Chemical & Metallurgical Engineering, Vol. 40, No. 1

C H E M I C A L

6 M E T A L L U R G I C A L

ENGINEERI NG

v o l u m e 4 0 E s t a b l i s h e d 1902 n u m b e r 1

M C G R A W -H IL L PUBLISHING C O M P A N Y , INC.

S. D. KIRKPATRICK, Editor

J A N U A R Y , 1 9 3 3

W H A T 'S A H E A D FOR C H E M IC A L ENG INEERING?

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p r e se n t p ro sp ects f o r th e g ro u p o f in d u s­

tr ie s th a t d ep en d u p o n ch em ica l e n g in e e r ­ in g te c h n o lo g y . It r e c o g n iz e s th e lim ita tio n s o f p ro p h ecy , esp e c ia lly a t a tim e w h e n b asic read ­ ju s tm e n ts a re s till b e in g m a d e in o u r p o litica l and ec o n o m ic stru ctu re. B u t it p r o p o se s to lo o k cr itic a lly an d sq u a rely at th e fu tu r e , first fro m th e im m ed ia te v ie w p o in ts o f th o s e sev era l field s in w h ic h ch em ica l in d u stry n o w finds its m a jo r m a rk et and seco n d , fr o m th e lo n g er ra n g e v ie w o f ch em ica l e n g in e e r in g o p p o rtu n ­ itie s in n e w e r and m ore ra p id ly c h a n g in g p h a ses o f in d u stria l a c tiv itie s. T h is ap p roach in itse lf o u tlin e s th e tw o d ir e c tio n s in w h ic h w e can lo o k f o r fu r th e r p r o g r e ss. In o th er w o r d s, fu ll p r o sp e r ity m u st in e v ita b ly dep en d u p on g e n e r a l re c o v e r y o f th e b asic in d u s tr ie s o f the c o u n tr y , b ut in th e m ea n tim e ch em ical e n g i­

n eers can lite r a lly l i f t th e m se lv e s b y th e ir o w n b o o t-str a p s i f th e y can p ro d u ce n e w p ro d u cts an d p r o c e ss e s fo r field s th a t h a v e n o t y e t fe lt th e stim u la tin g in flu en ce o f ch em ica l tech -

F

n o lo g y .

p e c ts a lso lo o k u n u su a lly g o o d . O u r c o m m en ­ tator p red icts, w ith a fa ir d e g r e e o f co n fid en ce, th at th is y e a r w ill sh o w a n in crea se o f 7 to 10 p er cen t o v e r 1 9 3 2 . L e t u s h o p e h e is r ig h t, fo r th a t m e a n s m o re b u sin e ss • in d y es, so a p , o ils, sta rch es, a lk a lis and th e m an y o th er te x t ile ch em ica ls.

A

ch em ica l b u sin e ss th at d ep en d s on th e p u r c h a sin g p o w e r o f th e u ltim a te c o n su m er. T h e r e ­ fo re, w e are all c o n cern ed w ith th e p lig h t o f th e fa r m e r fo r u n le s s h is p r ic e s a re resto red to a rea so n a b le le v e l, th o s e fo r

in d u stria l p ro d u cts are lik ely to fa ll e v e n lo w er than th ey are to d a y . C h em ical in d u s tr y h as d em o n stra ted th e in v e s tm e n t v a lu e in c o m ­ m ercial fe r tiliz e r s, e v en in tim e s lik e th ese.

B u t it h a sn ’t y e t fo u n d a w a y to p a y fo r th em o u t o f th e fa r m e r ’s d w in d lin g p ro fits.

I

s ix th o f ca p a city , fin d s im m ed ia te and d is­

tu r b in g e ffe c t o n c o k e p ro d u ctio n w ith its am m on ia, g a s, tar a n d b en zo l b y p ro d u cts, in su lp h u r ic and m u ria tic a c id s fo r p ick lin g , zin c fo r g a lv a n iz in g , in m a g n e s ite an d c h ro m e fo r r e fr a c to r ie s. I t is n o t w id e ly k n o w n , b u t e v e n b e fo r e 19 2 9 th ere w a s a d eclin e in steel p ro -

L O O K IN G FO R W A R D IN T O 1933 W ITH

PROCESS INDUSTRIES

An Editorial Interpretation and Summary of Major Economic Trends as Revealed by Data Presented Here and Elsewhere in This Issue

1919 1930

P

e n e r g y . T h e rea so n fo r th is d iv e r g e n c e is first o f all a h ig h ly d iv ersified m ark et f o r th eir p ro d u cts and an in h e r e n t fle x ib ility in m a k eu p th a t p erm its th em to adapt th e m se lv e s q u ick ly to c h a n g in g co n d itio n s. F u rth erm o re, a s in d u str ie s g o , m a n y o f th e p r o c e ss g r o u p are rela tiv ely n e w an d still in th e g r o w in g sta g e o f th eir d ev elo p m en t.

A s w e g o fa rth er in to th e d e p r e ss io n — or co m e n earer

JFMAHJJ ASONDJFMAMJJASO"OJ FMAMJJ A S OH DJ FMAMJJ ASONO

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to its en d — th ere is a la g ­ g in g te n d e n c y o n th e part o f so m e o f th e so -ca lled

“ h e a v ie r in d u s tr ie s” th at s e r v e iro n a n d ste e l, c o n ­ str u c tio n a n d a g ricu ltu re w h ile th e “ lig h te r in d u s­

t r ie s ” th a t p ro d u ce c o n ­ s u m e r g o o d s co n tin u e to r e sist th e g e n e r a l d o w n w a r d tren d . In 1933, th e r e fo r e , w e m u st e x p e c t a m ix e d tren d b ut th e g r o u p a s a w h o le sh o u ld co n tin u e to o p era te w e ll a b o v e th e a v e r a g e fo r

“A ll I n d u s tr y .” M o s t p r ic e s a r e so m e w h a t lo w e r b u t e c o n o m ie s th a t h a v e b een e ffe c te d th r o u g h p la n t im ­ p r o v e m e n ts and m o d e r n iz a tio n a ss u r e th e m a in ten a n ce o f fa ir e a r n in g s e x c e p t in a f e w so r e ly tr ie d in d u stries.

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both raw m a teria l a n d co n su m e r g o o d s , fin d s its fir st- q u arter s h ip p in g p r o sp e c ts so m e 7 p e r cen t b elo w th e sa m e p erio d o f 1 9 3 2 . S h ip p e r s o f h e a v y ch em ica ls in g e n e r a l, o n th e o th er h an d , a n ticip a te a 7 p er cen t im p r o v e m e n t on th is b a sis. H y d r o c h lo r ic acid is still th e step c h ild it h a s so o f t e n b een in th e p a st. C o m b u s­

tio n acid ch iefly , so m e fr o m o rg a n ic sy n th e sis , a little fro m sa lt as a b y p ro d u ct se e m to b e th e so u rces.

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1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1921 ^{1930 1931 *}

F

January, 1933 — Chemical & M etallurgical Engineering 3

o f a c tiv itie s in te x t ile m ills m ark ed th e tu r n in g p o in t fo r th e d y e in d u str y w h ic h c lo se d th e y e a r at a b etter rate o f p r o d u c tio n th an a t a n y tim e sin c e 1929. D e p r e s ­ sio n d em a n d fo r ch ea p er m erch a n d ise, n o t o n ly in te x t ile s bu t in le a th e r , pap er a n d rubber g o o d s , se e m s to h a v e c a lle d fo r a n in c r e a s in g u se o f c h e m ic a ls a s fillers an d e x te n d e r s , w e ig h tin g a g e n ts , etc. S y n th e tic s , su ch a s p la stic s, u se d in c o n su m e r g o o d s , w e r e a lso fa v o r a b ly in flu en ced b y th is d em a n d fo r lo w e r p riced m erch a n d ise.

N e w s o lv e n ts an d r e fr ig e r a n ts ca m e in to la r g e u s e in 1933. R e se a r c h an d d e v e lo p m e n t b e in g m o re a c tiv e in th is field th an a n y o th er, a ss u r e s c o n tin u o u s g r o w th sin ce n ew an d n o n -c o m p e titiv e u se s w ill a lw a y s su p p lem en t th e e x is t in g h ig h ly d iv e r s ifie d m a rk et fo r sy n th e tic o r g a n ic ch em ica ls.

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c u ltu r e w o u ld su b s titu te la r g e q u a n titie s o f a m m o n ia fo r n itr a te n itr o g e n e v en w ith th e ab n o rm a l p r ic e rela tio n s w h ich p rev a iled . Y e t th a t’s ju s t w h a t w e d id in 1 9 3 2 . S lig h t s t iff e n in g o f p rices w ith n o in d ic a tio n o f e x c e s s iv e s to c k s o f a m m o n iu m su lp h a te w o u ld se e m to le n d e n c o u r ­ a g e m e n t t o th e v ie w th a t p ro fit p r o sp e c ts a re a t le a st b e tte r th an a y e a r a g o . O n th e o th er h a n d , w ith C osach in liq u id a tio n and c o m p le te ca p ita l r e o r g a n iz a tio n c e r ­ ta in , it w o u ld be h a za rd o u s to p red ict a n y th in g m o re than a y e a r o f u n c e r ta in tie s w ith th e d e p r e ss io n a s lik e ly to

fa v o r th e n a tu ra l a s th e sy n th e tic p ro d u cer o f n itr a te s.

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cal p r o d u c tio n fo r th e fir st q u a rter o f th e y e a r is e s t i­

m ated at an in c r e a s e o f 7 .5 p er cen t o v e r th e c o r r e sp o n d ­ in g p erio d o f la s t y e a r . N e w s o lv e n t-c o n s u m in g o u tle ts w e r e o p en ed up la st y e a r an d n e w s o lv e n ts a tta in e d c o m ­ m ercia l im p o rta n ce. P r o g r e s s in th a t d ir e c tio n m ay a ss u m e a tren d w h ic h w ill b e im p o r ta n t in sh a p in g fu tu r e p ro d u ctio n .

1,000 ja 900 t 800

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A n d sin c e c o n su m p tio n o f a b o u t 8 7 0 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 bbl.

e x c e e d e d p r o d u c tio n b y so m e 8 0 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 b bl., th e in d u s­

try im p ro v ed its sta tis tic a l p o s itio n la r g e ly a s a r e su lt o f c ru d e oil p r o d u c tio n cu rta ilm e n t. B u t lo w e r p rices fo r c ru d e o il an d a flu sh p r o d u c tio n a t th e y e a r ’s e n d , in d i­

ca ted th a t th e p ro b lem is still p r e s s in g . T h e refin in g in d u str y o p e r a tin g a t 55 to 7 0 p er c e n t o f to ta l ca p a city b ut o v e r 9 5 per cen t o f th e ca p a city o f its c r a c k in g u n its w e r e u sed . I t h a s la r g e ly m a in ta in e d p e r so n n e l, b e in g a lea d er in th e sh a r e -th e -w o r k p ro g ra m an d it h a s u se d th e p a st f e w m o n th s to m o d e r n iz e m a n u fa c tu r in g fa c ilitie s in ord er to p ro d u ce b etter q u a lity o f p ro d u cts. D istr ib u tio n is still a tr o u b le so m e p rob lem . B o o tle g g in g o f ch ea p er g r a d e s o f g a s o lin e is d e m a n d in g c o r r e c tiv e a tte n tio n . P r o s p e c ts fo r 1933 are fo r a s lig h t d e c lin e in s a le s d u e in th e ea r lie r m o n th s to th e g e n e r a l e x p e c ta tio n o f c o ld e r w e a th e r and fo r th e y e a r a s a w h o le to th e in d ic a te d fa ll in r e g is tr a tio n an d u se o f m o to r v e h ic le s.

140

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I

T h is th e in d u s tr y a tte m p te d f o r th e first tim e d u r in g 1 9 3 2 w h en a s u m m e r sh u t-d o w n fo llo w e d a fa ll in p rice w h ic h slid p r o d u c e r s to n e w d e p th s o f u n p r o fita b le n e ss.

W h e n te x t ile d em a n d s u d d e n ly a w o k e in th e late su m m er, p la n ts reo p en ed to b etter p r ic e s a n d a lm o st ca p a city a c tiv ity w h ic h c o n tin u e d to th e en d o f th e y e a r . W it h th e a d v e n t o f 19 3 3 th e in d u s tr y is h o p e fu l, a t le a s t fo r th e first s i x m o n th s w h ic h is a s lo n g a p e r io d a s p r o g n o s- tic a to r s ca re to th in k a b ou t. D u r in g th is tim e , it is a n tic ip a te d th a t th e p r e se n t rate, or s o m e th in g n ea r it, can be m a in ta in ed .

T e c h n ic a lly , tr e n d s a re a t p r e se n t h a zy . D u r in g th e

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past y e a r a ceta te an d cu p ra silk in crea sed , n itro ab ou t held its o w n w h ile v is c o se b ore th e bru n t o f th e 18 p er c e n t d ec r e a se fr o m reco rd 1931. N e w ra y o n s are n o t n ea r, a lth o u g h c r e a se -p r o o fin g o f fa b rics is a fa c t and p ro b a b ly an im p o rta n t o n e. A little in crea se f o r v is c o se , and la r g e r p er c e n ta g e in crea ses fo r a ceta te and cupra se e m to be in th e sta rs fo r 1933.

3/300

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C

C ity g a s re q u ir e m e n ts h a v e d eclin ed le s s than a lm o st a n y o th er d iv isio n o f in d u stria l a c tiv ity . H o u s e h o ld and c o m m ercia l u se h a s d eclin ed le s s th a n 5 p er c e n t, an d in d u str ia l u s e o n ly a little m o re th an th is in th e ca se o f m a n u fa c tu r e d g a s, b u t a s m u ch a s 15 p er c e n t in th e ca se o f n a tu ra l g a s fr o m c ity su p p lies. D em a n d fo r c ity g a s in 1933 is p r o s p e c tiv e ly so m e w h a t g r e a te r th an in th e p a st year, p rob ab ly n ea rly eq u a lin g th e p eak d em an d s fo r all tim e.

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tisin g , b o x b o a rd on c o m m o d ity sh ip m en ts, and w ra p p in g paper on retail sa le s o f g en era l m erch a n d ise. N e w sp r in t, b ook and w r itin g p ap er h a v e d ev elo p ed a s lig h tly b etter tren d , bu t th e sp ecia lty g o o d s a re p r o v in g to be th e “ b est s e lle r s .” M u ch m o re c o n sid e r a tio n w ill be g iv e n th is o u tlet in th e fu tu re. N o t m u ch o p p o rtu n ity fo r in crea sed sa les in th e in d u stry a s a w h o le is lik e ly to o ccu r d u rin g th e ea rly m o n th s o f 1933. T h e in d u stry is o p era tin g a t ab ou t 6 0 per cen t o f ca p a city . T h e p u lp d iv isio n o f th e in d u stry is in sta llin g m u ch n ew eq u ip m en t, p articu larly in th e sto ck p rep aration d ep a rtm en t, in an e ffo r t to o p era te m ore efficien tly. T h is in v e s tm e n t w ill be reflected in fu tu r e p rofits.

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C

B

T h e p o sitio n o f d o m e s tic m a rk ets d o e s n o t in d ica te a n y m a teria l ch a n g e in c o n su m in g d em an d fr o m th a t o f 1932.

T h e e x p o r t o u tlo o k p o in ts to so m e cu rta ilm e n t. T h e in d u s tr y h a s b een fa v o r e d w ith a w e a lth o f u n u su a lly lo w -p r ic e d raw m a teria ls bu t th e fin ish ed p r o d u c t a lso h a s b een su b je c te d to p rice r e v is io n s an d th e n e w y ear o p e n e d w ith an a n n o u n cem en t o f a fu r th e r red u ctio n in p rice fo r so m e o f th e la rg er to n n a g e ite m s. L o w e r sa les p r ic e s w ill b e la r g e ly o ffs e t b y r ed u ctio n in c o sts.

P ro d je tto n by 24 ic r e p o r tin g to

. T . te n t te a I c o m p a n ie s

EXPLOS IVES

1 1

1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932

E

January, 1933 ^— Chemical & M etallurgical Engineering 5

c h a ra cterizes th e se a c tiv itie s. O f th e s e field s c o a l m in ­ in g is n o r m a lly th e la r g e s t c o n su m e r a n n u a lly req u irin g a b o u t 4 0 p er cen t o f th e o u tp u t o f th e e x p lo s iv e s in d u s ­ try. M e ta l m in in g fo llo w s n e x t w ith 2 0 p er c e n t and q u a r r y in g an d n o n -m e ta llic m in in g a c c o u n ts fo r 15 p er cen t. R a ilw a y an d g e n e r a l c o n str u c tio n d u r in g th e p a st s e v e n y e a r s h a s a v e r a g e d a n o th e r 15 p er c e n t a lth o u g h in 1 9 3 2 a lm o st a th ir d o f th e o u tp u t w a s so u sed . D u r in g th e p a st y e a r th e e x p lo s iv e s in d u s tr y as a w h o le o p era ted a t a p p r o x im a te ly 5 0 p er cen t o f th e a v e r a g e fo r th e p ast ten y e a r s. It h it a lo w sp o t in th e m id d le o f 1932, g a in e d s te a d ily in th e la st q u a rter o f th e y e a r , e n te r in g 19 3 3 w ith e v e r y in d ica tio n o f m a in ta in in g th e u su a l se a s o n a l in c r e a se d u r in g th e ea rly m o n th s. W h a t h a p ­ p e n s a ft e r th a t d ep e n d s u p on in d u stry in g en era l.

1921 1922 1923 1924 » 2 5 1926 1927 1928 1929 1950 I9JI

F

m e n ts fo r th e first q u a rter o f 1933 a t 1 0 p e r cen t le s s th an la st y ea r. S in c e a b o u t 8 5 p er cen t o f co n su m e r req u irem en ts a r e n o rm a lly so ld in th e la te w in te r an d ea r ly sp r in g , it is e v id e n t th at th e p r e se n t lo w p u r c h a sin g p o w e r o f th e fa rm er th r o ttle s im m ed ia te r e c o v e r y in th is in d u str y . I f th e d o m e s tic a llo tm e n t p lan or o th e r fo r m o f fa r m r e lie f sh o u ld be a d o p ted th e fe r t iliz e r in d u s tr y w o u ld n o t b e b en efited u n til th e fo llo w in g y e a r , i f at all. I n d e p r e ssio n , n itr o g e n u su a lly su ffe r s first b u t lo w p r ic e s h a v e h elp ed it to r e sist th is tren d . L a r g e -sc a le d e v e lo p m e n t o f n e w d o m e s tic p o ta sh so u r c e s fo r e c a s t an in te n se ly co m p e titiv e situ a tio n . A lr e a d y , p h o sp h a te p ro b lem s m ad e a cu te b y ab n o rm a l im p o r ts o f R u ssia n , C an ad ian , M o ro cca n a n d J a p a n e se p h o sp h a te are r e c e iv ­ in g official s t u d y ; b u t n o “ r e lie f ” to th e d o m e s tic in d u str y can o ffs e t th e tro u b le w h ic h c o m e fr o m p in c h in g th e p o ck etb o o k o f th e fa rm er.

1928 1929 1930 1932

D

in g s h a v e been d ela y ed . A s a r esu lt, th e q u a n tity o f p a in tin g th a t m u s t u ltim a te ly be d o n e is g r o w in g ra p id ly a n d , th e r e fo r e , w h e n b u sin e ss h a s d e fin ite ly r e v iv e d , it is c o n c e iv a b le th a t th e p a in t in d u s tr y w ill b e o n e o f th e

b u siest. T ra ffic m e n in th e E a s t e stim a te th a t 8 .6 p er c e n t fe w e r ca rs w ill b e req u ired to h a n d le th e sh ip m e n ts o f p ain t, v a rn ish an d la cq u er p ro d u c ts in th e first q u a r­

te r o f 1933 th a n w e r e u sed in th e c o r r e sp o n d in g q u a rter o f la s t y e a r . H o w e v e r , th e g e n e r a l o u tlo o k fo r th e y e a r is fair. T h e r e h a s a lrea d y b een a n in c r e a se in p r o d u c tio n a c tiv ity an d retail tra d e h a s sh o w n s o m e im p r o v e m e n t.

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T h e m ech a n ica l g o o d s d iv isio n o f th e in d u s tr y w ill p ro b a b ly c o n tin u e to g iv e a fa ir ly g o o d a c c o u n t o f it s e lf . W h ile th e te n n is s h o e p r o d u c tio n h a s fe lt th e e ffe c ts o f fo r e ig n c o m p e titio n , th e b o o t an d sh o e d iv is io n a s a w h o le sh o u ld c o n tin u e th e s u c c e s s it h a s h ad in th e y e a r ju s t en d ed . T h e o u ts ta n d in g fe a tu r e in th e rubber in d u str y is th e p r o sp e c ts fo r in c r e a se d p r ic e s f o r raw m a teria l, ru bber a n d c o tto n d u r in g th e n e x t f e w m o n th s.

1 HO

90 'S 10

n

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2 30

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R e fr a c to r ie s , d e p e n d in g b oth o n n e w c o n str u c tio n and o n m a in te n a n c e , a re in th e d o ld ru m s. T h e m a in ten a n ce o u tlo o k , fo r tu n a te ly , is im p r o v in g w ith each p a s s in g d ay.

O n e b rig h t sp o t in h e a v y cer a m ic s is in ch em ica l s t o n e ­ w a r e w h ich , o f co u r se , m o v e s w ith th e ch em ica l in d u str y . H e r e th e situ a tio n h a s r e c e n tly im p ro v ed a n d th e m a k ers a n tic ip a te a m u ch b etter y e a r th a n 1 9 3 2 .

6 Chemical & M etallurgical E n gin eerin g^— V o l.4 0 ,N o .T

A n authority appraises the immediate prospects for improvement in one of chemical in d u s try ’s best customers

W H IT H E R TEXTILES?

By D O U G LA S G. W O O LF

Editor, T extile W orld N civ York City

T

mate upon an expectation of approxi­

m ately 7^ per cent increase iri textile m ill a ctivity over 1932. M oreover, I w ould feel that I w as taking the con­

servative side— and w ould be prepared for the pleasant surprise of, say, a 10 per cent increase.

R eaders w ho exp ect a forecast to be accom panied by a diagram m atic e x ­ planation w ill be disappointed. T h is is not that kind of prediction. T rue, it is not m erely a h u n ch ; but, on the other hand, neither is it the result o f a straight statistical calculation. It is rather the product of a “picture-puzzle” method—

being based upon a study of the indus­

try’s perform ance over a period of years, a know ledge of current trends in te x ­ tile m arkets, and an estim ate of the course o f general business during 1933.

N aturally, the latter factor is the x in the equation.

A fter arriving at a definite estim ate, w e checked it w ith other observers in the industry and found som e vindication o f our unscientific procedure in the fact that their opinions coincided closely w ith ours, but m ostly tended tow ard the higher percentage increase. A n addi­

tional check, o f interest to those w ho are statistically minded, is the fact that, according to one theory, the tex tile in­

dustry show s a tw o-year cycle and a

“peak” is in the cards for 1933. F o l­

lo w in g this thought further, textile

business is better during the first half of a “peak” year than during the last half. T his, too, checks w ith our own opinion for this year.

T h e B ack grou n d

In order to get a picture of w hat this 1933 estim ate m eans in relation to re­

cent years, it is necessary to indulge in a few statistics. First, let’s see what has happened during the depression.

T aking 1929 textile activity, based on fiber consum ption, as 100, the de­

pression years— including our estim ate for 1933— rate as fo llo w s :

1929 ... 100 1931 ... 80

1930 ... 77 1 9 3 2 * ... 72

1 9 3 3 + ... 77

E xten d in g the com parison to include a longer period, the eight-year average 1924-31 is taken as 100 and m ay be re­ garded as a “norm al” year for the period under review . On this basis, recent years— including our estim ate for 1933— w ould rate: 8-yr. av...100

1924 ... 88 1929 ... 113

1925 ... 101 1930 ... 87

1926 ... 104 1931 ... 91

1927 ... 115 1932* ... 81

1928 ... 104 1933+ ... 87 In other words, if our estim ate of a 7^-per cent increase for 1933 proves to be correct, the year w ill be about on a level w ith 1930, and only 13 per cent under w hat w e have been rash enough to term a “norm al” year. If the higher

• B a s e d o n in c o m p le te d a t a . t E s i i m a t c d .

estim ate of a 10-per cent increase proves accurate, 1933 w ill be on nearly as high a level as 1931— and only 11 per cent below a “norm al” year. E ither one w ould not be so bad for any indus­

try under present conditions.

U nfortunately, how ever, the textile im provem ent of recent months has been publicized in new spaper headlines so blatantly that these figures m ay appear anti-clim actic. T h e public has gained the im pression that the textile industry is breaking all activity records. H ere is w hat actually happened last y e a r : In A u gu st, tex tile s experienced probably the m ost abrupt and m ost decisive transition in the history of the industry.

A lm ost com plete stagnation w as re­

placed by a demand w hich, for a w hile at least, necessitated practically 100- per cent operation. A s an indication of the change it m ight be m entioned that raw m aterial consum ption in October w as approxim ately 75 per cent greater than in July. T h e average m onthly consum ption of raw m aterial during the last five m onths, based on incom plete data but w ith the possible m argin of error a narrow one, w as 28 per cent greater than the average during the first seven m onths. T h is im provem ent did not enable the industry to break any records for the year but it transform ed w hat threatened to be a thoroughly disastrous year into a period of activity only 11 per cent under the previous year and only 19 per cent under the average for the preceding eigh t years.

T h e causes of this turn-about are im ­ portant in so far as they affect the out­

look for 1933. L ike m ost industrial

January, 1 9 3 3 — Chemical & M etallurgical Engineering 7

movem ents, this one w as not the result of any one factor. T h e com bination of circum stances producing it included, among- others, a critical need for re­

placem ent buying, a rise in raw material prices, and at least a psychological im ­ provem ent in the outlook in business in general. .

O f these, the first is probably the m ost im portant one affecting the im ­ m ediate future. N o m atter how bad business is, people still have to wear clothes under present standards of m odesty. T hen, too, the depreciation lim it in apparel cannot be disregarded as it often is, unfortunately, in m achin­

ery, for exam ple. T he old sayin g that a depression lasts as lon g as the seat of a m an’s trousers has an elem ent of truth in it. T hat is w hy, of course, the so- called consum er-goods industries lead the w a y . out of periods of business prostration. T h at is w hat has been hap­

pening during the last s ix months— and w hat m ay be expected to continue to happen during the months im m ediately ahead.

D espite the active buying of textiles from fir.st hands in the sum mer and fall, and despite the fact that this demand partly anticipated, rather than responded to, a call from ultim ate consum ers, there is a good amount of textile buying still to be done. T he absence of e x ­ cessive stocks, by and large, in any of the channels of trade m eans that the in ­ dustry w ill be sensitive to this continued demand.

H e n o r E g g ?

T h e part w hich advances in com ­ m odity prices played in the im prove­

m ent is, in a sense, the old story of the hen and the egg. It is im possible to say ju st to w hat exten t increased de­

mand strengthened raw material quota­

tions, and to w hat exten t firmer prices induced covering of requirem ents. N o r can any blanket statem ent be made for all textiles. T h e advance in raw cot­

ton in A ugust, for exam ple, w as un­

doubtedly due to the Governm ent esti­

mate of a much sm aller crop th is year;

the rayon price advance in Septem ber, on the other hand, w as the result of a tem porary sold-up condition. H ow ever, it is reasonably safe to say that present textile raw m aterial prices are not in­

flated and that com parative firmness, w ith its resultant buoyant effect upon the m arkets, m ay be anticipated for the n ext several months.

C om ing to the third factor, the out­

look in general business, w e have no desire to compete w ith authorities in that field. F or our ow n purposes, how ­ ever, w e have proceeded on the assum p­

tion that the tendency toward im prove­

ment m ay be expected to continue— and that 1933, taking the year as a whole.

should develop a higher rate of general a ctivity than 1932.

S in ce the tex tile industry is, in a sense, a group of industries, and since chem ical m anufacturers are interested in the prospects in the individual branches, it is in order to comm ent briefly upon the outlook for the products of each of the m ajor fibers.

O u tlo o k in Each B ran ch C otton — T h e m ost im portant factor in cotton goods is the job w hich the in­

dustry is doing in balancing production w ith demand. T h is is best dem onstrated by the reduction in stocks of goods car­

ried by the m ills. A t the end of October, stocks on hand amounted to only 167,- 000,000 yd., as again st 256,000,000 yd.

on the sam e date last year, and an aver­

age of 341,000,000 yd. carried on Oct.

31 during the four preceding years.

A ctual sh ipm en ts of goods from mills during the first ten months of 1932 were approxim ately 5£ per cent greater than the pro d u ctio n for the sam e period.

T h is elem ent of control is the best form of insurance against market degenera­

tion. T h e leadership of the Cotton- T e x tile Institute has been a potent factor in this direction.

A c tiv ity in the cotton industry, based on fiber consum ption, w as ap p roxi­

m ately 8 per cent less in 1932 than in 1931, and 20 per cent less than the eight- year average, 1924-1931.

T h e raw material outlook has been im proved by the prospect of a sharp de­

crease in the crop th is year as against last, but the existen ce of a large carry­

over m eans that the industry is faced w ith a greater supply than ever before in its history. T h is fact is in itself the m ost im portant argum ent against any sharp advance in cotton prices, irre­

spective of the trend of demand. Such an advance, w hether due to speculative m anipulation or to artificial respiration supplied by som e such governm ental ac­

tion as the m uch-discussed H arrim an plan, or “dom estic allotm ent act,”

w ould retard rather than advance the rate of recovery in the cotton industry.

On the consum ption side, the in­

g en u ity w hich has been injected into the stylin g o f cotton goods during recent years is a decidedly favorable factor, so far as use for apparel purposes is con­

cerned. T h e trend of consum ption of cotton products for industrial purposes depends of course upon the trend in gen ­ eral business and, as indicated previ­

ously, w e anticipate an increase there.

W o o l — A ctiv ity in the w oolen and w orsted industry suffered a m ore acute contraction in 1932 than any other branch o f tex tile manufacture. Based on fiber consum ption, last year’s opera­

tions w ere approxim ately 25 per cent less than the previous year and 27 per

cent under the eigh t-year average, 1924- 1931. H ow ever, this w as due largely to a period o f unprecedented stagnation in the spring. Sharp recovery w as noted in the latter part of the year and the outlook for the next few m onths, at least, is encouraging.

In this branch, there is no such o ver­

supply of raw m aterial as that w hich . faces cotton m ills. In fact, there is much talk of an im m inent w ool scarcity. A lthough this is not to be taken too literally, there is every reason to expect a firm raw m aterial m arket as a basis for n ext year’s operations in the w ool industry.

U nfortunately, this d ivision has been handicapped by a lack of cooperation am ong its members. T h e failure of the W ool Institute left the industry largely w ithout leadership. A m ovem ent started recently, under the auspices of the N ational A ssociation o f W o o l M an­

ufacturers and other organizations, offers som e hope o f a remedy for this situation.

S ilk — Statistically, the silk branch of the tex tile industry did remarkably w ell last year. R ate of a ctivity, based on fiber consum ption, w as only 6 per cent low er than the previous year, and 3 per cent h ig h er than the eigh t-year aver­

age, 1924-1931. U nfortunately, collapse of the raw -silk market in the spring, due to conditions in the Far E ast, m ade it a difficult year, as a w hole,, for m anu­

facturers. T h e subsequent recovery in raw material prices helped greatly, but the outlook in Japan is still too uncer-.

tain to perm it any predictions on this phase. H ow ever, disregard in g th e un­

certainty in raw silk prices, the prospect is for continued activity.

R a y o n C o m es B ack

R ayon — S yn th etic fibers staged one of their com e-back acts, for w hich they are now fam ous. T h eir market had alm ost com pletely dried up in the spring

— and radical curtailm ent, including com plete plant shut-dow ns for a month or more, w as put into effect. In the early sum mer the picture changed alm ost over-night, and during the last five m onths o f the year 100 per cent operation w as w arranted; producers w ere in the pleasant position o f refus­

in g orders.

In Septem ber, the w riter estim ated a dom estic rayon production o f 115,000,- 000 lb. in 1932, approxim ately 20 per

8 Chemical & M etallurgical E n gin eerin g^— V o l.4 0 ,N o .l

cent less than 1931. Since this estim ate w as made after the im provem ent set in, and took its effects into account, there seem s no reason to make any radical change in it at this time. Consumption may run som ew hat higher, as stocks w ere liquidated during the rush for yarn in the sum mer and fall. In fact, a con­

sum ption of 120,000,000 lb., or even a little higher, is not beyond the realm of possibility. W e believe that the de­

velopm ent of synthetic fibers is still in its infancy and that it is im possible to set any lim it to its . future expansion.

Incidentally, the increasing use of acetate yarn is w orth noting— and w atching.

On the price side, restricted demand in the first half of the year, in conjunc­

tion w ith the collapse in raw silk, led to tw o price cuts in June and July, bringing ISO denier viscose from 75 to 65, and then to 55 cents. In late A ugust, the price w as advanced to 60 cents. On the w hole, 1932 w as not a particularly profitable year for rayon producers.

T h e imnjediate outlook in this field, so far as consum ption is concerned, is favorable.

B road er M o v e m e n ts at W o r k T hus far, w e have been considering largely the im m ediate factors affecting, the outlook in textiles. N o one inter­

ested in the future of these m arkets, how ever, can afford to ignore certain fundamental forces now at w ork, be­

cause those forces prom ise to have more effect than any tem porary shift in the supply-demand relationship, or any transient fluctuation in tex tile activity.

On the econom ic side, there has been developing— haltingly at tim es, and im ­ perfectly at all tim es— a m ovem ent toward coordinated solution of the many problem s facing the industry. T h is m ovem ent has of course been a de­

fen sive one— an attempt to counteract the inherent w eakness of a h igh ly de­

centralized industry. T h e cooperative defense has taken the form of associa- tional effort. T h is is best exem plified in the w ork of the C otton -T extile Institute.

Form ed in 1926, this organization has played an outstanding part in prevent­

in g com plete collapse during the depres­

sion years.

Its a ctivities have included the com ­ pilation and dissem ination — in co l­

laboration w ith the A ssociation of Cot­

ton T e x tile M erchants— of statistics on

production, sales, shipm ents and stocks of the various types of cotton goods ; the encouragem ent of individual and volun­

tary attempts to bring those several factors into balance ; the developm ent of sound and uniform principles of cost determ ination ; the prom otion of new and extended uses for cotton products ; and the achievem ent of m ore satis­

factory relationships am ong the various divisions of the industry.

A s previously indicated, the m ost im portant sin gle accom plishm ent to date has been a sane production-demand balance. In achieving this end, the industry has taken tw o constructive m oves w hich have had social ram ifica­

tions and one of w hich, particularly, has gained for the industry public prestige and confidence. T hese w ere, first, the lim itation o f m axim um hours per w eek to 55 on the day shift and 50 at night;

and second, the elim ination o f nigh t em ploym ent of w om en and m inors in cotton m ills..

A doption of the latter policy m ay be regarded as the m ost significant single step ever taken by the industry. It is true that tw o im portant groups, the print cloth and narrow sheetings industries, have broken aw ay from the night-w ork policy, and w e are aw are of the incongruity of the m axim um -hour scales adopted w hen other industries are d iscussing a 40- hour w eek and organized labor g oes on record as favoring a 30-hour w eek.

H ow ever, everything is relative and w hat improvement has been made in social policies is a m ajor step in ad­

vance for the textile industry.

N or has this spirit been restricted to the cotton industry. A s stated previ­

ously, the w ool d ivision has made one abortive attempt toward cooperation—

and is certain to try again. T h e a sso­

ciations in the silk, knitting, and finish­

in g branches have extended their activ­

ities to include constructive plans for the correction o f fundam ental w eaknesses.

B etter M erch a n d isin g A rriv es B y no means the least im portant trend in textiles has been the developm ent of a m erchandising consciousness. H ere, too, the m ovem ent grew out of neces­

sity but the result has been none the less encouraging. T h e move has taken tw o form s: cooperative and individual.

In the former category, there are the studies in m arketing of cotton, w ool, silk and rayon goods now being con­

ducted under the auspices of the T e x ­ tile Foundation. In the latter, there is a new m erchandising aggressiveness ap­

parent in the activities of an increas­

in gly large number of textile mills.

F inally, on the econom ic side, there are such encouraging sign s as the strengthening of the large selling or­

ganizations, and the gradual elim ina­

tion of a v ery considerable quantity of productive equipment.

T echnically, the industry lias also made progress. D u rin g the last few years, the im provem ents made in equip­

m ent and processes have been greater, in the aggregate, than in probably any other sim ilar period. U nfavorable business conditions have prevented w idespread utilization of these im prove­

m ents, but they represent an important potential influence for the future.

It is possible m erely to m ention a few of th ese: the developm ent of long-draft sp in n in g; of single-process p ick in g; of range finishing; of full-fashioned hosiery production in one op era tio n ; of scientific pre-shrinking and crease- proofing of fa b r ic s; of continuous rayon m anufacture; and o f the use of plastic compounds in the production o f textile m aterials. In connection w ith the latter item, its significance is indicated by the production of a pile fabric w ithout the u se of a loom !

T h ose w ho sell to the tex tile industry and w ho w ish to keep in touch w ith factors influencing its future w ill do w ell to study each of these technical trends.

T h e In d u stry ’s P rice P o lic y L est readers m ay im agine that, as a protagonist for the industry, w e are attem pting to g iv e it too clean a bill of health, w e hasten to adm it that it is still far from a profitable field of en­

deavor. T h is is due partly to the de­

pressed conditions p revailing in busi­

ness generally, partly to the difficulty of adjusting an old industry to new condi­

tions, and partly to the lack of a sane price policy. T e x tile m anufacturers have indulged in more than their share of price-cutting tactics. E ven during the months o f satisfactory demand in the last half of 1932, the least sign o f abatem ent w ould lead to price-panic.

T h e fact that such abatem ent m ay have been seasonal, and easily predictable, counted for little. A d efeatist attitude still prevents the industry from capi­

talizin g on a relatively large call for its products.

S o lon g as it is not legally possible to restrain price-cutters, the only answ er is education. T h ere have been signs, re­

cently, of a more general realization of the futility of such tactics. U n til those sign s becom e unmistakable, w e are un­

able to make any such definite predic­

tion regarding tex tile profits as w e w ere bold enough to make concerning textile activity. Fortunately, w e sense a grow th of mental flexibility am ong te x ­ tile m anufacturers w hich encourages us to anticipate a decade of greater pros­

perity than characterized that through w hich they have ju st passed.

January, 1933 ^— Chemical & M etallurgical Engineering 9