Understanding water resources conditions in data scarce river basins using intelligent pixel information, Case: Transboundary Indus Basin

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Understanding water resources conditions in data scarce

river basins using intelligent pixel information

Case: Transboundary Indus Basin

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Understanding water resources conditions in data scarce

river basins using intelligent pixel information

Case: Transboundary Indus Basin

Proefschrift

ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor

aan de Technische Universiteit Delft,

op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof. ir. K.C.A.M. Luyben,

voorzitter van het College voor Promoties,

in het openbaar te verdedigen

op dinsdaag 29 mei 2012 om 15:00 uur

door

Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud CHEEMA

Master of Science

University of Agriculture Faisalabad

geboren te Sargodha, Pakistan

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Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotor:

Prof. dr. W.G.M. Bastiaanssen

Samenstelling promotiecommissie:

Rector Magnificus voorzitter

Prof.dr. W.G.M. Bastiaanssen, Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Prof.dr.ir. N.C. van de Giesen, Technische Universiteit Delft

Prof.dr. S. Uhlenbrook, Technische Universiteit Delft en UNESCO-IHE

Prof.dr.ir. P. van der Zaag, Technische Universiteit Delft en UNESCO-IHE

Prof.dr.ir. H.H.G. Savenije, Technische Universiteit Delft

Dr. F. van Steenbergen, Meta Meta

Dr. W.W. Immerzeel, Universiteit Utrecht

The research described in this dissertation was performed at the Water Resources Section, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands. The Higher Education Commission (HEC), Pakistan is thanked for providing funds to carry out this research. The International Water Management Institute, Pakistan is also thanked for providing financial support for additional months.

Copyright by M.J.M. Cheema, 2012 (mjm.cheema@gmail.com)

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the author.

ISBN: 90-6562-299-3

Published by . VSSD, Delft, the Netherlands

Keywords: Indus Basin, land use, surface soil moisture, ETLook, evaporation,

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Acknowledgements

I give honor and thanks to Almighty Allah, the source of knowledge and wisdom, who endowed me with the abilities for successful execution of this PhD research. I have been

fortunate to work under dynamic supervision of Prof. Dr. Wim Bastiaanssen. His

intellectual inspiration, valuable guidance, encouragement and sparing time from his busy

schedules for lengthy stimulating discussions have been invaluable to me. I have learned a

lot from him professionally as well as personally, which has significantly improved my professional capabilities. Thank you for all this and especially for arranging my difficult administrative requests. I am also extremely grateful to Dr. Walter Immerzeel for his helpful discussions on the SWAT model application. Thanks for significantly contributing to this research and for consistent encouragement and pushing me to wrap things up. Funds for this research were generously provided by Higher Education Commission (HEC), Pakistan and I am greatly indebted. Additional funds were made available by IWMI-Pakistan to support me for a few months of additional stay at TUDelft to complete the PhD conveniently. I also thank University of Agriculture Faisalabad (UAF) for granting me leave to enable me pursues this research. These funding institutes and their donors are gratefully acknowledged. Special thanks go to Rao Azhar (HEC, Pakistan), Loes Minkman (NUFFIC) and Franca Post (CICAT, TUDelft) for making all administrative and logistic work in the Netherlands possible. I am thankful to Dr Vladmir Smakhtin and Dr Asad Sarwar for their gentle and highly professional attitude, which greatly facilitated to successfully complete this study.

For this study, secondary information was collected from various government agencies in Pakistan, including the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the Punjab Irrigation Department (PID), the SCARP Monitoring Organization (SMO) and the Indus Water Commission (IWC). Here I would like to thanks Engr.Sheraz Jamil Memon and Engr. Faris Kazi of IWC, Habib Ullah Bodla of PID and Dr Muhammad Arshad of UAF for their positive attitude and making it possible to get precious databases.

Many thanks go to the colleagues in the section of Water Resources at TUDelft for the great assistance I received from them. Although I am grateful to everybody for the pleasant time, I would like to mention some colleagues in specific. Hanneke de Jong and Betty Rothfusz, thank you both for all administrative assistance you provided. Martine Rutten, Ilyas Masih, Saket Pande and Zheng Duan thank you all for good discussions. Reeza, Jacqueline and Congli for providing a friendly environment in the office. Thanks Miriam for your friendly and caring attitude and also for being my paranimf. Special thanks to Atiq, Naveed and Faisal for providing an atmosphere that always give me a feeling as I am in my homeland. I am also extremely thankful to Annemarie Klaasse and Henk Pelgrum of Water Watch for providing necessary support in collecting satellite data and understanding ETLook algorithm.

I want to thank my friends who have made sure that not my whole life consisted of doing a PhD. In particular, I want to mention Bilal Ahmad, Faisal Nadeem, Fakhir, Seyab, Shah Muhammad, Atif, Laiq, Malik Aleem and Iftikhar Faraz who were always ready to play cricket and arrange dinners. Sarfaraz Munir and Syed Iftikhar Kazmi are specially thanked for the nice company which provided me an excellent opportunity to share my feelings and

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concerns more openly with someone from my own country, Pakistan. How can I forget the pleasant gupshup with Zahid Shabbir and fight with high velocity opposing winds while riding bikes from Rotterdam to TUDelft and back. It was a great adventure of my life, which I will not forget. Of course, this list is not complete and I want to thank all my friends but I would prefer to rather do this in person than in the form of an exhaustive list. I wish to express my gratitude to my family for their love, good wishes, inspirations and unceasing prayers for me, without which the present destination would have been mere a dream. The dream of my father, Masud Ata Cheema, to see me a doctor comes true. Today, I am missing my loving mother, but I am sure she will be happy in heaven. I would like to thank my uncles Dr Zahid Ata Cheema and Mr. Muhammad Aftab Mehmud who motivated me to start my PhD study. I also want to thank my aunts, brothers (Jehangir Masud Cheema and Mughees Aftab) and sisters (Kshif and Adeela) for their prayers and well wishes. Finally, I thank my wife and children for their patience and perseverance during long period of our separation and care and support while our stay in the Netherlands. Raheela, without you I would not have been able to finish this thesis as you always ask on which paper I am working, how many are submitted and how many are published? This kept me focused on the final goal. Final thanks to my little fairies, Shaiza and Hamima for their prayers and love. The sweet company of you made this tough journey a very pleasant and memorable experience of my life and I will never forget these moments.

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Symbols and Abbreviations

List of symbols

α Shape factor

αo Surface albedo

βw Water use distribution parameter

cp Specific heat of dry air

Cr Capillary rise in the unsaturated zone

DEPgw Net groundwater depletion

Δe Vapor pressure deficit

ΔSus Change in storage of the unsaturated zone

E Evaporation

ET Evapotranspiration

ETo Reference crop evapotranspiration

ETSWAT Actual evapotranspiration modeled by SWAT

ETETLook Actual evapotranspiration estimated by ETLook

ε Dielectric constant

εs Dielectric constant of soil solids

εfw Dielectric constant of free water

G Soil heat flux

H Sensible heat flux

I Interception

IRRcw Canal water supplied at farm gate

IRRgw Gross groundwater abstraction

IRRRS Total irrigation estimated by remote sensing

IRRSWAT Total irrigation applied in SWAT

Ksf Ability of plant to extract soil moisture

λE Latent heat flux

Ln Net longwave radiation

LOSScw Canal water losses

Φ Available water capacity of soil

Ψ Soil evaporation compensation factor

Qgw Return flow from shallow aquifer

Qsurf Surface runoff

Qlat Lateral flow through unsaturated zone

Qperc Percolation to saturated zone

ρ Air density

R Rainfall

R↓ Incoming shortwave radiation

r Pearson’s product moment correlation

R2 Coefficient of determination

ra,soil Aerodynamic resistance for soil

ra,canopy Aerodynamic resistance for canopy

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Rn Net radiation

Rn,soil Net radiations at soil surface

Rn,canopy Net radiations at canopy

rop Reflectivity from smooth soil surface

Rr Rainfall rate

rs Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient

rs,min Minimum stomatal resistance

rsoil Soil resistance

rsp Reflectivity from rough soil surface

RSWAT Rainfall from SWAT

Rtoa Top of atmosphere radiation

RTRMM Satellite rainfall

SeFC Effective saturation at field capacity

Sesub Subsoil effective saturation

Setop Topsoil effective saturation

Sm Soil moisture stress

Sr Radiation stress

St Temperature stress

Sv Vapor pressure stress

T Transpiration

Tair Air temperature

Tb Brightness temperature

Tp Potential plant transpiration

τa Atmospheric optical thickness

τc Vegetation optical thickness

τo Oxygen opacity at nadir

τMODIS Short wave transmissivity from MODIS

τr Precipitation optical thickness

τsw Shortwave transmissivity

U2 Wind speed

θsat Saturated soil moisture content

θo Volumetric water content

θAMSRE AMSRE surface soil moisture

θsat,xy Saturated moisture content at 1 km pixel (x,y)

θres,xy Residual moisture content at 1 km pixel (x,y)

wup,z Plant water uptake factor

ω Single scattering albedo

Λ Evaporative fraction

Z Radar reflectivity factor

z Depth from soil surface

zd Damping depth

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List of Abbreviations

ALOS Advanced Land Observing Satellite amsl Above Mean Sea Level

AMSR-E Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – EOS

APHRODITE Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

AWR Australian Water Resources

CAMS Climate Assessment and Monitoring System

CCA Canal Command Area

CERES Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System

CMAP Climate Prediction Center’s merged Analysis of Precipitation CRU Climatic Research Unit

CWR Crop Water Requirement DAAC Data Active Archive Centers DEM Digital Elevation Model

DOY Day of Year

DN Digital Numbers

EROS Earth Resources Observation and Science ESA European Space Agency

ETLook Evapotranspiration Look

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FY-2 Feng Yun 2 (Earth Observation System) GDA Geographical Differential Analysis

GHz Giga Hertz

GIS Geographic Information System GOP Government of Pakistan

GPCC Global Precipitation Climatology Centre GPCP Global Precipitation Climatology Project GRACE Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment

GLC Global Land Cover

ha Hectare

hr Hour

HRU Hydrological Response Unit

IB Indus Basin

IB-IN Indus Basin Indian part IB-PK Indus Basin Pakistani part IBIS Indus Basin Irrigation System IBSP Indus Basin Settlement Plan

ICID International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development IDW Inverse Distance Weighted

IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Program

IN India

IRSA Indus River System Authority

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IWASRI International Water Logging and Salinity Research Institute IWC Indus Water Commission

IWT Indus Water Treaty

IWMI International Water Management Institute JAXA Japanese Space Agency

Km3 Cubic kilometer

KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

LAI Leaf Area Index

LAIeff Effective leaf area index

LIS Lightning Imaging Sensor LT-1 Length per Time

LULC Land Use and Land Cover

MERIS Medium-spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer mha Million Hectares

MINFAL Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCDC National Climatic Data Center

NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NGU Net Groundwater Use

NIR Near Infrared

n m Nano Meter

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NSE Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency

NSIDC National Snow and Ice Data Center PARC Pakistan Agricultural Research Council PID Provincial Irrigation Department

PK Pakistan

PMD Pakistan Metrological Department PR Precipitation Radar

RA Regression Analysis

RE Relative Error

RFI Radio Frequency Interference

RH Relative Humidity

RMSE Root Mean Square Error ROI Regions of Interest

RS Remote Sensing

SC Sensitivity Coefficient

SEBAL Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land SEE Standard Error of Estimates

SI Scattering Index

SMMR Scanning Multi-channel Microwave Radiometer SPOT Satellite Probatoire d’Observation dela Terre SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission

SSM/I Special Sensor Microwave/Imager SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool

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SWIR Shortwave Infrared

TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission

TMI TRMM Microwave Imager

UN United Nations

USGS United States Geological Survey

VC Vegetation Cover

VIRS Visible-Infrared Radiometer Scanner VWC Vegetation Water Content

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority WMO World Meteorological Organization

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1 Introduction

The most precious resource on earth, vital for human sustainability is water. Exponential increase in global population and unconstrained water resource utilization threatens the spatial and temporal availability of the world’s freshwater resources. The threat is more severe in developing countries where the majority of the population practices agriculture. Agriculture accounts for instance for 30% of the economy in a country such as Pakistan. Surface water and groundwater (separately or in combination) are used to fulfill the crop water requirements. The declining water resources need to be managed in an integrated way at basin scale. In fact, water management has to undergo significant improvements in terms of vision, targets, decision-making, and accounting. Hydrological simulation models can be used as analytical tools for determining the water flow paths (e.g. Andersson et al., 2006) and the impact of water management measures on irrigation systems (e.g. Droogers et al., 2000). The transboundary nature of river basins and the limited availability of data is however a hindrance for good modeling. Spatial information of topography, land use, rainfall, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and leaf area index, derived from remote sensing can be used for, and will enhance spatially distributed modeling. Such data can also be used to validate and calibrate hydrological models. This thesis aims to improve the knowledge base of river basins by using satellite measurements and advanced hydrological models in data scarce environments to support short term and long term planning and water allocation processes. The transboundary Indus Basin is used as a case study.

1.1 Transboundary river basins

The river basin is the basic geographic unit which collects and provides water for the basin ecosystems itself, but also for agriculture, industry, and socio-economic development within the basin and downstream. The water of a basin flows across and underneath international boundaries to sustain agro ecosystems, whose boundaries do not coincide with the political boundaries. Such situations complicate the study of water flows and resource management. Nearly half the world is situated in 263 international river basins bearing 40% of the world’s population(Wolf et al., 1999). These 263 international rivers generate 60% of global fresh water. Most of these rivers are situated in Europe (69), followed by Africa(59), Asia (57), North America (40) and South America (38) as illustrated in Figure 1-1.

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The transboundary nature of the river basins has resulted in acrimonious disputes over water. Any change in upstream water use can severely affect the downstream users, although they may be thousands of kilometers apart from each other. The effects of land and water use planning in one part of the basin is vital for the users in another part of the basin (e.g. Molden et al., 2001). One example of such a river basin is the Indus Basin where the riparian countries have strained relationships over water flows. The Indus is a transboundary basin encompassing Pakistan, India, China and Afghanistan (Figure 1-2). Therefore, flow commitments by means of water treaties between the co-basin states are necessary for sharing and better utilizing of the resources.

Figure 1-2 Location of the Indus Basin

1.2 Water conflicts and treaties

All water users are hydrologically connected in a river basin. Upstream water use has a direct effect on the downstream users even thousands of kilometers away, or in another country. By promoting water supplies, upstream water users can cause dramatic consequences for downstream water users and their environments. Upstream riparian proprietors should not deprive downstream water users access in terms of quantity and quality. Even environmentally endorsed and acceptable practices to improve biodiversity and reduce soil loss upstream can lead to extermination of flora and fauna in downstream flood plains and estuaries. During wars, manipulation of the river waters can also be used as an offensive or defensive military weapon (Gleick, 2008).

Water flowing across political boundaries has resulted in various conflicts and agreements of cooperation (treaties) among the riparian countries. During the last 60 years, 37 incidents of conflicts among the riparian countries over water are reported by Wolf (1998). For example, partitioning of India and Pakistan in 1947 divided the Indus Basin, which caused a continuous threat of war over water flows. India, occupying the upstream portion of the basin, had control of the barrages and diverted water to its own lands. It caused a serious

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environmental threat to the lower riparian areas in Pakistan. The construction of new storage and hydropower facilities during 1947 to 1960 made the situation even worse. The Nile Basin is shared by ten countries. For many years, there was tension among the countries over the use of the Nile. For example, Tanzania vowed to use water from Lake Victoria (that feeds the Nile) for its domestic use; thus causing tension with lower riparian country Egypt. The tension between Egypt and Sudan over the water rights of the Nile increased in 1958 (Mandel, 1992). The plan by Egypt to divert water for use in the Sinai desert was strongly opposed by Ethiopia and the two countries were at the verge of war in 1980. The conflict between Syria and Iraq over the water of the Euphrates River stems from 1975 and is basically an un-solved issue. Construction of the Ataturk dam on the Euphrates river by Turkey has substantially reduced the flows to Syria (Zawahri, 2006). Crossfire between Israel and Syria over the water rights in the Huleh Basin occurred during 1951-53. Conflict arose between India and Bangladesh over the use of the Ganges River water and the conflict intensified in 1975 when India started to construct the Farakka barrage to unilaterally control the flow of the Ganges River. In the early 1990s Hungary and Slovakia started with the Gabukovo-Nagymaros barrage system along the Danube River. Conflict arose between the two countries and Hungary deployed troops to keep the system inoperative(Fuyane and Madai, 2001).

To resolve such conflicts, the riparian countries have to come up with treaties defining water rights. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of United Nations reported that 3600 treaties on the use of international waters have been formed between 805 A.D. to 1984 A.D. Historically, the treaties to resolve water conflicts date back to 2500 B.C. when the two states of Lagash and Umma signed an agreement to end conflict along the Tigris River.

A water treaty was signed between Mexico and United States in 1944 which defined the water rights and delivery responsibilities associated with the Colorado and the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo basins (Gastélum et al., 2010). Similarly, the Mekong River Commission was established in 1995 to efficiently utilize the resources of the Mekong River. In 1959, Egypt and Sudan signed an agreement to fully utilize the Nile water and established a Permanent Joint Technical Commission (Mandel, 1992). In 1996, India and Bangladesh signed a 30-year-treaty to share the flows of the Ganges which ended the dispute over Indian unilateral water diversions from the Farakka barrage. A similar effort was made between India and Pakistan in 1960, to resolve their water conflicts in the Indus Basin.

1.3 Indus water treaty

Development of irrigation systems in the Indus Basin dates back to the Harrapan civilization 2300 B.C. to 1500 B.C. (Fahlbusch et al., 2004). During the 2nd millennium, various Mughal emperors constructed limited canal systems to irrigate dry lands along the Ravi, Chenab and Sutlej rivers (Thatte, 2008). The systematic development of irrigation canals with weir-controlled structures started during British rule in 1850, when the 395 km long Upper Bari Doab canal (UBDC) was constructed. The headwork was constructed on the Ravi River at Madhopur in 1873.The next large project was the development of the Sirhind canal from the Sutlej River at Ropar to irrigate the districts of Ludhiana, Ferozpur

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and Hissar, etc. It became operational in 1882. Afterwards, a network of canals was developed all over the Indus Basin, the Sidhnai canal taking off from the Ravi River was constructed in 1886. The Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) from Khanki headwork in the Chenab River became operational in year 1900. The Lower Jhelum Canal (LJC) commenced in 1901 from the left bank of the Jhelum River at Rasul barrage. A schematic diagram of irrigation system is shown in Figure 1-3 to give an idea of the location of various barrages and link canals in the basin.

During the late 19th century, severe famine occurred that resulted in the establishment of the 1st Irrigation Commission of India in 1901. It came up with a proposal to transfer west flowing rivers eastwards to cope with the severe famine in the eastern parts. This proposal seems to be the base of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) (Thatte, 2008).

Development of The Triple Canal Project (Upper Jhelum canal: UJC, Upper Chenab canal: UCC, and Lower Bari Doab canal: LBDC) was proposed by the commission in 1905. It comprised a system of linked canals, including irrigation systems, starting from the Jhelum, through Upper Jhelum canal, to the Chenab River, and then to the Ravi River through the Upper Chenab canal. The project was completed in 1915.The gigantic Sutlej Valley Project (1921) was designed to replace the old-shutter type weirs with gate-controlled barrages. Four weirs at Ferozpur, Sulemanki, Islam and Punjnad were constructed. The former three were completed in 1927 and the latter one in 1933. Four canals, the Pakpattan, Dipalpur, Eastern and Mailsi canals were constructed in 1933 as part of this project. The Haveli and Rangpur canals were then completed in 1939, taking off from the Trimmu headworks, downstream of the confluence of the Jhelum and Chenab.

In 1947, independence from the British rule resulted in the partitioning of the two riparian countries (Pakistan and India, sharing the major portion of the basin). Two major headworks, one at Madhopur on the Ravi and the other at Ferozpur on the Sutlej(rivers flowing eastward from India to Pakistan) went under Indian control. Irrigation in the Pakistani part of the Punjab province was dependent on these headworks. The Indian possession of the headworks resulted in administrative problems to regulate and supply water.

To cope with the foreseen water crisis due to the stopping of east flowing rivers, Pakistan started to construct various barrages and linked canals to divert west flowing rivers eastward. For example, the Balloki-Sulemanki link (BSL:1954), the Marala-Ravi link (MRL:1956) and the Bombanwala-Ravi-Badian-Dipalpur link (BRBD: 1956) canals were constructed for this purpose. The Taunsa barrage was constructed in 1958. The Abbasia canal was extended, and the Thal canal project was undertaken.

Meanwhile, India started construction of the Ferozpur and Rajasthan feeders in 1947. The Bhakra Nangal project started in 1948. The Harike barrage was completed in 1952. The Madhopur-Beas link canal was constructed in 1955 to divert waters of the Ravi to the Beas (Thatte, 2008). The Bhakra canal (remodeling of the Ropar headworks) and the Sirhind canal system were completed in 1955. The Rajisthan canal project was initiated in 1958.

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Figure 1-3 Schematic diagram of the Indus Basin Irrigation Systems. C denotes canals, F feeders and L linking canals.

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Due to disagreement on water use between the two countries, India diverted all flows from the east flowing rivers (the Ravi, the Beas and the Sutlej). It created water scarcity and an environmental threat in the eastern part of the Indus Basin located in Pakistan. Various conflicts arose between the two countries on water distribution of the rivers in the Indus Basin.

To resolve these issues, water rights were defined under World Bank and United Nations auspices in 1960, by the signature of the famous Indus Water Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan. Nine articles with seven annexure were defined in the treaty. According to the IWT, the flows of three main west flowing rivers (the Indus, the Jhelum, and the Chenab) were available to Pakistan, while India had exclusive rights to waters of rivers flowing east. The treaty prohibited both countries from undertaking any structures that may change the volume of daily flows (Article II). Article III restricted India from constructing storage facilities on west flowing rivers. However, India was allowed to construct incidental limited storage on the western rivers. This was allowed only if the design was communicated to Pakistan six months in advance. The design needed to be approved by Pakistan and storage of structures should not exceed the defined volume.

A permanent Indus Water Commission (IWC) was established under the IWT article VIII for smooth implementation of the treaty. The commission was to meet once in the year alternately in Pakistan and India. The functions of IWC were to establish and maintain cooperative agreements for IWT implementation, provide a report at the end of each year, inspection of rivers once in five years, and to settle disputes. The commission was also responsible to share data on agricultural use, hydro-electric power generation, water storage, and flows in the rivers. Under the Article VI, both countries were supposed to share daily gauge and discharge data, reservoir extractions, canal withdrawals and escapes. The IWT was successfully implemented in the first few decades and a number of reservoirs and a network of inter-river linking canals were constructed in the Indus Basin under the Indus Basin Settlement Plan (IBSP). The details of the linking canals along with their year of construction are provided in the Table 1.1.

Table 1.1 Linking canals constructed in the Indus Basin before and after IWT

S. No

Linking canal Off taking Barrage

Linked rivers Construction year

Country Length (km) 1 Upper Chenab Marala Chenab-Ravi 1912 Pakistan 142 2 Upper Jhelum Mangla Jhelum-Chenab 1915 Pakistan 142 3 Balloki-Sulemanki Balloki Ravi-Sutlej 1954 Pakistan 63 4 Marala-Ravi Marala Chenab-Ravi 1956 Pakistan 101

5 BRBD Marala Chenab-Ravi 1956 Pakistan 175

6 Madhopur-Beas Madhopur Ravi-Beas 1955 Pakistan 20 7 Trimmu-Sidhnai Trimmu Chenab-Ravi 1965 Pakistan 71 8 Sidhnai-Mailsi Sidhnai Ravi-Sutlej 1965 Pakistan 132 9 Mailsi-Bhawal Sidhnai Ravi-Sutlej 1965 Pakistan 16 10 Rasul-Qadirabad Rasul Jhelum-Chenab 1967 Pakistan 48 11 Qadirabad-Balloki Qadirabad Chenab-Ravi 1967 Pakistan 129 12 Chashma-Jhelum Chashma Indus-Jhelum 1970 Pakistan 101 13 Taunsa-Punjnad Taunsa Indus-Chenab 1970 Pakistan 61

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14 Beas-Sutlej Pandoh Beas-Sutlej 1977 India 37 15 Sutlej-Yamuna Nangal Sutlej-yamuna U.C India 214 16

Sutlej-HaryanaAlwar

Ferozpur P India

U.C: Under construction; P:Proposed; Sources:(Thatte, 2008; Wilson, 2011)

After signing the IWT, the government of Pakistan started some mega projects. These included construction of two large dams, the Mangla dam (1966) on the Jhelum River and the Tarbela dam (1976) on the Indus River, construction of eight large capacity linking canals, six barrages and remodeling of three of the existing inter-river linking canals. There was no big irrigation canal project implemented after these developments. However, construction of three new irrigation canals: the Raini canal, the Greater Thal canal, and the Kachhi canal was approved in 2002. Amongst these, the former two are under construction. Construction of the large capacity multi-purpose Diamer-Basha dam on the Indus about 315 km upstream of Tarbela dam was initiated and is expected to be completed in 2018. The Kurramtangi dam on the Kurram River and the Munda dam on the Swat River are also proposed for construction. Detail of the major reservoirs constructed in the Indus Basin is provided in the Table 1.2.

Table 1.2 Major reservoirs constructed in the Indus Basin

S.No Reservoir River Country Construction year

1 Tarbela Indus Pakistan 1976

2 Mangla Jhelum Pakistan 1966

3 Chashma Indus Pakistan

4 Diamer-Basha Indus Pakistan Under construction 5 Kurramtangi Kurram Pakistan Under construction

6 Munda Swat Pakistan Under construction

7 Bhakra Sutlej India 1963

8 Pong Beas India 1974

9 Pandoh Beas India 1977

10 Thein Ravi India

11 Salal Chenab India 1995

12 Baglihar Chenab India 2004

13 Indus India Under construction

In India, the Bhakra dam was completed in 1963 while the Rajasthan feeder canal was finished in 1964. The Pong dam (1974) and the Pandoh dam (1977) were constructed on the Beas River. The Beas-Sutlej link canal was constructed in 1977 to divert water from the Beas to the Sutlej. In 1985 a lift irrigation scheme was completed in the Haryana district. The Indira Gandhi Nahar Phase I was constructed in 1999. The dam on the Ravi was completed in 2001. Phase II of the Indira Gandhi Nahar project was completed in 2006. The Wullar barrage/Tulbul navigational project in the states of Jammu and Kashmir was proposed by India in 1984. The Salal dam project on the Chenab in the Jammu and Kashmir states was started in 1970 and step-wise completed in 1995. Another mega project downstream of Salal dam is the Baglihar dam. The construction began in 1999 and the first phase was completed in 2004. The locations of the various structures constructed after IWT are shown in Figure 1-4.

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Figure 1-4 Location of reservoirs and barrages constructed on the Indus River and its tributaries.

During the last decade, several issues have arisen, on which IWC is working to resolve within its mandate. India has for example started construction of storage structures on the tributaries of the Indus, whose rights were given to Pakistan. The Wullar barrage/Tulbul hydropower projects on the Jhelum, and the Kishan Ganga hydropower project on the Kishan Ganga river, a tributary of Jhelum, are few examples (Zawahri, 2009). Construction of the Baglihar dam on the Chenab with storage capacity of 37 million cubic meter (MCM) is considered a violation of IWT. Afghanistan is also planning to control the water of the Kabul River (Lashkaripou and Hussaini, 2007) with financial and technical support from India. Similar structures are proposed upstream of the Jhelum and Chenab (Khan, 2009). It is argued that, although there is a provision in IWT to construct hydro-power generation projects, storage structures must not exceed 12.35 MCM capacities. The construction of these storage structures on western rivers will have catastrophic consequences for Pakistan

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as reduced flows resulting from filling of these dams during low flow season could destroy the rabi seaon crops in Pakistan (PILDAT, 2010).

The average annual flows of major rivers in the basin are provided in Table 1.3. These flows represent the pre-treaty (1922-61) and post-treaty (1985-2002 and 2007-2010) situations. The flows show decreasing trends for both west and east flowing rivers. The average flow of eastern rivers into Pakistan was reduced by 75% to 92% during the years 1985-2002 and 2007-2010, respectively. Pakistan can utilize only residual flows from these east flowing rivers. However, these flows are variable and available only during the monsoon season. About 17% reduction in the average flow of the west flowing rivers is also observed. Climate change and its variability may cause reduction in flow of the west flowing rivers (Ahmad, 2009). However, the upstream interventions could also be the cause of reduced flows.

Table 1.3 Average flows in major rivers of the Indus basin before and after IWT

River Rim station Average Annual Flow (1922-61) (km3) Average Annual Flow (1985-2002) (km3) Average Annual Flow (2007-10) (km3) West flowing rivers Indus Kalabagh 114.4 94.1 101.9 Jhelum Mangla 28.3 23.7 19.3 Chenab Marala 31.9 24.5 23.9 East flowing rivers Ravi Below Madhopur 8.6 4.0 1.1 Sutlej Below Ferozepur 17.2 2.2 0.8 Total 200.4 148.5 147.0

Source: (Khan, 1999; GOP, 2011; IUCN, 2011)

An integrated approach to manage transboundary water resources can lead to development and revision of water treaties between states, and prevent potential conflicts and resolve disagreements. Provision of objective information to facilitate negotiations between various fellow states requires tools that can monitor spatial and temporal changes in water demand and water use over vast areas.

1.4 Transboundary aquifer

Continues population growth in the Indus Basin resulted in mounting pressure on increased food production. It is estimated that to feed the increasing population, 40% more food will be required by the year 2025. The surface water resources in the basin (especially in Pakistan) are limited and variable. The upstream interventions by India have also threatened the timely availability of surface water downstream. Reduction of storage facilities in Pakistan can result in up to 50% shortfall of crop water requirements by the year 2025(Alam and Bhutta, 1996).

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The Indus Basin aquifer has large groundwater reserves. The development of this reserve started 30 years ago (Sarwar, 2000). Inadequate and variable surface supplies forced farmers to start irrigating with groundwater. Local and readily available groundwater makes irrigation more productive compared to surface water irrigation. Currently 40–50 % of agricultural water needs in the basin are met through groundwater (Sarwar and Eggers, 2006). Both in Pakistan and India large numbers of irrigation wells have been added every year, which resulted in 20-30% increase in groundwater abstractions during the last 20 years (Qureshi et al., 2010b). The groundwater withdrawal exceeds annual recharge causing imbalance in groundwater reserves. This process is accelerating in the province of Pakistani and Indian Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan states(Shah et al., 2000).

Groundwater is also used in conjunction with surface water. Conjunctive use is in practice on more than 70% of the irrigated areas within the Indus Basin(Qureshi et al., 2010b). Figure 1-5 shows that the 29% more area came under conjunctive irrigation during the last 20 years. These values represent the irrigated area in Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) provinces of Pakistan only. The situation in the Indian part of the basin is not different. Sustainability of major crops in the basin is now heavily dependent on groundwater.

Uncontrolled and unregulated use (over exploitation) of groundwater in many areas of the Indus Basin resulted in saltwater intrusion into the aquifer (Kijne, 1999). Water yield of wells is declining and pumping cost is increasing due to deepening of the water table. Salinization associated with the use of poor-quality groundwater for irrigation has raised the severity of the problem (Qureshi et al., 2010a).

Figure 1-5 Annual trends of surface, ground and conjunctive water use in the Pakistani part of the Indus Basin

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1.5 Data availability and sharing issues

A major obstacle in transboundary river basin water resources management is that the fundamental information on water flows, sources of water, and water demand is either missing or not accessible. The downstream riparian countries depend on their upstream neighbors for data collection and sharing. If this does not happen the downstream countries cannot prepare themselves to cope with floods and droughts or generate hydropower (Zawahri, 2008). This problem is more severe in basins in developing countries and the Indus Basin is an example. The vastness of the basin, budget constraints, political distrust, and its transboundary nature is a hindrance in establishing a comprehensive measurement network.

Rainfall is an important component of the hydrological cycle but cannot be used in water management studies if measurement stations are scarce. In the case of the Indus Basin, less than four rain gauge stations are available for an area of 10,000 km2, which is insufficient for basin scale studies.

The situation is even worse for in-situ soil moisture and evapotranspiration measurements. There is no flux station (to the author’s knowledge) available in the whole basin that provides continuous information on soil moisture status and actual evapotranspiration. The same applies for land use and crops grown in the entire basin. Some spatial databases are available describing the land uses of the basin but these databases are outdated or/and coarse with little detail on cropping patterns.

River flows are monitored by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) of Pakistan. The discharge data is collected by a network of manual and automated observation stations installed at various points along the rivers especially in upstream areas. It is the only data available.

Apart from collection, the accessibility of the data is also not straightforward. Acquisition of long term data series is difficult and involves a series of bureaucratic permissions. Accessibility is also hampered by the fragmented structure of governmental institutions designated with various water management roles and tasks. There is seldom any coordination among the departments involved in data collection and system planning. Due to lack of coordination and institutional problems, the data collected by these departments is of little use to decision makers and water resources planners in order to manage water flows effectively. Recently, the Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs) and the WAPDA initiated several projects to integrate databases. The successful completion of these projects will be a big step forward in achieving a comprehensive hydrological database.

Moreover, the continued political turmoil and distrust between the two countries make it difficult to carry out basin scale integrated water resources management. There is also no trust in the quality of data shared between the two countries because it cannot be verified, and is politically biased. Regional cooperation on water issues and comparisons between fellow states in a basin requires a standardized description of the water flows and the emerging processes. One possible way of promoting a climate of confidence and favorable political will is by building adequate databases for water accounting on basin scale. It must be admitted that nobody has reliable data related to water resources conditions, as data

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gathering and definition procedures greatly differ. Satellite data can resolve this dilemma (Bastiaanssen, 2000).

1.6 Redefinition of water resources management

Water scarcity is not only due to the physical shortage of water but also to poor management; or in the words of the World Water Council: Today’s water crisis is not about

having too little water to satisfy our needs. It is a crisis of managing water so badly that billions of people and the environment suffer badly (Cosgrove and Rijsberman, 2000).

Conventional water resource planning and management is mainly focused on blue water (water in streams, rivers, aquifers, lakes and reservoirs).There is a need to incorporate rainfall, especially in arid and semi arid basins, that infiltrates naturally into the soil and on its way back to the atmosphere in the form of evapotranspiration (green water)(Falkenmark and Rockström, 2006).Managing non-beneficial evaporation will result in a significant reduction in water use that can be re-allocated to other users.

Planning and management of surface water resources is important. However, under the current situation where groundwater utilization is upto 50% of total irrigation supplies, there is a need to plan and manage groundwater resources to maximize basin level efficiency. Groundwater can be a primary buffer against drought, as its response to short term climate variability is slower than surface water systems. The mismanagement of this buffering system can lead to serious impacts on the environment and ultimately on food security (Ahmad, 2002). Sustainable management of groundwater is considered a more serious challenge than development (Shah et al., 2000). The challenge is complex and management is not straightforward. The absence of a robust knowledge base is a major hindrance to sound management. In general, the integrated system, correctly managed, will yield more water at more economic rates than separately managed surface and groundwater systems.

1.7 Remote sensing in hydrology and water management

Transboundary river basin water resources management gains trust and faith if rainfall, diverted water, soil moisture, crop evapotranspiration and vegetation growth data is (i) collected at a range of scales, (ii) adequate, and (iii) available and accessible throughout the basin. Hydrologists cannot (in a relatively short time span) diagnose the water flow path at the regional scale if hydrological data is poor or incomplete. It requires considerable time to thoroughly quantify or model the hydrological processes and cycles in a river basin using other parties’ data.

Satellite data is an attractive alternative for data required by hydrological models and to provide spatial information to decision makers. Satellites provide objective data for database building (for various applications, see Table 1.4), which is politically neutral and cannot be manipulated. Satellite measurements reflect the land surface features and the observable landscape patterns resulting from socio-economic development, prevailing jurisdiction, agricultural practices, hydrological processes, and irrigation management. Because they are direct measurements, satellite observations are often more reliable than secondary data. For instance, the irrigated area in the Gediz River Basin in Western Turkey appeared from the satellite images to be 60% larger than from the secondary data obtained

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from governmental statistics (Bastiaanssen and Prathapar, 2000). It is obvious that if such types of secondary data are used to establish intra-basin water cooperation, disputes and conflicts can potentially worsen and trust will fade away.

Table 1.4Satellite measurements for possible applications in transboundary river basins.(Source: Bastiaanssen and Prathapar, 2000)

Discipline Application

Hydrology Snow cover, rainfall, soil moisture, evapotranspiration

Agriculture Irrigated areas, rainfed areas, crop identification, biomass growth, crop yield, irrigation performance

Environment Forest area, wetlands, rangelands, water logging, salinization, water quality Geography Digital elevation, land slope, land aspects, land cover, land use

There are large numbers of satellites in the earth’s orbit which are being used to acquire information on hydrological and biophysical parameters. Pixel size varies from few metres to kilometres and temporal resolution varies from 3-hours to months. For example, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides 3-hour rainfall rate estimates at 25 km pixel resolution since 1997. The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) observes atmospheric, land and oceanic parameters. Daily soil moisture estimates at 25 km pixel resolution are available through AMSR-E. Daily evapo transpiration can be estimated using AMSR-E and MODIS satellites at 1 km grids. NDVI, LAI, land use, albedo, biomass at 1 km resolution can also be estimated from MODIS, SPOT vegetation etc. Ground water levels can be estimated using the GRACE satellite that provides monthly changes in storage change at 400 km grids.

Spatially distributed hydrological models are in use to compute rainfall-runoff processes, river flow, erosion and sediment transport, land-atmospheric interaction, water allocation planning, irrigation supply, groundwater recharge and ecological responses to land and water resources management. Beven and Fisher (1996) recognized that remotely sensed soil moisture, ET and snow cover estimates are necessary for scaling the hydrological processes in basin scale hydrological models.

Many researchers have used satellite data in hydrological models in un-gauged or data scarce regions (Droogers and Bastiaanssen, 2002; Immerzeel et al., 2008b; Winsemius et al., 2008; Wipfler et al., 2011). Calibration and validation of these models need long term data series obtained from dense measurement networks. However, in the basins like Indus, such data is meager, thus causing a high level of uncertainty in the model results. Spatially variable information describing topography, crop types, land use, climatic data, and leaf area index, derived from remote sensing can be used for modeling across basins. This presents a new way to study the hydrological processes, water resources depletion, food security and environmental development in international river basins. It has opened a new protocol where central governmental bodies and internationally controlled agencies get uniform information. Remotely sensed information has a public domain status, and everybody can have access to raw satellite data due to the Earth Observing System with unlimited access to Data Active Archive Centers (DAACs). Federal Governments and the

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UN can inspect land and water resources management issues, either by hiring their own experts or by involving commercial consultants.

1.8 The research justification

An integrated holistic approach to international river basin management is needed, in which the basin is accepted as the logical unit of operation. A multi-sectoral, integrated system, complemented by information sharing, transparency and wide participation is therefore best suited to encompass all these elements. Such an integrated system approach to evaluate the interaction between the hydrological processes in the mountains, river flow generation, water retention in reservoirs, groundwater pumping and agricultural water use in the Indus Basin is largely lacking. In the past, most scientific modeling research concentrated on the parts with well-established databases (e.g. Sarwar, 2000; Ahmad, 2002; Arshad, 2004; Habib, 2004; Hussain, 2011). These studies are valuable to test hypothesis and to construct local scale hydrological knowledge. However, a complete understanding of the hydrological processes can only be obtained if the research focus is to establish a solid basis for solving real life problems on the entire basin.

A huge number of hydrological models are available to use in exploration of different hydrological processes. These models need input data that is limited or have inaccuracies. They must be estimated either by some relationship with physical characteristics or by tuning the parameters in order to have responses close to observed ones, a process known as calibration.

Calibration of physically based, distributed models is complex given the limitations of data, the complexity of the mathematical representation of hydrological processes, and the incomplete knowledge of basin characteristics. Model calibration is usually based on the comparison between modeled and observed values from a few gauging stations.

The problem of parameterization and lack of data for sound validation of modeling of large basins can be overcome by hydro-meteorological information from earth observation satellites. Land use, rainfall, soil moisture, water levels, total water storage changes, evapotranspiration, etc. are examples of data that can be obtained via satellites. These spatially distributed parameters can be used for distributed hydrological modeling and validation.

There is no satellite dedicated to water management application. Various vegetation and water parameters are derived from different space borne spectral radiometers. Complex algorithms are used to transform original satellite measurements into spatially and quantified pixel information. Pixels need to be trained and made intelligent by scientists because spectral radiance (W m-2 sr-1 m-1) is a signal only. Uncertainty also exists in this conversion process.

The overall objective of this thesis is “The development of methodologies to efficiently

utilize satellite measurements in hydrology and to model the conjunctive water use for data scarce river basins”.

This study is unique in that it combines ET and rainfall with water available from reservoirs to determine water balances and determine water flows with complex patterns of conjunctive use. The following innovations will result from this study:

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(1) Simple calibration and validation techniques for spatial data in data scarce conditions will be developed. (2) A distributed pixel knowledge base on water flow paths and groundwater interactions for the entire basin will be constructed. (3) A hydrological model suitable for providing near real time data and capable of testing alternative solutions to combat over-exploitation and verify IWT agreements will be designed.

This PhD study will prove that intelligent pixels combined with hydrological models will generate reliable data to effectively deal with water allocation issues such as (i) tempered groundwater exploitation, (ii) definition of volumetric water rights, including compulsory return flows, (iii) efficient irrigation systems, and (iv) vulnerability to climate changes. While climate change is on the international radar screen, the real challenge is to improve current manage of water resources, and to control conjunctive use in a sustainable manner.

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2 Study area

2.1 Geographical description

The study area selected for this study is the Indus Basin which lies between latitude 24°38′ to 37°03′ N and longitude 66°18′ to 82°28′ E. The Indus Basin is located in four countries (Figure 2-1). The lifeline of the Indus Basin is the Indus River that traverses China (upstream), Afghanistan, India and Pakistan (downstream). The total size of the basin is 1.162 million km2. The largest area of the basin is in Pakistan (53% of total). The area in India is 33% followed by China and Afghanistan with 8% and 6%, respectively. Elevations range from 0 to 8600 m above mean sea level (a.m.s.l). The Basin has complex hydrological processes due to variability in topography, rainfall, land use, and water use.

Figure 2-1 Location of the Indus Basin showing main tributaries and provinces/states of different countries in the basin.

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2.2 Hydro-climatology

The climate of the basin varies spatially and is characterized by large seasonal fluctuations in temperature and rainfall. The major part of the basin is dry and located in arid to semi arid climatic zones. The upper (northern and north-eastern) parts have harsh winters with significant snowfall while the middle and lower parts have comparatively mild winters but hot summers. The average annual rainfall varies from less than 200 mm in the desert area to more than 1500 mm in the north and north-east parts of the basin. The 30 years (1961-90) average reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) varies between 650 mm and 2000 mm in the northern parts and southern desert areas of the basin, respectively. These values were obtained from the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) world water and climate atlas (http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/WAtlas/Default.aspx).

The temporal variation of rainfall and ETo within the year also varies markedly (Figure 2-2). The ETo is higher during the months of May and June, corresponding with the pre-rainy season. Most of the rainfall occurs during the months of July, August, and September.

Figure 2-2 Monthly variation of average rainfall and reference evapotranspiration rate (ETo) in the Indus Basin.

There are two sources of rainfall in the Indus Basin: the Monsoon and the Western Disturbances. The former takes place from June to September and the latter from December to March (Lang and Barros, 2004; Bookhagen and Burbank, 2006).

The Monsoon season is caused by moist air currents from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Monsoon rainfall occurs mainly due to heat difference of the land and sea. The heat difference creates pressure gradients causing wind fluxes from ocean to land (Muslehuddin et al., 2005). The moist air from the ocean moves towards the north, passing through the hot basin plain (Houze et al., 2007). Most of the rainfall in summer is due to this phenomenon, causing intensive convective rainfall (Singh and Kumar, 1997). It is intensive in the months of June, July and August.

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The weather systems responsible for winter rainfall are mid latitude Western Disturbances (Thayyen and Gergan, 2009). They originate over the Caspian Sea and move from the west to east (Singh and Kumar, 1997).These are formed due to large scale interaction between the mid latitude and the tropical air masses. The interaction process results in the formation of westerly troposphere synoptic scale waves. These disturbances cause stratiform rainfall. The orographic effect may cause intensification, resulting in extensive cloudiness, heavy precipitation and strong winds. However, sometimes their movement slows down causing local heavy snowfall over the hilly areas (Dimri, 2006).

2.3 Indus river, major tributaries and doabs

The Indus River originates in Mount Kailash in Tibet (China) on the north side of the Himalayas at an altitude of 5,486 m (Jain et al., 2007). The Indus is fed by 24 tributaries with eight as major tributaries. The Jhelum, the Chenab, the Ravi, the Sutlej and the Beas Rivers are east flowing tributaries, while the Kabul, the Gomal and the Gilgit Rivers flow west and north, respectively.

The Jhelum River originates in the upper end of Kashmir valley and joins the Chenab River near Trimmu barrage in Pakistan. The origin of the Chenab is in the Himalayas and flows into the Himachal Pradesh (India) and Jammu and Kashmir states. Further down, the Chenab enters Pakistan upstream of the Marala barrage. The Ravi River originates near the Kangra district of Himachal Pradesh and joins the Chenab in Pakistan. The Sutlej River arises from the lakes of Mansarover and Rakastal in the Tibetan Plateau at an elevation of about 4,570 m. The Sutlej joins the Chenab at Panjand (Pakistan). The Beas River originates in the Rohtang Pass in Himalayas at an elevation of 3,960 m and joins the Sutlej above Harike in India before entering into Pakistan. The Chenab then flows into the Indus above Guddu barrage (Pakistan). The Gilgit River arises in the northern areas of Pakistan with upper reaches mostly glaciated and covered with permanent snow. The Kabul River originates in the south-eastern slopes of the Hindu Kush range in northern Pakistan. It flows through the Chitral valley of Pakistan and then enters Afghanistan to meet the Indus further down, above the Kalabagh barrage near Attock in Pakistan. All these tributaries of the Indus are generally fed by snowmelt and monsoon rains in the summer (85%) and partially by rains in winter (15%). The average seasonal flows of the major rivers in the Indus Basin with their source of origin are given in the Table 2.1.

Table 2.1 Average seasonal flows of the Indus River and its tributaries

Rivers Origin Length (km) Catchment area (km2) Average flow (km3yr-1) Major Reservoirs

Indus Mount kalash, Tibet(China)

3,180 288,000 83.15 (Tarbela) Tarbela

Jhelum Jammu & Kashmir state 816 39,200 28.7 (Mangla) Wular, Mangla Chenab Himachal Pardesh 1,232 41,760 29.0 (Marala) Salal, Baglihar Ravi Himachal Pardesh 880 24,960 4.46 (Madhopur) Thein

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Beas Himachal Pardesh

464 9,920 16.0 (Mandi) Pong,

Pandoh Sutlej Mount kalash,

Tibet(China) 1,536 75,369 18.0 (Ropar) Bhakra, Nangal Kabul Hindukush range 700 12,888 21.4 (Warsak)

Gilgit Lake Shandur, Pakistan

Sources: (Thatte, 2008; FFC, 2009; ICID, 2009)

The Indus plain consists of relatively flat zones between the Indus River and its major tributaries i.e. Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. Each flat zone is called a doab, meaning a land bounded by two rivers (Thatte, 2008). There are five doabs in the Indus Basin namely the Thal doab (land between the Indus and Jhelum rivers), the Chaj doab (between the Jhelum and Chenab rivers), the Rechna doab (between the Chenab and Ravi rivers), the Bari doab (between the Ravi and Beas rivers) and the Bist doab (between the Beas and Sutlej rivers). These plains produce little runoff compared to the hilly areas which contribute the major portion of the runoff. Table 2.2 summarizes the total and irrigated areas in each doab in the basin as well as Pakistan’s part of the basin.

Table 2.2 The doabs in the Indus Basin and area under irrigation in each doab

No Doab Encompassing rivers

Basin’s Area Pakistan’s Area Total area (mha) Irrigated area (mha) Total area (mha) Irrigated area (mha)

1 Thal Indus, Jhelum 3.2 1.25 3.2 1.25

2 Chaj Jhelum, Chenab 1.05 0.85 1.05 0.85 3 Rechna Chenab, Ravi 3.12 2.80 2.97 2.29

4 Bari Ravi, Beas 3.87 3.50 3.01 2.73

5 Bist Beas, Sutlej 1.02 0.83 − −

Sources: (Kureshy, 1977; Ullah et al., 2001; Qureshi et al., 2002; Cheema and Bastiaanssen, 2010)

2.4 Groundwater

A basin level study conducted by WAPDA Pakistan in 1965 described the nature of the aquifers in the basin. According to WAPDA (1965), “the Indus plain is underlain by deep,

mostly over 300 m deposit of unconsolidated, highly permeable alluvium consisting primarily of fine to medium sand, silt, and clay. Fine-grained deposits of low permeability generally are discontinuous so that sands, making up to 65 to 75 percent of the alluvium, serve as a unified, highly transmissive aquifer”. The use of groundwater for irrigation and

low levels of replenishment of the aquifers resulted in high levels of depletion.

The groundwater within the basin varies spatially in terms of its water table and water quality, depending on usage (agricultural and domestic). Before inception of irrigation systems in the basin, the groundwater table varied between 20-30 m. Recharge from earthen canals and irrigated fields resulted in a significant rising of the water table in certain

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locations, while the conjunctive use of ground water with surface water has resulted in lowering of the water table at other areas. The seasonal fluctuations of water table before and after monsoon for the year 2002 are provided in the Figure 2-3. These water table maps were provided by the International Water Logging and Salinity Research Institute (IWASRI).

Figure 2-3 Pre and post monsoon depth to water table in irrigated areas of the Pakistani part of the Indus Basin for the year 2002.

The water table depth in the irrigated areas of the Punjab and Sindh provinces is more than 30 m before monsoon except in a few pockets. Some areas of the aquifer have depths even more than 120 m. A rise in the water table is observed after the monsoon season especially in the Sindh province. These areas are under serious threat of water logging because water rises significantly after rains. In general, a continuous trend of water table decline is observed, especially in the Punjab province, which points to a serious imbalance between abstractions and recharge. Figure 2-4. for example, shows how the areas (with groundwater table depth of 30 m or more) increased between 1982 and 2002 in different canal commands in the Pakistani part of the basin. The canal command in the Punjab province showed a significant increase in the area with water table depths of 30 m or more over a 20 year period (1982-2002). The canal commands in the Sindh province showed a reduction in areas with a 30 m depth to water table.

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Figure 2-4 Change in area with groundwater table depth 30 m and more between 1982 and 2002 in different canal commands of the Indus Basin.

The era of unlimited dugwell and tubewell installations has encouraged farmers to augment shortages in surface water with groundwater (Shah et al., 2000). Excessive pumping resulted in deteriorating groundwater quality and diminishing phreatic surfaces across the Indus Basin. Poor quality groundwater and water logged soils occur in the downstream areas. A persistent flow of about 12.3 km3 is required below Kotri barrage (the last gauged structure on the Indus) to meet environmental flow requirements of the river, reduce salinity, and control sea water intrusion (PILDAT, 2003). Flow can be as low as 0.36 km3in drought years, to as high as 113 km3 in wet years.

2.5 Agriculture and cropping pattern

The Basin provides food for 200 million inhabitants. Irrigated agriculture is practiced in large parts of the basin (~22.6% of total area) to meet food requirements. Rainfall is not sufficient to meet the crop water requirements. Monthly crop water requirement (CWR: difference between ETo and effective rainfall) for two selected stations (Lahore and Hyderabad) is provided in

Figure 2-5. Hyderabad is located in a relatively drier part of the basin with low rainfall and

higher ETo values resulting in higher CWR as compared to Lahore. Lahore receives

sufficient rainfall especially in the monsoon; thus limiting CWR in the months of July and August.

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Figure 2-5 Monthly variation in crop water requirement at two selected location (Hyderabad and Lahore) representing the lower and middle part of the Indus Basin.

There are normally two agricultural growing seasons: the rabi covering November, December, January, February, March, April; and the kharif covering May, June, July, August, September and October.

Rainfed agriculture is practiced in upstream parts of the Indus Basin. “Savanna deciduous” (11.1%), “pastures deciduous alpine” (6.7%), “pastures deciduous” (6.5%), and “bare soil” (6.3%) are other dominant land use classes in the basin(Cheema and Bastiaanssen, 2010). Cropping pattern is defined as the sequence in which crops are grown in a given area over a period. A specific cropping pattern is in practice in the basin and farmers rarely change it. The growing season is sufficiently long for two crops and double cropping is widely practiced. There are varieties of crops grown, but wheat is the dominant crop in rabi and rice and cotton in kharif. There are also tracts of sugarcane that is a full year crop. Orchards are also grown on 3.6% of the basin area mixed with other crops (Figure 2-6 ). Seasonal fodder crops are also grown to meet the needs of livestock. Historical data show no significant change in cropping patterns.

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Understanding water resources conditions in data scarce river basins using intelligent pixel information, Case: Transboundary Indus Basin

Understanding water resources conditions in data scarce

river basins using intelligent pixel information

Case: Transboundary Indus Basin

Understanding water resources conditions in data scarce

river basins using intelligent pixel information

Case: Transboundary Indus Basin

Proefschrift

ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor

aan de Technische Universiteit Delft,

op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof. ir. K.C.A.M. Luyben,

voorzitter van het College voor Promoties,

in het openbaar te verdedigen

op dinsdaag 29 mei 2012 om 15:00 uur

door

Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud CHEEMA

Master of Science

University of Agriculture Faisalabad

geboren te Sargodha, Pakistan

Contents

Acknowledgements

Symbols and Abbreviations

List of symbols

List of Abbreviations

1 Introduction

1.1

Transboundary river basins

1.2

Water conflicts and treaties

1.3

Indus water treaty

1.4

Transboundary aquifer

1.5

Data availability and sharing issues

1.6

Redefinition of water resources management

1.7

Remote sensing in hydrology and water management

1.8

The research justification

2 Study area

2.1

Geographical description

2.2

Hydro-climatology

2.3

Indus river, major tributaries and doabs

2.4

Groundwater

2.5

Agriculture and cropping pattern