The Present and Future Data Situation in EU Countries for INFORUM Modelling

A C T A U N I V E R S I T A T I S L O D Z I E N S I S

____________ FOLIA OECONOMICA 198,2006

J o se f Richter

TH E PRES E NT AND FUTURE DATA SI TUA TIO N

IN EU C O U N T R IE S FOR INFORUM M O D EL LI N G

I. I N T R O D U C T I O N A N I ) B A C K G R O U N D

E m p i r i c a l l y I N F O R U M m o d e l l i n g is b a s e d o n t h e a v a i l a b l e sta tis t ic a l data. E c o n o m i c r e a lity is p e r c e i v e d t h r o u g h th e e y e s o f th e s ta tis t ic a l s y s t e m o f th e c o u n t r y . I n p u t - o u t p u t ( 1 0 ) ta b le s a n d n a tio n a l a c c o u n t s a r e o f p a r t i c u l a r i m p o r ­ ta n ce . T h e a v a il a b i l i t y a n d th e a c c e s s to th is d a t a a r e lim i t i n g f a c t o r s f o r all m o d e l l i n g a c tiv itie s.

Statistical d a t a is not o n ly the b as is for e c o n o m ic s b u t also a l re a d y th e o u t c o m e o f e c o n o m ic s , o f c o m b i n i n g facts and h y p o th e se s. S tatistical d a t a is m a n - m a d e , a lth o u g h “ o n e te n d s to s u p p o s e that national a c c o u n t s j u s t n a tu ra lly a p p e a r e v e ry m o n th like th e n e w m o o n . In fact, they are p e r h a p s th e sin g le g r e a te s t s u c c e s s o f e c o n o m i c s c ie n c e ” ( A l m o n 1998, p. 83).

N a tio n a l a c c o u n t s c a n b e c o n s id e r e d to b e the la n g u a g e o f m a c r o e c o n o m ic s . T h e “ text o f the e c o n o m y ” (see B ro w n 1994) is w ritte n in this la n g u a g e , em pirica l e c o n o m is ts h a v e to in te rpre t this text. O n the o th e r h a n d n atio n al a c c o u n t s are a la n g u a g e n o t very w ell sp o k e n a n d u n d erstood. T h e “ w i d e s p r e a d illiteracy in national a c c o u n t in g a m o n g re se a r c h e rs s h o u ld th e re fo re b e r e g a r d e d a s a th rea t to e c o n o m ic s a s an em p iric a l s c ie n c e ” (B o s 2 0 0 3 , p. 3).

D u rin g the last ten y e a r s national a c c o u n ts (and in p u t-o u tp u t statistics as part o f national a c c o u n ts ) w e r e su b je ct to a n u m b e r o f revisions. T h e r e w e r e m o d if ic a ti o n s in c o n c e p t s a n d c o n v e n tio n s , b u t m o r e im p o r ta n t than tha t - a n d m o r e o r le ss u n n o ­ ticed by m a n y u se rs - a reo rien tatio n o f the s y s te m in th e E u r o p e a n U nion.

In this c o n tri b u tio n a n a t te m p t will b e m a d e to d e s c r ib e th e p r e s e n t statistical e n v i ro n m e n t for I N F O R U M m o d e llin g in th e E u r o p e a n U n io n . In a d d itio n s o m e futu re d e v e l o p m e n t s w h ic h are alre a d y in the p ip e lin e will b e o u tlin ed . H o p e f u lly this in f o rm a tio n w ill b e helpful f o r b oth I N F O R U M m o d e l b u ild e r s in o ld a n d n e w M e m b e r S tate s w h o are n o t fa m ilia r with the actu al t e n d e n c ie s in the E u r o p e a n Statistical S ystem .

T h e c o n t ri b u tio n is b as ed o n the p a p e r d e liv e r e d at th e T w e l f t h W o r l d I N F O ­ R U M C o n f e r e n c e , h e ld in A s c e a , Italy in S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 4 . A s far a s p o s s i b le , t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f n e w d e v e l o p m e n t s w a s i n c o rp o r a t e d . T h e c h a p t e r o n th e r o le o f n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s in t h e E u r o p e a n U n io n w a s a d d e d in o r d e r to p r o v i d e s o m e g e n e r a l b a c k g r o u n d to th e d e t a il s p r e s e n te d . II. T H E R O L E O F N A T I O N A L A C C O U N T S IN T H E E U R O P E A N U N I O N In th e E u r o p e a n U n io n ( E U ) th e c o m p i l a t i o n o f sta tistic a l d a t a is to a h ig h d e g r e e s t a n d a r d i z e d a n d r e g u la te d . S ta tistic s is n o t l o n g e r p r i m a r i l y v i e w e d as a s c ie n tific d i s c i p l i n e in o r d e r to p r o v i d e a w ell o r g a n i z e d p e r c e p t i o n o f reality. S ta tis tic s h a s to p la y a d ir e c t o p e r a t i o n a l role. T h i s s t a t e m e n t h o l d s in p a r t i c u l a r fo r n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s . N a ti o n a l a c c o u n t s r e s u lt s a r e d ire c tly u s e d fo r m a n y a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p u r ­ p o s e s ; th e y p la y a f u n d a m e n t a l role: - f o r th e b u d g e t o f th e C o m m i s s i o n , th e o w n r e s o u r c e s y s t e m , - a s th e b a s i s for the f in a n c ia l c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f t h e m e m b e r s t a te s to th e EU b u d g e t - s e r v e as th e in f o r m a t i o n a l in f r a s tr u c t u r e f o r th e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f th e re ­ g io n a l a n d str u c t u ra l f u n d s - as th e b a s is f o r th e e x c e s s i v e d e f ic it p r o c e d u r e a n d - th e p a c t f o r s ta b ili ty a n d g ro w t h .

N a ti o n a l a c c o u n t s f ig u re s a lso c o n s titu t e th e b a s is for m a n y o f th e s tr u c tu ra l in d ic a t o rs r e q u i r e d b y t h e E u r o p e a n C o u n c il.

N a ti o n a l a c c o u n t s r e s u lts a r e r e l e v a n t f o r c a l c u l a t i n g th e c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f th e m e m b e r S ta te s to t h e EU b u d g e t in tw o resp e cts . G r o s s N a t i o n a l I n c o m e ( p r e v i ­ o u s l y G r o s s N a ti o n a l P r o d u c t) c o n s t i t u t e s th e b a s is fo r a l l o c a t i n g t h e G N I b a s e d s o - c a lle d “ f o u r t h r e s o u r c e ” . B e c a u s e o f th e fin an c ial i m p l i c a t i o n s E U R O S T A T 1 ( a s s i s te d b y th e G N I C o m m i t t e e ) v e r if ie s th e r e li a b ili ty , c o m p a r a b i l i t y a n d e x ­ h a u s t i v e n e s s o f th e d a t a p r o v i d e d b y th e c o u n t r i e s e a c h y e a r . T h e o t h e r s o u r c e is th e V A T b a s e d “ th ir d r e s o u r c e ” . F o r th is p u r p o s e th e V A T r e c e i p t s o f t h e M e m ­ b e r C o u n t r i e s a r e a d j u s t e d u s i n g d e t a il e d n a tio n a l a c c o u n t s r e s u lt s to c o r r e c t for th e fact th a t t h e V A T r u le s d i f fe r b e t w e e n m e m b e r c o u n t r i e s , e s p e c i a l l y a s f a r as c o v e r a g e a n d r a te s b y p r o d u c t s a r e c o n c e r n e d . M e m b e r s ta te s h a v e to p r o v i d e a d e t a il e d V A T d e c l a r a t i o n in c l u d i n g th e c a lc u la t io n o f a d j u s t m e n t f a c to r s b a s e d o n n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s e v e r y y e a r . T h e s e “ d e c l a r a t i o n s ” a r e a l s o c a r e f u l l y c h e c k e d

1 EUROSTAT is the Statistical Office o f the European Comm unities and part o f the European Commission under the Comm issioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs.

by E U R O S T A T . T h e V A T - b a s e d “ th ird r e s o u r c e ” a n d th e G N I - b a s e d “ fo u rth r e s o u r c e ” r e p r e s e n t a b o u t 8 0 % o f t h e EU b u d g e t. T h e e x t r e m e l y s t r o n g e m p h a s i s laid on th e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r o le o f n a tio n a l a c c o u n t s r e s u l t s in th e E U is a n e w e l e m e n t in th e h i s t o r y o f n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s . A c l o s e l y r e la te d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c is th e a c c e n t p u t o n u p - t o - d a t e i n f o r m a t i o n a n d o n s h o r t t e r m d e v e l o p m e n t . 2.1. H is to r ic a l b a c k g r o u n d N a ti o n a l a c c o u n t i n g s ta rt e d m a n y d e c a d e s a g o w i t h q u i t e d is t i n c t a n a ly ti c a l g o a l s in m in d . O n t h e o n e h a n d m e a s u r i n g n a t io n a l i n c o m e a n d / o r to ta l p r o d u c ­ tio n w a s in t h e c e n t r e o f in te rest. T h e s e e a r ly a t t e m p t s a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h n a m e s lik e C l a r k a n d K u z n e t s a l t h o u g h e v e n t h e s e p io n e e r s h a d t h e i r p r e d e c e s s o r s . In 1939 e x p e r t s o f th e L e a g u e o f N a t i o n s r e c o g n i z e d th e n e e d f o r a c e r ta in d e g r e e o f s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n a n d g u i d a n c e in th e m e a s u r e m e n t o f n a t i o n a l in c o m e . A f t e r th e S e c o n d W o r l d W a r t h e r e w a s a d e m a n d for c o m p a r a b l e e s t i m a t e s o f n a t io n a l i n c o m e a l s o f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p u r p o s e s , “ fo r a p p o r t i o n i n g t h e e x p e n s e s o f in te r ­ n a t io n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s ( s e e S N A 1993, p. xx x v ii).

O n the o t h e r h a n d n a tio n a l a c c o u n t s w e r e a d i r e c t r e s u l t o f so c a lle d the “ m a c r o e c o n o m i c r e v o l u t i o n s o f th e i n t e r w a r p e r i o d ” (s e e V a n E ijk 1993). “ T h e e s s e n c e o f n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s is th e e x t e n s i o n o f a s y s t e m o f a c c o u n t s f ro m b e i n g a n i n s t r u m e n t u s e d b y i n d i v i d u a l s , e n t e r p r i s e s o r o t h e r i n s t itu ti o n s to a n i n s t r u ­ m e n t u s e d b y n a t i o n s o r r a t h e r n a tio n a l a u t h o r i t i e s ” ( T i n b e r g e n 1993, p. 13). W h e n b u s i n e s s c y c l e t h e o ry g r e w in i m p o r t a n c e t h e r e w a s t h e n e e d to f o r m u l a t e t h e s e t h e o r i e s b u t a l s o o f sta tistic a l te s tin g o f t h e s e th e o r i e s . S i m i l a r r e s e a r c h w a s u n d e r t a k e n in m a n y d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s lik e t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m ( M e a d e , S to n e ) , N o r w a y ( F r is c h , A u k r u s t ) , th e N e t h e r l a n d s , th e U n i t e d S ta te s a n d o th e rs . T h e a c tiv i tie s c a r r i e d o u t u n d e r th e L e a g u e o f N a t i o n s E c o n o m i c I n t e l l i g e n c e S e r v i c e a n d a s s o c i a t e d w ith th e n a m e s o f V o n H a b e r l e r a n d T i n b e r ­ g e n w e r e o f s p e c ia l r e l e v a n c e a n d tu r n e d o u t to b e h i g h l y i n f lu e n tia l fo r fu tu re s d e v e l o p m e n t s . “ T h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f th e s y s t e m a t i c a p p l i c a t i o n o f m a c r o e c o ­ n o m i c t h e o r y to n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s p e r m i t t e d th e i n te g r a te d sta tis t ic a l t r e a t m e n t o f th e m a i n e c o n o m i c p r o c e s s e s ; m o r e o v e r th e a c c e p t a n c e o f d o u b l e - e n t r y a c ­ c o u n t i n g p r o v i d e d th e m e a n s for i m p l e m e n t i n g th is i n t e g r a t i o n ” ( K e n n e s s y 1993, p. 37). In t h e s e d a y s a n d a l s o u n d e r th e in f lu e n c e o f t h e w o r k s o f K e y n e s n a tio n a l a c c o u n t s e s t a b l i s h e d i t s e l f a s th e f r a m e w o r k fo r m a c r o - e c o n o m i c r e a s o n i n g , as t h e s ta n d a r d l a n g u a g e o f m a c r o - e c o n o m i c s . N a ti o n a l a c c o u n t s b e c a m e th e e m ­ p iric al b a s is fo r m a c r o - e c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s in g e n e r a l a n d m a c r o - e c o n o m i c m o d e l b u i l d i n g in p a rti c u la r.

A f t e r th e S e c o n d W o r l d W a r th e re w a s a s t r o n g t e n d e n c y t o w a r d s h a r m o n i ­ sa tio n a n d c o d i f i c a t io n . I m p o r t m i l e s t o n e o f this d e v e l o p m e n t s w e r e :

United N ations 1947

D ocum ent “ M easurem ent o f N ational Incom e and the C onstruction o f Social A c­ counts” with the appendix “ D efinitions anti m easurem ent o f th e national incom e and related totals” by R ichard Stone

O rganisation for European Econom ic C o-operation (O EEC ) 1950 A Sim plified System o f N ational A ccounts

O rganisation for European Econom ic C o-operation (O EEC ) 1952 A S tandardized System o f N ational A ccounts

The 1953 SNA - U nited N ations 1952

A System o f N ational A ccounts and Supporting Tables

T h e 1953 S N A p r o v i d e d a c l e a r d e f in i tio n o f th e p r o d u c t i o n b o u n d a r y and to o k th e n e e d s o f th e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s into a c c o u n t e x p l ic i tly . At t h e s a m e tim e it r e c o g n i z e d t h a t g u i d e l i n e s on e c o n o m i c a n d fin a n c ia l s ta tis t ic s a n d on n a tio n a l a c c o u n t s s h o u l d be c o n s is te n t.

T he 1968 SNA - United N ations 1968 A System o f N ational A ccounts

„ A n i m p o r t a n t d e v e l o p m e n t b e h i n d th e 1968 S N A w a s th e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f d is a g g r e g a t e d e c o n o m i c m o d e l s a s a n a id to e c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s a n d p o lic y . M o r e de ta il w a s a d d e d to th e a c c o u n t s to r e s p o n d to th e g r o w i n g n e e d s o f e c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s ( S N A 1993, pp. xl, e m p h a s i s a d d e d ) . O n e o f t h e m a j o r e x t e n s i o n s w e r e to d i s a g g r e g a t e th e p r o d u c t i o n a c c o u n t into i n p u t - o u t p u t a c c o u n t s , t h u s m a k i n g L e o n t i e f s in te lle c tu a l a p p r o a c h an i m p o r ta n t a n d in te g ra l e l e m e n t o f n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s ( s e e K e n n e s s y 1993). T h e s tr u c t u r e o f th e s y s t e m w a s p r e s e n t e d in the f o rm o f m a tr ic e s . T h i s s t r o n g e m p h a s i s la id o n th e n e e d s o f e c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s a n d o f 1 0 a n a l y s i s in p a r t i c u l a r w a s h e a v i l y d u e to th e fact, th a t o n e o f th e m a i n a u t h o r s o f th e 1968 S N A , R i c h a r d S t o n e h a d a l r e a d y b e e n in v o l v e d in 1 0 m o d e l l i n g for m a n y y e a r s ( s e e S to n e , B r o w n 1962). T h e 1968 S N A a l s o p r o p o s e d a r a d ic a l b r e a k w i t h th e n o t i o n o f a s i n g l e ­ p r o d u c t in d u s t ry . In d i s t i n g u i s h i n g tw o m a t r i c e s , a m a k e m a tr ix a n d a u s e m a tr ix a g r e a t s t e p f o r w a r d w a s m a d e f ro m a d e s c r i p t i v e p o in t o f v i e w ( s e e S t e e n g e , K o n jin 1993).

The 1993 SNA - E U R O ST A T , IMF, OECD , U nited N ations, W orld Bank (1993) System o f N ational A ccounts 1993

T h e p r e s e n t 1993 S N A a t t e m p t s to r e c o n c i l e v a r i o u s o v e r a l l a c c o u n t i n g s y s ­ t e m s in to o n e c o h e r e n t s y s t e m . M a n y e l e m e n t s w e r e a d d e d , s p e c ia l e m p h a s i s laid o n th e i n t e g r a t i o n o f th e a c c o u n t s d i s p l a y i n g th e lin k s b e t w e e n a n e c o n o m y a n d th e rest o f th e w o r l d . T h e 1993 S N A is e x p l i c i t l y d e s i g n e d as a m u l t i - p u r p o s e s y s t e m . A c c o r d i n g to the I n t r o d u c t i o n ( “ F - U s e s o f t h e S N A ” ) its m a i n o b j e c t i v e s a r e - M o n i t o r i n g th e b e h a v i o u r o f the e c o n o m y . P r o v i d i n g th e e m p ir ic a l b a s is fo r m a c r o e c o n o m i c a n a ly s i s . - A s s i s t i n g e c o n o m i c p o l i c y m a k i n g a n d d e c i s i o n - t a k i n g . - A l l o w i n g i n te r n a tio n a l c o m p a r i s o n s .

- S e r v in g as a c o o r d in a tin g co n c ep tu al fra m e w o r k for the statistical system . P r o v i d i n g th e e m p i r i c a l b a s is for a n a l y s i s a n d m o d e l l i n g is n o t th e o n l y g o a l, b u t it is m e n t i o n e d a s o n e o f t h e p r in c i p a l s p e c if ic u se s: “ N a t i o n a l a c c o u n t s a re u s e d to i n v e s t i g a t th e c a u s a l m e c h a n i s m s w ith in a n e c o n o m y . S u c h a n a l y s i s u s u a lly ta k e s t h e f o r m o f t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f th e p a r a m e t e r s o f f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n ­ s h ip s b e t w e e n d i f f e r e n t e c o n o m i c v a r i a b l e s b y a p p l y i n g e c o n o m e t r i c m e t h o d s to t i m e s e r ie s o f d a t a at b o th c u r r e n t a n d c o n s t a n t p r ic e s c o m p i l e d w i t h i n a n a t io n a l a c c o u n t i n g f r a m e w o r k ” ( S N A 1.33). 2.2. S N A 1993 - T h e E u r o p e a n S y s t e m o f N a t i o n a l A c c o u n t s E S A 95 T h e E S A 9 5 is se e n a s th e E u r o p e a n v e r s io n o f t h e S N A 1993, “ a d a p t e d to th e s t r u c t u r e s o f th e M e m b e r S tate s' e c o n o m i e s , w h i c h m u s t f o llo w th e l a y o u t o f th e S N A so th a t th e C o m m u n i t y ' s d a ta a re c o m p a r a b l e w i t h t h o s e c o m p i l e d b y its m a in in t e r n a t i o n a l p a r t n e r s ” . D e s p i te th is d e f in i tio n g i v e n in th e i n t r o d u c tio n to the E S A R e g u l a t i o n ( “ W h e r e r a s ” (7)) a n d d e s p i t e th e fac t th a t E U R O S T A T w a s a m o n g th e “ a u t h o r s ” o f th e S N A 1993 th e re a r e t w o i m p o r t a n t d if fe r e n c e s .

T h e first distin ctio n refers to the legal n ature o f the d o c u m e n ts . T h e S N A 93 has th e c h a r a c te r o f a r e c o m m e n d a tio n . T h e E S A 95 on the o th e r h a n d is a R e g u l a t i o n ( C o u n c i l R e g u l a t i o n ( E C ) N o 2 2 2 3 / 9 6 o f 25 J u n e 1996) a n d th e r e f o r e le g a lly b i n d i n g in all M e m b e r S ta te s o f th e EU. T h is s p e c if ic legal n a t u r e h a s s e v e r e i m p l i c a t i o n s fo r th e r o le o f n a t io n a l a c c o u n t a n ts . “ C o m p i l a t i o n o f n a t io n a l a c ­ c o u n t s is e s s e n t i a l l y e x e c u t i o n o f a law, s u b j e c t to a u d i t a n d b u r d e n e d b y far- r e a c h i n g e c o n o m i c a n d fin a n c ia l c o n s e q u e n c e s ” ( F r a n z 1 9 9 7 , p. 54). N a ti o n a l a c c o u n t i n g is n o t l o n g e r s e e n a s part o f e c o n o m i c s c i e n c e , “ th e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f le gal n o r m s m a y b e c o m e a t a r g e t p r e d o m i n a t i n g o v e r s c i e n t i f i c i n t e r p r e ta t io n , c a n o n i s t i c u n d e r s t a n d i n g is p r o m o t e d , t h i n k i n g in a l t e r n a t i v e s is d is c o u r a g e d , c a s u is t ic t e n d e n c i e s m a y c r e e p in a s to s o l v e b o r d e r l i n e c a s e s ” ( F r a n z 1997, p. 56)

T h e s e c o n d m a j o r d i f f e r e n c e - c l o s e l y r e la te d a n d th e r a t i o n a l e b e h i n d th e first o n e - c a n b e s e e n in th e g e n e r a l o r ie n t a t i o n o f th e s y s t e m . T h e E S A 95 is no t s e e n a s a m u l t i - p u r p o s e s y s t e m . T h e r e is a c l e a r h i e r a r c h y o f o b j e c t i v e s tha t h a v e to b e m e t, th e n e e d s o f e c o n o m i c a n a ly s i s a r e r e c o g n i z e d in t h e s y s t e m but d o n o t s h o w u p a m o n g th e h i g h r a n k i n g p r io ritie s . T h e b a s i c c o n s i d e r a t i o n s b e ­ h in d th e E S A 95 a r e s p e lle d o u t in t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h e C o u n c i l R e g u la tio n , th e s o - c a l l e d “ W h e r e a s e s ” . T h e r o le o f E S A 95 in th e c o n t e x t o f m a n a g i n g th e E U a n d c a r r y i n g o u t th e b u s i n e s s o f t h e C o m m i s s i o n is a d d r e s s e d e x p l ic i tly m a n y tim e s . H e r e a r e s o m e q u o t a t i o n s ( m a n y o f t h e m a b r i d g e d ) to illu str a te th is u n a m b i g u o u s o r ie n t a tio n . S t r o n g e m p h a s i s is p u t o n i n te r n a tio n a l c o m p a r a b i l i t y :

The im plem entation and supervision o f Econom ic and M onetary U nion require com parable, up-to-date and reliable inform ation (W hereas ( I ))

T he system set up by this R egulation is gradually to replace all other system s as a reference fram ew ork o f com m on standards, definitions, classifications and ac­ counting rules for draw ing up the accounts o f the M em ber States for the require­ m ents o f the C om m unity, so that results that are comparable between the M em ber States can be obtained; (W hereas ( 12)), em phasis added.

T he creation o f com m on statistical standards so that com p arab le information can be produced is a task that can only be dealt w ith effectively at C om m u nity level (W hereas (18)), em phasis added.

A t t h e s a m e t i m e E S A 95 a i m s at fu lly c o m p a r a b l e r e s u lt s b u t a l m o s t c o m ­ p le te l y i g n o r e s th e f u n d a m e n t a l d i f f e r e n c e s in th e s u b s t r u c t u r e o f th e sta tistic a l d a t a b a s e ( s e e F r a n z 1997).

T h e C o m m i s s i o n o f t h e E U a n d o t h e r E u r o p e a n b o d i e s s u c h a s th e C o u n c il a n d th e E u r o p e a n C e n tr a l B a n k a re v ie w e d a s th e k e y u s e r o f th e d ata. T h e s c i ­ e n tif ic w o r l d a n d th e p u b lic in g e n e r a l a r e n o t m e n t i o n e d a m o n g th e p o te n tia l b e n e f i c i a r i e s o f n a t i o n a l a c c o u n t s :

The C om m ission m ust play a part in the adm inistration o f E conom ic and M one­ tary Union and, in particular, report to the Council on the progress m ade by the M em ber States in fulfilling their obligations for the achievem ent o f Econom ic and M onetary U nion; (W hereas (2)).

T he C om m ission m ust use aggregates o f national accounts for C om m unity ad­ ministrative and, in particular, budgetary calculations (W hereas (4)), em phasis added.

B e c a u s e o f th e r o le for b u d g e t a r y c a l c u l a t i o n s a d a p t a t i o n p r o c e d u r e s b y A d ­ v is o ry C o m m i t t e e s s u c h as S tatistic a l P r o g r a m m e C o m m i t t e e o f th e E u r o p e a n C o m m u n i t y ( S P C ) a r e l im ite d to a m e n d m e n t s w h i c h h a v e n o f in a n c ia l im p l i c a ­ tions. T h e s t a n d a r d c o n c e r n in all th e d e b a t e s a m o n g n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s e x p e r t s

o n th e E u r o p e a n le vel o n m e t h o d o l o g i c a l is s u e s t h e r e f o r e is “ d o e s it in f l u e n c e G D P o r n o t ? ”

T h e r e s u lt s o f n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s a r e u s e d a s p a r a m e t e r s fo r p o litic a l d e c i ­ s io n s ( e x c e s s i v e d e f ic it p r o c e d u r e , c o n t r o l o f b u d g e t a r y d is c i p l i n e ) th e fig u re s r e s u lt in H ow s o f b ig s u m s o f m o n e y a n d h a v e a u t o m a t i c c o n s e q u e n c e s . C o n s e ­ q u e n t l y , n o r o o m is g r a n t e d f o r f lex ib ility , c r it iq u e , sc ie n t ifi c d i s c u s s i o n o r a l t e r ­ n a t iv e c o n c e p t s .

E conom ic accounts are a basic tool for analysing th e econom ic situation o f a country and/or region on condition that they are draw n up on th e basis o f a single set o f principles that arc not open to differing interpretations (W hereas (3), em ­ phasis added).

In th e lig h t o f th e o p e r a t i o n a l i m p o r t a n c e o f n a t i o n a l a c c o u n t s f ig u r e s r e v i ­ s io n s in n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s m a y a ttr a c t b ig a n d u n d u e a t t e n t i o n b y t h e g e n e r a l p u b lic (s. F r a n z 1997). N a ti o n a l a c c o u n t a n t s m a y b e t e m p t e d n o t to m a k e s u c h r e v i s i o n s e v e n i f th e y feel th a t s u c h r e v is i o n s m i g h t b e n e c e s s a r y f r o m a p u r e ly sta tistic a l v i e w p o i n t . O t h e r u s e r s th e n w ill h a v e to rely o n f i g u r e s w h i c h a r e n o t t h e b e s t p o s s i b l e e s tim a te s .

T o h a v e a c l e a r t i m e t a b l e is e s s e n tia l for a n y g o o d a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e the d a t a n e c e s s a r y for o p e r a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s has to b e d e l i v e r e d at f ix e d d a te s .

The inform ation essential to the requirem ents o f the C om m unity m ust be proc­ essed and com m unicated to the C om m ission on precise dates (W hereas ( 15)).

T h e fact tha t c e r t a i n p r o b l e m s c a n o n ly b e s o l v e d b y a c o n v e n t i o n , w h i c h is j u s t o n e o u t o f a n u m b e r o f m o r e o r le ss m e a n i n g f u l c o m p e t i n g c o n c e p t s , is not

r e c o g n iz e d .

A decision on how financial interm ediation services indirectly m easured (Fisim ) arc to be broken dow n should be taken at a later date; (W hereas (17)).

T h e p r o b l e m o f h o w to tr e a t F is im w a s “ s o l v e d ” b y th e C o m m i s s i o n R e g u l a ­ tio n ( E C ) N o 1 8 8 9 / 2 0 0 2 o f 23 O c t o b e r 2 0 0 2 . A c c o r d i n g to W h e r e a s (2) o f this R e g u l a t i o n te s ts in s o m e c o u n t r i e s s h o w e d th a t “ t h e a l l o c a t i o n y i e l d e d m o r e r e li a b le r e s u lt s th a n th e p r e s e n t z e r o a l lo c a tio n f o r th e c o r r e c t m e a s u r e m e n t o f th e e c o n o m i c a c tiv i ty c o n c e r n e d ” . F o r w h a t d o t h e n o t i o n s “ r e li a b l e ” a n d “ m o r e r e li a b l e ” s t a n d in th e c o n t e x t o f a p h e n o m e n o n w h i c h is n o t o b s e r v a b l e at all? T h i s q u e s t i o n r e m a i n s u n a n ­ s w e r e d d e s p i t e th e e x i s t e n c e o f a R e g u la tio n . N o d o u b t , i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p a r a ­ bility c a n b e in c r e a s e d b y s u c h a R e g u la tio n . T h e t e r m s “ r e l i a b i l i t y ” a n d “ c o r ­ r e c t” , h o w e v e r , a r e m i s l e a d i n g in th is c o n te x t.

A c c o r d i n g to th e E S A 9 5 R e g u la tio n all c o u n t r i e s h a v e to p r o d u c e n a tio n a l a c c o u n t s fig u re s b a s e d o n the E S A 95 m e t h o d o l o g y . O n t h e o t h e r h a n d “ this R e g u l a t i o n d o e s n o t o b l i g e a n y M e m b e r S t a t e to u se t h e E S A 95 in c o m p i l i n g a c c o u n t s fo r its o w n p u r p o s e s ” ( E S A 95 A rt 3). L ittle u s e is m a d e o f th is f r e e d o m . B u d g e t r e s tr ic tio n s a n d t h e f e a r o f a p u b ­ lic d e b a t e o v e r c o m p e t i n g r e s u lt s c a n b e m a d e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r th is d e p l o r a b l e s ta tistica l m o n o c u l t u r e in E u ro p e . III. T H E P R E S E N T D A T A S I T U A T I O N IN E U C O U N T R I E S F O R I N F O R U M M O D E L L I N G 3 .1 . KSA 9 5 a n d IO s t a ti s ti c s S i n c e t h e c o m p i l a t i o n o f sta tistic a l d a t a in th e E U is to a h ig h d e g r e e s t a n ­ d a r d i z e d a n d r e g u l a t e d th e p r o v i s i o n s o f the E S A 95 R e g u l a t i o n a r e o f p a r a ­ m o u n t i m p o r t a n c e fo r th e sta tistic a l e n v i r o n m e n t for I N F O R U M m o d e l l i n g in th e E U M e m b e r s C o u n t r i e s . F o r t u n a t e l y e n o u g h IO s ta tis t ic s is s e e n as a n e s s e n ­ tial p a r t o f th e s y s t e m a n d a n e n t ir e c h a p t e r ( C h a p t e r 9 ) is d e v o t e d to th e 10 f ra m e w o r k .

T h e m o s t r e l e v a n t p a r a g r a p h s o f th e E S A 95 R e g u l a t i o n ( e x c e r p t s a n d a b r i d g e d ) are:

1.02. The ESA fram ew ork consists o f tw o main sets o f tables:

(a) the sector accounts (1); (h) the input-output fram ew ork (2) and the accounts by industry (3).

The input-output fram ew ork and the accounts by industry describe in m ore de­ tail the production process (cost structure, incom e generated and em ploym ent) and the flow s o f goods and services (output, im ports, exports, final consum ption, inter­ m ediate consum ption and capital form ation by product group).

T he ESA encom passes concepts o f population and em ploym ent (4). T hese co n ­ cepts are relevant fo r both the sector accounts and the input-output fram ew ork.

T h e 1 0 f r a m e w o r k is v i e w e d as a n in te g ral p a rt o f th e a c c o u n t s a n d n o t as a k in d o f a n n e x , a s a te l lite o f th e s y s t e m . C o n s i s t e n c y b e t w e e n th e 1 0 f r a m e w o r k a n d the rest o f t h e s y s t e m b o t h c o n c e p t u a l l y a n d n u m e r i c a l l y is a b ig a d v a n t a g e for I N F O R U M m o d e l l i n g .

C h a p t e r 9 o f t h e R e g u l a t i o n m a k e s a c l e a r d is t in c t io n b e t w e e n th e d e s c r i p ­ tiv e s id e o f 1 0 s t a tis t ic s a n d th e a n a ly tic a l use.

9.01. T he input-output fram ew ork consists o f three types o f tables: (a) supply and use tables; (b) tables linking the supply and use tables to the sector accounts; (c) sym m etric input-output tables.

9.10. T he form at o f th e supply and use tables is designed to fit in w ith this type o f statistical inform ation (i.e. industry by product). By contrast, inform ation o f a product by product o r industry by industry nature as required by the sym m etric in- put-output table is not often available. T he industry by product inform ation in the supply and use tables can be converted into product by product o r industry by indus­ try statistics by adding extra statistical inform ation on the input structures o r by as­ sum ing constant input structures by product or by industry (see paragraphs 9 .5 4 - 9.60).

T h e lin k b e t w e e n th e 1 0 f r a m e w o r k a n d th e rest o f t h e s y s t e m is p r o v i d e d by th e s u p p l y a n d u s e ta b les .

9.06. S upply and use tables are the central fram ew ork for all tables by industry, e.g. those on em ploym ent, gross fixed capital form ation and capital stock.

9.07. T he supply and use tables contain all the (low s in the follow ing accounts: (a) the goods and services account; (b) th e production account; (c) the generation o f incom e account.

9.52. T he inform ation in the supply and use tables should be linked to the sector accounts, to ensure that the supply and use table is co nsistent with the sector ac­ counts. T his is achieved by introducing a table w ith variables cross-classified by in­ dustry and by sector

E S A 9 5 a c k n o w l e d g e s e x p l ic i tly th a t s u p p l y a n d u s e t a b l e s s e r v e b o th s t a t i s ­ tical a n d a n a ly ti c a l p u r p o s e s . A m o n g th e s ta tistica l u s e s s p e c ia l r e f e r e n c e is m a d e to:

9 .1 1, (a) identifying gaps and inconsistencies in basic data sources; (b) w eighting and calculation o f index num bers and price and volum e m easures; (c) m aking esti­ m ates by residual (estim ating a variable by first estim ating all o ther variables in the identity), e.g. for the production or final consum ption o f specific products; (d) checking and im proving the consistency, plausibility and com pleteness o f fig­ ures in the supply and use tables and the derived figures (such as those in the pro­ duction accounts). To this end, the balancing process should not be lim ited to the supply and use tables at current prices.

T h e s e c o n d sta tistic a l p u r p o s e m a d e th e c o m p i l a t i o n o f s u p p l y a n d u s e ta b le s v ital f o r th e o p e r a t i o n a l r o le o f n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s . T h e C o m m i s s i o n D e c i s i o n ( 2 0 0 2 ) o n th e p r i n c i p l e s fo r m e a s u r i n g p r i c e s a n d v o l u m e s in n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s d e c i d e d th a t th e c a l c u l a t i o n o f v o l u m e s at c o n s t a n t p r i c e s s h o u l d rely on a L a s p e y r e s c o n c e p t o f v o l u m e m e a s u r e m e n t b a s e d o n th e p r i c e s o f t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r . T h i s d e c i s i o n c a lls for u p - t o - d a t e a n d a n n u a l s u p p l y a n d u s e t a b le s a n d w a s m o t i v a t e d b y th e fact tha t th e g r o w t h rate o f G D P at c o n s t a n t p r i c e s h a s to p la y a n i m p o r t a n t ro le in th e e v a l u a t i o n o f th e e x c e s s i v e d e f ic it in M e m b e r S tate s. T h e r e f o r e th e c a l c u l a t i o n s h o u l d b e b a s e d o n a n u p - t o - d a t e w e i g h t i n g s c h e m e .

T h e d e r o g a t i o n f o r th e d e l i v e r y o f c o n s t a n t p r ic e c a l c u l a t i o n s b a s e d o n t h e p r ic e s o f th e p r e v i o u s y e a r e n d s in 2 0 0 5 . T h e i m p l i c a t i o n s fo r I N F O R U M m o d e l l i n g a r e t w o f o l d . O n th e o n e h a n d th e r e is a lot o f p r e s s u r e o n th e S tatistic al O f f i c e s to p r o d u c e a n n u a l u se - a n d s u p p l y t a b le s in g o o d q u a lity , f l i e s e ta b le s w ill b e p r o d u c e d in c u r r e n t a n d c o n ­ sta n t p r i c e s ( p r i c e s o f th e p r e v i o u s y ea r). W i th in a fe w y e a r s I N F O R U M m o d e l b u i l d e r s w ill h a v e ( h o p e f u l l y ) n i c e t im e s e rie s o f c o n s i s t e n t s u p p l y a n d u se ta ­ b le s at t h e i r d i s p o s i t i o n . O n th e o t h e r h a n d th e y will b e fa c e d w ith th e p r o b l e m o f n o n - a d d i t i v i t y o f all th e i r c o n s t a n t p r ic e d a t a e x c e p t for th e p r e v i o u s yea r. “ T h is lack o f a d d itiv ity c o n s is te n c y c a n b e a se rio u s d is a d v a n t a g e for m a n y types o f a n a ly s i s in w h ic h the inte rre latio n sh ip s b e t w e e n v a r io u s f lo w s in the e c o n o m y a r e the m a in f ocus o f interest. M o s t m a c r o e c o n o m i c m o d e l s fall w ith in this c a te ­ g o r y ” ( S N A 1993, 16.75).

F o r ana lytica l p u r p o s e s the E S A 95 a s k s for th e c a lc u la tio n o f p ro d u ct-to - p r o d u c t ta bles a s th e m o s t im p o rta n t varia nt o f w h a t is c a lle d " s y m m e t r i c ta b le s ” . T h e f o llo w in g th ree ste p s o f c o n v e r tin g the s u p p ly and u se ta b le s to o n e “ s y m m e t ­ ric ta b le” are r e c o m m e n d e d :

9.54. (a) allocation o f secondary products in the supply table to the industries o f w hich they are the principal products; (b) rearrangem ent o f the colum ns o f the use table from inputs into industries to inputs into hom ogeneous branches (w ithout ag­ gregation o f the row s); (c) aggregation o f the detailed products (row s) o f the new use table to the hom ogeneous branches show n in the colum ns, i f appropriate.

9.55. Step (a) involves transfers o f outputs in the form o f secondary products in the supply table. Since secondary products appear as 'o ff-diagonal' entries in the supply table, this kind o f transfer is a com paratively sim ple m atter. T hese secondary products are treated as additions into the industries for w hich they are principal and rem oved from the industries in w hich they w ere produced.

9.56. Step (b) is m ore com plicated, as the basic data on inputs relate to indus­ tries and not to each individual product produced by each industry. T he kind o f con­ version to be m ade here entails the transfer o f inputs associated w ith secondary out­ puts from the industry in w hich that secondary output has been produced to the in­ dustry to w hich they principally (characteristically) belong. In m aking this transfer, tw o different approaches m ight be taken: 1. by m eans o f supplem entary statistical and technical inform ation; 2. by m eans o f assum ptions.

In th is p r o c e s s o f t r a n s f o r m i n g th e d e s c r i p t i v e s y s t e m in to a n a n a ly ti c a l v e r ­ s io n s u p p l e m e n t a r y sta tistic a l a n d t e c h n ic a l i n f o r m a t i o n s h o u l d b e u tiliz e d as m u c h a s p o s s i b le . U ltim a tely it w ill u su a lly be n e ce ssa ry to re so rt to s im p le a s­ su m p tio n s to m a k e the tra n sfers (9,47).

3.2 . T r a n s m i s s i o n o f r e su lts

E u r o p e a n le g is la tio n d o e s n o t o n ly cieftne all th e s t a n d a r d s a n d c o n c e p t s in v e ry g r e a t d e t a il , it a l s o r e g u l a t e s w h i c h d a t a in w h i c h c l a s s i f i c a t i o n h a s to b e d e l i v e r e d to E U R O S T A T at w h i c h d ate. T h e a d v a n t a g e o f t h is s it u a t i o n for the u s e r is, th a t h e k n o w s w ell in a d v a n c e w h ic h d a t a o f w h i c h k in d h e c a n e x p e c t. T h e R e g u l a t i o n ( E C ) N o 1 2 6 7 /2 0 0 3 o f th e E u r o p e a n P a r l i a m e n t a n d o f th e C o u n c i l g o v e r n i n g th e t i m e s c h e d u l e for th e t r a n s m i s s i o n o f n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s d a ta c o m p r i s e s 2 2 p a g e s , 17 o f th e m a r e d e v o t e d to d e r o g a t i o n s . A s m i g h t b e s e e n f r o m t h e first p a g e o f t h e A n n e x 1 d i s p l a y e d in T a b l e 1 s u p p l y t a b le s at p r o d u c e r p r ic e s a n d u s e ta b le s at p u r c h a s e r s ’ p r ic e s h a v e to b e p r o d u c e d a n n u ­ ally , “ s y m m e t r i c t a b l e s ” a n d c r o s s c l a s s i f i c a t io n s o f p r o d u c t i o n a c c o u n t b y in­ d u s t r y a n d b y s e c t o r f iv e y e a r ly . A l m o s t all th e n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s a g g r e g a t e s h a v e to b e p r o v i d e d at c u r r e n t a n d c o n s t a n t p r ic e s , th is p r o v i s i o n a l s o a p p l i e s to t h e a n n u a l t r a n s m i s s i o n o f s u p p l y a n d u s e ta bles. T a b l e I REGULATION (EC) No 1267/2003 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIA M ENT AND OF THE CO U N CIL 0 I I6

June 2003

amending Council Regulation (EC) No 2 223/% with respect to the tim e limit for transm ission o f the main aggregates o f national accounts, to the derogations concerning the transm ission o f the main aggregates o f national accounts and to the transm ission o f employment data in hours worked

(Text with EEA relevance) ANNEX 1

Am endm ents to the table “ Overview o f (he tables’ o f Annex В - Transm ission Program m e o f National Ac­ counts Data - o f Regulation (EC) No 2 223/% (ESA 95)

TRA N SM ISSIO N PROGRAM M E OF NATIONAL A CCOUNTS DATA

Overview o f llie tables

First trans­ mission Delay t »month (days where specified) Transm ission

for years Sub ject o f the tables

Table No

1 2 3 4 5

2002 70 days 1995-2001 Mam aggregates, annual 1

2002 70 days 1995-2001 Main aggregates, quarterly I

1999 8 1995-1998 Main aggregates general governm ent

2001 3 1997-2000 Main aggregates general governm ent 2

2000 9 1995-1999 Tables by industry 3

2000 9 1995-1999 Exports and imports by EU/third countries A

2000 9 1995-1999 Household final consum ption expenditure by pur­ pose

5

2000 9 1995-1999 Financial accounts by sector (transactions) 6

2000 9 1995-1999 Balance sheets for financial assets and liabilities 7

Table I (continued)

1 2 3 4 5

2000 12 1995-1999 Detailed tax receipts by sector 9

2000 24 1995-1998 Tables by industry and by region, NUTS II, A I7 10

2001 12 1995-2000 General governm ent expenditure by function 11

2001 24 1995-1999 Tables by industry and by region, NUTS 111, A3 12

2001 24 1995-1999 Household accounts by region, NUTS II 13

2001 24 1995 1999 Fixed assets for total econom y and by product (I’i3) 14 2002 3ft 1995-1999 Supply table at basic prices including transform ation

in to purchasers’ prices, A 60xP60

15

2002 36 1995-1999 Use table at purchasers’ prices, A 60xP60 16

2002 36 I995(*) Symmetrie input-output table at basic prices, AbOxPftO, five yearly

17 2002 3ft 1995(*) Symmetric input-output table for dom estic output at

basic prices, AftOxPftO, five yearly

18 2002 3

ft

prices A6()xPft0, five yearly

19

2003 3ft 2000 G ross classification o f gross fixed capital formation by industry and by product. A 3lxP ft0, five yearly

20 2003 3ft 2000 G ross classification o f production account by indus­

try and by sector, Aft0x(Sl 1, S12, S13, S I4 , S15). five yearly

21

2003 3ft 2000 G ross classification o f gross fixed capital formation by industry and by product, A3I xPftO, five yearly

22

see table see table see table Backward calculations 23

t: reference period (year or quarter).

(*) The live yearly tabic for the year 2000 has to be delivered in 2003.

3 .3 . E u r o p e a n c l a s s if ic a tio n s y s t e m s A t p r e s e n t th e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by a c tiv itie s a n d b y c o m m o d i t i e s is s ta n d a r d i z e d b y th e f o l l o w i n g tw o R e g u la tio n s : C o m m i s s i o n R e g u la tio n ( E C ) N o 2 9 /2 0 0 2 o f 19 D e c e m b e r 2001 a m e n d i n g C o u n c i l R e g u l a t i o n ( E E C ) N o 3 0 3 7 / 9 0 o n th e s ta tistica l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f e c o ­ n o m i c a c tiv i tie s in th e E u r o p e a n C o m m u n i t y . C o m m i s s i o n R e g u l a t i o n ( E C ) N o 2 0 4 / 2 0 0 2 o f 19 D e c e m b e r 20 0 1 a m e n d i n g C o u n c i l R e g u l a t i o n ( E E C ) N o 3 6 9 6 /9 3 o n the sta tistic a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f p r o d ­ u c t s b y a c tiv i ty ( C P A ) in th e E u r o p e a n E c o n o m i c C o m m u n i t y .

B o th s y s t e m s a r e w ell in te g r a te d in the i n te r n a tio n a l ( U N ) s y s t e m o f c l a s s i ­ fic a tio n s, b o th c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s a re m u l t i - p u r p o s e i n s t r u m e n ts . T h e y p a y little a t ­ te n tio n to th e s p e c i f i c n e e d s o f n a tio n a l a c c o u n t s in g e n e r a l a n d IO a n a l y s i s in p a r tic u la r.

A s m a y b e s e e n f ro m th e T r a n s m i s s i o n P r o g r a m m e th e s t a n d a r d fo r n a tio n a l a c c o u n t s d a t a a n d 1 0 d a t a is t h e A ( a c tiv ity ) 6 0 a n d P ( p r o d u c t ) 60 le v el o f d i s ­

a g g r e g a t i o n , c o r r e s p o n d i n g to th e tw o d ig it level o f th e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s y s t e m s . T h e f o l l o w i n g T a b l e p r o v i d e s an o v e r v i e w o f th e s t a n d a r d d i s a g g r e g a t i o n by p r o d u c t g r o u p s .

T h e European Standard Classification of IO Data

СРЛ PR O D U C TS

01 Products o f agriculture

02 Products o f forestry

05 F ishes and products o f fishes 10 C oal and lignite; peat

11 C rude petroleum , natural gas

12 U ranium and thorium ores

13 Metal ores

14 O ther m ining and quarrying products

15 Food products and beverages

16 T obacco products

17 T extiles

18 W earing apparel; furs

19 L eather and leather products

20 W ood and products o f wood

21 Pulp, pap er and paper products

22 P rinted m atter and recorded m edia 23 C oke, refined petroleum products

24 C hem icals, chem ical products

25 R ubber and plastic products

26 O ther non-m etallic mineral products

27 Basic m etals

28 Fabricated metal products

29 M achinery and equipm ent n.e.c.

30 O ffice m achinery and com puters 31 E lectrical m achinery and apparatus

32 R adio, TV and com m unication equipm ent

33 M ed., precision, opt. instrum ents; w atches, clocks 34 M otor vehicles, trailers and sem i-trailers

35 O ther transport equipm ent

36 Furniture; other m anufactured goods n.e.c.

37 R ecovered secondary raw m aterials

40 Electrical energy, gas, steam and hot w ater 41 W ater; distribution services o f w ater

45 C onstruction work

50 T rade and repair services o f m otor vehicles etc. 51 W holesale and com m , trade serv., ex. o f m otor vehicles 52 Retail trade serv., repair serv., except o f m otor vehicles

60 Land transport and transport via pipeline services

61 W ater transport services

62 A ir transport services

63 Supporting transport services; travel agency services 64 Post and telecom m unication services

65 Financial interm ediation services (ex. insurance serv.)

66 Insurance and pension funding services

67 Services auxiliary to financial interm ediation

70 Real estate services

71 R enting services o f m achinery and equipm ent

72 C o m puter and related services

73 Research and developm ent services

74 O ther business services

75 Public adm inistration services etc.

80 Education services

85 H ealth and social w ork services

90 Sew age and refuse disposal services etc.

91 M em bership organisation services n.e.c.

92 Recreational, cultural and sporting services

93 O ther services

95 Private households with em ployed persons

IV . T H E N E A R F U T U R E 4 .1 . T h e IO M a n u a l E U R O S T A T is p r e p a r i n g th e p u b l i c a t i o n o f a n IO M a n u a l. S t a r t i n g from E S A 9 5 c o n c e p t s th e M a n u a l f o c u s e s o n c o m p i l a t i o n is s u e s in g r e a t e r de ta il. Its m a i n p u r p o s e is to p r o v i d e “ b e s t p r a c t i c e s ” a n d h a r m o n i s e d s o l u t i o n s a n d to h e lp m e m b e r s ta te s a s w e ll a s o t h e r c o u n t r i e s in th e p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s o f t h e ta bles. A l t h o u g h it is n o t p u b l i s h e d yet, th e v e r y d e t a il e d M a n u a l ( E U R O S T A T 2 0 0 3 , m o r e th a n 3 0 0 p a g e s ) is a l r e a d y u s e d a s a g u i d e l i n e fo r th e c o m p i l a t i o n in m a n y c o u n t ri e s . C h a p t e r 11 o n th e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f s u p p ly a n d u s e t a b l e s to “ s y m m e t r i c 1 0 t a b l e s ” d e s e r v e s sp e c ia l a t te n t io n . It e v a l u a t e s th e v a r i o u s a s s u m p t i o n s a n d d i s ­ c u s s e s t h e p r o b l e m o f n e g a t i v e s in s o m e d etail. In th e s u b - c h a p t e r o n th e c a l c u l a ­ tio n o f th e “ s y m m e t r i c IO t a b l e ” o n th e b a s is o f th e c o m m o d i t y a s s u m p t i o n A l- m o n ' s p u r i f i c a t i o n m e t h o d ( A l m o n 2 0 0 0 ) is m e n t i o n e d , d is c u s s e d - a n d to s o m e d e g r e e - a l s o r e c o m m e n d e d a s o n e o f tw o m a i n a p p r o a c h e s . T h e a l t e r n a t i v e m e t h o d c a lle d “ m a tr ix m u l t i p l i c a t i o n ” s ta r t s w ith th e s t a n ­ d a r d m o d e l o n t h e b a s is o f th e c o m m o d i t y t e c h n o l o g y a s s u m p t i o n . In a n o n ­ f o rm a liz e d ite r a tiv e p r o c e d u r e a l o n g the lin e s d e s c r i b e d in 9 . 5 4 o f th e E S A 95 e r r o r s in d a t a s h o u l d b e e l i m i n a t e d a n d r e a r r a n g e m e n t o f d a t a is p r o p o s e d in

o r d e r to r e d u c e th e n u m b e r o f n e g a t i v e s in th e s o lu t io n . T h e r e m a i n i n g n e g a t i v e s a r e set to z e r o a n d R A S is u s e d to m a k e s u r e th a t th e t a b l e m a t c h e s t h e to tals. I n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e c h o i c e o f the m e t h o d , th e M a n u a l p r o p o s e s to c a l c u l a t e a d i f f e r e n c e m a tr ix , so: U s e t a b le = 1 0 c o e f f i c i e n t s m a tr ix * S u p p l y ta b le + D i f f e r e n c e M a tr i x In o n e i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t th e b a s ic p h i l o s o p h y o f th e 1 0 M a n u a l d if fe r s s o m e w h a t f r o m th e te x t o f th e E S A 95. W h e r e a s it f o l l o w s f r o m P a r a g r a p h s 9 .5 4 th a t the “ s y m m e t r i c t a b l e s ” a r e n o t l o n g e r c o n s i s t e n t w ith th e s u p p l y - u se f r a m e w o r k , th e M a n u a l m a k e s a s t r o n g ple a fo r c o n s i s t e n c y ( o r a t le ast fo r a w ell d e s c r i b e d a n d d o c u m e n t e d d i f f e r e n c e ) b e t w e e n th e “ s y m m e t r i c t a b l e s ” a n d the b a s ic s u p p l y a n d u s e tables.

In a c k n o w l e d g i n g th e t r a d e - o f f b e t w e e n c o m p a r a b i l i t y in c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s a n d v a l u e s o n th e o n e h a n d a n d " q u a l i t y ” o f th e “ s y m m e t r i c t a b l e ” o n th e o t h e r h a n d “ a b a l a n c e c o u l d p e r h a p s b e f o u n d in r e q u i r i n g c o m p a r a b i l i t y o n l y at th e le vel o f a g g r e g a t i o n at w h i c h ta b le s a r e p u b l i s h e d (e.g. t h e le vel o f 6 0 p r o d u c t s a n d in­ d u s tr ie s ). C h a n g e s to c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s o r r e - a r r a n g e m e n t s c a n th e n b e c a r r i e d o u t in a s far a s it d o e s n o t c h a n g e e.g. th e v a l u e s o f s u p p l y o f g o o d s b y p r o d u c t at th e p u b l i c a t i o n le vel. S i m ila r ly , c h a n g e s tha t w o u l d n o t a f f e c t a g g r e g a t e s s u c h as to tal o u t p u t , i n t e r m e d i a t e c o n s u m p t i o n , o r e v e n G D P , s h o u l d th e n b e a v o i d e d ” ( E U R O S T A T 2 0 0 3 , p. 2 3 2 ).

S u c h a s t r a t e g y w o u l d b e h i g h ly w e l c o m e d by e v e r y b o d y w h o w a n t s to c o m b i n e t im e s e r ie s in f o r m a t i o n fro m n a tio n a l a c c o u n t a n d 1 0 d ata. I f c o n s i s ­ te n c y is n o t g u a r a n t e e d b y th e S ta tistic al O f f i c e th e y w o u l d h a v e to c o n s t r u c t th e i r o w n se t o f 1 0 d a t a c o m p a t i b l e w i t h t i m e se rie s. I f t h e " d i f f e r e n c e m a t r i x ” is p u b l i s h e d it c o u l d b e u s e d in th e m o d e l l i n g p r o c e s s .

4 .2 . N e w d i s s e m i n a t i o n p o lic y

A b ig c h a n g e in th e d a t a d i s s e m i n a t i o n p o l i c y o f E U R O S T A T c a m e into e f ­ fect o n I s' O c t o b e r 2 0 0 4 . A f t e r a c e r ta in t r a n s i tio n p e r i o d a l m o s t all s ta tistica l d a t a w ill b e a v a i l a b l e via in te r n e t free o f c h a rg e .

T h i s c h a n g e in th e d i s s e m i n a t i o n p o l i c y is th e r e s u lt o f n u m e r o u s c o m ­ p la in ts, m a n y s t r u g g l e s , a lo n g d i s c u s s i o n p r o c e s s a n d last b u t n o t least, p r o b a b l y the b y - p r o d u c t o f th e s o - c a l l e d E U R O S T A T sc a n d a l.

In h is i n t r o d u c t o r y s p e e c h to the C o n f e r e n c e o f th e D i r e c t o rs G e n e r a l o f S ta ­ tistical O f f i c e s h e l d in P a l e r m o in S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 2 , R o m a n o P r o d i, P r e s i d e n t o f the E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o n , s tr e s s e d tha t “ s ta tis t ic s a r e vita l i f c i t i z e n s a re to ta k e p a r t in th e life o f th e c o m m u n i t y in a n i n f o rm e d w a y . T h e y a r e a n e s s e n ti a l tool o f d e m o c r a c y ” . In th is r e s p e c t h e a lso e m p h a s i z e d “ tha t s ta tis t ic a l d a t a m u s t b e b o t h r e li a b le a n d e a s y to g r a s p " ( P r o d i 2 0 0 2 ) .

J o a c h i m L a m e l , V ic e P r e s i d e n t o f C E I E S (a u s e r s ’ o r g a n i z a t i o n a l w a y s v e r y a c tiv e in l o b b y i n g for fair a n d b e t te r a c c e s s to s ta tis tic a l d a t a ) a r g u e d in th e s a m e w a y : “ The e a s y a c c e s s to sta tistic a l r e s u lt s is o f s a lie n t i m p o r t a n c e to u s e rs , b e t ­ te r d i s s e m i n a t i o n w ill b e o n e o f t h e c ru c ial p o i n t s in tu r n i n g th e E u r o p e a n S ta ti s ­ tical S y s t e m in to a n i n s t r u m e n t for the c i tiz e n s o f E u r o p e ” 2.

D u r i n g th e s a m e C o n f e r e n c e Y v e s F r a n c h e t, th e n P r e s i d e n t o f E U R O S T A T m a d e th e p r o p o s a l to d e v e l o p a n e w in te g r a te d a p p r o a c h in m a n a g i n g r e la tio n s w ith u se rs: “ S ta ti s tic s a s a p u b lic g o o d , free o f c h a r g e , d e l i v e r y f r o m a c o m m o n in te r n e t p o rtal w i t h th e s a m e d a t a p r e s e n ta t io n s t a n d a r d s ” 1.

A l t h o u g h t h e r e r e m a i n e d s o m e o p p o s i t i o n a g a i n s t th e n e w d i s s e m i n a t i o n p o lic y w ith in th e C o m m i s s i o n a n d fro m s o m e S tatistic a l O f f i c e s t h e n e w s y s t e m sta rt e d on O c t o b e r 1sl. 19 9 4

I lie n e w s y s t e m is c h a r a c t e r i z e d by th e f o l l o w i n g fe a tu re s:

- N e w d i s s e m i n a t i o n to o l s a l o n g th e lin e s o f e x i s t i n g i n s t r u m e n t s s u c h as N e w C r o n o s a n d C o m t e x .

- E U R O S T A T ’s w e b s i t e as the m a i n tool. All E U R O S T A T p u b l i c a t i o n s a r c d o w n l o a d a b l e fre e o f c h a r g e in P D F f o r m a t f ro m th is w e b s i te . - B u lk d o w n l o a d f a c iliti e s f o r " p o w e r u s e rs ” - D e v e l o p m e n t o f a n e l a b o r a t e d m e ta d a t a s y s t e m L im i ts to f re e d i s s e m i n a t i o n a re o n ly g i v e n by: - C o n f i d e n t i a l i t y - M i c r o d a t a

S o m e lim ita tio n : v e ry d e t a i l e d tr a d e d a t a a n d r e g io n a l sta tistics.

T h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f th is n e w d i s s e m i n a t i o n p o lic y o n t h e E u r o p e a n le v els a r e w i d e s p r e a d a n d v e r y p o s itiv e . N a ti o n a l S tatistic al O f f i c e s w h i c h u s e d to sell all th e ir d a t a at h ig h c o s t s h a v e to c h a n g e th e ir o w n p o l i c y w h e n all th e n a tio n a l d a t a b e c o m e s a v a i l a b l e fre e o f c h a r g e f ro m the E U R O S T A T w e b s i t e .

V. I M P L I C A T I O N S F O R IO M O D E L L I N G

5.1. P o s it iv e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f the E u r o p e a n s y s t e m

T h e h ig h d e g r e e o f s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n g u a r a n t e e s a c o n s i d e r a b l e c o m p a r a b i l i t y o f data. 1 Ins h o m o g e n e i t y o f s ta tis t ic s w ith in th e E U w ith r e s p e c t to c o n c e p t s , d e f i n i t i o n s a n d c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s is a b ig a d v a n t a g e fo r l in k i n g m o d e l s for d if fe r e n t c o u n t r i e s .

' Prívale communication. ' Private communication.

The le gal s t a t u s o f th e E S A 95 a l s o p r o v i d e s a c o m m o n l a n g u a g e f o r r e ­ s e a r c h e r s w o r k i n g in th e ELI. T h i s f a c ilita te s c o m m u n i c a t i o n a n d r e d u c e s th e p r o b a b i l i t y o f m i s u n d e r s t a n d i n g . L a st but n o t le ast s o m e “ e c o n o m i e s o f s c a l e ” c a n b e e x p e c t e d in m o d e l b u ild i n g . B e c a u s e o f th e s im ila r it y o f th e d a t a s it u a ti o n m o d u l e s o f I N F O R U M m o d e l s c a n b e e a s i l y tr a n s f e r r e d f ro m th e m o d e l o f o n e E U c o u n t r y to th e m o d e l o f a n o t h e r c o u n t ry . T h e n e w d i s s e m i n a t i o n p o l i c y w ill m a k e a c c e s s to d a t a s i m p l e r a n d c h e a p e r . It will b e c o m e e a s i e r to u s e s ta tistica l re s u lts m o r e a d e q u a t e l y a s s o o n a s d e t a il e d m e t a d a t a w ill b e a v a ila b le . 5.2. D i s a d v a n t a g e s o f t h e E u r o p e a n s y s t e m T h e h i g h d e g r e e o f s ta n d a r d i z a t i o n - o n e o f th e g o a l s i f th e E u r o p e a n S ta ti s ­ tical S y s t e m - h a s its ( h ig h ) p rice . G i v e n th e fact th a t all th e c o n c e p t s a n d ru les a r e laid d o w n in R e g u l a t i o n s a n d th a t t h e s e R e g u l a t i o n s “ a r e b i n d i n g in its e n ­ tire ty a n d d i r e c t l y a p p l i c a b l e in all M e m b e r S t a t e s ” , little r o o m is left f o r f le x i­ bility in g e n e r a l a n d f o r m e t h o d o l o g i c a l a l t e r n a t i v e s in p a r ti c u la r .

N o t e v e r y b o d y w ill a g r e e w ith all th e c o n c e p t s laid d o w n in th e R e g u l a t i o n s . M a n y o f th e p r o v i s i o n s w e r e d r a f te d w ith t h e o p e r a t i o n a l , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r o le o f n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s in th e E U in m i n d a n d c a n n o t b e c o n s i d e r e d a s th e m o s t a d e ­ q u a t e s o l u t i o n s for the r o le o f n a t io n a l a c c o u n t s a s th e e m p i r i c a l b a s is o f e m p i r i ­ cal e c o n o m i c s . O n e o f th e b e s t e x a m p l e s h o w i n a d e q u a t e E u r o p e a n s o l u t i o n s a r e f o r 1 0 p u r p o s e s a r e th e s t a n d a r d c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s that h a v e to b e u se d. T h e a g g r e g a t e s t h a t a re f o r m e d a r e n e i t h e r h o m o g e n e o u s w ith r e s p e c t to __ » t e c h n o l o g y , n o r h o m o g e n e o u s w ith r e s p e c t to l a b o u r in p u t. F o r illu s tr a ti o n pur-—i m p o s e s th e s u b s e c t o r s o f “ 7 0 Real e s ta te a c tiv i tie s ” a r e d i s p l a y e d in g r e a t e r detail

th e f o l l o w i n g ta ble. T h i s in d u s t r y c o m p r i s e s v e r y l a b o u r i n t e n s i v e s e r v i c e a c tiv i tie s s u c h a s “ 7 0 . 3 1 R eal e s ta t e a g e n c i e s ” a n d a c tiv i tie s s u c h as “ 7 0 .2 L e t­

tin g o f o w n p r o p e r t y ” in w h i c h n o o r a l m o s t n o l a b o u r in p u t is re q u ir e d .

70 REAL. ESTATE ACTIVITIES

70.1 Real estate a ctivities w ith ow n property 70 Ix

70.11 Development and selling o f real eslaie 701 Ox

70.12 Buying and selling o f own real estate 701 Ox

70.2 L ettin g o f ow n property 70 lx

70.20 Letting o f own property 701 Ox

70.3 Real estate activities on a fee or contract basis 702

70.31 Real estate agencies 7020x

V e r tic a l in te g r a t i o n - w ith all it u n d e s i r e d c o n s e q u e n c e s for 1 0 a n a l y s i s - c a n a lso b e f o u n d q u i t e f r e q u e n tl y in th e s t a n d a r d c l a s s i fi c a t io n . O n e e x a m p l e is in d u s t r y “ 4 0 E l e c t r i c i t y ” , a n in d u s t ry in w h i c h b o th th e p r o d u c t i o n o f e l e c tr i c it y a n d th e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e l e c tr i c it y a re m e r g e d to g e th e r . Л s e c o n d e x a m p l e is in ­ d u s tr y “ 21 P a p e r a n d p a p e r p r o d u c t s ” , a th ird e x a m p l e i n d u s t r y “ 2 0 P r o d u c t i o n o f w o o d a n d w o o d p r o d u c t s ” . F o r m o s t E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s th e c o m p u l s o r y A 6 0 c l a s s i f i c a t i o n is a l s o not su ite d to g i v e a b a l a n c e d p i c t u r e o f e c o n o m i c re a lity . In t h e A u s t r i a n s it u a ti o n 2 0 0 0 o n e s e c t o r is c o m p l e t e l y e m p t y , in a s e c o n d s e c t o r th e n u m b e r o f u n i t s is so sm a ll tha t th e f ig u re s c a n n o t b e p u b lis h e d . T h e s h a r e o f 13 i n d u s t r i e s o u t o f 58 in d u s t r ie s in to tal o u t p u t is s m a l l e r th a n 0 , 3 % o f o v e r a ll total o u tp u t. U n d e r c e r t a i n c i r c u m s t a n c e s th e p rio ri ty g i v e to c o m p a r a b i l i t y a n d ig n o r in g u n d e r l y i n g e c o n o m i c d i f f e r e n c e s c a n le a d to c u r i o u s re su lts. A c c o r d i n g to the C P A w i n e h a s to b e c l a s s i f i e d u n d e r “ 15 F o o d p r o d u c t s a n d b e v e r a g e s ” , u n d e r “ 15.93 W i n e s ” , j u s t a f t e r “ 15.92 E thyl a l c o h o l ” a n d is t h u s s e e n a s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o u t p u t o f i n d u s t r y N A C E “ 15 M a n u f a c t u r e o f fo o d p r o d u c t s a n d b e v e r a g e s ” . T h i s m i g h t b e a n a p p r o p r i a t e s o lu t i o n for c o u n t r i e s like D e n m a r k o r T h e N e t h e r ­ la n d s. B e c a u s e th e i r c l i m a t e d o e s not a l l o w f o r g r o w i n g g r a p e s t h e y h a v e to im p o r t g r a p e s in o r d e r to p r o d u c e w in e . T h i s is d o n e in t h e b e v e r a g e in d u s try . O n th e o t h e r h a n d in c o u n t r i e s like Italy, F ra n c e , S p a i n , G e r m a n a n d A u s tr ia f a r m e r s s p e c i a l i z e d in w i n e - g r o w i n g h a r v e s t th e i r g r a p e s , p r e s s th e g r a p e s an d p r o d u c e w in e . A c c o r d i n g to E U s t a n d a r d s t h e s e f a r m e r s a r e to b e c l a s s i f i e d u n ­ d e r N A C E “ 01 A g r i c u l t u r e , h u n t i n g a n d r ela ted s e r v i c e a c t i v i t i e s " , th e a c tiv ity p r o d u c t i o n o f w i n e f ro m s e l f - p r o d u c e d g r a p e s is e v e n m e n t i o n e d t h e re e x p l ic i tly . T h e i r o u t p u t , h o w e v e r , h a s to b e c l a s s i f i e d as a n o n - c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o u t p u t u n d e r C P A “ 15 F o o d p r o d u c t s a n d b e v e r a g e s ” . T h i s s ta n d a r d t r e a t m e n t o f w i n e n e c e s ­ s a ril y le a d s to b i g n e g a t i v e e n t r i e s in c o u n t r i e s like A u s t r i a i f c o m m o d i t y t e c h ­ n o l o g y a s s u m p t i o n s a r e a p p l i e d in d e r i v i n g a p r o d u c t - b y - p r o d u c t ta ble. 6. C O N C L U D I N G R E M A R K S W h i c h c o n c l u s i o n s c a n b e d r a w n f ro m th e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s p r e s e n t e d in the p r e c e d i n g p a r a g r a p h s ? T h e f irs t o n e is th a t th e sta tistic a l e n v i r o n m e n t in w h i c h I N F O R U M m o d e l l i n g h a s to t a k e p l a c e is r e g u la te d - o n e is t e m p t e d to sa y o v e r r e g u l a t e d - b y E u r o p e a n le g is la tio n . T h i s o v e r r e g u l a t i o n o f th e E u r o p e a n S ta tistic a l S y s t e m is a l s o th e b a c k g r o u n d w h y so m a n y q u o t a t i o n s f r o m legal t e x ts w e r e m a d e . M u c h o f t h is le g is la tio n w a s d r a f t e d w i t h o t h e r g o a l s in m i n d th a n p r o v i d i n g th e o p t i m a l e m p ir ic a l b a s is fo r m o d e llin g . A t th e s a m e t i m e t h e s ta n d a r d i z e d E u r o p e a n S ta tis tic a l S y s t e m g u a r a n t e e s t h a t m o r e d a t a a n d m o r e u p t o d a t e d a ta is a n d w ill b e a v a i l a b l e in m o s t E u ro

-p e a n c o u n t r i e s th a n in th e -p a s t. P la n n i n g will b e e a s i e r b e c a u s e th e d a t a s it u a ti o n a n d the d a t e s at w h i c h th e d a t a h a s to b e m a d e a v a i l a b l e w ill b e q u i t e t r a n s p a r ­ ent. T h e n e g a t i v e e f f e c t s o f th e s ta n d a r d i s a t i o n m e n t i o n e d in th is p a p e r c a n b e l im ite d i f S ta tistic a l O f f i c e s c a n b e p e r s u a d e d to m a k e t h e d e t a i l e d m a te r ia l w h i c h is u s e d i n te r n a lly in th e p r o c e s s o f c o m p i l i n g t h e d a t a a v a i l a b l e to the q u a l if ie d user. H e w ill th e n fin d h i m s e l f in a p o s it io n to c o m p i l e a d a t a se t w h ic h is m o r e a d e q u a t e to h is n e e d s t h a n th e s t a n d a r d p r o d u c t o f f e r e d b y t h e S tatistic a l O ff ic e . N o s i n g l e set o f s u p p l y a n d u se ta b le s c a n s e r v e all a n a l y t i c a l p u r p o s e s for w h i c h th e a p p l i c a t i o n o f 1 0 t e c h n i q u e s is h i g h l y r e c o m m e n d a b l e (s. R i c h te r 1993). T h e r e f o r e a p l e a is m a d e in f a v o u r o f a d u a l str a t e g y . T w o o r m o r e d i f f e r e n t d a t a b a s e s s h o u l d b e o f f e r e d by the S ta tistic al A g e n c i e s : O n e s e t o f h i g h l y s t a n ­ d a r d i z e d a n d c o m p a r a b l e 1 0 d a t a d e s i g n e d for “ n o n - s p e c i f i c s t a n d a r d 1 0 a n a l y ­ sis" a n d fu lly c o m p a t i b l e w ith the E u r o p e a n le g is la tio n . A d d i t i o n a l d a t a s e t s s h o u l d c o n t a i n th e m o s t d e t a il e d 1 0 i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e in th e v a r i o u s c o u n ­ tries in o r d e r to c a r r y o u t “ i n - d e p t h - a n a l y s i s ” . A s i m i l a r s t r a t e g y is a p p r o p r i a t e f o r c o n s t a n t p r i c e c a l c u l a t i o n s . In a d d i tio n to th e s ta n d a r d r e s u lt s at p r ic e s o f th e p r e v i o u s y e a r , I N F O R U M m o d e l l i n g n e e d s a n a l t e r n a t i v e set o f “ r e a l ” a c c o u n t s in w h i c h a d d i t i v i t y is g u a r a n t e e d . S tatistic a l O f f i c e s s h o u l d b e p e r s u a d e d to p r o d u c e s u c h a s e c o n d s e t o f d a t a for m o d e l l i n g p u r p o s e s . T h i s w o u l d b e in full a c c o r d a n c e w ith t h e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n o f t h e S N A , tha t “ d is a g g r e g a t e d c o n s t a n t p r ic e d a t a s h o u l d b e c o m p i l e d a n d p u b l i s h e d in a d d i t i o n to th e c h a i n in d ic e s for th e m a i n a g g r e g a t e s . T h e n e e d to p u b lis h tw o se ts o f d a t a tha t m a y a p p e a r to c o n f li c t w ith e a c h o t h e r s h o u l d be r e a d ily a p p r e c i a t e d b y a n a l y s t s e n g a g e d in m a c r o e c o n o m i c m o d e l l i n g a n d f o r e c a s t i n g ” ( S N A 1993, 16.75). T h e m o n e y s a v e d b e c a u s e m u c h d a t a o f th e s t a n d a r d t y p e w ill b e a v a i l a b l e fre e o f c h a r g e in th e n e a r fu tu re , c o u l d b e s p e n t fo r a l t e r n a t i v e t a b u l a t i o n s an d m a d e to m e a s u r e s o lu t io n s . T h i s w o u l d a l l o w b u i l d i n g I N F O R U M m o d e l s a c ­ c o r d i n g to th e s p e c i f i c n e e d s o f d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s . E u r o p e a n s t a n d a r d s c o u l d n e v e r t h e l e s s s e r v e a s th e c o m m o n d e n o m i n a t o r s for m o d e l s o f s o m e w h a t d i f f e r ­ e n t c h a r a c t e r a n d detail. REFER E NC ES

A 1 m o n С. (1998), Economic Statistics, C ollege Park 1998

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