Travel time prediction for urban networks

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(1)Travel Time Prediction for Urban Networks Hao Liu Delft University of Technology 21 October, 2008.

(2) Cover illustration: Hao Liu.

(3) Travel Time Prediction for Urban Networks. Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Technische Universiteit Delft, op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof.dr.ir. J.T. Fokkema, voorzitter van het College voor Promoties, in het openbaar te verdedigen op dinsdag 21 oktober 2008 om 10:00 uur door Hao LIU Master of Science in Engineering, RIOH, Beijing, P.R. China geboren te Dechang, Sichuan Province, P.R. China.

(4) Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotor: Prof. dr. H.J. van Zuylen Samenstelling promotiecommissie: Rector Magnificus Prof. dr. H.J. van Zuylen Prof. dr. ir. F.M. Sanders Prof. dr. ir. S.P. Hoogendoorn Dr. ir. J.W.C. van Lint Prof. dr. ir. X. Chen Prof. dr. ir. B. Immers Dr. Y. Wang Prof. dr. Cees Witteveen. voorzitter Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Technische Universiteit Delft Technische Universiteit Delft Technische Universiteit Delft, co-promotor Southeast University, P.R. China Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium Monash University, Australia Technische Universiteit Delft. TRAIL dissertation Series no. T2008/12, The Netherlands TRAIL Research School This dissertation is the result of a Ph.D. study carried out from November 2003 to June 2008 at Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Department of Transport and Planning. The research was sponsored partialy by the Sino-Netherlands ITS training center and the ATMO research project, and partialy by the Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of Communications, P.R.China. Published and distributed by:. TRAIL Research School P.O. Box 5017 2600 GA Delft The Netherlands T: +31 (0) 15 278 6046 F: +31 (0) 15 278 4333 E: info@rsTRAIL.nl ISBN: 978-90-5584-106-6 Copyright: © 2008 by Hao Liu All rights reserved. No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission of the author. Printed in The Netherlands.

(5) Dedicated to my parents Dekang and Chaolin.

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(180) =J@ PN=B? OECJ=H ?KJPNKHO .NA@E?PEJC PN=RAH PEIAO NAMQENAO LNA@E?PEJC PN=B? ?KJ@EPEKJO EJ PDA BQPQNA &KSARAN

(181) EJ = LN=?PE?=H OEPQ=PEKJ SA KJHU GJKS PDA PN=B? ?KJ@EPEKJO QL PK PDA ?QNNAJP PEIA EJOP=JP 2DQO

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(187) PDA >APPAN PDA IK@AH LANBKNIO 2K MQ=JPEBU PDEO

(188) = OEILHA >=OAHEJA IK@AH

(189) SDE?D EO SE@AHU QOA@ EJ LN=?PE?A

(190) SEHH >A ?KIL=NA@ SEPD PDA LNKLKOA@ IK@AH 2DA >=OAHEJA IK@AH OEILHU QOAO IA=OQNA@ PN=RAH PEIAO =O LNA@E?PA@ PN=RAH PEIAO OAA @AP=EHO EJ !D=LPAN ->REKQOHU

(191) PDA LQNLKOA EO PK @ARAHKL = IK@AH SDE?D KQPLANBKNIO PDA >=OAHEJA IK@AH 'J =@@EPEKJ

(192) KJA KN IKNA ATEOPEJC IK@AHO SEHH >A QOA@ BKN ?KIL=NEOKJ 1A?KJ@HU

(193) PDA LNKLKOA@ IK@AH ODKQH@ >A >;.A?@ 2DA NK>QOPJAOO NAMQENAO PDA LNKLKOA@ IK@AH PK >A ?=L=>HA KB ?KLEJC SAHH SEPD R=NE=PEKJO EJ EPO KLAN=PEJC AJRENKJIAJP 0K>QOP JAOO EO = MQ=HEPU SDE?D EO @EB?QHP PK =OOAOO MQ=JPEP=PERAHU 'J PDEO @EOOANP=PEKJ

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(198) OL=PE=H O?KLA

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(212) OQ?D =O NK=@ CAKIAPNU

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(214) PN=B? ?KILKOEPEKJ

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(287) !D=LPAN 'JPNK@Q?PEKJ. . Chapter 1 Introduction Appendix A Performance Indicators. Appendix B Various Travel Time Collection Systems. Appendix C Measured Mean Speed with respect to Detector Locations. Appendix D Levenberg-Marquardt and Bayesian Regularization. Appendix E Algorithms for Detecting Travel Time Outliers. Chapter 2 Fundamental Description of Urban Travel Time. Chapter 3 State-of-the-Art of Urban Travel Time Prediction. Chapter 4 Model Development for Urban Travel Time Prediction. Chapter 5 Model Testing on A Simulated Urban Route. Chapter 6 Real-time Application. Chapter 7 Conclusions and Recommendations for Further Research. 53A>1

(288)

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(299) PSK @EOPEJ?P NK=@ PULAO BKN PDA =LLHE?=PEKJ KB PN=RAH PEIA LNA@E?PEKJ ?=J >A A=OEHU E@AJPEA@ BNAAS=UO =J@ QN>=J OECJ=HEVA@ KN QJOECJ=HEVA@ OPNAAPO 2DEO EO @QA PK PDA B=?P PD=P PDA ?D=N=?PANEOPE?O KB BNAAS=UO =NA OECJE?=JPHU @EBBANAJP BNKI PDKOA KB QN>=J OPNAAPO 2DA BK?QO DANA EO KJ PN=RAH PEIA LNA@E?PEKJ OKHAHU BKN QN>=J OPNAAPO ABKNA SA ATLHKNA PDEO LNK>HAI

(300) SA NABAN PDA @AJEPEKJO KB BNAAS=UO =J@ QN>=J OPNAAPO =O PDKOA EJ 2N=JOLKNP=PEKJ 0AOA=N?D K=N@ 2>11C-E EO @AJA@ =O = @ERE@A@ DECDS=U SEPD BQHH ?KJPNKH KB =??AOO =J@ PSK KN IKNA H=JAO BKN PDA AT?HQOERA QOA KB PN=B? EJ A=?D @ENA?PEKJ 2DA PANI A>.-: ?@>11@ NABANO PK QN>=J =NPANE=HO =J@ ?KJJA?PKNO

(301) EJ?HQ@EJC PDKOA EJ @KSJPKSJ =NA=O 2DANA =NA JK OECJ=HEVA@ KN OPKL ?KJPNKHHA@ =P CN=@A EJPANOA?PEKJO =HKJC BNAAS=UO

(302) =J@ =??AOO PK =J@ BNKI PDA BNAAS=U EO HEIEPA@ PK N=IL HK?=PEKJO 2DA LNEJ?EL=H @EBBANAJ?A >APSAAJ BNAAS=U PN=B? =J@ QN>=J PN=B? EO PD=P PDA BKNIAN EO QJEJPANNQLPA@ SDEHA QN>=J PN=B? EO EJPANNQLPA@ =P EJPANOA?PEKJO "ALAJ@EJC KJ PDA ?KJPNKH O?DAIA =J@ PDA @ACNAA KB O=PQN=PEKJ

(303) PDA EJPANNQLPEKJ ?=QOAO OPK?D=OPE? @AH=UO 2DAOA @AH=UO ?KJOPEPQPA = H=NCA L=NP KB PN=RAH PEIAO KJ QN>=J OPNAAPO 4EPE 8QUHAJ L=NP BNKI PDA LNEJ?EL=H @EBBANAJ?A

(304) KPDAN EILKNP=JP B=?PKNO =HOK EJQAJ?A PDA PN=RAH PEIAO BKN QN>=J OPNAAPO %<110 ;:05@5;: 3N>=J OPNAAPO QOQ=HHU KLAN=PA =P HKSAN OLAA@O HAOO PD=J GID ?KIL=NA@ PK BNAAS=UO IKNA PD=J GID A? 8;/7-31 2DA EIL=?P KB HK?=H PN=JOEP >QOAO PD=P OPKL PK @EO?D=NCA KN LE?G QL L=OOAJCANO =P JA=N OE@A KN B=N OE@A >QO OPKLO I=U NAOQHP EJ EJ?NA=OA@ @AH=UO #101?@>5-: -:0 E/85?@ 5?@A>.-:/1 !KIL=NA@ SEPD BNAAS=UO

(305) RADE?HAO NQJJEJC KJ QN>=J OPNAAPO ?=J >A @EOPQN>A@ >U LA@AOPNE=JO =J@ ?U?HEOPO ?NKOOEJC OPNAAPO &>-:?5@ #>5;>5@E 2N=JOEP LNEKNEPU OECJ=H PEIEJC CERAO CNAAJ PEIA SEPD DECD LNEKNEPU PK LQ>HE? PN=JOEP

(306) SDEHA EP O=?NE?AO PEIA BKN LANOKJ=H ?=NO . #->75:3 2DA EJQAJ?AO KB L=NGEJC =NA JKP KJHU PDA NA@Q?PEKJ KB PDA ?=L=?EPU KB NK=@ B=?EHEPEAO >QP =HOK PDA @EOPQN>=J?AO KB PDA PN=B? 2DA @EOPQN>=J?AO EJ?HQ@A PDA BNE?PEKJ=H ABBA?P KB = L=NGEJC H=JA KJ PDA KS EJ =J =@F=?AJP H=JA =J@ PDA K??=OEKJ=H >HK?GEJC KB =J =@F=?AJP H=JA >U RADE?HAO IKREJC EJPK KN KQP KB L=NGEJC OL=?AO 'J PDEO @EOOANP=PEKJ

(307) SA SEHH JKP BQNPDAN EJRAOPEC=PA PDKOA B=?PKNO .

(308) . 20'* 2DAOEO OANEAO. 'J PDA JATP OA?PEKJ

(309) OKIA >=OE? @AJEPEKJO KB PN=RAH PEIAO KJ QN>=J OPNAAPO =NA LNAOAJPA@ O PDA @KIEJ=JP L=NPO KB PN=RAH PEIAO

(310) @AH=UO PD=P @NERANO ATLANEAJ?A KJ QN>=J OPNAAPO D=RA >AAJ EJRAOPEC=PA@ EJ @AP=EH 2DA =J=HUOEO KB @AH=UO SEHH >A DAHLBQH EJ @EOPEJCQEODEJC QN>=J PN=RAH PEIAO BNKI BNAAS=U PN=RAH PEIAO 'J PDA AJ@

(311) PDEO !D=LPAN EJPNK@Q?AO PDA >=OE? NAH=PEKJODEL >APSAAJ PN=RAH PEIAO =J@ PN=B? R=NE=>HAO RKHQIAO =J@ OLAA@O .=NPE?QH=NHU

(312) IA=OQNA@ PEIA IA=J OLAA@O =P @EBBANAJP HK?=PEKJO =HKJC =J QN>=J OACIAJP =NA =J=HUVA@ 2DA NAOQHPO ODKS PD=P OP=PEKJ=NEPU =J@ DKIKCAJAEPU I=U >A O=PEOA@ KJ BNAAS=UO >QP @K JKP DKH@ KJ QN>=J OPNAAPO. )41 -?5/ 1:5@5;:? ;2 )>-B18 )591 ;: *>.-: (@>11@?.

(313). 1:5@5;:? ;2 @41 8191:@? ;2 *>.-: #1@C;>7?. 'J PDEO @EOOANP=PEKJ

(314) PDA BKHHKSEJC @AJEPEKJO =NA QOA@ 1:5@5;:

(315) : 5:@1>?1/@5;: 5? - >;-0 6A:/@5;: C41>1 @C; ;> 9;>1 >;-0? 15@41> 911@ ;> />;?? -@ @41 ?-91 3>-01 ;> 81B18 1:5@5;: : A>.-: 85:7 5? - ?1/@5;: ;2 - A>.-: ?@>11@ .1@C11: @C; /;:?1/A@5B1 5:@1> ?1/@5;:? 1:5@5;: : A>.-: ?1391:@ 5? - /;9.5:-@5;: ;2 ;:1 A>.-: 85:7 -:0 ;:1 5:@1>?1/@5;: &C; @E<1? ;2 A>.-: ?1391:@? /-: .1 01:10 -//;>05:3 @; @41 8-E;A@ ;2 @41 ?1391:@ @E<1 -: 5:@1>?1/@5;: 5? /;::1/@10 @; @41 ?@->@ ;2 - A>.-: 85:7 @E<1 @41 1:0 ;2 -: A>.-: 85:7 5? 2;88;C10 .E -: A>.-: 5:@1>?1/@5;: 1:5@5;: : A>.-: ?@>11@ >;A@1 /;:?5?@? ;2 - :A9.1> ;2 /;:@53A;A? A>.-: ?1391:@? $ECQNA O?DAI=PE?=HHU KQPHEJAO PDA @EBBANAJP AHAIAJPO KB = PULE?=H QN>=J NKQPA 3JHAOO OLA?E?=HHU OP=PA@ KPDANSEOA

(316) =J EJPANOA?PEKJ EO @AJKPA@ SEPD EJ@AT :

(317) =J QN>=J HEJG EO @AJKPA@ SEPD EJ@AT 8

(318) =J QN>=J OACIAJP EO @AJKPA@ SEPD EJ@AT ?

(319) =J@ =J QN>=J NKQPA EO @AJKPA@ SEPD EJ@AT > . 1:5@5;:? ;2 )>-B18 )591?. 2DA BKHHKSEJC OA?PEKJ LNAOAJPO OKIA >=OE? @AJEPEKJO KB PN=RAH PEIAO QOA@ EJ PDEO @EOOAN P=PEKJ >=OA@ KJ 4=J *EJP =J@ KRU 2DEFO 2N=RAH PEIA EO PDA @QN=PEKJ KB PEIA PD=P = @NERAN P=GAO BNKI PDA OP=NP KB = PNEL PK PDA AJ@ KB = PNEL 2DA OL=PE=H O?KLA KB PDEO PNEL ?=J >A =J EJPANOA?PEKJ

(320) KN =J QN>=J HEJG

(321) KN = OACIAJP KN = NKQPA 2N=RAH PEIA ?=J >A ATLNAOOA@ =O. & & @ @. . SDANA @ @AJKPAO PDA PEIA EJOP=JP SDAJ = @NERAN @AL=NPO BNKI PDA OP=NP KB PDA PNEL

(322) @ @AJKPAO PDA PEIA EJOP=JP SDAJ PDA @NERAN =NNERAO =P PDA AJ@ KB PDA PNEL.

(323) !D=LPAN $QJ@=IAJP=H "AO?NELPEKJ KB 3N>=J 2N=RAH 2EIA. . Route Segment Link. Intersection. 53A>1

(324) 1?DAI=PE? NALNAOAJP=PEKJ KB = PULE?=H QN>=J NKQPA =J@ >=OE? AHAIAJPO. :05B50A-8 -:0 33>13-@10 )>-B18 )591 1:5@5;: &41 5:05B50A-8 @>-B18 @591 & &5 @ 5? @41 @591 @4-@ - ?5:381 B145/81 0>5B1> 5 @>-B1>?1? @41 >;A@1 ;2 5:@1>1?@ -@ 01<->@A>1 @591 5:?@-:@ @ 1:5@5;: &41 -33>13-@10 @>-B18 @591 & & < 5? 01:10 -? @41 ->5@491@5/ 91-: @>-B18 @591 ;2 @41 <;<A8-@5;: ;2 -88 B145/81? @4-@ @>-B1>?1 @41 >;A@1 ;2 5:@1>1?@ 0A>5:3 @41 01<-> @A>1 @591 <1>5;0 < 9@ @ : &41 91-: @>-B18 @591 ;2 @41 -33>13-@10 5:@1>B-8 /-: .1 1D<>1??10 -? @41 -B1>-31 ;2 5:05B50A-8 @>-B18 @591? & & < . ! # & &5 @ @ < ! 5. SDANA ! @AJKPAO PDA PKP=H JQI>AN KB RADE?HAO @AL=NPEJC @QNEJC PEIA LANEK@ < 1<->@A>1 -:0 >>5B-8 )>-B18 )591 1:5@5;: :05B50A-8 01<->@A>1 @>-B18 @591 & &50 @ 5? @41 @>-B18 @591 C5@4 01<->@A>1 @591 5:?@-:@ @ 33>13-@10 01<->@A>1 @>-B18 @591 & & 0 < 5? @41 -B1>-31 @>-B18 @591 C5@45: 01<->@A>1 @591 <1>5;0 < 1:5@5;: :05B50A-8 ->>5B-8 @>-B18 @591 & &5- @ 5? @41 @>-B18 @591 C5@4 ->>5B-8 @591 5:?@-:@ @ 33>13-@10 ->>5B-8 @>-B18 @591 & & - < 5? @41 -B1>-31 @>-B18 @591 C5@45: ->>5B-8 @591 <1>5;0 < ,KPA PD=P A=?D RADE?HA D=O >KPD @AL=NPQNA =J@ =NNER=H PN=RAH PEIAO SDAJ EP PN=RANOAO = JEPA HAJCPD KB = NKQPA $KN PDEO RADE?HA 5

(325) & &50 @ & &5- @ @ @ $ECQNA ODKSO PSK RADE?HAO PN=FA?PKNEAO CN=LDE?=HHU

(326) =J@ PDA @AL=NPQNA =J@ =NNER=H PN=RAH PEIAO BKN PN=RAHEJC BNKI D PK D .

(327) . 20'* 2DAOEO OANEAO. Space. travel time of vehicle B from x0 to x1 travel time of vehicle A from x0 to x1. x1 individual departure travel time and arrival travel time are defined as Vehicle A: TTAd (t0 ) = TTAa (t2 ) = t2 − t0 Vehicle B: TTBd (t1 ) = TTBa (t3 ) = t3 − t1. Vehicle Trajectory. A. B. x0 t0. t1. t2. t3. Time. 53A>1 2DA EJ@ERE@Q=H @AL=NPQNA =J@ =NNER=H PN=RAH PEIA =NA K>P=EJA@ BNKI RADE?HA PN=FA?PKNEAO. )>-B18 )591 $.?1>B-@5;:? 2DA QOA KB ?=IAN=O PK ?=LPQNA RADE?HA HE?AJOA LH=PA JQI>ANO EO SE@AHU =??ALPA@ BKN IA= OQNEJC PN=RAH PEIAO KPDAN IAPDK@O KB IA=OQNEJC PN=RAH PEIAO OAAJ EJ LLAJ@ET 5EPD HE?AJOA LH=PA ?=IAN=O

(328) PN=RAH PEIA K>OANR=PEKJO =NA KJHU =R=EH=>HA SDAJ PDA RADE?HAO ?KI LHAPA PDAEN PNELO 2DANABKNA

(329) A=?D EJ@ERE@Q=H PN=RAH PEIA K>OANR=PEKJ ?=JJKP >A ?=H?QH=PA@ QJHAOO >KPD KB PDA @AL=NPQNA PEIA EJOP=JP =J@ =NNER=H PEIA EJOP=JP =NA =R=EH=>HA ,KNI=HHU

(330) PN=RAH PEIA ?KHHA?PEKJ OUOPAIO LNKRE@A KJHU =NNER=H PN=RAH PEIAO QP

(331) @AL=NPQNA PN=RAH PEIAO =NA IKNA ?KJRAJEAJP BKN PN=RAH PEIA LNA@E?PEKJ 2DANABKNA

(332) PDANA EO = JAA@ PK ?KJRANP =NNER=H PN=RAH PEIAO PK @AL=NPQNA PN=RAH PEIAO 2DA OEILHA S=U PK K>P=EJ EJ@ERE@Q=H @AL=NPQNA PN=RAH PEIAO EO >U ODEBPEJC =NNER=H PN=RAH PEIAO >=?GS=N@ SEPD PDA =>OKHQPA R=HQA KB PN=RAH PEIAO KJ PDA PEIA =TEO $ECQNA = ODKSO =J AT=ILHA KB PDA AILENE?=H EJ@ERE@Q=H PN=RAH PEIA K>OANR=PEKJO ?KHHA?PA@ BNKI =J QN>=J OPNAAP

(333) )NQEPDQEOSAC

(334) EJ "AHBP

(335) EJ PDA ,APDANH=J@O 'P EO EJPANAOPEJC PD=P PDA =CCNAC=PA@ @AL=NPQNA PN=RAH PEIA K>OANR=PEKJO =NA JKP PDA NAOQHPO KB OEILHU ODEBPEJC PDA =CCNAC=PA@ =NNER=H PN=RAH PEIA K>OANR=PEKJO OAAJ EJ $ECQNA >. 2DEO EO @QA PK PDA @EBBANAJP OLAA@O KB RADE?HAO =J@ KRANP=GEJC =?PEREPEAO $KN = OEILHA AT=ILHA

(336) RADE?HA =J@ =NNERA =P PDA AJ@ KB = PNEL @QNEJC PDA O=IA =NNER=H =CCNAC=PA@ LANEK@

(337) SDEHA RADE?HA @AL=NPO KJA @AL=NPQNA =CCNAC=PA@ LANEK@ >ABKNA RADE?HA ->RE KQOHU

(338) RADE?HA NQJO B=OPAN PD=J RADE?HA 2DQO

(339) PDAU D=RA PDA O=IA =CCNAC=PA@ =NNER=H PEIA LANEK@

(340) >QP OAL=N=PA ?KJPNE>QPEKJO PK PSK =CCNAC=PA@ @AL=NPQNA PEIA LANEK@O )>-B18 )591 ?@59-@5;: -:0 %>105/@5;: &>-B18 @591 1?@59-@5;: NABANO PK PDA ?=H?QH=PEKJ KB PDA IA=J PN=RAH PEIAO KB NA=HEVA@ PNELO >=OA@ KJ GJKSJ PN=B? MQ=JPEPEAO AC OLAA@O

(341) KSO

(342) =J@ @AJOEPEAO

(343) AP? KRU 2DEFO 2D=P EO

(344) AOPEI=PA@ PN=RAH PEIAO =NA @ANERA@ BNKI PN=B? IA=OQNAIAJPO QL PK PDA LNAOAJP PEIA EJOP=JPLANEK@ OAA $ECQNA 2N=RAH PEIA AOPEI=PEKJ

(345) >U @AJEPEKJ

(346) EO = PA?DJEMQA QOA@ EJ ?=OAO SDANA @ENA?PHU IA=OQNA@ PN=RAH PEIAO =NA JKP =R=EH=>HA.

(347) !D=LPAN $QJ@=IAJP=H "AO?NELPEKJ KB 3N>=J 2N=RAH 2EIA. . (a) Individual Travel Time Observations Travel Time (seconds). 700 individual departure travel time individual arrival travel time. 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 7:00. 8:00. 9:00. 10:00. Time (b) Aggregated Travel Time Observations Travel Time (seconds). 700 aggregated departure travel time aggregated arrival travel time. 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 7:00. 8:00. 9:00. 10:00. Time. 53A>1 2N=RAH PEIA K>OANR=PEKJO ?KHHA?PA@ BNKI = LNKREJ?E=H NK=@

(348) )NQEPDQEOSAC

(349) KB "AHBP

(350) EJ PDA ,APDANH=J@O @QNEJC PDA LANEK@ KB PK + KJ LNEH

(351) = EJ@ERE@Q=H PN=RAH PEIA K>OANR=PEKJO > =CCNAC=PA@ PN=RAH PEIA SEPD PEIA EJPANR=H KB IEJQPAO. &>-B18 @591 <>105/@5;: NABANO PK PDA ?=H?QH=PEKJ KB PDA @AL=NPQNA PN=RAH PEIA BKN PDA BQPQNA PN=B? ?KJ@EPEKJO .NA@E?PA@ PN=RAH PEIAO =NA ?=H?QH=PA@ >=OA@ KJ JKP KJHU PDA L=OP PN=B? ?KJ@EPEKJO >QP =HOK PDA BQPQNA PN=B? ?KJ@EPEKJO 2DA L=OP PN=B? ?KJ@EPEKJO =NA GJKSJ =J@ ?=J >A IA=OQNA@ &KSARAN