PKO Dom Maklerski ul. Pu³awska 15 02-515 Warszawa tel. (0-22) 521-80-00 Analityk:
Przemys³aw Smoliñski
Analiza Techniczna
Komentarz: WIG20, S&P 500
Poniedzia³ek 24.03.2014
WIG20 (Polska)
Pomimo wysokiego otwarcia pi¹tkowej sesji, ostatecznie WIG20 zakoñczy³ dzieñ na niewielkim minusie. Tym samym, indeks nadal przebywa w krótkoterminowej konsolidacji i ca³y czas nieco wiêcej przemawia za opuszczeniem jej gór¹.
S&P 500 (USA)
S&P 500 nie zdo³a³ w pi¹tek pokonaæ oporu na poziomie szczytu z pocz¹tku marca. Choæ na wykresie pojawi³a siê pesymistycznie wygl¹daj¹ca, czarna wieca z d³ugim górnym cieniem, to jednak na razie nie przekrela³bym ca³kowicie kolejnej próby prze³amania wspomnianego poziomu.
8 29 23 December
456910 11 12 13 16 17 18 19 20 23 27 30 23 2014
78910 13 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 24 27 28 29 30 31 34 February
56710 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 28 34 March
56710 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
2260 2270 2280 2290 2300 2310 2320 2330 2340 2350 2360 2370 2380 2390 2400 2410 2420 2430 2440 2450 2460 2470 2480 2490 2500 2510 2520 2530 2540 2550 2560 2570 2580 2590 2600 2610 2620
2 9 2012 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 412
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 7
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31
Apr
-10 -9
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 10
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650
17 23 30 6 February
13 21 27 5 March
12 19 26 2 9 April 16 23 30
May 714 21 29 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 4 10
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 31
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 22 28 411
February 19 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 28 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 3 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 21 27 310
February 18 24 3
March 10 17 24 31
Apr
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900
2 December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 21 27 3
February
10 18 24 3
March
10 17 24
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1730 1735 1740 1745 1750 1755 1760 1765 1770 1775 1780 1785 1790 1795 1800 1805 1810 1815 1820 1825 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895
Wykres dnia: Indygotech
Wczorajsza sesja przynios³a silny wzrost Indygotech, sugeruj¹c próbê zakoñczenia korekty i trwa³ego powrotu wzrostów. Potwierdzeniem powy¿szego scenariusza bêdzie pokonanie krótkoterminowego oporu na poziomie lokalnego szczytu z pocz¹tku miesi¹ca. W takim przypadku, kurs powinien siêgn¹æ co najmniej 1,95 z³, ale prawdopodobny jest atak na kolejny opór na poziomie szczytów z koñca ubieg³ego roku w okolicy 2,30 z³.
Jego pokonanie otworzy³oby drogê dla wzrostów nawet powy¿ej 2,50 z³.
Indygotech (Polska)
15 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 2 9
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 4 12
November 18 25 2 9
December 16 23 7
2014 13 20 27 3 10
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 April 7 1
0
50
100
0 .5
1 .0
1 .5
2 .0
2 .5
3 .0
27 2 2012
9 16 23 30 6 February 13 20 27 5
March 1226 2 10
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 29 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 21 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 24512
November 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 21 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 2129
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31
Apr
-10
-5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
16000 16500 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000
8 29 23 December
456910 11 12 13 16 17 18 19 20 23 30 2 2014
3678910 13 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 24 27 28 29 30 31 34 February
56710 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 28 34 March
56710 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
15700 15800 15900 16000 16100 16200 16300 16400 16500 16600 16700 16800 16900 17000 17100 17200 17300 17400 17500 17600 17700 17800 17900 18000 18100 18200 18300 18400 18500 18600 18700 18800 18900 19000 19100 19200 19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000
23 30 6 February
13 20 27 5 March
12 19 26 2 10 April 16 23 30 7
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 236
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31
Apr
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600
2 December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March
10 17 24
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280 2290 2300 2310 2320 2330 2340 2350 2360 2370 2380 2390 2400 2410 2420 2430 2440 2450 2460 2470
9 12 16 23 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 2
May 14 21 28 4
June 1325 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 6 12
November 19 26 310
December 17 24 8 14
2013 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 5 11
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 3013
2014 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 11 17 24 31 7
Apri
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 20
1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650
2 December
9 16 23 30 6
2014
13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March
11 17 24
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
BUX (Wêgry)
RTX (Rosja)
CECE (Europa rodkowo-
wschodnia)
6 23 30 6 February
13 20 27 5 March
12 19 26 2 10 April 16 23 30 7
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 27 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31
Apr
-10
-5 0 5 10 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 15
6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000
2 December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March
10 17 24
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
8850 8900 8950 9000 9050 9100 9150 9200 9250 9300 9350 9400 9450 9500 9550 9600 9650 9700 9750 9800 9850
26 4 2012
16 23 30 6 February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 1
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 917 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 3 10
September 18 24 19
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 25 7
2013 15 21 28 412
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 815 22 30
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 816 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 17 24 30 7
October 15 21 28 5 11
November 18 25 29
December 16 24 30
2014 14 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
Apri
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000 15500 16000 16500 17000
2 December
9 16 24 30
2014
14 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March
10 17 24
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
13900 14000 14100 14200 14300 14400 14500 14600 14700 14800 14900 15000 15100 15200 15300 15400 15500 15600 15700 15800 15900 16000 16100 16200 16300 16400 16500
cember 12 19 26 4
2012 16 30 6
February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 5
April 16 23 2
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 815
October 22 29 512
November 19 26 3 10
December 17 24 31
2013 14 21 28 418
February 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 15 22 2
May 13 20 27 3
June 1324 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 1630 14
October 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 10 17
February 24 3
March 10 17 24 31 7
Apri
-10
-5 0 5 10 15 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500
2 December
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 10
February
17 24 3
March
10 17 24
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2260 2270 2280
DAX (Niemcy)
SHCOMP
(Chiny)
NIKKEI 225
(Japonia)
6 23 30 6 February
13 20 27 5 March
12 19 26 2 10 April 16 23 30 8
May 14 21 28 6
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 28 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 247
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 7
May 13 20 28 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 27 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 236
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31
Apr
-12 -11 -10 10 11 12 13 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800 6900 7000 7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 8900 9000
cember
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March
10 17 24
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Oscylator krotkoterminowy
6250 6300 6350 6400 6450 6500 6550 6600 6650 6700 6750 6800 6850 6900 6950 7000 7050 7100 7150 7200 7250 7300 7350 7400 7450 7500 7550
6 ebruary
13 20 27 5 March
12 19 26 2 9 April 16 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 9 16 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 512
November 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 4 11
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 18
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31
Apr
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March
10 17 24
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
105.0 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.5 108.0 108.5 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.5 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.5
3 30 6 February 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2 10
April 16 23 30
May 7 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 3 10
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 277
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 2 8
April 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31
Apr
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March
10 17 24
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
3.90 3.95 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50 4.55 4.60 4.65 4.70 4.75 4.80
Mied
(LME)
Obligacje 10-letnie (Polska)
Ropa Brent
(Wielka Brytania)
uary 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 8 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31
Apr
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy 12
2.95 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.15 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.65
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 3
March
10 17 24
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
2.975 2.980 2.985 2.990 2.995 3.000 3.005 3.010 3.015 3.020 3.025 3.030 3.035 3.040 3.045 3.050 3.055 3.060 3.065 3.070 3.075 3.080 3.085 3.090 3.095 3.100 3.105 3.110 3.115 3.120 3.125 3.130 3.135 3.140 3.145 3.150 3.155 3.160 3.165 3.170 3.175
6 23 30 6 February
13 20 27 5 March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 30 7
May 14 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 1 8
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 9 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 4 10
March 17 24 31
Apr
-6.5 -6.0 -5.5 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 Wskaznik srednioterm inowy
4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45
9 16 23 30
2014
6 13 20 27 3
February
10 17 24 4
March
10 17 24
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Oscylator krotkoterminowy 105
4.080 4.085 4.090 4.095 4.100 4.105 4.110 4.115 4.120 4.125 4.130 4.135 4.140 4.145 4.150 4.155 4.160 4.165 4.170 4.175 4.180 4.185 4.190 4.195 4.200 4.205 4.210 4.215 4.220 4.225 4.230 4.235 4.240 4.245 4.250 4.255 4.260 4.265 4.270 4.275 4.280 4.285 4.290 4.295
uary 13 20 27 5
March 12 19 26 2
April 916 23 30
May 714 21 28 4
June 11 18 25 2
July 916 23 30 6
August 13 20 27 310
September 17 24 18
October 15 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 310
December 17 24 31 7
2013 14 21 28 411
February 18 25 4
March 11 18 25 1
April 8 15 22 29 6
May 13 20 27 3
June 10 17 24 1
July 815 22 29 5
August 12 19 26 29
September 16 23 30 7
October 14 21 28 411
November 18 25 29
December 16 23 30 6
2014 13 20 27 310
February 17 24 3
March 10 17 24 31
Apr
