A C T A U N I V E R S I T A T I S L O D Z I E N S I S _________ ___________ FOLIA OECONOMICA 5 4 .1 9 8 6 _________________
W iesław J u s z c z a k * , W ładysław W o lf* * * FORECASTS OF THE POLISH ECONOMY 1983-1985
BASED ON THE W3379 MODEL
The p a p e r p r e s e n t s t h e r e s u l t s o f an e x o e r o i s e I n f o r e c a s t i n g o r r a t h e r i n s i m u l a t i o n , a s i t i s sh ow ing t h e f u t u r e d e v e lo p -m ent o f t h e P o l i s h econo-my i n t h r e e v a r i a n t s . The r e a s o n was t h a t we had t o f a c e g r e a t u n c e r t a i n t i e s b o t h w ith r e g a r d to t h e outoom e o f t h e y e a r 1982 and t h e m ain o o n s t r a i n t s o f e x p e o te d r e o o v o r y i n t h e n e x t 3 y e a r s .
I n O o to b e r 1 9 8 2 ,when t h e f o r e o a s t s w ere p r e p a r e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e W3S79 m o d el1 , we w ere n o t a b l e t o d e c id e p r e o i s e l y what w ould b e t h e p o i n t o f d e p a r t u r e o f t h e f o r e c a s t ( t o d a y i n D ecem ber t h e o u tlo o k f o r 1982 i s s t i l l n o t c l e a r e n o u g h ). So we t r i e d t o assum e t h r e e d i f f e r e n t h y p o th e s e s w ith r e g a r d t o t h e outoom e o f t h i s y e a r . The a d d i t i o n a l argum ent w a s, t h a t t h e m o n th ly s t a t l s t l o s w h ich was p u b l is h e d f o r t h e y e a r 1982 w ould p r o b a b ly u n d e rg o s e v e r a l r e v i s i o n s i n t h e f u t u r e . T h is i s b a s e d on two r e m a r k s . The f i r s t one r e f e r s t o t h e p u b l i c a t i o n o f s e v e r a l f i g u r e s f o r 1981 w hich a r e h a r d l y a c c e p t a b l e . F o r i n s t a n c e , t h e d e o l l n e o f n e t o u tp u t I n 1981 i n ra in in g i n d u s t r y was r e p o r t e d t o b e o a 40% and i n f o o d s t u f f i n d u s t r y m ore t h a n 50%, w h e re a s t h e g r o s s o u tp u t d e c l i n e d b y 11—9% o n l y . I t i s r a t h e r d i f f i c u l t t o u n d e r s t a n d how and why t h e i n p u t s m ig h t h a v e i n c r e a s e d s o e n o r -m o u sly d e s p i t e t h e d e c l i n e o f o u t p u t . The se o o n d r e a s o n was t h a t t h e m o n th ly s t a t i s t i c s o f a g g r e g a te s y i e l d s a d i f f e r e n t p i o t u r e
- * L e o t u r e r , I n s t i t u t e o f E o o n o m e trlc s and S t a t i s t i c s , U n i v j r - s i t y o f Ł ó d ź.
* * P r o f . D r . , H ead , I n s t i t u t e o f E c o n o m e tric s and S t a t i s t i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f L o d i.
1 The d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e W3S79 m odel o a n b e fo u n d i n L u - b e r a , P o t a r g o w i o s , W e l f e 1 9 82.
t h a n t h a t o f p r o d u o tio n o f i n d i v i d u a l c o m m o d itie s .T h e f i r e t shows t h a t i n a m a j o r i t y o f m a n u f a c tu r in g I n d u s t r i e s t h e r e was a d e -c r e a s e i n t h e r a t e o f d e c l i n e o f t h e t o t a l o u tp u t i n t h e f i r s t h a l f o f 1982, and th e n a alo w i n c r e a s e i n t h e o u tp u t o f t h o s e i n d u s t r i e s ( t h e m in in g i n d u s t r y was g ro w in g from t h e b e g in n in g o f t h e y e a r 1 9 8 2 ). On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e f i g u r e s r e f e r r i n g t o t h e o u tp u t o f m a jo r p r o d u c ts i n d i c a t e t h a t v e ry few o f them have shown an i n c r e a s e a l s o i n Autumn. I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t t o t a l i n -c r e a s e was due t o th o s e ite m s w hich do n o t a p p e a r I n com m odity s t a t i s t i c s b e in g p ro d u c e d i n s m a ll q u a n t i t i e s .
T h is e x p l a i n s why we w ere n o t s u r e a b o u t t h e outcom e o f t h e y e a r 1982 and h av e p o s t u l a t e d t h r e e d i f f e r e n t h y p o th e s e s w ith r e g a r d t o t h e p o i n t o f d e p a r t u r e o f o u r f o r e c a s t s . The f o r e c a s t i n g o r r a t h e r s i m u l a t i o n s c e n a r i o s w ere m a in ly b a s e d on d i f f e r e n t a s s u m p tio n s w ith r e g a r d t o t h e e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s ( f o r e i g n t r a d e and w e a th e r c o n d i t i o n s a f f e c t i n g r e s u l t s i n a g r i c u l t u r e ) a s w e ll a s t o t h e e f f i c i e n c y of t h e econom ic sy ste m c a r r y -i n g o u t th e econom ic re fo rm i n i n f l a t i o n a r y s u r r o u n d i n g s , and b e in g a f f e c t e d by t h e m ixed econom ic p o l i c y m e a s u re s aim ed a t r e c o v e r y and s t a b i l i z a t i o n . I t seem s t h a t t h e c e n t r a l p l a n n e r p r e p a r i n g t h e p r o p o s a l o f t h e 3 - y e a r p l a n 1983-1985 was r i g h t i n e v a l u a t i n g t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s w hioh o c c u r i n o u r b a la n c e o f p a y -m ents p o s i t i o n on t h e one h a n d , and a g r i c u l t u r a l c o n d i t i o n s , on t h e o t h e r h a n d 2 .T h i s g i v e s u s a r i g h t t o make s i m i l a r a s s u m p tio n s w ith r e g a r d t o d i f f e r e n t s c e n a r i o s . O ur v a r i a n t s a r e , h o w e v e r, more d e e p ly d i v e r s i f i e d . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , we i n tr o d u c e d s e v e r a l s p e c i f i c a s s u m p tio n s ( w i th r e g a r d t o i n d u s t r i a l e f f i c i e n c y , w ag es, p r i c e s e t c . ) . Below we w i l l i n d i c a t e i n some m ore d e t a i l w here o u r a s s u m p tio n s d i f f e r from t h o s e made by t h e c e n t r a l p l a n -n e r . O th e r w is e , we w ould n o t h a v e a good r e a s o n t o p r e s e n t o u r f o r e c a s t i n d e p e n d e n tly o f t h e o f f i c i a l 3 - y e a r p l a n p r o p o s a l . We do n o t c la im t h a t o u r f o r e c a s t m ig h t be b e t t e r . I t h a s b e e n a n e x c e r c i s e b a s e d on a s t r o n g a s s u m p tio n t h a t t h e econom ic s t r u c t u r e o b s e rv e d i n th e 7 0 s , b e in g d e s c r i b e d by t h e m o d el, w i l l re m a in f a i r l y c o n s t a n t . Of c o u r s e , we had t o r e l a x t h e above a s s u m p tio n i n t h e l i g h t o f t h e c h a n g e s i n econom ic r e l a t i o n s 2 C f . : W a ria n ty k o n c e p c ji . . . , 1982.
in d u c e d by t h e econom ic o r i s i s , i . e . we h a d t o i n tr o d u o e r e s p e c -t i v e c h a n g e s i n -t h e p a r a m e -te r s o f s e v e r a l e q u a -ti o n s o f -t h e m o d el. L e t me m e n tio n w hich o f them w ere o h a n g e d .
F i r s t o f a l l , a d ju s tm e n ts w ere made i n e q u a ti o n s f o r t h e p r o d u o tio n s e o t o r . We n o t i c e d t h a t t h e i n i t i a l f o r e c a s t s have o v e r e s t im a t e d t h e w o rk in g tim e i n t h e m a n u f a c tu r in g i n d u s t r i e s . The r e a s o n was t h a t s p e c i f y i n g t h e e q u a ti o n s e x p l a i n i n g t h e tim e
w orked we d i d n o t t a k e i n t o a o o o u n t t h a t t h e num ber o f w o rk in g d a y s m ig h t c h a n g e . Thus we h a d t o a llo w f o r two a d d i t i o n a l f r e e S a t u r d a y s , i . e . t h e ( c o n s t a n t ) a d ju s tm e n t h a d t o a llo w f o r a d e c l i -ne i n t h e l e n g t h o f t h e w o rk in g week by a b o u t 6-7% . A d d i t i o n a l l y , we a l s o h a d t o i n tr o d u o e r e l a x a t i o n s b e c a u s e o f t h e e x p e c te d d e c l i n e o f t h e w o rk in g tim e l o s s e s due t o assum ed im provem ent i n s u p p l i e s o f m a t e r i a l s and e n e r g y . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , w ith r e g a r d t o t h e m in in g I n d u s t r y we had t o assum e t h a t t h e w o rk in g tim e o f t h e m in e rs i n f a o t was e n la r g e d i n 1982 ( b y o a 14%) b e o a u se o f t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f i n c e n t i v e s t o work a l s o on S a tu r d a y s and S u n d a y s. S e c o n d ly , t h e p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n s m e n tio n e d p r e v i o u s l y do n o t t a k e f u l l y i n t o a c c o u n t t h e im p a c t o f i m p o r ts c o n s t r a i n t s , o r g e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , o f t h e b o t t l e - n e c k s g e n e r a t i n g raw m a t e r i a l and e n e rg y s u p p l i e s c o n s t r a i n t s we mean b o t h t h e d i r e c t ( d e -d i n e o f o u t p u t ) and i n d i r e c t im p a c t r e s u l t i n g from f o ro e d s u b s t i t u t i o n f o r i n f e r i o r raw m a t e r i a l s e t o . ( d e c l i n e o f e f f i -c i e n -c y , d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f q u a l i t y o f p r o d u o t s ) . To make a llo w a n -c e s f o r t h i s im p a c t we had t o add c o n s t a n t a d ju s t m e n t s t o t h e p ro d u c -t i o n f u n c -t i o n s . T h is h e lp e d -t o re d u c e -t h e o v e r e s -t im a -t e d l e v e l s o f n e t o u tp u t i n t h e p e r i o d s w ith p r e v a i l i n g d e o l i n e o f p r o d u c t i o n and t o o o r r e c t u p w ards t h e p r e d i c t e d n e t o u tp u t l e v e l s f o r t h e y e a r s o f r e c o v e r y 1984-1985 t o a llo w f o r e x p e o te d e f f i c i e n c y i n -c r e a s e i n t h o s e y e a r s . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , o o n s ta n t a d ju s tm e n ts o f t h e o p p o s i t e s i g n h a v e t o be add ed t o t h o s e e q u a t i o n s w hich t r a n s -form n e t o u tp u t t o t h e g r o s s o u t p u t , t o com pensate f o r t h e e f f i -c ie n -c y i n -c r e a s e , i . e . f o r d e -c r e a s e i n m a t e r i a l ( u n i t ) i n p u t s b e in g t h e oom ponent o f t h e g r o s s o u t p u t i n d l o a t o r . The in d u c e d c h a n g e s i n e f f i c i e n c y w ere d i f f e r e n t i a t e d m o s tly a c c o r d in g t o s p e c i f i c a s -s u m p tio n -s w ith r e g a r d t o t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f im p o r te d ra w - and s e m i - f l n i s h e d m a t e r i a l s . T h is l e a d s u s t o t h e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f v a r i a n t s d i s t i n g u i s h e d f o r t h e f o r e i g n t r a d e .
The assu m p tio n s w ith r e g a r d t o t h e f o r e i g n t r a d e s e o t o r a r e s i m i l a r t o t h o s e made by t h e o e n t r a l p l a n ,a n d t h e y e n v is a g e t h e r e a re l i k e l y t o h ap p en t h r e e d i f f e r e n t s i t u a t i o n s . I n t h e f i r s t c a s e t h e y a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by n e g l i g i b l e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f a c q u i r i n g new c r e d i t s , c o n t i n u a t i o n o f r e s t r i c t i o n s by some W e ste rn g o v e rn -m en ts, s e c o n d ly - a n o r -m a l i s a t i o n o f t h e f l n a n o i a l f o r e i g n r e l a -t i o n s , i . e . o f o o n o lu d ln g a g re e m e n -ts w hioh w ould a llo w -t o p o s -tp o n e t h e rep a y m en t o f t h e m ain body o f c r e d i t s and a s u b s t a n t i a l p a r t o f t h e I n t e r e s t r a t e s . The t h i r d o a s e i s o p t l m i s t i o i n t h a t new ( n o t o n ly r e f i n a n c i n g ) o r e d l t s w i l l b e a v a i l a b l e from t h e h a rd o u r re n o y a r e a s n o t l e s s t h a n h a l f a b i l l i o n o f d o l l a r s a y e a r , w hich i s 1 /4 o f t h a t sum w hioh h a s b e e n e s ti m a t e d a s a minimum t o r e s t o r e t h e f u l l u t i l i s a t i o n o f t h e e x i s t i n g o a p a o l t l e e ( i f t h i s stun i s s p e n t on t h e i n o r e a s e d im p o r ts o f raw m a t e r i a l s , e n e rg y and s p a r e p a r t s ) . I n a l l t h e ab ove v a r i a n t s , t h e c o n t i n u a -t i o n o f -t h e s u p p l i e s o f raw m a -t e r i a l s from t h e USSR on o r e d i t te r m s was a ssu m e d .
I t m ust b e n o te d t h a t o u r a s s u m p tio n s d i f f e r from t h o s e o f t h e o e n t r a l p l a n p r o p o s a l i n t h a t we a n a ly s e t h e o p t io n s w ith r e g a r d t o t h e i m p o r ts from n o n - s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s i n a much w id e r r a n g e , w hich d o e s n o t seem u n r e a l i s t i o . The o e n t r a l p l a n n e r assum es t h a t t h e t o t a l volum e o f I m p o r ts m ig h t I n o r e a s e w i t h i n a 3 - y e a r p e r i o d b e tw e e n 11 and 17%, t h e v a r i a n t in - b e tw e e n b e in g 16%* O ur medium v a r i a n t was p r a o t i c a l l y t h e sam e, w h ereas we h a v e b e e n a n a l y s i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f Im p o r ts I n c r e a s e by 8% a t minimum and 22% 'a t maximum^.
I t h a s t o b e em p h a size d t h a t t h e f i g u r e s shown i n G raph 1 , w hich I l l u s t r a t e s t h e f o r e c a s t s o f i m p o r t s , r e f l e o t t o a g r e a t e x t e n t t h e im p a c t o f t h e f o r e i g n t r a d e - d o m e s tic o u t p u t b o t t l e -n e c k m u l t i p l i e r . The a s s u m p tio n was made t h a t an i n o r e a s e i n im p o r ts e s p e c i a l l y from t h e h a rd c u r r e n c y a r e a s w i l l a llo w t o i n c r e a s e , a f t e r a p e r i o d o f a d ju s t m e n t , t h e o a p a o it y u t i l i z a t i o n t h u s i n c r e a s i n g t h e t o t a l o u t p u t - n u c h - q u i c k e r - t h a n i t - w o u l d be^ p r e d i c t e d from t h e c l a s s i c a l p r o d u o tio n f u n c t i o n s . The o e n t r a l p l a n n e r h a s assum ed a n e l a s t i c i t y o f p r o d u o tio n w ith r e g a r d t o
2
Our e a r l i e r f o r e c a s t p r e s e n te d l a s t Septem ber b a sed r a th e r ? 8k 2 a l o u l ?t o r comP u t a t i o n s y i e l d e d an e x p e c te d i n c r e a s e by i o # . See« W e l f e , 1982.
Im p o rte o l o s e t o 1 , w h e re as we h a v e b e e n more o p t i m i s t i c , psaum - i n g i t t o b e somewhat h ig h e r * T h is oan b e s e e n i n G raph 2 . I t shows g ro w th o f t h e n e t m a t e r i a l p ro d u o t (HUP). The lo w e s t ▼ arlan t i n d i o a t e a an l n o r e a a e o f HUP by 9% and t h e h lg h e a t one by 24% w i t h in t h e 3 - y e a r p e r i o d (1985 a g a i n s t 1 9 8 2 ), w h ereas th e o e n t r a l p l a n n e r assum ed an ln o r e a a e b e tw e en 11 and 18%. The e f f i - o ie n o y a s s u m p tio n s d i f f e r e e p e o i a l l y w ith r e s p e o t t o t h e medium an d o p t i m i a t l o v e r a i o n s . G raph 1 I n g e n e r a l , i t l a a rg u e d t h a t t h e l n o r e a a e i n o u tp u t o f f e r s a p o s s i b i l i t y o f e x p a n d in g e x p o r t s . I n t h i s r e e p e o t ,we- a r e n o t a a o p t i m i a t l o a s i t m ig h t b e o r i g i n a l l y e x p e c te d . We h a v e t o ackn o w led g e t h e te n d e n o y o f t h e c e n t r a l p l a n n e r t o i n c r e a s e t h e " p r o p e n s it y " t o e x p o r t by m eans o f s t r e n g t h e n i n g t h e m o ti v a t i o n o f e x p o r t i n g l n d u e t r l e s , c h a n g i n g ex ch an g e r a t e s e to * On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e p e r s i s t i n g c o n s t r a i n t s i n t h e w o rld m a r k e ts , e s p e c i a l l y t h e h a rd c u r r e n c y a r e a s , h a v e t o b e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t. T h is
G raph 2 m ig h t p r e v e n t from e x p a n d in g t h e e x p o r te a t v e r y h ig h r a t e e . Thus, t h e e x p e c te d r a t e s o f e x p o r t g ro w th a p p e a re d t o h e aomewhat lo w e r o r o n ly s l i g h t l y above t h e r a t e s o f g ro w th o f o u tp u t.A c c o r d -i n g t o t h e p e s s -i m -i s t -i c v e r s -i o n t h a t e x p o r t s w -i l l l n o r e a a e w -i t h -in th e 3 - y e a r p e r i o d by 6% t o t a l l y , w h e re as t h e NMP by 10%| i n t h e seco n d v e r s i o n by 1436 and NMP by 18% {while i n t h e o p t i m i e t i o v a r i a n t by 24%, w h ich i s s l i g h t l y abo v e t h e i n c r e a s e o f t h e NMP.
ТЬеве f i g u r e s show t h a t a c c o r d in g t o o u r p r e v i o u s l y s t a t e d a s s u m p tio n s t h e e x p o r t g ro w th i s i n e a o h o a s e h i g h e r t h a n t h e
growth o f im port and t h i s means a p o s i t i v e b a la n c e o f tr a d e i s e x p e c te d ( s e e Graph 1 ) . I n 1 982, f o r t h e f i r s t tim e , a p o s i t i v e b a la n c e o f tr a d e was o b ta in e d and t h i s r e s u l t w i l l probably
con-t in u e u n con-t i l 1 985. More s p e c i f i c a l l y , con-t h i s i s a r e s u l con-t o f f o r e ig n tr a d e w ith n o n - s o c i a l i e t o o u n t r ie s . With reg a rd to s o o i a l i s t coun-t r i e s , coun-th e n e g a coun-t iv e b a la n c e o f coun-tr a d e w icoun-th coun-th e USSR i s e x p e o coun-te d (a n in c r e a s e o f d e l i v e r i e s on c r e d it t e r m s ). The o p t im i s t i o v a r ia n t y i e l d s lo w e r l e v e l s o f C p o s it iv e ) b a la n c e o f tr a d e than th e o th e r v a r ia n t s and t h i s is ' due to th e ( o p t i m is t ic ) a ssu m p tion th a t new (m o s tly r e f in a n c in g ) c r e d i t s w i l l be a v a i l a b l e . The e v a lu a tio n o f th e e x p e c te d p o s i t i v e b a la n c e o f tr a d e may be q u it e d i f e r e i f i e d . I t i s p o s i t i v e from th e p o in t o f v iew o f r e s t o r in g th e c r e d i t a b i - l i t y a g a in s t th e W estern c r e d it o r s as i t c r e a t e s an a b i l i t y t o m a in ta in th e f o r e ig n debt s e r v i c e . On th e o th e r hand, i t i s not to o o p t im i s t i c as i t narrows th e p o t e n t i a l u t i l i z a t i o n o f th e n a t io n a l income b r in g in g th e r a t e s o f growth o f th e n a t io n a l income d i s t r i b u t e d XG b elow th e income produced X. T h is i s shown in Graph 2 f o r a l l th e th r e e v a r ia n t s . The t h ir d v a r ia n t i s th e most o p t im i s t i c from th e l a s t p o in t o f v ie w , and i t p r e d i c t s an i n c r e a s e by 23% w ith regard t o th e n a t io n a l income d i s t r i b u t e d and 24% o r more f o r th e produced n a t io n a l income f o r th e p e r io d o f 1 9 8 3 -1 9 8 5 , whereas i n th e p e s s i m i s t i c v a r ia n t th e growth r a t e s a r e 9% and by 10% r e s p e c t i v e l y . These d i f f e r e n c e s in m acroproport i o n s show acroproporth e p o s s i b l e d i v e r s i v e p aacroproporth o f developm enacroproport due acroproport o d i f
-f e r e n t a ssu m p tio n s w ith regard t o -f o r e ig n t r a d e .
The f o r e c a s t s o f th e i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c tio n were based on s e v e -r a l assu m p tio n s w ith -reg a -rd t o th e changes i n in p u ts o f th o pro-d u c tio n f a c t o r s - employment, c a p a c i t i e s and t h e i r u t i l i z a t i o n , b e in g dependent on m a te r ia l in p u t and en erg y c o n s t r a i n t s , ih e main f a c t o r i n th e m ining in d u s t r y i s th e working t im e , i . e . b o th th e number o f em ployees and th e d u r a tio n o f t h e i r working week. An in c r e a s e i n th e w orking tim e ha3 been assumed f o r 1982 and s t a b i l i z a t i o n f o r th e n e x t y e a r s . For th e o th e r in d u s -t r i e s , w e have assumed r a -th e r a s -t a b i l i z a -t i o n o f -th e working -tim e . Thia i s a r e s u l t o f a v e r y em a il I n c r e a s e e x p e c te d i n employment and a f u r t h e r d e c r e a s e In th e a v era g e number o f hours worked. I t l a , th u s assumed t h a t th e number o f f r e e S a tu rd a y s (3 p e r month) w i l l rem ain s t a b l e o v e r th e n e x t y e a r a .
The c a p a c i t i e s m easu red by t h e f i x e d c a p i t a l l e v e l s o o n tln u e t o I n o r e a s e b o th I n I n d u s t r y and o t h e r p r o d u o tio n s e o t o r s due t o t h e Im p le m e n ta tio n o f in v e s tm e n t p r o j e c t s s t a r t e d i n t h e 7 0 's . The f o r e o a s t s a r e o l o s e i n a l l 3 v a r i a n t s - t h e f i x e d a s s e t s te n d t o grpw a t a n a n n u a l r a t e b e tw e e n 2 and 3% p e r y e a r w hioh r e s u l t s i n a n i n c r e a s e r a n g in g from 8 t o 9% w i t h in t h e 3 - y e a r p e r i o d . T h u s, we a r e f a o i n g t h e f o ll o w i n g s i t u a t i o n ! t h e em ploym ent, o r r a t h e r l a b o u r i n p u t seem s t o b e v e r y s t a b l e , w h e re a s t h e f ix e d c a p i t a l m ig h t grow by l e s s t h a n 3%. The ab ove lo n g te rm f a o t o r s i n c l u d i n g t h e em bodied t e c h n i c a l p r o g re s s ,m a y make t h e c a p a c i t i e s grow a t an a n n u a l r a t e o f no m ore t h a n 2-2*5% , and b r i n g t h e i r l e v e l s i n 1985 t o 6-8% above 1982 l e v e l . The d i f f e r e n o e b e tw e e n t h e p r e d l o t e d r a t e s o f g ro w th an d t h e e s ti m a t e d lo n g - te r m g ro w th r e s u l t s from an i n o r e a s e o f u t i l i s a t i o n o f c a p a c i t i e s and a more e f f i o i e n t u s e o f p r o d u o tio n f a o t o r s . I t m o s tly oomes from t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f b o t t l e - n e o k s due t o t h e e x p e c te d i n o r e a s e i n su p -p l i e s o f im -p o rte d and d o m e s tio raw m a t e r i a l s , s e m i - f i n la h e d goods and s p a r e p a r t s . As a o o m p o site e f f e c t , we o b t a i n a n i n o r e a s e i n t h e n e t o u tp u t o f i n d u s t r y o h a r a o t e r l z e d b y G raph 3 . The i n c r e a s e o f n e t o u tp u t i n m in in g and m a n u f a c tu r in g i n d u s t r i e s (IQ ) i s b e in g f o r e c a s t e d w i t h in t h e 3 - y e a r p e r i o d from 8 t o 20% i n s u c h a way t h a t i n 1982 a d e c l i n e o f t h e n e t o u tp u t I s assu m ed , f o r 1983 a slo w i n o r e a s e , w h e re as f o r 1984-1985 an a n n u a l • i n c r e a s e b e tw e en 5 and 8%. The r a t e s o f g ro w th a r e i n -c r e a s i n g from 2 t o . 8%*l n t h e o p t i m i s t i o v a r i a n t f o r 1 9 8 3 -1 9 8 5 . The r a t e s o f g ro w th o f g r o s s o u tp u t (QQ) a r e r a t h e r s i m i l a r t o t h o s e o f n e t o u tp u t* I t r e f l e c t s a d i f f e r e n t a s s u m p tio n th a n t h a t o f t h e c e n t r a l p l a n n e r , who p r e d i o t s t h e g r o s s o u tp u t w i l l grow s lo w e r t h a n t h e n e t o u tp u t due t o t h e assum ed h i g h e r e f f i c i e n c y i n u t i l i z a t i o n o f raw m a t e r i a l s , i n v e n t i o n o f new t e c h n o l o g ie s e t c . , a n d , t o some e x t e n t , b e c a u s e o f t h e i n c r e a s e d im p o rt o f raw m a t e r i a l s and s p a r e p a r t s from d e v e lo p e d m a rk e t e c o n o m ie s. O ur f o r e c a s t r e f l e c t s a m ore o r l e s s p e s s i m l s t i o v iew t h a t t h e e f -f i c i e n c y due t o t h o s e -f a c t o r s m ig h t grow r a t h e r s lo w ly . F i r s t o -f a l l , t h e im p a c t o f im p o rt c o n s t r a i n t s im posed i n 1981/1982 w i l l b e l o n g l a s t i n g b e c a u s e o f r e s t r i c t e d p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f s u b s t i t u -t i o n o f im p o r-te d raw m a -t e r i a l s , s p a r e p a r -t s e -t c . ; -t h e i n c r e a s e o f im p o rt o f t h e above c o m m o d ities e x p e c te d i n 1983 w i l l , f i r s t o f
G raph 3
a l l , h e lp i n r e s t o r i n g t h e s t o c k s o f I n v e n t o r i e s , and d e s p i t e t h e f o r e c a s t e d h i g h r a t e s o f g ro w th o f im p o r ts t h e i r l e v e l s i n 1985 w i l l s t i l l l i e d e e p ly below t h e 1980 l e v e l s * Prom t h i s p o i n t o f v ie w , a c e r t a i n I n c r e a s e o f e f f l o l e n o y I n I n d u s t r y o a n b e expec-t e d due expec-t o d o m e s expec-tic f a c expec-t o r s , Im p le m e n expec-ta expec-tio n o f I n n o v a expec-tio n s , I n o r e a s e o f ^ d i s c i p l i n e i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s e t c . , b u t we do n o t e x p e o t t h e r e s u l t s t o b e a t t h e l e v e l s a s h ig h a s t h o s e assum ed b y t h e o e n t r a l p la n n e r* The p ro b le m s 'I n v o lv e d i n t h e f o r e c a s t i n g o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e n a t i o n a l Inoome a r e no l e s s s e v e r e and s e r i o u s . T h e re was a p u b l i c d ls o u a s i o n w ith r e g a r d t o t h e u s e o f t h e n a t i o n a l Inoome i . e . how nu o h d e v o te t o c o n su m p tio n and t o In v e s tm e n t p u r -p o s e s , t h e co n su m e rs’ -p r o t e c t i o n -p o l lo y b e in g t h e m ost a d v o c a te d
v a r i a n t . I n t h e c e n t r a l p l a n , an a s s u m p tio n h a s b e e n made t h a t t h e In v e s tm e n t l e v e l s s h o u ld re m a in o o n s t a n t , f r o z e n a t t h e s e e m in g ly h ig h l e v e l s o f t h e y e a r 1 9 82. The s t a r t i n g p o i n t i s an o b s e r v a t i o n t h a t t h e s h a r e o f n e t in v e s tm e n t i n t h e d i s t r i -b u te d n a t i o n a l Inoome l a p r e t t y h ig h (1 8 o r 14% i n 1982 p r i o e s i n d i f f e r e n t v a r i a n t s ) . We a r e muoh l e s s o p t l m i s t i o w ith r e g a r d t o t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t o d a y 's s i t u a t i o n . The c o m p u ta tio n o f t h e s h a r e o f n e t In v e s tm e n t i n t h e n a t i o n a l Inoome ( I n t h e 1982 p r i o e s ) i s s im p ly m is l e a d i n g , a s i t o v e r e s t im a t e s t h a t s h a r e . I n f a o t a l l t h e e le m e n ts i n t h i s a o o o u n t w ere r e a l l y m ea su red i n t h e new p r i o e s o f 1982 b u t one - t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n . S e t in v e s tm e n t i s b e in g o b ta in e d by means o f d e d u o tln g t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n from t h e g r o s s in v e s tm e n t.T h e g r o s s in v e s tm e n t i s e x p re s s e d i n new 1982 p r i o e s w hich w ere m ore th a n d o u b le d , w h e re as d e p r e d a t i o n I s e x p re s s e d i n t h e " o ld " p r i c e s . The o ld p r i o e s a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y th o s e from t h e l a s t y e a r b u t d s o from t h e 7 0 s and 6 0 s . I f t h e f i x e d a s s e t s an d h e n c e t h e d e p r e c i a t i o n a r e r e v a l u a t e d n e x t y e a r and t h e l i k e l y d e f l a t o r f o r d e p r e c i a t i o n i s b e tw e en 2 . 5 2 . 8 , t h e s h a r e o f n e t i n v e s t -ment i n a d j u s t e d p r i o e s w i l l b e muoh lo w e r . A ssum ing t h a t t h e v d u e o f t h e n a t i o n d incom e w ould b e a l s o a d j u s t e d ( b e lo w ) b e c a u s e o f t h e i n o r e a s e o f d e p r e c i a t i o n , t h i s s h a r e w o d d go down t o 9% i n 1982 w h ich i s muoh I n l i n e w ith i t s e s t i m a t e i n 1977 p r i o e s . The e s t i m a t e s a o c o rd in g t o d i f f e r e n t v a r i a n t s o f f o r e c a s t a r e from 9 t o 10%. I t seem s t h a t s o o n e r o r l a t e r i t w i l l be r e d i z e d t h a t t h e I n v e s tm e n t l e v e l s a r e i n f a c t r a t h e r v e ry lo w , b r i n g i n g i n some i n d u s t r i e s t h e i r d e c a p i t a l i z a t i o n . We c a n n o t d i s r e g a r d t h e p o s s i b l e p r e s s u r e s w hioh w i l l come from many s id e s .T h e m ost im p o r ta n t i s t h e a p p a rtm e n t and communal con-s t r u c t i o n ( t h e p o o lcon-s con-s a i d t h a t t h a t g o a l o f t h e c e n t r a l p la n wacon-s one o f t h e m ost p r e f e r r e d and h l g d y a c c e p te d by t h e p o p d a t i o n ) . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , i f t h e econom ic re fo rm i s r e d l y im p lem en ted i n t h e a r e a o f t h e in v e s tm e n t d e c i s i o n m aking t h e r e m ig h t b e p r e -s -s u r e -s to w a rd -s in v e -s tm e n t i n c r e a -s e , I n t h e f i r -s t l i n e re p la c e m e n t I n v e s tm e n ts , com ing from t h e d e o e n t r d i z e d econom ic u n i t s . T h is c a n n o t n e c e s s a r i l y o c c u r a s t h e o b s e rv e d t e n d e n c ie s i n t h e d i s -t r i b u -t i o n o f s u r p l u s e a rn e d by -t h e f a c -t o r i e s show -t h a -t -t h e d i r e c -t paym ents o f " d iv id e n d " a r e p r e f e r r e d t o t h e i n c r e a s e o f " d e v e lo p -ment f u n d s " .
.
The ab o v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s J u s t i f y o u r - b e l i e f t h a t " t h e c e n t r a l p l a n n e r 's a s s u m p tio n s a r e much to o p e s s i m i s t i c * They im p ly t h a t t h e t o t a l l e v e l o f in v e s tm e n t w ould re m a in o o n s ta n t u n t i l 1985, an d t h i s m e a n s ,a llo w in g f o r a n i n o r e a s e i n t h e d i s t r i b u t e d n a t i o n a l inoom e and p a r a l e l l y d e p r e c i a t i o n , t h a t t h e s h a r e o f n e t i n -v e s tm e n t i n HID w ould f u r t h e r d e c re a s e * O ur f o r e o a s t y i e l d s
mode-r a t e ln o r e a a e o f t h e In v e s tm e n t l e v e l s w hich a llo w s f o r a n e g l i -g i b l e upw ard s h i f t i n n e t in v e s tm e n t s h a r e s (from 11 t o 12% i n 1977 p r i c e s ) , w hich seem s more r e a l i s t i c . T h is i s shown i n G raph 4-The f o r e o a s t w ith r e g a r d t o t o t a l in v e s tm e n t d i f f e r s con-s i d e r a b l y i n t h e t h r e e v a r i a n t con-s a n a ly con-s e d . The " p e s s i m i s t i c " one p r e d i c t s f u r t h e r d e o l l n e i n 1983 and a slo w i n c r e a s e i n 1984-1985 - i n t h e 3 - y e a r p e r i o d a l t o g e t h e r by 5.5%» w hioh means l e s s th a n 80% o f t h e l e v e l s a t t a i n e d i n 1 9 8 0 . The o p t i m i s t i c - a g r a d u a l i n c r e a s e - t o t a l l y by 50%, e t i l l b elo w t h e 198Ö l e v e l s , w h e re as t h e m id d le one by 27%. I t m ust b e e m p h a siz e d , h o w e v e r, t h a t t h e lo w e s t I n o r e a s e o f In v e s tm e n t l e v e l s s t i l l m eans a n e t i n o r e a s e (b y 5.2% ) and t h e f a c t u a l n e t i n c r e a s e b o th o f I n v e s tm e n ts and o f c a p a c i t i e s I s h i g h e r . F i r s t , t h e c o m p u ta tio n o f n e t In v e s tm e n t a ssu m e s, a c c o r d -i n g t o some a c c o u n ta n c y r u l e s , t h a t d e p r e c i a t i o n r a t e i s 5-6%, w h ereas t h e r e a l s o r a p p ln g s o c c u r a t a r a t e o f o n ly 1 o r 2% p e r y e a r . I n f a o t , t h e n e t o a p l t a l f o r m a tio n w i l l be h i g h e r t h a n t h e n e t in v e s tm e n ts o b ta in e d w i t h in t h e fram ew ork o f t h e above a c -co u n t* S e c o n d ly , r e p la c e m e n t in v e s tm e n ts mean t y p i o a l l y t h e i n t r o -d u c ti o n o f new te o h n o lo g y , i . e . h i g h e r p r o d u o t i v l t y , h e n c e a r e a l i n c r e a s e o f c a p a c i t i e s . T a k in g t h i s i n t o a o o o u n t t h e f i n a l p i o t u r e o f t h e o a p l t a l f o r m a tio n m ig h t b e m ore o p t i m i s t i c th a n i t l o o k s , i f one i s r e g a r d i n g p l a i n f i g u r e s . T h e re i s one a s p e o t o f t h e ' in v e s tm e n t p o l i c y w hioh i s n o t o b v io u s e n o u g h . The f a c t o -r i e s and e n t e -r p -r i s e s w i l l h a v e muoh f-reed o m In d e c id i n g upon t h e i -r in v e s tm e n t l e v e l s , e s p e c i a l l y f in a n o e d from d e p r e d a t i o n . T h is may l e a d on t h e m a o r o - s o d e to w a rd s a s im p le r e p r o d u c t i o n o f t h e e x i s t i n g I n d u s t r i d s t r u c t u r e , i n s t e a d o f p ro m o tin g I t s c h a n g e s to w a rd s t h e e x p a n s io n o f i n d u s t r i e s s p e o i d l z i n g i n e x p o r t s o r b e in g t h e b o t t l e - n e c k s . T h u s, we assum e t h a t e i t h e r d i r e o t o r i n d l r ^ o t ( v i a b a n k in g sy ste m o f f e r i n g o r e d i t s ) d l é e a t l o n o f in v e s tm e n t fu n d s w i i r t a k e p l a c e to w a rd s im p le m e n ta tio n o f t h e o e n t r d p l a n g o d s . H enoe, we assum e t h a t t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s w i l l f o ll o w t h e p l a n 's p r o p o r t i o n s e n s u r in g c a 1 /3 f o r a p a rtm e n t and com m und c o n s t r u c t i o n a n o th e r 1 /3 f o r a g r i o d t u r e , f o o d s t u f f s I n d u s t r y and o t h e r i n d u s t r i e s p r o d u c in g m a c h in e ry e q d p m e n t and m a t e r i a l s ( f e r t i l i z e r s ) f o r a g r i o d t u r e .
The p r e d i c t e d I n o r e a s e o f n e t I n v e s tm e n ts h a s an Im p a c t on th e r a t e s o f g ro w th o f p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p tio n . They a r e lo w e r th a n t h e w hole KID b u t s t i l l a llo w f o r a n I n o r e a s e i n t h e 3 - y e a r p e r i o d by 6 t o 1 8 $ . The p e s s i m i s t i c v a r i a n t p r e d i o t s a f u r t h e r d e c l i n e i n 1983, w h e re as t h e o t h e r two - a h I n c r e a s e . The n e x t two y e a r s a r e c h a r a c t e r i s e d by a n i n o r e a s e o f 4-5% i n t h e lo w e s t and 5-7*5% i n t h e h i g h e s t v a r i a n t . The a b o v s d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e e x p e o te d r a t e s o f i n o r e a s e d e p e n d , t o some e x t e n t , on t h e a s s u m p tio n s co n -c e r n i n g a g r i o u l t u r e . The f o r e o a s t b e in g b a s e d on " n o rm a l" -c o n d i-t i o n s shows an i n o r e a s e by 12% i n t h e 3 - y s a r p e r i o d . T h a t m eans t h a t i n 1985 t h e r e a l c o n su m p tio n w i l l b e a b o u t в% b elo w t h e l e v e l o f 1 980, w h e re as t h e n a t i o n a l inoom e p ro d u o e d w i l l b e d o s e t o t h e h i g h e s t a t t a i n e d l e v e l s and t h e d i s t r i b u t e d - 1 1 % b elo w t h e l e v e l o f 1 9 8 0 . P e r o a p l t a f i g u r e s w i l l b e 5 -6 p o i n t s lo w e r . T h is i s a p r e t t y p e s s i m i s t i c f o r e c a s t , e s p e c i a l l y i f one t a k e s i n t o a o c o u n t t h a t t h e r e w i l l b e no r e a l c o n su m p tio n i n o r e a s e i n t h e y e a r 1983 b u t t h e w hole I n o r e a s e w i l l b e a o o e n tu a te d I n t h e n e x t tw o y e a r s .
The o p t l m l s t l o v a r i a n t i s b a s e d on t h e Im provem ent o f t h e s i t u a t i o n i n t h e a g r i o u l t u r e . I f t h e a g r i c u l t u r e showed a con-s i d e r a b l e in o r e a a e o f i t con-s o u tp u t (w hioh i con-s h a r d t o b e l i e v e ) by 2336 w i t h in t h e 3 - y e a r p e r i o d ( i n s t e a d o f 12-17%)! th e n an i n c r e a s e o f p e r s o n a l c o n su m p tio n by 1856 and o f f o o d s t u f f s by 1656 m ig h t b e f e a s i b l e . The h o p e s a r e , h o w e v e r, n o t w e ll fo u n d e d a s t h e a n im a l p r o d u o tio n d e o ll n e d d r a m a t i c a l l y I n 1 9 8 2 .The ab ove i n o r e a s e would be f e a s i b l e i f i t w ere p o s s i b l e t o r e b u i l d t h e l i v e s t o c k and i n -o r e a s e t h e m eat p r -o d u c t i -o n i n 1 9 8 3 . T h is w -ould r e q u i r e i n c r e a s e d im p o rt o f g r a i n ( n o t f o r c o n su m p tio n b u t f o r f o d d e r ) a n d i n c r e a s e d s u p p l i e s o f f e r t i l i z e r s and p e s t l o l d e s . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e r e a r e s e v e r a l u n c e r t a i n t i e s w ith r e -g a rd t o t h e s u p p l i e s o f n o n - f o o d s t u f f s . The f o r e c a s t s a r e b a s e d on t h e a s s u m p tio n t h a t i n o r e a s e d I m p o rts m o s tly from s o c i a l i s t o o u n t r i e s w i l l a llo w t o i n o r e a s e t h e c a p a c i t y u t i l i s a t i o n o f l i g h t i n d u s t r i e s - and t h e s u p p l i e s t o t h e h o u s e h o ld s o f t e x t i l e s and a p p a r e l b y 12-2036 w i t h in t h e 3 -y e a r p e r i o d ( I n t h e b e s t c a s e - t o r e s t o r e t h e 1980 l e v e l ) . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e con-s t r a i n t con-s i n I m p o rtcon-s from d e v e lo p e d m ark e t eco n o m ies m ig h t p r e -v e n t from q u ic k r e c o v e r y o f i n d u s t r i e s p r o d u c in g d u r a b l e s - t h e
s u p p l i e s o f t h e above gooda may l n o r e a a e by 1-14% i n d i f f e r e n t v a r i a n t s ( m o a tly due t o t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f h a r d o u r r e n o y ) , I . e . I n 1985 th e y w i l l be b elo w t h e 1980 l e v e l s (b e tw e e n 65 and 85% ).
The d e c l i n e i n c o n su m p tio n l e v e l s a g a i n s t t h e 1970 l e v e l i s m o s tly due t o a e h a rp d e o r e a s e o f r e a l h o u s e h o ld e x p e n d itu r e i n 1982. I t l a e a tim a te d b e tw e en 15 and 22%. H ow ever, th o a e f i g u -r e s m ig h t b e m is le a d in g f o -r tw o -r e a a o n a . The f l r a t o n e , moat im-p o r t a n t , l a b e o a u a e o f t h e e x im-p e o ta tio n a t h a t d l s e q u i l l b r l a m ight a p re a d a l l o v e r t h e m a rk e ta and p r i o e i n o r e a a e a w ere ah ead l a 1981 a n a a la o i n 1982 - a n t i c i p a t o r y e x p e n d itu r e a h av e b een made e s p e c i a l l y f o r n o n -fo o d ite m s b u t a l s o f o r f o o d s t u f f s , t h a t i n c r e a s e d i n v e n t o r i e s o f h o u s e h o ld s . Some o f t h e p r o d u o ts b o u g h t w ere s p o i l e d b u t t h e m a j o r i t y o f them w ere b e in g u s e d o v e r 1982 d u r in g t h e p e r i o d when oonsum er goods a u p p ll e a f e l l d r a m a t i c a l l y down. T h is i n f a c t m eans t h a t t h e p r o o e s s o f d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f co n -su m p tio n b eg an a l r e a d y i n 1981.T h e r e a l e x p e n d itu r e i n 1 9 8 1 ,w hioh h av e shown a s m a ll i n o r e a s e i n c o m p a riso n t o 1 9 8 0 , i n c r e a s e d t h e in v e n t o r y l e v e l s i n t h e h o u s e h o ld s , w h ereas t h e r e a l c o n su m p tio n m ig h t h av e d e c li n e d b e tw e en 5 and 10%. I n 1 9 82, e s p e c i a l l y a f t e r t h e hu g e p r i c e I n c r e a s e w hich to o k p l a c e i n F e b r u a r y , t h i s p r o -c e s s h a s b e e n l a r g e l y s to p p e d . T h u s, t h e r e a l d e -c l i n e o f - consump-t i o n i n 1982 l a n o consump-t a s d eep a s m ig h consump-t b e i n f e r r e d from consump-t h e f i g u r e s a b o u t t h e d e o ll n e o f r e a l e x p e n d i t u r e s , i t o an be e s ti m a t e d a t 8-15% . The f i n a l re m a rk s d e a l w ith t h e f o r e o a s t s o f t h e r e m a in in g co m ponents i n t h e u s e o f t h e n a t i o n a l inoom e - t h e s o o i a l c o n -su m p tio n and t h e I n v e n to r y o h a n g e s . T h ese f o r e o a s t s a r e a weak p o i n t a s t h e e q u a ti o n s e x p l a i n i n g t h e ab o v e v a r i a b l e s c o n s t i t u t e a weak p o i n t i n o u r m o d e l. T h is I s b e c a u s e t h e e q u a tio n s e x p l a i n -in g c h a n g e s i n I n v e n t o r i e s r e v e a l h ig h p r e d i c t i o n e r r o r s , w hioh i s r a t h e r t y p i c a l a s t h e c h a n g e s i n i n v e n t o r i e s r e f l e o t h a r d l y p r e d l o t a b l e o h an g es i n b o th demand and a u p p ly . The a o o i a l c o n su m p tio n I s e x p l l o l t l y d e te rm in e d a s a r e s i d u a l , h e n c e i t a c c u m u la te s a l l t h e e r r o r s t h a t a r e i n o t h e r oom ponenta o f t h e f i n a l u s e a s w e ll a s i n HID. To a v o id t h e a m b ig u ity we t r i e d t o e x o g e n iz e t h e s o o i a l o o n su m p tlo n o b s e r v in g t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e p u b l i c d i s c u s s i o n a b o u t t h e 3 - y e a r p l a n dilem m a w h e th e r t o p ro c e e d i n t h e d i r e o t l o n t o I n c r e a s e t h e p e r s o n a l o o n su m p tlo n
o r r a t h e r th * e o o i a l c o n s u m p tio n . The outcom e o f t h i s d i s o u s e io n h a s shown t h a t t h e p u b l io p r e f e r s h i g h e r r a t e « o f g ro w th o f p e r -s o n a l t h a n e o o i a l o o n e u m p tlo n . T h is i s n o t I n l i n e w ith t h e a ssu m p tio n « we h a v e m ade. An I n c r e a s e i n t h e 3 - y e a r p e r i o d o f e o o i a l co n su m p tio n I s f o r e o a s t e d t o b e much h i g h e r I n tw o v a r i a n t s and o n ly i n t h e " o p t i m i s t i c " v a r i a n t t h e 16% I n o r e a s e i s s l i g h t l y b e lo w t h a t o f p e r s o n a l c o n su m p tio n (b y 18% ). T h is f o r e o a s t do es n o t seem r e a l i s t i o i n t h e l i g h t o f t h e a l r e a d y m e n tio n e d te n d e n -c i e s to w a rd s n a rro w in g down t h e " p r o t e -c t i v e f u n o ti o n " o f t h e s t a t e . The f o r e c a s t o o n c e m in g t h e i n v e n t o r i e s i s a n outcom e o f a d i s o u s e i o n h e ld a t t h e I n s t i t u t e o f E o o n o m e trio s and S t a t i s t l o s , U n i v e r s i t y o f Ł ó d i, b e in g я com prom ise s o l u t i o n . The f i r s t p o i n t o f view was b a s e d on t h e a a s u m p tio n t h a t i t w ould b e p o s s i b l e to re d u o e t h e d l s e q u l l i b r i a i n a s h o r t p e r i o d o f t im e . I n consum er g o ods m a rk e ts i t c a n be r e a l i s e d by means o f a p r l o e i n o r e a s e b e in g h i g h e r t h a n t h e wage and incom e i n c r e a s e s s t h i s w ould mean t h a t t h e i n v e n t o r i e s o f t h e oonsum er g o ods w i l l b e r e b u i l t f i r s t . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e i m p o r ts I n c r e a s e and e f f i c i e n c y im-p ro v e m e n ts, t h u s t h e n a r r o w in g down o f b o t t l e - n e o k s , m ig h t b r i n g an i n o r e a s e i n i n v e n t o r i e s o f raw m a t e r i a l s , u n f i n i s h e d p ro d u o -t i o n e -t c . , a s t h e r e s t o r i n g o f i n v e n t o r i e s i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e o f a sm ooth p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s and e s p e c i a l l y t h e i n o r e a s e o f in d u s -t r i a l p r o d u o ti o n . T hose who h av e b e e n a d v o c a t in g t h i s p o i n t o f view c la im t h a t a r a p i d and b i g i n c r e a s e o f i n v e n t o r i e s m ig h t be a c c e p t a b l e . T h is p o i n t o f view was r e p r e s e n t e d by W. W elfe i n a f o r e c a s t p r e p a r e d f o r t h e LINK M e e tin g , Autumn 1982. H ow ever, a f t e r s e v e r a l d i s c u s s i o n s we h a d t o t a k e i n t o a c o o u n t t h e more " p e s s i m i s t i c " p o i n t o f v iew “r e p r e s e n t e d by D r . W. J u s z o z a k . I t was b a s e d on more p e s s i m i s t i c a s s u m p tio n s w ith r e g a r d t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f o v e rc o m in g t h e d l s e q u l l i b r i a i n t h e oonsum er m a r k e ts , a s t h e in co m es te n d e d t o i n o r e a s e f a s t e r t h a n g e n e r a l l y e x p e c te d and p r i c e i n c r e a s e s w ere c o n s t r a i n e d . S e c o n d ly , w ith r e g a r d t o t h e raw m a t e r i a l s and s e m i f i n i s h e d m a t e r i a l s , i t s h o u ld b e t a k e n i n t o a o o o u n t t h a t t h e s t o c k s o f i n v e n t o r i e s a v a i l a b l e a t t h e end o f 1982 w ere r a t h e r h ig h i n c o m p a ris o n w ith t h e o u tp u t l e v e l s , and th e y d i d n o t n e c e s s a r i l y o o n t a i n t h o s e raw m a t e r i a l s w hich w ere n e e d e d f o r t h e p r o d u o tio n p r o c e s s , g i v e n t h e p r o d u c t m ix t h a t h a s b e e n a o c e p te d f o r p r o d u o ti o n . We c a n o b s e r v e som
e-t h i n g l i k e an o v e rf lo w o f s t o o k s o f raw m a t e r i a l e w hioh a r e n o t I n d i s p e n s a b l e and a t t h e same t i n e t h e r e i s a l a o k o f m a t e r i a l » t h a t a r e r e a l l y n s o e s s a r y . I f we a ssu m e , t h a t t h e eoonom lo re fo rm w i l l b e f u l l y e z e o u te d , we m ig h t e z p e o t a n e t d e e l l n e i n » to o k » o f i n v e n t o r i e s du» t o a d e c l i n e i n t h o s e w hioh a r e s t o r e d i n t h e p r o d u o ti o n s y s te m and w i l l p r o v e t o be n o t n e o e s s a r y f o r t h e f u t u -r e p -r o d u o ti o n m ix . As a r e s u l t o f t h e above d l s o u e s i o n a »low i n o r e a s e o f t o t a l I n v e n t o r i e s h a s b e e n a ssu m ed . The abo v e e o n - s t r a i n e d I n o r e a s e o f i n v e n t o r i e s made i t p o s s i b l e t o i n o r e a s e t h e I n v e s tm e n ts i n a way we d e » o rib » d b e f o r e .
Th» s i t u a t i o n i n t h e oonsum er goo d s m a r k e ts d e s e r v e s s p e o l a l a t t e n t i o n a s i t i s d i r e o t l y l i n k e d w ith t h e abo v e d i s o u s s e d p ro -blem o f I n f l a t i o n . O ur f o r e c a s t h a d b e e n p r e p a r e d i n t h a t p e r i o d when i t was b e l i e v e d t h a t f u r t h e r h ig h oonsum er g o ods p r l o e i n -c r e a s e s w ere s t i l l a h e a d (25% i n o r e a s e f o r 1963 a n n o u n -ced i n t h e p r o j e c t o f t h e o e n t r a l p l e n ) . The l a t e s t a n n o u n cem en ts o f t h e g o v ern m en t r a t h e r i n d i o a t e a d e t e r m i n a t i o n to w a rd s r e s t r i c t i n g t h e i n f l a t i o n (15% l n o r e a a e was m e n tio n e d ) a n d , a t t h e same tim e to w a r d s , i nh i b i t i n g t h e i n o r e a s e o f wages by m eans o f t h e p r e p a r e d wage r e f o r m . O ur f o r e o a s t r e f l e c t s a r a t h e r p e s s l m l s t l o p o i n t o f v ie w w ith r e g a r d t o t h e e f f l o l e n o y o f s u g g e s te d m e a s u r e s . T h is I s p a r t l y b a s e d on t h e p a s t e x p e r i e n c e w hioh s a y s t h a t I t i s e x t r e -m ely d i f f i o u l t t o f r e e z e wages o r t o o o n s t r a l n t h e i r g ro w th , e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e i n f l a t i o n a r y e n v ir o n m e n t, an d when t h e o o s t m i-n i m i z a t i o i-n p r i i-n o l p l e a d v o c a te d by t h e eoonom lo re f o r m d o e s n o t s im p ly w o rk . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , s e v e r e d d e o l s l o n s h a v e b e e n a l -r e a d y made o -r anno u n ced w hich j u s t i f y t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s t h a t t h e p r l o e i n c r e a s e s w i l l b e q u i t e c o n s i d e r a b l e .
The r e t a i l p r i o e s o f c o n su m e rs’ g o ods show t h a t t h e a v e r a g e l e v e l o f t h e i r i n c r e a s e i n 1982 was oa 100% ( t h e y d o u b l e d ) . A f u r t h e r r i s e o f 21-24% i s e x p e c te d i n 1983, s lo w in g down t o 4-6% i n 1 9 8 5 . W ith in t h e w hole 3 y e a r p e r i o d 19821985 t h e f o r e -o a s t y i e l d s an I n -o r e a s e b e tw e e n 30 and 50%.
The (e x o g e n o u s) a s s u m p tio n s we h a v e made w ith r e g a r d t o a v e r a g e wages i n d i o a t e , t h a t t h e n o m in a l Inoom es from wages i n c r e a s e b y c a 22% i n 1 9 8 3 , by c a 11% i n 1 9 84, a n d by o a 5% i n 1 985, i . e . s l i g h t l y l e s s t h a n t h e r a t e o f i n f l a t i o n . T h is means a d e c l i n e i n r e a l wage f u n d s and r e a l Incom es p r e d i o t e d a t 4-5%
l n 1983 and a s t a g n a t i o n i n 1984-1985* I t i s h a r d t o oom pąre t h e t o t a l outoom e w ith t h * r e a l in o o o « l e v e l s i n 1982 a s f o r t h i s y e a r w hioh h a s shown a d e e p d e o l i n e i n r e a l in co m e s and a y e a r b e f o r e no f i g u r e s h a v e b e e n p u b l is h e d b y t h e S t a t i s t i c a l O f f l o e . Ve o a n s t i l l a rg u e t h a t t h e r e a l in co m es m ig h t b e i n 1985 2-4% b e lo w t h e 1982 l e v e l s an d o a 20% b elo w t h e 1980 l e v e l s * The p e r o a p l t a f i g u r e s w i l l b e r e s p e c t i v e l y lo w e r* The s i t u a t i o n w i t h r e s p e o t t o t h e r e a l oonsum er e x p e n d it u r e « d i f f e r s c o n s id e r a b l y .s h o w i n g a s we m e n tio n e d a b o v e , t h a t t h e r e a l v a lu e o f e x p e n d it u r e i s e x p e o te d t o I n o r e a s e b y 618% i n d i f -f e r e n t v a r i a n t s d u r in g t h e 3 - y e a r p e r i o d 1983-1985* T h e re i s no o o n t r a d i c t l o n a s i t i s e x p e o te d t h a t t h e p r i c e i n o r e a s e w i l l r e d u c e t h e i n f l a t i o n a r y g ap ( f o r o e d s a v in g s ) t o a n e g l i g i b l e amo-u n t a ro amo-u n d 1985-1986* The p r l o e i n o r e a s e i n 1983 h i g h e r t h a n t h e e x p e o te d n o m in a l inoom e i n o r e a s e m ig h t b r i n g t h e i n f l a t i o n a r y gap ( i n r e a l te r m s ) doim i i t i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t enough ( t h e I n o r e a s e o f s u p p ly o f oonsum er goods b e in g оo n s t r a i n e d ) t o r e d u c e t h a t gap a o c u m u la te d d u r in g t h e l a s t 3 y e a r s .
The above r e s u l t s i n d l o a t e t h a t a d d i t i o n s t o s a v in g s ( i n c lu d i n g f o r c e d s a v i n g s )w i l l d e o l i n e i n r e a l te r m s d e s p i t e r e l a t i -v e l y h ig h i n t e r e s t r a t e s ( o u r r e n t b e in g 7%, l o n g - t e r m 13-15% ). The n e t r e s u l t i s t h u s p e s s i m i s t i c , sh o w in g - w hioh was p o i n t e d o u t b y mcuiy eoonom io e x p e r t s - t h a t t h e n o m in a l i n o r e a s e o f wages won d u r in g 1980-1982 was m o s tly f i c t i t i o u s a s f a c t u a l p o s s i -b i l i t i e s o f e x p e n d it u r e i n o r e a s e i n r e a l te r m s e x p r e s s e d -by co n -s t r a i n e d ( d im in i-s h e d i n 1 9 8 1 -1 9 8 3 ) -s u p p l i e -s e lm p ly d i d n o t e x i -s t . I t w i l l t a k e m ore t h a n 3 y e a r s t o r e b u i l d t h e p e r o a p l t a l e v e l o f r e a l c o n s u m p tio n ( o e r t a l n l y n o t I d e n t i o a l w ith r e g a r d t o i t s o o m p o s itlo n ) a n d many m ore t o a r r i v e a t t h e r e a l l e v e l s o f p e r s o n a l incom e ( s e e m in g ly ) a c h ie v e d i n 1981* T h is m ig h t b e f r u s t r a -t i n g b u -t i -t seem s -t o b e b e -t -t e r -t o r e c o g n i z e -t h e -t r u -t h now.
The ab ove r e s u l t s shown i n some m ore d e t a i l i n t h e a t t a o h e d t a b l e s w ere o b t a i n e d i n a s e r i e s o f c o m p u ta tio n a l games p la y e d on t h e o o m p u te r ODRA1305 i n w hioh t h e m odel W3S79 was u s e d ,c o n f r o n -t e d w ith a s e t o f a s s u m p tio n s o o n o e ra in g ex o g en o u s v a r i a b l e s a s w e ll a s t h e o h a n g e s i n s e v e r a l p a r a m e te r s r e f l e c t i n g e i t h e r ' t h e go v ern m en t a c t i o n s ( f o r I n s t a n c e p r i c e o h a n g e s) o r t h e n o t e x p l i -c i t l y s p e o i f i e d s o u r c e s o f c h a n g e ( f o r i n s t a n c e t h e c h a n g e s i n
e f f i o i e n o y o f p r o d u o tio n f a o t o r s o r o f some o f t h e i r l e v e l s , i . e . d e o l l n e i n w o rk in g tim e due t o t h e i n t r o d u o t l o n o f 2 a d d i t i o n a l f r e e S a t u r d a y s ) . T h e r e f o r e t h e s o l u t i o n s b a s e d on t h e f o r e o a s t s s h o u ld b e r e g a r d e d a s a com prom ise b e tw e e n t h e s t r u o t u r e o f t h e m odel i t s e l f and t h e e x tr a n e o u s i n f o r m a t i o n and t h e ju d g em en t b e in g a t o u r d i s p o s a l , u s e d t o o o r r e o t t h e i n i t i a l m o d e l's o u t -p u t .
The in f lo w o f new i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t h e r e a l outoom e o f eoo-nom lo a o t l v i t l e s i n 1982 and a b o u t t h e p o s s i b l e o o n s t r a i n t s I n 1983 w i l l h e l p u s t o n a rro w t h e b ro a d i n t e r v a l s w i t h i n w hioh l i e t h e 3 v a r i a n t s o f o u r f o r e o a s t - and p o s s i b l y b r i n g i t t o one b a s e l i n e f o r e o a s t . I t w i l l make i t p o s s i b l e t o s tu d y i n a o l a s s i o a l way v a r i o u s s o e n a r l o s o f t h e a n t l l n f l a t i o n a r y p o l l o y , t h e p o l l o y o f s t i m u l a t i n g g ro w th by m eans o f d o m e s tlo m e a s u re s ( e f f i o i e n o y i n o r e a s e ) o r /a n d f o r e i g n t r a d e e x p a n s io n . H ow ever, we o a n n o t b e t o o o p t l m i s t l o - t h e f o r e c a s t i n g e r r o r s m ig h t s t i l l f a i r l y ex o eed t h o s e e x p e r ie n c e d f o r s t a b i l i z e d e o o n o m le s. T a b l e 1 MODEL W3379. F o r e o a s t D e c . 1982 M a o ro p ro p o rt i o n s C a t e g o r i e s 1982 1983 1984 1985 19851982 1285 1980 X - 8 . 8 0 .3 5 .5 4 .1 110.1 8 8 .2 N a t io n a l incom e —6 .4 3 .2 8 .5 5 .3 1 1 8 .0 9 7 .0 p ro d u o ed - 3 . 7 6 .9 8 .8 6 .4 1 2 3 .6 Ю 4 .7 XG - 1 6 .9 0 .3 5 .3 3 .5 1 0 9 .4 7 9 .7 N a t io n a l incom e - 1 4 .3 3 .2 8 .9 4 .8 1 1 7 .8 8 8 .6 d i s t r i b u t e d - 1 0 .2 7 .0 8 .7 5 .7 1 2 2 .9 9 6 .8 EP - M? 3 .7 4 3 5 .1 6 5 5 .4 1 3 5 .5 8 7 • • F o r e ig n t r a d e b a la n c e 3 .3 8 8 5 .0 0 5 5 .4 9 3 .15.646 • • ( c u r r e n t p r i o e s ) 1 .6 2 2 3 .2 1 7 3 .6 8 9 3 .7 8 3 • •
T a b le 1 ( o o n td ) C a t e g o r i e s 1982 1983 1984 1985
m
1985 1980 ED E x p o r ts t o t a l - 5 . 5 - 4 . 0 - 2 . 4 - 1 .1 3 .4 ’ 5 .3 3 .7 5 .7 8 .4 3 .4 4 .8 8 .5 106.1 1 1 4 .4 1 2 4 .0 8 0 .5 8 8 .2 9 7 .2 HD I m p o r ts t o t a l - 2 7 . 0 - 2 5 .1 - 2 0 .4 - 1 . 2 3 .3 5 .1 3 .7 5 .4 8 . 0 2 .4 3 .9 7 .4 1 0 4 .9 1 1 3 .0 1 2 1 .9 6 2 .2 6 8 .7 7 8 .8 JNET N et in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s - 4 . 5 1 0 .3 2 1 .3 —6 .4 1 .6 1 7 .5 2 .7 11.1 1 4 .2 8 . 8 1 2 .5 1 6 .8 1 0 5 .2 1 2 6 .9 1 5 6 .7 5 4.1 6 1 .8 6 6 .9 PCX P r i o e d e f l a t o r f o r p r i v a t e o on eu m p tlo n 9 7 .0 9 6 .7 9 7 .0 2 3 .9 2 2 .5 2 0 .7 1 3 .2 12.1 11.1 6 .2 5 .0 3 .9 1 4 9 .0 144.1 1 2 9 .3 3 5 7 .2 3 4 4 .9 3 3 3 .8 PYPR L iv in g c o s t s In d e x 1 0 0 .7 9 1 .5 9 1 .8 2 4 .7 2 4 .4 2 2 .5 1 3 .3 1 2 .5 1 1 .4 6 .7 5 .7 4 .5 1 5 0 .6 1 4 7 .8 1 4 2 .7 3 7 5 .8 3 5 2 .0 3 4 0 .3 NANSR P r o f e s s i o n a l l y a c t i v e p e o p le ( e x c l . a g r i c u l -t u r e ) 1 2 .8 1 3 .0 1 3 .2 1 3 .4 • •MODEL W3379. F o r e o a s t D eo. 1982 MAIM PROPORTIOIS ( p r i o e s o f 1 .0 1 ,1 9 7 7 ) C a t e g o r i e s t9 8 2 1983 1984 1985 CX/XQ P r i v a t e o o n su m p tlo n I n d i s -t r i b u -t e d n a -t i o n a l inoom e 7 1 .2 7 1 .9 7 1 .6 6 9 .0 7 0 .4 6 9 .9 6 7 .8 6 8 .6 ’6 9 .1 6 8 .7 6 8 .7 6 8 .6 JHET/IO V e t in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s I n d i s t r i b u t e d n a t i o n a l incom e 1 2 .3 1 1 .2 9 .4 1 1 .5 1 1 .0 1 0 .3 1 1 .2 1 1 .3 1 0 .9 1 1 .8 12.1 1 2 .0 2»/X S h a r e o f I n d u s t r y I n n a t i o n a l inoom e 5 0 .7 5 0 .5 5 0 .4 4 9 .0 4 8 .8 4 8 .2 4 8 .9 4 8 .1 4 8 .0 4 9 .9 4 9 .0 4 8 .8 XR/X S h a r e o f a g r i c u l t u r e i n n a t i o n a l Inoome 1 5 .5 1 5 .5 1 5 .5 1 6 .8 1 6 .8 1 8 .0 1 7 .2 1 7 .9 1 8 .5 1 6 .3 1 6 .9 1 7 .7 PED/PMP Terms o f t r a d e 0 .921 0 .9 4 5 0 .9 4 2 0 .9 2 6 JM /J S h a r e o f in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s f o r p r o d u o tio n s e o t o r 5 5 .0 5 6 .0 5 8 .0 6 0 .0 JR/JM S h a re o f in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s f o r a g r i c u l t u r e 2 9 ,0 2 9 .0 29.1 2 9 .1 2 9 .1 29.1 2 9 .1 2 9 .3 2 9 .5 29.1 2 9 .5 2 9 .9 JQ/JM S h a r e o f In v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s f o r i n d u s t r y 4 6 .8 4 6 .8 4 6 .8 4 6 .9 4 6 .9 4 6 .9 4 7 .0 4 6 .8 4 6 .6 4 7 .2 4 6 .8 4 6 .8 ( J R + J Q R )/J S h a r e o f in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s f o r a g r i c u l t u r e and fo o d -s t u f f i n d u -s t r y 1 8 .2 1 8 .3 1 8 .3 1 8 .7 2 0 .0 2 0 .0 1 9 .5 2 1 .0 2 1 .1 2 0 .1 " 2 1 . 8 2 2 .1 JKM/J S h a r e o f in v e s tm e n t o u t l a y s f o r a p p a rtm e n t and oommunal c o n s t r u c t i o n 3 5 .6 3 5 .0 3 3 .6 32.1
T a V l i )
MODEL W3379. F o r e c a s t D eo. 1982 HBT PRODUCTION C a t e g o r i e s 1982 1983 1984 • I. • V.u. 1985 T9821985 19851980 X T o t a l - 8 . 8 - 3 . 7 0 .3 3 .2 6 .9 5 .5 8 .5 8 .8 4 i1 5 .3 6 .4 110.1 1 1 8 .0 1 2 3 .6 8 8 .2 9 7 .0 1 0 4 .7 x a I n d u s t r y - 5 .1 - 2 . 8 - 0 . 2 - 3 . 0 —0 .3 2 .2 5 .2 7 .1 8 .2 6 .1 7 .3 8 .1 1 0 8 .3 1 1 4 .5 1 1 9 .6 8 6 .4 9 3 .5 1 0 0 .3 XQP P u e l and pow er 9 .4 1 0 .9 1 2 .5 - 0 . 4 0 .9 1 .6 0 .2 1 .2 1 .9 3 .0 7 .8 1 .8 1 0 2 .9 2 0 7 .0 1 0 5 .4 6 8 .9 7 6 .1 7 2 .6 XQE E l e o t r o - e n g i n n e r i n g - 1 1 .3 - 9 . 3 - 7 . 5 - 1 2 .8 - 1 0 .8 - 8 . 0 8 .3 11.1 1 2 .0 7 .2 8 .3 9 .5 101.1 1 0 7 .2 1 1 2 .9 8 3 .8 9 0 .8 9 7 .5 XQM Raw m a t e r i a l - 1 1 .5 - 8 . 9 - 5 . 5 - 0 . 4 2 .4 4 .9 3 .5 4 .0 5 .1 4 .9 5 .4 6 .8 1 0 8 .2 1 1 2 .2 1 1 7 .7 8 6 .4 9 2 .2 1 0 0 .4 IQL L ig h t - 2 . 3 - 0 .1 2 .7 8 . 0 9 .8 1 1 .1 5 .1 5 .8 6 .3 5 .7 6 .2 7 .1 1 2 0 .0 1 2 3 .4 1 2 6 .4 1 0 5 .4 1 1 0 .8 1 1 6 .7 XQR Pood 9 .4 1 3 .6 1 9 .6 - 3 . 3 9 . 0 1 7 .8 4 .5 1 2 .7 1 7 .0 1 1 .8 1 5 .9 1 7 .8 1 1 2 .9 -142.4- 1 6 2 .3 6 0 .0 7 8 .6 9 4 .4 XB C o n s t r u o t i o n - 2 3 .0 - 2 0 .4 - 1 7 .7 - 5 . 7 3 .5 8 .7 - 1 . 9 7 .6 1 0 .8 5 .5 1 0 .3 1 2 .3 9 7 .6 1 2 2 .7 1 3 5 .2 5 2 .3 6 8 .1 7 7 .5m
Wiesław J u s z c z a k , Władysław Welfa________________________ T a b le 3 ( o o n t d ) C a t e g o r i e s 1982 i «V 1983 1984 1985 m i 1982 19951980 X& —6 .3 8 .6 8 .1 - 1 . 1 116.1 1 1 3 .4 A g r i o u l t u r e - 3 . 7 1 2 .0 1 5 .3 - 0 . 4 1 2 8 .6 1 2 9 .2 - 1 . 0 2 3 .8 12.1 2 .0 14 1 .5 146.1 XL 1 1 .7 0 .5 1 .1 1 .4 1 0 3 .0 1 1 9 .3 F o r e s t r y 1 1 .8 0 .5 1 .1 1 .4 1 0 3 .0 1 1 9 .3 1 1 .8 0 .5 1 .1 1 .4 1 0 3 .0 1 1 9 .3 IT - 1 0 .2 5 .4 1 2 .6 4 .5 124.1 1 0 2 .5 T r a n s p o r t and —6 .1 7 .8 1 3 .3 5 .4 1 2 8 .7 1 1 1 .2 oom m unioation - 1 . 6 8 .4 1 2 .2 6 .3 1 2 9 .3 1 1 7 .0 ZH - 1 7 .1 3 .3 2 .5 2 .7 1 0 8 .8 8 4 .5 T ra d e - 1 4 .9 4 .3 3 .6 3 .5 1 1 1 .9 8 9 .1 - 1 2 .9 4 .7 3 .9 3 .6 1 1 2 .7 9 2 .3 XPO - 1 2 .5 - 3 . 8 3 .8 5 .7 1 0 5 .5 9 3 .6 G tn e r e e o t o r s - 1 0 .5 0 .3 7 .1 7 .5 1 1 5 .8 104.1 * - 8 . 2 2 .7 9 .0 6 .4 119.1 1 1 0 .8 T a b l e 4 MODEL W3379. F o r e c a s t D eo. 1982 GROSS OUTPUT C a t e g o r i e s 1982 1983 1984 1985 m m Q - 2 . 2 - 0 . 2 3 .9 4 .1 1 0 7 .9 9 6 .0 T o t a l - 0 . 3 2 .5 6 . 0 5 .2 1 1 4 .3 1 0 3 .7 2 .0 5 .1 6 .7 6 .0 1 1 8 .9 1 1 0 .3C a t e g o r i e s 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985 Í982 19801985 QQ I n d u s t r y 0 .7 2 .6 4 .7 - 1 . 5 1 .0 3 .4 3 .7 5 .3 6 .4 4 .6 5 .7 6 .6 1 0 6 .8 1 1 2 .5 1 1 7 .2 9 6 .3 1 0 3 .3 1 0 9 .9 QQ? F u e l and pow er 1 6 .6 1 7 .5 1 8 .4 - 0 . 2 0 .5 0 .9 0 .1 0 .7 1 .0 1 .6 2 .6 1 .0 1 0 1 .5 1 0 3 .8 1 0 2 .9 1 0 6 .2 1 0 9 .4 1 0 9 .3 QQS E l e c t r o - e n g i n . - 3 . 4 2 .6 0 .7 - 1 2 .5 1 .0 - 7 . 8 8 .0 5 .3 1 1 .6 6 .9 5 .7 9 .3 101.1 1 07.1 1 1 2 .5 8 6 .0 8 8 .4 9 9 .7 QQU Raw m a t e r i a l - 5 . 5 3 .1 0 .1 - 0 . 4 2 .1 4 .2 3 .1 3 .5 4 .5 4 .3 4 .7 6 . 0 107.1 1 1 0 .6 1 1 5 .4 8 8 .4 9 3 .6 1 0 0 .9 QQL L ig h t - 1 .1 0 .8 3 .1 6 .7 8 .3 9 .4 4 .4 4 .9 5 .4 4 .9 5 .4 6 .1 1 1 6 .8 1 1 9 .7 1 2 2 .4 1 0 4 .2 1 0 8 .9 1 1 3 .8 QQR 2 .6 4 .1 6 .3 1 .8 7 .8 1 2 .5 1 .6 5 .0 7 .2 4 .4 6 .7 8 .2 4 .9 1 2 0 .8 1 3 0 .4 1 1 6 .8 1 1 4 .4 126.1 OB C o n s t r u c t io n - 1 0 . 7 —8 .5 —6 . 3 - 4 .1 2 .5 6 . 4 - 1 . 3 5 .6 8 .1 3 .9 7 .7 9 .5 9 8 .3 1 1 6 .6 1 2 5 .9 6 9 .2 8 4 .2 9 3 .1 QR A g r i o u l t u r e - 2 . 9 - 1 . 3 0 .5 4 .6 6 .7 1 1 .2 4 .6 7 .0 6 .6 2 .4 2 .7 3 .6 1 1 2 .0 1 1 7 .4 .1 2 2 .7 1 0 9 .2 1 1 6 .4 1 2 4 .0 QL F o r e s t r y 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .5 2 .6 2 .5 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 3 .0 3 .0 3 .0 1 0 8 .5 1 0 8 .6 1 0 8 .5 1 1 2.1 1 1 2 .2 112.1 QT T r a n s p o r t and oom m unloatlon - 5 . 0 - 1 . 2 2 .9 4 .7 6 .9 7 .4 1 1 .1 1 1 .8 1 0 .9 4 .1 4 .9 5 .6 1 2 1 .0 1 2 5 .2 1 2 5 .8 1 0 7 .5 1 1 5 .7 121.1
T a b le 4 ( o o n t d ) C a t e g o r i e s 1982 1983 1984 1985 19851982 19851980 QH T ra d e - 1 0 .8 i-8 .8 - 6 . 7 2 .8 3*7 4 .0 2 .1 3.1 3 .3 2 .3 3 .0 3.1 1 0 7 .5 110.1 1 1 0 .8 9 3 .1 9 7 .5 1 0 0 .4 QPO O th e r e e o t o r s - 1 2 .3 - 9 . 9 - 7 . 2 - 4 . 5 —0 .4 3 .2 4 .5 8 .4 1 0 .5 6 .7 8 .8 7 .4 1 0 6 .6 1 1 7 .5 1 2 2 .5 8 4 .9 9 6 .2 1 0 3 .3 T a b l e 5 MODEL « 3 3 7 9 . F o r e o a s t D eo. 1982 QR03S OUTPUT DEFLATORS C a t e g o r i e s 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985 T9Š2 ЖT5BÜ PQQF F u e l I n d u s t r y 2 9 7 .4 2 9 8 .9 2 9 9 .6 1 9 .7 1 7 .9 1 6 .5 1 5 .0 1 4 .2 1 3 .7 4 .7 4 .1 4 .2 144.1 1 4 0 .0 1 3 8 .0 6 0 1 .3 5 8 6 .6 57 9 .1 PQQE E l e o t r o - e n g l n . I n d u s t r y 6 5 .3 6 5 .7 6 5 .7 2 6 .6 2 3 .7 2 0 .6 15.1 1 2 .7 1 1 .2 7 .3 6 . 0 4 .8 1 5 6 .5 1 4 7 .8 1 4 0 .6 2 8 3 .3 2 6 8 .0 2 5 5 .2 PQQM Raw m a t e r i a l i n d u s t r y 8 8 .5 8 8 .9 8 8 .5 1 4 .3 1 1 .8 9 .9 1 9 .2 1 8 .4 1 7 .6 6 .5 6 .0 5 .6 145.1 1 4 0 .3 1 3 6 .4 2 9 4 .7 2 8 5 .4 2 7 7 .0 PQQL L ig h t i n d u s t r y 7 1 .6 7 2 .4 7 2 .0 1 4 .0 1 0 .2 7 .3 2 3 .4 2 2 .6 2 1 .8 9 .7 9 .1 8 .5 1 5 4 .2 1 4 7 .3 1 4 1 .9 2 8 9 .0 2 7 7 .3 2 6 6 .4 PQQR Food i n d u s t r y 6 5 .3 6 6 .6 6 6 14 3 2 .2 2 7 .4 2 3 .2 2 9 .8 2 6 .3 2 4 .1 6 . 0 1 2 .4 11.1 2 0 0 .7 1 8 1 .0 1 6 9 .9 4 2 7 .6 3 6 1 .3 3 3 8 .6 PQB C o n s t r u c t i o n - 1 0 4 .2 8 7 .7 1 0 2 .6 4 6 .5 4 9 .3 3 6 .5 2 9 .2 2 7 .0 2 3 .6 6 .0 5 .0 3 .9 2 0 0 .7 1 9 9 .0 1 7 5 .4 4 2 7 .6 3 8 9 .6 3 7 0 .6
C a t e g o r i e s 1982 1983 1984 1985 198519Ô2 m PQR 3 7 .8 3 9 .2 3 7 .2 1 0 .6 2 1 1.1 4 6 0 .7 A g r i o u l t u r e 4 0 .1 3 0 .0 3 4 .6 9 .7 1 9 2 .0 4 2 6 .2 3 9 .6 2 2 .5 3 4 .3 8 .9 1 7 9 .0 3 9 6 .0 PQL 1 2 8 .3 '4 1 . 8 4 2 .4 2 3 .0 2 4 8 .2 5 6 6 .6 F o r e s t r y 1 1 7 .2 4 5 .9 4 0 .9 2 2 .2 2 5 1 .3 5 4 5 .7 1 3 5 .8 3 1 .5 3 9 .6 2 1 .5 2 2 3.1 5 2 6 .0 PQT 4 .1 8 9 .7 1 5 .2 3 .5 2 2 6 .0 2 4 7 .3 T r a n s p o r t and 3 .8 8 5 .7 1 4 .5 2 .9 2 1 8 .7 2 3 8 .7 o o m m unloatlons 2 .6 8 4 .5 1 4 .6 2 .5 2 1 6 .7 2 3 3 .7 PQH 8 0 .3 2 4 .9 1 5 .0 2 .1 1 4 6 .6 2 9 9 .7 T ra d e 8 0 .7 2 1 .2 1 4 .0 1 .5 1 4 0 .3 2 8 7 .5 8 0 .4 1 8 .6 1 3 .7 1 .4 1 3 6 .8 2 7 9 .9 PQPO 6 2 .7 8 0 .9 4 6 .0 33.1 3 5 1 .5 61 4 .1 O th e r s 6 0 .8 7 3 .3 4 4 .3 3 3 .8 3 3 4 .7 5 7 8 .2 5 8 .8 6 7 .3 4 3 .6 3 5 .0 3 2 4 .3 55 3.1 T a b l e 6 MODEL W3 3 7 9 . P o r e o a a t D eo. 1982 AGRICULTURE C a t e g o r i e s 1982 1983 1984 1985 13851982 1ЭВ51980 ZR Met o u tp u t —6 .3 - 3 . 7 —1 .0 8 ,6 1 2 .0 2 3 .8 8 ,1 1 5 .3 12.1 - 1 .1 - 0 . 4 2 .0 116.1 1 2 8 .6 1 4 1 .5 1 1 3 .4 1 2 9 .2 1 4 6.1 QR G ro s s o u tp u t - 2 . 9 - 1 . 3 0 .5 4 .6 6 .7 1 1 .2 4 .6 7 .0 6 .6 2 .4 2 .7 3 .6 1 1 2 .0 1 1 7 .4 1 2 2 .7 1 0 9 .2 1 1 6 .4 1 2 4 .0 ORA A g r i o u l t u r e o u tp u t - 4 . 5 - 2 . 5 - 0 . 3 3 .8 6 .3 1 1 .7 4 .2 7 .1 6 .5 2 .0 2 .4 3 .3 1 1 0 .3 1 1 6 .5 1 2 2 .9 1 1 1 .0 1 2 0 .0 129.1
S Ł Wiesław J u s z c z a k . Władysław Welfe_______________________ T a b le 6 ( o o n t d ) C a t e g o r i e s 1982 1983 1984 1985 19851982 m QRZ - 3 . 2 - 6 .2 8 .4 3 .3 105.1 9 1 .6 A nim al p r o d u o tio n 1 .2 - 5 . 6 1 5 .0 3 .2 112.1 1 0 2 .2 6 .5 1 .8 1 2 .3 4 .4 1 1 9 .4 1 1 4 .6 QRR - 5 . 4 1 1 .2 1 .5 1 . 1. 1 1 4 .2 1 3 0.1 V e g e ta b le - 5 . 2 1 5 .6 2 .0 1 .7 1 2 0 .0 1 3 6 .8 p r o d u o tio n - 5 . 3 1 9 .8 2 .4 2 .5 1 2 5 .7 1 4 3 .3 PQRZ 2 5 .3 4 0 .8 3 7 .3 1 2 .8 2 1 8.1 4 7 8 .7 A nim al p r o d u c t i o n 2 7 .8 3 1 .8 3 4 .0 1 1 .8 1 9 8 .5 442.1 d e f l a t o r 2 8 .8 2 3 .4 3 2 .8 1 0 .9 1 8 1 .7 4 0 9 .7 PQRR 4 1 .4 3 4 .6 3 1 .6 1 0 .5 1 9 5 .7 4 2 7 .6 V e g e ta b le p r o d u o tio n 4 1 .6 2 4 .2 2 6 .2 9 .4 1 7 9 .4 375.1 d e f l a t o r 3 9 .9 1 2 .5 2 6 .1 7 .7 1 5 2 .8 3 3 0 .3 PXRS 5 2 .3 3 4 .3 3 2 .9 1 1 .7 1 9 9 .3 5 0 5 .6 P r i c e d e f l a t o r s o f 5 4 .8 2 6 .8 2 9 .8 1 0 .7 182.1 4 7 0 .0 s t a t e p u r c h a s e 5 5 .8 1 9 .7 2 8 .6 9 .8 1 6 8 .9 4 3 8 .6 PCHTA 8 4 .4 2 5 .0 2 7 .6 9 .9 1 7 5 .3 5 0 6 .6 M ark et p r i c e s 8 7 .0 1 8 .8 2 4 .7 9 .0 1 6 1 .6 4 7 2 .6 d e f l a t o r 8 7 .5 1 2 .7 2 4 .0 8 . 0 1 5 0 .9 4 4 2 .4 T a b l e 7 MODEL W3S79. F o r e c a s t D eo. 1982 EXPORTS, IMPORTS C a t e g o r i e s 1982 1983 1984 1985 19851982 m ED T o t a l e x p o r t s - 5 . 5 - 4 . 0 - 2 . 4 “ 1 • 1 3 .4 5 .3 3 .7 5 .7 8 .4 3 .4 4 .8 8 .5 106.1 1 1 4 .4 1 2 4 .0 8 0 .5 8 8 .2 9 7 .2 EH E x p o r ts t o n o n - s o c i a l i s t c o u n tr y - 1 6 .8 - 1 4 .2 - 1 1 .2 - 1 . 4 2 .0 3 .8 1 4 .4 1 6 .4 1 8 .4 1 4 .9 1 3 .6 1 6 .6 1 2 9 .5 1 3 4 .8 1 4 3 .3 8 2 .2 8 8 .5 9 7 .4
