P R O C E E D I N G S OF T H E 12TH INTERNATiONAL C O N F E R E N C E ON
P1993-4
Volume 2
O F F S MORE
A R C T I C
IVI
E N
HANICS AND
I N E E R I N G
Delft University of Teclinology \
Ship Hydromechanics laboratory
HHMn
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Mekelweg 2 26282 CD Delft "
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VOLUME II
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 12TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON
OMA
O F F S H O R E M E C H A N I C S AND A R C T I C E N G I N E E R I N G
V O L U M E N
SAFETY AND RELIABILITY
SPONSORED BY
The American Society of IVlechanical Engineers, USA TWI (formerly the Welding Institute), UK Institution of Mechanical Engineers, UK The Canadian Society for Mechanical Engineering, Canada The Norwegian Society of Chartered Engineers,
Norway Dansl< Ingeniorforening, Denmark American Concrete Institute, USA Energy Rubber Group, A.C.S., USA American Society of Civil Engineers, USA Conseil de Liaison des Assoc. de Recherche sur les Ouvrages en Mer, France Chinese Society of Ocean Engineers, China Deutsches Komittee fur Meeresforschung und Meerestechnil<, e.V. Germany Institution of Engineers of Ireland, Ireland Korean Institute of Metals, Korea Royal Flemish Engineers Association, Belgium National Association of Corrosion Engineers, USA Office of Science and Technology, Australia The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers, Japan The Society of Naval Architects of Japan, Japan Portuguese Institute of Naval Architecture & Marine Engineering, Portugal European Safety and Reliability Association The Petroleum Society of CIM, Canada Canadian Petroleum Association, Canada Registro Italiano, Italy Institute of Materials, UK
TOPICS PRESENTED
Risk Analysis
Fire and Pollution Safety
Structural Reliability
Fatigue Reliability
Probabilistic Modelling of the Wave
Environment
Probabilistic Response Modelling
Uncertainties in Geotechnical Properties
Reliability of Offshore Structures
PRESENTED AT
THE 12TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON
OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING Glasgow, Scotland
June 20-24, 1993
ORGANIZED BY
The Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering Division, ASME
TWI (formerly the Welding Institute), UK
EDITED BY
C. GUEDES SOARES
TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF LISBON M. J. BAKER
UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN J. L7\BEYR1E
IFREMER S. LACASSE
NORWEGIAN GEOTECHNICAL INSTITUTE A. PITTALUGA
REGISTRO ITALIANO NAVALE
T H E A M E R I C A N United Engineering Center
S O C I E T Y O F M E C H A N I C A L E N G I N E E R S • • 345 East 47th Street • • New York, N.Y. 10017
Statement from By-Laws: The Society shall not be responsible for statements or opinions advanced in papers . . . or printed in its publications (7.1.3)
Authorization to photocopy material for internal or personal use under circumstances not falling within the fair use provisions of the Copyright Act is granted by ASME to libraries and other users registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) Transactional Reporting Service provided that the base fee of S0.30 per page is paid directly to the CCC, 27 Congress Street, Salem, MA 01970. Requests for special permission or bulk reproduction should be addressed to the ASME Technical Publishing Department.
ISBN No. 0-7918-0784-3
Library of Congress Catalog Number 82-70515
Copyright © 1993 by
THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERS All Rights Reserved
FOREWORD
This is the fourth time that the Safety and Reliability Symposium is being held as part of the OMAE Conference. Over the years, it has been steadily growing in size and range of interest. In the first symposium 36 papers were presented, 45 in the second, 60 in the third, and now 65 papers are included in these proceedings. It seems that it is now set on a stable course.
This symposium includes the traditional sessions on Probabilistic Modelling of the Environment, Probabilistic Response Modelling, Fatigue Reliability, and sessions on the Reliability of Offshore Structures and on Risk Analysis.
The papers included in this volume have been reviewed by at least two specialists and some by three. The quality of the resulting papers, which are mainly the responsibility of the authors, has been enhanced by the comments of the anonymous reviewers, w h o m we w o u l d like to thank for their efforts.
Many of the contributions to the technical program result f r o m the active role of the members of the International Organizing Committee in organizing the technical sessions. Their effort has also been important in processing the papers and in the contact with the reviewers.
We hope that the present program will be of interest to OMAE participants and that these pro-ceedings will be a useful reference for the workers in this field.
C. Guedes Soares
Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal M. J. Baker
University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom J. Labeyrie
IFREMER, France S. Lacasse
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Norway A. Pittaluga
SAFETY AIMD RELIABILITY ORGANIZING COMMITTEE
C . Guedes Soares, Technical University of Lisbon M. J . Baker, University of Aberdeen
P. Besse, Bureau Veritas
C. A. Cornell, Stanford University D. Faulkner, University of Glasgow
J . T. Gierlinski, WS Atkins Engineering Science S . Haver, Statoil
G. Jones, Lloyd Register
I, J . Jordaan, Memorial University of Newfoundland J . Labeyrie, IFREMER
S . Lacasse, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute J . S. Lee, University of Ulsan
B. Leira, SINTEF
R. E. Melchers, University of Newcastle O. Madsen, Det Norske Veritas
F. Moses, University of Pittsburgh
Y. Murotsu, University of Osaka Prefecture
A. IMaess, Norwegian Institute of Technology
G. Ostergaard, Germanischer Lloyd
A. Pittaluga, Registro Italinao Navale
W. Shao, China Classification Society T. J . Zitman, Delft Hydraulics
LIST OF REVIEWERS
J. A m d h a l R. Gundt M. Olagnon
R. G. Bea IVI. Grigoriu C. Ostergaard
F. Casciati M. R. Haddara G. Parmentier
R, Cazzulo K. Hasselmann H. Petershagen
D. Diamantidis L. Holthuijsen A. Pittaluga
0. Ditievsen J. J. Jensen R. Rackwitz
W. Dover G. Jones J . B. Roberts
M. Dogliani H. Karadeniz W. Rosenthal
P. J . Dowling G. J . Komen J. P. Signoret
K. Engesevik H. Krogstad R. Skjong
M. Faber J . Labeyrie P. D. Spanos
D. Faulkner L. R. Lando B. Stahl
A. Francescutto J. S. Lee M. Torhaug
P. Frieze B. Leira G, Jiao
F. Galeazzi H. 0 . Madsen J. E. Vinnem
A. Garlick H. Matthies G. White
Y. Goda M. Morris P. H. Wirshing
0. Gudmestad A. Naess
P. H. Wirshing
PROCEEDINGS
O F T H E 12THINTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
ONOFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING
1993 OMAE
-VOLUME I - OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY
Ocean Waves and Energy Hydrodynamic Forces
Computational Hydrodynamics Fluid-Structure Interaction Motions of Floating Structures Ship Motion
Risers, Moorings, and Cables Design of Offshore Structures
Structural and Geotechnical Mechanics
VOLUME II - S A F E T Y AND RELIABILITY
Risl< Analysis
Fire and Pollution Safety Structural Reliability Fatigue Reliability
Probabilistic Modelling of the Wave Environment
Probabilistic Response Modelling Uncertainties in Geotechnical Properties Reliability of Offshore Structures
V O L U M E III - MATERIALS ENGINEERING, PART A
Strength Mismatching of Welds HAZ and Weld Metal Properties Unden^/ater and Hyperbaric Welding
High Strength Steel for Offshore Applications Welding Control
Applications of GRP Offshore Perfornnance of Connposite Materials High Pressure High Temperature Sealing
Systems
V O L U M E III - MATERIALS ENGINEERING, PART B
Fatigue Crack Growth Fatigue Behavior Tubular Joints
European Coal and Steel Community — Research on Fracture and Fatigue Fracture Control
Fracture Toughness and Assessment of Welds Stress Intensity Factors
Inspection, Repair, and Life Extension of Offshore Structures
V O L U M E IV - ARCTIC/POLAR T E C H N O L O G Y
Mechanical Properties of Ice Ice Engineering
Ice-Structure Interaction Arctic Operations Permafrost Engineering
V O L U M E V - PIPELINE T E C H N O L O G Y
Offshore Pipeline Technology Geotechnical Issues
Permafrost
Pipeline Corrosion and Protection Pipeline Integrity
Materials and Welding Pipeline Simulation Pipeline A u t o m a t i o n
CONTENTS
RISK ANALYSIS
OREDA: A Software Tool and Database for Offshore Systems Reliability
Stein B. Jensen, Stian Ruud, and Eril< Ostby 1
Application and Defensibility of Offshore ORA: Case Study Discussion
Jan Erilc Vinnem 7
Reliability Approach to Establish IMR Criteria for Underwater Tunnels
Renato Facciolli 409
FIRE AND POLLUTION SAFETY
Reliability and Risk Assessments for LPG Facilities: A View of the State of the Art
Robert E. Melchers 13
Human and Organizational Error in Operations of Marine Systems: Occidental Piper Alpha
William H. Moore and Robert G. Bea ..: 21
Optimisation of Passive Fire Protection on Platform Topsides
C. P. Rogers, R. L. Bruce, and S. Medonos 31
STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY
y Reliability of Time-Dependent Structural Systems
Hon Y. Chan and Robert E. Melchers 39
Evaluation of Reliability in Case of Complex Mechanical Behaviour
Jean-Pierre Muzeau, Maurice Lemaire, Pierre Besse, and
/ Jean-Marc Locci 47
/ Stochastic Finite Elements: An Interface Approach
Teodoro Abdo Sarras, Rainer M. Diekmann, Hermann G. Matthies, and
Collin S. Moore 57
Non-Gaussian Noise Effects on Reliability of Multistable Systems
Emil Simiu and Mircea Grigoriu 65
Structural System Reliability Analysis for Frames With Imperfect Members
Wenjiao Shao and Jingsong Zou 73
FATIGUE RELIABILITY
Discussion o f t h e Fatigue Crack Model Used as Decision Basis for Probabilistic Inspection Planning
Gudfinur Sigurdsson and Rune Torhaug 79
Assessment o f t h e Significance of LBZs in Steels Using a Probabilistic Model
Henryk G. Pisarski and Stephen Slatcher 89
Fatigue Under Variable Amplitude Loading: A New Approach
Paul W. Winter and Don A. Macinnes 99
PROBABILISTIC MODELLING OF THE W A V E ENVIRONMENT
A New Model f o r Long-Term Stochastic Prediction of Cumulative Quantities
G. A. Athanassoulis and T. H. Soukissian 417 Stochastic Sensitiveness to Combined Extreme Environmental Loads in Structural Reliability
J. Labeyrie and M. Olagnon 107
The Effect of Wind Errors o n Ocean Wave Hindcasts
Leo H, Holthuijsen, Nico Booij, and Luciana Bertotti 117
Variability of Ocean Wave Hindcasts Due to Wind Models
J. C. Teixeira, M. P. Abreu, and C. Guedes Soares 125
Study o f t h e Accuracy and Uncertainties of Directional Wave Navigation Radar Measurements Confronted With Pitch-Roll Buoy Data
José C. Nieto and Marta Alfonso 135
Second-Order Numerical Reconstruction of Laboratory Generated Random Waves
C. T. Stansberg 143
Directional Wave Simulation in the Hellenic Seas Using Digital Filters
C. Solomonidis and M. Spiridakis 153
Statistics of Wave Crest Lengths Based on Directional Wave Simulations
Yoshimi Goda 161
A Two-Dimensional Weibull Distribution and Its Application to Rolling
Dag Myrhaug, Emil Aall Dahle, and Havard Rue 169
A T w o Peak Wave Spectrum Model
Knut Torsethaugen 175
Effects of Parametric Uncertainties of Ocean Environment on the Reliability of Offshore Structures
Kenji Kawano and K. Venkataramana 181
Uncertainty of Loads on Offshore Structures in Reliability-Based Design
T. Arima, N. Yamamoto, K. Inoue, M. Ozaki, and M. Morikawa 187
PROBABILISTIC R E S P O N S E MODELLING
Uncertainty Modelling in Offshore Structural Analysis Under Wave-Current and Water-Structure Interactions
H. Karadeniz and A. P. Nicholas Haritos 195
Statistics of Combined Linear and Quadratic Springing Response of a TLP in Random Waves
Arvid Naess 201
Uncertainties of Load Characteristics and Fatigue Damage of Ship Structures
Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen, Espen H. Cramer, and
Robert Loseth 211
Uncertainty in the Estimation of Fluid Loading Due t o the Effects of Marine Growth
Julian Wolfram, Iberahin Jusoh, and David Sell 219
Peak Response Statistics of Vertical Cylinders in Two-Dimensional Irregular Waves
A. P. Nicholas Haritos 229
Stochastic Linearization as a Tool f o r Fatigue Damage Estimation
/ Arvid Naess and Steven R. Winterstein 237
/ Sensitivity o f t h e Dynamic Response of a Jack-Up Rig to Support Modelling and Morison Force Modelling Assumptions
r L Manuel and C. A. Cornell ' 243
/ Estimating Extreme Response of Jackup Structures From Limited Time-Domain Simulation
Steven R. Winterstein and Rune Torhaug • 251
yPrediction of Extreme Dynamic Response of a Jack-Up Platform Using Nonlinear Time Domain Simulations
Daniel Karunakaran, Nils Spidsoe, and Bernt J. Leira 259
Fatigue in Side Shell Longitudinals Due to External Wave Pressure
Espen H. Cramer, Robert Loseth, and Elzbieta Bitner-Gregersen 267
UNCERTAINTIES IN GEOTECHNICAL PROPERTIES
Probabilistic Evaluation of Cyclic Capacity for TLP Foundation
Joseph M. Keaveny, Farrokh Nadim, and Reza Rashedi 273
•/ Effects of Nonlinear Soil Hysteretic Behaviour on the Dynamic Response of a Jacl<-Up Platform
Daniel Karunakaran, Nils Spidsoe, Eiliv Skomedal, and
Morten Baerheim 279
RELIABILITY OF OFFSHORE S T R U C T U R E S
Review of the Applications of Structural Reliability Technoiogies in Offshore Structural Safety
Jacob C. P. Kam, Malcolm Birklnshaw, and John V. Sharp 289
Reliability Based Design of Submersibles: A n Investigation on the General Instability of Externally Pressurised Cylindrical Vessels
Alberto C. Morandi, Purnendu K. Das, and Douglas Faulkner 297
A System for Collapse and Reliability Analysis of Ship Structures Using a Spatial Plate Element Model
Yoshisada Murotsu, Hiroo Okada, Shigeyuki Hibi, Osamu Niho, and
Hajime Kaminaga 305
Buckling Analysis of Plated Structures Using System Reliability Concepts
M. A. Bonello and M. K. Chryssanthopoulos 313
Investigation of Response Surface for Reliability Analysis of Structural Systems
Joo-Sung Lee, Mikhail B. Krakovski, Anatoli N. Yakubovich 323
A First Order Second M o m e n t Approach to Systems Fatigue Reliability of Offshore Structures
Yuren Hu and Bozhen Chen 327
A Reliability Based Methodology of Requalification for Existing Jacket Platforms
Aboubakr Maroini, Michel Birades, Jean Goyet, and Marc Prevosto 335
Reliability Based Requalification Criteria for Offshore Platforms
Robert G. Bea 351
Review of Criteria for Inspection and Maintenance of North Sea Structures
^ John V. Sharp, Jacob C. P. Kam, and Malcolm Birkinshaw 363
X j C o s t Effective Life-Cycle Design of Semi-Submersibles Based on Probabilistic Fatigue Calculations
, M. L. Kaminski, H. Boonstra, P. Salza, and L. Wittenberg 369
/ Negative Strain-Hardening to Evaluate Reliability in Offshore Engineering
Alaa Mohamed Mohamed, Maurice Lemaire, Jean-Pierre Muzeau, and
Michel Birades 379
Some Practical Aspects of Structural and Reliability Analysis Coupling
Jean-Marc Locci, Pierre Besse, and Jean-Pierre Muzeau 389
^ Integrity Assessement of Fixed Offshore Structures: A Case Study Using RASOS Software
Jacek T. Gierlinski, Robert J. Sears, and Navil K. Shetty 399
A u t h o r Index 425
