Informacje i komentarze zawarte w niniejszym raporcie nie stanowi¹ rekomendacji w rozumieniu rozporz¹dzenia Ministra Finansów z dnia 19 padziernika 2005 r. w sprawie informacji stanowi¹cych rekomendacje dotycz¹ce instrumentów finansowych, ich emitentów lub wystawców (Dz.U. Nr 206, poz. 1715).
DM nie ponosi odpowiedzialnoci za decyzje inwestycyjne podjête na podstawie informacji zawartych w niniejszym opracowaniu.
Dom Maklerski PKO BP ul. Pu³awska 15 02-515 Warszawa tel. (0-22) 521-80-00 Analityk:
Przemys³aw Smoliñski tel. (0-22) 521-79-10 e-mail:
przemyslaw.smolinski2@pkobp.pl
Analiza Techniczna
Komentarz: WIG20, S&P 500
Poniedzia³ek 21.07.2014
WIG20 (Polska)
Od kilku sesji WIG20 konsoliduje siê po wczeniejszym, korekcyjnym odbiciu. Choæ na razie brak sygna³ów kontynuacji wzrostów, to jednak wydaje siê ona bardziej prawdopodobna ni¿ powrót spadków.
S&P 500 (USA)
Po d³ugiej czarnej wiecy z czwartku, w pi¹tek na wykresie S&P 500 pojawi³a siê niemal tej samej d³ugoci, bia³a wieca. Choæ dopóki indeks pozostaje poni¿ej ostatniego, lokalnego maksimum, obowi¹zuje scenariusz spadkowy, to jednak coraz wiêcej sugeruje atak na wspomniany opór.
1 1 April
23478910 11 14 15 16 17 22 23 24 25 28 29 30 2 May
5678912 13 14 15 16 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 2 June
3456910 11 12 13 16 17 18 20 23 24 25 26 27 30 1 July
23478910 11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
2260 2265 2270 2275 2280 2285 2290 2295 2300 2305 2310 2315 2320 2325 2330 2335 2340 2345 2350 2355 2360 2365 2370 2375 2380 2385 2390 2395 2400 2405 2410 2415 2420 2425 2430 2435 2440 2445 2450 2455 2460 2465 2470 2475 2480 2485 2490 2495 2500 2505 2510 2515 2520 2525 2530 2535 2540 2545 2550
30 May
14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 412
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 7
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
April 14 22 28 5
May 12 19 26 2
June 916 23 30
July 714 21 28
A
-10 -9
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 10
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650
14 21 29 4 June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 4 10
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 31
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 22 28 411
February 19 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 28 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 3 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 21 27 310
February 18 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
April 14 21 28 5
May 12 19 27 2
June 916 23 30 7
July 14 21 28
A
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
April
7 14 21 28
May
5 12 19 27 2
June
9 16 23 30
July
7 14 21
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1805 1810 1815 1820 1825 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Wykres dnia: CD Projekt
W pi¹tek CD Projekt silnie zwy¿kowa³, tworz¹c na wykresie d³ug¹ bia³¹ wiecê, sugeruj¹c¹ kontynuacjê wzrostów na kolejnych sesjach. Potwierdzeniem powy¿szego scenariusza bêdzie pokonanie ostatniego, lokalnego maksimum na poziomie 15,50 z³. W takim przypadku, minimalny zasiêg ruchu nale¿y szacowaæ na 16,07-16,47 z³, ale kurs mo¿e siêgn¹æ okolic 17,63 z³ lub wy¿ej.
CD Projekt (Polska)
July August September October November December 2014 February March April May June July Augus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8 .5
9 .0
9 .5
1 0 .0
1 0 .5
1 1 .0
1 1 .5
1 2 .0
1 2 .5
1 3 .0
1 3 .5
1 4 .0
1 4 .5
1 5 .0
1 5 .5
1 6 .0
1 6 .5
1 7 .0
1 7 .5
1 8 .0
1 8 .5
21 lipiec 2014 3
23 2 May
14 21 29 4 June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 21 27 3 10
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 245 12
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 21 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 2129
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
April 14 22 28
May 12 19 26 2
June 10 16 23 30
July 714 21 28
A
-12 -11 -10 10 11 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
16000 16500 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000
31 April
7 14 22 28 5
May
12 19 26 2
June
10 16 23 30
July
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
17100 17200 17300 17400 17500 17600 17700 17800 17900 18000 18100 18200 18300 18400 18500 18600 18700 18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700
21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 236
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
April 14 22 28 5
May 12 19 26 2
June 916 23 30
July 714 21 28
A
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 15
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600
April
7 14 22 28 5
May
12 19 26 2
June
9 16 23 30
July
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290 2300 2310 2320 2330 2340 2350 2360 2370 2380 2390 2400 2410 2420 2430 2440 2450 2460 2470
ay 14 21 28 4
June 1325 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 6 12
November 19 26 310
December 17 24 8 14
2013 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 5 11
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 3013
2014 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 11 17 24 31 7
April 14 21 28 5
May 12 19 26 2
June 923 30
July 714 21 28
A
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 15
1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400
31 April
7 14 21 28 5
May
12 19 26 2
June
9 16 23 30
July
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
BUX (Wêgry)
RTX (Rosja)
CECE (Europa rodkowo-
wschodnia)
4 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
April 14 22 28 5
May 12 19 26 2
June 916 23 30
July 714 21 28
A
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 11
6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500
April
7 14 22 28 5
May
12 19 26 2
June
9 16 23 30
July
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
9100 9150 9200 9250 9300 9350 9400 9450 9500 9550 9600 9650 9700 9750 9800 9850 9900 9950 10000 10050 10100
23 1 May
14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2
July 917 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 3 10
September 18 24 1 9
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 25 7
2013 15 21 28 412
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 8 15 22 30
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 16 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 17 24 30 7
October 15 21 28 5 11
November 18 25 29
December 16 24 30
2014 14 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
April 14 21 28 7
May 12 19 26 2
June 916 23 30
July 714 21 28
A
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000 15500 16000 16500 17000
April
7 14 21 28
May
7 12 19 26 2
June
9 16 23 30
July
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
13800 13850 13900 13950 14000 14050 14100 14150 14200 14250 14300 14350 14400 14450 14500 14550 14600 14650 14700 14750 14800 14850 14900 14950 15000 15050 15100 15150 15200 15250 15300 15350 15400 15450 15500 15550 15600
16 23 2 May
14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 815
October 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31
2013 14 21 28 418
February 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 15 22 2
May 13 20 27 3
June 1324 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 1630 14
October 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 10 17
February 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 8
April 14 21 28
May 12 19 26 3
June 916 23 30
July 714 21 28 4
A
-10
-5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500
April
8 14 21 28 5
May
12 19 26 3
June
9 16 23 30
July
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 2105 2110 2115 2120 2125 2130 2135 2140 2145 2150 2155 2160
DAX (Niemcy)
SHCOMP
(Chiny)
NIKKEI 225
(Japonia)
21 lipiec 2014 5
14 21 28 6 June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 28 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 247
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 7
May 13 20 28 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 27 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 236
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
April 14 22 28 6
May 12 19 27 2
June 916 23 30
July 714 21 28
A
-11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 10
6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600
31 April
7 14 22 28
May
6 12 19 27 2
June
9 16 23 30
July
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
6500 6550 6600 6650 6700 6750 6800 6850 6900 6950 7000 7050 7100 7150 7200 7250
4 June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5 12
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
April 14 21 28 5
May 12 19 26 2
June 916 23 30
July 714 21 28
A
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122
7 14 21 28
May
5 12 19 26 2
June
9 16 23 30
July
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
103.5 104.0 104.5 105.0 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.5 108.0 108.5 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.5 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.5 114.0 114.5 115.0 115.5 116.0 116.5
28 4 June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 277
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
April 14 22 28 5
May 12 19 26 2
June 916 23 30
July 714 21 28
A
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7
7 14 22 28
May
5 12 19 26 2
June
9 16 23 30
July
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.80 3.85 3.90 3.95 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30
Mied
(LME)
Obligacje 10-letnie (Polska)
Ropa Brent
(Wielka Brytania)
11 18 25 2 July
916 23 30 6 August
13 20 27 310 September
17 24 18 October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
April 14 21 28 5
May 12 19 26 2
June 916 23 30
July 714 21 28
A
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
2.95 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.15 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50
7 14 21 28
May
5 12 19 26 2
June
9 16 23 30
July
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
2.990 2.995 3.000 3.005 3.010 3.015 3.020 3.025 3.030 3.035 3.040 3.045 3.050 3.055 3.060 3.065 3.070 3.075
4 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 9 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 4 10
March 17 24 31 7
April 14 21 28 5
May 12 19 27 2
June 916 23 30
July 714 21 28
A
-5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45
7 14 21 28
May
5 12 19 27 2
June
9 16 23 30
July
7 14 21
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
4.080 4.085 4.090 4.095 4.100 4.105 4.110 4.115 4.120 4.125 4.130 4.135 4.140 4.145 4.150 4.155 4.160 4.165 4.170 4.175 4.180 4.185 4.190 4.195 4.200 4.205 4.210 4.215 4.220 4.225 4.230 4.235 4.240
11 18 25 2 July
916 23 30 6 August
13 20 27 310 September
17 24 18 October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
April 14 21 28 5
May 12 19 26 2
June 916 23 30
July 714 21 28
A
