i d e radius of t h e t u b e , respectively, (m) {Ri < Rz); a n d L is t h e length of t h e t u b e ( m ) ;
s,v is t h e specific gravity of t u b e ' s m a t e r i a l ( t o n / m ^ ) ;
ƒ Is t h e f a c t o r of increasing t h e t o t a l mass ( w e i g h t ) of t h e t u b e due t o its i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l c o n t e n t (71 = 3.14).
If Wb = 0, t h e tube(s) w i l l f l o a t at t h e surface; If Wt < 0, t h e tube(s) w i l l be pushed u p w a r d s i m p l y i n g t h a t t h e y w o u l d need t o be a n c h o r e d t o t h e ocean f l o o r by a cable system in o r d e r t o stay at t h e given d e p t h ; if Wb> 0, t h e tube(s) w i l l sink t o t h e sea f l o o r [ 1 ] , [2] [ 3 ] , [4].
3.1.2. Network
The t u b e s lying mainly u n d e r t h e sea level w i t h a s h o r t p o r t i o n at t h e surface j u s t near t h e coast and d e d i c a t e d passenger s t a t i o n s / t e r m i n a l s at t h e i r ends w o u l d compose t h e EET T R M system n e t w o r k . These t e r m i n a l s w o u l d be located at t h e coast preferably i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o larger I n t e r m o d a l passenger t e r m i n a l s (i.e., u n d e r t h e " s a m e r o o f ) also a c c o m m o d a t i n g t h e s h o r t and m e d i u m -distance rail- and road-based passenger t r a n s p o r t s y s t e m s / ' f e e d i n g ' n e t w o r k s d r i v i n g passengers b e t w e e n t h e ETT system and t h e i r f i n a l o r i g i n s / d e s t i n a t i o n s . Fig. 3 shows t h e s i m p l i f i e d scheme of an i n t e r c o n t i n e n t a l ETT TRM system w i t h a single l i n e / r o u t e and t h e l i n e s / r o u t e s of its ' f e e d i n g ' n e t w o r k s . In this case, t h e relevant I n f r a s t r u c t u r e p e r f o r m a n c e of end t e r m i n a l s is t h e n u m b e r of tracks t o handle t h e TRM trains, w h i c h can be e s t i m a t e d as f o l l o w s :
= / z r 7 T a , ^ ) - W / , (2)
w h e r e
fErr(d, T) is t h e t r a n s p o r t service f r e q u e n c y on t h e l i n e / r o u t e (d) d u r i n g t i m e (T) ( d e p / T ) ; and tETT/s is t h e t i m e a TRM t r a i n occupies a t r a c k ( m i n , h).
T^^.Tg- Begin and end terminal, respectively, ofthe ETT system (line/route) Local/regional transport network (tram, bus, metro)
National/continental transport network (conventional/HS rail bus) Direction of operation ofthe ETT system's trains
Figure 3 A s i m p l i f i e d s c h e m e of an I n t e r c o n t i n e n t a l ETT T R M s y s t e m / n e t w o r k w i t h a single l i n e / r o u t e
[1]
In Eq. 1, t i m e (tEn/s) includes t h e t i m e f o r passengers' d i s e m b a r k i n g / e m b a r k i n g , cleaning, e n e r g y / f u e l supply, inspection and o t h e r activities f o r m a k i n g ready t h e TRM train(s) next safe t r i p .
3.2. Technical/technological performances
T e c h n i c a l / t e c h n o l o g i c a l p e r f o r m a n c e s o f an ETT TRM system relate t o t h e v a c u u m p u m p s , TRM t r a i n s , and t r a f f i c c o n t r o l / m a n a g e m e n t s y s t e m .
3.2.1. Vacuum pumps
The v a c u u m p u m p s w o u l d be a p p l i e d t o initially evacuate and later m a i n t a i n t h e r e q u i r e d level o f v a c u u m inside t h e t u b e s . In particular, c r e a t i n g an initial v a c u u m consists o f large scale e v a c u a t i o n a n d later o n r e m o v a l o f s m a l l e r molecules near t u b e w a l l s using h e a t i n g t e c h n i q u e s . These w o u l d r e q u i r e p o w e r f u l v a c u u m p u m p s c o n s u m i n g a s u b s t a n t i v e a m o u n t o f energy. H o w w o u l d t h e p u m p s w o r k ? A t t h e initial stage, t h e y w o u l d be o p e r a t i n g u n t i l achieving t h e r e q u i r e d t u b e evacuation l e v e l , t h e n , a u t o m a t i c a l l y s t o p p e d , and t h e v a c u u m - l o c k Isolation gates o p e n e d . In cases o f air leakage in s o m e section(s), t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g gates w o u l d be closed and t h e p u m p s activated again. The p u m p s w o u l d be l o c a t e d a l o n g t h e t u b e ( s ) in t h e r e q u i r e d n u m b e r d e p e n d i n g on t h e v o l u m e s o f air t o be e v a c u a t e d , available t i m e , a n d t h e i r e v a c u a t i o n capacity.
3.2.2. Vehicles and propulsion
The vehicles o f an EET TRM system w o u l d be m o d i f i e d (redesigned) G e r m a n T R M 0 7 trains [ 1 ] , [ 5 ] , [ 6 ] , [7]. The m o d i f i c a t i o n s w o u l d be n e e d e d due t h e v e r y high o p e r a t i n g speed o f a b o u t VETT= 6.4
-8 . 0 - l O ^ k m / h a n d t h e h o r i z o n t a l a c c e l e r a t i o n / d e c e l e r a t i o n rate(s) o f a b o u t o = 1 . 5 - 3 . 0 m / s ^ t o be used t h a n k s t o o p e r a t i n g in v a c u u m t u b e s . These TRM trains w o u l d use electric energy f o r t h e i r l e v i t a t i o n , g u i d a n c e , air c o n d i t i o n i n g , h e a t i n g , l i g h t i n g and p o w e r i n g o t h e r facilities and e q u i p m e n t , a n d LH2 (Liquid H y d r o g e n ) p r o p e l l i n g s o m e kind o f t h e rocket e n g i n e f o r p r o p u l s i o n [ 3 ] , [ 8 ] . In particular, d u e a c c e l e r a t i n g / d e c e l e r a t i n g o f T R M train(s) t o / f r o m t h e v e r y high speed (B.O-lO^km/h), respectively, a s u b s t a n t i v e e n e r g y w o u l d be c o n s u m e d , w h i c h can be e s t i m a t e d as f o l l o w s :
w h e r e
rriETT is t h e mass (weight) of TRM t r a i n (kg, t o n ) ;
VETT is t h e cruising speed of TRM t r a i n ( m / s ; k m / h ) .
The a c c e l e r a t i o n / d e c e l e r a t i o n phase of a t r i p w o u l d r e q u i r e m u c h s t r o n g e r t h a n basic TRM t r a i n s ' engines, w i t h m i n i m u m r e q u i r e d p o w e r / t h r u s t e s t i m a t e d as f o l l o w s :
P/T,„.,,=m^rT-^>t/,r-VETT (3 b)
w h e r e
OEW^' is t h e a c c e l e r a t i o n / d e c e l e r a t i o n rate, respectively, of ETT TRM t r a i n t o / f r o m t h e average cruising speed {VETT) (m/s^).
The o t h e r symbols are analogous t o t h o s e in t h e previous Eqs.
During cruising phase of a t r i p , t h e TRM trains pressurized similarly as m o d e r n c o m m e r c i a l a i r c r a f t (about l a t m ) w o u l d m o v e thanks t o t h e inertial f o r c e gained a f t e r acceleration w i t h o u t a e r o d y n a m i c (due t o v a c u u m ) and rolling (due t o l e v i t a t i o n ) resistance.
Using l o w density LH2 s t o r e d at l o w t e m p e r a t u r e , t h e u l t i m a t e l y larger insulated f u e l - s t o r a g e tanks w o u l d be n e e d e d , w h i c h w o u l d t o g e t h e r w i t h engine(s) v e r y likely increase t h e i r m a s s / w e i g h t . In a d d i t i o n , o p e r a t i n g in t h e v a c u u m tube(s) at t h e very high speeds w o u l d e l i m i n a t e t h e shock w a v e s w h e n breaking t h e sound barrier ( i m p o r t a n t f o r passing trains in a single t u n n e l / t u b e c o n c e p t ) , a n d make negligible air f r i c t i o n and c o n s e q u e n t h e a t i n g of t r a i n s . Nevertheless, heat shields w o u l d be installed at TRM trains as p r o t e c t i o n f r o m f r o m o v e r h e a t i n g caused by u n p r e d i c t a b l e air leakages [4].
3.2.3. Traffic control/management system
The t r a f f i c c o n t r o l / m a n a g e m e n t system at TRM trains w o u l d be fully a u t o m a t e d , i.e., c o n t r o l l e d (guided) very likely analogously t o t h e m o d e r n UAV ( U n m a n n e d Flying Vehicles - designed pilotless a i r c r a f t ) , and m a n a g e d (separated) along t h e l i n e / r o u t e a c c o r d i n g t o t h e TRM o p e r a t i n g principles. This is because t h e drivers s i m p l y w o u l d n o t have t i m e t o react t o u n p r e d i c t e d events d u e t o t r a i n ' s very high o p e r a t i n g speed.
3.4. Operational performances
The o p e r a t i o n a l p e r f o r m a n c e s of an ETT TRM system relate t o d e m a n d , capacity, and q u a l i t y of service, t h e vehicle f l e e t size, and t e c h n i c a l p r o d u c t i v i t y [ 1 ] .
3.4.1. Demand
I) General
The d e m a n d f o r an ETT TRM system o p e r a t i n g in t h e long-haul markets (i.e., at t h e higher level) such as t h o s e b e t w e e n large urban a g g l o m e r a t i o n s located in t h e same or d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s a n d / o r at t h e same a n d / o r d i f f e r e n t c o n t i n e n t s , can be e s t i m a t e d by assuming its c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h t h e APT (Air Passenger T r a n s p o r t ) system using t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l subsonic, super-, a n d / o r hypersonic ( f o r t h c o m i n g ) a i r c r a f t . In t h e s e cases t h e ETT TRM system is assumed t o take o v e r part of t h e APT d e m a n d , collected a n d d i s t r i b u t e d t o / f r o m it by t h e s h o r t - and m e d i u m - h a u l rail and road passenger t r a n s p o r t systems. This prospectively a t t r a c t e d d e m a n d can be e s t i m a t e d by logit m o d e l .
II) Logit m o d e l
The logit m o d e l estimates t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f choice o f a given a m o n g several a l t e r n a t i v e s , in this case ETT TRM and APT system / m o d e as f o l l o w s [ 1 ] :
w h e r e
ÜETjid, T) is dis-utility f u n c t i o n o f t h e ETT system o p e r a t i n g o n t h e l i n e / r o u t e (d) d u r i n g t i m e (T); ÜAPTid, T) is dis-utility f u n c t i o n o f t h e APT system o p e r a t i n g o n t h e l i n e / r o u t e fc/;.
The dis-(utility) f u n c t i o n s UEufd, T) and UAPrfd, T) in Eq. 4a consists of t h e generalized costs o f perceived d o o r - t o - d o o r t r a v e l t i m e and t h e p r i c e / f a r e paid f o r a t r i p by t h e ETT TRM s y s t e m and its APT c o u n t e r p a r t , respectively. The dls-(utility) f u n c t i o n UErrfd, T) In Eq. 4a f o r a given c a t e g o r y o f users/passengers can be e s t i m a t e d as f o l l o w s :
U^rj. (d, T ) = a- r^-,-j.i„ + / ? • t^rriir id) + a- r ^ „ v . + PETT id, T ) = a • 1 / 2
T fErrid,T)
+
/?.
(4b) w h e r e
TiTT/a, TETT/I is t h e t i m e of accessing/leaving t h e s y s t e m , respectively ( m i n , h ) ;
a is t h e u n i t cost o f passenger t i m e d u r i n g assessing, w a i t i n g f o r d e p a r t u r e , and leaving
t h e ETT TRM s y s t e m ( $ U S / m i n / p a s s ) ;
tETT/w(d) is t h e in-vehicle t r a n s i t t i m e o n t h e l i n e / r o u t e (d) (h, m i n )
/3 is t h e u n i t cost of passenger in-vehicle t r a n s i t t i m e ( $ U S / m i n / p a s s ) ;
PEuld, T) is t h e p r i c e / f a r e f o r a t r i p by t h e system on t h e l i n e / r o u t e (d) d u r i n g t i m e (T)
($US/pass).
The o t h e r symbols are analogous t o t h o s e in t h e previous Eqs. The dis-(utility) f u n c t i o n UAPT (d, T)
can be e s t i m a t e d analogously.
Ill) The n u m b e r o f passengers
The n u m b e r o f passengers c h o o s i n g t h e n e w l y i m p l e m e n t e d ETT T R M s y s t e m / m o d e , i.e., t a k e n over f r o m t h e existing APT s y s t e m / m o d e , o n t h e l i n e / r o u t e (d) d u r i n g t i m e (T) can be e s t i m a t e d by Eq. 4 a -b as f o l l o w s [ 1 ] :
Q^^ i d , T ) = plU,^^^ id, Ty\ • Q,^., i d , T ) (4c)
w h e r e
QAPM T) is t h e n u m b e r o f passengers on t h e given l i n e / r o u t e (d) d u r i n g t i m e (T) exclusively carried by t h e APT s y s t e m / m o d e at t h e t i m e o f i m p l e m e n t i n g t h e ETT TRM s y s t e m / m o d e .
E q u a t i o n 4c implies t h a t o n l y t h e passenger d e m a n d t a k e n o v e r by t h e EET T R M f r o m t h e APT system Is c o n s i d e r e d and not t h e ETT T R M system's s e l f - g e n e r a t e d d e m a n d .
3.4.2. Capacity
The service f r e q u e n c y (fcnld, Tj) o f t h e ETT TRM system satisfying t h e e x p e c t e d passenger d e m a n d o n t h e l i n e / r o u t e (d) d u r i n g t i m e (T) can be derived f r o m Eq. 4c as f o l l o w s :
f ( d n = QErr(c/,T) (4d) 'ETT
w h e r e
^.ETT(d, T) is t h e average load f a c t o r o f an ETT TRM t r a i n o p e r a t i n g on t h e l i n e / r o u t e (d) d u r i n g
t i m e (T);
SETfid, T) is t h e seating capacity o f an ETT TRM t r a i n o p e r a t i n g o n t h e l i n e / r o u t e (d) d u r i n g t i m e (T) (seats).
3.4.3. Quality of service
The q u a l i t y o f services o f an ETT T R M system, in a d d i t i o n t o a t t r i b u t e s such as f r e q u e n c y , reliability, and p u n c t u a l i t y , could be particularly i n f l u e n c e d by t h e In-vehicle c o m f o r t d u r i n g a t r i p . This c o m f o r t highly d e p e n d s o n t h e h o r i z o n t a l , v e r t i c a l , an lateral forces a c t i n g o n passengers w h i l e a c c e l e r a t i n g / d e c e l e r a t i n g t h e TRM train(s) t o / f r o m t h e v e r y high speed ( 8 . 0 - l O ^ k m / h ) , respectively. The lateral f o r c e could be m i t i g a t e d t h r o u g h design of t h e ETT t u b e s (preferably as straight as possible in b o t h h o r i z o n t a l and v e r t i c a l plane) and t h e a p p r o p r i a t e a r r a n g e m e n t s o f seats w i t h i n t h e TRM trains. The design w o u l d be r a t h e r c o m p l e x t o achieve In t h e v e r t i c a l plane since, f o r e x a m p l e , t h e l o n g i n t e r c o n t i n e n t a l t u b e s w o u l d have t o align w i t h t h e Earth's c u r v a t u r e ; in t h e h o r i z o n t a l plane t h e s t r a i g h t line s h o r t e s t (Great Circle) distances w o u l d likely be f o l l o w e d . Consequently, t h e o t h e r t w o - h o r i z o n t a l and v e r t i c a l - forces w o u l d r e m a i n . If t h e TRM trains w e r e a c c e l e r a t i n g / d e c e l e r a t i n g at t h e rate of o = 1.5-3.0 m / s ^ t h u s achieving t h e m a x i m u m cruising s p e e d In a b o u t 12.3 - 24.7 m i n , t h e h o r i z o n t a l G-force as a p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e n o m i n a l g r a v i t a t i o n a l f o r c e [g = 9.81m/s^) w o u l d be: 0.152-0.306g - n o t particularly c o m p r o m i s i n g riding c o m f o r t o f passengers.
3.4.4. Fleet size
Given t h e service f r e q u e n c y (fErr(d, Tj) in Eq. 4 d , t h e TRM t r a i n f l e e t size o f a given ETT system can be e s t i m a t e d as f o l l o w s :
N,^,^{d,T) = f r ^ i d , T ) • t , r r , M ) (^^)
w h e r e
tETT/tr(d) is an ETT TRM train's average t u r n a r o u n d t i m e a l o n g t h e l i n e / r o u t e fc/j ( m i n , h).
The t i m e (tEn/trfd)) in Eq. 5a can be e s t i m a t e d as f o l l o w s :
t ETT f Ad) =2 '^^ ETT Is
^'ETT ^ETT
(d)
"ETT
w h e r e
ffTT/5 is t h e average s t o p t i m e o f an ETT TRM t r a i n at t h e e n d t e r m i n a l (h, m i n ) .
The o t h e r s y m b o l s are analogous t o t h o s e In t h e previous Eqs.
3.4.5. Technical productivity
Technical p r o d u c t i v i t y of an ETT TRM system ( s - k m / h ) can be e s t i m a t e d f o r a single and t h e f l e e t of TRM t r a i n s .
i) Single t r a i n / v e h i c l e :
TP, ElTIv id, T ) = s^ j . (d, T ) • Vj^T^ i d ) (6a)
ii) Fleet of t r a i n s / v e h i c l e s :
(6b)
All o t h e r symbols are as in t h e previous Eqs.
3.5. Economic performances
The e c o n o m i c p e r f o r m a n c e s of an EFT TRM system include t h e cost of i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , rolling stock -TRM t r a i n s , a n d s u p p o r t i v e facilities and e q u i p m e n t , d i r e c t revenues f r o m charging passengers, and Indirect revenues as savings in t h e costs of passenger t i m e and e n v i r o n m e n t a l a n d social i m p a c t s (i.e., externalities) t h o u g h c o m p e t i t i o n w/ith o t h e r t r a n s p o r t s y s t e m s / m o d e s , in this case ATP s y s t e m .
3.5.1. Costs
i) I n f r a s t r u c t u r e
The i n f r a s t r u c t u r e costs of an ETT TRM system include expenses f o r building i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and s u p p o r t i n g facilities and e q u i p m e n t . These costs w o u l d include i n v e s t m e n t s , m a i n t e n a n c e and o p e r a t i n g costs. The i n v e s t m e n t s generally include t h e expenses f o r building t u b e s (2+1), TRM t r a i n g u l d e w a y s , and t e r m i n a l s at b o t h ends o f t h e given l i n e / r o u t e , and facilities and e q u i p m e n t such as v a c u u m p u m p s , t h e p o w e r supply s y s t e m , t r a f f i c c o n t r o l s y s t e m , c o m m u n i c a t i o n s , and f i r e p r o t e c t i o n s y s t e m . The m a i n t e n a n c e costs include t h e expenses of regular and capital m a i n t e n a n c e o f i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and s u p p o r t i n g facilities and e q u i p m e n t . The o p e r a t i o n a l costs m a i n l y include t h e expenses of labor and energy f o r m a i n t a i n i n g v a c u u m in t h e t u b e s [ 9 ] .
ii) Rolling s t o c k - T R M trains
The cost of rolling stock w o u l d consist of t h e i n v e s t m e n t s and o p e r a t i o n a l cost. The f o r m e r relate t o a c q u i r i n g t h e TRM t r a i n fleet. The later includes t h e expenses f o r m a i n t e n a n c e , m a t e r i a l , labor, and e n e r g y / f u e l t o o p e r a t e t h e TRM f l e e t u n d e r given c o n d i t i o n s .
3.5.2. Revenues
T h e revenues o f an ETT TRM system can be direct and indirect. The f o r m e r are m a i n l y o b t a i n e d f r o m c h a r g i n g its passengers. The later can be savings in t h e cost of passenger t i m e and t h e cost o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l and social impacts (i.e., externalities) such as energy c o n s u m p t i o n and r e l a t e d emissions of GHG, noise, c o n g e s t i o n , a n d t r a f f i c i n c i d e n t s / a c c i d e n t s . These later savings occur by r e d u c i n g t h e scale of o p e r a t i o n s of c o m p e t i n g APT s y s t e m / m o d e d u e t o losing passenger d e m a n d t a k e n o v e r by t h e ETT TRM system.
3.6. Environmental and social performances
T h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l and social p e r f o r m a n c e s of an EFT TRM system relate t o its Impacts o n t h e e n v i r o n m e n t ( e n e r g y / f u e l c o n s u m p t i o n a n d related emissions of GHG (Green House Gases) and land u s e / t a k e ) a n d society (noise, c o n g e s t i o n , safety, i.e., t r a f f i c incidents and accidents), all e s t i m a t e d
according t o t h e scenarios o f c o m p e t i n g w i t h o t h e r t r a n s p o r t m o d e s . The costs of t h e s e impacts (i.e., externalities) can be c o n s i d e r e d in t h e scope of these instead of, as m e n t i o n e d a b o v e , e c o n o m i c p e r f o r m a n c e s .
3.6.1. Energy/fuel consumption and emissions of GHG (Green House Gases)
The e n e r g y / f u e l c o n s u m p t i o n of an ETT TRM system includes t h e energy f o r s e t t i n g u p and t h e n m a i n t a i n i n g v a c u u m in t h e t u b e s , o p e r a t i n g TRM trains ( l e v i t a t i o n , p r o p u l s i o n , guidance), and p o w e r i n g t h e o t h e r s u p p o r t i n g systems, facilities, and e q u i p m e n t . Due t o using LH2 f o r p r o p u l s i o n and electric energy f r o m t h e r e n e w a b l e p r i m a r y sources ( w a t e r , sun, nuclear) f o r l e v i t a t i o n and guidance, t h e TRM t r a i n s o p e r a t i n g in t h e v a c u u m e d t u b e s w o u l d have negligible emissions of GHG and c o n s e q u e n t i m p a c t on t h e e n v i r o n m e n t , particularly c o m p a r e d t o t h o s e f r o m b u r n i n g o f JP-1 f u e l (kerosene) by t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l APT aircraft e m i t t e d directly In t h e a t m o s p h e r e [1].
3.6.2. Land use
An ETT TRM system w o u l d occupy a d d i t i o n a l land only f o r building its coast t e r m i n a l s s h o u l d t h e y n o t already be a part o f t h e larger i n t e r m o d a l passenger t e r m i n a l s I n c o r p o r a t e d w i t h i n existing u r b a n s t r u c t u r e s .
3.6.3. Noise
An ETT TRM system w o u l d n o t g e n e r a t e any noise d i s t u r b i n g p o p u l a t i o n a r o u n d t h e l i n e ' s / r o u t e ' s begin and e n d t e r m i n a l m a i n l y because its TRM trains w o u l d o p e r a t e at low speeds w i t h i n t h e t u b e s in t h e i r vicinity.
3.6.4. Congestion
Due t o t h e n a t u r e o f o p e r a t i o n s , an ETT TRM system w o u l d be f r e e f r o m congestion along t h e l i n e s / r o u t e s . Regarding t h e intensity of o p e r a t i o n s , t h e a u t o m a t e d t r a f f i c m a n a g e m e n t systems w o u l d have t o p r o v i d e a precise guidance in o r d e r t o achieve a l m o s t perfect (in t e r m s of seconds) m a t c h i n g of t h e TRM t r a i n ' s actual and scheduled d e p a r t u r e and arrival t i m e s . H o w e v e r , w h i l e relieving a i r p o r t s f r o m congestion by t a k i n g over s o m e APT d e m a n d , t h e ETT TRM system c o u l d c o n t r i b u t e t o increasing congestion in t h e areas a r o u n d its begin a n d end t e r m i n a l s s i m p l y due t o t h e increased intensity o f m o b i l i t y t h e r e , as described above.
3.6.5. Traffic incidents/accidents (safety)
An ETT TRM system is e x p e c t e d t o be safe at least as its APT c o u n t e r p a r t . This implies t h a t i n c i d e n t s / a c c i d e n t s s h o u l d n o t occur due t o t h e k n o w n reasons. H o w e v e r , t h e p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n w i l l have t o be d e v o t e d t o t h e safety and security of I n f r a s t r u c t u r e (tubes), f o r e x a m p l e , p r e v e n t i n g e v e n t u a l t e r r o r i s t t h r e a t s / a t t a c k s , m a i n t a i n i n g v a c u u m , and i n t e r v e n i n g in cases o f losing it due t o d i s t u r b i n g and d i s r u p t i v e e v e n t s . Consequently, t h e TRM t r a i n s o p e r a t i n g a t t h e very high speed w o u l d be i m m e d i a t e l y a u t o m a t i c a l l y s t o p p e d .
3.7. Policy performances
An ETT TRM system w o u l d d e m o n s t r a t e its policy p e r f o r m a n c e s b o t h at t h e n a t i o n a l scale as c o n t r i b u t i o n t o c r e a t i n g an i n t e g r a t e d t r a n s p o r t system and i n t e r n a t i o n a l (global) in t e r m s of c r e a t i n g an i n t e g r a t e d global t h e v e r y high speed non-APT s y s t e m / n e t w o r k , w h i c h w o u l d even s t r o n g e r c o n t r i b u t e t o f u r t h e r globalization o f t h e already highly global e c o n o m y and society. A t such, t h e system w o u l d c o n t r i b u t e t o sustainability of t r a n s p o r t sector t h r o u g h c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e social e c o n o m i c w e l f a r e a n d r e d u c i n g its overall impacts on t h e e n v i r o n m e n t and society.
4. An Estimation of Performances oftlie ETT TRM System
4.1. T h e case: Trans-Atlantic APT market
As m e n t i o n e d above, one a m o n g prospective long-haul ( i n t e r c o n t i n e n t a l ) passenger t r a n s p o r t markets f o r I m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e ETT TRM system could be t h e o n e b e t w e e n Europe and N o r t h America (i.e., Trans-Atlantic). At present, this is t h e w o r l d ' s largest i n t e r c o n t i n e n t a l air passenger m a r k e t served by APT (Air Passenger T r a n s p o r t ) system. Some estimates indicate t h a t t h e average share of this m a r k e t in t h e t o t a l global APT^ m a r k e t of a b o u t 8.3% In 2 0 1 1 w o u l d decrease t o a b o u t 6.5% or 5.4% in 2 0 3 1 , thus Indicating its increasing m a t u r i t y o v e r t i m e i m p l y i n g l o w e r g r o w t h rates(s). Consequently, Fig. 4 shows t h e past and f o r e c a s t e d / p r o s p e c t i v e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e APT d e m a n d in this m a r k e t f o r t h e period 2004-2060 [ 1 0 ] , [ 1 1 ] , [ 1 2 ] .
— Realized
• • Forecasted
Annual growth rates: 2 0 1 5 - 2 0 2 5 - 4 . 0 % / y r 2025-2035 - 3.0%/yr 2035-2050 - 2.5%/yr 2050-2070 - 2.0%/yr .Xf 2 0 0 0 2010 2020 2 0 3 0 2040 2050 2 0 6 0 Year
Figure 4 Possible l o n g - t e r m d e v e l o p m e n t o f APT (Air Passenger T r a n s p o r t ) d e m a n d In T r a n s - A t l a n t i c
m a r k e t ( b o t h directions) [ 1 ] , [ 1 0 ] , [ 1 1 ] , [ 1 2 ] , [16] (Airbus, 2 0 1 2 ; Boeing, 2 0 1 4 ; FAA, 2013; Janic, 2 0 1 4 ; h t t p : / / c e n t r e f o r a v i a t l o n . c o m / a n a l y s i s / t h e n o r t h a t l a n t i c t h e s t a t e o f t h e m a r k e t f i v e y e a r s o n -f r o m - e u - u s - o p e n - s k i e s - 1 0 0 3 1 5 )
As can be seen, u n d e r t h e assumed average annual g r o w t h rates d u r i n g particular sub-periods o f t h e given l o n g t e r m p e r i o d i n d i c a t i n g gradual m a t u r a t i o n o f t h e m a r k e t and w e a k e n i n g its m a i n d e m a n d -driving forces on b o t h sides of Atlantic, t h e annual n u m b e r of passengers ( b o t h d i r e c t i o n s ) is e x p e c t e d t o increase t o a b o u t CLAPI = igS-lO*^ in t h e year 2 0 5 0 , and 240 -10*^ in t h e year 2 0 6 0 . A t t h e
year 2 0 5 0 / 5 1 , t h e i m p l e m e n t e d EET TRM system is s u p p o s e d t o i m m e d i a t e l y a t t r a c t a part o f this e x p e c t e d APT d e m a n d consisting mainly of business ( p r e m i u m class) passengers c o n s i d e r i n g t h e t r a n s p o r t t i m e as o n e of t h e most I m p o r t a n t a t t r i b u t e s f o r choice of t h e t r a n s p o r t s y s t e m / m o d e . These passengers w o u l d access t h e ETT TRM system at b e g i n / e n d t e r m i n a l at b o t h ends o f t h e r o u t e / l i n e by ( i n t e g r a t e d ) f e e d e r services p r o v i d e d by t h e a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d t r a n s p o r t s y s t e m s / m o d e s . Later o v e r t i m e , t h e ETT TRM system c o u l d also b e c o m e increasingly c o n v e n i e n t f o r m o r e massive use also by t h e e c o n o m i c class-passengers.
' Generally, for t h e period ( 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 3 0 / 3 1 ) , both Boeing and Airbus predict t h e annual APT g r o w t h In t e r m s of RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) of a b o u t 5% [10], [11].
4.2. Infrastructural scenario
The length of t h e ETT TRM l i n e / r o u t e in t h e a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d Trans-Atlantic ATP m a r k e t t o be built over t h e p e r i o d o f 20 years (2031-2050) w o u l d be d = 5 6 6 4 k m (similarly as t h e length of r o u t e b e t w e e n London and New York). As s h o w n in Fig. 1, at t h e ETT TRM system design w i t h t w o t r a n s p o r t and single s e r v i c e / m a i n t e n a n c e t u b e , t h e inside and outside d i a m e t e r of each t r a n s p o r t t u b e w o u l d be a b o u t : D2 = 2R2 = 6.2m and Di = 2Ri = 6 . 0 m , and t h a t of t h e service t u b e : Ds2 = 2Rs2 = 3.2m and Dsi = 2Rsi = 3.0m, respectively. This implies thickness of all tubes o f 2 0 0 m m [13]. They w o u l d a c c o m m o d a t e t h e TRM t r a i n ' s height and w i d t h of 4 . 1 6 m and 3 . 7 0 m , respectively, and height of guideway(s) of 1.25m (Fig. 2; Table 1) [1]. For e x a m p l e , let t h e density of ocean w a t e r be: po = 1 . 0 2 7 t o n / m ^ t h e dimension of t h e t u b e s as above; t h e f a c t o r : ƒ = 2 f o r installing guideway(s) and o t h e r systems inside, and t h e average specific gravity o f t h e t u b e s ' m a t e r i a l : Sw = 5.67 t o n / m ^ (i.e., 6 0 / 4 0 % mix o f steel (specific g r a v i t y : Ss = 7.85 t o n / m ^ ) and c o n c r e t e (specific gravity: Sa = 2400 t o n / m ^ ) ) . T h e n , based on Eq. 1 t h e b u o y a n t force of t u b e of length of I m w o u l d be: Wb = 21.72 -29.02 = -7.3kg < 0, w h i c h implies t h a t t h e t u b e w o u l d f l o a t and thus m u s t be a n c h o r e d t o t h e seabed. In a d d i t i o n , t h e b u o y a n t force w o u l d be used t o specify t h e need f o r a n c h o r i n g cables. The q u a n t i t y of m a t e r i a l used t o build t w o t r a n s p o r t and o n e s e r v i c e / m a i n t e n a n c e t u b e w i t h 2 0 0 m m t h i c k walls and t h e specific gravity o f t h e m i x t u r e of m a t e r i a l ( 5 . 6 7 t o n / m ^ ) w o u l d a m o u n t t o a b o u t 1 5 2 - l O ^ t o n . In a d d i t i o n , a b o u t 200 v a c u u m p u m p s (units), each w i t h capacity of l O O m V m i n and energy c o n s u m p t i o n o f 260KWh w o u l d be located at a distance of a b o u t 28km along t h e line. The v o l u m e of air t o be evacuated f r o m t w o tubes w o u l d be: Vor = 2-3.14-5564-10^-3' = 3 2 0 • l ü ' ^ m ^ initially d u r i n g a b o u t 1 1 . 1 days [1], [2], [3], [4].
4.3. T e c h n i c a l / t e c h n o l o g i c a l s c e n a r i o
The ETT TRM system w o u l d c o n s u m e m o s t e n e r g y / f u e l f o r p r o p u l s i o n , i.e., a c c e l e r a t i n g / d e c e l e r a t i n g o f TRM train(s) t o / f r o m t h e i r m a x i m u m cruising speed of: VETT = 8.0-10^ k m / h . If, f o r e x a m p l e , t h e
gross w e i g h t o f five-car TRM t r a i n was 3 2 0 t o n , t h e energy needed t o accelerate it t o / f r o m t h e a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d m a x i m u m cruising speed w o u l d be e s t i m a t e d by Eq. 3a as: EEu/a/d = l/2-320-10^-(8.0-1073.6-10^)^ = 790.2-lO^J = 2 1 9 . 5 M W h . This acceleration phase w o u l d t a k e a b o u t : ütErr/a/d=VETTT/aETT= [(8.0-1073.6-10^)/3.0]/60 = 12.3min (the average a c c e l e r a t i o n / d e c e l e r a t i o n rate is OETT = ±3m/s^). A f t e r t h a t , t h e TRM t r a i n w o u l d c o n t i n u e t o be driven by inertial f o r c e w i t h o u t
c o n s u m i n g a d d i t i o n a l energy f o r p r o p u l s i o n . At t h e end o f r o u t e , t h e TRM train(s) w o u l d spend again t h e same as above a m o u n t of e n e r g y a n d t h e t i m e f o r deceleration and s t o p . Consequently, t h e m i n i m u m r e q u i r e d p o w e r of t h e rocket engine e s t i m a t e d by Eq. 3b w o u l d be: P/TEn/e= l/2-[320-10^-(8.0-1073.640^)-3.0] = 1066.7-10S|<g-m7s^= 1 0 6 6 . 7 M W . The m a s s / w e i g h t o f this engine w o u l d be: mre = 1.7-6.3ton [1], [ 1 4 ] . If LH2 (Liquid Hydrogen) w i t h t h e energy c o n t e n t o f 1 4 2 M J / k g was used, its c o n s u m p t i o n d u r i n g a c c e l e r a t i o n / d e c e l e r a t i o n phase of a t r i p w o u l d be a b o u t Fc/a/d-EETT/a/d/142 = 7 9 0 1 2 3 . 5 / 1 4 2 = 5.6ton each, and t h e t o t a l c o n s u m p t i o n 11.2ton i m p l y i n g t h e capacity of reservoirs o n b o a r d t h e TRM o f Cr = 1 2 t o n . Giving t h e density of LH2 of: D = 7 0 . 8 6 k g / m ^ t h e v o l u m e of t h e s e reservoirs w o u l d be: Vr = Cr/D = 1 2 0 0 0 / 7 0 . 8 5 ~ 170m^ [ 1 5 ] . These all a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d m o d i f i c a t i o n s including t h e w e i g h t o f insulated reservoirs w o u l d increase t h e gross w e i g h t o f t h e TRM t r a i n t o a b o u t : mETT= 3 4 0 t o n . T h e n , t h e energy c o n s u m p t i o n d u r i n g a c c e l e r a t i o n / d e c e l e r a t i o n w o u l d be: ferr/o/d = 2 3 3 . 2 M W h (Fc/a/d = (2-839520.5)/142 = 11.9ton), and t h e m i n i m u m r e q u i r e d p o w e r of t h e rocket engine: P/TEir/e - 1 1 3 3 . 3 M W . The resulting differences b e t w e e n t h e main t e c h n i c a l / t e c h n o l o g i c a l and o p e r a t i o n a l p e r f o r m a n c e s o f t h e basic and m o d i f i e d TRM t r a i n , t h e later t o be o p e r a t e d by t h e ETT system Is given in Table 1.
Table 1 Technical/technological and o p e r a t i o n a l perfornnances o f t h e basic and
m o d i f i e d ETT TRIVI (TransRapid MAGLEV) 07 train [ 1 ] , [ 5 ] , [ 6 ] , [7]
Characteristic Value^' Value^'
Carriages/sections per t r a i n 5 5
Length of t r a i n (m) 128.3 128.3
W i d t h of carriage (m) 3.70 3.70
Height of carriage (m) 4.16 4.16
W e i g h t of e m p t y t r a i n t o n ) 247 247 Gross w e i g h t of a train^' (ton) 3 1 8 - 3 2 0 340
Seating capacity (max) (seats) 4 4 6 4 0 0
Gross w e i g h t / s e a t ratio (average) 0 . 7 1 0.85 Axle load - gross w e i g h t ( t o n / m ) 2.47-2.479 2.65 Technical curve radius (m) 2 8 2 5 - 3 5 8 0 2 8 2 5 - 3 5 8 0
M a x i m u m engine p o w e r ( M W ) 25 1133.3
Lateral t i l t i n g angle (°) 12-16 12-16
M a x i m u m o p e r a t i n g speed ( k m / h ) 4 0 0 - 4 5 0 8000 M a x i m u m a c c e l e r a t i o n / d e c e l e r a t i o n (m/s^) 0.8-1.5 3 ^
il Non-vacuum; 2)Vacuum; ^'Approxlmately 64ton/carriage including the weight of passengers
and their baggage
4.4. Operating scenario
4.4.1. General
The " w h a t - i f " o p e r a t i n g scenario is d e v e l o p e d f o r t h e year 2 0 5 0 / 5 1 w h e n t h e EET TRM system is supposed t o be i m p l e m e n t e d b e t w e e n Europe and N o r t h America (over N o r t h - A t l a n t i c ) and as such s t a r t c o m p e t i n g w i t h t h e w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d APT system.
T h r e e o p e r a t i o n a l c o m p e t i n g scenarios are considered regarding t h e APT system exclusively o p e r a t i n g :
1) C o n v e n t i o n a l sub-sonic aircraft f l e e t w i t h t h e cruising speed of a b o u t 0 . 8 5 M at t h e a l t i t u d e s o f a b o u t 33-lO^ft ( I M = 1 0 7 8 k m / h at t h e a l t i t u d e o f 3 3 ' l O ^ f t (M - M a c h n u m b e r ) (ETT-APT/C); ii) Fleet of STA NASA (Supersonic T r a n s p o r t Aircraft-NASA High-Speed Civil T r a n s p o r t ) b e y o n d t h e
year 2030 w i t h t h e cruising speed o f 2.0-2.4M at t h e altitudes o f 60-lO^ft ( I M = 1062 k m / h a t t h e a l t i t u d e o f eO-lO^ft; 1ft = 0 . 3 0 5 m ) (EET-APT/STA NASA); and
ill) Fleet of ECH M 5 C (EC Hydrogen M a c h 5 Cruiser A2) b e y o n d t h e y e a r 2030 w i t h t h e cruising speed of M 5.0 at t h e a l t i t u d e s o f eO-lO^ft ( I M = 1062 k m / h at t h e a l t i t u d e of 60-103ft; 1ft = 0.305m) (EFT-APT/ECH M5C) [ 1 ] .
4.4.2. Estimation of passenger demand
A c c o r d i n g t o t h e f o r e c a s t e d passenger d e m a n d in Fig. 4, t h e a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d APT system is e x p e c t e d t o carry o u t a b o u t 199'10^ in t h e y e a r 2 0 5 1 and a b o u t 2 4 0 ' 1 0 ^ passengers in t h e year 2060. Based o n t h e past experience and assuming t h a t it w i l l c o n t i n u e in t h e f u t u r e , a b o u t 1618%, i.e., 3 2 -33-10^ o f t h e s e m a i n l y business ( p r e m i u m class) passengers w o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o choose b e t w e e n t h e APT system o p e r a t e d by d i f f e r e n t a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d aircraft categories and t h e n e w l y i m p l e m e n t e d EETTRM system [ 1 6 ] .
U n d e r an a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e cost o f access t i m e and prices are g o i n g t o be a p p r o x i m a t e l y equal f o r b o t h systems, t h e t r a v e l t i m e b e t w e e n origin and d e s t i n a t i o n airport(s) of t h e ATP and b e t w e e n b e g i n / e n d t e r m i n u s of ETT TRM appears t o be t h e m a i n a t t r i b u t e of s y s t e m / m o d e choice. Some
relevant o p e r a t i o n a l characteristics ( a l t i t u d e , cruising speed) and c o n s e q u e n t average r o u t e t r a v e l t i m e relevant f o r t h e m o d a l choice are e s t i m a t e d and given in Table 2.
Table 2 Some o p e r a t i n g characteristics of t h e EET TRM and t h e APT system In t h e given case -
Trans-A t l a n t i c m a r k e t [1], [ 2 7 ] , [ 2 8 ] , [29] (Coen, 2 0 1 1 ; EC, 2006, 2 0 0 8 ; Janic, 2014; NTrans-AS, 2001)
Transport mode Length Operating Average block Average door-to-door of route altitude^' speed^' travel time^'
d H V da +rij+ti,(d) (km) (lO^ft) ( M ; k m / h ) (h) ETT 5564 - 1 . 0 5.5; 6700 3.5 + 0.83 = 4.33 APT/C 5564 + 33 0.7; 740 1.5 + 7.5 = 9.0 APT/STA NASA 5564 + 60 2.0-2.4; 2 1 2 4 - 2 5 4 9 1.5 + 2.66 = 3.16 APT/ECH M 5 C 5564 + 60 5.0; 5310 1.5+ 1.09 = 2.59
ETT- Evacuated Tube Transport; APT/C-Air Passenger Transport/Conventional; APT/STA NASA - Air Passenger Transport/NASA High-Speed Civil Transport; APT/ECH IV15C-Air Passenger Transport/EC Hydrogen IVlach 5 Cruiser A2; M - Mach number; D Above MLS (IVliddle Sea Level); 1ft = 0.305m; ^1 Including acceleration and deceleration rate of: 0*/- = +3 m/s, respectively, t o / f r o m the maximum corresponding cruising speed of 8.0*10^ km/h in the vacuum tube.
As can be seen, t h e ETT is supposed t o have t h e s h o r t e r d o o r - t o - d o o r t i m e t h a n its APT/C c o u n t e r p a r t , t h u s presumably d e m o n s t r a t i n g capability f o r a t t r a c t i n g t h e a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d passenger d e m a n d . However, It w o u l d not be s u p e r i o r c o m p a r e d t o its APT/STA NASA and APT/ECH M 5 C c o u n t e r p a r t , mainly due t o t h e m u c h longer accessing/leaving t i m e .
Based on this d o o r - t o - d o o r t r a v e l t i m e , t h e m a r k e t share and t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g v o l u m e s of passenger d e m a n d expected t o be a t t r a c t e d by t h e ETT system u n d e r given c o n d i t i o n s are e s t i m a t e d means by Eq. 4a-c and given in Table 3.
Table 3 M a r k e t share and d e m a n d o f t h e EETTRM in t h e c o m p e t i n g scenarios w i t h t h e APT system in
t h e given case - Trans-Atlantic m a r k e t
Competing modes (Scenario) Market share of ETT Pm-(%)
Demand for ETT (Year 2050/51)
Qm
(lO'^pass/yr)
Demand for ETT (Year 2 0 5 0 / 5 1 ) QETT (lO^pass/day/dir)^' ETT-APT/C 32 - 3 6 0.990 31.70 - 3 5 . 9 6 4 3 . 4 - 4 8 . 8 EET-APT/STA NASA 32 - 3 6 0.458 14.66 - 1 6 . 4 9 2 0 . 0 - 22.6 EET-APT/ECH M 5 C 32 - 3 6 0.149 4 . 7 7 - 5 . 3 6 6 . 5 - 7 . 3
ETT- Evacuated Tube Transport; APT/C- Air Passenger Transport/Conventional; APT/STA NASA - Air Passenger Transport/ NASA High-Speed Civil Transport; APT/ECH MSC - Air Passenger Transport / EC Hydrogen Mach 5 Cruiser A2; dir - direction; y r - y e a r ; Average during the day per direction ( l y e a r = 365 days)
As can be s e e n , if c o m p e t i n g exclusively w i t h t h e ATP/C, t h e ETT w o u l d a t t r a c t a l m o s t its e n t i r e ( p r e m i u m class) passenger d e m a n d . If c o m p e t i n g w i t h t h e APT/STA NASA and APT/ECH M 5 C , it w o u l d a t t r a c t a b o u t 4 6 % and 15%, respectively, of t h e t o t a l ATP/C ( p r e m i u m class) passenger d e m a n d .
If an ETT TRM t r a i n have t h e seating capacity SETT = 400seats and t h e average load f a c t o r of AETT = 0.90, t h e service f r e q u e n c y e s t i m a t e d by Eq. 4 d based on t h e passenger d e m a n d in Table 3 is given in Table 4 .
Table 4 Service f r e q u e n c y o f t h e ETT TRIVI system In t h e c o m p e t i n g scenarios
w i t h t h e APT system in t h e given case - Trans -Atlantic m a r k e t
Competing modes D e m a n d by ETT Daily service Hourly service
(Scenario) (Year 2 0 5 0 / 5 1 ) frequency frequency
QETT Em fm
(lO^pass/day/dir)^' ( d e p / d a y / d i r ) ( d e p / h / d i r ) ^ '
ETT-APT/C 4 3 . 4 - 4 8 . 8 6 0 - 6 8 3-4
EET-APT/STA NASA 2 2 . 0 - 22.6 2 8 - 3 1 2-2
EET-APT/ECH M 5 C 6 . 5 - 7 . 3 9 - 1 0 1-1
11 Operating time during the day: 18h; Sen = 400seats; AETT = 0.90 (dir -direction)
As can be seen, in t h e case o f c o m p e t i t i o n b e t w e e n t h e ETT and APT/C, t h e d e p a r t u r e s on t h e given l i n e / r o u t e w o u l d take place every 1 5 2 0 m i n giving t h e average passenger schedule delay o f l / 2 ( 1 5 -20) = 7.5-10.0 m i n . In t h e case of c o m p e t i t i o n b e t w e e n t h e EET and APT/STA NASA, t h e d e p a r t u r e s w o u l d t a k e place every 3 0 m i n w i t h an average schedule delay of 1 5 m i n . In t h e case o f c o m p e t i t i o n b e t w e e n t h e EET and APT/ECH M5C, t h e d e p a r t u r e s w o u l d be carried once per h o u r ( 6 0 m i n ) a n d t h e schedule delay w o u l d be 3 0 m i n .
T h e r e q u i r e d TRM f l e e t c o m p e t i n g w i t h t h e EET- APT/C scenario based o n Eq. 5a w o u l d b e : NEET = (3¬
4) -5.66 = 17-23tralns, and 19-25 t r a i n s , if a 10% reserve was i n c l u d e d . Respecting t h a t t h e s t o p t i m e o f each EET t r a i n at b o t h e n d t e r m i n a l s w a s : tErr/s = 2h (120min) (mainly d u e t o safe r e f u e l i n g w i t h
LH2), t h e t u r n a r o u n d t i m e based on Eq. 5b w o u l d be: tETT/Td = 2- (0.83+2) = 5.66h. As w e l l , by Eq. 2, t h e
r e q u i r e d n u m b e r of tracks at each t e r m i n a l t o handle d e p a r t i n g a n d arriving TRM trains in t h e scenario EET-APT/C w h e n each of t h e m stops f o r an average t i m e of: tErr/s = 2h ( 1 2 0 m i n ) w o u l d be: no,= (3-4)-(2)=6-8 tracks. T h e length o f each track w o u l d be m i n i m u m 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 m t o enable a c c o m m o d a t i o n of t h e TRM trains a n d t h e i r c o m f o r t a b l e e m b a r k i n g and d i s e m b a r k i n g . The a d d i t i o n a l tracks (1-2) need also t o be p r o v i d e d at each t e r m i n a l f o r TRM trains t e m p o r a r y n o t in service.
The t e c h n i c a l p r o d u c t i v i t y o f a single TRM t r a i n f o r t h e scenario EET-APT/C is e s t i m a t e d by Eq. 6a as: TPErr/v= 4 0 0 - 6 . 8 - 1 0 ^ = 2 . 7 2 0 - 1 0 V k m / h . In a d d i t i o n , t h e t e c h n i c a l p r o d u c t i v i t y of t h e TRM t r a i n f l e e t d u r i n g o n e h o u r e s t i m a t e d by Eq. 6b w o u l d be: TPETT//= (3-4)-400-6.8-10^(km/h) =
8.16-10.90s-k m / h / h . Table 5 summarizes s o m e of t h e above m e n t i o n e d t h e ETT system's o p e r a t i o n a l p e r f o r m a n c e s in particular c o m p e t i n g scenarios.
Table 5 Some Infrastructural and o p e r a t i o n a l p e r f o r m a n c e s o f t h e ETT TRM system in t h e
c o m p e t i n g scenarios w i t h t h e APT system in t h e given case - Trans-Atlantic m a r k e t
Competing modes Service Tracks at Required Technical
(Scenario) frequency end terminals T R M fleet productivity
£m Ut NETT ( d e p / h / d i r ) ^ ' ( t r a c k s / t e r m i n a l ) (trains) (10^ s-k m / h / h ) EET-APT/C 3 - 4 6 - 8 17 - 23^'/19 - 25^' 8 . 1 5 - 1 0 . 9 EET-APT/STA NASA 2 - 2 4 / 5 1 1 / 1 3 5.5 EET-APT/ECH M5C 1 - 1 2 / 3 6 / 6 2.7
4.4. Economic scenario
According t o t h e " w h a t - i f " e c o n o m i c scenario, t h e ETT system in t h e given case is assumed t o p r o v i d e a r e t u r n on i n v e s t m e n t , i.e., positive or zero c o s t - b e n e f i t ratio o v e r a p e r i o d o f 4 0 years a f t e r being i m p l e m e n t e d .
4.4.1. Costs
The i n v e s t m e n t costs f o r building t u b e s a p p e a r t o be very u n c e r t a i n but s o m e estimates Indicate t h a t t h e y could be a b o u t 14.6-20.2-10'^$US/km (i.e., S l - l l S - l O ^ S U S f o r t h e e n t i r e l i n k / l i n e o f length o f 5 5 6 4 k m including t h e passenger t e r m i n a l s at b o t h ends) [ 1 7 ] . The cost of t h e TRM guldeways in t h e t u b e s in a single d i r e c t i o n w o u l d be similar as at t h e t o d a y ' s T R M - a b o u t 16.8-10'^$US/km (i.e., f o r t w o tracks t h i s gives t h e t o t a l i n v e s t m e n t cost of 5564-2-16.8-10^ = 187-10^$US). Thus, If t h e system was built over t h e 20-year period b e t w e e n 2030 and 2 0 5 0 , t h e t o t a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e (tubes, TRM g u i d e w a y s , t e r m i n a l s ) and t h e cost o f facilities and e q u i p m e n t ( v a c u u m p u m p s , p o w e r supply s y s t e m , t r a f f i c c o n t r o l s y s t e m , and f i r e p r o t e c t i o n system) w o u l d be a b o u t 268-302-10^$US, o r w i t h o u t t a k i n g i n t o account t h e interest rate(s), 13.4-15.l-lO^SUS/yr. As an i l l u s t r a t i o n , t h e share of t h e i n v e s t m e n t costs in t h e c u m u l a t i v e GDP of Europe (EU) ( 6 9 0 . 3 4 - 1 0 " $US) and N o r t h A m e r i c a (USA, Canada) ( 7 7 1 . 4 - 1 0 " $US) d u r i n g t h a t period w o u l d be a b o u t 0.018 - 0.026%, respectively [ 1 ] , [ 1 8 ] .
The costs o f o p e r a t i n g i n f r a s t r u c t u r e w o u l d a m o u n t t o a b o u t 10% of t h e i n v e s t m e n t costs, w h i c h w o u l d give t o t a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e costs o f a b o u t : Q = 14.74-16.61-10''$US/yr. A s s u m i n g t h a t t h e passenger d e m a n d in each year of t h e i n v e s t m e n t - r e t u r n i n g 40-year p e r i o d w o u l d be a t least t h e same as in 2 0 5 0 / 5 1 , a n d t h e o p e r a t i o n a l cost of a TRM t r a i n C o = 0 . 0 9 5 $ U S / p - k m , t h e t o t a l unit costs (ct) of an EET TRM system f o r d i f f e r e n t c o m p e t i n g scenarios in Table 3 are estihnated and given in Table 6.
Table 6 Some e c o n o m i c p e r f o r m a n c e s o f t h e ETT TRM system f o r t h e c o m p e t i n g scenarios w i t h t h e
APT system in t h e given case - Trans-Atlantic m a r k e t
Competing modes Passenger Infrastructure Operational Total
(Scenario) demand^' (unit) cost^' (unit) cost (unit) cost
QET^ Co Ql
( l O ^ p - k m / y r ) ($US/p-km) (SUS/p-km) ( $ U S / p - k m )
EET-APT/C 1 7 9 . 5 - 2 0 7 . 5 0.087-0.076 0.095 0 . 1 8 2 - 0 . 1 7 1 EET-APT/STA NASA 8 3 . 0 - 9 3 . 2 0.189-0.168 0.095 0 . 2 8 4 - 0 . 2 6 3 EET-APT/ECH M 5 C 2 7 . 0 - 3 0 . 4 0.580-0.516 0.095 0 . 6 7 5 - 0 . 6 1 0
QETT*=QEn-d; ^* The average annual total costs of infrastructure are estimated to be: G =
[(14.74+16.61)*10^]/2 = 15.68 • 10^$US/yr; p-km-passenger-kilometer; yr-year
4.4.2. Revenues
The revenues gained f r o m o p e r a t i n g t h e EET system u n d e r given c o n d i t i o n s can be considered t o be direct, i.e., t h o s e f r o m charging users/passengers, and i n d i r e c t , i.e., savings in t h e cost of passenger in-vehicle t i m e u n d e r given c o m p e t i n g scenarios w i t h APT.
The ETT system d i r e c t revenues are i l l u s t r a t e d by t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e EET average cost-c o v e r i n g f a r e per passenger and t h e a n n u a l v o l u m e of passenger d e m a n d d i v e r t e d f r o m t h e APT in t h e a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d c o m p e t i n g scenarios in t h e given case as s h o w n on Fig. 5.
4 2 0 0
7 0 0 I ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '
O 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q C T T - Passenger demand - lO^passengers/yr
Figure 5 Relationship b e t w e e n t h e average f a r e and t h e a n n u a l ( p r e m i u m ) passenger d e m a n d at t h e
ETT TRIVI system in t h e given case - Trans-Atlantic m a r k e t
As can be seen, t h e o n e - w a y fare c o v e r i n g t h e cost varies b e t w e e n a b o u t P(QETT) = 970 and 3500$US/pass, and decreases m o r e t h a n p r o p o r t i o n a l l y w i t h increasing of t h e annual ( p r e m i u m class) passenger d e m a n d . As based on t h e average t o t a l cost, this f a r e also reflects existence o f e c o n o m i e s of d e m a n d d e n s i t y at t h e EET TRM system u n d e r given c o n d i t i o n s . The ETT TRM system i n d i r e c t revenues, i.e., saving in t h e passenger cost d o o r - t o - d o o r t i m e , in d e p e n d e n c e o f t h e a n n u a l ( p r e m i u m class) passenger d e m a n d are s h o w n on Fig. 6.
10
-4 I '
Q E J T - Passenger demand - lO^pass/yr
Figure 6 Relationship b e t w e e n t h e savings in cost of passenger d o o r - t o - d o o r t i m e and t h e v o l u m e o f
a n n u a l ( p r e m i u m ) passenger d e m a n d at t h e ETT TRM system in t h e given case - T r a n s - A t l a n t i c m a r k e t [ 1 ] , [19], [20] (Janic, 2 0 1 4 ; Landau et al., 2015; USDT, 2011)
As can be seen, t h e r a t h e r e n o r m o u s savings in t h e costs o f passenger d o o r - t o - d o o r t r a v e l t i m e w o u l d be achieved at t h e EET-APT/C c o m p e t i n g scenario. These savings w o u l d be negative and not in f a v o r o f t h e ETT system in t h e o t h e r t w o scenarios (particularly at ETT-APT/ECH M5C) m a i n l y d u e t o t h e relatively low a t t r a c t e d passenger d e m a n d u n d e r given c o n d i t i o n s (Table 3) [ 1 ] , [ 1 9 ] , [ 2 0 ] .
4.5. Environmental/social/policy scenario
The ETT TRM system o p e r a t i n g in t h e given case is assumed t o be f r e e o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l impacts such f u e l / e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n f r o m t h e n o n - r e n e w a b l e sources, related emissions of GHG (Green House Gases), and land u s e / t a k e . It is also f r e e f r o m t h e social Impacts such as noise, c o n g e s t i o n , and t r a f f i c incidents/accidents (safety), t h e latest n o t t o happen due t o k n o w n reasons. As such, it w o u l d possess substantive p e r f o r m a n c e s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o policies a i m i n g at reducing t h e overall impacts o f t r a n s p o r t sector on t h e society and e n v i r o n m e n t . Nevertheless, its " w h a t - i f e n v i r o n m e n t a l scenario mainly relate t o savings in t h e a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d impacts due t o reducing t h e scale of o p e r a t i o n s of t h e APT system thanks t o a t t r a c t i n g passenger d e m a n d f r o m it u n d e r given c o n d i t i o n s .
The rocket-engine propellants used by t h e ETT TRM trains and b u r n i n g o u t w i t h i n t h e t u b e s w o u l d n o t p r o d u c e emissions of GHG i m p a c t i n g t h e outside e n v i r o n m e n t [30]. The (electric) energy f o r o p e r a t i n g t h e ETT TRM system's s u p p o r t i n g facilities and e q u i p m e n t w o u l d be c o m p l e t e l y o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e n o n - r e n e w a b l e (nuclear) and r e n e w a b l e (solar, w i n d , w a t e r ) sources thus i m p l y i n g t h a t t h e emissions of GHG f r o m o p e r a t i n g t h e ETT TRM system w o u l d be negligible c o m p a r e d t o t h a t f r o m b u r n i n g crude oil-based JP-1 f u e l - k e r o s e n e . Under such c o n d i t i o n s , t a k i n g over t h e passenger d e m a n d f r o m t h e APT system w o u l d reduce t h e v o l u m e s of its o p e r a t i o n s and c o n s e q u e n t l y t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g impacts on t h e e n v i r o n m e n t and society. This w o u l d be particularly in t h e ETT TRM -APT/C c o m p e t i n g scenario, w h e n t h e APT system was assumed to exclusively o p e r a t e t h e aircraft similar t o t o d a y ' s B 7 8 7 - 8 / 9 and A 3 5 0 - 8 0 0 / 9 0 0 aircraft w i t h t h e average f u e l c o n s u m p t i o n of a b o u t :
/ A P T / I = 0.0206 kg/s-km orfAPT/2= 0.0257 k g / p - k m (the load f a c t o r was supposed t o he AAPT = 0.80) [ 2 1 ] ,
[22]. The emission rate of JP-1 f u e l is: = 5.25 l<gC02e/l<g, w h i c h gives t h e average GHG emission rates of a b o u t : eAPi/i = 0.108 kgC02e/s-km or CAPTA = 0.135 kgC02e/p-km. T h e n , t h e costs of COze
emissions as t h e saved externalities by t h e ETT TRM f r o m t h e APT system are e s t i m a t e d f o r t h e a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d c o m p e t i n g scenarios and given in Table 7.
T a b l e 7 Some e n v i r o n m e n t a l p e r f o r m a n c e s - savings in externalities - o f t h e ETT TRM system f o r t h e c o m p e t i n g scenarios w i t h t h e APT system in t h e given case - Trans-Atlantic m a r k e t [ 1 ] , [14],
[ 2 4 ] , [25] L — • J / L — - ' J Competing modes (Scenario) Passenger demand^' Qnr (lO^p-km/yr) Savings in cost of C02e (103$US/yr)
Savings in total costs -externalities"'
( 1 0 ^ $ U S / y r )
EET-APT/C 179.5 - 2 0 7 . 5 9.0 -10.421 1 6 . 4 - 1 8 . 5 EET-APT/STA NASA 8 3 . 0 - 9 3 . 2 0 . 5 - 0 . 8 4 ^ ' 6 . 5 - 7 . 3 EET- APT/ECH M 5 C 2 7 . 0 - 3 0 . 4 0 . 2 4 - 0 . 2 7 ^ ' 2 . 1 - 2 . 4
1' QETT* = QETT • d; ^1 Ce = 0.050$US/p-km (BAU - Business As Usual scenario); 3) Ce = 0.009$US/p-km (Unit cost of C02e externalities); "> c,e = 0.078SUS/p-km (Total cost of the social and environmental impacts-externalities); p-km-passenger-kilometer; yr-year
As can be seen, t h e savings in externalities w o u l d be substantive and d e p e n d e n t mainly o n v o l u m e o f s w i t c h e d APT d e m a n d and t h e aircraft t e c h n o l o g i e s o p e r a t e d by t h e ATP system u n d e r given c o n d i t i o n s .
5. Conclusions
This paper has dealt w i t h t h e m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l e x a m i n a t i o n of i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l , t e c h n i c a l / t e c h n o l o g i c a l , o p e r a t i o n a l , e c o n o m i c , e n v i r o n m e n t a l , social, and policy p e r f o r m a n c e s o f t h e advanced f u t u r i s t i c ETT TRM system o p e r a t e d by t h e TRM (TransRapid Maglev) trains. These all
have been m o d e l e d a n d t h e n e s t i m a t e d according t o t h e " w h a t - l f " scenario a p p r o a c h of c o m p e t i t i o n o f t h e ETT TRM w i t h APT (Air passenger T r a n s p o r t ) system in t h e given long-haul ( i n t e r c o n t i n e n t a l ) passenger m a r k e t . The results have s h o w n t h e f o l l o w i n g :
i) The ETT TRM system o p e r a t i n g a p p r o p r i a t e l y redesigned TRM (TransRapid Maglev) trains c o u l d successfully c o m p e t e in t h e given ( N o r t h - A t l a n t i c ) and p r e s u m a b l y o t h e r long-haul markets w i t h t h e APT system exclusively o p e r a t i n g t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l (kerosene-fueled) aircraft. This implies its c o n t r i b u t i o n t o savings in t h e APT system's Impacts on t h e society (cost of passenger t i m e , local noise, c o n g e s t i o n , and t r a f f i c i n c i d e n t s / a c c i d e n t s (safety)) and e n v i r o n m e n t ( e n e r g y / f u e l c o n s u m p t i o n and related emissions of GHG (Green House Gases)), and land use; and
ii) The ETT TRM system c o m p e t i n g w i t h t h e APT system exclusively o p e r a t i n g t h e super and h y p e r -sonic aircraft in t h e given ( N o r t h - A t l a n t i c ) and o t h e r long-haul markets w o u l d be less successful due t o a t t r a c t i n g m u c h l o w e r passenger d e m a n d and c o n s e q u e n t l y c o n t r i b u t i n g much l o w e r if at all t o savings in t h e a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d social and e n v i r o n m e n t a l Impacts.
In a d d i t i o n , this e x a m i n a t i o n has indicated s o m e advantages and disadvantages of t h e ETT TRM system itself and its p o t e n t i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e overall sustainability of t r a n s p o r t sector.
The ETT TRM system's main advantages w o u l d be as f o l l o w s : i) The very high speed of t r a n s p o r t services by t h e TRM t r a i n s ;
ii) Substantive f u e l (LH2) c o n s u m p t i o n f o r p r o p u l s i o n of TRM trains d u r i n g acceleration and d e c e l e r a t i o n phase o f a t r i p ;
iii) Free f r o m impacts o n t h e e n v i r o n m e n t and society such as emissions of GHG (Green House Gases), land use, noise, and c o n g e s t i o n ; and
iv) I n h e r e n t c o m p l e x i t y challenging i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o o p e r a t i o n in p l a n n i n g , design, i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , and o p e r a t i o n .
The ETT TRM system's main disadvantages could be as f o l l o w s : i) Redesign of basic c o n f i g u r a t i o n of TRM train(s);
ii) High v u l n e r a b i l i t y (exposure) t o d i f f e r e n t (external) d i s t u r b i n g / d i s r u p t i v e events;
iii) C o n t i n u o u s need f o r m a i n t a i n i n g v a c u u m in t h e a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d v u l n e r a b l e (exposed) t u b e s ; and
iv) High i n f r a s t r u c t u r e b u i l d i n g and o p e r a t i n g ( m a i n t e n a n c e ) costs including t h e cost of m a i n t a i n i n g p e r m a n e n t v a c u u m in t h e t u b e s .
Summary
M u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l e x a m i n a t i o n of p e r f o r m a n c e s of t h e f u t u r e advanced ETT (Evacuated T u b e T r a n s p o r t ) system o p e r a t e d by TRM (TransRapidMaglev); assessment o f t h e ETT TRM s y s t e m c o n t r i b u t i o n t o sustainability of t h e f u t u r e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r t h r o u g h its c o m p l e t i o n w i t h APT (Air Passenger T r a n s p o r t ) system In t h e given case - long-haul ( N o r t h - A t l a n t i c ) passenger t r a n s p o r t m a r k e t .
References
1. Janic, M . , (2014), Advanced Transport Systems: Analysis, Modelling, and Evaluation of
Performances, Springer, L o n d o n , UK
2. Salter, R.M., (1972), "The V e r y High Speed Transit S y s t e m " , The Rand Corporation, p. 4 8 7 4 , Santa M o n i c a , California, USA, p. 18
