DINGS OF THE
ER NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON
FSHORE MECHANICS
D
CTIC ENGINEERING
1991
-R I S T E N S E N
B991 TKHNISCHE UNIYERSITEIT
Laboratorium voor
PROCEEDINGS OF THE
Scheepshydromechanica
Archief
10TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON
Mekelweg 2, 2628 CD DeW
Tot.: 015 - 786873 - Fax: 015 • 781836
OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND
ARCTIC ENGINEERING
-
1991
-PRESENTED AT
THE 10TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE O N OFFSHORE MECHANICS A N D ARCTIC ENGINEERING
Stavanger, Norway June 2 3 - 2 8 , 1991
S P O N S O R E D BY
The American Society of Mechanical Engineers, USA The N o r w e g i a n Society of Chartered Engineers, Norway Dansk Ingeniorforening, Denmark American Concrete Institute, USA Energy Rubber Group, A C S . , USA American Society of Civil Engineers, USA Conseil d e Liaison des A s s o c . de Recherche sur les Ouvrages en Mer, France Chinese Society of O c e a n Engineers, China Deutsches Komittee fur Meeresforschung und Meerestechnik, e.V., Germany Institution of Mechanical Engineers, UK Institution of Engineers of Ireland, Ireland Korean Institute of Metals. Korea Royal Flemish Engineers Association, Belgium National Association of Corrosion Engineers, USA Office of Science a n d Technology, Australia The Welding Institute, UK The J a p a n Society of Mechanical Engineers, J a p a n The Society of Naval Architects of Japan, Japan European Safety a n d Reliability Association
VOLUME II
SAFETY AND RELIABILITY
Probabilistic Modeling of Wave Environment Probabilistic Load a n d Response Modeling Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics a n d Fatigue
Reliability
Structural Reliability Theory Reliability of Offshore Structures Reliability of Ship Structure
Reliability-Based Inspection and Maintenance Risk Analysis E D I T E D BY C A R L O S G U E D E S S C A R E S T E C H N I C A L U N I V E R S I T Y O F L I S B O N C A R S T E N O S T E R G A A R D G E R M A N I S H E R L L O Y D M I C H A E L J . B A K E R I M P E R I A L C O L L E G E O F S C I E N C E , T E C H N O L O G Y , A N D M E D I C I N E A L E S S A N D R O P I T T A L U G A R E G I S T R O I T A L I A N O N A V A L E M I C H E L H U T H E R B U R E A U V E R I T A S P A A L E T H O F T - C H R I S T E N S E N U N I V E R S I T Y O F A A L B O R G O R G A N I Z E D BY
The Offshore Mechanics a n d Arctic Engineering Division, ASME The Nonwegian Society of Chartered Engineers
T H E A M E R I C A N S O C I E T Y O F M E C H A N I C A L E N G I N E E R S United Engineering Center • • 345 East 47th Street • • New York, N.Y. 10017
Statement from By-Laws: The Society siiall not be responsible for statements or opinions advanced in papers . . . or printed in its publications (7.1.3)
ISBN No. 0-7918-0718-5 Library of Congress Catalog Number 82-70515
Copyright© 1991 by
THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERS All Rights Reserved
FOREWORD
R e c o g n i z i n g t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f s a f e t y a n d r e l i a b i l i t y c o n c e p t s a n d t e c h n i q u e s i n t h e d e s i g n a n d o p e r a t i o n o f o f f s h o r e s t r u c t u r e s a n d s y s t e m s , t h e O M A E C o n f e r e n c e O r g a n i z i n g C o m m i t t e e has d e c i d e d t o o r g a n i z e f o r t h e s e c o n d t i m e a s y m p o s i u m s p e c i f i c a l l y d e d i c a t e d t o t h i s i m p o r t a n t t o p i c . T h i s v o l u m e i n c l u d e s o v e r 4 5 p a p e r s t h a t h a v e b e e n r e v i e w e d b y r e c o g n i z e d s p e c i a l i s t s i n t h e f i e l d a n d r e v i s e d p r i o r t o a c c e p t a n c e f o r p u b l i c a t i o n in t h e p r o c e e d i n g s . T h i s n u m b e r o f p a p e r s r e p r e s e n t s a 2 5 % i n c r e a s e i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e n u m b e r o f p a p e r s p r e s e n t e d last y e a r , w h i c h is c o n -s i d e r e d a p o -s i t i v e -s i g n o f t h e a c c e p t a n c e t h i -s -s y m p o -s i u m i-s a c h i e v i n g i n t h e t e c h n i c a l c o m m u n i t y . A w i d e r a n g e o f p r o b l e m s are t r e a t e d in t h i s v o l u m e . A l t h o u g h t h e m a i n e m p h a s i s is p l a c e d o n a s p e c t s r e l a t e d t o t h e s t r u c t u r a l d e s i g n o f o f f s h o r e i n s t a l l a t i o n s , t h e r e are a l s o s e s s i o n s o n p r o b -a b i l i s t i c -a l l y b -a s e d i n s p e c t i o n s -a n d m -a i n t e n -a n c e , -a n d o n risk -a n -a l y s i s — b o t h -are v e r y i m p o r t -a n t t o p i c s f r o m an o p e r a t i o n a l p o i n t o f v i e w . In t h i s v o l u m e s e v e r a l p a p e r s d e a l w i t h t h e latest a d v a n c e s i n t h e t h e o r y o f s t r u c t u r a l r e l i a b i l i t y , w h i c h s e t s t h e s t a g e f o r t h e v a r i o u s t o p i c s n e c e s s a r y in d e s i g n . T h e y c o v e r t h e a s p e c t s o f p r o b a bilistic m o d e l l i n g o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t , ? i w e l l as of t h e l o a d s a n d r e s p o n s e s i n d u c e d o n t h e s t r u c -t u r e . F r o m -t h e p o i n -t of v i e w o f s -t r e n g -t h a s s e s s m e n -t , a s p e c -t s s u c h as p r o b a b i l i s -t i c f r a c -t u r e m e c h a n i c s , f a t i g u e r e l i a b i l i t y , a n d p r o b a b i l i s t i c f o r m u l a t i o n o f c o l l a p s e s t r e n g t h a r e a l s o e x p l o r e d . S y n t h e s i s p a p e r s a r e i n c l u d e d , w h i c h a p p l y all t h e c o n c e p t s of r e l i a b i l i t y a n a l y s i s t o s p e c i f i c s t r u c t u r e s , in p a r t i c u l a r s h i p a n d o f f s h o r e p l a t f o r m s . Finally, t h e i m p o r t a n t a n d g r o w i n g t o p i c o f r e l i a b i l i t y b a s e d i n s p e c t i o n s a n d m a i n t e n a n c e is a l s o i n c l u d e d . D i f f e r e n t s t u d i e s o f risk a n a l y s i s are p a r t of t h i s v o l u m e , c o v e r i n g t h e i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t o f f i r e s a f e t y , as w e l l as t h e e c o n o m i c risk a n a l y s i s a n d t h e r e q u a l i f i c a t i o n o f s t r u c t u r e s . T h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h risk a n a l y s i s a n d s a f e t y m a n a g e m e n t is d e a l t w i t h i n t h i s v o l u m e is still s m a l l e r t h a n w e w o u l d d e s i r e , b u t t h e r e is t h e h o p e t h a t i n f u t u r e s y m p o s i a t h e s e t o p i c s w i l l b e m o r e w i d e l y r e p r e s e n t e d . T h e e x i s t e n c e a n d t h e s u c c e s s o f t h i s s y m p o s i u m w o u l d n o t h a v e b e e n p o s s i b l e w i t h o u t t h e s u p p o r t o f M a m d o u h M . S a l a m a a n d o f S u b r a t a K. C h a k r a b a r t i , w h o a c c e p t e d t h e idea f r o m t h e start a n d g a v e t h e i r c o n t i n u e d s u p p o r t t o it. T h e r e v i e w e r s (listed i n t h i s v o l u m e ) p r o v i d e d a n i m p o r t a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o e n s u r e t h e t e c h n i c a l a c c u r a c y a n d t h e h i g h q u a l i t y o f t h e p u b l i s h e d p a p e r s . T h e d i l l i g e n t e f f o r t s of M r s . M a r g a r i d a R o d r i g u e s i n h a n d l i n g t h e c o m m u n i c a t i o n w i t h a u t h o r s a n d s e s s i o n s o r g a n i z e r s a n d in k e e p i n g t r a c k o f t h e p a p e r s a n d r e v i e w s a r e g r e a t l y a p p r e -c i a t e d . C. G u e d e s S o a r e s T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y o f L i s b o n , P o r t u g a l M . J . Baker I m p e r i a l C o l l e g e o f S c i e n c e T e c h n o l o g y a n d M e d i c i n e , U. K. M . H u t h e r B u r e a u V e r i t a s , France C. Ö s t e r g a a r d G e r m a n i s h e r L l o y d , G e r m a n y A . Pittaluga R e g i s t r o Italiano N a v a l , Italy P. T h o f t - C h r i s t e n s e n U n i v e r s i t y A a l b o r g , D e n m a r k iiiSAFETY AND RELIABILITY SYMPOSIUM COMMITTEE
Carlos Guedes-Soares, Chairman, Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal
Michael J . Baker, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, United Kingdom Michel Huther, Bureau Veritas, Pans, France
Carsten Östergaard, Germanischer Lloyd, Hamburg, Germany Alessandro Pittaluga, Registro Italiano Navale, Genova, Italy Paale Thoft-Christensen, University of Aalborg, Denmark
PARTIAL LIST OF REVIEWERS
C. Aage S. Haver A . S. Nowack A. Andersen L. D. Holthuijsen C. Östergaard M. J . Baker M. Huther R. Özkan B. Barnouin L. lovenitti A. Papanikolaou R. G. Bea G. R. Jeffreys J. R. Paulling P. Bjerager J . J . Jensen P. T. Pedersen W. Blendermann 1. J . Jordaan K. E. Petersen R. Bruce J . C. P. Kam A. Pittaluga F. Casciati A. Karadeniz R. Rackwitz J . Catchpole T. Kinoshita C. F. van Rijn R. Cazzulo F. Kirkemo J. B. Roberts
Y . N. Chen A . Der Kiureghian B. P. M. Sharpies J . F. Conlon P. Klinting T. E. Schellin D. Diamantidis J . Labeyne G. 1. Schueller S. F. Estefen H. 0 . Madsen J . P. Signoret D. Faulkner A. E. Mansour P. D. Spanos G. Ferro P. W. Marshall B. Stahl A. Francescutto Tor-Chr Mathiesen C. C. Tung D. M. Frangopol F. Moses S. Valagard J. T. Gierlinskl Y . M u r o t s u A. V r o u w e n v e l d e r M. Grigoriu A. Naess P. H. Wirsching C. Guedes Soares P. Bo Nielsen
P. H. Wirsching M. R. Haddara E. Nikolaidis
PROCEEDINGS
O F T H E 10THINTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
OIMOFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING
-
1991 OMAE
-VOLUME I - OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY, PART A Hydrodynamics - Special Topics
Hydrodynamic Forces Second-Order Effects
Vortex Shedding and Vibration Ocean Waves and Current Computational Methods
VOLUME i - OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY, PART B Case Histones - Offshore Structures
Offshore Structure Concepts Fluid Structure Interaction Risers, M o o n n g s , and Cables Structural Mechanics Geotechnical Engineering Motions of Floating Structures
VOLUME II - SAFETY A N D RELIABILITY Probabilistic Modeling of Wave Environment Probabilistic Load and Response Modeling
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics and Fatigue Reliability Structural Reliability Theory
Reliability of Offshore Structures Reliability of Ship Structure
Reliability-Based Inspection and Maintenance Risk Analysis
VOLUME III - MATERIALS ENGINEERING, PART A Residual Stress and Distortion in Welds
Weld Metal and HAZ Properties Underwater and Hyperbanc Welding Steel Development
Materials Application and Inspection Titanium for Offshore Applications
VOLUME III - MATERIALS ENGINEERING, PART B Thickness Effect
Fatigue Life Prediction Tubular Joints Fracture Control Composite Matenals Concrete Technology
VOLUME IV - ARCTIC/POLAR TECHNOLOGY Arctic Structures, Operations, and Analysis Applied Ice Mechanics
Properties, Mechanics, and Analysis of Frozen Soil Ice Environment/Statistics
Ice-Structure Interaction Ice Properties
Soil-Structure Interaction
VOLUME V - PIPELINE TECHNOLOGY
Pipeline Design/Hydrodynamic Forces/On-Bottom Behavior Pipeline Materials and Welding
Pipeline Safety/Reliability
Pipeline Installation/Operation/lnspection/Maintenance Pipeline Mechanics
CONTENTS
Occurrence of Extreme Waves With Respect to Significant Wave Height
Agnès Robin and Michel Olagnon 1
Spectral Modelling of Sea States With Multiple Wave Systems
C. Guedes Soares and M. C. Nolasco 13
Statistical and Physical Models of Nonlinear Random Waves
Steven R. Winterstein, Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen, and
KnutO.Ronold 23
Extrapolation of Design Waves in the Gulf of Guinea
6 . Lebas, J. Van Dyck, and D. Veneziano 33 Combination of W i n d , Wave and Current Loads in the Gulf of Mexico
V. K. Wen and hi. Banon 41 Foundation Safety of Gravity Based Systems During Severe Storms
Knut O. Ronold and Sverre Haver 49
/ A n Efficient Numerical Method for Calculating the Statistical Distribution of Combined First-Order and Wave-Drift Response
Arvid Naess and John M. Johnsen 59
v' On Extreme Values of the Slow Drift of a Moored Vessel: Effects of the Second Order Potential and Coupled Motions
Satoru Takase, Takeshi Kinoshita, and Tetsuya Matsui 71
Post-Accident Response of Offshore Structures
Nicholas Haritos ^ 79
Assessment of Fuzzy Uncertainties in Fatigue Load Modelling for Offshore Structures
Chen Guoming, Huang Dongsheng, and Fang Huacan 85
On the Probability of Large Amplitude Roiling and Capsizing as a Consequence of Bifurcations
Alberto Francescutto 91
Estimation of Ship Roll Parameters in Random Waves
J. B. Roberts, J. F. Dunne, and A. Debonos 97
Stochastic Crack Growth and Reliability Analysis
F. Casciati, P. Colombi, and L. Faravelli 107 Reliability of a Fatigue Crack Subject t o a Stationary Narrow Band Gaussian Load
Mircea Grigoriu and M. T. A. Sail 113
A M a x i m u m Utility Model for Structures Subject to Fatigue Crack Growth
Espen H. Cramer and Lars H. Hauge 119
Orthogonal Digital Simulation of Probabilistic Properties of Fatigue Life for Offshore Structures
Chen Guoming and Fang Huacan 127
The Recent Development in Reliability Fatigue and Fracture Mechanics Analysis of Offshore Installations
J.C. P. Kam 135
Second Order Methods in Time Variant Reliabilit/ Problems
P. Bryla, M. H. Faber, and R. Rackwitz I 4 3
A n Efficient Second-Order Reliability Method
Armen Der Kiureghian, Mario De Stefano, and Tomaso Trombetti 151
Redundancy Measures for Design and Evaluation of Structural Systems
Dan M. Frangopol, Minoru lizuka, and Keito Yoshida 157
Parallel System Approach for Vector Out-Crossings
Oistein Hagen and Lars Tvedt "ISB
Probabilistic Identification of Failure Modes for Nonlinear Structures
Jorgen Amdahl and Bernt J. Leira
Reliability of a Deepwater Gulf of Mexico FPS Spread Mooring
F. J. Bruen, R. B. Gordon, and Y. K. Vyas 179 Probabilistic Structural Analysis of Geothermal Drilling Batteries
L Bertini and E. Vitale 187
Site-Dependent Reliability of a Mobile Jack-Up Platform
fiernf J. Leira and Daniel Karunakaran 193 Fatigue System Reliability of TLP Tendons Including Inspection Updating
Maria Célia C. Ximenes and Alaa E. Mansour 203
Reliability Based Requalification Critena for Existing Jack Platforms
D. Diamantidis, G. Righetti, and F. Zuccarelli 213 Partial Safety Factors for Vertical Bending Loads on Containerships
C. Östergaard 221
Reliability Assessment Techniques Applied to the Design of Manne Structures
Yoshisada Murotsu, Hiroo Okada, Tsuyoshi Oishi, Osamu Niho,
Katsuyoshi Nishimura, and Hajime Kaminaga 229
Probabilistic Design of a Ship Type Floating Production Vessel
/. Lotsberg, O. Back-Gansmo, and J. /. Dalane 237
Fatigue Reliability Investigation for Manne Structures Using a Response Surface Method
G. Schall, M. Scharrer, C. Östergaard, and R. Rackwitz 247
Probabilistic Strength Modelling of Unstiffened Plates Under Axial Compression
M. A. Bonello, M. K. Chryssanthopoulos, and P. J. Dowling 255
Reliability of Unstiffened Plate Elements Under In-Plane Combined Loading
C. Guedes Soares and A. G. Silva 265
Reliability Analysis of Grillages by Using Stochastic Transfer Matrix Methods
Wenjiao Shao, Yunlong Jin, and Tieyun Chen 277
Modelling in Optimal Inspection and Repair
J. D. Sorensen, M. H. Faber, R. Rackwitz, and
P. Thoft-Christensen 281 Inspection Reliability for Crack Detection and Sizing
W. D. Dover and J. R. Rudlin • • • • • 289
A n Intelligent Input t o Inspection Planning on Offshore Platforms Taking Gross Human Errors Into
Account - „
Asbjorn Andersen and Eva Kragh • • • •;
Reliability C e n t r e d M a i n t e n a n c e : T h e A p p l i c a t i o n of the M S G - 3 M e t h o d in the I n d u s t n a l M a r k e t
Marten Brascamp
Ramino - A Knowledge Base System and a Co-ordinator of Numerical Models for Structural Reliability Assessment
V. H. Khong and A. C. Lucia
Novel Approach t o the Assessment of the Fire Resistance of Offshore Structures
Jacek T. Gierlinski, Chris L Middleton, Paul J. Schofield, and Michael J. Baker
Fire and Explosion Hazards and Technical Measures for Hazard Prevention and Mitigation m Offshore Installations
M. Stock and U. Berth
Economic Risk Analysis of Offshore Projects
Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen, Jon Lereim, Isabelle Monnier, and Rolf Skjong
Deterministic Versus Probabilistic Based Seismic Design Criteria-Adnatic Sea
D. Diamantidis, D. Vardanega, F Zuccarelli. and E. Valento •
359 A u t h o r Index
