Influence of Different Types of Surfaces on the Results of Running Speed Tests in Young Soccer Players

INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF SURFACES ON THE RESULTS

OF RUNNING SPEED TESTS IN YOUNG SOCCER PLAYERS

=ELJQLHZ-DVWU]ĊEVNL

$%'

_{0DUWD%LFKRZVND}

'

_{3DZHá5RPSD}

$%

àXNDV]5DG]LPLĔVNL

%'

_{5REHUW'DUJLHZLF]}

&

_{*GDQVN8QLYHUVLW\RI3K\VLFDO(GXFDWLRQDQG6SRUW'HSDUWPHQWRI%LRPHGLFDO+HDOWK%DVLFV.*yUVNLHJR*GDQVN3RODQG} _{*GDQVN8QLYHUVLW\RI3K\VLFDO(GXFDWLRQDQG6SRUW'HSDUWPHQWRI,QIRUPDWLFVDQG6WDWLVWLFV.*yUVNLHJR*GDQVN3RODQG} $ _{6WXG\'HVLJQ}B'DWD&ROOHFWLRQC6WDWLVWLFDO$QDO\VLV'_{0DQXVFULSW3UHSDUDWLRQ}E _{Funds Collection}

Address for correspondence:

=ELJQLHZ-DVWU]ĊEVNL *GDQVN8QLYHUVLW\RI3K\VLFDO(GXFDWLRQDQG6SRUW .*yUVNLHJR*GDĔVN3RODQG 3KRQH (PDLO]EMDVWU]HEVNL#RSSO

Abstract.

7KHPDLQSXUSRVHRIWKLVVWXG\ZDVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHLQIOXHQFHRIGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIVXUIDFHVRQWKHVSULQWWHVWUHVXOWV PDOHIRRWEDOOSOD\HUVIURPWZRDJHFDWHJRULHV±8DQG8±SHUIRUPHGVSULQWWHVWVGLVWDQFHVEHWZHHQDQGP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

Key words:

6SULQWWHVWVIRRWEDOOVSRUWSK\VLRORJ\H[HUFLVHWHVWSK\VLFDOSHUIRUPDQFH

Introduction

7KHDELOLW\WRUXQTXLFNO\LVRQHRIWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWPRWRUDELOLWLHVRIIRRWEDOOSOD\HUV%HFDXVHRIWKH VSHFLILFLW\RIWKHJDPHWKHW\SHDQGTXDOLW\RIWKHVXUIDFHXVHGGXULQJD IRRWEDOOPDWFKSOD\VD crucial role in the TXDOLW\RIWKHVSRUWVHYHQWZKLFKLVKLJKO\GHSHQGHQWRQWKHUXQQLQJVSHHGRIWKHSOD\HUV$FFRUGLQJWRJDPH UHJXODWLRQVD IRRWEDOOPDWFKFDQEHSHUIRUPHGLQGLIIHUHQWZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVDQGRQYDULRXVVXUIDFHV6\QWKHWLF DQGQDWXUDOVXUIDFHVDUHERWKFRPPRQO\XVHGEXWQDWXUDOVXUIDFHVDUHPRUHFRPPRQZRUOGZLGH+RZHYHUWKH use of synthetic surfaces has increased recently because of their lower maintenance costs and ability to be used in DGYHUVHZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVHVSHFLDOO\LQFRXQWULHVZLWKH[WUHPHO\KRWRUFROGFOLPDWHV6\QWKHWLFZHDWKHUUHVLVWDQW UXQQLQJVXUIDFHVFRQVLVWRIUXEEHUJUDQXOHVERXQGE\SRO\SURS\OHQHRUSRO\HWK\OHQH

0DQ\VFLHQWLVWVKDYHDVVHVVHGWKHLPSDFWRIGLIIHUHQWVXUIDFHVRQWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIFRDFKLQJSURFHVVHV DQGRQWKHKHDOWKRIIRRWEDOOSOD\HUV(NVWUDQGHWDOIRXQGWKDWV\QWKHWLFVXUIDFHVKDYHD significant influence on the occurrence of injury among footballSOD\HUV.DWNDWHWDOVWXGLHGWKHLQFUHDVHGPXVFOHIDWLJXHWKDW UHVXOWVIURPSUDFWLFLQJRQILHOGVZLWKDQDUWLILFLDOOD\HU+RZHYHU=DQHWWLIRFXVHGRQD GLIIHUHQWDVSHFWRI IRRWEDOOWUDLQLQJRQYDULRXVVXUIDFHV+HUVWXGLHVFRQILUPHGWKHVLJQLILFDQWSRVLWLYHLPSDFWRIV\QWKHWLFVXUIDFHVRQ WKHWHFKQLFDOVNLOOOHYHOVRIWKHSOD\HUV1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHUHVXOWVRIVWXGLHVE\$QGHUVVRQHWDOUHYHDOHGWKDW LWZDVPRUHGLIILFXOWWRSHUIRUPFHUWDLQWHFKQLTXHVRQV\QWKHWLFVXUIDFHVDQGVRV\QWKHWLFVXUIDFHVZHUHGHHPHG LQIHULRUWRQDWXUDOJUDVV+RZHYHUQRGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQWKHWRWDOGLVWDQFHVFRYHUHGGXULQJWKHPDWFK 0RUHRYHUWKHVWXG\VKRZHGWKDWWDFNOLQJWKHEDOOWRRNORQJHURQWKHV\QWKHWLFVXUIDFH*DLQVHWDOSURYLGHG VLPLODUUHVXOWVUHJDUGLQJWKHVSHHGDQGDJLOLW\DELOLWLHVRIIRRWEDOOSOD\HUVRQFROOHJHWHDPV7KHUHVXOWVUHYHDOHGWKDW WKHW\SHRIVXUIDFHVLJQLILFDQWO\LQIOXHQFHGWKHVXEMHFWV¶SHUIRUPDQFH0OOHUHWDODQDO\]HGWKHLQIOXHQFHRI WKHVXUIDFHRQIRRWEDOOSOD\HUV¶SK\VLFDOFDSDFLW\ 'LIIHUHQWVXUIDFHVPD\DOVRDIIHFWWKHUHVXOWVRIFRQWUROWHVWVZKLFKDUHRIWHQXVHGWRDVVHVVVNLOOGHYHORSPHQW %DVHGRQWKHVHUHVXOWVFRDFKHVPRGLI\WKHWUDLQLQJSURJUDP0XMLNDHWDO6SRULVHWDO7KHUHIRUH LQFRQVLVWHQFLHVLQWKHWHVWVHVSHFLDOO\UHJDUGLQJUXQQLQJVSHHGPD\QHJDWLYHO\LQIOXHQFHWKHRSWLPL]DWLRQRIWKH SUHSDUDWLRQIRUPDWFKSOD\ 7KHPDMRULW\RIVWXGLHVDQDO\]HGHLWKHUWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKHVXUIDFHRQSOD\HUV¶KHDOWKDQGWHFKQLFDOVNLOOV RUWKHLQIOXHQFHRIDSSOLHGIRRWZHDURQWKHLUJDPHHIIHFWLYHQHVVIRUGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIVXUIDFH+RZHYHUOLWWOHLV NQRZQDERXWWKHGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHUHVXOWVRIUXQQLQJVSHHGWHVWVSHUIRUPHGRQQDWXUDOV\QWKHWLFRUUXEEHULQGRRU VXUIDFHVZKHQSRRUZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVUDLQRUVWURQJZLQGSUHYHQWHGWKHVXEMHFWVIURPWHVWLQJRQWKHIRRWEDOO SLWFK7KHUHIRUHWKHDLPRIWKLVVWXG\ZDVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHLQIOXHQFHRIGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIVXUIDFHVRQUXQQLQJWHVW UHVXOWV,WZDVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHUXQQLQJVSHHGRI\RXQJIRRWEDOOSOD\HUVUHJDUGOHVVRIWKHLUDJHFDWHJRU\DQG UXQQLQJGLVWDQFHOHQJWKZDVWKHKLJKHVWZKHQWHVWHGRQWKHUXEEHUVXUIDFHDQGWKHORZHVWZKHQWHVWHGRQQDWXUDO JUDVV

0HWKRGV

7KHWHVWHGPDWHULDOVFRQVLVWHGRIWKUHHW\SHVRIVXUIDFHVQDWXUDOJUDVV>Q@D V\QWKHWLFVXUIDFH>V@DQGD rubber VXUIDFH>U@7KHUXQQLQJVSHHGVZHUHDOVRPHDVXUHGGXULQJWKHWHVWVRQHDFKVXUIDFH7KHSDUWLFLSDQWVVWDUWHG running from a VWDQGLQJSRVLWLRQ>VWDW@RUZLWKD PUXQXS>G\Q@IRUWKHDQGPVWDWDQGG\QGLVWDQFHVDQG IURPVWDQGLQJIRUWKHPDQGPVWDWGLVWDQFHVWKHVXEMHFWVDOVRSHUIRUPHGD PVKXWWOHUXQ7KHUHVHDUFK was conducted on a VDPSOHRIIRRWEDOOSOD\HUVIURPWZRDJHFDWHJRULHV8DQG87DEOH6WDQGDUG DQWKURSRPHWU\FDOHQGDUDJHERG\KHLJKWDQGPDVVDQG%0,DQGSHUIRUPDQFHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWLPHUHVXOWV W\SHVRIVXUIDFHVFRPELQHGZLWKW\SHVRIUXQVZHUHFROOHFWHGIRUHDFKSDUWLFLSDQW 7KHSOD\HUVZHUHPHPEHUVRIWKH)RRWEDOO$FDGHP\LQ0DOERUN(DFKZHHNWKH\SDUWLFLSDWHGLQILYHWUDLQLQJ VHVVLRQVDSSUR[LPDWHO\KHDFKDQGWKUHHSK\VLFDOHGXFDWLRQSHULRGVPLQHDFK$OOWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUH VWXGHQWVRIWKH6SRUWV0LGGOH6FKRROZKRSOD\HGIRRWEDOODQGKDGYDOLGPHGLFDOFDUGV,QDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKH +HOVLQNL'HFODUDWLRQWKHSOD\HUVDQGWKHLUSDUHQWVRUJXDUGLDQVZHUHSURYLGHGZLWKGHWDLOHGLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKH UHVHDUFKSURFHGXUHVDQGJDYHWKHLUZULWWHQFRQVHQW7KHSURWRFROVUHFHLYHGHWKLFVDSSURYDOIURPWKHLQVWLWXWLRQ <RXQJIRRWEDOOSOD\HUVZHUHVXEMHFWHGWRUXQQLQJVSHHGWHVWVRQWKUHHGLIIHUHQWUXQQLQJVXUIDFHV)RUWKH ILUVWZHHNWKHWHVWVZHUHFRQGXFWHGRQD IRRWEDOOSLWFKZLWKQDWXUDOJUDVV>Q@JURZQIURP3ROLVKVHHGVGHVLJQHG

IRUIRRWEDOOSLWFKHV7KHIRRWEDOOSLWFKZDVZHOOURRWHGWKUHH\HDUVRIYHJHWDWLRQDQGPRZHGWRD KHLJKWRIPP EHIRUHWKHWHVW7KHWHVWVLQWKHVHFRQGZHHNZHUHFDUULHGRXWRQD V\QWKHWLFVXUIDFH>V@'XWFKILUP*UHHQILHOGV 6SRUW7XUI6\VWHPZLWKPPKLJKILEHUV5HDO)79VOLGH73(HO,QWKHWKLUGZHHND UXEEHULQGRRUVXUIDFH>U@ IURPWKHVSRUWVKDOORIWKH'XWFKILUP%9'HVFRO.XQVWVWRI&KHPLH3XODVWLFZDVXVHG $OOWKHUXQQLQJWLPHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHWDNHQRQ7XHVGD\PRUQLQJVEHWZHHQDQGRIWKUHH FRQVHFXWLYHZHHNVDWWKHHQGRI$XJXVWDQGWKHEHJLQQLQJRI6HSWHPEHU2QWKHGD\VOHDGLQJXSWRWKHWHVW GDWHVWKHVXEMHFWVSOD\HGIULHQGO\PDWFKHVRQ6DWXUGD\PRUQLQJV6XQGD\VDQG0RQGD\VZHUHUHFRYHU\GD\V %HFDXVHWKHSOD\HUVUHVWHGIRUKRXUVDIWHUWKHLUODVWSK\VLFDOHIIRUWWKLVWLPHZDVFRQVLGHUHGVXIILFLHQWIRUIXOO UHFRYHU\7KHWHVWVZHUHFRQGXFWHGDWWKHHQGRIWKHSUHVHDVRQSHULRG)RUWKHILUVWZHHNWKHDLUWHPSHUDWXUHZDV EHWZHHQDQGƒ&WKHDLUSUHVVXUHZDVK3DDQGWKHZLQGVSHHGGLGQRWH[FHHGPV,QWKHVHFRQG ZHHNWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJFRQGLWLRQVZHUH±ƒ&K3DDQGPV,QWKHWKLUGZHHNLQWKHJ\PKDOOZLWK DLUFRQGLWLRQLQJWKHDLUWHPSHUDWXUHZDVƒ&WKHDLUSUHVVXUHZDVK3DDQGWKHDLUPRYHPHQWUHDFKHG PV'XULQJWKHILUVWWZRZHHNVQRSUHFLSLWDWLRQRFFXUUHGWKUHHGD\VEHIRUHWKHWHVWV0RUHRYHUHDFKILHOGKDG a GUDLQDJHV\VWHPWKXVQRVWDJQDQWZDWHUZDVSUHVHQWDWWKHWHVWLQJSODFH7KHVSRUWVIRRWZHDUXVHGGXULQJWKH UXQQLQJWHVWVRQERWKWKHQDWXUDODQGV\QWKHWLFVXUIDFHVZDVWKHVDPH3XPDYOHDWKHU'XULQJWKHWHVWVRQWKH UXEEHUVXUIDFHWKHSOD\HUVXVHGIRRWZHDUZLWKUXEEHUVROHV3XPD(VLWR)LQDOHW\SHGHVLJQHGIRULQGRRUDFWLYLW\ %HIRUHHDFKWHVWWKHSOD\HUVSHUIRUPHGZDUPXSH[HUFLVHVIRUPLQLQFOXGLQJPLQRIUXQQLQJDW +5PD[WKHQPLQRIVWUHWFKLQJPLQDFWLYHDQGPLQVWDWLFPLQRILQGLYLGXDOH[HUFLVHVIRUJHQHUDOVWUHQJWK DQGPLQRIH[SORVLYHVWUHQJWKH[HUFLVHVORZKXUGOHMXPSV$WWKHHQGRIWKHZDUPXSWKHVXEMHFWVUDQIRUPLQ DWORZLQWHQVLW\MRJZLWKWKUHHLQGLYLGXDOVSULQWVRIPPDQGP7KLVUXQQLQJZDVIROORZHGE\PDUFKLQJIRU PLQDQGPLQRID ORZLQWHQVLW\UXQMRJZLWKWKUHHLQGLYLGXDOVSULQWVRIPPDQGP %HIRUHWKHUXQQLQJWHVWVZHUHSHUIRUPHGWKHZLQGVSHHGDQGGLUHFWLRQZHUHPHDVXUHG6SHHGVWKDWGLG QRWH[FHHGPVZHUHDVVXPHGWREHDSSURSULDWHIRUWKHH[SHULPHQW7KHVWDUWLQJOLQHZDVDOZD\VSODFHGLQWKH VDPHPDQQHUWRPLQLPL]HWKHDLUUHVLVWDQFH7KHSOD\HUVUDQLQWKHGLUHFWLRQRIWKHZLQG7KHWLPHZDVPHDVXUHG XVLQJDQHOHFWURQLF7$*+HXHUV\VWHPPRGHO+/6ZLW]HUODQGUHFRPPHQGHGE\<HDGRQ.DWR .HUZLQ DQGLWLQFOXGHGWZRSKRWRFHOOVZLWKD PHFKDQLVPIRUSUHYHQWLQJSUHPDWXUHVZLWFKLQJRQVWDUWLQJOLQHDQG RIIILQLVKLQJOLQH(DFKGLVWDQFHZDVFRYHUHGE\WKHSOD\HUVVHSDUDWHO\7KHWLPHEHWZHHQFURVVLQJWKHVWDUWLQJ OLQHDQGUHDFKLQJWKHILQLVKLQJOLQHZDVPHDVXUHG7LPHVEHWZHHQRWKHUSKRWRFHOOVZLWKLQWKHGLVWDQFHZHUHQRW FRQVLGHUHG7KHPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHWDNHQGXULQJWKHIROORZLQJUXQVPIURPWKHVWDQGLQJSRVLWLRQ>PVWDW@P with a PUXQXS>PG\Q@PIURPD VWDQGLQJSRVLWLRQ>PVWDW@PZLWKD PUXQXS>PG\Q@P from a VWDQGLQJSRVLWLRQ>P@DQGPIURPD VWDQGLQJSRVLWLRQ>P@7KHPDQGPUXQVIURPD standing SRVLWLRQZHUHSHUIRUPHGWZLFHDQGWKHVKRUWHUWLPHUHVXOWVZHUHDQDO\]HG7KHSOD\HUVDOZD\VVWDUWHGWKHUXQIURP a VWDQGLQJSRVLWLRQZLWKWKHLUIRUZDUGIRRWRQWKHVWDUWLQJOLQH7KHUHFRYHU\WLPHEHWZHHQWKHWHVWVZDVPLQDIWHU WKHPUXQIURPD VWDQGLQJSRVLWLRQPLQDIWHUPUXQZLWKD UXQXSPLQDIWHUWKHPUXQIURPD standing SRVLWLRQPLQDIWHUWKHPUXQZLWKD UXQXSDQGPLQDIWHUWKHPUXQIURPD VWDQGLQJSRVLWLRQ$FWLYH UHFRYHU\PLQRIPDUFKLQJDOWHUQDWHGZLWKPLQRIVWDWLFVWUHWFKLQJZDVDGPLQLVWHUHGWRWKHSOD\HUVGXULQJWKH EUHDNV$IWHUWKHPUXQWKHUHZDVD PLQEUHDNLQFOXGLQJD PLQPDUFKD PLQORZLQWHQVLW\UXQPLQRI VWDWLFVWUHWFKLQJDQGPLQRILQGLYLGXDOSUHSDUDWLRQIRUWKHVKXWWOHUXQWHVWHJUXQQLQJEDFNDQGIRUWK7KHWHVW involved a PVKXWWOHUXQ7KHVXEMHFWVWDUWHGIURPWKHVWDQGLQJSRVLWLRQZLWKKLVIRUZDUGIRRWRQWKHVWDUWLQJOLQH 7KHQKHVHTXHQWLDOO\FRYHUHGGLVWDQFHVRIPPPPDQGP$IWHUWRXFKLQJWKHILQLVKLQJOLQHRIHDFK

GLVWDQFHZLWKKLVIRRWWKHSDUWLFLSDQWUDQEDFNWRWKHVWDUWLQJOLQH$OOWKHUHVXOWVZHUHUHJLVWHUHGE\DQ0VSRUWV3UR 9V\VWHPDWWDFKHGWRWKH7$*+HXHUHOHFWURQLFV\VWHP 6WDWLVWLFDYZDVXVHGIRUDOODQDO\VHV7KH.RáPRJRURZ6PLUQRZWHVWZLWK/LOOLHIRUV¶VDPHQGPHQWDQGWKH 6KDSLUR:LONWHVWZHUHDSSOLHGWRFKHFNWKHKRPRJHQHLW\DQGQRUPDOLW\RIWKHWLPHVIRUHDFKGLVWDQFHFROOHFWHGRQ WKUHHGLIIHUHQWVXUIDFHV&RFKUDQ¶V&+DUWOH\%DUWHOODQG/HYHQHWHVWVZHUHXVHGWRFKHFNWKHKRPRJHQHLW\RI WKHYDULDQFH%R[¶V0WHVWZDVXVHGWRYHULI\WKHKRPRJHQHLW\RIWKHFRYDULDQFHK\SRWKHVLV6WDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHVZHUHGHWHUPLQHGZLWKWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIPXOWLYDULDWHDQDO\VLVRIYDULDQFH0$129$DQGVHFRQGDU\ $129$WHVWVZLWKWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRISRVWKRF/6')LVKHUDQG+6'7XNH\WHVWV1H[WWKHDVVXPSWLRQRISDUDOOHO UHJUHVVLRQOLQHVZDVYHULILHGDQGIROORZHGE\DQDQDO\VLVRIFRYDULDQFH$1&29$WRLQFOXGHWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKH YDULDEOHVIRUGLIIHUHQWVXUIDFHVWKDWZHUHLQYROYHGLQWKHUXQQLQJWLPHUHVXOWVIRUGLIIHUHQWGLVWDQFHV7KHVLJQLILFDQFH ZDVVHWDWS

Results

)LUVW WKH IRRWEDOO SOD\HUV¶ DQWKURSRPHWULF YDULDEOHV ZHUH DQDO\]HG WKH KRPRJHQHLW\ RI GLVSHUVLRQ IURP a QRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQZDVFKHFNHG)RUDOOWKHSOD\HUVLQYROYHGLQWKHH[SHULPHQWQRQRUPDOLW\ZDVIRXQGUHJDUGLQJ DJHDQG%0,7KHEDUFKDUWRIDJHVKRZHGWKHSRVVLELOLW\RIFUHDWLQJWZRVXEVHWV7KHVXEMHFWVZHUHGLYLGHGLQWR WZRDJHFDWHJRULHVXSWR\HDUVDQGRYHU\HDUV$IWHUFKHFNLQJWKHKRPRJHQHLW\DQGQRUPDOLW\RIWKHVXEVHWV a WZRVHWSUHGLFWRUIRUWKHDJHFDWHJRU\YDULDEOH>88@ZDVGHWHUPLQHGHQDEOLQJWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRISDUDPHWULF VWDWLVWLFV$VD UHVXOWVXEMHFWVUHSUHVHQWHG8ZLWKD PHDQDJHYDOXHRI0 “DQGIRRWEDOOSOD\HUV ZHUHDOORFDWHGWR8ZLWK0 “\HDUV

$IWHUFKHFNLQJWKHKRPRJHQHLW\DQGQRUPDOLW\RIWKHYDULDEOHVLQDOOFRPELQDWLRQVLQFOXGLQJWKHDJHFDWHJRU\ DQGVXUIDFHIDFWRUVVXEJURXSVZHUHVHWXSWKH%0,YDULDEOHZDVH[FOXGHGIURPIXUWKHUDQDO\VLV$OORWKHUYDULDEOHV met the statistical requirements for a SDUDPHWULF DQDO\VLV 0RUHRYHU WKH KRPRJHQHLW\ RI WKH PXOWLGLPHQVLRQDO FRYDULDQFHRIWKHWLPHUHVXOWVIRUVHYHQUXQQLQJGLVWDQFHVZDVGHWHUPLQHGSHUPXWDWLRQVRIGLIIHUHQWVHWVRI%R[¶V 0WHVW%HFDXVHRIWKHVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVWKHVKXWWOHUXQYDULDEOHZDVUHMHFWHGEHFDXVHRIWKHODFNRIKRPRJHQHLW\ ZLWKWKHRWKHUUHVXOWVPRVWOLNHO\EHFDXVHRIWKHDFFHOHUDWLRQFKDQJHVGXULQJWKHVKXWWOHUXQ 'LIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHWLPHUHVXOWVREWDLQHGIRUWKHVDPHUXQQLQJGLVWDQFHRQYDULRXVVXUIDFHVZHUHFRXQWHG ZLWKWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRID PXOWLGLPHQVLRQDODQDO\VLVRIYDULDQFH0$129$)LUVWWKHKRPRJHQHLW\RIYDULDQFHRIDOO YDULDEOHVWKDWPHWWKHVWDWLVWLFDOUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUIXUWKHUFRPSDULVRQV6KDSLUR:LON/HYHQHDQG%R[¶V0WHVWV ZDVFKHFNHG $VVKRZQLQ7DEOHWKHW\SHRIVXUIDFHSDQGWKHDJHFDWHJRU\SFDQKDYHD significant LQIOXHQFHRQWKHUXQQLQJWLPHUHVXOWVIRUWKHPG\QPDQGPGLVWDQFHUXQVRIWKHWHVWHGIRRWEDOOSOD\HUV +RZHYHUQRVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRIWKHVXUIDFHS!RQWKHWLPHUHVXOWVZDVIRXQGIRUWKHPVWDWDQGPG\Q UXQVXQOLNHWKHDJHFDWHJRU\YDULDEOH $OWKRXJKD VLJQLILFDQWLQIOXHQFHRIWKHW\SHRIVXUIDFHDQGDJHFDWHJRU\RQWKHUXQQLQJWLPHUHVXOWVIRUWKH FKRVHQGLVWDQFHVZDVQRWFRQILUPHGIRUDOOWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVLWFDQEHDVVXPHGEDVHGRQWKH6KDSLUR:LONWHVW that there is a SUREDELOLW\WKDWWKHVHSUHGLFWRUVKDYHD VLJQLILFDQWLQIOXHQFHRQYDULDEOHVIRUWKHHQWLUHJURXSRIWHVWHG VXEMHFWV7DEOH

Table 1.

&RPSDULVRQRILQIOXHQFHRIWKHSUHGLFWRUVRQWKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVUXQQLQJGLVWDQFHVLQDOOVXEMHFWVQ  'HJURI SS MS F S SS MS F S 9DULDEOH PVWDW PG\Q ,QWHUFHSW          surface          category*          Error      7RWDO    PVWDW PG\Q ,QWHUFHSW          surface*          category*          Error      7RWDO    P P ,QWHUFHSW          surface*          category*          Error      7RWDO    6LJQLILFDQWLQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQSUHGLFWRUVDQGUXQQLQJGLVWDQFHV

Table 2.

6KDSLUR:LONWHVWUHVXOWVUHJDUGLQJWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKHVXUIDFHDQGDJHFDWHJRU\SUHGLFWRUVRQWKHUXQQLQJWLPHIRUGLIIHUHQW GLVWDQFHVZLWK\RXQJVRFFHUSOD\HUV

9DULDEOH 7HVW 9DOXH F Effect Error S

,QWHUFHSW :LONV      Surface :LONV      Category :LONV      7KHSRVWKRF7XNH\WHVWUHVXOWVIRUSDLUVRIYDULDEOHVFRQILUPHGWKDWWKHW\SHRIVXUIDFHKDGD significant LQIOXHQFHRQWKHUXQQLQJWLPHUHVXOWVIRUWKHPG\QSPSDQGPSUXQV UHJDUGOHVVRIWKHDJHFDWHJRU\7DEOH 7KHQH[WVWHSRIWKHVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVZDVWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUWKHUHJUHVVLRQOLQHVZHUHSDUDOOHO7KHQ $1&29$ ZDV DSSOLHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH LQIOXHQFH RI WKH DJH ERG\ KHLJKW DQG ERG\ ZHLJKW FRYDULDWHV RQ WKH PHDVXUHGUXQQLQJWLPHVIRUWKHJLYHQGLVWDQFHV7KHUHVXOWVVKRZHGWKDWWKHDJHKHLJKWDQGZHLJKWYDULDEOHV KDGQRVLJQLILFDQWLQIOXHQFHRQWKHVXUIDFHSUHGLFWRUIRUDVVHVVLQJLWVLPSDFWRQWKHPVWDWPG\QDQGP VWDWYDULDEOHV+RZHYHUWKHLQIOXHQFHZDVVLJQLILFDQWZKHQFRQVLGHULQJRWKHUYDULDEOHVPG\QPDQGP 7DEOHV $ VLPLODUVLJQLILFDQFHIRUWKHW\SHRIVXUIDFHZDVREVHUYHGLQWKHPUXQZLWKUXQXSEXWRQO\ZKHQWKHDJH DQGKHLJKWRIWKHVXEMHFWZHUHLQFOXGHG0RUHRYHUVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQWKHWLPH UHVXOWVPHDVXUHGGXULQJWULDOVSHUIRUPHGRQQDWXUDODQGUXEEHUVXUIDFHV)LJXUH

Table 3.

+6'7XNH\WHVWUHVXOWVDQGD VXUIDFHSUHGLFWRUIRUSDLUVRIWLPHVPHDVXUHGGXULQJWKHUXQIRUFHUWDLQGLVWDQFHV

7XNH\+6' PVWDW(UURU%HWZHHQ06 GI  PG\Q(UURU%HWZHHQ06 GI 

surface n s r n s r

n    

s    

r    

PVWDW(UURU%HWZHHQ06 GI  PG\Q(UURU%HWZHHQ06 GI 

n*    

s    

r*    

P(UURU%HWZHHQ06 GI  P(UURU%HWZHHQ06 GI 

n*     s     r*     6LJQLILFDQWGLIIHUQFHVEHWZHHQSUHGLFWRUVDQGGLVWDQFHV 1RVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHVXUIDFHZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQWKHUXQQLQJWLPHVIRU PHLWKHUVWDWRUG\Q)LJXUHDQGPVWDW7DEOH

Figure 1.

7LPHUHVXOWVRIWKHPUXQRQGLIIHUHQWVXUIDFHVDVD function of age

:KHQWKHPUXQZDVFRQVLGHUHGWKHVXEMHFW¶VDJHZDVWKHPDLQIDFWRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKH W\SHRIVXUIDFH,QFOXGLQJWKLVYDULDEOHLQWKHFRYDULDQFHDQDO\VLVLQFUHDVHGWKHSUREDELOLW\IRUWKHUXQQLQJWLPH UHVXOWVWRGHSHQGRQWKHW\SHRIVXUIDFH7DEOH $IWHUWKHDJHFDWHJRU\ZDVLQFOXGHGD WZRIROGGHFUHDVHLQWKHSYDOXHIRUWKHW\SHRIVXUIDFHZDVUHYHDOHG 7DEOH7KHUHIRUHWKHGLVWDQFHDQGWKHW\SHRIVXUIDFHVLJQLILFDQWO\LQIOXHQFHGWKHUXQQLQJWLPHUHVXOWVRIWKH VXEMHFWV7KLVIDFWLVFRQILUPHGE\WKHOHVVVWULFW)LVKHUWHVW7DEOHSUHVHQWVWKRVHUHVXOWV

Figure 2.

7LPHUHVXOWVIRUWKHPG\QUXQVRQYDULRXVVXUIDFHVZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHDJHDQGKHLJKWRIWKHVXEMHFWV

Table 4.

+6'7XNH\¶VWHVWUHVXOWVIURPFRPSDULQJSDLUVRIPUXQQLQJWLPHVZLWKWKHVXUIDFHSUHGLFWRUWKDWLQFOXGHGWKHVRFFHUSOD\ HUV¶DJHV

7XNH\+6' No covariate &RYDULDWHPHDQVDJH

surface P(UURU%HWZHHQ06 GI  P(UURU%HWZHHQ06( GI 

n*     s     r*     6LJQLILFDQWGLIIHUQFHVEHWZHHQSUHGLFWRUVDQGPUXQQLQJGLVWDQFH

Table 5.

5HVXOWVYHULI\LQJWKHDVVXPSWLRQRISDUDOOHOUHJUHVVLRQOLQHVIRUVXUIDFHDQGDJHVXUIDFH FDWHJRU\ DJH 9DULDEOH SS 'HJURI MS F S ,QWHUFHSW      Surface*      Category      $JH      6XUIDFH FDWHJRU\      6XUIDFH DJH      &DWHJRU\ DJH      6XUIDFH FDWHJRU\ DJH      Error    6LJQLILFDQWLQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQVXUIDFHDQGDJH )RUWKHPUXQWKHFRYDULDWHVRIDJHERG\KHLJKWDQGZHLJKW)LJXUHKDGDQHYHQJUHDWHULPSDFWRQ ZKHWKHUWKHVXUIDFHLQIOXHQFHGWKHUXQQLQJWLPHWKDQWKH\GLGIRUWKHPUXQ7KHWLPHUHVXOWVREWDLQHGIRUWKH UXQVRQQDWXUDODQGV\QWKHWLFVXUIDFHVZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHUWKDQWKHUHVXOWVREWDLQHGRQWKHUXEEHUVXUIDFH

)LJXUHVKRZVWKHLQIOXHQFHRIERG\KHLJKWERG\ZHLJKWDQGW\SHRIVXUIDFHRQWKHWLPHUHVXOWVIRUWKH PUXQ

Figure 3.

7KHLQIOXHQFHRIWKHUXQQLQJVXUIDFHRQWKHWLPHUHVXOWVIURPWKHPUXQZLWKUHIHUHQFHWRWKHERG\KHLJKWDQGZHLJKWRI VRFFHUSOD\HUV $VLQWKHPUXQUHVXOWVWKHERG\KHLJKWDQGZHLJKWYDULDEOHVVLJQLILFDQWO\LQIOXHQFHGWKHWLPHUHVXOWVRIWKH PUXQ0RUHRYHUWKHVHDQDO\VHVFOHDUO\LQGLFDWHGWKHVLJQLILFDQWLQIOXHQFHRIWKHUXEEHUVXUIDFHRQWKHUXQQLQJ WLPHRIWKHIRRWEDOOSOD\HUV)LJXUH $VLQWKHPUXQUHVXOWVWKHERG\KHLJKWDQGZHLJKWYDULDEOHVVLJQLILFDQWO\LQIOXHQFHGWKHWLPHUHVXOWVRIWKH PUXQ0RUHRYHUWKHVHDQDO\VHVFOHDUO\LQGLFDWHGWKHVLJQLILFDQWLQIOXHQFHRIWKHUXEEHUVXUIDFHRQWKHUXQQLQJ WLPHRIWKHIRRWEDOOSOD\HUV)LJXUH

Figure 4.

7KHLQIOXHQFHRIWKHUXQQLQJVXUIDFHRQWLPHUHVXOWVIRUWKHPUXQZLWKUHIHUHQFHWRWKHERG\KHLJKWDQGZHLJKWRIVRFFHU SOD\HUV

Discussion

7KHDQDO\VHVVKRZHGWKDWWKHWLPHVIRUWKHPUXQZLWKUXQXSDQGWKHPUXQIRUWKHIRRWEDOOSOD\HUVRQ WKHUXEEHUVXUIDFHLQWKHKDOOZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\VKRUWHUWKDQWKRVHRQWKHIRRWEDOOSLWFKZLWKQDWXUDOJUDVV7KHUHVXOWV from the running tests on a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VWXGLHGWKHLQIOXHQFHRIV\QWKHWLFVXUIDFHVRQIRRWEDOOSOD\HUV¶PRWRUSHUFHSWLRQDQGIRXQGWKDW WKLVW\SHRIVXUIDFHZDVWKHSUHIHUUHGVXUIDFHIRUWKHVXEMHFWV7KLVFKRLFHPD\UHVXOWIURPWKHHOLPLQDWLRQRIRUWKH OLPLWLQJRIWKHLQIOXHQFHRIZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVRQWKHWUDLQLQJTXDOLW\6\QWKHWLFVXUIDFHVDOZD\VSURYLGHWKHVDPH KDUGQHVVDQGKHLJKWDQGTXDOLW\RIJUDVVUHJDUGOHVVRIUDLQRUWHPSHUDWXUHORZRUKLJK+RZHYHUWKHVHIDFWRUV VLJQLILFDQWO\FKDQJHWKHWUDLQLQJFRQGLWLRQVRQQDWXUDOJUDVV7KHIHDWXUHVRIWKHODWHVWJHQHUDWLRQRIV\QWKHWLF VXUIDFHVDUHTXDOLWDWLYHO\VLPLODUWRWKRVHRIQDWXUDOJUDVV7KLVVLPLODULW\ZDVFRQILUPHGE\*DLQVHWDOZKR WHVWHGDPDWHXUIRRWEDOOSOD\HUVRQQDWXUDODQGV\QWKHWLFVXUIDFHVDQGFODLPHGWKDWWKH\DUGUXQWLPHUHVXOWV VKRZHGQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHV7KHUHVXOWVRI0XOOHUHWDODQG$QGHUVRQHWDOIURPSURIHVVLRQDO IRRWEDOOSOD\HUVZHUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHDERYH)XUWKHUPRUHWKHVHUHVHDUFKHUVSURYHGWKDWWKHW\SHDQGTXDOLW\RI WKHVROHVRIWKHIRRWZHDUWKDWZDVXVHGKDGWKHJUHDWHVWLQIOXHQFHRQWKHUXQQLQJVSHHGRIWKHSOD\HUV7KHUHVHDUFK RIRWKHUDXWKRUVLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKRXUH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVVXJJHVWLQJWKDWQDWXUDODQGV\QWKHWLFVXUIDFHVSURYLGH FRPSDUDEOHH[SHULHQFHVGXULQJUXQQLQJVSHHGWHVWV7KHUHIRUHWKHWHVWUHVXOWVFDQEHFRPSDUHGDVORQJDVWKH ZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVRUWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHQDWXUDOVXUIDFHRQWKHILHOGGRQRWGLVWRUWWKHWHVWUHVXOWV6WLOHVHWDO *LYHQWKHVHFRQGLWLRQVZK\ZHUHRXUUHVXOWVIRUWKHWHVWVSHUIRUPHGRQWKHUXEEHUVXUIDFHVLJQLILFDQWO\EHWWHU" ,QRXURSLQLRQWKLVLPSURYHPHQWRFFXUUHGEHFDXVHWKHSOD\HUVKDGD lower amount of friction to overcome when SHUIRUPLQJRQD VPRRWKVXUIDFHZLWKQRJUDVV0RUHRYHUWKHKDUGQHVVRIWKHUXEEHUVXUIDFHFDXVHGQR³VLQNLQJ´ LQWRWKHJURXQGHIIHFWZKLFKGLPLQLVKHVWKHHQHUJHWLFFRVWRIWKHHIIRUW7KHLQGRRUVSRUWVKDOODOVRHOLPLQDWHGWKH HIIHFWRIDLUPRYHPHQWDQGRWKHUZHDWKHUIDFWRUV&RQVLGHULQJDOOWKHVHLQWHUIHULQJYDULDEOHVWKHORQJHUGLVWDQFH a SOD\HUFRYHUVWKHPRUHOLNHO\LWLVWKDWWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHW\SHRIUXQQLQJVXUIDFHZLOOEHQRWLFHG,QDGGLWLRQ WKHUXEEHUVXUIDFHGLPLQLVKHVWKHQHJDWLYHHIIHFWVRIFKDQJHDEOHIDFWRUVRQWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHWHVWVDQGWKHUHIRUH LQRXURSLQLRQLVUHFRPPHQGHGIRUFRQWUROWHVWVDQGHVSHFLDOO\IRUORQJLWXGLQDOWHVWV

Conclusion

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2QO\WKH VXUIDFHIDFWRUSOD\HGD FUXFLDOUROHGXULQJWKHSOD\HUV¶WRDQGIURPRYHPHQWVLQGLIIHUHQWGLUHFWLRQV1HYHUWKHOHVV WKHUHLVQRRWKHUUHDVRQIRUUHMHFWLQJWKLVWHVW+RZHYHUWKHWHVWVKRXOGEHSHUIRUPHGLQWKHVDPHPDQQHUDVRWKHU UXQQLQJWULDOVLQD VWUDLJKWOLQHRQWKHVDPHVXUIDFHDQGZHDULQJWKHVDPHW\SHRIIRRWZHDU7KHUXEEHUVXUIDFH DSSHDUVWREHWKHEHVWLQWKLVFDVHHVSHFLDOO\LIWKHWHVWUHVXOWVVHUYHD SUDFWLFDOSXUSRVH±SUHFLVHORDGUHJXODWLRQ %DVHGRQWKLVVWXG\LWFDQEHDVVXPHGWKDWFRPSDULQJWKHUHVXOWVRIUXQQLQJVSHHGWHVWVSHUIRUPHGRQ GLIIHUHQWVXUIDFHVDQGHVSHFLDOO\LQGLIIHUHQWZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVLVXQMXVWLILHG&RPSDULQJUHVXOWVIURPGLIIHUHQW DXWKRUVFDQRQO\SURYLGHTXDOLWDWLYHLQIRUPDWLRQDQGFDQQRWVHUYHDVDQDVVHVVPHQWRIWUDLQLQJHIIHFWV

References

$QGHUVVRQ+(NEORP%.UXVWUXS3(OLWHIRRWEDOODQDUWLILFLDOWXUIYHUVXVQDWXUDOJUDVV0RYHPHQWSDWWHUQVWHFKQLFDOVWDQGDUGVDQG SOD\HULPSUHVVLRQV-RXUQDORI6SRUWV6FLHQFH (NVWUDQG-7LPSND7+DJJOXQG05LVNRILQMXU\LQHOLWHIRRWEDOOSOD\HGRQDUWLILFLDOWXUIYHUVXVQDWXUDOJUDVVD SURVSHFWLYHWZRFRKRUW VWXG\%ULWLVK-RXUQDORI6SRUWVDQG0HGLFLQH± *DLQV*/6ZHGHQKMHOP$10D\KHZ-/%LUG+0+RXVHU--&RPSDULVRQRIVSHHGDQGDJLOLW\SHUIRUPDQFHRIFROOHJHIRRWEDOO SOD\HUVRQILHOGWXUIDQGQDWXUDOJUDVV-RXUQDORI6WUHQJWKDQG&RQGLWLRQLQJ5HVHDUFK± .DWNDW'%XOXW<'HPLU0$NDU6(IIHFWVRIGLIIHUHQWVSRUWVXUIDFHVRQPXVFOHSHUIRUPDQFH%LRORJ\RI6SRUW ± 0OOHU&6WHUOLQJ7/DEJH-0LODQL7/&RPSUHKHQVLYHHYDOXDWLRQRISOD\HUVXUIDFHLQWHUDFWLRQRQDUWLILFLDOVRFFHUWXUI6SRUWV %LRPHFKDQLFV± 0XMLND,6SHQFHU06DQWLVWHEDQ-*RLULHQD--%LVKRS'$JHUHODWHGGLIIHUHQFHVLQUHSHDWHGVSULQWDELOLW\LQKLJKO\WUDLQHG\RXWK IRRWEDOOSOD\HUV-RXUQDORI6SRUWV6FLHQFH± 6SRULV*0LODQRZLü=7UDMNRYLü1-DNVLPRZLü$&RUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQVSHHGDJLOLW\DQGTXLFNQHVV6$4LQHOLWH\RXQJVRFFHU SOD\HUV$FWD.LQHVLRORJLFD± 6WLOHV9+-DPHV,7'L[RQ6-*XLVDVROD,11DWXUDOWXUIVXUIDFHVWKHFDVHIRUFRQWLQXHGUHVHDUFK6SRUWV0HGLFLQH ± <HDGRQ05.DWR7.HUZLQ'*0HDVXULQJUXQQLQJVSHHGXVLQJSKRWRFHOOV-RXUQDORI6SRUWV6FLHQFH± =DQHWWL(0$PDWHXUIRRWEDOOJDPHRQDUWLILFLDOWXUI3OD\HUV¶SHUFHSWLRQV$SSOLHG(UJRQRPLFV±

&LWHWKLVDUWLFOHDV

-DVWU]ĊEVNL=%LFKRZVND05RPSD35DG]LPLĔVNLà'DUJLHZLF]5,QIOXHQFHRIGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIVXUIDFHVRQ WKHUHVXOWVRIUXQQLQJVSHHGWHVWVLQ\RXQJVRFFHUSOD\HUV&HQWU(XU-6SRUW6FL0HG±