Preparing to meet the coastal challanges of the 21st century - World Coast Conference 1993

PREPARING TO MEET THE COASTAL CHALLENGES

OF THE 2IST CENTURY

CONFERENCE REPORT

World Coast Conference 1993

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change April 1994

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This Conference Report, which synthesizesthe views, experiencesand approachesof the participantsto the World Coast Conference 1993,is intended as a contribution to, and for considerationby, the United Nations Conference on the Sustainable Development of Smal!IslandDeveloping States,the United Nations Commission on SustainableDevelopment, and the

Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a FrameworkConvention on Climate Change. It is also offered assupporting material for consideration by the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change, towards its SecondAssessmentReport.This Conference Report has not been subjectedto the formal review processesof the IPCC,nor any of the other organizations mentioned.

The World Coast Conference 1993 was conducted under auspicesof the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (lPCC)and sponsored by the international and regional organizations:the International Geosphere-BiosphereProgramme (lGBP),the

International Union of GeologicalSciences(IUGS),the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission(IOC/UNESCO),the United Nations Educational,Scientificand CulturalOrganization (UNESCO),the World ConservationUnion(IUCN), the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP),the United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP),the World Bank (WB),the Commissionof the EuropeanCommunities (CEC),and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The preparatory workshops andthe organization of the World CoastConference would not have been possiblewithout thesupport provided by the Governmentsof Australia,Japan,the Netherlands,the United Kingdom,Swedenand the United Statesof America.

Preparing to meet the coastal

challenges of the 21

st century

CONFERENCE REPORT

World Coast Conference 1993 Noordwijk, The Netherlands 1-5 November 1993

Prologue

The possibility that emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere might lead to a significant change in elimate has been recognized for a long time by the scientific community as a challenging issue for research. The first truly global elimate model that addressed this issue, developed by S. Manabe and co-workers at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton Universiry, was presented just about 20 years ago. The change in the global mean temperature that would occur due to a doubling of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was then estimated to about 3

oe.

Since then the work of an increasing number of the world's best theoretical climatologists has profoundly increased our understanding of the global interactions that we need to consider in analyses of this kind. The most likelyvalue for the global change in temperature, however, has remained about the same throughout these 20 years, but now we understand much better the uncertainty and limitations of such model computations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), in assessingthe scientific literature on the subject has therefore assigned a range, 1.5 - 4.5

oe.

The facts that about 160countries signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change at the UNCED meeting in Rio in 1992,and also that more than 50 countries have now ratifiedit,means that the elimate change issue has been recognized by the world, although the speed with which it will occur and its more specific impacts are still not weil understood. The Convention came into force 21 March 1994and a first meeting of the Parties to the Convention will be held in Berlin in March/April 1995.

To implement the objectives of the Convention,cc •••• to achieve stabilization of greenhouse concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the elimate systern",however, will not be easy and will certainly take time.Efforts to curb emissions of greenhouse gases have so far been very modest.Thorough analysisof both the impacts of elimate change and waysand means to adapt to some changes that may be unavoidable are required in order to reach international agreements on more far-reaching efforts. Undoubtedly the rise of sea levelthat would be associated with a change of elimate and its impact on the coastal zone is one of the most important issues need our careful attention. The fact that a large part of the worlds' population lives in the vicinity of the coast adds further justification to address this problem with some urgency.

It is important that conferences dealing with sustainable development of natural resources and impacts of elimate change do not become exclusiveexercises for the scientific community. Rather, there is a need that scientists, politicians and people directly concerned with coastal development and proteetion get together and learn to appreciate fully each other's knowledge and views.Only in this way can effectiveand timely measures be developed.

The World Coast Conference 1993,arranged bythe Government of the Netherlands. indeed was a major and very successfulconference to address such objectives.There will certainly be a need for many other conferences of this kind addressing other sectors of societythat may be threatened by the impacts of elimate change. The experience gained during the World Coast Conference 1993will then be most useful, but above all, a further step towards effectivecoastal management has been taken, which of course also is of great importance in itself. I wish to express my sineere thanks to the Government of the Netherlands and all individuals who made the conference into a success. Stockholm, March 1994

Bert Bolin

Preface

For millennia, coastalzonesoftheworld havebeen majorcenters ofhuman populations. Coastalwaters servedasmany oftheprimaryroutes

of transportation andcommunication among these population centers.Despite exchanges amongverydifferentcultures overthe years,

enormous differences still existamongcoastalsocieties.Over thepasttwo years,coastal RiodeJaneiro,NewOrleans,Tsukuba and

Noordwijk have been thesettingsfor important advances incoastalzone management.At the 1992Earth Summitin Rio, amajor stepwas

taken towardachieving the goal of globalsustainable development.International cooperationwasidentified clearly as anessential ingredient.

Concerning coastal zone management, participants of theEarth Summit noted that"... aglobal conference toexchange experience in the field could be held before 1994."

And it happened! InNew Orleans, TsukubaandNoordwijkintense communications took placeamong representatives ofover 90 coastal

nations.This seriesof meetings served tobridgethe gap between the goalsofUNCED and theidentification ofspecific actionsthat need tobe

taken by international and national governmentaland non-governmental organizationsto achieve them.The EarthSummit documented the

trendsof the continued deterioration of ecosystemsand clearlyidentified the need for environmental proteetion tobeconsideredasan integral component of economie development.Toward thisend, Agenda21 recommended the need to"...improveor restructure the decision-making processso that consideration of socio-economieand environmental issuesisfullyintegratedand a broader range of public

participationassured."These ideaswere among the key issuesthat were addressed for coastal areas by the WCC'93.Becauseof its large

potential impact,elimate change is aparticularlyimportant issue for the management of coastal zones. Integration of the effectsof elimate change into the coastal management processis difficult duethelarge uncertainties and long timescales involved. However,proactive management toprevent problems,rather than reactive actionsto correct them, is clearly thepreferred approach.

During theWCC'93,the exchangeofinformation among participatingnationsand organizationswasrecognized as simplyone step in a much larger process- theeducation and training of the relevantstakeholders in integrated coastal zone management (ICZM)world-wide.

Therefore, trainingand institutional capacity-building receivedsignificant attention. Even though large differences exist among coastal nations, the development of common conceptsand methodologiesfor ICZM could contribute significantly to building global capacities. This

idea is demonstrated, for example, by the continuing effort toestablish a common framework to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas to the effectsof elimate change.

With the goals of the Earth Summit in mind, we acknowledge the tremendous challenge to attain healthyand productive livesin harmony

with nature, especiallyfor people living in denselypopulated coastal areas.Improvements in human settlements,particularlyin shelter, safe drinking water,and waste disposal areamong the essential elements needed to meet the developmental and environmental needs of present and future generations. The fulfillment of these needs dependson the development and implementation of integrated coastal zone management. We hope that results of the WCC'93 contribute to our continued efforts to attain these critical goals.

We acknowledge all delegations ofstates and organizations, governmental and non-governmental. who prepared for and participated in the process of exchanging experiences and ideas. The information on coastal issuesthat was submitted and presented to the pre-Conference Workshops and to the Conferencewas overwhelming in number and inspiring in content. It rejlects the increasinginterest of all who are involved and responsiblefor understanding and managing thecoastal areasof the World. Synthesizing the information content of all thesecontributions objectively was difficult. Although this ConferenceReport isan attempt to do so, werealizethat the underlying contributions embrace thewealth of information: the present state of the art.The integralcontributions to the Conference therefore will bemade available in proceedingsfor all concerned.

Wespeciallyacknowledge withgratitude the support of allwho haveparticipated in the effortsofdrafting the report:Martha Crawford, Frank Hoozemans, RichardKlein, Ben Mieremet, RobbertMisdorp. RobertNicholls, Katie Ries,[ulian Spradley, Marcel Stive, Leo deVrees, Suzie

Westmacott; and reviewed thereport: Mohammed Ali (Maldives), Christian Auger (France), LarryAwosika (Nigeria), FéDomingo (Philippines), Danny Elder(IUCN), Mohammed El-Raey (Egypt), Victor Gallardo (Chile), Lorenzo Gómez-Mórin (Mexico), Fazlul Huq (Bangladesh), Patricio [erez(Nicaragua), Lakshmikant [oshi (India), Chalapan Kaluwin (SPREP), Robert Kay(Australia), Robertvan Lierop(Vanuatu), Leonard Nurse (Barbados), [acub Rais(Indonesia), David Richardson (United Kingdom), Horst Sterr(Germany), Ian Stewart (New Zealand) and we sincerely appreciate the support oftheIPCC, the efforts of itschairman BertBolin and PierVellinga.

Washington,Ibaraki and The Hague,March 1994 Charles N. Ehler, NOAA U.5.A.

Chairman of thePre-Conferenceon the Western HemisphereWorkshop

Nobuo Mimura, Ibaraki University Japan Chairman of the Pre-Conference on the Eastern Hemisphere Workshop Luitzen Bijlsma, Rijkswaterstaat The Netherlands

Chairman oftheOrganizing Committee of the

Contents

Prologue Preface

1. Introduetion

1.1Background

1.2TheWorldCoastConference 1.3The Conference Report

9 9 9

la

2. The urgency and benefits

Challenges forIntegrated CoastalZone Management

13 2.1Introduetion 2.2The Urgency 2.3Vulnerability 2.4 The Benefits 2.5Conclusions 13 13 16 19 23 3. The elements andobstacles

A survey of Integrated Coastal ZoneManagement experiences

25 3.1 Introduetion 3.2 The Elements 3.3 Experiences 3.4 The Obstacles 3.5 Conclusions 25 25 26 37 39 4. Buildingcapabilities \'

Opportunities for strengthening Integrated Coastal Zone Management

41

4.1 Introduetion

4.2 Strengthening International Responses 4.3 Strengthening National Responses

41 41

46 Appendices

I Vulnerability Assessment Case Studies 11 Coastal Zone Management Case Studies III InternationalOrganizations and ICZM References

List of figures

Figure 1.1 The world's coastal zones face amulti-faceted challenge. Figure 2.1 Population projections

Figure 2.2 The IPCC's projections of globalsealevelrise

Figure 2.3 Histograms showing the rates of vertical changes in relative sealevel

Figure 3.1 Horizontal and vertical institutional integration

Figure 3.2 The cyclicnature of ICZM List of tables Table 2.1 Table 2.2 9 14 16 17 26 32

TheWorld'slargest cities, year 2000

Impactsofaone metre riseinsealevel, aggregatedresults

14 19 List of exhibits

Exhibit1.1 Preamble toWCC'93 Conference Statement Exhibit2.1 Exhibit2.2 Exhibit2.3 Exhibit2.4 Exhibit3.1 Exhibit3.2 Exhibit3.3 Exhibit3.4 Exhibit3.5 Exhibit3.6 Exhibit3.7 Exhibit4.1 Exhibit 4.2 Exhibit4.3 Exhibit 4.4

Examplesoftrade-offsincoastal management

Comparison ofthe impacts ofchanges instorm intensityandsealevel rise inthe Netherlands Integratedversus sectoralcoastalzone management

WCC'93 Conference StatementonUrgency and Benefits Steps in theICZMprocess

Framework foranalysis for ICZM

Bangladesh: towards aparticipatory approach Indonesia: towardsintegrated planning

The Netherlands: policycyclestowardssustainable development Ecuador:towardsICZM through technical capacitybuilding WCC'93 ConferenceStatementon Elements and Obstacles WCC'93ConferenceStatement on Building ICZM capabilities UN initiative oneducation and training needs

The Netherlands: Information forshoreline planningand management Suggestedschedulefor future activities

12 15 18 20 24 27 28 30 34 36 38 40 42 45 47 49

Theciosureafatidal inlet byamultipurposedam(irrigatian,flood proteetion.communication and landrec/amationJby themen powerof 5000 peopleduring onetidsl cyc/e.

Preparing to meet the coastal challenges of the 21 st century

1

Int

r

oduction

1.1 Background

Two-thirds of the Earth's surface is covered byoceans, one-third is land,and the transition between them is a small strip, the coastal zone. Although the coastal zone covers less than 15%of the Earth's land surface, this iswhere the majority of the world's population lives and works.

Manycoastal problems that are now being encountered worldwide have resulted from the unsustainable use and unrestricted development of coastal areas and resources. These problems include the accumulation of contaminants in coastal areas,erosion, and the rapidly increasing decline of habitats and natural resources. Population growth and associated economie developments place additional demands on coastal areas and resources, posing yet another threat to the sustainability of these areas. The impacts of unsustainable coastal development will ultimately result in the degradation of natural systems that provide proteetion against the sea, habitat for many species and food for many people,and could pose significant risks to public health.

In addition to the problems related to unsustainable coastal development, coastal zones can also be significantly affected by the impacts ofhuman-induced elimate change. One of the many anticipated effectsof elimate change is an accelerated rise in global mean sea level. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change eIPCC) estimate that over the next century the sea level will rise by 31-110 cm by the year 2100, and that this could have severe impacts on coastal areas and their resources. Wetlands are likely to be threatened, coastal erosion will increase, and coastal resources, populations and economies will be adverselyaffected.Already in the shorter term, other aspects of elimate change may have serious effects;these include changes in the frequency, intensity and patterns of extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, intense precipitation, and associated storm surges and flooding.Some coastal areas, particularly those that are frequently hit by tropical cyclones and monsoons, are already now facing significant threats posed by elimate variability, independent of elimate change.

The world's coastal zones thus face a multifaceted challenge, which will become apparent over various time scales(figure 1.1).The IPCC's systematic assessments of the vulnerability of coastal zones to elimate change and accelerated sea level rise clearly show that climate-related impacts and impacts resulting from present-day human activities in the coastal zone cannot be separated. On the contrary, elimate change and elimate variability are likelyto aggravate the impacts of unsustainable development of coastal areas and resources. In turn, theseimpacts will fu rth er exacerbate thevulnerability of coastal areas to the consequences of elimate change and associated sea level rise.

9

---+-Time

Figure1.1 The wor/d'scoastal zonesface a multifaceted challenge

1.2 The World Coast Conference

The global importance of coastal are as in terms ofboth ecological and socio-economie values is widely recognized. Many international organizations, including the IPCC, have called for action to implement strategies towards better planning and management of coastal areas and resources. In

1992, the Coastal Zone Management Subgroup of the IPCC concluded that:

In many parts of the world, the natural systems that provide proteetion against the sea are being degraded by development activities through mining for sand and coral, cutting mangroves, damming and confining the flows of rivers. and filling wetlands. Every year that countries postpone addressing these issues, they continue to increase their vulnerability to elimate change and associated sea level rise. Moreover, environmentally sound responses have lead times of several decades and longer.Thus, even though the effects of accelerating sea level rise are still decades away, NOW is the time to take action.

The importance of improving the management of coastal areas and resources is also explicitly mentioned in Chapter 17 of Agenda 21 ofthe UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED).

In response to the calls ofUNCED and the IPCC, the World Coast Conference(WCC'93)was organized by the govern-ment ofThe Netherlands (Noordwijk, 1-5 November 1993), with the following objectives:

to provide an opportunity for nations with vulnerable low-lying coastal areas and small island nations to exchange information and experiences in assessing vulnerability to elimate change and in developing coastaI zone management plans;

to contribute to the development of common concepts, techniques and tools in preparing coastal zone

10

to foster theparticipation of coastal nations that may be affected by elimate change in the global research programme; and

to stimulatediscussion on more effectivecoordination

among national, regional,internationaland

intergovernmental organizations that are assisting and

supporting nations in thedevelopment and implementation of coastalzone management program mes.

In preparation forthe WCC'93, workshops for the Western hemisphere wereheldinthe USA(New Orleans,13-16Iuly 1993), andthe Easternhemisphere in Japan(Tsukuba, 3-6 August 1993).Countrieswere encouraged to prepare contributions ontheir experiences in coastalzone

management tobe presentedat the WCC'93 or one ofthese workshops.

Elaborating on the findings of three earlier meetings heldby the Coastal Zone Management Subgroup of the IPCC (Miami, Florida, USA, 1989;Perth, Australia,1990;Margarita

Island, Venezuela,1992),the WCC'93 and its preparatory workshops focusedspecificattention ontheneed to integrate responses to long-term threats such as elimate change and

associated sealevelrise withexistingplanning and

management effortsin coastalareas.Following Chapter17 of UNCED's Agenda 21, new approaches tomarine andcoastal

zonemanagement anddevelopment are required. These

approaches will need to be precautionary andanticipatory by nature, andtheir elementswill need tobefuUyintegrated.

The WCC'93 participants includedrepresentatives ofmore than90nations, 20international organizations and23non -governmentalorganizations (NGOs). Coastal zone experts and policy makers were abletodiscusspossible means and

opportunities forstrengthening integrated coastalzone management capabilities, in preparation for the coastal

chaUengesofthe 21st century.The WCC'93 recognized that:

Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) has been identified as the most appropriateprocess to address current and long-term coastal management issues,including habitat· loss, degradation of water quality, changes in hydra logicaI cycles,depletion of coastalresources,and adaptation to sea level riseand other impacts of global elimatechange. Thus, ICZM is aneffectivevehicle foraddressing short-term developmentchaUenges,andalso enableslong-term goals to be incorporated. However, it should be noted that the WCC'93 recognized that there is no unique"recipe"for the process ofICZM; rather,it should be regardedas a range of concepts and techniquesthat can beadapted to different situationsand circumstances.

At theWCC'93,the national and international experiences and resultsofcoastal management programmes,and the results ofstudies ofthe vulnerability of coastalareasto sea level rise and other impactsofelimate changewerepresented. In addition, opportunities forcoastal planning and

Preparing to meet the coastal challenges of the21 st century

management were discussed. An analysis of the urgencyof the needto developand implement ICZM program mes now, and

of the short-and long-term benefits ofICZM, combinedwith

an improved understanding of the basic elements that com -prise an ICZMprogramme andthe obstacles thathavetobe overcomein implementing such a programme, formed the basis forthe Conference Statement that was adoptedon the

lastday of the WCC'93.This Statementreflectsthe consensus views of the participants on actions that can be takento strengthen capabilities for progressive sustainable development and integrated coastal zone management.

Four technical documents have been issued inpreparation for the WCC'93:

Haw toaccount for impacts ofelimate change in integrated coastal zone management: Concepts and toolsfor approach

and analysis;

Same considerationson the economie importance of pro-active integrated coastal zone management;

Management arrangements for the development and implementation of coastalzone management program mes; and

Synthesis of vulnerability analysis studies. Together with the contributions oftheparticipating countries,thesedocuments willalso appear inthe proceedings of the WCC'93.

Todemonstrate the importance of informationand

communication topolicymakers and coastal managers in the

design or application of integratedcoastalzone management plans or programmes, forthe WCC'93 a"Toolbox" was

prepared.The Tooibox software contains a comprehensive

bibliography of coastalzonemanagement issues, modeIsthat

include demonstrations of theuse of remote sensing capabilities,simmulation palnning and analyzing coastal

resources, and a geographical management system.

1.3 The Conference Report

This reportprovides a synthesis of theinformation (concepts, ideas and approaches)that was assembiedatthe WCC'93 and

the preparatory workshops. During the conference, consensus was reachedthat efforts to strengthen ICZM should be motivated anddevelopedby addressingtheurgency and the benefits, byidentifying elements andobstacles, and by exploring the possibilities for building capabilities. Accordingly,the contents of the Conference Statement and thisConference Report are organized along theselines.

Chapter 2dealswith the urgencyof the need for, and the benefits ofintegrated coastal zone management. The problemsbeing facedin coastal areasare described,andthe results of 46 assessmentsof thevulnerabilityof coastal areas to sealevelriseare analyzed.Theenvironmentaland

economie benefits of implementing ICZM are alsodiscussed. Basedon thedescriptions of experiencesincoastal zone

Preparing to meet the coastal challenges of the 21 st century 11

management presented at the WCC'93 and the preparatory workshops, chapter 3 describes the elements of ongoing ICZM programmes, and the obstacles that have been encountered in their design and implementation. Although the processes of ICZM described in the case studies are situation-dependent, nevertheless some commonalities between the various experiences are identified. Chapter 4 outlines the opportunities for building national and international ICZM capabilities.

Finally,the appendices to this report summarize the results of the vulnerability assessment case studies(AppendixI),coastal zone management case studies(Appendix II), and the relevant program mes of international organizations in the field ofICZM (Appendix III).

12 Preparing to meet the coastal challenges of the 21 st century

Exhibit 1.1

Preamble to WCC'93 Conference Statement

Integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) has been identified as the most appropriate process for addressing current and long-term coastal management issues, including habitat loss, degradation of water quality, changes in hydrological cycles,depletion of coastal resources,and adaptation to sea level rise and other impacts of global elimate change.Italso is a means to identify and anticipate future opportunities. Thus, ICZM is a major tooi for achieving for sustainable development in coastal states, including states with boundaries on inland seas.ICZM is consistent with Principles 1-19 of the Rio Declaration, particularly Principles 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 15 and 16 as raised during the conference.Among the international calls for ICZM:

• The UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) expressed, in Chapter 17ofAgenda 21: Programme of Action for Sustainable Development, the urgent need for coastal states to develop capabilities for ICZM and to implement national ICZM programmes;

• The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(FCCC) calls for coastal states to develop programmes for coastal zone management to address the impacts of global elimate change;

• The First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)recommended that coastal nations should implement comprehensive coastal zone management plans to reduce their vulnerability to global elimate change;

• The Alliance ofSmaU Island States(AOSIS) expressed its support for integrated coastal zone management in August 1993at the Substantive Sessionof the Preparatory Committee of the Global Conference on the Sustainable Development of Smal!Island Developing States;

• The member governments ofthe Organization for Economie Cooperation and Development (OECD) called for ICZM at all levelsof government; and

• The contracting parties to the Barcelona Convention forthe Proteetion of the Mediterranean Sea from Pollution stressed the importance of ICZM.

ICZM is also particularly relevant to the Convention on the Conservation of Biodiversity, the Convention on Wetlands ofInternational Importance Especial!yWaterfowl Habitats (RAMSAR),and other international and regional environmental agreements.

The World Coast Conference1993generated materials and stimulated discussion on integrated coastal zone management. Most coastal states have indicated their interest in developing capabilities for integrated coastal zone management. To date, however, less than one-third of coastal states have developed these capabilities.A variety of regional and international organizations(including bilateral assistance organizations) have voiced their support for measures to assist coastal states in the development of national ICZM programmes.

Participants at the WCC'93 from more than 90 nations, 20 internationalorganizations and 23 non-governmental organizations discussed actions for coastal states to undertake ICZM as theyprogress towards the year 2000. The Conference Statement is provided for the consideration of governments, institutions and organizations as they focustheir efforts to meet the coastal challenges of the 21st century.

In particular, the Conference Statement and the Conference Report,in representing the views of the participants at the WCC'93,are intended as contributions to the work of, and for consideration by,the Preparatory

Comrnittee for the Global Conference on the Sustainable Development of Smal! Island Developing States(for the conference in Barbados in April 1994),the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (for the development of its programmes), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(for its Second Assessment Report), the lntergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change(for its presentation to the fust session of the Conference of Parties to the Convention) and other relevant organizations and

institutions.

The participants,while agreeing that coastalstatesare faced with a broad range ofshort- and long-term

chaUenges,noted with particular concern the potentially severe impactsof globalelimate change, and emphasized the role of the signatoriesto theUN FrameworkConvention onClimateChange in meeting the ultimate

objective ofthat agreement,which isthestabilization of greenhousegas concentrations inthe atmosphere ata levelthat would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interferenee withthe elimate system.

Preparing to meet the coastal challenges of the 21 st century

2

The Urgency and Benefits

Challenges for Integrated Coastal Zone Management

2.1 Introduetion

Coastal areas contain some ofthe world's most diverse and productive resources. They include extensive areas of

complex andspecialized ecosystems, such as mangroves, coral reefs and seagrasses, which are highly sensitive to human intervention. These ecosystems are the souree of a significant

proportion of global food production. Moreover, they support a variety ofeconomie activities, including fisheries, tourism, recreation and transportation. In recent decades,

many coastal are ashave been heavily modified and

intensively developed, significantly increasing their vulnerability to natural coastal dynamics and predicted impacts ofglobal elimate change.

The challenge facing policy makers in coastal areas today isto

facilitate economie development, while limiting the impacts

ofsuch development on natural areas, and protecting human life, infrastructure and other support systems from external stresses. Policymakers then find themselves confronted with many day-to-day management questions, such as:

"Is itsafe to build here, or willerosion increase?"; "Isit safe toswim here, or is the water too polluted?";

"Isit safe to eat fish caught here, or do they contain too many contaminants?";

"Will there be enough fish to eat next year, or arethey

being overharvested this year?";

"Is it wise to invest in tourism development here, or will the area loseits attractiveness due to other

developments?"; and

"How to create public awareness and the involvement of local groups in resource management?"

To integrate these sectoral considerations, these questions can be rephrased as,for example:

"What isthe bestwayto manage coastal areas and their resources, while maintaining the resilience of coastal

systems?"; and,

"How can coastal areas and resources be best developed to provide desired products and services to meet human needs, while maintaining viabie and diverse ecosystems?"

In this chapter the rationale for ICZM isdiscussed in the

context ofboth short- and long-term concerns.

2.2 The Urgency

Increasing pressures on coastal areas and their resources

clearly underline the urgency of the need to start the ICZM process now. These pressures include present-day population

13

growth and economie development, resulting in competing

demands for space and resources in coastal zones, and future impacts of global elimate change, such as accelerated sealevel rise.

Population growth

Today, the population in coastal areas is equal tothe entire global population inthe 1950s. As shown in table 2.1, most of the world's largest cities are located incoastal areas. Various estimates suggest that the populations of the world's coastal zones represent 50-70% ofthe estimated 5.3 billion people alive today. There are, however, wide variations among nations in the estimated numbers ofpeople living and

working incoastal areas. In many small island nations, such

as the Maldives, virtually allthe inhabitants livein coastal areas. The proportion ofthe total population living in the coastal zones oflarger nations varies considerably. For example, only 17%ofthe total population of Kenya livesin the coastal zone, whereas two-thirds ofthe population of Norway lives within 15kmofthe sea, and in the USAthe ave rage population density of coastal counties is fivetimes greater than non-eoastal counties.

The UN median projections for population growth suggest that the world's population will reach 8.5billion bythe year 2025, and that 70%of this increase will occur in 20 of the

less-developed countries. Estimates of the future populations

ofcoastal areas varyconsiderably. UNCED's Agenda 21, Chapter 17, suggests that up to three-quarters ofthe world's population could be living within 60kmof theshoreline by

2020. World Bank experts suggest th at two-thirds ofthe population of developing countries (3.7billion) isexpected to

beliving along thecoast bythe end of this century (seealso figure 2.1).

Economie development and competing demands

In addition to population growth, coastal areas are also facing

unprecedented pressure on theeconomie development of their resources. For instance, tourism represents an important and growing activity in coastal regions. Tourism, in fact,

could be called the world's largest single industry. Estimates

indicate that itaccounts forat least 5% of the combined

Gross National Products (GNP's) of all nations. In the Caribbean, tourism helps tosupport theeconomies and is

estimated to contribute about 43% of the region's combined GNP. The Galapagos Islands generate some US$ 700,000 per

year from tourism and estimates suggest that this could rise to

US$ 25 million. However, great care must be taken in planning for and managing tourism development, to avoid

"killing thegoose that laysthe golden eggs". In most coastal

nations there areincreasing demands forcoastal sitesfor tourism development; and policymakers are facing amajor challenge inmeeting demands while protecting the quality of

the environment. Abitter lesson learnt by several

Mediterranean andAsian coastal nations isth at once the

quality ofthe environment declines, tourism revenues decline

as well. Once the reputation of an area islost, itisextremely

14 _{Preparing to meet the coastal challenges of the 21st century}

Table 2

.

1 The world's largest eities, year 2000 (populat

i

on

in millions)

Rank Agglomeration Country 1970 1985 2000 1970-2000

1 Mexico City Mexico 9.12 17.30 25.82 16.70

2 Sao Paolo Brazil 8.22 15.88 23.97 15.75

I()\L ik ohar-ia Japan 1 91 ]" _-,

( .!cutta India ~I' 0<.1 {' ~ 9 1

(.rl'l,er B011lb,1\ India 598 ,00 ] f-00 ).% {1 \:.:\\ 'to.k _{LTSA 6.29} ) bl , & 0.)] Sh lrgh'lI China II l I] 4(1 I~~(l 284 ~

_"

l l'..or .a 5.., 9 Tehran Iran 3.29 7.52 13.58 10.29 ) _F10de Janeiro Brazil - I II Iakarta lndonesia 448 12 Delhi India 3.64 7.40 13.24 9.60

13 Bucnos Aires Argentma 8.55

14 Karacht Pakistan 3.14

15 Beijing China 8.29 9.25 11.17 8.29

16 Dhaka Bangladesh 1.54

17 Cairo/Giza Egypt 5.69 7.69 11.13 5.44

IQ _{Manila/Quezon Philippines 3.60} )i

4-.9 Los Angeles USA 8.43 10.0::> 1 .99 2.::>6

20 Bangkok Thailand 3.27 6.07 h,II 144 _I London UK 10.59 I().jc) I1., 0.08 L Osaka/Kobe Japan 7.61 S 4 lj '- 88 23 Moscow Russia 7.07 8.97 10.40 3.33 Cl stal cities Souree: UN (1987).

AM =America's,North,Middle andSouthAmerica

EU =Europe includinng Russia

AF =Alricaincluding Gull States AS =Asia

IS =IslandsStates:Caraibian,Atlantic,Indian

and Pacific ocean

1=people in riskzone at present (1990) 2 = peoplein riskzone atpresent+1m SLR

3=people inriskzone atpresent+1m SLR+populationgrowth(1990·2020)

A 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5

J

1,0

I1

0,5

°

0 _~ 0 0 0 0 '" '" N '" N ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ ~ N N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -c « B 250 200 150 100

-.11

6 4 50 2

II1II

°

~ IS

°

1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 AM EU AF AS IS

Totalpopulationin1990 and 2020(inbillion) Numberol People(in millions)

Figure2.1 Population projedions: (A)total world populetion; (B)peoplein coastal risk zones.

Preparing to meetthe coastal challenges of the21stcentury

Arecentstudy on international fisheries showsthat more than 100 million people,directlyor indirectly,depend on fisheriesfor their livelihood. Worldwide,95% ofall marine fish harvests isderived fromcoastalwaters. Theglobal fish catch isclose to the estimatedsustainable yield. Fisheriesare important tothefoodsecurity ofnations.Fish is amajor

souree ofanimal protein.Among the 40 countriesthat rank highest in per capitaconsumption of marine sourees of

protein, all but onearedeveloping nations. Insome cases

there maybe untapped capturefisheriespotential. Many

regional fisherieshowever, show signs of overharvesting. FAO data suggest that 19 fishing zones areabove the lower limit of

estimatedsustainable yield.Coastalwetlands (mangroves, intertidal areas and coral ecosystems)are important breeding grounds for coastal fishspecies.These wetlands, however, are lost at an alarming rate.Decline rates of more than 1%per year are reported for manycoastal wetlands, due to conversion to aquaculture,coastal erosion, pollution, land reclamation and harbour development.Conserving habitats and breeding grounds,and managing the foodsupply from living resources and harvesting fromecosystemsis, therefore, acritical task for nations and international cooperating bodies. There is almost no resilience and anylosscan disrupt local(subsistence)communities.

Oil and gas development in coastal areas,both onshoreand offshore, has been weil established forsome 100years. In ten

15

yearstime(1978-1988),there hasbeen a 27%increase in oil production and a 20%increase in gasproduction from coastal areas, andsubstantial proven reserveshave been discovered.Associatedwith all formsof energy development in coastal zonesthere isa corresponding increase ofharbour facilities,oil and gasprocessing, support servicesand related infrastructures. It isobviousthat there is a growing need for environmentallysound decision making,for which

environmental impact assessmentsareimportant tools. From the above it isclear that demandsforspace and resourcesare increasinglyexponential. Whenever there are conflicting interestsand competing demandsfor the use of coastal areasand resources,trade-offsare required between conservation and development,and among various development options. For example, a proposal for the development of heavy industry in an area that has the potential to be developed as a tourist resort could create conflicts among development stakeholdersthat are just as intense as choices between conservation and development. In these cases, the need for cross-sectoral cooperation is obvious, and the need for integrated coastal zone management

(ICZM)is the greatest. Unfortunately, there are many examples in which agencies involved in the planning and management of coastal areas have no linkage to the activities of the other sectors.

Exhibit 2.1 Examples of trade-offs in coastal management

Decision making on the use of natural resources needs making trade-offs.Many uses of natural resources are mutuallyexclusive. For instance, a forest cannot be cleared for logging, while at the same time being used as a nature reserve for an endangered species ofbird. The opportunity of using natural resources in one way necessarilyinvolves giving up the opportunity to use them in another way.

Some uses are not necessarily mutually exclusive,however, and with proper planning, can accommodate one another. A coral reef maysupport artisanal reef fisheries and eco-tourism, ifboth users make slight

compromises. For instance,if fishing is limited to certain species, and to fish over a certain size, then the beauty of the reef can be maintained, and itsvalue for scuba diving retained.

Anenvironmental impact assessment can be useful to identify areas where possible trade-offs or compromise may be needed.For example, consider the case ofbeach mining, in an area where sand and gravel are difficult or expensive to obtain, versus the beach erosion that is caused by such mining. In many coastal areas it is common to remove beach sand and/or gravel for construction or for liming the soil(if the sand has a high calcium carbonate content). However, the removal of the sand wil! cause erosion.Therefore, a trade-off must be made between the short-term benefits of removing the sand from the beach, versus the long-term benefits of

developing alternative sourees of supply.Taken to the extreme,on islands where tourism is an important souree of income, the continued removal ofbeach sand wil! eventuallymean that beach nourishment will be required, using sand from other,more distant sources.However,it wil! not be easy to break established traditions. Iflaws are introduced to prevent further mining, they will need to be supported bya widespread education programme to explain the reasons behind them.Careful consideration wil! also be needed for the individuals who will suffer the economie consequences of such a change in practice.

16

Global elimate change

Despite many local and national efforts, current approaches to the management of coastal zones have often proved to be insufficient to achieve sustainable development. Therefore, coastal resources are being degraded and lost in many parts of the world.Expensive sanitation, restoration and proteetion measures will be necessary to prevent further reduction of the viability oflocal communities and indigenous peoples, and to prevent further increase in the vulnerability to longer-term elimate change and associated accelerated sea level rise. In its First Assessment Report (1990), the IPCC predicted that, under its"business-as-usual"scenario, global mean sea levelwould rise by 3-10 cm per decade over the next century

(see figure 2.2).Although in its 1992Supplement the IPCC did not revise the sea level rise scenarios, it did revise its greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and discussed new information on atmospheric processes that may lower the estimates of changes in radiative forcing and mean global temperature. Such changes would lead to downward revisions in the sea level rise scenarios. However, current indications are that projections for sea level rise would still represent a significant, although uncertain, increase in the rate of sea level

A ScenarioBAU 100 50 0 2000 B :> E Q_ ~ 1000 c; 0 "" ~_C <U U C 0 u à 500 u C_<U

'"

> 'S 0-w 250 2000 Year ~ .:: -.; > ~

'"

~ IC02 60 ~ ~_<U E

""

c 30 U<U 2050 2075 2025 Year

Figute 2.2 The /peC's proiections ofglobal sea level rise. (a)Business -as-Usual scenario, with no timitsiion ofgreenhouse gas emissions. (b)

Sea level tise due to Business-as-Usual (BaU)emissions to 2030, showing that thesea level would continue to rise throughout the remainder of the century evenifthe concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were to bestsbilized bytheyear 2030.

Source:

iro

:

(1990).

Preparing to meet the coastal challenges of the 21st century

rise over that experienced during the last 100years.

Moreover, even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized or reduced, sea level rise can be expected to continue for decades or even centuries because of the long response time of the global ocean system (see figure 2.2).

It isimportant to note that anyrise in sea levelis not expected to be uniform over the globe, due to factors such as

differences in ocean circulation patterns, although these variations cannot be accurately predicted at present. In addition, verticalland movements, whether naturalor occurring as a result of human activities (such as water, gas or oil extraction), could be equal to or larger than changes in global sea level. From an ICZM perspective, it is essential that these and other non-climate-related factors are taken into account when considering responses to sea levelrise and other impacts of elimate change. Figure 2.3 shows the distribution of past changes in relative sea levelthat have occurred due to geologicalprocesses.

Sea level rise is not the only elimate change issue for coastal areas and resources. For example, changes in the frequency

and intensity of extreme events are expected, and weather patterns may shift, exposing some areas to significant changes in climate. In some coastal areas, climatic extremes such as cyclones in the Bay of Bengal or those produced by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have already caused serious economie disruption, damage to infrastructure and loss of human life, independent of global elimate change. The mechanisms that determine the frequency of occurrenee of such events, as weIl as their patterns, are poorly understood,

hindering effectiveresponses. Exhibit 2.2 shows that for The Netherlands the financial impacts of a 10%change in the intensity of storms may be worse than those of a 60 cm rise in sea level.

2.3 Vulnerability

The assessment of a country's or region's vulnerability to sea level rise is intended as a vehicle to promote long-term thinking in developing ICZM programmes. In 1991,the IPCC developed a"Common Methodology"for assessingthe vulnerability of coastal areas to sea level rise(see Appendix I). The Common Methodology specifiesthree scenario variables: global elimate change (including accelerated sea levelrise), socio-economie developments, and response options.It considers national or local development by extrapolating 30

years from the present situation. The Common Methodology stronglyencourages coastal nations to consider a full range of responseoptions, including at least the extreme optionsof complete retreat and total protection. In assessing vulnerabilitytosea level risesof 30-100 cm,theCommon Methodology considersthe potential impacts on population,

on economie,environmental andsocia! assets,and on agricultural production up to theyear 2100. These two

elimatechangescenariosapproximate the lowand high

FAULTS & FOLDS (88) 30 ~-'--'--'---'--'--'--'---r--+--,--,'--r--'--,--~--,--+~~--r--'--4-~'--+--'-~ 20

Preparing to meet the coastalchallenges of the 21st century

GLAClAL (179) TOTAL (517) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 LU VI ii: _J LU > LU _J

«

LU VI LU > ~ _J LU a: 2 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10

o

10 30 50 80 0 10 17 SUB-DUCTION (145) VOL -CANIC (39) PUMP-ING (11 ) STAB-LE (36) DEL-TAS (19)

o

10

o

10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 20 NUMBEROF RECORDS

Figure 2.3 Histograms showing theratesofvertical changes in relative sea level records from 517se/ected tide gauge stations grouped according

togeological processes.

Source:Adapted from Emery and Aubrey (1991).

Vulnerability Assessment (VA)case studies

As ofIanuary 1994,46 VA casestudies had been completed or were in progress (Appendix I). Thislevel of activity

demonstrates the considerable interest and concern worldwide regarding the potential implications of accelerated sea level rise and other impacts of elimate change for coastal areas.

Aggregation of the case studies suggeststhat significant impacts could occur on a global scale(see table 2.2).The common scenarios assume a one metre rise in sea level in 100 years, with

current patterns and levelsof development. The results therefore tend to overstate the implications of sea level rise,and to understate the implications of other changes in climate, and of pressures for development due to socio-economie trends. The VA case studies show that vulnerability to accelerated sea level risevaries widelyfrom country to country. This depends on the physical and ecological parameters of the coastal system, the socio-economie settings and the management

18 Preparing to meet the coastalchallenges of the 21stcentury

Exhibit 2.2

Comparison of the impacts of changes in storm intensity and sea level rise in

The Netherlands

The potential consequences of elimate change for The Netherlands wereinvestigated in the studyThe ImpactofSea LevelRise on Society(ISOS).Various seenariosof elimate change were considered,including sea level rise, changes in river discharge and storm patterns(the latter is defined as an unfavourable change in wind direction and an increase in wind intensity of10%). ThetabIecomparesthe financial implications of three scenarios in terms of theestimated extra costs over 100years (in US$billion).

60cm SLR 100cm SLR 10%increase in storm intensity

Raising dikes 3.6 5.9 3.7

Proteetionof

flood-prone infrastructure 0.9 1.7 2.0

Preservation of dunes 0.5 0.9 0.5

Adaptation of

water management system 0.8 1.6 1.7

TOTAL 5.8 10.1 7.9

Source:Rijkswaterstaat(1991).

capabilities.Therefore,thevulnerability of a coastal zone cannot be expressedas a single index. Vulnerabilityisa typical multifactorial entity and could best be expressed by means of a vulnerability profile, identifyingthe different components of vulnerability.

The casestudies alsoshow thatglobal sea level rise is often not themost critical issue, particularlyin areas where pressures dueto population growth and economie

development arealreadycreating problemsand hazards. For example, inariver delta, changing patterns of rainfall and runoff in the catchmentarea,aswell asmorefrequent and more intensestorms and stormsurges,could have significant impacts.A number of non-climate-related factorsare also important, including water and sediment management, particularlywhere riverscrossadministrative boundaries. Subsidence,a natural geologicalphenomenon in deltas,is frequentlyexacerbated byexcessivegroundwaterabstraction. Near Tianjin inChina, for example,the current rate of subsidence of 5 cm/yr wiil produce a relativeriseinsea level of one metreinonly20years, asopposed tothe century or more expected fromglobal changes.

Thefoilowinggeneralstatements can bedrawn from the VA case studies:

Vulnerability analysishas further utility for countries and areas where nonehave yet beencarriedout,or where only preliminary studies areavailable.ContinuedVA studies

would enhance efforts towardsICZM and adaptation to elimate change.

The vulnerability casestudiesshow that the

understanding of manyof theconcepts and principlesof the vulnerabilitytosea levelriseand other impactsof elimatechange could begreatlyimproved.Thiswill require the continued effort oftheinternational scientifie community.

The vulnerability casestudiesdemonstrate the need for ICZM. In manycases,elimatechangecouldexacerbate existing problems such asbeacherosion, wetland loss, storm-generated floodingandsaltintrusion during the dry season. On theother hand,non-climate-related problemssuchas overexploitation ofnatural resources, mayreduce the natural resilience of coastal areasto adapt to elimate change. Therefore,solvingtoday'scoastal problems,while simultaneously addressing longer-term concerns withinan ICZMframework, willreduce vulnerability, encouragesustainability, and maximize the options for futuregenerationsin the face ofglobal change. A Global Vulnerability Assessment

To complement the country and localarea studies, and as supporting material totheIPCC, aGIobal Vulnerability Assessment(GVA)for acceleratedsea level rise is conducted foilowing the Common Methodology(see also Appendix1). The GVA is currentlylimited to providing estimates of the effects of a onemetrerise insea level onpopulation and

Preparing to meet the coastal challenges of the 21st century

Table 2.2

- - -

---19

Impacts of a one metre rise

in sea level,

aggregated results.

Peopleaffected 24 179 million

Assetslost 16 US$1,100billion

Dryland lost 26 113,000km'

Coastal wetlands lost 15 62,000 km'

Proteetion adaption cost 17 US$344-506billion

Impact No.ofVA's Total VA's

VA: VulnerabilityAssessmentCase Studies GVA: GlobalVulnerability Assessment

GVA(same countries) TotalGVA

107million 260 million

54,640 km' US$182billion

168,900km' US$1000billion

Source: WCC'93OrganizingCommittee (1993b)and Rijkswaterstaat, Delft Hydraulics (1993).

wetlands, rice production andofthecostsof protection. According to theGVA, an estimated 200 million people are currentlyliving in theriskzone(belowthe once-per-l 000 -year storm surgelevel).A 1 metreriseinsea level wil! increase this number to 260 million.When projected population growth to theyear 2020 isincluded,the number of people living in the risk zonewil! evenincrease to nearly400 mil!ion

(see also figure 2.1).Today, about 50 million people are affected by annual flooding(based on estimatesof existing proteetion levels).If no response measuresare taken to proteet against a one metre rise in sea level, thenumber of peoplewho wil! experienceannual flooding increaseswith 25%, andwhen population growth to theyear 2020 is included, this number increasesto 100 million,To

significantlyreduce the number of peopleat risk, proteetion measures need to be taken. The global costs for basic proteetionworksare estimated atUS$1000billion.In some regions the costswould constitute asubstantial part of current GNP,especiallyinsmall islandstates in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

The losses of coastalwetlandsarealready serious in many

locations, oftenexceeding 1%peryear. If the current trend continues,significant lossesof nearly40,000 km' (or 13%)of the world's 300,000km'of coastalwetlandsof"international importance" might be expected by2020.TheGVA estimates that up to 170,000km' (or 56%)ofcoastalwetlandscould be lost givenaone metreriseinsealevel.The actuallosses due to acceleratedsealevelrise wil!depend on the lossesof wetlands due to other causes.Iflikelyproteetion due to the year 2020 isconsidered,the estimated lossesarefurther increased byanadditional10,000 km' asaresult of reduced wetland migration. Therefore, coastal wetlands are highly

vulnerable both to human pressure and tosea level rise. Approximately 85%ofthe world'sriceisproduced in South, Southeast andEast Asia;about 10%of thisin areas that are estimated to be vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise.Less favourable hydraulic conditions caused by a1 metre rise in sealevel would affect the foodsupplyof more than 200

million people, if noadaptivemeasuresare taken. The large deltasofVietnam, Bangladeshand Myanmar (Burma)are particularly vulnerable.

Insummary, the VA case studies,supported bytheGVA, demonstrate that a one metrerise in sealevelwould have significantimpacts on agIobalscale.Although poorly quantified, otherimpacts of elimate change couldbe equally important in coastalareas. Moreover, manycoastalareasare alreadyexperiencingsignificantnon-climate-relatedproblems, often related to human activities.Given the rapidlyexpanding populations of coastalareas, these non-climate-related

problems are likelyto increase.In the long term, elimatechange impacts mayexacerbatemanyof these short-term problems.

Thus, planning for elimate change cannotbe separatedfrom the planning of the urgentshort-term problems.

2.4 TheBenefits

The goal of ICZMis not onlyto addresscurrent or future coastal problems, but also to enable coastal societiesto benefit from the more efficientand effectivewayofhandling coastal development. Most coastal areasare calledon to provide multiple products andservices.For example, thesame coastal area maycontain oil and gas,support fisheriesand shellfish industries,and maybe used for recreation, transport, waste disposal and other activities.Fewcoastal areasproduceasingle product or service.For example,areas mayhave been

designated and aremanaged as marinesanctuariesor protected areas, but multiple uses are often permitted,as long as theydo not conflictwith the conservation objectivesfor the area. The conflicting demands of society for products and services fromagiven coastal area create conflicts over the uses of coastal resources. Asthe demandson coastal resources continueto grow with increasing population and economie development, so these conflicts will become more common and apparent. A process is needed that can resolve these conflictsand implement decisions on the mixof uses that best serves the needs ofsociety now and in the future.

20 Preparing to meet the coastalchallenges ofthe 21st century

Exhibit 2.3

Integrated versus sectoral coastal zone management

The economie benefitsof pro-active integratedcoastal zone management are illustratedin figure A(taken from

IPCC CZMS1992).Itwas stated that "thebenefits of integratedcoastalzone management are generally

recognizedandconsidereddesirable as a management tool", In preparation for the WCC'93,a qualitative

underpinning of these benefits basedon widely accepted economie theories, was elaborated.

Figure A showsthe benefits of apro-active versus a"wait-and-see" approach, whereas figure B more dearly illustrates the benefits ofintegratedversus sectoralcoastal zone management. The theoretical explanation in

favour of pro-activemanagement comprises economie theories regardingdecision making underuncertainty

(e.g. hedging andthe precautionary principle)and discounting(comparing the costs andbenefits at different points in time).Also thetimelagbetween planning and implementing coastal zone management strategies is an important factor to be considered,asweil asthe applicationof discount rates.

D

liD

Figure A Cessistzone management ior sustainabledevelapment.The upper line(CP),which representstatalgrossproduction in a particular area,country ar region.increasesas a result af populsiion growth, technalagical pragressand economiedevelapment. Hawever,the damage(0)alsa increasesdue to acceleratedsealevel rise,polluiion. congesiion,ovet-exploitstion af resources, etc. If na coesteizone management measuresare taken,the increasein damage will be higher than the increasein tatalgross production. resulting in reduced net production(NP),eventually leading to acollapse.Rednetion af damage(MJ)can be achieved by pro-ective investments in coastal zone management(1).Due to the langlead times required tor the measuresto have aneffect, it will takesome time befare an actual reductianin damageis realized.This time lag is indicated byL1T.Duringthis petiod, na benefits will arise from the investments.Later,however,the reductian in damageenables net production(NP/CIM) tocontinue ioincrease,which can be regardedas sustsinebiedevelapment.

Souree.Adapted from Eid and Hulsbergen(1990);IPCCCIMS (1992).

To illustrate the benefitsof integratedversus sectoral coastal zone management,use is made of the presence of external effects.External effects are defined as the benefits or damages that a sector unintentional1yimposeson the economieactivitiesof anothersector. If external effectsare present across separatesectorsin thecoastalzone,

Preparing to meet the coastal challenges of the21st century 21

Integrated versus

secteral

coastal zone management

Figure Bshowsthat thetimelag between the start of investments in coastal management and the investments becomingeffectiveislargerwhen taking an integrated thanwhen taking asectoral approach. This is due to the fact that ICZMinvolvesmore extensiveanalysis and planning.However,because of the negative external effects related tosectoral coastalzone management,the investment costs ofsectoral management needed to achieve the same reduction in damagewould rise faster than those of integrated management. In other words,the costsof an integrated approachwill, in the longer term,be lower than the cumulative costs ofseparate seetoral approaches.

~

NP/SCZM ....

... ólT

~

óST

Figure B fntegrated versussectorafcoastafzone management.Thedashedfine(GP)representsgrossproduction. as in figure A. The lower fine(NP),representingnet production,results from thegrossproduction and the damage when no measuresare taken.

Reduction of damagecanbeachieved by pro-active investments in sectoral(,1S0)or integrated coastal zone management(&0).

The time lagbetween the start of theinvestments islarger for integrated(&T)than for sectoral(,1ST)CZM becausethe former involves more extensive anafysisand planning.However,net production with integrated CZM(NPlfCZM)will eventually be higher than net production withsectorst CZM(NP/SCZM),again becauseof the external effects.

Souree:WCC'93 OrganizingCommittee(1993a).

With regardto the benefits,in theshort term,sectoral management mayresult in higher benefits than integrated management, due to the longer time lag related to integrated analysisand planning.However, it is apparent from figure B that the difference ishardlynoticeable. As soon as integrated management strategies areimplemented, again the externaleffectsmake the difference.Thisean be illustrated using as an example the positive impacts of nature conservation on the qualityof groundwater. When thisgroundwater isused for drinking water purposes, unnecessary high purification costswould be incurred if the positive external effectsstemming from nature conservation are not taken into account. In contrast,a negative external effect maybe imposedonthe drinking watersupplycompaniesif noaccount istaken of the interest of nature conservation when designing and constructing proteetion works to accommodate sea level rise.

22

For coastal areas, the most appropriate process for addressing these challenges is integrated coastal zone management:

ICZM can provide for coastal societies an opportunity to move towards sustainable development. Integrated management of conflicting uses and activities is essential for this goal.

ICZM enables current and future interests in coastal areas and resources to be taken into account. Through the consideration of short-, medium and long-term interests, ICZM can stimulate economie development of coastal areas and resources, while reducing the degradation of their natural systems. Given the inherent uncertainty of the future, including rat es of elimate change, ICZM can provide aframework within which flexibleresponses to deal with this uncertainty can be developed.

ICZM can provide coastal states with a process to enhance economie development and improve the quality oflife. In 1990,the IPCC recommended th at coastal nations

implement comprehensive coastal zone management plans to address the impacts of global elimate change. These plans are intended to reduce the impacts on social and economie systems while maintaining the integrity and intrinsic value of important coastal ecosystems. In 1992, the IPCC again stressed the importance of integrating the needs of various sectors into a coastal zone management programme, noting th at "the benefits of integrated coastalzone planning and management are generally recognized and considered desirabie

as a management tooi to address complex coastal resource use

issues".

Integration in coastal zone management is most appropriate in preventing the degradation of coastal ecosystems, which would reduce their economie value and increase their vulnerability to global elimate change. Although integrated management requires more extensive analysis and planning than sectoral management, its overall costs will ultimately be lower than those of sectoral management. In other words, the total costs of an integrated approach will, in the longer term, be lower than the cumulative costs of separate sectoral approaches (see exhibit 2.3). In addition, strengthening ICZM at an early stage will be financially advantageous in the long run. Due to the long lead times that are often needed for the implementation of response measures, taking a pro-active, or precautionary, approach to ICZM (that is acting before irreversible damage is realized), is to be preferred not only from an environmental, but also from an economie perspective, because this waythe eventual total damage can be minimized and benefits can be maximized.

It is common practice in economics to use a discount rate when trading off future costs and benefits against present ones. The discount ra te reflects the assumption that a cost or benefit is lower when it occurs further in the future. Using a discount rate r,an amount Aafter tyears is valued as

N(l +r)! in present value (in real terms, i.e.corrected for inflation). If,for instanee, adiscount rate of 10%isused

(r=O.I), this means that the value of an amount Ato be

Preparing to meet thecoastal challenges of the21st century

received/paid after eight years will be only half of that amount if it were to be received/paid now. The importance of future costs and benefits dwindles the higher the discount ra te and the longer the time horizon.

Economists often argue about what discount rate should be applied by goverments to decisions with long-term

implictions. The debate has gained importance since the concept of sustainable development has been officially accepted as a policy target by many governments. The concept of sustainable development (defined bythe World Commission on Environment and Development as"meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs") is, bydefinition, incompatible with the use of a high discount rate, and could therefore better not be mixed with economie and financial cost/benefit criteria which provide measures for the profitability of investments.

It can even be argued th at when taking decisions to serve general interests of a country, a discount rate should not be applied at all. Sustainable development is considered to be of general interest to both the present population and future generations. Such considerations on general interests are to provide additional criteria on the implications of long term changes for short- and medium term planning decisions. ICZM decisions should therefore compare alternative planning options by: (i) the discounted costs and benefits within the common short- and medium term planning horizons, and (ii) the possible impacts of the options on the longer-term vulnerability or potential for sustainable development of coastal systems. For the comparison of costs and benefits referred to under (i)discounting may be applied when relevant. It is often difficult, however, to value natural ecosystems and resources th at may perform essential

environmental and societal functions. For the effects referred to under (ii) comparison between alternative options is possible without discounting.

Apart from the economie benefits of a pro-active, or precautionary, approach to ICZM, ICZM also follows the philosophy of the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED). In fact, a number ofthe principles adopted byUNCED are relevant to the long-term

management of coastal areas and resources. In particular, ICZM is consistent with Principles 2-4, 6,9, 15 and 16 of the Rio Declaration. For example, with regard to Principle 15,

ICZM provides a precautionary process to re duce or avoid serious or irreversible environmental damage to coastal areas and resources arising from economie development and population growth, and to reduce the impacts of global elimate change.

Adaptation to elimate change cannot be separated from the management and planning efforts to address present-day problems in many coastal areas. Planning and management decisions aiming at the sustainable use of natural resources can be accomplished through carefully harmonizing the

Preparing to meet the coastal challenges of the21st century

differentsectoral development optionsand needs (the integration component of coastal management). ICZM

should,therefore, be seen as an evolutionaryprocess,which is

consistent withsustainabledevelopment.Sustainable development has,bydefinition,an extended time horizon.

Long-term thinking istherefore akey component of ICZM.

Considering response optionsto adapt to elimate changeis

oneof theimportant vehiclestostimulatesuch long-term thinking.Solvingimmediate coastal problemsinan

integrated manner will make coastalsystemsmoreresilient in the longer term,when elimate changeandassociatedsealevel rise maybecome important Issues.

2.5 Conclusions

Based on the VA case studiesand analysispresented, the WCC'93 concluded that:

There is an urgent need for coastalstatestostrengthen their capabilities for integrated coastalzonemanagement, working towards the development of appropriate strategies and programmes bythe year 2000.

Recognizing the multisectoral character of coastal problems

and the need to consider both presentand future concerns, the Conference concluded that:

Integrated coastal zone management is a most appropriate process to anticipate and respond to long-term concerns and

needs while addressing present-day challenges and opportunities.

A growing infrastrudure in SriLanka demandsbuilding material, stimulating large scalesand mining.

23

A growing economy in Sri Lankademands building material, stimulatingsmall scalesand extradion.

Largescale sandminitig canresult in long term coastal erosion.

threatening coastal communities,leading to short term emergency