A General Activity-based Methodology for Simulating Multimodal Transportation Networks during Emergencies

A general activity-based methodology for

simulating multimodal transportation

networks during emergencies

Jeroen P.T. van der Gun, Adam J. Pel, Bart van Arem

3rd International Conference on Evacuation Modeling and Management

Introduction

Urban emergencies

Observed characteristics (one or more):

• Presence of evacuation traffic

• Substantial delays for everyday traffic

• Emergency services trying to reach the disaster site Urban transportation system is easily overloaded

• Less supply and/or more demand

Main model requirements

• Be dynamic

• Predict initial conditions

• Include intra-household interactions

• Be multimodal

• Include not directly affected travellers

Travel choice modelling

Activity-based choice model for household

Normal

• Follow activity-travel pattern from equilibrium situation • Initial state of all households

Adaptation

• Adapt to experienced or anticipated delays

• Ranges from switching routes to rescheduling everything

Evacuation

• Danger is perceived and acted upon

Network simulation

• Dynamic

• Multimodal

• Macroscopic or mesoscopic

• Integrated with choice model Use commodities to:

• Track individuals

• Handle en-route choices

• Incorporate public transport

• Incorporate emergency services

Linking the model components

Serial and parallel procedures

Simulated time

Network loading

Choice (fraction of households) No choice (other households)

Network loading Choice

Simulated time

Serial procedure

Normal day

Find the equilibrium

Parallel procedure

Disaster scenario

Parallel procedure in detail

Network loading

for some time step, e.g. 1 min

Choice

for each household

Control

Locations of household members/vehicles Immediate

departure and route choices

Travel times and other information Network status Traffic control, emergency services Disaster plan Household memory (activity-travel schedules, received information) Household characteristics and

Evacuation conditions

• Inhabitants of Delft start evacuating between 16:00 and 17:30

• Must travel home prior to evacuating – and then leave together as

household

• Car used if available, otherwise public transport or walking

• Route choices continuously updated based on prevailing travel times

• Other people follow normal travel patterns

• Trains/trams/buses remain in normal operation

Simulation output

Conclusions

• New flexible and efficient model structure

• Practical case study insights

• Significant interaction of inbound, outbound and background traffic • Significant interaction between modes

• Spare public transport capacity may be available

Thank you.