3URHIVFKULIW WHUYHUNULMJLQJYDQGHJUDDGYDQGRFWRU DDQGH7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWHLW'HOIW RSJH]DJYDQGH5HFWRU0DJQLILFXVSURILU.&$0/X\EHQ YRRU]LWWHUYDQKHW&ROOHJHYRRU3URPRWLHV LQKHWRSHQEDDUWHYHUGHGLJHQ RSYULMGDJPDDUWRPXXU GRRU3RRODG.$5,0,
0DVWHU¶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
LLL
6\PEROVDQGDEEUHYLDWLRQVYLL 6XPPDU\[L ,QWURGXFWLRQ %DFNJURXQG 2YHUYLHZRIH[LVWLQJZDWHUDFFRXQWLQJIUDPHZRUNV 5HVHDUFKTXHVWLRQVDQGWKHVLVRXWOLQH :DWHU$FFRXQWLQJ3OXV:$±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«««««««««««««««««««««««««««« &XUULFXOXP9LWDH««««««««««««««««««««««««««««« /LVWRISXEOLFDWLRQV««««««««««««««««««««««««««««
YLL
6\PEROVDQGDEEUHYLDWLRQV
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ǹ 6KDSH ī 6NHZQHVV ǻ6I )UHVKZDWHUVWRUDJHFKDQJH ǻ6I*: JURXQGZDWHUVWRUDJHFKDQJH ǻ6I60 6QRZDQGJODFLHUVWRUDJHFKDQJH ǻ6I6: 6XUIDFHZDWHUVWRUDJHFKDQJH ǻ63 6WRUDJHFKDQJHRISROOXWHGZDWHU ǽ /RFDWLRQ ȍ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
L[ *6)& *RGGDUGVSDFHIOLJKWFHQWHU¶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¶REVHUYDWLRQGHODWHUUH
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
[L
6XPPDU\
7KLV WKHVLV LQWURGXFHV :DWHU $FFRXQWLQJ 3OXV :$ ZKLFK LV D QHZ IUDPHZRUN GHVLJQHG WR SURYLGHH[SOLFLWVSDWLDOLQIRUPDWLRQRQZDWHUGHSOHWLRQDQGQHWZLWKGUDZDOSURFHVVHVLQFRPSOH[ ULYHUEDVLQV:$LVDVLPSOH\HWFRPSUHKHQVLYHDQGXQGHUVWDQGDEOHZDWHUDFFRXQWLQJIUDPHZRUN WKDWSURYLGHVDVWDQGDUGL]HGZD\RIGDWDFROOHFWLRQDQGDSUHVHQWDWLRQV\VWHPWKDWGHVFULEHVWKH RYHUDOOODQGDQGZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWVLWXDWLRQLQFRPSOH[ULYHUEDVLQV:$WUDFNVZDWHUGHSOHWLRQV UDWKHUWKDQZLWKGUDZDOVDQGLWJRHVSDVWIORZDQGUXQRIIDFFRXQWLQJ
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
7KH :$ IUDPHZRUN LPSURYHV XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH FXUUHQW VWDWH RI D EDVLQ LVVXHV IXWXUH FKDOOHQJHVDQGLPSURYHPHQWRSSRUWXQLWLHV,WSURYLGHVWKHLQIRUPDWLRQWKDWZLOOKHOSPDQDJHUVWR PDNHWKHEDVLQPRUHFOLPDWHVHFXUHDQGWRDGDSWWRSHULRGVRIGURXJKWVDQGIORRGV,WFDQEHXVHG WR PRQLWRU FKDQJHV LQ D EDVLQ¶V ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV VLWXDWLRQ DQG WR DVVHVV WKH LPSDFWV RI IXWXUH LQWHUYHQWLRQVVXFKDVODUJHVFDOHODQGXVHFKDQJHDQGH[SDQGLQJLUULJDWHGDJULFXOWXUH7RHQVXUH JOREDODSSOLFDELOLW\RI:$WKHIUDPHZRUNLVGHVLJQHGWRSULPDULO\XVHGDWDIURPRSHQDFFHVV VDWHOOLWHPHDVXUHPHQWV
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
[LL
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
[LY
ͳ
ͳ
&KDSWHULVSDUWLDOO\EDVHGRQ.DULPL30ROGHQ'%DVWLDDQVVHQ:*0DQG&DL;:DWHUDFFRXQWLQJWR DVVHVVXVHDQGSURGXFWLYLW\RIZDWHU±HYROXWLRQRIWKHFRQFHSWDQGQHZIURQWLHUVLQ:DWHUDFFRXQWLQJLQWHUQDWLRQDO DSSURDFKHV WR SROLF\ DQG GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ HGLWHG E\ &KDOPHUV . DQG *RGIUH\ - &KDSWHU (GJDU (OJHU &KHOWHQKDP8.
%DFNJURXQG
:DWHUVFDUFLW\LVGHILQHGDVWKHVLWXDWLRQZKHQOLIHDQGOLYHOLKRRGVRISHRSOHDUHWKUHDWHQHGGXHWR ODFN RI DFFHVV WR VDIH DQG DIIRUGDEOH ZDWHU IRU GULQNLQJ VDQLWDWLRQ DQG IRRG SURGXFWLRQ 5LMVEHUPDQ0DQ\DUHDVRIWKHZRUOGVXIIHUZDWHUVFDUFLW\,WLVHVWLPDWHGWKDWFXUUHQWO\ RYHUELOOLRQSHRSOHOLYHLQEDVLQVWKDWVWUXJJOHZLWKZDWHUVFDUFLW\*OHLFN0ROGHQ 5RFNVWU|PHWDO3RSXODWLRQJURZWKFKDQJLQJGLHWVDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWKDUHFDXVHVRID ORRPLQJJOREDOZDWHUFULVLV3URMHFWLRQVVXJJHVWWKDWRYHUWKHQH[WVHYHUDOGHFDGHVWKHSRSXODWLRQ RI SHRSOH ZKRVH OLYHV ZLOO EH DIIHFWHG E\ ZDWHU VFDUFLW\ ZLOO ULVH WR WZRWKLUGV RI WKH ZRUOG SRSXODWLRQ$OFDPRHWDO6HFNOHUHWDO6KLNORPDQRY:DOODFH:DOODFH DQG*UHJRU\$QLQFUHDVLQJQXPEHURI³FORVHG´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
LQPDQ\EDVLQVZKHUHZDWHUGHPDQGLVUHDFKLQJRUKDVDOUHDG\EUHDFKHGWKHOLPLWVRIVXVWDLQDEOH XVH7KXVWKHUHLVKDUGO\DQ\URRPOHIWIRULQFUHDVHGZDWHUXWLOL]DWLRQ$QH[DPSOHRIVXFKDULYHU EDVLQLVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJXUH7KHILJXUHGHSLFWVWKHFKDQJHVLQZDWHUIORZVREVHUYHGLQWKH ORZHU-RUGDQ5LYHU9DOOH\EHWZHHQDQG&RXUFLHUHWDO7KH0XUUD\±'DUOLQJ 5LYHULQ$XVWUDOLDWKH<HOORZ5LYHULQ&KLQDWKH,QGXVLQ3DNLVWDQDQG,QGLDWKH$PXDQG6\U 'DU\DLQFHQWUDO$VLDWKH1LOH5LYHUDQGWKH&RORUDGR5LYHULQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG0H[LFRDUH RWKHUH[DPSOHVRIFORVHGRUQHDUO\FORVHGEDVLQV0ROGHQ5RFNVWU|PHWDOGUHZ DWWHQWLRQWRWKHH[LVWLQJOLPLWVWRLQFUHDVHGZDWHUXVHDQGLQFUHDVLQJKXPDQLQGXFHGSUHVVXUHRQ IUHVKZDWHUUHVRXUFHVE\LQFOXGLQJIUHVKZDWHUXVHDVRQHRIWKHQLQHSODQHWDU\ERXQGDULHV*LYHQ WKHOLPLWVZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWSUDFWLFHVQHHGWRFKDQJH DQGLPSURYHWRPHHWWKHGHPDQGVRI D FKDQJLQJ ZRUOG ,Q WKH DEVHQFH RI PDMRU LPSURYHPHQWV LQ ODQG DQG ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW WKH DYDLODELOLW\RIZDWHUZLOOEHDPDMRUFRQVWUDLQWIRUIRRGVHFXULW\LQPDQ\FRXQWULHVLQ$VLDDQG $IULFDLQFRPLQJGHFDGHV
)LJXUH/RZHU-RUGDQULYHUEDVLQZDWHUEDODQFH6RXUFH&RXUFLHUHWDO
6XFKLPSURYHPHQWVUHTXLUHZDWHUUHVRXUFHVSODQQLQJLQVWLWXWLRQVDQGRSHUDWLRQDOERGLHVWRWDNH DQDFWLYHUROHLQPDQDJLQJZDWHUE\IRUPXODWLQJDQGLPSOHPHQWLQJZHOOWDUJHWHGLQWHUYHQWLRQVDQG SROLF\GHFLVLRQVLQFOXGLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ+RZHYHUZDWHULQVWLWXWLRQVKDYH\HW QRWUHVSRQGHGZHOOWRWKLVFULWLFDOQHHG2QHRIPDQ\LQGLFDWLRQVRIWKLVODFNRISURSHUDFWLRQLV WKHUHSRUWHGGHFOLQHLQWKHSHUFDSLWDZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\LQYDULRXVZDWHUVWUHVVHGULYHUEDVLQVWKDW DUHRIWHQORFDWHGLQDULGFOLPDWHV81:DWHU0ROGHQ$OFDPRHWDO:DOODFH 9|U|VPDUW\HWDO$ZDUHQHVVRYHUZDWHUVFDUFLW\LVLQFUHDVLQJ7KLVLVHYLGHQWE\ LQFUHDVLQJLQWHUHVWRIODUJHFRUSRUDWHVIXHOHGE\SXEOLFSUHVVXUHWRFXUEWKHLUZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQ 7KH:DWHU)RRWSULQW1HWZRUNKWWSZZZZDWHUIRRWSULQWRUJLVVHWWLQJDVXFFHVVIXOH[DPSOHE\ HQJDJLQJZLWKWKHVHFRUSRUDWHVWRKHOSWKHPTXDQWLI\WKHLUZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQDQGZRUNZLWKWKHP WRZDUGVUHGXFLQJFRQVXPSWLRQV+RHNVWUD
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±DOORZLQJWKHUHTXLUHGJURZWKLQWKHSURYLVLRQ RIIRRGHQHUJ\JRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVXQGHUSLQQLQJVRFLRHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW,WZDVVWDWHGLQ 6WRFNKROPWKDW ³7KURXJKVWURQJHUDQGVPDUWHULQFHQWLYHVIRUZDWHUXVHDQGLQQRYDWLYHJRYHUQDQFHLWLVSRVVLEOH WRJOREDOO\GRXEOHWKHYDOXHIURPHDFKOLWUHRIZDWHUXVHG´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
2YHUYLHZRIH[LVWLQJZDWHUDFFRXQWLQJIUDPHZRUNV
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
)ORZ DFFRXQWLQJ PHWKRGV DUH EDVHG RQ JURXQG PHDVXUHG GDWD RI ULYHU GLVFKDUJH GLYHUVLRQV DOORFDWLRQV DQG DEVWUDFWLRQV 7KH DFFRXQWLQJ XVXDOO\ VWDUWV IURP ZDWHU VWRFNV HJ UHVHUYRLUV IORZVHJGLVFKDUJHDQGIOX[HVHJHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQWKDWH[LVWLQULYHUVDTXLIHUVDQGODNHV LHEOXHZDWHU7KLVFDWHJRU\HQFRPSDVVHVVHYHUDOPDLQDFFRXQWLQJIUDPHZRUNVVXFKDV)$2¶V $TXDVWDW81¶V6(($:DWHUDQGWKH$XVWUDOLDQZDWHUDFFRXQWLQJV\VWHP 7KHJOREDOLQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPRQZDWHUDQGDJULFXOWXUH$TXDVWDWZDVGHYHORSHGE\)$2¶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
7KH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6WDWLVWLFV'LYLVLRQ816'SUHSDUHGDZDWHU DFFRXQWLQJIUDPHZRUN FDOOHG 6\VWHP RI (QYLURQPHQWDO (FRQRPLF $FFRXQWLQJ IRU :DWHU 6(($:DWHU )LJXUH LV D VFKHPDWLFUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHIORZVFDSWXUHGLQ6(($:DWHUDFFRXQWV7KHIUDPHZRUNGHVFULEHV K\GURORJLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF LQIRUPDWLRQ WKURXJK D VHW RI VWDQGDUG WDEOHV DQG KDV DOVR VRPH VXSSOHPHQWDU\WDEOHVWRFRYHUVRFLDODVSHFWV816(($:DWHUGHVFULEHVZDWHUUHVRXUFHV
DV´ZDWHUIRXQGLQIUHVKZDWHUEUDFNLVKVXUIDFHZDWHUDQGJURXQGZDWHUERGLHVZLWKLQWKHQDWLRQDO WHUULWRU\WKDWSURYLGHGLUHFWXVHEHQHILWV«´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
)LJXUH 6FKHPDWLF YLHZ RI WKH IORZV RI LQODQG ZDWHU UHVRXUFH V\VWHPV DQG WKH HFRQRP\ LQ 6(($:DWHUDFFRXQWV81
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
'HSOHWLRQDFFRXQWLQJPHWKRGV
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
7KH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO :DWHU 0DQDJHPHQW ,QVWLWXWH ,:0, GHYHORSHG D :DWHU $FFRXQWLQJ :$ EDVHGRQDZDWHUEDODQFHDSSURDFK,:0,:$WUDQVODWHVZDWHUEDODQFHFRPSRQHQWVLQIORZVDQG RXWIORZVLQWRYDULRXVZDWHUDFFRXQWLQJFDWHJRULHVVXFKDVQHWLQIORZSURFHVVFRQVXPSWLRQQRQ SURFHVVGHSOHWLRQVFRPPLWWHGRXWIORZDQGXQFRPPLWWHGRXWIORZV0ROGHQ0ROGHQDQG 6DNWKLYDGLYHO 0ROGHQ HW DO 7KH IUDPHZRUN SURYLGHV D PHDQV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH RXWSXWSHUXQLWRIZDWHUHIIHFWLYHO\GHSOHWHG
,:0,:$FDQEHDSSOLHGDWDOOVFDOHVDQGUHTXLUHVWKHGHILQLWLRQRIDGRPDLQERXQGHGLQWKUHH GLPHQVLRQVLQVSDFHDQGLQWLPH)RUH[DPSOHDWDULYHUEDVLQVFDOHWKLVZRXOGLQFOXGHWKHODWHUDO EDVLQERXQGDULHVWKHWRSRIWKHFURSFDQRS\DQGWKHERWWRPRIDQDTXLIHUWDNHQRYHUDVSHFLILHG WLPHSHULRG$WILHOGVFDOHWKLVFRXOGEHWKHWRSRIWKHSODQWFDQRS\WRWKHERWWRPRIWKHURRW]RQH ERXQGHG E\ WKH HGJHV RI WKH ILHOG RYHU D JURZLQJ VHDVRQ 7KH WDVN LQ ZDWHU DFFRXQWLQJ LV WR HVWLPDWHWKHIORZVDFURVVWKHERXQGDULHVRIWKHGRPDLQGXULQJWKHVSHFLILHGWLPHSHULRG
)LJXUH *HQHUDOL]HG ZDWHU DFFRXQWLQJ GLDJUDP DSSOLFDEOH WR DQDO\VHV DW EDVLQ DQG RWKHU VFDOHV0ROGHQHWDO
7KUHHPDLQVFDOHVDUHLGHQWLILHGIRUDQDQDO\VLV±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
7KH,:0,:$IUDPHZRUNKDVEHHQDSSOLHGE\,:0,LQVHYHUDOLUULJDWLRQV\VWHPVWXGLHVHJ %KDNUDV\VWHPLQ,QGLD0ROGHQ=KDQJKH,UULJDWLRQ6\VWHPLQ&KLQD/RHYHHWDO 'RQJ HW DO 1LOH 'HOWD 0ROGHQ HW DO (DVW 5DSWLULYHU LQ1HSDO 6KLSDONDU HW DO ,W KDV DOVR EHHQ DSSOLHG DW ULYHU EDVLQ VFDOH HJ .ULVKQD %LJJV HW DO .DUNKHK
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¶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
5HVHDUFKTXHVWLRQVDQGWKHVLVRXWOLQH
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¶WKDYHDQRSWLRQWRDVVHVVWKHLPSDFWRILQWHUYHQWLRQVHJ6(($:DWHU$:$6 DQG$%6ZDWHUDFFRXQWV 6RPHGRQ¶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
ʹ
ȋΪȌȂ
ʹ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±DZDWHU DFFRXQWLQJSURFHGXUHIRUFRPSOH[ULYHUEDVLQVEDVHGRQVDWHOOLWHPHDVXUHPHQWV+\GURO(DUWK6\VW6FL GRLKHVV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
2YHU WKH ODVW \HDUV WKH ZRUOG KDV FKDQJHG IURP D VLWXDWLRQ RI DQ DEXQGDQFH RI ZDWHU WR D VLWXDWLRQRIZDWHUVFDUFLW\2YHUELOOLRQSHRSOHOLYHLQEDVLQVZKHUHZDWHUGHPDQGLVUHDFKLQJ RUKDVH[FHHGHGOLPLWVRIVXVWDLQDEOHXVH*OHLFN0ROGHQ5RFNVWU|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
2XU ZDWHU LQVWLWXWLRQV KDYH EHHQ OHVV HIIHFWLYH LQ PDQDJLQJ ZDWHU LQ WKLV UHODWLYHO\ QHZ HUD RI VFDUFLW\DQGWKLVOHDGVWRDGHFOLQHLQWKHSHUFDSLWDZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\LQYDULRXVZDWHUVWUHVVHG ULYHUEDVLQVWKDWDUHRIWHQORFDWHGLQDULGFOLPDWHV$OFDPRHWDO0ROGHQ81:DWHU YDQGHU=DDJHWDO9RURVPDUW\HWDO:DOODFH:KLOHWKHHPSKDVLVLQ WKHWKFHQWXU\ZDVRQZDWHUUHVRXUFHVGHYHORSPHQWWKHUHQHHGVWREHDVKLIWWRLPSURYHGZDWHU PDQDJHPHQWSUDFWLFHVWRPHHWWKHGHPDQGVRIDFKDQJLQJZRUOGLQWKHVWFHQWXU\&OHDUO\RQH REVWDFOH IRU LPSURYHG ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW LV WKH ODFN RI VWDQGDUG GDWD FROOHFWLRQ SURFHVVHV ,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV GDWD DQG FRPPXQLFDWLRQ WR D GLYHUJLQJ JURXS RI ZDWHU SURIHVVLRQDOV LV JHQHUDOO\ DOVR LQDGHTXDWH 0DQDJHPHQW RI FRPSOH[ ULYHU EDVLQV LQYROYHV K\GURORJLVWV FOLPDWRORJLVWV ZDWHU PDQDJHUV HQJLQHHUV SROLF\ GHFLVLRQ PDNHUV HFRQRPLVWV HQYLURQPHQWDOLVWV DJURQRPLVWV DQWKURSRORJLVWV DQG ODZ\HUV DPRQJ RWKHUV DOO IURP GLIIHUHQW EDFNJURXQGV FXOWXUHV DQG HGXFDWLRQ OHYHOV 2EYLRXVO\ WKLV OHDGV WR PLVFRQFHSWLRQV DQG PLVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQV3HUU\ZKLFKDUHQRWIDYRUDEOHIRULPSURYLQJPDQDJHPHQWRIWKHVFDUFH ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV 7HUPV VXFK DV ³LUULJDWLRQ HIILFLHQF\´ ³ZDWHU XVH HIILFLHQF\´ DQG ³ZDWHU SURGXFWLYLW\´ DUHRIWHQXVHGLQWHUFKDQJHDEO\ ZKLOHWKHLULQWHQGHGSXUSRVHVDUH UDWKHUGLIIHUHQW 7KH WHUP ³ZDWHU XVH´ LV QRW XQDPELJXRXV DQG FDQ IRU LQVWDQFH EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV EHLQJ D ³ZLWKGUDZDO´IURPDZDWHUV\VWHP³VLWHVSHFLILFIORZ´RU³FRQVXPSWLYHXVH´5HGXFWLRQRI³ZDWHU VXSSO\´LVRIWHQFRQIXVHGZLWK³UHGXFWLRQRIFRQVXPSWLYHXVH´6XFKFRQIXVLRQLQWHUPLQRORJ\ FDQ KDYH VHYHUH FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU GRZQVWUHDP ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ DQG PD\ HYHQ OHDG WR H[DFHUEDWLRQRIZDWHUVFDUFLW\HJGH9ULHVHWDO)RUWKLVUHDVRQ6HFNOHUUHPDUNHG WKDWLWLVEHWWHUWRUHIHUWR³UHDOZDWHUVDYLQJV´*URXQGZDWHUDEVWUDFWLRQJURXQGZDWHUGHSOHWLRQ DQGJURXQGZDWHUGUDIWDUHDOVRWHUPVZKLFKDUHFRQIXVHGDQGOHDGLQJWRXQGHUHVWLPDWLRQRIWKH RYHUH[SORLWDWLRQRIDTXLIHUV7KHGHFOLQLQJWUHQGRIDYDLODEOHZDWHUSHUFDSLWDLVRIWHQXVHGEXW UDUHO\GHILQHGWRZKLFKIORZLWUHODWHVWR7KHVDPHKROGVWUXHIRUZDWHUXVHLQWKHDJULFXOWXUDO VHFWRU7KHVHGHILQLWLRQVQHHGPRUHULJRU
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
%ULHIUHYLHZRIZDWHUDFFRXQWLQJIUDPHZRUNV
7KH LPSRUWDQFH RI UHSRUWLQJ RQ ZDWHU KDV PRWLYDWHG VHYHUDO QDWLRQDO DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQVOLNHWKH81)$2,:0,DQGWKH$XVWUDOLDQJRYHUQPHQWWRGHYHORSVWDQGDUGZDWHU DFFRXQWLQJIUDPHZRUNV)RRGDQG$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQL]DWLRQµ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|P5RFNVWU|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
:DWHUDFFRXQWLQJSOXV:$
:LWKGUDZDOV(7DQGUHWXUQIORZ :DWHU$FFRXQWLQJ3OXV:$LVDQHZIUDPHZRUNWKDWXVHVWKH,:0,:$SULQFLSOHVRIWUDFNLQJ ZDWHUGHSOHWLRQVUDWKHUWKDQZLWKGUDZDOV:$DGRSWVWKHVDPHGHILQLWLRQIRUZDWHUGHSOHWLRQDV WKH,:0,:$EXWFRQVLGHUVPRUHGHWDLOVLQWKHSURFHVVHVDQGHVVHQWLDOPHFKDQLVPV,QOLQHZLWK ,:0,:$ZHXVHWKHWHUPGHSOHWLRQKHUHDIWHUEHFDXVHZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQLQQRQDJULFXOWXUDO VHFWRUVLVRIWHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKZLWKGUDZDOV)$2DQGWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RPPLVVLRQRQ
,UULJDWLRQDQG'UDLQDJH,&,'3HUU\DUHXVLQJFRQVXPSWLYHXVHIRUFURS(7'HSOHWLRQLQ :$LQFOXGHV(7DQGIORZWRVLQNV
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ܲ ሺ4LQ6:4LQ*:ሻ െ ܧܶ െ ሺ4RXW6:4RXW*:ሻ ߂ܵ ൌ Ͳ :KHUH3LVSUHFLSLWDWLRQ4LQ6:4LQ*:LVVXUIDFHDQGJURXQGZDWHULQIORZVWRWKHEDVLQ4RXW6: 4RXW*:LVVXUIDFHZDWHUDQGJURXQGZDWHURXWIORZDQGǻ6LVVWRUDJHFKDQJH 6WRUDJHFKDQJHLVIXUWKHUGLYLGHGWR
߂ܵ ൌ ߂ܵI6: ߂ܵI60 ߂ܵI*: ߂ܵ3 :KHUHǻ6I6:ǻ6I*:DQGǻ6I60DUHFKDQJHLQIUHVKZDWHUVWRUDJHRIVXUIDFHZDWHUJURXQGZDWHU DQGVQRZDQGJODFLHUPHOWUHVSHFWLYHO\ǻ63LVFKDQJHLQSROOXWHGZDWHUVWRUDJH $WRQHVLQJOHXQLWLQWKHPDQDJHGZDWHUXVHJURXSZKHUHZLWKGUDZDOVH[LVWWKHZDWHUEDODQFH HTXDWLRQFDQEHGHILQHGDVVHH)LJXUH ܲ ሺ4Z6:4Z*:ሻ െ ሺܧܶݎ݁ܿ (74ሻ െ ሺ456:45*:ሻ ൌ Ͳ :KHUH4Z6:4Z*:LVZLWKGUDZDOVIURPVXUIDFHZDWHUDQGJURXQGZDWHU(7SUHFLVWKH(7IURP SUHFLSLWDWLRQ(74LVWKH³LQFUHPHQWDO(7´DQG456:45*:LVUHWXUQIORZWRVXUIDFHZDWHUDQG JURXQGZDWHU,QFUHPHQWDO(7(74LVUHODWHGWRZLWKGUDZDOVRQO\,WLVWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ ZLWKGUDZDOVDQGUHWXUQIORZVWKDWRULJLQDWHIURPWKHVHZLWKGUDZDOVDQGZDWHUWKDWLVLQFRUSRUDWHG LQWRDSURGXFWHJLQFRUSRUDWLRQRIZDWHULQWRSODQWWLVVXHV(7IURPSUHFLSLWDWLRQ(7SUHFFDQEH GHVFULEHGDV
ܧܶݎ݁ܿ ൌ ܲȂ 45
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x 7KHOLQNEHWZHHQODQGXVHDQG(7LVPDGHH[SOLFLWLQRUGHUWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHLPSDFWRI ODQGXVHFKDQJHVRQH[SORLWDEOHZDWHUUHVRXUFHV x 0DQDJHDEOHDQGQRQPDQDJHDEOHGHSOHWLRQVDUHGHILQHGDQGWKHSURFHVVHVDUHTXDQWLILHG ZKLFK ZLOO VKRZ WKDW ODUJH YROXPHV RI ZDWHU QDWXUDOO\ UHVSRQG WR JHRJUDSKLFDO DQG DWPRVSKHULFSURFHVVHVWKDWFDQQRWEHPDQDJHG
x 6XUIDFH DQG JURXQGZDWHU V\VWHPV DUH GLIIHUHQWLDWHG DV WKH\ KDYH GLIIHUHQW PDQDJHPHQW RSWLRQVDQGOHJDOUHJXODWLRQV
x ,QFUHPHQWDO(7DUHFRPSXWHGIRUGLIIHUHQWODQGXVHFDWHJRULHVDQGZDWHUXVHUJURXSVWR DVVLJQEHQHILWVIURPPDQDJHGZDWHUXVH
x 3DUWLWLRQLQJ RI FRQVXPHG ZDWHU (7 LQWR WUDQVSLUDWLRQ HYDSRUDWLRQ DQG LQWHUFHSWLRQ WR DSSUDLVHEHQHILFLDO(7IRUIRRGDQGHFRV\VWHPVHUYLFHVYVQRQEHQHILFLDO(7
x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
:DWHUVKHHWV 3XUSRVH %RRNNHHSLQJVKHHWV
5HVRXUFH%DVH +\GURORJLFDO PDQDJHDEOH XWLOL]DEOH IORZV ZDWHUVHFXULW\VXVWDLQDELOLW\
$VVHWV OLDELOLWLHV (YDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ %HQHILFLDO QRQEHQHILFLDOIORZV 3URILW ORVV
H[SHQGLWXUHVKHHW 3URGXFWLYLW\ %LRPDVV UHWXUQV FDUERQ VHTXHVWUDWLRQ IRRG
VHFXULW\
3URILW :LWKGUDZDO 0DQDJHPHQWUHJXODWLRQVDOORFDWLRQV &DVKERRN