A large-scale biomass bulk terminal

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A LA

ALE

BIOMASS BULK TERMINAL

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"A large-scale biomass bulk terminal" by

Mi-Rong Wu

1. Despite the relatively small-scale contribution of biomass in the current energy producing industry, a large-scale biomass bulk terminal for handling both solid and liquid biomass is required to handle future demand.

2. A future sustainability certification system will affect the physical layout of a large-scale biomass bulk terminal.

3. As a pure service provider, it is very important for a large-scale biomass bulk terminal to have control on the arrival of both supply and demand. 4. The seeds for random generation in a Tomas simulation model are the same as some choices in life. You never know for sure if the seeds will bring you outstanding results or simply it is just a choice of bad luck. 5. What one can do out of love and respect is much more powerful and

lasts longer than what one does out of fear and stress.

6. The key characteristics for finishing a PhD project is not only one’s intelligence quotient but also the perseverance of the person.

7. Learning Dutch in the way how children learn after one is older is proven to be challenging. It is not because of aging, but because the fear of making mistakes in language.

8. Telling all the foreign students that Dutch is an easy language to learn does not make the learning process easier.

9. There is a difference between being direct and being rude. Saying "I am not rude, just being direct" only shows a lack of courtesy.

10. Any selection preference based on nationality, gender or educational level can be considered as a positive discrimination to encourage the participation of a certain group of people. However, it does not ease off the negative feeling brought by this kind of discrimination.

These propositions are regarded as opposable and defendable, and have been approved as such by the promotor, Prof.dr.ir. G. Lodewijks.

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Stellingen

behorende bij het proefschrift "A large-scale biomass bulk terminal"

door Mi-Rong Wu

1. Ondanks de relatief kleine bijdrage van biomassa in de huidige energie productie, is een grote-schaal op- en overslag voor vaste- en vloeibare biomassa nodig voor de toekomstige vraag.

2. Een toekomstig duurzaamheidscertificaat zal invloed hebben op de inrichting van een grote-schaal op- en overslagterminal.

3. Voor een biomassa op- en overslagterminal is het erg belangrijk om controle over toevoer en afvoer te hebben.

4. Met de initialisatie van de aselecte getallengenerator in een Tomas model gaat het hetzelfde als met de keuzes in het leven. Je weet nooit of de initialisatie uitzonderlijke resultaten oplevert of dat het resulteert in pech.

5. Hetgeen gedaan wordt uit liefde en respect is veel krachtiger dan hetgeen gedaan wordt uit angst en stress.

6. De belangrijkste eigenschap om een PhD project te voltooien is niet het hebben van een hoog IQ maar van een voldoende doorzettingsvermogen.

7. Het leren van Nederlands op latere leeftijd, op dezelfde manier als kinderen het leren, is moeilijk. Niet vanwege de leeftijd, maar vanwege de angst om fouten te maken.

8. Buitenlandse studenten vertellen dat Nederlands een makkelijke taal is maakt het leren van Nederlands niet sneller.

9. Er is een verschil tussen direct en onbeschoft. Zeggen: "Ik ben direct, niet onbeschoft", laat enkel een gebrek aan beleefdheid zien.

10. Elk selectieproces gebaseerd op nationaliteit, geslacht of opleid-ingsniveau kan als positieve discriminatie gezien worden. Desondanks zorgt het niet voor een vermindering van het negatieve gevoel dat met dit soort discriminatie gepaard gaat.

Deze stellingen worden opponeerbaar en verdedigbaar geacht en zijn als zodanig goedgekeurd door de promotor, Prof.dr.ir. G. Lodewijks.

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Proefschrift

ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Technische Universiteit Delft,

op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof.ir. K.C.A.M. Luyben voorzitter van het College van Promoties,

in het openbaar te verdedigen op dinsdag 4 december 2012 om 15:00 uur door

Mi-Rong WU,

Master of Science in Maritime Economics and Logistics, Master of Engineering in Hydraulic Engineering,

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Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotor: Prof.dr.ir. G.Lodewijks promotor

Copromotor: Dr.ir. D.L. Schott

Samenstelling promotiecommissie:

Rector Magnificus voorzitter

Prof.dr.ir. G. Lodewijks Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor

Dr.ir. D.L. Schott Technische Universiteit Delft, copromotor

Prof.dr. A.P.C. Faaij Universiteit Utrecht

Prof.dr.ir. L.A. Tavasszy Technische Universiteit Delft

Prof.dr. H. Geerlings Erasmus University Rotterdam

Prof.ir. T. Vellinga Technische Universiteit Delft

The research described in this thesis was financially supported by the Shell/TU Delft Sustainable Mobility Program.

Published and distributed by: Mi-Rong Wu E-mail: m.r.wu@ddmr.nl

ISBN: 978-94-6186-076-7

Keywords: biomass, terminal, bulk material, simulation. Cover Illustration by Ir. P.J.T. Arts

All rights reserved. No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission of the author.

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1 Introduction 1

1.1 Background . . . 1

1.2 Problem statement . . . 4

1.3 Research objective and main research questions . . . 4

1.4 Thesis outline . . . 5

2 Biomass and bioenergy market 9 2.1 Biomass materials and products . . . 9

2.2 Long term global supply potential of biomass . . . 10

2.3 The international market . . . 15

2.4 Biomass supply chain . . . 18

2.5 Future sustainability certification . . . 20

2.5.1 Existing frameworks of certification systems . . . 20

2.5.2 Proposed biomass sustainability certification systems . . . 21

2.5.3 Potential impacts brought by possible biomass certification sys-tems . . . 22

2.6 Estimated demand of the European Union in 2020 . . . 24

2.6.1 Required material amount to meet the EU demand in 2020 . . . . 26

2.7 Conclusions . . . 29

3 Design considerations and assumptions 31 3.1 Literature research on terminal design . . . 31

3.2 Overview of bulk carriers and tankers . . . 34

3.3 Overview of current equipment . . . 35

3.3.1 Handling facilities options . . . 36

3.3.2 Storage equipment choices . . . 51

3.4 Environmental concerns . . . 57

3.5 Significant factors for terminal design . . . 59

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viii CONTENTS

3.5.2 Specific concerns . . . 60

3.6 Estimation of terminal capacity . . . 66

3.6.1 Design requirements for a large-scale biomass bulk terminal . . . 66

3.6.2 Annual import amount of biomass in the Netherlands . . . 67

3.6.3 First alternative . . . 68

3.6.4 Second alternative . . . 69

3.7 Potential cargo . . . 71

3.7.1 Solid biomass materials and products . . . 72

3.7.2 Liquid biomass materials and products . . . 73

4 Biomass material characteristics 77 4.1 Basic properties from literature and standards . . . 77

4.1.1 Solid biomass . . . 78

4.1.2 Liquid biomass . . . 81

4.2 Decisive handling properties . . . 86

4.2.1 Solid biomass . . . 86

4.2.2 Liquid biomass . . . 88

4.3 Experiments for the physical properties of solid biomass . . . 90

4.3.1 Test materials . . . 90 4.3.2 Test methods . . . 92 4.4 Experimental results . . . 104 4.4.1 Particle density . . . 108 4.4.2 Bulk density . . . 108 4.4.3 Moisture content . . . 110 4.4.4 Sieving test . . . 110

4.4.5 Large-scale annular shear test . . . 112

4.4.6 Wall friction angle . . . 113

4.4.7 Angle of repose . . . 115

4.4.8 Breakage . . . 117

4.4.9 Summary of the experiments . . . 120

5 Handling and storage equipment 123 5.1 Comparison of material properties . . . 123

5.1.1 Physical properties of coal . . . 124

5.1.2 Comparison of the physical characteristics from solid biomass and coal . . . 124

5.1.3 Comparison of the physical characteristics from pyrolysis oils with other selected liquid biomass substances . . . 127

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5.2 Capacity of equipment on existing dry bulk terminals . . . 128 5.2.1 Ship unloader . . . 130 5.2.2 Bunker . . . 130 5.2.3 Belt conveyor . . . 132 5.2.4 Transfer station . . . 134 5.2.5 Stacker . . . 135 5.2.6 Storage . . . 135 5.2.7 Reclaimer . . . 135 5.2.8 Ship/Barge loader . . . 135 5.2.9 Loading station . . . 136

5.3 Required changes for existing bulk terminals to handle biomass . . . 136

5.4 Required equipment type and capacity for solid biomass . . . 141

5.4.1 Ship unloader . . . 142 5.4.2 Bunker . . . 143 5.4.3 Belt Conveyor . . . 149 5.4.4 Transfer chute . . . 150 5.4.5 Storage . . . 156 5.4.6 Stacker . . . 158 5.4.7 Reclaimer . . . 160 5.4.8 Ship loader . . . 160 5.4.9 Loading station . . . 160

5.5 Concerns for handling and storing biomass . . . 161

5.5.1 Incidents and undesirable effects of biomass . . . 161

5.5.2 Recommendations on precautions and damage control . . . 163

6 Simulation model 167 6.1 The "black box" approach . . . 167

6.2 Operational cost considerations . . . 170

6.3 Key performance indicators . . . 172

6.4 The structure and the system element classes . . . 173

6.4.1 The model structure . . . 173

6.4.2 The attributes of the system element classes and processes . . . . 174

6.5 Verification of the simulation model . . . 178

6.5.1 The queueing theory equations . . . 178

6.5.2 Model accuracy . . . 179

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x CONTENTS

7 Simulation experimental results 185

7.1 Input scenarios and experimental plan . . . 185

7.1.1 Input variables, constants and scenarios . . . 186

7.1.2 Initial terminal configuration . . . 190

7.1.3 Experimental plan . . . 190

7.2 Simulation results . . . 193

7.2.1 Supply ships waiting time . . . 193

7.2.2 Transporters average waiting time . . . 198

7.2.3 Required Storage capacity . . . 203

7.2.4 Material average storage time . . . 208

7.3 Assessment of simulation results . . . 212

7.3.1 Selection criteria . . . 212

7.3.2 Final configurations . . . 214

7.3.3 Required terminal storage capacity . . . 215

7.3.4 Required storage land size . . . 218

7.3.5 Material average storage time . . . 224

8 Conclusions and Recommendations 231 8.1 Conclusions . . . 231

8.2 Recommendations . . . 236

Appendix A Experimental raw results 239

Bibliography 281 Glossary 283 Summary 287 Samenvatting 293 中中中文文文總總總結結結 299 Acknowledgements 303 Curriculum vitae 307

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Introduction

1.1 Background

With the growing population on the earth and the trend towards more industrialization, the demand for energy has increased significantly [1], as shown by Figure 1.1. As the majority of current economies and developments depends on fossil fuels [1, 2], between 2004 and 2040 an 83% of overall increase in energy demand is expected [3]. Fossil fuels such as coal and oil are non-renewable energy sources that create greenhouse gas emissions, cause global climate change [4], and cause ecological tragedy such as recent oil spill event at the Mexican Gulf region [5]. The deposits of fossil fuels are not endless, and one day the available reserves will be depleted completely [6].

Figure 1.1:World primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario [1].

Many countries have been researching alternative/renewable energy, such as wind energy, solar energy, and biomass based energy. This is due to two main reasons: to improve the environmental conditions of the Earth, and/or the security of supply in terms of energy resources. The European Union is no exception: according to the Renewable Energy Road

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2 Introduction

Map [7], the share of renewable energy will increase, in which biomass and bioenergy will play a key role. The Biomass Action Plan [8] points out that an self-support approach to meet the EU needs is neither possible nor desirable, this is further supported by Capros et al. [9] and McCormick and Kåberger [10]. Figure 1.2 and Figure 1.3 illustrate the demand and supply of energy within the EU. Figure 1.2 indicates that by the year 2030 the estimated gross consumption within the EU is 2000 Million Tons of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe), yet Figure 1.3 shows that domestic fossil fuel production is around 80 Mtoe, and domestic biomass production is around 158 Mtoe. The fact that the supply cannot meet the demand suggests that international import is unavoidable to meet the EU directive targets (as stated in the Renewable Energy Road Map) for the future, as can be seen in Figure 1.4.

Nuclear Solids Lquids Gas Renewables 0 500 1000 1500 2000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Mtoe

Figure 1.2:Gross inland consumption within the EU [9].

Among all the renewable energy options, biomass is the only possibility that can be used to produce a wide range of products. Based on different conversion techniques, biomass materials and products are available in many types and forms, including solid shape (e.g. wood pellets, wood chips), liquids (e.g. biodiesel, ethanol, vegetable oils), and gaseous (e.g. synthesis gas, biogas) [11]. They can be used in the energy sector (e.g. wood pellets in co-firing power plants) to produce electricity and heat, and for transportation purposes (e.g. biodiesel as a transportation fuel) [11, 12].

As mentioned before, the European Union has been setting up several directives (e.g. the Renewable Energy Road Map [7]) in order to make it mandatory to use renewable energy sources, including biomass materials and products. It boosts numerous studies in the fields of conversion techniques [13–15], the pre-treatments for biomass materials [16–18],

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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 0 Mtoe Coal Lignite Oil Gas

(a) Indigenous production of fossil fuels within the EU.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 3 0 Mtoe Crops for biofuel Residues and Other crops Waste Wood and wood waste

(b) Indigenous biomass-waste production within the EU.

Figure 1.3:Indigenous production within the EU [9].

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 0 % Total Solids Oil Gas

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4 Introduction

and the potential available amount for different regions in the world in the future based on different scenarios [12, 19–21]. Research on the prospects of large-scale import of biomass for specific countries within the EU (e.g. import of biomass into Sweden [22]) and from the overall EU and international perspectives [23, 24] does exist. In addition, Bradley et al. [25] also points out that shipping has been the main way of international transport for saw wood, and is also the main method for transporting biomass. Panamax vessels have been deployed to operate on various routes (e.g. from North America, Canada, South Africa, China, India, Sweden and Indonesia) to transport wood pellets and oil seeds [25]. Given the fact that shipping will be the main mode of transportation of biomass materials and products, attention should be paid to the design of import and handling facilities. Hence, it is crucial to investigate what elements need to be taken into account in order to design a large-scale bulk terminal dedicated to handle and store biomass materials and products. Under the concern of sustainability, such a terminal will also need to comply with a possible sustainability certification system in the future [26, 27]. Therefore, it is also very important to understand how such a certification system impacts the design of a terminal.

1.2 Problem statement

Bulk terminals have been designed, built and operated all over the world for a long time [28]; yet so far there is only little information in the literature on a terminal design method [28, 29]. Furthermore, although there are terminals now handling biomass materials and products, the scale is relatively small compared to the amount of other bulk materials that have been handled and studied fully (e.g. coal) [30–32].

Differences exist between handling of biomass and other bulk materials such as coal or iron ore [33, 34]. In order to handle biomass materials and products properly from an engineering point of view, it is essential to understand their complete range of properties (i.e. both chemical and physical characteristics). This is because differences in the material characteristics might lead to differences in handling. Standards and research for the properties of biomass do exist [35–39], but still the results of these studies are not sufficient enough to give a complete understanding of their flow-ability and handling characteristics as for other bulk materials.

1.3 Research objective and main research questions

This research is a multi-disciplinary work, combining different topics such as logistics, transport engineering, sustainability, material handling, economics, and energy. By

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applying known principles and skills (e.g. handling of bulk materials) to new subjects (i.e. biomass). The main research questions of this research project are as followed:

• How important are biomass materials and products? What kind of scale can be expected in the future when biomass materials and products are imported into the European Union?

• How do the characteristics of biomass materials and products affect the material handling and the equipment at a terminal?

• What are the required storage capacity and the required storage land size of a future large-scale biomass bulk terminal?

To answer these main research questions, several sub-questions need to be examined: - What are biomass materials and products? How do the international biomass market

and its supply chain look like? What are the future expectations of biomass materials and products and the international biomass trade?

- What are the considerations and assumptions of terminal design? - What are the characteristics of biomass materials and products?

- How to choose equipment that is suitable for handling biomass materials and products?

- How does the structure of a simulation model used to assist the design look like? what are the functions and process of the simulation model?

1.4 Thesis outline

The outline of this thesis is shown by Figure 1.5. Chapter 2 presents basic knowledge on biomass materials and products, the global supply potential and demand of biomass, the international bioenergy market and its supply chain. In addition, the possible future sustainability certification systems are examined. Thereafter, based on the future EU directive targets, the demand of biomass for the European Union is estimated.

In Chapter 3, a literature research is performed on terminal design and the overview of equipment used on terminals. Important factors generally for bulk terminal design are identified and several specific design concerns essential for designing a biomass bulk terminal are distinguished. Based on the results from Chapter 2, the terminal capacity is estimated together with identified potential cargos and the ratio between solid and liquid cargos.

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6 Introduction

It is essential to understand the material properties of the selected biomass in order to know how to handle and store them. Chapter 4 provides the overview of material properties of the potential cargos from various literature and existing international and national specifications, together with important properties related to handling. Experiments are carried out in order to study the unknown physical material properties and the characteristics when the materials interact with the storage and handling equipment. Chapter 5 firstly presents the comparison between coal and the selected solid biomass to see how different their handling properties are, and general calculations on the performance and capacity of equipment at existing dry bulk terminal. Typical dry bulk and liquid bulk terminals are examined to see what kind of adjustments in terms of equipment types and terminal layout need to be done to cope with biomass material characteristics. Quantitative requirements for handling biomass are discussed to choose suitable types of equipment (in terms of capacity and the number of equipment). Various material parameters and the properties when material in contact with equipment are discussed next, and their practical applications (e.g. hopper design, chute design) are presented. Special concerns for handling biomass and discussions on the influences brought by biomass material properties during handling and storing are also presented.

A simulation model is built based on the "black box" approach to cope with the stochastic situations (e. g. the arrival pattern of supply ships) in the design. Chapter 6 describes the key performance indicators (KPIs) used to assess the outcomes of the simulation model, the overall structure of the simulation model, and the system element classes in the simulation model. The verification and the validation of the simulation model are also included in this chapter.

Chapter 7 presents the initial configurations of a large-scale biomass bulk terminal and the input scenarios. The experimental plan made for using the simulation model together with the results obtained from the simulations. The simulation results are further assessed by several sensitivity analyses. Based on the assessment, the terminal configuration with the number of service points and their capacities, and the required storage land size can be determined.

Finally, chapter 8 shows the conclusions of this PhD research project, and the recommen-dations for future research.

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Chapter 4 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 7 Chapter 8

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Biomass and bioenergy market

∗

This chapter focuses on the supply and demand of biomass materials and products, as well as on the international biomass market and the biomass supply chain. Different types of biomass materials and products available for various sectors are presented, and the long term global supply potential together with the regions of supply possibilities are identified. In addition, the possible future sustainability certification systems are examined. Based on the future directive targets, the estimated demand of the European Union are determined.

2.1 Biomass materials and products

The use of bio-based resources for energy use has long standing history, such as the use of wood branches for fire or cooking purposes in the old time. For modern energy usage, biomass can be used as transport fuels, for power generation, and so on [12]. Energy produced from biomass materials and products is the main renewable source for renewable energy in the European Union, and accounts for two third of the share, as shown by Figure 2.1 [43].

According to the EU legislation, the definition of biomass is [44]:

"the biodegradable fraction of products, waste and residues from agriculture (including vegetal and animal substances), forestry and related industries, as well as the biodegradable fraction of industrial and municipal waste."

From the definition above it is clear that the range of biomass materials and products is quite wide. Agricultural and forestry residuals (e.g. coffee husks, wood felling residues), by-products and waste (e.g. manure, used oils and fats), and dedicated energy crops (e.g. eucalyptus, rapeseed, miscanthus) are examples of biomass resources [11].

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10 Biomass and bioenergy market

Within the biomass and wastes category, wood and wood

of the total energy production from renewables. Municipal

solid wastes represent 8% of this total amount while biofuels

and biogas account for 5% and 4% respectively. It should be

mentioned that municipal wastes also includes the

non-biological fraction as many Member States are unable to split

municipal wastes into biological and non-biological content,

Biogas 4% Municipal solid waste 8% Wood 52% Biofuels 5% Solar 1% Geothermal 4% Wind 6%

Biomass and wastes 68% Hydro

21%

Figure 2.1:Primary energy production from renewable energy sources in the EU, 2006, EU-27 [43].

Figure 2.2 and Figure 2.3 show some examples of biomass materials and products. Most of the time conversion techniques need to be applied to these biomass raw materials, convert them into solid, liquid, or gaseous states. Conversion usually is done by a thermal, mechanical or biological process [11].

Table 2.1 gives the overview of these conversion pathways. Examples of solid biomass materials and products are: log woods, pellets, briquettes, sawdust, wood chips, bark, straw bales and so on [36]; while in liquid status the biomass products can be vegetable oil, biodiesel, ethanol, bio-oil, methanol, and synthetic fuel. Hydrogen and biogas are the most commonly used biofuels; both are produced by biochemical process [11].

2.2 Long term global supply potential of biomass

In addition to be the main renewable energy source in the European Union, energy scenarios from various studies also suggest that biomass will account for large shares in the future energy system [19, 47, 48]. Therefore, it is important to investigate the global supply potential of biomass materials and products, in order to understand how much biomass is available and where.

Studies such as [12, 19–21] have been done to explore the long term global technical potential amount of biomass for energy use, based on different biomass resources, different assumptions and scenarios. These studies show for example that dedicated lignocellulose energy crop will play a key role in the future, but this depends extensively on future developments of agricultural technologies, the availability of land, and the type of land [19, 21].

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(a) Miscanthus [45].

(b) Rapeseed [46].

Figure 2.2:Energy crops.

(a) Cocoa Husks (material provided by Delta N.V.). (b) Sawdust (material provided by Electrabel Gelder-land).

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Table 2.1:Conversion techniques for biomass [11].

Conversion process Conversion method

Product Market

Combustion Heat Electricity

Thermal conversion

Gasification Fuel gas Heat, Chemicals,

Electricity, Transport fuels

Pyrolysis Bio-oil, Fuel gas Heat, Chemicals,

Electricity, Transport fuels Mechanical

conversion

Mechanical Rape oil, Wood

pellets, Wood chips

Transport fuel

Biological conversion

Fermentation Ethanol Transport fuel,

Chemicals

Digestion Bio-gas Electricity

In general it is rather complex to predict the future available amount of biomass materials and products due to uncertainties in future developments. Due to the uncertainties, different scenarios and assumptions have been used to predict potential supply amounts in the long term future [12, 19–21]. Faaij et al. [24] and IEA [12] summarized different remarks and assumptions to give an overview for the global potential biomass supply. Table 2.2 shows that the production potential of biomass in the future is abundant if favorable conditions are met in the future. The possible range is rather large, depending on the scenarios/assumptions. Currently the use of bioenergy includes food based components (e.g. vegetable oils). In the long term future, it is expected to shift to lignocellulose crops.

The potential bioenergy supply amount is unevenly spread out geographically. Some regions have better potential to export biomass, while other regions need to import biomass to fulfill the need [23]. To estimate the production potential in each geographical region in the world, Smeets et al. [21] considered the following key variables and used the Quickscan model (which includes key variables and their correlations) to analyze the global supply potential in 2050:

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Table 2.2: Overview of the global potential bio-energy supply on the long term for a number of

categories and the main pre-conditions and assumptions that determine these potentials [12].

Biomass category

Main assumptions and remarks Potential

bioenergy supply in 2050 Energy farming on current agricultural land

Potential land surplus: 0-4 Gha1_{(average: 1-2 Gha). A} large surplus requires structural adaptation towards more efficient agricultural production systems. When this is not feasible, the bioenergy potential could be reduced to zero. On average higher yields are likely because of better soil quality: 8-12 dry tonne/ha/yr is assumed2.

0 - 700 EJ3 (more average development: 100 - 300 EJ) Biomass production on marginal lands

On a global scale a maximum land surface of 1.7 Gha could be involved. Low productivity of 2-5 dry tonne/ha/yr2_{. The net supplies could be low due to poor} economics or competition with food production.

<60 - 110 EJ

Residues from agriculture

Potential depends on yield/product ratios and the total agricultural land area as well as type of production system. Extensive production systems require re-use of residues for maintaining soil fertility. Intensive systems allow for higher utilization rates of residues.

15 - 70 EJ

Forest residues The sustainable energy potential of the world’s forests is unclear: some natural forests are protected. Low value: includes limitations with respect to logistics and strict standards for removal of forest material. High value: technical potential. Figures include processing residues.

30 - 150 EJ

Dung Use of dried dung. Low estimate based on global current use. High estimate: technical potential. Utilization (collection) in the longer term is uncertain.

5 - 55 EJ

Organic wastes Estimate on basis of literature values. Strongly dependent on economic development, consumption and the use of bio-materials. Figures include the organic fraction of MSW and waste wood. Higher values possible by more intensive use of bio-materials.

5 - 50 EJ

Combined potential

Most pessimistic scenario: no land available for energy farming; only utilization of residues. Most optimistic scenario: intensive agriculture concentrated on the better quality soils. In parentheses: average potential in a world aiming for large-scale deployment of bioenergy.

40 - 1100 EJ (200 - 400 EJ)

1 Giga Hectare = 1×109_Hectare

2 Heating value: 19 GJ/ton dry matter 3 Exa Joule = 1×1018_Joule

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• Three types of biomass

- Dedicated woody bioenergy crop on surplus agricultural land - Agricultural and forestry wastes and residues

- Surplus forest growth

• Several different assumptions and scenarios in - Agricultural production technology - Population growth

- Demand for food, feed, and land use - Land use patterns

- Land availability

Figure 2.4 illustrates the biomass potential geographically, based on the different agri-cultural production systems presented in Table 2.3. The result is corresponding with another study [20], both indicating that regions with good potential are Latin America, Africa, the Baltic region, Oceania, and North America. Asia is also one of the regions with good potential; however, the demand in Asia is also very high due to the large and growing population there. Even though some regions and countries have potentials to export biomass, local use has priority over exporting [49]. When local use is considered, Hansson et al. [22] estimated that in the year 2050, under favorable conditions, the trade flow potential for countries that need to import biomass will be in the range of 80-150 EJ at global level.

Table 2.3:Definitions of four agricultural production systems [21].

Factor System 1 System 2 System 3 System 4

Animal production system used (pastoral, mixed, landless)

Mixed Mixed Landless Landless

Feed conversion efficiency High High High High

Level of technology for crop production

Very high Very high Very high Super high Water supply for agriculture

(rain-fed = r.f., irrigated = irri.)

r.f. r.f. and irri. r.f. and irri. r.f. and irri.

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75 168 204 39 Oceania 55 93114 40 2222 19 2530 13 E.Europe 13 2429 5 CIS & Baltic States 111 223 269 83 162 234 281 89 117 282 347 49 231 39 2 So uth Asia 26 3137 23 28 158 194 22 1273 1548 610 367 Oceania 55 93114 40 E.Europe CIS & Baltic States So uth Asia 26 3137 23

on surplus agricultural land dedicated woody bioenergy crops wastes and residues

agricultural and forestry surplus forest growth Africa

sub-Saharan North Africa Middle East & W.Europe

East Asia Japan

North America

Caribean& Latin America

World

Figure 2.4: Total global bioenergy production potential in 2050 based on different agricultural

production systems [21].

Although the researches [20, 21] showed that global potential of lignocellulose biomass might be significant, not only biomass feedstock will be traded and transported. Refined biomass (e.g. wood pellets) is highly preferable due to its higher energy content [50, 51]. Moreover, biomass derived fuels (e.g. ethanol from lignocellulosic biomass, methanol, and hydrogen) can be cost effective within one to two decades [15]. Therefore these biomass components are considered in the estimation presented in Chapter 3. It can be concluded that in the long term future, the production potential of lignocellulosic biomass is very large. Energy crops will contribute the majority of the production potential.

2.3 The international market

Because each region in the world is different in potential supply and potential need for biomass, there are chances for the trading between countries and continents. In this context, the existing international trade is relatively small but will grow to a significant volume make it feasible to study further [24, 51, 52].

Many developing countries and regions in the world have large production potentials with dedicated energy plantation (e.g. ethanol) and agro-forestry residue. Due to lower biomass production costs (e.g. lower costs in labor and land); opportunities are offered for these countries to export biomass/derived biomass products to developed countries [23]. Under sustainable management, the export possibilities will bring stable and reliable income for

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rural areas, and boost the development [12]. Eventually some countries or regions will become net exporters (e.g. Latin America, the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa) to supply biomass to high demand markets, such as North America and Western Europe [21]. Heinimö et al. [49] pointed out those materials that are currently traded internationally for energy uses are: wood pellets, ethanol, vegetable oils, fuel wood, and charcoal. Compared to other end use, international biomass trade for energy purpose is much smaller. Table 2.4 gives an overview of world biomass production and trade in 2004.

Table 2.4:An overview of world biomass production and international trade in 2004 [49].

Product World production

in 2004

Volume of international trade in 2004

Trade percentage Industrial wood and

forest products

Industrial round wood 1.646×109m3 121×106m3 7 % Wood chips and particles 197×106_m3 _37×106_m3 _{19 %}

Sawn timber 416×106_m3 _130×106_m3 _{31 %}

Pulp for paper production 189×106ton 42×106ton 22 % Paper and paperboard 354×106_ton _111×106_ton _{31 %}

Agricultural products

Maize 725×106ton 83×106ton 11 %

Wheat 630×106_ton _118×106_ton _{19 %}

Barley 154×106_ton _22×106_ton _{14 %}

Oats 26×106ton 2.5×106ton 10 %

Rye 18×106_ton _2×106_ton _{11 %}

Rice 608×106_ton _28×106_ton _{5 %}

Palm Oil 37×106ton 23×106ton 62 %

Rapeseed 46×106_ton _8.5×106_ton _{18 %}

Rapeseed Oil 16×106_ton _2.5×106_ton _{16 %}

Solid and liquid biofuels

Ethanol 41×106_m3 _3.5×106_m3 _{9 %}

Biodiesel 3.5×106_ton _<0.5×106_ton _{<14 %}

Fuel wood 1.772×109_m3 _3.5×106_m3 _{0.2 %}

Charcoal 44×106_ton _1×106_ton _{2 %}

Wood pellets 4×106_ton _1×106_ton _{25 %}

A key issue in the international biomass trade is sustainability. Sustainability criteria are not restricted to ecological matters (e.g. biodiversity, emissions, environmental impacts),

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but also comprises other social and economic aspects [7]. In the context of large-scale international biomass trade, these environmental and socio-economic concerns of large-scale production in developing countries (that export to developed countries) are of importance [22]. Sustainability for the large-scale international biomass trade will be further elaborated in Section 2.5.

Faaij et al. [23] indicated that various barriers exist currently for sustainable international biomass trade. Despite the barriers, possible solutions have been discussed. Examples of these barriers and possible solutions are:

• Logistical barriers:

- Under-developed pre-treatment

- Lack of significant amount to reach economies of scale

- Local truck transportation may influence total costs and overall energy balance - Harbor and terminal suitability to handle large biomass streams

- Logistic capacity (vessel) and increasing price • International trade barriers:

- Lack of clear technical specifications for biomass and specific biomass import regulations

- Trade tariff and quota • Sustainability concerns:

- Various environmental issues (e.g. biodiversity, monoculture, soil erosion, water management)

- Social impacts (e.g. quality of employment) • Other barriers:

- Unstable supporting policies

- Fluctuating properties of materials (quality control) - Immature markets obstructs long term contracting * Possible solutions:

* International classification and certification of biomass * Harmonized policies

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* Technical standards

* Gradual build-up of logistic capacity

Another significant obstacle for research in international biomass trade is lack of trans-parency and reliable statistical data [30, 53]. In general the statistics on production and consumption of biofuels are available in a well-organized way (e.g. FAO, IEA), yet statistics concerning the international biofuel trades are scattered and sometimes not available [53, 54]. Subsequently, the international flows are limited to rough estimation [53]. IEA Task 40 held a work shop in February 2008 to deal with this problem [54].

2.4 Biomass supply chain

To understand what kind of transport modes are used to move biomass materials and products, it is essential to understand the biomass supply chain.

Inter-continental trade of biomass could be economically feasible and does not necessarily lead to dramatic energy losses [24]. Studies such as [50, 51] have been done to assess global biomass supply chain performance, based on different scenarios, and in terms of total costs and energy consumption. In addition to global scale, other researches like [22, 52, 55] discussed country specific situations. Within the global scale studies [50, 51], models were set up with several input variables, such as:

- Biomass materials (bulk density, Lower Heating Value (LHV)/Higher Heating Value (HHV), conversion efficiency)

- Operation (supply window, operation window, and harvest window)

- Logistic (distance between Central Gathering Point (CGP), production sites, import and export terminals)

- Other general parameters (interest rate, energy use, scale, embodied costs, and effective use of equipment)

Figure 2.5 is used by Suurs [50] and Hamelinck [51] to show how they consider the biomass logistic chain.

Both [50] and [51] assumed that the long distance transport will be done by rail or ship, while trucks are used for short distance transport. Biomass will be collected from production sites, with an optional conversion, and then transported to a Central Gathering Point (CGP). The CGP can offer facilities for smaller sites to perform cost intensive pre-treatment or conversion with economies of scale. Afterwards, materials are carried by ship or train. For the first possibility, biomass will be transported to an export harbor,

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River / Ocean Exporting country Importing country Importing country Production sites + CGP Harbour Harbour Energy plant Energy plant Train transport Border Truck transport Ship transport

Figure 2.5:Geographical systems outline [50].

and then shipped to the import harbor. [50] and [51] assumed that from the import harbor the biomass will be further carried to end users by trucks (this is only applicable for ship transport). As for second choice, it is assumed that biomass is directed transported to the end users by rail. In practice, the transport modes available to shift biomass to hinterland include barges, trains, trucks, and pipelines.

The analysis in [50] and [51] showed that there are many elements that can affect the performance of biomass supply chain, such as fuel prices, transport distance, and equipment operation windows. The more preferable material forms are the refined biomass (e.g. wood pellets) and liquid biomass (e.g. pyrolysis oil, ethanol, FAME, methanol), due to higher energy density. Raw biomass (e.g. wood chips, bales) should be avoided over long distance transport, due to dry matter loss and potential health hazard. As for transport mode over long distances, ship transport will be the favorable way. It contributes only a modest part of total costs and it shows a low energy use per ton-km. For rail, the break-even distance is from 1,000 km up to 7,000 km [50]. Suurs [50] and Hamelinck [51] concluded that for intra-continent international transport (e.g. intra-Europe), the train is more advantageous; whereas for inter-continent international transport (e.g. from Latin America to Western Europe), a ship is suitable.

Other country specific researches [22, 52, 55] also supported the main results from [50] and [51], i.e. the most preferable supply chain is long distance transport via shipping, with refined and liquid biomass. Furthermore, these country specific researches also suggested the following:

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- Although the estimation of costs for ship transport is low, Ericsson and Nilsson [52] concluded that loading and discharging can make up to 30-50% of the transportation costs across the Baltic Sea. Hansson et al. [22] proposed that the difference in handling costs could be caused by different transport routes. If the shipping costs are high, then the relative importance of handling is lower.

- The specialization of ports seemed to be a major determinant for handling and storage of large biomass flows [22, 55].

- Other elements, for instance the infrastructure (e.g. depth of ports, quay length) and location of biofuel plants near by ports, could also influence port’s possibilities to handle large biomass flows [22].

Although country specific studies did investigate the biomass supply chain in the perspective of sea ports, no studies have been done specifically for the design of dedicated biomass terminals.

It is concluded that the import of biomass into the European Union will be long distance, inter-continental transport. The materials that will be imported include solid and liquid biomass feedstock (e.g. vegetable oils), refined biomass (e.g. wood pellets), and derived biomass product (e.g. pyrolysis oil, biodiesel).

2.5 Future sustainability certification

Demand for sustainability certification systems that control large-scale biomass trade is due to the considerations of potential negative effects such as competition between food and biomass production [27, 56, 57]. In this section, the proposed sustainability certification systems will be discussed, and the potential impacts brought by these possible certification scenarios to the large-scale biomass bulk terminal are presented.

2.5.1 Existing frameworks of certification systems

Although international biomass trade market can provide a win-win situation for both exporting and importing countries, negative impacts brought by the production can occur. Negative effects can be on ecological system/biodiversity (e.g. mono-production of energy crops), socio-economic aspects, green house balance, competition with food, and the environment [26, 56, 58]. Thus, sustainable production is now a key concern [58, 59]. To utilize bioenergy in a sustainable way, the dedicated energy crop should not compete with food and feed. In addition, local development and local environment (e.g. biodiversity, water and soil managements, etc.) should also be taken into account [19, 21, 23, 24].

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Currently there is no concrete sustainable biomass certification system for sustainable biomass trade available [27]. However, many works have been done in the field of sustainability certification for a wide range of products. Within the existing international certification schemes and indicator systems, criteria and basic principles and process address sound resource management and responsible enterprise behavior [26]. Existing certification systems suitable for developing a biomass certification system are the ones for forestry, agricultural products and electricity, as summarized in Figure 2.6.

Transport + Storage

Biomass production

Forestry Agriculture Plantations Residues (forestry, agriculture, others) Chain feedstock Trading conditions

Figure 2.6: Existing area demanding criteria and indicator development for sustainable biomass

trade [26, 27].

Various parties, such as national governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), companies (producers, industry), international bodies and initiatives, and intergovernmen-tal organizations have shown their interests for biomass certification [26]. Several criteria and indicators (e.g. biodiversity, economic prosperity, the environment) based on these interests have been set, and the more detailed overview of these developments can be found in [26, 27, 59].

2.5.2 Proposed biomass sustainability certification systems

Hamelinck et al. [56] indicated that three types of certification systems can be used for following the biomass in the production and transport chain, namely:

- Chain of custody (Track-and-trace)

In this certification system, the whole supply chain (i.e. from source to the last point of sale) is independently monitored, and the biomass is physically traceable. Information is collected to map the whole chain of owners, and is registered in a database.

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- Temporary decoupling

The physical flow cannot be followed exactly at some points in the biomass delivery chain. For instance, biofuels for transportation use are made of a blend of feedstock: biodiesel from soya, rapeseed oil and palm oil. In this case, when the concern for the sustainability of palm oil is raised, to declare that a fraction of the product is physically palm oil free is impossible, although on an administrative basis it can be done. Thus, when international shipments take place, the characteristics/composition of the product should be measured both in export and import ports in order to prove that the composition is the same.

- Full decoupling

This is a sort of "book-and-claim" system that decouples the physical product and the administrative process. A certain quantity of sustainable product have been place in the market and recorded in a central database. Independent of the actual origin of the physical product and the physical product itself, buyers for such product can buy and claim the sustainability. According to Hamelinck et al. [56], the disadvantage of such a system is that even though the product is not sustainable, by buying such a certificate, it is made sustainable by buying such a certificate.

From the point of views of Hamelinck et al. [56], it is expect that the track-and-trace system will be set first, and in the longer run, a shift to temporary decoupling system may be considered.

2.5.3 Potential impacts brought by possible biomass certification

systems

It is quite possible that the sustainability certification system will be set for sustainable biomass trade; the next question is how to implement such system. Van Dam et al. [26] proposed five different approaches, as illustrated by Figure 2.7. Since a large-scale biomass bulk terminal fits in the "international end-use" side of Figure 2.7, Approach 3, 4, and 5 might be used as implementation methods. In this case, possibly it is mandatory to comply with such certification scheme. However, so far the implications for terminal are not identified in the studies of [56], [27], and [26].

Three possible certification systems as mentioned above, following potential impacts may be brought to the terminal:

- Chain of custody (Track-and-trace)

In terms of terminal operations, this certification system brings impacts to information flow, handling processes and equipment, and separation during storage. Due to the requirement from track-and-trace system, more information flows are

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Figure 2.7:Proposed approaches for implementation of biomass certification [26].

needed between the terminal, shipping companies, and the next cargo owners (e.g. power plants), this fact is supported by [27].

Furthermore, products that are sustainable may need to be physically separated from those are not. In a way the separation might bring lesser impacts to handling of solid biomass than to liquid biomass, and is easier to achieve for solid biomass. This is because it is easier to physically separate solid biomass compared to liquid biomass, and the cross-contamination is a big concern for liquid bulk handling. For instance, it is possible to separate wood pellets into two stockpiles yet still store them in the same shed, while it is impossible to put two different batches of liquid biomass in the same silo or tank. The need for separation will affect the land size and possibly the operation processes of the terminal.

- Temporary decoupling

Since the test of cargo composition is one of the possible ways to make sure the product is the same between export and import ports, the test facilities should be available to perform such a test. This is no major different than the existing liquid terminal.

- Full decoupling

Whether this type of certification system is suitable for sustainable biomass trade is highly uncertain due to its shortcoming, namely that the physical products are not really sustainable. However, this system brings the least impacts to the terminal in terms of operation processes, equipment, the layout of the terminal, and land use. To conclude, although currently there is no concrete and specific sustainability certification for international biomass trade. However, many studies indicate that there is a need for

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such certification, and three certification systems can be used: Chain of custody (Track-and trace), Temporary decoupling, (Track-and Full decoupling. From the proposed three possible systems, the Chain of custody system will impact the terminal design most. In Chapter 3, the influences to the design of a terminal brought by the Chain of custody system will be furthered discussed and quantified.

2.6 Estimated demand of the European Union in 2020

Due to the significance of renewable energy, countries around the world have set up policies in their energy sector in order to achieve desired objectives. For example, the EU Commission set three objectives: competitiveness, sustainability, and security of supply in the Green Paper in 2006 [8]. The breakdown of the present gross inland consumption of fuel is shown in Figure 2.8. Biomass currently represents only 5% of the fuel consumption.

Oil 37% Coal/coke 18% Gas 24% Biomass 5% Nuclear 14% Hydro 1% Other 1%

Figure 2.8:Gross inland consumption in 2006 within the EU (EU-27) [43].

In addition to the Green Paper, the White Paper "Energy for the future" has set the target of increasing renewable energy share from 6% in 1997 to 12% in 2010 [60]. As part of the Strategic European Energy Review, the Renewable Energy Road Map [7] sets up the most up-to-date new targets in different sectors for the year 2020 in the EU. The proposed new targets are presented in Table 2.5.

The future energy demand for the European Union in 2020 has been estimated by Ragwitz et al. [61] using two scenarios and two methods for forecasting. The two different

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Table 2.5:Proposed renewable energy targets in the EU for year 2020 [7].

Sector Target Remark

Renewable Energy Source

20% in gross inland consumption by

2020

Electricity 34%

Biofuel 10-14% 14% = 43 Mtoe

Heating and Cooling > 18%

scenarios are as follows. In both scenarios, the effects of economies of scale and technology learning are taken into account, which have a higher impact in the policy scenario.

- Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. This scenario is based on current policies with existing restrictions and barriers. If the future policies have been decided although not yet implemented, they will still be considered.

- Policy scenario. It is based on the currently available best practice strategies of individual EU member states. Strategies that have proven to be most effective in the past for implementing a maximum share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) have been assumed for all countries. In addition, the scenario also assumes that currently existing barriers will be overcome, and that the planning horizon for policies is stable.

There are two forecasting methods in [61]: Green-X model and econometric analyses. Both methods are used to forecast the Renewable Energy Sources (RES) penetration in the year 2020. The latter method has higher transparency, uses correlations between policy implementations observed in the past and corresponding shares of RES, and is set as benchmark for the results from Green-X model. The Green-X model allows more adjustments in boundary conditions defined in the scenarios. Table 2.6 gives the estimated results in demand and corresponding biomass share, based on these two scenarios. Table 2.6 shows that in the Policy scenario the demand will be lower compared to the BAU scenario. This is that the Policy scenario assumes higher output due to overcoming existing barriers by development of new technologies. When Table 2.5 and Table 2.6 are compared, a difference in share is found. The reason for this is because Table 2.5 presents the targets of the total renewable share for each energy sectors, while Table 2.6 predicts the future biomass shares within each energy sector.

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Table 2.6:Estimation of EU demand in different sectors in 2020, with projected share of biomass,

based on BAU and Policy scenarios. [61].

Sector Demand in 2020 Biomass share (%)

BAU Policy BAU Policy

Electricity (TWh)

4009 3583 3.52 9.43

Heat (Mtoe) 488 488 10.86 15.98

Biofuel (Mtoe) 351 323 5.5 12.4

2.6.1 Required material amount to meet the EU demand in 2020

Calculations for the demand quantity of biomass based on BAU and Policy scenarios had been performed. To convert the scenarios to the amount of required materials, the following was done:

1. For each sector the estimated energy demand from Table 2.6 was converted to Exa Joule. The conversion rates are: 1 Million Tons of Oil Equivalent (Mtoe) = 41.868×10−3_{EJ, 1 Tera Watt-Hour (TWh) = 3.6×10}−3_EJ.

2. With corresponding biomass share, the demand of biomass can be obtained. 3. From Capros et al. [9], with projected trends of energy consumption in road

transport for 2020, the ratio between gasoline and diesel is 35/65. The same ratio is used here for the ethanol/biodiesel split.

4. To calculate the possible required amount to meet the targets, reference materials are selected. Wood pellet is selected for electricity and heating and cooling sectors. Special attention is put on liquid biofuel. Since liquid biofuel includes ethanol and biodiesel, two reference materials are chosen to reflect this: ethanol and Fischer-Tropsch Diesel (FT-Diesel).

5. From the Phyllis database [62], the average lower heating value (LHV) was used as energy content for wood pellets. In addition, figures from literature [51, 63] are used for ethanol and Fischer-Tropsch Diesel.

6. In the case of biofuel, end products are presented. They can be used directly. For electricity purpose, however, the efficiency of the power plant has to be taken into account: future efficiency is expected as 50% [64](current efficiency is between 38-45% [57]). For heating and cooling, the efficiency of the boiler will affect the amount of biomass needed. It is rather complex to generalize the efficiency of

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the boiler. Many factors affect the efficiency, such as fuel type, condition of the fuel, boiler type, control system, maintenance status [65]. According to Council of Industrial Boiler Owners [65] and Omori [66], the efficiency of new boiler can be around 60-90%, depending on the boiler types, load efficiency and conditions. Here the efficiency for heating and cooling sector is assumed as 80% for the new boiler. 7. Take the figures of "biomass demand" (step 2), divided by energy content (step 5),

and divided again by efficiency (step 6). The unit conversion rate is: 1EJ = 1×109 Giga Joule (GJ). The results are presented in the unit of million tons.

8. To see the total required mount, the figures from "Quantity required" (step 7) row are summed up.

Table 2.7 and Table 2.8 present the results for BAU and Policy scenario respectively.

Table 2.7:Estimation of material amount required to meet targets in 2020, for BAU scenario. Based

on [9, 51, 61–66]:

Step Electricity Biofuel Heating

and Cooling Total 1 Renewable Target (%) 34 10-14 > 18 Estimated Demand (BAU) 4009 TWh 351 Mtoe 488 Mtoe Estimated Demand (EJ) 14.43 14.70 20.43 2 Corresponding biomass share (%) 3.52 5.50 10.86

Biomass demand (EJ) 0.51 0.81 2.22

3 0.28

(Ethanol) 0.53 (Biodiesel)

4 Referent material Wood pellet Ethanol FT Diesel Wood

pellet 5 Average energy

content of the referent materials (GJ/ton) 18 26 44 18 6 Efficiency (%) 50 100 100 80 7 Quantity required (million tons) 56 11 12 154 233

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Table 2.8: Estimation of material amount required to meet targets in 2020, for Policy scenario.

Based on [9, 51, 61–66]:

Step Electricity Biofuel Heating

and Cooling Total 1 Renewable Target (%) 34 10-14 > 18 Estimated Demand (Policy) 3583 TWh 323 Mtoe 488 Mtoe Estimated Demand (EJ) 12.90 13.52 20.43 2 Corresponding biomass share (%) 9.43 12.40 15.98

Biomass demand (EJ) 1.22 1.68 3.26

3 0.58

(Ethanol) 1.10 (Biodiesel)

4 Referent material Wood pellet Ethanol FT Diesel Wood

pellet 5 Average energy

content of the referent materials (GJ/ton) 18 26 44 18 6 Efficiency (%) 50 100 100 80 7 Quantity required (million tons) 135 22 25 227 409

Although the total demand under Policy scenario is less than BAU scenario, due to a higher biomass share, the required material quantities will be higher in Policy scenario. The total required biomass amount for both scenarios is between 233 and 409 million tons. These figures will be further used in Chapter 3 to estimate the throughput of a large-scale biomass bulk terminal.

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2.7 Conclusions

The following questions are listed in Chapter 1 as part of the sub-questions: • What are biomass materials and products?

• How do the international biomass market and its supply chain look like?

• What are the future expectations of biomass materials and products and the international biomass trade?

In this chapter, various studies were analyzed to answer these three sub-questions. In addition, the potential impacts (future sustainability certification systems) based on expectations of the international biomass trade in the long term is also discussed. Calculations were performed to estimate the quantity of material required to fulfill EU directives in the year 2020. Following conclusions can be drawn:

- Biomass materials and products come in with a wide range of variety. They can be used in several sectors, including energy and transportation.

- In the long term future, the production potential of lignocellulosic biomass is very large. Energy crops will contribute the majority of the production potential. - One of the significant barriers to determine the existing international biomass

trade is the availability of statistics. Due to lack of transparency and because no official figures are available, the exact volume of trade flows cannot be referred to. Estimation from Section 2.6 indicates that between 233 and 409 million tons per annum are needed within the EU by the year 2020. This support large-scale import of biomass into the European Union via shipping, and there should be adequate infrastructure within the port areas to accommodate these material flows.

- Studies on the supply chain of biomass have been done, both for country specific situations and global scale. Results indicate that the most preferable chain is long distance transport via shipping, with refined solid biomass and liquid biomass. Although country specific studies did exam the biomass supply chain in the perspective of sea ports, no studies have been done specifically for a dedicated biomass terminal.

- Currently there is no concrete and specific sustainability certification for interna-tional biomass trade. However, many studies indicate that there is a need for such certification, and three certification systems can be used: Chain of custody (Track-and trace), Temporary decoupling, (Track-and Full decoupling. From the proposed three possible systems, the Chain of custody system will impact the terminal design most.

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- With the EU directive targets for the future as motivations, together with the projection of the EU demand in 2020, it shows that biomass share will grow higher compared to current market share. Calculations suggest that significant amount of biomass materials and products need to be imported.

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Design considerations and

assumptions

∗

Chapter 2 discussed the characteristics of both solid and liquid biomass materials and products. This chapter concerns the design of bulk terminals. How are existing dry and liquid bulk terminals designed? What are the factors that will influence the design of a bulk terminal? How to determine the scale of a bulk terminal? To answer these questions, this chapter addresses firstly the available terminal design methods in the literature, and gives an outline of vessel classifications and the corresponding dimensions. Next, an overview of the equipment that is currently available or in use for commonly handled bulk materials (e.g. coal, crude oil) is given to have a general understanding. The environmental concerns and other general influential factors for terminal design are discussed, and the specific consideration (e.g. material properties, sustainability certification systems) for the design of a large-scale biomass bulk terminal are identified. Based on the biomass information and the estimated European demand presented in Chapter 2, a list of design requirements and the potential capacity (annual throughput) of the terminal are discussed. Finally, on the basis of biomass categories given in Chapter 2, the potential cargos that the terminal might receive are selected.

3.1 Literature research on terminal design

Nowadays merchandise (e.g. consumer goods) and minerals (e.g. coal) are mostly produced and excavated in countries situated far away from the main consuming markets. The international seaborne trade continues to grow, despite the fact that global economic downturn and sharp decline in world merchandise trade in the last quarter of 2008 [68].

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32 Design considerations and assumptions

Under this kind of long distance supply chain, terminals in seaports are an important logistic link that provides functions such as temporary storage and handling to distribute cargos to/from hinterland [69]. Usually, a terminal may physically have following activities [70]:

- Unloading - Loading

- Warehousing/storage - Order consolidation

- Allocation of materials to orders

Furthermore, terminals can also be categorized based on the cargo unit they serve [70]: - Container terminal (container units)

- Timber terminal (handling timber products)

- Ro/ro terminal (handling various cargo units which can be put on rolling units like roll-trailers and/or semitrailers)

- General cargo terminal (handle general cargo units, e.g. palletized, in bags, in pallet boxes etc.)

- Bulk terminal (handle bulk products, dry bulk and/or liquid bulk. Is often specialized to certain commodities)

Since the 1980s, containers trades between intercontinental maritime transport have increased rapidly, from 76 million TEU (twenty feet equivalent unit) in 1988 to 525 million TEU in 2008 (Total port container handling) [71]. Due to the importance of containers in international trades, abundant studies are available in literature for topics related to container terminals: design and terminal operation related subjects [69, 72–74], optimization of terminal operation or simulation model [75–78], berth allocation problems [79, 80], and so on.

In 2008 the total volume of dry bulk cargos was at 5.4 billion tons, accounted for around 66 percent of the total volume of cargos transported by sea; meanwhile seaborne trade for oil reached 2.7 billion tons in the same year [68]. Despite the significant trade volumes, the information available in literature for bulk terminal design is quite limited compared with container terminals. In 1985, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a report to discuss the development of bulk terminals, including the physical characteristics, the management, and the operations of the bulk terminals

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[81]. In the same report, equipment deployed on bulk terminals with special cargo requirements were discussed, and it pointed out that dedicated terminals are common in the industrial/energy sector which is in line with the rationale of a large-scale biomass bulk terminal. However, [81] did not give a clear guild lines towards bulk terminal design approach.

UNCTAD published another handbook for port planners in 1985: "Port development. A handbook for planners in developing countries" [82], which is widely referred to by port planners around the world [83]. Within this handbook, besides knowledge in civil engineering aspects, information regarding to handling and storage equipment types and characteristics of a major bulk terminal is given. In addition, concerns for environment, the planning tasks (e.g. storage and handling capacity), vessel sizes, operational characteristics of major bulk commodities terminals (e.g. coal, iron ore, crude oil, vegetable oils, liquefied natural gas) are also discussed.

The handbook also showed that the similarity a bulk terminal and a container terminal share is the stochastic arrival time and pattern of ocean going vessels; yet the design and planning philosophy between container terminals and bulk terminals are quite different, given the fact that containers are uniform units with discontinuous operation while the designs of bulk terminals vary considerably and mostly with continuous operations [82]. One interesting conclusion from the handbook is that from the viewpoint of port interests, one high-capacity dry bulk terminal is more preferable to more terminals with moderate yearly capacity [82]. This adds further support to the idea of a large-scale biomass bulk terminal.

More recently several papers regarding to dry bulk terminal design are available in various aspects. They cover the topics such as general overview and analysis of existing bulk terminals [84], a modern design approach of dry bulk terminals with the application of discrete event simulation as a tool to assist the design [28, 29], and the logistic control of modern dry bulk terminals [85].

To conclude, terminals in port areas are essential links in international trades for consumer goods and minerals. Depends on the cargo unit, the terminals can be further categorized into e.g. container terminals, general cargo terminals, dry and liquid bulk terminals. There are many studies available in literature regarding to the design and operation of container terminals. However, even though there are some guidelines from UNCTAD and recent researches, information for bulk terminals is much less. Till now, there are no clear design steps available in literature for the design of a bulk terminal.