Informacje i komentarze zawarte w niniejszym raporcie nie stanowi¹ rekomendacji w rozumieniu Rozporz¹dzenia Rady Ministrów z dnia 19 padziernika 2005 roku w sprawie informacji stanowi¹cych rekomendacje dotycz¹ce instrumentów finansowych, ich emitentów lub wystawców. DM nie ponosi odpowiedzialnoci za decyzje inwestycyjne podjête na podstawie informacji zawartych w niniejszym opracowaniu.
PKO Dom Maklerski ul. Pu³awska 15 02-515 Warszawa tel. (0-22) 521-80-00 Analityk:
Przemys³aw Smoliñski tel. (0-22) 521-79-10 e-mail:
przemyslaw.smolinski2@pkobp.pl
Analiza Techniczna
Komentarz: WIG20, S&P 500
Wtorek 03.12.2013
WIG20 (Polska)
Wczorajsza sesja przynios³a silny spadek WIG20. Indeks prze³ama³ wsparcie na poziomie 2558, generuj¹c sygna³ sprzeda¿y. Minimalny zasiêg ruchu nale¿y szacowaæ na ju¿ na 2525 punktów, ale indeks bez wiêkszych problemów mo¿e siêgn¹æ 2450-2470 punktów i ni¿ej.
S&P 500 (USA)
S&P 500 ponownie wczoraj zni¿kowa³. Choæ bior¹c pod uwagê rednioterminowe wykupienie, rozpoczêcie spadkowej korekty by³oby jak najbardziej zrozumia³e, to jednak na razie wci¹¿ trudno mówiæ o konkretnych sygna³ach sprzeda¿y.
4 16 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 23 September
456910 11 12 13 16 17 18 19 20 23 24 25 26 27 30 12 October
3478910 11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 25 28 29 30 31 45 November
67812 13 14 15 18 19 20 21 22 25 26 27 28 29 23 December
45 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
2130 2140 2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290 2300 2310 2320 2330 2340 2350 2360 2370 2380 2390 2400 2410 2420 2430 2440 2450 2460 2470 2480 2490 2500 2510 2520 2530 2540 2550 2560 2570 2580 2590 2600 2610 2620 2630 2640 2650 2660 2670
19 26 310 October
17 24 31 7 14 November 21 28 512
December 19 27 2 9
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 412
November 18 25 29
Decembe 1
-15 -10 -5 0 5 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 10
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650
26 3 10 October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5 12
December 19 27 3 9
2012 17 23 30 6
February 13 21 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 9
April 16 23 30
May 7 14 21 29 4
June 11 18 25 2 9
July 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 4 10
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 3112
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 22 28 4 11
February 19 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 8 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 28 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 3 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
Decembe 1
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 9
1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850
19 26 3
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21 28 4
November
11 18 25 2
Decembe -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1615 1620 1625 1630 1635 1640 1645 1650 1655 1660 1665 1670 1675 1680 1685 1690 1695 1700 1705 1710 1715 1720 1725 1730 1735 1740 1745 1750 1755 1760 1765 1770 1775 1780 1785 1790 1795 1800 1805 1810 1815 1820 1825 1830
Wykres dnia: Pu³awy
Wczoraj Pu³awy prze³ama³y ostatnie lokalne maksimum, sugeruj¹c zakoñczenie korekty i powrót trendu wzrostowego. Minimalny zasiêg ruchu nale¿y szacowaæ na 200,79 z³, ale bez wiêkszych problemów kurs mo¿e siêgn¹æ okolic 210,25 z³, gdzie przebiega górne ograniczenie d³ugoterminowego kana³u wzrostowego.
Pu³awy (Polska)
10 17 mber 27 7
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4 11 March 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29
May 13 20 27 3 10 June 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5 12
August 19 26 2 9 16 September 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 4 12 18 November 25 2 9 1
December
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 0 5
1 1 0
1 1 5
1 2 0
1 2 5
1 3 0
1 3 5
1 4 0
1 4 5
1 5 0
1 5 5
1 6 0
1 6 5
1 7 0
1 7 5
1 8 0
1 8 5
1 9 0
1 9 5
2 0 0
2 0 5
2 1 0
3 grudzieñ 2013 3
12 19 26 310 October 17 24 2
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 27 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 1226 2 10
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 29 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 21 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 24 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 21 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 212 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
Decembe 1
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
14500 15000 15500 16000 16500 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000 20500
21 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21 28 4
November
11 18 25 2
Decembe -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
17650 17700 17750 17800 17850 17900 17950 18000 18050 18100 18150 18200 18250 18300 18350 18400 18450 18500 18550 18600 18650 18700 18750 18800 18850 18900 18950 19000 19050 19100 19150 19200 19250 19300 19350 19400 19450 19500
10 tober 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 27 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 10 16 23 30 7
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
Decembe 1
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600
9 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21 28 4
November
11 18 25 2
Decembe -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550
26 3 10 October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5 12
December 19 26 3 9
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 19 26 2 9
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 28 4
June 1325 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 6 12
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 24 8 14
2013 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 8 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 5 11
November 18 25 2 9
December 16
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 20
1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600
9 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21 28 5
November
11 18 25 2
December -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1780 1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160 2170
BUX (Wêgry)
RTX (Rosja)
CECE (Europa rodkowo-
wschodnia)
10 ctober 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 27 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30 7
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
Decembe 1
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 15
5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500
9 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21 28 4
November
11 18 25 2
Decembe -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
8000 8050 8100 8150 8200 8250 8300 8350 8400 8450 8500 8550 8600 8650 8700 8750 8800 8850 8900 8950 9000 9050 9100 9150 9200 9250 9300 9350 9400 9450 9500
12 tember 20311
October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 4
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 1
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 917 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 18 24 19
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 25 7
2013 15 21 28 412
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1 8
April 15 22 30
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 816 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 17 24 30 7
October 15 21 28 5 11
November 18 25 2 9
December
16
-15
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000 15500 16000 16500
19 26 2
September
9 17 24 30
October
7 15 21 28 5
November
11 18 25 2
December -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
13000 13100 13200 13300 13400 13500 13600 13700 13800 13900 14000 14100 14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300 15400 15500 15600 15700 15800 15900 16000
5 22 29 513 September
19 26 10 17 October 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 512
December 19 26 4
2012 16 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 5
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 815
October 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31
2013 14 21 28 418
February 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 15 22 2
May 13 20 27 3
June 1324 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 1630 14
October 21 28 411
November 18 25 2 9
December 16
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650
12 19 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
14 21 28 4
November
11 18 25 2
December -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290
DAX (Niemcy)
SHCOMP
(Chiny)
NIKKEI 225
(Japonia)
3 grudzieñ 2013 5
6 310 October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 289
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 8 14 21 28 6
June 11 18 25 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 28 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 247
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 7
May 13 20 28 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 27 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
Decembe 1
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900
19 27 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21 28 4
November
11 18 25 2
Decembe -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
6900 6950 7000 7050 7100 7150 7200 7250 7300 7350 7400
17 24 31 7 November
14 21 28 5 December
12 19 27 3 9 2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 9
April 16 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
Decembe 1
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130
9 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21 28 4
November
11 18 25 2
Decembe -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
101.5 102.0 102.5 103.0 103.5 104.0 104.5 105.0 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.5 108.0 108.5 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.5 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.5 114.0 114.5 115.0 115.5 116.0 116.5 117.0 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.5 120.0
10 ctober 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5 12
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 277
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
Decembe 1
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
9 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21 28 4
November
11 18 25 2
Decembe -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55 4.60 4.65 4.70 4.75 4.80 4.85 4.90 4.95 5.00 5.05
Mied
(LME)
Obligacje 10-letnie (Polska)
Ropa Brent
(Wielka Brytania)
24 31 7 November
14 21 28 512 December 19 26 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
Decembe 1
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 12
3.00 3.05 3.10 3.15 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.65
9 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21 28 4
November
11 18 25 2
Decembe -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
2.99 3.00 3.01 3.02 3.03 3.04 3.05 3.06 3.07 3.08 3.09 3.10 3.11 3.12 3.13 3.14 3.15 3.16 3.17 3.18 3.19 3.20 3.21 3.22 3.23 3.24 3.25 3.26 3.27 3.28 3.29 3.30 3.31
6 310 October 17 24 31 7
November 14 21 28 5
December 12 19 26 2 9
2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 9 16 23 30
May 7 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 3 10
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 29 5 12
November 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 19
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
Decembe
1
-7
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 9
3.95 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55 4.60 4.65
19 26 2
September
9 16 23 30
October
7 14 21 28 4
November
11 18 25 2
Decembe -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
4.130 4.135 4.140 4.145 4.150 4.155 4.160 4.165 4.170 4.175 4.180 4.185 4.190 4.195 4.200 4.205 4.210 4.215 4.220 4.225 4.230 4.235 4.240 4.245 4.250 4.255 4.260 4.265 4.270 4.275 4.280 4.285 4.290 4.295 4.300 4.305 4.310 4.315 4.320
24 31 7 November
14 21 28 512 December 19 26 2
2012 916 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 8 15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
Decembe 1
